Potato Stocks ISSN: 1949-1565 Released January 14, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Potato Stocks Down 13 Percent From January 2010 The 13 major potato States held 205 million cwt of potatoes in storage January 1, 2011, down 13 percent from a year ago. Potatoes in storage accounted for 58 percent of the 2010 fall storage States' production, three percentage points below January 1, 2010. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 3.00 million cwt on January 1, 2011, down 14 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 147 million cwt, was 2 percent below January 1, 2010. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 14.7 million cwt, was down 11 percent from the same date in 2010. Processors in the 9 major States have used 77.2 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 2 percent from the same period last year. Dehydrating usage accounted for 10.6 million cwt of the total processing, down 24 percent from last year. Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: January 1, 2010 and 2011 [Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2009 totaled 23.7 million cwt] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2009 : Crop of 2010 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : :January stocks: : : :January stocks State : : Stocks : as a percent : : Stocks : Stocks : as a percent : Production : January 1, : of : Production : December 1, : January 1, : of : : 2010 : production : : 2010 : 2011 : production ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 cwt ----- percent ------------- 1,000 cwt ------------- percent : California .........: 3,960 1,600 40 2,280 1,900 1,400 61 Colorado ...........: 22,080 13,900 63 21,528 15,500 13,300 62 Idaho ..............: 132,500 88,500 67 114,440 82,500 73,500 64 Maine ..............: 15,263 10,800 71 15,892 12,200 10,800 68 Michigan ...........: 15,660 7,100 45 15,660 9,300 7,600 49 Minnesota ..........: 20,700 11,600 56 17,010 11,000 9,600 56 Montana ............: 3,298 3,200 97 3,673 3,600 3,500 95 Nebraska ...........: 8,756 4,900 56 7,719 4,900 4,100 53 New York ...........: 4,950 1,800 36 5,120 2,300 1,500 29 North Dakota .......: 19,125 10,800 56 22,000 14,000 12,000 55 Oregon .............: 21,460 15,000 70 20,058 16,400 14,500 72 Washington .........: 87,230 47,500 54 81,740 45,300 39,300 48 Wisconsin ..........: 28,980 17,600 61 24,293 15,800 13,400 55 : United States ......: 383,962 234,300 61 351,413 234,700 204,500 58 : Klamath Basin 1/ ...: (NA) 3,500 (NA) (NA) 4,000 3,000 (NA) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 1/ Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath Co., Oregon. Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: 2001-2010 [For 2001-2004, data accounts for 15 major producing States. Beginning in 2005 data accounts for 13 major producing States] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year : Production : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt : 2001 ....: 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 ....: 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 ....: 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 ....: 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 ....: 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 ....: 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 ....: 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 ....: 369,866 243,700 213,200 183,900 152,700 115,800 78,100 45,300 2009 ....: 383,962 265,800 234,300 203,500 169,700 128,700 89,610 55,120 2010 ....: 351,413 234,700 204,500 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potato Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks - 10 Selected States: January 1, 2010 and 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato types :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round whites : Long whites : Yellows : Russets State :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan : Dec : Jan : Jan : Dec : Jan : Jan : Dec : Jan : Jan : Dec : Jan : Jan : Dec : Jan : 2010 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2010 : 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : % : Colorado ..........: 3 2 2 2 3 3 - - - 11 10 10 84 85 85 Idaho .............: 2 2 2 2 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 95 95 95 Maine .............: 3 4 3 38 40 39 - - - 3 2 2 56 54 56 Michigan ..........: 2 1 1 88 90 88 - - - - - - 10 9 11 Minnesota .........: 11 9 8 4 2 1 - - - 1 1 1 84 88 90 New York ..........: 4 7 3 94 90 95 - - - 2 3 2 - - - North Dakota ......: 14 15 17 9 10 7 5 7 4 1 1 1 71 67 71 Oregon ............: 1 1 1 7 7 7 - - - 1 2 3 91 90 89 Washington ........: 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 1 1 1 87 87 87 Wisconsin .........: 5 4 2 28 25 10 - - - - 1 1 67 70 87 : 10 State average ..: 4 3 3 10 11 9 1 2 2 2 2 2 83 82 84 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. Potato Shrinkage and Loss - 13 Fall Storage States: 2007-2010 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To year : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : million cwt : 2007 ...: 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 ...: 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 20.6 22.3 23.8 2009 ...: 14.3 16.5 18.8 21.1 24.4 26.5 28.5 2010 ...: 12.7 14.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing - 9 Major States: 2008-2010 [Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To : crop year : December 1 : January 1 : February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt : Idaho and Oregon, Malheur : 2008 .......................: 22,380 28,980 35,430 42,150 49,030 55,570 62,940 77,340 2009 .......................: 23,110 29,180 35,170 42,050 49,200 56,100 62,930 79,400 2010 .......................: 21,040 26,790 : Maine 1/ : 2008 .......................: 1,555 2,130 2,765 3,355 3,815 4,565 5,265 7,120 2009 .......................: 1,575 2,060 2,680 3,265 3,915 4,550 5,260 7,160 2010 .......................: 1,915 2,460 : Washington and Oregon, Other : 2008 .......................: 32,560 38,050 42,795 49,865 56,350 62,635 70,625 81,260 2009 .......................: 25,395 31,245 36,530 43,780 50,130 56,700 64,805 75,690 2010 .......................: 27,670 33,595 : Other States 2/ : 2008 .......................: 12,480 15,120 18,165 21,030 24,025 26,515 29,590 37,285 2009 .......................: 10,865 13,565 16,305 18,995 21,600 24,355 27,375 34,240 2010 .......................: 11,660 14,385 : United States : 2008 .......................: 68,975 84,280 99,155 116,400 133,220 149,285 168,420 203,005 2009 .......................: 60,945 76,050 90,685 108,090 124,845 141,705 160,370 196,490 2010 .......................: 62,285 77,230 : Dehydrated 3/ : 2008 .......................: 10,675 14,490 18,335 21,465 24,875 28,195 31,870 39,345 2009 .......................: 10,985 14,035 17,150 19,895 23,155 26,630 30,045 38,915 2010 .......................: 7,845 10,610 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 2/ Other States include Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in Wisconsin. 3/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Potato stocks surveys are conducted in 13 major fall potato producing States, which account for nearly 88 percent of the United States all potato production. Growers, processors, and storage facilities are contacted each month from December through June to obtain the quantity of potatoes stored as of the first of the month, as well as shrinkage and loss information. Processing data is collected in nine States (Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin). Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks surveys along with federal administrative data is used to establish estimates of stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These estimates are reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Revision Policy: Stocks, processing, and shrinkage and loss estimates for the previous month are subject to revision based on late and/or updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information available, including disposition data, will be thoroughly reviewed and any necessary revisions for the entire crop year will be published in the Potatoes Annual Summary. Reliability: Survey indications are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding potato stocks are not included in the sample. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 205 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.6 percent, or approximately 5.32 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.5 percent, or approximately 9.20 million cwt. Changes between the January 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 4.23 million cwt, ranging from 10,000 cwt to14.3 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 14 times and above 6 times. Fall Potato Preliminary and Final January 1 Stocks - United States: 2000-2010 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : Percent of : Final year : stocks : final : stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt percent 1,000 cwt : 2000 .....: 272,960 99.2 275,270 2001 .....: 233,420 103.9 224,680 2002 .....: 232,140 100.3 231,490 2003 .....: 233,880 100.1 233,590 2004 .....: 238,220 100.6 236,700 2005 .....: 218,900 99.3 220,500 2006 .....: 220,000 97.4 225,800 2007 .....: 237,500 102.2 232,300 2008 .....: 212,500 99.7 213,200 2009 .....: 235,400 100.5 234,300 2010 .....: 204,500 (NA) (NA) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. 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