WASDE-366 September 12, 2000 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks of wheat are up 14 million bushels from last month as a larger crop more than offsets increased exports. Forecast spring wheat production is up 39 million bushels due to higher yields. Projected exports are 25 million bushels above last month's projection due to reduced competition. The projected 2000/01 price range of $2.25 to $2.75 per bushel is unchanged from last month. Projected global 2000/01 production is up slightly from last month as gains for the United States, Russia, and Eastern Europe more than offset reductions for the EU, Canada, Brazil, and Uzbekistan. Higher projected imports by Brazil and a number of other countries are offset by reductions in expected imports by Russia, China, and several other countries. Lower expected exports for Canada and the EU are offset by increases for the United States, Pakistan, Mexico, and a few other smaller exporters. Global ending stocks are little changed from last month. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks of corn are down 147 million bushels from last month because of lower carryin stocks and higher expected use. Forecast production, at 10.362 billion bushels, is down 7 million bushels from last month. Projected domestic use of corn is up 65 million bushels from last month, as corn is substituted for drought-reduced sorghum production, which is down 62 million bushels. Substitution of corn for sorghum imports by Mexico, expanding global corn imports, and reduced competition are the major reasons for the larger projected U.S. corn exports. The projected 2000/01 price range for corn is up 5 cents on each end to $1.50 to $1.90 per bushel. Projected 2000/01 global coarse grain production is down from last month, led by a reduction in Eastern Europe's corn crop. Projected corn production is also reduced for South Africa, Ukraine, and Canada. Given the lower corn crops, expected exports are reduced for Eastern Europe and Ukraine. Also, expected corn imports are raised for a number of countries. Smaller ending stocks of corn in the United States and Eastern Europe account for most of a reduction in expected 2000/01 coarse grain stocks. RICE: Today's NASS Crop Production report revised estimates of rice production for 1998/99,1999/2000, and 2000/01. The 1998/99 and 1999/2000 U.S. rice crops are estimated at 184.4 million cwt and 206.0 million cwt, respectively. U.S. 2000/01 rice production is forecast at 191.6 million cwt, down 6.6 million cwt from last month and a decline of 14.4 million cwt from the revised 1999/2000 crop. The average yield is estimated at a record 6,212 pounds per acre, up 28 pounds per acre from last month's estimate and 346 pounds per acre above the revised 1999/2000 yield. U.S. planted rice area is estimated at 3.11 million acres, down 120,000 acres from last month. U.S. supplies for 2000/01 are projected at 229.6 million cwt, down 7 percent from last month, due to a substantial decline in beginning stocks and production. According to the August 28 NASS' Rice Stocks report, August 1 rice stocks are estimated at 27.5 million cwt on a rough-equivalent basis, down 10.2 million cwt from last month's forecast. Imports for 1999/2000 and 2000/01 are lowered slightly. The domestic and residual use estimate for 1998/99 is lowered from last month. Domestic and residual use is raised for 1999/2000 and 2000/01. U.S. rice exports for 2000/01 are projected at 80 million cwt, down 8 million cwt from last month. Tighter supplies and higher prices will make U.S. rice less competitive, particularly for milled rice. Ending stocks in 2000/01 are estimated at 26.7 million cwt, down 12.7 million cwt from last month and nearly the same as last year's revised estimate. The season- average price projection is raised $0.75 per cwt on each end to $5.50-$6.50 per cwt. Global 2000/01 rice production and ending stocks are lowered this month while consumption and trade are nearly unchanged. The decrease in global rice production is due primarily to smaller crops projected for the United States, Pakistan, and Spain which are partially offset by increases for Australia and Vietnam. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseeds stocks for 2000/01 are reduced sharply from last month as oilseed yields and production decline. Oilseed production is projected at a record 89.5 million tons, up 7.4 million tons from last year, but down 2.8 million from last month. Soybean production is down 89 million bushels from last month to 2.9 billion bushels, based on a yield of 39.5 bushels per acre. Yield declines are mainly in some Western Corn Belt States and the Delta. Other oilseed production changes this month include declines in peanut and cottonseed production as dry conditions in major producing States cut yields. Projected total oilseed use is off slightly from last month, primarily due to reduced supplies and higher prices. Soybean exports for 2000/01 are reduced 10 million bushels to 1.0 billion bushels, still record large. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2000/01 are projected at $4.35 to $5.15 per bushel, up about 40 cents per bushel from last month, compared with $4.65 per bushel last year. Soybean meal prices are projected higher this month at $155 to $180 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are unchanged at 15 to 18 cents per pound. Global 2000/01 oilseed production is projected at a record 304.8 million metric tons, up 6.1 million tons from 1999/2000, but down 3.2 million tons from last month, due mainly to the reduced U.S. soybean crop. Foreign oilseed production is forecast at 215.3 million tons, off 0.5 million tons from last month, mainly due to reductions in India's soybean crop and in sunflowerseed production in Eastern Europe, where serious drought has reduced yields. World soybean production of 166.6 million tons is off 2.5 million tons from last month. With forecast soybean crush and trade little changed from last month, world soybean stocks are projected to fall sharply to 25.3 million tons, but will remain at a high level relative to use. SUGAR: Projected fiscal year 2000/01 sugar production is decreased 70,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. A decrease of 110,000 tons of beet sugar is due to closure of sugarbeet processing facilities in Tracy and Woodland, California. The facilities, which are scheduled to close for the spring 2001 campaign, are now assumed to remain closed for the balance of the fiscal year. Cane sugar production is increased 40,000 tons, due to higher forecast sugarcane production in Florida more than offsetting lower sugarcane production in Louisiana. Imports not under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) are increased 67,000 tons, including 50,000 tons due to changes in the Refined Sugar Re-Export Program (Foreign Agricultural Service press release 0342-00) and 17,000 tons more sugar imported under the high-tier tariff. The 2000/01 TRQ has not been announced. Production implications from the announced payment-in-kind program will not be projected until additional details are known. For 1999/2000, exports are reduced 25,000 tons, due to slower-than-expected exports to date. Season-ending stocks include 297,000 tons of CCC-owned sugar from purchases and loan forfeitures to date. The stocks-to- use ratio is 18.6 percent, compared with 18.4 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast total meat production in 2000 is little changed but 2001 meat production is projected to be slightly lower than last month. Dry conditions have led to continued high placements of cattle into feedlots, depleting supplies of feeder cattle for placement later this year and into 2001. The beef production forecast is raised slightly in the first half of 2001 but is reduced for the year as lower second-half production is expected. Forecast broiler production in 2001 is reduced about 1 percent from last month as lower returns are expected to trim the rise in broiler production. Pork production is unchanged. The September 22 release of USDA's Hogs and Pigs report will provide an opportunity to reevaluate the production forecast. Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, and broilers are reduced in 2000 and 2001 due to large supplies of meat. Forecast milk production is increased slightly in 1999/2000 and 2000/01 due to higher projected cow numbers. Milk per cow is unchanged. The forecast for the Class III price is slightly higher due to a firmer cheese price outlook compared with last month. COTTON: U.S. 2000/01 cotton production, exports, and stocks are reduced this month. The crop production estimate is down 4.4 percent from August to 18.3 million bales; the reduction is due to recent extreme heat and drought in the Delta and Southwest regions. Lower beginning stocks for 2000/01 reflect Bureau of the Census data which indicate higher mill use and lower ending stocks in 1999/2000 than estimated previously. Domestic mill use for 2000/01 is unchanged, but exports are reduced 300,000 bales as a result of the lower supply. Estimated ending stocks are cut 700,000 bales to 4.2 million bales. This month's 2000/01 projections also feature lower world production and ending stocks. Reductions in the crop estimates for the United States and several countries in West Africa more than offset higher production in Australia and Pakistan. Consumption and imports are virtually unchanged, and reductions in exports for the United States and West African countries are largely balanced by increases for Australia, Pakistan, and others. A 2-percent reduction in world stocks is attributable mainly to the decrease in the United States. World stocks are projected to fall to 34.4 million bales, the lowest level since 1994/95. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: KEITH J. COLLINS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on October 12, 2000. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2001: Jan. 11, Feb. 8, Mar. 8, Apr. 10, May 10, June 12, July 11, Aug. 10, Sep. 12, Oct.12, Nov. 9, Dec. 11. USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum 2001 will take place on February 22 - 23, 2001. See page 14 for details. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. 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WASDE-366-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1998/99 : 1,872.29 2,213.67 257.22 1,846.09 367.58 1999/00 (Est.) : 1,865.89 2,233.48 266.86 1,875.92 357.56 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 1,868.90 2,226.32 265.71 1,882.56 343.76 September : 1,862.34 2,219.90 266.46 1,883.01 336.89 Wheat : 1998/99 : 588.56 727.28 122.91 590.38 136.90 1999/00 (Est.) : 585.93 722.83 128.72 595.71 127.11 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 581.30 707.75 127.05 594.42 113.33 September : 583.15 710.26 127.46 596.67 113.60 Coarse grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 889.79 1,037.67 107.43 867.01 170.66 1999/00 (Est.) : 877.07 1,047.72 114.83 880.41 167.31 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 889.51 1,056.94 113.64 887.11 169.83 September : 881.73 1,049.04 114.09 885.10 163.94 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 393.94 448.72 26.89 388.69 60.03 1999/00 (Est.) : 402.90 462.93 23.31 399.79 63.13 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 398.09 461.63 25.02 401.04 60.60 September : 397.46 460.60 24.91 401.24 59.35 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1998/99 : 346.60 411.49 86.99 246.69 77.81 1999/00 (Est.) : 332.48 415.97 88.38 250.69 76.90 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 355.05 438.71 93.47 251.86 93.39 September : 354.21 436.89 94.77 252.62 89.50 Wheat : 1998/99 : 69.33 91.79 28.36 37.69 25.74 1999/00 (Est.) : 62.66 90.98 29.65 35.47 25.86 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 61.59 90.17 29.94 34.05 26.19 September : 62.66 91.24 30.62 34.05 26.57 Coarse grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 271.47 312.69 55.95 205.37 51.37 1999/00 (Est.) : 263.38 317.52 55.94 211.40 50.18 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 287.21 340.76 60.76 214.05 65.95 September : 285.51 338.42 61.63 214.70 62.09 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 5.80 7.01 2.68 3.63 0.69 1999/00 (Est.) : 6.45 7.47 2.79 3.82 0.86 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 6.25 7.78 2.77 3.76 1.25 September : 6.04 7.24 2.52 3.87 0.84 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-366-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 1,525.69 1,802.18 170.23 1,599.40 289.77 1999/00 (Est.) : 1,533.41 1,817.51 178.48 1,625.23 280.66 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 1,513.85 1,787.60 172.24 1,630.70 250.37 September : 1,508.14 1,783.01 171.69 1,630.39 247.39 Wheat : 1998/99 : 519.23 635.49 94.54 552.70 111.16 1999/00 (Est.) : 523.27 631.85 99.07 560.25 101.26 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 519.71 617.58 97.11 560.37 87.14 September : 520.50 619.03 96.84 562.62 87.03 Coarse grains 5/ : 1998/99 : 618.32 724.97 51.49 661.64 119.29 1999/00 (Est.) : 613.69 730.20 58.89 669.01 117.13 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 602.29 716.18 52.88 673.06 103.88 September : 596.22 710.62 52.46 670.40 101.85 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 388.14 441.71 24.20 385.06 59.33 1999/00 (Est.) : 396.45 455.46 20.52 395.97 62.27 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 391.85 453.85 22.24 397.27 59.35 September : 391.42 453.36 22.39 397.37 58.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1998/99 : 84.72 128.21 23.69 85.13 44.78 1999/00 (Est.) : 86.85 131.62 27.28 91.45 39.92 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 87.31 127.45 27.64 92.47 35.15 September : 86.75 126.67 27.45 92.57 34.35 : United States 1998/99 : 13.92 18.25 4.34 10.40 3.94 1999/00 (Est.) : 16.97 21.01 6.80 10.24 3.95 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 19.16 23.31 8.20 10.20 4.90 September : 18.32 22.34 7.90 10.20 4.20 : Foreign 3/ 1998/99 : 70.81 109.96 19.34 74.73 40.84 1999/00 (Est.) : 69.88 110.62 20.48 81.22 35.97 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 68.15 104.14 19.44 82.27 30.25 September : 68.43 104.33 19.55 82.37 30.15 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-366-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 294.13 322.50 54.60 240.82 31.41 1999/00 (Est.) : 298.63 330.04 63.79 248.66 28.46 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 307.99 337.02 60.56 250.62 32.06 September : 304.77 333.23 60.47 250.34 28.93 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 164.67 170.21 53.94 163.60 6.36 1999/00 (Est.) : 169.74 176.10 54.51 169.80 6.35 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 171.82 178.22 55.09 172.14 5.82 September : 171.82 178.17 55.09 172.26 5.76 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 80.69 87.36 31.44 78.92 7.49 1999/00 (Est.) : 84.87 92.36 32.23 82.46 8.12 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 86.26 94.47 32.66 85.94 7.72 September : 86.08 94.21 32.48 86.00 7.77 : : United States Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 84.36 91.49 22.72 47.81 10.78 1999/00 (Est.) : 82.02 93.41 27.51 47.97 8.16 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 92.21 101.22 28.39 49.02 13.78 September : 89.46 98.04 28.11 49.11 10.92 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 36.81 38.34 6.71 31.30 0.33 1999/00 (Est.) : 36.83 38.38 6.66 31.43 0.29 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 37.58 39.13 6.95 31.86 0.31 September : 37.74 39.24 6.93 32.01 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 9.44 11.86 1.64 9.22 1.00 1999/00 (Est.) : 9.40 11.91 1.11 9.61 1.20 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 9.58 12.50 1.30 9.99 1.21 September : 9.59 12.52 1.30 9.98 1.24 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 209.77 231.01 31.88 193.01 20.63 1999/00 (Est.) : 216.61 236.62 36.28 200.69 20.30 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 215.78 235.80 32.18 201.60 18.28 September : 215.31 235.20 32.36 201.24 18.02 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 127.86 131.86 47.22 132.30 6.02 1999/00 (Est.) : 132.91 137.72 47.86 138.38 6.06 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 134.24 139.10 48.14 140.28 5.51 September : 134.08 138.94 48.16 140.25 5.47 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 71.25 75.50 29.80 69.70 6.49 1999/00 (Est.) : 75.47 80.44 31.12 72.85 6.93 2000/01 (Proj.) : August : 76.68 81.97 31.36 75.95 6.50 September : 76.49 81.68 31.17 76.02 6.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-366-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 65.8 62.8 62.9 62.9 Harvested : 59.0 53.9 54.4 54.4 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 43.2 42.7 41.6 42.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 722 946 950 950 Production : 2,547 2,302 2,263 2,302 Imports : 103 95 100 100 Supply, total : 3,373 3,343 3,313 3,352 Food : 910 925 940 940 Seed : 81 92 86 86 Feed and residual : 394 286 225 225 Domestic, total : 1,385 1,303 1,251 1,251 Exports : 1,042 1,090 1,100 1,125 Use, total : 2,427 2,393 2,351 2,376 Ending stocks : 946 950 962 976 CCC inventory : 128 104 110 Free stocks : 818 846 866 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.65 2.48 2.25- 2.75 2.25- 2.75 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1999/00 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 435 233 136 87 55 946 Production : 1,055 448 453 247 99 2,302 Supply, total 3/ : 1,490 741 589 340 182 3,343 Domestic use : 548 293 284 89 89 1,303 Exports : 486 230 170 160 44 1,090 Use, total : 1,034 523 454 249 133 2,393 Ending stocks, total : 456 218 135 91 50 950 : 2000/01 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 456 218 135 91 50 950 Production : 883 535 471 295 118 2,302 Supply, total 3/ : 1,341 815 606 393 197 3,352 Domestic use : 514 282 268 96 91 1,251 Exports : 470 235 200 175 45 1,125 Use, total : 984 517 468 271 136 2,376 Ending stocks, total : September : 357 298 138 122 61 976 August : 357 267 148 127 64 962 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-366-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 101.0 96.6 98.8 98.8 Harvested : 88.9 86.3 89.1 89.1 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.05 3.22 3.20 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 38.1 51.3 50.8 50.1 Production : 271.2 263.1 287.0 285.3 Imports : 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 Supply, total : 312.3 317.1 340.4 338.1 Feed and residual : 152.3 156.1 157.8 158.2 Food, seed & industrial : 52.7 54.9 55.9 56.2 Domestic, total : 205.0 211.0 213.7 214.4 Exports : 55.9 55.9 60.8 61.6 Use, total : 261.0 267.0 274.5 276.0 Ending stocks, total : 51.3 50.1 65.9 62.0 CCC inventory : 0.3 0.4 0.4 Free stocks : 51.0 49.7 61.6 Outstanding loans : 10.3 10.2 12.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 80.2 77.4 79.6 79.6 Harvested : 72.6 70.5 73.1 73.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 134.4 133.8 141.9 141.8 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,308 1,787 1,794 1,769 Production : 9,759 9,437 10,369 10,362 Imports : 19 15 10 10 Supply, total : 11,085 11,239 12,174 12,142 Feed and residual : 5,471 5,625 5,700 5,750 Food, seed & industrial : 1,846 1,920 1,960 1,975 Domestic, total : 7,318 7,545 7,660 7,725 Exports : 1,981 1,925 2,125 2,175 Use, total : 9,298 9,470 9,785 9,900 Ending stocks, total : 1,787 1,769 2,389 2,242 CCC inventory : 12 15 15 Free stocks : 1,775 1,754 2,227 Outstanding loans : 391 392 500 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 1.80 1.45- 1.85 1.50- 1.90 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-366-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.3 9.0 9.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.5 8.3 8.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.3 69.7 69.5 62.1 Beginning stocks : 49 65 65 65 Production : 520 595 578 516 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 569 660 643 581 Feed and residual : 262 290 275 245 Food, seed & industrial : 45 55 55 50 Total domestic : 307 345 330 295 Exports : 197 250 240 220 Use, total : 504 595 570 515 Ending stocks, total : 65 65 73 66 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.66 1.55 1.20- 1.60 1.30- 1.70 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 5.2 5.7 5.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.9 4.8 5.2 5.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.0 59.2 58.8 59.2 Beginning stocks : 119 142 112 112 Production : 352 282 308 310 Imports : 30 28 30 30 Supply, total : 501 451 450 452 Feed and residual : 161 137 145 140 Food, seed & industrial : 170 172 172 172 Total domestic : 331 309 317 312 Exports : 28 30 30 35 Use, total : 360 339 347 347 Ending stocks, total : 142 112 103 105 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.98 2.13 1.65- 2.05 1.80- 2.20 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.2 59.6 62.3 62.3 Beginning stocks : 74 81 76 76 Production : 166 146 153 153 Imports : 108 99 100 100 Supply, total : 348 326 329 329 Feed and residual : 196 180 180 180 Food, seed & industrial : 69 68 68 68 Total domestic : 265 249 248 248 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 266 250 250 250 Ending stocks, total : 81 76 79 79 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.12 0.95- 1.35 0.95- 1.35 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-366-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.29 3.53 3.23 3.11 Harvested : 3.26 3.51 3.21 3.09 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,663 5,866 6,184 6,212 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.9 22.1 37.7 27.5 Production : 184.4 206.0 198.2 191.6 Imports : 10.5 10.3 11.0 10.5 Supply, total : 222.9 238.4 246.9 229.6 Domestic & residual 3/ : 115.5 121.8 119.4 122.9 Exports, total 4/ : 85.3 89.0 88.0 80.0 Rough : 25.8 26.5 26.0 25.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 59.6 62.5 62.0 55.0 Use, total : 200.8 210.8 207.4 202.9 Ending stocks : 22.1 27.5 39.5 26.7 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.3 69.0 69.5 69.5 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.89 6.11 4.75- 5.75 5.50- 6.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.57 2.72 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,426 5,587 Beginning stocks : 14.5 14.1 30.5 15.6 Production : 139.3 151.9 136.8 130.1 Supply, total 7/ : 162.4 175.0 177.1 155.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 77.6 88.3 79.9 80.0 Exports 8/ : 70.7 71.0 68.0 62.0 Use, total : 148.3 159.3 147.9 142.0 Ending stocks : 14.1 15.6 29.2 13.0 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.69 0.79 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,548 6,822 Beginning stocks : 12.3 6.8 6.0 10.4 Production : 45.1 54.2 61.4 61.6 Supply, total 7/ : 59.4 61.9 68.5 73.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 37.9 33.5 39.5 42.9 Exports 8/ : 14.6 18.0 20.0 18.0 Use, total : 52.5 51.5 59.5 60.9 Ending stocks : 6.8 10.4 9.0 12.3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1998/99-1.1; 1999/00-1.2 2000/01-1.4. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantitiy of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-366-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 72.0 73.8 74.5 * 74.5 * Harvested : 70.4 72.5 73.5 * 73.5 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.9 36.5 40.7 39.5 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 200 348 280 265 Production : 2,741 2,643 2,989 2,900 Imports : 3 3 5 3 Supply, total : 2,944 2,994 3,273 3,167 Crushings : 1,590 1,580 1,625 1,630 Exports : 805 980 1,010 1,000 Seed : 88 90 90 90 Residual : 113 80 84 82 Use, total : 2,595 2,730 2,808 2,802 Ending stocks : 348 265 465 365 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.93 4.65 3.90- 4.80 4.35 - 5.15 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,382 1,520 1,875 1,880 Production : 18,081 17,855 _3/ 18,445 18,500 Imports : 82 80 90 90 Supply, total : 19,546 19,455 20,410 20,470 Domestic : 15,655 16,200 16,650 16,650 Exports : 2,371 1,375 1,800 1,800 Use, total : 18,027 17,575 18,450 18,450 Ending stocks : 1,520 1,880 1,960 2,020 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 19.90 15.70 15.00- 15.00- : 18.00 18.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 218 330 325 275 Production : 37,792 37,595 _3/ 38,535 38,735 Imports : 99 50 65 65 Supply, total : 38,109 37,975 38,925 39,075 Domestic : 30,657 30,600 31,250 31,400 Exports : 7,122 7,100 7,400 7,400 Use, total : 37,779 37,700 38,650 38,800 Ending stocks : 330 275 275 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 138.50 167.00 140.00- 155.00- : 165.00 180.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,575 million bushels. *Planted and harvested based on June Acreage report. WASDE-366-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :====================== : : Estimate : August September ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,679 1,639 1,909 1,934 Production 2/3/ : 8,374 9,035 8,973 8,903 Beet sugar : 4,423 4,950 4,780 4,670 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,951 4,085 4,193 4,233 Imports 2/ : 1,824 1,635 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 1,256 1,112 NA NA Other 6/ : 568 523 448 515 Total supply : 11,877 12,309 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 230 125 175 175 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,066 10,250 10,385 10,385 Domestic food use : 9,872 10,115 10,225 10,225 Other 8/ : 194 135 160 160 Miscellaneous 9/ : (58) 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,238 10,375 10,560 10,560 Ending stocks 2/ 10/ : 1,639 1,934 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 16.0 18.6 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2000/01 are based on September Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1999/2000 (projected 2000/01): FL 1,976 (2,100); HI 320 (300); LA 1,680 (1,650); TX 105 (160); PR 4 (23). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1999/2000 available TRQ includes projected shortfall of 60,000 tons. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. 10/ For 1999/2000, includes 297,000 tons of sugar held by the Commodity Credit Corportation. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-366-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.39 14.87 15.53 15.53 Harvested : 10.68 13.42 14.19 14.12 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 625 607 648 622 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.89 3.94 4.10 3.95 Production : 13.92 16.97 19.16 18.32 Imports : 0.44 0.10 0.05 0.08 Supply, total : 18.25 21.01 23.31 22.34 Domestic use : 10.40 10.24 10.20 10.20 Exports : 4.34 6.80 8.20 7.90 Use, total : 14.75 17.04 18.40 18.10 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.44 0.02 0.01 0.04 Ending stocks : 3.94 3.95 4.90 4.20 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 60.2 45.0 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2000/01 is 23.3 percent. WASDE-366-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 138.73 588.56 121.43 107.19 590.38 122.91 136.90 United States : 19.66 69.33 2.80 10.73 37.69 28.36 25.74 Total foreign : 119.06 519.23 118.62 96.46 552.70 94.54 111.16 Major exporters 4/ : 22.26 161.67 25.41 53.44 106.05 75.03 28.26 Argentina : 0.42 12.40 0.03 0.25 4.15 8.40 0.30 Australia : 1.35 22.11 0.06 2.79 5.11 16.00 2.40 Canada : 5.99 24.08 0.15 4.10 7.98 14.71 7.54 EU-15 : 14.50 103.09 25.17 46.31 88.81 35.93 18.02 Major importers 5/ : 50.49 178.61 36.17 18.76 212.08 5.71 47.48 Brazil : 0.55 2.19 7.30 0.20 9.26 0.01 0.78 China : 33.46 109.73 0.83 5.00 115.57 0.54 27.90 East. Europe : 7.64 33.23 2.13 11.95 31.50 4.51 7.00 N. Africa : 4.41 14.20 16.82 0.31 28.34 0.23 6.85 Pakistan : 3.21 18.69 3.13 0.40 21.28 0.00 3.75 Selected other : India : 10.08 66.35 1.99 0.35 67.34 0.00 11.08 FSU-12 6/ : 17.24 56.13 5.42 16.57 64.40 8.75 5.65 Russia : 8.00 27.00 2.49 11.15 34.84 1.65 1.00 Kazakstan : 3.00 4.70 0.02 1.10 4.62 2.30 0.80 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 136.90 585.93 127.63 104.99 595.71 128.72 127.11 United States : 25.74 62.66 2.57 7.79 35.47 29.65 25.86 Total foreign : 111.16 523.27 125.06 97.20 560.25 99.07 101.26 Major exporters 4/ : 28.26 162.84 25.75 54.95 107.08 83.73 26.04 Argentina : 0.30 15.00 0.03 0.30 4.20 10.80 0.33 Australia : 2.40 24.10 0.05 3.30 5.63 17.50 3.43 Canada : 7.54 26.85 0.18 4.20 8.10 19.20 7.26 EU-15 : 18.02 96.89 25.50 47.15 89.15 36.23 15.03 Major importers 5/ : 47.48 175.17 33.82 17.86 213.43 4.64 38.40 Brazil : 0.78 2.50 7.20 0.20 9.53 0.00 0.95 China : 27.90 113.88 1.01 5.00 117.00 0.54 25.25 East. Europe : 7.00 28.65 2.15 11.05 30.47 3.53 3.80 N. Africa : 6.85 11.71 15.50 0.31 28.89 0.17 5.00 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.00 0.40 21.40 0.00 2.20 Selected other : India : 11.08 70.78 1.70 0.35 69.25 0.20 14.11 FSU-12 6/ : 5.65 65.19 7.79 16.96 65.31 6.81 6.52 Russia : 1.00 31.00 4.80 11.30 35.50 0.30 1.00 Kazakstan : 0.80 11.20 0.02 1.50 5.00 4.50 2.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-366-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 126.45 581.30 126.01 101.77 594.42 127.05 113.33 September : 127.11 583.15 125.93 103.01 596.67 127.46 113.60 United States : August : 25.86 61.59 2.72 6.12 34.05 29.94 26.19 September : 25.86 62.66 2.72 6.12 34.05 30.62 26.57 Total foreign : August : 100.59 519.71 123.29 95.65 560.37 97.11 87.14 September : 101.26 520.50 123.21 96.89 562.62 96.84 87.03 Major exporters 4/ : August : 26.20 169.95 24.90 57.70 110.98 85.50 24.57 September : 26.04 168.74 24.80 57.90 110.93 83.90 24.76 Argentina Aug : 0.33 15.50 0.03 0.45 4.75 10.50 0.60 Sep : 0.33 15.50 0.03 0.45 4.75 10.50 0.60 Australia Aug : 3.43 23.00 0.05 3.40 5.75 18.00 2.73 Sep : 3.43 23.00 0.05 3.40 5.75 18.00 2.73 Canada Aug : 7.42 26.50 0.15 4.50 8.45 19.50 6.12 Sep : 7.26 26.00 0.15 4.30 8.20 18.50 6.71 EU-15 Aug : 15.03 104.95 24.68 49.35 92.03 37.50 15.13 Sep : 15.03 104.24 24.58 49.75 92.23 36.90 14.73 Major importers 5/ : August : 38.08 162.68 36.83 14.66 209.46 3.50 24.63 September : 38.40 162.57 36.88 14.16 209.66 3.85 24.35 Brazil Aug : 0.55 2.30 7.20 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.55 Sep : 0.95 1.80 7.70 0.20 9.65 0.00 0.80 China Aug : 25.28 102.00 3.50 2.00 114.00 0.50 16.28 Sep : 25.25 102.00 3.00 2.00 114.00 0.50 15.75 East. Europe Aug : 4.15 27.50 2.68 10.75 29.10 2.33 2.90 Sep : 3.80 27.90 2.73 10.25 29.40 2.28 2.75 N. Africa Aug : 5.00 9.28 17.50 0.31 28.91 0.17 2.70 Sep : 5.00 9.28 17.50 0.31 28.91 0.17 2.70 Pakistan Aug : 2.20 21.00 0.05 0.50 21.75 0.00 1.50 Sep : 2.20 21.00 0.05 0.50 21.50 0.50 1.25 Selected other : India Aug : 14.11 74.30 0.05 0.50 71.50 0.20 16.76 Sep : 14.11 74.30 0.05 0.50 71.50 0.50 16.46 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 6.42 63.38 5.69 16.18 63.94 4.60 6.95 Sep : 6.52 65.51 5.49 17.76 65.82 4.60 7.10 Russia Aug : 1.00 34.00 3.00 11.10 35.30 0.50 2.20 Sep : 1.00 36.50 2.50 12.70 37.00 0.50 2.50 Kazakstan Aug : 2.52 8.00 0.02 1.50 5.00 3.50 2.03 Sep : 2.52 8.00 0.02 1.50 5.00 3.50 2.03 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-366-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 147.88 889.79 108.37 570.58 867.01 107.43 170.66 United States : 38.15 271.47 3.07 152.38 205.37 55.95 51.37 Total foreign : 109.72 618.32 105.30 418.20 661.64 51.49 119.29 Major exporters 4/ : 8.66 62.04 1.59 35.23 46.52 17.41 8.36 Argentina : 2.44 17.75 0.01 8.05 10.03 8.58 1.59 Australia : 1.14 9.60 0.02 3.86 5.12 4.98 0.66 Canada : 4.27 26.57 0.83 19.93 23.37 3.21 5.09 Major importers 5/ : 41.49 200.04 65.41 173.22 237.71 26.59 42.63 EU-15 : 21.99 105.55 17.34 73.16 97.33 23.23 24.31 East. Europe : 10.21 51.24 1.64 39.95 51.61 3.09 8.39 Japan : 2.64 0.15 20.92 16.55 21.27 0.00 2.44 Mexico : 2.85 24.70 9.10 17.47 33.50 0.02 3.13 Southeast Asia : 0.95 15.94 3.12 13.33 18.06 0.25 1.70 South Korea : 0.50 0.49 7.83 6.10 8.33 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 37.08 144.19 2.62 90.40 127.90 3.36 52.63 FSU-12 6/ : 12.32 37.97 1.51 26.45 45.04 2.30 4.45 Russia : 7.42 18.95 1.19 13.62 25.64 0.14 1.78 Ukraine : 3.31 10.35 0.04 6.18 10.58 1.62 1.50 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 170.66 877.07 110.02 579.49 880.41 114.83 167.31 United States : 51.37 263.38 2.77 156.27 211.40 55.94 50.18 Total foreign : 119.29 613.69 107.25 423.22 669.01 58.89 117.13 Major exporters 4/ : 8.36 65.94 1.31 35.77 48.23 18.09 9.30 Argentina : 1.59 20.51 0.01 8.49 10.73 9.60 1.78 Australia : 0.66 8.01 0.02 3.54 4.65 3.42 0.62 Canada : 5.09 26.77 0.75 19.35 23.98 3.58 5.05 Major importers 5/ : 42.63 200.96 66.14 175.99 240.65 29.21 39.87 EU-15 : 24.31 103.05 16.16 72.62 96.60 25.90 21.02 East. Europe : 8.39 54.60 1.77 40.60 52.74 3.20 8.81 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.44 16.22 20.78 0.00 2.31 Mexico : 3.13 25.95 9.14 18.89 34.89 0.02 3.31 Southeast Asia : 1.70 14.76 3.65 13.65 18.58 0.10 1.43 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 9.05 6.95 9.21 0.00 0.81 Selected other : China : 52.63 138.63 2.55 92.60 130.16 9.03 54.62 FSU-12 6/ : 4.45 40.35 2.33 26.60 41.82 1.77 3.54 Russia : 1.78 21.80 1.91 14.62 24.61 0.15 0.72 Ukraine : 1.50 9.95 0.06 6.17 9.37 0.85 1.28 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-366-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 167.43 889.51 110.17 586.77 887.11 113.64 169.83 September : 167.31 881.73 110.59 584.21 885.10 114.09 163.94 United States : August : 50.82 287.21 2.73 157.90 214.05 60.76 65.95 September : 50.18 285.51 2.73 158.29 214.70 61.63 62.09 Total foreign : August : 116.61 602.29 107.44 428.88 673.06 52.88 103.88 September : 117.13 596.22 107.86 425.91 670.40 52.46 101.85 Major exporters 4/ : August : 8.78 66.51 1.00 36.81 48.64 18.89 8.77 September : 9.30 65.92 1.30 36.58 48.85 18.89 8.79 Argentina Aug : 1.78 20.76 0.01 8.65 10.84 9.85 1.86 Sep : 1.78 20.82 0.01 8.71 10.90 9.85 1.86 Australia Aug : 0.61 8.56 0.02 3.55 4.53 3.96 0.68 Sep : 0.62 9.21 0.02 3.70 4.68 4.26 0.90 Canada Aug : 4.95 27.27 0.75 20.22 24.36 4.08 4.53 Sep : 5.05 26.48 1.05 19.79 24.37 3.78 4.43 Major importers 5/ : August : 39.57 195.02 66.78 174.78 239.14 27.21 35.02 September : 39.87 190.40 66.00 171.64 236.02 26.98 33.27 EU-15 Aug : 21.02 108.07 15.92 75.52 99.80 25.87 19.34 Sep : 21.02 107.73 15.92 75.30 99.59 26.07 19.01 East. Europe Aug : 8.81 43.53 2.10 34.98 47.04 1.23 6.17 Sep : 8.81 39.25 2.12 32.56 44.62 0.80 4.75 Japan Aug : 2.31 0.16 20.19 16.07 20.48 0.00 2.18 Sep : 2.31 0.16 19.99 15.87 20.28 0.00 2.18 Mexico Aug : 3.31 26.00 9.53 19.44 35.23 0.02 3.60 Sep : 3.31 26.00 9.53 19.44 35.23 0.02 3.60 Southeast Asia Aug : 1.43 14.86 4.05 14.32 19.15 0.10 1.08 Sep : 1.43 14.86 3.75 14.02 18.85 0.10 1.08 South Korea Aug : 0.51 0.49 8.95 7.15 9.36 0.00 0.60 Sep : 0.81 0.49 8.65 7.15 9.36 0.00 0.60 Selected other : China Aug : 54.62 124.60 2.65 95.07 132.35 4.03 45.48 Sep : 54.62 124.60 2.65 95.07 132.35 4.03 45.48 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 3.89 45.53 0.85 27.94 43.62 1.61 5.03 Sep : 3.54 44.66 0.85 27.22 42.90 1.51 4.63 Russia Aug : 0.72 25.75 0.53 14.70 24.68 0.30 2.02 Sep : 0.72 25.75 0.53 14.70 24.68 0.30 2.02 Ukraine Aug : 1.28 10.70 0.11 6.78 10.05 0.80 1.24 Sep : 1.28 10.20 0.11 6.58 9.85 0.70 1.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-366-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 98.09 605.51 75.55 401.76 580.42 75.51 123.18 United States : 33.22 247.88 0.48 138.98 185.88 50.31 45.39 Total foreign : 64.87 357.63 75.08 262.78 394.54 25.20 77.79 Major exporters 4/ : 2.36 21.20 0.57 8.00 13.86 8.53 1.73 Argentina : 1.54 13.50 0.00 4.85 6.45 7.88 0.71 South Africa : 0.82 7.70 0.57 3.15 7.41 0.65 1.02 Major importers 5/ : 17.96 94.62 50.21 94.50 134.42 11.68 16.69 EU-15 : 4.47 35.30 11.77 30.12 38.95 8.93 3.66 Japan : 1.45 0.00 16.34 12.10 16.44 0.00 1.36 Mexico : 1.50 17.79 5.62 7.51 23.04 0.02 1.85 Southeast Asia : 0.95 15.74 3.12 13.14 17.85 0.25 1.70 South Korea : 0.50 0.08 7.52 5.92 7.62 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 35.98 132.95 0.26 87.00 114.30 3.34 51.55 FSU-12 6/ : 2.73 5.35 0.62 4.31 6.91 0.43 1.35 Russia : 0.55 0.80 0.52 1.05 1.71 0.01 0.15 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 123.18 605.33 76.73 417.73 600.61 80.27 127.90 United States : 45.39 239.72 0.38 142.88 191.65 48.90 44.94 Total foreign : 77.79 365.61 76.35 274.85 408.96 31.37 82.96 Major exporters 4/ : 1.73 26.20 0.35 9.10 15.02 10.50 2.76 Argentina : 0.71 16.00 0.00 5.00 6.80 9.00 0.91 South Africa : 1.02 10.20 0.35 4.10 8.22 1.50 1.85 Major importers 5/ : 16.69 101.73 49.84 99.52 139.23 10.85 18.18 EU-15 : 3.66 37.22 10.70 31.41 39.91 7.96 3.70 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.25 12.15 16.35 0.00 1.26 Mexico : 1.85 19.00 4.60 7.65 23.10 0.02 2.34 Southeast Asia : 1.70 14.56 3.65 13.46 18.38 0.10 1.43 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.50 6.50 8.25 0.00 0.81 Selected other : China : 51.55 128.08 0.15 90.00 116.95 9.00 53.83 FSU-12 6/ : 1.35 4.95 0.81 4.55 6.20 0.15 0.76 Russia : 0.15 1.10 0.70 1.15 1.85 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-366-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 128.04 612.97 76.30 425.65 607.95 78.22 133.05 September : 127.90 607.17 77.30 425.27 607.42 78.96 127.65 United States : August : 45.58 263.39 0.25 144.79 194.57 53.98 60.68 September : 44.94 263.22 0.25 146.06 196.22 55.25 56.94 Total foreign : August : 82.46 349.57 76.05 280.86 413.38 24.24 72.38 September : 82.96 343.95 77.05 279.21 411.20 23.72 70.71 Major exporters 4/ : August : 2.36 26.00 0.05 9.50 15.50 10.20 2.71 September : 2.76 25.50 0.05 9.50 15.50 10.20 2.61 Argentina Aug : 0.91 16.50 0.00 5.40 7.20 9.20 1.01 Sep : 0.91 16.50 0.00 5.40 7.20 9.20 1.01 South Africa Aug : 1.45 9.50 0.05 4.10 8.30 1.00 1.70 Sep : 1.85 9.00 0.05 4.10 8.30 1.00 1.60 Major importers 5/ : August : 17.88 96.20 50.42 99.40 139.23 9.11 16.16 September : 18.18 92.23 50.32 97.43 137.25 8.68 14.79 EU-15 Aug : 3.70 38.44 10.68 31.93 40.81 7.92 4.09 Sep : 3.70 38.54 10.68 31.93 40.81 7.92 4.19 Japan Aug : 1.26 0.00 16.10 12.10 16.15 0.00 1.21 Sep : 1.26 0.00 16.10 12.10 16.15 0.00 1.21 Mexico Aug : 2.34 19.00 5.00 8.40 23.60 0.02 2.72 Sep : 2.34 19.00 5.50 8.90 24.10 0.02 2.72 Southeast Asia Aug : 1.43 14.66 4.05 14.13 18.95 0.10 1.08 Sep : 1.43 14.66 3.75 13.83 18.65 0.10 1.08 South Korea Aug : 0.51 0.09 8.50 6.80 8.50 0.00 0.60 Sep : 0.81 0.09 8.20 6.80 8.50 0.00 0.60 Selected other : China Aug : 53.83 115.00 0.15 93.00 120.00 4.00 44.98 Sep : 53.83 115.00 0.15 93.00 120.00 4.00 44.98 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 1.10 6.68 0.26 5.04 6.65 0.25 1.15 Sep : 0.76 5.83 0.26 4.34 5.95 0.15 0.75 Russia Aug : 0.10 2.00 0.20 1.40 2.10 0.00 0.20 Sep : 0.10 2.00 0.20 1.40 2.10 0.00 0.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-366-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 3/ : 54.79 393.94 25.92 388.69 26.89 60.03 United States : 0.88 5.80 0.33 3.63 2.68 0.69 Total foreign : 53.91 388.14 25.58 385.06 24.20 59.33 Major exporters 4/ : 11.67 125.96 0.07 108.27 16.42 13.01 Thailand : 1.05 15.18 0.00 8.90 6.68 0.65 Vietnam : 0.00 20.11 0.06 15.61 4.56 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 7.03 52.71 12.61 61.84 1.38 9.12 Indonesia : 3.53 32.10 3.90 35.50 0.00 4.03 Selected other : China : 26.72 139.10 0.17 136.00 2.71 27.29 Japan : 3.05 8.15 0.65 9.10 0.20 2.55 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 3/ : 60.03 402.90 21.09 399.79 23.31 63.13 United States : 0.69 6.45 0.33 3.82 2.79 0.86 Total foreign : 59.33 396.45 20.77 395.97 20.52 62.27 Major exporters 4/ : 13.01 130.01 0.09 112.54 12.25 18.32 Thailand : 0.65 15.85 0.00 9.00 5.80 1.70 Vietnam : 0.00 20.75 0.04 17.39 3.40 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 9.12 53.60 9.57 62.94 1.36 7.98 Indonesia : 4.03 32.10 2.00 35.70 0.00 2.43 Selected other : China : 27.29 138.94 0.20 137.00 3.00 26.43 Japan : 2.55 8.35 0.72 9.45 0.40 1.77 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 63.54 398.09 24.00 401.04 25.02 60.60 September : 63.13 397.46 24.01 401.24 24.91 59.35 United States : August : 1.18 6.25 0.35 3.76 2.77 1.25 September : 0.86 6.04 0.33 3.87 2.52 0.84 Total foreign : August : 62.36 391.85 23.65 397.27 22.24 59.35 September : 62.27 391.42 23.68 397.37 22.39 58.51 Major exporters 4/ : August : 18.01 129.85 0.09 113.24 14.30 20.41 September : 18.32 129.40 0.09 113.34 14.10 20.37 Thailand Aug : 1.50 15.85 0.00 9.10 6.60 1.65 Sep : 1.70 15.85 0.00 9.10 6.60 1.85 Vietnam Aug : 0.00 20.60 0.04 16.64 4.00 0.00 Sep : 0.00 20.75 0.04 16.79 4.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : August : 8.03 52.62 11.53 63.76 1.29 7.11 September : 7.98 52.55 11.40 63.88 1.29 6.76 Indonesia Aug : 2.43 32.10 3.00 36.00 0.00 1.53 Sep : 2.43 32.10 3.00 36.00 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China Aug : 26.63 136.50 0.25 136.75 3.00 23.63 Sep : 26.43 136.50 0.25 136.75 3.20 23.23 Japan Aug : 1.77 8.00 0.75 9.10 0.40 1.02 Sep : 1.77 8.00 0.75 9.10 0.40 1.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-366-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 25.22 159.84 40.24 135.71 159.52 38.63 27.15 United States : 5.44 74.60 0.08 43.26 48.74 21.90 9.48 Total foreign : 19.79 85.24 40.16 92.45 110.78 16.74 17.66 Major exporters 3/ : 13.74 54.30 1.10 39.17 42.18 14.43 12.53 Argentina : 7.23 20.00 0.50 17.51 18.27 3.23 6.22 Brazil : 6.50 31.30 0.60 21.01 23.20 8.90 6.30 Major importers 4/ : 5.42 18.63 31.72 37.96 50.32 0.88 4.57 EU-15 : 1.00 1.54 16.77 16.23 17.77 0.70 0.85 Japan : 0.63 0.16 4.81 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.62 China : 3.47 15.15 3.85 12.61 19.43 0.18 2.86 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 27.15 156.33 46.79 136.99 160.39 46.47 23.41 United States : 9.48 71.93 0.08 43.00 47.62 26.67 7.20 Total foreign : 17.66 84.40 46.71 93.98 112.77 19.80 16.21 Major exporters 3/ : 12.53 55.00 1.20 38.65 41.67 17.50 9.56 Argentina : 6.22 20.70 0.50 16.90 17.67 5.10 4.65 Brazil : 6.30 31.40 0.70 21.10 23.30 10.20 4.90 Major importers 4/ : 4.57 17.43 37.61 40.11 52.67 0.92 6.01 EU-15 : 0.85 1.14 16.79 15.98 17.27 0.71 0.79 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.80 3.68 4.96 0.00 0.64 China : 2.86 14.29 9.00 14.62 21.64 0.20 4.31 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 23.77 169.08 45.50 140.83 164.71 45.61 28.02 September : 23.41 166.57 45.43 141.02 164.77 45.34 25.29 United States : August : 7.61 81.34 0.14 44.22 48.94 27.49 12.66 September : 7.20 78.91 0.08 44.36 49.05 27.22 9.93 Total foreign : August : 16.16 87.74 45.36 96.61 115.77 18.13 15.37 September : 16.21 87.65 45.34 96.66 115.72 18.13 15.36 Major exporters 3/ : August : 9.56 57.30 1.00 39.25 42.25 15.90 9.71 September : 9.56 57.30 1.00 39.25 42.25 15.90 9.71 Argentina Aug : 4.65 21.50 0.50 17.00 17.75 4.20 4.70 Sep : 4.65 21.50 0.50 17.00 17.75 4.20 4.70 Brazil Aug : 4.90 32.80 0.50 21.60 23.80 9.40 5.00 Sep : 4.90 32.80 0.50 21.60 23.80 9.40 5.00 Major importers 4/ : August : 5.97 18.20 35.99 41.46 54.31 0.88 4.97 September : 6.01 18.19 35.99 41.46 54.30 0.88 5.00 EU-15 Aug : 0.79 1.15 16.44 15.75 16.95 0.71 0.71 Sep : 0.79 1.14 16.44 15.75 16.94 0.71 0.70 Japan Aug : 0.64 0.19 4.70 3.67 4.96 0.00 0.58 Sep : 0.64 0.19 4.70 3.67 4.96 0.00 0.58 China Aug : 4.31 15.00 7.25 15.95 22.97 0.15 3.44 Sep : 4.31 15.00 7.25 15.95 22.97 0.15 3.44 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-366-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 3.63 107.59 39.37 107.01 39.06 4.53 United States : 0.20 34.28 0.09 27.81 6.46 0.30 Total foreign : 3.44 73.31 39.28 79.19 32.60 4.23 Major exporters 3/ : 1.31 34.81 0.10 8.46 26.35 1.41 Argentina : 0.36 14.00 0.00 0.46 13.40 0.50 Brazil : 0.94 16.60 0.10 6.65 10.15 0.84 India : 0.00 4.21 0.00 1.34 2.80 0.07 Major importers 4/ : 0.94 24.20 26.69 45.59 5.06 1.18 EU-15 : 0.75 12.91 20.05 27.76 5.04 0.92 China : 0.00 10.02 1.40 11.41 0.01 0.00 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.53 108.64 38.89 109.25 38.51 4.30 United States : 0.30 34.10 0.05 27.76 6.44 0.25 Total foreign : 4.23 74.54 38.84 81.49 32.07 4.05 Major exporters 3/ : 1.41 33.77 0.10 8.46 25.49 1.32 Argentina : 0.50 13.67 0.00 0.47 13.27 0.43 Brazil : 0.84 16.66 0.10 6.83 9.88 0.90 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 25.89 25.97 46.64 5.18 1.23 EU-15 : 0.92 12.71 19.99 27.59 5.14 0.89 China : 0.00 11.62 0.40 12.01 0.01 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 4.34 111.60 39.43 112.10 39.22 4.05 September : 4.30 111.83 39.54 112.39 39.22 4.05 United States : August : 0.30 34.96 0.06 28.35 6.71 0.25 September : 0.25 35.14 0.06 28.49 6.71 0.25 Total foreign : August : 4.05 76.64 39.38 83.75 32.51 3.80 September : 4.05 76.69 39.48 83.91 32.51 3.80 Major exporters 3/ : August : 1.32 34.56 0.10 8.68 26.04 1.26 September : 1.32 34.53 0.10 8.65 26.04 1.26 Argentina Aug : 0.43 13.75 0.00 0.48 13.24 0.46 Sep : 0.43 13.75 0.00 0.48 13.24 0.46 Brazil Aug : 0.90 17.07 0.10 6.96 10.30 0.80 Sep : 0.90 17.07 0.10 6.96 10.30 0.80 India Aug : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.25 2.50 0.00 Sep : 0.00 3.72 0.00 1.22 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.23 26.61 26.51 48.22 5.08 1.05 September : 1.23 26.70 26.54 48.34 5.08 1.05 EU-15 Aug : 0.89 12.52 19.72 27.31 5.06 0.76 Sep : 0.89 12.52 19.72 27.31 5.06 0.76 China Aug : 0.00 12.68 1.00 13.67 0.02 0.00 Sep : 0.00 12.68 1.00 13.67 0.02 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-366-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 2.36 24.64 7.86 24.54 8.07 2.26 United States : 0.63 8.20 0.04 7.10 1.08 0.69 Total foreign : 1.74 16.43 7.82 17.43 6.99 1.57 Major exporters 3/ : 0.91 10.01 0.85 4.75 6.15 0.87 Argentina : 0.33 3.16 0.00 0.11 3.08 0.31 Brazil : 0.42 3.93 0.21 2.82 1.38 0.36 EU-15 : 0.16 2.92 0.64 1.83 1.69 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 3.02 2.19 5.29 0.08 0.21 China : 0.35 2.05 0.95 3.08 0.08 0.19 Pakistan : 0.02 0.00 0.41 0.41 0.00 0.02 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.26 24.78 7.13 24.45 7.29 2.42 United States : 0.69 8.10 0.04 7.35 0.62 0.85 Total foreign : 1.57 16.68 7.09 17.11 6.67 1.56 Major exporters 3/ : 0.87 9.88 0.78 4.93 5.75 0.84 Argentina : 0.31 3.05 0.00 0.11 2.98 0.27 Brazil : 0.36 3.95 0.22 2.99 1.15 0.39 EU-15 : 0.20 2.88 0.56 1.83 1.62 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.18 1.42 4.43 0.08 0.31 China : 0.19 2.38 0.60 2.80 0.08 0.30 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 2.34 25.46 7.45 25.51 7.58 2.16 September : 2.42 25.49 7.59 25.78 7.48 2.23 United States : August : 0.85 8.37 0.04 7.55 0.82 0.89 September : 0.85 8.39 0.04 7.55 0.82 0.92 Total foreign : August : 1.49 17.09 7.41 17.96 6.76 1.27 September : 1.56 17.10 7.55 18.23 6.66 1.31 Major exporters 3/ : August : 0.77 9.96 0.71 4.86 5.88 0.69 September : 0.84 9.96 0.71 4.98 5.78 0.74 Argentina Aug : 0.27 3.07 0.00 0.11 2.98 0.25 Sep : 0.27 3.07 0.00 0.11 2.98 0.25 Brazil Aug : 0.32 4.04 0.15 2.89 1.35 0.27 Sep : 0.39 4.04 0.15 3.02 1.25 0.32 EU-15 Aug : 0.18 2.85 0.56 1.86 1.55 0.17 Sep : 0.18 2.85 0.56 1.86 1.55 0.17 Major importers 4/ : August : 0.31 3.44 1.85 5.32 0.05 0.23 September : 0.31 3.44 1.85 5.32 0.05 0.23 China Aug : 0.30 2.58 0.90 3.50 0.05 0.23 Sep : 0.30 2.58 0.90 3.50 0.05 0.23 Pakistan Aug : 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.26 0.00 0.01 Sep : 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.26 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-366-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World : 43.49 84.72 25.23 85.13 23.69 -0.15 44.78 United States : 3.89 13.92 0.44 10.40 4.34 -0.44 3.94 Total foreign : 39.60 70.81 24.79 74.73 19.34 0.29 40.84 Major exporters 5/ : 11.87 37.68 1.64 23.80 15.34 0.07 11.98 Pakistan : 1.52 6.30 0.93 7.00 0.01 0.03 1.71 India : 4.17 12.73 0.51 12.62 0.20 0.00 4.59 Central Asia 6/ : 1.56 6.60 0.01 1.24 5.39 0.00 1.54 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.92 4.03 4/ 0.26 3.57 0.00 1.11 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.52 5.40 0.20 1.18 4.88 0.02 2.04 Australia : 1.10 3.29 4/ 0.19 3.04 0.00 1.17 Argentina : 1.04 0.92 0.02 0.38 1.10 0.01 0.49 Major importers : 25.94 30.05 17.98 43.90 2.76 0.21 27.10 Brazil : 1.49 2.10 1.36 3.60 0.03 0.00 1.32 Mexico : 0.36 1.04 1.49 2.15 0.22 0.04 0.49 China : 19.96 20.70 0.36 19.20 0.68 0.00 21.13 Europe : 1.99 2.30 5.37 6.28 1.34 0.09 1.94 Turkey : 0.56 3.86 1.14 4.60 0.36 0.00 0.59 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.05 8.27 8.07 0.13 0.09 1.63 Indonesia : 0.14 0.01 2.33 2.20 0.00 0.04 0.24 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.47 1.46 0.04 0.00 0.41 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World : 44.78 86.85 27.32 91.45 27.28 0.29 39.92 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.24 6.80 0.02 3.95 Total foreign : 40.84 69.88 27.22 81.22 20.48 0.27 35.97 Major exporters 5/ : 11.98 39.56 1.99 25.04 15.68 0.07 12.73 Pakistan : 1.71 8.40 0.37 7.50 0.50 0.03 2.46 India : 4.59 12.30 1.20 13.30 0.05 0.00 4.74 Central Asia 6/ : 1.54 7.43 0.01 1.38 5.82 0.00 1.77 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.11 3.84 4/ 0.26 3.57 0.00 1.13 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.04 5.06 0.28 1.21 4.37 0.02 1.77 Australia : 1.17 3.25 4/ 0.19 3.21 0.00 1.02 Argentina : 0.49 0.58 0.05 0.40 0.35 0.01 0.35 Major importers : 27.10 27.52 19.00 48.37 3.73 0.20 21.32 Brazil : 1.32 2.90 1.30 3.95 0.05 0.00 1.52 Mexico : 0.49 0.67 1.85 2.40 0.15 0.03 0.43 China : 21.13 17.60 0.12 22.20 1.70 0.00 14.95 Europe : 1.94 2.63 5.36 6.21 1.52 0.08 2.12 Turkey : 0.59 3.68 1.90 5.40 0.18 0.00 0.59 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.63 0.04 8.47 8.21 0.13 0.10 1.70 Indonesia : 0.24 0.01 2.00 1.95 0.00 0.05 0.26 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.53 1.48 0.04 0.00 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 1.38 million bales in 1998/99 and 2.13 million in 1999/2000. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-366-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World : August : 40.14 87.31 28.08 92.47 27.64 0.28 35.15 September : 39.92 86.75 28.01 92.57 27.45 0.31 34.35 United States : August : 4.10 19.16 0.05 10.20 8.20 0.01 4.90 September : 3.95 18.32 0.08 10.20 7.90 0.04 4.20 Total foreign : August : 36.04 68.15 28.03 82.27 19.44 0.27 30.25 September : 35.97 68.43 27.94 82.37 19.55 0.27 30.15 Major exporters 5/ : August : 12.90 38.15 1.73 25.50 15.47 0.07 11.72 September : 12.73 38.46 1.68 25.50 15.56 0.07 11.72 Pakistan Aug : 2.46 7.30 0.30 7.60 0.40 0.03 2.03 Sep : 2.46 7.70 0.30 7.60 0.50 0.03 2.33 India Aug : 4.74 12.30 1.00 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.39 Sep : 4.74 12.30 0.95 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.34 Central Asia 6/Aug : 1.76 6.81 0.01 1.48 5.52 0.00 1.58 Sep : 1.77 6.81 0.01 1.48 5.57 0.00 1.54 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Aug : 1.16 3.98 4/ 0.25 3.76 0.00 1.13 Sep : 1.13 3.67 4/ 0.25 3.53 0.00 1.01 S. Hemis 8/ Aug : 1.93 5.53 0.22 1.22 4.55 0.02 1.89 Sep : 1.77 5.76 0.22 1.22 4.72 0.02 1.80 Australia Aug : 1.18 3.30 4/ 0.20 3.10 0.00 1.18 Sep : 1.02 3.50 4/ 0.20 3.25 0.00 1.07 Argentina Aug : 0.35 0.85 0.02 0.42 0.50 0.01 0.29 Sep : 0.35 0.85 0.02 0.42 0.50 0.01 0.29 Major importers Aug : 21.23 26.90 20.04 48.74 2.68 0.20 16.56 Sep : 21.32 26.93 20.00 48.84 2.76 0.20 16.46 Brazil Aug : 1.52 3.20 1.20 4.20 0.09 0.00 1.63 Sep : 1.52 3.20 1.10 4.20 0.09 0.00 1.53 Mexico Aug : 0.43 0.30 2.30 2.50 0.08 0.03 0.43 Sep : 0.43 0.30 2.30 2.50 0.08 0.03 0.43 China Aug : 14.93 17.50 0.70 22.20 0.70 0.00 10.23 Sep : 14.95 17.50 0.70 22.20 0.70 0.00 10.25 Europe Aug : 2.10 2.36 5.52 6.31 1.55 0.08 2.04 Sep : 2.12 2.38 5.52 6.31 1.63 0.08 2.01 Turkey Aug : 0.59 3.50 2.10 5.50 0.14 0.00 0.55 Sep : 0.59 3.50 2.10 5.50 0.14 0.00 0.55 Sel. Asia 9/ Aug : 1.65 0.05 8.23 8.03 0.12 0.10 1.67 Sep : 1.70 0.05 8.29 8.13 0.12 0.10 1.68 Indonesia Aug : 0.26 0.01 2.10 2.05 0.00 0.05 0.27 Sep : 0.26 0.01 2.10 2.05 0.00 0.05 0.27 S. Korea Aug : 0.42 4/ 1.50 1.50 0.04 0.00 0.39 Sep : 0.42 4/ 1.50 1.50 0.04 0.00 0.39 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.13 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-366-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1999 : III : 6838 4672 11624 7486 1362 8986 20610 1728 39.8 IV : 6522 5110 11756 7367 1393 8894 20650 1786 40.4 Annual : 26386 19278 46134 29741 5297 35590 81724 6912 162.7 : 2000 : I : 6653 4824 11595 7602 1284 9019 20614 1754 42.6 II : 6697 4470 11279 7754 1392 9285 20564 1743 43.2 III *: 6925 4600 11627 7650 1375 9160 20787 1755 40.9 IV *: 6500 4975 11583 7700 1400 9235 20818 1810 41.0 Annual : Aug Proj : 26775 18869 46084 30658 5450 36649 82733 7072 167.5 Sep Proj : 26775 18869 46084 30706 5452 36699 82783 7062 167.7 : 2001 : I *: 6500 4750 11361 7900 1300 9340 20701 1770 42.7 II *: 6525 4525 11154 8100 1400 9645 20799 1765 43.3 Annual : Aug Proj : 25575 19050 45040 32300 5450 38315 83355 7170 167.4 Sep Proj : 25475 19050 44940 32000 5500 38065 83005 7155 167.5 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1999 : III : 65.12 35.70 58.1 73.8 66.2 14.87 IV : 69.65 36.29 57.6 76.9 63.2 13.83 Annual : 65.56 34.00 58.1 69.0 65.6 14.36 : 2000 : I : 69.32 41.14 54.6 62.9 63.3 11.90 II : 71.59 50.43 55.7 69.0 62.1 12.03 III *: 64-65 45-46 56-57 73-74 65-66 12.50-12.70 IV *: 67-71 39-41 54-56 76-80 65-69 13.05-13.55 Annual : Aug Proj : 68-70 45-46 55-57 70-72 63-65 12.30-12.50 Sep Proj : 68-69 44-45 55-56 70-71 64-65 12.35-12.55 : 2001 : I *: 67-73 41-45 51-55 60-64 60-66 11.70-12.50 II *: 71-77 44-48 52-56 63-69 53-57 10.90-11.90 Annual : Aug Proj : 72-77 42-46 53-58 65-71 59-63 12.20-13.20 Sep Proj : 71-77 41-45 52-56 65-71 59-63 12.20-13.20 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-366-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1999 : 393 26493 2874 29760 2411 411 26938 69.1 2000 Proj. Aug : 411 26881 3029 30321 2515 390 27416 69.6 Sep : 411 26881 3018 30310 2529 390 27391 69.6 2001 Proj. Aug : 390 25681 3050 29121 2435 365 26321 66.3 Sep : 390 25581 3050 29021 2455 365 26201 66.0 : PORK : 1999 : 584 19308 827 20720 1285 489 18945 53.9 2000 Proj. Aug : 489 18899 1005 20393 1260 500 18633 52.5 Sep : 489 18899 999 20387 1253 500 18634 52.5 2001 Proj. Aug : 500 19080 1005 20585 1305 500 18780 52.4 Sep : 500 19080 1005 20585 1305 500 18780 52.5 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1999 : 994 46284 3813 51092 3701 914 46476 124.8 2000 Proj. Aug : 914 46233 4148 51295 3781 904 46610 123.8 Sep : 914 46233 4134 51281 3788 904 46589 123.9 2001 Proj. Aug : 904 45189 4169 50262 3744 879 45639 120.4 Sep : 904 45089 4169 50162 3764 879 45519 120.2 : BROILERS : 1999 : 711 29468 4 30183 4866 796 24521 77.2 2000 Proj. Aug : 796 30370 4 31169 5055 850 25264 78.7 Sep : 796 30418 4 31218 5206 850 25162 78.5 2001 Proj. Aug : 850 31967 4 32821 5050 880 26891 83.1 Sep : 850 31670 4 32524 5200 880 26444 81.8 : TURKEYS : 1999 : 304 5230 1 5535 379 254 4902 18.0 2000 Proj. Aug : 254 5381 0 5635 419 250 4967 18.0 Sep : 254 5382 1 5637 426 225 4986 18.1 2001 Proj. Aug : 250 5380 1 5631 420 275 4935 17.8 Sep : 225 5429 1 5655 420 275 4959 17.9 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1999 : 1022 35252 7 36281 5638 1058 29585 95.7 2000 Proj. Aug : 1058 36294 6 37357 5823 1105 30428 97.5 Sep : 1058 36343 7 37408 5967 1080 30360 97.3 2001 Proj. Aug : 1105 37911 7 39023 5830 1165 32027 101.6 Sep : 1080 37664 7 38751 5980 1165 31604 100.4 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1999 : 2016 81537 3820 87372 9340 1972 76061 220.5 2000 Proj. Aug : 1972 82527 4154 88652 9603 2009 77039 221.3 Sep : 1972 82576 4141 88689 9754 1984 76949 221.2 2001 Proj. Aug : 2009 83100 4176 89285 9574 2044 77666 222.0 Sep : 1984 82753 4176 88913 9744 2044 77123 220.5 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-366-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2000 Projected : 2001 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1998 : 1999 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.4 8.4 7.6 7.6 6.5 6.5 Production : 6657.9 6912.0 7072.1 7062.1 7170.0 7155.0 Imports : 5.8 7.4 7.5 7.0 5.0 5.0 Total supply : 6671.2 6927.8 7087.2 7076.7 7181.5 7166.5 : Use : Exports : 218.8 161.7 163.0 162.8 170.0 170.0 Hatching use : 921.8 941.7 962.9 942.9 1015.0 980.0 Ending stocks : 8.4 7.6 6.5 6.5 5.0 5.0 Consumption : Total : 5522.2 5816.8 5954.8 5964.5 5991.5 6011.5 Per capita (number) : 244.9 255.7 259.2 259.9 258.7 259.7 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Proj 1/: 2000/01 Proj 1/ Commodity :1997/98:1998/99:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.9 5.8 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 Production : 156.5 161.2 167.0 167.0 167.6 167.8 Farm use : 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 155.1 159.8 165.6 165.7 166.3 166.5 Imports 2/ : 4.1 4.8 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.9 Total cml. supply 2/ : 165.1 170.5 177.4 177.6 177.6 177.9 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 158.6 162.8 169.1 169.3 170.4 170.7 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.8 7.4 7.5 7.5 6.8 6.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.5 5.4 8.6 8.4 3.0 3.1 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 13.28 14.04 9.85- 9.90- 10.10- 10.15- : 10.05 10.10 11.10 11.15 : Class IV : NA NA 11.35- 11.35- 10.70- 10.70- : 11.65 11.65 11.90 11.90 : All milk 6/ : 14.60 15.37 12.45- 12.50- 11.85- 11.90- : 12.65 12.70 12.85 12.90 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 21 1 12 11 15 15 Cheese : 8 6 15 17 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 368 449 705 685 255 260 Dry whole milk : 15 12 35 34 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-366-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 19-year record of the differences between the September projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the September projection and the final estimate have averaged 10.6 million tons (2.0%) ranging from -30.7 to 13.1 million tons. The September projection has been below the estimate 11 times and above 8 times. Reliability of September Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.0 10.6 -30.7 13.1 11 8 U.S. : 1.0 0.7 -1.4 2.5 7 12 Foreign : 2.3 10.4 -30.9 12.0 11 8 Exports : World : 4.0 4.5 -13.5 6.2 13 6 U.S. : 8.9 3.0 -10.0 7.2 7 12 Foreign : 4.8 3.9 -11.5 4.0 13 6 Domestic use : World : 1.6 8.4 -23.4 13.2 12 7 U.S. : 6.1 1.9 -3.7 3.6 9 10 Foreign : 1.5 7.7 -21.0 12.3 14 5 Ending stocks : World : 7.0 8.7 -26.0 14.3 13 6 U.S. : 13.7 3.3 -9.1 12.4 10 9 Foreign : 7.5 7.2 -25.4 7.4 12 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.5 12.3 -39.4 20.7 14 5 U.S. : 3.7 8.3 -21.5 26.0 13 6 Foreign : 1.6 9.2 -23.3 11.6 12 7 Exports : World : 5.8 6.0 -11.5 16.5 12 7 U.S. : 14.8 8.0 -19.0 14.5 9 10 Foreign : 12.5 6.3 -12.4 12.7 10 9 Domestic use : World : 1.2 10.1 -29.1 20.8 7 12 U.S. : 3.8 6.8 -15.8 13.2 12 7 Foreign : 1.4 8.9 -20.2 22.0 11 8 Ending stocks : World : 10.7 14.8 -43.2 9.0 14 5 U.S. : 18.4 9.5 -32.2 13.5 9 10 Foreign : 13.1 9.9 -25.8 7.7 16 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.3 7.8 -24.1 3.4 17 2 U.S. : 4.5 0.2 -0.5 0.4 10 8 Foreign : 2.4 7.9 -24.4 3.6 17 2 Exports : World : 9.0 1.6 -6.7 0.8 12 7 U.S. : 7.7 0.2 -0.7 0.9 8 9 Foreign : 10.2 1.6 -6.7 0.7 13 6 Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.5 -22.7 3.0 15 4 U.S. : 5.6 0.1 -0.4 0.4 10 9 Foreign : 1.7 5.5 -23.1 3.2 15 4 Ending stocks : World : 13.0 4.9 -13.0 5.2 15 4 U.S. : 16.8 0.2 -0.9 0.4 10 9 Foreign : 14.0 5.0 -13.4 6.1 15 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-366-32 Reliability of September Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.0 3.4 -9.3 4.7 12 7 U.S. : 4.6 2.6 -5.5 4.6 9 10 Foreign : 5.5 3.2 -10.0 4.6 10 9 Exports : World : 5.7 1.8 -4.9 2.5 14 5 U.S. : 9.8 2.0 -4.6 5.5 11 8 Foreign : 16.7 1.5 -3.8 2.3 8 11 Domestic use : World : 3.1 3.7 -9.3 3.1 12 7 U.S. : 3.8 1.4 -3.8 1.5 13 6 Foreign : 3.9 3.1 -6.1 3.7 13 6 Ending stocks : World : 14.1 2.4 -6.6 6.8 9 10 U.S. : 30.8 2.2 -3.5 4.9 5 14 Foreign : 17.3 1.9 -4.8 3.2 11 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.4 2.8 -10.9 9.5 11 8 U.S. : 4.7 0.7 -1.9 2.4 10 8 Foreign : 4.0 2.7 -11.2 9.8 10 9 Exports : World : 4.7 1.2 -3.3 2.2 10 9 U.S. : 15.0 0.8 -2.1 2.0 10 9 Foreign : 6.4 1.1 -3.3 1.9 8 11 Mill use : World : 2.6 2.1 -6.6 3.2 7 12 U.S. : 5.6 0.4 -1.1 0.9 11 6 Foreign : 2.7 2.0 -5.9 4.0 7 11 Ending stocks : World : 12.5 4.3 -12.7 12.5 12 7 U.S. : 30.5 1.2 -2.3 2.5 8 11 Foreign : 12.7 3.9 -13.2 10.9 12 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-98/99 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1999/00 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 19 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-366-33 Reliability of United States September Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 4.0 302 -846 885 13 6 Exports : 15.5 283 -725 521 8 11 Domestic use : 4.2 254 -553 430 12 7 Ending stocks : 21.8 347 -1321 490 10 9 : SORGHUM : Production : 4.7 31 -69 81 10 8 Exports : 17.9 43 -115 97 10 9 Domestic use : 8.7 41 -114 78 10 9 Ending stocks : 39.8 53 -155 112 6 13 : BARLEY : Production : 2.7 12 -29 36 8 11 Exports : 31.0 20 -82 38 9 8 Domestic use : 7.4 28 -47 72 10 7 Ending stocks : 14.0 25 -61 70 8 11 : OATS : Production : 5.9 15 -19 44 4 14 Exports : 81.2 2 -5 8 5 9 Domestic use : 4.3 16 -39 30 7 12 Ending stocks : 14.8 19 -40 47 12 7 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.8 1159 -2846 1440 12 7 Exports : 11.4 766 -1750 1900 8 11 Domestic use : 3.4 775 -1550 1075 14 5 Ending stocks : 35.6 82 -179 368 8 9 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.7 525 -1473 791 11 8 Exports : 28.3 427 -1250 1219 10 9 Domestic use : 2.8 348 -985 300 15 4 Ending stocks : 28.7 417 -975 1143 7 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.8 929 -566 2486 11 6 Pork : 2.5 411 -1315 1242 7 10 Broilers : 2.0 425 -1337 622 13 4 Turkeys : 2.4 99 -444 235 12 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.6 97 -111 188 12 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 1.9 -7.1 4.6 9 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-98/99 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1999/00 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 19 for crops and 17 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1984 thru 1999 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1983/84 thru 1998/99 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-366-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- END OF FILE -----