FEED OUTLOOK August 16, 1999 August 1999 FDS-0899 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 1999 was released on April 26, 1999. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-1999, $21. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o 1999 Corn Production Lowered from Last Month, Prices Strengthened o Sorghum and Oats Production Estimates Raised From Last Month o Record Hay Production To Increase Supplies Per RCAU o Forecast World 1999/2000 Coarse Grain Stocks Decline from Year Earlier FEED GRAIN SUPPLY LARGEST SINCE 1987/1988 U.S. feed grain production in 1999 is forecast at 266 million metric tons, down about 2 million from a month ago and down 5 million from 1998. This reflects adjustments for each of the feed grains. Feed grain supply in 1999/2000 is forecast at 318.5 million tons, down 1 percent from last month, but 6.1 million tons less than 1998/99. Forecast beginning stocks are down slightly from last month, but still up 30 percent from the previous year. Year over year, increases in supply will slightly exceed gains in use in 1999/2000. Total feed grain use is projected at 265 million tons in 1999/2000, up 1 percent from the previous year. Domestic use is projected to increase to a new high of 210 million tons, bettering the record 208 million expected in 1998/99. Feed and residual use in 1999/2000 is expected to total 155.1 million metric tons and account for 59 percent of total use. When converted to a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 1999/2000 is projected to total 163 million tons, down slightly from 1998/99's 164 million. Corn is estimated to account for 87 percent of the feed and residual use in 1999/2000, up from 86 percent in 1998/99. The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU) for 1999/2000 is down 119,000 units from 1998/99's 88.5 million units. The grain used per GCAU in 1999/2000 would be 1.84 tons, down 1 percent from 1998/99. In the index components, GCAU's for dairy, hogs, and cattle are down and those for poultry are up. A 1 percent increase in beef production forecast for 1999 and 2000 led to an increase in the GCAU index this month. CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST LOWEST SINCE 1995/96 Corn production in 1999 is forecast at 9,561 million bushels, down 89 million from last month's projection and down 2 percent from 1998. This is the first survey-based forecast of the season and it reflected August 1 conditions. The average corn yield is forecast at 134.7 bushels per acre, compared with last month's trend-adjusted projection of 135.8 bushels and the actual 1998 yield of 134.4 bushels. If realized, this would be the second highest yield ever, trailing the 138.6 bushels per acre in 1994. Estimated acreage of corn harvested for grain was cut 84,000 acres this month to 70,955 million due to drought conditions several mid-Atlantic States. An additional acreage change was made in Michigan since its crop has advanced rapidly under ideal conditions and farmers expect to harvest a larger percentage of their acreage for grain. Forecast corn use is the same as last month's forecast and up 40 million bushels from the estimate for 1998/99. With a reduced supply this month and no changes in use, ending stocks were reduced 114 million bushels. Importing countries have purchased corn before prices began rising and causing the forecasted exports for 1998/99 to rise 25 million bushels. With reduced corn supplies in 1999/2000 and lower ending stocks than projected last month, prices were increased this month. The forecast price for 1999/2000 is $1.70-$2.10 per bushel, up from last month's estimate of $1.65-$2.05. In 1998/99, the season average price received by farmer is expected to be $1.95. SORGHUM CROP TO INCREASE IN 1999/2000 The first survey-based forecast for sorghum indicates production of 588 million bushels in 1999, up 15 million from the previous projection. This is an increase of 13 percent from 1998's 520 million bushels. Plantings rose 300,000 acres from the June estimate as Texas producers planted land abandoned from cotton. The forecast for harvested area was increased about 200,000 acres because of the increase in planted acreage in Texas. Yields in 1999 are forecast at 69.2 bushels per acre, up from the earlier projection of 69 (based on a simple linear trend fit over 1960- 98), and up from the 67.3 bushels of 1998. Both planted and harvested acres are up this month. The increase in sorghum supplies is expected to boost feed and residual use in 1999/2000 by 20 percent from 1998/99. Larger supplies and lower prices than corn will boost food, seed, and industrial uses along with exports. In the 1998/99 marketing year, prices received by farmers for sorghum have averaged 85 percent of the corn price and have declined in response to anticipated larger crops. Projected prices for 1998/99 are $1.70 per bushel. The forecast price for sorghum in 1999/2000 is $1.40-$1.80, approximately 85 percent of the corn price. BARLEY PRODUCTION DECLINES Barley production for 1999 is forecast at 281 million bushels, down 14 million bushels from a month ago and down 19 percent from 1998. Yields are expected to average 58.2 bushels per acre, down 3 percent from last year. Planted area declined about 70,000 acres from earlier estimates to 5,167 million, the lowest since records were first kept in 1926. Acreage was updated due to a reduction in North Dakota. Harvested acres are estimated at 4,834 million, down 59,000 from last month and down 18 percent from 1998. Total barley use in 1999/2000 is forecast down 4 percent from last month and down 39 million bushels from last year because of a smaller supply and stronger prices. Reductions are in feed and residual, since food, seed, and industrial uses tend to vary with population growth. Final trade numbers for 1998/99 indicated imports of 30 million bushels, the same as last month and exports of 28 million, a 2 million decline. The 1999/2000 barley export forecast was unchanged this month at 30 million bushels because of tight world supplies. Prices received by farmers for barley in 1999/2000 are expected to average $1.70-$2.10 per bushel, vs. the expected $1.95 in 1998/99. With crop conditions and production down in States that tend to produce malting barley, the spread between malting barley and feed barley is expected to be wider than normal in 1999/2000. OATS PRODUCTION FORECAST SLIPS The 1999 oats crop is forecast at 162 million bushels, up 1 million from the July forecast, but down 5 million from 1998. If realized, this would be the third lowest on record, exceeding the 1995 crop by 1 million bushels and the record low in 1996 by 8.9 million. The forecast yield, at 61.6 bushels per acre, is up 1.2 bushels from last year's 60.4 bushels per acre. This would be the third highest yield on record, behind the record 65.4 bushels in 1992 and the 63.6 bushels in 1985. Planted area was raised this month by 40,000 acres because of a revision in plantings in North Dakota. Area harvested and to be harvested for grain is estimated at a record low 2.63 million acres, increased 40,000 acres from the previous month, and 5 percent below 1998. Total supplies of oats are forecast down 2 percent from 1998/99's 349 million. Total use for 1999/2000 is expected to be down 2 percent from 1998/99's 267 million bushels. Stronger prices than last year are expected to reduce feed and residual use. Final trade numbers for 1998/99 caused nearly a 3-million-bushel increase in oats imports this month from last month's estimate of 105 million, the highest ever. Exports remained at 2 million bushels, the same as last year. Prices received by farmers in 1999/2000 are expected to average between $0.90 and $1.30 per bushel, compared with the $1.15 expected in 1998/99. The forecast price is slightly below the ratio to the corn price in 1998/99. ALL HAY PRODUCTION TO INCREASE All hay production in 1999 is forecast at a record high 161 million tons, up 9 million from 1998, and 5 percent higher than in 1997. The all hay yield is expected to be a record 2.59 tons per acre, up 3 percent from last year. Acreage harvested of all hay was increased this month by 100,000 acres to 62.1 million, 3 percent higher than 1998. Alfalfa hay production, at 83.2 million tons, increased 1 percent from 1998. The top three alfalfa producing States all increased production: California up 4 percent, South Dakota up 17 percent, and Wisconsin up 7 percent. Northeastern States hard hit by the drought have had reduced yields and production. For example, yields were down 18 percent from last year in both Pennsylvania and New York and yields in Maryland were down 22 percent. Other hay production is forecast at a record high 77.6 million tons, up 12 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 2.04 tons per acre. If realized, this would be the first U.S. yield over 2 tons per acre. Harvested area, at 38.1 million acres, is up 5 percent from last year and the largest since 1962. This estimate is up 100,000 acres from last month because of a revision to the North Dakota estimate. In Texas, other hay production is expected to be up 88 percent from the drought- reduced output last year and yields are up 56 percent. Texas is the top other hay producing State. Roughage consuming animal units (RCAUs) in 1999/2000 are estimated to be down 1 percent from 1998/99. With hay production and beginning stocks up, hay supply per RCAU was 2.52 tons, up from 2.34 tons in 1998/99. Hay prices have been weaker in 1999/2000, reflecting larger supplies. Prices received by farmers for all hay averaged $83.90 per ton in May-July 1999, down from $94 in 1998. Alfalfa hay prices in May-July 1999 averaged $87.57 per ton, down from $99 in 1998. Prices received by farmers for hay other than alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures averaged $67.73 per ton during May-July 1999, down from $75 in 1998. U.S. 1998/99 CORN EXPORT FORECAST INCREASED, PROSPECTS FOR 1999/2000 LOWER The U.S. 1998/99 corn export forecast increased 1 million tons this month to 50 million tons for the October/September international marketing year or 1.95 billion bushels for the September/August U.S. marketing year. This is up from the previous year by almost one third. According to U.S.Export Sales, as of August 5, shipments were up by 33 percent while outstanding sales were 66 percent higher than a year earlier. However, some of the outstanding sales are expected to be shipped during the next marketing year. Based on the pace of purchases and shipments, import forecasts were raised for Egypt, up 0.6 million to 4.1 million tons; Mexico, up 0.25 million to 5.5 million; and Saudi Arabia, up 0.2 million to 1.5 million. Smaller increases were projected for Costa Rica and Turkey. On the export side, there were small reductions this month in Argentina, Romania, and the EU, which were more than offset by increased exports forecast for China, based on an aggressive recent sales pace, and South Africa, where the production estimate increased. World corn trade in 1998/99 is expected to increase to 66.8 million tons, almost matching 1996/97, before the Asian financial crisis and disease in Taiwan's hogs sharply reduced demand from the Pacific Rim. U.S. market share is up in 1998/99 because of reduced competition from China and Argentina. Prospects for U.S. corn exports in 1999/2000 are not as bright, with increased competition and a stagnating level of world trade. The U.S. corn export projection was reduced this month by 0.5 million tons to 48.5 million. Outstanding export sales for 1999/2000 are down 4 percent from a year ago. Recently, when prices increased because of hot dry weather in the United States, China sold large quantities of corn increasing forecast exports this month by 1.0 million tons to 3.5 million. Increased exports forecast this month for South Africa were offset by a reduction in Hungary. Projected global imports for 1999/2000 increased 0.5 million tons this month to 66.3 million. Increased consumption in Egypt boosted import prospects, more than offsetting a small reduction in Brazil's imports caused by improved production prospects. WORLD 1999/2000 COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS REDUCED World coarse grain production prospects for 1999/2000 were reduced significantly this month. Dry weather in China cut corn production prospects by 4 million tons, while hot, dry conditions north of the Black Sea dropped coarse grain production prospects in the former Soviet Union. Forecast foreign coarse grain production dropped 10 million tons this month. The smaller corn crop in China is expected to have relatively little effect on consumption and trade because the crop is still larger than a year earlier and corn supplies will still be abundant. Carryin stocks are large, and domestic consumption growth is expected to be modest, as economic restructuring limits increased demand for meat. China's consumption projection was reduced 3 million tons this month. Because of reduced production and increased exports, China's coarse grain ending stocks are projected down 2.3 million tons this month, but during 1999/2000 stocks are still expected to increase because production is still expected to exceed consumption plus exports. Hot, dry conditions extended from the North Caucasus in Russia into Ukraine during July, devastating corn and further reducing spring barley prospects. Russia's coarse grain production declined 1.8 million tons to 21.9 million, while Ukraine's dropped 2.8 million to 9.2 million. Production in the former Soviet Union at 39.7 million tons, is almost as bad as last year's disaster of 37.8 million. Because of last year's terrible crop, stocks going into 1999/2000 are at minimal levels. There is not enough foreign exchange to finance a significant increase in imports, so consumption is expected to drop. Former Soviet Union coarse grain consumption was reduced 4.0 million tons this month to 40.7 million, down from 45.3 million in 1998/99 and the lowest in at least four decades. Barley production in Eastern Europe was also reduced 1.1 million tons this month, lowering exports and consumption forecasts. Although Saudi Arabia's imports were reduced as the government is liquidating stocks, EU barley export prospects increased to a record 9 million tons. EU barley production prospects were reduced this month, and with increased exports, ending stocks are projected down 0.7 million tons to 12.5 million, still quite large by historical standards. World coarse grain ending stocks for 1999/2000 are forecast at 142 million tons, down from 143 million a year earlier. Stocks as a percent of consumption are now expected to decline slightly from 16.4 percent to 16.2. ***************************************************************** Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released September 14, 1999. ***************************************************************** New ERS Report Examines Price Determination for Corn and Wheat A new ERS report, Price Determination for Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government Programs examines some of the factors that affect U.S. farm-level prices for corn and wheat. Annual price determination models for those crops are developed using a stocks-to-use modeling framework. This formulation is augmented by additional factors that result in yearly shifts of the functional relationship between prices and stocks-to-use measures. The relatively simple structure of the estimated price models and their small data requirements lend themselves to use in price-forecasting applications in conjunction with market analysis of supply and demand conditions. Questions regarding the report should be directed to the authors: Linwood Hoffman (202) 694-5298 and Paul Westcott (202) 694-5335. The report may viewed and/or downloaded from the following Internet site: http://www.econ.ag.gov/epubs/pdf/tb1878/ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,233 3 9,662 383 1,890 487 2,759 6,903 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,903 --- 2 6,905 394 1,492 525 2,411 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 465 1,103 433 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 450 814 353 1,617 883 2.49 Mkt. yr. 426 9,233 13 9,672 1,692 5,299 1,797 8,789 883 2.71 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,207 2 10,092 429 2,036 380 2,845 7,247 2.53 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 1 7,248 418 1,510 380 2,308 4,940 2.55 Mar-May 4,940 --- 4 4,944 464 1,089 350 1,904 3,040 2.45 Jun-Aug 3,040 --- 2 3,042 470 870 394 1,734 1,308 2.12 Mkt. yr. 883 9,207 9 10,099 1,782 5,505 1,504 8,791 1,308 2.43 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,761 4 11,073 444 2,127 450 3,021 8,052 1.91 Dec-Feb 8,052 --- 6 8,058 427 1,467 465 2,359 5,698 2.04 Mar-May 5,698 --- 8 5,707 489 1,097 505 2,091 3,616 2.04 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,761 20 11,089 1,845 5,575 1,950 9,370 1,719 1.95 1999/00 Mkt. yr.1,719 9,561 10 11,290 1,910 5,575 1,925 9,410 1,880 1.70-2.10 SORGHUM 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 795 0 814 15 276 56 346 467 2.45 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 15 119 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 10 85 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 6 37 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 795 0 814 45 516 205 766 47 2.34 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 634 0 681 18 239 49 307 374 2.26 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 18 38 83 139 235 2.24 Mar-May 235 --- 0 235 12 71 55 139 96 2.16 Jun-Aug 96 --- 0 96 6 17 24 47 49 2.08 Mkt. yr. 47 634 0 681 55 365 212 632 49 2.21 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 178 41 234 335 1.68 Dec-Feb 335 --- 0 335 15 34 64 113 222 1.70 Mar-May 222 --- 0 222 10 47 50 106 116 1.72 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 270 190 505 64 1.70 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 64 588 0 652 55 325 200 580 72 1.40-1.80 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Jun-Aug 100 392 9 501 44 136 7 187 314 3.11 Sep-Nov 314 --- 8 322 39 25 12 76 246 2.74 Dec-Feb 246 --- 8 254 37 38 7 82 173 2.55 Mar-May 173 --- 11 184 53 18 4 75 109 2.33 Mkt. yr. 100 392 37 529 172 217 31 419 109 2.74 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 360 12 482 44 87 24 155 327 2.31 Sep-Nov 327 --- 7 334 39 12 39 90 244 2.45 Dec-Feb 244 --- 8 252 37 29 6 72 180 2.42 Mar-May 180 --- 13 193 53 16 5 74 119 2.26 Mkt. yr. 109 360 40 510 172 144 74 390 119 2.38 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 153 326 2.02 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 16 8 63 271 1.97 Dec-Feb 271 --- 6 277 37 32 7 76 201 1.90 Mar-May 201 --- 9 210 51 13 5 69 141 1.84 Mkt. yr. 119 352 30 501 170 162 28 361 141 1.95 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 141 281 35 457 172 120 30 322 135 1.70-2.10 OATS 1996/97 Jun-Aug 66 153 6 226 24 69 1.0 94 132 2.08 Sep-Nov 132 --- 39 171 22 22 0.8 45 126 1.84 Dec-Feb 126 --- 28 154 20 37 0.3 58 96 1.79 Mar-May 96 --- 24 120 28 25 0.4 53 67 1.88 Mkt. yr. 66 153 97 317 95 153 2.5 250 67 1.96 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 167 19 253 24 74 0.4 98 155 1.62 Sep-Nov 155 --- 38 193 22 26 0.7 49 144 1.54 Dec-Feb 144 --- 26 170 21 38 0.5 59 111 1.59 Mar-May 111 --- 15 127 28 24 0.5 53 74 1.60 Mkt. yr. 67 167 98 332 95 161 2.1 258 74 1.60 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 167 28 269 24 83 0.5 107 162 1.15 Sep-Nov 162 --- 36 198 22 32 0.4 54 143 1.08 Dec-Feb 143 --- 22 166 21 32 0.5 53 113 1.20 Mar-May 113 --- 22 134 28 25 0.3 53 81 1.23 Mkt. yr. 74 167 108 349 95 171 1.7 267 81 1.15 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 81 162 100 343 96 165 2.0 263 80 .90-1.30 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1996/97 Sep-Nov 48.0 7.0 0.5 0.4 56.0 -2.1 53.9 Dec-Feb 37.9 3.0 0.8 0.6 42.4 0.8 43.2 Mar-May 28.0 2.1 0.4 0.4 31.0 -0.7 30.3 Jun-Aug 20.7 0.9 1.9 1.1 24.6 9.6 34.2 Mkt. yr. 134.6 13.1 3.6 2.6 154.0 7.7 161.6 85.3 1.89 % Change 12.6 74.8 -17.9 1.3 14.8 24.8 15.3 0.4 14.8 1997/98 Sep-Nov 51.7 6.1 0.3 0.5 58.5 -3.1 55.5 Dec-Feb 38.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 40.6 0.0 40.6 Mar-May 27.7 1.8 0.3 0.4 30.2 0.3 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.1 0.4 2.2 1.3 26.0 11.6 37.7 Mkt. yr. 139.8 9.3 3.4 2.8 155.3 8.9 164.2 87.9 1.87 % Change 3.9 -29.3 -5.4 7.3 0.9 15.5 1.6 3.0 -1.4 1998/99 Sep-Nov 54.0 4.5 0.3 0.6 59.4 -2.0 57.4 Dec-Feb 37.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 39.4 0.3 39.7 Mar-May 27.9 1.2 0.3 0.4 29.7 1.0 30.8 Mkt. yr. 141.6 6.9 2.6 2.8 153.9 10.2 164.1 88.5 1.85 % Change 1.3 -26.0 -23.4 1.0 -0.9 15.2 -0.0 0.7 -0.7 1999/00 Mkt. yr. 141.6 8.3 3.0 2.7 155.6 7.5 163.1 88.4 1.84 % Change 0.0 20.4 15.6 -4.8 1.1 -26.8 -0.7 -0.1 -0.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 Monthly: 1998: Mar 2.59 2.89 4.85 5.00 1.51 NQ 1.65 Apr 2.41 2.71 4.62 4.69 1.42 NQ 1.54 May 2.37 2.69 4.60 4.58 NQ NQ 1.58 Jun 2.29 2.64 4.65 4.32 NQ NQ 1.52 1999: Mar 2.09 2.45 3.85 4.16 NQ NQ 1.35 Apr 2.05 2.39 3.78 4.06 NQ NQ 1.36 May 2.03 2.35 3.67 3.94 NQ NQ 1.39 Jun 1.99 2.36 3.61 3.86 NQ NQ 1.34 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. NQ = No quote.Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 Monthly: 1998: Mar 165.30 128.70 69.30 270.50 171.10 107.80 81.00 102.00 Apr 152.75 116.25 64.00 238.10 161.60 87.00 59.25 105.00 May 150.30 105.00 64.60 236.25 158.10 85.50 55.50 107.00 Jun 157.80 126.00 61.90 225.60 161.80 81.00 57.90 96.50 1999: Mar 127.20 106.90 56.00 198.00 124.50 92.00 68.50 82.40 Apr 128.60 110.90 54.25 192.50 128.70 92.00 54.10 85.60 May 127.00 108.75 56.90 201.25 129.60 84.00 41.40 95.70 Jun 131.70 114.50 57.90 209.50 137.10 87.00 45.70 85.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. Table 5--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1996/97 Sep-Nov 113.2 60.0 55.0 91.9 29.0 33.6 382.6 Dec-Feb 110.7 56.3 55.1 106.2 33.0 33.2 394.4 Mar-May 134.8 64.0 59.5 119.2 34.0 33.9 445.4 Jun-Aug 145.1 65.5 59.1 111.4 34.0 33.9 449.0 Mkt year 503.8 245.8 228.6 428.7 130.0 134.6 1,671.5 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 116.1 33.2 34.0 429.1 Dec-Feb 116.8 56.2 56.7 122.2 32.8 33.6 418.3 Mar-May 139.4 60.7 58.3 118.3 33.5 34.4 444.5 Jun-Aug 153.4 64.7 58.9 124.6 33.5 34.4 469.4 Mkt year 532.3 244.9 233.5 481.1 133.0 136.5 1,761.2 1998/99 Sep-Nov 127.6 60.5 57.8 132.4 31.1 34.5 443.8 Dec-Feb 120.8 52.0 54.7 132.9 32.5 34.1 427.1 Mar-May 145.4 60.0 57.1 138.8 34.0 34.8 470.1 Mkt year 555.0 235.0 230.0 540.0 127.0 138.2 1,825.2 1999/00 Mkt year 570.0 240.0 240.0 570.0 129.9 140.0 1,889.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 4/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 94/95 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 Monthly 1998: Apr 15.74 11.64 30.65 7.25 13.96 May 15.69 11.59 30.65 7.25 13.57 Jun 15.67 11.57 30.65 7.20 13.39 Jul 15.27 11.27 30.65 7.05 12.88 1999: Apr 15.22 11.12 15.75 8.45 11.98 May 15.18 11.08 16.38 8.45 12.07 Jun 2/ 15.20 11.10 16.38 8.45 11.92 Jul 3/ 14.66 10.56 16.38 8.45 11.83 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Revised. 3/ Preliminary. 4/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Mkt. yr. Jun-May ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,441 1,282 1,142 Finland 99 161 216 Sweden 140 176 443 Total 1/ 1,681 1,696 1,856 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 608 733 567 Total 1/ 608 733 567 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 192 112 81 Total 1/ 192 143 81 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Sep-May Mkt. yr. Sep-May Sep-May ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 14,821 11,662 14,581 11,098 11,060 Taiwan 5,482 4,311 3,801 3,053 3,072 Former USSR 184 123 23 22 209 South Africa 81 81 0 0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 272 228 336 315 197 EU 1,704 1,356 147 7 192 Egypt 2,292 1,731 1,808 1,179 2,134 Canada 833 712 1,423 1,069 516 China 53 53 212 53 154 East Europe 385 385 19 19 12 Algeria 869 687 861 637 699 S. Korea 5,369 4,884 3,593 2,279 4,418 Mexico 3,155 2,379 4,116 2,984 4,360 Others 10,081 8,024 7,196 5,396 8,780 Total 45,581 36,615 38,117 28,110 35,803 SORGHUM Mexico 2,111 1,854 3,222 2,715 2,346 Japan 2,102 1,744 1,650 1,584 1,123 Others 948 825 463 421 405 Total 5,161 4,423 5,334 4,720 3,873 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1996/97--- ------1997/98------ 1998/99 Mkt. yr. Mkt. yr. Jun-May BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 88 922 0 Israel 28 0 0 Jordan 50 53 0 Japan 175 290 422 Mexico 182 124 94 Taiwan 35 94 0 Other 220 135 99 Total 670 1,617 615 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE