Pot 1-2 (3-00) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 14, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. March Potato Stocks Down 2 Percent The 15 major potato States held 170 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 2000, down 2 percent from last year and 3 percent below two years ago. Stocks accounted for 40 percent of 1999 fall production, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. Disappearance of 251 million cwt for the season, is slightly above last year and 5 percent above two years ago. Processing, at 126 million cwt is down 2 percent from last year, but 6 percent above two years ago. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1990-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 274,370 238,160 205,780 170,050 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1996-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 2/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal: 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 76,410 92,860 1999 : 27,970 34,490 40,790 49,220 : ME 3/ : 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,430 1,935 2,530 2,985 3,595 4,180 4,705 5,945 1999 : 1,375 1,670 2,310 2,995 : WA & OR-Oth: 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,630 38,890 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 74,190 83,730 1999 : 33,440 39,620 45,500 53,350 : Oth Sts 4/ : 1996 : 13,720 17,000 20,645 24,085 27,650 30,830 43,100 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,615 14,550 18,150 20,900 24,710 27,855 31,635 37,662 1999 : 11,785 14,495 17,295 19,970 : Total : 1996 : 78,240 93,985 110,585 130,745 149,610 168,290 227,535 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 74,185 90,075 109,000 128,385 149,275 167,765 186,940 220,197 1999 : 74,570 90,275 105,895 125,535 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Data not available prior to 1998. 3/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 4/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on March 1, 1999-00 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1998 : Crop of 1999 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : of : : 1999 2/ : Prod : : 2000 2/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,708 1,600 43 4,005 1,800 45 CO : 25,360 12,000 47 25,762 12,900 50 ID : 138,000 66,000 48 133,330 65,000 49 ME : 18,060 8,450 47 17,813 9,400 53 MI : 14,648 4,100 28 14,963 4,200 28 MN : 21,170 8,900 42 18,020 6,200 34 MT : 3,180 2,650 83 3,325 2,700 81 NE : 8,175 8,904 NY : 7,290 800 11 6,758 800 12 ND : 28,670 12,800 45 26,400 8,300 31 OH : 1,200 987 OR : 26,229 13,000 50 28,020 15,900 57 PA : 3,360 700 21 3,080 750 24 WA : 93,225 29,500 32 95,200 28,000 29 WI : 30,895 11,000 36 34,000 11,700 34 Other States : 2,150 2,400 : 15 States : 423,170 173,650 41 420,567 170,050 40 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 2000 crop. Seed usage in 1999 totaled 29.5 million cwt. 2/ Blank States combined into "Other States". Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1996-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1996 : 24.2 26.1 28.2 30.0 32.3 34.8 39.2 1997 : 15.3 17.3 19.3 21.3 23.5 25.6 30.0 1998 : 19.8 21.7 23.6 25.3 27.3 29.2 30.9 33.1 1999 : 17.2 21.1 23.4 25.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1996-99 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Mar 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1996: 4,600 2,200 200 23 472 4,105 : 1997: 4,200 1,800 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 1,600 171 29 720 2,959 : 1999: 4,005 1,800 CO : : : 1996: 29,175 15,500 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 : 1997: 24,993 12,800 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 12,000 1,930 1,615 2,615 21,130 : 1999: 25,762 12,900 ID : : : 1996: 142,800 70,000 8,600 1,500 10,100 131,200 : 1997: 140,314 69,500 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 138,000 66,000 8,400 1,280 9,756 126,964 : 1999: 133,330 65,000 ME : : : 1996: 21,175 11,200 1,584 395 1,800 18,980 : 1997: 19,080 10,300 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 8,450 1,496 360 1,740 15,960 : 1999: 17,813 9,400 MI : : : 1996: 13,800 3,300 768 300 1,300 12,200 : 1997: 14,250 3,800 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,648 4,100 888 200 1,348 13,100 : 1999: 14,963 4,200 MN : : : 1996: 24,600 11,000 1,348 445 4,158 19,997 : 1997: 20,440 8,800 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 8,900 1,400 254 1,440 19,476 : 1999: 18,020 6,200 MT : : : 1996: 3,213 2,700 239 137 221 2,855 : 1997: 3,328 2,350 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 2,650 253 145 265 2,770 : 1999: 3,325 2,700 NE : : : 1996: 4,402 451 169 439 3,794 : 1997: 7,761 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 469 166 881 7,128 : 1999: 8,904 NY : : : 1996: 7,420 800 583 127 341 6,952 : 1997: 7,150 800 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 800 572 110 330 6,850 : 1999: 6,758 800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1996-99 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Mar 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1996: 28,820 12,400 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 : 1997: 22,000 9,300 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 12,800 2,250 395 2,840 25,435 : 1999: 26,400 8,300 OH : : : 1996: 1,275 109 5 35 1,235 : 1997: 1,170 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 100 8 37 1,155 : 1999: 987 OR : : : 1996: 30,124 16,000 1,345 305 2,560 27,259 : 1997: 27,319 13,000 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 13,000 1,382 195 2,206 23,828 : 1999: 28,020 15,900 PA : : : 1996: 4,160 880 266 81 320 3,759 : 1997: 3,173 890 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 700 261 50 252 3,058 : 1999: 3,080 750 WA : : : 1996: 94,990 30,000 3,648 300 6,800 87,890 : 1997: 88,160 29,500 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 29,500 4,080 300 6,500 86,425 : 1999: 95,200 28,000 WI : : : 1996: 33,150 11,300 1,710 320 1,425 31,405 : 1997: 30,175 10,600 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 11,000 1,720 265 2,360 28,270 : 1999: 34,000 11,700 Oth Sts: : : 1996: 1,930 : 1997: 2,430 : 1998: 2,150 : 1999: 2,400 15 Sts : : : 1996: 443,704 189,210 24,964 5,952 39,216 398,536 : 1997: 413,513 175,870 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 423,170 173,650 25,372 5,372 33,290 384,508 : 1999: 420,567 170,050 23 Fall: : : 1996: 454,388 25,608 6,054 40,087 408,247 : 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 432,737 25,929 5,584 34,231 392,922 : 1999: 429,847 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Nebraska and Ohio stocks combined into "Other States". Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1996-98 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1996 : : 1997 : : 1998 : 13 12 13 11 10 12 10 8 7 4 CO : : : 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 : 1998 : 5 8 9 12 10 10 12 11 10 9 4 ID : : : 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 : 1998 : 6 11 20 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 6 6 ME : : : 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 : 1998 : 1 7 9 9 9 10 11 14 12 9 9 MI : : : 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 : 1998 : 3 8 9 9 9 12 14 9 12 10 5 MN : : : 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 : 1998 : 11 16 14 10 5 7 6 8 9 6 8 NY : : : 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 : 1998 : 7 16 16 16 15 11 8 6 4 1 ND : : : 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 : 1998 : 3 13 14 10 10 8 7 7 9 10 6 3 OR : : : 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 1 : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 : 1998 : 2 12 15 27 8 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 2 PA : : : 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 : 1998 : 14 12 11 12 15 11 9 7 6 2 1 WA : : : 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 : 1998 : 16 13 25 7 3 5 6 7 5 6 6 1 WI : : : 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 : 1998 : 1 6 18 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 2 Percent March 1, 2000 potato stocks totaled 170 million cwt, down 2 percent from a year ago and 3 percent below two years ago. Storage accounted for 40 percent of fall production, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to March 1 totaled 251 million cwt this season, up slightly from last year and 5 percent above two years ago. February disappearance of 35.7 million cwt was 1 percent below last year and down 3 percent from two years ago. Seasonal shrink and loss of 25.7 million cwt was up 1 percent from last year and 20 percent above two years ago. Processing of 1999 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 126 million cwt, down 2 percent from the 1998 crop but 6 percent above the 1997 crop. In February, processors used 19.6 million cwt of potatoes, up 1 percent from the last two years. Eastern States stored 11.0 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, 2000, up 10 percent from a year ago but 9 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings were up 11 percent, Pennsylvania's were up 7 percent, and New York's stocks were the same compared with last year. Central States accounted for 32.8 million cwt of potato stocks this March, down 16 percent from 1999 and 6 percent below 1998. North Dakota's stocks fell 35 percent from last year and Minnesota's stocks dropped by 30 percent. Michigan was up 2 percent and Wisconsin gained 6 percent from last year. Western States held 126 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 2000, up 1 percent from last year but 2 percent below 1998. Oregon's stocks were up 22 percent from a year ago, but were mostly offset by a 5 percent decline in Washington and a 2 percent dip in Idaho. Stocks in the three Northwest States were up less than 1 percent from last year and accounted for 64 percent of U. S. stocks. Colorado's stocks were up 8 percent and Montana's were up 2 percent. California's potato stocks were up 13 percent from last year. Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 170 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.8 percent or approximately 6.4 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.5 percent or approximately 11.1 million cwt. The 10-year (1990-99) record of differences between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates were up an average of 4.9 million cwt, ranging from 13.1 million cwt below the final to 0.45 million cwt above. During the 10-year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 8 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March 1 Stocks, United States, 1989-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1989 : 115,780 99.3 116,600 1990 : 126,030 93.7 134,470 1991 : 146,180 100.2 145,820 1992 : 139,665 91.4 152,795 1993 : 146,080 95.2 153,435 1994 : 163,305 96.3 169,570 1995 : 152,255 97.6 156,020 1996 : 184,565 97.5 189,210 1997 : 170,325 96.8 175,870 1998 : 174,100 100.3 173,650 1999 : 170,050 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.7 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.3 percent. Most seed for use the following year is still on hand, but remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1994-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1994 : 422,345 380,818 90.2 41,527 9.8 29,428 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.6 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,516 1999 : 429,847 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 13, 2000. 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