September 11, 1998 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1998/99 ending stocks are up 66 million bushels from last month because of a larger crop and reduced exports. Wheat production is forecast 16 million bushels above last month due to higher yields for spring wheat (including durum). Projected exports are down 50 million bushels from last month because of increased competition and smaller global imports. The projected price range is down 5 cents on the low end and 15 cents on the high end to $2.50 to $2.80 per bushel. Projected global production is down slightly from last month as reductions for Russia, Canada, and South Africa more than offset increases for Australia, Eastern Europe, and the United States. Reduced global import projections are tied to smaller imports for Iran and Chile. Larger purchases by South Korea, Mexico, South Africa, and Egypt are only partially offsetting. With a near-record wheat crop, projected exports for Australia are up 1 million tons from last month. However, expected Canadian exports are 500,000 tons below last month's forecast as the lower crop is partially offset by higher than expected carryin stocks. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 1998/99 U.S. ending stocks of corn are up 71 million bushels from last month as a larger crop more than offsets smaller forecast carryin stocks and larger exports. Forecast corn production of 9,738 million bushels is up 146 million bushels from last month because of higher forecast yields. Projected 1998/99 corn exports are up 25 million bushels from last month and a 50-million-bushel reduction in carryin stocks is due to larger forecast exports for 1997/98. The projected season-average price range is down 15 cents on each end to $1.80 to $2.20 per bushel. Global 1998/99 supply and use projections are down from last month. Global production is higher than last month because increases for the United States, Eastern Europe, the EU, Australia, and Thailand more than offset smaller crops in Argentina, Mexico, Russia, and Ukraine. Reduced corn export prospects for Argentina, because of the smaller crop, are largely offset by higher expected Eastern European exports. However, lower corn and sorghum crops in Mexico provide an opportunity for the United States to export more corn to Mexico. RICE: U.S. rice supplies for 1998/99 are projected larger this month because of an increase in both beginning stocks and production. Rice production is forecast at 181 million cwt, up over 3 million cwt from last month. NASS estimates average yield at 5,685 pounds per acre, up 109 pounds per acre from the August level. Beginning stocks for 1998/99 are raised 5 million cwt this month to 30 million cwt (rough equivalent basis) to reflect August 1 stocks estimated by NASS. Exports in 1998/99 are projected at 84 million cwt, up 4 million cwt from August because of larger supplies, particularly of long-grain rice, and more competitive prices. The projected 1998/99 price range is lowered 25 cents on each end to $9.00-$10.00 per cwt because of larger domestic supplies. Projected 1998/99 global rice production, consumption, and ending stocks are down from last month while exports are nearly unchanged. Global production for 1998/99 is projected at 379 million tons (milled basis), down 8 million tons from 1997/98. Heavy rains and flooding have reduced crop prospects in a number of Asian countries including Bangladesh, China, India, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea. Australia's 1998/99 rice crop is projected down because of a drop in planted area caused by reduced supplies of irrigation water. Because of severe flooding, China's 1998/99 rice crop is projected at 132 million tons, down 6 million from last month. WASDE-342-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 1,871.81 2,125.65 251.16 1,836.52 289.13 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,888.98 2,178.11 245.33 1,857.91 320.20 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 1,877.80 2,197.99 242.51 1,883.32 314.66 September : 1,869.31 2,189.51 239.29 1,877.64 311.86 Wheat : 1996/97 : 583.31 689.16 124.02 578.09 111.07 1997/98 (Est.) : 611.60 722.67 116.49 587.51 135.16 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 597.68 731.63 116.40 605.91 125.72 September : 596.20 731.36 115.64 603.69 127.67 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 908.31 1,006.17 106.98 879.27 126.90 1997/98 (Est.) : 892.00 1,018.89 104.56 886.66 132.23 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 893.85 1,027.97 104.81 888.79 139.18 September : 894.45 1,026.67 102.57 886.83 139.85 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 380.19 430.32 20.17 379.16 51.16 1997/98 (Est.) : 385.39 436.55 24.28 383.74 52.80 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 386.27 438.39 21.29 388.62 49.77 September : 378.67 431.47 21.07 387.13 44.34 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 335.20 366.45 81.27 245.23 39.95 1997/98 (Est.) : 340.03 385.82 76.77 248.23 60.81 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 343.25 410.85 79.51 256.23 75.12 September : 347.48 413.85 78.91 256.23 78.71 Wheat : 1996/97 : 62.19 74.94 27.25 35.61 12.07 1997/98 (Est.) : 68.76 83.41 28.31 35.42 19.69 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 69.37 91.50 30.62 38.59 22.30 September : 69.80 91.94 29.26 38.59 24.09 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 267.56 284.93 51.52 206.40 27.01 1997/98 (Est.) : 265.42 295.40 45.72 209.53 40.15 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 268.08 312.41 46.28 214.09 52.05 September : 271.76 314.69 46.91 214.09 53.70 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 5.45 6.58 2.50 3.22 0.87 1997/98 (Est.) : 5.84 7.01 2.74 3.28 0.98 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 5.80 6.94 2.61 3.55 0.78 September : 5.92 7.22 2.74 3.55 0.93 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-342-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 1,536.61 1,759.21 169.89 1,591.30 249.18 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,548.96 1,792.29 168.56 1,609.68 259.38 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 1,534.55 1,787.13 163.00 1,627.10 239.54 September : 1,521.84 1,775.66 160.37 1,621.42 233.15 Wheat : 1996/97 : 521.12 614.22 96.76 542.48 99.00 1997/98 (Est.) : 542.84 639.26 88.18 552.09 115.48 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 528.31 640.13 85.79 567.32 103.42 September : 526.40 639.43 86.39 565.10 103.58 Coarse grains 5/ : 1996/97 : 640.75 721.24 55.45 672.88 99.89 1997/98 (Est.) : 626.57 723.49 58.84 677.13 92.09 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 625.77 715.56 58.53 674.71 87.13 September : 622.69 711.98 55.66 672.74 86.15 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 374.74 423.74 17.67 375.94 50.30 1997/98 (Est.) : 379.54 429.54 21.54 380.46 51.82 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 380.47 431.45 18.68 385.07 48.99 September : 372.75 424.25 18.33 383.58 43.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1996/97 : 89.43 123.19 26.90 88.21 37.03 1997/98 (Est.) : 91.12 128.15 26.08 88.40 40.51 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 86.15 126.59 25.85 88.27 38.35 September : 85.34 125.85 25.68 88.00 37.76 : United States 1996/97 : 18.94 21.95 6.87 11.13 3.97 1997/98 (Est.) : 18.79 22.78 7.50 11.34 3.88 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 14.26 18.26 4.90 10.80 2.60 September : 13.56 17.74 4.60 10.70 2.40 : Foreign 3/ 1996/97 : 70.49 101.24 20.03 77.08 33.06 1997/98 (Est.) : 72.32 105.37 18.58 77.06 36.64 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 71.89 108.32 20.95 77.47 35.75 September : 71.77 108.11 21.08 77.30 35.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-342-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 261.13 283.18 49.26 218.92 16.40 1997/98 (Est.) : 287.07 303.46 52.94 229.60 22.38 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 288.09 311.13 51.65 234.80 27.58 September : 290.81 313.19 52.20 235.45 28.58 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 149.27 156.03 50.34 150.44 5.79 1997/98 (Est.) : 155.76 161.54 51.22 155.71 5.54 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 160.09 165.85 53.72 159.81 5.60 September : 160.72 166.26 54.27 160.14 5.46 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 75.41 82.86 28.83 75.18 7.22 1997/98 (Est.) : 77.67 84.89 29.38 77.65 6.71 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 79.91 86.51 30.22 79.92 6.24 September : 80.16 86.87 30.33 80.08 6.35 : : United States Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 74.82 81.47 24.63 44.13 4.64 1997/98 (Est.) : 84.24 89.52 24.57 48.89 6.36 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 86.04 93.24 23.80 49.08 12.31 September : 88.14 95.17 24.10 48.84 13.87 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 33.76 35.03 6.60 28.21 0.23 1997/98 (Est.) : 37.17 38.81 8.71 29.87 0.23 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 37.50 39.26 8.34 30.64 0.27 September : 37.48 39.18 8.40 30.53 0.26 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 8.46 11.19 1.61 8.62 0.96 1997/98 (Est.) : 9.58 12.22 2.13 9.10 1.00 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 9.70 12.35 2.05 9.32 0.99 September : 9.66 12.35 2.03 9.27 1.05 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 186.30 201.71 24.62 174.78 11.76 1997/98 (Est.) : 202.82 213.95 28.37 180.71 16.02 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 202.05 217.89 27.84 185.72 15.27 September : 202.66 218.03 28.10 186.61 14.71 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 115.51 121.00 43.74 122.23 5.56 1997/98 (Est.) : 118.58 122.73 42.51 125.84 5.31 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 122.58 126.59 45.38 129.16 5.33 September : 123.25 127.08 45.87 129.61 5.20 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 66.95 71.66 27.22 66.56 6.26 1997/98 (Est.) : 68.08 72.67 27.25 68.56 5.72 1998/99 (Proj.) : August : 70.21 74.16 28.18 70.60 5.26 September : 70.50 74.52 28.30 70.81 5.30 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-342-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 75.6 71.0 65.8 65.8 Harvested : 62.9 63.6 59.2 59.2 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 36.3 39.7 43.0 43.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 376 444 723 723 Production : 2,285 2,527 2,549 2,565 Imports : 92 95 90 90 Supply, total : 2,753 3,065 3,362 3,378 Food : 891 915 925 925 Seed : 103 92 93 93 Feed and residual : 314 294 400 400 Domestic, total : 1,308 1,301 1,418 1,418 Exports : 1,001 1,040 1,125 1,075 Use, total : 2,310 2,342 2,543 2,493 Ending stocks : 444 723 819 885 CCC inventory : 93 94 94 Free stocks : 351 629 791 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.30 3.38 2.55- 2.95 2.50- 2.80 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1997/98 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production : 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Supply, total 3/ : 1,264 723 529 402 146 3,065 Domestic use : 599 263 269 107 63 1,301 Exports : 358 240 180 205 57 1,040 Use, total : 957 503 449 312 120 2,342 Ending stocks, total : 307 220 80 90 26 723 : 1998/99 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 307 220 80 90 26 723 Production : 1,200 467 449 317 132 2,565 Supply, total 3/ : 1,509 743 529 417 181 3,378 Domestic use : 637 253 290 146 92 1,418 Exports : 460 275 125 175 40 1,075 Use, total : 1,097 528 415 322 132 2,493 Ending stocks, total : September : 412 215 114 96 49 885 August : 397 204 84 97 38 819 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-342-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 104.5 102.4 102.0 102.0 Harvested : 94.5 92.4 90.6 90.6 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.83 2.87 2.96 3.00 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 14.4 27.0 41.5 40.1 Production : 267.3 265.2 267.8 271.5 Imports : 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 Supply, total : 284.6 295.0 312.0 314.3 Feed and residual : 156.8 157.3 160.4 160.4 Food, seed & industrial : 49.2 51.9 53.3 53.3 Domestic, total : 206.1 209.2 213.7 213.7 Exports : 51.5 45.7 46.3 46.9 Use, total : 257.6 254.9 259.9 260.6 Ending stocks, total : 27.0 40.1 52.0 53.7 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 26.9 40.1 53.7 Outstanding loans : 5.0 8.5 8.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.5 80.2 80.8 80.8 Harvested : 73.1 73.7 73.8 73.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 127.1 127.0 130.0 132.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 426 883 1,449 1,399 Production : 9,293 9,366 9,592 9,738 Imports : 13 10 10 10 Supply, total : 9,733 10,259 11,051 11,147 Feed and residual : 5,362 5,550 5,750 5,750 Food, seed & industrial : 1,692 1,785 1,850 1,850 Domestic, total : 7,054 7,335 7,600 7,600 Exports : 1,795 1,525 1,600 1,625 Use, total : 8,849 8,860 9,200 9,225 Ending stocks, total : 883 1,399 1,851 1,922 CCC inventory : 2 0 0 Free stocks : 881 1,399 1,922 Outstanding loans : 179 310 325 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.71 2.45 1.95- 2.35 1.80- 2.20 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-342-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 13.2 10.1 9.7 9.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 11.9 9.4 7.8 7.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.5 69.5 67.4 67.5 Beginning stocks : 18 47 41 36 Production : 803 653 529 529 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 821 701 569 565 Feed : 524 400 275 275 Food, seed & industrial : 45 55 45 45 Total domestic : 569 455 320 320 Exports : 205 210 195 195 Use, total : 774 665 515 515 Ending stocks, total : 47 36 54 50 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.34 2.20 1.80- 2.20 1.65- 2.05 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.1 6.9 6.4 6.4 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 6.4 6.1 6.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.5 58.3 61.6 61.3 Beginning stocks : 100 109 120 120 Production : 396 374 374 372 Imports : 37 40 35 35 Supply, total : 532 524 530 528 Feed : 220 158 210 210 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 392 330 382 382 Exports : 31 74 30 30 Use, total : 423 404 412 412 Ending stocks, total : 109 120 118 116 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.74 2.38 1.80- 2.20 1.75- 2.15 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.7 5.2 5.0 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.8 60.5 60.4 60.4 Beginning stocks : 66 67 74 74 Production : 155 176 177 177 Imports : 97 98 95 95 Supply, total : 319 341 346 346 Feed : 155 170 175 175 Food, seed & industrial : 95 95 95 95 Total domestic : 250 265 270 270 Exports : 3 2 2 2 Use, total : 252 267 272 272 Ending stocks, total : 67 74 74 74 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.96 1.60 1.10- 1.50 1.00- 1.40 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-342-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.82 3.06 3.22 3.22 Harvested : 2.80 3.03 3.19 3.19 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,121 5,896 5,576 5,685 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.0 27.2 25.0 30.0 Production : 171.3 178.9 177.7 181.2 Imports : 10.0 9.4 10.0 10.0 Supply, total : 206.3 215.5 212.7 221.2 Domestic & residual 3/ : 100.7 101.5 108.9 108.9 Exports, total 4/ : 78.4 84.0 80.0 84.0 Rough : 12.6 26.0 23.0 24.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 65.9 58.0 57.0 60.0 Use, total : 179.1 185.5 188.9 192.9 Ending stocks : 27.2 30.0 23.8 28.3 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.96 9.64 9.25-10.25 9.00-10.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 1.96 2.26 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,777 5,380 Beginning stocks : 10.1 14.1 9.8 14.3 Production : 113.4 121.6 130.4 132.9 Supply, total 6/ : 132.2 144.6 149.2 156.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 61.6 63.2 70.9 70.9 Exports 7/ : 56.5 67.0 63.0 67.0 Use, total : 118.1 130.2 133.9 137.9 Ending stocks : 14.1 14.3 15.3 18.4 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.84 0.77 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,926 7,406 Beginning stocks : 14.3 12.1 14.3 14.7 Production : 58.0 57.2 47.3 48.2 Supply, total 6/ : 73.2 69.9 62.6 63.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.1 38.2 38.0 38.0 Exports 7/ : 22.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 Use, total : 61.0 55.2 55.0 55.0 Ending stocks : 12.1 14.7 7.6 8.9 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0; 1998/99-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-342-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 64.2 70.8 72.7 72.7 Harvested : 63.4 69.9 71.6 71.6 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 37.6 39.0 39.5 40.6 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 183 131 210 200 Production : 2,382 2,727 2,825 2,909 Imports : 9 5 6 6 Supply, total : 2,575 2,863 3,041 3,115 Crushings : 1,436 1,595 1,615 1,625 Exports : 882 875 850 860 Seed : 83 86 84 83 Residual : 43 107 _3/ 62 62 Use, total : 2,443 2,663 2,611 2,630 Ending stocks : 131 200 430 485 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.35 6.45 4.85- 5.85 4.65 - 5.35 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,015 1,520 1,405 1,405 Production : 15,752 17,980 _4/ 18,170 18,280 Imports : 53 55 55 55 Supply, total : 17,821 19,555 19,630 19,740 Domestic : 14,263 15,125 15,300 15,300 Exports : 2,037 3,025 2,800 2,850 Use, total : 16,300 18,150 18,100 18,150 Ending stocks : 1,520 1,405 1,530 1,590 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.50 25.75 25.50- 25.00- : 27.50 27.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 212 210 250 200 Production : 34,210 37,820 _4/ 38,325 38,550 Imports : 102 55 50 50 Supply, total : 34,524 38,085 38,625 38,800 Domestic : 27,320 28,535 29,375 29,450 Exports : 6,994 9,350 9,000 9,100 Use, total : 34,314 37,885 38,375 38,550 Ending stocks : 210 200 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 270.90 187.00 140.00- 125.00- : 155.00 140.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through May, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,595 million bushels. WASDE-342-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :====================== : : Estimate : August September ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,488 1,502 1,495 Production 2/3/ : 7,205 7,925 7,900 7,980 Beet sugar : 4,013 4,300 4,375 4,420 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,192 3,625 3,525 3,560 Imports 2/ : 2,774 2,167 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 2,277 1,741 NA NA Other 6/ : 497 426 440 420 Total supply : 11,471 11,580 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 211 185 150 150 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,742 9,900 10,075 10,075 Domestic food use : 9,564 9,755 9,910 9,905 Other 8/ : 178 145 165 170 Miscellaneous 9/ : 30 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,983 10,085 10,225 10,225 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,488 1,495 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 14.9 14.8 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1996/97 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 1998/99 are based on September Crop Production report and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1997/98 (projected 1998/99): FL 1,925 (1,890); HI 340 (340); LA 1,265 (1,220); TX 80 (95); PR 15 (15). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1997/98 TRQ includes a forecast 50,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. WASDE-342-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.63 13.81 12.87 12.87 Harvested : 12.87 13.27 10.70 10.60 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 707 680 640 614 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.61 3.97 3.90 3.88 Production : 18.94 18.79 14.26 13.56 Imports : 0.40 0.01 0.10 0.30 Supply, total : 21.95 22.78 18.26 17.74 Domestic use : 11.13 11.34 10.80 10.70 Exports : 6.87 7.50 4.90 4.60 Use, total : 17.99 18.84 15.70 15.30 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.01 0.06 -0.04 0.04 Ending stocks : 3.97 3.88 2.60 2.40 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 69.3 64.9 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. WASDE-342-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 105.85 583.31 118.17 97.07 578.09 124.02 111.07 United States : 10.23 62.19 2.51 8.54 35.61 27.25 12.07 Total foreign : 95.62 521.12 115.66 88.52 542.48 96.76 99.00 Major exporters 4/ : 19.47 167.91 23.16 43.89 96.39 87.15 27.00 Argentina : 0.15 15.90 0.01 0.45 5.08 10.18 0.80 Australia : 1.48 23.70 0.02 1.18 3.59 19.21 2.40 Canada : 6.73 29.80 0.22 4.39 8.20 19.50 9.05 EU-15 : 11.12 98.51 22.90 37.87 79.51 38.26 14.76 Major importers 5/ : 37.39 173.63 36.32 15.80 206.34 2.06 38.94 Brazil : 0.22 3.20 5.57 0.00 8.40 0.00 0.58 China : 24.30 110.57 2.69 3.40 112.60 0.79 24.17 East. Europe : 7.13 26.50 4.54 10.60 31.63 0.79 5.75 N. Africa : 1.99 15.98 14.25 0.36 27.44 0.09 4.70 Pakistan : 2.90 16.91 3.01 0.45 20.12 0.00 2.70 Selected other : India : 12.00 62.10 1.45 0.35 66.84 1.70 7.00 FSU-12 6/ : 10.94 63.30 6.07 22.81 70.54 3.45 6.32 Russia : 3.19 34.90 1.98 14.65 37.81 0.60 1.65 Kazakstan : 0.72 7.70 0.00 1.50 5.10 2.25 1.07 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 111.07 611.60 115.54 103.20 587.51 116.49 135.16 United States : 12.07 68.76 2.58 8.01 35.42 28.31 19.69 Total foreign : 99.00 542.84 112.96 95.19 552.09 88.18 115.48 Major exporters 4/ : 27.00 152.85 21.50 46.25 98.54 77.95 24.87 Argentina : 0.80 14.70 0.02 0.35 4.80 10.00 0.72 Australia : 2.40 19.42 0.03 2.60 5.00 14.50 2.34 Canada : 9.05 24.30 0.20 3.39 7.39 20.17 5.99 EU-15 : 14.76 94.44 21.25 39.92 81.36 33.28 15.81 Major importers 5/ : 38.94 187.96 36.66 17.89 210.56 3.84 49.16 Brazil : 0.58 2.40 5.70 0.00 8.14 0.00 0.54 China : 24.17 123.30 1.90 5.00 115.00 1.00 33.37 East. Europe : 5.75 34.86 1.56 11.33 32.68 2.25 7.24 N. Africa : 4.70 10.18 17.50 0.31 28.35 0.09 3.94 Pakistan : 2.70 16.65 3.80 0.30 20.20 0.10 2.85 Selected other : India : 7.00 69.28 1.85 0.35 68.53 0.00 9.60 FSU-12 6/ : 6.32 80.51 5.41 24.50 72.63 3.75 15.85 Russia : 1.65 44.20 2.10 16.00 39.06 0.85 8.04 Kazakstan : 1.07 8.95 0.00 1.20 4.90 1.90 3.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-342-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 133.95 597.68 113.46 110.84 605.91 116.40 125.72 September : 135.16 596.20 113.01 110.34 603.69 115.64 127.67 United States : August : 19.69 69.37 2.45 10.89 38.59 30.62 22.30 September : 19.69 69.80 2.45 10.89 38.59 29.26 24.09 Total foreign : August : 114.27 528.31 111.02 99.95 567.32 85.79 103.42 September : 115.48 526.40 110.56 99.45 565.10 86.39 103.58 Major exporters 4/ : August : 23.66 160.32 21.07 49.75 102.83 74.51 27.71 September : 24.87 161.31 21.07 51.05 103.67 74.51 29.07 Argentina Aug : 0.72 11.50 0.03 0.30 4.80 6.90 0.55 Sep : 0.72 11.50 0.03 0.30 4.80 6.90 0.55 Australia Aug : 1.58 21.50 0.03 2.30 4.60 16.00 2.51 Sep : 2.34 23.50 0.03 2.50 4.80 17.00 4.07 Canada Aug : 5.54 24.00 0.20 4.20 8.20 16.00 5.54 Sep : 5.99 23.15 0.20 4.20 8.20 15.50 5.64 EU-15 Aug : 15.81 103.32 20.81 42.95 85.23 35.61 19.11 Sep : 15.81 103.16 20.81 44.05 85.86 35.11 18.81 Major importers 5/ : August : 49.46 177.93 33.16 19.26 214.63 3.29 42.64 September : 49.16 179.03 33.26 18.86 214.53 3.39 43.54 Brazil Aug : 0.64 2.55 5.90 0.40 8.50 0.00 0.59 Sep : 0.54 2.55 5.90 0.00 8.40 0.00 0.59 China Aug : 33.57 110.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 0.70 28.87 Sep : 33.37 110.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 0.70 28.67 East. Europe Aug : 7.24 32.87 1.36 12.30 34.17 1.90 5.41 Sep : 7.24 33.97 1.36 12.30 34.07 2.00 6.51 N. Africa Aug : 3.94 13.41 15.70 0.31 28.86 0.09 4.10 Sep : 3.94 13.41 15.80 0.31 28.96 0.09 4.10 Pakistan Aug : 2.85 18.50 2.00 0.30 20.80 0.20 2.35 Sep : 2.85 18.50 2.00 0.30 20.80 0.20 2.35 Selected other : India Aug : 9.60 67.00 1.50 0.35 69.80 0.00 8.30 Sep : 9.60 67.00 1.50 0.35 69.80 0.00 8.30 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 15.55 66.35 4.88 24.12 72.84 4.60 9.34 Sep : 15.85 63.15 4.88 22.42 70.94 4.60 8.34 Russia Aug : 7.94 35.00 2.00 16.50 39.50 1.30 4.14 Sep : 8.04 32.00 2.00 15.00 38.00 1.00 3.04 Kazakstan Aug : 3.02 6.50 0.00 1.30 4.90 2.80 1.82 Sep : 3.22 6.50 0.00 1.30 4.90 2.80 2.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-342-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 97.86 908.31 103.52 576.19 879.27 106.98 126.90 United States : 14.44 267.56 2.93 156.94 206.40 51.52 27.01 Total foreign : 83.42 640.75 100.59 419.25 672.88 55.45 99.89 Major exporters 4/ : 6.48 66.85 1.26 32.89 41.98 23.57 9.04 Argentina : 0.71 18.93 0.08 4.79 6.78 11.84 1.11 Australia : 0.66 10.15 0.01 4.50 5.74 4.41 0.67 Canada : 2.90 28.19 0.92 19.14 21.78 5.43 4.81 Major importers 5/ : 24.05 197.12 64.67 172.00 234.46 24.62 26.76 EU-15 : 9.83 103.75 16.90 72.58 95.52 22.79 12.17 East. Europe : 4.16 49.65 1.85 38.47 49.75 1.71 4.21 Japan : 2.06 0.24 20.66 16.44 20.85 0.00 2.11 Mexico : 3.43 26.49 5.37 15.87 31.55 0.04 3.70 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.31 3.99 13.41 18.33 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.49 8.77 6.97 9.15 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 35.70 141.32 2.11 89.55 128.59 4.00 46.54 FSU-12 6/ : 4.93 52.15 1.63 33.46 53.83 1.55 3.32 Russia : 1.49 31.65 0.75 19.84 32.56 0.35 0.98 Ukraine : 1.74 9.51 0.03 5.70 10.19 0.23 0.86 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 126.90 892.00 101.07 582.57 886.66 104.56 132.23 United States : 27.01 265.42 2.97 157.45 209.53 45.72 40.15 Total foreign : 99.89 626.57 98.10 425.12 677.13 58.84 92.09 Major exporters 4/ : 9.04 67.42 2.04 34.73 44.33 24.25 9.92 Argentina : 1.11 24.96 0.01 5.86 8.03 15.86 2.19 Australia : 0.67 9.19 0.01 4.12 5.35 3.19 1.34 Canada : 4.81 25.22 1.51 20.39 23.25 3.80 4.49 Major importers 5/ : 26.76 207.28 63.81 173.27 234.92 23.96 38.96 EU-15 : 12.17 109.36 17.10 73.31 95.80 20.08 22.76 East. Europe : 4.21 58.30 0.65 42.13 53.31 3.09 6.76 Japan : 2.11 0.20 20.89 16.39 20.79 0.00 2.40 Mexico : 3.70 23.86 7.97 16.74 31.98 0.50 3.05 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.20 3.35 11.34 16.45 0.30 1.04 South Korea : 0.86 0.35 8.03 6.20 8.49 0.00 0.75 Selected other : China : 46.54 116.70 1.80 95.15 132.70 6.05 26.29 FSU-12 6/ : 3.32 67.95 1.50 37.51 62.02 3.13 7.63 Russia : 0.98 40.85 0.62 23.36 36.70 1.55 4.21 Ukraine : 0.86 15.35 0.00 5.75 13.73 0.93 1.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-342-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 134.12 893.85 100.66 582.86 888.79 104.81 139.18 September : 132.23 894.45 99.88 583.00 886.83 102.57 139.85 United States : August : 41.54 268.08 2.79 160.58 214.09 46.28 52.05 September : 40.15 271.76 2.79 160.58 214.09 46.91 53.70 Total foreign : August : 92.58 625.77 97.86 422.27 674.71 58.53 87.13 September : 92.08 622.69 97.08 422.41 672.74 55.66 86.15 Major exporters 4/ : August : 10.32 65.11 1.64 34.40 44.13 23.24 9.69 September : 9.92 63.80 1.64 35.11 44.89 21.29 9.17 Argentina Aug : 2.19 22.09 0.01 5.87 7.93 14.41 1.95 Sep : 2.19 20.59 0.01 5.97 8.18 12.66 1.95 Australia Aug : 0.83 8.41 0.01 4.36 5.54 3.03 0.68 Sep : 1.34 8.81 0.01 4.56 5.74 3.23 1.19 Canada Aug : 5.40 25.59 1.21 19.85 22.74 4.30 5.16 Sep : 4.49 25.38 1.21 20.26 23.05 3.90 4.13 Major importers 5/ : August : 38.65 198.61 62.09 170.41 232.85 27.29 39.21 September : 38.95 199.34 62.46 171.24 233.33 26.66 40.75 EU-15 Aug : 22.25 106.50 18.18 74.06 96.16 24.74 26.04 Sep : 22.75 106.98 18.20 74.24 96.34 23.71 27.88 East. Europe Aug : 6.76 49.85 0.74 39.50 50.85 2.15 4.35 Sep : 6.76 50.93 0.74 40.13 51.13 2.55 4.75 Japan Aug : 2.40 0.23 20.09 16.09 20.49 0.00 2.23 Sep : 2.40 0.23 20.09 16.09 20.49 0.00 2.23 Mexico Aug : 3.25 25.25 6.67 16.43 32.19 0.10 2.88 Sep : 3.05 24.03 7.17 16.45 32.27 0.10 1.88 Southeast Asia Aug : 1.04 14.35 2.90 11.34 16.95 0.30 1.04 Sep : 1.04 14.75 2.75 11.34 16.90 0.30 1.34 South Korea Aug : 0.75 0.49 7.70 6.00 8.21 0.00 0.73 Sep : 0.75 0.49 7.70 6.00 8.21 0.00 0.73 Selected other : China Aug : 26.29 134.65 2.30 98.40 135.75 4.10 23.39 Sep : 26.29 134.65 2.30 98.40 135.75 4.10 23.39 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 7.63 49.49 1.63 29.20 51.54 2.33 4.88 Sep : 7.63 46.99 1.63 28.95 50.94 1.83 3.48 Russia Aug : 4.21 26.90 0.75 16.40 29.05 0.80 2.01 Sep : 4.21 24.90 0.75 16.25 28.60 0.55 0.71 Ukraine Aug : 1.56 12.80 0.00 5.65 11.95 1.05 1.36 Sep : 1.56 12.10 0.00 5.55 11.80 0.80 1.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-342-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 69.08 591.43 70.98 393.90 569.23 73.24 91.29 United States : 10.82 236.06 0.34 136.21 179.19 45.60 22.43 Total foreign : 58.26 355.37 70.64 257.69 390.04 27.64 68.85 Major exporters 4/ : 2.60 24.51 0.11 6.78 11.29 12.73 3.20 Argentina : 0.40 15.50 0.00 2.78 4.32 10.83 0.75 South Africa : 2.20 9.01 0.11 4.00 6.97 1.90 2.45 Major importers 5/ : 11.82 93.88 48.28 92.72 131.63 9.73 12.62 EU-15 : 2.33 34.79 10.17 27.50 35.96 8.06 3.28 Japan : 1.07 0.00 15.96 12.00 16.10 0.00 0.93 Mexico : 2.60 18.92 3.14 7.10 22.17 0.04 2.45 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.11 3.99 13.22 18.12 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.07 8.34 6.64 8.30 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 34.70 127.47 0.08 86.00 113.35 3.89 45.00 FSU-12 6/ : 1.69 4.73 0.36 3.39 5.68 0.25 0.85 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.12 0.37 1.22 0.00 0.16 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 91.29 578.26 71.85 406.07 583.09 74.23 86.46 United States : 22.43 237.90 0.25 140.98 186.32 38.74 35.53 Total foreign : 68.85 340.36 71.59 265.09 396.77 35.50 50.93 Major exporters 4/ : 3.20 27.15 0.35 7.40 12.05 15.40 3.25 Argentina : 0.75 19.60 0.00 3.40 5.00 14.00 1.35 South Africa : 2.45 7.55 0.35 4.00 7.05 1.40 1.90 Major importers 5/ : 12.62 101.33 47.81 94.58 132.72 13.05 15.99 EU-15 : 3.28 38.67 10.90 30.53 38.48 9.74 4.63 Japan : 0.93 0.00 16.20 11.80 15.90 0.00 1.23 Mexico : 2.45 17.50 4.50 7.20 21.95 0.50 2.00 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.00 3.35 11.15 16.25 0.30 1.04 South Korea : 0.86 0.09 7.75 6.03 7.95 0.00 0.75 Selected other : China : 45.00 104.30 0.25 92.00 118.55 6.00 25.00 FSU-12 6/ : 0.85 10.56 0.44 5.07 9.63 0.45 1.76 Russia : 0.16 2.70 0.20 1.76 2.70 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-342-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 87.73 595.49 69.01 414.42 592.72 71.84 90.49 September : 86.46 597.32 69.36 414.36 591.39 71.12 92.39 United States : August : 36.80 243.65 0.25 146.06 193.05 40.64 47.01 September : 35.53 247.35 0.25 146.06 193.05 41.28 48.81 Total foreign : August : 50.93 351.84 68.76 268.37 399.68 31.20 43.47 September : 50.93 349.97 69.11 268.30 398.34 29.85 43.57 Major exporters 4/ : August : 3.25 26.50 0.25 7.40 12.10 14.75 3.15 September : 3.25 25.00 0.25 7.50 12.35 13.00 3.15 Argentina Aug : 1.35 18.00 0.00 3.40 4.85 13.25 1.25 Sep : 1.35 16.50 0.00 3.50 5.10 11.50 1.25 South Africa Aug : 1.90 8.50 0.25 4.00 7.25 1.50 1.90 Sep : 1.90 8.50 0.25 4.00 7.25 1.50 1.90 Major importers 5/ : August : 15.99 92.73 45.63 92.24 130.96 11.41 11.97 September : 15.99 92.16 45.98 92.07 130.44 11.81 11.87 EU-15 Aug : 4.63 35.16 11.37 30.82 38.31 9.34 3.51 Sep : 4.63 34.96 11.37 30.62 38.11 9.34 3.51 Japan Aug : 1.23 0.00 15.50 11.60 15.70 0.00 1.03 Sep : 1.23 0.00 15.50 11.60 15.70 0.00 1.03 Mexico Aug : 2.00 18.50 3.75 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.90 Sep : 2.00 17.50 4.25 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.40 Southeast Asia Aug : 1.04 14.15 2.90 11.15 16.75 0.30 1.04 Sep : 1.04 14.55 2.75 11.15 16.70 0.30 1.34 South Korea Aug : 0.75 0.09 7.00 5.40 7.10 0.00 0.73 Sep : 0.75 0.09 7.00 5.40 7.10 0.00 0.73 Selected other : China Aug : 25.00 122.00 0.25 95.00 121.25 4.00 22.00 Sep : 25.00 122.00 0.25 95.00 121.25 4.00 22.00 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 1.76 6.49 0.39 4.23 7.09 0.40 1.15 Sep : 1.76 6.69 0.39 4.23 7.09 0.40 1.35 Russia Aug : 0.36 1.40 0.15 0.95 1.75 0.00 0.16 Sep : 0.36 1.40 0.15 0.95 1.75 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-342-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 3/ : 50.13 380.19 17.40 379.16 20.17 51.16 United States : 0.81 5.45 0.32 3.22 2.50 0.87 Total foreign : 49.32 374.74 17.08 375.94 17.67 50.30 Major exporters 4/ : 12.33 117.28 0.00 106.54 12.48 10.59 Thailand : 0.81 13.66 0.00 8.55 5.27 0.65 Vietnam : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.73 3.27 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 7.62 51.59 7.56 59.61 1.33 5.82 Indonesia : 2.62 32.08 0.80 33.97 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China : 21.73 136.57 0.33 132.13 0.94 25.56 Japan : 2.48 9.41 0.50 9.25 0.10 3.05 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 3/ : 51.16 385.39 23.72 383.74 24.28 52.80 United States : 0.87 5.84 0.30 3.28 2.74 0.98 Total foreign : 50.30 379.54 23.42 380.46 21.54 51.82 Major exporters 4/ : 10.59 120.71 0.00 106.15 14.70 10.45 Thailand : 0.65 15.05 0.00 8.70 6.20 0.80 Vietnam : 0.00 17.80 0.00 14.20 3.60 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 5.82 48.87 13.29 61.60 1.15 5.23 Indonesia : 1.53 30.90 5.70 35.95 0.00 2.18 Selected other : China : 25.56 140.49 0.30 136.64 2.25 27.46 Japan : 3.05 9.12 0.60 9.20 0.75 2.82 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 52.12 386.27 19.39 388.62 21.29 49.77 September : 52.80 378.67 19.59 387.13 21.07 44.34 United States : August : 0.82 5.80 0.32 3.55 2.61 0.78 September : 0.98 5.92 0.32 3.55 2.74 0.93 Total foreign : August : 51.30 380.47 19.07 385.07 18.68 48.99 September : 51.82 372.75 19.27 383.58 18.33 43.42 Major exporters 4/ : August : 9.85 120.70 0.00 107.95 12.50 10.10 September : 10.45 120.20 0.00 107.65 13.10 9.90 Thailand Aug : 0.75 14.80 0.00 8.90 5.70 0.95 Sep : 0.80 14.80 0.00 8.90 5.80 0.90 Vietnam Aug : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Sep : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : August : 5.34 52.64 9.04 61.29 1.26 4.47 September : 5.23 52.64 9.09 61.12 1.26 4.58 Indonesia Aug : 2.18 33.00 1.50 35.20 0.00 1.48 Sep : 2.18 33.00 1.50 35.20 0.00 1.48 Selected other : China Aug : 27.46 138.00 0.50 138.00 1.75 26.21 Sep : 27.46 132.00 0.50 137.50 1.00 21.46 Japan Aug : 2.82 8.30 0.70 9.15 0.20 2.47 Sep : 2.82 8.10 0.70 9.15 0.20 2.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-342-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 17.51 131.71 36.42 115.51 135.81 36.96 12.86 United States : 4.99 64.84 0.24 39.08 42.50 24.00 3.58 Total foreign : 12.51 66.87 36.17 76.43 93.31 12.96 9.29 Major exporters 3/ : 10.02 40.77 1.20 31.49 33.86 11.32 6.80 Argentina : 4.22 11.20 0.30 11.05 11.56 0.75 3.40 Brazil : 5.80 26.80 0.90 19.90 21.68 8.42 3.40 Major importers 4/ : 1.76 16.40 27.43 31.32 43.24 0.56 1.80 EU-15 : 0.82 1.14 15.31 14.67 16.09 0.35 0.84 Japan : 0.55 0.15 5.04 3.81 5.11 0.00 0.64 China : 0.00 13.22 2.27 8.69 15.30 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 12.86 156.52 39.36 125.98 149.50 39.86 19.39 United States : 3.58 74.22 0.12 43.41 48.67 23.81 5.44 Total foreign : 9.29 82.30 39.24 82.57 100.83 16.05 13.95 Major exporters 3/ : 6.80 52.20 2.70 33.50 36.45 13.90 11.35 Argentina : 3.40 18.50 1.00 13.00 13.85 2.60 6.45 Brazil : 3.40 31.00 1.70 20.00 22.00 9.20 4.90 Major importers 4/ : 1.80 18.35 28.93 34.42 46.76 0.70 1.62 EU-15 : 0.84 1.57 15.56 15.39 16.71 0.50 0.76 Japan : 0.64 0.15 4.95 3.80 5.10 0.00 0.63 China : 0.00 14.73 3.20 10.65 17.75 0.18 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 20.11 153.95 37.62 127.64 149.02 37.87 24.78 September : 19.39 156.39 38.37 128.61 150.19 38.29 25.66 United States : August : 5.71 76.88 0.16 43.95 47.91 23.13 11.70 September : 5.44 79.16 0.16 44.22 48.17 23.40 13.19 Total foreign : August : 14.40 77.08 37.45 83.68 101.11 14.74 13.08 September : 13.95 77.23 38.20 84.38 102.02 14.89 12.48 Major exporters 3/ : August : 11.85 47.40 1.25 34.40 37.20 12.80 10.50 September : 11.35 47.40 1.25 34.30 37.20 12.90 9.90 Argentina Aug : 6.65 15.00 0.25 13.50 14.30 2.10 5.50 Sep : 6.45 15.50 0.25 13.60 14.50 2.50 5.20 Brazil Aug : 5.20 29.50 1.00 20.30 22.20 8.50 5.00 Sep : 4.90 29.00 1.00 20.10 22.00 8.20 4.70 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.57 17.99 28.88 34.30 46.07 0.72 1.65 September : 1.62 17.85 29.18 34.40 46.27 0.72 1.65 EU-15 Aug : 0.76 1.84 15.50 15.50 16.70 0.52 0.88 Sep : 0.76 1.84 15.50 15.50 16.70 0.52 0.88 Japan Aug : 0.58 0.12 4.70 3.65 4.86 0.00 0.54 Sep : 0.63 0.18 4.70 3.65 4.96 0.00 0.54 China Aug : 0.00 14.00 3.30 10.30 17.10 0.20 0.00 Sep : 0.00 13.80 3.50 10.30 17.10 0.20 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-342-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 4.31 91.81 34.35 92.68 34.01 3.78 United States : 0.19 31.04 0.09 24.78 6.34 0.19 Total foreign : 4.12 60.78 34.26 67.90 27.66 3.59 Major exporters 3/ : 1.39 27.65 0.20 6.31 21.84 1.08 Argentina : 0.30 9.01 0.00 0.38 8.68 0.25 Brazil : 0.97 15.72 0.20 5.40 10.66 0.84 India : 0.11 2.92 0.00 0.53 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 19.64 23.32 38.64 4.54 1.22 EU-15 : 1.12 11.62 14.71 22.07 4.49 0.90 China : 0.00 6.95 3.60 10.53 0.02 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.78 99.78 36.31 99.19 36.94 3.74 United States : 0.19 34.31 0.05 25.89 8.48 0.18 Total foreign : 3.59 65.47 36.26 73.31 28.46 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 29.87 0.10 6.94 22.70 1.41 Argentina : 0.25 10.60 0.00 0.39 9.90 0.56 Brazil : 0.84 15.73 0.10 5.55 10.30 0.81 India : 0.00 3.54 0.00 1.00 2.50 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.22 21.66 24.66 42.08 4.39 1.08 EU-15 : 0.90 12.01 16.24 23.86 4.36 0.92 China : 0.00 8.52 4.00 12.51 0.01 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 3.95 101.09 37.60 101.06 37.69 3.89 September : 3.74 101.86 37.92 101.66 38.11 3.76 United States : August : 0.23 34.77 0.05 26.65 8.16 0.23 September : 0.18 34.97 0.05 26.72 8.26 0.23 Total foreign : August : 3.73 66.32 37.56 74.41 29.52 3.66 September : 3.56 66.89 37.88 74.94 29.85 3.53 Major exporters 3/ : August : 1.58 30.68 0.10 7.04 23.75 1.56 September : 1.41 30.81 0.10 7.07 23.83 1.42 Argentina Aug : 0.55 11.01 0.00 0.40 10.60 0.56 Sep : 0.56 11.08 0.00 0.40 10.68 0.56 Brazil Aug : 0.99 15.96 0.10 5.80 10.30 0.95 Sep : 0.81 15.81 0.10 5.75 10.15 0.82 India Aug : 0.04 3.70 0.00 0.84 2.85 0.05 Sep : 0.04 3.92 0.00 0.92 3.00 0.05 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.08 21.55 25.42 42.49 4.44 1.12 September : 1.08 21.54 25.62 42.69 4.43 1.12 EU-15 Aug : 0.92 12.07 16.95 24.66 4.29 0.98 Sep : 0.92 12.07 16.95 24.66 4.29 0.98 China Aug : 0.00 8.24 4.20 12.44 0.00 0.00 Sep : 0.00 8.24 4.40 12.64 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-342-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 2.64 20.68 5.93 20.89 5.92 2.43 United States : 0.91 7.14 0.02 6.47 0.92 0.69 Total foreign : 1.72 13.53 5.90 14.42 5.00 1.74 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.27 0.64 4.50 4.40 0.85 Argentina : 0.28 1.91 0.00 0.10 1.79 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.72 0.18 2.60 1.29 0.38 EU-15 : 0.20 2.63 0.46 1.80 1.32 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 2.05 1.96 3.97 0.08 0.34 China : 0.35 1.39 1.67 3.01 0.08 0.32 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.02 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.43 22.76 6.64 22.68 6.77 2.37 United States : 0.69 8.16 0.03 6.86 1.37 0.64 Total foreign : 1.74 14.60 6.61 15.82 5.40 1.73 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.77 0.69 4.61 4.86 0.85 Argentina : 0.30 2.25 0.00 0.10 2.14 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.76 0.20 2.68 1.28 0.39 EU-15 : 0.17 2.76 0.49 1.83 1.43 0.16 Major importers 4/ : 0.34 2.51 2.22 4.66 0.04 0.38 China : 0.32 1.70 1.90 3.53 0.04 0.36 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.02 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 2.34 23.04 6.67 22.99 6.72 2.34 September : 2.37 23.15 6.69 23.08 6.77 2.37 United States : August : 0.64 8.24 0.03 6.94 1.27 0.69 September : 0.64 8.29 0.03 6.94 1.29 0.72 Total foreign : August : 1.70 14.80 6.65 16.05 5.45 1.64 September : 1.73 14.86 6.66 16.14 5.47 1.65 Major exporters 3/ : August : 0.81 8.89 0.71 4.74 4.86 0.81 September : 0.85 8.88 0.71 4.74 4.88 0.81 Argentina Aug : 0.29 2.34 0.00 0.11 2.23 0.29 Sep : 0.30 2.35 0.00 0.11 2.24 0.30 Brazil Aug : 0.36 3.78 0.21 2.78 1.20 0.37 Sep : 0.39 3.74 0.21 2.78 1.20 0.36 EU-15 Aug : 0.16 2.78 0.50 1.86 1.43 0.15 Sep : 0.16 2.78 0.50 1.86 1.43 0.15 Major importers 4/ : August : 0.38 2.59 2.33 4.84 0.06 0.40 September : 0.38 2.54 2.33 4.80 0.05 0.40 China Aug : 0.36 1.75 2.00 3.67 0.06 0.38 Sep : 0.36 1.65 2.00 3.57 0.05 0.38 Pakistan Aug : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.02 Sep : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-342-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : ================================================================================ : : 1996/97 : World : 33.76 89.43 29.18 88.21 26.90 0.25 37.03 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.40 11.13 6.87 -0.01 3.97 Total foreign : 31.15 70.49 28.78 77.08 20.03 0.25 33.06 Major exporters 5/ : 10.13 39.45 0.59 23.48 16.01 0.07 10.61 Pakistan : 1.36 7.32 0.28 7.00 0.12 0.02 1.82 India : 3.35 13.81 0.04 12.51 1.26 0.00 3.43 Central Asia 6/ : 2.02 6.57 0.01 1.10 6.03 0.00 1.47 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.42 3.67 0.01 0.30 3.31 0.00 0.49 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.48 5.35 0.23 1.30 4.41 0.02 2.33 Australia : 0.75 2.79 4/ 0.21 2.38 0.00 0.95 Argentina : 1.35 1.49 0.01 0.47 1.33 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 19.21 27.26 22.87 46.04 2.45 0.18 20.67 Brazil : 1.15 1.29 2.43 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.96 Mexico : 0.34 1.08 0.95 1.60 0.45 0.04 0.28 China : 13.20 19.30 3.61 21.00 0.01 0.00 15.11 Europe : 2.03 1.95 6.22 6.65 1.61 0.05 1.88 Turkey : 0.54 3.60 1.36 4.74 0.21 0.00 0.56 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.95 0.05 8.31 8.15 0.18 0.10 1.88 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.15 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.10 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.50 1.48 0.07 0.00 0.51 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World : 37.03 91.12 27.12 88.40 26.08 0.27 40.51 United States : 3.97 18.79 0.01 11.34 7.50 0.06 3.88 Total foreign : 33.06 72.32 27.11 77.06 18.58 0.22 36.64 Major exporters 5/ : 10.61 39.32 0.93 23.85 15.36 0.08 11.58 Pakistan : 1.82 7.00 0.15 7.10 0.35 0.03 1.49 India : 3.43 12.00 0.50 12.60 0.15 0.00 3.18 Central Asia 6/ : 1.47 7.21 0.01 1.09 5.68 0.00 1.92 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.49 4.32 4/ 0.31 3.69 0.00 0.80 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.33 5.60 0.25 1.34 4.14 0.03 2.67 Australia : 0.95 3.06 4/ 0.21 2.55 0.00 1.25 Argentina : 1.04 1.30 0.05 0.49 0.85 0.01 1.05 Major importers : 20.67 29.79 20.58 45.73 1.92 0.14 23.25 Brazil : 0.96 1.75 1.85 3.45 0.00 0.00 1.11 Mexico : 0.28 0.96 1.60 2.05 0.25 0.04 0.51 China : 15.11 21.10 1.83 20.80 0.03 0.00 17.21 Europe : 1.88 2.13 6.22 6.75 1.38 0.05 2.05 Turkey : 0.56 3.80 1.65 5.28 0.10 0.00 0.63 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.88 0.05 7.42 7.41 0.16 0.05 1.74 Indonesia : 0.10 0.02 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.05 0.07 South Korea : 0.51 4/ 1.25 1.30 0.05 0.00 0.41 ================================================================================ 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.61 million bales in 1996/97 and 1.81 million in 1997/98. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-342-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : ================================================================================ : : 1998/99 (Projected) World : August : 40.43 86.15 26.06 88.27 25.85 0.19 38.35 September : 40.51 85.34 25.86 88.00 25.68 0.27 37.76 United States : August : 3.90 14.26 0.10 10.80 4.90 -0.04 2.60 September : 3.88 13.56 0.30 10.70 4.60 0.04 2.40 Total foreign : August : 36.53 71.89 25.96 77.47 20.95 0.23 35.75 September : 36.64 71.77 25.56 77.30 21.08 0.23 35.36 Major exporters 5/ : August : 11.57 40.13 0.60 24.31 15.71 0.08 12.20 September : 11.58 40.71 0.60 24.31 15.83 0.08 12.67 Pakistan Aug : 1.49 7.50 0.10 7.30 0.20 0.03 1.57 Sep : 1.49 7.50 0.10 7.30 0.20 0.03 1.57 India Aug : 3.18 12.50 0.25 12.70 0.15 0.00 3.08 Sep : 3.18 12.50 0.25 12.70 0.15 0.00 3.08 Central Asia 6/Aug : 1.92 7.37 0.01 1.16 5.90 0.00 2.23 Sep : 1.92 7.37 0.01 1.16 5.80 0.00 2.33 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Aug : 0.80 4.31 4/ 0.34 3.76 0.00 1.00 Sep : 0.80 4.31 4/ 0.34 3.73 0.00 1.04 S. Hemis 8/ Aug : 2.67 5.71 0.23 1.36 4.30 0.03 2.92 Sep : 2.67 6.11 0.23 1.36 4.50 0.03 3.13 Australia Aug : 1.25 2.80 4/ 0.23 2.50 0.00 1.32 Sep : 1.25 3.20 4/ 0.23 2.70 0.00 1.53 Argentina Aug : 1.05 1.60 0.03 0.49 1.00 0.01 1.18 Sep : 1.05 1.60 0.03 0.49 1.00 0.01 1.18 Major importers Aug : 23.15 28.36 19.53 45.37 3.97 0.14 21.56 Sep : 23.25 27.51 19.33 45.45 3.82 0.14 20.68 Brazil Aug : 1.11 1.80 1.80 3.60 0.00 0.00 1.11 Sep : 1.11 1.80 1.70 3.50 0.00 0.00 1.11 Mexico Aug : 0.51 1.00 1.45 2.20 0.15 0.04 0.57 Sep : 0.51 1.00 1.45 2.20 0.15 0.04 0.57 China Aug : 17.11 19.50 1.00 20.30 2.00 0.00 15.31 Sep : 17.21 18.80 0.75 20.30 2.00 0.00 14.46 Europe Aug : 2.07 2.31 6.30 6.82 1.57 0.05 2.24 Sep : 2.05 2.16 6.30 6.82 1.42 0.05 2.22 Turkey Aug : 0.63 3.70 1.80 5.40 0.10 0.00 0.63 Sep : 0.63 3.70 1.80 5.40 0.10 0.00 0.63 Sel. Asia 9/ Aug : 1.72 0.05 7.18 7.05 0.15 0.05 1.70 Sep : 1.74 0.05 7.33 7.23 0.15 0.05 1.69 Indonesia Aug : 0.07 0.02 1.65 1.60 0.00 0.05 0.09 Sep : 0.07 0.02 1.75 1.70 0.00 0.05 0.09 S. Korea Aug : 0.41 4/ 1.25 1.25 0.05 0.00 0.36 Sep : 0.41 4/ 1.25 1.25 0.05 0.00 0.36 ================================================================================ 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.58 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-342-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1997 : III : 6603 4196 10939 6864 1411 8398 19337 1606 38.8 IV : 6258 4766 11167 6831 1428 8383 19550 1667 38.2 Annual : 25384 17244 43209 27271 5478 33258 76467 6460 156.6 : 1998 : I : 6215 4687 11038 6845 1290 8258 19296 1637 39.2 II : 6463 4430 11015 6977 1321 8439 19454 1635 40.9 III *: 6725 4675 11514 6975 1350 8455 19969 1660 38.9 IV *: 6250 5000 11373 7000 1350 8475 19848 1690 38.7 Annual : Aug Proj : 25778 18792 45068 27805 5335 33658 78726 6621 157.9 Sep Proj : 25653 18792 44940 27797 5311 33627 78567 6622 157.8 : 1999 : I *: 5900 4850 10871 7100 1200 8435 19306 1665 39.8 II *: 5975 4775 10863 7400 1350 8895 19758 1675 41.5 Annual : Aug Proj : 23850 19550 43865 29200 5300 35045 78910 6765 160.1 Sep Proj : 23900 19550 43915 29200 5300 35045 78960 6765 160.1 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1997 : III : 65.65 54.45 62.0 68.2 79.7 12.63 IV : 66.61 43.53 54.0 66.5 88.2 14.53 Annual : 66.32 51.36 58.8 64.9 81.2 13.34 : 1998 : I : 61.73 34.74 56.4 55.1 79.0 14.60 II : 64.16 39.42 61.0 59.1 66.5 13.73 III *: 59-60 32-33 70-71 62-63 76-77 15.10-15.30 IV *: 61-65 27-29 60-64 65-69 80-84 16.30-16.80 Annual : Aug Proj : 63-64 34-35 61-63 60-61 74-76 14.55-14.75 Sep Proj : 62-63 33-34 62-63 60-61 75-77 14.90-15.10 1999 : I *: 68-74 31-33 56-60 54-58 72-78 14.15-14.95 II *: 71-77 34-36 57-61 58-62 62-68 12.85-13.85 Annual : Aug Proj : 70-76 34-37 56-61 60-64 70-76 13.15-14.15 Sep Proj : 69-75 32-35 56-61 60-64 70-76 13.35-14.35 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-342-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1997 : 377 25490 2343 28210 2136 465 25609 66.9 1998 Proj. Aug : 465 25884 2615 28964 2100 400 26464 68.5 Sep : 465 25759 2536 28760 2110 400 26250 68.0 1999 Proj. Aug : 400 23956 2760 27116 2155 350 24611 63.2 Sep : 400 24006 2760 27166 2155 350 24661 63.3 : PORK : 1997 : 366 17274 633 18273 1044 408 16821 48.7 1998 Proj. Aug : 408 18822 585 19815 1260 475 18080 51.9 Sep : 408 18822 640 19870 1245 475 18150 52.1 1999 Proj. Aug : 475 19580 570 20625 1300 490 18835 53.6 Sep : 475 19580 700 20755 1300 490 18965 54.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1997 : 759 43358 3059 47176 3185 895 43096 117.8 1998 Proj. Aug : 895 45217 3298 49410 3368 892 45150 122.4 Sep : 895 45089 3272 49256 3362 892 45002 122.0 1999 Proj. Aug : 892 44014 3415 48321 3463 857 44001 118.5 Sep : 892 44064 3545 48501 3463 857 44181 119.0 : BROILERS : 1997 : 641 27041 5 27687 4664 607 22416 72.7 1998 Proj. Aug : 607 27566 4 28177 5066 600 22511 72.4 Sep : 607 27558 5 28169 5008 600 22561 72.5 1999 Proj. Aug : 600 28943 4 29547 5125 650 23772 75.8 Sep : 600 28943 4 29547 5025 650 23872 76.1 : TURKEYS : 1997 : 328 5412 1 5741 598 415 4727 17.6 1998 Proj. Aug : 415 5270 1 5686 510 400 4775 17.7 Sep : 415 5246 1 5663 461 400 4801 17.8 1999 Proj. Aug : 400 5235 1 5636 580 400 4655 17.1 Sep : 400 5235 1 5636 500 400 4735 17.4 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1997 : 975 32964 6 33944 5646 1029 27269 90.8 1998 Proj. Aug : 1029 33355 5 34389 6014 1007 27367 90.3 Sep : 1029 33324 6 34359 5904 1007 27447 90.6 1999 Proj. Aug : 1007 34724 5 35736 6117 1055 28563 93.3 Sep : 1007 34724 5 35736 5937 1055 28743 93.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1997 : 1734 76322 3065 81120 8831 1924 70364 208.6 1998 Proj. Aug : 1924 78572 3303 83799 9382 1899 72517 212.7 Sep : 1924 78413 3278 83615 9266 1899 72449 212.6 1999 Proj. Aug : 1899 78738 3420 84057 9580 1912 72564 211.9 Sep : 1899 78788 3550 84237 9400 1912 72924 213.0 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-342-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1998 Projected : 1999 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1996 : 1997 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.2 8.5 7.4 7.4 10.0 10.0 Production : 6371.3 6459.8 6620.9 6622.3 6765.0 6765.0 Imports : 5.4 6.9 6.2 5.9 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6387.9 6475.2 6634.5 6635.6 6779.0 6779.0 : Use : Exports : 253.1 227.8 231.7 226.2 243.0 243.0 Hatching use : 863.8 894.8 926.1 921.1 970.0 970.0 Ending stocks : 8.5 7.4 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5262.4 5345.2 5467.0 5478.3 5556.0 5556.0 Per capita (number) : 237.8 239.4 242.7 243.2 244.5 244.5 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Proj 1/: 1998/99 Proj 1/ Commodity :1995/96:1996/97:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.9 5.9 5.9 5.4 5.4 Production : 154.1 156.4 157.3 157.2 159.5 159.5 Farm use : 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 152.5 155.0 156.0 155.8 158.2 158.2 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 Total cml. supply 2/ : 159.9 162.7 165.1 165.1 166.8 166.8 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.9 156.1 158.9 158.9 160.5 160.5 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.9 5.9 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 1.1 2.7 4.7 4.5 3.7 3.7 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) : 13.50 11.88 13.15- 13.25- 11.85- 12.30- : 13.25 13.35 12.75 13.10 All milk 5/ : 14.49 13.53 14.45- 14.45- 13.45- 14.00- : 14.55 14.55 14.35 14.80 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 24 24 24 15 15 Cheese : 5 10 7 8 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 84 222 390 370 305 305 Dry whole milk : 7 7 15 15 9 9 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-342-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 17-year record of the differences between the September projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the September projection and the final estimate have averaged 10.8 million tons (2.1%) ranging from -30.7 to 13.1 million tons. The September projection has been below the estimate 10 times and above 7 times. Reliability of September Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.1 10.8 -30.7 13.1 10 7 U.S. : 1.1 0.7 -1.4 2.5 7 10 Foreign : 2.3 10.6 -30.9 12.0 10 7 Exports : World : 4.0 4.5 -13.5 6.2 11 6 U.S. : 9.6 3.3 -10.0 7.2 7 10 Foreign : 4.7 3.7 -11.5 4.4 11 6 Domestic use : World : 1.6 8.4 -23.4 10.0 11 6 U.S. : 6.5 2.0 -3.7 3.6 9 8 Foreign : 1.5 7.5 -21.0 12.3 13 4 Ending stocks : World : 7.4 9.0 -26.0 14.3 10 7 U.S. : 14.6 3.5 -9.1 12.4 8 9 Foreign : 7.7 7.3 -25.4 7.4 10 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.6 13.0 -39.4 21.7 13 4 U.S. : 4.1 9.1 -21.5 26.0 12 5 Foreign : 1.6 9.6 -23.3 11.6 11 6 Exports : World : 5.8 6.0 -11.5 16.5 11 6 U.S. : 15.5 8.2 -19.0 14.5 7 10 Foreign : 13.3 6.6 -13.6 12.7 9 8 Domestic use : World : 1.2 9.4 -29.1 19.8 7 10 U.S. : 3.9 6.9 -15.8 13.2 10 7 Foreign : 1.4 8.6 -20.2 17.5 10 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.6 14.3 -43.2 9.0 12 5 U.S. : 20.7 10.7 -32.2 13.5 9 8 Foreign : 12.2 8.3 -16.8 7.7 14 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.3 7.4 -24.1 3.4 15 2 U.S. : 4.5 0.2 -0.5 0.4 9 7 Foreign : 2.3 7.4 -24.4 3.6 15 2 Exports : World : 8.4 1.4 -4.5 0.8 11 6 U.S. : 8.7 0.2 -0.7 0.9 7 9 Foreign : 9.6 1.3 -4.6 0.7 12 5 Domestic use : World : 1.8 5.6 -22.7 3.0 13 4 U.S. : 5.5 0.1 -0.3 0.4 9 8 Foreign : 1.8 5.7 -23.1 3.2 13 4 Ending stocks : World : 12.0 4.0 -7.5 5.2 13 4 U.S. : 14.8 0.2 -0.9 0.2 10 7 Foreign : 12.9 4.0 -7.3 6.1 13 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-342-30 Reliability of September Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.3 3.6 -9.3 4.7 10 7 U.S. : 4.4 2.4 -5.5 4.6 9 8 Foreign : 5.4 2.9 -9.6 4.6 8 9 Exports : World : 5.5 1.6 -4.2 2.5 12 5 U.S. : 10.0 2.0 -4.6 5.5 10 7 Foreign : 16.9 1.3 -3.8 2.3 7 10 Domestic use : World : 3.0 3.4 -9.3 3.1 10 7 U.S. : 4.0 1.5 -4.2 1.5 12 5 Foreign : 3.6 2.7 -5.9 3.7 11 6 Ending stocks : World : 15.8 2.7 -6.6 6.8 10 7 U.S. : 27.9 2.0 -3.5 4.8 5 12 Foreign : 17.1 1.8 -4.3 3.2 10 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.7 3.0 -10.9 9.5 10 7 U.S. : 4.9 0.7 -1.9 2.4 9 7 Foreign : 4.3 2.9 -11.2 9.8 9 8 Exports : World : 4.4 1.0 -3.3 1.8 8 9 U.S. : 15.5 0.8 -2.1 2.0 9 8 Foreign : 6.5 1.1 -3.3 2.1 7 10 Mill use : World : 2.4 2.0 -6.6 3.2 6 11 U.S. : 5.9 0.5 -1.1 0.9 11 4 Foreign : 2.4 1.8 -5.9 4.0 6 10 Ending stocks : World : 13.4 4.5 -12.7 12.5 11 6 U.S. : 29.9 1.2 -2.3 2.5 7 10 Foreign : 13.8 4.2 -13.2 10.9 10 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-96/97 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1997/98 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 17 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-342-31 Reliability of United States September Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 4.4 333 -846 885 11 6 Exports : 16.3 294 -725 550 6 11 Domestic use : 4.3 254 -553 430 11 6 Ending stocks : 24.2 388 -1321 490 9 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 5.0 33 -69 81 9 7 Exports : 18.6 45 -115 97 8 8 Domestic use : 9.1 44 -114 78 10 7 Ending stocks : 44.7 59 -155 112 4 13 : BARLEY : Production : 2.6 12 -29 36 8 9 Exports : 34.3 22 -82 38 9 7 Domestic use : 7.0 27 -47 72 9 6 Ending stocks : 13.3 25 -61 70 7 10 : OATS : Production : 5.6 15 -19 44 4 12 Exports : 90.8 2 -5 8 5 9 Domestic use : 4.4 17 -39 30 7 10 Ending stocks : 15.8 21 -40 47 11 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.9 1134 -2388 1342 12 5 Exports : 10.6 703 -1700 741 8 9 Domestic use : 3.3 716 -1550 1075 13 4 Ending stocks : 34.0 79 -179 368 6 8 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.8 526 -1260 791 11 6 Exports : 25.8 390 -1250 1165 10 7 Domestic use : 2.8 339 -985 300 13 4 Ending stocks : 30.3 433 -975 1143 7 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.5 830 -566 2438 9 6 Pork : 2.6 414 -1315 1242 6 9 Broilers : 1.8 357 -629 622 12 3 Turkeys : 2.2 83 -123 235 12 3 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.6 96 -111 188 10 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.4 2.0 -6.8 4.6 8 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-96/97 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1997/98 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 17 for crops and 15 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1997 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1996/97 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS.