Pot 1-2 (3-08) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 14, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Lance Honig at (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 8 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 172 million cwt of potatoes in storage March 1, 2008, up 8 percent from last year and 10 percent above March 1, 2006. Potatoes in storage accounted for 43 percent of the 2007 fall storage States' production, up 2 percentage points from last year. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 2.05 million cwt on March 1, 2008, down 7 percent from last year. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Potato disappearance, at 228 million cwt, was down 1 percent from last year but up 4 percent from 2006. Season to date shrink and loss, at 19.7 million cwt, was down 3 percent from the same date in 2007 but 7 percent above 2006. Processors in the 9 major States have used 123 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 3 percent from the same time last year but 8 percent above 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 25.2 million cwt of the total processing, down 10 percent from last year but 11 percent above the same date in 2006. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1998-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1998 1/ : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 1/ : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 374,298 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,272 259,300 226,100 192,600 159,700 121,000 79,050 44,460 2007 : 400,085 270,100 237,500 206,200 171,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 major States. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2005-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2005 : 22,840 29,300 35,970 43,300 50,820 57,830 65,030 77,360 2006 : 27,090 34,070 41,350 48,940 56,650 63,680 71,220 85,630 2007 : 26,230 33,260 40,220 48,570 : ME 2/ : 2005 : 1,365 1,880 2,485 3,090 3,800 4,450 5,130 6,825 2006 : 1,755 2,360 2,910 3,465 4,185 4,810 5,470 7,560 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 : WA & OR-Oth : 2005 : 30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 69,360 78,550 2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,410 77,355 2007 : 28,995 34,675 39,700 47,390 : Other Sts 3/ : 2005 : 11,055 14,070 17,005 19,895 22,520 25,270 27,740 35,535 2006 : 14,270 17,695 21,290 24,545 28,040 31,370 34,830 43,315 2007 4/ : 15,040 17,560 20,890 23,955 : Total : 2005 : 65,570 81,145 96,005 114,575 132,460 149,405 167,260 198,270 2006 : 74,095 91,185 107,740 126,880 145,565 163,030 181,930 213,860 2007 4/ : 71,965 87,665 103,625 123,355 : Dehydrated 5/: 2005 : 11,920 15,655 19,225 22,765 26,605 30,065 34,130 41,625 2006 : 14,590 19,250 23,635 27,885 32,210 36,480 40,915 49,370 2007 : 12,660 16,680 20,965 25,185 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ February revised. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, March 1, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2006 : Crop of 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : of : : 2007 : Prod : : 2008 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,870 1,200 31 4,223 1,100 26 CO : 22,686 11,300 50 20,981 9,500 45 ID : 128,915 59,500 46 131,650 63,000 48 ME : 17,980 9,800 55 16,530 8,000 48 MI : 14,190 3,300 23 14,700 4,600 31 MN : 20,400 8,300 41 20,680 8,500 41 MT : 3,518 3,100 88 3,696 3,300 89 NE : 8,730 3,400 39 8,051 3,000 37 NY : 5,700 1,000 18 5,216 700 13 ND : 25,480 9,900 39 23,660 8,000 34 OR : 18,533 9,700 52 20,238 11,600 57 WA : 89,900 28,500 32 102,300 40,000 39 WI : 29,370 10,700 36 28,160 10,500 37 : 13 States : 389,272 159,700 41 400,085 171,800 43 : Klamath Basin 2/: 2,200 2,050 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2007 totaled 26.4 million cwt. 2/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 72.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 27.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2002-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-----------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Production : : Production : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,768 2005 : 382,743 351,083 91.7 31,660 8.3 25,659 2006 : 398,921 365,863 91.7 33,058 8.3 26,437 2007 : 409,082 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2004-2007 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production:Mar 1 1/: For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : :2004: 3,648 1,500 213 1 292 3,355 :2005: 3,306 900 249 331 2,975 :2006: 3,870 1,200 210 480 3,390 :2007: 4,223 1,100 CO : : :2004: 23,791 11,900 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 :2005: 22,910 11,200 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 :2006: 22,686 11,300 1,480 1,140 2,056 19,490 :2007: 20,981 9,500 ID : : :2004: 131,970 64,000 7,150 1,250 10,902 119,818 :2005: 118,288 56,000 7,370 1,230 7,800 109,258 :2006: 128,915 59,500 7,875 1,188 8,200 119,527 :2007: 131,650 63,000 ME : : :2004: 19,065 9,400 1,231 190 4,900 13,975 :2005: 15,455 8,400 1,264 242 1,183 14,030 :2006: 17,980 9,800 1,236 228 1,482 16,270 :2007: 16,530 8,000 MI : : :2004: 13,650 3,600 860 194 1,656 11,800 :2005: 13,910 3,100 1,044 182 1,728 12,000 :2006: 14,190 3,300 961 180 1,800 12,210 :2007: 14,700 4,600 MN : : :2004: 18,920 8,800 837 100 1,750 17,070 :2005: 17,630 7,100 1,040 140 1,600 15,890 :2006: 20,400 8,300 1,190 250 1,700 18,450 :2007: 20,680 8,500 MT : : :2004: 3,551 2,400 257 156 276 3,119 :2005: 3,445 3,200 244 156 210 3,079 :2006: 3,518 3,100 270 180 130 3,208 :2007: 3,696 3,300 NE : : :2004: 9,288 519 212 906 8,170 :2005: 8,245 3,300 515 231 834 7,180 :2006: 8,730 3,400 521 200 775 7,755 :2007: 8,051 3,000 NY : : :2004: 5,184 700 451 100 513 4,571 :2005: 5,226 1,200 453 100 491 4,635 :2006: 5,700 1,000 460 100 480 5,120 :2007: 5,216 700 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2004-2007 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production:Mar 1 1/: For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : :2004: 26,765 13,100 1,794 240 2,825 23,700 :2005: 20,500 7,200 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 :2006: 25,480 9,900 1,853 240 2,290 22,950 :2007: 23,660 8,000 OH 2/ : : :2004: 1,080 73 6 33 1,041 :2005: :2006: :2007: OR : : :2004: 19,775 9,000 955 241 1,264 18,270 :2005: 22,023 11,500 837 255 1,392 20,376 :2006: 18,533 9,700 880 260 1,020 17,253 :2007: 20,238 11,600 PA 2/ : : :2004: 2,640 700 253 39 216 2,385 :2005: :2006: :2007: WA : : :2004: 93,810 29,000 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 :2005: 95,480 32,500 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 :2006: 89,900 28,500 4,290 240 5,500 84,160 :2007: 102,300 40,000 WI : : :2004: 30,450 10,700 1,360 260 1,985 28,205 :2005: 27,880 9,900 1,452 300 1,380 26,200 :2006: 29,370 10,700 1,430 245 1,925 27,200 :2007: 28,160 10,500 Other Sts : : :2004: 3,220 :2005: :2006: :2007: 13 States 3/ : : :2004: 403,587 168,020 21,316 4,529 35,404 363,654 :2005: 374,298 155,500 21,766 4,516 26,409 343,373 :2006: 389,272 159,700 22,656 4,451 27,838 356,983 :2007: 400,085 171,800 Fall States : : :2004: 410,253 21,593 4,549 35,923 369,781 :2005: 382,743 22,415 4,545 27,115 351,083 :2006: 398,921 23,337 4,482 28,576 365,863 :2007: 409,082 Klamath Basin 4/: : :2004: :2005: :2006: 2,200 :2007: 2,050 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts" to avoid disclosure of individual operations. 2/ Stock estimates discontinued in crop year 2005. 3/ 15 storage States in crop year 2004. 4/ Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States and United States, 2004-2006 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State:Marketing:Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 : 2006 : 9 15 11 15 10 11 12 9 5 3 CO : : : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 : 2006 : 6 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 7 ID : : : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 : 2006 : 3 11 12 8 7 8 8 10 10 9 7 7 ME : : : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 : 2006 : 8 7 8 9 9 8 13 13 12 7 6 MI : : : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 : 2006 : 1 9 12 13 12 12 12 7 11 7 4 MN : : : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 : 2006 : 5 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 11 NY : : : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 : 2006 : 4 15 14 12 14 16 7 10 4 4 ND : : : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 : 2006 : 3 27 11 6 6 11 5 7 10 9 4 1 OR : : : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 : 2006 : 12 10 13 5 7 7 7 10 10 8 7 4 PA 1/: : : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 : 2005 : : 2006 : WA : : : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 : 2006 : 15 11 25 7 6 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : 2006 : 1 6 15 10 10 10 9 9 11 10 6 3 : : US : : : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 : 2006 : 7 12 14 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Farm marketing estimates discontinued in 2005. March Potato Stocks Up 8 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 172 million cwt of potatoes in storage March 1, 2008, up 8 percent from last year and 10 percent above March 1, 2006. Potatoes in storage accounted for 43 percent of the 2007 fall storage States' production, up 2 percentage points from last year. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 2.05 million cwt on March 1, 2008, 7 percent lower than last year. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Disappearance of 228 million cwt from the start of harvest to March 1 was down 1 percent from last year but up 4 percent from 2006. Shrink and loss, at 19.7 million cwt, was down 3 percent from the previous year but 7 percent above the same date in 2006. Processors have used 123 million cwt of 2007 crop potatoes so far this season, down 3 percent from a year ago but 8 percent above 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon total processing decreased 1 percent from a year ago, as did Maine's total processing. Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing was down 5 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage was 25.2 million cwt of the total processing, down 10 percent from last year but 11 percent above the same date in 2006. Western States held 129 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, up 13 percent from last year and 11 percent above 2006. Idaho's potato stocks were up 6 percent from last year; Washington's potato sheds held 40 percent more than last year; and Oregon's stocks increased 20 percent from last season. Montana's potato sheds held 6 percent more stocks than last year. California's and Colorado's potato stocks decreased 8 and 16 percent, respectively, from last year. Central States accounted for 34.6 million cwt of potato stocks on March 1, down 3 percent from last year but 13 percent above the same date in 2006. Wisconsin's potato stocks were down 2 percent from last year; North Dakotas's sheds held 19 percent less; and potato stocks in Nebraska were 12 percent below last season. Minnesota's potato stocks increased 2 percent from the same date in 2007 and Michigan's potato sheds held 39 percent more than a year ago. Eastern States stored 8.70 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, down 19 percent from last year and 9 percent below March 1, 2006. Maine's potato sheds held 18 percent less than last year, while New York's potato stocks declined 30 percent from a year ago. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2004-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2004 1/ : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 26.4 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 27.8 2007 : 13.9 16.0 18.0 19.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 fall storage States. Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 172 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.5 percent, or approximately 6.01 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.1 percent, or approximately 10.4 million cwt. The 20-year (1987-2006) record of differences between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 3.89 million cwt, ranging from 9.28 million cwt above the final to 13.1 million cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 13 years and above 7 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March 1 Stocks, United States, 1997-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 170,325 96.8 175,870 1998 : 174,100 100.3 173,650 1999 : 170,050 100.3 169,620 2000 : 198,320 100.3 197,670 2001 : 167,870 105.9 158,590 2002 : 163,900 99.2 165,210 2003 : 166,690 100.2 166,280 2004 : 168,420 100.2 168,020 2005 : 153,700 98.8 155,500 2006 : 153,200 95.9 159,700 2007 : 171,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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