Pot 1-2 (3-07) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 15, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 153 million cwt of potatoes in storage March 1, 2007, down 1 percent from last year and 8 percent below March 1, 2005, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 40 percent of the 2006 fall storage States' production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Klamath Basin stocks were added to the potato stocks program starting with December 2006 and total 2.20 million cwt on March 1, 2007. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Potato disappearance, at 229 million cwt, is up 5 percent from last year. Season to date shrink and loss, at 20.1 million cwt, is up 9 percent from last year. Processors in the 9 major States have used 125 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 9 percent from a year ago and 5 percent above 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 25.6 million cwt of the total processing, up 12 percent from last year but 2 percent below the same date in 2005. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1997-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 2/ : 374,298 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 2/ : 382,283 252,200 220,000 187,800 153,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. 2/ 13 major States. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2004-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2004 : 24,360 30,840 36,820 44,610 51,000 58,090 65,800 84,600 2005 : 22,840 29,300 35,970 43,300 50,820 57,830 65,030 77,360 2006 : 26,130 32,810 40,100 47,730 : ME 2/ : 2004 : 1,540 1,970 2,600 3,135 3,700 4,340 4,910 6,590 2005 : 1,365 1,880 2,485 3,090 3,800 4,450 5,130 6,825 2006 : 1,755 2,360 2,910 3,465 : WA & OR-Oth : 2004 : 32,305 38,130 43,570 50,730 57,140 63,855 71,355 78,680 2005 : 30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 69,360 78,550 2006 : 30,980 37,060 42,190 49,930 : Other Sts 3/ : 2004 : 12,490 15,000 17,965 20,910 24,150 27,480 30,945 41,175 2005 : 11,055 14,070 17,005 19,895 22,520 25,270 27,740 35,535 2006 : 13,465 16,905 20,450 23,835 : Total : 2004 : 70,695 85,940 100,955 119,385 135,990 153,765 173,010 211,045 2005 : 65,570 81,145 96,005 114,575 132,460 149,405 167,260 198,270 2006 : 72,330 89,135 105,650 124,960 : Dehydrated 4/: 2004 : 14,525 18,540 21,875 25,970 30,020 33,685 38,505 47,810 2005 : 11,920 15,655 19,225 22,765 26,605 30,065 34,130 41,625 2006 : 12,860 17,130 21,270 25,550 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on March 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2005 : Crop of 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : of : : 2006 : Prod : : 2007 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,306 900 27 3,783 1,200 32 CO : 22,910 11,200 49 22,686 11,300 50 ID : 118,288 56,000 47 121,820 53,500 44 ME : 15,455 8,400 54 18,270 10,000 55 MI : 13,910 3,100 22 14,190 3,500 25 MN : 17,630 7,100 40 20,400 7,900 39 MT : 3,445 3,200 93 3,518 3,000 85 NE : 8,245 3,300 40 8,633 3,300 38 NY : 5,226 1,200 23 5,700 800 14 ND : 20,500 7,200 35 25,480 9,500 37 OR : 22,023 11,500 52 18,533 9,700 52 WA : 95,480 32,500 34 89,900 28,500 32 WI : 27,880 9,900 36 29,370 11,000 37 : 13 Sts : 374,298 155,500 42 382,283 153,200 40 : Klamath Basin 2/: 2,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2006 totaled 25.6 million cwt. 2/ Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2001-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-----------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Production : : Production : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2001 : 393,631 358,812 91.2 34,819 8.8 28,625 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,768 2005 : 382,743 351,083 91.7 31,660 8.3 25,628 2006 : 391,978 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2003-2006 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: Mar 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2003 : 3,528 1,300 167 1 343 3,184 : 2004 : 3,648 1,500 213 1 292 3,355 : 2005 : 3,306 900 226 331 2,975 : 2006 : 3,783 1,200 CO : : : 2003 : 23,652 10,700 1,625 1,410 2,507 19,735 : 2004 : 23,791 11,900 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 : 2005 : 22,910 11,200 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 : 2006 : 22,686 11,300 ID : : : 2003 : 123,180 58,000 7,810 1,463 8,900 112,817 : 2004 : 131,970 64,000 7,150 1,250 10,902 119,818 : 2005 : 118,288 56,000 7,260 1,230 7,800 109,258 : 2006 : 121,820 53,500 ME : : : 2003 : 17,030 8,900 1,245 215 2,430 14,385 : 2004 : 19,065 9,400 1,231 190 4,900 13,975 : 2005 : 15,455 8,400 1,274 242 1,183 14,030 : 2006 : 18,270 10,000 MI : : : 2003 : 15,015 5,100 1,060 265 1,680 13,070 : 2004 : 13,650 3,600 860 194 1,656 11,800 : 2005 : 13,910 3,100 1,056 182 1,728 12,000 : 2006 : 14,190 3,500 MN : : : 2003 : 22,330 9,600 1,060 130 1,800 20,400 : 2004 : 18,920 8,800 837 100 1,750 17,070 : 2005 : 17,630 7,100 1,061 140 1,600 15,890 : 2006 : 20,400 7,900 MT : : : 2003 : 3,339 2,800 268 160 270 2,909 : 2004 : 3,551 2,400 257 156 276 3,119 : 2005 : 3,445 3,200 242 156 210 3,079 : 2006 : 3,518 3,000 NE : : : 2003 : 9,744 616 194 840 8,710 : 2004 : 9,288 519 212 906 8,170 : 2005 : 8,245 3,300 515 231 834 7,180 : 2006 : 8,633 3,300 NY : : : 2003 : 6,510 700 440 100 520 5,890 : 2004 : 5,184 700 451 100 513 4,571 : 2005 : 5,226 1,200 453 100 491 4,635 : 2006 : 5,700 800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and All Fall Season States, 2003-2006 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production:Mar 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2003 : 27,440 13,000 1,995 390 3,700 23,350 : 2004 : 26,765 13,100 1,794 240 2,825 23,700 : 2005 : 20,500 7,200 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 : 2006 : 25,480 9,500 OH 2/ : : : 2003 : 1,097 76 6 40 1,051 : 2004 : 1,080 73 6 33 1,041 : 2005 : : 2006 : OR : : : 2003 : 20,991 11,000 883 275 1,290 19,426 : 2004 : 19,775 9,000 955 241 1,264 18,270 : 2005 : 22,023 11,500 837 255 1,392 20,376 : 2006 : 18,533 9,700 PA 2/ : : : 2003 : 3,375 700 228 42 287 3,046 : 2004 : 2,640 700 253 39 216 2,385 : 2005 : : 2006 : WA : : : 2003 : 93,150 29,500 4,000 280 5,600 87,270 : 2004 : 93,810 29,000 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 : 2005 : 95,480 32,500 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 : 2006 : 89,900 28,500 WI : : : 2003 : 32,800 11,200 1,562 300 2,750 29,750 : 2004 : 30,450 10,700 1,360 260 1,985 28,205 : 2005 : 27,880 9,900 1,474 300 1,380 26,200 : 2006 : 29,370 11,000 Other Sts : : : 2003 : 3,780 : 2004 : 3,220 : 2005 : : 2006 : 15 Sts 3/ : : : 2003 : 403,181 166,280 23,035 5,231 32,957 364,993 : 2004 : 403,587 168,020 21,316 4,529 35,404 363,654 : 2005 : 374,298 155,500 21,696 4,516 26,409 343,373 : 2006 : 382,283 153,200 Fall Sts : : : 2003 : 410,588 23,387 5,254 33,579 371,755 : 2004 : 410,253 21,593 4,549 35,923 369,781 : 2005 : 382,743 22,338 4,545 27,115 351,083 : 2006 : 391,978 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts" to avoid disclosure of individual operations. 2/ Stock estimates discontinued in crop year 2005. 3/ 13 storage States starting in crop year 2005. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2003-2005 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2003 : 13 12 15 14 9 8 10 7 12 : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 CO : : : 2003 : 6 8 9 10 11 9 12 14 8 7 6 : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 ID : : : 2003 : 4 8 10 11 8 7 8 10 11 11 6 6 : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 ME : : : 2003 : 1 5 11 8 9 10 10 11 15 10 6 4 : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 MI : : : 2003 : 1 7 8 11 11 11 10 8 13 12 8 : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 MN : : : 2003 : 9 10 10 9 6 5 6 9 10 9 9 8 : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 NY : : : 2003 : 1 8 29 20 17 8 7 6 4 : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 ND : : : 2003 : 23 10 6 7 6 9 7 11 10 9 2 : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 OR : : : 2003 : 10 9 19 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 5 3 : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 PA 1/ : : : 2003 : 15 18 14 11 10 10 9 6 5 2 : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 : 2005 : WA : : : 2003 : 16 12 22 7 6 5 7 6 6 7 5 1 : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 WI : : : 2003 : 1 6 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 9 7 2 : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : : US : : : 2003 : 7 10 14 10 8 7 8 9 10 9 5 3 : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Farm marketing estimates discontinued in 2005. March Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 153 million cwt of potatoes in storage March 1, 2007, down 1 percent from last year and 8 percent below March 1, 2005, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 40 percent of the 2006 fall storage States' production, down 2 percentage points from last year. Klamath Basin stocks were added to the potato stocks program starting with December 2006 and total 2.20 million cwt on March 1, 2007. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Disappearance of 229 million cwt from the start of harvest to March 1, is up 5 percent from last year. Shrink and loss, at 20.1 million cwt, is up 9 percent from the pervious year. Processors have used 125 million cwt of 2006 crop potatoes so far this season, up 9 percent from a year ago and 5 percent above 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon total processing increased 10 percent from a year ago, Maine's total processing was 12 percent above the same date in 2006, and Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing was up 3 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage accounts for 25.6 million cwt of the total processing, up 12 percent from last year but 2 percent below the same date in 2005. Western States held 107 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, down 7 percent from last year. Idaho's potato stocks are down 4 percent from last year, Washington's potato sheds held 12 percent less than last year, Oregon's stocks declined 16 percent from last season, and potato stocks in Montana are down 6 percent from 2006. Colorado potato sheds held 1 percent more stocks than last year and California's potato stocks increased 33 percent from last season. Central States accounted for 35.2 million cwt of potato stocks on March 1, up 15 percent from last year. Wisconsin's potato stocks increased 11 percent from last year, North Dakota's sheds held 32 percent more, Minnesota stocks are up 11 percent, and potato stocks in Michigan are 13 percent above last season. Nebraska's potato stocks are unchanged from the same date in 2006. Eastern States stored 10.8 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, up 13 percent from last year. Maine's potato sheds held 19 percent more than last year, while New York's potato stocks declined 33 percent from a year ago. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2003-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 :Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2003 : 15.0 17.4 20.5 22.6 25.4 27.5 29.9 33.0 2004 : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 1/ : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 26.4 2006 1/ : 13.5 16.1 18.2 20.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 13 fall storage States. Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 153 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.4 percent or approximately 5.2 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.0 percent or approximately 9.2 million cwt. The 20-year (1986-2005) record of differences between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 3.8 million cwt, ranging from 9.3 million cwt above the final to 13.1 million cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 13 years and above 7 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March 1 Stocks, United States, 1996-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1996 : 184,565 97.5 189,210 1997 : 170,325 96.8 175,870 1998 : 174,100 100.3 173,650 1999 : 170,050 100.3 169,620 2000 : 198,320 100.3 197,670 2001 : 167,870 105.9 158,590 2002 : 163,900 99.2 165,210 2003 : 166,690 100.2 166,280 2004 : 168,420 100.2 168,020 2005 : 153,700 98.8 155,500 2006 : 153,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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