Pot 1-2 (12-09) Potato Stocks Washington, D.C. Released December 15, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Tierra Mobley at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 9 Percent From December 2008 The 13 major potato States held 265 million cwt of potatoes in storage December 1, 2009, up 9 percent from a year ago but slightly below December 1, 2007. Potatoes in storage accounted for 69 percent of the 2009 fall storage States' production. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 4.50 million cwt on December 1, 2009, up 13 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 120 million cwt, was 5 percent below December 1, 2008 and down 9 percent from 2007. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 14.1 million cwt, was up 11 percent from the same date in 2008 but 1 percent below 2007. Processors in the 9 major States have used 60.9 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 12 percent from the same period last year and down 17 percent from 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 11.0 million cwt of the total processing, up 3 percent from last year but 14 percent below the same period in 2007. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, December 1, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2008 : Crop of 2009 :----------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Dec 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : of : : 2008 : Prod : : 2009 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,948 1,900 48 4,158 2,100 51 CO : 21,907 16,600 76 22,080 15,800 72 ID : 116,475 85,000 73 131,000 96,500 74 ME : 14,769 11,300 77 15,263 12,000 79 MI : 14,875 8,300 56 15,660 8,700 56 MN : 20,400 13,200 65 21,150 13,000 61 MT : 3,465 3,400 98 3,278 3,200 98 NE : 8,245 5,600 68 8,712 5,800 67 NY : 5,696 2,600 46 4,950 2,500 51 ND : 22,680 14,800 65 19,125 13,000 68 OR : 18,676 16,100 86 21,460 17,400 81 WA : 93,000 49,500 53 88,450 54,500 62 WI : 25,730 15,400 60 28,980 20,000 69 : 13 States : 369,866 243,700 66 384,266 264,500 69 : Klamath Basin 2/ : 4,000 4,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2008 totaled 24.5 million cwt. 2/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 2000-2009 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : : : : : : : : Year : Production : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Cwt : 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 : 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 : 369,866 243,700 213,200 183,900 152,700 115,800 78,100 45,300 2009 : 384,266 264,500 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 15 major States. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 10 Selected States, December 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds :Round Whites : Long Whites : Yellows : Russets State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 3 3 1 2 11 11 85 84 ID : 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 95 95 ME : 2 4 43 45 3 6 52 45 MI : 1 1 83 89 1 15 10 MN : 9 13 3 3 2 1 86 83 NY : 5 4 89 91 6 5 ND : 15 14 7 9 8 6 1 1 69 70 OR : 1 1 7 8 1 1 1 90 90 WA : 3 3 5 4 11 5 1 1 80 87 WI : 5 4 12 14 1 83 81 : 10 St Avg : 4 4 9 10 3 1 2 2 82 83 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2006-2009 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Million Cwt : 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 2007 : 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 : 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 20.6 22.3 23.8 2009 : 14.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2007-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 :Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2007 :26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030 2008 :22,380 28,980 35,430 42,150 49,030 55,570 62,940 77,340 2009 :23,110 : ME 2/ : 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,550 2008 : 1,635 2,240 2,895 3,515 4,005 4,795 5,540 7,545 2009 : 1,625 : WA & OR-Oth : 2007 :30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770 2008 :32,560 38,050 42,795 49,865 56,350 62,635 70,625 81,260 2009 :25,350 : Other Sts 3/ : 2007 :15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430 2008 :12,480 15,120 18,165 21,030 24,025 26,515 29,590 37,285 2009 :10,855 : Total : 2007 :73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,780 2008 :69,055 84,390 99,285 116,560 133,410 149,515 168,695 203,430 2009 :60,940 : Dehydrated 4/ : 2007 :12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,660 2008 :10,675 14,490 18,335 21,465 24,875 28,195 31,870 39,345 2009 :10,995 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Reliability of December 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 2.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 265 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.2 percent, or approximately 5.82 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.8 percent, or approximately 10.1 million cwt. The 20-year (1988 - 2007) record of differences between the December 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 3.98 million cwt, ranging from 14.5 million cwt above the final to 110,000 cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the December 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 15 years and above 5 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final December 1 Stocks, United States, 1999-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1999 : 274,870 99.9 275,100 2000 : 309,520 99.7 310,300 2001 : 266,520 103.0 258,750 2002 : 265,190 100.3 264,485 2003 : 267,100 99.7 267,900 2004 : 271,600 100.2 271,100 2005 : 253,400 99.8 253,800 2006 : 252,300 97.5 258,900 2007 : 270,000 101.7 265,500 2008 : 242,200 99.4 243,700 2009 : 264,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. For free access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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