Pot 1-2 (2-04) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 13, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 1 Percent The 15 major potato States held 201 million cwt of potatoes in storage February 1, 2004, up 1 percent from last year and 4 percent above 2002. Potatoes in storage account for 50 percent of the 2003 fall storage States' production, up 1 percentage point from last year. Stocks by type show more reds and round whites and fewer russets than a year ago. Disappearance of 203 million cwt of potatoes is down 2 percent from last year but 4 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 20.6 million cwt so far this season, is up 1 percent from last year and 5 percent above the same date in 2002. Processors in the 9 major States used 101 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 5 percent from a year ago but 5 percent above two years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 22.1 million cwt of the total processing, down 7 percent from last year. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1994-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240 2001 : 387,179 258,750 224,680 192,190 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,821 264,585 231,690 199,320 165,310 125,870 82,940 45,980 2003 : 403,946 267,860 233,880 200,530 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 40,860 47,710 54,150 61,200 73,390 2002 : 28,380 34,860 41,200 48,600 56,240 63,840 71,280 85,390 2003 : 24,310 30,730 36,260 : ME 2/ : 2001 : 1,975 2,440 3,110 3,700 4,285 4,775 5,515 7,195 2002 : 2,230 2,715 3,345 3,905 4,505 5,225 5,905 7,835 2003 : 1,590 2,095 2,725 : WA & OR-Oth : 2001 : 29,320 35,310 40,540 47,910 54,970 61,360 69,400 77,180 2002 : 33,680 39,490 44,190 51,920 58,710 64,300 71,480 79,110 2003 : 32,670 38,520 43,600 : Oth Sts 3/ : 2001 : 13,170 14,925 19,000 22,115 24,655 27,815 30,460 37,740 2002 : 12,190 14,865 17,865 20,740 23,580 26,000 29,075 36,705 2003 4/ : 12,570 15,410 18,760 : Total : 2001 : 65,405 80,005 96,270 114,585 131,620 148,100 166,575 195,505 2002 : 76,480 91,930 106,600 125,165 143,035 159,365 177,740 209,040 2003 4/ : 71,140 86,755 101,345 : Dehydrated 5/: 2001 6/ : 38,581 2002 : 15,670 19,660 23,710 27,950 31,910 36,105 40,455 48,943 2003 4/ : 14,250 18,370 22,050 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, CO, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2001. CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI in 2002 and 2003. 4/ January revised. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. 6/ No monthly data available. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on February 1, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2002 : Crop of 2003 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : of : : 2003 : Prod : : 2004 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,264 2,400 56 3,444 2,000 58 CO : 27,885 15,300 55 23,652 12,200 52 ID : 133,385 72,500 54 123,180 67,000 54 ME : 16,960 9,500 56 17,030 10,500 62 MI : 13,878 5,600 40 15,015 5,600 37 MN : 18,700 9,100 49 22,330 11,100 50 MT : 3,224 2,900 90 3,339 3,000 90 NE : 8,611 3,700 43 9,860 4,500 46 NY : 5,500 1,100 20 6,510 2,400 37 ND : 23,460 11,600 49 27,440 15,000 55 OH : 903 20 2 1,290 130 10 OR : 24,936 12,500 50 20,991 13,500 64 PA : 2,590 900 35 3,915 1,100 28 WA : 92,400 38,500 42 93,150 38,000 41 WI : 31,125 13,700 44 32,800 14,500 44 : 15 States : 407,821 199,320 49 403,946 200,530 50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2003 totaled 28.3 million cwt. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Selected States, February 1, 2003-2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 4 5 1 2 95 93 ID : 1 1 4 3 95 96 ME : 5 4 44 46 1 1 50 49 MI : 98 90 2 10 MN : 11 11 5 4 84 85 NY : 5 5 90 90 5 5 ND : 12 13 15 28 3 4 70 55 OR : 2 1 1 1 98 97 PA : 3 4 97 96 WA : 1 1 3 3 96 96 WI : 3 2 24 32 73 66 : 11 St Avg: 3 4 9 14 2 2 86 80 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 2000-2003 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2000: 3,741 1,700 58 11 300 3,430 : 2001: 1,424 800 223 3 128 1,293 : 2002: 4,264 2,400 198 16 400 3,848 : 2003: 3,444 2,000 CO : : : 2000: 27,972 15,100 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640 : 2001: 21,357 11,000 1,790 1,465 1,887 18,005 : 2002: 27,885 15,300 1,724 1,460 2,845 23,580 : 2003: 23,652 12,200 ID : : : 2000: 152,320 87,500 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412 : 2001: 120,200 68,000 8,250 1,230 8,261 110,709 : 2002: 133,385 72,500 7,920 1,440 8,650 123,295 : 2003: 123,180 67,000 ME : : : 2000: 17,920 10,900 1,302 315 1,490 16,115 : 2001: 16,430 8,900 1,344 301 849 15,280 : 2002: 16,960 9,500 1,386 310 790 15,860 : 2003: 17,030 10,500 MI : : : 2000: 14,963 5,200 1,135 250 1,700 13,013 : 2001: 13,950 4,800 1,181 245 945 12,760 : 2002: 13,878 5,600 1,123 205 1,400 12,273 : 2003: 15,015 5,600 MN : : : 2000: 21,240 11,600 1,140 130 1,700 19,410 : 2001: 18,425 9,500 1,159 190 1,700 16,535 : 2002: 18,700 9,100 1,098 130 1,400 17,170 : 2003: 22,330 11,100 MT : : : 2000: 3,503 3,000 211 133 732 2,638 : 2001: 3,296 2,630 263 152 188 2,956 : 2002: 3,224 2,900 254 145 142 2,937 : 2003: 3,339 3,000 NE : : : 2000: 10,127 4,600 542 182 730 9,215 : 2001: 8,400 3,200 570 153 720 7,527 : 2002: 8,611 3,700 611 149 612 7,850 : 2003: 9,860 4,500 NY : : : 2000: 5,964 1,400 517 108 406 5,450 : 2001: 5,942 1,000 495 100 502 5,340 : 2002: 5,500 1,100 488 100 350 5,050 : 2003: 6,510 2,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 2000-2003 Crop Years (continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production : Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2000: 26,950 13,700 2,035 295 3,235 23,420 : 2001: 26,400 14,500 2,301 320 3,960 22,120 : 2002: 23,460 11,600 2,242 450 2,650 20,360 : 2003: 27,440 15,000 OH : : : 2000: 1,134 60 102 2 35 1,097 : 2001: 1,097 60 90 3 36 1,058 : 2002: 903 20 89 2 12 889 : 2003: 1,290 130 OR : : : 2000: 30,683 20,000 957 140 1,915 28,628 : 2001: 20,730 14,000 1,200 175 1,059 19,496 : 2002: 24,936 12,500 1,021 266 1,386 23,284 : 2003: 20,991 13,500 PA : : : 2000: 3,510 1,100 252 44 165 3,301 : 2001: 3,173 1,000 285 59 120 2,994 : 2002: 2,590 900 276 38 78 2,474 : 2003: 3,915 1,100 WA : : : 2000: 105,000 44,500 3,960 300 9,500 95,200 : 2001: 94,400 40,000 3,960 300 7,000 87,100 : 2002: 92,400 38,500 3,960 300 6,500 85,600 : 2003: 93,150 38,000 WI : : : 2000: 33,800 13,900 1,700 264 1,949 31,587 : 2001: 31,955 12,800 1,615 278 1,947 29,730 : 2002: 31,125 13,700 1,848 265 1,775 29,085 : 2003: 32,800 14,500 15 Sts : : : 2000: 458,827 234,260 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556 : 2001: 387,179 192,190 24,726 4,974 29,302 352,903 : 2002: 407,821 199,320 24,238 5,276 28,990 373,555 : 2003: 403,946 200,530 Fall Sts : : : 2000: 467,504 24,249 4,968 42,257 420,279 : 2001: 393,750 25,143 5,039 29,757 358,954 : 2002: 414,317 24,681 5,401 29,425 379,491 : 2003: 411,386 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2000-2002 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10 : 2001 : 15 11 17 17 22 18 : 2002 : 11 11 11 10 10 10 13 8 9 7 CO : : : 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5 : 2001 : 5 10 11 12 12 9 11 10 11 7 2 : 2002 : 4 9 10 10 11 9 11 11 10 7 8 ID : : : 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9 : 2001 : 3 12 13 8 6 7 9 10 10 10 6 6 : 2002 : 4 8 11 10 7 8 8 10 11 10 7 6 ME : : : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3 : 2001 : 1 9 10 9 9 12 11 11 12 8 5 3 : 2002 : 2 7 11 9 8 10 9 10 15 10 5 4 MI : : : 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1 : 2001 : 3 7 8 12 11 12 13 11 11 8 3 1 : 2002 : 4 7 11 12 13 8 6 8 12 13 6 MN : : : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18 : 2001 : 10 9 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 : 2002 : 9 9 9 7 8 7 9 7 9 12 8 6 NY : : : 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5 : 2001 : 4 20 18 17 15 9 7 6 4 : 2002 : 8 17 16 14 11 14 10 7 3 ND : : : 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8 : 2001 : 18 10 12 7 8 7 7 14 11 6 : 2002 : 2 22 10 9 6 9 4 8 10 13 5 2 OR : : : 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6 : 2001 : 7 13 21 8 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 3 : 2002 : 11 9 21 9 9 6 9 8 6 7 3 2 PA : : : 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2001 : 17 16 15 12 12 10 8 7 2 1 : 2002 : 18 14 17 14 10 9 6 5 4 3 WA : : : 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 : 2001 : 11 13 25 7 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 1 : 2002 : 17 12 19 9 5 5 7 6 6 7 6 1 WI : : : 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2 : 2001 : 1 6 13 14 12 10 9 8 10 11 5 1 : 2002 : 1 7 12 12 12 9 9 8 12 10 6 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- February Potato Stocks Up 1 Percent from Last Year The 15 major potato States held 201 million cwt of potatoes in storage February 1, 2004, up 1 percent from last year and 4 percent above 2002. Potatoes in storage account for 50 percent of the 2003 fall storage States' production, up 1 percentage point from last year. Stocks by type were 4 percent red, 14 percent round white, 2 percent long white (Shepody), and 80 percent russet, with more reds and round whites and fewer russets than a year ago. Disappearance of 203 million cwt from the start of harvest to February 1, is down 2 percent from the same period last year but 4 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 20.6 million cwt, is up 1 percent from last year and 5 percent above two years ago. Processors used 101 million cwt of 2003 crop potatoes so far this season, down 5 percent from a year ago but 5 percent above two years ago. January usage of 14.6 million cwt is 1 percent below last year and 10 percent below two years ago. Dehydrators used 22.1 million cwt to date, down 7 percent from last year. Western States held 136 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, down 6 percent from last year and 1 percent below two years ago. Idaho's potato stocks are down 8 percent from last year, Washington decreased 1 percent, Colorado's storages held 20 percent less, and California lost 17 percent. Oregon's sheds stored 8 percent more than last year and Montana increased 3 percent. Central States accounted for 50.8 million cwt of potato stocks this February, up 16 percent from last year and 13 percent above two years ago. North Dakota's stocks increased 29 percent from last year's level, Wisconsin gained 6 percent, and Minnesota went up 22 percent. Nebraska's stocks are 22 percent more than last year, and Ohio jumped 550 percent. Michigan's storages hold the same amount as last year at this time. Eastern States stored 14.0 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, up 22 percent from last year and 28 percent above two years ago. Maine's stocks are up 11 percent, New York's gained 118 percent, and Pennsylvania stocks increased 22 percent. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2000-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4 2001 : 14.7 17.3 19.7 21.7 23.5 25.1 26.7 29.3 2002 : 15.5 18.1 20.3 22.2 24.0 25.7 27.2 29.0 2003 : 14.9 17.4 20.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 201 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.1 percent or approximately 6.2 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.4 percent or approximately 10.8 million cwt. The 10-year (1993-2002) record of differences between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.6 million cwt, ranging from 9.6 million cwt above the final to 7.4 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 7 years and above 3 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February 1 Stocks, United States, 1993-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 178,070 96.0 185,490 1994 : 196,005 96.8 202,470 1995 : 184,755 97.6 189,360 1996 : 220,465 97.5 226,080 1997 : 205,850 96.8 212,562 1998 : 211,100 100.7 209,640 1999 : 205,780 99.3 207,150 2000 : 235,050 100.3 234,260 2001 : 201,750 105.0 192,190 2002 : 197,470 99.1 199,320 2003 : 200,530 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1998-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709 2000 : 467,504 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,145 2001 : 393,750 358,954 91.2 34,796 8.8 28,639 2002 : 414,317 379,491 91.6 34,826 8.4 28,299 2003 : 411,386 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on March 15, 2004. 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