FEED OUTLOOK July 14, 2000 July 2000 FDS-0700 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 was released on April 24, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-2000, $21. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Feed Grain Supply for 2000/01 Projected to be Highest Since 1987/88 o Ending Stocks Rise in 1999/2000 and 2000/01 o Projected Foreign Stocks Drop Nearly Offsets U.S. Stocks Gain o Reduced Competition and Low Prices Boost U.S. Corn Export Prospects LARGER PLANTED ACREAGE EXPANDS 2000/2001 FEED GRAIN SUPPLY U.S. feed grain production in 2000 is projected at 278 million metric tons, up 7 million from a month ago and up 14 million from 1999. The June 30 Acreage report showed planted acres increased from earlier intentions for corn and oats, while sorghum and barley acres declined. The first survey-based production forecast for barley was down 13 million bushels from the previous projection, which was based on trend yields and expected plantings. USDA will make its first survey-based forecasts for corn and sorghum in August. Feed grain supply in 2000/01 is projected at 332 million tons, up 3 percent from last month, and 14 million tons more than 1999/2000. An increase in forecast beginning stocks and larger 2000 production, especially corn, have led to the increased supply this month, which is the highest since 1987/88. Beginning stocks were increased 2 million metric tons to 51 million because of lower 1999/2000 domestic use, but stocks were essentially unchanged from 1999/2000. Projected total use of feed grains in 1999/2000 was trimmed 2 million tons this month, reflecting lower than expected feed and residual use in the March-May quarter. Projected feed and residual use in 2000/01 was also reduced, but 2000/01 exports were raised 3 percent from last month to 59 million tons. Ending stocks for 2000/01 are projected at 61 million tons, up 9 million from last month and the largest since 1992/93. Prices are expected to remain weak in 2000/01, given the projected increase in supply and little gain in use. FEED AND RESIDUAL USE IN 2000/01 TO INCREASE Feed and residual use in 2000/01 is expected to total 156 million metric tons and account for 58 percent of total use. When converted to a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat is projected to total 162.9 million tons, down slightly from 1999/2000's 163.9 million. Corn is estimated to account for 88 percent of the feed and residual use, the same as in 1999/2000. The index of grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) for 2000/01 is expected to be down 1 million units from 1999/2000's 89.3 million units. The grain used per GCAU would be 1.84 tons, up 1 percent from 1999/2000. In the index components, GCAUs for dairy, hogs, and cattle on feed are down, while those for poultry are up. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more on June 1 were up 9 percent from a year earlier. Placements were up 12 from a year earlier. Thus, current feed use by cattle feedlots is stronger than last year. Recent calf crops would suggest placements should be declining. The cow herd has been declining since 1996. Heifer slaughter and heifers on feed remain near record large, suggesting fewer heifers being kept for replacements. Heifers kept for herd replacement in late 2000 and 2001 are expected to increase from current low levels and reduce the number of cattle on feed. As a result, cattle on feed numbers in 2000/01 may be down from 1999/2000, and feed use could be weaker. Pork production in 2001 is expected to increase 1 percent from the 18.9 billion pounds expected in 2000, which is down 2 percent from 1999. Hog farmers responding to the June 2000 survey indicated that they intended to decrease the number of sows farrowing in June-November 2000 by 1 percent relative to the prior year. If producers carry through with these reported intentions, feed needs by the pork sector are likely to be unchanged in 2000/01. With low grain prices keeping feed costs low, broiler and egg production in 2001 are expected to increase from the expected 2000 levels and continue strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production in 2001 is expected to increase 5 percent from 2000 as producers respond to abundant feed supplies and lower feed prices. Turkey production is expected to total 5.4 billion pounds, up 1 percent from 1999. In 2001, turkey producers are expected to increase production by nearly 2 percent from a year earlier. Egg producers are expected to produce 7.2 billion dozen eggs in 2001, up 1 percent from the expected 2000 output. CORN CROP PROJECTED AT 10 BILLION BUSHELS The projection for 2000 corn production was increased 3 percent from last month because of a 3-percent increase in the estimate of harvested acres. As of July 9, 74 percent of the corn crop was rated good or excellent, down from 78 percent last year. However, as usual, the crop could move either way, depending on conditions in the next month. Projected corn use is up 10 million bushels from last month's projection and up 240 million bushels from the estimate for 1999/2000. With an increased supply this month and small change in use, ending stocks were raised 323 million bushels. Higher projected U.S. corn exports are due to reduced competition from China and Eastern Europe. With increased corn supplies in 2000/01 and ending stocks projected up from last month, prices were decreased this month. The projected price for 2000/01 is $1.50-$1.90 per bushel, down from last month's estimate of $1.65-$2.05. In 1999/2000, the season average price received by farmers is expected to be $1.80. FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL USE OF CORN IN 2000/2001 TO INCREASE Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 2000/01 is expected to total 1,960 million bushels, down 15 million from last month because a reduction in HFCS use offsets increases in ethanol use. In 1999/2000, FSI use is expected to total 1,920 million bushels, down 10 million from last month because of a 20- million-bushel reduction in HFCS use but a 10 million increase in ethanol use. In 2000/01, FSI use, if realized, would represent 20 percent of total use, the same as the previous 2 years. FSI use in 1999/2000 is expected to increase for all estimated uses, but corn used to produce ethanol shows the largest increase. Based on the monthly ethanol production reported by the Energy Information Administration in the Department of Energy, corn used to make ethanol in 1999/2000 was estimated up 7 percent from the 526 million bushels used in 1998/99. In 2000/01, corn used to produce ethanol was raised 10 million bushels from last month and is expected to increase 3 percent from the anticipated 565 million bushels used in 1999/2000. Gasoline prices have increased sharply from last year and have raised demand for ethanol for octane blending. In addition, shifting to Phase II gasoline on June 1 caused prices to strengthen, especially in Chicago and Milwaukee. Increased demand and higher prices of MTBE have boosted ethanol prices and shown that Phase II gasoline can be produced using ethanol as the oxygenate. Higher prices of gasoline have also meant that alcohol fuel has become competitively priced for flexible fuel vehicles. Thus alcohol use is expected to continue strong during the remainder of 1999/2000 and into 2000/01. Corn used for HFCS production in September 1999-May 2000 was up 3 percent from the same period in 1998/99. Since HFCS is used in soft drinks, the June-August quarter is usually the strongest and yearly production is expected to be up 3 percent. Although HFCS production was reduced this month, in 2000/01, corn used for HFCS production is expected to increase 2 percent from the 545 million bushels used in 1999/2000. Corn used to make glucose and dextrose during September 1999-May 2000 was up 1 percent from the same period a year earlier and is expected to be up 3 percent for the year-over-year total. In the first three quarters of the 1999/2000 corn marketing year, corn used for starch production has been up 5 percent from the same period in 1998/99. For all of 1999/2000, corn used to make starch is expected to increase 4 percent from 1998/99. SORGHUM PRODUCTION UP, OATS AND BARLEY DOWN Sorghum production in 2000 is projected at 564 million bushels, up 8 million from a month ago because of more harvested acres. Sorghum plantings are estimated at 8.8 million acres, down 174,000 from the March intentions. However, harvested area is forecast at 8.1 million acres, up 110,000 from last month's projection, which was based on March planting intentions and a 3- year average difference between planted and harvested acres. Sorghum supplies in 2000/01 are expected to increase from last month because of increased beginning stocks and production. For 1999/2000,feed and residual use was lowered this month because of larger than expected third quarter ending stocks. The lower use resulted in larger expected ending stocks for 1999/2000. In the 1999/2000 marketing year, prices received by farmers for sorghum have averaged 88 percent of the corn price and have declined in response to anticipated larger crops. Projected prices for 1999/2000 are $1.55 per bushel. The forecast price for sorghum in 2000/01 is $1.25-$1.65, approximately 85 percent of the corn price. BARLEY PRODUCTION DECLINES The first survey-based forecast of 2000 barley production is 307 million bushels, down 13 million from the previous projection and up 25 million from the 1999 crop. Planted area declined 31,000 acres from earlier intentions to 5.7 million, but was up 479,000 acres from 1999. Harvested acres are estimated at 5.2 million, also up from last year. Average barley yields are forecast at 58.7 bushels per acre, down from last month's trend-based projection of 61.0 bushels. Total barley use in 2000/01 is projected to be the same as last month but is up 1 percent from 1999/2000. Increases are in feed and residual use while exports are down from last year. Prices received by farmers for barley in 2000/01 are expected to average $1.65-$2.05 per bushel, vs. the expected $2.15 in 1999/2000. The spread between malting barley and feed barley is expected to be less than in 1999/2000, because more acres were planted than last year in States that tend to produce malting barley. OATS PRODUCTION FORECAST SLIPS Oats production is forecast at 151 million bushels in 2000 according to the first survey results, up 3 million from the initial projection, and up 3 percent from 1999. Planted acres are up 121,000 acres from the March intentions, but harvested acres are down 1,000 from intentions. Compared with 1999, planted acres are up 19,000. Yields are forecast at 61.2 bushels per acre, up 2 percent from the trend yield used last month and up 3 percent from 1999. Prices received by farmers in 2000/01 are expected to average between $0.85 and $1.25 per bushel, compared with the $1.10 expected in 1999/2000. The projected price is about the same ratio to the corn price as in 1999/2000. HAY HARVESTED ACREAGE INCREASES The acreage farmers reported they intend to harvest for hay in 2000 was down 871,000 acres from the March intentions report and 979,000 acres from the 63 million harvested in 1999. Acreage harvested of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures will be down 1 percent from 1999, and harvested acres of all other hay will be down 2 percent. The biggest decreases in hay acreage from last year are in Texas (610,000 acres) and Montana (200,000). This is in contrast to the March intentions, where Texas was down 130,000 acres and Montana 100,000 acres. Global 2000/01 Coarse Grain Production Declines This Month on East Europe's Drought Projected world coarse grain production declined 4.5 million tons this month because reduced corn production in Eastern Europe and China more than offset the large U.S. increase. Foreign 2000/01 corn production plummeted 11.6 million tons. Severe drought and high temperatures were most intense in southern and central parts of Eastern Europe, striking prime corn production regions in Hungary, Romania, and the former Yugoslavia. Record high temperatures following an extended drought likely did extensive damage to yield prospects. Eastern Europe's projected corn production dropped almost 7 million tons to less than 24 million. China's corn area reportedly declined more than previously estimated. Farmers switched area to soybeans in the key northeastern region because of better price prospects. The northeastern region suffered from dryness during June, but projected yields were left nearly unchanged because the crop has not yet reached the critical reproductive stage. Reduced area dropped China's 2000/01 corn production to a projected 122 million tons, down 3 million from a month ago. Canada's coarse grain production prospects declined this month as both barley and corn area were reported lower than previously expected. Moreover, cold rainy weather has slowed corn development in Ontario, reducing yield prospects. Canada's barley production declined 0.5 million tons to 14.5 million while corn dropped 1.2 million to 9 million. Projected coarse grain production in 2000/01 in the former Soviet Union declined 1.4 million tons this month. Less area was planted to oats and millet in Russia and less to oats in Ukraine. Also, Moldova suffered from the drought and high temperatures that hit Eastern Europe, reducing corn production prospects 0.5 million tons. Projected Foreign Stocks Drop Nearly Offsets U.S. Stocks Gain While foreign coarse grain production is projected down more than 11 million tons this month, consumption is down less than 2 million tons. Feed use is projected down in Eastern Europe, dropping consumption by almost 3 million tons, as sharply reduced production curtails use. Reduced production is also leading to a 1-million-ton decline in expected coarse grain use in the former Soviet Union. However, a reassessment of demand growth in China boosted projected corn use 2 million tons, despite reduced crop prospects. Very large stocks and reduced corn prices are expected to encourage corn use in China. With sharp declines in expected production and only a small reduction in global use, foreign stocks are down almost 7 million tons this month to 93 million, the lowest since 1995/96. This offsets most of the increase in projected U.S. stocks, leaving 2000/01 global coarse grain ending stocks up about 1 million tons this month to 154 million. That is nearly the same as beginning stocks, indicating that global coarse grain supply and use is expected to be fairly balanced in 2000/01. Reduced Competition and Low Prices Boost U.S. Corn Export Prospects U.S. corn exports in 2000/01 (October/September)are projected to reach 52 million tons (2.05 billion bushels September/August), the highest in 5 years. U.S. exports are up 2.5 million tons this month because of sharply reduced competition. Eastern Europe's corn exports are projected down almost 2 million tons this month because sharply reduced production is expected to curtail supplies. Most of the drop is in Hungary. Also, China's projected exports declined 1 million tons to 5 million because lower U.S. corn prices are expected to make it more difficult for China to compete in East Asian markets. Prospects for 2000/01 global corn trade were reduced slightly this month as lower imports projected for India and Brazil more than offset a small increase for Canada. Still, at over 70 million tons, projected world corn trade is the largest since 1989/90. ************************************************************* Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released August 15, 2000. ************************************************************* Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,207 2 10,092 435 2,030 380 2,845 7,247 2.53 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 1 7,248 425 1,503 380 2,308 4,940 2.55 Mar-May 4,940 --- 4 4,944 470 1,084 350 1,904 3,040 2.45 Jun-Aug 3,040 --- 2 3,042 475 865 394 1,734 1,308 2.12 Mkt. yr. 883 9,207 9 10,099 1,805 5,482 1,504 8,791 1,308 2.43 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,759 4 11,071 450 2,118 450 3,019 8,052 1.90 Dec-Feb 8,052 --- 6 8,058 434 1,460 465 2,359 5,698 2.04 Mar-May 5,698 --- 7 5,706 495 1,097 497 2,089 3,616 2.04 Jun-Aug 3,616 --- 2 3,618 468 795 568 1,831 1,787 1.80 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,759 19 11,085 1,846 5,471 1,981 9,298 1,787 1.94 1999/00 Sep-Nov 1,787 9,437 4 11,228 459 2,210 534 3,203 8,025 1.71 Dec-Feb 8,025 --- 3 8,028 447 1,511 468 2,426 5,602 1.90 Mar-May 5,602 --- 5 5,607 512 1,053 455 2,020 3,587 2.05 Mkt. yr.1,787 9,437 15 11,239 1,920 5,625 1,875 9,420 1,819 1.80 2000/01 Mkt. yr.1,819 10,013 10 11,842 1,960 5,650 2,050 9,660 2,182 1.50-1.90 SORGHUM 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 634 0 681 18 239 49 307 374 2.26 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 18 38 83 139 235 2.24 Mar-May 235 --- 0 235 12 71 55 139 96 2.16 Jun-Aug 96 --- 0 96 6 17 24 47 49 2.08 Mkt. yr. 47 634 0 681 55 365 212 632 49 2.21 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 178 41 234 335 1.67 Dec-Feb 335 --- 0 335 15 34 64 113 222 1.69 Mar-May 222 --- 0 222 10 45 51 106 116 1.73 Jun-Aug 116 --- 0 116 6 5 41 51 65 1.60 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 262 197 504 65 1.66 1999/00 Sep-Nov 65 595 0 660 18 229 65 312 348 1.45 Dec-Feb 348 --- 0 348 18 28 77 123 226 1.58 Mar-May 226 --- 0 226 13 23 63 99 127 1.83 Mkt. yr. 65 595 0 660 55 290 250 595 65 1.55 2000/01 Mkt. yr. 65 564 0 629 55 260 240 555 74 1.25-1.65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 360 12 482 44 87 24 155 327 2.31 Sep-Nov 327 --- 7 334 39 12 39 90 244 2.45 Dec-Feb 244 --- 8 252 37 29 6 72 180 2.42 Mar-May 180 --- 13 193 53 16 5 74 119 2.26 Mkt. yr. 109 360 40 510 172 144 74 390 119 2.38 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 152 326 2.03 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 16 8 63 271 1.97 Dec-Feb 271 --- 6 277 37 32 7 76 201 1.89 Mar-May 201 --- 9 210 51 12 5 68 142 1.85 Mkt. yr. 119 352 30 501 170 161 28 360 142 1.98 1999/00 Jun-Aug 142 282 6 429 44 81 9 134 295 2.13 Sep-Nov 295 --- 5 300 39 22 10 71 229 2.04 Dec-Feb 229 --- 9 239 37 24 7 68 170 2.14 Mar-May 170 --- 7 177 52 9 4 65 112 2.18 Mkt. yr. 142 282 27 451 172 137 30 339 112 2.15 2000/01 Mkt. yr. 112 307 30 449 172 145 25 342 107 1.65-2.05 OATS 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 167 19 253 17 80 0.4 98 155 1.62 Sep-Nov 155 --- 38 193 17 31 0.7 49 144 1.54 Dec-Feb 144 --- 26 170 15 44 0.5 59 111 1.59 Mar-May 111 --- 15 127 23 29 0.5 53 74 1.60 Mkt. yr. 67 167 98 332 72 185 2.1 258 74 1.60 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 166 28 268 17 89 0.5 106 162 1.15 Sep-Nov 162 --- 36 198 16 38 0.4 54 143 1.08 Dec-Feb 143 --- 22 166 14 38 0.5 53 113 1.20 Mar-May 113 --- 22 134 22 31 0.3 53 81 1.23 Mkt. yr. 74 166 108 348 69 196 1.7 266 81 1.10 1999/00 Jun-Aug 81 146 22 249 17 84 0.6 101 148 1.05 Sep-Nov 148 --- 34 182 16 30 0.3 46 136 1.08 Dec-Feb 136 --- 23 159 14 42 0.2 56 102 1.22 Mar-May 102 --- 21 124 21 26 0.7 48 76 1.32 Mkt. yr. 81 146 100 328 68 181 1.8 252 76 1.10 2000/01 Mkt. yr. 76 151 100 327 68 180 2 250 77 0.85-1.25 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1997/98 Sep-Nov 51.6 6.1 0.3 0.6 58.5 -3.1 55.4 Dec-Feb 38.2 1.0 0.6 0.7 40.5 0.0 40.5 Mar-May 27.5 1.8 0.3 0.5 30.1 0.3 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.0 0.4 2.2 1.3 25.9 11.6 37.5 Mkt. yr. 139.2 9.3 3.4 3.1 155.0 8.8 163.8 87.9 1.86 % Change 3.9 -29.3 -5.6 7.3 0.9 14.5 1.5 3.1 -1.5 1998/99 Sep-Nov 53.8 4.5 0.3 0.6 59.3 -2.0 57.3 Dec-Feb 37.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 39.3 0.3 39.6 Mar-May 27.9 1.2 0.3 0.5 29.8 0.9 30.7 Jun-Aug 20.2 0.1 1.8 1.3 23.4 7.5 30.9 Mkt. yr. 139.0 6.7 3.1 3.0 151.8 6.7 158.5 88.1 1.80 % Change -0.2 -28.2 -10.5 -1.5 -2.1 -23.7 -3.3 0.1 -3.4 1999/00 Sep-Nov 56.1 5.8 0.5 0.5 63.0 -0.2 62.8 Dec-Feb 38.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 40.3 0.9 41.2 Mar-May 26.8 0.6 0.2 0.4 28.0 -0.3 27.6 Mkt. yr. 142.9 7.4 3.0 2.8 156.1 7.9 163.9 89.3 1.84 % Change 2.8 10.7 -3.9 -6.5 2.8 17.3 3.4 1.4 2.0 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 143.5 6.6 3.0 2.9 156.1 6.8 162.9 88.3 1.84 % Change 0.4 -10.3 3.1 1.3 0.0 -13.6 -0.7 -1.1 0.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 98/99 3/ 1.97 2.35 3.78 3.97 1.23 2.30 1.34 Monthly: 1999: Feb 2.05 2.40 3.78 4.11 NQ NQ 1.26 Mar 2.09 2.45 3.85 4.16 NQ NQ 1.35 Apr 2.05 2.39 3.78 4.06 NQ NQ 1.36 May 2.03 2.35 3.67 3.94 NQ NQ 1.39 2000: Feb 2.03 2.42 3.67 4.07 NQ NQ 1.19 Mar 2.08 2.42 3.19 4.16 NQ NQ 1.34 Apr 2.09 2.43 3.83 4.10 NQ NQ 1.45 May 3/ 2.15 2.43 3.49 4.27 NQ NQ NQ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 98/99 130.56 109.86 59.87 234.72 137.32 85.77 54.74 91.00 Monthly: 1999: Feb 124.40 101.25 62.50 222.50 131.70 97.00 62.00 83.70 Mar 127.20 106.90 56.00 198.00 124.50 92.00 68.50 83.20 Apr 128.60 110.90 54.25 192.50 128.70 83.00 54.10 86.40 May 127.00 108.75 56.90 201.25 129.60 84.00 41.40 95.70 2000: Feb 163.55 130.50 51.90 248.50 159.69 82.50 69.50 77.40 Mar 167.00 129.38 51.50 243.13 163.88 73.75 56.30 78.00 Apr 169.00 125.00 51.75 216.25 167.93 70.00 49.08 84.50 May 3/ 180.10 123.25 51.10 240.00 181.33 92.00 49.16 93.90 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ preliminary. Table 5--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1997/98 Sep-Nov 118.4 59.3 62.8 116.1 33.2 45.5 435.2 Dec-Feb 112.5 52.6 59.7 122.2 32.8 45.0 424.8 Mar-May 134.2 56.8 61.3 118.3 33.5 46.0 450.1 Jun-Aug 147.8 60.5 62.0 124.6 33.5 46.0 474.4 Mkt year 512.9 229.2 245.8 481.1 133.0 182.4 1,784.4 1998/99 Sep-Nov 123.1 56.6 60.8 132.4 31.1 45.9 449.9 Dec-Feb 116.6 48.7 57.6 132.9 32.6 45.4 433.8 Mar-May 140.5 56.2 60.1 138.8 34.1 46.4 476.0 Jun-Aug 150.2 57.7 61.2 121.8 29.4 46.4 466.7 Mkt year 530.5 219.1 239.8 525.8 127.1 184.2 1,826.4 1999/00 Sep-Nov 129.3 56.7 63.6 131.7 31.8 46.0 459.2 Dec-Feb 119.4 49.6 60.0 138.3 33.3 46.0 446.6 Mar-May 141.7 57.1 63.7 147.9 34.9 46.5 491.9 Mkt year 545.0 225.0 250.0 565.0 129.7 185.0 1,899.7 2000/01 Mkt year 555.0 230.0 255.0 580.0 130.2 190.0 1,940.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 98/99 2/ 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 12.28 Monthly 1999: Mar 15.47 11.37 25.68 8.28 12.40 Apr 15.22 11.12 15.75 8.45 12.88 May 15.18 11.08 16.38 8.45 12.97 Jun 15.20 11.10 16.38 8.45 12.82 2000: Mar 15.39 11.29 16.38 9.25 12.76 Apr 15.26 11.16 16.38 9.25 12.94 May 15.90 11.80 16.38 9.25 13.06 Jun 2/ 15.38 11.28 16.38 9.25 13.36 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Jun - Apr. Mkt. yr. Jun - Apr. Jun - Apr. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,282 1,251 1,142 1,090 1,192 Finland 161 161 216 182 102 Sweden 176 159 443 432 276 Total 1/ 1,696 1,647 1,856 1,704 1,584 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 733 655 567 512 502 Total 1/ 733 655 567 512 502 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 112 101 81 78 44 Total 1/ 143 101 81 78 44 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Sept.-Apr. Mkt. yr. Sept.-Apr. Sept.-Apr. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 14,581 10,008 15,110 10,058 10,153 S. Korea 3,593 1,917 6,462 3,989 2,448 Mexico 4,116 2,600 5,387 3,752 3,051 Taiwan 3,801 2,835 4,365 2,749 3,555 Egypt 1,808 1,166 3,159 2,078 2,446 Colombia 1,175 798 1,512 1,025 1,126 Venezuela 655 458 1,288 899 654 Saudi Arabia 971 728 1,182 761 773 Algeria 861 605 955 661 581 Canada 1,423 902 867 431 599 Dominican Republic 644 438 777 465 615 Turkey 379 104 692 235 519 Peru 253 170 674 500 430 Morocco 350 217 592 326 395 Chile 147 147 486 392 517 Former USSR 23 22 405 1 403 China 212 53 204 154 58 South Africa 0 0 143 0 309 Other Sub-Saharan 336 263 298 192 129 EU 147 7 192 191 86 East Europe 19 19 12 12 35 Others 2,623 1,782 5,464 3,097 4,273 Total 38,117 25,239 50,228 31,968 33,153 SORGHUM Mexico 3,222 2,338 3,103 1,992 3,351 Japan 1,650 1,555 1,362 1,098 956 Others 463 420 433 395 337 Total 5,334 4,312 4,899 3,485 4,644 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Jun-Apr. Mkt. yr. Jun-Apr. Jun-Apr. BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 922 922 0 0 0 Israel 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 53 53 0 0 50 Japan 290 290 422 412 377 Mexico 124 120 94 88 101 Taiwan 94 94 0 0 5 Other 135 132 99 75 85 Total 1,617 1611 615 575 618 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE