FEED OUTLOOK July 17, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS--0796. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: This release corrects two numbers in Table 2 of the the July 15, 1996, release of FEED OUTLOOK. Minor upward adjustments were made in the 1990/91 data under the column headings "Animal Units" and "Feed/Animal Unit." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Projected 1996 Corn Crop About Unchanged, Sorghum Production Up o Corn Disappearance in Third Quarter of 1995/96 Relatively Large o 1995/96 Corn Stocks Forecast Trimmed, Supplies Scarce Until New Harvest o Historical Corn Food and Industrial Use Revised 1996 FEED GRAIN PRODUCTION RAISED SLIGHTLY Output of U.S. feed grains in 1996 is projected at 261.7 million metric tons, up 1.5 million from last month due to an increase in sorghum area. There was a very slight drop in projected corn production. In addition, the first survey-based forecasts of barley and oats production were below June's projections, which were based on trend or average yields and March planting intentions. USDA will make its first survey-based forecasts for corn and sorghum in August. Changes in forecast feed grain use in 1996/97 were small this month. The main adjustment was an increase of 50 million bushels in feed and residual use of sorghum, with a corresponding decline of 50 million in the corn feed and residual. No changes were made in export forecasts, and the only adjustment in price forecasts was in sorghum. The outlook for 1996/97 remains fundamentally unchanged. Despite very low carryin stocks, feed grain production is expected to rebound 25 percent and boost supplies. High prices have created strong incentives to increase acreage, but price expectations for the new crop have remained high because of risk premiums that will likely persist until the crop is made. Feed grain use is expected to rise about 4 percent with more supplies. While ending stocks are projected to rise to 22.7 million tons from the forecast 12.2 million for 1995/96, they remain relatively low. CORN ACREAGE HIGHER, BUT PROJECTED YIELDS REDUCED Corn production is projected at 9,115 million bushels in 1996, down 10 million from last month. According to the Acreage report, corn plantings will reach 80.355 million acres, up from last month's projection of 79 million. However, an unusually large amount of land had not been planted at the time of the survey in early June because it was still too wet, particularly in Indiana and Ohio. Nationally, only 91 percent of the corn had been planted, compared with an average of 97 percent in 1990-94. In 1995, plantings had only reached 89 percent due to even more widespread problems with excessive moisture and flooding. USDA will resurvey farmers in a number of States in the second half of July, and these results will be released in the August Crop Production report. It is possible that farmers were not able to plant some fields at all or they switched some corn to soybeans. Projected corn yields were reduced 3 bushels per acre to 123 bushels, reflecting the impact of crop conditions as of early July. Conditions have generally been more favorable in the western Corn Belt than in the East. However, due to the lengthy planting period and uneven spring weather, there is a great deal of variation in the status of the crop. July temperatures and precipitation are critical in determining yields because July is when most of the crop enters the pollination stage. With much of the corn planted late, this stage could extend into early August in some areas. EXPECTED SORGHUM CROP UP SHARPLY, OATS AND BARLEY FORECASTS DOWN The forecast of 1996 sorghum production was raised 85 million bushels from last month to 760 million. This would be up 300 million bushels from the 1995 harvest. Plantings were raised about 1.5 million acres to nearly 12.6 million, based on the Acreage report. The increase was particularly dramatic in Kansas, where farmers indicated they were planting 1.4 million acres more than they intended in the spring--a 41-percent rise. This reflects both the strong feed grain market and substantial replanting of failed wheat acres. (In June, the national acreage projection had been raised 500,000 acres from planting intentions.) The first survey-based forecast of barley production is 394 million bushels, down 6 million from the previous projection. Acreage changed only slightly from intentions and forecast yields are down slightly from trend. Compared with last year, however, barley output will rise nearly 10 percent. Although planted area was up about 7 percent from 1995, competition for land with spring wheat probably limited the increase. Much of the barley crop was planted late, but growing conditions have been relatively favorable to date. Oats production in 1996 is forecast at 155 million bushels, a drop of 20 million from last month's projection because of lower acreage. Competition with other crops and weather delays probably account for some slippage in expected acres. Production is forecast down 4 percent from 1995's record low, and acres harvested for grain are forecast down 10 percent to 2.67 million, also the lowest on record. STOCKS DATA INDICATE LARGE MARCH-MAY CORN DISAPPEARANCE Corn stocks on June 1 were reported at 1,718 million bushels, half the level of a year earlier. Off-farm stocks totaled 938 million bushels, and those on farms were 780 million. This places estimated disappearance for March-May at 2,086 million bushels, somewhat higher than most analysts expected. This was the second highest March-May disappearance, trailing only 1994/95. (The preliminary breakout by category of use can be found in table 1, with some changes possible pending the release of final trade data for May.) With feed and residual use relatively high to date, the forecast for the 1995/96 year was raised 50 million bushels this month to 4,750 million. In addition, wheat feeding will be widespread this summer because of favorable relative prices. In many locations, prices for wheat are currently less than corn. Feed and residual use of wheat during June-August was increased 125 million bushels this month. Demand for corn by both domestic and export buyers has been quite resilient in the face of soaring prices. During the remaining weeks of the 1995/96 year, limited availability of corn will contribute to record prices and lead to a slowdown in use. Small amounts of new-crop corn will be harvested and used before the start of the new marketing year on September 1, although all of the 1996 crop is considered to be harvested after September 1. 1995/96 FEED AND RESIDUAL USE FORECAST RAISED Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in 1995/96 is expected to total 141 million metric tons, up 3 percent from a month ago but down 15 percent from 166 million in 1994/95. The current prices for corn and wheat suggest higher wheat feed and residual use in the June-August quarter, forecast up 30 percent from the previous year. In 1996/97, feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat may increase 8 percent to 152 million tons. Feed and residual use per grain consuming animal unit (GCAU) in 1995/96 is expected to equal 1.65 tons, down 16 percent from 1994/95. In 1996/97, feed and residual per GCAU is expected to rise 10 percent to 1.8 tons. Current estimates of GCAU's for 1995/96 are still up slightly from last year, even though high grain prices have forced producers to postpone expansion plans, and, for some livestock categories, to cut back production. As a result, the estimate of GCAU's for 1996/97 is down 1 million units from the 85.5 million units expected for 1995/96. Declines in numbers of cattle on feed, hogs, and dairy cattle are expected, but poultry production is likely to be up slightly. The current strong prices for corn have forced many hog producers to rethink their production plans. The inventory of hogs and pigs kept for breeding on June 1 was reported down 5 percent from last year and the reported farrowing intentions for June-November 1996 were also down 3 percent from last year, but September-November intentions were only down 1 percent. Intentions can change but the pigs already farrowed will be fed and in December-May 1996 the pig crop was down 4 percent from last year. Thus, survey numbers suggest a decline in pork production. 1995/96 FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL USE OF CORN CUT Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1995/96 is expected to total 1,575 million bushels, 18 percent of total disappearance and down from 1,691 million bushels in 1994/95. The forecast for 1995/96 is down 25 million bushels from a month ago, mainly because of a 20-million-bushel cut in use for ethanol and also due to some technical data revisions explained later in this report. (New historical data are shown in tables 1, 2, and 6.) During September 1995-May 1996, FSI use totaled 1,203 million bushels, down from 1,257 million in the previous year. In 1996/97, with a larger corn crop and lower prices, FSI use--especially for ethanol--is expected to rebound from the depressed levels of this year and reach 1,680 million bushels, up 7 percent. Corn used for ethanol production in 1995/96 may total 395 million bushels, down 26 percent from last year. Higher corn prices have affected fuel ethanol producers, especially dry mill operations. In May 1996, ethanol production was reported at 46,000 barrels per day, down from 91,000 a year earlier. Production has been declining during the first three quarters of the corn marketing year, and production in September 1995-May 1996 was 19 percent lower than the same period the year before. With corn prices expected to stay strong and ethanol prices unable to rise to fully reflect costs because of competitive pressures, producers are expected to keep production low until the new-crop corn is available. In 1996/97, ethanol production is likely to rebound and use 450 million bushels, still below the 1994/95 peak of 533 million bushels. Corn used to make corn sweeteners continued to increase in the first three quarters of 1995/96. Corn used to make high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) was up 5 percent from the same period in 1994/95. New facilities have become operational, expanding output. Corn used to produce glucose and dextrose was up 3 percent in the first three quarters. With tight supplies of corn in June-August, production may be less than last year, resulting in a 2-percent increase for the marketing year. In 1996/97, glucose and dextrose production is expected to increase 4 percent from the current year. Corn used to make starch declined 4 percent from the year earlier in the first three quarters of 1995/96. Starch prices have been stronger and may have encouraged some switching to reduce use. However, if the economy stays strong as expected, use of corn for starch may be about the same as a year ago in June-August, leaving use for the full year down 3 percent from the 226 million bushels used in 1994/95. In 1995/96, corn used for beverage and manufacturing alcohol is expected to total 102 million bushels, down from 101 million last year. Current data are only available from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF) through December 1995 and showed a 50-percent increase in corn use for the September-November period. With high corn prices, use will likely slow, as in prior high-cost periods, and use is expected to drop significantly below a year earlier in the last half of the marketing year. If corn prices decline as expected in 1996/97, corn use in beverage and manufacturing alcohol will increase and could reach 110 million bushels. OLD-CROP CORN PRICES CONTINUE TO SET RECORDS; 1996/97 PRICE EXPECTATIONS REMAIN HIGH Cash prices for corn have exceeded $5.00 per bushel in much of the country so far in July. By July 11, Central Illinois cash prices hit $5.25, eclipsing the earlier high reached in mid-May. The average for June was $4.74, actually down a bit from May. Prices offered at many country elevators also were above $5.00 in early July, although sales by farmers are reportedly very slow. The July futures contract repeatedly set all-time highs recently, settling at a record $5.48 on July 12, but the volume of trades has been declining as the contract nears expiration. No changes were made in forecast farm prices for 1995/96 corn or sorghum. The preliminary price of corn received by farmers in June was $4.19 per bushel, up 5 cents from the month before. The preliminary farm price of sorghum was $4.21 in June, down 7 cents from May, and the first month-to-month decline since last August. The final season average farm price of all barley in 1995/96 was a record $2.89 per bushel, up from $2.03 the year before. The previous record was $2.81 in 1974/75. The final price for oats was $1.68 per bushel, up from $1.22 in 1994/95, and the highest since 1988/89. Futures prices for 1996/97 corn have generally moved upward in the last few weeks, albeit in a highly volatile pattern. The December contract reached the $3.80 range by July 12. This price could move sharply in either direction in the next few weeks in response to weather news. The forecast season average farm price of corn is unchanged this month at $2.90-$3.30 per bushel. In the face of larger supplies, the sorghum forecast was dropped 5 cents to $2.75- $3.15 per bushel. REVISIONS MADE IN CALCULATION OF FOOD AND INDUSTRIAL USES FSI data were revised this month following a review of the various use categories back to 1990/91. With publication of the final 1992 Census of Manufactures, changes have been made in estimates to reflect the reported numbers by Census. Changes have been made in the historical data for HFCS, glucose and dextrose, and starch, while changes in beverage and manufacturing alcohol also relied heavily on data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF). The net impact on total FSI use was small in the current and most recent 2 years, 5 million bushels or less, because of offsetting changes. (See tables for data.) For HFCS, these changes resulted in minor changes in the historical data and did not result in changing the expected use in 1995/96 and 1996/97 from those published last month. However, glucose and dextrose estimates dropped by 5 million bushels. A similar correction was made for starch. Percent changes in prior estimates of corn used for starch stayed about the same in the current estimates but the magnitudes declined. For beverage and manufacturing alcohol, the new series is much more variable and it is around 20 million bushels larger than previous estimates for recent years. Although licensed by the ATF as beverage plants, some of these plants have also produced fuel or manufacturing alcohol. This necessitated a revision in the data. While the Census of Manufacturers has previously published data on beverage industries, this past census broke out ethyl alcohol production by the organic chemical manufactures, including fuel alcohol from wet and dry milling along with pure (natural) alcohol. The Census data are within 1 percent of the ATF data, assuming denatured alcohol is 95 percent alcohol and pure alcohol in proof gallons is actually 185 proof. Because alcohol data are reported in proof gallons, tax gallons, and wine gallons, getting two sets of data to come close is not always easy. ATF has distinct legal definitions of proof and tax gallons, but in practice a proof gallon and a tax gallon are about the same, both 100 proof, 50 percent ethyl alcohol. While the alcohol production checks between ATF and Census, Census numbers on grains used in alcohol production are not available for the organic chemical category to compare with ATF numbers. The ATF data give production of various types of alcohol and total grains used. For alcohol and spirits 190 proof and over, there is a breakout of production by kind of materials used such as grain, fruit, or ethylene gas. Some simplifying assumptions were used to calculate use. Estimated corn used for beverage and manufacturing alcohol was calculated by taking grain needed and using corn's proportion of total grains as reported by ATF. Grain needed was the sum of estimated grain spirits over 190 proof, less net withdrawals for fuel, grain spirits less than 190 proof, and whiskey production converted to grain at 5.1 proof gallons per 56 pounds of grain. Finally, corn used to produce beer, as reported by ATF, continues to be included. ****************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 * * Transportation: T.Q. Hutchinson (202) 219-0391 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released August 13, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN -------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1990/91 Sep-Nov 1,344 7,934 1 9,279 337 1,622 381 2,339 6,940 2.20 Dec-Feb 6,940 --- 0 6,941 328 1,352 471 2,152 4,789 2.27 Mar-May 4,789 --- 1 4,790 381 963 454 1,798 2,992 2.40 Jun-Aug 2,992 --- 1 2,993 369 684 419 1,472 1,521 2.30 Mkt. yr. 1,344 7,934 3 9,282 1,415 4,621 1,725 7,761 1,521 2.28 1991/92 Sep-Nov 1,521 7,475 6 9,002 358 1,676 421 2,455 6,547 2.31 Dec-Feb 6,547 --- 4 6,552 360 1,269 362 1,991 4,561 2.40 Mar-May 4,561 --- 5 4,566 411 1,046 371 1,828 2,739 2.49 Jun-Aug 2,739 --- 3 2,742 393 819 430 1,642 1,100 2.31 Mkt. yr. 1,521 7,475 20 9,016 1,522 4,810 1,584 7,915 1,100 2.37 1992/93 Sep-Nov 1,100 9,477 1 10,578 368 1,816 488 2,672 7,906 2.04 Dec-Feb 7,906 --- 1 7,907 363 1,403 463 2,229 5,678 2.00 Mar-May 5,678 --- 2 5,680 410 1,150 411 1,971 3,709 2.13 Jun-Aug 3,709 --- 3 3,712 403 895 301 1,599 2,113 2.19 Mkt. yr. 1,100 9,477 7 10,584 1,544 5,264 1,663 8,471 2,113 2.07 1993/94 Sep-Nov 2,113 6,336 5 8,455 380 1,703 435 2,518 5,937 2.34 Dec-Feb 5,937 --- 8 5,945 376 1,243 330 1,949 3,996 2.71 Mar-May 3,996 --- 6 4,002 418 955 270 1,642 2,360 2.67 Jun-Aug 2,360 --- 1 2,361 418 800 293 1,511 850 2.35 Mkt. yr. 2,113 6,336 21 8,470 1,591 4,700 1,328 7,620 850 2.50 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 406 2,019 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 406 1,496 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 445 1,167 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 434 854 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 9.56 10,962 1,691 5,536 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 409 1,760 660 2,830 6,106 2.79 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 387 1,362 562 2,311 3,800 3.16 Mar-May 3,800 --- 5 3,805 406 1,086 595 2,086 1,718 Jun-Aug 1,718 --- 1 1,719 372 543 482 1,398 322 Mkt. yr. 1,558 7,374 15 8,947 1,575 4,750 2,300 8,625 322 3.15-3.25 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 322 9,115 10 9,447 1,680 5,000 2,100 8,780 667 2.90-3.30 SORGHUM 1993/94 Sep-Nov 175 534 0 709 2 222 39 263 446 2.22 Dec-Feb 446 --- 0 446 2 108 60 170 276 2.59 Mar-May 276 --- 0 276 3 82 64 148 128 2.39 Jun-Aug 128 --- 0 128 2 41 38 81 48 2.10 Mkt. yr. 175 534 0 709 8 453 202 662 48 2.31 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 2 209 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 79 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 2 66 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 2 42 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 7 395 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 2 175 54 231 301 2.88 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 163 3.26 Mar-May 163 --- 0 163 2 55 35 92 70 Jun-Aug 70 --- 0 70 2 (1) 35 35 35 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 7 300 190 497 35 3.20-3.30 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 35 760 0 795 7 485 210 702 93 2.75-3.15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY -----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Jun-Aug 151 398 3 552 43 92 15 150 403 1.91 Sep-Nov 403 --- 11 413 38 27 15 80 333 2.02 Dec-Feb 333 --- 24 357 38 83 12 133 224 2.19 Mar-May 224 --- 34 258 56 40 24 119 139 2.24 Mkt. yr. 151 398 71 621 175 241 66 482 139 1.99 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 43 122 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 38 30 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 56 22 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 175 226 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 359 12 484 43 111 17 171 313 2.53 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 29 11 78 243 2.80 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 38 15 20 73 178 3.18 Mar-May 178 --- 12 190 55 18 15 89 101 3.29 Mkt. yr. 113 359 40 512 175 174 62 411 101 2.89 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 101 394 45 539 175 220 35 430 109 2.75-3.15 OATS 1993/94 Jun-Aug 113 207 17 337 32 84 1.5 118 219 1.35 Sep-Nov 219 --- 35 254 29 30 0.7 60 194 1.33 Dec-Feb 194 --- 31 225 27 51 0.5 79 147 1.42 Mar-May 147 --- 24 170 37 28 0.2 65 106 1.39 Mkt. yr. 113 207 107 427 125 193 3.0 321 106 1.36 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 32 103 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 30 32 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 28 38 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 35 29 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 124 202 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 32 78 0.4 110 180 1.48 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 30 23 0.5 53 153 1.52 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 27 30 0.3 58 113 1.94 Mar-May 113 --- 9 121 34 20 0.5 55 66 2.21 Mkt. yr. 101 162 80 342 123 151 2 276 66 1.68 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 66 155 85 306 120 115 2 237 69 1.75-2.15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---------- Million metric tons ------------- Mil. Tons 1990/91 Sep-Nov 41.2 5.6 0.9 0.6 48.4 -1.0 47.3 Dec-Feb 34.4 3.0 0.9 0.9 39.1 2.8 41.9 Mar-May 24.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 26.4 0.5 26.9 Jun-Aug 17.4 1.0 2.4 1.8 22.5 9.8 32.3 Mkt. yr. 117.4 10.4 4.7 3.9 136.4 12.0 148.4 80.1 1.85 % Change 5.1 -20.8 21.8 -21.0 2.1 61.3 5.2 3.5 1.64 1991/92 Sep-Nov 42.6 5.8 0.9 0.5 49.7 -0.7 48.9 Dec-Feb 32.2 2.3 1.2 0.9 36.7 -0.0 36.6 Mar-May 26.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 28.2 -2.4 25.9 Jun-Aug 20.8 0.6 2.4 1.7 25.5 9.4 34.9 Mkt. yr. 122.2 9.5 4.9 3.4 140.0 6.3 146.3 80.7 1.81 % Change 4.1 -8.7 5.1 -12.1 2.7 -47.7 -1.4 0.8 -2.14 1992/93 Sep-Nov 46.1 6.8 0.3 0.5 53.7 -2.2 51.5 Dec-Feb 35.6 1.7 1.0 0.8 39.1 0.1 39.2 Mar-May 29.2 2.0 0.5 0.6 32.3 -2.0 30.3 Jun-Aug 22.7 1.4 2.0 1.3 27.4 8.1 35.5 Mkt. yr. 133.7 11.9 3.8 3.2 152.5 3.9 156.4 82.7 1.89 % Change 9.4 25.3 -23.5 -8.4 8.9 -37.9 6.9 2.5 4.29 1993/94 Sep-Nov 43.2 5.6 0.6 0.5 50.0 -1.0 49.0 Dec-Feb 31.6 2.7 1.8 0.8 36.9 1.1 38.0 Mar-May 24.2 2.1 0.9 0.5 27.7 -0.7 27.0 Jun-Aug 20.3 1.0 2.7 1.5 25.6 10.2 35.8 Mkt. yr. 119.4 11.5 5.9 3.4 140.2 9.6 149.8 84.0 1.78 % Change -10.7 -3.4 56.5 7.1 -8.1 145.2 -4.3 1.5 -5.7 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.3 5.3 0.7 0.6 57.8 -0.8 57.0 Dec-Feb 38.0 2.0 1.1 0.6 41.7 0.7 42.4 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.5 0.5 32.3 -0.8 31.5 Jun-Aug 21.7 1.1 2.4 1.2 26.4 8.4 34.8 Mkt. yr. 140.6 10.0 4.68 2.8 158.2 7.5 165.7 84.6 1.96 % Change 17.8 -12.6 -20.9 -15.8 12.8 -21.6 10.6 0.7 9.8 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.7 4.5 0.6 0.4 50.2 -2.7 47.5 Dec-Feb 34.6 1.8 0.3 0.5 37.2 0.4 37.6 Mar-May 27.6 1.4 0.4 0.3 29.7 -1.6 28.1 Jun-Aug 13.8 -0.0 2.1 0.8 16.7 10.9 27.6 Mkt. yr. 120.7 7.6 3.4 2.1 133.8 6.9 140.7 85.5 1.64 % Change -14.2 -24.1 -26.8 -27.8 -15.4 -7.5 -15.1 1.1 -16.0 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 127.0 12.3 4.8 2.2 146.3 6.1 152.4 84.1 1.81 % Change 5.3 61.7 39.8 6.8 9.4 -11.9 8.3 -1.7 10.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1993/94 ---------1994/95---------- ----1995/96---- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sep-May May Sep-May May ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Barge shipments 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.6 (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 93.6 160.8 154.7 128.5 172.0 102.1 (Dec 1990 = 100) Railcar loadings 25.3 28.5 28.2 26.3 28.8 24.5 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 115.2 116.6 116.9 117.7 117.6 116.2 (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 3/ 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 3/ 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 Monthly: 1995: Feb 2.27 2.72 4.48 4.63 2.06 2.82 1.42 Mar 2.36 2.79 4.63 4.67 2.02 2.85 1.54 Apr 2.41 2.79 4.68 4.08 1.97 NQ 1.62 May 2.50 2.84 4.93 4.27 2.11 NQ 1.76 1996: Feb 3.71 4.18 7.25 7.25 3.00 3.47 2.31 Mar 3.92 4.34 7.38 7.50 2.86 NQ 2.47 Apr 4.47 4.80 8.16 8.44 2.99 NQ 2.56 May 4.86 5.17 8.88 8.46 3.20 4.11 2.68 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Revised. NQ = No quote. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------$/ton---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 Monthly: 1995: Feb 149.40 97.50 81.00 221.25 181.00 97.00 62.50 89.00 Mar 145.70 100.30 82.10 215.60 180.75 93.75 73.90 89.00 Apr 151.00 98.10 77.40 206.25 160.60 93.50 55.75 89.40 May 148.10 92.75 78.50 196.50 159.60 98.00 49.70 95.30 1996: Feb 216.70 202.80 122.10 342.50 217.60 144.00 118.70 88.20 Mar 215.70 195.60 122.00 341.25 216.50 145.00 128.90 89.10 Apr 237.90 206.25 127.40 336.50 212.90 156.60 148.00 94.50 May 232.30 191.25 138.40 343.10 220.20 186.50 114.70 102.40 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, seed, and industrial uses -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg product F&I Seed FSI -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1990/91 Sep-Nov 84.5 51.3 55.5 77.7 39.2 28.4 336.6 0.0 336.6 Dec-Feb 81.9 44.8 52.8 88.0 32.8 28.1 328.4 0.0 328.4 Mar-May 102.5 50.2 54.7 90.2 37.0 28.7 363.3 17.6 380.9 Jun-Aug 110.2 53.7 55.6 93.1 26.2 28.7 367.6 1.7 369.2 Mkt year 379.0 200.0 218.6 349.1 135.2 114.0 1395.8 19.3 1415.1 1991/92 Sep-Nov 87.5 52.8 56.0 98.6 34.5 28.8 358.3 0.0 358.3 Dec-Feb 87.0 47.1 54.8 100.9 41.3 28.8 360.0 0.0 360.0 Mar-May 106.6 54.2 57.2 99.9 43.6 29.2 390.7 19.9 410.6 Jun-Aug 110.7 55.6 56.7 98.8 41.5 29.2 392.4 0.3 392.7 Mkt year 391.8 209.7 224.7 398.3 160.9 116.0 1501.3 20.2 1521.5 1992/93 Sep-Nov 92.4 54.5 53.8 104.4 34.2 29.2 368.4 0.0 368.4 Dec-Feb 88.6 47.2 52.8 107.5 38.3 28.8 363.2 0.0 363.2 Mar-May 110.5 55.1 54.3 110.9 33.0 29.6 393.3 16.4 409.7 Jun-Aug 123.3 57.7 56.8 102.8 30.1 29.6 400.4 2.3 402.7 Mkt year 414.8 214.5 217.6 425.5 135.7 117.3 1525.4 18.7 1544.1 1993/94 Sep-Nov 98.5 55.8 56.4 112.2 27.7 29.4 380.1 0.0 380.1 Dec-Feb 95.3 49.6 52.7 119.3 29.9 29.1 375.8 0.0 375.8 Mar-May 118.0 56.7 56.3 112.4 24.9 29.7 398.2 19.5 417.7 Jun-Aug 131.8 60.8 57.3 114.3 23.2 29.7 417.1 0.6 417.7 Mkt year 443.6 222.9 222.7 458.3 105.8 118.0 1571.3 20.1 1591.4 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.6 58.8 57.3 134.4 21.2 29.4 405.8 0.0 405.8 Dec-Feb 100.5 51.5 55.0 141.5 28.6 29.1 406.2 0.0 406.2 Mar-May 123.8 58.4 56.2 137.7 24.2 29.7 430.1 14.7 444.8 Jun-Aug 135.6 62.3 57.3 119.1 26.7 29.7 430.8 3.5 434.3 Mkt year 464.6 231.1 225.7 532.8 100.7 118.0 1672.8 18.2 1691.0 1995/96 Sep-Nov 110.1 60.7 55.8 121.1 32.3 29.4 409.4 0.0 409.4 Dec-Feb 105.1 52.9 51.5 120.8 28.0 29.1 387.4 0.0 387.4 Mar-May 130.8 60.7 54.9 91.8 20.0 29.7 388.1 17.7 405.8 Jun-Aug 139.0 60.7 57.7 61.3 21.3 29.7 369.8 2.7 372.5 Mkt year 485.0 235.0 220.0 395.0 101.6 118.0 1554.6 20.4 1575.0 1996/97 Sep-Nov 112.8 61.9 57.7 111.4 27.4 29.9 401.1 0.0 401.1 Dec-Feb 109.5 54.5 55.6 116.1 27.1 29.6 392.3 0.0 392.3 Mar-May 135.2 62.6 57.8 114.2 27.7 30.2 427.9 19.4 447.3 Jun-Aug 147.5 66.0 58.9 108.3 27.7 30.2 438.7 0.6 439.3 Mkt year 505.0 245.0 230.0 450.0 110.0 120.0 1660.0 20.0 1680.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, starch, New York Chicago Midwest Midwest fob Midwest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 2/ 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 Monthly 1995: Mar 13.13 10.58 25.50 11.80 12.32 Apr 13.17 10.62 25.50 11.80 12.65 May 13.22 10.67 25.50 11.80 12.89 Jun 3/ 13.59 11.04 25.50 11.80 13.22 1996: Mar 17.87 13.77 25.50 13.15 15.50 Apr 19.46 15.36 25.50 13.15 16.19 May 20.28 16.19 25.50 13.15 17.45 Jun 3/ 20.18 16.08 25.50 13.15 18.65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94------ ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. Sep-Apr Mkt. yr. Sep-Apr Sep-Apr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 12,322 9,234 15,849 10,200 10,276 Taiwan 5,077 3,935 6,027 3,919 3,917 Former USSR 2,909 2,821 140 55 27 South Africa 12 12 187 58 347 Sub-Saharan Africa 394 262 449 314 307 EU 1,765 1,339 2,836 1,776 2,347 Egypt 1,553 976 2,569 1,672 1,768 Canada 603 251 1,096 574 418 China 0 0 3,240 1,479 2,207 East Europe 48 48 112 67 166 Algeria 1,176 866 1,000 867 413 S. Korea 508 142 8,005 5,262 6,196 Mexico 1,468 452 2,985 2,187 3,849 Others 5,813 4,043 10,723 7,078 9,224 Total 33,649 24,379 55,218 35,508 41,461 SORGHUM Mexico 2,972 1,941 2,557 1,661 1,091 Japan 1,640 1,346 2,050 1,568 1,315 Others 432 368 1,008 724 1,325 Total 5,044 3,655 5,615 3,952 3,731 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1993/94--- ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. June-Apr Mkt. yr. June-Apr June-Apr BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 344 203 203 135 373 Israel 335 298 468 447 42 Jordan 251 251 51 51 0 Others 504 481 671 611 843 Total 1,433 1,234 1,392 1,244 1,258 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94--- ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. June-Apr Mkt. yr. June-Apr June-Apr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,011 876 1,161 1,065 1,251 Finland 526 484 374 374 22 Sweden 303 291 70 70 62 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,840 1,651 1,605 1,509 1,336 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 453 382 715 631 637 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 453 382 716 632 637 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 1,098 732 702 683 122 Other 5 0 16 16 6 Total 1/ 1,103 732 719 699 128 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, includes seed barley starting January 1994. Source: Bureau of the Census END-END-END .