WASDE-392 November 12, 2002 NOTE: World supply and demand estimates for wheat (see pages 16 and 17) incorporate revised estimates of China's wheat consumption and stocks. The changes are due to indications that USDA's previous estimates of China's wheat stocks were too low. The changes reflect information collected by the U.S. Agricultural Attache in Beijing, trade sources, and statements by Chinese officials regarding total grain stocks. Internal prices and trade patterns also strongly suggest stocks are much more abundant than USDA's previous estimates. Since production and trade estimates are unchanged, except for higher projected exports for 2002/03, higher stocks can only be attained by lowering use, specifically non-feed use. Per capita consumption of wheat is reduced slightly starting in 1990/91, with marginally stronger reductions from 1994/95 to 2002/03 as rising incomes led urban consumers to switch to other foods. Estimates of wheat feed use are raised 2 million tons per year for 2002/03 and the previous 2 years. Old and revised historical supply and demand estimates for China wheat are available at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Historical world wheat supply and demand estimates since 1990/91 reflecting the China revisions will be released tomorrow, November 13, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time in the Foreign Agricultural Service report Grains: World Markets and Trade (http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain). WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are down 13 million bushels from last month due to lower production and smaller projected imports. Estimated production is revised down 8 million bushels because of reduced area. Some of the other spring wheat and durum acres that producers indicated they intended to harvest for grain during the collection of data for the Small Grains Summary 2002 report were not harvested for grain. Projected imports are reduced 5 million bushels from last month. The projected price range is raised 10 cents on the low end to $3.65 to $3.95 per bushel. Projected world 2002/03 wheat production is down marginally from last month as reductions for Australia, Algeria, and Bulgaria more than offset gains for Kazakstan, Russia, and Afghanistan. The smaller projected Australian crop results in a 2-million-ton reduction in exports for their October-September marketing year. However, relatively strong exports during July-September 2002 result in only a 1-million-ton reduction for the July-June international trade year. Projected global imports are up from last month, led by a 2-million-ton increase for the EU. The larger global imports and reduced Australian exports are offset by higher projected exports for Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe. Global stocks are up sharply due to historical revisions in China stocks. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are up 84 million bushels from last month due to a 34-million-bushel gain in production and reduced use. Projected feed and residual use is up 25 million bushels due to lower sorghum feeding. However, exports are down 75 million bushels because of increased competition. Projected sorghum exports are 25 million bushels above last month due to expanding global imports and reduced competition. In addition, forecast sorghum production is reduced slightly. The smaller crop and expanding exports are only partially offset by lower feed and residual use, lowering ending stocks of sorghum 10 million bushels. The projected price range for corn is down 10 cents on each end of the range to $2.20 to $2.60 per bushel. Global coarse grain production, trade, and use are down slightly from last month, but ending stocks are higher. There are numerous country-specific production changes from last month, highlighted by larger corn production in Argentina and Eastern Europe, lower corn production in Brazil, lower Mexico sorghum production, and lower production of barley in Australia. The larger corn crops result in expanded corn export prospects for Argentina and Eastern Europe. Plus, projected exports by China are up 500,000 tons. With global imports up only slightly from last month, U.S. export prospects are reduced. U.S. sorghum export prospects are improved because of a sharply smaller sorghum crop in Mexico and reduced exports (and higher imports) for Australia. Larger China corn stocks are due to lower projected feed use in 2002/03 and the previous 2 years because of increased wheat feeding estimates. RICE: U.S. 2002/03 rice supplies are projected at a record 264 million cwt, slightly above last month and 4 percent above 2001/02. Rice production is forecast at 212 million cwt, fractionally above last month and 1 million cwt below the 2001/02 record. U.S. average yield for 2002/03 is forecast at a record 6,611 pounds per acre, slightly above last month and 3 percent above last year. Long-grain production is forecast at 157.5 million cwt, slightly above last month, but 5 percent below the 2001/02 record. Combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 54.5 million cwt, unchanged from last month, but 14 percent above 2001/02. Exports are projected at a record 100 million cwt, 3 percent above last month and 6 percent above 2001/02. Exports of rough rice are projected at a record 35 million cwt, 9 percent above last month and 10 percent above the previous high in 2001/02. Exports of milled rice (rough-equivalent basis) are projected at 65 million cwt, unchanged from last month, but 4 percent above 2001/02. Ending stocks, at 39 million cwt, are down 7 percent from last month, nearly the same as 2001/02, and the largest since 1986/87. The season-average price range for 2002/03 is raised 20 cents per cwt on the low end to $3.70 to $4.00 per cwt, down from $4.17 per cwt in 2001/02 and the lowest since 1986/87. Global 2002/03 rice production, imports, exports, and ending stocks are raised slightly from a month ago. The slight increase in global rice production is due primarily to a larger crop projected for Vietnam. Rice imports are raised for the Philippines, Nigeria, and Cote d'Ivoire. Rice exports are raised for Vietnam, Argentina, and the United States. Global rice ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 106.1 million tons, up slightly from last month but 20 percent below 2001/02 and the lowest since 1987/88. OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2002/03 are up this month as increased production is only partially offset by higher use prospects. U.S. oilseed production, at 82.7 million tons, is up 0.8 million tons this month as a larger soybean crop offsets reductions for peanut and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 2.69 billion bushels, up 36 million bushels from last month, based on a higher average yield. Projected U.S. soybean stocks are increased 10 million bushels to 185 million bushels as production increases more than use. Soybean exports are projected at 890 million bushels, up 40 million bushels from last month due to stronger than expected early-season shipments, especially to China. However, soybean crush is lowered due to reduced soybean meal export prospects. Soybean meal exports are lowered 0.4 million short tons to 6.2 million tons, based on increased meal exports from South America. Soybean oil ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at 1,485 million pounds, down 145 million pounds from last month due mostly to reduced production. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2002/03 is lowered 10 cents on each end to $4.95 to $5.85 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are raised 0.5 cents on both ends of the range to 19.5 to 20.5 cents per pound, due to lower projected ending stocks. Soybean meal prices are projected at $155 to $185 per short ton, down $10 on both ends of the range. Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 321.7 million tons, up 3.8 million tons from last month. Foreign production is forecast at 238.9 million tons, up 3.0 million tons, based largely on increased soybean production. Soybean production in Argentina is forecast at a record 32.5 million tons, up 1.5 million tons, based on increased area and higher yields. Soybean production for Brazil is raised 1 million tons to a record 49 million tons, based on higher projected area, especially in Southern Brazil as producers switch more area from corn. Soybean production for China is increased 0.8 million tons to 16.4 million tons, based on higher area. Australian rapeseed production is reduced 200,000 tons to 800,000 tons because of severe drought. Global oilseed ending stocks are increased 3.4 million tons this month to 32.8 million tons based on larger soybean stocks. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal-year 2002/03 is decreased 503,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Lower beginning stocks result largely from increased sales ahead of the October 1 imposition of 2002/03 marketing allotments. Beet sugar is decreased 60,000 tons due to lower forecast sugarbeet area and yields. Cane sugar is decreased 80,000 short tons due to lower projected sugar recovery from sugarcane in Louisiana. Sugar deliveries for domestic food and beverage use are lowered 200,000 tons to account for the pre- allotment sales. The year-ending stocks-to-use ratio is 12.7 percent, compared with 15.5 percent last month. For 2001/02, final reporting from processors lowers production and exports, while revised U.S. Customs data increase imports. Year-ending stocks are 1.295 million tons, down 363,000 tons from last month's estimate. Increased sales for domestic food and beverage use in September more than offset decreased exports. The statistical discrepancy between total supply and reported uses is 106,000 tons. The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2001/02 is 12.5 percent, compared with 16.6 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast meat production for 2002 and 2003 is little changed this month. Third-quarter 2002 poultry production is raised due to higher-than-expected slaughter, but lower eggs set data over the past several weeks point toward slower broiler production growth in the fourth quarter. Third-quarter broiler exports are raised to reflect strong shipments to Russia during August. This month, forecast total egg production is unchanged for 2002 and is raised for 2003. Table egg production is forecast slightly higher, but the gains will be mostly offset by declines in hatching egg production. Livestock and poultry price forecasts are little changed this month. Projected milk production for 2002/03 is raised from last month. Additional milk production is expected to continue pressuring already weak product markets and lead to larger CCC net removals of nonfat dry milk and generally lower product prices. Pressured by weak butter prices, the Class IV price for 2002/03 is projected to average $10.45 to$11.35 per cwt, and weak cheese prices likely will result in the Class III price averaging $10.10 to $10.80 per cwt. The all milk price is projected at $11.65 to $12.35 per cwt. COTTON: The 2002/03 U.S. cotton projections include lower supplies and disappearance, with ending stocks unchanged from last month. Beginning stocks are reduced nearly 200,000 bales, based on final 2001/02 stocks data released by the Bureau of the Census. Forecast production is reduced about 250,000 bales to 17.8 million bales, mainly reflecting poor weather in the Southeast. Domestic mill use is also reduced, due to weaker than anticipated recovery in recent monthly mill use rates. The export forecast is reduced to 10.8 million bales, down 200,000 bales from both last month and last season. Export sales currently lag year-ago levels by about 25 percent; however, this month's reductions in key foreign crop estimates indicate that U.S. sales are likely to strengthen. The world supply and demand situation for 2002/03 includes lower production and consumption compared with last month; trade is revised down slightly and ending stocks are revised up marginally. With respect to production, a 1.0-million-bale increase in China's crop and a smaller increase for Tajikistan are more than offset by reductions in Pakistan, the United States, Greece, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Brazil, and Cote d'Ivoire. Similarly, consumption is raised 500,000 bales in China, due to strong growth in yarn production, but this increase is more than offset by reductions for the United States, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Egypt, and others. World trade is reduced 1.5 percent based on weaker demand in importing countries. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 34. APPROVED: JAMES R. MOSELEY ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on December 10, 2002. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: Jan. 10, Feb. 11, Mar. 11, Apr. 10, May 12, June 11, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11. Announcing Agricultural Outlook Forum 2003: You're invited to USDA's 79th annual Outlook forum on February 20-21, 2003, in Arlington, Virginia. The meeting, which attracted 1,400 attendees in 2002, will provide timely forecasts of farm prospects and insight into major trends affecting the farm economy. For complete details access www.usda.gov/oce or send e-mail agforum@usda.gov. Leading analysts will be on hand to discuss planting, trade, and price prospects for farm commodities and farm income prospects for 2003. Meteorologists will discuss the impact of El Nino on global crops. With a theme of Competing in the 21st Century, the program will feature the potential for export competition from Central and Eastern Europe, Brazil, and Asia, as well as progress in bilateral trade agreements and the WTO. Focus sessions will highlight challenges producers face in the competitive arena, ranging from the growing complexity and cost of regulation, to access to markets and information, to dealing with food safety and changing eating habits. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. For information on e-mail subscriptions or other questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. Mail subscriptions cost $50.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. 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WASDE-392-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 1,841.45 2,402.54 232.77 1,863.77 538.77 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,862.91 2,401.68 236.11 1,897.75 503.93 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 1,814.41 2,275.47 227.02 1,904.35 371.12 November : 1,812.77 2,316.70 228.24 1,895.05 421.66 Wheat : 2000/01 : 583.85 790.84 102.82 586.50 204.34 2001/02 (Est.) : 578.72 783.06 108.95 584.85 198.22 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 569.77 729.33 100.00 598.16 131.18 November : 569.34 767.55 101.60 595.10 172.46 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 860.05 1,069.91 105.84 880.90 189.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 887.46 1,076.46 101.25 902.73 173.73 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 863.40 1,032.89 101.11 898.47 134.41 November : 861.65 1,035.38 100.38 892.31 143.07 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 397.55 541.80 24.12 396.37 145.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 396.73 542.15 25.91 410.17 131.98 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 381.24 513.25 25.91 407.72 105.53 November : 381.79 513.77 26.26 407.64 106.12 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 321.79 405.13 83.82 253.85 67.46 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 295.36 368.32 85.75 248.14 34.43 November : 295.86 368.68 84.58 248.27 35.84 Wheat : 2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85 2001/02 (Est.) : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 44.22 67.68 25.86 31.73 10.09 November : 43.99 67.32 25.86 31.73 9.73 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.71 217.32 45.09 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 244.52 292.38 56.86 212.49 23.03 November : 245.23 293.10 55.59 212.62 24.89 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89 2001/02 (Est.) : 6.67 7.97 2.94 3.81 1.22 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 6.63 8.27 3.04 3.92 1.31 November : 6.64 8.27 3.13 3.92 1.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-392-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 1,501.63 1,981.64 144.67 1,608.41 461.34 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,541.12 1,996.55 152.29 1,643.89 436.48 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 1,519.05 1,907.15 141.26 1,656.21 336.69 November : 1,516.91 1,948.02 143.66 1,646.78 385.82 Wheat : 2000/01 : 523.09 701.79 73.92 550.19 180.49 2001/02 (Est.) : 525.46 703.03 82.79 552.12 177.07 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 525.56 661.66 74.14 566.42 121.09 November : 525.35 700.24 75.74 563.36 162.73 Coarse grains 5/ : 2000/01 : 586.92 745.20 49.22 665.52 136.30 2001/02 (Est.) : 625.60 759.34 46.54 685.41 128.64 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 618.88 740.51 44.25 685.98 111.38 November : 616.41 742.28 44.79 679.69 118.18 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 391.61 534.65 21.53 392.70 144.54 2001/02 (Est.) : 390.06 534.18 22.97 406.36 130.76 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 374.61 504.98 22.88 403.80 104.22 November : 375.15 505.50 23.13 403.73 104.91 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2000/01 : 88.74 134.04 26.59 91.96 42.71 2001/02 (Est.) : 98.37 141.07 29.00 94.12 47.49 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 88.50 135.84 29.91 96.41 39.83 November : 88.14 135.63 29.45 96.22 40.00 : United States 2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.74 8.86 6.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.43 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 18.07 25.70 11.00 7.90 6.80 November : 17.82 25.27 10.80 7.70 6.80 : Foreign 3/ 2000/01 : 71.56 112.92 19.85 83.10 36.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 78.07 114.75 18.00 86.40 40.07 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 70.43 110.15 18.91 88.51 33.03 November : 70.32 110.37 18.65 88.52 33.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-392-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 313.44 348.54 71.46 254.63 35.68 2001/02 (Est.) : 323.52 359.21 67.97 264.59 36.93 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 317.89 354.11 71.54 267.26 29.34 November : 321.66 358.59 71.83 267.89 32.78 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 175.33 181.46 56.93 175.86 5.35 2001/02 (Est.) : 182.51 187.85 59.98 181.62 5.63 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 185.69 191.20 61.06 185.55 5.53 November : 185.98 191.61 61.32 185.44 5.65 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 89.08 97.23 34.96 88.33 8.38 2001/02 (Est.) : 91.03 99.42 36.64 90.90 7.62 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 91.79 99.08 37.66 92.15 6.40 November : 91.83 99.45 38.05 92.01 6.51 : : United States Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82 2001/02 (Est.) : 89.83 98.30 29.94 50.62 6.88 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 81.94 89.26 23.93 49.63 5.80 November : 82.72 90.01 25.02 49.22 6.00 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.26 32.02 0.40 2001/02 (Est.) : 38.97 40.40 7.03 33.08 0.29 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 38.38 39.63 6.20 33.15 0.28 November : 38.01 39.32 5.85 33.19 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 9.51 12.39 1.05 9.65 1.69 2001/02 (Est.) : 9.65 12.81 1.56 9.96 1.30 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 9.59 12.38 1.37 10.03 0.98 November : 9.51 12.28 1.32 10.05 0.91 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 228.55 253.85 43.49 205.56 27.86 2001/02 (Est.) : 233.69 260.90 38.03 213.96 30.06 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 235.96 264.86 47.60 217.63 23.53 November : 238.93 268.57 46.81 218.67 26.78 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 137.12 141.78 49.68 143.83 4.95 2001/02 (Est.) : 143.54 147.45 52.95 148.54 5.35 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 147.31 151.58 54.85 152.40 5.25 November : 147.97 152.29 55.47 152.25 5.37 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 79.57 84.84 33.91 78.69 6.69 2001/02 (Est.) : 81.38 86.61 35.09 80.94 6.32 2002/03 (Proj.) : October : 82.20 86.70 36.29 82.12 5.42 November : 82.32 87.17 36.73 81.96 5.60 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-392-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.4 60.4 Harvested : 53.1 48.6 46.0 45.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.0 40.2 35.3 35.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 950 876 777 777 Production : 2,232 1,957 1,625 1,616 Imports : 90 108 85 80 Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,487 2,474 Food : 950 928 930 930 Seed : 80 82 86 86 Feed and residual : 304 193 150 150 Domestic, total : 1,334 1,202 1,166 1,166 Exports : 1,062 961 950 950 Use, total : 2,396 2,164 2,116 2,116 Ending stocks : 876 777 371 358 CCC inventory : 97 99 75 75 Free stocks : 779 678 296 283 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.55- 3.95 3.65- 3.95 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,957 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941 Domestic use : 467 304 258 95 78 1,202 Exports : 348 216 199 147 52 961 Use, total : 815 520 457 242 130 2,164 Ending stocks, total : 363 230 78 73 33 777 : 2002/03 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616 Supply, total 3/ : 973 617 417 319 147 2,474 Domestic use : 465 257 257 101 86 1,166 Exports : 365 275 120 155 35 950 Use, total : 830 532 377 256 121 2,116 Ending stocks, total : November : 143 85 40 63 27 358 October : 153 87 40 63 27 371 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-392-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.2 98.2 Harvested : 87.7 83.6 84.3 84.3 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.11 3.13 2.90 2.91 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.1 45.1 Production : 272.9 261.7 244.3 245.1 Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 292.1 292.8 Feed and residual : 159.8 158.9 151.1 151.3 Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 61.1 61.1 Domestic, total : 215.1 217.0 212.2 212.3 Exports : 56.6 54.7 56.9 55.6 Use, total : 271.7 271.7 269.0 267.9 Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.1 23.0 24.9 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Free stocks : 52.4 44.9 22.9 24.7 Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.2 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.6 75.8 78.8 78.8 Harvested : 72.4 68.8 70.5 70.5 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 136.9 138.2 127.2 127.6 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,599 1,599 Production : 9,915 9,507 8,970 9,003 Imports : 7 10 15 15 Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,584 10,618 Feed and residual : 5,842 5,874 5,650 5,675 Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,054 2,170 2,170 Domestic, total : 7,799 7,928 7,820 7,845 Exports : 1,941 1,889 2,000 1,925 Use, total : 9,740 9,817 9,820 9,770 Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,599 764 848 CCC inventory : 8 5 5 5 Free stocks : 1,891 1,594 759 843 Outstanding loans : 253 213 200 200 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.30- 2.70 2.20- 2.60 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing yeabeginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-392-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.3 9.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.5 7.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 51.4 50.7 Beginning stocks : 65 42 59 59 Production : 471 515 387 381 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 536 556 446 441 Feed and residual : 222 211 135 115 Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45 Total domestic : 258 256 180 160 Exports : 237 241 220 245 Use, total : 494 497 400 405 Ending stocks, total : 42 59 46 36 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.95 2.30- 2.70 2.25- 2.65 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 54.9 54.9 Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93 Production : 319 249 227 227 Imports : 29 24 25 25 Supply, total : 459 380 345 345 Feed and residual : 123 88 80 80 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 295 260 252 252 Exports : 58 27 20 20 Use, total : 353 287 272 272 Ending stocks, total : 106 93 73 73 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.40- 2.80 2.40- 2.80 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.4 56.8 56.8 Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63 Production : 150 117 119 119 Imports : 106 96 100 100 Supply, total : 332 286 282 282 Feed and residual : 189 148 150 150 Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72 Total domestic : 257 220 222 222 Exports : 2 3 2 2 Use, total : 259 223 224 224 Ending stocks, total : 73 63 58 58 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.65- 1.95 1.65- 1.95 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-392-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.06 3.34 3.23 3.23 Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.21 3.21 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,281 6,429 6,608 6,611 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 39.0 39.0 Production : 190.9 213.0 211.9 212.0 Imports : 10.9 13.2 13.0 13.0 Supply, total : 229.2 254.7 263.9 264.0 Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 121.7 125.0 125.0 Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 94.1 97.0 100.0 Rough : 22.8 31.7 32.0 35.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 62.4 65.0 65.0 Use, total : 200.7 215.8 222.0 225.0 Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 41.9 39.0 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.17 3.50- 4.00 3.70- 4.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,130 Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.8 Production : 128.8 165.3 157.4 157.5 Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 186.1 193.5 193.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 85.8 88.7 88.7 Exports 8/ : 65.3 73.5 76.0 79.0 Use, total : 141.5 159.3 164.7 167.7 Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 28.8 25.8 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733 Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.7 10.7 Production : 62.1 47.7 54.5 54.5 Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.1 68.9 68.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.9 36.3 36.3 Exports 8/ : 17.9 20.6 21.0 21.0 Use, total : 59.2 56.4 57.3 57.3 Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 11.6 11.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-392-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 73.0 Harvested : 72.4 73.0 71.8 71.8 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.1 39.6 37.0 37.5 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 290 248 208 208 Production : 2,758 2,891 2,654 2,690 Imports : 4 2 3 2 Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,865 2,900 Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,675 1,660 Exports : 996 1,063 850 890 Seed : 91 89 87 87 Residual : 78 82 78 78 Use, total : 2,804 2,933 2,690 2,715 Ending stocks : 248 208 175 185 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.35 5.05- 5.95 4.95 - 5.85 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,385 2,360 Production : 18,420 18,898 18,930 18,760 Imports : 73 45 65 65 Supply, total : 20,488 21,820 21,380 21,185 Domestic : 16,210 16,960 17,350 17,400 Exports : 1,401 2,500 2,400 2,300 Use, total : 17,611 19,460 19,750 19,700 Ending stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,630 1,485 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.46 19.00- 19.50- : 22.00 22.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 293 383 225 240 Production : 39,385 40,346 39,885 39,470 Imports : 51 110 240 240 Supply, total : 39,729 40,840 40,350 39,950 Domestic : 31,643 33,124 33,500 33,500 Exports : 7,703 7,475 6,600 6,200 Use, total : 39,346 40,599 40,100 39,700 Ending stocks : 383 240 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 167.73 165.00- 155.00- : 195.00 185.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-392-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===================== : : Estimate : October November ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,201 1,658 1,295 Production 2/3/ : 8,770 7,906 8,445 8,305 Beet sugar : 4,680 3,914 4,375 4,315 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,090 3,992 4,070 3,990 Imports 2/ : 1,591 1,539 1,565 1,565 TRQ 5/ : 1,277 1,149 1,245 1,245 Other program 6/ : 238 305 260 260 Non-program 7/ : 76 85 60 60 Total supply : 12,580 11,646 11,668 11,165 : Exports 2/8/ : 141 108 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,130 10,137 9,980 9,780 Domestic food use : 9,998 9,945 9,800 9,600 Other 9/ : 132 193 180 180 Miscellaneous 10/ : 108 106 0 0 Use, total : 10,379 10,350 10,105 9,905 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,201 1,295 1,563 1,260 Private : 1,417 1,082 NA NA Other 11/ : 784 213 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 21.2 12.5 15.5 12.7 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on October Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected 2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,020); HI 251 (275); LA 1,587 (1,520); TX 174 (175); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Mostly residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, CCC-owned sugar. WASDE-392-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.38 14.38 Harvested : 13.05 13.83 12.86 12.86 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 632 705 674 665 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.60 7.43 Production : 17.19 20.30 18.07 17.82 Imports : 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 25.70 25.27 Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.90 7.70 Exports : 6.74 11.00 11.00 10.80 Use, total : 15.60 18.72 18.90 18.50 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.48 0.18 0.00 -0.03 Ending stocks : 6.00 7.43 6.80 6.80 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 31.5 34.2 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August-September 2002. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 35.7 percent. WASDE-392-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 206.99 583.85 101.76 107.04 586.50 102.82 204.34 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85 Total foreign : 181.14 523.09 99.31 98.76 550.19 73.92 180.49 Major exporters 4/ : 24.58 171.58 3.44 54.60 111.60 59.74 28.26 Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59 Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 4.00 6.89 15.93 4.63 Canada : 7.70 26.80 0.20 3.70 7.73 17.32 9.66 EU-15 : 12.65 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 13.38 Major importers 5/ : 121.27 143.90 50.37 13.40 204.49 2.59 108.46 Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70 China : 102.94 99.64 0.20 10.00 110.28 0.62 91.88 N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.45 28.87 2.73 9.99 28.88 2.34 4.84 India : 13.08 76.37 0.44 0.50 66.82 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 204.34 578.72 109.07 108.52 584.85 108.95 198.22 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.26 32.72 26.16 21.15 Total foreign : 180.49 525.46 106.14 103.26 552.12 82.79 177.07 Major exporters 4/ : 28.26 151.79 9.89 54.42 111.24 55.20 23.49 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55 Australia : 4.63 24.00 0.08 4.00 7.03 16.41 5.27 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.30 3.20 7.54 16.50 6.49 EU-15 : 13.38 91.73 9.50 47.18 91.93 11.49 11.18 Major importers 5/ : 108.46 140.31 50.24 12.45 203.79 4.12 91.10 Brazil : 0.70 3.25 7.10 0.40 10.15 0.00 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.10 9.00 108.75 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.40 0.31 29.18 0.25 5.78 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 9.25 1.38 9.08 0.35 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.69 1.74 10.94 30.83 4.14 6.29 India : 21.50 68.76 0.03 0.50 61.30 3.00 26.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.59 19.66 68.65 13.80 17.80 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.55 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.40 Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.08 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-392-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 159.56 569.77 99.01 112.86 598.16 100.00 131.18 November : 198.22 569.34 101.38 115.22 595.10 101.60 172.46 United States : October : 21.15 44.22 2.31 4.08 31.73 25.86 10.09 November : 21.15 43.99 2.18 4.08 31.73 25.86 9.73 Total foreign : October : 138.41 525.56 96.70 108.78 566.42 74.14 121.09 November : 177.07 525.35 99.20 111.14 563.36 75.74 162.73 Major exporters 4/ : October : 24.39 146.50 5.41 58.73 115.53 41.80 18.98 November : 23.49 144.00 7.41 59.23 116.03 39.80 19.07 Argentina Oct : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66 Nov : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66 Australia Oct : 5.18 13.00 0.10 4.20 7.18 8.00 3.10 Nov : 5.27 11.00 0.10 4.20 7.18 6.00 3.19 Canada Oct : 6.49 15.50 0.30 3.70 8.05 9.00 5.24 Nov : 6.49 15.50 0.30 3.70 8.05 9.00 5.24 EU-15 Oct : 12.18 104.00 5.00 50.78 95.70 15.50 9.98 Nov : 11.18 103.50 7.00 51.28 96.20 15.50 9.99 Major importers 5/ : October : 51.54 140.59 46.40 8.75 204.56 3.43 30.54 November : 91.10 140.29 46.90 10.75 201.03 3.98 73.28 Brazil Oct : 0.90 3.30 6.50 0.35 9.90 0.00 0.80 Nov : 0.90 3.30 6.50 0.35 9.90 0.00 0.80 China Oct : 37.33 92.00 1.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 19.33 Nov : 76.59 92.00 1.00 7.00 106.11 1.50 61.97 N. Africa 6/ Oct : 5.48 11.41 16.50 0.30 28.68 0.20 4.51 Nov : 5.78 11.11 17.00 0.30 29.08 0.20 4.61 Pakistan Oct : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 Nov : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 SE Asia 7/ Oct : 1.61 0.00 9.80 1.80 9.75 0.23 1.43 Nov : 1.61 0.00 9.80 1.80 9.70 0.28 1.43 Selected other : East. Europe Oct : 6.34 31.00 2.20 10.69 31.16 2.82 5.56 Nov : 6.29 30.80 2.25 10.44 30.58 3.35 5.41 India Oct : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 64.05 6.00 28.00 Nov : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 64.05 6.00 28.00 FSU-12 8/ Oct : 17.80 94.21 3.17 24.56 74.84 16.66 23.67 Nov : 17.80 95.75 3.12 24.66 74.93 19.16 22.57 Russia Oct : 6.40 49.00 0.50 17.50 41.50 5.50 8.90 Nov : 6.40 49.50 0.50 17.50 41.50 6.50 8.40 Kazakstan Oct : 5.20 12.00 0.02 1.70 5.57 5.00 6.65 Nov : 5.20 13.00 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.55 Ukraine Oct : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 6.00 5.20 Nov : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 7.50 3.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-392-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 209.85 860.05 102.47 587.03 880.90 105.84 189.00 United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70 Total foreign : 161.00 586.92 99.75 427.21 665.52 49.22 136.30 Major exporters 4/ : 9.77 62.29 3.21 36.13 48.44 19.68 7.15 Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22 Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.57 6.09 4.36 1.11 Canada : 5.67 24.03 2.59 20.20 24.32 3.64 4.33 Major importers 5/ : 31.79 155.71 69.39 161.75 217.85 10.79 28.25 EU-15 : 19.52 107.19 3.03 78.20 102.81 10.05 16.88 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33 Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.14 36.07 0.02 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.72 1.46 South Korea : 1.04 0.47 8.89 6.52 9.17 0.00 1.23 Selected other : China : 102.72 113.95 2.42 93.38 128.19 7.30 83.60 East. Europe : 4.75 37.01 2.91 30.66 40.99 1.25 2.43 FSU-12 6/ : 3.55 49.49 1.09 29.09 45.69 2.46 5.97 Russia : 0.88 28.20 0.76 15.60 26.78 0.57 2.49 Ukraine : 1.19 12.99 0.07 7.55 10.83 1.45 1.98 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 189.00 887.46 100.11 602.04 902.73 101.25 173.73 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 158.97 217.32 54.71 45.09 Total foreign : 136.30 625.60 97.55 443.07 685.41 46.54 128.64 Major exporters 4/ : 7.15 61.43 5.10 36.25 48.45 18.41 6.82 Argentina : 1.22 18.45 0.03 6.20 8.26 10.11 1.32 Australia : 1.11 11.08 0.15 5.04 6.55 4.35 1.44 Canada : 4.33 22.41 3.87 20.61 24.84 2.50 3.26 Major importers 5/ : 28.25 158.38 67.15 161.87 218.05 5.23 30.49 EU-15 : 16.88 105.71 4.25 77.85 102.29 4.91 19.64 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.99 15.52 20.14 0.00 2.38 Mexico : 3.06 26.97 8.86 20.27 36.21 0.02 2.66 Southeast Asia : 1.46 15.27 3.75 14.26 18.94 0.31 1.24 South Korea : 1.23 0.47 8.83 6.73 9.39 0.00 1.14 Selected other : China : 83.60 121.89 1.97 97.11 131.78 8.63 67.06 East. Europe : 2.43 51.79 1.79 37.30 47.53 4.06 4.43 FSU-12 6/ : 5.97 62.28 1.01 33.66 51.43 6.73 11.10 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.81 17.65 29.10 2.60 6.75 Ukraine : 1.98 16.97 0.05 9.04 12.96 3.50 2.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-392-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 169.49 863.40 98.52 595.62 898.47 101.11 134.41 November : 173.73 861.65 99.47 591.77 892.31 100.38 143.07 United States : October : 45.09 244.52 2.78 151.20 212.49 56.86 23.03 November : 45.09 245.23 2.78 151.33 212.62 55.59 24.89 Total foreign : October : 124.40 618.88 95.74 444.43 685.98 44.25 111.38 November : 128.64 616.41 96.69 440.45 679.69 44.79 118.18 Major exporters 4/ : October : 6.72 54.10 5.15 33.60 45.82 14.66 5.49 November : 6.82 53.57 5.15 34.29 46.51 13.46 5.57 Argentina Oct : 1.32 16.27 0.03 6.08 8.19 8.11 1.32 Nov : 1.32 16.74 0.03 6.07 8.18 8.61 1.30 Australia Oct : 1.34 8.53 0.00 5.04 6.36 2.85 0.66 Nov : 1.44 7.53 0.00 5.54 6.86 1.35 0.76 Canada Oct : 3.26 19.40 4.71 18.26 22.72 1.88 2.77 Nov : 3.26 19.40 4.71 18.26 22.72 1.88 2.77 Major importers 5/ : October : 30.13 157.71 66.51 161.92 218.94 6.35 29.06 November : 30.49 156.20 67.53 158.86 216.29 6.35 31.59 EU-15 Oct : 19.78 105.59 2.79 77.14 102.48 6.13 19.54 Nov : 19.64 105.49 2.78 75.11 100.45 6.13 21.33 Japan Oct : 2.39 0.23 19.09 14.86 19.49 0.00 2.22 Nov : 2.38 0.23 18.69 14.56 19.19 0.00 2.12 Mexico Oct : 2.66 26.72 10.35 21.26 37.20 0.02 2.52 Nov : 2.66 25.37 11.25 20.81 36.75 0.02 2.52 Southeast Asia Oct : 1.28 14.72 3.91 13.90 18.59 0.20 1.12 Nov : 1.24 14.72 3.91 13.90 18.59 0.20 1.08 South Korea Oct : 0.87 0.47 8.81 7.11 9.36 0.00 0.78 Nov : 1.14 0.47 8.81 6.51 9.17 0.00 1.24 Selected other : China Oct : 63.25 132.90 2.51 100.36 136.25 9.52 52.88 Nov : 67.06 132.90 2.31 98.26 134.05 10.02 58.19 East. Europe Oct : 4.40 48.22 1.55 36.39 46.63 2.99 4.55 Nov : 4.43 48.92 1.55 36.74 46.98 3.34 4.57 FSU-12 6/ Oct : 11.08 58.77 1.12 34.40 51.72 7.72 11.52 Nov : 11.10 60.33 1.03 35.57 52.79 8.62 11.05 Russia Oct : 6.76 32.90 0.80 18.50 30.00 3.11 7.35 Nov : 6.75 33.90 0.80 19.20 30.60 3.51 7.35 Ukraine Oct : 2.54 16.55 0.06 9.05 12.58 4.05 2.52 Nov : 2.54 16.55 0.06 9.05 12.58 4.55 2.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-392-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 171.11 587.34 75.39 426.16 605.00 77.43 153.46 United States : 43.63 251.85 0.17 148.40 198.10 49.31 48.24 Total foreign : 127.48 335.49 75.22 277.77 406.90 28.12 105.22 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 22.88 0.42 8.05 13.75 10.96 1.13 Argentina : 0.49 15.40 0.02 3.90 5.60 9.68 0.64 South Africa : 2.04 7.48 0.40 4.15 8.15 1.28 0.49 Major importers 5/ : 11.65 76.31 48.30 85.94 123.86 0.99 11.40 EU-15 : 3.63 37.46 2.86 31.30 40.30 0.27 3.38 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.92 5.93 8.80 24.00 0.02 2.17 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.17 4.24 14.18 18.85 0.71 1.46 South Korea : 1.04 0.06 8.74 6.46 8.62 0.00 1.23 Selected other : Brazil : 0.60 41.54 0.29 30.50 34.50 6.32 1.61 Canada : 1.55 6.83 2.54 7.93 9.93 0.11 0.88 China : 102.31 106.00 0.09 91.00 118.00 7.28 83.13 East. Europe : 2.93 18.12 1.70 16.68 20.38 0.87 1.50 FSU-12 6/ : 1.03 7.52 0.35 5.60 7.01 0.47 1.41 Russia : 0.29 1.55 0.15 1.50 1.90 0.00 0.09 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 153.46 596.17 72.89 439.16 620.79 74.11 128.83 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.26 149.20 201.38 47.98 40.63 Total foreign : 105.22 354.68 72.63 289.96 419.41 26.14 88.21 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 23.50 0.82 7.55 13.05 10.90 1.49 Argentina : 0.64 14.40 0.02 3.35 4.85 9.50 0.70 South Africa : 0.49 9.10 0.80 4.20 8.20 1.40 0.79 Major importers 5/ : 11.40 79.76 44.71 86.98 125.11 0.37 10.38 EU-15 : 3.38 38.81 2.75 32.60 41.60 0.05 3.29 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.17 19.60 4.00 8.80 24.00 0.02 1.75 Southeast Asia : 1.46 15.07 3.75 14.08 18.75 0.30 1.24 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.61 6.60 8.76 0.00 1.14 Selected other : Brazil : 1.61 35.54 0.43 30.50 34.50 1.50 1.57 Canada : 0.88 8.20 3.70 9.53 11.73 0.20 0.85 China : 83.13 114.09 0.05 95.00 122.00 8.61 66.65 East. Europe : 1.50 27.48 1.24 21.48 24.96 3.20 2.06 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.77 0.73 5.74 7.09 0.41 1.41 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.60 1.00 1.40 0.00 0.09 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-392-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 124.78 590.00 73.42 437.66 623.30 74.99 91.48 November : 128.83 589.74 73.77 435.92 620.04 74.03 98.53 United States : October : 40.63 227.84 0.38 143.52 198.64 50.80 19.41 November : 40.63 228.70 0.38 144.15 199.27 48.90 21.54 Total foreign : October : 84.15 362.16 73.04 294.14 424.66 24.19 72.07 November : 88.21 361.04 73.39 291.77 420.77 25.13 76.99 Major exporters 4/ : October : 1.49 22.00 0.27 7.40 12.90 9.40 1.46 November : 1.49 22.50 0.27 7.60 13.10 9.70 1.46 Argentina Oct : 0.70 12.50 0.02 3.40 4.90 7.60 0.72 Nov : 0.70 13.00 0.02 3.40 4.90 8.10 0.72 South Africa Oct : 0.79 9.50 0.25 4.00 8.00 1.80 0.74 Nov : 0.79 9.50 0.25 4.20 8.20 1.60 0.74 Major importers 5/ : October : 10.26 79.13 45.91 87.56 125.49 0.27 9.56 November : 10.38 79.13 46.41 87.46 125.80 0.27 9.87 EU-15 Oct : 3.29 39.30 2.50 32.70 41.70 0.05 3.34 Nov : 3.29 39.30 2.50 32.70 41.70 0.05 3.34 Japan Oct : 1.40 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.20 Nov : 1.39 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.19 Mexico Oct : 1.75 19.00 6.00 9.80 25.00 0.02 1.74 Nov : 1.75 19.00 6.50 10.30 25.50 0.02 1.74 Southeast Asia Oct : 1.28 14.52 3.91 13.71 18.39 0.20 1.12 Nov : 1.24 14.52 3.91 13.71 18.39 0.20 1.08 South Korea Oct : 0.87 0.06 8.50 6.90 8.65 0.00 0.78 Nov : 1.14 0.06 8.50 6.30 8.46 0.00 1.24 Selected other : Brazil Oct : 1.53 37.00 0.53 32.00 36.00 1.50 1.56 Nov : 1.57 35.00 0.53 31.00 35.00 1.20 0.89 Canada Oct : 0.85 8.30 4.50 10.10 12.40 0.40 0.85 Nov : 0.85 8.30 4.50 10.10 12.40 0.40 0.85 China Oct : 62.77 125.00 0.10 98.00 126.00 9.50 52.37 Nov : 66.65 125.00 0.10 96.00 124.00 10.00 57.75 East. Europe Oct : 2.03 25.53 0.84 20.63 24.15 2.15 2.11 Nov : 2.06 26.23 0.84 20.98 24.50 2.50 2.13 FSU-12 6/ Oct : 1.41 7.05 0.73 6.42 7.77 0.36 1.06 Nov : 1.41 7.15 0.73 6.52 7.87 0.36 1.06 Russia Oct : 0.09 1.00 0.60 1.20 1.60 0.00 0.09 Nov : 0.09 1.10 0.60 1.30 1.70 0.00 0.09 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-392-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 3/ : 144.24 397.55 21.50 396.37 24.12 145.43 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.68 2.59 0.89 Total foreign : 143.38 391.61 21.15 392.70 21.53 144.54 Major exporters 4/ : 21.41 126.95 0.04 105.18 15.16 28.06 India : 17.72 84.87 0.00 75.85 1.69 25.05 Thailand : 1.71 16.90 0.00 9.40 7.52 1.69 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 17.28 3.53 0.89 Major importers 5/ : 14.16 53.28 9.31 64.43 0.36 11.97 Indonesia : 6.37 32.55 1.50 35.88 0.00 4.54 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.27 134.36 1.85 94.10 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.68 9.00 0.48 1.67 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 3/ : 145.43 396.73 24.91 410.17 25.91 131.98 United States : 0.89 6.67 0.42 3.81 2.94 1.22 Total foreign : 144.54 390.06 24.49 406.36 22.97 130.76 Major exporters 4/ : 28.06 133.02 0.04 117.25 17.05 26.82 India : 25.05 91.60 0.00 87.65 6.00 23.00 Thailand : 1.69 16.50 0.00 9.50 6.50 2.19 Vietnam : 0.89 21.04 0.04 17.40 3.10 1.46 Major importers 5/ : 11.97 53.72 11.94 65.88 0.38 11.37 Indonesia : 4.54 32.42 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.11 Selected other : China : 94.10 124.31 0.23 134.58 1.75 82.30 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.46 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 132.00 381.24 24.81 407.72 25.91 105.53 November : 131.98 381.79 25.29 407.64 26.26 106.12 United States : October : 1.22 6.63 0.41 3.92 3.04 1.31 November : 1.22 6.64 0.41 3.92 3.13 1.22 Total foreign : October : 130.79 374.61 24.40 403.80 22.88 104.22 November : 130.76 375.15 24.88 403.73 23.13 104.91 Major exporters 4/ : October : 26.75 118.85 0.04 113.20 16.20 16.24 November : 26.82 119.25 0.04 113.20 16.40 16.51 India Oct : 23.00 78.00 0.00 83.25 3.90 13.85 Nov : 23.00 78.00 0.00 83.25 3.90 13.85 Thailand Oct : 2.19 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.50 1.59 Nov : 2.19 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.50 1.59 Vietnam Oct : 1.40 20.50 0.04 17.60 3.80 0.54 Nov : 1.46 20.90 0.04 17.60 4.00 0.80 Major importers 5/ : October : 11.48 53.95 11.30 66.89 0.41 9.43 November : 11.37 53.82 11.90 66.86 0.41 9.81 Indonesia Oct : 4.11 32.50 3.25 36.79 0.00 3.07 Nov : 4.11 32.50 3.25 36.79 0.00 3.07 Selected other : China Oct : 82.55 123.20 0.40 134.80 2.25 69.10 Nov : 82.30 123.20 0.30 134.80 2.25 68.75 Japan Oct : 1.46 8.10 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.11 Nov : 1.46 8.08 0.70 8.98 0.15 1.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). WASDE-392-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 28.02 175.10 54.94 146.95 172.06 55.08 30.92 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.62 49.20 27.10 6.74 Total foreign : 20.12 100.04 54.84 102.32 122.85 27.97 24.17 Major exporters 3/ : 14.18 70.32 1.32 40.80 44.06 25.44 16.32 Argentina : 5.52 27.80 0.42 17.30 18.40 7.42 7.93 Brazil : 8.64 39.00 0.90 22.62 24.69 15.47 8.38 Major importers 4/ : 5.16 18.12 44.83 45.99 59.49 1.48 7.14 EU-15 : 0.95 1.05 18.92 16.75 18.44 1.26 1.21 Japan : 0.66 0.24 4.77 3.78 5.08 0.00 0.59 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 30.92 184.30 56.08 158.06 183.85 55.00 32.45 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.89 28.92 5.67 Total foreign : 24.17 105.63 56.02 111.80 132.96 26.08 26.78 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.60 1.50 46.15 49.60 23.11 21.71 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.40 20.60 21.78 6.00 10.54 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.82 15.00 11.15 Major importers 4/ : 7.14 18.13 44.16 49.00 62.89 2.13 4.41 EU-15 : 1.21 1.21 19.92 17.66 19.55 1.80 0.99 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.88 5.21 0.00 0.67 China : 4.91 15.41 10.38 20.31 28.12 0.30 2.29 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 31.74 184.49 60.01 163.45 189.99 60.13 26.11 November : 32.45 188.80 60.17 164.52 191.14 60.61 29.68 United States : October : 5.67 72.22 0.08 45.59 50.08 23.13 4.76 November : 5.67 73.20 0.05 45.18 49.67 24.22 5.03 Total foreign : October : 26.07 112.26 59.93 117.86 139.91 37.00 21.35 November : 26.78 115.60 60.12 119.35 141.47 36.39 24.65 Major exporters 3/ : October : 21.01 82.70 1.20 50.71 54.53 33.90 16.48 November : 21.71 85.20 1.20 51.16 55.05 33.30 19.76 Argentina Oct : 9.84 31.00 0.30 22.30 23.58 10.00 7.57 Nov : 10.54 32.50 0.30 22.50 23.79 9.70 9.85 Brazil Oct : 11.15 48.00 0.90 27.50 29.96 21.20 8.90 Nov : 11.15 49.00 0.90 27.75 30.26 20.90 9.89 Major importers 4/ : October : 4.41 18.18 48.37 50.45 64.80 1.90 4.27 November : 4.41 18.98 48.52 51.40 65.75 1.90 4.27 EU-15 Oct : 0.99 0.95 20.17 17.67 19.57 1.60 0.93 Nov : 0.99 0.95 20.17 17.67 19.57 1.60 0.93 Japan Oct : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.82 5.14 0.00 0.70 Nov : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.82 5.14 0.00 0.70 China Oct : 2.29 15.60 14.00 21.25 29.35 0.28 2.26 Nov : 2.29 16.40 14.00 22.05 30.15 0.28 2.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-392-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 4.23 116.54 41.32 117.03 41.14 3.91 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.71 6.99 0.35 Total foreign : 3.96 80.81 41.28 88.33 34.15 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.13 0.18 8.99 26.63 0.86 Argentina : 0.27 13.65 0.00 0.22 13.60 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.86 0.18 7.55 10.68 0.72 India : 0.00 3.61 0.00 1.22 2.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 30.04 27.34 51.37 6.05 1.30 EU-15 : 0.90 13.24 20.16 27.58 5.94 0.79 China : 0.00 15.05 0.10 15.04 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.91 124.93 44.96 124.31 45.08 4.42 United States : 0.35 36.60 0.10 30.05 6.78 0.22 Total foreign : 3.56 88.33 44.86 94.26 38.30 4.20 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.42 0.33 9.64 29.57 1.40 Argentina : 0.10 16.25 0.00 0.23 15.82 0.30 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 8.15 11.30 1.07 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.30 32.25 28.63 53.72 7.12 1.33 EU-15 : 0.79 13.99 21.17 29.03 6.07 0.85 China : 0.00 16.18 0.02 15.16 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 4.32 129.58 46.62 129.36 46.70 4.47 November : 4.42 130.14 46.51 129.59 46.89 4.58 United States : October : 0.20 36.18 0.22 30.39 5.99 0.23 November : 0.22 35.81 0.22 30.39 5.62 0.23 Total foreign : October : 4.12 93.40 46.40 98.97 40.71 4.24 November : 4.20 94.33 46.30 99.20 41.27 4.36 Major exporters 3/ : October : 1.40 42.72 0.20 10.22 32.56 1.54 November : 1.40 43.08 0.20 10.24 32.87 1.56 Argentina Oct : 0.30 17.60 0.00 0.23 17.36 0.30 Nov : 0.30 17.75 0.00 0.23 17.52 0.30 Brazil Oct : 1.07 21.72 0.20 8.50 13.30 1.19 Nov : 1.07 21.92 0.20 8.52 13.45 1.22 India Oct : 0.04 3.40 0.00 1.50 1.90 0.05 Nov : 0.04 3.40 0.00 1.50 1.90 0.05 Major importers 4/ : October : 1.33 33.53 29.26 56.29 6.55 1.28 November : 1.33 33.89 29.16 56.35 6.75 1.28 EU-15 Oct : 0.85 14.04 21.24 29.27 6.03 0.82 Nov : 0.85 14.04 21.24 29.27 6.03 0.82 China Oct : 0.00 17.20 0.15 16.85 0.50 0.00 Nov : 0.00 17.56 0.05 16.91 0.70 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-392-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 2.53 26.80 7.58 26.34 7.95 2.62 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.35 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.63 18.44 7.55 18.98 7.32 1.32 Major exporters 3/ : 0.82 10.53 0.69 4.98 6.55 0.51 Argentina : 0.23 3.19 0.00 0.11 3.21 0.10 Brazil : 0.41 4.32 0.07 3.08 1.53 0.19 EU-15 : 0.18 3.02 0.62 1.79 1.81 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.08 1.66 5.69 0.06 0.29 China : 0.28 3.24 0.08 3.26 0.06 0.28 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.62 28.78 8.87 28.61 9.11 2.55 United States : 1.30 8.57 0.02 7.69 1.13 1.07 Total foreign : 1.32 20.21 8.85 20.92 7.98 1.48 Major exporters 3/ : 0.51 11.71 0.76 5.11 7.22 0.66 Argentina : 0.10 3.82 0.00 0.12 3.67 0.12 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.15 1.65 0.25 EU-15 : 0.22 3.18 0.61 1.84 1.90 0.28 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.38 2.14 6.50 0.06 0.26 China : 0.28 3.52 0.37 3.86 0.06 0.25 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 2.50 29.85 9.92 30.06 10.17 2.05 November : 2.55 30.07 9.94 30.34 10.22 2.00 United States : October : 1.08 8.59 0.03 7.87 1.09 0.74 November : 1.07 8.51 0.03 7.89 1.04 0.67 Total foreign : October : 1.41 21.26 9.89 22.19 9.08 1.31 November : 1.48 21.56 9.91 22.45 9.18 1.32 Major exporters 3/ : October : 0.64 12.57 0.74 5.19 8.25 0.50 November : 0.66 12.66 0.74 5.21 8.34 0.51 Argentina Oct : 0.10 4.13 0.00 0.12 4.01 0.10 Nov : 0.12 4.17 0.00 0.13 4.06 0.10 Brazil Oct : 0.25 5.25 0.15 3.24 2.26 0.15 Nov : 0.25 5.30 0.15 3.25 2.30 0.15 EU-15 Oct : 0.28 3.19 0.59 1.83 1.98 0.26 Nov : 0.28 3.19 0.59 1.83 1.98 0.26 Major importers 4/ : October : 0.26 4.46 3.05 7.36 0.10 0.31 November : 0.26 4.62 3.05 7.52 0.10 0.31 China Oct : 0.25 3.64 0.80 4.29 0.10 0.30 Nov : 0.25 3.80 0.80 4.45 0.10 0.30 Pakistan Oct : 0.01 0.05 0.25 0.30 0.00 0.01 Nov : 0.01 0.05 0.25 0.30 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-392-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World : 45.30 88.74 26.65 91.96 26.59 -0.56 42.70 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.86 6.74 -0.48 6.00 Total foreign : 41.38 71.56 26.63 83.10 19.85 -0.08 36.70 Major exporters 4/ : 14.31 37.17 2.34 25.86 15.77 -0.09 12.29 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.93 1.57 13.54 0.09 0.00 3.77 Central Asia 5/ : 1.74 6.38 0.01 1.59 5.12 0.00 1.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.01 3.22 3/ 0.22 3.26 0.00 0.75 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.09 5.84 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.87 Australia : 2.31 3.70 3/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.44 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 25.16 31.16 17.82 48.91 2.88 0.01 22.35 Brazil : 2.39 4.31 0.60 4.20 0.32 -0.17 2.97 Mexico : 0.49 0.39 1.86 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.54 China : 17.76 20.30 0.24 23.25 0.45 0.00 14.60 Europe : 1.82 2.49 5.00 5.80 1.84 0.07 1.61 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.75 5.17 0.13 0.00 0.88 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.87 0.07 8.35 8.40 0.06 0.09 1.75 Indonesia : 0.24 0.03 2.65 2.45 0.02 0.05 0.41 South Korea : 0.43 3/ 1.42 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.39 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World : 42.70 98.37 29.60 94.12 29.00 0.06 47.49 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.72 11.00 0.18 7.43 Total foreign : 36.70 78.07 29.57 86.40 18.00 -0.12 40.07 Major exporters 4/ : 12.29 39.84 3.16 25.89 14.15 -0.09 15.34 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 India : 3.77 12.30 1.75 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.49 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.08 0.00 1.93 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.87 4.40 0.28 0.98 3.89 -0.14 2.82 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.05 -0.16 2.26 Argentina : 0.32 0.30 0.03 0.28 0.22 0.01 0.15 Major importers : 22.35 35.10 19.50 51.88 2.64 -0.03 22.46 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.95 0.67 -0.20 2.32 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 1.90 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.67 China : 14.60 24.40 0.45 25.50 0.34 0.00 13.61 Europe : 1.61 2.62 4.79 5.61 1.36 0.07 1.98 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.75 0.16 9.24 8.57 0.05 0.08 2.44 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.50 2.35 0.02 0.05 0.55 South Korea : 0.39 3/ 1.62 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-392-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World : October : 47.34 88.50 30.18 96.41 29.91 -0.12 39.83 November : 47.49 88.14 29.88 96.22 29.45 -0.15 40.00 United States : October : 7.60 18.07 0.03 7.90 11.00 0.00 6.80 November : 7.43 17.82 0.03 7.70 10.80 -0.03 6.80 Total foreign : October : 39.74 70.43 30.15 88.51 18.91 -0.12 33.03 November : 40.07 70.32 29.85 88.52 18.65 -0.12 33.20 Major exporters 4/ : October : 15.21 36.44 3.00 26.98 14.50 -0.09 13.27 November : 15.34 35.64 3.15 26.76 14.37 -0.09 13.09 Pakistan Oct : 3.26 8.20 0.50 8.80 0.10 0.03 3.04 Nov : 3.26 7.80 0.70 8.80 0.10 0.03 2.84 India Oct : 4.49 10.90 2.10 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.84 Nov : 4.49 10.90 2.10 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.84 Central Asia 5/Oct : 1.93 7.02 3/ 1.99 5.24 0.00 1.72 Nov : 1.93 6.78 3/ 1.89 5.20 0.00 1.62 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Oct : 1.48 3.92 3/ 0.22 3.97 0.00 1.21 Nov : 1.48 3.82 3/ 0.21 3.87 0.00 1.22 S. Hemis 7/ Oct : 2.83 3.78 0.28 1.02 3.66 -0.14 2.34 Nov : 2.82 3.72 0.28 1.01 3.68 -0.14 2.26 Australia Oct : 2.26 2.00 3/ 0.14 2.65 -0.16 1.63 Nov : 2.26 2.00 3/ 0.14 2.70 -0.16 1.58 Argentina Oct : 0.15 0.43 0.03 0.33 0.08 0.01 0.19 Nov : 0.15 0.43 0.03 0.33 0.08 0.01 0.19 Major importers Oct : 22.27 30.96 20.21 52.86 3.09 -0.03 17.54 Nov : 22.46 31.66 19.82 53.17 2.94 -0.03 17.87 Brazil Oct : 2.20 3.70 1.05 4.00 0.40 -0.20 2.75 Nov : 2.32 3.60 1.05 4.00 0.40 -0.20 2.76 Mexico Oct : 0.67 0.19 1.90 2.10 0.05 0.03 0.58 Nov : 0.67 0.19 1.85 2.05 0.05 0.03 0.58 China Oct : 13.61 20.50 2.00 26.25 0.75 0.00 9.11 Nov : 13.61 21.50 2.00 26.75 0.75 0.00 9.61 Europe Oct : 1.98 2.37 4.76 5.61 1.70 0.07 1.74 Nov : 1.98 2.17 4.72 5.57 1.55 0.07 1.68 Turkey Oct : 1.38 4.10 2.30 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.26 Nov : 1.45 4.10 2.15 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.18 Sel. Asia 8/ Oct : 2.44 0.10 8.20 8.50 0.07 0.08 2.10 Nov : 2.44 0.10 8.05 8.40 0.07 0.08 2.05 Indonesia Oct : 0.55 0.06 2.35 2.35 0.02 0.05 0.54 Nov : 0.55 0.06 2.20 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.49 S. Korea Oct : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 Nov : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-392-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2001 : IV : 6700 5239 12048 7863 1454 9444 21492 1829 40.8 Annual : 26107 19138 45663 31266 5562 37343 83006 7152 165.3 : 2002 : I : 6376 4779 11259 7855 1385 9372 20631 1767 42.3 II : 6833 4800 11733 8249 1448 9835 21568 1789 44.0 III : 7097 4832 12030 8254 1412 9810 21840 1820 42.0 IV*: 6775 5340 12220 7975 1425 9530 21750 1840 41.9 Annual : Oct Proj : 27084 19759 47252 32354 5658 38552 85804 7216 169.8 Nov Proj : 27081 19751 47242 32333 5670 38547 85789 7216 170.1 : 2003 : I*: 6300 4750 11154 8025 1350 9505 20659 1770 43.1 II*: 6675 4660 11432 8425 1450 10010 21442 1790 44.4 III*: 6600 4760 11455 8300 1425 9855 21310 1830 42.1 Annual : Oct Proj : 25650 19420 45465 33000 5675 39195 84660 7230 171.4 Nov Proj : 25650 19420 45465 33000 5675 39195 84660 7240 172.0 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2001 : IV : 65.13 37.30 58.5 71.4 68.2 14.50 Annual : 72.71 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.97 : 2002 : I : 70.19 39.43 56.0 60.0 69.1 13.07 II : 65.58 35.03 56.1 62.9 58.4 12.10 III : 63.29 33.86 56.4 66.7 65.3 11.37 IV*: 67-69 27-29 54-56 69-71 72-74 11.75-12.05 Annual : Oct Proj : 67.02 34.08 55.9 65.4 66.5 12.10-12.20 Nov Proj : 66.77 34.08 55.9 64.9 66.5 12.05-12.15 : 2003 : I*: 68-72 34-36 55-59 59-63 68-72 11.60-12.20 II*: 71-77 36-40 56-60 61-67 58-62 11.30-12.20 III*: 73-79 36-40 59-63 65-71 63-69 11.85-12.85 Annual : Oct Proj : 71-77 35-38 57-61 64-69 64-69 12.00-12.90 Nov Proj : 71-77 35-38 57-61 64-69 65-70 11.90-12.80 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-392-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2001 : 525 26212 3164 29901 2269 606 27026 66.2 2002 Proj. Oct : 606 27189 3306 31101 2468 625 28008 67.8 Nov : 606 27186 3306 31098 2468 675 27955 67.7 2003 Proj. Oct : 625 25755 3305 29685 2530 350 26805 64.3 Nov : 675 25755 3305 29735 2530 350 26855 64.4 : PORK : 2001 : 478 19160 951 20588 1560 536 18492 50.2 2002 Proj. Oct : 536 19781 1057 21374 1563 575 19236 51.6 Nov : 536 19773 1057 21366 1588 575 19203 51.5 2003 Proj. Oct : 575 19442 1080 21097 1600 600 18897 50.2 Nov : 575 19442 1080 21097 1620 600 18877 50.2 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2001 : 1021 45804 4260 51085 3836 1160 46089 118.1 2002 Proj. Oct : 1160 47392 4541 53093 4036 1218 47839 121.2 Nov : 1160 47382 4529 53071 4061 1268 47742 121.0 2003 Proj. Oct : 1218 45605 4577 51400 4135 968 46297 116.3 Nov : 1268 45605 4557 51430 4155 968 46307 116.3 : BROILERS : 2001 : 798 30938 14 31749 5555 712 25482 76.6 2002 Proj. Oct : 712 32008 11 32731 4868 825 27038 80.3 Nov : 712 31987 12 32710 5108 825 26777 79.5 2003 Proj. Oct : 825 32647 12 33484 5450 775 27259 80.2 Nov : 825 32647 12 33484 5450 775 27259 80.2 : TURKEYS : 2001 : 241 5489 1 5732 487 241 5004 17.5 2002 Proj. Oct : 241 5584 1 5826 456 325 5044 17.4 Nov : 241 5596 1 5837 456 325 5056 17.5 2003 Proj. Oct : 325 5601 1 5927 490 325 5111 17.5 Nov : 325 5601 1 5927 490 325 5111 17.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2001 : 1048 36942 18 38008 6224 960 30823 95.2 2002 Proj. Oct : 961 38131 15 39107 5472 1158 32476 99.1 Nov : 960 38126 16 39102 5702 1158 32241 98.4 2003 Proj. Oct : 1158 38767 15 39940 6100 1108 32731 99.0 Nov : 1158 38767 17 39942 6100 1108 32733 99.0 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2001 : 2069 82746 4278 89093 10060 2120 76912 213.3 2002 Proj. Oct : 2121 85523 4556 92200 9508 2376 80315 220.3 Nov : 2120 85508 4545 92173 9763 2426 79983 219.4 2003 Proj. Oct : 2376 84372 4592 91340 10235 2076 79028 215.2 Nov : 2426 84372 4574 91372 10255 2076 79040 215.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-392-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2002 Projected : 2003 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2000 : 2001 : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.4 10.4 12.0 12.0 Production : 7033.5 7152.0 7216.0 7216.0 7230.0 7240.0 Imports : 8.4 8.9 11.8 13.8 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 7049.5 7172.2 7238.2 7240.2 7250.0 7260.0 : Use : Exports : 171.1 190.0 182.5 182.5 168.0 168.0 Hatching use : 940.2 953.0 968.5 959.8 1000.0 975.0 Ending stocks : 11.4 10.4 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5926.8 6018.8 6075.2 6085.9 6070.0 6105.0 Per capita (number) : 251.8 252.6 252.1 252.6 249.5 251.0 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Proj 1/: 2002/03 Proj 1/ Commodity :1999/00:2000/01:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 7.4 8.9 8.8 8.8 11.2 11.4 Production : 167.4 165.2 168.8 169.0 171.1 171.5 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 166.0 163.9 167.6 167.8 169.9 170.3 Imports 2/ : 4.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.8 4.8 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.1 178.2 181.5 181.7 185.9 186.5 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 168.4 169.1 170.0 170.1 175.7 176.2 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.9 8.8 11.2 11.4 9.7 9.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 8.5 6.3 9.6 9.6 7.7 8.1 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 9.99 12.29 11.03 11.03 10.10- 10.10- : 10.90 10.80 : Class IV : 11.51 13.88 11.22 11.22 10.55- 10.45- : 11.55 11.35 : All milk 6/ : 12.61 14.51 12.75 12.76 11.70- 11.65- : 12.50 12.35 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 11 0 0 0 15 15 Cheese : 17 17 12 9 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 690 525 817 817 660 690 Dry whole milk : 34 3 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-392-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 21-year record of the differences between the November projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the November projection and the final estimate have averaged 5.0 million tons (1.0%) ranging from -18.1 to 7.2 million tons. The November projection has been below the estimate 14 times and above 7 times. Reliability of November Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.0 5.0 -18.1 7.2 14 7 U.S. : 0.3 0.2 -1.2 0.5 10 9 Foreign : 1.1 5.0 -18.2 7.4 14 7 Exports : World : 3.5 4.0 -12.6 5.8 15 6 U.S. : 6.1 2.1 -8.6 3.8 7 14 Foreign : 4.9 4.0 -11.2 5.5 17 4 Domestic use : World : 1.1 6.0 -18.0 10.9 11 9 U.S. : 5.7 1.7 -2.5 3.6 9 12 Foreign : 1.2 5.9 -21.1 10.7 14 7 Ending stocks : World : 5.2 6.5 -19.3 12.1 14 7 U.S. : 9.3 2.3 -7.0 5.4 11 10 Foreign : 5.1 4.9 -15.9 6.7 15 6 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.0 7.8 -20.8 7.8 14 7 U.S. : 1.1 2.3 -7.5 5.8 12 9 Foreign : 1.2 7.3 -18.1 6.0 14 7 Exports : World : 4.7 4.9 -11.0 12.4 13 8 U.S. : 12.2 6.5 -14.7 13.6 11 10 Foreign : 9.7 5.0 -9.9 8.4 12 9 Domestic use : World : 1.1 9.0 -18.7 21.9 11 10 U.S. : 3.0 5.4 -17.2 17.1 11 10 Foreign : 1.2 7.6 -12.5 22.2 12 9 Ending stocks : World : 10.1 12.6 -32.1 13.2 16 5 U.S. : 16.3 8.3 -23.9 16.1 12 9 Foreign : 13.3 9.2 -22.9 6.7 18 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.9 6.6 -16.8 1.9 19 2 U.S. : 2.9 0.2 -0.3 0.5 10 10 Foreign : 2.0 6.5 -16.9 1.7 19 2 Exports : World : 8.3 1.5 -6.0 0.9 16 5 U.S. : 6.4 0.2 -0.7 0.6 11 7 Foreign : 9.8 1.5 -6.0 1.0 15 6 Domestic use : World : 1.5 5.0 -17.5 1.7 18 3 U.S. : 5.9 0.2 -0.4 0.5 12 9 Foreign : 1.5 5.0 -17.7 1.6 18 3 Ending stocks : World : 10.1 4.3 -13.9 3.6 16 5 U.S. : 16.8 0.2 -0.8 0.8 12 9 Foreign : 10.9 4.4 -14.0 3.3 16 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-392-32 Reliability of November Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.5 3.0 -7.0 3.6 13 8 U.S. : 1.8 1.0 -2.7 2.1 6 15 Foreign : 4.4 2.8 -7.9 3.4 14 7 Exports : World : 5.3 1.9 -9.4 2.8 14 7 U.S. : 7.9 1.7 -2.9 5.2 13 8 Foreign : 17.4 1.9 -8.0 4.7 11 10 Domestic use : World : 2.6 3.3 -6.9 2.8 15 6 U.S. : 2.7 1.1 -3.6 1.1 16 5 Foreign : 3.4 2.8 -5.8 3.2 16 5 Ending stocks : World : 12.1 2.2 -4.1 5.3 12 9 U.S. : 31.3 2.3 -3.3 4.9 5 16 Foreign : 16.6 2.2 -6.4 3.1 13 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.6 2.1 -6.5 5.8 14 7 U.S. : 2.4 0.4 -0.8 0.9 12 8 Foreign : 3.1 2.1 -6.8 5.6 12 9 Exports : World : 4.0 1.0 -2.6 1.5 12 9 U.S. : 14.0 0.8 -2.2 1.5 11 10 Foreign : 5.4 1.0 -3.0 1.7 8 12 Mill use : World : 2.1 1.8 -6.0 2.9 9 11 U.S. : 4.7 0.4 -0.9 1.1 13 8 Foreign : 2.2 1.7 -5.5 3.4 10 11 Ending stocks : World : 10.2 3.6 -8.6 10.8 11 10 U.S. : 24.4 1.0 -2.1 2.3 7 14 Foreign : 10.6 3.3 -9.3 10.2 13 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2001/02 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 21 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-392-33 Reliability of United States November Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 1.1 80 -250 159 11 9 Exports : 12.4 224 -575 483 10 11 Domestic use : 3.4 206 -574 535 14 7 Ending stocks : 19.1 321 -986 732 10 11 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.3 16 -53 52 10 11 Exports : 15.4 37 -115 97 12 7 Domestic use : 9.5 43 -114 127 8 13 Ending stocks : 32.9 36 -104 82 9 12 : BARLEY : Production : 1.2 6 -12 24 8 10 Exports : 21.1 13 -37 30 9 10 Domestic use : 5.5 21 -30 70 9 11 Ending stocks : 10.3 16 -38 23 14 6 : OATS : Production : 0.9 3 -18 16 7 7 Exports : 48.9 1 -4 7 5 6 Domestic use : 3.8 15 -39 36 11 10 Ending stocks : 13.2 16 -46 52 14 7 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.7 845 -2578 937 14 7 Exports : 8.5 577 -1900 1450 10 11 Domestic use : 2.6 609 -1277 675 13 8 Ending stocks : 27.2 68 -249 188 9 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.8 398 -1418 740 14 7 Exports : 22.2 335 -900 964 10 11 Domestic use : 2.5 311 -985 500 15 6 Ending stocks : 18.1 281 -728 708 8 13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.8 936 -716 2461 13 6 Pork : 2.7 445 -1240 1592 10 9 Broilers : 1.7 398 -1337 550 13 6 Turkeys : 2.3 99 -444 211 14 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 84 -127 163 14 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.1 1.6 -6.0 3.6 8 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2001/02 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 21 for crops and 19 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2001 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2000/01 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-392-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- End of File -----