HDR1012000110080314951500Potato Stocks HDR2012000110080314951500Potato Stocks Narrative Released March 14, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Potato Stocks Up 6 Percent Potato stocks on the first of March totaled 163 million cwt, up 6 percent from a year ago and 7 percent above two years ago. Disappearance was a record high 237 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 7 percent from last year. Shrink and loss of 26.3 million cwt was 6 percent more than a year ago. Processor usage, at 116 million cwt of potatoes, was up 9 percent for the season, and February usage was up 3 percent from the same month last year. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For information call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. Pot 1-2 (3-95) HDR2012000110080314951500Fall Potatoes Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1985-94 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Cwt : 1985 : 343,984 235,475 202,800 171,510 138,720 104,540 65,380 1986 : 307,928 209,435 180,915 154,545 128,720 95,090 59,790 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 400,385 263,630 229,350 196,005 163,305 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1992-94 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Cwt ID & OR-Malheur Co: 1992 : 22,180 29,080 35,710 42,800 50,090 57,090 80,570 1993 : 24,090 30,540 37,150 44,720 53,070 61,440 85,780 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 : ME 2/ : 1992 : 1,195 1,630 2,205 2,720 3,390 4,020 5,055 1993 : 1,350 1,720 2,210 2,505 2,890 3,275 4,555 1994 : 1,510 1,840 2,275 2,535 : WA & OR-Other : 1992 : 26,840 31,550 35,950 41,670 46,530 51,630 63,510 1993 : 28,260 33,350 39,010 45,020 51,290 57,180 70,690 1994 : 28,690 33,500 39,120 46,070 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1992 : 7,140 9,220 11,265 13,305 15,550 17,555 25,070 1993 : 7,605 9,515 11,605 13,720 16,080 18,705 25,690 1994 : 8,790 12,045 14,605 17,095 : Total : 1992 : 57,355 71,480 85,130 100,495 115,560 130,295 174,205 1993 : 61,305 75,125 89,975 105,965 123,330 140,600 186,715 1994 : 65,610 81,615 98,330 115,590 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the state in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on March 1, 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Crop of 1993 : Crop of 1994 :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : of : : 1994 : Prod : : 1995 : Prod ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent --- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent : CA : 4,800 2,200 46 4,400 2,300 52 CO : 25,270 10,900 43 25,795 11,200 43 ID : 126,192 65,000 52 134,340 63,000 47 ME : 19,890 8,200 41 17,250 7,700 45 MI : 11,780 3,100 26 12,180 3,800 31 MN : 12,650 5,000 40 17,755 8,200 46 MT : 2,700 2,370 88 3,200 2,730 85 NE : 3,008 1,050 35 3,888 1,350 35 NY : Long Island : 1,643 1/115 1,617 1/225 Upstate : 6,050 600 10 6,188 1,100 18 ND : 21,090 7,900 37 28,200 10,400 37 OH : 1,140 1/ 1,348 1/ OR : 23,103 12,100 52 25,784 13,000 50 PA : 4,600 900 20 3,780 700 19 WA : 88,500 26,500 30 88,920 30,500 34 WI : 22,588 8,200 36 25,740 7,100 28 : Total 15 State: 375,004 154,135 41 400,385 163,305 41 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations. HDR2012000110080314951500Potato Stocks up 6 percent Narrative Potato Stocks up 6 percent Potato stocks totaled 163 million cwt on March 1, 1995, up 6 percent from last year and 7 percent above two years ago. Stocks now are 41 percent of fall potato production in the 15 storage States, the same as last year. Disappearance to date for the season was a record 237 million cwt, 7 percent above last year and 10 percent above two years ago. Processors used 116 million cwt, up 9 percent. Disappearance from harvest through February totaled 237 million cwt of potatoes, up 7 percent from last year and 10 percent above two years ago. February disappearance of 32.7 million was up 2 percent from a year ago. Shrinkage and loss to date was 26.3 million cwt, up 6 percent from the 24.9 million cwt lost last year and 3 percent above the 25.7 million cwt lost two years ago. Processor usage totaled 116 million cwt to March 1, 1995, up 9 percent from a year ago and 15 percent above two years ago. February processing of 17.3 million cwt of potatoes was up 8 percent from last year and 12 percent above 1994. Eastern States stored 9.7 million cwt of potatoes this year, down 2 percent from last year and 27 percent below 1993. Maine's stocks were down 6 percent and Pennsylvania's stocks were off 22 percent. Central States accounted for 30.9 million cwt of potato stocks this March, up 22 percent from last year and 3 percent above two years ago. North Dakota's stocks were 32 percent above a year ago but 1 percent below two years ago. Minnesota's storages were up 64 percent. Nebraska's stocks were up 29 percent and Michigan's cellars stored 23 percent more than a year ago. Wisconsin's stocks were off 13 percent from last year. Western States held 123 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 1995. This is up 3 percent from last year and 12 percent above two years ago. Idaho's stocks were off 3 percent and accounted for over half of the Western total. Oregon's stocks were up 7 percent and Washington was 15 percent above a year earlier. Colorado's stocks were up 3 percent from last year and California's storage was up 5 percent. Montana's stocks, mainly seed, were up 15 percent. HDR2012000110080314951500Reliability Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.9 percent. This means the that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 163 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.9 percent or approximately 6.4 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.8 percent or approximately 11.1 million cwt. The 10-year (1984-93) record of the differences between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.3 million cwt, ranging from 0.4 million to 13.1 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March Stocks, United States, 1984-94 Crop Years ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1984 : 116,655 98.5 118,400 1985 : 137,420 99.1 138,720 1986 : 124,820 97.0 128,720 1987 : 137,950 99.4 138,800 1988 : 118,960 95.6 124,485 1989 : 115,780 99.3 116,600 1990 : 126,030 93.7 134,470 1991 : 146,180 100.2 145,820 1992 : 139,665 91.4 152,795 1993 : 146,080 94.8 154,135 1994 : 163,305 -- -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ As reported in the September Potato Annual Report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.6 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.4 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand, but remains as part of stocks until planted. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 13, 1995. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. Publications may be obtained in hard copy or on diskette by calling the ERS- NASS order desk toll free at 1-800-999-6779 or by mail from ERS-NASS, 341 Victory Drive, Herndon, VA 22070. Bulletins cost $10.00 each for paper products or 3.5" ASCII diskettes. To order bulletins by mail, return this form along with your check payable to ERS- NASS. The bulletins will also be available on Internet through the Mann Library at Cornell University (gopher usda.mannlib.cornell.edu 70) at no charge.