FEED OUTLOOK September 12, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS-0996. Note: Tables in this report will not be properly formatted unless printed or displayed with both a fixed-pitch font, such as Courier, and an 80-character line width. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Forecast of 1996 Corn Crop Raised 109 Million Bushels o Sorghum Crop Forecast Rises 30 Million Bushels; Barley Up 6 Million o Corn Ending Stocks Up with Larger Crop, Cut in 1995/96 Exports o Minor Revisions Made in Barley and Sorghum Food and Industrial Use HIGHER PRODUCTION BOOSTS 1996/97 FEED GRAIN SUPPLY U.S. feed grain production in 1996 is forecast at 253.9 million metric tons, up 3.7 million from last month, due to increases in corn, sorghum, and barley crops. Coupled with a small increase in carryin stocks of corn and sorghum, this raises forecast feed grain supply by nearly 5 million tons to 271.1 million. With the demand outlook about unchanged, carryout stocks are slightly larger than anticipated a month ago. Feed grain ending stocks in 1996/97 are projected at 22.2 million tons, still very low by historical standards, but indicating some slight rebuilding. Compared with 1995/96, feed grain production is forecast up 45 million metric tons or 21 percent. Because of very low carryin stocks, however, total supply is only forecast about 14 million tons higher or up 5 percent. CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST AT 8.8 BILLION BUSHELS Forecast 1996 corn production as of September 1 is up 1 percent from last month to 8,804 million bushels because of higher yields. This is an increase of 19 percent from 1995's 7,374 million bushels. Average yields are forecast at 120.2 bushels per acre, up from 118.7 a month ago. There were numerous changes among individual States. Expected yields were reduced for Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Colorado. Among the largest producing States, yield forecasts were raised for Nebraska, Illinois, Missouri, and Iowa. Forecast yields in Indiana were not changed. If realized, a national yield of 120.2 bushels would be the third highest historically, but still well below the 131.2 bushels achieved in 1992 and the record 138.6 in 1994. While crop development accelerated across the Midwest in August, the crop remains behind the normal pace of development in many areas. As of September 8, 52 percent of the crop had dented, compared with the average of 67 percent. The crop is farthest behind in Ohio, while crops in Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin are also well behind. SORGHUM PRODUCTION FORECAST AT 764 MILLION BUSHELS, BARLEY AT 394 MILLION The U.S. sorghum crop is forecast at 764 million bushels, up 30 million from a month ago, also reflecting better yields. The average yield was forecast at 63.6 bushels per acre, an increase of 2.5 bushels from August. Kansas accounts for most of the increase, followed by Nebraska. Conditions in Kansas, the largest producing State, have been excellent and record yields and production are expected. The Kansas crop is forecast at 331 million bushels, 20 million more than the previous high in 1986. In contrast, yield prospects in Texas are much weaker (although no changes were made in the Texas forecast this month). Sorghum yields are forecast at 47 bushels per acre in Texas, the lowest since 1980. However, because of a huge increase in sorghum area, production in Texas is still forecast to rise 40 percent from 1995 to 183 million bushels. BARLEY PRODUCTION RAISED 2 PERCENT FROM AUGUST Barley production in 1996 is forecast at 394 million bushels, up 6 million from August due to a small increase in yield prospects. In North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wyoming, expected yields were up from last month. This more than outweighed reductions in forecast yields in Montana and Oregon, due to hot, dry weather during July and August, and in Washington. Barley production is forecast 35 million bushels higher than in 1995 because of an 8-percent increase in harvested acreage and a 2-percent increase in yield from 1995's 57.2 bushels per acre. North Dakota, the largest barley producing State, increased expected harvested acreage by 13 percent from 1995, and 1996 yields are expected to be up 10 bushels from last year. As a result, the North Dakota crop is forecast up 38 percent from 1995 to 140 million bushels. NO CHANGES IN 1996/97 CORN USE; BEGINNING AND ENDING STOCKS RAISED Total disappearance of 1996/97 corn is projected at 8,555 million bushels, unchanged from last month. With supplies boosted by a larger crop and a 35-million bushel increase in carryin stocks, the projection of ending stocks is raised 145 million bushels to 668 million. This results in a stocks-to-use ratio of 7.8 percent, up from the extremely low ratio of 4.8 percent forecast in 1995/96. The corn export forecast for 1995/96 was reduced 35 million bushels to 2,215 million this month. Export shipments were very low in the last few weeks, while importers continued to cancel some previous purchases. The smaller exports are reflected in the larger forecast of ending stocks. Final ending stocks for the 1995/96 marketing year will be reported September 30 in the Grain Stocks report. There will be very strong interest in the report because it provides an estimate of total disappearance for the summer quarter, when corn supplies were extremely tight and prices high. NEAR-RECORD FOREIGN COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION EXPECTED The forecast of foreign coarse grain crops in 1996/97 was raised nearly 6 million tons this month to 611.1 million, because of sharp increases in barley crops in Canada and the European Union (EU). The coarse grain production forecast is just 400,000 tons under the 1993/94 record, despite low output in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Compared to 1993, FSU harvests are forecast to be 38 million tons lower in 1996. The robust production outlook for coarse grains is a result of generally favorable weather and an increase in area--largely in response to high prices. The year-over-year production increase of more than 25 million tons would be the largest since 1990. Larger barley crops account for around half of these gains. Canada is expected to a have a record barley crop, while output in the EU will be the highest since 1991. A large barley crop is also expected in Australia. Barley production in North Africa has experienced a dramatic turnaround from drought problems in 1995, and the region's harvest is forecast up nearly 5 million tons to a record high. Although the gains in corn from 1995 will be less dramatic than in barley, foreign production is expected to hit a record high for the second straight year. The forecast includes record corn crops for China and the EU, both potential exporters. Foreign oats production will also be up from 1995, led by a jump of more than 60 percent in Canada's oats crop, forecast at a record 4.7 million tons. FEED GRAIN PRICES BEGIN TO DECLINE U.S. market prices for corn began to decline in recent weeks as new-crop supplies started to come into the market. The amounts of corn involved are still small, reflecting harvests from the southern States, but in some cases supplies have been moving north into normally corn surplus areas because of very tight old-crop supplies. After an upward spike in mid-August, in reaction to the August crop report, Central Illinois cash prices sank to under $4.00 per bushel by the end of August--the first time prices had been that low since late March--and they continued to move downward in early September. The December futures contract for corn slipped from highs of near $3.50 in August to the low $3.30 range by the second week of September. This probably reflects a slight reduction in the risk premium as fears of frost damage have become less intense. The forecast of the season average farm price of corn in 1996/97 was reduced by 15 cents at both ends of the range to $3.00-3.40 a bushel, given bigger crop prospects. Farm prices for corn reported in August, however, continued to increase. The preliminary price of corn received by farmers in August was $4.50 per bushel, up from $4.43 in July, and the sixth consecutive monthly record. Prices of sorghum also began to decline with the onset of the new-crop harvest, which starts earlier than that of corn. The farm price of sorghum, which had been running at more than 100 percent of corn for many months, began to fall in June and has continued to drop since then. In August, the preliminary price of sorghum of $3.67 stood at just 82 percent of the corn price. The 1996/97 farm price forecast was reduced by 25 cents to $2.80-3.20 per bushel, while the 1995/96 forecast was trimmed by 5 cents to $3.20. Barley and oats prices also began to decline in recent weeks, reflecting the start of harvests as well as developments in the other feed grain markets. The preliminary farm price of all barley in August was $2.93 per bushel, dropping below $3.00 for the first time since last fall. The season average forecast price for 1996/97 was reduced by 30 cents to $2.70-3.10 per bushel. Oats prices slipped 7 cents from July to a preliminary $2.05 in August. The season average farm price forecast was cut by 10 cents to $1.85-2.25 per bushel, reflecting the reduced price forecast for corn. REVISIONS MADE IN CALCULATION OF FOOD AND INDUSTRIAL USES FOR BARLEY AND SORGHUM Food and industrial use data for barley and grain sorghum were revised this month following a review of the various use categories. With publication of the final 1992 Census of Manufactures, changes have been made in estimates to reflect the numbers reported by Census. Historical food and industrial use data for barley and grain sorghum relied heavily on monthly data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF). (Historical data are available from Auto Fax documents 12029 and 12030.) The use of barley for malting (ultimately used in brewing beer) accounts for the major share of use, with smaller amounts for food and distilling purposes. Food, alcohol, and industrial uses of barley are primarily keyed off the ATF numbers plus the exports of malt. Comparison of these estimates with the use of barley reported by the Census of Manufacturers was slightly higher but the time periods are not identical. In addition, the volume of barley used by flour and other grain mill product producers was not reported and had to be estimated from the dollar value. The net impact on total food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of barley was about 9 million bushels in the most recent 2 years. The net impact on total FSI use of grain sorghum was 4 million bushels or less in the current and most recent 2 years. The new series is much more variable, because sorghum use for alcohol is very small and depends on prices of sorghum and availability. Comparison of sorghum used by manufacturers is not available because so little sorghum is milled that the Census does not report it separately. ****************************************************************************** * * * Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 * * Transportation: T.Q. Hutchinson (202) 219-0391 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 * * * * The next Feed Outlook will be released October 15, 1996. * * * ****************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. Stocks tion ports Resid. ports Disp. Stks. Price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN -------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu. 1993/94 Sep-Nov 2,113 6,336 5 8,455 380 1,703 435 2,518 5,937 2.34 Dec-Feb 5,937 --- 8 5,945 376 1,243 330 1,949 3,996 2.71 Mar-May 3,996 --- 6 4,002 418 955 270 1,642 2,360 2.67 Jun-Aug 2,360 --- 1 2,361 418 800 293 1,511 850 2.35 Mkt. yr. 2,113 6,336 21 8,470 1,591 4,700 1,328 7,620 850 2.50 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 406 2,019 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 406 1,496 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 445 1,167 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 434 854 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 9.56 10,962 1,691 5,537 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 409 1,760 660 2,830 6,106 2.78 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 387 1,362 562 2,311 3,800 3.18 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 406 1,071 610 2,086 1,718 3.83 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 3 1,721 372 558 383 1,313 409 Mkt. yr. 1,558 7,374 17 8,949 1,575 4,750 2,215 8,540 409 3.25 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 409 8,804 10 9,223 1,655 4,850 2,050 8,555 668 3.00-3.40 SORGHUM 1993/94 Sep-Nov 175 534 0 709 1 223 39 263 446 2.22 Dec-Feb 446 --- 0 446 1 109 60 170 276 2.59 Mar-May 276 --- 0 276 1 83 64 148 128 2.39 Jun-Aug 128 --- 0 128 1 41 38 81 48 2.10 Mkt. yr. 175 534 0 709 4 456 202 662 48 2.31 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 0 210 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 80 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 1 67 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 1 43 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 3 400 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 1 176 54 231 301 2.88 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.30 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 1 55 36 92 70 4.00 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 1 -12 43 32 38 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 4 290 200 494 38 3.20 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 38 764 0 802 4 500 225 729 73 2.80-3.20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY -----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Jun-Aug 151 398 3 552 43 92 15 150 403 1.91 Sep-Nov 403 --- 11 413 37 28 15 80 333 2.02 Dec-Feb 333 --- 24 357 34 87 12 133 224 2.19 Mar-May 224 --- 34 258 53 43 24 119 139 2.24 Mkt. yr. 151 398 71 621 166 250 66 482 139 1.99 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 44 122 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 36 32 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 36 53 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 51 27 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 166 235 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 359 12 484 42 112 17 171 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 37 30 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 34 19 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 52 22 16 89 101 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 359 41 512 166 183 62 412 101 2.89 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 101 394 45 540 166 225 35 426 114 2.70-3.10 OATS 1993/94 Jun-Aug 113 207 17 337 32 84 1.5 118 219 1.35 Sep-Nov 219 --- 35 254 29 30 0.7 60 194 1.33 Dec-Feb 194 --- 31 225 27 51 0.5 79 147 1.42 Mar-May 147 --- 24 170 37 28 0.2 65 106 1.39 Mkt. yr. 113 207 107 427 125 193 3.0 321 106 1.36 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 32 103 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 30 32 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 28 38 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 35 29 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 124 202 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 32 78 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 30 23 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 27 30 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 122 34 21 0.8 56 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 81 343 123 152 2 277 66 1.68 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 66 158 85 309 120 125 2 247 62 1.85-2.25 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------Million metric tons -------------- Mil. Tons 1993/94 Sep-Nov 43.2 5.7 0.6 0.5 50.1 -1.0 49.0 Dec-Feb 31.6 2.8 1.9 0.8 37.1 1.1 38.1 Mar-May 24.2 2.1 0.9 0.5 27.8 -0.7 27.1 Jun-Aug 20.3 1.0 2.7 1.5 25.6 10.2 35.8 Mkt. yr. 119.4 11.6 6.1 3.4 140.4 9.6 150.0 84.0 1.79 % Change -10.7 -3.1 58.1 7.1 -8.0 145.2 -4.2 1.5 -5.6 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.3 5.3 0.7 0.6 57.9 -0.8 57.1 Dec-Feb 38.0 2.0 1.2 0.6 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.6 0.5 32.4 -0.8 31.6 Jun-Aug 21.7 1.1 2.4 1.2 26.4 8.4 34.8 Mkt. yr. 140.6 10.2 4.90 2.8 158.5 7.5 166.0 84.6 1.96 % Change 17.8 -12.4 -19.6 -15.8 12.9 -21.6 10.7 0.7 9.9 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.7 4.5 0.7 0.4 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.6 1.8 0.4 0.5 37.3 0.3 37.7 Mar-May 27.2 1.4 0.5 0.3 29.4 -1.8 27.6 Jun-Aug 14.2 -0.3 2.1 0.8 16.8 10.9 27.6 Mkt. yr. 120.7 7.4 3.6 2.0 133.7 6.8 140.4 85.3 1.65 % Change -14.2 -27.5 -26.2 -28.1 -15.7 -10.0 -15.4 0.9 -16.2 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 123.2 12.7 4.9 2.3 143.1 6.8 149.9 84.0 1.79 % Change 2.1 72.4 35.5 15.0 7.1 0.7 6.8 -1.6 8.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1993/94 ---------1994/95---------- ----1995/96---- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sep-Jul Jul Sep-Jul Jul ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Barge shipments 1/ 2.8 3.1 2.9 4.2 3.7 4.4 (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 93.6 160.8 155.0 169.9 158.0 92.3 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 25.3 28.5 28.2 28.8 27.7 23.2 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 115.2 116.6 116.8 114.9 116.7 115.1 (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 3/ 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 3/ 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 Monthly: 1995: Apr 2.41 2.79 4.68 4.08 1.97 NQ 1.62 May 2.50 2.84 4.93 4.27 2.11 NQ 1.76 Jun 2.65 3.04 5.26 4.97 2.22 3.15 1.73 Jul 2.79 3.23 5.61 5.41 2.25 3.69 1.92 1996: Apr 4.47 4.80 8.16 8.44 2.99 NQ 2.56 May 4.86 5.17 8.88 8.46 3.20 4.11 2.68 Jun 4.74 4.99 8.57 7.95 3.22 3.28 2.11 Jul 4.70 5.07 8.36 7.38 2.79 3.74 2.48 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Revised. NQ = No quote. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 Monthly: 1995: Apr 151.00 98.10 77.40 206.25 160.60 93.50 55.75 89.40 May 148.10 92.75 78.50 196.50 159.60 98.00 49.70 95.30 Jun 149.10 108.75 79.90 208.10 161.60 98.90 63.61 91.60 Jul 160.10 116.90 81.90 218.75 159.80 101.00 61.80 89.60 1996: Apr 237.90 206.25 127.40 336.50 212.90 156.60 148.00 94.50 May 232.30 191.25 138.40 343.10 220.20 186.50 114.70 102.40 Jun 227.90 192.20 122.10 315.00 231.80 190.00 127.80 96.90 Jul 242.30 201.75 109.30 308.50 239.60 175.40 112.70 92.90 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1993/94 Sep-Nov 98.5 55.8 56.4 112.2 27.7 29.4 380.1 Dec-Feb 95.3 49.6 52.7 119.3 29.9 29.1 375.8 Mar-May 118.0 56.7 56.3 112.4 24.9 29.7 398.2 Jun-Aug 131.8 60.8 57.3 114.3 23.2 29.7 417.1 Mkt year 443.6 222.9 222.7 458.3 105.8 118.0 1571.3 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 29.4 405.8 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 28.2 29.1 405.8 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.2 29.7 430.1 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 29.7 430.8 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.3 118.0 1672.4 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 29.4 409.4 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 28.0 29.1 387.4 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 54.9 91.8 20.0 29.7 388.1 Jun-Aug 139.0 60.7 57.7 61.3 21.3 29.7 369.8 Mkt year 485.0 235.0 220.0 395.0 101.6 118.0 1554.6 1996/97 Mkt year 505.0 245.0 230.0 425.0 110.0 120.0 1635.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, starch, New York Chicago Midwest Midwest fob Midwest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 2/ 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 Monthly 1995: May 13.22 10.67 25.50 11.80 12.89 Jun 13.59 11.04 25.50 11.80 13.22 Jul 13.85 11.30 25.50 11.70 13.64 Aug 2/ 13.80 11.25 25.50 11.80 13.85 1996: May 20.28 16.19 25.50 13.15 17.45 Jun 20.18 16.08 25.50 13.15 18.65 Jul 20.45 16.35 25.50 13.15 18.65 Aug 2/ 21.72 17.62 25.50 13.15 19.19 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94------ ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. Sep-June Mkt. yr. Sep-June Sep-June ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 12,322 10,689 15,849 13,174 12,857 Taiwan 5,077 4,484 6,027 5,130 5,024 Former USSR 2,909 2,857 140 140 27 South Africa 12 12 187 161 347 Sub-Saharan Africa 394 309 449 386 317 EU 1,765 1,599 2,836 2,445 2,791 Egypt 1,553 1,086 2,569 2,112 1,933 Canada 603 423 1,096 799 578 China 0 0 3,240 2,166 2,207 East Europe 48 48 112 67 188 Algeria 1,176 866 1,000 867 413 S. Korea 508 143 8,005 6,461 7,521 Mexico 1,468 935 2,985 2,526 5,486 Others 5,813 4,956 10,723 8,582 10,259 Total 33,649 28,407 55,218 45,015 49,947 SORGHUM Mexico 2,972 2,490 2,557 2,158 1,365 Japan 1,640 1,401 2,050 1,805 1,432 Others 432 427 1,008 938 1,368 Total 5,044 4,317 5,615 4,901 4,165 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June Mkt. yr. June June BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 203 0 373 0 0 Israel 468 26 42 19 7 Jordan 51 0 0 0 0 Others 671 5 932 74 55 Total 1,392 31 1,347 93 62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1994/95--- ------1995/96------ 1996/97 Mkt. yr. June Mkt. yr. June June ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,161 94 1,302 157 31 Finland 374 29 22 8 0 Sweden 70 26 62 62 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,605 149 1,387 227 31 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 715 89 740 88 77 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 716 89 740 88 77 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 702 141 141 13 24 Other 16 10 6 0 0 Total 1/ 719 151 147 13 24 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census END-OF-FILE