Pot 1-2 (1-01) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 16, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. January Potato Stocks Record High, Up 14 Percent The 15 major potato States held a record high 273 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 2001, up 14 percent from last year and 4 percent above the previous record set in January 1997. Potatoes in storage accounted for 59 percent of the 2000 fall storage States' production, up 2 percentage points from a year ago. This year's storage held more russets but fewer reds and round whites than a year earlier. Disappearance, at a record high 189 million cwt, is up 5 percent from last year and 4 percent above the previous record set during the 1996 season. Also, potatoes used for processing to January 1 was a record high 97.1 million cwt, up 5 percent from last year and 2 percent above the previous record set during the 1996 season for comparable States. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1991-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 461,827 309,520 272,960 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 1997-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 2/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal: 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 76,410 92,860 1999 : 27,970 34,490 40,790 49,220 57,820 66,080 74,110 88,210 2000 : 29,290 35,720 : ME 3/ : 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,430 1,935 2,530 2,985 3,595 4,180 4,705 5,945 1999 : 1,270 1,700 2,385 3,070 3,765 4,560 5,150 6,670 2000 : 1,845 2,475 : WA & OR-Oth: 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,630 38,890 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 74,190 83,730 1999 : 33,320 39,620 45,500 53,350 61,080 67,230 74,840 83,210 2000 : 34,770 40,970 : Oth Sts 4/ : 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,570 14,465 18,030 20,850 24,850 28,190 31,365 39,865 1999 : 12,455 15,035 17,950 20,855 24,305 27,220 30,410 36,435 2000 : 12,650 17,890 : Total : 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 74,140 89,990 108,880 128,335 149,415 168,100 186,670 222,400 1999 : 75,015 90,845 106,625 126,495 146,970 165,090 184,510 214,525 2000 : 78,555 97,055 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, and WI. 2/ Data not available prior to 1998. 3/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 4/ MN, ND, NV, SD, and WI in 2000. MI, MN, ND, and WI in 1997-1999. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on January 1, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1999 : Crop of 2000 :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Jan % : Prod : Jan 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : of : : 2000 : Prod : : 2000 : 2001 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent -------- 1,000 Cwt -------- Percent : CA : 4,005 2,700 67 3,741 2,700 2,100 56 CO : 25,762 17,300 67 27,972 20,300 17,700 63 ID : 133,330 86,000 65 152,320 110,500 100,000 66 ME : 17,813 13,000 73 17,920 14,100 12,500 70 MI : 14,963 7,100 47 14,963 8,700 6,900 46 MN : 18,020 9,000 50 21,240 14,200 13,000 61 MT : 3,325 3,100 93 3,503 3,350 3,250 93 NE : 8,904 4,320 49 10,127 6,450 5,500 54 NY : 6,758 2,500 37 5,964 2,700 1,900 32 ND : 26,400 13,800 52 26,950 18,500 15,800 59 OH : 987 190 19 1,134 320 210 19 OR : 28,020 20,500 73 30,683 25,000 23,000 75 PA : 3,080 1,500 49 3,510 1,700 1,100 31 WA : 95,200 41,000 43 108,000 61,000 54,000 50 WI : 34,000 17,900 53 33,800 20,000 16,000 47 : 15 States : 420,567 239,910 57 461,827 309,520 272,960 59 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, January 1, 2000-2001 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan : Dec :Jan : Jan : Dec :Jan : Jan : Dec :Jan : Jan : Dec :Jan :2000 :2000 :2001:2000 :2000 :2001:2000 :2000 :2001:2000 :2000 :2001 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 4 5 5 2 2 2 94 93 93 ID : 5 6 6 95 94 94 ME : 3 4 4 48 46 47 10 3 2 39 47 47 MI : 2 2 2 89 86 87 9 12 11 MN : 4 13 11 5 4 4 1 91 82 85 NY : 5 5 5 93 90 90 2 5 5 ND : 11 12 12 21 15 15 6 6 5 62 67 68 OR : 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 95 97 96 PA : 3 3 3 97 97 97 WA : 1 1 1 1 4 6 4 95 92 95 WI : 2 2 2 25 37 23 73 61 75 : 11 St Avg : 2 3 2 11 10 8 4 4 4 83 83 86 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1997-2000 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1997: 4,200 2,300 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 2,400 157 29 720 2,959 : 1999: 4,005 2,700 179 17 383 3,605 : 2000: 3,741 2,100 CO : : : 1997: 24,993 17,000 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 16,500 1,930 1,615 2,615 21,130 : 1999: 25,762 17,300 1,971 1,705 2,967 21,090 : 2000: 27,972 17,700 ID : : : 1997: 140,314 91,500 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 138,000 89,000 8,300 1,280 9,756 126,964 : 1999: 133,330 86,000 8,700 1,150 9,300 122,880 : 2000: 152,320 100,000 ME : : : 1997: 19,080 14,100 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 12,500 1,430 360 1,740 15,960 : 1999: 17,813 13,000 1,408 330 1,850 15,633 : 2000: 17,920 12,500 MI : : : 1997: 14,250 7,000 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,648 7,500 888 200 1,348 13,100 : 1999: 14,963 7,100 1,005 213 1,300 13,450 : 2000: 14,963 6,900 MN : : : 1997: 20,440 12,000 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 12,000 1,400 254 1,440 19,476 : 1999: 18,020 9,000 1,254 170 1,980 15,870 : 2000: 21,240 13,000 MT : : : 1997: 3,328 3,080 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 2,980 253 145 265 2,770 : 1999: 3,325 3,100 288 151 213 2,961 : 2000: 3,503 3,250 NE : : : 1997: 7,761 4,300 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 3,900 469 166 881 7,128 : 1999: 8,904 4,320 598 209 742 7,953 : 2000: 10,127 5,500 NY : : : 1997: 7,150 2,500 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 2,300 572 110 330 6,850 : 1999: 6,758 2,500 484 95 323 6,340 : 2000: 5,964 1,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1997-2000 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1997: 22,000 13,800 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 17,500 2,178 395 2,840 25,435 : 1999: 26,400 13,800 2,232 340 4,600 21,460 : 2000: 26,950 15,800 OH : : : 1997: 1,170 170 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 150 100 8 37 1,155 : 1999: 987 190 84 6 60 921 : 2000: 1,134 210 OR : : : 1997: 27,319 19,000 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 17,500 1,334 195 2,206 23,828 : 1999: 28,020 20,500 1,368 239 1,607 26,174 : 2000: 30,683 23,000 PA : : : 1997: 3,173 1,500 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 1,500 261 50 252 3,058 : 1999: 3,080 1,500 270 31 172 2,877 : 2000: 3,510 1,100 WA : : : 1997: 88,160 41,500 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 43,500 4,080 300 6,500 86,425 : 1999: 95,200 41,000 4,200 300 6,500 88,400 : 2000: 108,000 54,000 WI : : : 1997: 30,175 16,800 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 17,000 1,720 265 2,360 28,270 : 1999: 34,000 17,900 1,720 310 1,420 32,270 : 2000: 33,800 16,000 15 Sts : : : 1997: 413,513 246,550 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 423,170 246,230 25,072 5,372 33,290 384,508 : 1999: 420,567 239,910 25,761 5,266 33,417 381,884 : 2000: 461,827 272,960 Fall St: : : 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 432,737 25,657 5,584 34,231 392,922 : 1999: 429,847 26,355 5,377 34,260 390,210 : 2000: 470,504 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1997-1999 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1997 : : 1998 : 13 12 13 11 10 12 10 8 7 4 : 1999 : 5 12 14 10 12 9 10 10 11 7 CO : : : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 : 1998 : 5 8 9 12 10 10 12 11 10 9 4 : 1999 : 4 7 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 6 ID : : : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 : 1998 : 6 11 20 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 6 6 : 1999 : 3 15 18 6 6 5 7 9 10 9 6 6 ME : : : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 : 1998 : 1 7 9 9 9 10 11 14 12 9 9 : 1999 : 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 16 11 9 MI : : : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 : 1998 : 3 8 9 9 9 12 14 9 12 10 5 : 1999 : 3 7 8 9 15 12 9 9 9 11 6 2 MN : : : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 : 1998 : 11 16 14 10 5 7 6 8 9 6 8 : 1999 : 8 12 13 11 8 8 7 9 8 6 5 5 NY : : : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 : 1998 : 7 16 16 16 15 11 8 6 4 1 : 1999 : 4 21 18 11 9 10 8 9 10 ND : : : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 : 1998 : 3 13 14 10 10 8 7 7 9 10 6 3 : 1999 : 2 13 20 7 10 12 7 7 8 7 6 1 OR : : : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 : 1998 : 2 12 15 27 8 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 2 : 1999 : 2 13 10 21 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 3 2 PA : : : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 : 1998 : 14 12 11 12 15 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 1999 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 WA : : : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 : 1998 : 16 13 25 7 3 5 6 7 5 6 6 1 : 1999 : 17 14 24 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1 WI : : : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 : 1998 : 1 6 18 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2 : 1999 : 2 7 16 12 11 9 8 10 9 9 5 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Record High, Up 14 Percent January 1, 2001 potato stocks totaled a record high 273 million cwt, up 14 percent from last year and 4 percent above the previous record set in January 1997. Potatoes in storage accounted for 59 percent of the fall storage States' production, up 2 percentage points from a year ago. Stocks by type were 2 percent reds, 8 percent round whites, 4 percent long white, and 86 percent russets, with more russets but fewer reds and round whites than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to January 1, at 189 million cwt, was record high. This disappearance was up 5 percent from last year and 4 percent above the previous record set during the 1996 season. December disappearance of 36.6 million cwt was also record high for the month. Shrink and loss to this point in the season was 22.5 million cwt, up 7 percent from last year and 9 percent above two years ago. Processing of 2000 crop potatoes totaled a record high 97.1 million cwt to January 1, up 5 percent from the 1999 crop and 2 percent above the previous record set during the 1996 season for comparable States. In December, processors claimed a record high 18.5 million cwt of potatoes, up 11 percent from a year ago and 8 percent above the previous high in December 1995 for comparable States. Eastern States stored 15.5 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 2001, down 9 percent from a year ago and 5 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings were down 4 percent and Pennsylvania's stocks were off 27 percent from last year. New York's storage was down 24 percent from a year ago. Central States accounted for 57.4 million cwt of potato stocks this January 1, 10 percent above 2000 but 1 percent below 1999. Minnesota's stocks were up 44 percent and Nebraska's were up 27 percent. Stocks in North Dakota and Ohio were up 14 percent and 11 percent, respectively, from last year. Wisconsin's potato stocks were down 11 percent from a year ago and Michigan dropped 3 percent from last year. Western States held 200 million cwt of potatoes in storage on January 1, 2001, up 17 percent from last year and 16 percent above 1999. Washington's potato stocks were up 32 percent from a year ago, while Idaho's stocks were up 16 percent, and Oregon's were up 12 percent. Colorado was up 2 percent and Montana gained 5 percent. California's potato stocks were down 22 percent from a year ago. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1997-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1997 : 15.3 17.3 19.3 21.3 23.5 25.6 29.9 1998 : 18.4 20.6 22.7 24.7 26.9 29.0 30.9 33.3 1999 : 18.2 21.0 23.0 25.0 27.1 29.2 31.1 33.4 2000 2/ : 19.5 22.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. 2/ December corrected. Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 273 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.8 percent or approximately 7.6 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.9 percent or approximately 13.4 million cwt. The 10-year (1991-2000) record of the differences between the January 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.7 million cwt, ranging from 0.01 million to 14.3 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate each year. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final January 1 Stocks, United States, 1990-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1990 : 186,160 95.7 194,460 1991 : 210,935 100.0 211,005 1992 : 201,690 93.4 215,990 1993 : 209,270 96.3 217,300 1994 : 229,350 96.1 238,560 1995 : 218,970 98.0 223,550 1996 : 256,520 98.2 261,320 1997 : 240,850 97.7 246,550 1998 : 246,220 100.0 246,230 1999 : 238,160 99.3 239,910 2000 : 272,960 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.9 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage and loss and home use accounted for the remaining 9.1 percent. Most seed for use the following crop year is on hand and remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1995-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.6 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,726 2000 : 470,504 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. on February 14, 2001. 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