ISSN: 1554-9089 WASDE-427 October 12, 2005 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2005/06 ending stocks of wheat are down 94 million bushels from last month in part reflecting a 69-million-bushel drop in production (reported in the Small Grains Summary). HRS ending stocks are down 59 million bushels and, at 119 million bushels, are the smallest since 1995/96. No changes are made to domestic use or imports. Exports rise 25 million bushels due to larger-than-expected sales to Nigeria and Iraq. Exports of HRW and HRS are higher but are partially offset by lower exports of White wheat. The projected 2005/06 price range is $3.20 to $3.60 per bushel, up 20 cents on each end from last month, compared with $3.40 for 2004/05. Global wheat production in 2005/06 is down over 2 million tons from last month, consumption and imports are up slightly, but ending stocks are down over 2 million tons. Foreign production is down fractionally due primarily to smaller crops in EU-25, Argentina, and Kazakhstan, partially offset by larger crops in Canada, Morocco, Australia, and Romania. Projected global imports are up fractionally due to larger imports by EU-25, Iraq, and Nigeria. Imports by China and Russia are down. Forecast exports rise for Australia, Romania, and Serbia but decline for Argentina, EU-25, and Kazakhstan. Global consumption is up fractionally. The largest month-to-month consumption increases occur in Nigeria, Canada, Iraq, and Mexico. Global 2005/06 wheat ending stocks fall 2.2 million tons due mostly to lower U.S. stocks. Foreign stocks are up slightly with increases projected in Canada, Morocco, China, and Algeria. Stocks are down in EU-25 and Russia. COARSE GRAINS: This month's outlook for 2005/06 U.S. corn is for increased production, higher domestic consumption, larger stocks, and lower prices. Forecast 2005 corn production is up 218 million bushels from last month to 10.857 billion bushels (the second largest crop on record). Beginning stocks of 2005/06 corn drop 13 million bushels, based on the September Grain Stocks report. Projected 2005/06 feed and residual rises 50 million bushels and food, seed, and industrial use is up 15 million bushels. Exports are unchanged. Corn ending stocks are up 141 million bushels from last month and are 108 million higher than the previous year. The projected 2005/06 price range for corn is $1.65 to $2.05 per bushel, down 5 cents on each end from last month, compared with $2.06 for 2004/05. Forecast grain sorghum production is down 23 million bushels. Barley production is down 25 million bushels and oat production is down 13 million bushels based on the Small Grains Summary. A 2-million-bushel increase in grain sorghum food, seed, and industrial use is more than offset by a 15-million-bushel reduction in feed and residual use. Grain sorghum ending stocks are up 1 million bushels from last month due in part to an 11-million-bushel increase in beginning stocks. Grain sorghum prices in 2005/06 are projected to average $1.50 to $1.90, unchanged from last month, compared with $1.79 for 2004/05. The global outlook for coarse grains in 2005/06 is for larger production, higher consumption, larger imports, but fractionally lower stocks relative to last month. Foreign production is down just over 1 million tons with the largest declines projected in India, EU-25, China, South Africa, and Argentina. These losses are partially offset by gains in crops in Nigeria, Russia, and Ukraine. Global 2005/06 coarse grain consumption is up nearly 3 million tons with foreign consumption up nearly 2 million tons. There are many month-to-month changes in foreign consumption but the largest changes are a nearly 3-million-ton increase in Nigeria and a 1.5-million decline in India. Imports are up for Brazil, Morocco, and several other countries. Exports are up for Ukraine, Nigeria, and Turkey but are down for Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. Global 2005/06 ending stocks drop less than 1 million tons from last month but foreign stocks are down over 4 million tons. The largest drop in foreign stocks occur in EU- 25, China, South Africa, and India. Stock increases are projected for Mexico, Morocco, the Philippines, and several other countries. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2005/06 is forecast at 223.2 million cwt, 5.1 million cwt below last month but still the second largest on record. Harvested area remains projected at 3.34 million acres, up less than 1 percent from a year earlier. The average yield is estimated at 6,678 pounds per acre, down 153 pounds per acre from last month and 264 pounds below the 2004/05 record yield. Long-grain production is projected at 175.1 million cwt, still the largest on record. Combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at 48.1 million cwt, 13.8 million cwt below 2004/05. Beginning stocks remain estimated at 37.7 million cwt, 14 million cwt above a year earlier. Imports remain forecast at a near-record 15 million cwt, up 1.8 million cwt from 2004/05. Domestic and residual use remains forecast at 126.1 million cwt, the highest on record. Total exports were lowered 2 million cwt to 119 million cwt. Rough rice exports were lowered 1 million cwt to 37 million cwt and milled rice exports were lowered 1 million cwt to 82 million cwt. Ending stocks of all rice are projected at 30.8 million cwt, 3.1 million cwt below last month and 6.9 million below a year earlier. The season-average farm price is projected at $7.45 to $7.75 per cwt, up 20 cents on both the high and low end from last month. Global 2005/06 rice production is lowered 0.9 million tons, with China, Brazil, United States, and Vietnam accounting for most of the decline. In contrast, 2005/06 production forecasts for India, Cuba, Madagascar, and Egypt are raised. Ending stocks are lowered 1.3 million tons to 64.3 million tons, 8.9 million tons below 2004/05 and the smallest since 1982/83. China accounts for most of this month's reduction in 2005/06 global ending stocks. Global consumption was raised fractionally. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2005/06 are projected at 8.7 million tons, up 1.6 million tons from last month and up 0.4 million tons from revised 2004/05 ending stocks. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 92.8 million tons, up 3.4 million tons from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 2,967 million bushels, up 111 million bushels as higher yields more than offset this month's acreage reductions. Planted and harvested area are both lowered 0.9 million acres based on administrative data. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels this month due to increased supplies and lower soybean prices. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 260 million bushels, up 55 million from last month. Other oilseed production is forecast higher this month with increases for sunflowerseed, canola, and cottonseed more than offsetting reduced peanut production. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2005/06 are projected at $5.00 to $5.80, compared with $5.15 to $6.05 last month. Soybean meal prices are also projected lower at $155 to $185 per short ton, down $10 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 22 to 25 cents per pound, up 0.5 cent on both ends of the range. Higher soybean oil prices reflect market expectations for increased biodiesel production. Global oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at 384.9 million tons, up 5.5 million tons from last month and up 5.7 million tons from 2004/05. Foreign oilseed production is raised 2.2 million tons as higher soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed more than offset reduced cottonseed and peanut production. Argentina soybean production is projected at 40.5 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from the previous estimate based on increased area. Higher first crop soybean seedings are expected as Argentine producers switch from wheat and corn. Soybean production for India is projected lower due to reduced yield prospects related to dry weather. Sunflowerseed production is increased for Argentina, Bolivia, EU-25, Russia, Ukraine, and South Africa. Rapeseed production is projected higher for EU-25 and for Canada, where the crop is expected to be the largest since 1999/2000. Other changes include lower cottonseed production for China and Pakistan, partly offset by an increase for India. Lower peanut production projected for China is partly offset by an increase for India. Global oilseed stocks for 2005/06 are raised this month as production increases more than offset lower beginning stocks and increased use. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2005/06 is increased 125,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, mainly due to higher imports. Cane sugar production is dropped 90,000 tons, as lower Louisiana output more than offsets an increase for Florida. Production projections are based on processors' reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency, with the exception of Louisiana, which is reduced to reflect forecast sugarcane production in the October Crop Production report. Imports are increased 228,000 tons due to imports from Mexico under the North American Free Trade Agreement while high-tier sugar imports are reduced. Use is increased 50,000 tons in line with the increase in estimated use for 2004/05. Ending stocks are increased to 1.1 million, or 10.5 percent of use. For 2004/05, supply is increased 52,000 tons, as lower production is more than offset by higher imports under the re-export programs. Total use is increased 65,000 tons, mainly due to continued robust domestic demand for sugar. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Note: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2005 and 2006 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. trading partners. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. U.S. beef and pork production forecasts for second-half 2005 are reduced from last month, reflecting lower-than-expected third-quarter slaughter and expectations of lower cattle and hog slaughter in the fourth quarter. Cattle marketings from feedlots have been slower-than- expected and fourth-quarter slaughter forecasts are reduced because cattle are likely to remain on feed longer to achieve Choice or better grades. Third-quarter hog slaughter was lower than expected and the forecast for the fourth quarter is reduced slightly. Broiler production forecasts are reduced from last month as broiler hatchery and laying flock data indicated a slower-than-expected rate of production growth. The turkey production forecast is increased slightly and the egg production forecast is unchanged. U.S. beef and pork production forecasts for 2006 are unchanged from last month. The September 30 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that the sector continues to expand relatively slowly. Although growth in pigs per litter is expected to result in increased pig crops into 2006, forecasts of live hog imports from Canada are reduced slightly. Thus, hog slaughter and pork production forecasts are unchanged from last month. The slower pace of growth in broiler production forecast for late 2005 is carried forward into 2006. Small changes are made to pork export forecasts as prospects remain favorable for growth. Other red meat trade forecasts are unchanged. Prices for livestock in third-quarter 2005 remained relatively strong and cattle and hog price forecasts for the fourth quarter are raised. Although 2006 cattle prices are expected to decline from their 2005 levels, forecast prices for the first half of 2006 are raised. Broiler prices in 2005 are reduced slightly. Turkey price forecasts in 2006 are raised. Milk production in 2005 and 2006 is forecast higher than last month. Output per cow is raised for 2005 and 2006, and the milk cow herd is forecast to grow slightly more rapidly in 2006. As a result, the milk production forecast is increased 400 million pounds for 2005 and 1 billion pounds in 2006. Fat-basis commercial demand remains relatively strong and is expected to absorb increased supplies of milk, providing support for increased forecasts of both butter and cheese prices in 2005 and forecast cheese prices in 2006. Commercial use of skim solids is also increased, reflecting firm domestic demand and continued strength in exports. The nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecast is raised for both 2005 and 2006. The whey price forecast is also raised on strength in exports and strong NDM prices. Higher product price forecasts raise Class price forecasts for both 2005 and 2006. The all milk price for 2005 is forecast higher at $15.20 to $15.30 per cwt, and the 2006 forecast is raised to $13.35 to $14.25 per cwt. COTTON: The 2005/06 U.S. forecasts include higher production and offtake, with lower beginning and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is raised 2 percent to 22.7 million bales, due mainly to higher production in Texas. Beginning stocks are reduced 100,000 bales based on estimates for 2004/05 from the Bureau of the Census. The Census Bureau has also raised its estimate of 2004/05 domestic mill use; the 2005/06 mill use forecast is increased proportional to this revision, while still reflecting a year-to-year reduction. Exports are raised 700,000 bales from last month, supported by larger supplies and higher projected import demand by China. Ending stocks are lowered nearly 9 percent. Slight revisions in the 2005/06 world supply and demand forecasts result in marginally lower world stocks. World production is virtually unchanged, as decreases for China, Pakistan, and Brazil are about offset by increases for India, the United States, and Uzbekistan. World consumption is raised nearly 1 percent, reflecting increases in China, the United States, and India. Higher world trade is supported by increased import demand by China and Pakistan. World ending stocks are now forecast at 51.0 million bales. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 32. APPROVED: CHARLES F. CONNER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 10, 2005. In 2005, the WASDE report will be released on December 9. 2006 Agricultural Outlook Forum: Prospering in Rural America USDA invites you to attend the 2006 Agricultural Outlook Forum, February 16-17, 2006, in Arlington, Virginia. Among the Forum's speakers are Secretary Mike Johanns and other top officials, industry analysts, business leaders, farmers and ranchers, and experts in agriculture. The Forum offers more than 130 speakers along with numerous networking opportunities 1,500 people are expected to attend. For more information, visit: http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. 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WASDE-427-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 1,859.49 2,302.81 240.69 1,949.38 353.42 2004/05 (Est.) : 2,035.20 2,388.62 238.19 1,995.15 393.48 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 1,954.85 2,348.82 235.27 1,995.64 353.18 October : 1,954.56 2,348.04 234.51 1,999.34 348.70 Wheat : 2003/04 : 554.19 720.30 109.38 588.63 131.67 2004/05 (Est.) : 625.15 756.82 109.87 608.05 148.77 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 610.26 758.22 109.76 618.56 139.66 October : 607.96 756.74 109.49 619.31 137.43 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 913.80 1,080.85 103.90 945.45 135.41 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,008.16 1,143.56 101.13 972.07 171.49 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 938.97 1,111.55 100.50 963.68 147.88 October : 941.89 1,113.38 99.98 966.41 146.97 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 391.49 501.65 27.41 415.30 86.35 2004/05 (Est.) : 401.89 488.24 27.20 415.03 73.21 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 405.62 479.04 25.01 413.40 65.64 October : 404.71 477.92 25.04 413.63 64.29 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 345.33 395.10 88.59 262.12 44.40 2004/05 (Est.) : 385.60 434.51 83.81 276.03 74.67 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 353.79 433.33 86.34 271.49 75.49 October : 355.99 435.47 86.96 272.29 76.22 Wheat : 2003/04 : 63.81 78.90 31.52 32.51 14.87 2004/05 (Est.) : 58.74 75.53 28.92 31.91 14.70 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 58.98 75.85 26.54 32.33 16.98 October : 57.11 73.98 27.22 32.33 14.43 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 275.10 308.48 53.75 225.96 28.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 319.45 350.39 51.35 240.28 58.76 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 287.56 348.54 55.97 235.14 57.44 October : 291.80 352.72 55.97 235.94 60.81 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 6.42 7.73 3.31 3.66 0.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 7.41 8.59 3.54 3.84 1.21 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 7.25 8.94 3.84 4.02 1.08 October : 7.09 8.77 3.78 4.02 0.98 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-427-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 1,514.15 1,907.70 152.10 1,687.26 309.03 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,649.60 1,954.12 154.38 1,719.12 318.81 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 1,601.06 1,915.49 148.93 1,724.14 277.69 October : 1,598.57 1,912.57 147.56 1,727.05 272.47 Wheat : 2003/04 : 490.38 641.40 77.86 556.12 116.80 2004/05 (Est.) : 566.42 681.29 80.95 576.14 134.08 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 551.28 682.37 83.23 586.23 122.68 October : 550.86 682.76 82.28 586.97 123.00 Coarse grains 5/ : 2003/04 : 638.70 772.38 50.14 719.49 106.64 2004/05 (Est.) : 688.71 793.17 49.78 731.79 112.73 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 651.40 763.01 44.54 728.53 90.44 October : 650.09 760.66 44.02 730.47 86.16 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 385.07 493.92 24.10 411.65 85.59 2004/05 (Est.) : 394.48 479.65 23.65 411.19 72.00 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 398.37 470.10 21.17 409.38 64.57 October : 397.63 469.15 21.27 409.61 63.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2003/04 : 95.06 137.41 33.16 98.20 40.62 2004/05 (Est.) : 120.43 161.04 34.96 108.75 50.98 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 111.53 162.15 38.69 112.20 51.20 October : 111.44 162.42 40.22 112.93 50.98 : United States 2003/04 : 18.26 23.69 13.76 6.22 3.51 2004/05 (Est.) : 23.25 26.79 14.41 6.48 5.65 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 22.28 28.07 15.30 5.80 7.00 October : 22.72 28.41 16.00 6.00 6.40 : Foreign 3/ 2003/04 : 76.81 113.72 19.40 91.98 37.11 2004/05 (Est.) : 97.18 134.26 20.55 102.27 45.33 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 89.25 134.08 23.39 106.40 44.20 October : 88.72 134.02 24.22 106.93 44.58 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-427-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 334.46 379.41 67.11 278.62 40.22 2004/05 (Est.) : 379.17 419.39 74.98 301.24 50.61 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 379.34 431.33 78.99 310.75 52.31 October : 384.86 435.47 79.57 313.00 54.77 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 189.96 195.45 58.33 189.97 4.92 2004/05 (Est.) : 204.95 209.87 59.56 204.51 4.85 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 211.91 216.99 61.01 211.11 5.28 October : 213.64 218.49 61.47 212.37 5.13 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 101.66 108.95 38.16 100.21 7.13 2004/05 (Est.) : 110.00 117.12 41.42 108.44 7.46 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 113.52 121.11 43.47 112.90 7.31 October : 114.34 121.80 43.85 114.15 7.20 : : United States Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 76.60 82.94 25.16 45.52 4.15 2004/05 (Est.) : 95.97 100.81 30.64 50.17 8.28 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 89.45 99.37 31.31 50.33 7.10 October : 92.81 101.65 31.28 50.82 8.65 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 35.21 37.30 4.94 32.08 0.27 2004/05 (Est.) : 39.15 40.89 6.90 33.68 0.31 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 38.79 40.61 6.07 34.25 0.30 October : 39.18 41.07 6.20 34.57 0.30 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 8.77 11.60 0.74 10.06 0.80 2004/05 (Est.) : 9.71 12.40 0.85 10.55 1.01 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 9.72 12.61 1.02 10.55 1.04 October : 9.88 12.93 0.93 10.94 1.06 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 257.86 296.48 41.95 233.10 36.07 2004/05 (Est.) : 283.20 318.58 44.33 251.07 42.33 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 289.89 331.96 47.69 260.43 45.21 October : 292.05 333.82 48.28 262.17 46.12 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 154.74 158.16 53.38 157.89 4.64 2004/05 (Est.) : 165.80 168.98 52.66 170.83 4.54 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 173.12 176.38 54.94 176.86 4.99 October : 174.46 177.41 55.27 177.80 4.83 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 92.90 97.35 37.42 90.16 6.33 2004/05 (Est.) : 100.29 104.72 40.57 97.89 6.45 2005/06 (Proj.) : September : 103.80 108.50 42.45 102.35 6.28 October : 104.46 108.87 42.92 103.21 6.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-427-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.1 59.7 58.1 57.1 Harvested : 53.1 50.0 50.4 50.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 44.2 43.2 43.0 42.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 491 546 540 540 Production : 2,345 2,158 2,167 2,098 Imports : 63 71 80 80 Supply, total : 2,899 2,775 2,787 2,718 Food : 912 907 910 910 Seed : 80 79 78 78 Feed and residual : 203 187 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,194 1,172 1,188 1,188 Exports : 1,158 1,063 975 1,000 Use, total : 2,353 2,235 2,163 2,188 Ending stocks : 546 540 624 530 CCC inventory : 61 54 40 40 Free stocks : 485 486 584 490 Outstanding loans : 37 58 60 55 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.40 3.40 3.00- 3.40 3.20- 3.60 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2004/05 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 157 64 72 26 546 Production : 856 525 380 306 90 2,158 Supply, total 3/ : 1,084 690 466 390 145 2,775 Domestic use : 503 217 256 120 76 1,172 Exports : 388 314 122 207 31 1,063 Use, total : 891 531 378 327 108 2,235 Ending stocks, total : 193 159 88 62 38 540 : 2005/06 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 193 159 88 62 38 540 Production : 925 467 309 298 100 2,098 Supply, total 3/ : 1,119 639 418 376 167 2,718 Domestic use : 509 245 248 112 74 1,188 Exports : 425 275 85 175 40 1,000 Use, total : 934 520 333 287 114 2,188 Ending stocks, total : October : 185 119 85 89 53 530 September : 198 178 96 106 45 624 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-427-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.0 97.0 96.9 96.3 Harvested : 85.7 86.0 85.8 85.1 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.21 3.71 3.35 3.43 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 30.9 28.7 58.8 58.7 Production : 274.9 319.2 287.3 291.6 Imports : 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 Supply, total : 308.2 350.0 348.2 352.4 Feed and residual : 155.7 166.0 156.4 156.8 Food, seed & industrial : 69.9 73.9 78.4 78.8 Domestic, total : 225.7 239.9 234.8 235.6 Exports : 53.8 51.3 56.0 56.0 Use, total : 279.4 291.3 290.8 291.6 Ending stocks, total : 28.7 58.7 57.4 60.8 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 28.7 58.7 57.4 60.8 Outstanding loans : 4.4 7.2 7.2 7.7 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.6 80.9 81.6 81.6 Harvested : 70.9 73.6 74.3 74.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 142.2 160.4 143.2 146.1 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,087 958 2,125 2,112 Production : 10,089 11,807 10,639 10,857 Imports : 14 10 10 10 Supply, total : 11,190 12,775 12,774 12,980 Feed and residual : 5,795 6,160 5,825 5,875 Food, seed & industrial : 2,537 2,688 2,870 2,885 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 1,168 1,325 1,500 1,500 Domestic, total : 8,332 8,848 8,695 8,760 Exports : 1,900 1,815 2,000 2,000 Use, total : 10,232 10,663 10,695 10,760 Ending stocks, total : 958 2,112 2,079 2,220 CCC inventory : 0 1 1 1 Free stocks : 958 2,111 2,078 2,219 Outstanding loans : 164 280 280 300 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.42 2.06 1.70- 2.10 1.65- 2.05 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-427-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.4 7.5 7.0 6.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.8 6.5 6.0 5.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 52.7 69.8 66.0 66.0 Beginning stocks : 43 34 46 57 Production : 411 455 398 375 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 454 488 444 432 Feed and residual : 182 191 165 150 Food, seed & industrial : 40 55 53 55 Total domestic : 222 246 218 205 Exports : 199 185 180 180 Use, total : 421 431 398 385 Ending stocks, total : 34 57 46 47 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.39 1.79 1.50- 1.90 1.50- 1.90 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.9 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.0 3.5 3.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 69.6 68.2 64.8 Beginning stocks : 69 120 129 128 Production : 278 280 237 212 Imports : 21 12 15 15 Supply, total : 368 412 380 356 Feed and residual : 72 116 100 80 Food, seed & industrial : 157 145 140 140 Total domestic : 229 261 240 220 Exports : 19 23 25 25 Use, total : 248 284 265 245 Ending stocks, total : 120 128 115 111 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.83 2.48 2.10- 2.50 2.30- 2.60 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.6 4.1 4.3 4.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 65.0 64.7 64.7 63.1 Beginning stocks : 50 65 58 58 Production : 144 116 128 115 Imports : 90 88 85 85 Supply, total : 284 268 271 258 Feed and residual : 144 134 130 125 Food, seed & industrial : 73 74 74 74 Total domestic : 217 208 204 199 Exports : 2 3 3 3 Use, total : 219 210 207 202 Ending stocks, total : 65 58 64 56 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.48 1.48 1.40- 1.70 1.45- 1.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-427-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.02 3.35 3.37 3.37 Harvested : 3.00 3.33 3.34 3.34 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,670 6,942 6,830 6,678 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 26.8 23.7 37.7 37.7 Production : 199.9 230.8 228.3 223.2 Imports : 15.0 13.2 15.0 15.0 Supply, total : 241.7 267.7 281.0 275.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 115.0 119.7 126.1 126.1 Exports, total 4/ : 103.1 110.3 121.0 119.0 Rough : 34.4 35.2 38.0 37.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 68.7 75.2 83.0 82.0 Use, total : 218.0 230.0 247.1 245.1 Ending stocks : 23.7 37.7 33.9 30.8 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.8 70.8 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.08 7.33 7.25- 7.55 7.45- 7.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 2.57 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,451 6,569 Beginning stocks : 15.7 10.3 22.7 22.7 Production : 149.0 168.9 181.5 175.1 Supply, total 7/ : 174.5 189.7 215.4 209.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 83.4 82.9 91.0 91.0 Exports 8/ : 80.7 84.1 98.0 95.0 Use, total : 164.2 167.0 189.0 186.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 22.7 26.4 23.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.69 0.75 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,407 8,212 Beginning stocks : 9.3 12.4 13.8 13.8 Production : 50.9 61.9 46.9 48.1 Supply, total 7/ : 66.2 76.8 64.4 65.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 31.5 36.7 35.1 35.1 Exports 8/ : 22.3 26.3 23.0 24.0 Use, total : 53.9 63.0 58.1 59.1 Ending stocks : 12.4 13.8 6.3 6.5 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0; 2005/06-1.1. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-427-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.4 75.2 73.1 72.2 Harvested : 72.5 74.0 72.2 71.3 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 33.9 42.2 39.6 41.6 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 178 112 295 256 Production : 2,454 3,124 2,856 2,967 Imports : 6 6 4 4 Supply, total : 2,638 3,242 3,155 3,227 Crushings : 1,529 1,696 1,685 1,695 Exports : 887 1,095 1,115 1,115 Seed : 92 88 90 90 Residual : 17 107 60 66 Use, total : 2,525 2,987 2,950 2,966 Ending stocks : 112 256 205 260 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.34 5.74 5.15- 6.05 5.00 - 5.80 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,489 1,076 1,721 1,571 Production : 17,081 19,320 _3/ 18,975 19,155 Imports : 306 25 65 65 Supply, total : 18,875 20,421 20,761 20,791 Domestic : 16,864 17,500 17,650 17,850 Exports : 936 1,350 1,500 1,300 Use, total : 17,800 18,850 19,150 19,150 Ending stocks : 1,076 1,571 1,611 1,641 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 29.97 23.01 21.50- 22.00- : 24.50 25.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 220 211 260 260 Production : 36,325 40,634 _3/ 40,075 40,375 Imports : 285 115 165 165 Supply, total : 36,830 40,960 40,500 40,800 Domestic : 31,449 33,400 33,850 34,000 Exports : 5,170 7,300 6,400 6,550 Use, total : 36,619 40,700 40,250 40,550 Ending stocks : 211 260 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 256.05 182.89 165.00- 155.00- : 195.00 185.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on an October year crush estimate of 1,705 million bushels. WASDE-427-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :====================== : : : September October ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,670 1,897 1,528 1,515 Production 2/ : 8,649 7,902 7,964 7,874 Beet sugar : 4,692 4,622 4,375 4,375 Cane sugar : 3,957 3,280 3,589 3,499 Florida : 2,154 1,692 1,899 1,913 Hawaii : 251 268 254 254 Louisiana : 1,377 1,160 1,256 1,152 Texas : 175 160 180 180 Imports : 1,754 2,061 1,837 2,065 TRQ 3/ : 1,230 1,404 1,412 1,680 Other program 4/ : 464 500 325 325 Other 5/ : 60 157 100 60 Supply, total : 12,073 11,860 11,329 11,454 : Exports : 288 250 200 200 Deliveries : 9,862 10,095 10,115 10,165 Food : 9,678 9,925 9,950 10,000 Other 6/ : 184 170 165 165 Miscellaneous 7/ : 26 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,176 10,345 10,315 10,365 Ending stocks : 1,897 1,515 1,014 1,089 Stocks to use ratio : 18.6 14.6 9.8 10.5 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2005/06 are on processor reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2005/06, shortfall is 50,000 tons. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Includes high-tier and other. 6/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- Metric-Ton Equivalent : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-427-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.48 13.66 14.18 14.18 Harvested : 12.00 13.06 13.67 13.67 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 730 855 782 797 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 5.39 3.51 5.75 5.65 Production : 18.26 23.25 22.28 22.72 Imports : 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 23.69 26.79 28.07 28.41 Domestic use : 6.22 6.48 5.80 6.00 Exports : 13.76 14.41 15.30 16.00 Use, total : 19.98 20.88 21.10 22.00 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.20 0.25 -0.03 0.01 Ending stocks : 3.51 5.65 7.00 6.40 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 61.8 41.6 42.1 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Average price for August 2005. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2005/06 is 29.6 percent. WASDE-427-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 166.11 554.19 102.25 96.71 588.63 109.38 131.67 United States : 13.37 63.81 1.72 5.52 32.51 31.52 14.87 Total foreign : 152.74 490.38 100.54 91.19 556.12 77.86 116.80 Major exporters 4/ : 27.04 170.66 6.22 57.55 126.73 54.16 23.04 Argentina : 1.53 14.00 0.00 0.08 5.23 9.41 0.90 Australia : 3.14 26.23 0.07 3.23 5.96 18.03 5.46 Canada : 5.73 23.55 0.23 3.44 7.64 15.79 6.08 EU-25 5/ : 16.64 106.88 5.91 50.80 107.90 10.93 10.60 Major importers 6/ : 79.20 149.36 51.89 9.97 210.64 6.80 63.01 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.18 0.20 9.80 1.38 0.51 China : 60.38 86.49 3.75 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.85 17.99 7.95 1.30 26.22 1.00 5.56 N. Africa 8/ : 5.96 16.29 15.48 0.30 30.08 0.18 7.47 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.58 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 10.09 1.32 9.20 0.32 2.15 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.01 0.60 68.26 5.65 6.90 FSU-12 : 16.48 60.91 7.26 17.58 65.87 7.79 10.99 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.03 12.50 35.50 3.11 2.65 Kazakhstan : 3.67 11.00 0.01 2.70 6.80 4.11 3.78 Ukraine : 3.25 3.60 3.37 0.43 9.03 0.07 1.13 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 131.67 625.15 110.03 106.42 608.05 109.87 148.77 United States : 14.87 58.74 1.92 5.08 31.91 28.92 14.70 Total foreign : 116.80 566.42 108.11 101.34 576.14 80.95 134.08 Major exporters 4/ : 23.04 200.12 7.54 65.19 135.83 54.97 39.90 Argentina : 0.90 16.00 0.01 0.08 5.30 10.80 0.81 Australia : 5.46 21.50 0.08 3.60 6.30 14.80 5.93 Canada : 6.08 25.86 0.25 5.01 9.23 14.97 7.99 EU-25 5/ : 10.60 136.76 7.20 56.50 115.00 14.40 25.16 Major importers 6/ : 63.01 154.76 60.73 8.24 213.54 3.36 61.60 Brazil : 0.51 5.85 5.30 0.30 10.20 0.02 1.43 China : 43.29 91.95 6.75 4.00 102.00 1.17 38.82 Select. Mideast 7/ : 5.56 18.16 9.69 1.95 27.96 0.60 4.86 N. Africa 8/ : 7.47 16.62 18.43 0.30 32.63 0.22 9.67 Pakistan : 1.58 19.00 1.42 0.40 19.50 0.05 2.45 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.15 0.00 9.69 0.86 9.25 0.37 2.21 Selected other : India : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 72.76 2.12 4.10 FSU-12 : 10.99 86.43 4.59 20.81 72.71 15.19 14.11 Russia : 2.65 45.30 1.20 13.60 37.40 7.95 3.79 Kazakhstan : 3.78 9.95 0.02 2.70 7.40 2.70 3.64 Ukraine : 1.13 17.50 0.05 2.10 11.70 4.35 2.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-427-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 147.96 610.26 106.89 112.54 618.56 109.76 139.66 October : 148.77 607.96 107.54 112.86 619.31 109.49 137.43 United States : September : 14.69 58.98 2.18 5.44 32.33 26.54 16.98 October : 14.70 57.11 2.18 5.44 32.33 27.22 14.43 Total foreign : September : 133.27 551.28 104.71 107.10 586.23 83.23 122.68 October : 134.08 550.86 105.36 107.42 586.97 82.28 123.00 Major exporters 4/ : September : 40.73 181.97 7.04 68.48 139.60 54.00 36.14 October : 39.90 180.87 7.54 68.78 139.90 53.30 35.10 Argentina Sep : 0.81 12.50 0.01 0.08 5.30 7.50 0.52 Oct : 0.81 11.70 0.01 0.08 5.30 6.80 0.42 Australia Sep : 5.93 21.50 0.08 3.40 6.10 15.50 5.91 Oct : 5.93 22.00 0.08 3.40 6.10 16.00 5.91 Canada Sep : 7.99 24.50 0.25 4.50 8.70 16.00 8.04 Oct : 7.99 25.50 0.25 4.80 9.00 16.00 8.74 EU-25 5/ Sep : 26.00 123.47 6.70 60.50 119.50 15.00 21.67 Oct : 25.16 121.67 7.20 60.50 119.50 14.50 20.04 Major importers 6/ : September : 59.97 155.35 56.55 7.70 213.14 3.65 55.09 October : 61.60 155.90 56.55 7.60 213.89 3.65 56.51 Brazil Sep : 1.43 4.80 5.20 0.20 10.20 0.05 1.18 Oct : 1.43 4.80 5.20 0.20 10.20 0.05 1.18 China Sep : 37.87 95.00 3.00 3.50 101.00 1.00 33.87 Oct : 38.82 95.00 2.50 3.50 101.00 1.00 34.32 Sel. Mideast 7/Sep : 4.89 18.32 10.40 1.90 27.59 1.00 5.02 Oct : 4.86 18.32 10.90 1.90 27.94 1.00 5.14 N. Africa 8/ Sep : 9.14 12.38 18.60 0.30 33.13 0.21 6.78 Oct : 9.67 12.92 18.60 0.30 33.33 0.21 7.65 Pakistan Sep : 2.45 21.00 0.50 0.40 20.00 0.05 3.90 Oct : 2.45 21.00 0.50 0.40 20.00 0.05 3.90 SE Asia 9/ Sep : 2.21 0.00 9.55 0.88 9.35 0.39 2.02 Oct : 2.21 0.00 9.55 0.88 9.35 0.39 2.02 Selected other : India Sep : 4.10 72.00 1.00 0.50 73.00 0.50 3.60 Oct : 4.10 72.00 1.00 0.50 73.00 0.50 3.60 FSU-12 Sep : 14.11 92.56 4.14 23.81 76.05 20.24 14.53 Oct : 14.11 92.06 3.94 23.81 76.05 19.74 14.33 Russia Sep : 3.79 48.50 1.20 15.50 39.00 10.00 4.49 Oct : 3.79 48.50 1.00 15.50 39.00 10.00 4.29 Kazakhstan Sep : 3.64 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.40 4.00 3.76 Oct : 3.64 11.00 0.02 2.70 7.40 3.50 3.76 Ukraine Sep : 2.63 19.00 0.05 3.30 13.30 6.00 2.38 Oct : 2.63 19.00 0.05 3.30 13.30 6.00 2.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-427-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 167.05 913.80 100.65 614.46 945.45 103.90 135.41 United States : 30.94 275.10 2.44 155.79 225.96 53.75 28.76 Total foreign : 136.11 638.70 98.22 458.67 719.49 50.14 106.64 Major exporters 4/ : 7.87 70.09 2.44 33.89 47.08 22.94 10.37 Argentina : 1.04 18.60 0.05 5.00 7.36 11.33 1.00 Australia : 1.20 14.81 0.00 5.47 6.70 7.22 2.09 Canada : 3.14 26.33 2.08 19.21 23.81 3.64 4.09 Major importers 5/ : 37.94 195.43 79.03 205.51 274.60 5.50 32.30 EU-25 6/ : 21.50 122.97 8.01 101.94 135.47 4.39 12.63 Japan : 2.40 0.20 19.98 15.61 20.44 0.00 2.15 Mexico : 3.89 30.10 8.85 21.15 37.23 0.01 5.60 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 3.77 26.03 15.74 33.99 40.52 0.35 4.68 Saudi Arabia : 2.65 0.20 8.42 8.65 8.84 0.00 2.43 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.04 15.56 3.92 12.73 18.04 0.75 1.72 South Korea : 1.29 0.30 8.99 6.78 9.14 0.00 1.43 Selected other : China : 66.37 124.64 1.53 99.46 139.20 7.72 45.61 Other Europe : 3.09 18.84 1.35 17.20 20.79 0.36 2.12 FSU-12 : 11.98 55.37 1.46 39.23 56.57 6.09 6.16 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.95 21.53 33.25 2.47 2.93 Ukraine : 2.65 15.60 0.14 10.50 13.80 2.77 1.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 135.41 1008.16 98.55 636.45 972.07 101.13 171.49 United States : 28.76 319.45 2.18 166.14 240.28 51.35 58.76 Total foreign : 106.64 688.71 96.38 470.31 731.79 49.78 112.73 Major exporters 4/ : 10.37 73.78 2.84 35.71 49.45 24.82 12.72 Argentina : 1.00 23.90 0.01 6.45 9.06 14.61 1.25 Australia : 2.09 10.96 0.00 5.21 6.44 5.07 1.54 Canada : 4.09 26.39 2.50 19.54 24.37 2.81 5.80 Major importers 5/ : 32.30 223.57 74.73 211.27 281.54 4.73 44.33 EU-25 6/ : 12.63 150.58 3.11 106.26 139.64 4.13 22.55 Japan : 2.15 0.20 19.64 15.31 20.14 0.00 1.85 Mexico : 5.60 29.56 9.25 22.28 38.45 0.01 5.94 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.68 26.80 19.81 37.05 44.25 0.06 6.98 Saudi Arabia : 2.43 0.20 6.70 6.43 6.61 0.00 2.72 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.72 15.82 2.92 12.65 18.46 0.53 1.47 South Korea : 1.43 0.34 8.66 6.79 9.22 0.00 1.21 Selected other : China : 45.61 138.29 2.06 100.40 141.56 7.33 37.07 Other Europe : 2.12 28.87 0.74 19.38 24.72 2.23 4.78 FSU-12 : 6.16 62.86 1.22 38.02 54.50 7.99 7.75 Russia : 2.93 29.55 0.80 19.00 29.35 1.09 2.84 Ukraine : 1.82 23.00 0.07 11.35 15.20 6.72 2.97 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-427-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 172.59 938.97 98.09 624.31 963.68 100.50 147.88 October : 171.49 941.89 98.61 624.69 966.41 99.98 146.97 United States : September : 58.83 287.56 2.15 156.54 235.14 55.97 57.44 October : 58.76 291.80 2.16 156.90 235.94 55.97 60.81 Total foreign : September : 113.76 651.40 95.95 467.78 728.53 44.54 90.44 October : 112.73 650.09 96.45 467.79 730.47 44.02 86.16 Major exporters 4/ : September : 13.14 67.99 2.78 35.60 49.65 23.91 10.35 October : 12.72 65.74 2.88 35.20 49.25 23.11 8.98 Argentina Sep : 1.25 22.65 0.00 6.66 9.27 13.51 1.11 Oct : 1.25 22.00 0.00 6.56 9.17 13.01 1.06 Australia Sep : 1.54 11.06 0.00 4.99 6.24 4.97 1.38 Oct : 1.54 10.76 0.00 4.99 6.24 4.97 1.08 Canada Sep : 5.81 24.73 2.56 19.51 24.59 3.60 4.91 Oct : 5.80 24.46 2.56 19.24 24.32 3.60 4.90 Major importers 5/ : September : 43.15 199.62 75.40 209.04 279.10 5.72 33.35 October : 44.33 197.43 75.60 208.57 278.57 5.82 32.97 EU-25 6/ Sep : 22.41 130.29 3.14 101.33 134.67 5.16 16.01 Oct : 22.55 128.24 3.14 100.80 134.14 5.16 14.63 Japan Sep : 1.85 0.19 19.84 15.21 20.04 0.00 1.84 Oct : 1.85 0.19 19.84 15.21 20.04 0.00 1.84 Mexico Sep : 5.31 27.73 10.55 22.98 39.40 0.01 4.18 Oct : 5.94 27.48 10.55 22.98 39.40 0.01 4.56 N Afr/M.East 7/Sep : 6.82 24.52 17.82 37.18 43.89 0.23 5.04 Oct : 6.98 24.38 18.02 37.23 43.89 0.33 5.17 Saudi Arabia Sep : 2.72 0.20 7.40 7.43 7.61 0.00 2.71 Oct : 2.72 0.20 7.40 7.43 7.61 0.00 2.71 S.-east Asia 8/Sep : 1.43 16.27 3.21 13.48 19.34 0.33 1.24 Oct : 1.47 16.52 3.21 13.48 19.34 0.33 1.54 South Korea Sep : 1.01 0.35 8.71 6.94 9.37 0.00 0.69 Oct : 1.21 0.35 8.71 6.94 9.37 0.00 0.89 Selected other : China Sep : 37.24 135.70 2.31 101.90 144.80 3.10 27.35 Oct : 37.07 133.90 2.31 101.70 144.00 3.03 26.25 Other Europe Sep : 4.88 24.38 0.82 19.11 24.39 2.20 3.49 Oct : 4.78 24.78 0.82 19.41 24.69 2.20 3.49 FSU-12 Sep : 7.75 54.57 1.10 34.58 51.15 6.47 5.80 Oct : 7.75 55.47 1.10 35.18 51.80 6.97 5.55 Russia Sep : 2.84 28.30 0.65 18.00 28.70 0.81 2.29 Oct : 2.84 28.80 0.65 18.60 29.35 0.81 2.14 Ukraine Sep : 2.97 16.67 0.09 9.10 12.57 5.18 1.98 Oct : 2.97 17.17 0.09 9.10 12.57 5.68 1.98 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-427-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 123.38 623.34 76.51 444.57 647.02 77.34 99.70 United States : 27.60 256.28 0.36 147.20 211.64 48.26 24.34 Total foreign : 95.78 367.06 76.15 297.37 435.38 29.08 75.36 Major exporters 4/ : 2.97 24.70 0.25 6.88 13.08 11.67 3.18 Argentina : 0.53 15.00 0.04 2.80 4.40 10.94 0.22 South Africa : 2.44 9.70 0.22 4.08 8.68 0.73 2.96 Major importers 5/ : 13.44 82.96 49.64 91.37 130.97 1.20 13.88 Egypt : 0.20 5.74 3.74 8.00 9.50 0.00 0.18 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.88 5.75 36.01 46.81 0.46 3.18 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.78 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 3.24 21.80 5.74 11.20 26.40 0.01 4.37 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.04 15.42 3.89 12.60 17.90 0.73 1.72 South Korea : 1.29 0.07 8.78 6.60 8.71 0.00 1.43 Selected other : Brazil : 4.80 42.00 0.36 33.00 38.60 4.44 4.12 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.03 8.73 11.23 0.37 1.14 China : 64.97 115.83 0.00 97.00 128.40 7.55 44.85 Other Europe : 2.58 15.13 0.91 14.35 16.67 0.34 1.61 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.53 0.64 9.55 11.04 1.31 1.35 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 99.70 708.58 74.55 467.89 682.02 76.76 126.26 United States : 24.34 299.92 0.25 156.47 224.75 46.10 53.65 Total foreign : 75.36 408.67 74.29 311.42 457.27 30.66 72.61 Major exporters 4/ : 3.18 31.50 0.16 7.80 14.15 16.30 4.39 Argentina : 0.22 19.50 0.01 3.50 5.20 14.00 0.53 South Africa : 2.96 12.00 0.15 4.30 8.95 2.30 3.86 Major importers 5/ : 13.88 97.51 46.21 99.10 139.41 0.72 17.47 Egypt : 0.18 5.78 5.30 9.00 10.60 0.00 0.66 EU-25 6/ : 3.18 53.35 2.50 41.70 52.50 0.20 6.33 Japan : 1.34 0.00 16.50 12.20 16.70 0.00 1.14 Mexico : 4.37 22.63 6.00 12.60 27.90 0.01 5.09 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.72 15.62 2.91 12.50 18.30 0.51 1.44 South Korea : 1.43 0.08 8.50 6.70 8.80 0.00 1.21 Selected other : Brazil : 4.12 35.00 0.70 33.50 38.90 0.60 0.32 Canada : 1.14 8.80 2.40 8.30 10.95 0.20 1.20 China : 44.85 130.30 0.05 98.50 131.50 7.30 36.40 Other Europe : 1.61 23.44 0.36 15.89 19.68 1.65 4.09 FSU-12 : 1.35 15.30 0.49 10.94 12.59 2.33 2.22 Russia : 0.16 3.45 0.20 3.00 3.55 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-427-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 127.81 663.49 74.51 461.90 679.53 75.37 111.77 October : 126.26 668.18 74.81 464.03 682.57 74.82 111.88 United States : September : 53.99 270.23 0.25 147.96 220.86 50.80 52.81 October : 53.65 275.79 0.25 149.23 222.51 50.80 56.38 Total foreign : September : 73.82 393.26 74.26 313.94 458.67 24.57 58.96 October : 72.61 392.39 74.56 314.80 460.06 24.02 55.49 Major exporters 4/ : September : 4.79 27.50 0.10 8.00 14.40 14.80 3.19 October : 4.39 26.00 0.20 8.00 14.40 14.00 2.19 Argentina Sep : 0.53 18.50 0.00 3.80 5.50 13.00 0.53 Oct : 0.53 18.00 0.00 3.80 5.50 12.50 0.53 South Africa Sep : 4.26 9.00 0.10 4.20 8.90 1.80 2.66 Oct : 3.86 8.00 0.20 4.20 8.90 1.50 1.66 Major importers 5/ : September : 16.58 90.29 47.50 99.40 139.87 0.91 13.59 October : 17.47 88.77 47.50 99.10 139.57 0.91 13.26 Egypt Sep : 0.66 5.95 5.30 9.60 11.30 0.00 0.61 Oct : 0.66 5.95 5.30 9.60 11.30 0.00 0.61 EU-25 6/ Sep : 6.32 47.65 2.50 40.50 51.10 0.60 4.76 Oct : 6.33 45.87 2.50 40.00 50.60 0.60 3.50 Japan Sep : 1.14 0.00 16.70 12.10 16.60 0.00 1.24 Oct : 1.14 0.00 16.70 12.10 16.60 0.00 1.24 Mexico Sep : 4.46 20.50 6.70 12.70 28.20 0.01 3.46 Oct : 5.09 20.50 6.70 12.90 28.40 0.01 3.89 S.-east Asia 7/Sep : 1.40 16.07 3.20 13.30 19.15 0.30 1.21 Oct : 1.44 16.32 3.20 13.30 19.15 0.30 1.51 South Korea Sep : 1.01 0.08 8.50 6.80 8.90 0.00 0.69 Oct : 1.21 0.08 8.50 6.80 8.90 0.00 0.89 Selected other : Brazil Sep : 1.01 44.00 0.60 35.00 40.80 1.60 3.21 Oct : 0.32 44.00 0.80 35.00 40.80 1.30 3.02 Canada Sep : 1.28 8.00 2.50 8.10 10.80 0.15 0.83 Oct : 1.20 8.40 2.50 8.10 10.80 0.15 1.15 China Sep : 36.40 127.00 0.20 100.00 134.00 3.00 26.60 Oct : 36.40 126.00 0.20 100.00 134.00 3.00 25.60 Other Europe Sep : 4.19 19.82 0.46 16.01 19.80 1.80 2.87 Oct : 4.09 20.22 0.46 16.31 20.10 1.80 2.87 FSU-12 Sep : 2.22 10.75 0.41 9.09 10.68 1.13 1.58 Oct : 2.22 11.75 0.41 9.69 11.33 1.63 1.43 Russia Sep : 0.26 2.50 0.20 2.10 2.60 0.00 0.36 Oct : 0.26 3.00 0.20 2.70 3.25 0.00 0.21 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-427-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 3/ : 110.16 391.49 24.96 415.30 27.41 86.35 United States : 0.83 6.42 0.48 3.66 3.31 0.76 Total foreign : 109.33 385.07 24.48 411.65 24.10 85.59 Major exporters 4/ : 18.41 133.22 0.30 115.55 19.48 16.90 India : 11.00 88.28 0.00 85.38 3.10 10.80 Pakistan : 0.05 4.85 0.00 2.70 1.95 0.24 Thailand : 3.30 18.01 0.00 9.47 10.14 1.71 Vietnam : 4.07 22.08 0.30 18.00 4.30 4.15 Major importers 5/ : 12.34 59.35 9.37 68.14 0.37 12.55 Brazil : 0.59 8.71 0.81 8.69 0.08 1.34 EU-25 6/ : 0.96 1.72 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.97 Indonesia : 4.34 35.02 0.65 36.00 0.00 4.02 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.45 4.00 0.00 1.00 Philippines : 3.81 9.20 1.29 10.25 0.00 4.05 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.21 2.99 5.15 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.13 1.63 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.07 0.35 0.45 0.00 0.11 China : 67.22 112.46 1.12 135.00 0.88 44.93 Egypt : 0.87 4.03 0.00 3.23 0.83 0.85 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.54 0.73 0.00 0.18 South Korea : 1.03 4.45 0.19 4.64 0.21 0.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 3/ : 86.35 401.89 25.50 415.03 27.20 73.21 United States : 0.76 7.41 0.42 3.84 3.54 1.21 Total foreign : 85.59 394.48 25.08 411.19 23.65 72.00 Major exporters 4/ : 16.90 129.86 0.10 113.84 18.90 14.12 India : 10.80 85.31 0.00 83.11 4.50 8.50 Pakistan : 0.24 4.92 0.00 2.75 2.10 0.31 Thailand : 1.71 17.00 0.00 9.48 7.50 1.73 Vietnam : 4.15 22.63 0.10 18.50 4.80 3.58 Major importers 5/ : 12.55 59.60 9.86 68.82 0.54 12.65 Brazil : 1.34 8.98 0.55 9.00 0.30 1.57 EU-25 6/ : 0.97 1.86 1.00 2.53 0.18 1.13 Indonesia : 4.02 34.25 0.90 35.85 0.00 3.32 Nigeria : 1.00 2.30 1.37 4.25 0.00 0.42 Philippines : 4.05 9.45 1.50 10.40 0.00 4.59 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.27 3.45 5.22 0.06 1.43 Selected other : Burma : 1.63 9.57 0.00 10.30 0.15 0.75 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.11 0.07 0.40 0.47 0.00 0.11 China : 44.93 125.36 0.50 135.10 0.75 34.94 Egypt : 0.85 4.13 0.00 3.25 1.10 0.63 Japan : 1.70 7.94 0.68 8.30 0.20 1.82 Mexico : 0.18 0.20 0.55 0.80 0.00 0.13 South Korea : 0.82 5.00 0.17 4.74 0.35 0.90 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-427-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 73.42 405.62 23.99 413.40 25.01 65.64 October : 73.21 404.71 24.30 413.63 25.04 64.29 United States : September : 1.21 7.25 0.48 4.02 3.84 1.08 October : 1.21 7.09 0.48 4.02 3.78 0.98 Total foreign : September : 72.21 398.37 23.51 409.38 21.17 64.57 October : 72.00 397.63 23.83 409.61 21.27 63.32 Major exporters 4/ : September : 14.17 130.07 0.04 112.29 17.50 14.49 October : 14.12 130.30 0.04 112.29 17.50 14.67 India Sep : 8.50 84.50 0.00 81.00 3.50 8.50 Oct : 8.50 85.00 0.00 81.00 3.50 9.00 Pakistan Sep : 0.31 5.00 0.00 2.80 2.00 0.51 Oct : 0.31 5.00 0.00 2.80 2.00 0.51 Thailand Sep : 1.48 17.80 0.00 9.49 8.00 1.79 Oct : 1.73 17.80 0.00 9.49 8.00 2.04 Vietnam Sep : 3.88 22.77 0.04 19.00 4.00 3.69 Oct : 3.58 22.50 0.04 19.00 4.00 3.12 Major importers 5/ : September : 12.69 59.54 9.44 69.27 0.36 12.04 October : 12.65 59.34 9.69 69.27 0.36 12.05 Brazil Sep : 1.45 8.10 0.55 9.21 0.13 0.77 Oct : 1.57 7.80 0.70 9.21 0.13 0.73 EU-25 6/ Sep : 1.13 1.71 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.09 Oct : 1.13 1.71 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.09 Indonesia Sep : 3.32 34.90 0.70 35.60 0.00 3.32 Oct : 3.32 34.90 0.70 35.60 0.00 3.32 Nigeria Sep : 0.57 2.60 1.50 4.35 0.00 0.32 Oct : 0.42 2.70 1.60 4.35 0.00 0.37 Philippines Sep : 4.59 9.50 1.25 10.60 0.00 4.74 Oct : 4.59 9.50 1.25 10.60 0.00 4.74 Sel. Mideast 7/Sep : 1.43 2.27 3.40 5.37 0.06 1.67 Oct : 1.43 2.27 3.40 5.37 0.06 1.67 Selected other : Burma Sep : 0.75 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.15 0.64 Oct : 0.75 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.15 0.64 C. Am & Car. 8/Sep : 0.11 0.07 0.40 0.47 0.00 0.10 Oct : 0.11 0.07 0.40 0.47 0.00 0.10 China Sep : 34.58 127.50 0.60 135.20 0.60 26.88 Oct : 34.94 126.00 0.60 135.20 0.60 25.74 Egypt Sep : 0.40 4.00 0.00 3.30 0.75 0.35 Oct : 0.63 4.19 0.00 3.30 0.85 0.67 Japan Sep : 1.82 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.07 Oct : 1.82 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.07 Mexico Sep : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.83 0.00 0.10 Oct : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.83 0.00 0.10 South Korea Sep : 0.95 4.90 0.25 4.66 0.00 1.44 Oct : 0.90 4.90 0.31 4.66 0.00 1.44 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-427-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World : 42.35 95.06 34.02 98.20 33.16 -0.54 40.62 United States : 5.39 18.26 0.05 6.22 13.76 0.20 3.51 Total foreign : 36.96 76.81 33.97 91.98 19.40 -0.74 37.11 Major exporters 4/ : 11.55 30.69 3.18 18.11 14.93 -0.16 12.54 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.78 6.74 0.01 1.67 5.14 0.00 1.71 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.56 4.39 3/ 0.20 4.44 0.00 1.30 S. Hemis. 7/ : 4.85 9.36 0.95 5.02 3.90 -0.20 6.44 Australia : 1.30 1.70 3/ 0.08 2.16 -0.12 0.89 Brazil : 2.88 6.02 0.55 3.95 0.96 -0.10 4.63 Major importers : 23.19 42.67 26.17 67.23 3.05 -0.59 22.34 India : 3.59 13.80 0.80 13.50 0.63 0.00 4.06 Mexico : 1.07 0.36 1.86 2.00 0.11 0.03 1.14 China : 13.10 22.30 8.83 32.00 0.17 -0.75 12.81 EU-25 8/ : 1.53 1.96 3.15 3.90 1.72 0.06 0.96 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.37 4.10 2.37 6.20 0.36 0.00 1.28 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.33 0.15 7.68 8.13 0.06 0.08 1.89 Indonesia : 0.40 0.03 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.56 0.06 1.68 1.85 0.00 0.03 0.42 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World : 40.62 120.43 33.02 108.75 34.96 -0.62 50.98 United States : 3.51 23.25 0.03 6.48 14.41 0.25 5.65 Total foreign : 37.11 97.18 32.99 102.27 20.55 -0.88 45.33 Major exporters 4/ : 12.54 38.00 2.25 19.43 16.41 -0.16 17.11 Pakistan : 2.03 11.30 1.40 10.75 0.55 0.03 3.41 Central Asia 5/ : 1.71 8.04 3/ 1.51 5.90 0.00 2.35 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.30 4.89 3/ 0.20 4.08 0.00 1.90 S. Hemis. 7/ : 6.44 10.32 0.45 5.24 4.20 -0.20 7.96 Australia : 0.89 3.00 3/ 0.07 2.00 -0.12 1.95 Brazil : 4.63 5.90 0.21 4.20 1.56 -0.10 5.08 Major importers : 22.34 55.21 26.15 76.21 2.81 -0.74 25.42 India : 4.06 19.00 0.80 15.00 0.80 0.00 8.06 Mexico : 1.14 0.63 1.81 2.05 0.14 0.03 1.37 China : 12.81 29.00 6.39 38.50 0.03 -0.90 10.56 EU-25 8/ : 0.96 2.30 3.12 3.52 1.64 0.06 1.16 Russia : 0.20 3/ 1.45 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.28 4.15 3.41 7.00 0.15 0.00 1.69 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.89 0.14 9.18 8.72 0.06 0.08 2.36 Indonesia : 0.37 0.03 2.40 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.48 Thailand : 0.42 0.06 2.28 2.15 0.00 0.03 0.58 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-427-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World : September : 50.62 111.53 39.18 112.20 38.69 -0.77 51.20 October : 50.98 111.44 40.73 112.93 40.22 -0.97 50.98 United States : September : 5.75 22.28 0.04 5.80 15.30 -0.03 7.00 October : 5.65 22.72 0.04 6.00 16.00 0.01 6.40 Total foreign : September : 44.87 89.25 39.14 106.40 23.39 -0.74 44.20 October : 45.33 88.72 40.69 106.93 24.22 -0.98 44.58 Major exporters 4/ : September : 17.05 34.84 2.23 19.96 17.94 -0.16 16.38 October : 17.11 34.59 2.58 19.94 18.40 -0.16 16.11 Pakistan Sep : 3.41 10.00 1.25 11.25 0.50 0.03 2.88 Oct : 3.41 9.50 1.60 11.25 0.38 0.03 2.86 Central Asia 5/Sep : 2.35 7.64 3/ 1.56 6.10 0.00 2.33 Oct : 2.35 7.84 3/ 1.56 6.36 0.00 2.27 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Sep : 1.95 4.61 3/ 0.19 4.51 0.00 1.86 Oct : 1.90 4.64 3/ 0.19 4.54 0.00 1.81 S. Hemis 7/ Sep : 7.88 9.60 0.43 5.17 5.03 -0.20 7.90 Oct : 7.96 9.50 0.43 5.15 5.25 -0.20 7.68 Australia Sep : 1.95 2.40 3/ 0.06 2.60 -0.12 1.82 Oct : 1.95 2.40 3/ 0.06 2.80 -0.12 1.62 Brazil Sep : 5.08 5.70 0.20 4.10 1.75 -0.10 5.23 Oct : 5.08 5.60 0.20 4.10 1.75 -0.10 5.13 Major importers Sep : 25.16 50.70 32.59 79.83 3.76 -0.59 25.45 Oct : 25.42 50.30 33.79 80.36 4.10 -0.83 25.87 India Sep : 7.91 18.40 0.80 16.40 1.50 0.00 9.21 Oct : 8.06 19.00 0.80 16.50 1.80 0.00 9.56 Mexico Sep : 1.23 0.75 1.25 1.90 0.15 0.03 1.15 Oct : 1.37 0.75 1.20 1.90 0.20 0.03 1.19 China Sep : 10.51 25.50 14.30 41.00 0.03 -0.75 10.04 Oct : 10.56 24.50 15.50 41.50 0.03 -1.00 10.04 EU-25 8/ Sep : 1.18 2.20 2.80 3.22 1.88 0.06 1.01 Oct : 1.16 2.20 2.77 3.16 1.87 0.06 1.04 Russia Sep : 0.22 3/ 1.43 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.20 Oct : 0.22 3/ 1.45 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Sep : 1.78 3.70 3.35 7.05 0.15 0.00 1.63 Oct : 1.69 3.70 3.35 7.05 0.15 0.00 1.54 Sel. Asia 9/ Sep : 2.33 0.15 8.67 8.81 0.05 0.08 2.21 Oct : 2.36 0.15 8.72 8.81 0.06 0.09 2.28 Indonesia Sep : 0.48 0.03 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Oct : 0.48 0.03 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand Sep : 0.55 0.05 2.10 2.15 0.00 0.03 0.53 Oct : 0.58 0.05 2.15 2.18 0.00 0.03 0.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and estimated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-427-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 40.50 186.26 54.25 163.84 189.96 55.86 35.19 United States : 4.85 66.78 0.15 41.62 44.60 24.13 3.06 Total foreign : 35.65 119.48 54.10 122.22 145.36 31.73 32.13 Major exporters 3/ : 28.59 87.41 0.88 55.36 59.93 29.30 27.65 Argentina : 12.47 33.00 0.54 25.04 26.62 6.71 12.68 Brazil : 16.03 50.50 0.33 29.33 32.16 19.82 14.88 Major importers 4/ : 6.05 17.43 43.57 49.00 63.24 0.34 3.46 China : 4.47 15.39 16.93 25.44 34.38 0.32 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.63 14.64 14.13 15.46 0.01 0.74 Japan : 0.31 0.23 4.69 3.54 4.93 0.00 0.30 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 3.80 3.89 3.93 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 35.19 213.35 65.11 175.24 205.58 65.03 43.02 United States : 3.06 85.01 0.16 46.16 51.48 29.80 6.95 Total foreign : 32.13 128.33 64.95 129.08 154.10 35.23 36.07 Major exporters 3/ : 27.65 93.80 1.17 56.16 61.24 32.74 28.64 Argentina : 12.68 39.00 0.62 26.50 28.25 9.60 14.45 Brazil : 14.88 51.00 0.53 28.66 31.77 20.54 14.11 Major importers 4/ : 3.46 19.55 53.06 54.28 69.56 0.42 6.09 China : 2.10 17.40 25.70 30.27 40.12 0.39 4.70 EU-25 : 0.74 0.79 15.80 15.13 16.53 0.01 0.79 Japan : 0.30 0.17 4.30 3.15 4.50 0.00 0.26 Mexico : 0.04 0.13 3.50 3.59 3.63 0.00 0.04 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 44.46 216.72 66.60 184.60 215.18 67.68 44.92 October : 43.02 220.87 67.79 185.44 215.84 68.43 47.41 United States : September : 8.03 77.74 0.11 45.86 49.95 30.35 5.58 October : 6.95 80.75 0.11 46.13 50.38 30.35 7.09 Total foreign : September : 36.43 138.98 66.49 138.74 165.23 37.33 39.34 October : 36.07 140.12 67.68 139.31 165.46 38.08 40.32 Major exporters 3/ : September : 28.99 103.80 0.98 60.24 65.95 34.87 32.96 October : 28.64 105.30 0.98 60.24 65.66 35.58 33.70 Argentina Sep : 15.05 39.00 0.45 27.61 29.56 9.40 15.54 Oct : 14.45 40.50 0.45 27.61 29.61 9.70 16.09 Brazil Sep : 13.86 60.00 0.52 31.03 34.58 22.47 17.33 Oct : 14.11 60.00 0.52 31.03 34.23 22.88 17.52 Major importers 4/ : September : 6.09 19.21 54.43 58.24 74.00 0.39 5.34 October : 6.09 19.21 55.53 59.14 74.90 0.39 5.54 China Sep : 4.70 17.00 27.00 34.25 44.45 0.35 3.90 Oct : 4.70 17.00 27.50 34.55 44.75 0.35 4.10 EU-25 Sep : 0.79 0.77 15.35 14.70 16.11 0.01 0.79 Oct : 0.79 0.77 15.95 15.30 16.71 0.01 0.79 Japan Sep : 0.26 0.23 4.50 3.30 4.69 0.00 0.30 Oct : 0.26 0.23 4.50 3.30 4.69 0.00 0.30 Mexico Sep : 0.04 0.13 3.70 3.79 3.83 0.00 0.04 Oct : 0.04 0.13 3.70 3.79 3.83 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-427-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 4.43 128.92 44.90 129.19 45.37 3.68 United States : 0.20 32.95 0.26 28.53 4.69 0.19 Total foreign : 4.23 95.96 44.64 100.66 40.68 3.49 Major exporters 3/ : 1.16 46.96 0.27 10.02 37.02 1.35 Argentina : 0.35 19.76 0.00 0.62 18.95 0.54 Brazil : 0.77 22.78 0.27 8.28 14.76 0.78 India : 0.05 4.42 0.00 1.12 3.31 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 33.04 26.82 58.83 1.10 1.13 EU-25 : 0.87 11.10 21.91 32.64 0.39 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.02 19.54 0.67 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.68 138.31 46.06 137.94 46.29 3.82 United States : 0.19 36.86 0.10 30.30 6.62 0.24 Total foreign : 3.49 101.45 45.95 107.64 39.66 3.58 Major exporters 3/ : 1.35 47.27 0.20 11.09 36.44 1.28 Argentina : 0.54 20.91 0.00 0.76 19.99 0.69 Brazil : 0.78 22.59 0.20 8.40 14.63 0.54 India : 0.04 3.77 0.00 1.93 1.83 0.05 Major importers 4/ : 1.13 37.74 27.87 64.48 1.11 1.15 EU-25 : 0.85 11.90 22.75 34.28 0.36 0.86 China : 0.00 23.95 0.07 23.32 0.70 0.00 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 3.99 145.22 47.25 144.36 47.85 4.25 October : 3.82 146.14 47.09 145.28 47.65 4.11 United States : September : 0.24 36.36 0.15 30.71 5.81 0.23 October : 0.24 36.63 0.15 30.85 5.94 0.23 Total foreign : September : 3.75 108.87 47.10 113.65 42.05 4.02 October : 3.58 109.51 46.94 114.44 41.71 3.88 Major exporters 3/ : September : 1.48 50.55 0.10 12.21 38.18 1.74 October : 1.28 50.10 0.10 12.07 37.87 1.54 Argentina Sep : 0.89 21.78 0.00 0.90 20.82 0.95 Oct : 0.69 21.67 0.00 0.90 20.72 0.75 Brazil Sep : 0.54 24.36 0.10 9.00 15.26 0.74 Oct : 0.54 24.36 0.10 9.00 15.26 0.74 India Sep : 0.05 4.41 0.00 2.31 2.10 0.05 Oct : 0.05 4.07 0.00 2.17 1.90 0.05 Major importers 4/ : September : 1.12 40.56 28.37 67.75 1.19 1.11 October : 1.15 41.56 28.28 68.64 1.19 1.17 EU-25 Sep : 0.86 11.54 23.30 34.44 0.39 0.86 Oct : 0.86 12.04 23.00 34.64 0.39 0.86 China Sep : 0.00 27.26 0.10 26.61 0.75 0.00 Oct : 0.00 27.50 0.08 26.83 0.75 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-427-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 1.97 29.92 8.42 29.76 8.99 1.56 United States : 0.68 7.75 0.14 7.65 0.43 0.49 Total foreign : 1.30 22.17 8.28 22.11 8.56 1.07 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 12.68 0.08 5.10 7.70 0.34 Argentina : 0.05 4.51 0.00 0.11 4.41 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.64 0.03 2.95 2.72 0.10 EU-25 : 0.23 2.54 0.04 2.03 0.57 0.21 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.57 3.54 9.02 0.03 0.44 China : 0.25 4.54 2.73 7.17 0.02 0.33 India : 0.13 1.02 0.76 1.78 0.02 0.11 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.56 32.20 9.15 31.97 9.17 1.78 United States : 0.49 8.76 0.01 7.94 0.61 0.71 Total foreign : 1.07 23.44 9.14 24.03 8.55 1.07 Major exporters 3/ : 0.34 13.12 0.14 5.47 7.72 0.41 Argentina : 0.04 4.88 0.00 0.12 4.73 0.07 Brazil : 0.10 5.53 0.05 3.11 2.45 0.11 EU-25 : 0.21 2.72 0.09 2.24 0.54 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.44 6.28 3.86 10.11 0.05 0.42 China : 0.33 5.40 1.80 7.27 0.04 0.22 India : 0.11 0.87 2.00 2.78 0.01 0.20 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 1.85 33.79 9.97 33.61 10.20 1.81 October : 1.78 34.02 10.15 34.16 10.03 1.76 United States : September : 0.78 8.61 0.03 8.01 0.68 0.73 October : 0.71 8.69 0.03 8.10 0.59 0.74 Total foreign : September : 1.07 25.19 9.94 25.60 9.52 1.07 October : 1.07 25.33 10.12 26.06 9.44 1.02 Major exporters 3/ : September : 0.38 13.72 0.07 5.26 8.59 0.33 October : 0.41 13.83 0.18 5.61 8.48 0.33 Argentina Sep : 0.07 5.14 0.00 0.12 5.04 0.04 Oct : 0.07 5.14 0.00 0.12 5.04 0.04 Brazil Sep : 0.11 5.95 0.03 3.13 2.86 0.10 Oct : 0.11 5.95 0.03 3.13 2.86 0.10 EU-25 Sep : 0.21 2.64 0.04 2.01 0.69 0.19 Oct : 0.23 2.75 0.15 2.37 0.58 0.19 Major importers 4/ : September : 0.43 7.20 4.48 11.58 0.04 0.50 October : 0.42 7.17 4.53 11.61 0.07 0.45 China Sep : 0.23 6.15 2.40 8.49 0.02 0.27 Oct : 0.22 6.21 2.40 8.55 0.05 0.23 India Sep : 0.20 1.02 2.00 2.98 0.02 0.22 Oct : 0.20 0.94 2.05 2.96 0.02 0.21 Pakistan Sep : 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.01 Oct : 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-427-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2004 : IV : 6097 5435 11623 8537 1389 10053 21676 1906 42.0 Annual : 24548 20509 45419 34063 5454 40022 85441 7443 170.8 : 2005 : I : 5727 5136 10951 8571 1320 10013 20964 1855 43.2 II : 6192 5022 11299 8941 1393 10471 21770 1857 45.7 III : 6560 5025 11666 8950 1365 10450 22116 1875 43.9 IV*: 6350 5550 11999 8750 1400 10280 22279 1910 43.9 Annual : Sep Proj : 25019 20783 46156 35411 5463 41404 87560 7497 176.3 Oct Proj : 24829 20733 45915 35211 5478 41214 87129 7497 176.7 : 2006 : I*: 5950 5200 11245 8825 1310 10260 21505 1865 45.1 II*: 6775 5075 11955 9125 1390 10645 22600 1900 46.8 III*: 6950 5225 12274 9300 1410 10845 23119 1920 44.6 Annual : Sep Proj : 25975 21125 47496 36525 5535 42585 90081 7635 180.3 Oct Proj : 25975 21125 47500 36325 5535 42385 89885 7635 181.3 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2004 : IV : 85.09 54.35 68.3 77.1 68.0 16.07 Annual : 84.75 52.51 74.1 69.7 82.2 16.05 : 2005 : I : 89.09 51.92 71.9 65.9 64.5 15.67 II : 87.96 52.09 72.6 67.7 55.9 14.83 III : 81.79 50.51 72.1 76.5 66.6 14.90 IV*: 81-85 42-44 70-72 77-81 67-69 15.45-15.85 Annual : Sep Proj : 84-86 48-49 72-73 72-73 63-64 15.05-15.25 Oct Proj : 85.46 49.38 71.9 72.3 63.8 15.20-15.30 : 2006 : I*: 76-82 44-48 69-75 63-67 63-67 14.20-14.90 II*: 77-83 46-50 70-76 65-71 60-64 12.80-13.80 III*: 74-80 44-48 71-77 71-77 62-68 12.70-13.70 Annual : Sep Proj : 76-82 43-47 70-76 66-72 63-68 13.10-14.10 Oct Proj : 76-83 43-47 70-76 68-74 63-68 13.35-14.25 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-427-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2004 : 518 24650 3679 28847 460 637 27750 66.1 2005 Proj. Sep : 637 25121 3816 29574 639 575 28360 66.9 Oct : 637 24931 3816 29384 639 575 28170 66.4 2006 Proj. Sep : 575 26077 3780 30432 640 575 29217 68.2 Oct : 575 26077 3780 30432 640 575 29217 68.2 : PORK : 2004 : 532 20529 1099 22160 2181 543 19437 51.3 2005 Proj. Sep : 543 20803 985 22331 2669 545 19117 50.0 Oct : 543 20753 985 22281 2729 545 19007 49.7 2006 Proj. Sep : 545 21145 960 22650 2745 545 19360 50.1 Oct : 545 21145 960 22650 2765 545 19340 50.1 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2004 : 1059 45555 4959 51573 2650 1187 47735 119.0 2005 Proj. Sep : 1187 46291 4981 52459 3317 1133 48009 118.4 Oct : 1187 46050 4987 52224 3377 1136 47711 117.7 2006 Proj. Sep : 1133 47631 4915 53679 3393 1133 49153 120.0 Oct : 1136 47635 4915 53686 3413 1136 49137 120.0 : BROILERS : 2004 : 608 33699 27 34334 4784 713 28837 84.3 2005 Proj. Sep : 713 35032 37 35783 5351 650 29781 86.2 Oct : 713 34835 37 35585 5351 650 29583 85.6 2006 Proj. Sep : 650 36134 36 36820 5475 675 30670 87.9 Oct : 650 35936 36 36622 5475 675 30472 87.3 : TURKEYS : 2004 : 354 5383 5 5741 442 288 5010 17.0 2005 Proj. Sep : 288 5392 8 5688 583 250 4855 16.4 Oct : 288 5407 8 5703 583 250 4870 16.4 2006 Proj. Sep : 250 5462 4 5716 590 300 4826 16.1 Oct : 250 5462 4 5716 590 300 4826 16.1 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2004 : 966 39585 33 40584 5440 1005 34139 102.3 2005 Proj. Sep : 1005 40953 47 42005 6055 903 35047 103.9 Oct : 1005 40765 47 41816 6055 903 34859 103.4 2006 Proj. Sep : 903 42121 44 43068 6205 979 35884 105.3 Oct : 903 41923 44 42870 6205 979 35686 104.7 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2004 : 2025 85140 4992 92157 8090 2192 81875 221.3 2005 Proj. Sep : 2192 87244 5028 94464 9372 2036 83056 222.3 Oct : 2192 86815 5034 94041 9432 2039 82570 221.0 2006 Proj. Sep : 2036 89752 4959 96747 9598 2112 85037 225.4 Oct : 2039 89558 4959 96556 9618 2115 84823 224.8 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-427-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.3 13.7 14.5 14.5 14.0 14.0 Production : 7297.0 7443.0 7497.2 7497.2 7635.0 7635.0 Imports : 13.3 12.7 9.5 9.5 10.0 10.0 Total supply : 7320.6 7469.4 7521.2 7521.2 7659.0 7659.0 : Use : Exports : 146.2 167.5 203.2 199.2 200.0 200.0 Hatching use : 959.4 987.2 1008.3 1004.3 1030.0 1030.0 Ending stocks : 13.7 14.5 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6201.3 6300.2 6295.7 6303.7 6415.0 6415.0 Per capita (number) : 255.7 257.2 254.5 254.8 256.9 256.9 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected Commodity : : :-----------------:----------------- : 2003 : 2004 : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== : Billion pounds Milk : Production : 170.4 170.8 176.3 176.7 180.3 181.3 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 : Fat Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 9.9 8.3 7.2 7.2 7.6 7.4 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 175.2 175.6 179.3 180.2 Imports : 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.9 4.9 Total cml. supply : 184.2 183.3 187.3 187.5 191.8 192.6 : Fat Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.3 7.2 7.6 7.4 7.7 7.5 CCC net removals 1/ : 1.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Commercial use 2/ : 174.7 176.2 179.7 180.1 184.0 185.1 : Skim-solids Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.0 8.0 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 175.2 175.6 179.3 180.2 Imports : 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 Total cml. supply : 182.8 183.0 188.2 188.6 192.0 193.0 : Skim-solids Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.5 8.2 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 CCC net removals 1/ : 8.1 1.3 -1.0 -1.0 0.8 1.0 Commercial use 2/ : 166.2 173.5 181.1 181.5 183.1 184.1 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 1/: Butter : 29 -7 0 0 0 0 Cheese : 41 6 0 0 0 0 Nonfat dry milk : 664 105 -85 -85 70 85 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 2/ Includes commercial exports. WASDE-427-32 U.S. Dairy Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== : Dollars per pound : Product Prices 1/ : Cheese : 1.3031 1.6431 1.475- 1.490- 1.285- 1.305- : 1.495 1.500 1.385 1.395 : Butter : 1.1194 1.8239 1.545- 1.565- 1.320- 1.325- : 1.585 1.585 1.450 1.445 : Nonfat dry milk : 0.8090 0.8405 0.920- 0.930- 0.865- 0.870- : 0.940 0.940 0.935 0.940 : Dry whey : 0.1667 0.2319 0.260- 0.265- 0.220- 0.235- : 0.280 0.285 0.250 0.265 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices 2/ : Class III : 11.42 15.39 13.90- 14.05- 11.75- 12.05- : 14.10 14.15 12.75 12.95 : Class IV : 10.00 13.20 12.75- 12.85- 11.30- 11.40- : 13.05 13.05 12.40 12.40 : All milk 3/ : 12.52 16.05 15.05- 15.20- 13.10- 13.35- : 15.25 15.30 14.10 14.25 : =============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found at http://www.ams.usda.gov/dyfmos/mib/fedordprc_dscrp.htm. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-427-33 Note: Tables on pages 33-35 present a 24-year record of the differences between the October projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the October projection and the final estimate have averaged 7.5 million tons (1.4%) ranging from -26.7 to 9.5 million tons. The October projection has been below the estimate 15 times and above 9 times. Reliability of October Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.4 7.5 -26.7 9.5 15 9 U.S. : 0.3 0.2 -1.2 0.5 10 12 Foreign : 1.6 7.5 -26.8 9.6 15 9 Exports : World : 3.8 4.4 -12.6 3.0 17 6 U.S. : 7.8 2.6 -10.0 5.2 9 15 Foreign : 5.0 4.0 -10.0 3.5 19 5 Domestic use : World : 1.2 6.2 -22.7 11.3 14 10 U.S. : 5.3 1.6 -3.3 3.6 9 15 Foreign : 1.2 6.1 -20.3 11.1 15 9 Ending stocks : World : 6.7 8.8 -32.5 13.5 17 7 U.S. : 10.5 2.4 -4.9 6.8 11 13 Foreign : 6.9 7.4 -29.3 7.5 17 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.4 12.0 -33.7 9.1 18 6 U.S. : 2.1 4.7 -14.5 17.9 16 8 Foreign : 1.6 9.8 -27.7 7.5 19 5 Exports : World : 5.2 5.4 -12.0 13.7 16 8 U.S. : 13.9 7.3 -14.9 15.5 11 13 Foreign : 11.6 6.1 -15.9 8.9 14 10 Domestic use : World : 1.2 10.2 -24.7 20.9 14 10 U.S. : 3.1 5.5 -13.4 17.0 13 11 Foreign : 1.3 8.4 -19.8 20.9 15 9 Ending stocks : World : 9.7 13.8 -39.0 14.9 18 6 U.S. : 18.2 9.2 -29.1 16.3 13 11 Foreign : 12.3 10.0 -29.0 7.2 20 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.0 6.6 -20.9 3.0 19 4 U.S. : 3.2 0.2 -0.4 0.5 13 11 Foreign : 2.0 6.6 -21.0 3.1 19 5 Exports : World : 8.2 1.6 -6.2 1.1 17 7 U.S. : 7.8 0.2 -0.8 0.6 14 8 Foreign : 9.5 1.5 -6.2 1.2 17 7 Domestic use : World : 1.5 5.0 -20.3 2.5 21 3 U.S. : 5.6 0.2 -0.4 0.4 12 11 Foreign : 1.5 5.0 -20.7 2.7 21 3 Ending stocks : World : 10.0 4.4 -14.0 3.2 19 5 U.S. : 17.1 0.2 -0.7 0.8 10 13 Foreign : 10.6 4.5 -14.1 3.0 19 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-427-34 Reliability of October Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.1 4.4 -12.2 14.5 13 11 U.S. : 2.5 1.4 -3.2 3.1 9 15 Foreign : 5.7 4.3 -9.6 15.4 13 11 Exports : World : 6.4 2.5 -9.6 11.0 16 8 U.S. : 8.7 1.9 -5.3 5.8 16 8 Foreign : 17.0 2.4 -8.7 11.4 11 13 Domestic use : World : 2.9 3.9 -7.1 11.2 15 9 U.S. : 3.0 1.2 -3.8 2.5 17 7 Foreign : 3.9 3.6 -6.5 11.0 16 8 Ending stocks : World : 14.5 3.3 -11.4 14.8 14 10 U.S. : 29.2 2.1 -4.2 4.5 5 19 Foreign : 18.4 3.2 -11.6 11.8 15 9 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.2 2.8 -10.6 9.9 14 9 U.S. : 3.7 0.6 -1.7 1.2 16 8 Foreign : 3.7 2.7 -10.4 10.2 13 10 Exports : World : 4.6 1.2 -3.3 1.7 14 10 U.S. : 13.8 0.9 -2.4 1.5 14 10 Foreign : 5.6 1.0 -3.2 1.8 11 13 Mill use : World : 2.3 2.0 -6.7 3.4 12 12 U.S. : 5.0 0.4 -0.9 1.2 14 9 Foreign : 2.5 1.9 -6.6 4.0 12 12 Ending stocks : World : 11.6 4.2 -11.0 12.4 13 10 U.S. : 25.1 1.1 -2.2 2.3 7 17 Foreign : 12.4 4.0 -11.5 11.7 17 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2004/05 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 24 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-427-35 Reliability of United States October Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 2.2 174 -541 618 15 9 Exports : 14.6 263 -575 533 10 14 Domestic use : 3.5 213 -558 530 16 8 Ending stocks : 20.7 334 -1187 629 13 11 : SORGHUM : Production : 3.3 21 -59 71 13 11 Exports : 16.7 39 -115 97 14 10 Domestic use : 9.0 38 -114 78 11 13 Ending stocks : 30.3 38 -142 110 9 14 : BARLEY : Production : 1.2 5 -12 24 8 12 Exports : 27.8 15 -37 38 11 11 Domestic use : 6.0 21 -47 70 10 13 Ending stocks : 10.8 16 -38 56 15 9 : OATS : Production : 0.9 3 -18 16 6 9 Exports : 60.8 1 -4 8 6 8 Domestic use : 3.1 12 -39 36 11 12 Ending stocks : 14.0 17 -46 47 16 8 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.9 927 -2696 1680 16 8 Exports : 10.1 673 -1950 1200 10 13 Domestic use : 2.8 662 -1250 1166 14 10 Ending stocks : 27.5 65 -179 198 10 14 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.9 427 -1473 791 17 7 Exports : 22.2 336 -1125 964 13 11 Domestic use : 2.3 297 -985 450 18 6 Ending stocks : 22.7 347 -883 750 9 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 4.0 974 -827 2461 15 7 Pork : 2.6 464 -1240 1592 13 9 Broilers : 2.1 428 -1337 813 15 7 Turkeys : 2.2 92 -444 233 13 9 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.5 85 -111 188 15 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 1.9 -6.4 6.8 12 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 33 and 34 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2004/05 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 24 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2004 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. -------------- End of File ----------------