FEED OUTLOOK June 14, 2001 June 2001 FDS-0601 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831, issues FEED OUTLOOK 11 times a year. Electronic release only, no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 was released on April 25, 2001. Yearbooks are available in print from USDA Order Desk. For the 2001 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-2001, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn exports for 2000/01 were lowered this month reflecting the current shipping pace, and sorghum exports were increased. The lower exports resulted in an increase in ending corn stocks in 2000/01 and increased supplies in 2001/02. Barley and oats were unchanged this month. In 2001/02, corn exports were increased to 2 billion bushels because of expected reduced world supplies. The increase in exports resulted in lower ending stocks, which should strengthen average prices received by farmers. However, prices are still projected at relatively low levels. Projected global 2001/02 coarse grain production and ending stocks are down from last month, largely due to a 10-million-ton reduction in Chinas corn crop. With a sharply lower corn crop, Chinas corn exports are reduced 2 million tons. This is offset by a slight reduction in projected global imports and larger exports by the United States and South Africa. China accounts for most of the reduction in projected global 2001/02 coarse grain ending stocks. U.S. Ending Stocks of Corn in 2000/01 Highest Since 1992/93 There were no changes in the forecast U.S. production of major feed grains for 2000. However, anticipated exports of corn were revised down for 2000/01 because of slow movement to date, and sorghum exports were increased. Corn exports were increased in 2001/02 to offset reduced shipments by China. During the past month, attention was largely focused on the completion of planting and early-season growing conditions. The Grain Stocks report to be released on June 29 will provide an estimate of disappearance for the March-May quarter, along with an indication of available supplies of corn and sorghum for the summer. U.S. feed grain supplies in 2001/02 are projected to increase 1 million tons from last months forecast. Projected feed grain production in 2001 is unchanged from last month and down 8 million metric tons, or 3 percent, from 2000. Total disappearance in 2001/02 is projected at 272.8 million tons, almost 2 million tons higher than last months forecast, and up 1 percent from 2000/01. This would be the third straight year of record total use for the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley, and oats). No Change in 2001 Crop Acreage and Production Forecasts No acreage adjustments were made this month, and planting forecasts still reflect farmers' intentions from the spring. On June 29, USDA's Acreage report will provide acres planted and intended to be harvested for grain based on information gathered in the first half of June. Corn production in 2001 is projected at 9,575 million bushels, unchanged from last month, but down 4 percent from the year before. By May 30th, 95 percent of the corn crop had been planted in the major producing States, compared with the 5-year average of 92 percent. As of June 10, 62 percent of the corn crop was rated in good or excellent condition, down slightly from last year's comparable ranking of 69 percent. Most of the crop will go through the pollination and reproductive stage in July, and weather conditions then will be critical for yield prospects. Sorghum production is projected at 575 million bushels, unchanged from last month, but up from 470 million last year. By June 10, 78 percent of the crop was planted nationally, up from the 5-year average of 75 percent. Barley production in 2001 is projected at 295 million bushels, unchanged from last month, and down from last year's 318 million. By June 3, the barley crop was 97 percent planted, compared with the average of 95 percent. On June 10, 62 percent of the barley rated good or better, down 2 percentage points from the same time last year. Oats production is projected at 134 million bushels, unchanged from last month, and down from 149 million in 2000. As of June 10th, 72 percent of the oats crop rated good or better in the eight selected States, down slightly from last years 74 percent. Corn and Sorghum Prices Raised in 2001/02 The 2001/02 season-average farm price of corn is projected at $1.70-$2.10 per bushel, up from $1.65-$2.05 last month. In 2000/01, prices received by farmers for corn are expected to average $1.80-$1.90 per bushel, compared with $1.82 in 1999/2000. The forecast farm price of sorghum for 2001/02 was raised 5 cents to $1.55-$1.95 per bushel. For 2000/01, the sorghum price is estimated at $1.75-$1.85, compared with $1.57 in 1999/2000. The estimated prices received by farmers for barley and oats in 2000/01 are $2.15 and $1.10 per bushel, respectively, the same as last month. In 2001/02, the average price received by farmers for barley is anticipated to be $1.95-$2.35 per bushel, unchanged from last month, and the price for oats is projected at $0.90-$1.30, also the same as last month. World 2001/02 Coarse Grain Production Prospects Reduced 9 Million Tons Chinas corn production prospects were reduced 10 million tons this month to 115 million because of drought. May was the hottest and driest month in the last 20 years across much of the North China Plain. Dryness also hampered emergence in parts of the northeast. Although Chinas corn has not gotten off to a good start, it is still early and there is time for most of the crop to recuperate. Corn prices in China are relatively strong, and area is forecast up 2 percent. Chinas 2001/02 corn production is still forecast 9 million tons higher than the previous year when drought devastated production. Chinas recently released official preliminary estimates of 2000/01 production are 1 million tons higher than previously estimated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Global barley production prospects increased 1 million tons this month. Favorable growing conditions in Ukraine boosted forecast barley production 0.5 million tons. Drought in North Africa did not reduce barley production as much as previously thought, boosting prospects for the region by 0.5 million tons. There were smaller increases in forecast production for the Middle East (Syria) and Eastern Europe (Romania). These increases were partly offset by reduced production prospects for the European Union (EU). Spains forecast barley area and yield were reduced, dropping production prospects 1 million tons to 8.5 million. On the other hand, barley area in the United Kingdom was reportedly larger than expected, boosting production prospects by 0.5 million tons. U.S. 2000/01 Corn Export Forecast Reduced, Sorghum Increased The U.S. 2000/01 corn export forecast was reduced this month because the pace of sales and shipments was less than expected. Global imports were reduced, with Iran down 0.4 million tons, and competitors exports boosted, with South Africa up 0.5 million. South Africa is forecast to export more corn and use less domestically in both 2000/01 and 2001/02. According to U.S. Export Sales, as of May 31, 2001, corn export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) for 2000/01 were down more than 3 million tons compared with a year earlier. The revised 46.5- million-ton U.S. export forecast implies a decline of less than 3 million tons, so sales and shipments for the rest of 2000/01 are expected to exceed last years pace. Forecast U.S. sorghum exports for 2000/01 increased this month by 0.3 million tons to 5.6 million. Mexicos sorghum import forecast was increased by a like amount. Despite a drought-reduced U.S. crop, the pace of exports and export sales indicates the export market is capturing more sorghum than expected. Demand for U.S. sorghum in Mexico is strong because the poultry sector is expanding rapidly and access to corn imports is limited by quotas. U.S. 2001/02 Corn Export Forecast Increased 1.5 Million Tons U.S. corn exports are forecast to reach 51 million tons in 2001/02, up 1.5 million tons from last month. Chinas corn exports were reduced 2 million tons to 3 million because the reduced production prospects will result in higher prices in China. High domestic prices will require increased subsidies for Chinas exports to compete in world markets. However, Chinas northeast surplus corn producing region is located close to the worlds second largest corn importer, South Korea. Chinas smaller vessel sizes provide an advantage for shipping to small ports in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia. Forecast 2001/02 corn trade does not assume Chinas entry into the World Trade Organization. Additional adjustments to 2001/02 corn trade include increased export prospects for South Africa and reduced imports by Iran. World barley trade in 2001/02 is virtually unchanged this month. Forecast imports by Syria and Morocco are down this month because of increased production prospects. Ukraines barley exports are forecast up 0.5 million tons because of a larger crop. However, exports by the EU, Australia, and Canada were reduced because of increased competition from Ukraine and stagnating import demand. Forecast 2001/02 Global Coarse Grain Ending Stocks Reduced 8 Million Tons Chinas corn stocks are now projected to drop more than 10 million tons during 2001/02, and fall 32 million tons compared with the 2000/01 estimated beginning stocks. However, at over 70 million tons, Chinas forecast corn stocks remain large and account for almost half of projected global corn stocks. World coarse grain ending stocks in 2001/02 are projected at 181 million tons, down almost 8 million from a month ago and down almost 15 million from forecast 2000/01 ending stocks. Global coarse grain stocks will decline for the third consecutive year in 2001/02, and the projected level is the lowest since 1995/96. ****************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 * * International Analysis: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 * * * * The next Feed Outlook will be released on July 13, 2001 * ****************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1999/00 Sep-Nov 1,787 9,431 4 11,221 459 2,189 534 3,182 8,039 1.71 Dec-Feb 8,039 --- 3 8,043 447 1,526 468 2,441 5,602 1.91 Mar-May 5,602 --- 6 5,607 512 1,059 451 2,021 3,586 2.05 Jun-Aug 3,586 --- 2 3,588 496 890 485 1,871 1,718 1.68 Mkt. yr.1,787 9,431 15 11,232 1,913 5,664 1,937 9,515 1,718 1.82 2000/01 Sep-Nov 1,718 9,968 1 11,687 465 2,194 506 3,165 8,522 1.76 Dec-Feb 8,522 --- 1 8,523 464 1,606 416 2,486 6,037 1.97 Mkt. yr.1,718 9,968 7 11,693 1,970 5,825 1,850 9,645 2,048 1.80-1.90 2001/02 Mkt. yr.2,048 9,575 10 11,633 2,040 5,700 2,000 9,740 1,893 1.70-2.10 SORGHUM 1999/00 Sep-Nov 65 595 0 660 18 228 65 311 349 1.45 Dec-Feb 349 --- 0 349 18 29 77 124 226 1.58 Mar-May 226 --- 0 226 13 22 64 99 127 1.83 Jun-Aug 127 --- 0 127 6 6 50 62 65 1.63 Mkt. yr. 65 595 0 660 55 284 256 595 65 1.57 2000/01 Sep-Nov 65 470 0 535 17 195 62 274 261 1.72 Dec-Feb 261 --- 0 261 11 13 72 96 165 1.94 Mkt. yr. 65 470 0 535 35 225 230 490 45 1.75-1.85 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 45 575 0 620 60 285 230 575 45 1.55-1.95 Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1999/00 Jun-Aug 142 280 6 428 44 79 9 132 295 2.18 Sep-Nov 295 --- 5 300 39 24 10 73 228 2.04 Dec-Feb 228 --- 9 237 37 23 7 67 170 2.14 Mar-May 170 --- 7 178 52 10 4 66 111 2.19 Mkt. yr. 142 280 28 450 172 136 30 338 111 2.13 2000/01 Jun-Aug 111 318 7 436 44 90 8 142 294 2.35 Sep-Nov 294 --- 5 299 39 6 25 70 229 1.92 Mkt. yr. 111 318 28 457 172 125 58 355 102 2.15 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 102 295 35 432 172 125 30 327 105 1.95-2.35 OATS 1999/00 Jun-Aug 81 146 22 249 17 84 0.6 101 148 1.05 Sep-Nov 148 --- 34 182 16 32 0.3 49 134 1.08 Dec-Feb 134 --- 23 157 14 40 0.2 55 102 1.22 Mar-May 102 --- 20 122 21 24 0.7 46 76 1.31 Mkt. yr. 81 146 99 326 68 180 1.8 250 76 1.12 2000/01 Jun-Aug 76 149 21 246 17 79 0.4 96 150 1.02 Sep-Nov 150 --- 37 187 16 27 0.5 43 144 1.04 Mkt. yr. 76 149 110 335 68 185 2.0 255 80 1.10 2000/01 Mkt. yr. 80 134 105 319 68 165 2.0 235 84 .90-1.30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1999/00 Sep-Nov 55.6 5.8 0.5 0.6 62.5 -0.2 62.3 Dec-Feb 38.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 40.6 0.8 41.4 Mar-May 26.9 0.6 0.2 0.4 28.1 -0.2 27.9 Jun-Aug 22.6 0.1 2.0 1.2 25.9 8.6 34.5 Mkt. yr. 143.9 7.2 3.2 2.8 157.1 9.0 166.1 88.8 1.87 2000/01 Sep-Nov 55.7 5.0 0.1 0.5 61.3 -0.6 60.7 Dec-Feb 40.8 0.3 0.5 0.9 42.5 0.1 42.6 Mkt. yr. 148.0 5.7 2.4 2.9 158.9 7.0 166.0 89.4 1.86 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 144.8 7.2 2.9 2.7 157.6 6.1 163.8 88.0 1.86 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 98/99 1.97 2.35 3.78 3.97 1.23 2.30 1.34 99/00 3/ 1.86 2.23 3.36 3.79 NQ NQ 1.26 Monthly: 2000: Jan 1.95 2.36 3.54 4.01 NQ NQ 1.21 Feb 2.03 2.42 3.67 4.07 NQ NQ 1.19 Mar 2.08 2.42 3.19 4.16 NQ NQ 1.34 Apr 2.09 2.43 3.83 4.10 NQ NQ 1.45 2001: Jan 1.99 2.40 4.08 4.55 1.54 NQ NQ Feb 1.95 2.35 4.02 4.44 1.51 2.40 NQ Mar 1.92 2.32 4.04 4.34 1.50 2.37 NQ Apr /3 1.87 2.22 3.45 4.25 1.50 2.35 NQ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 98/99 130.56 109.86 59.87 234.76 137.32 84.87 54.74 88.10 99/00 158.15 124.00 52.89 237.31 163.13 82.93 53.13 80.20 Monthly: 2000: Jan 154.96 126.88 55.50 238.75 156.89 85.00 56.13 76.00 Feb 163.55 130.50 51.90 248.50 159.69 82.50 69.50 77.00 Mar 167.00 129.38 51.50 243.13 163.88 73.75 56.30 77.70 Apr 169.00 125.00 51.75 216.25 167.93 70.00 49.08 81.90 2001: Jan 175.59 184.00 73.40 305.00 200.80 101.80 96.07 91.30 Feb 158.34 148.75 65.87 267.50 171.99 105.00 64.82 94.20 Mar 149.06 138.13 60.63 253.75 152.97 102.00 55.53 93.70 Apr /3 149.73 140.00 54.13 228.75 135.47 101.00 51.10 100.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ=No quote. Table 5--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1999/00 Sep-Nov 129.3 56.7 63.6 131.7 31.8 46.0 459.2 Dec-Feb 119.4 49.6 60.0 138.3 33.3 46.0 446.6 Mar-May 141.7 57.1 63.7 147.9 34.9 46.5 491.9 Jun-Aug 149.2 58.4 63.8 147.8 29.7 46.5 495.4 Mkt year 539.5 221.9 251.1 565.8 129.7 185.0 1,893.0 2000/01 Sep-Nov 126.0 56.2 63.4 142.9 31.8 44.9 465.1 Dec-Feb 118.4 49.9 59.2 158.0 33.3 44.9 463.7 Mkt year 550.1 220.0 255.0 615.0 130.0 180.5 1,950.5 2001/02 Mkt year 555.0 225.0 260.0 665.0 131.0 184.0 2,020.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 98/99 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 12.28 99/00 2/ 15.05 10.91 16.38 9.18 12.39 Monthly 1999: Feb 15.17 11.07 16.38 9.25 12.40 Mar 15.39 11.29 16.38 9.25 12.76 Apr 15.26 11.16 16.38 9.25 12.94 May 15.90 11.80 16.38 9.25 13.06 2000: Feb 15.83 11.73 16.88 9.50 12.73 Mar 16.05 11.95 16.88 9.50 12.52 Apr 16.08 11.98 16.88 9.50 12.70 May /2 15.70 11.60 16.88 9.50 12.64 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. June-Mar. Mkt. yr. June-Mar. June-Mar. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,142 1,018 1,287 1,087 1,328 Finland 216 182 125 102 74 Sweden 443 359 276 250 181 Total 1/ 1,856 1,559 1,703 1,453 1,583 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 567 434 543 466 458 Total 1/ 567 434 543 466 458 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 81 74 60 39 44 Total 1/ 81 74 60 39 44 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. Sept.-Mar. Mkt. yr. Sept.-Mar. Sept.-Mar. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 15,224 8,708 15,149 9,063 8,484 Taiwan 4,365 2,370 5,036 3,111 2,768 Mexico 5,387 3,203 4,832 2,474 3,744 Egypt 3,586 1,711 3,790 2,394 2,155 S. Korea 6,462 3,350 3,134 2,176 1,492 Colombia 1,512 835 1,782 1,037 839 Saudi Arabia 1,182 704 1,164 661 669 Venezuela 1,288 891 1,073 577 456 Algeria 955 589 1,042 547 832 Dominican Republic 777 390 1,003 523 494 Canada 867 393 982 561 1,345 Turkey 692 85 874 295 247 Israel 399 181 695 404 516 Iran 0 0 611 551 144 Morocco 599 261 604 350 269 Syria 354 195 603 329 312 Chile 486 392 542 517 33 Tunisia 441 244 519 322 296 Sub-Saharan Africa 441 137 511 428 77 Former USSR 405 1 491 116 85 Peru 674 461 458 430 90 EU 192 191 141 85 12 China 259 154 58 58 0 East Europe 12 12 35 35 0 Others 3,667 2,131 3,967 2,230 2,486 Total 50,228 27,588 49,098 29,277 27,847 SORGHUM Mexico 3,103 1,693 4,824 2,955 3,047 Japan 1,362 1,038 1,123 884 674 EU 197 197 181 179 0 Others 237 177 239 158 169 Total 4,899 3,105 6,366 4,176 3,890 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. June-Mar. Mkt. yr. June-Mar. June-Mar. BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Japan 443 412 391 354 366 Mexico 94 81 104 99 96 Jordan 0 0 50 50 0 Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 0 364 Taiwan 0 0 5 5 57 Other 79 57 107 83 259 Total 615 549 657 591 1,143 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE