Pot 1-2 (6-07) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 14, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 7 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 38.8 million cwt of potatoes in storage June 1, 2007, down 7 percent from last year and 25 percent below June 1, 2005, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 10 percent of the 2006 fall storage States' production, down 1 percentage point from last year. Potato disappearance, at 343 million cwt, is up 3 percent from last year. Season to date shrink and loss, at 25.4 million cwt, is up 7 percent from last year. Processors in the 9 major States have used 180 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 8 percent from a year ago and 4 percent above 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 38.6 million cwt of the total processing, up 13 percent from last year and less then 1 percent above the same date in 2005. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1997-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 2/ : 374,298 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 2/ : 382,283 252,200 220,000 187,800 153,200 113,600 73,200 38,830 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. 2/ 13 major States. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2004-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2004 : 24,360 30,840 36,820 44,610 51,000 58,090 65,800 84,600 2005 : 22,840 29,300 35,970 43,300 50,820 57,830 65,030 77,360 2006 : 26,130 32,810 40,100 47,730 55,380 62,470 70,000 : ME 2/ : 2004 : 1,540 1,970 2,600 3,135 3,700 4,340 4,910 6,590 2005 : 1,365 1,880 2,485 3,090 3,800 4,450 5,130 6,825 2006 : 1,755 2,360 2,910 3,465 4,190 4,820 5,485 : WA & OR-Oth : 2004 : 32,305 38,130 43,570 50,730 57,140 63,855 71,355 78,680 2005 : 30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 69,360 78,550 2006 3/ : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,415 : Other Sts 4/ : 2004 : 12,490 15,000 17,965 20,910 24,150 27,480 30,945 41,175 2005 : 11,055 14,070 17,005 19,895 22,520 25,270 27,740 35,535 2006 3/ : 13,465 16,905 20,450 23,820 27,815 30,130 33,945 : Total : 2004 : 70,695 85,940 100,955 119,385 135,990 153,765 173,010 211,045 2005 : 65,570 81,145 96,005 114,575 132,460 149,405 167,260 198,270 2006 3/ : 72,330 89,135 105,650 124,945 144,075 160,590 179,845 : Dehydrated 5/: 2004 : 14,525 18,540 21,875 25,970 30,020 33,685 38,505 47,810 2005 : 11,920 15,655 19,225 22,765 26,605 30,065 34,130 41,625 2006 3/ : 12,860 17,130 21,270 25,550 30,180 33,895 38,630 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ May revised. 4/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on June 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2005 : Crop of 2006 :------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Jun 1, : of : Prod : Jun 1, : of : : 2006 2/ : Prod : : 2007 2/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,306 260 8 3,783 290 8 CO : 22,910 3,300 14 22,686 3,700 16 ID : 118,288 18,500 16 121,820 15,000 12 ME : 15,455 2,500 16 18,270 3,100 17 MI : 13,910 14,190 MN : 17,630 2,000 11 20,400 2,700 13 MT : 3,445 3,518 NE : 8,245 8,633 NY : 5,226 5,700 ND : 20,500 1,300 6 25,480 2,100 8 OR : 22,023 2,300 10 18,533 2,300 12 WA : 95,480 9,400 10 89,900 7,000 8 WI : 27,880 1,300 5 29,370 1,800 6 : Other Sts : 700 840 : 13 Sts : 374,298 41,560 11 382,283 38,830 10 : Klamath Basin 3/4/: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2006 totaled 25.6 million cwt. 2/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts". 3/ Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. 4/ June 2007 is not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2001-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-----------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Production : : Production : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2001 : 393,631 358,812 91.2 34,819 8.8 28,625 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,768 2005 : 382,743 351,083 91.7 31,660 8.3 25,628 2006 : 391,978 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, June 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2003-2006 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: Jun 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2003 : 3,528 167 1 343 3,184 : 2004 : 3,648 213 1 292 3,355 : 2005 : 3,306 260 226 331 2,975 : 2006 : 3,783 290 CO : : : 2003 : 23,652 2,600 1,625 1,410 2,507 19,735 : 2004 : 23,791 3,600 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 : 2005 : 22,910 3,300 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 : 2006 : 22,686 3,700 ID : : : 2003 : 123,180 19,500 7,810 1,463 8,900 112,817 : 2004 : 131,970 24,000 7,150 1,250 10,902 119,818 : 2005 : 118,288 18,500 7,260 1,230 7,800 109,258 : 2006 : 121,820 15,000 ME : : : 2003 : 17,030 2,300 1,245 215 2,430 14,385 : 2004 : 19,065 2,900 1,231 190 4,900 13,975 : 2005 : 15,455 2,500 1,274 242 1,183 14,030 : 2006 : 18,270 3,100 MI : : : 2003 : 15,015 1,060 265 1,680 13,070 : 2004 : 13,650 860 194 1,656 11,800 : 2005 : 13,910 1,056 182 1,728 12,000 : 2006 : 14,190 MN : : : 2003 : 22,330 3,500 1,060 130 1,800 20,400 : 2004 : 18,920 3,500 837 100 1,750 17,070 : 2005 : 17,630 2,000 1,061 140 1,600 15,890 : 2006 : 20,400 2,700 MT : : : 2003 : 3,339 268 160 270 2,909 : 2004 : 3,551 257 156 276 3,119 : 2005 : 3,445 242 156 210 3,079 : 2006 : 3,518 NE : : : 2003 : 9,744 616 194 840 8,710 : 2004 : 9,288 519 212 906 8,170 : 2005 : 8,245 515 231 834 7,180 : 2006 : 8,633 NY : : : 2003 : 6,510 440 100 520 5,890 : 2004 : 5,184 451 100 513 4,571 : 2005 : 5,226 453 100 491 4,635 : 2006 : 5,700 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, June 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2003-2006 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production:Jun 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2003 : 27,440 5,000 1,995 390 3,700 23,350 : 2004 : 26,765 4,800 1,794 240 2,825 23,700 : 2005 : 20,500 1,300 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 : 2006 : 25,480 2,100 OH 2/ : : : 2003 : 1,097 76 6 40 1,051 : 2004 : 1,080 73 6 33 1,041 : 2005 : : 2006 : OR : : : 2003 : 20,991 2,900 883 275 1,290 19,426 : 2004 : 19,775 2,100 955 241 1,264 18,270 : 2005 : 22,023 2,300 837 255 1,392 20,376 : 2006 : 18,533 2,300 PA 2/ : : : 2003 : 3,375 228 42 287 3,046 : 2004 : 2,640 253 39 216 2,385 : 2005 : : 2006 : WA : : : 2003 : 93,150 7,000 4,000 280 5,600 87,270 : 2004 : 93,810 8,000 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 : 2005 : 95,480 9,400 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 : 2006 : 89,900 7,000 WI : : : 2003 : 32,800 1,500 1,562 300 2,750 29,750 : 2004 : 30,450 1,600 1,360 260 1,985 28,205 : 2005 : 27,880 1,300 1,474 300 1,380 26,200 : 2006 : 29,370 1,800 Other Sts : : : 2003 : 1,720 : 2004 : 1,200 : 2005 : 700 : 2006 : 840 15 Sts 3/ : : : 2003 : 403,181 46,020 23,035 5,231 32,957 364,993 : 2004 : 403,587 51,700 21,316 4,529 35,404 363,654 : 2005 : 374,298 41,560 21,696 4,516 26,409 343,373 : 2006 : 382,283 38,830 Fall Sts : : : 2003 : 410,588 23,387 5,254 33,579 371,755 : 2004 : 410,253 21,593 4,549 35,923 369,781 : 2005 : 382,743 22,338 4,545 27,115 351,083 : 2006 : 391,978 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts" to avoid disclosure of individual operations. 2/ Stock estimates discontinued in crop year 2005. 3/ 13 storage States starting in crop year 2005. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2003-2005 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2003 : 13 12 15 14 9 8 10 7 12 : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 CO : : : 2003 : 6 8 9 10 11 9 12 14 8 7 6 : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 ID : : : 2003 : 4 8 10 11 8 7 8 10 11 11 6 6 : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 ME : : : 2003 : 1 5 11 8 9 10 10 11 15 10 6 4 : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 MI : : : 2003 : 1 7 8 11 11 11 10 8 13 12 8 : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 MN : : : 2003 : 9 10 10 9 6 5 6 9 10 9 9 8 : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 NY : : : 2003 : 1 8 29 20 17 8 7 6 4 : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 ND : : : 2003 : 23 10 6 7 6 9 7 11 10 9 2 : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 OR : : : 2003 : 10 9 19 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 5 3 : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 PA 1/ : : : 2003 : 15 18 14 11 10 10 9 6 5 2 : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 : 2005 : WA : : : 2003 : 16 12 22 7 6 5 7 6 6 7 5 1 : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 WI : : : 2003 : 1 6 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 9 7 2 : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : : US : : : 2003 : 7 10 14 10 8 7 8 9 10 9 5 3 : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Farm marketing estimates discontinued in 2005. June Potato Stocks Down 7 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 38.8 million cwt of potatoes in storage June 1, 2007, down 7 percent from last year and 25 percent below June 1, 2005, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 10 percent of the 2006 fall storage States' production, down 1 percentage point from last year. Disappearance of 343 million cwt from the start of harvest to June 1, is up 3 percent from last year. Shrink and loss, at 25.4 million cwt, is up 7 percent from the previous year. Processors have used 180 million cwt of 2006 crop potatoes so far this season, up 8 percent from a year ago and 4 percent above 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon total processing increased 8 percent from a year ago, Maine's total processing was 7 percent above the same date in 2006, and Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing was up 2 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage accounts for 38.6 million cwt of the total processing, up 13 percent from last year and less then 1 percent above the same date in 2005. Idaho's potato stocks are down 19 percent from last year, while sheds in Washington held 26 percent less than last year. Colorado's potato stocks increased 12 percent from last year, Maine's sheds held 24 percent more, and stocks in Minnesota are up 35 percent. Potato sheds in North Dakota held 62 percent more than last season, while potato stocks in Wisconsin increased 38 percent, and California's stocks are up 12 percent from last year. Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, and New York's potato sheds combined held 20 percent more than on the same date in 2006. Oregon's potato stocks are unchanged from last year. Comparisons by region are not made in this narrative to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2003-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 :Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2003 : 15.0 17.4 20.5 22.6 25.4 27.5 29.9 33.0 2004 : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 1/ : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 26.4 2006 1/ : 13.5 16.1 18.2 20.1 21.9 23.7 25.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 13 fall storage States. Reliability of June 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the June 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the June 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 8-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 stocks estimate is 7.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 38.8 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 7.3 percent or approximately 2.8 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 12.7 percent or approximately 4.9 million cwt. The 8-year (1998-2004) record of differences between the June 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 2.0 million cwt, ranging from 8.5 million cwt above the final to 1.6 million cwt below the final. During the 8-year period, the June 1 estimate has been above the final estimate 4 years and below 4 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final June 1 Stocks, United States, 1998-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 51,390 102.2 50,270 1999 : 46,670 98.8 47,220 2000 : 63,160 103.1 61,270 2001 : 51,450 119.7 42,990 2002 : 45,720 99.7 45,880 2003 : 47,410 103.0 46,020 2004 : 51,000 98.6 51,700 2005 : 39,960 96.2 41,560 2006 : 38,830 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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