FEED OUTLOOK January 14, 2000 January 2000 FDS-0100 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. FEED OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual FEED YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2000 will be released on April 24, 2000. Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the 2000 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-FDS-2000, $21. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o Total Feed Grain Use Forecast Up, Production Down o Corn Production Estimated at 9.4 Billion Bushels in 1999 o December 1 Hay Stocks Down from Last Year, Prices Weak o U.S. Corn Export Forecast Increased This Month as Global Trade Expands FEED GRAIN SUPPLY DECREASES FROM LAST MONTH U.S. feed grain production in 1999 is forecast at 263 million metric tons, down 1 percent from a month ago but down 3 percent from 1998. Feed grain supply in 1999/2000 is forecast at 317.1 million tons, down 1 percent from last month, and up 2 percent from 1998/99. Slight revisions in the beginning stocks for corn and sorghum lowered beginning feed grain stocks from last month. Total feed grain use is projected at 268 million tons, up 2 percent from last month and up 3 percent from 1998/99. FEED AND RESIDUAL USE UP FROM LAST YEAR On a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 1999/2000 is up nearly 3 percent from last month and up 5 percent from last year. The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) for 1999/2000 is 89.9 million units, up .5 percent from last month but up 1.5 percent from 1998/99. Feed and residual used per GCAU in 1999/2000 is forecast at 1.86 tons, up 3 percent from 1998/99, and nearly the same as the 1.87 tons used in 1997/98. In the index components for 1999/2000, GCAUs for dairy and hogs are down and those for cattle and poultry are up. Cattle on feed on December 1, 1999, were up 6 percent. Reduced prospects for wheat pasture suggest cattle have gone on feed rather than stay on pasture. In calendar 2000, beef production is estimated at 25 billion pounds, up 1 percent from last month, but down 5 percent from 1999. Production of broilers, turkeys, and eggs in 2000 is expected to increase from anticipated 1999 levels and maintain strong demand for feed grains. Broiler production is expected to increase 5 percent as producers respond to strong domestic demand. Turkey producers are expected to increase production 2 percent. Egg producers are expected to produce 7.1 billion dozen eggs in 2000, up nearly 3 percent from 1999. Pork production in 2000 is expect to decline 4 percent from last year, and is down 50 million pounds from last month's estimate. In early December, hog farmers indicated they intended to decrease the number of sows farrowing in December 1999-May 2000 by 4 percent relative to the prior year. If producers carry through with these reported intentions, feed needs by the pork sector are likely to be weaker in 1999/2000. Dairy cow numbers are likely to about equal the previous year, but with increased production per cow, milk production in 2000 is expected to total 165 billion pounds, up from 162.5 billion in 1999. Thus with increased milk production per cow, feed use by the dairy industry will continue strong. 1999 CORN PRODUCTION REVISED DOWN FROM NOVEMBER FORECAST U.S. corn production in 1999 was 9,437 million bushels, down 100 million from the last forecast made in November, and more than 300 million below the 1998 crop. The drop from the earlier forecast is due to a downward revision in planted and harvested acreage and lowered yields. Planted area in 1999 was indicated at 77.4 million acres, and harvested acres were 70.5 million, down 3 percent from 1998. The average yield was 133.8 bushels per acre, down from 134.4 bushels a year earlier. Some areas of the Corn Belt were subject to heat stress for a short time during late July. Objective yield data indicated record ear counts for Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and Wisconsin, among the seven States where these data are collected. CORN STOCKS PROJECTED TO DECLINE TO 1,714 MILLION BUSHELS The total supply of corn is projected at 11.2 billion bushels in 1999/2000, down 1 percent from last month, but up 1 percent from the year before. This will be the highest since 12 billion bushels in 1987/88. Use is projected to outpace supplies, leading to lower stocks. Ending stocks of corn in 1999/2000 are projected to decline 4 percent from last year and 14 percent from last month. Total use is projected at a record 9,525 million bushels, up 2 percent from the previous year. The forecast of corn feed and residual use was increased 100 million bushels this month to 5,650 million, mainly reflecting larger use in the September- November quarter. December 1 stocks indicated that feed and residual use was stronger than expected. Forecast food, seed, and industrial use of corn was raised 20 million bushels this month to 1,900 million, up 4 percent from last year's record. The corn export forecast was increased 50 million bushels this month to 1,975 million bushels, down 6 million from last year. CORN FOOD, SEED, AND INDUSTRIAL USE RISING Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of corn in 1999/2000 is expected to total 1,900 million bushels, up from 1,822 million in 1998/99, and up 20 million from last month. In 1999/2000, FSI use would represent 20 percent of total use, the same as in 1998/99. In September-November 1999 (the first quarter of the 1999/2000 marketing year), FSI use was up 2 percent from a year earlier, rising for all uses except fuel ethanol, which was down only fractionally. Corn used for HFCS production in September-November 1999 was up 5 percent from September-November 1998. Shipments were strong as manufacturers stocked up in case of Y2K problems. Also, consumers may have increased soft drink purchases to have additional supplies. Corn used to make glucose and dextrose was up slightly from a year earlier in September-November 1999, and is forecast to be up 3 percent for the entire marketing year. Corn used for starch production in the first quarter was up 5 percent from a year earlier, with the yearly increase expected to be 5 percent as well. Monthly ethanol production reported by the Energy Information Administration in the Department of Energy indicates that corn used to make ethanol in September-November 1999 totaled 131.7 million bushels, down from 132.4 million a year earlier. Low gasoline prices relative to alcohol have encouraged splash blending for increased octane and ethanol stocks have declined. Corn used to make ethanol in 1999/2000 is estimated to be up 6 percent from the 526 million bushels used in 1998/99. Beverage and manufacturing alcohol production is estimated to use 130 million bushels of corn, up 3 percent from the estimated 127 million bushels used in 1998/99. SORGHUM ENDING STOCKS DECLINE Sorghum production in 1999 is estimated at 595 million bushels, down 831,000 bushels from November 1, but up 14 percent from 1998's production. The change was caused by a reduction in yields, as planted acres are down and harvested acres are up from the November 1 estimate. December 1 sorghum stocks indicated that feed and residual use during the September-November quarter was stronger than expected. Forecast feed and residual use was increased 25 million bushels this month in line with first-quarter disappearance, and is up 30 percent from last year. Food, seed, and industrial use was unchanged from last month, as were exports. BARLEY PRODUCTION UNCHANGED Barley production for 1999 was estimated at 282 million bushels, unchanged from the earlier estimate, and down 20 percent from 1998. Planted area, harvested area, and yields were unchanged from the earlier estimate. In 1999/2000, total use of barley is expected to be up 5 million bushels from the previous estimate, but down 9 percent from the 360 million bushels used in 1998/99. Feed and residual use was increased 5 million bushels this month because of strong disappearance in the September-November quarter. Exports and food, seed, and industrial uses were unchanged. OATS PRODUCTION DOWN FROM LAST YEAR Oats production in 1999 was revised down 288,000 bushels from the last estimate to a record low of 146 million bushels, down 12 percent from 1998. Planted and harvested acreage were largely unchanged from the earlier estimate but yields were lowered. Feed and residual use of oats in June-November 1999 was down 18 percent from the 113.2 million bushels used in the same period in 1998. For the full 1999/2000 year, feed and residual use is forecast at 150 million bushels, down 15 million from last month, and down 12 percent from the year before. Exports, and food, seed, and industrial use are unchanged from last month. Ending stocks are forecast at 80 million bushels, up 15 million from last month, and about the same as the 81 million in 1998/99. HAY STOCKS DECREASE, PRICES WEAK Stocks of all hay on farms December 1, 1999, were down 3 percent from 1998's revised 112 million tons. Stock decreases occurred in 29 of the 48 contiguous States. Dry weather in the Mid- Atlantic and Midwestern States played a major role in stock decreases. Roughage consuming animal units (RCAU's) in 1999/2000 are estimated to be down 3 percent from 1998/99. Hay stocks are 1.51 tons per RCAU, the same as last year. Hay production in 1999 totaled 159 million tons, up 5 percent from the 1998 total. Acreage of all hay was up 5 percent from the 60 million acres harvested in 1998, but yields were down slightly at 2.52 tons per acre, from 2.53 tons in 1998. Production of alfalfa and alfalfa hay mixtures in 1999 was up 2 percent from 1998's 82 million tons. Acreage and yields were both up 1 percent. During 1999, the number of acres of new seedings to alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures was down 3 percent from the 3.5 million acres seeded in 1998. Other hay production was up 8 percent from 1998's 69 million tons. Other hay was harvested on 39 million acres, up nearly 8 percent from 1998. Average yields in 1999 were 1.92 tons per acre, compared with 1.91 a year earlier. Corn for silage in 1999 was up 1 percent from the 95 million tons produced in 1998. Acreage was up 3 percent and yields were down 1 percent. Sorghum for silage in 1999 totaled 3.7 million tons, up 5 percent from 1998. In 1999, acreage was up 4 percent from the year earlier, and yields were up 2 percent from the 11.4 tons per acre in 1998. Total silage production per roughage consuming animal unit in 1999 was 1.39 tons, up from 1.34 in 1998. Mid-month prices for all hay reported by farmers in December 1999 were $71 per ton, down from $74 in November, and down from $77.50 in December 1998. Prices in 1999 had been weakening relative to a year earlier, even with the drought because many cattlemen reduced their herds rather than buy hay. Prices received for alfalfa hay in December were $73.20 per ton, down from $77.30 in November and $79.70 a year earlier. Other hay prices averaged $2.59 per ton below a year earlier during May through December. In December the price of other hay was $65.90 per ton, up from $64.80 in November, but down from $71.10 a year earlier. Given current estimates of livestock numbers and hay stocks, prices may remain weak during the remainder of the hay marketing year. PRICE EXPECTATIONS STRENGTHEN FOR FEED GRAINS With forecast use reducing ending stocks, the forecast season average farm price of corn was increased 10 cents on each end to a range of $1.70-2.10 per bushel. The sorghum price forecast was also increased this month to $1.45-1.85 per bushel. Sorghum prices to date have averaged 86 percent of the corn price. The all barley price is forecast at $1.95-2.15 per bushel, after the range was tightened by 5 cents on each end. In June-December 1999, farm prices for barley averaged $2.06 per bushel, up from $2.00 in the same period last year. Malting barley's premium over feed barley has remained wide, averaging 84 cents so far, compared with 85 cents for the same period a year earlier. The oats price forecast was unchanged this month at $1.05-1.15 per bushel. Farm prices for oats in June-December 1999 averaged $1.09, down from $1.15 for the same period in 1998. LDPs SUPPORT FEED GRAIN FARMERS' INCOME The 1996 Farm Act contained key policy tools to assist farmers when market prices are low. The key provisions are the "nonrecourse marketing assistance loans" and "loan deficiency payments" (LDPs). Producers that entered into Production Flexibility Contracts with USDA are eligible to participate in these programs. As of January 13, 2000, eligible producers collected $1,699 million in LDP's covering 5,944 million bushels of 1999-crop corn or about 63 percent of the 1999 crop. The average payment rate was 29 cents per bushel on 799,254 contracts. In 1998, 58 percent of the corn produced received an LDP. Sorghum producers have collected $136 million in LDPs on their 1999 crop, covering 438 million bushels or about 74 percent of the crop. The average payment rate was 31 cents per bushel on 108,567 contracts. In 1998, 67 percent of the sorghum crop received an LDP. For barley, producers have collected $34 million in LDPs covering 185 million bushels or about 66 percent of the crop. The average payment rate was 18 cents per bushel on 37,599 contracts. In 1998, 73 percent of the barley crop received an LDP. Oats producers have collected $27 million in LDPs covering 114 million bushels or about 78 percent of the 1999 crop. The average payment rate was 23 cents per bushel on 57,205 contracts. In 1998, 63 percent of the oats crop received an LDP. U.S. CORN EXPORT FORECAST BOOSTED AS GLOBAL TRADE EXPANDS U.S. corn exports in fiscal 2000 (October/September 1999/2000) are forecast at 49 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month, because of the strong pace of sales and expanding global demand. Local marketing year (September/August) exports are forecast up 50 million bushels to 1,975 million. Projected world corn trade expanded this month because of increased imports for Brazil, South Korea, and Mexico. Dry weather over southern Brazil, where much of the country's commercial corn is grown, reduced corn production prospects by 1 million tons. The Brazilian corn crop is planted earlier than the soybean crop or the crops in Argentina, and has already suffered enough damage to reduce production prospects. With production prospects waning, Brazilian feed compounders have begun to tender for imports, and with Argentina's corn harvest still several months away, have tendered for U.S. corn. South Korea has purchased more corn than expected and less feed wheat in recent months. This has maintained the strong pace of U.S. corn shipments to South Korea even though China has also been exporting corn there. South Korea's corn import forecast was raised 0.5 million tons, while feed wheat imports were reduced by a like amount. Mexico's corn import forecast also increased this month because first quarter 2000 import quotas were recently announced. The increased quotas were given to starch manufacturers, and will compete less directly with local, mostly white corn production. While world corn trade was boosted by increased import demand this month, Argentina's 1999/2000 export prospects were reduced 0.3 million tons because of the increased pace of local consumption. Argentina's internal corn consumption for both 1998/99 and 1999/2000 was raised this month based on recent data on supply and use. Less corn than expected has been available for export in Argentina's 1998/99 (March/February) marketing year. In contrast, the recent pace of U.S. corn exports has been robust. U.S. corn exports in 1999/2000 (September/August) are forecast at 50.17 million tons, nearly the same as 50.31 a year earlier. According to U.S. Export Sales, as of January 6, corn shipments of 17.8 million tons were up 11 percent compared to the same time a year ago. However, outstanding sales of 7.4 million were down 6 percent. In the second half of the marketing year, with increased competition from China, and a large Argentine corn harvest expected, U.S. corn exports are expected to slip behind last year's pace. WORLD COARSE GRAIN STOCKS EXPECTED TO DECLINE IN 1999/2000 Forecast foreign coarse grain production and consumption were almost unchanged this month, as increased corn production reported for the EU almost offset reduced Brazilian prospects. However, U.S. changes were large enough to shift the global balance. Instead of increasing, world coarse grain stocks are now expected to decline 3 percent during 1999/2000. Global production is forecast down 17 million tons compared with a year ago. Dryness reduced production across several major areas, including the United States, China, the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East. However, with large stocks and low world prices, coarse grain consumption is expected to expand slowly, up 5 million tons. World production of coarse grain, at 874 million tons, is still almost as large as forecast use of 878 million, and the reduction in global stocks is expected to be small. At a forecast 149 million tons, 1999/2000 ending stocks will still be the third largest in the last decade. The large stocks and sluggish increases in use are likely to limit price increases. ************************************************************ Information Contacts: Allen Baker (202) 694-5290 International: Edward Allen (202) 694-5288 Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 694-5296 The next Feed Outlook will be released February 15, 2000. ************************************************************ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN ------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1996/97 Sep-Nov 426 9,233 3 9,662 383 1,890 487 2,759 6,903 2.87 Dec-Feb 6,903 --- 2 6,905 394 1,492 525 2,411 4,494 2.66 Mar-May 4,494 --- 4 4,498 465 1,103 433 2,001 2,497 2.77 Jun-Aug 2,497 --- 4 2,500 450 814 353 1,617 883 2.49 Mkt. yr. 426 9,233 13 9,672 1,692 5,299 1,797 8,789 883 2.71 1997/98 Sep-Nov 883 9,207 2 10,092 429 2,036 380 2,845 7,247 2.53 Dec-Feb 7,247 --- 1 7,248 418 1,510 380 2,308 4,940 2.55 Mar-May 4,940 --- 4 4,944 464 1,089 350 1,904 3,040 2.45 Jun-Aug 3,040 --- 2 3,042 470 870 394 1,734 1,308 2.12 Mkt. yr. 883 9,207 9 10,099 1,782 5,505 1,504 8,791 1,308 2.43 1998/99 Sep-Nov 1,308 9,761 4 11,073 444 2,127 450 3,021 8,052 1.90 Dec-Feb 8,052 --- 6 8,058 427 1,467 465 2,359 5,698 2.04 Mar-May 5,698 --- 7 5,706 489 1,103 497 2,089 3,616 2.04 Jun-Aug 3,616 --- 2 3,618 462 801 568 1,831 1,787 1.84 Mkt. yr.1,308 9,761 19 11,088 1,822 5,498 1,981 9,301 1,787 1.94 1999/00 Sep-Nov 1,787 9,437 3 11,227 453 2,224 530 3,207 8,020 1.70 Mkt. yr.1,787 9,437 15 11,239 1,900 5,650 1,975 9,525 1,714 1.70-2.10 SORGHUM 1996/97 Sep-Nov 18 795 0 814 15 276 56 346 467 2.45 Dec-Feb 467 --- 0 467 15 119 59 193 274 2.26 Mar-May 274 --- 0 274 10 85 61 155 119 2.41 Jun-Aug 119 --- 0 119 6 37 29 72 47 2.27 Mkt. yr. 18 795 0 814 45 516 205 766 47 2.34 1997/98 Sep-Nov 47 634 0 681 18 239 49 307 374 2.26 Dec-Feb 374 --- 0 374 18 38 83 139 235 2.24 Mar-May 235 --- 0 235 12 71 55 139 96 2.16 Jun-Aug 96 --- 0 96 6 17 24 47 49 2.08 Mkt. yr. 47 634 0 681 55 365 212 632 49 2.21 1998/99 Sep-Nov 49 520 0 569 15 178 41 234 335 1.68 Dec-Feb 335 --- 0 335 15 34 64 113 222 1.70 Mar-May 222 --- 0 222 10 45 51 106 116 1.72 Jun-Aug 116 --- 0 116 6 5 41 51 65 1.61 Mkt. yr. 49 520 0 569 45 262 197 504 65 1.66 1999/00 Sep-Nov 65 595 0 660 18 234 60 312 349 1.46 Mkt. yr. 65 595 0 660 55 340 210 605 55 1.45-1.85 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BARLEY ----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1997/98 Jun-Aug 109 360 12 482 44 87 24 155 327 2.31 Sep-Nov 327 --- 7 334 39 12 39 90 244 2.45 Dec-Feb 244 --- 8 252 37 29 6 72 180 2.42 Mar-May 180 --- 13 193 53 16 5 74 119 2.26 Mkt. yr. 109 360 40 510 172 144 74 390 119 2.38 1998/99 Jun-Aug 119 352 7 479 44 101 8 152 326 2.02 Sep-Nov 326 --- 7 333 39 16 8 63 271 1.97 Dec-Feb 271 --- 6 277 37 32 7 76 201 1.90 Mar-May 201 --- 9 210 51 12 5 68 142 1.84 Mkt. yr. 119 352 30 501 170 161 28 360 142 1.98 1999/00 Jun-Aug 142 282 6 429 44 81 9 134 295 2.12 Sep-Nov 295 --- 4 299 39 21 10 71 229 2.05 Mkt. yr. 142 282 25 449 172 125 30 327 122 1.95-2.15 OATS 1997/98 Jun-Aug 67 167 19 253 24 74 0.4 98 155 1.62 Sep-Nov 155 --- 38 193 22 26 0.7 49 144 1.54 Dec-Feb 144 --- 26 170 21 38 0.5 59 111 1.59 Mar-May 111 --- 15 127 28 24 0.5 53 74 1.60 Mkt. yr. 67 167 98 332 95 161 2.1 258 74 1.60 1998/99 Jun-Aug 74 166 28 268 24 82 0.5 106 162 1.15 Sep-Nov 162 --- 36 198 22 32 0.4 54 143 1.08 Dec-Feb 143 --- 22 166 21 32 0.5 53 113 1.20 Mar-May 113 --- 22 134 28 25 0.3 53 81 1.23 Mkt. yr. 74 166 108 348 95 170 1.7 266 81 1.10 1999/00 Jun-Aug 81 146 22 249 24 77 0.6 101 148 1.06 Sep-Nov 148 --- 27 175 23 16 0.5 39 136 1.08 Mkt. yr. 81 146 100 328 96 150 2.0 248 80 1.05-1.15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Million metric tons --------------- Mil. Tons 1997/98 Sep-Nov 51.7 6.1 0.3 0.5 58.5 -3.1 55.5 Dec-Feb 38.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 40.6 0.0 40.6 Mar-May 27.7 1.8 0.3 0.4 30.2 0.3 30.5 Jun-Aug 22.1 0.4 2.2 1.3 26.0 11.6 37.6 Mkt. yr. 139.8 9.3 3.4 2.8 155.3 8.8 164.1 87.9 1.87 % Change 3.9 -29.3 -5.6 7.3 0.9 14.5 1.5 3.1 -1.5 1998/99 Sep-Nov 54.0 4.5 0.3 0.6 59.4 -2.0 57.4 Dec-Feb 37.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 39.4 0.3 39.7 Mar-May 28.0 1.2 0.3 0.4 29.9 0.9 30.8 Jun-Aug 20.3 0.1 1.8 1.2 23.4 7.6 31.0 Mkt. yr. 139.7 6.7 3.1 2.7 152.1 6.8 158.9 88.5 1.79 % Change -0.1 -28.2 -10.5 -4.4 -2.1 -22.5 -3.2 0.7 -3.8 1999/00 Sep-Nov 56.5 5.9 0.5 0.3 63.2 0.1 63.3 Mkt. yr. 143.5 8.6 2.8 2.4 157.4 9.4 166.8 89.9 1.86 % Change 2.8 29.7 -8.7 -8.1 3.5 38.2 5.0 1.5 3.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 95/96 3.91 4.30 7.30 7.19 2.67 3.69 2.28 96/97 2.74 3.07 5.02 5.03 2.32 3.18 2.03 97/98 2.45 2.78 4.72 4.76 1.90 2.50 1.70 98/99 3/ 1.97 2.35 3.78 3.97 1.23 2.30 1.34 Monthly: 1998: Aug 1.86 2.24 4.97 4.13 NQ 2.30 1.21 Sep 1.78 2.18 4.81 3.84 NQ NQ 1.30 Oct 1.94 2.43 4.91 4.00 NQ NQ 1.29 Nov 2.09 2.47 4.91 4.15 NQ NQ 1.32 1999: Aug 1.84 2.20 4.15 3.77 NQ NQ 1.20 Sep 1.81 2.21 3.39 3.64 NQ NQ 1.17 Oct 1.72 2.17 3.30 3.55 NQ NQ 1.20 Nov 1.82 2.17 3.33 3.59 NQ NQ NQ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Preliminary. NQ = No quote. Table 4--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------$/ton----------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 95/96 217.27 186.12 116.47 319.35 222.07 151.37 118.08 87.20 96/97 260.37 191.47 93.05 341.50 272.44 142.87 91.18 101.80 97/98 186.55 150.40 69.65 290.45 192.56 109.76 76.30 107.00 98/99 130.56 109.86 59.87 234.72 137.32 85.77 54.74 91.00 Monthly: 1998: Aug 135.70 130.30 57.50 245.00 156.80 86.00 53.40 90.20 Sep 126.90 115.60 51.50 210.00 133.40 NQ 43.90 87.10 Oct 129.40 106.50 56.90 227.50 141.30 75.00 49.00 86.90 Nov 139.30 107.90 66.10 313.10 154.00 74.00 60.00 84.40 1999: Aug 135.90 100.65 54.30 252.50 139.61 NQ 44.91 81.50 Sep 144.06 111.92 55.50 258.13 142.21 88.00 57.64 77.30 Oct 147.19 111.83 58.38 265.00 150.17 88.00 54.83 76.00 Nov 148.10 112.00 62.80 250.00 159.72 88.00 52.90 77.30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ preliminary. NQ=No quote. Table 5--Corn: Food, and industrial uses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Glucose ---Alcohol--- Cereals and Bev. & other Total Year HFCS dex. Starch Fuel & Mfg products F&I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Million bushels 1997/98 Sep-Nov 122.8 63.4 59.6 116.1 33.2 34.0 429.1 Dec-Feb 116.8 56.2 56.7 122.2 32.8 33.6 418.3 Mar-May 139.4 60.7 58.3 118.3 33.5 34.4 444.5 Jun-Aug 153.4 64.7 58.9 124.6 33.5 34.4 469.4 Mkt year 532.3 244.9 233.5 481.1 133.0 136.5 1,761.2 1998/99 Sep-Nov 127.6 60.5 57.8 132.4 31.1 34.5 443.8 Dec-Feb 120.8 52.0 54.7 132.9 32.6 34.1 427.1 Mar-May 145.4 60.0 57.1 138.8 34.1 34.8 470.1 Jun-Aug 155.4 61.6 58.2 121.8 29.4 34.8 461.2 Mkt year 549.3 234.1 227.8 525.8 127.1 138.2 1,802.2 1999/00 Sep-Nov 133.7 60.6 60.4 131.7 31.9 34.8 453.2 Mkt year 575.0 240.0 240.0 555.0 130.5 140.0 1,880.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 6--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn starch, yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, fob Midwest New York Chicago Midwest Midwest 3/ 4/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 95/96 17.79 14.21 25.50 13.01 15.98 96/97 16.94 12.85 25.50 13.15 13.83 97/98 15.94 11.85 28.08 7.77 13.55 98/99 2/ 15.06 11.00 24.24 8.04 12.28 Monthly 1998: Sep 14.58 10.48 30.65 7.14 11.92 Oct 14.89 10.99 30.65 7.40 11.71 Nov 15.07 10.97 30.65 7.65 12.10 Dec 14.91 10.81 30.65 7.83 12.10 1999: Sep 15.28 11.18 16.38 8.45 12.01 Oct 14.89 10.79 16.38 9.25 11.89 Nov 14.42 10.32 16.38 9.25 11.65 Dec 2/ 14.48 10.38 16.38 9.25 11.83 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Revised. 4/ Bulk-industrial, unmodified. Table 7--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Jun - Oct Mkt. yr. Jun - Oct Jun - Oct ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,282 753 1,142 678 644 Finland 161 35 216 105 41 Sweden 176 22 443 212 79 Total 1/ 1,696 810 1,856 995 764 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 733 277 567 187 175 Total 1/ 733 277 567 187 175 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 112 65 81 62 11 Total 1/ 143 65 81 62 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, and also includes seed barley. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Sept.-Oct. Mkt. yr. Sept.-Oct. Sept.-Oct. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN Japan 14,581 2,768 15,110 2,106 2,485 S. Korea 3,593 439 6,462 648 1,022 Mexico 4,116 408 5,387 852 977 Taiwan 3,801 924 4,365 783 854 Egypt 1,808 411 3,159 523 514 Colombia 1,175 181 1,512 216 263 Venezuela 655 91 1,288 174 130 Saudi Arabia 971 149 1,182 217 237 Algeria 861 210 955 154 82 Canada 1,423 225 867 182 224 Dominican Republic 644 106 777 75 161 Turkey 379 58 692 65 0 Peru 253 27 674 156 143 Morocco 350 28 592 42 59 Chile 147 20 486 65 100 Former USSR 23 22 405 0 83 China 212 0 204 97 58 South Africa 0 0 143 0 111 Other Sub-Saharan 336 23 298 40 41 EU 147 3 192 124 0 East Europe 19 0 12 0 35 Others 2,623 482 5,464 646 1,642 Total 38,117 6,578 50,228 7,168 9,220 SORGHUM Mexico 3,222 299 3,103 393 768 Japan 1,650 469 1,362 154 274 Others 463 56 433 13 15 Total 5,334 824 4,899 560 1,057 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1997/98--- ------1998/99------ 1999/2000 Mkt. yr. Jun-Oct Mkt. yr. Jun-Oct Jun-Oct BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 922 828 0 0 0 Israel 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan 53 0 0 0 0 Japan 290 191 422 216 253 Mexico 124 59 94 46 56 Taiwan 94 60 0 0 5 Other 135 74 99 46 55 Total 1,617 1212 615 308 369 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census END_OF_FILE