WASDE-401 August 12, 2003 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are down 94 million bushels from last month due to smaller production and increased use. Total wheat production is forecast at 2.292 billion bushels, down 19 million bushels from last month due to smaller winter and spring wheat crops. Projected imports are down 10 million bushels from last month, while exports are up 75 million due to reduced competition. The reduced food use reflects downward adjustments for 2001/02 and 2002/03 linked to recently revised mill grind estimates released by the Bureau of Census for calendar year 2002. The projected 2003/04 price range is up 30 cents on each end to $3.10 to $3.70 per bushel. Projected 2003/04 global wheat production and stocks are down sharply from last month. Foreign production is down almost 10 million tons from last month and is 32 million tons below last year. Compared to last month, projected production is down 5 million tons in the EU, 3 million tons in Canada, 2.7 million tons in Eastern Europe, and 1 million tons in Ukraine. Despite reductions in domestic use and stocks, the lower EU crop results in a 3.5-million-ton drop in EU exports to 10.5 million tons, the lowest number on record. Canada's domestic use and exports are also reduced, but most of the adjustment to the lower production is reflected in smaller ending stocks. The smaller East European crops result in increased imports but lower exports, domestic use, and stocks. The smaller Ukraine crop is offset by larger prospective imports. Global imports are down from last month due to larger production and reduced imports by Brazil, Iran, and North Africa, and reduced import expectations for China and the EU. Projected U.S. and Russian exports are raised due to the reduced competition from Canada and the EU. Most of the reduction in projected 2003/04 global ending stocks is in the major foreign exporting countries, especially Canada and the EU. COARSE GRAINS: This month's outlook for 2003/04 U.S. feed grains is for lower crops, reduced use, and lower stocks. The first survey-based forecast of 2003 corn production is down 206 million bushels from last month's projected crop, which was based on trend yields adjusted for crop conditions. Projected feed and residual use of corn is up 25 million bushels due to a sharply lower sorghum crop, but is offset by a reduction in industrial use of corn. Projected corn exports are down 50 million bushels due to increased competition. The first survey-based yield forecast for sorghum is sharply below the trend yield used last month, due to very hot and dry conditions in many of the major sorghum producing regions. The smaller sorghum crop is reflected in reduced domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. The projected price range for corn is up 10 cents on each end from last month to $2.00 to $2.40 per bushel. Global 2003/04 coarse grain supply and use projections are down from last month, largely due to smaller U.S., EU, and Eastern Europe crops. The smaller EU coarse grain crops result in reduced domestic use, stocks, and exports (rye and oats) but larger projected imports (sorghum and corn). The smaller Eastern Europe crops result in larger imports but smaller domestic use, stocks, and exports. Much of the reduction in projected East European exports will be corn. Larger Brazilian corn and Chinese exports will offset the drop in U.S. and Eastern Europe exports. RICE: USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2003/04 U.S. rice crop is 195.1 million cwt, up slightly from last month's projection but down nearly 16 million cwt from 2002/03. The U.S. 2003/04 average yield is forecast at 6,577 pounds per acre, up 5 pounds per acre from last month, but only 1 pound per acre below record 2002/03. Long-grain production is forecast at 144.7 million cwt while combined medium- and short-grain production is projected at 50.4 million cwt, both nearly the same as last month. U.S. rice exports for 2003/04 are projected at 87 million cwt, unchanged from last month, but 34 million cwt below revised record 2002/03. Combined milled and brown rice exports are projected at 50 million cwt (rough- equivalent basis) while rough rice exports are projected at 37 million cwt, both unchanged from last month. Ending stocks are projected at 17.6 million cwt, nearly the same as last month, but down nearly 3 million cwt from 2002/03. The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 to $7.00 per cwt, up 25 cents on both ends from a month earlier, and up from a revised $4.20 per cwt in 2002/03. Global 2003/04 rice production is projected at 390.6 million tons, 3.5 million tons below last month, but nearly 11 million tons above 2002/03. Projected production is lowered for China, India, Bangladesh, Japan, and the Philippines, while Brazil's crop is increased. World ending stocks for 2003/04 are projected at 85.1 million tons, 3.4 million tons below last month and 21.4 million tons below 2002/03. These are the lowest ending stocks since 1983/84. World consumption and trade for 2003/04 are nearly unchanged from a month ago. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed stocks for 2003/04 are projected at 7.0 million tons, down 1.0 million tons from last month. U.S. oilseed production is projected at 87.5 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from last month based mainly on a smaller forecast soybean crop. The first survey-based forecast of U.S. soybean production, at 2,862 million bushels, is down 23 million bushels from last month's projection, which was based on trend yields. The forecast yield is 39.4 bushels per acre, up 1.6 bushels per acre from 2002/03. The survey-based production forecast for peanuts is increased from last month, while cottonseed production is down. Projected soybean exports are up 10 million bushels because of increased global protein meal demand. Soybean ending stocks for 2003/04 are projected at 220 million bushels, down 40 million bushels from last month. For 2002/03, soybean ending stocks are down 10 million bushels from last month to 145 million bushels because of larger-than-expected exports late in the season. The projected season-average soybean price for 2003/04 is raised 20 cents on each end of the range to $4.55 to $5.55 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are projected at $155 to $180 per short ton compared with $145 to $175 per short ton last month. Soybean oil prices are unchanged at 18.0 to 21.0 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 2003/04 is projected at a record 351.7 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from last month, but up 23.8 million tons from 2002/03. Foreign rapeseed production is lowered this month due to reduced yield prospects in Canada and Slovakia. Foreign sunflowerseed production is projected higher based on increased area for Russia. Other changes include increased soybean and cottonseed crops for India, and increased palm oil output for Malaysia and Indonesia. Global vegetable oil inventories are forecast at 7.2 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from 2002/03. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2003/04 is increased 389,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Production reflects processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Beet sugar production is increased 209,000 tons and cane sugar is increased 181,000 tons from month-earlier projections by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. On the use side, deliveries to manufacturers of sugar-containing products for re-export are increased 10,000 tons. For 2002/03, production is nearly unchanged, with approximate offsets in the cane and beet sectors. Imports are nearly unchanged with lower tariff rate quota imports (due to higher shortfall) offsetting higher imports under the re-export program. On the use side, lower exports offset higher deliveries to manufacturers of sugar-containing products for re-export. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production in 2003 and 2004 is forecast lower than last month. The greatest impact in both 2003 and 2004 is expected to result from USDA's recent announcement of conditions for resuming beef imports from Canada. Beef production forecasts are reduced as live cattle shipments from Canada for both immediate slaughter and placement in U.S. feedlots remain restricted. Although dry conditions in the United States are resulting in higher placements than forecast last month, steer and heifer slaughter is forecast lower in the latter part of the year as declines in slaughter cattle imports from Canada more than offset the higher placements. For 2004, beef production forecasts are reduced, reflecting continued restrictions on imports of cattle from Canada. The 2003 pork production forecast is increased slightly from last month as slaughter rates in the third quarter have been higher than expected. Broiler production forecasts are reduced due to lower-than-expected slaughter in June. Forecasts for subsequent quarters are unchanged for both pork and poultry. Beef imports for 2003 and 2004 are changed as product flows from Canada adjust to the conditions for trade resumption. The import forecast for 2003 is reduced as shipments from Canada are limited to boneless cuts of meat from animals less than 30 months of age. Although some gain is expected in those cuts as some stored product is shipped and market- ready cattle which would have been shipped to the United States are processed in Canada, the loss of trade in other beef products results in a reduction in the aggregate import forecast. For 2004, however, increased domestic feeding and slaughter of cattle in Canada and the subsequent export of cuts result in an increase in the beef import forecast. Beef exports for 2003 are raised due to higher shipments to Japan in advance of the increase in their beef tariff on August 1 and expected steady shipments to Canada. Forecasts of trade for other meats are unchanged from last month. Cattle prices are forecast higher than last month as beef demand remains firm and reduced supplies of cattle from Canada are expected to support prices. Hog price forecasts for 2003 are higher than last month as third-quarter hog prices thus far have been higher than expected. Broiler price forecasts are unchanged from last month but turkey price forecasts for 2003 are lowered. Dairy production forecasts for 2002/03 and 2003/04 are lowered from last month as milk-per-cow forecasts are reduced. Cheese prices have remained relatively strong and in the face of slower growth in milk production, Class price forecasts are raised from last month. The Class III price forecast is raised to $10.50 to $10.60 per cwt for 2002/03 and the Class IV price forecast is raised to $10.00 to $10.20 per cwt. Large stocks of butter and nonfat dry milk will likely limit gains in Class IV prices. The average all milk price forecast is raised to $11.80 to $11.90 per cwt. Price forecasts for 2003/04 are also raised as milk production forecasts are reduced. The Class III price forecast is increased to $10.25 to $11.15 per cwt and the Class IV price is forecast at $9.65 to $10.75 per cwt. The all milk price is forecast at $11.60 to $12.50 per cwt. COTTON: The U.S. forecasts for 2003/04 include higher production and lower domestic mill use, resulting in higher ending stocks relative to last month. NASS's first 2003 crop forecast is 17.1 million bales, 3 percent above last month's projection. Combined with lower beginning stocks, the total supply is marginally higher. Domestic mill use is reduced 200,000 bales, as rising textile inventories and mill closings indicate a more pessimistic outlook. Ending stocks of 4.2 million bales are 300,000 bales above last month. The world 2003/04 forecasts include higher production and stocks compared with last month. Beginning stocks are raised about 650,000 bales as increases for China, Australia, Mexico, and India are partially offset by a reduction for the United States. World production includes increases for the United States and India, partially offset by a reduction for Australia. World consumption and trade are nearly unchanged. The consumption forecast includes a significant increase for China, which is offset by decreases in the United States, India, Taiwan, and others. World ending stocks are raised 3.7 percent from last month. The world estimates for 2002/03 reflect recent data on production and trade, which have raised estimated world ending stocks. Production and exports are raised in Australia, and imports are raised for China and Mexico, but lowered for Taiwan. These changes are partially offset by increased exports, mainly for the United States. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: WILLIAM HAWKS (for) SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on September 11, 2003. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11. Mark Your Calendar for Outlook Forum 2004 USDA will hold the 80th Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19-20, 2004, in Arlington, Virginia. Details will be announced in the fall. To receive detailed information, send your address to agforum@oce.usda.gov or write to Outlook Forum 2004, USDA/WAOB, Mail Stop 3812 South Building, Washington, D.C. 20250-3812. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. 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WASDE-401-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 1,872.01 2,408.77 238.57 1,899.47 509.30 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,810.62 2,319.92 233.67 1,907.30 412.62 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 1,862.02 2,273.74 225.59 1,921.24 352.50 August : 1,830.20 2,242.83 222.74 1,915.42 327.41 Wheat : 2001/02 : 581.08 781.74 108.04 584.57 197.17 2002/03 (Est.) : 563.04 760.21 103.46 596.14 164.07 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 560.30 724.41 98.92 584.12 140.29 August : 549.35 713.42 97.91 582.87 130.56 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 892.31 1,080.40 103.50 904.64 175.76 2002/03 (Est.) : 867.94 1,043.71 102.47 901.65 142.06 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 907.64 1,048.62 101.30 924.95 123.67 August : 890.27 1,032.33 99.20 920.58 111.74 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 398.61 546.64 27.03 410.26 136.37 2002/03 (Est.) : 379.64 516.01 27.74 409.52 106.49 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 394.08 500.71 25.38 412.16 88.55 August : 390.58 497.08 25.63 411.96 85.11 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 321.86 405.20 84.29 253.48 67.42 2002/03 (Est.) : 295.54 368.12 72.86 252.34 42.92 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 352.57 401.38 83.29 258.97 59.12 August : 344.06 392.57 82.93 257.53 52.10 Wheat : 2001/02 : 53.26 80.04 26.19 32.70 21.15 2002/03 (Est.) : 43.99 67.25 23.21 30.65 13.38 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 62.89 79.00 26.54 32.39 20.08 August : 62.37 78.20 28.58 32.11 17.51 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 261.86 317.12 55.15 216.92 45.05 2002/03 (Est.) : 245.04 292.67 45.92 217.84 28.91 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 283.58 315.16 54.03 222.64 38.49 August : 275.58 307.14 51.64 221.47 34.04 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 6.74 8.04 2.96 3.87 1.22 2002/03 (Est.) : 6.51 8.20 3.73 3.85 0.62 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 6.10 7.22 2.72 3.95 0.55 August : 6.11 7.22 2.72 3.95 0.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-401-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 1,550.15 2,003.57 154.28 1,645.98 441.88 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,515.08 1,951.80 160.80 1,654.96 369.70 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 1,509.45 1,872.36 142.31 1,662.27 293.38 August : 1,486.14 1,850.26 139.81 1,657.88 275.31 Wheat : 2001/02 : 527.82 701.70 81.85 551.87 176.02 2002/03 (Est.) : 519.05 692.96 80.24 565.48 150.69 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 497.40 645.41 72.39 551.74 120.21 August : 486.98 635.22 69.33 550.76 113.04 Coarse grains 5/ : 2001/02 : 630.45 763.28 48.36 687.71 130.71 2002/03 (Est.) : 622.90 751.04 56.56 683.80 113.15 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 624.07 733.46 47.26 702.31 85.17 August : 614.68 725.19 47.56 699.12 77.71 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 391.87 538.59 24.07 406.40 135.15 2002/03 (Est.) : 373.13 507.81 24.01 405.67 105.87 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 387.98 493.49 22.66 408.22 88.00 August : 384.48 489.85 22.91 408.01 84.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2001/02 : 98.46 141.11 29.05 94.38 47.19 2002/03 (Est.) : 87.99 135.18 30.54 97.77 37.62 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 94.84 131.80 29.98 99.14 32.96 August : 95.38 132.99 30.01 99.16 34.29 : United States 2001/02 : 20.30 26.32 11.00 7.70 7.45 2002/03 (Est.) : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.30 5.50 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 16.60 22.45 11.80 6.80 3.90 August : 17.10 22.65 11.80 6.60 4.30 : Foreign 3/ 2001/02 : 78.16 114.79 18.05 86.68 39.74 2002/03 (Est.) : 70.78 110.45 18.64 90.47 32.12 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 78.24 109.35 18.18 92.34 29.06 August : 78.27 110.34 18.21 92.56 29.99 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-401-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 324.44 360.08 64.06 264.57 36.71 2002/03 (Est.) : 327.84 364.55 72.04 269.16 38.67 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 352.06 390.30 74.42 286.63 43.43 August : 351.68 390.35 74.88 287.72 42.35 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 183.05 188.42 53.75 183.85 5.75 2002/03 (Est.) : 187.30 193.05 55.76 187.92 5.99 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 198.62 204.41 59.58 197.29 6.30 August : 199.32 205.31 60.12 198.41 6.37 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 92.24 100.80 33.59 92.39 7.79 2002/03 (Est.) : 94.08 101.87 35.63 94.32 6.83 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 99.40 105.97 36.47 98.41 6.78 August : 100.05 106.88 36.74 98.92 7.18 : : United States Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 89.83 98.30 29.97 50.62 6.87 2002/03 (Est.) : 83.25 90.67 29.32 47.33 4.89 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 87.85 93.60 27.74 48.19 7.98 August : 87.50 93.04 28.12 48.24 7.02 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 38.89 40.34 7.06 32.99 0.29 2002/03 (Est.) : 36.35 37.59 5.69 31.61 0.30 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 37.20 38.67 5.66 32.74 0.27 August : 37.22 38.68 5.75 32.66 0.27 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 9.64 12.99 1.55 10.14 1.30 2002/03 (Est.) : 9.15 12.11 1.24 10.00 0.88 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 9.30 11.89 0.78 10.30 0.82 August : 9.32 11.91 0.78 10.22 0.91 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 234.61 261.78 34.09 213.94 29.84 2002/03 (Est.) : 244.60 273.88 42.73 221.83 33.77 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 264.20 296.70 46.68 238.43 35.45 August : 264.19 297.31 46.76 239.48 35.33 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 144.16 148.08 46.69 150.85 5.46 2002/03 (Est.) : 150.95 155.46 50.07 156.31 5.69 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 161.43 165.74 53.92 164.55 6.03 August : 162.10 166.63 54.36 165.75 6.10 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 82.60 87.81 32.04 82.25 6.48 2002/03 (Est.) : 84.93 89.76 34.39 84.32 5.95 2003/04 (Proj.) : July : 90.10 94.08 35.69 88.11 5.96 August : 90.74 94.97 35.96 88.70 6.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-401-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 59.6 60.4 60.9 60.9 Harvested : 48.6 45.8 52.7 52.7 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 40.2 35.3 43.9 43.5 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 876 777 492 492 Production : 1,957 1,616 2,311 2,292 Imports : 108 77 100 90 Supply, total : 2,941 2,471 2,903 2,874 Food : 927 925 930 920 Seed : 84 83 85 85 Feed and residual : 191 119 175 175 Domestic, total : 1,201 1,126 1,190 1,180 Exports : 962 853 975 1,050 Use, total : 2,164 1,979 2,165 2,230 Ending stocks : 777 492 738 644 CCC inventory : 99 66 Free stocks : 678 426 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.78 3.56 2.80- 3.40 3.10- 3.70 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2002/03 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616 Supply, total 3/ : 980 610 416 322 142 2,471 Domestic use : 479 211 256 102 77 1,126 Exports : 311 254 105 145 37 853 Use, total : 791 465 361 247 115 1,979 Ending stocks, total : 189 145 55 75 28 492 : 2003/04 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 189 145 55 75 28 492 Production : 1,093 460 365 286 87 2,292 Supply, total 3/ : 1,290 645 420 373 145 2,874 Domestic use : 491 236 261 106 85 1,180 Exports : 460 255 100 200 35 1,050 Use, total : 951 492 361 306 120 2,230 Ending stocks, total : August : 339 153 59 67 25 644 July : 375 179 60 92 31 738 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price receive by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-401-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 95.4 98.7 98.7 * 99.0 Harvested : 83.6 82.8 87.3 * 87.4 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.13 2.96 3.25 3.15 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 52.7 45.0 28.9 28.9 Production : 261.7 244.9 283.4 275.4 Imports : 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 Supply, total : 316.8 292.3 314.8 306.8 Feed and residual : 158.5 152.9 152.6 152.2 Food, seed & industrial : 58.1 64.6 69.7 69.0 Domestic, total : 216.6 217.5 222.3 221.2 Exports : 55.1 45.9 54.0 51.6 Use, total : 271.7 263.4 276.3 272.8 Ending stocks, total : 45.0 28.9 38.5 34.0 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.1 Free stocks : 44.9 28.8 Outstanding loans : 5.6 6.5 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 75.8 79.1 79.1 * 79.1 Harvested : 68.8 69.3 72.0 * 71.9 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.2 130.0 142.7 * 139.9 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,899 1,596 1,009 1,009 Production : 9,507 9,008 10,270 10,064 Imports : 10 15 10 10 Supply, total : 11,416 10,619 11,289 11,084 Feed and residual : 5,861 5,700 5,600 5,625 Food, seed & industrial : 2,054 2,310 2,500 2,475 Domestic, total : 7,915 8,010 8,100 8,100 Exports : 1,905 1,600 1,850 1,800 Use, total : 9,820 9,610 9,950 9,900 Ending stocks, total : 1,596 1,009 1,339 1,184 CCC inventory : 6 5 Free stocks : 1,590 1,004 Outstanding loans : 213 250 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.97 2.30 1.90- 2.30 2.00- 2.40 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. Corn projected yield is the trend yield adjusted for crop conditions. WASDE-401-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.3 9.6 9.5 * 9.8 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.6 7.3 8.1 * 8.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 50.7 67.8 * 54.4 Beginning stocks : 42 61 41 41 Production : 515 370 551 448 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 556 431 592 489 Feed and residual : 208 165 225 185 Food, seed & industrial : 45 45 55 50 Total domestic : 253 210 280 235 Exports : 242 180 250 210 Use, total : 495 390 530 445 Ending stocks, total : 61 41 62 44 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 2.33 1.65- 2.05 2.00- 2.40 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.1 5.5 * 5.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.3 4.1 4.9 * 4.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.2 54.9 59.5 * 57.5 Beginning stocks : 106 93 69 69 Production : 249 227 292 281 Imports : 24 18 30 30 Supply, total : 380 338 391 381 Feed and residual : 88 66 100 100 Food, seed & industrial : 172 173 173 173 Total domestic : 260 239 273 273 Exports : 26 30 30 25 Use, total : 287 269 303 298 Ending stocks, total : 93 69 88 83 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.22 2.72 2.15- 2.55 2.20- 2.60 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.4 5.0 4.7 * 4.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.9 2.1 2.3 * 2.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.4 56.8 64.7 * 64.9 Beginning stocks : 73 63 50 50 Production : 117 119 148 151 Imports : 96 95 95 95 Supply, total : 286 277 293 296 Feed and residual : 148 153 150 150 Food, seed & industrial : 72 72 73 73 Total domestic : 220 225 223 223 Exports : 3 3 2 2 Use, total : 223 228 225 225 Ending stocks, total : 63 50 68 71 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.59 1.81 1.15- 1.55 1.15- 1.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2002 period. Barley and oats: Area, yield and production as reported in July Crop Production. WASDE-401-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.33 3.24 2.99 * 2.99 Harvested : 3.31 3.21 2.97 * 2.97 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,496 6,578 6,572 * 6,577 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 28.5 39.0 20.7 20.2 Production : 215.3 211.0 195.0 195.1 Imports : 13.2 15.0 15.0 15.5 Supply, total : 256.9 264.9 230.7 230.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 123.5 123.7 126.2 126.3 Exports, total 4/ : 94.5 121.0 87.0 87.0 Rough : 32.2 44.0 37.0 37.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 62.4 77.0 50.0 50.0 Use, total : 218.0 244.7 213.2 213.3 Ending stocks : 39.0 20.2 17.5 17.6 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.0 68.0 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.25 4.20 6.25- 6.75 6.50- 7.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.70 2.51 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,213 6,260 Beginning stocks : 11.6 26.8 11.8 10.8 Production : 167.6 157.2 145.0 144.7 Supply, total 7/ : 188.3 194.3 167.3 166.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.9 87.5 89.0 89.0 Exports 8/ : 73.7 96.0 68.0 68.0 Use, total : 161.6 183.5 157.0 157.0 Ending stocks : 26.8 10.8 10.3 9.0 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.62 0.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,733 7,729 Beginning stocks : 15.6 10.7 7.4 7.9 Production : 47.7 53.7 50.0 50.4 Supply, total 7/ : 67.1 69.1 61.9 63.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 35.6 36.2 37.2 37.2 Exports 8/ : 20.8 25.0 19.0 19.0 Use, total : 56.4 61.2 56.2 56.2 Ending stocks : 10.7 7.9 5.7 7.1 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. For June and July: Projected yield is derived from a simple linear trend fit by type of rice over 1990-2002 period. WASDE-401-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.1 73.8 73.7* 73.7 Harvested : 73.0 72.2 72.7* 72.6 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 39.6 37.8 39.7** 39.4 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 248 208 155 145 Production : 2,891 2,730 2,885 2,862 Imports : 2 4 4 4 Supply, total : 3,141 2,942 3,044 3,011 Crushings : 1,700 1,610 1,625 1,625 Exports : 1,064 1,040 990 1,000 Seed : 90 90 89 89 Residual : 80 57 _3/ 80 77 Use, total : 2,933 2,797 2,784 2,791 Ending stocks : 208 145 260 220 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.38 5.50 4.35- 5.35 4.55 - 5.55 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,767 2,358 1,455 1,504 Production : 18,898 18,340 18,315 18,315 Imports : 46 55 75 75 Supply, total : 21,711 20,754 19,845 19,894 Domestic : 16,833 17,000 17,400 17,250 Exports : 2,519 2,250 1,100 1,100 Use, total : 19,353 19,250 18,500 18,350 Ending stocks : 2,358 1,504 1,345 1,544 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 16.46 21.75 18.00- 18.00- : 21.00 21.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 383 240 250 250 Production : 40,292 37,920 38,625 38,625 Imports : 143 190 175 175 Supply, total : 40,819 38,350 39,050 39,050 Domestic : 33,070 32,050 32,800 32,700 Exports : 7,508 6,050 6,000 6,100 Use, total : 40,579 38,100 38,800 38,800 Ending stocks : 240 250 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.73 176.00 145.00- 155.00- : 175.00 180.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through June, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate a below-average residual. *Planted and harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage report. **Projected yield based on 1978-2001 regional trend analysis. WASDE-401-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :===================== : : Estimate : July August ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,281 1,603 1,602 Production 2/3/ : 7,907 8,402 8,495 8,885 Beet sugar : 3,915 4,416 4,450 4,659 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,992 3,986 4,045 4,226 Imports 2/ : 1,535 1,664 1,581 1,581 TRQ 5/ : 1,158 1,239 1,221 1,221 Other program 6/ : 296 400 325 325 Other 7/ : 81 25 35 35 Total supply : 11,622 11,347 11,679 12,068 : Exports 2/8/ : 137 135 150 150 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,085 9,810 10,050 10,060 Domestic food use : 9,897 9,600 9,850 9,850 Other 9/ : 188 210 200 210 Miscellaneous 10/ : 119 -200 0 0 Use, total : 10,341 9,745 10,200 10,210 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,281 1,602 1,479 1,858 : Stocks to use ratio : 12.4 16.4 14.5 18.2 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Production for 2002/03 and 2003/04 are based on processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Other projections are based on analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2002/03 (projected 2003/04): FL 2,127 (2,135); HI 288 (281); LA 1,382 (1,628); TX 189 (182); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2002/03, available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. For 2003/04, includes only the US commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus shortfall of 35,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-401-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.77 13.96 13.92 * 13.63 Harvested : 13.83 12.43 12.55 * 12.30 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 705 665 635 * 667 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 6.00 7.45 5.80 5.50 Production : 20.30 17.21 16.60 17.10 Imports : 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.05 Supply, total : 26.32 24.72 22.45 22.65 Domestic use : 7.70 7.30 6.80 6.60 Exports : 11.00 11.90 11.80 11.80 Use, total : 18.70 19.20 18.60 18.40 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.18 0.02 -0.05 -0.05 Ending stocks : 7.45 5.50 3.90 4.30 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 29.8 42.9 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2002/03 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-June. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. *For July, planted area reported in June 30 Acreage. Projected harvested area based on 1991-2002 average acreage abandonment by State, excluding the high and low years. Projected yield based on 1991-2002 average yield by State, excluding the high and low years. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2003/04 is 22.8 percent. WASDE-401-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 200.65 581.08 108.45 107.86 584.57 108.04 197.17 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.20 32.70 26.19 21.15 Total foreign : 176.81 527.82 105.52 102.66 551.87 81.85 176.02 Major exporters 4/ : 24.53 152.12 10.25 52.98 109.18 54.25 23.48 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.89 10.08 1.14 Australia : 4.54 24.85 0.08 2.70 5.43 16.41 7.63 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 3.69 7.76 16.27 6.53 EU-15 : 9.75 91.20 9.82 46.50 91.10 11.49 8.18 Major importers 5/ : 108.61 141.32 48.95 12.45 203.20 3.65 92.03 Brazil : 0.65 3.25 7.01 0.40 10.00 0.01 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.48 0.31 29.37 0.24 5.66 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.24 0.40 19.80 0.50 2.59 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.83 1.38 8.67 0.34 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.90 1.69 10.94 30.54 4.15 6.73 India : 21.50 69.68 0.03 0.50 64.20 3.09 23.93 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.33 3.56 20.46 69.31 13.81 17.14 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.63 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.48 Kazakhstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.09 3.00 13.44 5.49 2.96 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 197.17 563.04 105.30 113.06 596.13 103.46 164.07 United States : 21.15 43.99 2.11 3.23 30.65 23.21 13.38 Total foreign : 176.02 519.05 103.19 109.84 565.48 80.24 150.69 Major exporters 4/ : 23.48 140.70 12.86 59.09 115.83 39.00 22.20 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.18 6.00 2.27 Australia : 7.63 9.39 0.50 4.03 6.75 8.50 2.27 Canada : 6.53 15.69 0.35 3.70 7.80 9.00 5.77 EU-15 : 8.18 103.32 12.00 51.28 96.10 15.50 11.90 Major importers 5/ : 92.03 138.63 45.40 10.20 198.31 4.19 73.55 Brazil : 0.90 2.94 6.50 0.30 9.75 0.01 0.58 China : 76.59 90.29 0.50 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.46 N. Africa 6/ : 5.66 11.17 17.70 0.30 29.28 0.21 5.05 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.25 0.40 18.60 0.90 1.57 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 0.00 9.25 1.80 9.10 0.36 1.40 Selected other : East. Europe : 6.73 30.54 2.02 10.14 29.72 4.10 5.48 India : 23.93 71.81 0.03 0.60 73.30 4.50 17.96 FSU-12 8/ : 17.14 96.43 3.33 24.06 73.49 25.26 18.14 Russia : 6.48 50.55 0.30 16.00 39.10 13.00 5.23 Kazakhstan : 5.20 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 5.50 6.66 Ukraine : 2.96 20.55 0.75 4.00 14.50 6.60 3.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-401-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 164.11 560.30 95.98 103.99 584.12 98.92 140.29 August : 164.07 549.35 94.79 100.90 582.87 97.91 130.55 United States : July : 13.38 62.89 2.72 4.76 32.39 26.54 20.08 August : 13.38 62.37 2.45 4.76 32.11 28.58 17.51 Total foreign : July : 150.73 497.40 93.26 99.23 551.74 72.39 120.21 August : 150.69 486.98 92.34 96.14 550.76 69.34 113.04 Major exporters 4/ : July : 23.20 162.00 5.17 57.73 113.40 55.00 21.97 August : 22.20 154.00 4.27 55.38 112.48 51.00 16.99 Argentina Jul : 2.47 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.00 9.50 2.48 Aug : 2.27 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 9.50 2.00 Australia Jul : 2.27 23.00 0.01 3.50 6.20 16.50 2.58 Aug : 2.27 23.00 0.01 3.50 6.20 16.50 2.58 Canada Jul : 6.57 25.00 0.15 4.65 7.70 15.00 9.02 Aug : 5.77 22.00 0.25 3.80 8.00 14.50 5.52 EU-15 Jul : 11.90 99.50 5.00 49.50 94.50 14.00 7.90 Aug : 11.90 94.50 4.00 48.00 93.00 10.50 6.90 Major importers 5/ : July : 73.94 138.65 42.95 9.50 196.76 2.50 56.27 August : 73.55 140.24 40.65 9.50 196.71 2.50 55.24 Brazil Jul : 0.68 3.80 6.50 0.35 10.00 0.01 0.98 Aug : 0.58 4.30 6.00 0.35 9.95 0.01 0.93 China Jul : 60.53 87.00 1.50 6.00 104.50 0.80 43.73 Aug : 60.46 87.00 1.00 6.00 104.50 0.80 43.16 N. Africa 6/ Jul : 5.24 15.88 13.20 0.30 29.03 0.21 5.08 Aug : 5.05 15.98 12.90 0.30 29.08 0.21 4.64 Pakistan Jul : 1.57 18.20 0.50 0.40 18.75 0.20 1.32 Aug : 1.57 18.20 0.50 0.40 18.75 0.20 1.32 SE Asia 7/ Jul : 1.43 0.00 9.05 1.55 9.00 0.33 1.15 Aug : 1.40 0.00 9.05 1.55 8.95 0.33 1.17 Selected other : East. Europe Jul : 5.68 24.93 2.87 9.41 28.58 1.48 3.42 Aug : 5.48 22.20 4.10 8.67 27.68 1.33 2.77 India Jul : 17.96 67.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 2.00 14.01 Aug : 17.96 67.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 2.00 14.01 FSU-12 8/ Jul : 16.64 62.18 5.39 17.38 65.12 8.16 10.93 Aug : 18.14 60.98 6.24 17.38 65.12 9.31 10.93 Russia Jul : 3.73 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 2.00 1.23 Aug : 5.23 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 1.23 Kazakhstan Jul : 6.66 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 5.50 6.58 Aug : 6.66 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 5.50 6.58 Ukraine Jul : 3.16 6.00 1.50 0.73 9.73 0.50 0.44 Aug : 3.16 5.00 2.20 0.73 9.73 0.20 0.44 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-401-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 188.08 892.31 101.44 597.55 904.63 103.50 175.76 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 158.57 216.92 55.15 45.05 Total foreign : 135.38 630.45 98.88 438.98 687.71 48.36 130.71 Major exporters 4/ : 7.41 64.34 5.32 35.88 48.58 19.91 8.59 Argentina : 1.27 18.72 0.00 5.47 7.63 11.32 1.05 Australia : 1.31 12.56 0.05 5.50 6.77 4.94 2.21 Canada : 4.33 22.60 4.11 20.85 25.16 2.52 3.37 Major importers 5/ : 29.26 159.47 68.34 161.84 218.73 5.53 32.82 EU-15 : 17.37 106.67 4.24 78.03 103.24 5.04 20.00 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.95 15.52 20.15 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.58 27.17 9.06 19.23 35.27 0.05 4.49 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.22 3.82 13.55 18.96 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.45 8.85 6.74 9.35 0.00 1.17 Selected other : China : 81.66 122.27 1.96 94.21 133.08 8.63 64.19 East. Europe : 2.65 51.02 1.53 36.61 46.71 3.89 4.61 FSU-12 6/ : 5.93 62.35 1.00 33.71 51.39 6.63 11.26 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.74 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.74 Ukraine : 1.93 17.03 0.10 9.04 12.97 3.49 2.61 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 175.76 867.94 99.05 590.51 901.65 102.47 142.06 United States : 45.05 245.04 2.58 152.97 217.84 45.92 28.91 Total foreign : 130.71 622.90 96.47 437.54 683.80 56.56 113.15 Major exporters 4/ : 8.59 53.94 4.43 30.11 42.86 17.72 6.38 Argentina : 1.05 19.44 0.03 4.39 6.53 12.75 1.24 Australia : 2.21 5.30 0.01 3.36 4.64 2.30 0.58 Canada : 3.37 19.59 3.98 18.04 22.43 1.65 2.85 Major importers 5/ : 32.82 157.17 67.63 159.78 217.45 6.44 33.73 EU-15 : 20.00 106.13 4.12 76.42 102.19 6.17 21.89 Japan : 2.34 0.22 19.29 15.16 19.79 0.00 2.06 Mexico : 4.49 25.77 9.02 19.21 35.24 0.05 3.98 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.97 4.11 13.72 19.03 0.22 0.88 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 9.18 6.78 9.45 0.00 1.28 Selected other : China : 64.19 129.15 1.92 95.03 136.27 13.58 45.41 East. Europe : 4.61 50.31 1.29 38.92 48.98 3.07 4.17 FSU-12 6/ : 11.26 60.76 0.66 35.16 52.85 8.15 11.68 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.25 18.45 29.85 3.42 7.12 Ukraine : 2.61 17.10 0.22 9.28 13.27 4.06 2.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-401-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 140.97 907.64 100.44 602.51 924.95 101.30 123.67 August : 142.06 890.27 99.54 600.98 920.58 99.20 111.74 United States : July : 28.91 283.58 2.67 152.68 222.64 54.03 38.49 August : 28.91 275.58 2.65 152.27 221.47 51.64 34.04 Total foreign : July : 112.06 624.07 97.77 449.83 702.31 47.27 85.17 August : 113.15 614.68 96.89 448.71 699.11 47.57 77.71 Major exporters 4/ : July : 6.41 67.80 2.49 34.74 47.98 20.76 7.96 August : 6.38 66.55 2.54 34.58 47.82 20.82 6.83 Argentina Jul : 1.23 19.95 0.01 5.08 7.24 12.72 1.24 Aug : 1.24 19.95 0.01 5.08 7.24 12.72 1.24 Australia Jul : 0.62 10.26 0.00 5.11 6.61 3.35 0.92 Aug : 0.58 10.26 0.00 5.11 6.61 3.35 0.88 Canada Jul : 2.85 28.18 2.06 20.24 24.89 3.67 4.53 Aug : 2.85 26.98 2.06 20.09 24.74 3.73 3.43 Major importers 5/ : July : 33.85 160.08 69.72 164.31 223.68 7.77 32.21 August : 33.73 152.49 69.03 162.60 221.32 6.97 26.97 EU-15 Jul : 22.44 106.65 3.51 77.60 104.73 7.62 20.26 Aug : 21.89 98.70 4.26 77.20 103.68 6.82 14.36 Japan Jul : 2.06 0.25 18.74 14.21 19.04 0.00 2.02 Aug : 2.06 0.25 18.69 14.16 18.99 0.00 2.02 Mexico Jul : 3.45 25.45 11.63 21.56 37.60 0.05 2.88 Aug : 3.98 25.45 10.63 20.56 36.60 0.05 3.41 Southeast Asia Jul : 0.88 15.85 4.16 14.30 19.68 0.10 1.11 Aug : 0.88 15.65 4.31 14.30 19.68 0.10 1.06 South Korea Jul : 1.28 0.38 9.86 7.56 10.23 0.00 1.28 Aug : 1.28 0.38 9.66 7.36 10.03 0.00 1.28 Selected other : China Jul : 45.43 125.30 2.31 95.06 137.71 8.03 27.31 Aug : 45.41 125.30 2.31 95.06 137.71 8.53 26.78 East. Europe Jul : 4.21 48.21 1.60 37.83 47.99 2.74 3.29 Aug : 4.17 45.66 1.85 36.97 46.92 2.06 2.70 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 11.78 52.52 1.22 38.30 56.07 4.57 4.89 Aug : 11.68 52.52 1.22 38.30 56.04 4.77 4.62 Russia Jul : 7.19 28.20 0.80 20.35 31.95 2.20 2.04 Aug : 7.12 28.20 0.80 20.35 31.95 2.40 1.77 Ukraine Jul : 2.62 15.30 0.22 10.85 14.80 1.84 1.51 Aug : 2.59 15.30 0.22 10.85 14.77 1.84 1.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-401-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 152.12 599.01 74.48 433.57 622.08 75.99 129.05 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.26 148.87 201.05 48.38 40.55 Total foreign : 103.88 357.53 74.22 284.71 421.03 27.61 88.50 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 24.75 0.93 6.50 12.60 11.87 2.33 Argentina : 0.64 14.70 0.00 2.65 4.15 10.80 0.39 South Africa : 0.49 10.05 0.92 3.85 8.45 1.07 1.94 Major importers 5/ : 12.20 81.44 45.39 87.25 125.90 0.55 12.57 EU-15 : 3.74 39.69 2.91 32.80 42.40 0.06 3.87 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.68 20.40 4.08 8.40 23.60 0.05 3.51 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.07 3.82 13.42 18.82 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.62 6.58 8.74 0.00 1.17 Selected other : Brazil : 1.65 35.50 0.43 30.50 34.50 2.05 1.02 Canada : 0.88 8.39 3.95 9.67 11.97 0.20 1.06 China : 81.19 114.09 0.04 92.00 123.30 8.61 63.40 East. Europe : 1.50 26.75 1.07 20.64 24.12 3.01 2.18 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.81 0.65 5.70 7.04 0.37 1.46 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.53 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.08 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 129.05 601.05 74.44 434.46 632.00 77.13 98.10 United States : 40.55 228.80 0.38 144.79 203.46 40.64 25.63 Total foreign : 88.50 372.24 74.06 289.67 428.53 36.49 72.47 Major exporters 4/ : 2.33 24.70 0.27 5.90 12.00 13.00 2.30 Argentina : 0.39 15.50 0.02 1.80 3.30 12.00 0.60 South Africa : 1.94 9.20 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.69 Major importers 5/ : 12.57 78.91 47.11 87.79 126.46 0.47 11.67 EU-15 : 3.87 39.44 3.00 32.60 42.20 0.20 3.91 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.00 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.19 Mexico : 3.51 18.80 5.50 9.50 24.70 0.05 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.67 4.11 13.44 18.74 0.22 0.88 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 9.00 6.70 8.97 0.00 1.28 Selected other : Brazil : 1.02 45.00 0.30 32.50 36.50 5.50 4.32 Canada : 1.06 9.07 3.70 9.92 12.22 0.40 1.20 China : 63.40 121.30 0.01 93.00 126.50 13.50 44.71 East. Europe : 2.18 27.29 0.68 22.15 25.68 2.15 2.33 FSU-12 6/ : 1.46 8.42 0.23 6.32 7.69 0.89 1.53 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.00 0.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-401-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 96.82 625.61 74.81 433.63 636.92 74.99 85.51 August : 98.10 614.56 75.21 433.05 634.01 74.49 78.66 United States : July : 25.63 260.87 0.25 142.25 205.75 46.99 34.01 August : 25.63 255.65 0.25 142.88 205.75 45.72 30.06 Total foreign : July : 71.18 364.75 74.56 291.38 431.17 28.00 51.50 August : 72.47 358.92 74.96 290.17 428.26 28.77 48.59 Major exporters 4/ : July : 2.30 25.00 0.26 6.60 12.70 13.00 1.86 August : 2.30 25.00 0.26 6.60 12.70 13.00 1.86 Argentina Jul : 0.61 16.00 0.01 2.50 4.00 12.00 0.62 Aug : 0.60 16.00 0.01 2.50 4.00 12.00 0.61 South Africa Jul : 1.69 9.00 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.24 Aug : 1.69 9.00 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.24 Major importers 5/ : July : 11.75 80.59 48.16 88.28 127.87 0.35 12.28 August : 11.67 74.89 48.81 85.78 124.77 0.35 10.25 EU-15 Jul : 4.51 40.00 3.00 32.00 42.20 0.20 5.11 Aug : 3.91 34.50 3.50 29.50 39.10 0.20 2.61 Japan Jul : 1.19 0.00 15.50 11.00 15.50 0.00 1.20 Aug : 1.19 0.00 15.50 11.00 15.50 0.00 1.20 Mexico Jul : 2.54 19.00 6.50 10.50 25.70 0.05 2.29 Aug : 3.06 19.00 6.50 10.50 25.70 0.05 2.81 Southeast Asia Jul : 0.88 15.57 4.16 14.03 19.40 0.10 1.11 Aug : 0.88 15.37 4.31 14.03 19.40 0.10 1.06 South Korea Jul : 1.28 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.28 Aug : 1.28 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.28 Selected other : Brazil Jul : 3.82 37.50 0.30 33.00 37.00 2.00 2.62 Aug : 4.32 37.50 0.30 33.00 37.00 3.00 2.12 Canada Jul : 1.20 9.20 2.00 8.60 11.10 0.30 1.00 Aug : 1.20 9.20 2.00 8.60 11.10 0.30 1.00 China Jul : 44.71 118.00 0.10 93.00 128.10 8.00 26.71 Aug : 44.71 118.00 0.10 93.00 128.10 8.50 26.21 East. Europe Jul : 2.20 27.24 0.78 22.06 25.78 2.43 2.02 Aug : 2.33 25.11 0.93 21.64 25.17 1.68 1.53 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 1.53 9.25 0.70 7.40 8.87 1.33 1.28 Aug : 1.53 9.25 0.70 7.40 8.87 1.33 1.28 Russia Jul : 0.13 1.20 0.60 1.40 1.80 0.00 0.13 Aug : 0.13 1.20 0.60 1.40 1.80 0.00 0.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-401-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 3/ : 148.03 398.61 25.75 410.26 27.03 136.37 United States : 0.89 6.74 0.42 3.87 2.96 1.22 Total foreign : 147.14 391.87 25.33 406.40 24.07 135.15 Major exporters 4/ : 28.34 135.50 0.06 117.17 18.42 28.31 India : 25.05 93.08 0.00 87.35 6.30 24.48 Pakistan : 0.48 3.88 0.00 2.65 1.63 0.09 Thailand : 1.90 17.50 0.02 9.77 7.25 2.40 Vietnam : 0.91 21.04 0.04 17.40 3.25 1.34 Major importers 5/ : 12.85 54.36 12.23 65.70 0.42 13.32 Brazil : 1.17 7.12 0.63 8.08 0.03 0.82 EU-15 : 0.89 1.62 0.92 2.22 0.34 0.88 Indonesia : 4.61 33.09 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.84 Nigeria : 1.02 2.10 1.91 3.55 0.00 1.48 Philippines : 2.80 8.45 1.20 8.90 0.00 3.55 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 2.13 1.40 3.20 5.18 0.06 1.50 Selected other : Burma : 1.38 10.44 0.00 9.90 1.00 0.92 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.07 0.09 0.38 0.44 0.00 0.10 China : 94.10 124.31 0.31 134.58 1.96 82.17 Egypt : 0.89 3.58 0.03 3.15 0.47 0.86 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.66 9.00 0.05 1.52 Mexico : 0.16 0.19 0.54 0.68 0.00 0.20 South Korea : 1.74 5.52 0.12 5.10 0.13 2.14 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 3/ : 136.37 379.63 26.02 409.52 27.74 106.49 United States : 1.22 6.51 0.48 3.85 3.73 0.62 Total foreign : 135.15 373.13 25.54 405.67 24.01 105.87 Major exporters 4/ : 28.31 118.31 0.04 112.82 17.50 16.34 India : 24.48 75.70 0.00 82.68 4.25 13.25 Pakistan : 0.09 4.23 0.00 2.67 1.50 0.15 Thailand : 2.40 17.12 0.00 9.92 7.75 1.85 Vietnam : 1.34 21.26 0.04 17.55 4.00 1.09 Major importers 5/ : 13.32 55.14 12.12 67.31 0.57 12.69 Brazil : 0.82 7.25 1.10 8.10 0.03 1.04 EU-15 : 0.88 1.71 0.89 2.23 0.49 0.76 Indonesia : 4.84 33.20 3.50 36.79 0.00 4.75 Nigeria : 1.48 2.20 1.82 3.85 0.00 1.65 Philippines : 3.55 8.45 1.00 9.55 0.00 3.45 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 1.50 1.88 2.79 5.30 0.06 0.81 Selected other : Burma : 0.92 10.44 0.00 10.10 0.50 0.76 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 China : 82.17 122.18 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.60 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.70 0.64 Japan : 1.52 8.09 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.13 Mexico : 0.20 0.10 0.48 0.70 0.00 0.08 South Korea : 2.14 4.93 0.15 5.20 0.67 1.34 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-401-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 106.63 394.08 25.13 412.17 25.38 88.55 August : 106.49 390.58 25.01 411.96 25.63 85.11 United States : July : 0.64 6.10 0.48 3.95 2.72 0.55 August : 0.62 6.11 0.49 3.95 2.72 0.55 Total foreign : July : 105.99 387.98 24.66 408.22 22.66 88.00 August : 105.87 384.48 24.52 408.01 22.91 84.56 Major exporters 4/ : July : 16.51 134.30 0.04 115.70 16.80 18.35 August : 16.34 133.30 0.04 115.70 17.05 16.93 India Jul : 13.34 91.00 0.00 85.25 3.25 15.84 Aug : 13.25 90.00 0.00 85.25 3.25 14.75 Pakistan Jul : 0.15 4.50 0.00 2.75 1.55 0.35 Aug : 0.15 4.50 0.00 2.75 1.55 0.35 Thailand Jul : 2.10 17.80 0.00 10.00 8.00 1.90 Aug : 1.85 17.80 0.00 10.00 8.25 1.40 Vietnam Jul : 0.92 21.00 0.04 17.70 4.00 0.26 Aug : 1.09 21.00 0.04 17.70 4.00 0.43 Major importers 5/ : July : 12.69 54.88 11.78 67.88 0.51 10.96 August : 12.69 55.08 11.68 67.88 0.51 11.06 Brazil Jul : 1.04 7.00 0.75 8.13 0.00 0.67 Aug : 1.04 7.30 0.65 8.13 0.00 0.87 EU-15 Jul : 0.76 1.63 0.90 2.23 0.45 0.61 Aug : 0.76 1.63 0.90 2.23 0.45 0.61 Indonesia Jul : 4.75 33.30 3.50 36.95 0.00 4.60 Aug : 4.75 33.30 3.50 36.95 0.00 4.60 Nigeria Jul : 1.65 2.30 1.25 4.00 0.00 1.20 Aug : 1.65 2.30 1.25 4.00 0.00 1.20 Philippines Jul : 3.45 8.60 0.80 9.70 0.00 3.15 Aug : 3.45 8.50 0.80 9.70 0.00 3.05 Sel. Mideast 6/Jul : 0.81 1.60 3.55 5.35 0.06 0.55 Aug : 0.81 1.60 3.55 5.35 0.06 0.55 Selected other : Burma Jul : 0.76 10.44 0.00 10.20 0.50 0.50 Aug : 0.76 10.44 0.00 10.20 0.50 0.50 C. Am & Car. 7/Jul : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 Aug : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 China Jul : 67.60 120.00 0.30 135.00 2.50 50.40 Aug : 67.60 118.00 0.30 135.00 2.50 48.40 Egypt Jul : 0.74 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.64 Aug : 0.64 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.54 Japan Jul : 1.13 8.00 0.70 8.66 0.20 0.97 Aug : 1.13 7.80 0.70 8.66 0.20 0.77 Mexico Jul : 0.08 0.11 0.63 0.73 0.00 0.09 Aug : 0.08 0.11 0.63 0.73 0.00 0.09 South Korea Jul : 1.34 5.00 0.20 5.28 0.00 1.27 Aug : 1.34 5.00 0.16 5.28 0.00 1.23 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-401-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World : 42.65 98.46 29.62 94.38 29.05 0.11 47.19 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.70 11.00 0.18 7.45 Total foreign : 36.65 78.16 29.59 86.68 18.05 -0.07 39.74 Major exporters 4/ : 8.78 27.63 1.40 12.65 14.14 -0.09 11.12 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.02 4.15 0.27 0.91 3.78 -0.14 2.90 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.10 -0.16 2.21 Major importers : 26.10 47.45 23.39 67.63 2.64 0.02 26.65 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.80 0.67 -0.15 2.42 India : 3.77 12.30 1.95 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.69 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 2.06 2.20 0.09 0.03 0.72 China : 14.35 24.40 0.45 26.00 0.34 0.00 12.86 Europe : 1.58 2.62 4.37 5.38 1.30 0.07 1.82 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.85 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.78 0.21 9.59 8.98 0.05 0.08 2.48 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 Thailand : 0.39 0.10 2.06 1.90 0.00 0.03 0.62 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World : 47.19 87.99 30.86 97.77 30.54 0.11 37.62 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.30 11.90 0.02 5.50 Total foreign : 39.74 70.78 30.80 90.47 18.64 0.09 32.12 Major exporters 4/ : 11.12 24.05 1.48 13.98 14.14 0.01 8.51 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.20 0.25 0.03 2.44 Central Asia 5/ : 1.94 6.83 3/ 1.87 5.23 0.00 1.67 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 3.98 3/ 0.21 3.76 0.05 1.44 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.90 2.72 0.56 1.15 3.16 -0.08 1.95 Australia : 2.21 1.70 3/ 0.13 2.60 -0.10 1.29 Major importers : 26.65 43.68 24.39 70.05 3.04 0.07 21.56 Brazil : 2.42 3.80 0.58 3.50 0.48 -0.10 2.92 India : 4.69 10.60 1.40 13.30 0.05 0.00 3.34 Mexico : 0.72 0.19 2.30 2.20 0.05 0.03 0.94 China : 12.86 22.60 3.20 28.90 0.75 0.00 9.01 Europe : 1.82 2.19 4.21 5.17 1.54 0.07 1.44 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.13 2.10 6.30 0.13 0.00 1.26 Selected Asia 8/ : 2.48 0.16 8.91 8.98 0.05 0.08 2.44 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.38 Thailand : 0.62 0.07 1.95 2.00 0.01 0.03 0.61 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-401-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World : July : 36.96 94.84 30.27 99.14 29.98 -0.01 32.96 August : 37.62 95.38 30.46 99.16 30.01 -0.01 34.29 United States : July : 5.80 16.60 0.05 6.80 11.80 -0.05 3.90 August : 5.50 17.10 0.05 6.60 11.80 -0.05 4.30 Total foreign : July : 31.16 78.24 30.22 92.34 18.18 0.04 29.06 August : 32.12 78.27 30.41 92.56 18.21 0.04 29.99 Major exporters 4/ : July : 8.28 25.16 1.78 14.20 13.43 -0.04 7.63 August : 8.51 24.99 1.78 14.19 13.43 -0.04 7.70 Pakistan Jul : 2.44 8.50 0.90 9.40 0.10 0.03 2.31 Aug : 2.44 8.50 0.90 9.40 0.10 0.03 2.31 Central Asia 5/Jul : 1.67 6.67 0.01 1.88 5.01 0.00 1.46 Aug : 1.67 6.67 0.01 1.88 5.01 0.00 1.46 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jul : 1.44 4.29 3/ 0.20 4.29 0.00 1.24 Aug : 1.44 4.32 3/ 0.20 4.26 0.00 1.29 S. Hemis 7/ Jul : 1.72 3.10 0.38 1.16 2.38 -0.08 1.73 Aug : 1.95 2.90 0.38 1.14 2.43 -0.08 1.73 Australia Jul : 1.09 1.50 3/ 0.12 1.60 -0.10 0.97 Aug : 1.29 1.30 3/ 0.12 1.65 -0.10 0.92 Major importers Jul : 20.89 49.79 23.58 71.64 3.09 0.07 19.47 Aug : 21.56 50.09 23.71 71.89 3.07 0.07 20.34 Brazil Jul : 2.92 4.25 0.30 3.70 1.00 -0.10 2.86 Aug : 2.92 4.25 0.30 3.70 1.00 -0.10 2.86 India Jul : 3.24 11.70 1.80 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.09 Aug : 3.34 12.00 1.70 13.50 0.05 0.00 3.49 Mexico Jul : 0.79 0.30 1.85 2.25 0.07 0.03 0.60 Aug : 0.94 0.30 1.75 2.20 0.10 0.03 0.67 China Jul : 8.61 27.00 2.60 29.70 0.25 0.00 8.26 Aug : 9.01 27.00 3.00 30.20 0.25 0.00 8.56 Europe Jul : 1.44 2.17 4.06 4.97 1.46 0.07 1.18 Aug : 1.44 2.17 4.08 4.97 1.40 0.07 1.26 Russia Jul : 0.22 3/ 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.22 Aug : 0.22 3/ 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Jul : 1.26 4.20 2.35 6.45 0.20 0.00 1.16 Aug : 1.26 4.20 2.40 6.45 0.20 0.00 1.21 Sel. Asia 8/ Jul : 2.42 0.17 8.93 9.28 0.06 0.08 2.10 Aug : 2.44 0.17 8.78 9.18 0.06 0.08 2.07 Indonesia Jul : 0.38 0.04 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.34 Aug : 0.38 0.04 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.34 Thailand Jul : 0.65 0.07 1.90 2.10 0.01 0.03 0.49 Aug : 0.61 0.07 1.95 2.10 0.01 0.03 0.49 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-401-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 30.58 184.42 54.35 158.04 183.97 53.36 32.01 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.87 28.95 5.66 Total foreign : 23.84 105.75 54.29 111.78 133.11 24.42 26.35 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.60 1.40 46.41 49.96 23.12 21.25 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.30 20.86 22.06 6.00 10.16 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.91 15.00 11.07 Major importers 4/ : 6.78 18.12 42.29 48.65 62.54 0.39 4.26 China : 4.91 15.41 10.38 20.40 28.31 0.30 2.10 EU-15 : 0.85 1.23 18.30 17.34 19.23 0.06 1.08 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.88 5.21 0.00 0.67 Mexico : 0.18 0.07 4.51 4.61 4.66 0.00 0.10 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 32.01 195.81 62.57 166.21 192.31 62.59 35.49 United States : 5.66 74.29 0.11 43.82 47.81 28.30 3.94 Total foreign : 26.35 121.52 62.46 122.40 144.50 34.29 31.54 Major exporters 3/ : 21.25 91.90 1.50 53.18 57.20 32.65 24.80 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.40 24.11 25.43 9.65 10.98 Brazil : 11.07 52.50 1.10 28.07 30.66 20.20 13.81 Major importers 4/ : 4.26 18.71 50.45 53.18 67.30 0.36 5.76 China : 2.10 16.51 18.20 24.76 32.94 0.27 3.60 EU-15 : 1.08 0.81 17.64 16.68 18.41 0.06 1.06 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.15 4.08 5.38 0.00 0.70 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.85 4.90 4.94 0.00 0.10 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 34.88 207.53 64.10 175.08 202.96 63.76 39.80 August : 35.49 206.99 64.63 175.72 203.74 64.39 38.98 United States : July : 4.22 78.52 0.11 44.22 48.84 26.94 7.07 August : 3.94 77.89 0.11 44.22 48.76 27.22 5.98 Total foreign : July : 30.66 129.02 63.99 130.85 154.12 36.81 32.73 August : 31.54 129.10 64.52 131.49 154.98 37.18 33.00 Major exporters 3/ : July : 24.16 97.25 1.50 56.88 61.27 34.94 26.71 August : 24.80 97.25 1.50 56.88 61.27 35.30 26.99 Argentina Jul : 11.08 37.00 0.40 25.40 26.84 9.90 11.74 Aug : 10.98 37.00 0.40 25.40 26.84 10.00 11.54 Brazil Jul : 13.07 56.00 1.10 30.38 33.22 22.00 14.95 Aug : 13.81 56.00 1.10 30.38 33.22 22.27 15.42 Major importers 4/ : July : 5.51 18.78 51.64 56.17 70.79 0.39 4.73 August : 5.76 18.77 52.14 56.71 71.54 0.39 4.73 China Jul : 3.60 16.60 18.50 27.10 35.66 0.30 2.74 Aug : 3.60 16.60 18.50 27.10 35.66 0.30 2.74 EU-15 Jul : 0.81 0.85 18.30 17.34 19.05 0.06 0.85 Aug : 1.06 0.85 18.60 17.79 19.60 0.06 0.85 Japan Jul : 0.70 0.29 5.05 4.00 5.34 0.00 0.70 Aug : 0.70 0.28 5.15 4.00 5.43 0.00 0.70 Mexico Jul : 0.10 0.09 5.00 5.01 5.07 0.00 0.12 Aug : 0.10 0.09 5.00 5.01 5.07 0.00 0.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-401-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 3.75 125.32 43.65 126.41 42.27 4.04 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.00 6.81 0.22 Total foreign : 3.40 88.76 43.52 96.41 35.46 3.82 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.67 0.33 9.38 30.49 0.99 Argentina : 0.10 16.50 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.30 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 7.90 11.98 0.65 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.14 32.36 27.63 56.38 3.34 1.42 EU-15 : 0.62 13.91 19.54 30.92 2.27 0.87 China : 0.00 16.30 0.02 15.27 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.04 131.62 45.59 132.45 44.50 4.29 United States : 0.22 34.40 0.17 29.08 5.49 0.23 Total foreign : 3.82 97.22 45.42 103.38 39.02 4.07 Major exporters 3/ : 0.99 44.16 0.35 10.10 34.00 1.40 Argentina : 0.30 19.26 0.00 0.26 18.70 0.60 Brazil : 0.65 22.17 0.35 8.40 14.00 0.76 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.44 1.30 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.42 35.39 28.17 60.76 3.08 1.14 EU-15 : 0.87 13.42 19.74 31.14 2.26 0.63 China : 0.00 19.63 0.03 18.86 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 4.09 138.55 47.26 137.89 47.42 4.59 August : 4.29 139.06 48.01 138.69 48.01 4.66 United States : July : 0.23 35.04 0.16 29.76 5.44 0.23 August : 0.23 35.04 0.16 29.66 5.53 0.23 Total foreign : July : 3.86 103.51 47.10 108.13 41.97 4.36 August : 4.07 104.02 47.85 109.02 42.47 4.44 Major exporters 3/ : July : 1.20 47.75 0.36 10.98 36.83 1.50 August : 1.40 47.86 0.36 10.72 37.33 1.57 Argentina Jul : 0.40 20.09 0.00 0.27 19.73 0.49 Aug : 0.60 20.09 0.00 0.27 19.73 0.69 Brazil Jul : 0.76 23.99 0.36 8.80 15.40 0.91 Aug : 0.76 23.99 0.36 8.80 15.50 0.81 India Jul : 0.04 3.67 0.00 1.91 1.70 0.10 Aug : 0.04 3.78 0.00 1.64 2.10 0.07 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.13 37.53 28.69 63.02 3.10 1.23 August : 1.14 37.92 29.44 64.16 3.10 1.24 EU-15 Jul : 0.63 13.78 19.66 31.21 2.18 0.68 Aug : 0.63 14.15 20.31 32.23 2.18 0.68 China Jul : 0.00 21.49 0.00 20.59 0.90 0.00 Aug : 0.00 21.49 0.00 20.59 0.90 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-401-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 2.72 28.82 8.32 28.70 8.59 2.57 United States : 1.25 8.57 0.02 7.64 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.46 20.25 8.30 21.07 7.45 1.50 Major exporters 3/ : 0.47 11.70 0.17 5.24 6.60 0.50 Argentina : 0.10 3.88 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.13 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.10 1.78 0.18 EU-15 : 0.18 3.11 0.02 2.02 1.10 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.46 4.46 2.00 6.46 0.06 0.41 China : 0.28 3.58 0.37 3.96 0.06 0.21 India : 0.18 0.84 1.55 2.37 0.00 0.19 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.57 30.55 9.37 30.76 9.55 2.18 United States : 1.07 8.32 0.03 7.71 1.02 0.68 Total foreign : 1.50 22.23 9.35 23.05 8.53 1.50 Major exporters 3/ : 0.50 12.89 0.17 5.37 7.68 0.52 Argentina : 0.13 4.53 0.00 0.13 4.39 0.14 Brazil : 0.18 5.36 0.13 3.24 2.25 0.18 EU-15 : 0.20 3.00 0.04 2.01 1.03 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.00 3.10 7.92 0.06 0.53 China : 0.21 4.35 1.30 5.41 0.05 0.40 India : 0.19 0.62 1.70 2.38 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.14 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 1.96 31.99 9.63 32.02 9.64 1.92 August : 2.18 32.01 9.58 31.91 9.61 2.25 United States : July : 0.66 8.31 0.03 7.89 0.50 0.61 August : 0.68 8.31 0.03 7.82 0.50 0.70 Total foreign : July : 1.30 23.68 9.60 24.12 9.14 1.31 August : 1.50 23.70 9.54 24.09 9.11 1.55 Major exporters 3/ : July : 0.45 13.64 0.19 5.54 8.25 0.49 August : 0.52 13.64 0.19 5.58 8.22 0.54 Argentina Jul : 0.09 4.72 0.00 0.13 4.58 0.10 Aug : 0.14 4.72 0.00 0.13 4.58 0.15 Brazil Jul : 0.16 5.80 0.15 3.30 2.62 0.18 Aug : 0.18 5.80 0.15 3.34 2.60 0.18 EU-15 Jul : 0.20 3.11 0.04 2.10 1.04 0.21 Aug : 0.20 3.11 0.04 2.10 1.04 0.21 Major importers 4/ : July : 0.41 5.62 2.86 8.42 0.05 0.41 August : 0.53 5.63 2.86 8.38 0.05 0.58 China Jul : 0.40 4.74 1.15 5.84 0.05 0.40 Aug : 0.40 4.74 1.15 5.84 0.05 0.40 India Jul : 0.00 0.84 1.60 2.44 0.00 0.00 Aug : 0.13 0.85 1.60 2.40 0.00 0.18 Pakistan Jul : 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.01 Aug : 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-401-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2002 : III : 7097 4832 12030 8251 1412 9807 21837 1821 41.8 IV : 6783 5255 12148 7936 1482 9552 21700 1835 41.6 Annual : 27090 19664 47169 32240 5713 38500 85669 7221 169.8 : 2003 : I : 6287 4889 11275 7770 1379 9275 20550 1776 42.9 II : 6907 4734 11738 8225 1437 9795 21533 1788 43.9 III*: 6925 4750 11769 8275 1400 9805 21574 1825 41.6 IV*: 6125 5160 11383 8100 1475 9700 21083 1850 41.8 Annual : Jul Proj : 26397 19509 46296 32420 5679 38615 84911 7241 170.4 Aug Proj : 26244 19533 46165 32371 5691 38575 84740 7239 170.2 : 2004 : I*: 6000 4850 10949 7900 1375 9405 20354 1785 43.6 II*: 6550 4700 11344 8325 1450 9915 21259 1805 44.4 Annual : Jul Proj : 25675 19450 45510 32725 5775 39030 84540 7300 172.8 Aug Proj : 25350 19450 45181 32725 5775 39030 84211 7300 172.1 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2002 : III : 63.29 33.86 56.4 66.7 65.3 11.33 IV : 69.10 31.34 53.7 68.2 75.5 11.97 Annual : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.11 : 2003 : I : 77.82 35.38 60.3 61.1 77.2 11.37 II : 78.49 42.64 59.6 60.6 73.9 11.07 III*: 75-77 41-43 61-63 62-64 76-78 12.80-13.10 IV*: 75-79 38-40 58-62 66-70 78-82 13.20-13.80 Annual : Jul Proj : 75-77 39-40 59-61 63-65 75-78 11.60-11.90 Aug Proj : 76-78 39-40 60-61 62-64 76-78 12.10-12.30 : 2004 : I*: 75-81 39-43 57-61 59-63 74-80 11.25-12.15 II*: 79-85 41-45 59-63 61-67 69-75 10.75-11.75 Annual : Jul Proj : 77-83 41-44 58-63 64-69 74-80 11.15-12.15 Aug Proj : 77-84 41-44 58-63 64-69 74-80 11.40-12.40 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-401-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2002 : 606 27192 3218 31016 2447 691 27878 67.6 2003 Proj. Jul : 691 26502 3155 30348 2445 525 27378 65.7 Aug : 691 26349 2940 29980 2505 525 26950 64.7 2004 Proj. Jul : 525 25780 3425 29730 2550 600 26580 63.2 Aug : 525 25455 3530 29510 2550 600 26360 62.6 : PORK : 2002 : 536 19685 1070 21291 1611 533 19147 51.5 2003 Proj. Jul : 533 19531 1204 21268 1668 540 19060 50.7 Aug : 533 19555 1204 21292 1668 540 19084 50.8 2004 Proj. Jul : 540 19472 1255 21267 1695 540 19032 50.1 Aug : 540 19472 1255 21267 1695 540 19032 50.1 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2002 : 1160 47305 4450 52915 4065 1238 47612 120.9 2003 Proj. Jul : 1238 46437 4525 52200 4118 1079 47003 118.1 Aug : 1238 46306 4311 51855 4178 1079 46598 117.2 2004 Proj. Jul : 1079 45651 4847 51577 4250 1154 46173 114.9 Aug : 1079 45322 4956 51357 4250 1154 45953 114.4 : BROILERS : 2002 : 712 31895 12 32619 4807 763 27049 80.5 2003 Proj. Jul : 763 32073 12 32848 4875 700 27273 80.3 Aug : 763 32025 12 32799 4875 700 27224 80.2 2004 Proj. Jul : 700 32375 12 33087 5200 650 27237 79.4 Aug : 700 32375 12 33087 5200 650 27237 79.4 : TURKEYS : 2002 : 241 5638 1 5879 439 333 5108 17.7 2003 Proj. Jul : 333 5605 1 5939 428 350 5160 17.7 Aug : 333 5616 1 5950 428 350 5172 17.7 2004 Proj. Jul : 350 5699 1 6050 445 350 5254 17.8 Aug : 350 5699 1 6050 445 350 5254 17.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2002 : 960 38079 16 39056 5380 1101 32575 99.6 2003 Proj. Jul : 1101 38193 17 39311 5413 1056 32841 99.4 Aug : 1101 38153 16 39271 5413 1056 32801 99.3 2004 Proj. Jul : 1056 38604 17 39677 5755 1008 32913 98.7 Aug : 1056 38604 17 39677 5755 1008 32913 98.7 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2002 : 2120 85384 4466 91971 9445 2339 80187 220.5 2003 Proj. Jul : 2339 84630 4542 91511 9531 2135 79844 217.5 Aug : 2339 84459 4327 91126 9591 2135 79399 216.5 2004 Proj. Jul : 2135 84255 4864 91254 10005 2162 79086 213.6 Aug : 2135 83926 4973 91034 10005 2162 78866 213.1 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-401-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2003 Projected : 2004 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2001 : 2002 : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 12.0 12.0 Production : 7155.0 7221.0 7241.0 7239.0 7300.0 7300.0 Imports : 8.9 15.0 12.9 12.9 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7175.2 7246.4 7264.2 7262.2 7324.0 7324.0 : Use : Exports : 190.0 174.0 169.0 165.0 173.0 173.0 Hatching use : 964.2 961.3 961.2 961.3 980.0 980.0 Ending stocks : 10.4 10.3 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 6010.6 6100.8 6122.0 6123.9 6159.0 6159.0 Per capita (number) : 252.6 253.6 251.9 252.0 250.9 250.9 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Proj 1/: 2003/04 Proj 1/ Commodity :2000/01:2001/02:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 8.9 8.8 11.2 11.2 11.7 11.6 Production : 165.2 169.2 170.0 170.0 172.4 171.8 Farm use : 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 164.0 168.0 169.0 168.9 171.4 170.8 Imports 2/ : 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.3 182.0 185.4 185.2 188.1 187.4 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 169.2 170.4 172.4 172.5 177.3 177.0 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.7 11.6 9.8 9.7 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 6.3 9.6 8.7 9.0 6.1 5.6 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 12.29 11.03 10.15- 10.50- 9.75- 10.25- : 10.25 10.60 10.65 11.15 : Class IV : 13.88 11.22 9.95- 10.00- 9.55- 9.65- : 10.15 10.20 10.65 10.75 : All milk 5/ : 14.51 12.74 11.60- 11.80- 11.15- 11.60- : 11.70 11.90 12.05 12.50 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 0 0 30 25 30 20 Cheese : 17 9 50 47 30 15 Nonfat dry milk : 525 817 705 730 500 465 Dry whole milk : 3 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-401-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 22-year record of the differences between the August projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the August projection and the final estimate have averaged 12.0 million tons (2.2%) ranging from -32.1 to 19.5 million tons. The August projection has been below the estimate 12 times and above 10 times. Reliability of August Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.2 12.0 -32.1 19.5 12 10 U.S. : 1.9 1.2 -3.4 4.2 7 15 Foreign : 2.5 11.4 -31.1 17.8 12 10 Exports : World : 4.0 4.6 -12.0 10.2 13 9 U.S. : 8.7 2.9 -10.0 7.8 8 13 Foreign : 5.1 4.2 -11.3 7.2 14 8 Domestic use : World : 1.7 8.7 -23.4 15.4 11 11 U.S. : 6.5 2.0 -3.7 3.6 10 12 Foreign : 1.6 7.9 -21.1 14.5 12 10 Ending stocks : World : 8.8 11.5 -28.1 23.7 15 7 U.S. : 13.8 3.4 -11.1 12.6 13 9 Foreign : 9.4 9.6 -24.7 11.2 15 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.9 15.5 -45.9 32.7 15 7 U.S. : 4.9 10.5 -21.8 31.4 15 7 Foreign : 1.8 10.8 -28.8 20.0 11 11 Exports : World : 5.5 5.8 -10.9 17.4 14 8 U.S. : 15.0 7.9 -19.7 14.9 9 13 Foreign : 14.3 7.4 -15.4 14.2 13 9 Domestic use : World : 1.4 11.7 -29.4 24.3 9 13 U.S. : 3.9 7.0 -15.9 17.0 15 7 Foreign : 1.5 9.6 -20.2 23.3 12 10 Ending stocks : World : 13.4 17.7 -53.5 30.5 16 6 U.S. : 25.0 12.2 -43.5 22.1 11 11 Foreign : 13.2 10.4 -28.7 17.2 17 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.0 6.7 -24.4 3.5 15 7 U.S. : 5.0 0.3 -0.6 0.5 13 9 Foreign : 2.0 6.7 -24.7 3.8 16 6 Exports : World : 8.9 1.7 -6.8 0.9 14 8 U.S. : 8.3 0.2 -0.8 0.9 12 8 Foreign : 9.9 1.6 -6.7 0.8 15 7 Domestic use : World : 1.5 5.0 -23.5 3.5 17 5 U.S. : 6.5 0.2 -0.4 0.5 11 11 Foreign : 1.5 5.0 -24.0 3.7 16 6 Ending stocks : World : 11.3 4.6 -14.5 6.9 17 5 U.S. : 25.1 0.3 -0.4 1.0 11 10 Foreign : 12.0 4.6 -15.5 6.8 17 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-401-33 Reliability of August Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.1 4.0 -12.5 5.0 14 8 U.S. : 4.7 2.8 -6.4 6.3 10 12 Foreign : 6.5 4.3 -10.6 6.1 13 9 Exports : World : 6.1 2.1 -9.1 2.7 15 7 U.S. : 10.4 2.2 -5.7 5.5 12 10 Foreign : 19.2 2.2 -9.4 4.0 10 12 Domestic use : World : 3.3 4.2 -8.8 4.2 15 7 U.S. : 4.0 1.5 -3.9 3.5 15 7 Foreign : 4.2 3.6 -7.4 4.0 16 6 Ending stocks : World : 13.1 2.6 -12.0 5.5 11 11 U.S. : 36.8 2.6 -2.8 6.9 6 16 Foreign : 18.2 2.7 -12.0 3.3 14 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.4 2.8 -11.1 10.5 12 10 U.S. : 5.9 0.9 -1.9 3.9 12 9 Foreign : 3.8 2.6 -10.7 10.2 11 10 Exports : World : 4.8 1.2 -3.6 2.3 9 13 U.S. : 16.3 0.9 -2.1 2.0 12 10 Foreign : 6.0 1.1 -3.3 1.9 9 13 Mill use : World : 2.5 2.0 -7.1 3.3 9 13 U.S. : 6.8 0.6 -1.2 1.3 12 8 Foreign : 2.6 1.9 -6.4 4.0 10 12 Ending stocks : World : 13.2 4.6 -12.5 14.2 14 8 U.S. : 32.4 1.3 -2.4 3.1 8 14 Foreign : 13.3 4.0 -13.0 12.3 16 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2002/03 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 22 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-401-34 Reliability of United States August Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 5.3 381 -889 1079 14 8 Exports : 15.8 284 -750 546 8 14 Domestic use : 4.4 272 -553 510 15 7 Ending stocks : 29.0 430 -1674 740 11 11 : SORGHUM : Production : 6.7 42 -82 108 12 10 Exports : 16.8 40 -115 97 11 11 Domestic use : 10.7 45 -114 81 10 12 Ending stocks : 41.3 54 -201 133 9 13 : BARLEY : Production : 4.9 20 -63 67 8 14 Exports : 30.4 18 -82 38 11 9 Domestic use : 7.9 29 -47 82 10 11 Ending stocks : 15.5 27 -61 94 9 13 : OATS : Production : 7.6 18 -26 57 5 17 Exports : 73.2 2 -5 8 7 9 Domestic use : 4.5 16 -39 35 8 14 Ending stocks : 15.3 19 -40 37 10 12 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.1 1240 -2858 3592 15 7 Exports : 11.8 785 -2050 1800 10 12 Domestic use : 3.4 789 -1550 1909 16 6 Ending stocks : 31.9 74 -204 428 8 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.8 531 -1583 1173 12 10 Exports : 24.4 378 -1350 1219 9 12 Domestic use : 2.8 353 -1085 708 16 6 Ending stocks : 32.1 484 -941 1078 8 14 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 4.0 981 -566 2536 14 6 Pork : 2.4 389 -1315 1242 10 10 Broilers : 2.1 470 -1337 640 13 7 Turkeys : 2.3 96 -444 235 15 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.5 89 -111 188 13 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 1.9 -6.9 4.6 11 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2002/03 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 22 for crops and 20 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2002 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 2001/02 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ---- End of File ----