Pot 1-2 (12-07) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 14, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 4 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 270 million cwt of potatoes in storage December 1, 2007, up 4 percent from last year and 6 percent above December 1, 2005. Potatoes in storage account for 68 percent of the 2007 fall storage States' production, up 1 percentage point from last year. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 4.20 million cwt on December 1, 2007, up 5 percent from last year. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Potato disappearance, at 130 million cwt, is virtually unchanged from last year but up 8 percent from 2005. Season to date shrink and loss, at 13.9 million cwt, is up 5 percent from 2006 and 9 percent above 2 years ago. Processors in the 9 major States have used 72.0 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 3 percent from a year ago but 10 percent above 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 12.7 million cwt of the total processing, down 13 percent from last year but 7 percent above the same date in 2005. Table of Contents Page December Stocks ............................................................... 3 Monthly Processing, 9 States .................................................. 4 Stocks by Type ................................................................ 4 Area, Yield, and Production By Season and State ................................................... 5 By State and United States ............................................ 8 Disposition and December Stocks 2004-2007 ..................................... 10 Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States .................. 12 Shrinkage and Loss ............................................................ 12 Potato Objective Yield Survey Results ......................................... 12 Potato Size and Grade ......................................................... 14 Farm Marketings ............................................................... 17 Stocks Narrative .............................................................. 18 Production Narrative .......................................................... 19 Reliability ................................................................... 20 December Stocks: Preliminary vs. Final 1997-2007 ............................. 20 Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, December 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2006 : Crop of 2007 :----------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Dec 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : of : : 2006 : Prod : : 2007 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,870 1,800 47 4,223 2,000 47 CO : 22,686 17,200 76 20,981 15,200 72 ID : 128,915 90,000 70 131,650 94,000 71 ME : 17,980 14,400 80 16,530 12,700 77 MI : 14,190 8,100 57 14,700 9,500 65 MN : 20,400 13,300 65 20,680 13,500 65 MT : 3,518 3,300 94 3,696 3,600 97 NE : 8,730 5,800 66 7,800 5,200 67 NY : 5,700 3,000 53 5,216 2,800 54 ND : 25,480 17,300 68 23,660 14,500 61 OR : 18,533 16,000 86 20,238 18,000 89 WA : 89,900 49,000 55 102,300 60,000 59 WI : 29,370 20,100 68 28,160 19,000 67 : 13 States : 389,272 259,300 67 399,834 270,000 68 : Klamath Basin 2/ : 4,000 4,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2007 totaled 26.4 million cwt. 2/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1998-2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : : : : : : : : Year : Production : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Cwt : 1998 1/ : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 1/ : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 374,298 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,272 259,300 226,100 192,600 159,700 121,000 79,050 44,460 2007 : 399,834 270,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 15 major States. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.1 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 8.9 percent. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2005-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 :Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2005 :22,840 29,300 35,970 43,300 50,820 57,830 65,030 77,360 2006 :27,090 34,070 41,350 48,940 56,650 63,680 71,220 85,630 2007 :26,230 : ME 2/ : 2005 : 1,365 1,880 2,485 3,090 3,800 4,450 5,130 6,825 2006 : 1,755 2,360 2,910 3,465 4,185 4,810 5,470 7,560 2007 : 1,695 : WA & OR-Oth : 2005 :30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 69,360 78,550 2006 :30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 56,690 63,170 70,410 77,355 2007 :28,995 : Other Sts 3/ : 2005 :11,055 14,070 17,005 19,895 22,520 25,270 27,740 35,535 2006 :14,270 17,695 21,290 24,545 28,040 31,370 34,830 43,315 2007 :15,120 : Total : 2005 :65,570 81,145 96,005 114,575 132,460 149,405 167,260 198,270 2006 :74,095 91,185 107,740 126,880 145,565 163,030 181,930 213,860 2007 :72,040 : Dehydrated 4/ : 2005 :11,920 15,655 19,225 22,765 26,605 30,065 34,130 41,625 2006 :14,590 19,250 23,635 27,885 32,210 36,480 40,915 49,370 2007 :12,740 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 10 Selected States, December 1, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds :Round Whites : Long Whites : Yellows 1/ : Russets State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 3 4 13 3 11 84 82 ID : 2 2 2 3 1 96 94 ME : 2 3 38 42 1 2 60 52 MI : 1 1 87 86 1 12 12 MN : 12 12 4 8 2 82 80 NY : 5 16 90 69 13 5 2 ND : 15 14 17 16 2 4 66 66 OR : 1 1 2 4 2 2 1 95 92 WA : 2 3 1 4 5 7 1 92 85 WI : 4 4 14 34 82 62 : 10 St Avg : 4 4 10 11 2 3 2 84 80 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates began in 2007. Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Planted : Area Harvested Group and :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Winter 1/ : CA : 14.0 12.0 11.5 14.0 12.0 11.5 FL 2/ : 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.5 : Total : 20.0 17.7 11.5 19.8 17.5 11.5 : Spring 1/ : AZ : 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.3 3.9 4.0 CA : 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.1 15.3 15.5 FL 2/ : 23.6 23.1 27.8 23.2 22.6 27.2 Hastings : 17.3 17.0 16.5 17.0 16.6 16.2 Other FL : 6.3 6.1 11.3 6.2 6.0 11.0 NC : 15.5 17.7 16.0 15.0 15.5 14.5 TX : 9.5 10.7 9.7 9.1 10.2 9.2 : Total : 68.0 70.7 73.0 66.7 67.5 70.4 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Cwt ---------- --------- 1,000 Cwt -------- : Winter 1/ : CA : 250 260 215 3,500 3,120 2,473 FL 2/ : 240 250 1,392 1,375 : Total : 247 257 215 4,892 4,495 2,473 : Spring 1/ : AZ : 275 300 280 1,183 1,170 1,120 CA : 405 395 395 6,116 6,044 6,123 FL 2/ : 281 285 284 6,527 6,441 7,726 Hastings : 280 285 280 4,760 4,731 4,536 Other FL : 285 285 290 1,767 1,710 3,190 NC : 190 210 190 2,850 3,255 2,755 TX : 225 280 320 2,048 2,856 2,944 : Total : 281 293 294 18,724 19,766 20,668 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Winter potatoes combined with spring potatoes in 2007. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Planted : Area Harvested Group and :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Summer 1/ : AL : 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.3 CA : 6.2 6.3 7.0 6.2 6.3 7.0 CO : 5.0 3.7 3.0 4.9 3.6 2.8 DE : 3.3 3.0 2.0 3.1 2.1 2.0 IL : 5.7 6.5 6.3 5.5 6.3 6.1 KS : 5.1 6.0 4.5 5.0 5.7 4.4 MD : 3.5 4.0 3.0 3.4 2.9 3.0 MO : 6.5 7.8 7.0 6.3 7.6 6.7 NJ : 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.3 TX : 9.4 10.5 11.2 8.7 9.7 8.9 VA : 5.0 6.0 6.0 4.9 5.6 5.8 : Total : 53.4 58.0 53.8 51.4 53.9 50.3 : Fall : CA : 7.6 8.6 8.2 7.6 8.6 8.2 CO : 58.2 59.9 59.2 58.0 59.7 59.1 ID : 325.0 335.0 350.0 323.0 334.0 349.0 10 SW Co : 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 Other ID : 304.0 314.0 329.0 302.0 313.0 328.0 ME : 57.5 58.5 57.1 56.2 58.0 57.0 MA : 2.5 3.1 2.7 2.4 3.1 2.7 MI : 43.0 43.5 42.5 42.8 43.0 42.0 MN : 46.0 51.0 50.0 43.0 48.0 47.0 MT : 10.7 10.6 11.3 10.6 10.5 11.2 NE : 19.5 19.5 20.5 19.4 19.4 20.0 NV : 5.5 6.6 7.5 5.5 6.6 7.5 NM : 4.7 5.0 5.5 4.2 5.0 5.5 NY : 20.5 20.6 19.0 20.1 19.0 18.3 ND : 92.0 100.0 97.0 82.0 98.0 91.0 OH : 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.1 3.0 OR : 37.3 35.0 36.5 37.1 35.0 36.5 Malheur : 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5 Other OR : 33.5 31.5 33.0 33.3 31.5 33.0 PA : 11.5 11.0 10.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 RI : 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 WA : 154.0 156.0 165.0 154.0 155.0 165.0 WI : 68.0 66.0 64.5 68.0 66.0 64.0 : Total : 967.7 993.7 1,010.8 949.0 983.0 997.6 : US : 1,109.1 1,140.1 1,149.1 1,086.9 1,121.9 1,129.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Potatoes: Yield and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Yield : Production Group and :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Cwt ---------- --------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : Summer 1/ : AL : 150 150 120 195 240 156 CA : 355 335 360 2,201 2,111 2,520 CO : 375 360 360 1,838 1,296 1,008 DE : 260 240 260 806 504 520 IL : 380 395 400 2,090 2,489 2,440 KS : 360 320 345 1,800 1,824 1,518 MD : 260 320 300 884 928 900 MO : 340 315 305 2,142 2,394 2,044 NJ : 255 240 255 536 600 587 TX : 465 440 420 4,046 4,268 3,738 VA : 210 270 185 1,029 1,512 1,073 : Total : 342 337 328 17,567 18,166 16,504 : Fall : CA : 435 450 515 3,306 3,870 4,223 CO : 395 380 355 22,910 22,686 20,981 ID : 366 386 377 118,288 128,915 131,650 10 SW Co : 470 475 490 9,870 9,975 10,290 Other ID : 359 380 370 108,418 118,940 121,360 ME : 275 310 290 15,455 17,980 16,530 MA : 260 240 295 624 744 797 MI : 325 330 350 13,910 14,190 14,700 MN : 410 425 440 17,630 20,400 20,680 MT : 325 335 330 3,445 3,518 3,696 NE : 425 450 390 8,245 8,730 7,800 NV : 425 445 390 2,338 2,937 2,925 NM : 420 420 420 1,764 2,100 2,310 NY : 260 300 285 5,226 5,700 5,216 ND : 250 260 260 20,500 25,480 23,660 OH : 240 325 325 864 1,008 975 OR : 594 530 554 22,023 18,533 20,238 Malheur : 450 435 455 1,710 1,523 1,593 Other OR : 610 540 565 20,313 17,010 18,645 PA : 250 260 220 2,750 2,730 2,200 RI : 210 260 300 105 130 180 WA : 620 580 620 95,480 89,900 102,300 WI : 410 445 440 27,880 29,370 28,160 : Total : 403 406 410 382,743 398,921 409,221 : US : 390 393 397 423,926 441,348 448,866 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.3 AZ : 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.3 3.9 4.0 CA : 42.9 42.2 42.2 42.9 42.2 42.2 CO : 63.2 63.6 62.2 62.9 63.3 61.9 DE : 3.3 3.0 2.0 3.1 2.1 2.0 FL : 29.6 28.8 27.8 29.0 28.1 27.2 ID : 325.0 335.0 350.0 323.0 334.0 349.0 IL : 5.7 6.5 6.3 5.5 6.3 6.1 KS : 5.1 6.0 4.5 5.0 5.7 4.4 ME : 57.5 58.5 57.1 56.2 58.0 57.0 MD : 3.5 4.0 3.0 3.4 2.9 3.0 MA : 2.5 3.1 2.7 2.4 3.1 2.7 MI : 43.0 43.5 42.5 42.8 43.0 42.0 MN : 46.0 51.0 50.0 43.0 48.0 47.0 MO : 6.5 7.8 7.0 6.3 7.6 6.7 MT : 10.7 10.6 11.3 10.6 10.5 11.2 NE : 19.5 19.5 20.5 19.4 19.4 20.0 NV : 5.5 6.6 7.5 5.5 6.6 7.5 NJ : 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.3 NM : 4.7 5.0 5.5 4.2 5.0 5.5 NY : 20.5 20.6 19.0 20.1 19.0 18.3 NC : 15.5 17.7 16.0 15.0 15.5 14.5 ND : 92.0 100.0 97.0 82.0 98.0 91.0 OH : 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.1 3.0 OR : 37.3 35.0 36.5 37.1 35.0 36.5 PA : 11.5 11.0 10.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 RI : 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 TX : 18.9 21.2 20.9 17.8 19.9 18.1 VA : 5.0 6.0 6.0 4.9 5.6 5.8 WA : 154.0 156.0 165.0 154.0 155.0 165.0 WI : 68.0 66.0 64.5 68.0 66.0 64.0 : US : 1,109.1 1,140.1 1,149.1 1,086.9 1,121.9 1,129.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Yield and Production by State and United States, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield 1/ : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- Cwt ----------- ---------- 1,000 Cwt ---------- : AL : 150 150 120 195 240 156 AZ : 275 300 280 1,183 1,170 1,120 CA : 353 359 363 15,123 15,145 15,339 CO : 393 379 355 24,748 23,982 21,989 DE : 260 240 260 806 504 520 FL : 273 278 284 7,919 7,816 7,726 ID : 366 386 377 118,288 128,915 131,650 IL : 380 395 400 2,090 2,489 2,440 KS : 360 320 345 1,800 1,824 1,518 ME : 275 310 290 15,455 17,980 16,530 MD : 260 320 300 884 928 900 MA : 260 240 295 624 744 797 MI : 325 330 350 13,910 14,190 14,700 MN : 410 425 440 17,630 20,400 20,680 MO : 340 315 305 2,142 2,394 2,044 MT : 325 335 330 3,445 3,518 3,696 NE : 425 450 390 8,245 8,730 7,800 NV : 425 445 390 2,338 2,937 2,925 NJ : 255 240 255 536 600 587 NM : 420 420 420 1,764 2,100 2,310 NY : 260 300 285 5,226 5,700 5,216 NC : 190 210 190 2,850 3,255 2,755 ND : 250 260 260 20,500 25,480 23,660 OH : 240 325 325 864 1,008 975 OR : 594 530 554 22,023 18,533 20,238 PA : 250 260 220 2,750 2,730 2,200 RI : 210 260 300 105 130 180 TX : 342 358 369 6,094 7,124 6,682 VA : 210 270 185 1,029 1,512 1,073 WA : 620 580 620 95,480 89,900 102,300 WI : 410 445 440 27,880 29,370 28,160 : US : 390 393 397 423,926 441,348 448,866 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Derived Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 Storage States and Fall Season States, 2004-2007 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : :2004: 3,648 3,000 213 1 292 3,355 :2005: 3,306 1,600 249 331 2,975 :2006: 3,870 1,800 210 480 3,390 :2007: 4,223 2,000 CO : : :2004: 23,791 18,000 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 :2005: 22,910 17,200 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 :2006: 22,686 17,200 1,480 1,140 2,056 19,490 :2007: 20,981 15,200 ID : : :2004: 131,970 93,500 7,150 1,250 10,902 119,818 :2005: 118,288 85,000 7,370 1,230 7,800 109,258 :2006: 128,915 90,000 7,875 1,188 8,200 119,527 :2007: 131,650 94,000 ME : : :2004: 19,065 15,000 1,231 190 4,900 13,975 :2005: 15,455 12,500 1,264 242 1,183 14,030 :2006: 17,980 14,400 1,236 228 1,482 16,270 :2007: 16,530 12,700 MI : : :2004: 13,650 8,000 860 194 1,656 11,800 :2005: 13,910 7,900 1,044 182 1,728 12,000 :2006: 14,190 8,100 961 180 1,800 12,210 :2007: 14,700 9,500 MN : : :2004: 18,920 13,000 837 100 1,750 17,070 :2005: 17,630 13,500 1,040 140 1,600 15,890 :2006: 20,400 13,300 1,190 250 1,700 18,450 :2007: 20,680 13,500 MT : : :2004: 3,551 3,500 257 156 276 3,119 :2005: 3,445 3,400 244 156 210 3,079 :2006: 3,518 3,300 270 180 130 3,208 :2007: 3,696 3,600 NE : : :2004: 9,288 6,300 519 212 906 8,170 :2005: 8,245 5,600 515 231 834 7,180 :2006: 8,730 5,800 521 200 775 7,755 :2007: 7,800 5,200 NY : : :2004: 5,184 2,300 451 100 513 4,571 :2005: 5,226 2,900 453 100 491 4,635 :2006: 5,700 3,000 460 100 480 5,120 :2007: 5,216 2,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 13 States and Fall Season, 2004-2007 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop: : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year:Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : :2004: 26,765 19,600 1,794 240 2,825 23,700 :2005: 20,500 14,000 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 :2006: 25,480 17,300 1,853 240 2,290 22,950 :2007: 23,660 14,500 OH 1/ : : :2004: 1,080 200 73 6 33 1,041 :2005: :2006: :2007: OR : : :2004: 19,775 17,000 955 241 1,264 18,270 :2005: 22,023 19,000 837 255 1,392 20,376 :2006: 18,533 16,000 880 260 1,020 17,253 :2007: 20,238 18,000 PA 1/ : : :2004: 2,640 1,600 253 39 216 2,385 :2005: :2006: :2007: WA : : :2004: 93,810 50,000 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 :2005: 95,480 52,500 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 :2006: 89,900 49,000 4,290 240 5,500 84,160 :2007: 102,300 60,000 WI : : :2004: 30,450 20,100 1,360 260 1,985 28,205 :2005: 27,880 18,700 1,452 300 1,380 26,200 :2006: 29,370 20,100 1,430 245 1,925 27,200 :2007: 28,160 19,000 13 States 2/ : : :2004: 403,587 271,100 21,316 4,529 35,404 363,654 :2005: 374,298 253,800 21,766 4,516 26,409 343,373 :2006: 389,272 259,300 22,656 4,451 27,838 356,983 :2007: 399,834 270,000 Fall States : : :2004: 410,253 21,593 4,549 35,923 369,781 :2005: 382,743 22,415 4,545 27,115 351,083 :2006: 398,921 23,337 4,482 28,576 365,863 :2007: 409,221 Klamath Basin 3/: : :2004: :2005: :2006: 4,000 :2007: 4,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stock estimates discontinued in 2005. 2/ 15 Storage States in 2004. 3/ Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2002-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,768 2005 : 382,743 351,083 91.7 31,660 8.3 25,659 2006 : 398,921 365,863 91.7 33,058 8.3 26,437 2007 : 409,221 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2004-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2004 1/ : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 26.4 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 27.8 2007 : 13.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 Fall Storage States. 2007 Potato Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted potato objective yield surveys in the 7 major fall producing States in 2007. These 7 States account for 84 percent of the fall potato production. Sample plots were located in potato fields that were selected on a random basis using a scientifically designed sampling procedure. Field workers recorded counts and measurements. Survey data from the objective yield counts are presented in the following two tables and are provided to show information about the crop and trends in production. Fall Potatoes: Harvest Loss by Type, Seven Objective Yield States, 2006-2007 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State:Crop: Reds : Whites : Yellows 3/ : Russets : All Types :Year: : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Cwt per Acre : : ID :2006: 31 30 :2007: 26 27 : : ME :2006: 20 23 21 :2007: 18 16 17 : : MN :2006: 10 28 24 20 :2007: 10 15 30 21 : : ND :2006: 13 21 38 28 :2007: 17 22 34 27 : : OR :2006: 18 36 34 :2007: 44 29 30 : : WA :2006: 15 20 19 :2007: 14 20 19 : : WI :2006: 24 10 13 14 :2007: 13 11 11 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Potatoes left in the field at time of harvest. Based on counts in potato fields selected for postharvest samples. 2/ Missing data represents insufficient number of samples. 3/ Field counts began in 2007. Fall Potatoes: Number of Hills by Type, Seven Objective Yield States, 2006-2007 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Reds : Whites : Yellows 3/ : Russets : :------------------------------------------------------------------- State:Crop :Number :Avg No. :Number :Avg No. :Number :Avg No. :Number :Avg No. :Year : of : Hills : of : Hills : of : Hills : of : Hills : :Samples:per Acre:Samples:per Acre:Samples:per Acre:Samples:per Acre -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : ID : 2006: 6 13,811 4 12,019 276 12,480 : 2007: 3 17,356 8 14,131 4 13,626 264 12,134 : : ME : 2006: 5 14,532 70 12,689 64 10,208 : 2007: 6 12,874 63 13,098 11 13,418 68 9,629 : : MN : 2006: 36 12,331 10 12,158 84 12,498 : 2007: 43 12,936 5 11,070 82 12,293 : : ND : 2006: 21 11,257 42 10,511 78 11,977 : 2007: 29 10,741 23 11,367 81 12,105 : : OR : 2006: 21 14,496 95 13,239 : 2007: 25 14,051 3 13,042 91 12,409 : : WA : 2006: 13 16,358 27 13,801 151 14,409 : 2007: 6 16,271 18 14,292 154 15,087 : : WI : 2006: 13 15,372 36 14,717 73 12,973 : 2007: 11 14,950 34 13,823 77 12,875 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on row measurements and counts in potato fields selected for objective yield samples. 2/ Missing data represents insufficient number of samples. 3/ Field counts began in 2007. Potato Size and Grade Size and grade measurements came from potatoes harvested in the objective yield survey sample plots. Potatoes were harvested from six hills per sample randomly selected in each State using a scientifically designed sampling procedure. Potatoes were sent to laboratories for sizing and grading according to accepted U.S. fresh grading standards. The following tables contain percent measurements as they actually occurred. Fall Potatoes: Grading Categories by Type and State, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : No. 1 : No. 2 or : : and :2 Inch Minimum 2/: Processing Usable : Cull 4/ : Total State : :1 1/2 Inch Minimum 3/: : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : Round Red : Potatoes : : MN : 66.3 77.9 24.5 17.3 9.2 4.8 100.0 100.0 ND 5/ : 70.2 23.2 6.6 100.0 WI 5/ : 79.8 18.8 1.4 100.0 : Round White : Potatoes : : ME 6/ : 78.1 89.1 9.6 8.7 12.3 2.2 100.0 100.0 ND 5/ : 67.5 17.7 14.8 100.0 WA 5/ : 90.0 8.9 1.1 100.0 WI : 80.5 77.6 19.2 20.9 0.3 1.5 100.0 100.0 : Yellow : Potatoes 7/: : ME 6/ : 82.0 12.2 5.8 100.0 : Long : Potatoes: : (Russet : and : Shepody) : : ID 8/ : 77.0 71.9 21.8 27.1 1.2 1.0 100.0 100.0 ME 6/ : 62.9 68.8 20.3 18.6 16.8 12.6 100.0 100.0 MN : 70.7 73.1 19.9 19.4 9.4 7.5 100.0 100.0 ND : 65.8 70.9 23.1 21.1 11.1 8.0 100.0 100.0 OR : 75.3 73.4 23.7 24.9 1.0 1.7 100.0 100.0 WA : 80.2 76.0 18.0 22.1 1.8 1.9 100.0 100.0 WI : 80.8 83.0 18.3 16.0 0.9 1.0 100.0 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Gross yield basis. 2/ Potatoes which meet the requirements for US #1, as stated in United States Standards for Grades of Potatoes, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. 3/ Potatoes which meet the requirements for US #2, as stated in United States Standards for Grades of Potatoes, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. 4/ Potatoes not meeting the requirements for US #1 or US #2, as stated in United States Standards for Grades of Potatoes, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. 5/ For 2006, data were not published due to insufficient number of samples. 6/ Percent of net yield - adjusted for field loss. 7/ Lab counts began in 2007. 8/ Russets only. Round Potatoes: Size Categories by Type and State, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Inches : Year :-----------------------------------------------------------: Type : 1 1/2 : 1 7/8 : 2 : 2 1/4 : 2 1/2 : 3 1/2 : 4 Inch : State : - : - : - : - : - : - : and : and : 1 7/8 : 2 : 2 1/4 : 2 1/2 : 3 1/2 : 4 : over : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : 2006 : : Red : Potatoes : : MN : 5.2 3.4 12.8 19.9 57.1 1.2 0.4 100.0 ND 2/ : WI 2/ : : White : Potatoes : : ME 3/ : 2.1 10.8 18.5 63.7 4.2 0.7 100.0 WA 2/ : WI : 3.0 2.8 8.6 13.4 62.8 8.1 1.3 100.0 : Yellow : Potatoes 4/: : ME 3/ : : : 2007 : : Red : Potatoes : : MN : 5.7 4.3 14.3 22.3 52.7 0.5 0.2 100.0 ND : 7.4 6.0 13.9 18.5 50.1 4.1 100.0 WI : 7.9 5.8 16.0 20.4 44.6 5.3 100.0 : White : Potatoes : : ME 3/ : 0.9 1.3 10.5 20.8 60.7 4.9 0.9 100.0 ND : 6.6 7.6 16.1 23.9 41.7 2.6 1.5 100.0 WA : 3.2 2.5 8.5 11.7 61.5 10.9 1.7 100.0 WI : 3.1 3.2 9.9 14.5 64.8 4.2 0.3 100.0 : Yellow : Potatoes 4/: : ME 3/ : 1.5 2.5 8.4 12.5 65.5 9.6 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Gross yield basis. 2/ For 2006, data were not published due to insufficient number of samples. 3/ Percent of net yield - adjusted for field loss. 4/ Lab counts began in 2007. Long Potatoes (Russet & Shepody): Size Categories Maine, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Inches : Ounce : :---------------------------------------------------------------: : 1 1/2 : 1 7/8 : 2 in. : : : : : 14 : Crop : - : - : or : : : : : and : Year : 1 7/8 : 2 : 4-6 : 6-8 : 8-10 : 10-12 : 12-14 : Over : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : 2006 : 5.5 6.3 32.7 18.6 13.4 8.3 5.5 9.7 100.0 : 2007 : 6.3 5.4 33.6 20.7 14.6 7.9 5.6 5.9 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Percent of net yield - adjusted for field loss. Long Potatoes (Russet & Shepody): Size Categories by State, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Inches : Ounce : :--------------------------------------------------------------------: State:1 1/2:1 5/8:1 7/8:2 in.: : : : : : : : : 14 : and : - : - : - : or : : : : : : : : :and : Year:1 5/8:1 7/8: 2 : 4-6 : 6 : 7 : 8 : 9 : 10 : 11 : 12 : 13 :Over:Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : 2006 : : ID 2/: 1.6 6.8 3.6 26.1 9.6 9.0 7.0 6.4 5.3 4.7 3.5 3.1 13.3 100.0 MN : 1.5 6.3 5.4 25.8 10.8 9.5 8.5 6.6 5.3 4.6 3.1 3.3 9.3 100.0 ND : 1.0 6.6 4.8 28.0 10.8 9.1 8.4 6.3 5.2 4.7 3.8 2.3 9.0 100.0 OR : 1.7 5.3 3.1 21.9 8.4 9.8 7.7 6.7 7.1 4.9 3.9 3.6 15.9 100.0 WA : 0.9 4.3 2.5 23.6 9.0 9.6 8.7 7.3 6.2 5.2 4.5 2.7 15.5 100.0 WI : 0.8 5.2 4.5 28.1 11.2 9.1 8.3 7.6 5.3 4.4 4.3 2.7 8.5 100.0 : : 2007 : : ID 2/: 1.9 6.5 3.8 22.8 10.0 9.1 7.2 6.2 5.9 5.3 4.1 2.9 14.3 100.0 MN : 1.3 5.2 4.9 22.3 11.0 10.8 7.9 7.1 6.1 5.9 3.4 3.4 10.7 100.0 ND : 0.8 6.5 3.5 25.8 11.8 10.2 9.4 8.1 5.9 5.1 3.5 2.2 7.2 100.0 OR : 1.3 4.2 3.3 21.5 9.3 8.5 8.6 6.7 6.3 5.6 5.1 3.6 16.0 100.0 WA : 0.9 3.8 2.9 22.0 9.5 9.1 8.2 7.5 6.6 5.8 4.7 3.8 15.2 100.0 WI : 0.3 4.4 3.6 23.7 10.3 8.3 9.3 8.2 5.4 5.0 3.3 3.2 15.0 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Gross yield basis. 2/ Russets only. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States and United States, 2004-2006 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State:Marketing:Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 : 2006 : 9 15 11 15 10 11 12 9 5 3 CO : : : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 : 2006 : 6 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 7 ID : : : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 : 2006 : 3 11 12 8 7 8 8 10 10 9 7 7 ME : : : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 : 2006 : 8 7 8 9 9 8 13 13 12 7 6 MI : : : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 : 2006 : 1 9 12 13 12 12 12 7 11 7 4 MN : : : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 : 2006 : 5 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 11 NY : : : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 : 2006 : 4 15 14 12 14 16 7 10 4 4 ND : : : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 : 2006 : 3 27 11 6 6 11 5 7 10 9 4 1 OR : : : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 : 2006 : 12 10 13 5 7 7 7 10 10 8 7 4 PA 1/: : : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 : 2005 : : 2006 : WA : : : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 : 2006 : 15 11 25 7 6 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : 2006 : 1 6 15 10 10 10 9 9 11 10 6 3 US : : : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 : 2006 : 7 12 14 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Farm Marketing estimates discontinued in 2005. December Potato Stocks Up 4 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 270 million cwt of potatoes in storage December 1, 2007, up 4 percent from last year and 6 percent above December 1, 2005. Potatoes in storage account for 68 percent of the 2007 fall storage States' production, up 1 percentage point from last year. Klamath Basin stocks total 4.20 million cwt on December 1, 2007, up 5 percent from last year. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Disappearance of 130 million cwt from the start of harvest to December 1, is virtually unchanged from last year but up 8 percent from 2005. Shrink and loss, at 13.9 million cwt, is up 5 percent from the previous year and 9 percent above the same date in 2005. Processors have used 72.0 million cwt of 2007 crop potatoes so far this season, down 3 percent from a year ago but 10 percent above 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon total processing decreased 3 percent from a year ago, Maine's total processing was 3 percent below the same date in 2006, and Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing was down 6 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage accounts for 12.7 million cwt of the total processing, down 13 percent from last year but 7 percent above the same date in 2005. Western States held 193 million cwt of potatoes in storage on December 1, up 9 percent from last year and 8 percent above 2005. Idaho's potato stocks are up 4 percent from last year, Washington's potato sheds held 22 percent more than last year, and Oregon's stocks increased 13 percent from last season. Montana's potato sheds held 9 percent more stocks than last year and California's potato stocks increased 11 percent from last season. Colorado's potato stocks declined 12 percent from last year. Central States accounted for 61.7 million cwt of potato stocks on December 1, down 4 percent from last year but 3 percent above the same date in 2005. Wisconsin's potato stocks declined 5 percent from last year, North Dakotas's sheds held 16 percent less, and potato stocks in Nebraska are 10 percent below last season. Minnesota's potato stocks are up 2 percent from last year and Michigan's potato sheds held 17 percent more than on the same date in 2006. Eastern States stored 15.5 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, down 11 percent from last year but up 1 percent from December 1, 2005. Maine's potato sheds held 12 percent less than last year, while New York's potato stocks declined 7 percent from a year ago. Fall Potato Production Up Less than 1 Percent from November Production of fall potatoes for 2007 is forecast at 409 million cwt, up less than 1 percent from last month and 3 percent above last year. Area harvested, at 997,600 acres, is virtually unchanged from November but up 1 percent from last year. The average yield is forecast at 410 cwt per acre, up 1 cwt from last month and 4 cwt above the record high set last year. Western States production is forecast at 288 million cwt, up 6 percent from last year. Area harvested, at 642,000 acres, increased 4 percent from last year, and the average yield of 449 cwt per acre is up 6 cwt from 2006. Idaho's yield is forecast at 377 cwt per acre. If realized this would be the second highest yield on record, 9 cwt below the record yield set in 2006. Hot weather during the summer reduced the quality of the crop. Incidences of the Potato Virus Y were more frequent than normal which adversely affected yields. In Washington, harvest progressed normally this year. The quality of the crop is acceptable but not as good as in previous years. In Colorado, a severe wind storm followed by a late freeze in mid-June damaged plants that were already emerged. The earlier planted crop was slow to recover from the damage, leading to increased yield variability. Oregon's crop progressed at a normal pace with no major problems reported. In California, favorable weather conditions resulted in excellent crop quality and yields. Central States production is forecast at 96.0 million cwt, down 3 percent from last year. Harvested area, at 267,000 acres, is down 4 percent, while the average yield, at 359 cwt per acre, is up 2 cwt from a year ago. Overall, the Wisconsin crop progressed ahead of normal. Growers reported a good quality crop with harvest completed on time or early. In North Dakota, crop condition was rated fair to good throughout the growing season. Michigan and Minnesota's yields are forecast at 350 and 440 cwt per acre, respectively. If realized, these would be record high yields. Eastern States production is forecast at 24.9 million cwt, down 9 percent from last year. Area for harvest totaled 88,600 acres, 3 percent below last year, while the average yield, at 281 cwt per acre, is down 18 cwt from last season. In Maine, excellent growing and harvesting conditions resulted in a high yielding, high quality crop. In Massachusetts and Rhode Island, above average temperatures and below average precipitation forced growers in many locations to irrigate. New York planted acreage is at the lowest level since estimates began in 1929. Reliability of December 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20- year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 2.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 270 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.4 percent or approximately 6.48 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.1 percent or approximately 11.1 million cwt. The 20-year (1987-2006) record of differences between the December 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.20 million cwt, ranging from 7.77 million cwt above the final to 14.5 million cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the December 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 16 years and above 4 years. Reliability of December 1 Fall Potato Estimates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root Mean : 20-Year Record of Difference : Square Error : Between December 1 and Final Estimate :------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% Confidence : : Number Estimate : : Level : Quantity : of Years :Percent:----------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Below : Above : :Percent:Quantity : Avg : Small : Large : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- Million Cwt --------- : Stocks : 2.4 4.1 11.07 4.20 0.11 14.50 16 4 Production : 1.5 2.7 11.05 4.38 0.05 13.46 15 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final December 1 Stocks, United States, 1997-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 274,250 98.4 278,830 1998 : 281,020 100.0 280,910 1999 : 274,870 99.9 275,100 2000 : 309,520 99.7 310,300 2001 : 266,520 103.0 258,750 2002 : 265,190 100.3 264,485 2003 : 267,160 99.7 267,900 2004 : 271,600 100.2 271,100 2005 : 253,400 99.8 253,800 2006 : 252,300 97.3 259,300 2007 : 270,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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