Pot 1-2 (5-99) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 14, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. May Potato Stocks Down 6 Percent The 15 major potato States held 87.6 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1999, down 6 percent from last year and 15 percent below May 1997. Storage accounted for 21 percent of 1998 fall production, 1 percent less than a year ago. Disappearance, at 337 million cwt, is up 5 percent from last year but 1 percent below the record high from the 1996 crop. Processor usage in the eight major States, totaled 168 million cwt, up 8 percent from last year. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1989-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,585 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 424,897 282,300 246,220 211,100 174,100 130,890 87,640 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 : ME 2/ : 1995 : 1,455 1,850 2,430 2,850 3,435 3,965 5,725 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,180 1,710 2,260 2,983 3,595 4,190 : WA & OR - Other : 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,460 38,895 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1995 : 12,650 15,630 18,815 21,985 25,510 28,610 33,580 1996 : 13,720 17,000 20,645 24,085 27,650 30,830 43,100 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,020 13,785 17,510 21,185 24,485 28,370 : Total : 1995 : 71,415 87,690 103,965 121,645 139,735 156,625 198,805 1996 : 78,240 93,985 110,585 130,745 149,610 168,290 227,535 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 73,170 89,090 108,090 128,668 149,050 168,290 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on May 1, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1997 : Crop of 1998 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : May 1, : of : Prod : May 1, : of : : 1998 : Prod : : 1999 1/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,200 1,200 29 3,708 900 24 CO : 24,993 7,700 31 25,360 6,400 25 ID : 140,314 41,500 30 139,650 39,000 28 ME : 19,080 4,500 24 18,060 3,800 21 MI : 14,250 1,000 7 14,725 800 5 MN : 20,440 4,500 22 21,170 4,300 20 MT : 3,328 150 5 3,180 270 8 NE 2/ : 7,761 300 8,175 400 NY : 7,150 100 1 7,290 140 2 ND : 22,000 4,700 21 28,670 6,500 23 OH 2/ : 1,170 1,200 OR : 27,319 6,500 24 26,229 7,000 27 PA : 3,173 190 6 3,360 130 4 WA : 88,160 16,000 18 93,225 14,500 16 WI : 30,175 4,500 15 30,895 3,500 11 : 15 States : 413,513 92,840 22 424,897 87,640 21 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1999 potatoes; 1998 crop seed usage total 30 million cwt. 2/ Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past five years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1993-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 387,885 353,052 91.000 34,833 9.0 29,076 1994 : 422,345 380,818 90.200 41,527 9.8 29,428 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.600 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.800 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.500 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 434,368 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: May 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1995: 5,330 1,100 242 10 460 4,860 : 1996: 4,600 1,100 200 23 472 4,105 : 1997: 4,200 1,200 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 900 CO : : : 1995: 23,808 6,200 1,950 1,285 2,048 20,475 : 1996: 29,175 9,900 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 : 1997: 24,993 7,700 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 6,400 ID : : : 1995: 132,657 36,000 8,700 1,785 8,920 121,952 : 1996: 142,800 41,000 8,600 1,500 10,100 131,200 : 1997: 140,314 41,500 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 139,650 39,000 ME : : : 1995: 17,160 2,800 1,716 420 1,025 15,715 : 1996: 21,175 5,300 1,584 395 1,800 18,980 : 1997: 19,080 4,500 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 3,800 MI : : : 1995: 16,350 1,200 962 168 690 15,492 : 1996: 13,800 1,000 768 300 1,300 12,200 : 1997: 14,250 1,000 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,725 800 MN : : : 1995: 20,790 4,500 1,573 346 1,757 18,687 : 1996: 24,600 5,500 1,348 445 4,158 19,997 : 1997: 20,440 4,500 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 4,300 MT : : : 1995: 2,940 340 239 128 147 2,665 : 1996: 3,213 300 239 137 221 2,855 : 1997: 3,328 150 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 270 NE 1/ : : : 1995: 3,680 200 292 187 284 3,209 : 1996: 4,402 390 451 169 439 3,794 : 1997: 7,761 300 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 400 NY : : : 1995: 7,425 150 594 155 290 6,980 : 1996: 7,420 160 583 127 341 6,952 : 1997: 7,150 100 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 140 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: May 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1995: 25,410 4,500 2,211 280 2,800 22,330 : 1996: 28,820 7,300 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 : 1997: 22,000 4,700 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 6,500 OH 1/ : : : 1995: 1,404 107 4 10 1,390 : 1996: 1,275 109 5 35 1,235 : 1997: 1,170 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 OR : : : 1995: 24,788 4,500 1,475 148 1,450 23,190 : 1996: 30,124 9,200 1,345 305 2,560 27,259 : 1997: 27,319 6,500 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 7,000 PA : : : 1995: 4,080 180 314 20 102 3,958 : 1996: 4,160 160 266 81 320 3,759 : 1997: 3,173 190 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 130 WA : : : 1995: 80,850 12,500 3,912 300 6,400 74,150 : 1996: 94,990 16,500 3,648 300 6,800 87,890 : 1997: 88,160 16,000 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 14,500 WI : : : 1995: 28,113 1,700 1,806 298 1,350 26,465 : 1996: 33,150 5,400 1,710 320 1,425 31,405 : 1997: 30,175 4,500 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 3,500 15 Sts : : : 1995: 394,785 75,870 26,093 5,534 27,733 361,518 : 1996: 443,704 103,210 24,964 5,952 39,216 398,536 : 1997: 413,513 92,840 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 424,897 87,640 23 Fall: : : 1995: 404,852 26,813 5,569 28,604 370,679 : 1996: 454,388 25,608 6,054 40,087 408,247 : 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 434,368 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1995-97 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CO : : : 1995 : 4 8 10 10 11 10 10 12 10 9 6 : 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 ID : : : 1995 : 4 16 17 6 7 6 6 9 8 8 7 6 : 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 ME : : : 1995 : 2 5 7 9 9 11 11 17 18 7 4 : 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 MI : : : 1995 : 5 11 15 13 13 11 6 9 11 6 : 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 MN : : : 1995 : 2 30 26 6 4 5 5 6 8 6 2 : 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 NY : : : 1995 : 6 15 15 17 16 12 8 6 4 1 : 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 ND : : : 1995 : 3 14 16 9 10 9 9 8 9 11 2 : 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 OR : : : 1995 : 1 12 16 25 7 6 6 5 5 7 7 1 2 : 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 1 : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 PA : : : 1995 : 18 18 18 13 13 9 5 3 2 1 : 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 WA : : : 1995 : 16 13 32 7 3 4 4 7 5 4 4 1 : 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 1995 : 1 9 17 13 12 7 10 9 11 8 3 : 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 6 Percent May 1, 1999 potato stocks totaled 87.6 million cwt, down 6 percent from a year ago and 15 percent below two years ago. Storage accounted for 21 percent of 1998 fall production, 1 percent less than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to May 1 totaled 337 million cwt, up 5 percent from last year but 1 percent below the record high two years ago. April disappearance totaled 43.3 million cwt, 5 percent above last year but down 3 percent from April 1997. Shrink and loss to date is estimated at 30.1 million cwt, up 18 percent from last year. Processing of 1998 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 168 million cwt, up 8 percent from the 1997 crop and equal to the 1996 crop. April processing used a record 19.2 million cwt of raw potatoes, up 9 percent from last year and 3 percent above two years ago. Eastern States stored 4.1 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1999, down 15 percent from a year ago and 28 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings were down 16 percent from a year ago and Pennsylvania's were off 32 percent. New York's stocks were up 40 percent. Central States accounted for 15.5 million cwt of potato stocks this May, up 3 percent from May 1998 but 21 percent below two years ago. North Dakota's stocks were up 38 percent from last year. Wisconsin's stocks were off 22 percent, Michigan was down 20 percent, and Minnesota was down 4 percent from last year. Western States held 68.1 million cwt of potatoes in storage on May 1, 1999, down 7 percent from last year and 15 percent below May 1997. Idaho's stocks were down 6 percent and account for 57 percent of the Western States' total. California's stocks were down 25 percent and Colorado dropped 17 percent. Washington's stocks were down 9 percent but Oregon stored 8 percent more than a year ago. Montana's seed movement is late with remaining storage 80 percent above last year at this time. Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 7.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 87.6 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 7.6 percent or approximately 6.7 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 13.1 percent or about 11.5 million cwt. The 10-year (1989-98) record of the differences between the May 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.7 million cwt, ranging from 0.6 million to 11.5 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the May 1 stocks forecast has been below the final 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May Stocks, United States, 1988-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1988 : 54,390 91.6 59,355 1989 : 50,125 98.9 50,675 1990 : 54,400 86.3 63,040 1991 : 70,020 101.3 69,110 1992 : 63,550 84.7 75,040 1993 : 68,060 93.4 72,860 1994 : 81,495 93.0 87,600 1995 : 72,210 95.2 75,870 1996 : 100,780 97.6 103,210 1997 : 87,113 93.8 92,840 1998 : 87,640 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 15, 1999. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http://www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Send an e-mail message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. In the body of the message type the word: list. AUTOFAX ACCESS NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. Document 0411 is a list of available reports. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-834-0125 FAX: 703-834-0110 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.