HDR1011800200801113951500 FEED OUTLOOK (revised) November 14, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS--1195. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Forecast 1995 Corn Production Lowered to 7.374 Billion Bushels o Sorghum Production Reduced Another 6 Percent o Corn Export Forecast Raised, Domestic Use Trimmed o Projected Corn Price Highest since 1983/84 FEED GRAIN SUPPLIES CONTINUE TO SHRINK Feed grain supplies in 1995/96 are forecast at 258 million metric tons, down 5 million from last month, after further cuts in crop production. Compared to 1994/95, supplies will be down 58 million tons. Feed grain production in 1995 is forecast at 209 million tons. No crop forecasts will be made in December, and final production estimates will be released January 10. Even with reductions in prospective feed grain use, projected ending stocks were lowered another 8 percent this month to 20 million tons. This would be 7 million tons below ending stocks in 1993/94, when flood damage slashed production, and the lowest since the mid-1970's. CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST REDUCED 168 MILLION BUSHELS Forecast corn production was reduced 2 percent from October to 7.374 billion bushels, despite a slight upward adjustment in area. Forecast yields were reduced 2.9 bushels to 113.7 bushels per acre. Planted acreage was revised to 71.4 million acres, up 100,000 acres from the previous estimate, while acres harvested for grain were raised 150,000 to 64.8 million. Production forecasts were reduced this month in many States, led by Illinois, Kansas, and Nebraska, because of lower yield prospects. The drop in yields was particularly sharp in Kansas, where expected yields were cut 15 bushels per acre, probably reflecting damage from early frost. In Nebraska and some other areas, high winds led to reports of lodging and ear droppage. Declines in forecast production in Iowa and North Carolina were entirely due to lower acreage, as expected yields were unchanged. With generally favorable conditions, farmers made rapid progress harvesting corn in October. As of November 5, 87 percent of the crop was harvested in the 17 major producing States, compared to the average of 74 percent. For the 10 States where USDA conducts objective yield surveys, plant populations were indicated at a record high, while the number of ears per acre would be the third highest on record. Ear weights, however, were low, exceeding only the drought years of 1983 and 1988 and the flood year of 1993. DESPITE CUTS IN USE, PROJECTED CORN STOCKS LOWERED AGAIN This year is shaping up as one of the tightest ever for U.S. feed grains. With importer buying continuing at a breakneck pace, limited corn supplies and higher prices are expected to have a larger impact on domestic users despite strong potential demand. Domestic corn use was trimmed 150 million bushels, while exports were raised 50 million. Ending stocks of corn in 1995/96 are now projected at 617 million bushels, down from 685 a month ago. This would be the lowest ever for the September-August marketing year and the lowest since 1974/75, when the marketing year began October 1. Total use of corn is projected at 8.3 billion bushels in 1995/96, about 50 percent higher than use in the mid-1970's, resulting in a record-low ratio of stocks to use of 7.4 percent. SORGHUM PRODUCTION WILL BE LOWEST SINCE 1956 Sorghum production in 1995 is forecast at 464 million bushels, down 28 million from last month. This is well below the 488-million-bushel crop in the 1983 drought year and the lowest since 205 million in 1956. Yields were reduced 2.8 bushels per acre this month to 56.4 bushels. Planted acreage was revised slightly upward to 9.2 million acres, while acres harvested for grain were revised down 85,000 to 8.2 million. Yield prospects were down this month in each State for which sorghum forecasts were made except for Louisiana, New Mexico, and Texas. Production in Texas actually rose 6 million bushels because of higher indicated acreage. The largest production declines were in Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri. Like corn, the sorghum harvest advanced quickly in October. By November 5, 91 percent of the harvest was complete in the 12 major producing States, compared to the average of 83 percent. PRICE EXPECTATIONS CONTINUE TO CLIMB The 1995/96 season average farm price for corn is projected at $2.95 to $3.35 per bushel, up 20 cents at both ends of the range. If realized, this would rank near the two highest prices ever: $3.12 in 1980/81 and $3.21 in 1983/84. Market prices for corn have continued to rise throughout the harvest period this year in contrast to the normal pattern of prices dropping as the harvest progresses. The preliminary farm price for October was $2.95 per bushel, the highest monthly average since August 1984. Cash prices at Central Illinois points averaged $3.12 in October, also the highest since August 1984. Soybean prices have also been rising in recent weeks, but not as much as corn. The ratio of soybean to corn prices for 1995/96, based on the midpoint of projected season average farm prices, would be 2.16 to 1, the lowest since 1975/76. The sorghum price is projected at $2.85 to $3.25 per bushel, up 25 cents on each end. This would threaten the record high of $2.91 reached in 1980/81. Sorghum prices have also been very strong in recent weeks, reflecting extremely tight supplies. The preliminary October farm price of $2.90 was the highest for any month since September 1983. The all barley price in 1995/96 is forecast at $2.60 to $2.90 per bushel, up 20 cents on both ends of the range. Both feed barley and malting barley prices have been very high. The preliminary price of $3.08 in October for malting barley was the highest since the 1988/89 drought year. The preliminary feed barley price for October of $2.64 per bushel was the highest since June 1981. Forecast oats prices were increased 10 cents on the lower end to $1.55 to $1.65 per bushel. Because more of the oats crop is usually sold by this time, the season average price for oats has less scope to rise as much as prices for the other feed grains. FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL USE TRIMMED 25 MILLION BUSHELS Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) uses of corn in 1995/96 are expected be near the 1.7 billion bushels used in 1994/95. In 1995/96, FSI uses could account for 19 percent of the corn supply, up from 15 percent in 1994/95 when supplies were much larger. Corn sweeteners and seed use in 1995/96 are expected to increase from last year. Some of the corn FSI uses are not as price sensitive as feeding or exports, but other uses may decline with a short crop. Ethanol production, which competes with MTBE is expected to decline slightly from last year. Low seasonal prices last summer and prospects for continued limited returns have caused four ethanol plants to suspend operations or close. Some will reopen when grain is lower priced. While most ethanol plants are likely to operate during the winter oxygenate season, strong corn prices may cause more plants to suspend operations in the spring when demand declines seasonally. Corn used in starch production in 1995/96 could decline 1 percent from the 246 million bushels used in 1994/95. As producers pass along the higher corn costs, buyers may find alternative products less expensive. This was the case in 1988/89 when corn used for starch production declined 3 million bushels from a year earlier to 223 million bushels. In 1995/96, corn used for beverage and manufacturing alcohol may decline 2 percent from the year earlier. Tight supplies of corn could shift neutral spirit production to other sources of inputs, either other grain or grain products or non-grain inputs. Alcohol used in manufacturing could become more dependent upon non-grain sources. FORECAST FEED AND RESIDUAL USE CUT Forecast feed and residual use of corn in 1995/96 was reduced 125 million bushels this month to 4,575 million. This would be below 1993/94 and the lowest since 1989/90. The forecast for sorghum use was reduced 20 million bushels to 315 million. Feed and residual use of the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley and oats) plus wheat in September-August 1995/96 is expected to total 137.6 million metric tons, down 17 percent from 1994/95. In past years when the corn crop was hurt by floods or drought, the other feed grains helped pick up the slack. However, sorghum, barley, and oats feed and residual use is likely to be down from 1994/95. In 1993/94, wheat feeding increased to help offset a small portion of the decline, but in 1995/96, strong prices for wheat are expected to limit wheat feeding. There is little evidence through the end of October that animal numbers have adjusted to the expected declines in feed availability and sharply higher prices. In general, livestock feeders are still maintaining profits because of higher meat prices. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU's) in 1995/96 is expected to be 2 percent higher than the 84.6 million units in 1994/95. The gain in the index is largely from higher poultry and pig crop numbers. The tons of feed and residual per animal unit have ranged from a low of 1.6 tons in 1988/89 to a high of 2.08 tons in 1986/87. In the last 5 years, feed and residual per GCAU has averaged 1.87 tons. If the GCAU's in 1995/96 turn out as forecast and the feed and residual use is 137.6 million tons, the feed and residual per GCAU would be 1.59, a new low. U.S. CORN EXPORTS CONTINUE TO EXPAND The U.S. corn export forecast for 1995/96 (September-August) was raised 50 million bushels to 2,050 million (52 million tons). The continued strong sales pace through October supported the increase. During October, U.S. corn export sales and commitments rose by over 7 million tons, with South Korea accounting for more than 2 million tons of the increase. According to USDA's U.S. Export Sales report, sales and commitments in the first 2 months of the marketing year have already reached the equivalent of 55 percent of the 1995/96 export forecast. Continued strong purchases by East Asian countries also contributed to the increase in projected world corn trade to 63.52 million tons, up 400,000 tons from the October forecast. In addition, China's exports are forecast down 500,000 tons from October to 1 million tons. The central government still appears opposed to allowing exports, despite provincial requests for export business to resume. While the U.S. corn export projection was raised despite the fall in forecast production, the further drop in sorghum production led to a 10-million-bushel decline in the sorghum export forecast. Other U.S. feed grain export forecasts remained unchanged. TRANSPORTATION: SMALLER GRAIN USE TO LOWER RAIL AND BARGE SHIPMENTS Exports and domestic consumption of total grains and soybeans during 1995/96 are projected at 372.5 million metric tons, 37.2 million below 1994/95. Most of the decrease stems from a projected drop in corn use of 27 million metric tons. As a result, demand for rail and barge service is expected to fall during 1995/96. Projected declines in wheat and soybeans disappearance, totaling 4.6 million metric tons, will further depress demand for transportation service. Grain shipments by rail rose slightly in September to 31,171 cars per week, up 1 percent from August and 19 percent above the 10-year average for the month. October grain loadings declined to 29,757 cars per week, near the 10 year average for the month. In September, grain shipments on the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers fell 22 percent from August to 3.9 million short tons. Still, this is 26 percent above the 10-year average for the month and 95 percent above September 1994. Preliminary data for October indicate that Mississippi River traffic fell about 40 percent from September, but was 33 percent above October 1994. Reduced corn shipments, down 12 percent, are the chief reason for the reduction from September. BARGE RATES UP DRAMATICALLY The Bureau of Labor Statistics' index of barge rates for grain on the Mississippi River rose to 223.8 (December 1990=100) in August, up 32 percent from the prior month and a record high for the 1990's. In September, rates were up fractionally to 222.7. Preliminary indications are that barge rates remained nearly level in October. In the last week of September, barge lines were offering spot service for 235 to 255 percent of tariff. At the end of October, the same service was offered at 230 to 255 percent of tariff. Offers of service to be supplied in December-January were as low as 200 percent of tariff. At this time it appears that reduced export volume will cause barge rates to slip from the record highs of 1994/95. RAIL RATES UP IN SEPTEMBER, BUT EXPECTED TO RISE FURTHER Although rail shipments of grain during 1994/95 averaged 12 percent above the prior year, rail rates for grain increased about 1 percent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Freight Rate Index for Grain averaged 116.9 during 1994/95. Preliminary data show the index at 114.9 for August and 115.6 for September 1995. Contract rates cover much of the grain moved by rail. These contracts restrain rate increases during the life of the contract and often offer discounts in return for increased volume. High use of rail in 1994/95, 28,511 cars per week, may encourage railroads to negotiate higher rates for long term shipping contracts that will apply during 1995/96. EXTENDED SHIPPING SEASON IN PROSPECT FOR MISSOURI RIVER The flood gauge at Sioux City, IA, averaged 23.1 feet in October, 34 percent above October 1994. Water levels were also up at Kansas City, MO, averaging 16.4 feet, 34 percent above October 1994. Good availability of water has allowed the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to offer an extended navigation season on the Missouri River. The Missouri is expected to close on December 2 at Sioux City and December 11 at St. Louis, 10 days beyond the normal closing dates. The Corps has announced that a normal navigation season is expected for 1996. In a normal year, the Missouri opens in late March and closes in late November. ****************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: * * * * Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 T.Q. Hutchinson (202) 219-0391 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 Sara Schwartz (202) 219-0768 * * * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 * * * * The next Feed Outlook will be released December 13, 1995. * * * ****************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN -------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Sep-Nov 2,113 6,336 5 8,455 378 1,705 435 2,518 5,937 2.34 Dec-Feb 5,937 --- 8 5,945 371 1,248 330 1,949 3,996 2.71 Mar-May 3,996 --- 6 4,002 419 954 270 1,642 2,360 2.67 Jun-Aug 2,360 --- 1 2,361 420 798 293 1,511 850 2.35 Mkt. yr. 2,113 6,336 21 8,470 1,588 4,704 1,328 7,620 850 2.50 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 410 2,015 449 2,875 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 403 1,499 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 448 1,164 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 432 856 570 1,857 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 9.56 10,963 1,693 5,534 2,177 9,404 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Mkt. yr. 1,558 7,374 10 8,942 1,700 4,575 2,050 8,325 617 2.95-3.35 SORGHUM 1993/94 Sep-Nov 175 534 0 709 2 222 39 263 446 2.22 Dec-Feb 446 --- 0 446 2 108 60 170 276 2.59 Mar-May 276 --- 0 276 3 82 64 148 128 2.39 Jun-Aug 128 --- 0 128 2 41 38 81 48 2.10 Mkt. yr. 175 534 0 709 8 453 202 662 48 2.31 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 655 0 703 2 214 64 280 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 79 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 2 66 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 2 42 43 88 71 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 655 0 703 7 402 223 631 71 2.13 1995/96 Mkt. yr. 71 464 0 535 7 315 170 492 43 2.85-3.25 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY -----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Jun-Aug 151 398 3 552 43 92 15 150 403 1.91 Sep-Nov 403 --- 11 413 38 27 15 80 333 2.02 Dec-Feb 333 --- 24 357 38 83 12 133 224 2.19 Mar-May 224 --- 34 258 56 40 24 119 139 2.24 Mkt. yr. 151 398 71 621 175 241 66 482 139 1.99 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 43 122 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 38 30 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 56 22 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 175 226 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Mkt. yr. 113 361 55 529 175 215 50 440 89 2.60-2.90 OATS 1993/94 Jun-Aug 113 207 17 337 32 84 1.5 118 219 1.35 Sep-Nov 219 --- 35 254 29 30 0.7 60 194 1.33 Dec-Feb 194 --- 31 225 27 51 0.5 79 147 1.42 Mar-May 147 --- 24 170 37 28 0.2 65 106 1.39 Mkt. yr. 113 207 107 427 125 193 3.0 321 106 1.36 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 32 103 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 30 32 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 28 38 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 36 28 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 125 201 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Mkt. yr. 101 163 105 369 125 155 1 281 88 1.55-1.65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------Million ---------------------- Mil. Tons 1992/93 Sep-Nov 46.3 6.8 0.3 0.5 53.9 -2.2 51.7 Dec-Feb 36.0 1.7 1.0 0.8 39.4 0.1 39.5 Mar-May 29.4 2.0 0.5 0.6 32.5 -2.0 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.8 1.4 2.0 1.3 27.5 8.1 35.6 Mkt. yr. 134.5 11.9 3.8 3.2 153.4 3.9 157.3 82.7 1.90 % Change 8.6 25.3 -23.5 -8.4 8.2 -37.9 6.2 2.5 3.63 1993/94 Sep-Nov 43.3 5.6 0.6 0.5 50.1 -1.0 49.0 Dec-Feb 31.7 2.7 1.8 0.8 37.1 1.1 38.1 Mar-May 24.2 2.1 0.9 0.5 27.6 -0.7 27.0 Jun-Aug 20.3 1.0 2.7 1.5 25.5 10.2 35.7 Mkt. yr. 119.5 11.5 5.9 3.4 140.3 9.6 149.8 84.0 1.78 % Change -11.2 -3.4 56.5 7.1 -8.5 145.2 -4.7 1.6 -6.2 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.4 0.7 0.6 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 38.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.5 0.5 32.2 -0.8 31.4 Jun-Aug 21.7 1.1 2.5 1.2 26.5 8.3 34.9 Mkt. yr. 140.6 10.2 4.75 2.9 158.4 7.5 165.8 84.6 1.96 % Change 17.7 -11.2 -19.7 -15.3 12.9 -22.1 10.7 0.8 9.8 1995/96 Mkt. yr. 116.2 8.0 4.3 2.5 131.0 6.6 137.6 86.7 1.59 % Change -17.3 -21.6 -10.3 -11.8 -17.3 -11.1 -17.0 2.4 -18.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1993/94 ---------1994/95---------- ----1995/96---- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sep-Aug Sept September ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Barge shipments 1/ 2.8 3.1 3.1 2.0 3.9 (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 93.6 160.7 160.7 152.6 222.7 (Dec 1984 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 25.3 28.5 28.5 25.1 31.2 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 115.2 116.4 116.4 114.6 115.6 (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 2.55 2.85 4.95 4.91 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 3/ 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.73 2.02 2.75 1.36 Monthly: 1994 Jun 2.61 2.85 4.98 4.77 2.05 2.86 1.47 Jul 2.19 2.51 4.46 4.28 2.02 2.57 1.36 Aug 2.13 2.44 4.46 4.41 1.99 2.46 1.44 Sep 2.08 2.48 4.41 4.16 2.04 2.57 1.44 1995 Jun 2.65 3.04 5.26 5.13 2.22 3.15 1.73 Jul 2.79 3.23 5.61 5.41 2.25 3.69 1.92 Aug 2.68 3.21 5.53 5.38 2.09 3.22 1.96 Sep 2.83 3.32 5.84 5.78 2.06 3.58 2.04 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1-August 31. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1-May 31. 3/ Preliminary. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------$/ton-------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 3/ 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 93.00 Monthly: 1994 Jun 183.00 154.10 91.25 263.75 205.10 116.00 64.10 94.10 Jul 168.10 152.50 92.00 263.75 187.75 120.00 69.90 88.00 Aug 165.60 144.50 91.50 252.30 182.00 NQ 72.70 89.90 Sep 162.50 145.00 90.40 235.60 188.75 120.00 73.10 89.50 1995 Jun 149.10 108.75 79.90 208.10 161.60 98.90 63.61 90.60 Jul 160.10 116.90 81.90 218.75 159.80 101.00 61.80 86.30 Aug 157.50 116.50 79.40 232.00 157.40 NQ 71.90 85.20 Sep 171.75 137.60 81.60 250.00 166.70 112.00 88.10 85.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1-August 31. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1-April 30. 3/ Preliminary. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose Cereals and -----Alcohol--- & other Total Year HFCS dextrose Starch Fuel Beverage products F&I --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1992/93 Sep-Nov 92.33 54.45 58.83 104.36 20.70 29.17 359.84 Dec-Feb 88.36 47.21 57.70 107.47 20.50 28.85 350.09 Mar-May 110.36 55.06 59.34 110.91 21.15 29.64 386.46 Jun-Aug 122.99 57.74 62.16 102.77 20.95 29.64 396.25 Mkt year 414.04 214.47 238.03 425.51 83.30 117.30 1492.65 1993/94 Sep-Nov 98.23 55.79 61.71 112.23 20.69 29.42 378.08 Dec-Feb 95.00 49.58 57.60 119.33 20.47 29.10 371.07 Mar-May 117.68 56.79 61.57 112.44 20.92 29.74 399.15 Jun-Aug 131.28 60.89 62.66 114.26 20.92 29.74 419.74 Mkt year 442.18 223.05 243.54 458.26 83.00 118.00 1,568.04 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.16 58.79 62.63 134.45 20.84 29.42 410.28 Dec-Feb 99.91 51.52 60.12 141.50 20.61 29.10 402.76 Mar-May 123.28 58.49 61.45 137.73 21.07 29.74 431.77 Jun-Aug 134.77 62.41 62.65 119.11 21.07 29.74 429.75 Mkt year 462.11 231.21 246.84 532.79 83.60 118.00 1,674.55 1995/96 Mkt year 470.00 235.00 245.00 530.00 81.80 118.00 1,679.80 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, starch, New York Chicago Midwest Midwest fob Midwest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 2/ 13.17 10.55 25.74 13.29 12.18 Monthly 1994 Jul 13.01 10.44 26.00 15.85 13.01 Aug 12.91 10.36 26.00 15.85 11.96 Sep 12.94 10.39 26.00 15.85 11.69 Oct 12.93 10.38 26.00 12.80 11.78 1995 Jul 13.85 11.30 25.50 11.80 13.64 Aug 13.80 11.25 25.50 11.80 13.85 Sep 14.34 11.80 25.50 11.80 13.67 Oct 2/ 14.76 12.23 25.50 12.55 13.94 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1-August 31. 2/ Preliminary. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1992/93------ ------1993/94------ 1994/95 Sep-Aug Sep-Aug Sep-Aug ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 14,138 12,214 15,849 Taiwan 5,333 5,077 6,027 Former USSR 4,721 2,909 140 South Africa 2,354 12 189 Sub-Saharan Africa 3,955 394 431 EU 1,378 1,765 2,836 Egypt 1,397 1,553 2,569 Canada 1,247 603 1,096 China 0 0 3,240 East Europe 1,103 48 0 Algeria 1,076 1,176 1,000 S. Korea 991 508 8,005 Mexico 506 1,468 2,985 Others 3,951 9,463 10,852 Total 42,150 37,191 55,218 SORGHUM Mexico 4,147 2,942 2,557 Japan 1,922 1,640 2,050 Others 809 432 1,008 Total 6,878 5,014 5,615 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1993/94--- ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. June-Aug Mkt. yr. June-Aug June-Aug BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 579 3 344 0 0 Israel 263 138 335 199 23 Jordan 195 52 251 51 0 Others 711 100 504 145 339 Total 1,748 293 1,433 394 362 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94--- ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. June-Aug Mkt. yr. June-Aug June-Aug ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,011 158 1,161 255 409 Finland 526 131 374 71 8 Sweden 303 0 70 26 62 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,840 290 1,605 351 479 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 150 24 453 215 191 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 151 24 453 215 191 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 97 45 1,098 300 63 Other 0 0 5 10 5 Total 1/ 97 45 1,103 310 68 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, includes seed barley starting January 1994. Source: Bureau of the Census END-END-END