FEED OUTLOOK November 15, 1999 November 1999 FDS-1199 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ FEED OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 was released on April 26, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-1999, $21. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ HIGHLIGHTS o Feed Grain Production Increased from Last Month, Ending Stocks Up o 1999 Corn Production Increased from Last Month, Prices Weaker o Sorghum Production Raised from Last Month, Barley and Oats Lowered o World Coarse Grain Production, Use, and Stocks Up This Month FEED GRAIN SUPPLY INCREASES FROM LAST MONTH U.S. feed grain production in 1999 is forecast at 266 million metric tons, up 1 percent from a month ago but down 2 percent from 1998. Corn and sorghum production were up this month, but barley and oats were down. Feed grain supply in 1999/2000 is forecast at 319.8 million tons, up 1 percent from last month, and up nearly 2 percent from 1998/99. Supplies are up from last year because of larger beginning stocks. Year-over-year increases in supply will exceed a slight increase in use in 1999/2000. Total feed grain use is projected at 262 million tons, unchanged from last month and up 1.5 million from 1998/99. On a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 1999/2000 is unchanged from last month and up 2 percent from last year. The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) for 1999/2000 is 89.4 million units, up 1 percent from last month and 1998/99. Feed and residual used per GCAU in 1999/2000 is 1.81 tons, up 1 percent from 1998/99. In the index components for 1999/2000, GCAUs for dairy and hogs are down and those for cattle and poultry are up. Increased cattle on feed on October 1, 1999, raised forecast GCAUs for 1999/2000. CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST RAISED FROM LAST MONTH Corn production in 1999 is forecast at 9,537 million bushels, up 70 million from last month and down 2 percent from 1998. The average corn yield is forecast at 134.5 bushels per acre, compared with last month's 133.5 bushels and the actual 1998 yield of 134.4 bushels. This would be the second highest yield ever, trailing only the 138.6 bushels per acre in 1994. The yield increase resulted from increases in 11 States. Forecast ending stocks in 1999/2000 are 2,039 million bushels, up 4 percent from last month and the highest since 1992/93. Corn use in 1999/2000 is unchanged from last month. With increased corn supplies in 1999/2000 leading to higher ending stocks, prices are lower. The forecast price for 1999/2000 is $1.60-$2.00 per bushel, down from last month's $1.65-$2.05. In 1998/99, the season-average price received by farmers is expected to be $1.95. SORGHUM CROP INCREASED THIS MONTH Sorghum production in 1999 is forecast at 596 million bushels, up 3 percent from last month because of higher yields. Production is up 15 percent from 1998's 520 million bushels. Yields are forecast at 70.1 bushels per acre, up 1.8 bushels from last month and 2.8 bushels above last year. Record yields are expected in Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. With larger supplies this month and use unchanged, ending stocks in 1999/2000 increased to the highest since 1992/93. The forecast season-average price for sorghum was lowered 5 cents on each end of the range in line with the corn price. In the 1998/99 marketing year, prices received by farmers for sorghum averaged 87 percent of the corn price. The midpoint of the 1999/2000 sorghum prices is 86 percent of the midpoint of the expected corn price. The estimated price for 1998/99 is $1.70 per bushel, which would be 87 percent of the estimated corn price. BARLEY PRODUCTION DECREASES Barley production for 1999 is estimated at 282 million bushels, down 2 million this month, and 20 percent below 1998. Yields averaged 59.2 bushels per acre, down 1 percent from last year. Since the harvest was late in North Dakota and Montana, a special survey was taken this year for these States and resulted in reduced barley area and yields. OATS PRODUCTION FORECAST SLIPS The resurvey of North Dakota and Montana also led to changes in the oats crop. The 1999 oats crop is forecast at 147 million bushels, down 1 million from the September 30 forecast, and down 19 million from 1998. This is the lowest production since records were first kept in 1866. The forecast yield is down 0.5 bushels from last year's 60.2 bushels per acre. Estimated total use is unchanged from last month, and the smaller supplies will result in lower ending stocks. Prices received by farmers in 1999/2000 are expected to average between $1.05 and $1.15 per bushel, up from $1.00 to $1.10 last month. Prices for 1998/99 were $1.10 per bushel. INCREASED BARLEY PRODUCTION BOOSTS WORLD COARSE GRAIN STOCKS Forecast 1999/2000 world coarse grain production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks increased slightly this month. Global production is forecast to reach 876 million tons, up 6 million this month. Foreign production is up 4 million tons, mostly barley in the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and Canada. Now that harvest is mostly complete, government reports indicate that production in these countries was larger than expected. World sorghum production also increased with larger estimates for Mexico and the United States. In the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, barley consumption and ending stocks forecasts increased this month, with ending stocks in the former Soviet Union forecast to be almost double those of a month earlier. This month Kazakstan, Canada, and Romania are expected to have larger barley exports, boosting world trade to near last year's 17 million tons. Israel is expected to boost barley imports because of strong feed demand. China's barley imports also increased because of growing demand for malting barley. Foreign corn supply and demand changes were mostly offsetting. Larger forecast imports by Russia, based on larger U.S. concessional sales, are mostly offset by reduced expectations for Mexico. Increased Mexican sorghum production and low prices received by corn producers reduced corn imports. U.S. 1998/99 SORGHUM EXPORTS UP Based on stronger-than-expected late season shipments to Mexico, U.S. 1998/99 (October/September) sorghum exports were revised up 150,000 tons to 5.15 million. This puts U.S. sorghum exports at nearly the same level for the last 3 years. On the same international coarse grain marketing year, U.S. barley exports were estimated unchanged this month at 575,000 tons, but imports were reduced by 75,000 tons to 625,000 because of the reduced pace of imports from Canada. This leaves the United States a small net importer of barley in 1998/99. ************************************************************** Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released December 14, 1999. ************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,233 3 9,662 383 1,890 487 2,759 6,903 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,903 --- 2 6,905 394 1,492 525 2,411 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 465 1,103 433 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 450 814 353 1,617 883 2.49 Mkt. yr. 426 9,233 13 9,672 1,692 5,299 1,797 8,789 883 2.71 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,207 2 10,092 429 2,036 380 2,845 7,247 2.53 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 1 7,248 418 1,510 380 2,308 4,940 2.55 Mar-May 4,940 --- 4 4,944 464 1,089 350 1,904 3,040 2.45 Jun-Aug 3,040 --- 2 3,042 470 870 394 1,734 1,308 2.12 Mkt. yr. 883 9,207 9 10,099 1,782 5,505 1,504 8,791 1,308 2.43 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,761 4 11,073 444 2,127 450 3,021 8,052 1.90 Dec-Feb 8,052 --- 6 8,058 427 1,467 465 2,359 5,698 2.04 Mar-May 5,698 --- 7 5,706 489 1,103 497 2,089 3,616 2.04 Jun-Aug 3,616 --- 2 3,618 462 791 568 1,822 1,796 1.84 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,761 19 11,088 1,822 5,489 1,981 9,291 1,796 1.95 1999/00 Mkt. yr.1,796 9,537 10 11,344 1,880 5,500 1,925 9,305 2,039 1.60-2.00 SORGHUM 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 795 0 814 15 276 56 346 467 2.45 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 15 119 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 10 85 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 6 37 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 795 0 814 45 516 205 766 47 2.34 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 634 0 681 18 239 49 307 374 2.26 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 18 38 83 139 235 2.24 Mar-May 235 --- 0 235 12 71 55 139 96 2.16 Jun-Aug 96 --- 0 96 6 17 24 47 49 2.08 Mkt. yr. 47 634 0 681 55 365 212 632 49 2.21 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 178 41 234 335 1.68 Dec-Feb 335 --- 0 335 15 34 64 113 222 1.70 Mar-May 222 --- 0 222 10 45 51 106 116 1.72 Jun-Aug 116 --- 0 116 6 5 41 51 65 1.61 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 262 197 504 65 1.70 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 65 596 0 661 55 325 200 580 81 1.35-1.75 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 392 9 501 44 136 7 187 314 3.11 Sep-Nov 314 --- 8 322 39 25 12 76 246 2.74 Dec-Feb 246 --- 8 254 37 38 7 82 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 75 109 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 392 37 529 172 217 31 419 109 2.74 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 360 12 482 44 87 24 155 327 2.31 Sep-Nov 327 --- 7 334 39 12 39 90 244 2.45 Dec-Feb 244 --- 8 252 37 29 6 72 180 2.42 Mar-May 180 --- 13 193 53 16 5 74 119 2.26 Mkt. yr. 109 360 40 510 172 144 74 390 119 2.38 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 152 326 2.02 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 16 8 63 271 1.97 Dec-Feb 271 --- 6 277 37 32 7 76 201 1.90 Mar-May 201 --- 9 210 51 12 5 68 142 1.84 Mkt. yr. 119 352 30 501 170 161 28 360 142 1.98 1999/00 Jun-Aug 142 282 6 429 44 81 9 134 295 2.00 Mkt. yr. 142 282 30 454 172 125 30 327 127 1.80-2.20 OATS 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 153 6 226 24 69 1.0 94 132 2.08 Sep-Nov 132 --- 39 171 22 22 0.8 45 126 1.84 Dec-Feb 126 --- 28 154 20 37 0.3 58 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 28 25 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 153 97 317 95 153 2.5 250 67 1.96 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 167 19 253 24 74 0.4 98 155 1.62 Sep-Nov 155 --- 38 193 22 26 0.7 49 144 1.54 Dec-Feb 144 --- 26 170 21 38 0.5 59 111 1.59 Mar-May 111 --- 15 127 28 24 0.5 53 74 1.60 Mkt. yr. 67 167 98 332 95 161 2.1 258 74 1.60 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 166 28 268 24 82 0.5 106 162 1.15 Sep-Nov 162 --- 36 198 22 32 0.4 54 143 1.08 Dec-Feb 143 --- 22 166 21 32 0.5 53 113 1.20 Mar-May 113 --- 22 134 28 25 0.3 53 81 1.23 Mkt. yr. 74 166 108 348 95 170 1.7 266 81 1.10 1999/00 Jun-Aug 81 147 22 250 24 78 0.6 102 147 1.10 Mkt. yr. 81 147 100 328 96 165 2.0 263 65 1.05-1.15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1996/97 Sep-Nov 48.0 7.0 0.5 0.4 56.0 -2.1 53.9 Dec-Feb 37.9 3.0 0.8 0.6 42.4 0.8 43.2 Mar-May 28.0 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.0 -0.7 30.3 Jun-Aug 20.7 0.9 1.9 1.1 24.6 9.6 34.2 Mkt. yr. 134.6 13.1 3.6 2.6 154.0 7.7 161.6 85.3 1.89 % Change 12.6 74.8 -17.9 1.3 14.8 24.8 15.3 0.4 14.8 1997/98 Sep-Nov 51.7 6.1 0.3 0.5 58.5 -3.1 55.5 Dec-Feb 38.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 40.6 0.0 40.6 Mar-May 27.7 1.8 0.3 0.4 30.2 0.3 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.1 0.4 2.2 1.3 26.0 11.6 37.6 Mkt. yr. 139.8 9.3 3.4 2.8 155.3 8.8 164.1 87.9 1.87 % Change 3.9 -29.3 -5.6 7.3 0.9 14.5 1.5 3.1 -1.5 1998/99 Sep-Nov 54.0 4.5 0.3 0.6 59.4 -2.0 57.4 Dec-Feb 37.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 39.4 0.4 39.7 Mar-May 28.0 1.2 0.3 0.4 29.9 1.0 30.9 Jun-Aug 20.1 0.1 1.8 1.2 23.2 7.6 30.7 Mkt. yr. 139.4 6.7 3.1 2.7 151.8 6.9 158.8 88.5 1.79 % Change -0.3 -28.1 -10.3 -3.6 -2.2 -21.3 -3.3 0.7 -3.9 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 139.7 8.3 2.8 2.7 153.4 8.1 161.5 89.4 0.15 % Change 0.2 23.9 -9.1 1.6 1.0 16.8 1.7 1.0 -91.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 98/99 3/ 1.97 2.35 3.78 3.97 1.23 2.30 1.34 Monthly: 1998: Jun 2.29 2.64 4.65 4.32 NQ NQ 1.52 Jul 2.16 2.55 4.53 4.33 1.23 NQ 1.42 Aug 1.86 2.24 4.15 4.13 NQ 2.30 1.21 Sep 1.78 2.18 3.83 3.84 NQ NQ 1.30 1999: Jun 1.99 2.36 3.61 3.86 NQ NQ 1.34 Jul 1.67 2.12 3.40 3.46 NQ NQ 1.25 Aug 1.84 2.20 3.59 3.77 NQ NQ 1.20 Sep 1.81 2.21 3.39 3.64 NQ NQ 1.17 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------$/ton--------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 98/99 3/ 130.56 109.86 59.87 234.72 137.32 85.77 54.74 91.00 Monthly: 1998: Jun 157.80 126.00 61.90 225.60 161.80 81.00 57.90 96.50 Jul 173.30 145.60 58.75 252.50 171.25 86.00 67.84 93.40 Aug 135.70 130.30 57.50 245.00 156.80 86.00 53.40 90.20 Sep 126.90 115.60 51.50 210.00 133.40 NQ 43.90 87.10 1999: Jun 131.70 114.50 57.90 209.50 137.10 87.00 45.70 85.00 Jul 125.71 115.00 51.75 241.25 133.75 91.67 39.20 82.00 Aug 135.90 100.65 54.30 252.50 139.61 NQ 44.91 81.50 Sep 144.06 111.92 55.50 258.13 142.21 88.00 44.91 77.30 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ preliminary. NQ=No quote. Table 5--Corn: Food and industrial uses ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1996/97 Sep-Nov 113.2 60.0 55.0 91.9 29.0 33.6 382.6 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 106.2 33.0 33.2 394.4 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 119.2 34.0 33.9 445.4 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 111.4 34.0 33.9 449.0 Mkt year 503.8 245.8 228.6 428.7 130.0 134.6 1,671.5 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 116.1 33.2 34.0 429.1 Dec-Feb 116.8 56.2 56.7 122.2 32.8 33.6 418.3 Mar-May 139.4 60.7 58.3 118.3 33.5 34.4 444.5 Jun-Aug 153.4 64.7 58.9 124.6 33.5 34.4 469.4 Mkt year 532.3 244.9 233.5 481.1 133.0 136.5 1,761.2 1998/99 Sep-Nov 127.6 60.5 57.8 132.4 31.1 34.5 443.8 Dec-Feb 120.8 52.0 54.7 132.9 32.6 34.1 427.1 Mar-May 145.4 60.0 57.1 138.8 34.1 34.8 470.1 Jun-Aug 155.4 61.6 58.2 121.8 29.4 34.8 461.2 Mkt year 549.3 234.1 227.8 525.8 127.1 138.2 1,802.2 1999/00 Mkt year 565.0 240.0 235.0 550.0 129.9 140.0 1,859.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ 4/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 98/99 2/ 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 12.28 Monthly 1998: Jul 15.27 11.27 30.65 7.05 12.88 Aug 14.62 10.52 30.65 7.05 12.67 Sep 14.58 10.48 30.65 7.14 11.92 Oct 14.89 10.99 30.65 7.40 11.71 1999: Jul 14.72 10.62 16.38 8.45 12.73 Aug 15.12 11.27 16.38 8.45 11.74 Sep 15.28 11.18 16.38 8.45 12.01 Oct 2/ 14.89 10.75 16.38 9.25 11.89 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Revised. 4/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country/region ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Jun - Aug Mkt. yr. Jun - Aug Jun - Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- OATS --------------------Thousand tons------------------- Canada 1,282 281 1,142 241 273 Finland 161 25 216 54 24 Sweden 176 22 443 182 79 Total 1/ 1,696 328 1,856 477 376 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 733 221 567 103 120 Total 1/ 733 221 567 103 120 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 112 49 81 54 6 Total 1/ 143 49 81 54 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country/region ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Sep-Aug Sep-Aug Sep-Aug ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN Japan 14,821 14,581 15,110 Taiwan 5,482 3,801 4,365 Former USSR 184 23 405 South Africa 81 0 143 Sub-Saharan Africa 272 336 298 EU 1,704 147 192 Egypt 2,292 1,808 3,159 Canada 833 1,423 867 China 53 212 204 East Europe 385 19 12 Algeria 869 861 955 S. Korea 5,369 3,593 6,462 Mexico 3,155 4,116 5,387 Others 10,081 7,196 12,668 Total 45,581 38,117 50,228 SORGHUM Mexico 2,111 3,222 3,103 Japan 2,102 1,650 1,362 Others 948 463 433 Total 5,161 5,334 4,899 -------------------------------------------------------- ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Jun-Aug Mkt. yr. Jun-Aug Jun-Aug BARLEY -------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 922 346 0 0 0 Israel 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 53 0 0 0 0 Japan 290 88 422 134 123 Mexico 124 32 94 27 23 Taiwan 94 8 0 0 0 Other 135 57 99 8 51 Total 1,617 530 615 169 198 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE