FEED OUTLOOK February 12, 2001 February 2001 FDS-0201 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ FEED OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 will be released on April 25, 2001. Yearbooks are available in print from USDA Order Desk. For the 2001 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-2001, $21. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Total Feed Grains and Corn Ending Stocks Increased from Last Month o Ethanol Use of Corn Increased Because of Strong Demand o U.S. 2000/01 Corn Export Forecast Drops Because of Increased Competition o Global Coarse Grain Production, Trade, and Stocks Forecasts Increased FEED GRAIN ENDING STOCKS INCREASED FROM LAST MONTH U.S. feed grain ending stocks in 2000/01 are forecast at 52.7 million metric tons, up 4 percent from a month ago and up 8 percent from 1999/2000. Reduced exports of corn are only partially offset by increased domestic use. Total feed grain use is projected at 272.9 million tons, down 2.3 million tons from last month but up 4.8 million from 1999/2000. FEED AND RESIDUAL USE DOWN FROM LAST YEAR On a September-August marketing year basis, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2000/01 is down 0.2 million metric tons from last month and 1 percent from last year. The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) for 2000/01 is 90 million units, up 1.2 percent from 1999/2000. Feed and residual used per GCAU in 2000/01 is forecast at 1.82 tons, down 2.2 percent from 1999/2000. In the index components for 2000/01, GCAUs for hogs, dairy, beef, and poultry are up. The January 1, 2001, cattle inventory was down 1 percent from the 98.2 million head on January 1, 2000. However, all cattle and calves on feed were up 1 percent from last year. Poor forage and weather conditions resulted in higher than expected feedlot placements in early winter. In calendar 2001, beef production is estimated at 25.7 billion pounds, up 1 percent from last month, but down 4 percent from 2000. More cattle on feed and continued market premiums on Choice grade cattle will encourage feeders to maintain longer feeding times and heavier weights to achieve grade, and feed needs will remain strong. Production of broilers, turkeys, and eggs in 2001 is expected to increase from anticipated 2000 levels and maintain strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production is expected to increase 2 percent as producers respond to good export and domestic demand. Turkey producers are expected to increase production 4 percent. Egg producers are expected to produce 7.085 billion dozen eggs, up 1 percent from 2000. Pork production in 2000 is expected to increase 2 percent from last year and is unchanged from last month's estimate. In early December, hog farmers indicated they intended to increase the number of sows farrowing for the December 2000 to May 2001 period by 2 percent relative to the prior year. If producers carry through with these reported intentions, feed needs by the pork sector are likely to be stronger in 2000/01. Milk production in 2001 is expected to total 168.5 billion pounds, up from 168.0 billion in 2000. Feed use by the dairy industry will be little changed from the previous year. CORN STOCKS PROJECTED AT 1,891 MILLION BUSHELS Because of lower export prospects, the corn export forecast was decreased 100 million bushels this month to 2,050 million. However, the forecast is up 6 percent from last year. Food, seed, and industrial use was increased this month 15 million bushels due to higher expected ethanol production, and up 4 percent from 1999/2000. Ending stocks of corn in 2000/01 are projected to increase 5 percent from last month and increase 10 percent from last year. CORN USED TO PRODUCE ETHANOL EXPECTED TO INCREASE Monthly ethanol production reported by the Energy Information Administration in the Department of Energy indicates that corn used to make ethanol in December 2000 was record-high, and ending stocks of ethanol were down from the previous month and the year earlier. High MTBE prices relative to alcohol have encouraged splash blending for increased octane and use of ethanol in oxygenated and reformulated gasoline. Reduced prices of natural gas are expected to lower the cost of methanol, resulting in increased MTBE production in February. Even so, strong demand is expected for ethanol to be used to meet clean air requirements during the remainder of the marketing year. In addition, 42 companies have signed up to increase ethanol output by 246 million gallons in response to the Bioenergy Program, which provides incentives for increased production. Corn used to make ethanol in 2000/01 is estimated to be up 9 percent from the 566 million bushels used in 1999/2000. BARLEY USE REDUCED Barley supply was reduced this month to 454 million bushels, down 5 million from last month but up 4 million from last year. The reduction was caused by reduced imports thus far in the marketing year. In 2000/01, total use of barley is expected to be down 5 million bushels from the previous estimate, but up 3 percent from the 338 million bushels used in 1999/2000. Exports were raised 5 million bushels to reflect the increased sales and shipment pace to date, while feed and residual use is down 10 million from last month. HAY STOCKS PER RCAU DECREASE, PRICES STRONGER As reported last month, hay stocks on December 1 were down 5 percent from a year earlier. In addition, the annual cattle and calves inventory was released since the last report. All cattle and calves numbers on January 1, 2001, were down 1 percent from last year. Recalculated roughage consuming animal units (RCAU's) in 2000/01 are estimated to be down 1 percent from 1999/2000. Hay stocks are 1.43 tons per RCAU, down from 1.49 last year. Midmonth prices for all hay reported by farmers in January 2001 were $84.90 per ton, down from $85.10 in December, and down from 72.90 in January 1999. Prices had been strengthening relative to a year earlier. Prices received for alfalfa hay in January were $91.30 per ton, up from $91.00 in December but down from $76.00 a year earlier. Other hay prices averaged $2.83 per ton above a year earlier during May through January. In January, the price of other hay was $69.50 per ton, down from $70.40 in December and down from $66.10 a year earlier. Given current estimates of livestock numbers and hay stocks, prices may remain strong for the remainder of the hay marketing year. PRICE EXPECTATIONS WEAKER FOR CORN The projected price range for corn is narrowed to $1.70-$1.90 per bushel, leaving the mid-point of the range down 5 cents from last month. The sorghum price forecast was also narrowed this month to $1.65-$1.85 per bushel. Sorghum prices to date have averaged 99 percent of the corn price. The all barley price is forecast at $2.05-$2.25 per bushel. From June 2000- January 2001, the simple average of barley farm prices was $2.15 per bushel, up from $2.07 in the same period a year earlier. Malting barley's premium over feed barley has remained wide, averaging 81 cents so far, compared with 83 cents for the same period a year earlier, and the 10-year weighted average of 56 cents. The oats price is forecast at $1.05-$1.15 per bushel, up 5 cents on each end from last month. Farm prices for oats from June 2000-January 2001 averaged $1.10, down from $1.11 for the same period in 1999/2000. LDPs SUPPORT FEED GRAIN FARMERS' INCOME The 1996 Farm Act contained key policy tools to assist farmers when market prices are low. The key provisions are the 'nonrecourse marketing assistance loans' and 'loan deficiency payments' (LDPs). Producers that entered into Production Flexibility Contracts with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are eligible to participate in these programs. As of February 7, 2001, feed grain producers had outstanding loans on 1,259 million bushels of corn, 14.5 million of sorghum, 15.3 million bushels of barley, and 1.7 million of oats. Total corn loans repaid for the 2000 crop were 319 million bushels, with a market gain value of $81 million or 26 cents per bushel. For sorghum, 7.2 million bushels had been repaid, with a market gain of $1.6 million or 30 cents per bushel. Total barley loans repaid was 8 million bushels, with a market gain of $1.3 million or 24 cents per bushel. For oats, 536,380 bushels had been repaid for a market gain of $169,230 or 32 cents per bushel. As of February 7, 2001, producers collected $2,187 million in LDPs covering 7,351 million bushels of 2000-crop corn or about 74 percent of the 2000 crop harvested as grain. (LDPs are also paid on the grain equivalent of crops made into silage or hay.) The average payment rate was 30 cents per bushel. Sorghum producers have collected $79 million in LDPs on their 2000 crop, covering 280 million bushels or 60 percent of the crop. The average payment rate was 28 cents per bushel. For barley, producers have collected $66 million in LDPs covering 238 million bushels or about 75 percent of the crop. The average payment rate was 28 cents per bushel. Oats producers have collected $42 million in LDPs covering 141 million bushels or about 95 percent of the 2000 crop. The average payment rate was 30 cents per bushel. U.S. 2000/01 CORN EXPORT FORECAST DROPS BECAUSE OF INCREASED COMPETITION U.S. 2000/01 corn exports are forecast at 52.0 million tons, down 2.5 million from a month ago (for September/August, 2.05 billion bushels, down 100 million bushels). Increased competition is expected from China and Argentina. China's 2000/01 corn exports are expected to reach 6.0 million tons, up 2 million this month. Exports are expected to continue from the northern growing regions where stocks remain large despite sharply reduced production. Shipments in the first three months of the year were 2.74 million tons. Sales are ongoing, but at a slower pace than a year ago, concentrating on markets in Malaysia, Indonesia, and some buyers in South Korea who prefer smaller vessels. The Government is expected to continue to provide export subsidies in coming months. Although up from last month, China's forecast corn exports are still expected to decline significantly from nearly 10 million tons a year ago. Moreover, the combination of reduced production, increased consumption, and continued significant exports, is expected to drop China's corn stocks during 2000/01. Corn export forecasts were also increased this month for Argentina and Brazil. Although prospects remain unchanged for the Argentine corn crop that will begin to be harvested in March 2001, the previous year's crop was revised up 0.5 million tons to 17.2 million tons. The 1999/2000 crop was raised because of the pace of exports, export sales, and domestic use indicates that the crop is larger than previously estimated. This boosted forecast October/September 2000/01 Argentine corn exports by 700,000 tons to 10.7 million. Brazil's 2000/01 record corn crop forecast increased this month by 1.5 million tons to 38.5 million. Area planted increased by 1 million hectares to 13.5 million because of increased prices during planting when the minor, or winter corn crop was hit by frost. Growing conditions have been generally favorable, and record yields are expected. Most of the increased production is expected to be used to replenish stocks and maintain consumption growth, but some corn is being exported to the European Union (EU). Brazil's 2000/01 October/September corn export forecast increased 200,000 tons this month to 500,000. With larger than expected competition, U.S. corn export prospects were reduced sharply this month. According to U.S. grain inspections, corn exports through February 1, 2001, were down 12 percent compared with a year ago. In addition, according to U.S. Export Sales, as of February 1, 2001, outstanding corn sales were down slightly from a year ago. Although reduced from a month ago, 2000/01 U.S. corn exports are still forecast to increase about 6 percent compared with a year earlier. Clearly, the pace of sales and shipments during the second half of the marketing year is still expected to be strong. The pace of sales during coming months will be helped by slowing exports from China, but will still face the arrival of a new crop in Argentina. Argentina's new corn crop is expected to be somewhat smaller than a year ago, but still large. However, Argentina is expected to ship less corn to Brazil this year, leaving large supplies for other markets. How quickly Argentina sells new-crop corn will be an important determinant of U.S. corn exports during the latter half of 2000/01. The U.S. barley export forecast was increased slightly because of stronger than expected sales to date. Import demand for barley remains strong from North Africa and the Middle East because of drought in some areas for the last 2 years, boosting barley prices compared with competing feed grains. The U.S. barley import forecast was reduced slightly this month. GLOBAL COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, TRADE, AND STOCKS FORECASTS INCREASED THIS MONTH World coarse grain production forecast for 2000/01 increased 1.3 million tons this month to 860 million. Increased corn production in Brazil was partly offset by reduced production prospects in South Africa. Although up from last month's forecast, global coarse grain production is expected to decline 2 percent in 2000/01, the second straight year of significant decline. Global coarse grain stocks are forecast at 142 million tons, up slightly this month. The sharp increase in U.S. stocks is mostly offset by reduced stocks expected in other countries, especially China. Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 The next Feed Outlook will be released March 12, 2001. Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,759 4 11,071 450 2,118 450 3,019 8,052 1.90 Dec-Feb 8,052 --- 6 8,058 434 1,460 465 2,359 5,698 2.04 Mar-May 5,698 --- 7 5,706 495 1,097 497 2,089 3,616 2.04 Jun-Aug 3,616 --- 2 3,618 468 795 568 1,831 1,787 1.80 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,759 19 11,085 1,846 5,471 1,981 9,298 1,787 1.94 1999/00 Sep-Nov 1,787 9,431 4 11,221 459 2,189 534 3,182 8,039 1.71 Dec-Feb 8,039 --- 3 8,043 447 1,526 468 2,441 5,602 1.91 Mar-May 5,602 --- 6 5,607 512 1,059 451 2,021 3,586 2.05 Jun-Aug 3,586 --- 2 3,588 496 890 485 1,871 1,718 1.68 Mkt. yr.1,787 9,431 15 11,232 1,913 5,664 1,937 9,515 1,718 1.82 2000/01 Sep-Nov 1,718 9,968 1 11,687 468 2,196 506 3,170 8,518 1.76 Mkt. yr.1,718 9,968 10 11,696 1,980 5,775 2,050 9,805 1,891 1.70-1.90 SORGHUM 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 178 41 234 335 1.65 Dec-Feb 335 --- 0 335 15 34 64 113 222 1.69 Mar-May 222 --- 0 222 10 45 51 106 116 1.73 Jun-Aug 116 --- 0 116 6 5 41 51 65 1.59 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 262 197 504 65 1.66 1999/00 Sep-Nov 65 595 0 660 18 228 65 311 349 1.45 Dec-Feb 349 --- 0 349 18 29 77 124 226 1.58 Mar-May 226 --- 0 226 13 22 64 99 127 1.83 Jun-Aug 127 --- 0 127 6 6 50 62 65 1.63 Mkt. yr. 65 595 0 660 55 284 256 595 65 1.57 2000/01 Sep-Nov 65 470 0 535 16 193 64 274 262 1.72 Mkt. yr. 65 470 0 535 50 240 200 490 45 1.65-1.85 BARLEY 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 152 326 2.04 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 16 8 63 271 1.99 Dec-Feb 271 --- 6 277 37 32 7 76 201 1.94 Mar-May 201 --- 9 210 51 12 5 68 142 1.90 Mkt. yr. 119 352 30 501 170 161 28 360 142 1.98 1999/00 Jun-Aug 142 280 6 428 44 79 9 132 295 2.18 Sep-Nov 295 --- 5 300 39 24 10 73 228 2.04 Dec-Feb 228 --- 9 237 37 23 7 67 170 2.14 Mar-May 170 --- 7 178 52 10 4 66 111 2.19 Mkt. yr. 142 280 28 450 172 136 30 338 111 2.13 2000/01 Jun-Aug 111 318 7 436 44 90 8 142 294 2.35 Sep-Nov 294 --- 5 299 39 6 25 70 229 1.92 Mkt. yr. 111 318 25 454 172 120 55 347 107 2.05-2.25 OATS 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 166 28 268 17 89 0.5 106 162 1.15 Sep-Nov 162 --- 36 198 16 38 0.4 54 143 1.08 Dec-Feb 143 --- 22 166 14 38 0.5 53 113 1.20 Mar-May 113 --- 22 134 22 31 0.3 53 81 1.23 Mkt. yr. 74 166 108 348 69 196 1.7 266 81 1.10 1999/00 Jun-Aug 81 146 22 249 17 84 0.6 101 148 1.05 Sep-Nov 148 --- 34 182 16 32 0.3 49 134 1.08 Dec-Feb 134 --- 23 157 14 40 0.2 55 102 1.22 Mar-May 102 --- 20 122 21 24 0.7 46 76 1.31 Mkt. yr. 81 146 99 326 68 180 1.8 250 76 1.12 2000/01 Jun-Aug 76 149 21 246 17 79 0.4 96 150 1.02 Sep-Nov 150 --- 37 187 16 26 0.5 43 144 1.04 Mkt. yr. 76 149 100 325 68 175 2.0 245 80 1.05-1.15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1998/99 Sep-Nov 53.8 4.5 0.3 0.6 59.3 -2.0 57.3 Dec-Feb 37.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 39.3 0.3 39.6 Mar-May 27.9 1.2 0.3 0.5 29.8 0.9 30.7 Jun-Aug 20.2 0.1 1.7 1.3 23.3 7.3 30.7 Mkt. yr. 39.0 6.7 3.0 3.0 151.7 6.5 158.2 88.1 1.80 % Change -0.2 -28.2 -11.5 -1.5 -2.1 -25.9 -3.4 0.1 -3.5 1999/00 Sep-Nov 55.6 5.8 0.5 0.6 62.5 -0.2 62.3 Dec-Feb 38.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 40.6 0.8 41.5 Mar-May 26.9 0.6 0.2 0.4 28.1 -0.2 27.8 Jun-Aug 22.6 0.1 2.0 1.2 25.9 8.6 34.5 Mkt. yr. 143.9 7.2 3.2 2.8 157.1 9.0 166.1 89.0 1.87 % Change 3.5 8.4 4.9 -7.6 3.5 38.0 5.0 1.1 3.8 2000/01 Sep-Nov 55.8 4.9 0.1 0.6 61.5 -0.5 61.0 Mkt. yr. 146.7 6.1 2.3 1.5 156.6 7.7 164.3 90.1 1.82 % Change 2.0 -15.5 -28.3 -45.6 -0.3 -14.2 -1.1 1.2 -2.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 98/99 1.97 2.35 3.78 3.97 1.23 2.30 1.34 99/00 3/ 1.86 2.23 3.36 3.79 NQ NQ 1.26 Monthly: 1999: Sep. 1.81 2.21 3.39 3.64 NQ NQ 1.17 Oct. 1.72 2.17 3.30 3.55 NQ NQ 1.20 Nov. 1.82 2.17 3.33 3.59 NQ NQ 1.20 Dec 1.84 2.21 3.36 3.66 NQ NQ 1.28 2000: Sep. 1.58 2.03 3.68 3.75 NQ NQ NQ Oct. 1.81 2.15 3.95 4.06 1.30 2.24 NQ Nov. 1.96 2.26 4.03 4.36 1.42 2.39 NQ Dec.3/ 2.01 2.45 3.55 4.54 1.50 2.45 NQ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 98/99 130.56 109.86 59.87 234.76 137.32 84.87 54.74 88.10 99/00 158.15 124.00 52.89 237.31 163.13 82.93 53.13 80.20 Monthly: 1999: Sep 144.06 111.92 55.50 258.13 142.21 88.00 57.64 79.80 Oct 147.19 111.83 58.38 265.00 150.17 88.00 54.83 79.40 Nov 148.10 112.00 62.80 250.00 159.72 88.00 52.90 77.00 Dec 145.40 124.20 59.00 234.40 156.70 88.00 62.80 74.10 2000: Sep 166.88 153.12 46.75 227.50 182.63 73.00 53.88 87.20 Oct 166.02 150.00 51.00 247.00 182.05 73.00 52.35 89.70 Nov 173.67 142.50 57.75 263.75 211.14 73.00 57.12 90.40 Dec 3/ 187.90 160.83 66.00 273.13 226.64 77.00 81.50 91.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ=No quote. Table 5--Corn: Food and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1997/98 Sep-Nov 118.4 59.3 62.8 116.1 33.2 45.5 435.2 Dec-Feb 112.5 52.6 59.7 122.2 32.8 45.0 424.8 Mar-May 134.2 56.8 61.3 118.3 33.5 46.0 450.1 Jun-Aug 147.8 60.5 62.0 124.6 33.5 46.0 474.4 Mkt year 512.9 229.2 245.8 481.1 133.0 182.4 1,784.4 1998/99 Sep-Nov 123.1 56.6 60.8 132.4 31.1 45.9 449.9 Dec-Feb 116.6 48.7 57.6 132.9 32.6 45.4 433.8 Mar-May 140.5 56.2 60.1 138.8 34.1 46.4 476.0 Jun-Aug 150.2 57.7 61.2 121.8 29.4 46.4 466.7 Mkt year 530.5 219.1 239.8 525.8 127.1 184.2 1,826.4 1999/00 Sep-Nov 129.3 56.7 63.6 131.7 31.8 46.0 459.2 Dec-Feb 119.4 49.6 60.0 138.3 33.3 46.0 446.6 Mar-May 141.7 57.1 63.7 147.9 34.9 46.5 491.9 Jun-Aug 149.2 58.4 63.8 147.8 29.7 46.5 495.4 Mkt year 539.5 221.9 251.1 565.8 129.7 185.0 1,893.0 2000/01 Sep-Nov 126.0 56.2 63.4 142.9 31.8 47.2 467.5 Mkt year 550.0 220.0 255.0 615.0 130.0 190.0 1,960.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 98/99 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 12.28 99/00 2/ 15.05 10.91 16.38 9.18 12.39 Monthly 1999: Oct. 14.89 10.79 16.38 9.25 11.89 Nov. 14.42 10.32 16.38 9.25 11.65 Dec. 14.57 10.47 16.38 9.25 11.83 Jan. 15.12 11.02 16.38 9.25 11.98 2000: Oct. 15.60 11.50 16.75 8.61 11.95 Nov. 16.14 12.02 16.88 8.40 12.43 Dec. 16.13 12.03 16.88 8.75 12.88 Jan. 2/ 16.05 11.95 16.88 9.50 12.79 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. June-Nov. Mkt. yr. June-Nov. June-Nov. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,142 770 1,287 732 922 Finland 216 111 125 75 0 Sweden 443 212 276 154 71 Total 1/ 1,856 1,094 1,703 961 993 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 567 247 543 225 237 Total 1/ 567 247 543 225 237 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 81 66 60 15 27 Total 1/ 81 66 60 15 27 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. Sept.-Nov. Mkt. yr. Sept.-Nov. Sept.-Nov. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 15,224 3,480 15,149 3,996 3,553 Taiwan 4,365 1,118 5,036 1,386 1,020 Mexico 5,387 1,281 4,832 1,248 1,564 Egypt 3,586 770 3,790 907 1,325 S. Korea 6,462 1,326 3,134 1,412 474 Colombia 1,512 360 1,782 462 409 Saudi Arabia 1,182 312 1,164 380 312 Venezuela 1,288 289 1,073 221 338 Algeria 955 231 1,042 244 350 Dominican Republic 777 132 1,003 214 237 Canada 867 251 982 310 698 Turkey 692 65 874 0 97 Israel 399 63 695 139 234 Iran 0 0 611 449 144 Morocco 599 75 604 81 157 Syria 354 65 603 81 185 Chile 486 167 542 194 33 Tunisia 441 74 519 161 65 Sub-Saharan Africa 441 68 511 152 58 Former USSR 405 0 491 83 85 Peru 674 156 458 229 67 EU 192 124 141 0 4 China 259 154 58 58 0 East Europe 12 0 35 35 0 Others 3,667 850 3,967 1,088 1,419 Total 50,228 11,412 49,098 13,532 12,827 SORGHUM Mexico 3,103 573 4,824 1,215 1,141 Japan 1,362 380 1,123 370 296 EU 197 0 181 0 0 Others 237 35 239 59 120 Total 4,899 988 6,366 1,645 1,558 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. June-Nov. Mkt. yr. June-Nov. June-Nov. BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Japan 443 258 391 267 154 Mexico 94 50 104 65 61 Jordan 0 0 50 0 0 Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 0 251 Taiwan 0 0 5 5 57 Other 79 43 107 70 196 Total 615 351 657 407 721 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END OF FILE