FEED OUTLOOK June 13, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS-0695. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Planting Problems Lead To Cut in Projected 1995 Corn Crop o Tight Supplies Expected To Boost Prices o Projected 1995/96 Corn Domestic Use and Exports Reduced o Corn Export Forecast Raised Again For 1994/95 CORN PRODUCTION PROJECTED AT 7.9 BILLION BUSHELS IN 1995 Reduced plantings and lower yield prospects have led to a reduction of 700 million bushels in projected U.S. corn production this month to 7.9 billion bushels. Very wet weather has delayed planting in many parts of the Corn Belt this spring. The forecast of planted acreage has been reduced by 2 million acres, along with a small drop in the share of this area harvested for grain. Projected 1995 yields have been dropped about 6 bushels to 119.7 bushels per acre. As of June 4, only 80 percent of the intended acreage was planted in the 17 major growing states, compared with an average of 92 percent in the previous 5 years and 98 percent in 1994. This unplanted portion represents nearly 14 million acres out of the 75.3 million reported in the March Prospective Plantings. Wet conditions will likely prevent some farmers from planting corn. This land is likely to be idled under the 0/92 provisions or planted to soybeans or other crops with a shorter growing season than corn. USDA will release its survey-based acreage estimate on June 30. The survey is conducted during the first 2 weeks of June. Because of delays in planting, average yields are also expected to be reduced. In some cases, growers will switch to shorter season varieties that have lower yield potential. In general, later plantings increase the risk of heat stress at pollination, along with the risk of early frosts. Weather over the rest of the growing season will be the most critical factor in determining actual yields. With many plantings delayed beyond usual completion dates, there will be a wide range in the stages of crop development this season. This will increase the potential variability in outcomes for the crop. CORN STOCKS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 800 MILLION BUSHELS Ending stocks in 1995/96 are expected to drop to 748 million bushels, the lowest since 1975/76. Carryin stocks for 1995/96 were reduced because of an increase of 50 million bushels in forecast exports for 1994/95. Tighter supplies and higher expected prices for 1995/96 caused prospective use to decline but not as much as in production, resulting in a drop in ending stocks. Projected corn disappearance in 1995/96 has been lowered this month from 9.2 billion bushels to 8.7 billion, with both feed and residual use and exports likely to decline from 1994/95. Food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is projected down slightly from last month, but still up from a year ago. The ratio of stocks to use is projected at 8.6 percent, considerably lower than 1993/94's 11.2 percent, and the lowest since 1975/76. The likelihood of a sharp drop in corn production in 1995 from last year's record presents some similarities with 1993, when output declined steeply from a record in the previous year. However, two major differences stand out: Carryin stocks were larger in 1993/94 and the demand base was considerably smaller. Feed users faced larger supplies of other feed grains at that time than are currently forecast for 1995/96. In addition, there were abundant supplies of feed wheat from Canada, and U.S. animal inventories were lower. Importers benefited from record exports of corn from foreign suppliers in 1993/94, particularly from China, along with feed wheat as a substitute for U.S. corn. Foreign exportable supplies of both corn and feed wheat are forecast to be much lower in 1995/96, keeping prospective demand for U.S. corn much higher than in 1993/94. In addition, U.S. industrial use of corn has continued to increase, and FSI use is projected to be nearly 200 million bushels higher than 1993/94. PRICE EXPECTATIONS RISING Season average farm prices for corn are projected to rise to $2.45-2.85 per bushel, compared to $2.20-2.30 in 1994/95. This compares with $2.50 in 1993/94, and $2.54 reached in 1988/89 when there was a severe drought. In the early 1980's, season average prices surpassed $3.00 in 2 years, but these comparisons are less relevant because of the much higher loan rates and lower proportion of free stocks in that period. Futures prices for corn have reflected the difficult planting season. The December contract on the Chicago Board of Trade settled above $2.80 per bushel one day in late May before slipping, and then fluctuated around $2.80 again last week (June 5-9). Projected season average prices for the other feed grains were also raised this month, reflecting the higher projected prices for corn. Fifteen cents was added to each end of the range for the sorghum farm price to $2.30-2.70 per bushel, up from $2.00-2.10 in 1994/95. Ten cents was added to the range for both barley and oats. The projected price for all barley is now $2.20-2.60 per bushel, up from $2.01 estimated in 1994/95. The projected price for oats was increased to $1.35-1.75, up from $1.21 estimated for 1994/95. TIGHTER SUPPLIES WILL DAMPEN FEED AND RESIDUAL USE IN 1995/96 Feed and residual use of the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley, and oats) will likely decline 10 percent in 1995/96 to 145 million metric tons. In 1994/95, feed and residual use is expected to total 161 million tons, up from 140 million in 1993/94. Adding the feed and residual use projected for wheat in September-August would result in a total of 152 million tons of all grains fed in 1995/96, down 9 percent from the expected 167 million tons to be fed in 1994/95. The buildup in animal numbers responding to strong domestic and foreign demand is expected to increase grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) in 1995/96 2 percent from the 84.9 million units in 1994/95. In 1995/96, feed and residual per GCAU could average 1.76 tons, down from 1.97 tons in 1994/95, and below the 1.78 tons in 1993/94. However, higher farm prices for corn and other feed grains could cause higher-cost producers to cut livestock inventories. FSI USE PROJECTED UP DESPITE HIGHER PRICES Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use in 1994/95 is expected to total 1,700 million bushels of corn, up from 1,588 million in 1993/94. In 1995/96, FSI is expected to total 1775 million bushels, up 4 percent from 1994/95. Corn used for ethanol production may not expand as rapidly as earlier expected because of the sharp increase in the farm price of corn. Higher input prices could cause some higher-cost producers to slow production of ethanol and may cause some postponement of building plans for new plants. Ethanol producers should see some increase in prices received for byproduct feeds, because soybean meal prices are expected to increase 10 percent from 1994/95. Ethanol prices have remained steady even though current gasoline prices have been strong, along with MTBE prices. As MTBE remains the summertime oxygenate of choice for reformulated gasoline (RFG), ethanol will be used in winter RFG and the oxygenated fuels program as an octane enhancer, and in areas that can get low Reid vapor pressure gasoline to make reformulated gasoline. With the State incentives to use ethanol in Illinois, blenders have been trying to get low volatility gasoline so that with ethanol added, it still meets the Reid vapor pressure requirements for RFG. Low volatility gasoline for ethanol blending has been in short supply, but enough has been available to keep ethanol in the Chicago and Milwaukee RFG markets. Some States are considering oxygenate requirements even though the air quality may not require oxygenated gasoline. These requirements would help boost demand for ethanol. Still, abundant supplies will likely keep ethanol prices weak during the remainder of 1994/95 and in 1995/96. FLOODING HAS ONLY MODERATE IMPACT ON GRAIN TRANSPORTATION This year's flooding has not been as severe as the 1993 flood. As a result, the impacts on grain transportation have not been as great. Although longer term impacts are expected, no major transportation hindrance to grain exports are in view. For May 1995, the flood gauge at St. Louis, MO averaged 5 feet above flood stage and normal conditions are expected to return by mid-June. During 1993, the St. Louis gauge averaged 1-14 feet above flood stage from April through September. Flood conditions hampered or precluded barge traffic on the Mississippi, Illinois, and Missouri river during May 1995. Immediate impacts on grain traffic appear to have been modest. May shipments on the Mississippi and Illinois waterways were 3.1 million short tons, 14 percent below April and 20 percent below the 10-year average. May is usually the peak month for grain shipments on the waterways. The decline from April was nearly equally divided between the Illinois and Mississippi waterways. In 1993, flooding did not interrupt navigation until late June. Flooded rail lines played a role in reducing rail deliveries of grain to Mississippi River ports to 1,076 cars per week in May. This was down 29 percent from April, but it was 38 percent greater than flood-troubled May 1993. Rail shipments of grain in May fell 1,843 cars per week from the prior month. Still, May is usually the slowest month for railed grain. The 26,970 cars per week during May 1995 were 14 percent above the 10-year average and 6 percent above May 1993. The river journey from St. Louis to New Orleans usually requires more than a week to accomplish. Trips from points upstream from St. Louis require still more time and return voyages require like travel times. The barging industry has demonstrated the ability to move more than 5.3 million short tons of grain in a single month. In comparison, demand for barged grain has not exceeded 3.6 million short tons during the 1994/95 marketing year. Export demand at the Mississippi River ports is expected to be met. At the same time, the relatively long round trip travel times from shipping points upstream from St. Louis will disadvantage shippers at such points. OUTLOOK SLIPS FOR 1995/96 U.S. CORN EXPORTS Lower production prospects in the U.S. are projected to drop corn exports to 1.875 billion bushels (48 million metric tons) in 1995/96, 3 million tons below last month's forecast and down 4.5 million tons from the forecast for 1994/95. Higher world corn prices are likely to induce a marginal increase in competitor exports, but will mainly rachet down import demand in many countries. Exports from Argentina are likely to expand 1 million tons to 6.0 million in 1995/96. A favorable corn-soybean price ratio is projected to lead to an expansion in corn area and production, with sowing expected to begin in October. China is expected to stay more or less on the sidelines of the international export market in 1995/96 despite projected higher corn prices, with export projections of 2 million tons unchanged from last month. Projected imports by China are down 500,000 tons from last month's 2 million tons. The outlook for China, however, is very uncertain, and highly dependent on internal corn market developments and policy decisions. Corn imports by South Korea in 1995/96 are projected to decline 500,000 tons from the revised 1994/95 import estimate of 8.75 million tons. High corn prices are expected to encourage substitution of corn with other grains, such as rye or barley, and with nongrain feed ingredients. Prospects for feed wheat purchases are limited because of low, global exportable supplies. Corn imports by Middle Eastern and North African countries are expected to show a year-to-year decline, with lower imports forecast for Iran, Israel, and Jordan. OUT-YEAR BARLEY IMPORTS TO CLIMB WHILE EXPORTS SAG High U.S. feed prices in 1995/96 are projected to stimulate barley imports, mainly from Canada, with the import forecast revised up 10 million bushels to 70 million. Meanwhile, U.S. exports are projected to dip to 50 million bushels. The 1994/95 U.S. oats import estimate was revised down 5 million bushels to 100 million bushels based on the slow pace of imports to date (see table 9, which includes barley for the first time). Meanwhile, 1995/96 U.S. oats imports are still projected at 100 million bushels. U.S. CORN EXPORTS SURGE IN 1994/95 Higher price prospects for next year are underpinning a very strong U.S. export pace to date, raising the 1994/95 corn export forecast to 2.075 billion bushels (52.5 million tons). This is up 50 million bushels from last month and up a hefty 750 million bushels (20 million tons) from last year. Robust demand from South Korea is expected to boost imports to 8.75 million tons, mainly of U.S. origin, as limited availability and high prices of other feed grains limit purchases. Forecast 1994/95 imports by China are up 500,000 tons this month to 3.5 million. Forecasts for aggregate competitor exports continue to erode as an increase in corn exports from Argentina to 5 million tons was overshadowed by an expected drop in exports from China to 1.5 million tons based on slow exports to date. This is a 500,000-ton drop from last month and a nearly 11-million-ton drop from last year. China's domestic corn prices continue to remain high. ****************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: * * * * Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 T.Q. Hutchinson (202) 219-0353 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0839 Nancy Morgan (202) 501-8511 * * * * The next Feed Outlook will be released July 13, 1995. * * * ****************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN -------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1992/93 Sep-Nov 1,100 9,477 1 10,578 360 1,825 488 2,672 7,906 2.04 Dec-Feb 7,906 --- 1 7,907 350 1,416 463 2,229 5,678 2.00 Mar-May 5,678 --- 2 5,680 403 1,157 411 1,971 3,709 2.13 Jun-Aug 3,709 --- 3 3,712 399 899 301 1,599 2,113 2.19 Mkt. yr. 1,100 9,477 7 10,584 1,511 5,296 1,663 8,471 2,113 2.07 1993/94 Sep-Nov 2,113 6,336 5 8,455 378 1,705 435 2,518 5,937 2.34 Dec-Feb 5,937 --- 8 5,945 371 1,248 330 1,949 3,996 2.71 Mar-May 3,996 --- 6 4,002 419 954 270 1,642 2,360 2.67 Jun-Aug 2,360 --- 1 2,361 420 798 293 1,511 850 2.35 Mkt. yr. 2,113 6,336 21 8,470 1,588 4,704 1,328 7,620 850 2.50 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 410 2,016 449 2,875 8,080 2.07 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 402 1,500 590 2,493 5,591 2.18 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 10 10,963 1,700 5,650 2,075 9,425 1,538 2.20-2.30 1995/96 Mkt. yr. 1,538 7,900 10 9,448 1,775 5,050 1,875 8,700 748 2.45-2.85 SORGHUM 1992/93 Sep-Nov 53 875 0 928 2 266 56 324 604 1.85 Dec-Feb 604 --- 0 604 1 67 101 170 434 1.86 Mar-May 434 --- 0 434 3 80 87 170 265 1.89 Jun-Aug 265 --- 0 265 2 56 32 90 175 2.07 Mkt. yr. 53 875 0 928 8 469 277 753 175 1.89 1993/94 Sep-Nov 175 534 0 709 2 222 39 263 446 2.22 Dec-Feb 446 --- 0 446 2 108 60 170 276 2.59 Mar-May 276 --- 0 276 3 82 64 148 128 2.39 Jun-Aug 128 --- 0 128 2 41 38 81 48 2.10 Mkt. yr. 175 534 0 709 8 453 202 662 48 2.31 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 655 0 703 2 214 64 280 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 79 61 141 282 2.02 Mkt. yr. 48 655 0 703 7 400 220 627 76 2.00-2.10 1995/96 Mkt. yr. 76 555 0 631 7 375 200 582 49 2.30-2.70 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY -----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1992/93 Jun-Aug 129 455 7 590 43 110 18 172 418 2.16 Sep-Nov 418 --- 2 420 37 14 22 73 347 1.92 Dec-Feb 347 --- 1 348 37 45 22 104 244 2.01 Mar-May 244 --- 2 246 54 23 18 95 151 2.02 Mkt. yr. 129 455 11 595 171 192 80 444 151 2.04 1993/94 Jun-Aug 151 398 3 552 43 92 15 150 403 1.91 Sep-Nov 403 --- 11 413 38 27 15 80 333 2.02 Dec-Feb 333 --- 24 357 38 83 12 133 224 2.10 Mar-May 224 --- 34 258 56 40 24 119 139 2.16 Mkt. yr. 151 398 71 621 175 241 66 482 139 1.99 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 43 122 20 186 352 1.99 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 38 30 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 100 192 1.98 Mkt. yr. 139 375 65 579 175 225 70 470 109 2.01 1995/96 Mkt. yr. 109 380 70 559 175 230 50 455 104 2.20-2.60 OATS 1992/93 Jun-Aug 128 294 15 437 31 111 1.0 142 295 1.29 Sep-Nov 295 --- 12 307 29 33 2.1 64 242 1.30 Dec-Feb 242 --- 11 253 27 50 1.4 78 175 1.40 Mar-May 175 --- 17 192 39 39 1.3 79 113 1.46 Mkt. yr. 128 294 55 477 125 233 5.7 364 113 1.32 1993/94 Jun-Aug 113 207 17 337 32 84 1.5 118 219 1.35 Sep-Nov 219 --- 35 254 30 30 0.7 60 194 1.33 Dec-Feb 194 --- 31 225 27 51 0.5 79 147 1.42 Mar-May 147 --- 24 170 36 28 0.2 65 106 1.39 Mkt. yr. 113 207 107 427 125 193 3.0 321 106 1.36 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 230 20 356 32 104 0.2 136 220 1.20 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 30 32 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 28 38 0.4 66 149 1.19 Mkt. yr. 106 230 100 435 125 205 1.0 331 104 1.21 1994/95 Mkt. yr. 104 200 100 404 125 175 1 301 103 1.35-1.75 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------Million ---------------------- Mil. Tons 1992/93 Sep-Nov 46.3 6.8 0.3 0.5 53.9 -2.2 51.7 Dec-Feb 36.0 1.7 1.0 0.7 39.4 0.1 39.5 Mar-May 29.4 2.0 0.5 0.6 32.5 -2.0 30.4 Jun-Aug 22.8 1.4 2.0 1.2 27.5 8.1 35.5 Mkt. yr. 134.5 11.9 3.8 3.0 153.2 3.9 157.1 82.7 1.90 % Change 8.6 25.3 -23.4 -7.9 8.2 -37.9 6.3 2.5 3.66 1993/94 Sep-Nov 43.3 5.6 0.6 0.4 50.0 -1.0 48.9 Dec-Feb 31.7 2.7 1.8 0.7 37.0 1.1 38.0 Mar-May 24.2 2.1 0.9 0.4 27.6 -0.7 26.9 Jun-Aug 20.3 1.0 2.7 1.5 25.5 10.2 35.7 Mkt. yr. 119.5 11.5 5.9 3.1 140.0 9.6 149.5 84.0 1.78 % Change -11.2 -3.4 56.4 3.0 -8.6 144.9 -4.8 1.6 -6.3 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.4 0.7 0.5 57.8 -0.8 57.0 Dec-Feb 38.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mkt. yr. 143.5 10.2 4.20 2.8 160.7 6.8 167.4 84.9 1.97 % Change 20.1 -11.6 -29.0 -10.1 14.8 -29.2 12.0 1.1 10.8 1995/96 Mkt. yr. 128.3 9.5 5.0 2.5 145.3 6.8 152.2 86.6 1.76 % Change -10.6 -6.2 19.3 -8.5 -9.5 0.4 -9.1 2.1 -11.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1992/93 ---------1993/94---------- ----1994/95---- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sep-Apr April Sep-Apr April ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Barge shipments 1/ 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.7 3.6 (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 108.9 93.6 97.3 86.6 158.7 127.7 (Dec 1984 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 28.0 25.5 26.3 23.6 28.7 27.8 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 113.8 115.2 115.5 115.1 116.8 117.7 (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Yel, Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf Texas Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports high pl. ports Minn. Minn. 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 1992/93 2.12 2.46 4.02 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 1993/94 2.55 2.85 4.95 4.91 2.05 2.48 1.55 Monthly 1993/94 Jan 2.89 3.22 5.53 5.52 2.15 2.55 1.57 Feb 2.83 3.14 5.35 5.41 2.16 2.63 1.52 Mar 2.76 3.05 5.12 5.22 2.07 2.65 1.55 Apr 2.61 2.88 4.80 4.89 2.08 2.73 1.46 1994/95 Jan 2.22 2.72 4.44 4.63 2.02 2.81 1.46 Feb 2.27 2.72 4.48 4.63 2.06 2.82 1.42 Mar 2.36 2.79 4.63 4.67 2.02 2.85 1.54 Apr 2.41 2.79 4.68 4.70 1.97 NQ 1.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Reporting point changed from Texas High Plains to South Panhandle starting January 1991. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Kansas Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. City burg, IN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------- ------------------------$/ton-------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 1992/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 1993/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 Monthly 1993/94 Jan 185.90 170.30 92.40 309.40 215.30 130.00 104.10 90.50 Feb 184.40 173.10 87.60 296.25 209.70 130.00 101.90 93.20 Mar 182.00 174.00 88.60 288.50 204.70 127.00 83.90 95.60 Apr 176.40 166.25 89.90 278.10 198.10 122.00 75.60 95.20 1994/95 Jan 145.10 106.75 82.20 230.50 176.25 105.60 60.00 92.10 Feb 149.40 97.50 81.00 221.25 181.00 97.00 62.50 94.20 Mar 145.70 100.30 82.10 215.60 180.75 93.75 73.90 94.20 Apr 151.00 98.10 77.40 206.25 160.60 93.50 55.75 95.20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose Cereals and ---Alcohol--- & other Year HFCS dextrose Starch Fuel Beverage products Total --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1992/93 Sep-Nov 92.33 54.45 58.83 104.36 20.70 29.17 359.84 Dec-Feb 88.36 47.21 57.70 107.47 20.50 28.85 350.09 Mar-May 110.36 55.06 59.34 110.91 21.15 29.64 386.46 Jun-Aug 122.99 57.74 62.16 102.77 20.95 29.64 396.25 Mkt year 414.04 214.47 238.03 425.51 83.30 117.30 1492.65 1993/94 Sep-Nov 98.23 55.79 61.71 112.23 20.69 29.42 378.08 Dec-Feb 95.00 49.58 57.60 119.33 20.47 29.10 371.07 Mar-May 117.68 56.79 61.57 112.44 20.92 29.74 399.15 Jun-Aug 131.28 60.89 62.66 114.26 20.92 29.74 419.74 Mkt year 442.18 223.05 243.54 458.26 83.00 118.00 1,568.04 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.16 58.79 62.63 134.45 20.69 29.42 410.13 Dec-Feb 99.91 51.52 60.12 141.50 20.47 29.10 402.61 Mkt year 465.00 230.00 250.00 535.00 83.00 118.00 1,681.00 1995/96 Mkt year 480.00 235.00 255.00 583.00 84.00 118.00 1,755.00 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, starch, New York Chicago Midwest Midwest fob Midwest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1991/92 13.51 9.90 24.50 15.23 11.03 1992/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 1993/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 Monthly 1994 Feb 15.12 11.37 26.00 13.23 13.61 Mar 14.92 11.17 26.00 14.28 13.61 Apr 14.77 11.06 26.00 15.85 13.31 May 14.65 11.00 26.00 15.85 12.95 1995 Feb 13.04 10.49 25.50 11.80 12.20 Mar 13.13 10.58 25.50 11.80 12.32 Apr 13.17 10.62 25.50 11.80 12.65 May 1/ 13.22 10.67 25.50 11.80 12.89 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Preliminary. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1992/93------ ------1993/94------ 1994/95 Mkt. yr. Sep-March Mkt. yr. Sep-March Sep-March ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 14,138 8,354 12,214 8,105 8,939 Taiwan 5,333 3,339 5,077 3,692 3,445 Former USSR 4,721 2,533 2,909 2,821 55 South Africa 2,354 2,311 12 12 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 3,955 3,855 394 82 316 EU 1,378 937 1,765 1,064 1,445 Egypt 1,397 678 1,553 939 1,504 Canada 1,247 927 603 207 488 China 1,103 0 0 0 1,098 East Europe 0 661 48 48 0 Algeria 1,076 552 1,176 791 839 S. Korea 991 836 508 141 4,572 Mexico 506 400 1,468 289 2,058 Others 3,951 2,137 9,463 3,997 6,560 Total 1/ 42,150 27,520 37,191 22,187 31,318 SORGHUM Mexico 4,147 2,680 2,942 1,549 1,518 Japan 1,922 1,463 1,640 1,264 1,435 Others 809 605 432 329 653 Total 1/ 6,878 4,748 5,014 3,142 3,606 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1992/93------ ------1993/94------ 1994/95 Mkt. yr. Jun-March Mkt. yr. Jun-March Jun-March BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 579 514 344 5 135 Israel 263 189 335 266 427 Jordan 195 195 205 251 51 Others 711 315 550 447 598 Total 1/ 1,748 1,213 1,433 969 1,211 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1992/93------ ------1993/94------ 1994/95 Mkt. yr. Jun-March Mkt. yr. Jun-March Jun-March ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 625 480 1,011 824 973 Finland 119 23 526 440 374 Sweden 116 116 303 268 70 Other 87 65 0 0 0 Total 1/ 947 684 1,840 1,531 1,417 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 150 130 453 312 551 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 151 131 453 312 551 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 97 84 1,069 678 633 Other 0 0 5 0 16 Total 1/ 97 84 1,075 679 649 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, includes seed barley starting January 1994. Source: Bureau of the Census END-END-END