FEED OUTLOOK October 16, 2001 October 2001 FDS-1001 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831, issues FEED OUTLOOK 11 times a year. Electronic release only, no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 was released on April 25, 2001. Yearbooks are available in print from USDA Order Desk. For the 2001 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-2001, $21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Feed Grain Supplies Down 3 Percent from Last Year, Ending Stocks To Decline. Feed grain production is down from last year because of smaller corn, barley and oats crops. Corn production is expected to total 9.4 billion bushels, down 5 percent from 2000. Lower yields and harvested acres caused the change. Corn use is expected to remain strong boosted by increased ethanol production, exports, and continued strong feed and residual use. Sorghum production is expected to be up from last year, with increased harvested acreage and increased yields. However, with reduced carry-in and continued strong exports, ending stocks will remain low. Production of both barley and oats is down significantly from 2000/01. A large drop in harvested area is the primary cause of the year-to-year production decline for both crops. Yields are also down from last year. Production was hampered by weather problems that extended up into Canada. The Canadian barley and oats crops are also down significantly from 2000/01, which has lowered the amount available for import by the United States. As a result of lower production, barley ending stocks are projected to decline 21 percent to 84 million bushels, and oats ending stocks are projected down 25 percent to nearly 55 million bushels, the lowest on official record. Prices have also risen from last year and are at the highest level since 1997/98 for both crops. World coarse grain production in 2001/02 is expected to increase slightly from the previous years low level. Global corn production in 2001/02 is expected to decline because of the lower U.S. crop. Global coarse grain use is expected to grow faster than production, reducing world stocks to the lowest since 1995/96. Feed Grain Supply Decreases from Last Month U.S. feed grain production in 2001 is forecast at 260 million tons, up 4 million from a month ago but down 14 million from 2000. Feed grain supply in 2001/02 is forecast at 315 million tons, up almost 4 million from last month, but down 10 million from 2000/01. Beginning stocks are down from last month, but up 4 million from the previous year. Imports primarily from Canada were lowered this month because of weather-reduced crops in Canada. Continued strong use in 2001/02 will result in a year-over-year decline in ending stocks. Total feed grain use is projected at 274 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month and up 1.2 million from 2000/01. Domestic use is projected almost unchanged from last month but down less than 1 percent from the 216 million in 2000/01. Feed and residual use in 2001/02 is expected to total 158 million metric tons, about unchanged from last month but down 2 percent from a year ago because of a slight upward revision in last years use. On a September-August marketing year basis, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2001/02 is projected to total 164 million tons, down from 2000/01's 166 million. Corn is estimated to account for 90 percent of feed and residual use in 2001/02, the same as in 2000/01. The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU) for 2001/02 is essentially the same as 2000/01's 89.2 million units. Feed and residual used per GCAU in 2001/02 is 1.85 tons, down from 1.86 in 2000/01. In the index components for 2001/02, GCAUs for poultry and hogs are up, but dairy and beef are slightly lower. The September Hogs and Pigs report indicates that producers are gearing up for expansion. Hog producers indicated intentions to farrow 1 percent more sows in September-November and 3 percent more in December-February. As a result, pork production was increased nearly 2 percent for 2002. Corn Production Forecast Raised 2 Percent from Last Month Corn production in 2001 is forecast at 9.4 billion bushels, up 191 million from last month, but down 539 million from 2000. The average corn yield is forecast at 136.3 bushels per acre, compared with last months 133.5 and the actual 2000 yield of 137.1 bushels. Corn supplies are up 152 million bushels as carryin stocks were 39 million less than expected. Projected corn feed and residual use is unchanged this month because of the upward revision in last years use and nearly the same number of GCAUs. Corn exports for 2001/02 were increased 75 million bushels to 2,050 million because of larger global exports and reduced competition. Corn used in the production of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) was reduced this month for 2001/02 and reduced for 2000/01. For 2001/02, HFCS production is expected to increase 1 percent from 2000/01s 537 million bushels. For all of 2000/01, corn used to produce HFCS was down less than 1 percent from 1999/2000, the first year-to-year reduction since 1980. Corn used to make glucose and dextrose was also down less than 1 percent and starch use was down 1 percent. Corn used to make ethanol was up 11 percent from the prior year, as new plants came into production and ethanol demand remained strong. For 2001/02, ethanol production is expected to increase another 8 percent from last year. With corn use up less than supplies, ending stocks for 2001/02 are forecast up 97 million bushels and prices are lower. The forecast price for 2001/02 is $1.90-$2.30 per bushel, down from last months $1.95-$2.35. In 2000/01, the season-average price received by farmers is expected to be $1.85. Sorghum Supplies Raised 20 Million Bushels to 578 Million Sorghum production was lowered fractionally to 536 million bushels due to a slight decrease in yields, which are now projected at 61 bushels per acre. Harvested area remains projected at 8.8 million acres. However, production is up 14 percent from last years weather-damaged crop because of increased area. Ending stocks for 2000/01 were reported at 42 million bushels, resulting in 2001/02 beginning stocks increasing 22 million bushels from last month. Total supply was raised 20 million bushels to 578 million, 8 percent above a year earlier. The only change on the use side was a 15-million-bushel increase in feed and residual to 240 million, a result of increased supplies. Back-year changes were also made for exports and feed and residual. For the current crop year, food, seed, and industrial remains projected at 45 million bushels, 10 million larger than 2000/01. Exports are projected at 240 million bushels, unchanged from last years revised level. Ending stocks were raised 5 million bushels to 53 million, 26 percent above last years revised level. The stocks-to-use ratio was raised almost 1 full percentage point to 10 percent, above the 8.5 percent from 2000/01. Due to larger sorghum and other feed grain supplies, the season-average farm price was lowered 10 cents on both the high and low ends to $1.85-$2.25. Barley Production Lowered 12 Million Bushels The 2001/02 barley crop is estimated at 250 million bushels (published in the September 28 Small Grains Summary), down nearly 12 million from the previous forecast and 69 million below a year earlier. This is the lowest level of barley production since 1953. The year-to-year decline is the result of an 18-percent drop in harvested area and a 5-percent decline in yield. On a monthly basis, yields were raised fractionally to 58.2 bushels per acre, but harvested area was lowered 225,000 acres to 4.29 million. North Dakota continued as the top barley producing State, followed by Idaho, Montana, Washington, and Colorado. Imports were lowered 5 million bushels to 25 million, 14 percent lower than a year earlier and the lowest since 1992/93. Low barley imports are caused mainly by weather problems in Canada that have significantly reduced production and lowered malting quality. This, along with the smaller production, lowered total supply 17 million bushels to 381 million, 17 percent below a year earlier. The only change on the use side was a 5-million-bushel reduction in feed and residual to 95 million. Total barley utilization is now forecast at 297 million bushels, 16 percent below last year. Ending stocks were lowered 12 million bushels to 84 million, and the stocks-to-use ratio was lowered to 28 percent from 32 percent. Barley price was lowered 5 cents on each end to remain projected at $2.10-$2.50, above the $2.11 from last year. Oats Crop Reduced to Record Low The 2001/02 oats crop is estimated at 117 million bushels (published in the September 28 Small Grains Summary), down nearly 19 million from its previous forecast and 33 million from a year earlier. This is the lowest oats crop on record. The year-to-year decline is the result of a 424,000-acre drop in harvested area to 1.9 million acres and a 5-percent decline in yields to 61.3 bushels per acre. This is the lowest level of harvested area on record and follows an almost continuous decline since the 1950s. On a monthly basis, area harvested was lowered 281,000 acres and yields were lowered 1 percent. North Dakota emerged this year as the largest oats producing State, followed by Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Imports were lowered 5 million bushels to 90 million, 15 percent lower than 2000/01. The expected year-to-year decline in oats imports is caused by weather problems in Canada. Total oats supply was lowered 23 million bushels to 280 million, down 16 percent from 2000/01. On the use side, feed and residual was lowered 10 million bushels to 155 million. This lowered total use to 225 million bushels, 34 million lower than last year. Ending stocks were lowered 13 million bushels to 54.6 million. The stocks-to-use ratio was lowered nearly 5 percentage points to 24 percent. Prices remain estimated at $1.15-$1.45, well above the $1.10 from last year and the highest since 1997/98. For August 2001, the United States Department of Agricultures (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service reports the oats farm price at $1.26, up from $0.94 a year earlier. By comparison, USDAs Agricultural Marketing Service reports the week ending August 16 that Minnesota oats prices for #2 or better were nearly $1.67, up about 50 cents from August 2000. The Minnesota #2 or better price for the week ending October 13 is reported at about $2.19, up nearly 80 cents from last year. All-Hay Production To Increase All-hay production in 2001 is forecast at 162 million tons, up 10 million from 2000. The all-hay yield is expected to be 2.54 tons per acre, the same as last year. Acreage harvested of all hay was unchanged, but 7 percent larger than 2000. Alfalfa hay production, at 82 million tons, increased 2 percent from 2000. Yields are expected to average 3.44 tons per acre, up 0.06 ton from the August forecast, but down 0.04 ton from last year. Area harvested is unchanged from August at 23.8 million acres, but up 3 percent from 2000. Other hay production is forecast at a record 81 million tons, up 3 percent from the August forecast and 12 percent higher than last year. Area harvested is also unchanged from August at 40 million acres, but up 9 percent from last year's total. Yields are expected to average 2.01 tons per acre, up 0.06 ton above both the August forecast and last year. With hay production up but beginning stocks down, hay supplies are up per roughage consuming animal unit (RCAU). Hay supplies are 2.54 tons, up from 2.50 in 2000/01. RCAUs in 2001/02 are estimated to be down less than 1 percent from 2000/01. Even with additional supplies, hay prices have been stronger in 2001/02. Prices received by farmers for all hay averaged $99.08 per ton in May-September 2001, up from $82.08 in 2000. Alfalfa hay prices in May-September averaged $106.50 per ton, up from $87.26 in 2000. Prices received by farmers for hay other than alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures averaged $73.45 per ton during May- September, up from $69.30 in 2000. LDPs Decline from 2000/01 The 1996 Farm Act contained key policy tools to assist farmers when market prices are low. The key provisions are the nonrecourse marketing assistance loans and loan deficiency payments (LDPs). Producers that entered into Production Flexibility Contracts with USDA are eligible to participate in these programs. Prices have recovered somewhat from 2000/01, and program participation is less than it was a year ago. As of October 12, 2001, eligible corn producers collected $50 million in LDPs covering 367 million bushels or about 4 percent of the crop compared with 12 percent of the crop at this time last year. The average payment rate was almost 14 cents per bushel on 44,273 contracts. For the entire 2000 crop, 83 percent received an LDP, and the average payment rate was nearly 29 cents per bushel. For the 2001/02 sorghum crop, producers have collected $113,000 in LDPs covering over 3 million bushels or about 0.6 percent of production compared with 32 percent of the crop at this time last year. The average payment rate was about 3.5 cents per bushel on 685 contracts. In 2000, 61 percent of the sorghum crop received an LDP, and the average payment rate was 28 cents per bushel. For barley, producers have collected over $10 million in LDPs covering 82 million bushels or about 33 percent of production compared with 49 percent of the crop this time last year. The average payment rate was about 13 cents per bushel on 13,897 contracts. For the 2000 crop, 77 percent received an LDP. Oats producers have collected $1.5 million in LDPs covering more than 10 million bushels or about 9 percent of production compared with 59 percent of the crop this time last year. The average payment rate was 14 cents per bushel on 3,077 contracts. For the 2000 oats crop, virtually all received an LDP, and the average payment rate was about 29 cents per bushel. International Forecast 2001/02 global coarse grain production increased 8 million tons this month and foreign production was boosted nearly 4 million. Production in the countries of the former Soviet Union increased 5 million tons and Chinas prospects were boosted 3 million. These increases more than offset reduced prospects for several important exporting countries, including Canada, Argentina, Hungary, and the European Union (EU). The reduced planting prospects for Argentina are especially important because the reduced competition helped boost U.S. corn exports. Moreover, global corn import demand is forecast up this month led by Canadas increased corn imports. The U.S. 2001/02 October- September corn export forecast increased 1 million tons this month to 52 million. Estimated 2000/01 U.S. corn exports are 48 million tons, up 0.5 million from last months forecast because of stronger than expected shipments late in the year. Foreign Stocks Decline More Than Offsets Increased Production this Month While the foreign 2001/02 production forecast increased 3.7 million tons this month, beginning stocks dropped 4.4 million, leaving supplies slightly tighter than forecast a month ago. Estimated EU coarse grain consumption in 2000/01 was increased 3.0 million tons this month, reducing carryover stocks 3.5 million. Canadas reported 2000/01 coarse grain ending stocks were lower than forecast. The EU 2001/02 coarse grain production forecast dropped 0.9 million tons this month because of reduced corn production prospects in Greece and France. The reduced coarse grain carryin stocks and sharply lower 2001 crops of coarse grain and wheat in the EU have raised internal grain prices, and the Commission has been reluctant to subsidize grain exports because it would drive internal grain prices higher. Even with the EU 2001/02 coarse grain export forecast down 1 million tons this month, ending stocks are projected down to 17.4 million, the lowest since 1996/97. Canadas 2001/02 coarse grain production forecast dropped 1.6 million tons partly because harvest surveys indicate smaller than expected corn, barley, oats, and rye production. Most of the drop was in corn production, where prospects dropped 1.0 million tons, hurt by a dry growing season in Ontario. Even with corn imports forecast up 0.5 million tons this month to 3 million tons, maintaining Canadas 2001/02 consumption at last years level requires coarse grain ending stocks to drop to 2.8 million tons, the lowest since 1961/62. Eastern Europes coarse grain production prospects declined over 1 million tons this month. Harvest reports indicate lower barley, oats, and rye production in Poland. Also cold, wet weather during September in Hungary did not allow the corn crop to reach as good yields as earlier expected, reducing corn production prospects 0.5 million tons. While lower coarse grain consumption in Eastern Europe is forecast this month, the reduced production is causing lower projected ending stocks as well. Foreign 2001/02 coarse grain ending stocks are only forecast down about 1 million tons this month because the aforementioned declines are mostly offset by developments in China and the former Soviet Union. Coarse grain production in the former Soviet Union is forecast up 5 million tons this month as harvest reports indicate bigger crops in Russia and Ukraine. Ukraines barley crop is expected to reach 10.0 million tons, up 2.0 million from a month ago. Ukraines rye increased as well. Russias barley production forecast increased 1.5 million tons to 17.5 million, and oats increased 1.0 million to 7.0 million. Forecast barley exports from both countries increased this month, but increases in domestic use are limited because animal numbers have been reduced so much in previous years. This leaves 2001/02 former Soviet Union coarse grain ending stocks forecast up 2.7 million tons this month. Chinas 2001/02 corn production prospects increased 3 million tons this month to 108 million. Despite an early freeze in parts of Northeast China, and severe dryness during August and September in parts of the North China Plain, forecast corn production was increased on the basis of crop travel and other indications that the larger area means that overall corn production prospects are slightly better than a year earlier. While expected, Chinas corn use increased this month, the ending stocks forecast increased 2 million tons. While Chinas projected 2001/02 coarse grain ending stocks of 62 million tons are up nearly 2 million this month, they are still down nearly 20 million tons from estimated stocks a year earlier. This year-to-year drop in Chinas stocks still dominates foreign coarse grain stock changes. Foreign coarse grain ending stocks in 2001/02 are forecast down almost a million tons this month to less than 118 million tons. This is the lowest foreign coarse grain stocks since 1985/86. Tight Foreign Supplies Boost U.S. Corn Export Prospects Forecast U.S. 2001/02 corn exports increased 1.0 million tons to 52 million this month. A key factor boosting U.S. export prospects was a 0.5-million-ton decline in Argentinas corn production and exports. Corn planting is underway, and recent expectations are expanding soybean plantings and will reduce corn area. Canadas increased corn import prospects are also boosting U.S. export prospects this month. Import prospects are increased for many smaller importers because a detailed examination of the 2000/01 export data indicated these countries imports were much higher than previously forecast. ***************************************************************** Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 William Chambers (202) 694-5312 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 The next Feed Outlook will be released November 14, 2001. ***************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price -------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1999/00 Sep-Nov 1,787 9,431 4 11,221 459 2,189 534 3,182 8,039 1.71 Dec-Feb 8,039 --- 3 8,043 447 1,526 468 2,441 5,602 1.91 Mar-May 5,602 --- 6 5,607 512 1,059 451 2,021 3,586 2.05 Jun-Aug 3,586 --- 2 3,588 496 890 485 1,871 1,718 1.64 Mkt. yr.1,787 9,431 15 11,232 1,913 5,664 1,937 9,515 1,718 1.82 2000/01 Sep-Nov 1,718 9,968 1 11,687 466 2,192 506 3,165 8,522 1.76 Dec-Feb 8,522 --- 1 8,523 465 1,599 416 2,480 6,043 1.97 Mar-May 6,043 --- 3 6,046 524 1,142 456 2,122 3,924 1.90 Jun-Aug 3,924 --- 2 3,926 512 953 562 2,027 1,899 1.85 Mkt. yr.1,718 9,968 7 11,693 1,967 5,887 1,940 9,794 1,899 1.85 2001/02 Mkt. yr.1,899 9,430 10 11,338 2,030 5,800 2,050 9,880 1,458 1.90-2.30 SORGHUM 1999/00 Sep-Nov 65 595 0 660 18 228 65 311 349 1.45 Dec-Feb 349 --- 0 349 18 29 77 124 226 1.57 Mar-May 226 --- 0 226 13 22 64 99 127 1.82 Jun-Aug 127 --- 0 127 6 6 50 62 65 1.64 Mkt. yr. 65 595 0 660 55 284 256 595 65 1.57 2000/01 Sep-Nov 65 470 0 535 17 195 62 274 261 1.72 Dec-Feb 261 --- 0 261 11 11 72 94 167 1.94 Mar-May 167 --- 0 167 4 24 63 91 76 1.80 Jun-Aug 76 --- 0 76 3 (12) 43 35 42 2.02 Mkt. yr. 65 470 0 535 35 219 240 494 42 1.88 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 42 536 0 578 45 240 240 525 53 1.85- 2.25 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price -------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1999/00 Jun-Aug 142 280 6 428 44 79 9 132 295 2.18 Sep-Nov 295 --- 5 300 39 24 10 73 228 2.04 Dec-Feb 228 --- 9 237 37 23 7 67 170 2.14 Mar-May 170 --- 7 178 52 10 4 66 111 2.19 Mkt. yr. 142 280 28 450 172 136 30 338 111 2.13 2000/01 Jun-Aug 111 319 7 437 44 91 8 143 294 2.28 Sep-Nov 294 --- 5 299 39 6 25 70 229 1.95 Dec-Feb 229 --- 8 237 37 22 16 75 162 2.10 Mar-May 162 --- 9 171 52 4 8 65 106 2.08 Mkt. yr. 111 319 29 459 172 123 58 353 106 2.11 2001/02 Jun-Aug 106 250 8 364 44 65 9 118 245 2.25 Mkt. yr. 106 250 25 381 172 95 30 297 84 2.05- 2.45 OATS 1999/00 Jun-Aug 81 146 22 249 17 84 0.6 101 148 1.05 Sep-Nov 148 --- 34 182 16 32 0.3 49 134 1.08 Dec-Feb 134 --- 23 157 14 40 0.2 55 102 1.22 Mar-May 102 --- 20 122 21 24 0.7 46 76 1.31 Mkt. yr. 81 146 99 326 68 180 1.8 250 76 1.12 2000/01 Jun-Aug 76 150 21 247 17 79 0.4 96 150 1.03 Sep-Nov 150 --- 37 187 16 27 0.5 43 144 1.04 Dec-Feb 144 --- 28 172 14 48 0.5 62 110 1.22 Mar-May 110 --- 20 130 21 36 0.4 57 73 1.27 Mkt. yr. 76 150 106 332 68 189 1.7 259 73 1.10 2001/02 Jun-Aug 73 117 20 210 17 77 0.7 94 116 1.30 Mkt. yr. 73 117 90 280 68 155 2.0 225 55 1.15- 1.45 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1999/00 Sep-Nov 55.6 5.8 0.5 0.6 62.5 -0.2 62.3 Dec-Feb 38.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 40.6 0.8 41.4 Mar-May 26.9 0.6 0.2 0.4 28.1 -0.3 27.8 Jun-Aug 22.6 0.1 2.0 1.2 25.9 8.8 34.8 Mkt. yr. 143.9 7.2 3.2 2.8 157.1 9.1 166.2 88.8 1.87 2000/01 Sep-Nov 55.7 5.0 0.1 0.5 61.3 -0.6 60.6 Dec-Feb 40.6 0.3 0.5 0.8 42.2 0.1 42.3 Mar-May 29.0 0.6 0.1 0.6 30.3 -0.2 30.1 Jun-Aug 24.2 -0.3 1.4 1.2 26.5 6.5 33.0 Mkt. yr. 149.5 5.6 2.1 3.0 160.2 5.8 166.0 89.2 1.86 2001/02 Mkt. yr. 147.3 6.1 2.2 2.4 158.0 6.4 164.4 89.1 1.85 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. Table 3--Cash feed grain prices -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 98/99 1.97 2.35 3.78 3.97 1.23 2.30 1.34 99/00 1.86 2.23 3.36 3.79 NQ NQ 1.26 00/01 3/ 1.91 2.29 3.87 4.35 1.47 2.37 NQ Monthly: 2000: May 2.15 2.43 3.49 4.27 NQ NQ NQ Jun 1.83 2.13 3.00 3.60 NQ NQ NQ Jul 1.53 1.91 3.37 3.34 NQ NQ NQ Aug 1.49 1.91 2.88 3.46 NQ NQ NQ 2001: May 1.78 2.14 3.86 4.29 1.50 2.41 NQ Jun 1.76 2.11 4.01 4.06 1.50 NQ NQ Jul 1.92 2.30 4.28 4.22 1.49 NQ NQ Aug 3/ 2.00 2.36 4.28 4.34 1.49 2.35 NQ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists. Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------$/ton------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 98/99 130.56 109.86 59.87 234.76 137.32 84.87 54.74 88.10 99/00 158.15 124.00 52.89 237.31 163.13 82.93 53.13 80.20 00/01 166.70 144.38 58.92 250.34 177.19 84.93 61.77 NQ Monthly: 2000: May 180.10 123.25 51.10 240.00 181.33 92.00 49.16 95.00 Jun 170.18 130.63 48.80 223.75 174.64 76.00 49.00 85.70 Jul 156.84 131.88 45.25 218.75 173.45 81.00 42.53 84.50 Aug 151.38 130.50 43.20 211.00 170.95 NQ 37.72 83.90 2001: May 155.58 137.50 52.10 231.00 136.78 88.40 42.93 113.00 Jun 163.10 126.88 54.75 237.50 152.85 75.00 53.28 103.00 Jul 183.90 120.20 59.30 205.50 182.69 75.00 63.60 105.00 Aug /3 170.63 130.63 65.38 263.75 190.21 75.00 69.10 105.00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ=No quote. Table 5--Corn: Food and industrial uses -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1999/00 Sep-Nov 129.3 56.7 63.6 131.7 31.8 46.0 459.2 Dec-Feb 119.4 49.6 60.0 138.3 33.3 46.0 446.6 Mar-May 141.7 57.1 63.7 147.9 34.9 46.5 491.9 Jun-Aug 149.2 58.4 63.8 147.8 29.7 46.5 495.4 Mkt year 539.5 221.9 251.1 565.8 129.7 185.0 1,893.0 2000/01 Sep-Nov 126.0 56.2 63.4 142.9 31.8 46.0 466.2 Dec-Feb 118.4 49.9 59.2 158.0 33.3 46.0 464.8 Mar-May 144.6 56.5 62.0 161.3 34.8 46.4 505.6 Jun-Aug 148.0 58.0 63.0 165.4 30.1 46.5 511.0 Mkt year 537.1 220.6 247.6 627.5 130.0 185.0 1,947.7 2001/02 Mkt year 543.0 220.0 250.0 680.0 131.0 186.0 2,010.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 98/99 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 12.28 99/00 15.05 10.91 16.38 9.18 12.39 00/01 2/ 15.84 11.74 16.83 9.25 12.44 Monthly 2000: Jun 15.29 10.25 16.38 9.25 13.36 Jul 14.72 11.07 16.38 9.25 12.76 Aug 14.62 10.52 16.38 9.25 12.04 Sep 14.92 10.82 16.38 9.25 11.71 2001: Jun 15.62 11.52 16.88 9.50 12.40 Jul 16.13 12.03 16.88 9.50 12.16 Aug 15.98 11.88 16.88 9.50 12.31 Sep 2/ 15.81 11.71 16.88 9.50 12.46 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Source: Milling and Baking News. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country/region ------1999/2000- ------2000/2001---- 2001/2002 Mkt. yr. June-July Mkt. yr. June-July June-July -------------------------------------------------------------------------- OATS --------------------Thousand tons------------------ Canada 1,287 125 1,466 132 117 Finland 125 24 103 0 84 Sweden 276 79 257 59 25 Total 1/ 1,703 227 1,827 191 226 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 543 84 585 105 134 Total 1/ 543 84 585 105 134 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 60 3 51 18 1 Total 1/ 60 3 51 18 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country/region ------1998/99--- ------1999/2000---- 2000/2001 Mkt. yr. Sep.-July Mkt. yr. Sep.-July Sep.-July -------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN Japan 15,224 13,821 15,149 13,881 13,049 Taiwan 4,365 3,987 5,036 4,760 4,316 Mexico 5,387 5,038 4,832 4,326 5,211 Egypt 3,586 3,248 3,790 3,172 3,599 S. Korea 6,462 5,851 3,134 2,759 2,541 Colombia 1,512 1,374 1,782 1,718 1,469 Saudi Arabia 1,182 1,087 1,164 1,037 896 Venezuela 1,288 1,176 1,073 976 1,072 Algeria 955 848 1,042 916 1,110 Dominican Republic 777 701 1,003 904 915 Canada 867 708 982 822 2,379 Turkey 692 672 874 856 568 Israel 399 380 695 600 578 Iran 0 0 611 551 144 Morocco 599 498 604 554 430 Syria 354 318 603 476 456 Chile 486 406 542 517 33 Tunisia 441 416 519 464 409 Sub-Saharan Africa 441 413 511 510 113 Former USSR 405 318 491 486 112 Peru 674 599 458 453 159 EU 192 192 141 125 17 China 259 259 58 58 0 East Europe 12 12 35 35 0 Others 3,667 3,227 3,967 3,373 3,917 Total 50,228 45,549 49,098 44,327 43,493 SORGHUM Mexico 3,103 2,831 4,824 4,377 4,662 Japan 1,362 1,272 1,123 1,062 772 EU 197 197 181 179 0 Others 237 236 239 195 171 Total 4,899 4,536 6,366 5,814 5,605 ------------------------------------------------------ ------1999/2000- ------2000/2001---- 2001/2002 Mkt. yr. June-July Mkt. yr. June-July June-July BARLEY ------------------------------------------------------ Japan 391 85 388 23 67 Mexico 104 18 113 6 2 Jordan 50 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia 0 0 416 40 0 Taiwan 5 0 57 0 0 Other 107 6 279 25 26 Total 657 109 1,253 94 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE