HDR1012000110080116961500Potato Stocks HDR2012000110080116961500Potato Stocks Nar.& Tables Released January 16, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@AG.GOV. Potato Stocks Down 8 Percent January 1, 1996 potato stocks totaled 219 million cwt in the 15 storage States, down 8 percent from a year earlier but 1 percent above two years ago. Disappearance so far this season was up 1 percent, helped by a 6 percent gain in processing. Shrink and loss of 20.1 million cwt was 5 percent below last year a slightly below two years ago. Pot 1-2 (01-96) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1986-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1986 : 307,928 209,435 180,915 154,545 128,720 95,090 59,790 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 409,009 271,890 237,560 201,870 168,770 128,825 87,500 1995 : 391,816 252,080 218,970 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1993-95 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1993 : 24,090 30,540 37,150 44,720 53,070 61,440 85,780 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 90,300 1995 : 27,310 35,040 : ME 2/ : 1993 : 1,350 1,720 2,210 2,505 2,890 3,275 4,555 1994 : 1,505 1,840 2,265 2,540 2,985 3,330 4,770 1995 : 1,335 1,685 : WA & OR-Other : 1993 : 28,260 33,350 39,010 45,020 51,290 57,180 70,690 1994 : 28,670 33,480 39,120 46,070 52,940 59,540 76,780 1995 : 30,000 35,170 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1993 : 7,605 9,515 11,605 13,720 16,080 18,705 25,690 1994 : 9,725 13,110 15,630 18,260 21,115 24,060 32,260 1995 : 12,360 15,330 : Total : 1993 : 61,305 75,125 89,975 105,965 123,330 140,600 186,715 1994 : 66,520 82,660 99,345 116,760 135,030 153,610 204,110 1995 : 71,005 87,225 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on January 1, 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1994 : Crop of 1995 :---------------------------------------------------------------- : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks :Jan % State : Prod : Jan 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : of : : 1995 : Prod : : 1995 1/ : 1996 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt --- Pct -------- 1,000 Cwt -------- Pct : CA : 5,600 3,700 66 5,330 3,800 3,500 66 CO : 25,795 16,300 63 23,808 18,200 16,100 68 ID : 138,801 89,500 64 131,274 94,000 83,500 64 ME : 18,375 11,400 62 17,160 13,800 12,400 72 MI : 12,180 6,100 50 16,500 9,000 7,700 47 MN : 17,755 10,800 61 20,790 13,500 11,700 56 MT : 3,200 3,000 94 2,940 2,800 2,700 92 NE : 3,996 2,100 53 3,680 2,530 2,220 60 NY : 7,805 3,000 38 7,695 4,100 3,200 42 ND : 28,200 16,200 57 25,410 17,000 14,000 55 OH : 1,348 260 19 1,404 350 150 11 OR : 27,514 17,600 59 23,760 16,100 14,100 59 PA : 3,780 1,600 7 4,080 2,400 1,900 47 WA : 88,920 43,000 20 80,850 39,000 33,000 41 WI : 25,740 13,000 6 27,135 15,500 12,800 47 : US : 409,009 237,560 58 391,816 252,080 218,970 56 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, January 1, 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Reds : Whites : Russets State :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Jan : Dec : Jan : Jan : Dec : Jan : Jan : Dec : Jan : 1995 :1995 1/: 1996 : 1995 :1995 1/: 1996 : 1995 :1995 1/: 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 4 6 6 96 94 94 ID : 5 10 10 95 90 90 ME : 1 3 3 82 69 66 17 28 31 MI : 2 75 78 75 25 20 25 MN : 14 14 12 17 16 20 69 70 68 NY : 5 5 5 93 93 93 2 2 2 ND : 13 16 16 43 36 32 44 48 52 OR : 1 1 1 3 3 99 96 96 PA : 3 3 3 97 97 97 WA : 1 2 1 3 5 3 96 93 96 WI : 3 3 2 20 27 27 77 70 71 : US : 2 3 3 16 19 18 82 78 79 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Potato Stocks Down 8 Percent The 15 major potato States held 219 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1996, down 8 percent from a year earlier but 1 percent above 1994. Storage accounted 56 percent of 1995 fall production down 2 points from last year. Stocks by type were 3 percent red, 18 percent white, and 79 percent russet. Disappearance from the start of harvest to January 1 was a record 173 million cw of potatoes, up 1 percent from the same period in 1995. Disappearance in Decemb 1995 was 33.1 million cwt, down 4 percent from last year but 4 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss to date was estimated at 20.1 million cwt, down 5 percent from last year. Processing swelled 6 percent to 87.2 million cwt so far this season and was 16 percent above two years ago. In December, processors claimed 16.2 cwt of potatoes, fractionally above a year ago and 17 percent above two years ago. Eastern States stored 17.5 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1996, up 9 perc from a year ago and 6 percent above 1994. Pennsylvania's stocks were up 19 percent, Maine's holdings were up 9 percent, while New York stocks rose 7 percent. Central States accounted for 48.6 million cwt of potato stocks this January, slightly above 1995 and 21 percent above 1994. Minnesota stocks gained 8 perce including potatoes from former summer areas that were not counted last year. Michigan stocks jumped 26 percent, also including some from former summer areas. North Dakota was off 14 percent and Wisconsin slipped 2 percent. Nebraska stock increased 6 percent as Ohio's storage shrank 42 percent. Western States held 153 million cwt of potatoes in storage on January 1, 1996, o 12 percent from a year previous and 5 percent below two years ago. Each of the Western storage States are below a year ago. Idaho is down 7 percent, Oregon f 20 percent and Washington dropped 23 percent. Colorado stocks slipped 1 percent below last January. These four States accounted for two-thirds of U.S. Potato stocks and are down 12 percent from last year. California stored 5 percent fewe potatoes than a year earlier and Montana held 10 percent less. Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.9 percent. This means the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 219 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.9 percent or approximately 6.4 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.1 percent or approximately 11.2 million cwt. The 10-year (1986-95) record of the differences between the January 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.2 million cwt, ranging ranging from o.1 million to 14.3 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate each year. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final January Stocks, United States, 1985-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1985 : 201,300 99.3 202,800 1986 : 176,600 97.6 180,915 1987 : 195,880 99.6 196,760 1988 : 171,560 96.5 177,750 1989 : 173,400 99.9 173,550 1990 : 186,160 95.7 194,460 1991 : 210,935 100.0 211,005 1992 : 201,690 93.4 215,990 1993 : 209,270 96.1 217,800 1994 : 229,350 96.5 237,560 1995 : 218,970 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 14, 1996. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in i programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program informat (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. SUBSCRIBE TODAY!! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data produc INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are now available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. Fo connect to the Internet and select: 1. Worldwide Web: http://www.usda.gov/nass/ OR 2. For Gopher/Telenet/FTP access: HOST=usda.mannlib.cornell.edu OR 3. 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