FEED OUTLOOK September 14, 2000 September 2000 FDS-0900 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 was released on April 24, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-2000, $21. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o 2000/01 Corn Use Raised from Last Month, Prices Strengthened o Sorghum Production Down Sharply from Last Month, Barley Raised o Foreign Corn Production Forecast Drops This Month o Global Coarse Grain Stocks To Decline in 2000/01 FEED GRAIN ENDING STOCKS LOWERED FROM LAST MONTH, STILL LARGE U.S. feed grain production in 2000 is forecast at a record 285 million metric tons, down almost 2 million from a month ago but up 22 million from 1999. Feed grain supply in 2000/01 is forecast at 338 million tons, down nearly 1 percent from last month, but up nearly 7 percent from 1999/2000. Forecast beginning stocks are down slightly from last month, but still up 2 percent from the previous year. Total 2000/01 feed grain use is projected at 276 million tons, up almost 1 percent from last month and up 3 percent from 1999/2000. Domestic use is projected to increase to a new high of 214.4 million tons, bettering the record 211 million expected in 1999/2000. With the increase in use, ending stocks are expected to be 62 million metric tons, down 6 percent from last month, but still up 24 percent from last year. On a September-August marketing year basis, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2000/01 is projected to total 165 million tons, up slightly from last month and last year. Corn is estimated to account for 89 percent of feed and residual use in 2000/01, up from 87 percent in 1999/2000. The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU) for 2000/01 is up 1 percent from last month and up from 1999/2000's 89.2 million units. Feed and residual used per GCAU in 2000/01 is 1.83 tons, down from 1.84 in 1999/2000. In the index components, GCAU's for beef cattle are down and those for dairy, pork, and poultry are up from last year. RECORD CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST Corn production in 2000 is forecast at a record 10,362 million bushels, down only 7 million from last month's projection but up 925 million from 1999. The average corn yield is forecast at a record 141.8 bushels per acre, compared with last month's forecast of 141.9 bushels and the actual 1999 yield of 133.8 bushels. If realized, this would be the highest yield ever, exceeding the old record of 138.6 bushels per acre in 1994. The September 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record high stalk count for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The September forecast of ears per acre is also record high. Ear measurements from sample plots indicate a length equal to last year and above the 5-year average. Forecast corn use in 2000/01 was increased 1 percent from last month's forecast and 5 percent from the estimate for 1999/2000. Much of the increased corn use was to compensate for drought-reduced sorghum production. Exports were raised 50 million bushels from last month, and are up 250 million from 1999/2000. Substitution of corn for sorghum imports by Mexico, expanding global corn imports, and reduced competition are the major reasons for the larger projected U.S. corn exports. Corn used in the production of high fructose corn syrup was reduced in both 1999/2000 and 2000/01. Shipments in 1999/2000 have not been as strong as earlier anticipated. Net exports of corn sweeteners in September 1999-June 2000 (the latest data) were down almost 1 percent from the same period a year earlier. Net corn sweetener exports to Mexico, a major destination, were down 12 percent in the same time period. While corn used for high fructose corn syrup is expected to rise in 2000/01, the rate of increase was lowered to reflect current conditions. Estimates of corn used to make ethanol in 1999/2000 were increased because output has remained strong to date. High prices for gasoline and MTBE (a competing oxygenate and octane booster), and strong prices for ethanol are encouraging increased production. For 2000/01, ethanol production is expected to increase 5 percent from last year and more than was expected last month. Given the increased use and slightly lower supplies, projected ending stocks and prices are up. The projected price for 2000/01 is $1.50-$1.90 per bushel, up from last month's $1.45-$1.85. In 1999/2000, the season average price received by farmers is expected to be $1.80. SORGHUM CROP TO DECREASE IN 2000/01 Sorghum production in 2000 is forecast at 516 million bushels, down 62 million from last month because of lower expected yields than last month. This production is down 13 percent from 1999's 595 million bushels. Yields are forecast at 62.1 bushels per acre, down 7.4 bushels, because of drought and heat in the Southern Plains, with Kansas, the leading producer, down 16 bushels from last month. With supplies down, use was reduced because less sorghum would be available locally to produce ethanol for feeding and for export. Domestic use of sorghum is expected to total 295 million bushels, down 35 million bushels from last month, and down 50 million from expected use in 1999/2000. Exports are projected at 220 million bushels, down 20 million from last month, and down 30 million from 1999/2000. Ending stocks are also expected to be down from last month and very near the 1999/2000 level. Prices for 1999/2000 are forecast at $1.55 per bushel, 86 percent of the expected corn price. The projected price for sorghum in 2000/01 is $1.30-$1.70 per bushel, up from $1.20-$1.60 last month, and approximately 87 to 89 percent of the corn price. BARLEY PRODUCTION INCREASES Barley production for 2000 is forecast at 310 million bushels, up 2 million from a month ago and up 28 million from 1999. Yields are expected to average 59.2 bushels per acre, up from 58.8 bushels last month and the same as last year. Compared with the August forecast, Minnesota, Oregon, South Dakota, and Washington are expecting higher yields, while Colorado and Wyoming yields are down due to drought conditions. Total barley use in 2000/01 is unchanged from last month, but domestic use is down 5 million bushels, while exports are up a like amount. Tight world supplies and strong world prices are boosting projected exports. Ending stocks are up 2 million bushels from last month and down 7 million from 1999/2000. Prices received by farmers for barley in 2000/01 are expected to average $1.80-$2.20 per bushel, up $.15 on each end from last month. The spread between malting barley and feed barley is expected to remain wider than in past years, strengthening prices received by farmers for all barley. FOREIGN CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST DROPS THIS MONTH Foreign corn production in 2000/01 is projected to reach 344 million tons, down almost 6 million from a month ago. The largest changes were for Eastern Europe, down 4 million tons this month, where drought and extreme high temperatures devastated the corn crop. The regions' major exporters, Hungary, Romania, and the former Yugoslavia, were all reduced. Other exporters also faced reduced production prospects, with South Africa and Ukraine down. Foreign corn production in 2000/01 is forecast down 6 percent from a year ago, nearly enough to offset the record U.S. corn crop. Compared with a year earlier, global corn production prospects are up less than 2 million tons to 607 million. GLOBAL COARSE GRAIN STOCKS TO DECLINE IN 2000/01 The 2000/01 global coarse grain production forecast declined almost 8 million tons this month, more than for corn mostly because of reduced sorghum prospects in the United States. Global production of coarse grains is now forecast to increase slightly in 2000/01. Meanwhile, global coarse grain consumption is expected to increase and remain larger than production, and cause a modest decline in global stocks for the second year in a row. However, global coarse grain stocks, projected at 164 million tons, are larger than in 7 of the last 10 years. Moreover, U.S. stocks are expected to increase 12 million tons, while foreign stocks are expected to drop 15 million. Since the United States is the leader in global price determination, the abundant U.S. supplies are expected to keep prices low. U.S. CORN EXPORT PROSPECTS BOOSTED BY REDUCED COMPETITION AND INCREASED IMPORTS U.S. corn exports in 2000/01 are forecast at 55 million tons, up 1.5 million from a month ago because of reduced competition and increased imports. Corn export forecasts were reduced for Hungary and Ukraine. Forecast 2000/01 imports increased for a number of countries, partly because as additional 1999/2000 trade data become available, more countries were revised up than down, boosting the import demand base. Global corn trade forecast in 1999/2000 increased almost 1 million tons this month. Examples of countries with increased 2000/01 import prospects this month include the Dominican Republic, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Colombia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Along with smaller increases to other markets, these increases more than offset reduced import prospects for Malaysia, South Korea, and Ecuador. Lingering problems with disease in livestock may be dampening corn demand in Malaysia and South Korea, while Ecuador has faced a contracting economy. Canada is expected to increase corn imports in 2000/01 because of a reduced corn crop in Ontario, where cold wet weather has reduced yield prospects. Mexico's forecast corn imports increased 0.5 million tons this month because with a sharply reduced sorghum crop in the United States, Mexico is expected to import more corn and less sorghum. While U.S. corn exports are forecast up 1.5 million tons this month, U.S. sorghum exports are down 0.5 million. ***************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 * * International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released October 16, 2000. * ****************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,759 4 11,071 450 2,118 450 3,019 8,052 1.90 Dec-Feb 8,052 --- 6 8,058 434 1,460 465 2,359 5,698 2.04 Mar-May 5,698 --- 7 5,706 495 1,097 497 2,089 3,616 2.04 Jun-Aug 3,616 --- 2 3,618 468 795 568 1,831 1,787 1.80 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,759 19 11,085 1,846 5,471 1,981 9,298 1,787 1.94 1999/00 Sep-Nov 1,787 9,437 4 11,228 459 2,210 534 3,203 8,025 1.71 Dec-Feb 8,025 --- 3 8,028 447 1,511 468 2,426 5,602 1.90 Mar-May 5,602 --- 6 5,607 512 1,058 451 2,021 3,587 2.04 Mkt. yr.1,787 9,437 15 11,239 1,920 5,625 1,925 9,470 1,769 1.80 2000/01 Mkt. yr.1,769 10,362 10 12,142 1,975 5,750 2,175 9,900 2,242 1.50-1.90 SORGHUM 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 178 41 234 335 1.67 Dec-Feb 335 --- 0 335 15 34 64 113 222 1.69 Mar-May 222 --- 0 222 10 45 51 106 116 1.73 Jun-Aug 116 --- 0 116 6 5 41 51 65 1.60 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 262 197 504 65 1.66 1999/00 Sep-Nov 65 595 0 660 18 229 65 312 348 1.45 Dec-Feb 348 --- 0 348 18 28 77 123 226 1.58 Mar-May 226 --- 0 226 13 22 64 99 127 1.81 Mkt. yr. 65 595 0 660 55 290 250 595 65 1.55 2000/01 Mkt. yr. 65 516 0 581 50 245 220 515 66 1.30-1.70 BARLEY 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 152 326 2.03 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 16 8 63 271 1.97 Dec-Feb 271 --- 6 277 37 32 7 76 201 1.89 Mar-May 201 --- 9 210 51 12 5 68 142 1.85 Mkt. yr. 119 352 30 501 170 161 28 360 142 1.98 1999/00 Jun-Aug 142 282 6 429 44 81 9 134 295 2.13 Sep-Nov 295 --- 5 300 39 22 10 71 229 2.04 Dec-Feb 229 --- 9 239 37 24 7 68 170 2.14 Mar-May 170 --- 7 178 52 10 4 66 112 2.15 Mkt. yr. 142 282 28 451 172 137 30 339 112 2.13 2000/01 Mkt. yr. 112 310 30 452 172 140 35 347 105 1.80-2.20 OATS 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 166 28 268 17 89 0.5 106 162 1.15 Sep-Nov 162 --- 36 198 16 38 0.4 54 143 1.08 Dec-Feb 143 --- 22 166 14 38 0.5 53 113 1.20 Mar-May 113 --- 22 134 22 31 0.3 53 81 1.23 Mkt. yr. 74 166 108 348 69 196 1.7 266 81 1.10 1999/00 Jun-Aug 81 146 22 249 17 84 0.6 101 148 1.05 Sep-Nov 148 --- 34 182 16 30 0.3 46 136 1.08 Dec-Feb 136 --- 23 159 14 42 0.2 56 102 1.22 Mar-May 102 --- 20 123 21 24 0.7 47 76 1.32 Mkt. yr. 81 146 99 326 68 180 1.8 250 76 1.12 2000/01 Mkt. yr. 76 153 100 329 68 180 2.0 250 79 0.95-1.35 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1998/99 Sep-Nov 53.8 4.5 0.3 0.6 59.3 -2.0 57.3 Dec-Feb 37.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 39.3 0.3 39.6 Mar-May 27.9 1.2 0.3 0.5 29.8 0.9 30.7 Jun-Aug 20.2 0.1 1.8 1.3 23.4 7.4 30.8 Mkt. yr. 139.0 6.7 3.1 3.0 151.8 6.6 158.4 88.1 1.80 % Change -0.2 -28.2 -10.5 -1.5 -2.1 -24.9 -3.3 0.1 -3.5 1999/00 Sep-Nov 56.1 5.8 0.5 0.5 63.0 -0.2 62.8 Dec-Feb 38.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 40.3 0.8 41.1 Mar-May 26.9 0.6 0.2 0.4 28.0 -0.3 27.8 Mkt. yr. 142.9 7.4 3.0 2.8 156.0 7.8 163.9 89.2 1.84 % Change 2.8 10.7 -3.6 -7.2 2.8 18.5 3.5 1.3 2.1 2000/01 Mkt. yr. 146.1 6.2 2.9 2.9 158.1 6.8 164.9 90.2 1.83 % Change 2.2 -15.5 -0.9 2.2 1.3 -13.1 0.6 1.0 -0.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 98/99 3/ 1.97 2.35 3.78 3.97 1.23 2.30 1.34 Monthly: 1999: Apr 2.05 2.39 3.78 4.06 NQ NQ 1.36 May 2.03 2.35 3.67 3.94 NQ NQ 1.39 Jun 1.99 2.36 3.61 3.86 NQ NQ 1.34 Jul 1.67 2.12 3.40 3.46 NQ NQ 1.25 2000: Apr 2.09 2.43 3.83 4.10 NQ NQ 1.45 May 2.15 2.43 3.49 4.27 NQ NQ NQ Jun 1.83 2.13 3.00 3.60 NQ NQ NQ Jul 3/ 1.53 1.91 3.37 3.34 NQ NQ NQ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 98/99 130.56 109.86 59.87 234.72 137.32 85.77 54.74 88.10 Monthly: 1999: Apr 128.60 110.90 54.25 192.50 128.70 83.00 54.10 86.40 May 127.00 108.75 56.90 201.25 129.60 84.00 41.40 96.60 Jun 131.70 114.50 57.90 209.50 137.10 87.00 45.70 85.00 Jul 125.71 115.00 51.75 241.25 133.75 91.67 39.20 82.00 2000: Apr 169.00 125.00 51.75 216.25 167.93 70.00 49.08 84.50 May 180.10 123.25 51.10 240.00 181.33 92.00 49.16 93.90 Jun 170.18 130.63 48.80 223.75 174.64 76.00 49.00 85.70 Jul 3/ 156.84 131.88 45.25 218.75 173.45 81.00 42.53 84.50 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Preliminary. Table 5--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1997/98 Sep-Nov 118.4 59.3 62.8 116.1 33.2 45.5 435.2 Dec-Feb 112.5 52.6 59.7 122.2 32.8 45.0 424.8 Mar-May 134.2 56.8 61.3 118.3 33.5 46.0 450.1 Jun-Aug 147.8 60.5 62.0 124.6 33.5 46.0 474.4 Mkt year 512.9 229.2 245.8 481.1 133.0 182.4 1,784.4 1998/99 Sep-Nov 123.1 56.6 60.8 132.4 31.1 45.9 449.9 Dec-Feb 116.6 48.7 57.6 132.9 32.6 45.4 433.8 Mar-May 140.5 56.2 60.1 138.8 34.1 46.4 476.0 Jun-Aug 150.2 57.7 61.2 121.8 29.4 46.4 466.7 Mkt year 530.5 219.1 239.8 525.8 127.1 184.2 1,826.4 1999/00 Sep-Nov 129.3 56.7 63.6 131.7 31.8 46.0 459.2 Dec-Feb 119.4 49.6 60.0 138.3 33.3 46.0 446.6 Mar-May 141.7 57.1 63.7 147.9 34.9 46.5 491.9 Mkt year 540.0 225.0 250.0 570.0 129.7 185.0 1,899.7 2000/01 Mkt year 550.0 230.0 255.0 600.0 130.2 190.0 1,955.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 98/99 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 12.28 99/00 2/ 15.05 10.91 16.38 9.18 12.39 Monthly 1999: May 15.18 11.08 16.38 8.45 12.97 Jun 15.20 11.10 16.38 8.45 12.82 Jul 14.72 10.62 16.38 8.45 12.73 Aug 15.12 11.27 16.38 8.45 11.74 2000: May 15.90 11.80 16.38 9.25 13.06 Jun 15.29 10.25 16.38 9.25 13.36 Jul 14.72 11.07 16.38 9.25 12.76 Aug 2/ 14.62 10.52 16.38 9.25 12.04 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. June Mkt. yr. June June ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,142 30 1,287 45 58 Finland 216 27 125 24 0 Sweden 443 77 276 65 0 Total 1/ 1,856 133 1,703 134 58 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 567 56 543 39 48 Total 1/ 567 56 543 40 48 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 81 39 60 2 4 Total 1/ 81 39 60 2 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Sept.-June Mkt. yr. Sept.-June Sept.-June ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 14,581 12,348 15,110 12,496 12,833 S. Korea 3,593 2,796 6,462 5,052 2,562 Mexico 4,116 3,388 5,387 4,776 4,172 Taiwan 3,801 3,298 4,365 3,529 4,333 Egypt 1,808 1,290 3,159 2,880 2,678 Colombia 1,175 950 1,512 1,281 1,477 Venezuela 655 497 1,288 1,032 848 Saudi Arabia 971 854 1,182 1,043 936 Algeria 861 713 955 760 776 Canada 1,423 1,236 867 588 699 Dominican Republic 644 507 777 641 812 Turkey 379 255 692 580 779 Peru 253 172 674 587 430 Morocco 350 259 592 432 465 Chile 147 147 486 392 517 Former USSR 23 22 405 245 486 China 212 53 204 204 58 South Africa 0 0 143 58 309 Other Sub-Saharan 336 324 298 154 171 EU 147 30 192 192 86 East Europe 19 19 12 12 35 Others 2,623 2,217 5,464 3,864 4,988 Total 38,117 31,374 50,228 40,798 40,450 SORGHUM Mexico 3,222 2,867 3,103 2,487 3,995 Japan 1,650 1,599 1,362 1,197 1,023 Others 463 442 433 425 364 Total 5,334 4,909 4,899 4,109 5,381 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. June Mkt. yr. June June BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 0 0 Israel 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 0 0 50 0 0 Japan 443 21 391 85 22 Mexico 94 4 104 6 4 Taiwan 0 0 5 0 0 Other 79 2 107 4 3 Total 615 27 657 95 30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE