Pot 1-2 (12-04) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 15, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Potato Stocks call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 1 Percent from Last Year The 15 major potato States held 272 million cwt of potatoes in storage December 1, 2004, up 1 percent from last year and 3 percent above 2002. Potatoes in storage account for 67 percent of the 2004 fall storage States' production, 1 percentage point above last year. Disappearance of 132 million cwt of potatoes is down 3 percent from last year and 8 percent below two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 16.8 million cwt so far this season, is up 12 percent from last year and 8 percent above the same date in 2002. Processors in the 9 major States used 70.7 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 2 percent from a year ago and 8 percent below two years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 13.4 million cwt of the total processing, down 6 percent from last year and 15 percent below the same date in 2002. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1995-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 : 403,127 271,600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2002-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2002 : 28,380 34,860 41,200 48,600 56,240 63,840 71,280 85,390 2003 : 24,310 30,730 36,260 43,640 49,570 56,380 63,770 77,530 2004 : 24,360 : ME 2/ : 2002 : 2,230 2,715 3,345 3,905 4,505 5,225 5,905 7,835 2003 : 1,590 2,085 2,720 3,420 4,095 4,740 5,400 7,270 2004 : 1,555 : WA & OR-Oth : 2002 : 33,680 39,490 44,190 51,920 58,710 64,300 71,480 79,110 2003 : 32,670 38,520 43,610 51,210 58,500 64,160 72,350 79,800 2004 : 32,270 : Other Sts 3/ : 2002 : 12,675 15,530 18,735 21,780 24,810 27,405 30,655 38,700 2003 : 13,835 16,505 19,590 22,685 25,920 29,480 32,845 42,160 2004 : 12,525 : Total : 2002 : 76,965 92,595 107,470 126,205 144,265 160,770 179,320 211,035 2003 : 72,405 87,840 102,180 120,955 138,085 154,760 174,365 206,760 2004 : 70,710 : Dehydrated 4/: 2002 : 15,675 19,660 23,710 27,950 31,915 36,105 40,455 48,940 2003 : 14,250 18,440 22,050 26,090 30,290 34,630 39,070 47,750 2004 : 13,365 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, December 1, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2003 : Crop of 2004 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Dec 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : of : : 2003 : Prod : : 2004 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,528 2,700 77 3,876 3,200 83 CO : 23,652 17,500 74 23,148 17,200 74 ID : 123,180 86,000 70 131,970 93,500 71 ME : 17,030 13,500 79 19,220 15,000 78 MI : 15,015 9,200 61 13,650 8,600 63 MN : 22,330 14,000 63 18,920 13,000 69 MT : 3,339 3,100 93 3,551 3,400 96 NE : 9,744 6,500 67 8,938 5,800 65 NY : 6,510 2,700 41 5,184 2,900 56 ND : 27,440 19,400 71 26,765 19,600 73 OH : 1,097 300 27 1,080 200 19 OR : 20,991 18,000 86 19,775 17,000 86 PA : 3,375 1,900 56 2,530 1,200 47 WA : 93,150 51,000 55 93,810 50,000 53 WI : 32,800 22,100 67 30,710 21,000 68 : 15 Sts : 403,181 267,900 66 403,127 271,600 67 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2004 totaled 26.4 million cwt. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Selected States, December 1, 2003-2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 5 5 2 2 93 93 ID : 1 1 3 5 96 94 ME : 4 3 46 45 2 3 48 49 MI : 1 1 86 89 13 10 MN : 14 9 4 4 1 1 81 86 NY : 5 5 90 90 5 5 ND : 14 13 25 20 7 11 54 56 OR : 1 1 1 1 1 98 97 PA : 4 2 96 98 WA : 1 1 1 1 6 6 92 92 WI : 7 4 29 36 64 60 : 11 St Avg: 4 3 12 12 3 4 81 81 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested by State, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 8.3 8.3 7.6 8.3 8.3 7.6 CO : 71.6 66.3 65.0 71.5 65.7 64.3 ID : 375.0 360.0 355.0 373.0 358.0 353.0 10 SW Co : 27.0 25.0 25.0 27.0 25.0 25.0 Other ID : 348.0 335.0 330.0 346.0 333.0 328.0 IN : 2.9 3.8 3.4 2.8 3.7 3.2 ME : 64.5 66.0 63.5 64.0 65.5 62.0 MA : 3.3 3.0 2.6 3.2 2.7 2.5 MI : 46.5 46.0 43.0 45.5 45.5 42.0 MN : 62.0 60.0 47.0 57.0 58.0 44.0 MT : 10.5 10.7 10.7 10.4 10.6 10.6 NE : 22.0 23.5 22.0 21.8 23.2 21.8 NV : 7.6 8.3 6.7 7.6 8.0 6.7 NM : 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 NY : 22.5 22.2 20.0 22.0 21.7 19.2 ND : 118.0 117.0 105.0 102.0 112.0 101.0 OH : 4.5 4.5 3.7 4.4 4.3 3.6 OR : 50.0 42.8 37.0 49.8 42.6 37.0 Malheur : 8.0 5.8 5.2 8.0 5.8 5.2 Other OR : 42.0 37.0 31.8 41.8 36.8 31.8 PA : 12.5 13.0 12.0 11.5 12.5 11.0 RI : 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 SD 1/ : 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 UT 1/ : 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 WA : 162.0 163.0 160.0 162.0 162.0 159.0 WI : 84.0 81.0 75.0 82.0 80.0 74.0 : Total : 1,134.1 1,106.0 1,043.7 1,105.2 1,090.9 1,027.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2004. Fall Potatoes: Yield and Production by State, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Cwt ---------- --------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : CA : 520 425 510 4,316 3,528 3,876 CO : 390 360 360 27,885 23,652 23,148 ID : 358 344 374 133,385 123,180 131,970 10 SW Co : 455 465 490 12,285 11,625 12,250 Other ID : 350 335 365 121,100 111,555 119,720 IN : 260 250 350 728 925 1,120 ME : 265 260 310 16,960 17,030 19,220 MA : 255 265 320 816 716 800 MI : 305 330 325 13,878 15,015 13,650 MN : 330 385 430 18,810 22,330 18,920 MT : 310 315 335 3,224 3,339 3,551 NE : 395 420 410 8,611 9,744 8,938 NV : 350 415 430 2,660 3,320 2,881 NM : 400 400 430 1,600 1,600 1,720 NY : 250 300 270 5,500 6,510 5,184 ND : 230 245 265 23,460 27,440 26,765 OH : 205 255 300 902 1,097 1,080 OR : 501 493 534 24,936 20,991 19,775 Malheur : 400 415 470 3,200 2,407 2,444 Other OR : 520 505 545 21,736 18,584 17,331 PA : 185 270 230 2,128 3,375 2,530 RI : 235 285 350 118 171 175 SD 1/ : 300 340 330 340 UT 1/ : 305 335 244 335 WA : 570 575 590 92,340 93,150 93,810 WI : 375 410 415 30,750 32,800 30,710 : Total : 374 376 399 413,581 410,588 409,823 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2004. Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 2001-2004 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2001 : 1,513 1,200 226 3 150 1,360 : 2002 : 4,316 3,400 208 16 399 3,901 : 2003 : 3,528 2,700 169 1 343 3,184 : 2004 : 3,876 3,200 CO : : : 2001 : 21,357 15,600 1,790 1,465 1,887 18,005 : 2002 : 27,885 20,500 1,724 1,460 2,845 23,580 : 2003 : 23,652 17,500 1,625 1,410 2,507 19,735 : 2004 : 23,148 17,200 ID : : : 2001 : 120,200 87,500 8,250 1,230 8,261 110,709 : 2002 : 133,385 92,000 7,920 1,440 8,650 123,295 : 2003 : 123,180 86,000 7,700 1,463 8,900 112,817 : 2004 : 131,970 93,500 ME : : : 2001 : 16,430 12,200 1,355 301 849 15,280 : 2002 : 16,960 12,600 1,386 310 790 15,860 : 2003 : 17,030 13,500 1,245 215 2,430 14,385 : 2004 : 19,220 15,000 MI : : : 2001 : 13,950 8,200 1,181 245 945 12,760 : 2002 : 13,878 7,900 1,099 205 1,400 12,273 : 2003 : 15,015 9,200 1,060 265 1,680 13,070 : 2004 : 13,650 8,600 MN : : : 2001 : 18,425 12,000 1,178 190 1,700 16,535 : 2002 : 18,810 12,000 1,080 130 1,400 17,280 : 2003 : 22,330 14,000 1,060 130 1,800 20,400 : 2004 : 18,920 13,000 MT : : : 2001 : 3,296 3,000 263 152 188 2,956 : 2002 : 3,224 3,100 257 145 142 2,937 : 2003 : 3,339 3,100 268 160 270 2,909 : 2004 : 3,551 3,400 NE : : : 2001 : 8,400 4,850 570 153 720 7,527 : 2002 : 8,611 5,500 611 149 612 7,850 : 2003 : 9,744 6,500 616 194 840 8,710 : 2004 : 8,938 5,800 NY : : : 2001 : 5,942 2,400 495 100 502 5,340 : 2002 : 5,500 2,400 488 100 350 5,050 : 2003 : 6,510 2,700 440 100 520 5,890 : 2004 : 5,184 2,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 2001-04 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2001 : 26,400 19,500 2,301 320 3,960 22,120 : 2002 : 23,460 16,000 2,223 450 2,650 20,360 : 2003 : 27,440 19,400 1,805 390 3,700 23,350 : 2004 : 26,765 19,600 OH : : : 2001 : 1,097 300 95 3 36 1,058 : 2002 : 902 85 95 2 11 889 : 2003 : 1,097 300 76 6 40 1,051 : 2004 : 1,080 200 OR : : : 2001 : 20,730 17,500 1,200 175 1,059 19,496 : 2002 : 24,936 17,500 1,021 266 1,386 23,284 : 2003 : 20,991 18,000 955 275 1,290 19,426 : 2004 : 19,775 17,000 PA : : : 2001 : 2,938 1,800 238 59 120 2,759 : 2002 : 2,128 1,300 238 36 78 2,014 : 2003 : 3,375 1,900 228 42 287 3,046 : 2004 : 2,530 1,200 WA : : : 2001 : 94,400 53,000 3,888 300 7,000 87,100 : 2002 : 92,340 50,000 3,912 300 6,500 85,540 : 2003 : 93,150 51,000 4,000 280 5,600 87,270 : 2004 : 93,810 50,000 WI : : : 2001 : 31,955 19,700 1,596 278 1,947 29,730 : 2002 : 30,750 20,200 1,782 265 1,738 28,747 : 2003 : 32,800 22,100 1,650 300 2,750 29,750 : 2004 : 30,710 21,000 15 Sts : : : 2001 : 387,033 258,750 24,626 4,974 29,324 352,735 : 2002 : 407,085 264,485 24,044 5,274 28,951 372,860 : 2003 : 403,181 267,900 22,897 5,231 32,957 364,993 : 2004 : 403,127 271,600 Fall Sts : : : 2001 : 393,631 25,043 5,039 29,780 358,812 : 2002 : 413,581 24,496 5,399 29,386 378,796 : 2003 : 410,588 23,249 5,254 33,579 371,755 : 2004 : 409,823 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1999-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,580 2000 : 467,529 420,301 89.9 47,228 10.1 27,137 2001 : 393,631 358,812 91.2 34,819 8.8 28,625 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,360 2004 : 409,823 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2001-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2001 : 14.8 17.4 19.8 21.8 23.6 25.1 26.7 29.3 2002 : 15.5 18.2 20.5 22.4 24.2 25.8 27.2 29.0 2003 : 15.0 17.4 20.5 22.6 25.4 27.5 29.9 33.0 2004 : 16.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2004 Potato Objective Yield Survey The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted potato objective yield surveys in the 7 major fall producing States in 2004. These 7 States account for 83 percent of the fall potato production. Sample plots were located in potato fields that were selected on a random basis using a scientifically designed sampling procedure. Field workers recorded counts and measurements. Survey data from the objective yield counts are presented in the following two tables. They are provided to show information about the crop and trends in production. Potatoes: Harvest Loss by Type, Seven Objective Yield States, 2003-2004 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Crop: Reds : Whites : Russets : All Types :Year: : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Cwt per Acre : : ID :2003: 18 30 27 27 :2004: 25 25 : : ME :2003: 15 22 17 :2004: 23 30 25 : : MN :2003: 17 22 29 24 :2004: 28 21 27 26 : : ND :2003: 10 24 26 24 :2004: 21 32 25 : : OR :2003: 12 19 17 :2004: 14 30 27 : : WA :2003: 23 34 31 :2004: 14 26 24 : : WI :2003: 18 14 16 :2004: 10 24 18 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Potatoes left in the field at time of harvest. Based on counts in potato fields selected for postharvest samples. 2/ Missing data represents insufficient number of samples. Potatoes: Number of Hills by Type, Seven Objective Yield States, 2003-2004 1/2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Reds : Whites : Russets : :------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Crop: Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. :Year: of : Hills : of : Hills : of : Hills : : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : ID :2003: 4 14,819 9 12,621 268 12,480 :2004: 4 16,372 13 12,747 259 12,628 : : ME :2003: 4 13,060 84 13,235 66 9,731 :2004: 6 12,598 77 13,495 62 10,012 : : MN :2003: 47 13,364 13 11,642 81 11,458 :2004: 34 13,649 18 11,700 82 12,601 : : ND :2003: 23 10,653 50 10,055 64 11,106 :2004: 19 11,435 58 11,134 68 12,007 : : OR :2003: 32 13,267 75 13,928 :2004: 3 9,585 19 14,917 79 13,995 : : WA :2003: 10 15,489 29 14,570 133 14,931 :2004: 6 17,155 26 16,739 146 15,306 : : WI :2003: 9 15,404 49 14,218 63 12,091 :2004: 11 13,513 41 14,554 68 12,559 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on row measurements and counts in potato fields selected for objective yield samples. 2/ Missing data represents insufficient number of samples. Potato Size and Grade Size and grade measurements came from potatoes harvested in the objective yield survey sample plots. Potatoes were harvested from six hills per sample randomly selected in each State using a scientifically designed sampling procedure. Potatoes were sent to laboratories for sizing and grading according to accepted U.S. fresh grading standards. The following tables contain percent measurements as they actually occurred. Grading Categories of Potatoes 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : No. 1 : No. 2 or : : : : and :2 Inch Minimum 2/: Processing Usable : Cull 4/ : Total State : : :1 1/2 Inch Minimum 3/: : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : Round Red : Potatoes : : MN : 73.6 81.0 21.8 14.6 4.6 4.4 100.0 100.0 : : Round White : Potatoes : : ME 5/ : 77.4 85.5 10.7 7.9 11.9 6.6 100.0 100.0 ND : 82.1 86.4 11.9 8.8 6.0 4.8 100.0 100.0 WI : 80.4 80.0 19.4 19.9 0.2 0.1 100.0 100.0 : : Long : Potatoes: : (Russet : and : Shepody) : : ID 6/ : 69.7 78.6 29.4 20.9 0.9 0.5 100.0 100.0 ME 5/ : 61.2 70.2 21.7 12.4 17.1 17.4 100.0 100.0 MN : 80.1 77.0 17.0 19.9 2.9 3.1 100.0 100.0 ND : 73.9 77.8 18.1 17.5 8.0 4.7 100.0 100.0 OR : 77.3 78.2 21.8 21.2 0.9 0.6 100.0 100.0 WA : 79.1 82.6 19.2 16.7 1.7 0.7 100.0 100.0 WI : 83.8 79.9 16.2 20.0 0.1 100.0 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Gross yield basis. 2/ Potatoes which meet the requirements for US #1, as stated in United States Standards for Grades of Potatoes, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. 3/ Potatoes which meet the requirements for US #2, as stated in United States Standards for Grades of Potatoes, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. 4/ Potatoes not meeting the requirements for US #1 or US #2, as stated in United States Standards for Grades of Potatoes, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. 5/ Percent of net yield - adjusted for field loss. 6/ Russets only. Round Potatoes: Size Categories 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : 1 1/2 : 1 7/8 : 2 : 2 1/4 : 2 1/2 : 3 1/2 : 4 Inch : State : - : - : - : - : - : - : and : and : 1 7/8 : 2 : 2 1/4 : 2 1/2 : 3 1/2 : 4 : over : Total Year :--------------------------------------------------------------: : Inches : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : 2003 : : Red : Potatoes: : MN : 7.8 6.0 15.5 21.9 47.4 1.4 100.0 : : White : Potatoes: : ME 2/ : 3.1 4.2 13.9 19.7 55.6 3.1 0.4 100.0 ND : 5.1 4.7 11.8 14.2 58.7 3.0 2.5 100.0 WI : 4.0 2.9 10.6 17.4 61.7 3.1 0.3 100.0 : : 2004 : : Red : Potatoes: : MN : 6.9 6.1 14.5 18.6 52.5 1.4 100.0 : : White : Potatoes: : ME 2/ : 1.7 3.0 9.8 16.2 63.2 5.7 0.4 100.0 ND : 4.1 3.8 11.0 19.3 55.0 5.6 1.2 100.0 WI : 3.6 2.8 8.9 13.7 64.7 5.6 0.7 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Gross yield basis. 2/ Percent of net yield - adjusted for field loss. Maine Long Potatoes (Russet & Shepody): Size Categories 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1 1/2 : 1 7/8 : 2 in. : : : : : 14 : Crop : - : - : or : : : : : and : Year : 1 7/8 : 2 : 4-6 : 6-8 : 8-10 : 10-12 : 12-14 : Over : Total :---------------------------------------------------------------: : Inches : Ounce : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : 2003 : 9.1 7.5 32.9 21.4 12.5 7.4 5.2 4.0 100.0 : 2004 : 2.8 3.7 26.5 21.0 15.2 10.3 6.0 14.5 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Percent of net yield - adjusted for field loss. Long Potatoes (Russet & Shepody): Size Categories 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State:1 1/2:1 5/8:1 7/8:2 in.: : : : : : : : : 14 : and : - : - : - : or : : : : : : : : :and : Year:1 5/8:1 7/8: 2 : 4-6 : 6 : 7 : 8 : 9 : 10 : 11 : 12 : 13 :Over:Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------: : Inches : Ounce : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : 2003 : : ID 2/: 2.2 8.6 6.2 28.8 9.7 8.8 6.5 5.9 4.6 3.9 3.5 2.4 8.9 100.0 MN : 1.6 6.4 4.9 28.4 11.8 10.7 9.1 7.1 5.7 3.7 3.4 1.7 5.5 100.0 ND : 1.1 6.3 3.8 23.5 11.1 10.9 8.5 7.7 6.0 4.8 4.3 2.4 9.6 100.0 OR : 1.7 4.7 3.6 22.9 9.9 9.2 8.0 5.9 6.1 5.0 4.1 3.3 15.6 100.0 WA : 1.0 3.9 3.8 21.7 8.5 8.5 8.4 7.7 5.8 5.6 4.6 3.7 16.8 100.0 WI : 3.0 3.4 4.5 30.9 11.4 9.9 8.3 7.0 4.4 3.9 3.1 2.5 7.7 100.0 : : 2004 : : ID 2/: 1.8 6.7 4.9 26.8 9.2 8.7 7.8 6.1 5.2 4.4 3.5 2.7 12.2 100.0 MN : 1.8 8.8 7.2 35.0 11.6 9.9 7.8 4.9 3.8 2.4 1.9 1.1 3.8 100.0 ND : 1.1 6.9 5.5 26.1 10.7 9.9 8.7 6.7 5.9 3.7 3.6 2.3 8.9 100.0 OR : 1.8 4.3 3.1 20.2 9.3 9.4 8.5 8.0 6.3 5.4 4.4 2.9 16.4 100.0 WA : 0.9 3.7 3.0 21.7 10.0 9.0 8.2 7.0 6.3 5.7 4.8 4.0 15.7 100.0 WI : 4.5 4.3 5.9 32.4 12.2 9.7 8.2 6.5 3.9 3.7 2.4 2.1 4.2 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Gross yield basis. 2/ Russets only. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2001-2003 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2001 : 21 6 20 13 20 20 : 2002 : 11 11 11 10 10 10 13 8 9 7 : 2003 : 13 12 15 14 9 8 10 7 12 CO : : : 2001 : 5 10 11 12 12 9 11 10 11 7 2 : 2002 : 4 9 10 10 11 9 11 11 10 7 8 : 2003 : 6 8 9 10 11 9 12 14 8 7 6 ID : : : 2001 : 3 12 13 8 6 7 9 10 10 10 6 6 : 2002 : 4 8 11 10 7 8 8 10 11 10 7 6 : 2003 : 4 8 10 11 8 7 8 10 11 11 6 6 ME : : : 2001 : 1 9 10 9 9 12 11 11 12 8 5 3 : 2002 : 2 7 11 9 8 10 9 10 15 10 5 4 : 2003 : 1 5 11 8 9 10 10 11 15 10 6 4 MI : : : 2001 : 3 7 8 12 11 12 13 11 11 8 3 1 : 2002 : 4 7 11 12 13 8 6 8 12 13 6 : 2003 : 1 7 8 11 11 11 10 8 13 12 8 MN : : : 2001 : 10 9 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 : 2002 : 9 9 9 7 8 7 9 7 10 12 8 5 : 2003 : 9 10 10 9 6 5 6 9 10 9 9 8 NY : : : 2001 : 4 20 18 17 15 9 7 6 4 : 2002 : 8 17 16 14 11 14 10 7 3 : 2003 : 1 8 29 20 17 8 7 6 4 ND : : : 2001 : 18 10 12 7 8 7 7 14 11 6 : 2002 : 2 22 10 9 6 9 4 8 10 13 5 2 : 2003 : 23 10 6 7 6 9 7 11 10 9 2 OR : : : 2001 : 7 13 21 8 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 3 : 2002 : 11 9 21 9 9 6 9 8 6 7 3 2 : 2003 : 10 9 19 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 5 3 PA : : : 2001 : 17 16 15 12 12 10 8 7 2 1 : 2002 : 18 14 17 14 10 9 6 5 4 3 : 2003 : 15 18 14 11 10 10 9 6 5 2 WA : : : 2001 : 11 13 25 7 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 1 : 2002 : 17 12 19 9 5 5 7 6 6 7 6 1 : 2003 : 16 12 22 7 6 5 7 6 6 7 5 1 WI : : : 2001 : 1 6 13 14 12 10 9 8 10 11 5 1 : 2002 : 1 7 12 12 12 9 9 8 12 10 6 2 : 2003 : 1 6 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 9 7 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- December Potato Stocks Up 1 Percent from Last Year The 15 major potato States held 272 million cwt of potatoes in storage December 1, 2004, up 1 percent from last year and 3 percent above 2002. Potatoes in storage account for 67 percent of the 2004 fall storage States' production, 1 percentage point above last year. Stocks by type were 3 percent red, 12 percent round white, 4 percent long white (Shepody), and 81 percent russets, with fewer reds and more long whites than a year ago. Disappearance of 132 million cwt from the start of harvest to December 1, is down 3 percent from last year and 8 percent below two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 16.8 million cwt, is up 12 percent from last year and 8 percent above the same date in 2002. Processors used 70.7 million cwt of 2004 crop potatoes so far this season, down 2 percent from a year ago and 8 percent below two years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon, processing increased less than 1 percent, while Washington and the rest of Oregon processed 1 percent less of the 2004 crop than of the 2003 crop. Dehydrating usage accounts for 13.4 million cwt of the total processing, down 6 percent from last year and 15 percent below the same date in 2002. Western States held 184 million cwt of potatoes in storage on December 1, up 3 percent from last year but 1 percent below two years ago. Idaho's potato stocks are up 9 percent from last year, California increased 19 percent, and Montana's storages held 10 percent more. Potato sheds in Washington and Colorado both stored 2 percent less than last year and Oregon sheds were down 6 percent. Central States accounted for 68.2 million cwt of potato stocks on December 1, down 5 percent from last year but 11 percent above two years ago. Wisconsin potato sheds stored 5 percent less than last year, Minnesota and Michigan stocks both decreased 7 percent, Nebraska went down 11 percent, and Ohio's potato sheds stored 33 percent less. North Dakota's sheds are the only ones in the central States storing more potatoes than last year with an increase of 1 percent. Eastern States stored 19.1 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, up 6 percent from last year and 17 percent above two years ago. Maine's stocks are up 11 percent from last year, while New York stocks increased 7 percent. Pennsylvania's sheds decreased 37 percent from a year ago. Fall Potato Production Up Less than 1 Percent from November Production of fall potatoes for 2004 is forecast at 410 million cwt, up less than 1 percent from last month but virtually unchanged from last year for comparable States. South Dakota and Utah were dropped from the program starting in 2004. Area harvested, at 1.03 million acres, is up less than 1 percent from November but 6 percent below last year. The average yield is forecast at 399 cwt per acre, 14 cwt above last month and 23 cwt above last year. If realized, this will be a record high yield, 7 cwt above the previous record set in 2000. Western States production is forecast at 281 million cwt, virtually unchanged from the November forecast but up 3 percent from last year for comparable States. Acreage harvested, at 642,200 acres, decreased 3 percent from last year, but the average yield of 437 cwt per acre is up 23 cwt from 2003. Record high yields in Idaho increased production 7 percent from the previous year. Favorable growing conditions during the season contributed to the good size and quality of the tubers. Production in Washington went up 1 percent from last year. Colorado's production decreased 2 percent as more acres were abandoned due to higher disease rates and water management issues. Oregon growers expect to harvest 19.8 million cwt of potatoes, down 6 percent from last year. This decrease is due to a 13 percent reduction in harvested acres but yields are forecast at 41 cwt above last season. California's production is up 10 percent from last year. Ideal weather and excellent soil conditions increased yields 85 cwt from 2003 to 510 cwt per acre, more than offsetting the decrease in harvested acres. Growers in Montana expect production to be 6 percent above the 2003 crop. Nevada's production is expected to decrease 13 percent. New Mexico production is expected to be 8 percent above last season. Central States production is forecast at 101 million cwt, up 1 percent from the November forecast but down 7 percent from last year for comparable States. Harvested area, estimated at 289,600 acres, is up 1 percent from November but 11 percent below a year ago. Average yields, at 349 cwt per acre, are up 2 cwt from last month and 14 cwt above a year ago. Production in Michigan is 9 percent below 2003 and Minnesota's production is down 15 percent from last year. A record high yield of 430 cwt per acre in Minnesota does not make up for the 24 percent decrease in harvested acres. Due to very wet spring conditions producers planted less potato acreage and reported higher rates of abandonment in Minnesota and Michigan. However, moderate summer temperatures led to good yields. Growers in North Dakota expect a 2 percent decrease from last season. North Dakota growers also expect a record high yield of 265 cwt per acre, 20 cwt above the pervious record set in 2003. Indiana's production increased 21 percent from last year. Wisconsin growers are expecting a record high yield of 415 cwt per acre, 5 cwt above last year. However, production is expected to decrease 6 percent due to fewer harvested acres. Nebraska growers expect production to decrease 8 percent and Ohio 2 percent. Eastern States production is forecast at 27.9 million cwt, up 2 percent from the November forecast and up less than 1 percent from last year. Area for harvest totaled 95,200 acres, up 1 percent from last month but 8 percent below last year. Average yield, at 293 cwt per acre, is up 4 cwt from November and 23 cwt above last season. Heavy rains late in the season drowned out low lying fields in Maine, New York, and Pennsylvania, resulting in quality problems and higher rates of abandonment. Record high yields in Maine and Massachusetts more than offset lower harvested acres. A 13 percent production increase from last year is expected in Maine. Massachusetts production is up 12 percent from a year ago. New York production is expected to decrease 20 percent from 2003. Pennsylvania growers expect a 25 percent decrease from last year. Rhode Island production is expected to increase 2 percent from 2003. Reliability of December 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 2.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 272 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.4 percent or approximately 6.5 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.1 percent or approximately 11.1 million cwt. The 10-year (1994-2003) record of differences between the December 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 3.2 million cwt, ranging from 7.8 million cwt above the final to 9.2 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the December 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 7 years and above 3 years. Reliability of December 1 Fall Potato Estimates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root Mean : Ten Year Record of Difference : Square Error : Between Dec 1 and Final Estimate :------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% Confidence : : Number Estimate : : Level : Quantity : of Years :Percent:----------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Below : Above : :Percent:Quantity : Avg : Small : Large : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- Million Cwt --------- : Stocks : 2.4 4.1 11.14 3.23 0.11 9.20 7 3 Production : 1.6 2.7 11.07 3.80 0.40 10.27 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final December 1 Stocks, United States, 1994-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1994 : 264,090 96.6 273,290 1995 : 252,030 98.2 256,710 1996 : 291,650 98.8 295,100 1997 : 274,250 98.4 278,830 1998 : 281,020 100.0 280,910 1999 : 274,870 99.9 275,100 2000 : 309,520 99.7 310,300 2001 : 266,520 103.0 258,750 2002 : 265,190 100.3 264,485 2003 : 267,160 99.7 267,900 2004 : 271,600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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