Pot 1-2 (2-99) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 12, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. February Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent The 15 major potato States held 211 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 1999, down 1 percent from last year and 7 percent below 1997. Storage accounted for 50 percent of 1998 fall production, down 1 percent from a year ago. This year's storage held more russets and round whites but fewer long whites than a year earlier. Disappearance, at 214 million cwt, is up 6 percent from last year including a 9 percent gain in processing. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1989-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,585 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 424,897 282,300 246,220 211,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 : ME 2/ : 1995 : 1,455 1,850 2,430 2,850 3,435 3,965 5,725 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,180 1,710 2,260 : WA & OR - Other : 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,460 38,895 45,650 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1995 : 12,650 15,630 18,815 21,985 25,510 28,610 33,580 1996 : 13,720 17,000 20,645 24,085 27,650 30,830 43,100 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 4/ : 11,020 13,785 17,510 : Total : 1995 : 71,415 87,690 103,965 121,645 139,735 156,625 198,805 1996 : 78,240 93,985 110,585 130,745 149,610 168,290 227,535 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 73,170 89,090 108,090 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. 4/ January 1999 corrected. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on February 1, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1997 : Crop of 1998 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : of : : 1998 : Prod : : 1999 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,200 2,100 50 3,708 2,000 54 CO : 24,993 14,700 59 25,360 14,000 55 ID : 140,314 81,000 58 139,650 79,000 57 ME : 19,080 12,100 63 18,060 10,500 58 MI : 14,250 5,500 39 14,725 5,400 37 MN : 20,440 10,500 51 21,170 10,500 50 MT : 3,328 2,980 90 3,180 2,890 91 NE : 7,761 3,300 43 8,175 4,240 52 NY : 7,150 1,500 21 7,290 1,600 22 ND : 22,000 11,900 54 28,670 14,000 49 OH : 1,170 82 7 1,200 70 6 OR : 27,319 16,000 59 26,229 15,800 60 PA : 3,173 1,200 38 3,360 800 24 WA : 88,160 36,500 41 93,225 36,500 39 WI : 30,175 13,200 44 30,895 13,800 45 : 15 States : 413,513 212,562 51 424,897 211,100 50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, February 1, 1998-99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 5 4 2 6 93 90 ID : 8 4 92 96 ME : 4 4 49 46 7 9 40 41 MI : 1 1 74 84 25 15 MN : 10 12 7 5 3 3 80 80 NY : 5 5 93 93 2 2 ND : 12 11 13 18 5 3 70 68 OR : 1 2 2 1 4 96 94 PA : 3 2 97 98 WA : 1 1 3 3 96 96 WI : 1 2 16 18 83 80 : 11 St Avg: 2 2 9 10 5 3 84 85 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1995: 5,330 2,800 242 10 460 4,860 : 1996: 4,600 2,500 200 23 472 4,105 : 1997: 4,200 2,100 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 2,000 CO : : : 1995: 23,808 13,400 1,950 1,285 2,048 20,475 : 1996: 29,175 18,100 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 : 1997: 24,993 14,700 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 14,000 ID : : : 1995: 132,657 73,500 8,700 1,785 8,920 121,952 : 1996: 142,800 82,000 8,600 1,500 10,100 131,200 : 1997: 140,314 81,000 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 139,650 79,000 ME : : : 1995: 17,160 10,400 1,716 420 1,025 15,715 : 1996: 21,175 13,100 1,584 395 1,800 18,980 : 1997: 19,080 12,100 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 10,500 MI : : : 1995: 16,350 6,500 962 168 690 15,492 : 1996: 13,800 4,600 768 300 1,300 12,200 : 1997: 14,250 5,500 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,725 5,400 MN : : : 1995: 20,790 10,200 1,573 346 1,757 18,687 : 1996: 24,600 13,200 1,348 445 4,158 19,997 : 1997: 20,440 10,500 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 10,500 MT : : : 1995: 2,940 2,600 239 128 147 2,665 : 1996: 3,213 2,850 239 137 221 2,855 : 1997: 3,328 2,980 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 2,890 NE : : : 1995: 3,680 2,000 292 187 284 3,209 : 1996: 4,402 2,440 451 169 439 3,794 : 1997: 7,761 3,300 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 4,240 NY : : : 1995: 7,425 1,500 594 155 290 6,980 : 1996: 7,420 1,400 583 127 341 6,952 : 1997: 7,150 1,500 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 1,600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1995: 25,410 11,500 2,211 280 2,800 22,330 : 1996: 28,820 15,000 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 : 1997: 22,000 11,900 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 14,000 OH : : : 1995: 1,404 60 107 4 10 1,390 : 1996: 1,275 90 109 5 35 1,235 : 1997: 1,170 82 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 70 OR : : : 1995: 24,788 12,300 1,475 148 1,450 23,190 : 1996: 30,124 19,000 1,345 305 2,560 27,259 : 1997: 27,319 16,000 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 15,800 PA : : : 1995: 4,080 1,200 314 20 102 3,958 : 1996: 4,160 1,300 266 81 320 3,759 : 1997: 3,173 1,200 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 800 WA : : : 1995: 80,850 30,500 3,912 300 6,400 74,150 : 1996: 94,990 36,500 3,648 300 6,800 87,890 : 1997: 88,160 36,500 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 36,500 WI : : : 1995: 28,113 10,900 1,806 298 1,350 26,465 : 1996: 33,150 14,000 1,710 320 1,425 31,405 : 1997: 30,175 13,200 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 13,800 15 Sts : : : 1995: 394,785 189,360 26,093 5,534 27,733 361,518 : 1996: 443,704 226,080 24,964 5,952 39,216 398,536 : 1997: 413,513 212,562 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 424,897 211,100 23 Fall: : : 1995: 404,852 26,813 5,569 28,604 370,679 : 1996: 454,388 25,608 6,054 40,087 408,247 : 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 434,368 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1995-97 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CO : : : 1995 : 4 8 10 10 11 10 10 12 10 9 6 : 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 ID : : : 1995 : 4 16 17 6 7 6 6 9 8 8 7 6 : 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 ME : : : 1995 : 2 5 7 9 9 11 11 17 18 7 4 : 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 MI : : : 1995 : 5 11 15 13 13 11 6 9 11 6 : 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 MN : : : 1995 : 2 30 26 6 4 5 5 6 8 6 2 : 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 NY : : : 1995 : 6 15 15 17 16 12 8 6 4 1 : 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 ND : : : 1995 : 3 14 16 9 10 9 9 8 9 11 2 : 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 OR : : : 1995 : 1 12 16 25 7 6 6 5 5 7 7 1 2 : 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 1 : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 PA : : : 1995 : 18 18 18 13 13 9 5 3 2 1 : 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 WA : : : 1995 : 16 13 32 7 3 4 4 7 5 4 4 1 : 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 1995 : 1 9 17 13 12 7 10 9 11 8 3 : 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent February 1, 1999 potato stocks totaled 211 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year ago and 7 percent below two years ago. Storage accounted for 50 percent of fall production, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. Stocks by type were 2 percent reds, 10 percent round whites, 3 percent long white, and 85 percent russets, with more russets and round whites but fewer long whites than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to February 1 totaled 214 million cwt this season, up 6 percent from last year but 2 percent below the record high two years ago. January disappearance of 35.1 million cwt was 3 percent above last year but down slightly from two years ago. Shrink and loss of 22.5 million cwt was up 16 percent from last year but 3 percent below two years ago. Processing of 1998 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 108.1 million cwt, up 9 percent from the 1997 crop but 2 percent below the 1996 crop. In January, processors claimed a record 19.0 million cwt of potatoes, up 23 percent from last year and 14 percent above two years ago. The two month total (December and January) was up 14 percent from a year earlier. Eastern States stored 12.9 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 1999, down 13 percent from a year ago and 18 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings were down 13 percent and Pennsylvania's stocks were off one-third. New York's storage was up 7 percent from last year. Central States accounted for 48.0 million cwt of potato stocks this February, 8 percent above 1998 but 5 percent below 1997. North Dakota's stocks were up 18 percent and Nebraska was up 28 percent. Stocks in Wisconsin were up 5 percent from last year. Minnesota's stocks were equal to last year and Michigan's stocks fell 2 percent. Ohio's stocks were 15 percent below last year. Western States held 150.2 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, 1999, down 2 percent from last year and 7 percent below 1997. Idaho's stocks were down 2 percent from a year ago, and Oregon's were off 1 percent. Colorado and California were down 5 percent each and Montana's storage was down 3 percent. Washington's stocks were the same as last year. Fall Potatoes: Stocks on December 1, 1995-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : CA : 4,000 3,500 2,700 2,900 CO : 18,200 23,100 19,400 18,800 ID : 96,000 102,000 102,000 101,000 ME : 13,800 16,900 15,600 14,100 MI : 9,600 8,000 8,500 8,800 MN : 13,500 16,500 13,500 13,500 MT : 2,800 3,050 3,180 3,050 NE : 2,600 3,160 5,300 5,480 NY : 3,400 3,700 3,600 3,800 ND : 17,000 20,500 16,000 20,500 OH : 310 290 350 270 OR : 17,200 23,600 20,500 20,000 PA : 2,400 2,800 2,000 1,400 WA : 39,500 48,000 47,000 49,000 WI : 16,400 20,000 19,200 19,700 : 15 States : 256,710 295,100 278,830 282,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The revised December 1 stocks estimates for 1995-97 are based on the 1992-97 final production estimates published on Decmber 18, 1998. These production data are available in the Field Crops - Final Estimates 1992-97, Statistical Bulletin 947. The December 1, 1998 stocks are unchanged from the January 14, 1999 Potato Stocks report. Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 211 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.4 percent or approximately 7.17 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.8 percent or approximately 12.2 million cwt. The 10-year (1989-98) record of the differences between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 6.13 million cwt, ranging from 0.45 million to 14.2 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February Stocks, United States, 1988-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1988 : 144,625 95.7 151,050 1989 : 143,150 99.2 144,290 1990 : 154,310 94.8 162,850 1991 : 178,965 100.3 178,515 1992 : 170,385 92.3 184,560 1993 : 178,070 95.7 186,090 1994 : 196,005 96.8 202,470 1995 : 184,755 97.6 189,360 1996 : 220,465 97.5 226,080 1997 : 205,850 96.8 212,562 1998 : 211,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Most seed for use the following year is still on hand February 1st, but remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1993-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 387,885 353,052 91.0 34,833 9.0 29,076 1994 : 422,345 380,818 90.2 41,527 9.8 29,428 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.6 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 434,368 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on March 12, 1999. 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