Pot 1-2 (1-00) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 14, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. January Potato Stocks Off 3 Percent January 1, 2000 potato stocks total 238 million cwt in the 15 major States, down 3 percent from the last two years. January stocks accounted for 57 percent of fall production compared with 58 percent last year. Seasonal disappearance hit a record high 182 million cwt in the 15 States, up 3 percent from last year and up slightly from the previous record high in 1996. Fryers and dehydrators used 90.3 million cwt so far this season, up fractionally from last year. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1990-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 274,370 238,160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1996-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 2/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal: 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 76,410 92,860 1999 : 27,970 34,490 : ME 3/ : 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,430 1,935 2,530 2,985 3,595 4,180 4,705 5,945 1999 : 1,375 1,670 : WA & OR-Oth: 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,630 38,890 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 74,190 83,730 1999 : 33,440 39,620 : Oth Sts 4/ : 1996 : 13,720 17,000 20,645 24,085 27,650 30,830 43,100 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,615 14,550 18,150 20,900 24,710 27,855 31,635 37,662 1999 : 11,785 14,495 : Total : 1996 : 78,240 93,985 110,585 130,745 149,610 168,290 227,535 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 74,185 90,075 109,000 128,385 149,275 167,765 186,940 220,197 1999 : 74,570 90,275 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Data not available prior to 1998. 3/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 4/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on January 1, 1999-00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1998 : Crop of 1999 :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Jan % : Prod : Jan 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : of : : 1999 : Prod : : 1999 : 2000 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent -------- 1,000 Cwt -------- Percent : CA : 3,708 2,400 65 4,005 3,200 2,500 62 CO : 25,360 16,500 65 25,762 19,500 17,300 67 ID : 138,000 89,000 64 133,330 96,000 86,000 65 ME : 18,060 12,500 69 17,813 14,500 13,000 73 MI : 14,648 7,500 51 14,963 8,800 7,100 47 MN : 21,170 12,000 57 18,020 10,000 8,500 47 MT : 3,180 2,980 94 3,325 3,220 3,120 94 NE : 8,175 3,900 48 8,904 5,300 4,320 49 NY : 7,290 2,300 32 6,758 3,700 2,600 38 ND : 28,670 17,500 61 26,400 16,500 13,000 49 OH : 1,200 150 13 987 250 120 12 OR : 26,229 17,500 67 28,020 22,800 20,500 73 PA : 3,360 1,500 45 3,080 1,600 1,200 39 WA : 93,225 43,500 47 95,200 48,000 41,000 43 WI : 30,895 17,000 55 34,000 21,000 17,900 53 : 15 States : 423,170 246,230 58 420,567 274,370 238,160 57 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, January 1, 1999-00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan : Dec :Jan : Jan : Dec :Jan : Jan : Dec :Jan : Jan : Dec :Jan :1999 :1999 :2000:1999 :1999 :2000:1999 :1999 :2000:1999 :1999 :2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 4 4 4 6 2 2 90 94 94 ID : 4 5 5 96 95 95 ME : 4 3 3 46 50 48 9 10 10 41 37 39 MI : 1 2 2 84 87 89 15 11 9 MN : 12 7 4 5 5 5 3 1 80 87 91 NY : 5 5 5 93 93 93 2 2 2 ND : 12 15 11 22 22 21 5 13 6 61 50 62 OR : 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 2 2 93 95 95 PA : 2 3 3 98 97 97 WA : 1 1 1 1 4 6 4 95 92 95 WI : 2 3 2 20 30 25 78 67 73 : 11 St Avg : 2 2 2 10 12 11 4 5 4 84 81 83 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1996-99 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1996: 4,600 3,000 200 23 472 4,105 : 1997: 4,200 2,300 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 2,400 171 29 720 2,959 : 1999: 4,005 2,500 CO : : : 1996: 29,175 20,700 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 : 1997: 24,993 17,000 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 16,500 1,930 1,615 2,615 21,130 : 1999: 25,762 17,300 ID : : : 1996: 142,800 92,000 8,600 1,500 10,100 131,200 : 1997: 140,314 91,500 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 138,000 89,000 8,400 1,280 9,756 126,964 : 1999: 133,330 86,000 ME : : : 1996: 21,175 15,300 1,584 395 1,800 18,980 : 1997: 19,080 14,100 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 12,500 1,496 360 1,740 15,960 : 1999: 17,813 13,000 MI : : : 1996: 13,800 6,600 768 300 1,300 12,200 : 1997: 14,250 7,000 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,648 7,500 888 200 1,348 13,100 : 1999: 14,963 7,100 MN : : : 1996: 24,600 14,900 1,348 445 4,158 19,997 : 1997: 20,440 12,000 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 12,000 1,400 254 1,440 19,476 : 1999: 18,020 8,500 MT : : : 1996: 3,213 2,950 239 137 221 2,855 : 1997: 3,328 3,080 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 2,980 253 145 265 2,770 : 1999: 3,325 3,120 NE : : : 1996: 4,402 2,800 451 169 439 3,794 : 1997: 7,761 4,300 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 3,900 469 166 881 7,128 : 1999: 8,904 4,320 NY : : : 1996: 7,420 2,400 583 127 341 6,952 : 1997: 7,150 2,500 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 2,300 572 110 330 6,850 : 1999: 6,758 2,600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1996-99 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1996: 28,820 18,000 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 : 1997: 22,000 13,800 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 17,500 2,250 395 2,840 25,435 : 1999: 26,400 13,000 OH : : : 1996: 1,275 170 109 5 35 1,235 : 1997: 1,170 170 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 150 100 8 37 1,155 : 1999: 987 120 OR : : : 1996: 30,124 21,500 1,345 305 2,560 27,259 : 1997: 27,319 19,000 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 17,500 1,382 195 2,206 23,828 : 1999: 28,020 20,500 PA : : : 1996: 4,160 1,800 266 81 320 3,759 : 1997: 3,173 1,500 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 1,500 261 50 252 3,058 : 1999: 3,080 1,200 WA : : : 1996: 94,990 42,000 3,648 300 6,800 87,890 : 1997: 88,160 41,500 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 43,500 4,080 300 6,500 86,425 : 1999: 95,200 41,000 WI : : : 1996: 33,150 17,200 1,710 320 1,425 31,405 : 1997: 30,175 16,800 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 17,000 1,720 265 2,360 28,270 : 1999: 34,000 17,900 15 Sts : : : 1996: 443,704 261,320 24,964 5,952 39,216 398,536 : 1997: 413,513 246,550 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 423,170 246,230 25,372 5,372 33,290 384,508 : 1999: 420,567 238,160 23 Fall: : : 1996: 454,388 25,608 6,054 40,087 408,247 : 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 432,737 25,929 5,584 34,231 392,922 : 1999: 429,847 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1996-98 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1996 : : 1997 : : 1998 : 13 12 13 11 10 12 10 8 7 4 CO : : : 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 : 1998 : 5 8 9 12 10 10 12 11 10 9 4 ID : : : 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 : 1998 : 6 11 20 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 6 6 ME : : : 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 : 1998 : 1 7 9 9 9 10 11 14 12 9 9 MI : : : 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 : 1998 : 3 8 9 9 9 12 14 9 12 10 5 MN : : : 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 : 1998 : 11 16 14 10 5 7 6 8 9 6 8 NY : : : 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 : 1998 : 7 16 16 16 15 11 8 6 4 1 ND : : : 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 : 1998 : 3 13 14 10 10 8 7 7 9 10 6 3 OR : : : 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 1 : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 : 1998 : 2 12 15 27 8 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 2 PA : : : 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 : 1998 : 14 12 11 12 15 11 9 7 6 2 1 WA : : : 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 : 1998 : 16 13 25 7 3 5 6 7 5 6 6 1 WI : : : 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 : 1998 : 1 6 18 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1996-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1996 : 24.2 26.1 28.2 30.0 32.3 34.8 39.2 1997 : 15.3 17.3 19.3 21.3 23.5 25.6 30.0 1998 : 19.8 21.7 23.6 25.3 27.3 29.2 30.9 33.1 1999 : 17.2 21.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 3 Percent The 15 major potato States held 238 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 2000, down 3 percent from the last two years. Storage accounted for 57 percent of 1999 fall production, one percentage point below last year. Stocks by type were 2 percent red, 11 percent round white, 4 percent long white (Shepody) and 83 percent russet; with more russets, and fewer whites than a year ago. Disappearance in the 15 States from the start of harvest to January 1, 2000 was a record high 182 million cwt, up 3 percent from the same period last year and slightly above the previous record high in 1996. December's disappearance set a new record 36.2 million cwt, 4 percent more than a year ago. Shrink and loss jumped to 21.1 million cwt this season, down 3 percent from 1998, but 22 percent above two years ago. December losses, at 3.89 million cwt, reflect heavy clean-up in the north-central States. Processors used 90.3 million cwt of 1999 crop potatoes so far this season, up fractionally from a year ago and 8 percent above two years ago. December usage was 15.7 million cwt, down 1 percent from last year's record high, but 3 percent above 1997. Eastern States stored 16.8 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, up 3 percent from last year but 7 percent below 1998. Maine's stocks were up 4 percent, New York's storage gained 13 percent, but Pennsylvania's stocks declined 20 percent. Central States accounted for 50.9 million cwt of potato stocks this January, down 12 percent from last year and 6 percent lower than two years ago. Minnesota's stocks dropped 29 percent and North Dakota fell 26 percent from last year. Michigan was off 5 percent and Ohio slipped 20 percent. Wisconsin gained 5 percent and Nebraska stored 11 percent more potatoes than last year. Western States held 170 million cwt of potatoes in storage on January 1, 2000, down 1 percent from a year ago and 2 percent below two years ago. Colorado and Montana were up 5 percent each and Oregon stored 17 percent more potatoes this year than last. Idaho's stocks were off 3 percent and Washington's were down 6 percent. Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.8 percent. This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 238 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.8 percent or approximately 6.7 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.8 percent or approximately 11.4 million cwt. The 10-year (1990-99) record of the differences between the January 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.5 million cwt. During the 10-year period, January 1 stocks estimates have been below the final estimate each year. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final January 1 Stocks, United States, 1989-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1989 : 173,400 99.9 173,550 1990 : 186,160 95.7 194,460 1991 : 210,935 100.0 211,005 1992 : 201,690 93.4 215,990 1993 : 209,270 96.3 217,300 1994 : 229,350 96.1 238,560 1995 : 218,970 98.0 223,550 1996 : 256,520 98.2 261,320 1997 : 240,850 97.7 246,550 1998 : 246,220 100.0 246,230 1999 : 238,160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: Stocks are the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.7 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage and loss and home use accounted for the remaining 9.3 percent. Most seed for use the following crop year is on hand and remains part of stocks until planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1994-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1994 : 422,345 380,818 90.2 41,527 9.8 29,428 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.6 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,516 1999 : 429,847 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 14, 2000. 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