FEED OUTLOOK May 13, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FEED OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. FDS--0596. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS o 1996/97 Initial Projections: Feed Grain Production and Supply To Rise o Corn Feed and Residual, FSI Use Up in 1996/97, Exports To Soften o Prices To Remain Relatively Strong with Only Modest Gains in Stocks o 1995/96 Corn: Exports Continue To Rise, Intense Pressure on Supplies HIGHER PRODUCTION TO BOOST FEED GRAIN SUPPLIES U.S. feed grain production in 1996 is projected at 265.6 million metric tons, up 27 percent from the poor crop of 1995. The projection reflects both higher yields and harvested acreage for each of the feed grains. Because of low carryin stocks, feed grain supplies are only projected to increase 9 percent in 1996/97, however. Demand will remain strong, and with the additional supply, total disappearance is projected up 4 percent to 256 million metric tons. Only small gains in feed grain stocks are expected, providing underlying support for prices in 1996/97. Ending stocks are projected to double to 24.2 million tons from the low expected in 1995/96, but the total would be the second lowest since 1975/76. Season average farm prices are projected to decline moderately for corn and sorghum in 1995/96, while oats rise slightly and barley prices show little change. Supplies of old-crop feed grains will be extremely tight in upcoming months. The availability of hay and forage will be critical in some areas, and interest in alternative feedstuffs will remain high. The market is likely to factor in risk premiums in new-crop feed grain prices until at least early summer, depending on the status of the 1996 corn crop. This will also prop up prices for barley and oats, because they are usually available before new-crop corn and sorghum. Limited supplies of wheat for feeding this summer and continued high wheat prices will also support feed grain prices until the new corn harvest. The global outlook for coarse grains is for some easing of tight supplies in 1996/97. Gains in world production are expected to outstrip increases in world consumption, leading to an 18-percent increase in world coarse grain stocks. This would raise the stocks-to-use ratio to 11.3 percent, compared with the record low of 9.9 percent forecast for 1995/96. HARVESTS OF EACH FEED GRAIN PROJECTED TO RISE IN 1996 Corn production in 1996 is initially projected at 9,375 million bushels, up 27 percent from 1995, reflecting a sharp increase in planted acres and better yields. Corn plantings are expected to rise nearly 14 percent to 81 million acres. This is up 1.1 million acres from farmers' intentions reported in the March Prospective Plantings report, reflecting the abnormally high loss of winter wheat acres in the Midwest. This acreage would surpass the 79.2 million acres planted for the record 1994 crop and would be the highest since 1985, when plantings were 83.4 million. The average corn yield is projected at 126 bushels per acre, based on a linear trend fit over 1960-95, assuming normal weather and growing conditions. This compares with an average of 113.5 in 1995, when conditions were less than favorable. As of May 5, 41 percent of the crop had been planted in the major producing States, well above the average of 31 percent and last year's slow start when only 17 was planted. In Iowa, the leading producing State, plantings were 54 percent complete compared with the average of 29 percent. However, in the eastern Corn Belt, plantings were well behind the normal pace because fields were still too wet. Sorghum production is projected to increase 39 percent to 640 million bushels in 1996, also reflecting additional acreage and improved yields. Yields are projected at 66.7 bushels per acre based on the 1960-95 trend, compared with 55.6 bushels the year before. Plantings are projected to rise 12 percent from 1995, when planted sorghum acres were the lowest since 1929. In some areas, farmers may plant even more sorghum than they indicated earlier because of extremely high prices and widespread interest in replanting failed wheat acres. On the other hand, continuation of the dry conditions that harmed the wheat crop could also limit sorghum plantings, particularly in Texas. Barley output is projected at 400 million bushels, up 11 percent from 1995. The average barley yield is projected at 59 bushels per acre, based on the 1960-95 trend, up from 57.2 in 1995. Planted acres are expected to rebound 8 percent from a year earlier, when acreage sank to 7.2 million acres, the lowest since USDA began reporting planted barley acres in 1929. Despite high barley prices, prices for competing spring wheat are also very high, limiting gains. So far this year, plantings of both barley and spring wheat are well behind normal because of cool, wet conditions in the key northern growing areas. Oats production is projected at 175 million bushels, up 13 million from the record low of 1995. Planted acres are expected to decline again to a record low 5.3 million acres, continuing the long-term downtrend. Harvested acres, however, will rise slightly, according to farmers' intentions. The average yield is also projected to rise slightly to 55.2 bushels per acre, up from 54.7 bushels in 1995, based on the 1985-95 average, excluding the high and low years. DOMESTIC CORN USE TO INCREASE IN 1996/97 Bigger supplies will allow marked increases in feed and residual use of corn and sorghum, along with a recovery in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) uses of corn. Corn feed and residual use is projected to rebound nearly 10 percent from forecast use in 1995/96, and sorghum feed and residual is projected to jump by a third. Only a small gain in barley feed and residual use is expected, while oats use is likely to shrink further in 1996/97. Feed and residual use of the four feed grains plus wheat in 1996/97 is expected to total 154 million tons, 13 percent above the estimated 1995/96 use. Feed and residual use per grain consuming animal unit (GCAU) is projected to rebound and equal 1.78 ton per GCAU, up from the record low of 1.58 tons in 1995/96. FSI use of corn in 1996/97 may total 1,690 million bushels, up 4 percent from 1995/96. Use in corn sweeteners is expected to increase 4 percent. New sweetener facilities have become operational and will expanded output. Corn used in starch production is expected to increase 2 percent, as the economy continues a modest expansion. Fuel ethanol is expected to take 5 percent more corn than in 1995/96 as plants are brought back into production. Some plants are supposed to be converted to beverage and industrial production as well as fuel, which could keep fuel production from reaching its previous high. Use of corn in beverage and industrial alcohol production in 1996/97 was increased 3 percent to reflect announced plans to shift production to these products. Food use of corn in 1996/97 is likely to continue its expansion in line with population increases. GLOBAL COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION TO EXPAND, U.S. EXPORTS TO SLIP IN 1996/97 Global production of coarse grains is projected to increase 11 percent in 1996/97. In addition to the large prospective gains in U.S. crops, foreign production is projected to rise 6 percent. The largest gains among foreign crops are expected in barley, up about 14 million tons, led by the EU and Russia. Foreign corn production is forecast to increase about 10 million tons, and includes increases in Mexico, the EU, China, and Argentina. Foreign sorghum output is forecast up 2 million tons, largely due to an increase in India. Foreign oats production is forecast to rise nearly 3 million tons, with the biggest gains in Russia and Canada. World coarse grain trade in 1996/97 is initially projected up marginally to 89.9 million tons, reflecting continued growth in foreign use. However, a small recovery in competitor production and exports is projected to cause a modest loss of market share for the United States. U.S. coarse grain exports in October-September 1996/97 are projected to decline 4 percent while competitor exports expand about 12 percent. U.S. market share is projected at 65.9 percent, compared with 69.1 in 1995/96. U.S. corn exports are projected to slip 200 million bushels in September-August 1996/97 to 2,100 million. Competitor corn shipments are forecast to rise 19 percent due to gains by South Africa and Argentina. China is expected to remain a net corn importer. U.S. sorghum exports are projected to increase 25 million bushels to 210 million because of larger U.S. supplies. In addition, exports by Australia are forecast to drop. U.S. barley exports are projected to decline 20 million bushels to 45 million in June-May 1996/97. A sharp rebound in Canada's barley exports is likely, reducing U.S. export prospects. While global barley trade is forecast to rise 8 percent, it will remain weak compared with the early 1990's. DESPITE GAINS IN SUPPLY, RELATIVELY LOW STOCKS TO SUPPORT PRICES Ending stocks of corn in 1996/97 are projected to expand by more than 400 million bushels to 762 million. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 8.5 percent, up from the modern low expected in 1995/96. Sorghum and barley stocks are also projected to increase, while oats are expected to show little change. The season average farm price of corn is projected to decline to $2.70-3.10 per bushel in 1996/97. Similarly, the sorghum farm price is projected at $2.55-2.95 per bushel. The all barley farm price is projected to be fairly steady at $2.65-3.05 per bushel, compared with $2.90 estimated in 1995/96. The farm price of oats is also projected to stay relatively high at $1.55-1.95, compared with the estimated $1.65 in 1995/96. HAY DISAPPEARANCE ROSE IN 1995/96 Total hay stocks on May 1, 1996, were 20.8 million tons, up marginally (14,000 tons) from 1995. Higher grain prices have encouraged producers to slightly increase hay consumption relative to grains. In 1995/96 (May-April hay year), disappearance per roughage consuming animal unit was up 1.6 percent from the 1.94 tons consumed in 1994/95. In March 1996, farmers indicated they intended to harvest 742,000 fewer acres in 1996 than in 1995, a decline of 1 percent. For the week ending May 5, 1996, some of the big hay producing States, such as Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Iowa, had over a third of their pasture and range area rated in poor to very poor condition. The large hay crop in 1995 kept prices below the previous year until recently. By March, hay prices had increased, equaling the prices of a year earlier. The preliminary price for April 1996 was $4 per ton above last year, reflecting the limited early season grazing and possibly higher prices for 1996. 1995/96 CORN EXPORT FORECAST UP AGAIN, INTENSE PRESSURE ON SUPPLIES EXPECTED THROUGH SUMMER The forecast of U.S. corn exports for 1995/96 was raised another 50 million bushels this month to 2,300 million. This reflects heavy purchases by Mexico, where stocks are extremely low, and other countries. Despite record prices, Mexico will likely continue buying U.S. corn because corn is the main staple food grain and is not just needed for feed use. Total commitments of U.S. corn (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) as of May 2 had reached 2,220 million bushels, 17 percent greater than at the same time a year earlier. No other changes were made in corn use this month, and forecast ending stocks were reduced 50 million bushels to 317 million. If realized, this would be the lowest since 1947/48, with the prospective stocks-to-use ratio of 3.7 percent matching the low reached in the 1930's Depression. Strong premiums are providing incentives to farmers to sell new-crop corn as early as possible this year as supplies dry up in the summer quarter. Many farmers, especially from the Bootheel region of Missouri and south, are trying to capture these high prices. However, production may not be that large because yields in these areas are generally below the national average, and shorter season varieties also tend to be lower yielding. The precise amount of use in the last few weeks of the marketing year could be difficult to judge, to the extent that new-crop corn enters marketing channels and is used before the beginning of the 1996/97 year on September 1. Shipments of Southern Hemisphere corn exports are now starting, potentially easing some pressure on the U.S. market. The possibility that importers could defer deliveries of corn already purchased from the United States will probably hinge on the condition of the 1996 U.S. corn crop. If importers are confident that a crop of 9 billion bushels or more can be realized, perhaps by midsummer, they might roll over contracts to delivery later in the year. NO CHANGE IN 1995/96 CORN FOOD AND INDUSTRIAL USE In 1995/96, food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is expected to total 1,630 million bushels, 18 percent of total supply and down from 1,693 million bushels from 1994/95. In 1994/95, food and industrial use consumed 15 percent of total supply. Expected use is the same as last month, even though some ethanol producers have stated they are cutting back production. However, monthly reports of alcohol production have not shown any of these cuts to date. Use has continued strong and while production was up slightly in March from February on a daily basis, some of the cutbacks will occur at the end of the corn marketing year and into the next marketing year. FEED AND RESIDUAL UPDATE Feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 1995/96 is expected to total 136.2 million metric tons, down 18 percent from 1994/95. The forecast was reduced from last month largely because of lower wheat supplies. GCAU's in 1995/96 are expected to total 86.2 million units, up from 84.6 million in 1994/95. Cattle on feed on April 1 in the 7 monthly reporting States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more were down 1 percent from the previous year, the same as in the previous month. High grain prices resulting in low feeder cattle prices have caused cow-calf producers to hold their calves on grass longer. Improved grazing conditions have allowed cow-calf and stocker operations to keep their cattle on grass to resist the lower bids and put on more weight before the animals are sold. Broiler production in 1996 is expected to increase 6 percent from the 25 billion pounds produced in 1995. Even with sharp increases in corn prices boosting feed costs, producers in March hatched 2 percent more broiler-type chicks than a year earlier. This was down from the 8-percent increase recorded in February 1996. Currently turkey and egg production in 1996 are not expected to change from earlier forecasts. Numbers of dairy cows continue below a year earlier but even with higher prices for concentrates, milk production per cow increased, raising milk output in January-March 1996 1 percent from a year earlier. Grain and other concentrates fed on April 1, 1996, totaled 18.6 pounds per cow, the same as in April 1995. PRICES CONTINUE TO SOAR The preliminary price of corn received by farmers in April hit another record of $4.11 per bushel, up from $3.51 in March. Despite the fact that farmers have already sold most of the crop, the extraordinarily high level of current prices for remaining sales will pull up the season average. The forecast range of weighted average farm prices for 1995/96 was raised 5 cents on each end to $3.15-3.25 per bushel. For the third consecutive month, the farm price of sorghum soared to another record, reaching a preliminary $4.13 in April, up from $3.65 a month earlier. The season average sorghum price was also raised 5 cents to $3.15 to $3.25 per bushel. The farm price of oats increased 8 cents from March to a preliminary $2.12 per bushel in April, but it still trails the higher prices reached in the 1988/89 drought year. The season average oats price is now forecast at $1.65. The all barley price received by farmers in March rose 4 cents to $3.30 per bushel, with the season price forecast at a record $2.90, surpassing the old high of $2.81 hit in 1974/75. The feed barley farm price rose sharply in April to a preliminary $3.28 per bushel. Futures prices for old-crop corn posted a number of record highs in recent weeks, with the May contract eclipsing $5.00 at times. Contracts for new crop jumped around somewhat but remained well over $3.00. The market is sending strong signals not to hold any old supplies. Cash corn prices at Central Illinois points jumped to another record average of $4.47 in April, and went as high as $4.89 early this month. ****************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: Pete Riley (202) 501-8512 * * Allen Baker (202) 219-0360 * * Transportation: T.Q. Hutchinson (202) 219-0391 * * Data Coordinator: Jenny Gonzales (202) 219-0704 * * The next Feed Outlook will be released June 13, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN -------------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Sep-Nov 2,113 6,336 5 8,455 378 1,705 435 2,518 5,937 2.34 Dec-Feb 5,937 --- 8 5,945 371 1,248 330 1,949 3,996 2.71 Mar-May 3,996 --- 6 4,002 419 954 270 1,642 2,360 2.67 Jun-Aug 2,360 --- 1 2,361 420 798 293 1,511 850 2.35 Mkt. yr. 2,113 6,336 21 8,470 1,588 4,704 1,328 7,620 850 2.50 1994/95 Sep-Nov 850 10,103 2 10,955 410 2,015 449 2,874 8,080 2.05 Dec-Feb 8,080 --- 4 8,084 403 1,499 590 2,493 5,592 2.18 Mar-May 5,592 --- 3 5,595 448 1,164 568 2,180 3,415 2.35 Jun-Aug 3,415 --- 1 3,416 432 856 570 1,858 1,558 2.59 Mkt. yr. 850 10,103 9.56 10,962 1,693 5,534 2,177 9,405 1,558 2.26 1995/96 Sep-Nov 1,558 7,374 4 8,935 402 1,767 660 2,830 6,106 2.79 Dec-Feb 6,106 --- 5 6,111 384 1,366 562 2,312 3,799 3.16 Mkt. yr. 1,558 7,374 15 8,947 1,630 4,700 2,300 8,630 317 3.15-3.25 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 317 9,375 10 9,702 1,690 5,150 2,100 8,940 762 2.70-3.10 SORGHUM 1993/94 Sep-Nov 175 534 0 709 2 222 39 263 446 2.22 Dec-Feb 446 --- 0 446 2 108 60 170 276 2.59 Mar-May 276 --- 0 276 3 82 64 148 128 2.39 Jun-Aug 128 --- 0 128 2 41 38 81 48 2.10 Mkt. yr. 175 534 0 709 8 453 202 662 48 2.31 1994/95 Sep-Nov 48 649 0 697 2 209 64 274 422 1.91 Dec-Feb 422 --- 0 422 1 79 61 142 281 2.02 Mar-May 281 --- 0 281 2 66 54 122 159 2.18 Jun-Aug 159 --- 0 159 2 42 43 87 72 2.64 Mkt. yr. 48 649 0 697 7 395 223 625 72 2.13 1995/96 Sep-Nov 72 460 0 532 2 175 54 231 301 2.88 Dec-Feb 301 --- 0 301 1 71 67 139 162 3.26 Mkt. yr. 72 460 0 532 7 300 185 492 40 3.15-3.25 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 40 640 0 680 7 400 210 617 63 2.55-2.95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1--Feed Grains: Marketing year supply and disappearance, (cont.) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year/ Beg. Produc- Im- Supply FSI Feed & Ex- Total End. Farm Qtr. stocks tion ports resid. ports disp. stks. price ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARLEY -----------------------Million bushels--------------------- $/bu 1993/94 Jun-Aug 151 398 3 552 43 92 15 150 403 1.91 Sep-Nov 403 --- 11 413 38 27 15 80 333 2.02 Dec-Feb 333 --- 24 357 38 83 12 133 224 2.19 Mar-May 224 --- 34 258 56 40 24 119 139 2.24 Mkt. yr. 151 398 71 621 175 241 66 482 139 1.99 1994/95 Jun-Aug 139 375 24 538 43 122 20 186 352 2.00 Sep-Nov 352 --- 14 366 38 30 19 87 279 1.98 Dec-Feb 279 --- 14 292 38 51 11 99 193 2.05 Mar-May 193 --- 14 207 56 22 17 95 113 2.15 Mkt. yr. 139 375 66 580 175 226 66 467 113 2.03 1995/96 Jun-Aug 113 359 12 484 43 111 17 171 313 2.47 Sep-Nov 313 --- 8 321 39 29 11 78 243 2.82 Dec-Feb 243 --- 8 251 38 17 20 74 176 3.19 Mkt. yr. 113 359 35 507 175 190 65 430 77 2.90 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 77 400 45 522 175 200 45 420 102 2.65-3.05 OATS 1993/94 Jun-Aug 113 207 17 337 32 84 1.5 118 219 1.35 Sep-Nov 219 --- 35 254 29 30 0.7 60 194 1.33 Dec-Feb 194 --- 31 225 27 51 0.5 79 147 1.42 Mar-May 147 --- 24 170 37 28 0.2 65 106 1.39 Mkt. yr. 113 207 107 427 125 193 3.0 321 106 1.36 1994/95 Jun-Aug 106 229 20 355 32 103 0.2 135 220 1.19 Sep-Nov 220 --- 34 254 30 32 0.2 62 192 1.19 Dec-Feb 192 --- 23 215 28 38 0.4 66 149 1.21 Mar-May 149 --- 16 165 36 28 0.2 64 101 1.36 Mkt. yr. 106 229 93 428 125 201 1.0 327 101 1.22 1995/96 Jun-Aug 101 162 28 290 32 78 0.4 110 180 1.47 Sep-Nov 180 --- 26 206 30 23 0.5 53 153 1.49 Dec-Feb 153 --- 18 171 28 30 0.3 58 112 1.94 Mkt. yr. 101 162 85 347 125 150 2 277 71 1.65 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 71 175 85 331 125 135 2 262 69 1.55-1.95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Corn and sorghum are on a September 1 to August 31 marketing year. Barley and oats are on a June 1 to May 31 marketing year. Table 2--Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year Feed Total Animal Feed/ Beginning Corn Sorg. Barley Oats Grains Wheat grains Units animal September 1 unit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------Million ---------------------- Mil. Tons 1993/94 Sep-Nov 43.3 5.6 0.6 0.5 50.1 -1.0 49.0 Dec-Feb 31.7 2.7 1.8 0.8 37.1 1.1 38.1 Mar-May 24.2 2.1 0.9 0.5 27.6 -0.7 27.0 Jun-Aug 20.3 1.0 2.7 1.5 25.5 10.2 35.7 Mkt. yr. 119.5 11.5 5.9 3.4 140.3 9.6 149.8 84.0 1.78 % Change -11.2 -3.4 56.5 7.1 -8.5 145.2 -4.7 1.5 -6.2 1994/95 Sep-Nov 51.2 5.3 0.7 0.6 57.7 -0.8 56.9 Dec-Feb 38.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 41.8 0.7 42.5 Mar-May 29.6 1.7 0.5 0.5 32.2 -0.8 31.4 Jun-Aug 21.7 1.1 2.4 1.2 26.4 8.4 34.8 Mkt. yr. 140.6 10.0 4.68 2.8 158.1 7.5 165.6 84.6 1.96 % Change 17.7 -12.6 -20.9 -16.3 12.7 -21.6 10.5 0.7 9.7 1995/96 Sep-Nov 44.9 4.5 0.6 0.4 50.4 -2.7 47.7 Dec-Feb 34.7 1.8 0.4 0.5 37.4 0.3 37.7 Mkt. yr. 119.4 7.6 3.8 2.2 133.0 3.2 136.2 86.2 1.58 % Change -15.1 -24.1 -19.2 -21.7 -15.9 -57.6 -17.8 1.8 -19.3 1996/97 Mkt. yr. 130.8 10.2 4.4 2.3 147.7 6.1 153.8 86.3 1.78 % Change 9.6 33.3 15.2 5.5 11.0 92.2 12.9 0.1 12.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--Grain shipments and rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1993/94 ---------1994/95---------- ----1995/96---- Mkt. Yr. Mkt. Yr. Sep-Feb Feb Sep-Feb Feb ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Barge shipments 1/ 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.0 3.5 1.8 (Million ton/month) Barge rate index 2/ 93.6 160.8 161.1 151.7 191.7 172.3 (Dec 1984 = 100) Railcar loadings 3/ 25.3 28.4 28.4 29.4 29.0 28.8 (1,000 cars/week) Rail rate index 2/ 115.2 116.6 116.4 116.9 117.8 118.1 (Dec 1984 = 100) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Illinois & Mississippi rivers. Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/ Includes soybeans and all grains. Source: Association of American Railroads. Table 4--Cash feed grain prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn, Corn, Sorghum, Sorghum, Barley, Barley, Oats, No. 2, No. 2, No. 2, Yel No. 2, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 2, Yel, Yel, Texas Yel, feed, better, Heavy Ctrl. Gulf South Gulf Duluth Malting, white, IL ports Panhandle ports Minn. Minn. 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mkt. yr. $/bu $/bu $/cwt $/cwt $/bu $/bu $/bu 92/93 2.12 2.46 4.06 4.27 2.11 2.37 1.58 93/94 2.54 2.85 4.95 3/ 4.90 2.05 2.48 1.55 94/95 2.34 2.78 4.75 3/ 4.62 2.02 2.75 1.36 Monthly: 1994/95 Dec 2.16 2.61 4.49 4.59 2.00 2.81 NQ Jan 2.22 2.72 4.44 4.63 2.02 2.81 1.46 Feb 2.27 2.72 4.48 4.63 2.06 2.82 1.42 Mar 2.36 2.79 4.63 4.67 2.02 2.85 1.54 1995/96 Dec 3.36 3.76 6.55 6.93 2.92 3.98 2.50 Jan 3.53 4.00 6.75 7.05 2.94 4.00 2.40 Feb 3.71 4.18 7.25 7.25 3.00 3.47 2.31 Mar 3.92 4.34 7.38 7.50 2.86 NQ 2.47 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 3/ Revised. NQ = No quote. Table 5--Selected feed and feed by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybean Cotton- Corn Corn Meat & Dists.' Wheat Alfalfa meal seed gluten gluten bone dried midlgs, farm 44% slv. meal, feed, meal, meal, grains, Kansas price Decatur, 41% slv. IL IL Central Lawrence- City IL Memphis pts. pts. U.S. burg, IN 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------$/---------------------------------- Mkt. yr. 92/93 180.80 159.22 95.95 284.60 220.93 122.84 69.69 78.20 93/94 181.82 168.36 88.62 286.61 206.81 123.79 81.51 89.30 94/95 151.77 112.64 82.77 221.95 170.51 106.70 65.04 92.10 Monthly: 1994/95 Dec 145.40 114.20 84.30 239.40 163.10 120.75 71.30 93.60 Jan 145.10 106.75 82.20 230.50 176.25 105.60 60.00 89.00 Feb 149.40 97.50 81.00 221.25 181.00 97.00 62.50 89.00 Mar 145.70 100.30 82.10 215.60 180.75 93.75 73.90 89.00 1995/96 Dec 213.60 185.80 119.10 331.90 228.80 146.50 126.60 85.70 Jan 220.50 208.80 127.00 351.00 236.50 144.80 131.20 87.80 Feb 216.70 202.80 122.10 342.50 217.60 144.00 118.70 88.20 Mar 215.70 195.60 122.00 341.25 216.50 145.00 128.90 89.10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. 2/ Marketing year beginning May 1. 3/ Includes monthly & marketing year revisions from 1994/95. Table 6--Corn: Food, and industrial uses --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glucose Cereals and -----Alcohol--- & other Total Year HFCS dextrose Starch Fuel Beverage products F&I --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels 1993/94 Sep-Nov 98.23 55.79 61.71 112.23 20.69 29.42 378.08 Dec-Feb 95.00 49.58 57.60 119.33 20.47 29.10 371.07 Mar-May 117.68 56.79 61.57 112.44 20.92 29.74 399.15 Jun-Aug 131.28 60.89 62.66 114.26 20.92 29.74 419.74 Mkt year 442.18 223.05 243.54 458.26 83.00 118.00 1,568.04 1994/95 Sep-Nov 104.05 58.79 62.63 134.45 20.84 29.42 410.18 Dec-Feb 99.91 51.52 60.12 141.50 20.61 29.10 402.76 Mar-May 123.28 58.49 61.45 137.73 21.07 29.74 431.77 Jun-Aug 134.77 62.41 62.65 119.11 21.07 29.74 429.75 Mkt year 462.01 231.21 246.84 532.79 83.60 118.00 1,674.45 1995/96 Sep-Nov 109.26 60.66 61.02 121.12 20.32 29.42 401.80 Dec-Feb 104.43 52.89 56.37 120.82 20.10 29.10 383.71 Mkt year 485.00 240.00 245.00 440.00 81.50 118.00 1,609.50 1996/97 Mkt year 505.00 250.00 250.00 462.00 84.00 119.00 1,670.00 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7--Wholesale corn milling product and by-product prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Corn meal, Brewers' Sugar, HFCS, 42% Corn yellow, grits, destrose, tank cars, starch, New York Chicago Midwest Midwest fob Midwest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $/cwt $/cwt cents/lb cents/lb $/cwt Mkt. yr. 1/ 92/93 13.39 9.68 24.50 13.30 10.70 93/94 14.49 10.98 25.44 14.63 12.61 94/95 2/ 13.22 10.67 25.62 12.27 12.43 Monthly 1994/95 Jan 13.04 10.49 25.50 11.60 11.96 Feb 13.04 10.49 25.50 11.80 12.20 Mar 13.13 10.58 25.50 11.80 12.32 Apr 13.17 10.62 25.50 11.80 12.65 1995/96 Jan 17.01 12.91 25.50 13.15 14.57 Feb 17.36 13.26 25.50 13.15 15.11 Mar 2/ 17.87 13.77 25.50 13.15 15.50 Apr 3/ 19.46 15.36 25.50 13.15 16.19 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1. Table 8--U.S. feed grain exports by selected destinations 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94------ ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. Sep-Feb Mkt. yr. Sep-Feb Sep-Feb ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CORN --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Japan 12,322 7,111 15,849 7,650 7,412 Taiwan 5,077 3,005 6,027 2,761 2,925 Former USSR 2,909 2,820 140 33 27 South Africa 12 11 187 0 329 Sub-Saharan Africa 394 190 449 266 272 EU 1,765 696 2,836 957 2,078 Egypt 1,553 939 2,569 1,408 1,284 Canada 603 185 1,096 461 347 China 0 0 3,240 774 2,207 East Europe 48 48 112 67 134 Algeria 1,176 688 1,000 704 360 S. Korea 508 87 8,005 3,748 4,551 Mexico 1,468 169 2,985 1,905 2,460 Others 5,813 3,423 10,723 5,606 6,609 Total 33,649 19,372 55,218 26,339 30,994 SORGHUM Mexico 2,972 1,139 2,557 1,355 771 Japan 1,640 1,087 2,050 1,250 1,040 Others 432 273 1,008 545 1,213 Total 5,044 2,499 5,615 3,150 3,024 ---------------------------------------------------------- ------1993/94--- ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. June-Feb Mkt. yr. June-Feb June-Feb BARLEY ---------------------------------------------------------- Saudi Arabia 344 5 203 34 244 Israel 335 266 468 427 42 Jordan 251 199 51 51 0 Others 504 442 671 518 732 Total 1,433 912 1,392 1029 1,019 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Bureau of the Census Table 9--U.S. imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Country/region ------1993/94--- ------1994/95------ 1995/96 Mkt. yr. June-Feb Mkt. yr. June-Feb June-Feb ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OATS --------------------Thousand tons--------------------- Canada 1,011 795 1,161 888 1,142 Finland 526 391 374 374 22 Sweden 303 245 70 70 62 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 1,840 1,431 1,605 1,332 1,227 BARLEY, MALTING Canada 453 275 715 523 510 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1/ 453 275 716 524 510 BARLEY, OTHER 2/ Canada 1,098 543 702 581 102 Other 5 0 16 16 6 Total 1/ 1,103 543 719 597 107 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Mainly consists of barley for feeding, includes seed barley starting January 1994. Source: Bureau of the Census END-END-END