HDR1012000110080214961500POTATO STOCKS HDR2012000110080214961500PSTK HIGHLIGHTS Released February 14, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. Potato Stocks 8 Percent Below Last Year February 1, 1996 potato stocks totaled 185 million cwt, down 8 percent from a year earlier and 1 percent below two years ago. Disappearance was 207 million cwt, slightly below a year ago but 10 percent above two years ago. Processing accounted for 103 million cwt through January, 4 percent more than last year and 15 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss of 22.9 million cwt was down 3 percent from last year. Pot 1-2 (2-96) HDR2012000110080214961500FALL POTATOES: 15 MJ STS, 86-95 Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1986-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1986 : 307,928 209,435 180,915 154,545 128,720 95,090 59,790 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 409,009 271,890 237,560 201,870 168,770 128,825 87,500 1995 : 391,816 252,080 218,970 184,755 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR2012000110080214961500POTATOES:QUANTITY USD FOR PROCSNG,8 STS 93-95 Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1993-95 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1993 : 24,090 30,540 37,150 44,720 53,070 61,440 85,780 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 90,300 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 : ME 2/ : 1993 : 1,350 1,720 2,210 2,505 2,890 3,275 4,555 1994 : 1,505 1,840 2,265 2,540 2,985 3,330 4,770 1995 : 1,335 1,685 2,200 : WA & OR-Other : 1993 : 28,260 33,350 39,010 45,020 51,290 57,180 70,690 1994 : 28,670 33,480 39,120 46,070 52,940 59,540 76,780 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1993 : 7,605 9,515 11,605 13,720 16,080 18,705 25,690 1994 : 9,725 13,110 15,630 18,260 21,115 24,060 32,260 1995 : 12,360 15,330 18,415 : Total : 1993 : 61,305 75,125 89,975 105,965 123,330 140,600 186,715 1994 : 66,520 82,660 99,345 116,760 135,030 153,610 204,110 1995 : 71,005 87,225 103,335 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. HDR2012000110080214961500POTATOES:PROD & STKS ON FEB 1, 95-96 Potatoes: Production and Stocks on February 1, 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1994 : Crop of 1995 :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : of : : 1995 : Prod : : 1996 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent : CA : 5,600 3,200 57 5,330 2,600 49 CO : 25,795 13,700 53 23,808 13,400 56 ID : 138,801 78,000 56 131,274 72,500 55 ME : 18,375 9,400 51 17,160 10,400 61 MI : 12,180 5,000 41 16,500 6,000 36 MN : 17,755 9,400 53 20,790 10,200 49 MT : 3,200 2,860 89 2,940 2,650 90 NE : 3,996 1,780 45 3,680 1,880 51 NY : 7,805 1,800 23 7,695 2,250 29 ND : 28,200 12,500 44 25,410 11,500 45 OH : 1,348 130 10 1,404 75 5 OR : 27,514 15,200 55 23,760 11,700 49 PA : 3,780 1,100 29 4,080 1,200 29 WA : 88,920 37,500 42 80,850 28,500 35 WI : 25,740 10,300 40 27,135 9,900 36 : Total 15 State : 409,009 201,870 49 391,816 184,755 47 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR2012000110080214961500FALL POTATOES:STKS BY TYP AS % OF TL STKS Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, February 1, 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : Reds : Whites : Russets :---------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 4 6 96 94 ID : 5 10 95 90 ME : 1 3 81 66 18 31 MI : 75 75 25 25 MN : 12 11 16 18 72 71 NY : 5 5 93 93 2 2 ND : 12 16 44 29 44 55 OR : 1 1 3 99 96 PA : 3 3 97 97 WA : 1 3 100 96 WI : 2 2 17 26 81 72 : 11 State Avg. : 2 3 14 17 84 80 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR2012000110080214961500RELIAB. OF FEB 1 STKS EST.& FALL POT STK Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.4 percent. This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 185 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.4 percent or approximately 6.3 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.9 percent or approximately 10.9 million cwt. The 10-year 1986-95 record of the differences between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.0 million cwt, ranging from 0.2 million to 14.2 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February Stocks, United States, 1985-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1985 : 169,810 99.0 171,510 1986 : 150,640 97.5 154,545 1987 : 167,110 99.9 167,325 1988 : 144,625 95.7 151,050 1989 : 143,150 99.2 144,290 1990 : 154,310 94.8 162,850 1991 : 178,965 100.3 178,515 1992 : 170,385 92.3 184,560 1993 : 178,070 95.7 186,090 1994 : 196,005 97.1 201,870 1995 : 184,755 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. HDR2012000110080214961500PSTK NARRATIVE,NXT RLSE DATE&EEO STMNT Potato Stocks Down 8 Percent The 15 major potato States held 185 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 1996, down 8 percent from a year earlier and 1 percent below 1994. Storage accounted for 47 percent of 1995 fall production down two points from last year. Stocks by type were 3 percent red, 17 percent white, and 80 percent russets with fewer russets and more whites and reds than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to February 1 was 207 million cwt of potatoes, down slightly from the same period a year earlier. Disappearance in January was 34.2 million cwt, down 4 percent from last year but 8 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss to date was estimated at 22.9 million cwt, down 3 percent from last year. Processing swelled 4 percent to 103 million cwt so far this season and was 15 percent above two years ago. In January, processors claimed 16.1 million cwt of potatoes, down 3 percent from a year ago but 8 percent above two years ago. Eastern States stored 13.9 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 1996, up 13 percent from a year ago and 7 percent above 1994. Pennsylvania's stocks were up 9 percent. Maine's holdings were up 11 percent, while New York rose 25 percent. Central States accounted for 39.6 million cwt of potato stocks this month, up 1 percent from 1995 and 22 percent above 1994. Minnesota's stocks gained 9 percent, including potatoes from former summer areas that were not counted last year. Michigan's stocks jumped 20 percent, also including some from former summer areas. North Dakota's stocks were off 8 percent and Wisconsin slipped 4 percent. Nebraska's stocks increased 6 percent as Ohio's storage shrank 42 percent. Western States held 131 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, 1996, off 13 percent from a year ago and 7 percent below two years ago. Each of the Western storage States are below a year ago. Idaho is down 7 percent, Oregon fell 23 percent, and Washington dropped 24 percent. Colorado's stocks slipped 2 percent below last year. These four States account for 68 percent of U. S. Potato stocks and are down 13 percent from last year. California stored 19 percent fewer potatoes than a year earlier and Montana dropped 7 percent. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on March 14, 1996. 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