Pot 1-2 (2-08) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 15, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Lance Honig at (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 7 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 206 million cwt of potatoes in storage February 1, 2008, up 7 percent from last year and 9 percent above February 1, 2006. Potatoes in storage accounted for 52 percent of the 2007 fall storage States' production, up 3 percentage points from last year. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 2.70 million cwt on February 1, 2008, up 4 percent from last year. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Potato disappearance, at 194 million cwt, was down 1 percent from last year but up 5 percent from 2006. Season to date shrink and loss, at 18.0 million cwt, was down 2 percent from the same date in 2007 but 7 percent above 2006. Processors in the 9 major States have used 104 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 4 percent from the same time last year but 8 percent above 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 20.9 million cwt of the total processing, down 12 percent from last year but 9 percent above the same date in 2006. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1998-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1998 1/ : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 1/ : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 374,298 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,272 259,300 226,100 192,600 159,700 121,000 79,050 44,460 2007 : 400,085 270,100 237,500 206,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 major States. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2005-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2005 : 22,840 29,300 35,970 43,300 50,820 57,830 65,030 77,360 2006 : 27,090 34,070 41,350 48,940 56,650 63,680 71,220 85,630 2007 : 26,230 33,260 40,220 : ME 2/ : 2005 : 1,365 1,880 2,485 3,090 3,800 4,450 5,130 6,825 2006 : 1,755 2,360 2,910 3,465 4,185 4,810 5,470 7,560 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 : WA & OR-Oth : 2005 : 30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 69,360 78,550 2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,410 77,355 2007 : 28,995 34,675 39,700 : Other Sts 3/ : 2005 : 11,055 14,070 17,005 19,895 22,520 25,270 27,740 35,535 2006 : 14,270 17,695 21,290 24,545 28,040 31,370 34,830 43,315 2007 : 15,040 17,560 20,790 : Total : 2005 : 65,570 81,145 96,005 114,575 132,460 149,405 167,260 198,270 2006 : 74,095 91,185 107,740 126,880 145,565 163,030 181,930 213,860 2007 : 71,965 87,665 103,525 : Dehydrated 4/: 2005 : 11,920 15,655 19,225 22,765 26,605 30,065 34,130 41,630 2006 : 14,590 19,250 23,635 27,885 32,210 36,480 40,915 49,370 2007 : 12,660 16,680 20,865 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, February 1, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2006 : Crop of 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : of : : 2007 : Prod : : 2008 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,870 1,300 34 4,223 1,400 33 CO : 22,686 13,100 58 20,981 11,200 53 ID : 128,915 70,000 54 131,650 74,000 56 ME : 17,980 11,300 63 16,530 9,600 58 MI : 14,190 4,600 32 14,700 6,200 42 MN : 20,400 10,000 49 20,680 9,900 48 MT : 3,518 3,200 91 3,696 3,600 97 NE : 8,730 4,000 46 8,051 3,700 46 NY : 5,700 1,400 25 5,216 1,200 23 ND : 25,480 12,000 47 23,660 10,000 42 OR : 18,533 11,700 63 20,238 13,900 69 WA : 89,900 36,500 41 102,300 48,000 47 WI : 29,370 13,500 46 28,160 13,500 48 : 13 States : 389,272 192,600 49 400,085 206,200 52 : Klamath Basin 2/: 2,600 2,700 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2007 totaled 26.4 million cwt. 2/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 10 Selected States, February 1, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds :Round Whites : Long Whites : Yellows 1/ : Russets State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 3 4 13 3 11 84 82 ID : 2 2 2 2 1 96 95 ME : 2 2 40 40 1 2 57 56 MI : 1 90 86 1 10 12 MN : 11 10 4 5 2 83 85 NY : 5 16 90 69 13 5 2 ND : 13 13 15 10 2 4 1 70 72 OR : 1 1 2 6 2 1 1 95 91 WA : 1 3 4 2 7 1 97 85 WI : 1 1 30 31 1 69 67 : 10 St Avg : 3 3 10 9 1 3 2 86 83 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates began in December 2007. Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2004-2007 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production:Feb 1 1/: For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : :2004: 3,648 1,800 213 1 292 3,355 :2005: 3,306 1,100 249 331 2,975 :2006: 3,870 1,300 210 480 3,390 :2007: 4,223 1,400 CO : : :2004: 23,791 13,700 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 :2005: 22,910 12,900 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 :2006: 22,686 13,100 1,480 1,140 2,056 19,490 :2007: 20,981 11,200 ID : : :2004: 131,970 75,000 7,150 1,250 10,902 119,818 :2005: 118,288 66,000 7,370 1,230 7,800 109,258 :2006: 128,915 70,000 7,875 1,188 8,200 119,527 :2007: 131,650 74,000 ME : : :2004: 19,065 11,100 1,231 190 4,900 13,975 :2005: 15,455 9,700 1,264 242 1,183 14,030 :2006: 17,980 11,300 1,236 228 1,482 16,270 :2007: 16,530 9,600 MI : : :2004: 13,650 4,800 860 194 1,656 11,800 :2005: 13,910 4,500 1,044 182 1,728 12,000 :2006: 14,190 4,600 961 180 1,800 12,210 :2007: 14,700 6,200 MN : : :2004: 18,920 10,200 837 100 1,750 17,070 :2005: 17,630 9,000 1,040 140 1,600 15,890 :2006: 20,400 10,000 1,190 250 1,700 18,450 :2007: 20,680 9,900 MT : : :2004: 3,551 3,350 257 156 276 3,119 :2005: 3,445 3,300 244 156 210 3,079 :2006: 3,518 3,200 270 180 130 3,208 :2007: 3,696 3,600 NE : : :2004: 9,288 519 212 906 8,170 :2005: 8,245 3,900 515 231 834 7,180 :2006: 8,730 4,000 521 200 775 7,755 :2007: 8,051 3,700 NY : : :2004: 5,184 1,200 451 100 513 4,571 :2005: 5,226 1,700 453 100 491 4,635 :2006: 5,700 1,400 460 100 480 5,120 :2007: 5,216 1,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2004-2007 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production:Feb 1 1/: For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : :2004: 26,765 15,300 1,794 240 2,825 23,700 :2005: 20,500 9,400 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 :2006: 25,480 12,000 1,853 240 2,290 22,950 :2007: 23,660 10,000 OH 2/ : : :2004: 1,080 73 6 33 1,041 :2005: :2006: :2007: OR : : :2004: 19,775 11,800 955 241 1,264 18,270 :2005: 22,023 14,500 837 255 1,392 20,376 :2006: 18,533 11,700 880 260 1,020 17,253 :2007: 20,238 13,900 PA 2/ : : :2004: 2,640 900 253 39 216 2,385 :2005: :2006: :2007: WA : : :2004: 93,810 36,500 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 :2005: 95,480 40,500 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 :2006: 89,900 36,500 4,290 240 5,500 84,160 :2007: 102,300 48,000 WI : : :2004: 30,450 13,600 1,360 260 1,985 28,205 :2005: 27,880 12,600 1,452 300 1,380 26,200 :2006: 29,370 13,500 1,430 245 1,925 27,200 :2007: 28,160 13,500 Other Sts : : :2004: 4,240 :2005: :2006: :2007: 13 States 3/ : : :2004: 403,587 203,490 21,316 4,529 35,404 363,654 :2005: 374,298 189,100 21,766 4,516 26,409 343,373 :2006: 389,272 192,600 22,656 4,451 27,838 356,983 :2007: 400,085 206,200 Fall States : : :2004: 410,253 21,593 4,549 35,923 369,781 :2005: 382,743 22,415 4,545 27,115 351,083 :2006: 398,921 23,337 4,482 28,576 365,863 :2007: 409,082 Klamath Basin 4/: : :2004: :2005: :2006: 2,600 :2007: 2,700 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts" to avoid disclosure of individual operations. 2/ Stock estimates discontinued in crop year 2005. 3/ 15 storage States in crop year 2004. 4/ Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 72.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 27.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2002-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-----------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Production : : Production : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,768 2005 : 382,743 351,083 91.7 31,660 8.3 25,659 2006 : 398,921 365,863 91.7 33,058 8.3 26,437 2007 : 409,082 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2004-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2004 1/ : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 26.4 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 27.8 2007 : 13.9 16.0 18.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 fall storage States. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States and United States, 2004-2006 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State:Marketing:Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 : 2006 : 9 15 11 15 10 11 12 9 5 3 CO : : : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 : 2006 : 6 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 7 ID : : : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 : 2006 : 3 11 12 8 7 8 8 10 10 9 7 7 ME : : : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 : 2006 : 8 7 8 9 9 8 13 13 12 7 6 MI : : : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 : 2006 : 1 9 12 13 12 12 12 7 11 7 4 MN : : : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 : 2006 : 5 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 11 NY : : : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 : 2006 : 4 15 14 12 14 16 7 10 4 4 ND : : : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 : 2006 : 3 27 11 6 6 11 5 7 10 9 4 1 OR : : : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 : 2006 : 12 10 13 5 7 7 7 10 10 8 7 4 PA 1/: : : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 : 2005 : : 2006 : WA : : : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 : 2006 : 15 11 25 7 6 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : 2006 : 1 6 15 10 10 10 9 9 11 10 6 3 : : US : : : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 : 2006 : 7 12 14 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Farm marketing estimates discontinued in 2005. February Potato Stocks Up 7 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 206 million cwt of potatoes in storage February 1, 2008, up 7 percent from last year and 9 percent above February 1, 2006. Potatoes in storage accounted for 52 percent of the 2007 fall storage States' production, up 3 percentage points from last year. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 2.70 million cwt on February 1, 2008, 4 percent higher than last year. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Disappearance of 194 million cwt from the start of harvest to February 1 was down 1 percent from last year but up 5 percent from 2006. Shrink and loss, at 18.0 million cwt, was down 2 percent from the previous year but 7 percent above the same date in 2006. Processors have used 104 million cwt of 2007 crop potatoes so far this season, down 4 percent from a year ago but 8 percent above 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon total processing decreased 3 percent from a year ago, Maine's total processing was 3 percent below the same date in 2007, and Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing was down 6 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage was 20.9 million cwt of the total processing, down 12 percent from last year but 9 percent above the same date in 2006. Western States held 152 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, up 12 percent from last year and 10 percent above 2006. Idaho's potato stocks were up 6 percent from last year; Washington's potato sheds held 32 percent more than last year; and Oregon's stocks increased 19 percent from last season. Montana's potato sheds held 13 percent more stocks than last year and California's potato stocks increased 8 percent from last season. Colorado's potato stocks declined 15 percent from last year. Central States accounted for 43.3 million cwt of potato stocks on February 1, down 2 percent from last year but 10 percent above the same date in 2006. Wisconsin's potato stocks were unchanged from last year; North Dakotas's sheds held 17 percent less; and potato stocks in Minnesota were 1 percent below last season. Nebraska's potato stocks decreased 8 percent from the same date in 2007. Michigan's potato sheds held 35 percent more than a year ago. Eastern States stored 10.8 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, down 15 percent from last year and 5 percent below February 1, 2006. Maine's potato sheds held 15 percent less than last year, while New York's potato stocks declined 14 percent from a year ago. Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 206 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.1 percent, or approximately 6.39 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.3 percent, or approximately 10.9 million cwt. The 20-year (1987-2006) record of differences between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.19 million cwt, ranging from 9.66 million cwt above the final to 14.2 million cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 14 years and above 6 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February 1 Stocks, United States, 1997-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 205,850 96.8 212,562 1998 : 211,100 100.7 209,640 1999 : 205,780 99.3 207,150 2000 : 235,050 100.3 234,260 2001 : 201,750 105.0 192,090 2002 : 197,470 99.2 199,020 2003 : 200,530 100.1 200,230 2004 : 204,190 100.3 203,490 2005 : 187,600 99.2 189,100 2006 : 187,800 97.5 192,600 2007 : 206,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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