Pot 1-2 (1-07) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 17, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Virtually Unchanged from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 220 million cwt of potatoes in storage January 1, 2007, virtually unchanged from last year but 7 percent below January 1, 2005, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 58 percent of the 2006 fall storage States' production, down 1 percentage point from last year. Klamath Basin stocks were added to the potato stocks program starting with December 2006 and total 3.40 million cwt on January 1, 2007. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Potato disappearance, at 162 million cwt, is up 6 percent from last year. Season to date shrink and loss, at 16.1 million cwt, is up 7 percent from last year. Processors in the 9 major States have used 88.5 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 9 percent from a year ago and 3 percent above 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 16.5 million cwt of the total processing, up 5 percent from last year but 11 percent below the same date in 2005. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1997-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 : 403,181 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 : 403,587 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 2/ : 374,298 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 2/3/: 382,283 252,200 220,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. 2/ 13 major States. 3/ December 1, 2006, stocks revised. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2004-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2004 : 24,360 30,840 36,820 44,610 51,000 58,090 65,800 84,600 2005 : 22,840 29,300 35,970 43,300 50,820 57,830 65,030 77,360 2006 : 26,130 32,810 : ME 2/ : 2004 : 1,540 1,970 2,600 3,135 3,700 4,340 4,910 6,590 2005 : 1,365 1,880 2,485 3,090 3,800 4,450 5,130 6,825 2006 : 1,755 2,360 : WA & OR-Oth : 2004 : 32,305 38,130 43,570 50,730 57,140 63,855 71,355 78,680 2005 : 30,310 35,895 40,545 48,290 55,320 61,855 69,360 78,550 2006 : 30,980 37,060 : Other Sts 3/ : 2004 : 12,490 15,000 17,965 20,910 24,150 27,480 30,945 41,175 2005 : 11,055 14,070 17,005 19,895 22,520 25,270 27,740 35,535 2006 : 13,465 16,265 : Total : 2004 : 70,695 85,940 100,955 119,385 135,990 153,765 173,010 211,045 2005 : 65,570 81,145 96,005 114,575 132,460 149,405 167,260 198,270 2006 : 72,330 88,495 : Dehydrated 5/: 2004 : 14,525 18,540 21,875 25,970 30,020 33,685 38,505 47,810 2005 : 11,920 15,655 19,225 22,765 26,605 30,065 34,130 41,625 2006 : 12,860 16,490 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. 4/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on January 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2005 : Crop of 2006 :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Jan % : Prod : Jan 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : of : : 2006 : Prod : : 2006 : 2007 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt -- Percent ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- Percent : CA : 3,306 1,300 39 3,783 1,800 1,500 40 CO : 22,910 15,000 65 22,686 17,200 15,200 67 ID : 118,288 75,500 64 121,820 84,000 74,500 61 ME 2/ : 15,455 11,200 72 18,270 14,600 13,000 71 MI : 13,910 6,200 45 14,190 8,200 6,600 47 MN : 17,630 11,100 63 20,400 12,000 10,700 52 MT : 3,445 3,300 96 3,518 3,400 3,400 97 NE : 8,245 4,700 57 8,633 5,800 4,800 56 NY : 5,226 2,200 42 5,700 2,800 1,900 33 ND : 20,500 11,500 56 25,480 17,300 15,000 59 OR : 22,023 16,500 75 18,533 16,000 13,900 75 WA : 95,480 46,500 49 89,900 49,000 42,500 47 WI : 27,880 15,500 56 29,370 20,100 17,000 58 : 13 Sts 2/ : 374,298 220,500 59 382,283 252,200 220,000 58 : Klamath Basin 3/ : 4,000 3,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant the following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2006 totaled 25.6 million cwt. 2/ December 1, 2006, stocks revised. 3/ Estimates began in Decmeber 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co. OR. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 10 Major States, January 1, 2006-2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :------------------------------------------------------------ : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :------------------------------------------------------------ : Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :Jan :Dec :Jan :2006 :2006:2007:2006:2006:2007:2006:2006:2007:2006:2006:2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 4 3 3 11 13 13 85 84 84 ID : 2 2 2 2 2 2 96 96 96 ME 1/ : 1 2 2 41 38 39 2 56 60 59 MI : 1 90 87 90 10 12 10 MN : 8 12 11 5 4 4 2 2 87 82 83 NY : 5 5 5 90 90 90 5 5 5 ND : 11 15 15 16 17 15 2 2 2 71 66 68 OR : 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 96 95 95 WA : 1 2 2 1 3 5 3 96 92 95 WI : 2 4 3 29 14 33 69 82 64 : 10 St Avg: 2 4 3 10 10 11 2 2 2 86 84 84 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December 2006 Revised. Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and Fall Season States, 2003-2006 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2003 : 3,528 2,100 167 1 343 3,184 : 2004 : 3,648 2,300 213 1 292 3,355 : 2005 : 3,306 1,300 226 331 2,975 : 2006 : 3,783 1,500 CO : : : 2003 : 23,652 15,300 1,625 1,410 2,507 19,735 : 2004 : 23,791 15,800 1,513 1,300 2,286 20,205 : 2005 : 22,910 15,000 1,498 1,200 1,650 20,060 : 2006 : 22,686 15,200 ID : : : 2003 : 123,180 76,500 7,810 1,463 8,900 112,817 : 2004 : 131,970 84,500 7,150 1,250 10,902 119,818 : 2005 : 118,288 75,500 7,260 1,230 7,800 109,258 : 2006 : 121,820 74,500 ME : : : 2003 : 17,030 12,100 1,245 215 2,430 14,385 : 2004 : 19,065 12,800 1,231 190 4,900 13,975 : 2005 : 15,455 11,200 1,274 242 1,183 14,030 : 2006 : 18,270 13,000 MI : : : 2003 : 15,015 7,700 1,060 265 1,680 13,070 : 2004 : 13,650 6,300 860 194 1,656 11,800 : 2005 : 13,910 6,200 1,056 182 1,728 12,000 : 2006 : 14,190 6,600 MN : : : 2003 : 22,330 12,400 1,060 130 1,800 20,400 : 2004 : 18,920 11,600 837 100 1,750 17,070 : 2005 : 17,630 11,100 1,061 140 1,600 15,890 : 2006 : 20,400 10,700 MT : : : 2003 : 3,339 3,000 268 160 270 2,909 : 2004 : 3,551 3,400 257 156 276 3,119 : 2005 : 3,445 3,300 242 156 210 3,079 : 2006 : 3,518 3,400 NE : : : 2003 : 9,744 5,600 616 194 840 8,710 : 2004 : 9,288 5,300 519 212 906 8,170 : 2005 : 8,245 4,700 515 231 834 7,180 : 2006 : 8,633 4,800 NY : : : 2003 : 6,510 1,600 440 100 520 5,890 : 2004 : 5,184 1,600 451 100 513 4,571 : 2005 : 5,226 2,200 453 100 491 4,635 : 2006 : 5,700 1,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and Fall Season States, 2003-2006 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2003 : 27,440 17,300 1,995 390 3,700 23,350 : 2004 : 26,765 17,500 1,794 240 2,825 23,700 : 2005 : 20,500 11,500 1,900 240 1,810 18,450 : 2006 : 25,480 15,000 OH 1/ : : : 2003 : 1,097 190 76 6 40 1,051 : 2004 : 1,080 100 73 6 33 1,041 : 2005 : : 2006 : OR : : : 2003 : 20,991 15,800 883 275 1,290 19,426 : 2004 : 19,775 14,500 955 241 1,264 18,270 : 2005 : 22,023 16,500 837 255 1,392 20,376 : 2006 : 18,533 13,900 PA 1/ : : : 2003 : 3,375 1,500 228 42 287 3,046 : 2004 : 2,640 1,100 253 39 216 2,385 : 2005 : : 2006 : WA : : : 2003 : 93,150 44,000 4,000 280 5,600 87,270 : 2004 : 93,810 43,000 3,850 240 5,600 87,970 : 2005 : 95,480 46,500 3,900 240 6,000 89,240 : 2006 : 89,900 42,500 WI : : : 2003 : 32,800 18,500 1,562 300 2,750 29,750 : 2004 : 30,450 16,900 1,360 260 1,985 28,205 : 2005 : 27,880 15,500 1,474 300 1,380 26,200 : 2006 : 29,370 17,000 15 Sts 2/ : : : 2003 : 403,181 233,590 23,035 5,231 32,957 364,993 : 2004 : 403,587 236,700 21,316 4,529 35,404 363,654 : 2005 : 374,298 220,500 21,696 4,516 26,409 343,373 : 2006 : 382,283 220,000 Fall Sts : : : 2003 : 410,588 23,387 5,254 33,579 371,755 : 2004 : 410,253 21,593 4,549 35,923 369,781 : 2005 : 382,743 22,338 4,545 27,115 351,083 : 2006 : 391,978 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stock estimates discontinued in 2005. 2/ 13 storage States starting in 2005. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 2001-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 2001 : 393,631 358,812 91.2 34,819 8.8 28,625 2002 : 413,581 378,796 91.6 34,785 8.4 28,149 2003 : 410,588 371,755 90.5 38,833 9.5 26,687 2004 : 410,253 369,781 90.1 40,472 9.9 24,768 2005 : 382,743 351,083 91.7 31,660 8.3 25,628 2006 : 391,978 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2003-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 :Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2003 : 15.0 17.4 20.5 22.6 25.4 27.5 29.9 33.0 2004 : 15.5 19.1 22.0 24.8 27.3 29.7 32.5 35.4 2005 1/ : 12.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.2 22.0 23.7 26.4 2006 1/ 2/ : 13.5 16.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 13 fall storage States. 2/ December 1, 2006, shrink and loss revised. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2003-2005 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2003 : 13 12 15 14 9 8 10 7 12 : 2004 : 8 9 21 13 8 14 12 7 8 : 2005 : 4 14 22 10 11 12 12 8 7 CO : : : 2003 : 6 8 9 10 11 9 12 14 8 7 6 : 2004 : 5 7 9 10 10 8 12 10 11 11 7 : 2005 : 5 8 10 10 10 8 11 10 12 10 6 ID : : : 2003 : 4 8 10 11 8 7 8 10 11 11 6 6 : 2004 : 6 9 10 11 7 6 6 9 10 9 10 7 : 2005 : 2 11 13 8 7 8 7 11 10 10 6 7 ME : : : 2003 : 1 5 11 8 9 10 10 11 15 10 6 4 : 2004 : 1 9 6 7 10 10 10 11 15 10 7 4 : 2005 : 5 11 8 9 10 9 12 15 10 6 5 MI : : : 2003 : 1 7 8 11 11 11 10 8 13 12 8 : 2004 : 1 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 10 9 5 : 2005 : 1 8 11 13 12 12 12 10 10 8 3 MN : : : 2003 : 9 10 10 9 6 5 6 9 10 9 9 8 : 2004 : 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 13 7 9 10 9 : 2005 : 7 6 4 7 15 12 12 14 9 3 6 5 NY : : : 2003 : 1 8 29 20 17 8 7 6 4 : 2004 : 4 16 19 16 13 10 9 8 5 : 2005 : 2 14 14 12 13 10 12 14 7 2 ND : : : 2003 : 23 10 6 7 6 9 7 11 10 9 2 : 2004 : 1 20 9 6 6 8 7 11 11 7 8 6 : 2005 : 2 25 13 5 9 9 9 8 10 7 2 1 OR : : : 2003 : 10 9 19 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 5 3 : 2004 : 12 11 16 8 6 4 9 10 9 8 4 3 : 2005 : 17 10 13 5 7 5 8 9 10 8 4 4 PA 1/ : : : 2003 : 15 18 14 11 10 10 9 6 5 2 : 2004 : 1 18 16 15 8 15 8 6 5 6 2 : 2005 : WA : : : 2003 : 16 12 22 7 6 5 7 6 6 7 5 1 : 2004 : 18 14 21 6 5 5 7 6 6 6 5 1 : 2005 : 14 13 23 7 6 4 6 7 7 7 5 1 WI : : : 2003 : 1 6 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 9 7 2 : 2004 : 6 14 12 12 9 9 9 11 10 6 2 : 2005 : 1 6 16 11 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 2 : : US : : : 2003 : 7 10 14 10 8 7 8 9 10 9 5 3 : 2004 : 9 11 13 9 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 : 2005 : 7 12 14 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 5 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Farm marketing estimates discontinued in 2005. January Potato Stocks Virtually Unchanged from Last Year The 13 major potato States held 220 million cwt of potatoes in storage January 1, 2007, virtually unchanged from last year but 7 percent below January 1, 2005, for comparable States. Ohio and Pennsylvania were dropped from the potato stocks program starting with the 2005 storage season. Potatoes in storage account for 58 percent of the 2006 fall storage States' production, down 1 percentage point from last year. Klamath Basin stocks were added to the potato stocks program starting with December 2006 and total 3.40 million cwt on January 1, 2007. Klamath Basin includes California and Klamath County, Oregon potato stocks. Disappearance of 162 million cwt from the start of harvest to January 1, is up 6 percent from last year. Shrink and loss, at 16.1 million cwt, is up 7 percent from the pervious year. Processors have used 88.5 million cwt of 2006 crop potatoes so far this season, up 9 percent from a year ago and 3 percent above 2 years ago. Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon total processing increased 12 percent from a year ago, Maine's total processing was 26 percent above the same date in 2006, and Washington and the rest of Oregon total processing was up 3 percent from last season. Dehydrating usage accounts for 16.5 million cwt of the total processing, up 5 percent from last year but 11 percent below the same date in 2005. Western States held 151 million cwt of potatoes in storage on January 1, down 4 percent from last year. Idaho's potato stocks are down 1 percent from last year, Washington's potato sheds held 9 percent less than last year, and Oregon's stocks declined 16 percent from last season. Colorado potato sheds held 1 percent more stocks than last year, Montana's stocks are up 3 percent from 2006, and California's potato stocks increased 15 percent from last season. Central States accounted for 54.1 million cwt of potato stocks on January 1, up 10 percent from last year. Wisconsin's potato stocks increased 10 percent from last year, North Dakota's sheds held 30 percent more, Michigan stocks are up 6 percent, and potato stocks in Nebraska are 2 percent above last season. Minnesota's potato stocks declined 4 percent from the same date in 2006. Eastern States stored 14.9 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, up 11 percent from last year. Maine's potato sheds held 16 percent more than last year, while New York's potato stocks declined 4 percent from a year ago. Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 220 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.6 percent or approximately 5.7 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.6 percent or approximately 10.1 million cwt. The 20-year (1986-2005) record of differences between the January 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.2 million cwt, ranging from 8.7 million cwt above the final to 14.3 million cwt below the final. During the 20-year period, the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 16 years and above 4 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final January 1 Stocks, United States, 1996-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1996 : 256,520 98.2 261,320 1997 : 240,850 97.7 246,550 1998 : 246,220 100.0 246,230 1999 : 238,160 99.3 239,910 2000 : 272,960 99.2 275,270 2001 : 233,420 103.9 224,680 2002 : 232,140 100.3 231,490 2003 : 233,880 100.1 233,590 2004 : 238,220 100.6 236,700 2005 : 218,900 99.3 220,500 2006 : 220,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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Agriculture at the Crossroads: Energy, Farm & Rural Policy March 1-2, 2007 Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia The Forum will feature Secretary Mike Johanns, distinguished guest speakers, and a panel of America's leading CEOs focusing on the impact of bioenergy on agriculture. Attendees at the 83rd annual Outlook Forum will include top officials, industry analysts, business leaders, farmers and ranchers, and other experts in agriculture.  $300 if you register by Feb. 5, 2007  $350 if you register after Feb. 5, 2007 For a program preview & to register, go to: www.usda.gov/oce/forum  Topical sessions, including luncheon and dinner speakers  Networking opportunities, 1,500 expected to attend Find full program and registration details at agforum@oce.usda.gov or write to 2007 Outlook Forum, Room 4426 South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250-3812.