FEED OUTLOOK October 16, 2000 October 2000 FDS-1000 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 was released on April 24, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-2000, $21. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o 2000 Corn Production Decreased from Last Month, Prices Strengthened o Barley Production Raised from Last Month, Sorghum and Oats Lowered o A Large Drop in Global Coarse Grain Stocks Now Expected in 2000/01 o U.S. Corn Export Prospects Boosted this Month FEED GRAIN SUPPLY DECREASES FROM LAST MONTH U.S. feed grain production in 2000 is forecast at 280 million tons, down 5 million from a month ago but up 17 million from 1999. Feed grain supply in 2000/01 is forecast at 331 million tons, down 2 percent from last month, but up 4 percent from 1999/2000. Beginning stocks are down from last month, and down 5 percent from the previous year. Year-over-year increases in supply will exceed an increase in use in 2000/01, and result in a slight increase in ending stocks. Total feed grain use is projected at 280 million tons, up 4 million from last month and up 12 million from 1999/2000. Domestic use is projected to increase 1 percent from last month and 2 percent from the 212 million expected in 1999/2000. Feed and residual use in 2000/01 is expected to total 161 million metric tons, up 2 percent from last month and a year ago because of an upward revision in last years use. On a September-August marketing year basis, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2000/01 is projected to total 166 million tons, down from 1999/2000's 167 million. Corn is estimated to account for 90 percent of feed and residual use in 2000/01, up from 86 percent in 1999/2000. The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU) for 2000/01 is up 1 percent from 1999/2000's 89.2 million units. Feed and residual used per GCAU in 2000/01 is 1.84 tons, down 2 percent from 1999/2000. In the index components for 2000/01, GCAUs for all the major categories are up, but the major change this month was in the pork component. The September Hogs and Pigs report indicates that producers are gearing up for expansion. Hog producers indicated intentions to have 1 percent more sows farrow in September-November and 3 percent more in December-February. As a result, pork production was increased nearly 3 percent for 2001. CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST LOWERED FROM LAST MONTH Corn production in 2000 is forecast at 10,192 million bushels, down 170 million from last month but up 755 million from 1999. Harvested acreage was reduced 50,000 acres this month because of continued dry weather in Colorado. The average corn yield is forecast at a record 139.6 bushels per acre, compared with last months 141.8 bushels and the actual 1999 yield of 133.8 bushels. If realized, this would still be the highest yield ever, surpassing the 138.6 bushels per acre in 1994. Projected 2000/01 ending stocks of corn are down 425 million bushels from last month because of smaller supplies and larger use. Projected corn feed and residual use is up 100 million bushels this month because of the upward revision in last years corn and smaller sorghum supplies. Corn exports for 2000/01 were increased 100 million bushels to 2,275 million because of reduced competition and expanding global demand. Corn used in the production of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and ethanol was unchanged this month for 2000/01 and reduced for 1999/2000. For all of 1999/2000, corn used to produce HFCS was up 2 percent from 1998/99. Corn used to make glucose and dextrose was up 1 percent and starch use was up 5 percent. Corn used to make ethanol was up 8 percent from the prior year, as higher prices for gasoline and MTBE (a competing oxygenate and octane booster) kept ethanol demand strong. For 2000/01, ethanol production is expected to increase 6 percent from last year. With increased corn use and lower supplies in 2000/01 leading to lower ending stocks this month, prices are higher. The forecast price for 2000/01 is $1.65-$2.05 per bushel, up from last months $1.50-$1.90. In 1999/2000, the season average price received by farmers is expected to be $1.80. SORGHUM CROP TO DECREASE IN 1999/2000 Sorghum production in 2000 is forecast at 465 million bushels, down 51 million from last month because of lower harvested acres and lower yields. Production is down 22 percent from 1999's 595 million bushels. Area harvested and to be harvested was down 8 percent from September at 7.67 million acres, and down 10 percent from the previous year. Drought conditions in the Southwestern States led to reductions in both harvested acreage and yield. Yields are forecast at 60.7 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from last month and 9 bushels below last year. With reduced production in 2000/01, sorghum feed and residual use and exports were reduced this month and ending stocks were lowered. Feed and residual use was lowered 15 million bushels to 230 million, and down 60 million from 1999/2000. This is the lowest feed and residual use since the series was revised back to 1975. Exports were lowered 20 million bushels this month and are down 50 million from the expected 1999/2000 exports. Ending stocks in 2000/01 are expected to total 51 million bushels, down 15 million from last month and down 14 million from 1999/2000. The forecast price for sorghum in 2000/01 is $1.45-$1.85 per bushel, up from $1.30-$1.70 last month, and approximately 88 to 90 percent of the corn price. In the 1998/99 marketing year, prices received by farmers for sorghum averaged 86 percent of the corn price. Projected prices for 1999/2000 are $1.55 per bushel, which would be 86 percent of the expected corn price. BARLEY PRODUCTION DECREASES Barley production for 2000 is estimated at 320 million bushels (published in the September 29 Small Grains Report), up 10.3 million from the September forecast, and up 39.9 million from 1999. Yields averaged 61.4 bushels per acre, up 2.2 bushels from last month and last year. The area harvested for grain is estimated at 5.21 million acres, down 24,000 from the last forecast but up 477,000 from a year ago. This is the second lowest harvested acreage following last years record low. North Dakota continued as the top barley producing State, followed by Idaho, Montana, Washington, and Minnesota. Total supplies in 2000/01 are projected up 2 percent from last month and up 3 percent from 1999/2000. Total barley use in 2000/01 is forecast up 10 million bushels from last month and up 19 million bushels from last year because of a larger supply. Total use was raised from last month because feed and residual disappearance during June through August was stronger than expected. Ending stocks are unchanged from last month and down 6 million from 1999/2000. Prices received by farmers for barley in 1999/2000 are expected to average $2.10-$2.40 per bushel, up from $1.80-$2.20 last month. The spread between malting barley and feed barley has been wider than normal, helping to strengthen the all barley price. OATS PRODUCTION FORECAST SLIPS The 2000 oats crop is estimated at 150.3 million bushels (published in the September 29 Small Grains Report), down 2 million from the previous forecast, but up 4 million from 1999. The forecast yield, at 64.4 bushels per acre, is up 2.1 bushels from the August estimate and 4.8 bushels higher than last year. Area harvested is estimated at a record low 2.33 million acres, 5 percent below the August forecast and 1999. The area harvested continues the steady downward trend and breaks last years record as the smallest acreage harvested for grain on record. The lower production this month has reduced total supplies of oats but total use is unchanged from last month, leading to lower ending stocks. Prices received by farmers in 2000/01 are expected to average between $1.05 and $1.25 per bushel, compared with $1.12 in 1999/2000. The forecast price is 107 to 111 percent of the corn price, compared with 109 percent in 1999/2000 on a per- pound basis. ALL HAY PRODUCTION TO DECREASE All hay production in 2000 is forecast at 153 million tons, down 6 million from 1999. The all hay yield is expected to be 2.48 tons per acre, down 2 percent from last year. Acreage harvested of all hay was down from August at 62 million acres, 2 percent lower than 1999. Alfalfa hay production, at 80 million tons, decreased 5 percent from 1999. Yields are expected to average 3.43 tons per acre, up 0.11 tons from August, but down 0.07 tons from last year. Area harvested is down 2 percent from August at 23.3 million acres, and down 3 percent from 1999. Other hay production is forecast at 72.7 million tons, down 3 percent from last years record production. Area harvested is down less than 1 percent from August at 38.3 million acres, and down 2 percent from last year's total. Yields are expected to average 1.90 tons per acre, slightly below the August forecast and down 0.02 ton from last year. Roughage consuming animal units (RCAUs) in 2000/01 are estimated to be down 1 percent from 1999/2000. With hay production down but beginning stocks up, hay supplies are down but on a per RCAU, hay supplies are 2.51 tons, the same as in 1999/2000. Hay prices have been stronger in 2000/01, reflecting reduced supplies. Prices received by farmers for all hay averaged $83.38 per ton in May-September 2000, up from $80.24 in 1999. Alfalfa hay prices in May-September averaged $87.26 per ton, up from $84.38 in 1999. Prices received by farmers for hay other than alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures averaged $69.30 per ton during May- September, up from $67.14 in 1999. LDPs SUPPORT FEED GRAIN FARMERS INCOME The 1996 Farm Act contained key policy tools to assist farmers when market prices are low. The key provisions are the "nonrecourse marketing assistance loans" and "loan deficiency payments" (LDPs). Producers that entered into Production Flexibility Contracts with USDA are eligible to participate in these programs. As of October 13, 2000, eligible producers collected $519 million in LDP's covering 1,203 million bushels of 2000-crop corn or about 12 percent of the 2000 crop. The average payment rate was 43 cents per bushel on 159,679 contracts. In 1999, 77 percent of the corn produced received an LDP. For the 2000 crop, sorghum producers have collected $51 million in LDPs covering 149 million bushels or about 32 percent of the crop. The average payment rate was 34 cents per bushel on 37,074 contracts. In 1999, 83 percent of the sorghum crop received an LDP. For barley, producers have collected $43 million in LDPs covering 156 million bushels or about 49 percent of the crop. The average payment rate was 28 cents per bushel on 29,827 contracts. In 1999, 73 percent of the barley crop received an LDP. Oats producers have collected $26 million in LDPs covering 89 million bushels or about 59 percent of the 2000 crop. The average payment rate was 29 cents per bushel on 48,577 contracts. In 1999, 84 percent of the oats crop received an LDP. WORLD COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION FORECAST REDUCED 18 MILLION TONS THIS MONTH Global coarse grain production forecast in 2000/01 was reduced sharply this month, with most of the drop concentrated in corn, a significant decline in sorghum, and small reductions in barley, oats, and rye. World coarse grain production is now expected to decline in 2000/01 to the lowest level since 1995/96. The largest reduction this month was Chinas corn production, down 10 million tons to 105 million. Area planted declined because of reduced support from the Government and low market prices caused by large stocks. Hot dry weather across much of Manchuria and parts of the North China Plain during much of the growing season reduced yields. Even with production down dramatically in 2000/01, Chinas large corn stocks are expected to limit import needs and facilitate continued increases in feeding. Large early-season (old crop) export sales are expected to limit the year-to-year drop in exports. Despite the large drop in production prospects, neither the consumption, import, nor export forecasts for 2000/01 were changed this month. U.S. production declines for corn and sorghum this month amounted to about half the drop in Chinas corn. Canadas forecast 2000/01 coarse grain production prospects declined 2 million tons this month based on preliminary Government estimates. Barley production prospects were reduced 1 million tons as uneven conditions, with some areas too dry and others too wet, across much of the Prairie Provinces took a larger toll than expected. Corn production prospects in Ontario declined because of cold wet growing conditions for most of the growing season. Oats production prospects also were reduced. Sudans sorghum production forecast was reduced this month by 1.8 million tons for 2000/01 and 1.2 million for 1999/2000. Production is now expected to only recover slightly from last years disaster. Sudan is no longer expected to export sorghum in 2000/01. Argentinas 2000/01 corn production forecast was reduced 1 million tons this month because prices of corn are not attractive as soybeans and area planted is now expected to decline instead of increase slightly. Corn production in South Africa is forecast down 0.5 million tons this month because low prices are causing a decline in area planted. However, larger-than-expected beginning stocks offset most of the reduced production, maintaining supplies and export prospects. Australias barley production forecast was reduced 0.3 million tons because of dryness in Western Australia and parts of Eastern Australia. This, in turn, limited export prospects. Corn production prospects for Brazil were reduced for 1999/2000 as losses caused by freeze damage to the second crop was confirmed. This boosted import prospects. However, higher corn prices are expected to boost area planted in 2000/01. Coarse grain production prospects for 2000/01 in the European Union and former Soviet Union increased this month mostly because of increased barley forecast for Ukraine and the United Kingdom. A LARGE DROP IN GLOBAL COARSE GRAIN STOCKS NOW EXPECTED IN 2000/01 A month ago, forecasts indicated that global coarse grain stocks in 2000/01 would decline slightly, as a large decline in foreign stocks would be mostly offset by a large increase in the United States. This month, prospects have changed significantly. The drop in projected foreign stocks is now 26 million tons, led by a 19-million reduction in China, while the increase in U.S. stocks amounts to only 2 million, despite record U.S. corn production. World coarse grain consumption is expected to exceed production by 24 million tons in 2000/01, mostly because of a production drop caused by unfavorable weather across China, Eastern Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. U.S. CORN EXPORT PROSPECTS BOOSTED THIS MONTH U.S. corn export forecasts for both 1999/2000 and 2000/01 were increased this month. The October/September 1999/2000 international marketing year forecast increased 1 million tons to 49 million because of very large export inspections reported for September. Chinas 1999/2000 export forecast also increased 1 million tons because of larger-than-expected shipments reported for August. Import forecasts for Egypt and Indonesia increased, as did the level of forecast world corn trade. Global corn trade (excluding intra-EU trade) in 1999/2000 is expected to reach almost 73 million tons, the largest since 1989/90. U.S. corn export prospects for 2000/01 increased 2 million tons this month to 57 million. The increase on the September/October domestic marketing year was even greater, 100 million bushels to 2,275 million, because the strong September 2000 shipments are included. The U.S. export forecast was boosted this month by reduced competition from Argentina and an increase in forecast corn trade. Import forecasts were increased this month for Indonesia, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Malaysia, Japan, and others. World corn trade in 2000/01 is expected to about match the previous years robust pace, but U.S. exports are expected to reach the highest level since October-September 1989/90 because of reduced competition. Although Chinas 2000/01 export forecast was unchanged this month at 4 million tons, it is still down dramatically from 10 million the previous year. This implies reduced competition, especially later in the year after Chinas early-season (old crop) sales have been shipped. ***************************************************************** Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales s(202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released November 14, 2000. ***************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,759 4 11,071 450 2,118 450 3,019 8,052 1.90 Dec-Feb 8,052 --- 6 8,058 434 1,460 465 2,359 5,698 2.04 Mar-May 5,698 --- 7 5,706 495 1,097 497 2,089 3,616 2.04 Jun-Aug 3,616 --- 2 3,618 468 795 568 1,831 1,787 1.80 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,759 19 11,085 1,846 5,471 1,981 9,298 1,787 1.94 1999/00 Sep-Nov 1,787 9,437 4 11,228 459 2,210 534 3,203 8,025 1.71 Dec-Feb 8,025 --- 3 8,028 447 1,511 468 2,426 5,602 1.90 Mar-May 5,602 --- 6 5,607 512 1,059 451 2,022 3,586 2.05 Jun-Aug 3,586 --- 3 3,588 496 895 482 1,873 1,715 1.68 Mkt. yr.1,787 9,437 15 11,239 1,913 5,676 1,935 9,524 1,715 1.80 2000/01 Mkt. yr.1,715 10,192 10 11,917 1,975 5,850 2,275 10,100 1,817 1.65-2.05 SORGHUM 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 178 41 234 335 1.67 Dec-Feb 335 --- 0 335 15 34 64 113 222 1.69 Mar-May 222 --- 0 222 10 45 51 106 116 1.73 Jun-Aug 116 --- 0 116 6 5 41 51 65 1.60 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 262 197 504 65 1.66 1999/00 Sep-Nov 65 595 0 660 18 229 65 312 348 1.45 Dec-Feb 348 --- 0 348 18 28 77 123 226 1.58 Mar-May 226 --- 0 226 13 22 64 99 127 1.83 Jun-Aug 127 --- 0 127 6 11 44 62 65 1.63 Mkt. yr. 65 595 0 660 55 290 250 595 65 1.55 2000/01 Mkt. yr. 65 465 0 531 50 230 200 480 51 1.45-1.85 BARLEY 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 152 326 2.04 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 16 8 63 271 1.99 Dec-Feb 271 --- 6 277 37 32 7 76 201 1.94 Mar-May 201 --- 9 210 51 12 5 68 142 1.90 Mkt. yr. 119 352 30 501 170 161 28 360 142 1.98 1999/00 Jun-Aug 142 280 6 428 44 79 9 132 295 2.18 Sep-Nov 295 --- 5 300 39 22 10 71 229 2.04 Dec-Feb 229 --- 9 239 37 24 7 68 170 2.14 Mar-May 170 --- 7 178 52 10 4 66 111 2.19 Mkt. yr. 142 280 28 450 172 136 30 338 111 2.13 2000/01 Jun-Aug 111 320 8 440 44 94 8 146 294 2.35 Mkt. yr. 111 320 30 462 172 150 35 357 105 2.10-2.40 OATS 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 166 28 268 17 89 0.5 106 162 1.15 Sep-Nov 162 --- 36 198 16 38 0.4 54 143 1.08 Dec-Feb 143 --- 22 166 14 38 0.5 53 113 1.20 Mar-May 113 --- 22 134 22 31 0.3 53 81 1.23 Mkt. yr. 74 166 108 348 69 196 1.7 266 81 1.10 1999/00 Jun-Aug 81 146 22 249 17 84 0.6 101 148 1.05 Sep-Nov 148 --- 34 182 16 30 0.3 46 136 1.08 Dec-Feb 136 --- 23 159 14 42 0.2 56 102 1.22 Mar-May 102 --- 20 123 21 24 0.7 47 76 1.31 Mkt. yr. 81 146 99 326 68 180 1.8 250 76 1.12 2000/01 Jun-Aug 76 150 20 246 17 78 0.6 95 151 1.12 Mkt. yr. 76 150 100 326 68 180 2.0 250 76 1.05-1.25 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1998/99 Sep-Nov 53.8 4.5 0.3 0.6 59.3 -2.0 57.3 Dec-Feb 37.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 39.3 0.3 39.6 Mar-May 27.9 1.2 0.3 0.5 29.8 0.9 30.7 Jun-Aug 20.2 0.1 1.7 1.3 23.3 7.3 30.7 Mkt. yr. 139.0 6.7 3.0 3.0 151.7 6.5 158.2 88.1 1.80 % Change -0.2 -28.2 -11.5 -1.5 -2.1 -25.9 -3.4 0.1 -3.5 1999/00 Sep-Nov 56.1 5.8 0.5 0.5 63.0 -0.2 62.8 Dec-Feb 38.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 40.3 0.8 41.1 Mar-May 26.9 0.6 0.2 0.4 28.1 -0.2 27.8 Jun-Aug 22.7 0.3 2.1 1.2 26.3 9.2 35.5 Mkt. yr. 144.2 7.4 3.3 2.8 157.6 9.6 167.2 89.2 1.88 % Change 3.7 10.6 7.9 -8.0 3.9 47.0 5.7 1.2 4.4 2000/01 Mkt. yr. 148.6 5.8 2.8 2.9 160.2 5.8 166.0 90.3 1.84 % Change 3.1 -20.7 -13.3 4.1 1.6 -39.9 -0.7 1.3 -2.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 98/99 1.97 2.35 3.78 3.97 1.23 2.30 1.34 99/00 3/ 1.86 2.23 3.36 3.79 NQ NQ 1.26 Monthly: 1999: May 2.03 2.35 3.67 3.94 NQ NQ 1.39 Jun 1.99 2.36 3.61 3.86 NQ NQ 1.34 Jul 1.67 2.12 3.40 3.46 NQ NQ 1.25 Aug 1.84 2.20 3.59 3.77 NQ NQ 1.20 2000: May 2.15 2.43 3.49 4.27 NQ NQ NQ Jun 1.83 2.13 3.00 3.60 NQ NQ NQ Jul 1.53 1.91 3.37 3.34 NQ NQ NQ Aug 3/ 1.49 1.91 2.88 3.46 NQ NQ NQ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 98/99 130.56 109.86 59.87 234.76 137.32 84.87 54.74 88.10 99/00 158.15 124.00 52.89 237.31 163.13 82.93 53.13 80.20 Monthly: 1999: May 127.00 108.75 56.90 201.25 129.60 84.00 41.40 91.00 Jun 131.70 114.50 57.90 209.50 137.10 87.00 45.70 82.80 Jul 125.71 115.00 51.75 241.25 133.75 91.67 39.20 83.40 Aug 135.90 100.65 54.30 252.50 139.61 NQ 44.91 84.90 2000: May 180.10 123.25 51.10 240.00 181.33 92.00 49.16 95.00 Jun 170.18 130.63 48.80 223.75 174.64 76.00 49.00 85.70 Jul 156.84 131.88 45.25 218.75 173.45 81.00 42.53 84.50 Aug 3/ 151.38 130.50 43.20 211.00 170.95 NQ 37.72 83.90 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ=No quote. Table 5--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1998/99 Sep-Nov 123.1 56.6 60.8 132.4 31.1 45.9 449.9 Dec-Feb 116.6 48.7 57.6 132.9 32.6 45.4 433.8 Mar-May 140.5 56.2 60.1 138.8 34.1 46.4 476.0 Jun-Aug 150.2 57.7 61.2 121.8 29.4 46.4 466.7 Mkt year 530.5 219.1 239.8 525.8 127.1 184.2 1,826.4 1999/00 Sep-Nov 129.3 56.7 63.6 131.7 31.8 46.0 459.2 Dec-Feb 119.4 49.6 60.0 138.3 33.3 46.0 446.6 Mar-May 141.7 57.1 63.7 147.9 34.9 46.5 491.9 Jun-Aug 149.2 58.4 63.8 147.8 29.7 46.5 495.4 Mkt year 539.5 221.9 251.1 565.8 129.7 185.0 1,893.0 2000/01 Mkt year 550.0 230.0 255.0 600.0 130.2 190.0 1,955.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 98/99 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 12.28 99/00 2/ 15.05 10.91 16.38 9.18 12.39 Monthly 1999: Jun 15.20 11.10 16.38 8.45 12.82 Jul 14.72 10.62 16.38 8.45 12.73 Aug 15.12 11.27 16.38 8.45 11.74 Sep 15.28 11.18 16.38 8.45 12.01 2000: Jun 15.29 10.25 16.38 9.25 13.36 Jul 14.72 11.07 16.38 9.25 12.76 Aug 14.62 10.52 16.38 9.25 12.04 Sep 2/ 14.91 10.81 16.38 9.25 11.71 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. June-July Mkt. yr. June-July June-July ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,142 61 1,287 125 132 Finland 216 54 125 24 0 Sweden 443 133 276 79 59 Total 1/ 1,856 248 1,703 227 191 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 567 93 543 84 105 Total 1/ 567 93 543 84 105 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 81 47 60 3 18 Total 1/ 81 47 60 3 18 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Sept.-July Mkt. yr. Sept.-July Sept.-July ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 14,581 13,550 15,110 13,821 13,881 S. Korea 3,593 3,195 6,462 5,851 2,759 Mexico 4,116 3,695 5,387 5,038 4,326 Taiwan 3,801 3,379 4,365 3,987 4,760 Egypt 1,808 1,544 3,159 3,248 3,172 Colombia 1,175 1,043 1,512 1,374 1,718 Venezuela 655 572 1,288 1,176 976 Saudi Arabia 971 916 1,182 1,087 1,037 Algeria 861 788 955 848 916 Canada 1,423 1,346 867 708 822 Dominican Republic 644 601 777 701 904 Turkey 379 379 692 672 856 Peru 253 231 674 599 453 Morocco 350 281 592 498 554 Chile 147 147 486 406 517 Former USSR 23 23 405 318 486 China 212 158 259 259 58 South Africa 0 0 143 143 309 Other Sub-Saharan 336 324 298 270 200 EU 147 31 192 192 125 East Europe 19 19 12 12 35 Others 2,623 2,413 5,409 4,341 5,465 Total 38,117 34,633 50,228 45,549 44,327 SORGHUM Mexico 3,222 3,074 3,103 2,831 4,377 Japan 1,650 1,618 1,362 1,272 1,062 Others 463 444 433 433 375 Total 5,334 5,136 4,899 4,536 5,814 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. June-July Mkt. yr. June-July June-July BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 0 40 Israel 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 0 0 50 0 0 Japan 443 52 391 85 23 Mexico 94 17 104 18 6 Taiwan 0 0 5 0 0 Other 79 5 107 6 25 Total 615 74 657 109 94 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE