WASDE-412 July 12, 2004 Note: This report adopts U.S. area, yield, and production forecasts for winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For other crops, area estimates reflect the June 30 NASS Acreage report, and methods used to project yield are noted on each table. Survey-based area, yield, and production forecasts reported by NASS will be adopted in the August 12 issue of this report. WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are nearly unchanged from last month. Total wheat production is forecast at 2.059 billion bushels, down slightly from last month and down 277 million bushels from last year. Forecast winter wheat production is 61 million bushels below last month due to lower yields. The first survey-based spring wheat (including durum) production forecast is up from last month's projection due to larger planted area estimates in the June 30 Acreage report and a higher yield. In addition, the harvested-to- planted ratio is higher than assumed last month. Supplies are nearly unchanged from last month with larger reported carryin stocks but imports 5 million bushels lower. Expected use is fractionally lower than last month. Ending stocks are down 1 million bushels from last month and down 52 million bushels from last year. The projected 2004/05 price range is $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, down 5 cents on each end of the range from last month. Projected 2004/05 world wheat production is up from last month and although use also increases, ending stocks are up nearly 6 million tons from last month and are almost 2 million tons above the previous year. This would be the first year-to-year increase in ending stocks since 1999/2000. Foreign production is up from last month with notable increases forecast for China, the EU-25, Romania, and Russia. Global trade and consumption are little changed from last month with the notable exception of a 0.5- million-ton increase forecast for Pakistan's imports. Also, Morocco's imports rise and Romania's imports fall from last month's projections. Because of a larger crop and an increase in carryin stocks, China's supplies are up 2.5 million tons from last month. The increased supply is expected to boost ending stocks from last month's projection, but stocks will be down 8 million tons year-to-year. Similarly, the nearly 1-million-ton increase in EU-25 production, although partially offset by a decline in carryin stocks, is forecast to result in an increase in ending stocks. Relative to last month, the ending stocks of Russia are up due to increased production and Kazakhstan's stocks are up due to larger beginning stocks. COARSE GRAINS: The 2004/05 outlook for U.S. feed grains is for bigger production, rising use, and larger ending stocks. Projected 2004/05 corn production is raised 210 million bushels from last month to a record 10.635 billion bushels, up 521 million bushels from last year. The larger crop reflects larger planted area in the June 30 Acreage report; no change is made to projected yield. Forecast sorghum production is 20 million bushels lower based on smaller planted and harvested area reported in the June 30 Acreage report. The first survey-based production forecast for barley is up slightly from last month's projection while oats is lower. Other than a 50-million-bushel increase in corn feed and residual, no other changes are made in 2004/05 corn use. Corn ending stocks are projected to be 991 million bushels, up 250 million bushels from last month and 95 million bushels more than last year. The projected 2004/05 corn price range is $2.30 to $2.70 per bushel, down 25 cents on each end of the range from last month. Forecast U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of corn are up 90 million bushels from last month due to a 100-million-bushel reduction in exports that is partially offset by a 10-million-bushel increase in food, seed, and industrial use. Exports are lowered because of the slow pace of export shipments, cancellation of some sales, and increased competition from Argentina. Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply and use projections are up from last month, largely because of the bigger U.S. corn crop. Other changes in coarse grain production include Romania and Russia (both up 1 million tons), Canada (down 0.8 million tons), and Ukraine (up 0.5 million tons). With numerous minor changes in corn trade, global corn imports decline marginally from last month. Global coarse grain stocks are increased nearly 10 million tons from last month, due mainly to the 6.35-million-ton increase in U.S. corn ending stocks. Despite this increase, global stocks would be the lowest since 1976/77. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2004/05 is projected at a record 223 million cwt, 2.5 percent above last month and 12 percent above 2003/04. Estimated harvested area of 3.32 million acres reported in the NASS Acreage report is 82,000 acres above last month, 321,000 acres above 2003/04 and the highest since 1999/2000. The projected yield for 2004/05 is unchanged at a record 6,721 pounds per acre. Long-grain rice production is projected at 164 million cwt, nearly 1 percent above last month and 10 percent above 2003/04. Combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at 59 million cwt, 7 percent above last month, nearly 18 percent above 2003/04, and the largest crop since 2000/01. Beginning stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 23.8 million cwt, nearly 9 percent above last month. Projected imports for 2004/05 are raised slightly to 15 million cwt. On the use side, domestic and residual use and exports are increased from a month ago. Domestic and residual use is projected at 120.1 million cwt, about 2 percent above last month, and nearly 3.5 percent above 2003/04. Exports in 2004/05 are projected at 114 million cwt, nearly 3 percent above last month, and about 13 percent above the revised 2003/04 estimate. Milled and brown rice exports are projected at 77 million cwt (rough basis), nearly 6 percent above last month, while rough rice exports are projected at 37 million cwt, about 3 percent above 2003/04. Ending stocks are projected at 27.7 million cwt, nearly 12 percent above last month, and 16.5 percent above 2003/04. The season-average farm price range for 2004/05 is lowered $2.00 per cwt on each end to $6.25 to $6.75 per cwt compared to $7.45 per cwt for 2003/04. The lower price is based on expected weaker global prices and a narrowing of the price premium between U.S. and major competitors. Projected global 2004/05 production and ending stocks are increased from a month ago, while imports, exports, and consumption are nearly unchanged. World production is projected at 405.2 million tons, 5.4 million tons above a month ago, and up 18.6 million tons from 2003/04. The increase in global production is primarily due to a larger crop projected for China. China's 2004/05 rice crop is projected at 126.0 million tons, 4 percent above last month, 12 percent above 2003/04, and the largest crop since 2000/01. The increase is based in part on data from the Government of China that show a larger increase in area than projected a month ago. Global ending stocks in 2004/05 are projected at 70.9 million tons, nearly 6.0 million tons above last month, but 12.1 million tons below the revised 2003/04 estimate. Projected ending stocks are up primarily in China, Japan, and Thailand. Note: The rice consumption and stocks series for Japan are revised from 1989/90 to 2004/05 based in part on official stocks information from the Government of Japan and further analysis. Additionally, the rice consumption and stocks series for Thailand are revised from 1999/2000 to 2004/05 based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Bangkok and further analysis. OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean crush for 2003/04 is forecast at 1,500 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from last month. The increase reflects higher-than-expected domestic soybean meal use through the end of the third quarter as returns to livestock production remain favorable. The residual is reduced this month. Supply estimates and reported use through May coupled with the June 1 stocks estimate indicate a sharply lower residual for 2003/04. Projected ending stocks for 2003/04 are reduced to 105 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from last month. Ending stocks would be the lowest since 1976/77. U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 6.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from last month. U.S. oilseed production is projected at 89.4 million tons, down 0.8 million tons from last month primarily reflecting reduced soybean production. Soybean production is projected at 2.94 billion bushels (80.0 million tons), down 25 million bushels from last month because harvested area reported in the June 30 Acreage report is below last month's projection. The projected yield is also lowered slightly, reflecting State planted area estimates. Sunflowerseed production is also reduced as producers reported less area planted than indicated in March. U.S. 2004/05 soybean ending stocks are reduced to 210 million bushels as reduced supplies are only partially offset by lower use. Soybean exports for 2004/05 are projected at 1,050 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from last month. Lower exports reflect reduced Canadian import demand and increased competition from South America as reduced imports by China for 2003/04 result in higher 2004/05 beginning stocks in South America. U.S. soybean crush is projected slightly lower due to reduced soybean meal exports. Soybean oil production and stocks are both reduced due to lower soybean crush. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2004/05 is projected at $5.70 to $6.70 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Projected soybean meal and soybean oil price projections are also unchanged at $185 to $215 per short ton and 24.5 to 28.5 cents per pound, respectively. Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is increased 0.8 million tons to a record 379.1 million tons. Foreign oilseed production is projected up 1.5 million tons, more than offsetting a reduction for the United States. Sunflowerseed production is increased for Romania as good early-season weather has improved yield prospects. Other changes include increased cottonseed production for China and India, and increased soybean and rapeseed production for Canada. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2004/05 is decreased 131,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower beginning stocks and production. Processors' reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency put 2004/05 production at 8.48 million tons, down 110,000 tons from last month's projection. On the use side, exports are increased 50,000 tons, due to higher expected sales of sugar for re-export. For 2003/04, lower production more than offsets higher imports, bringing down ending stocks by 21,000 tons. Production is decreased 96,000 tons based on processors' reports. Imports for re- export and non-program imports are increased 85,000 tons while exports are increased 10,000 tons, based on pace to date. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada in 2003, forecasts for 2004 and 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 are raised slightly from last month. The increase reflects higher pork output as production forecasts for other meats are unchanged. The June 25 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers remain cautious in their expansion plans. However, expectations of continued favorable returns and moderating feed prices result in higher pork production forecasts for late 2004 and 2005. Forecasts for 2004 beef and poultry production are adjusted slightly to reflect the pace of slaughter in the second quarter. Demand strength continues to support livestock and poultry markets and forecast prices are raised from last month. The forecast Choice steer price for 2004 is raised to $85 to $87 per cwt and the average hog price is raised to $48 to $49 per cwt. Forecast broiler and turkey prices for 2004 are also increased. For 2005, broiler prices are raised in expectation that production increases will remain moderate despite favorable returns. The milk production forecast for 2004/05 is unchanged from last month. Production in 2003/04 is reduced fractionally as growth in output per cow is lowered slightly from last month. The all milk price forecasts for both 2003/04 and 2004/05 are reduced to $15.60 to $15.70 and $13.15 to $14.05 per cwt as lower prices for Class III products more than offset increases in forecast Class IV prices. The Class III milk price forecast is reduced to reflect the sharp declines in cheese prices in recent weeks. Forecast Class IV prices are raised in response to expected continued strength in butter prices. COTTON: This month's U.S. projections for 2004/05 include higher production and lower exports, resulting in larger ending stocks. The production estimate is raised 2.3 percent from last month to 18.0 million bales, as lower planted area indicated in the June 30 Acreage report is more than offset by a lower abandonment level; abandonment is reduced based on favorable conditions to date, especially in the Southwest. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are reduced slightly as higher foreign production will limit import demand. Ending stocks are raised 15 percent from last month to 4.5 million bales. Higher production and beginning stocks are boosting 2004/05 world cotton supplies relative to last month. Late-season adjustments are raising 2003/04 ending stocks, mainly for Brazil, India, Mexico, and Turkey. Production for 2004/05 is forecast 1.0 million bales higher in China based on recent evidence of higher planted area, especially in the high-yielding far Western region. In addition to the United States and China, production also is increased in India, and Uzbekistan, but reduced in Australia and Greece. In response to larger world supplies, world consumption is raised slightly but world trade is reduced. Accordingly, world stocks are raised to 37.8 million bales, about 7 percent above last month and about 15 percent above the beginning level. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: JOSEPH J. JEN ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on Aug. 12, 2004. 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WASDE-412-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 1,816.75 2,352.03 241.23 1,910.46 441.58 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,836.55 2,278.12 231.53 1,937.70 340.42 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 1,925.09 2,260.02 232.30 1,963.18 296.84 July : 1,941.98 2,282.41 232.64 1,964.03 318.38 Wheat : 2002/03 : 566.86 768.74 108.49 601.60 167.14 2003/04 (Est.) : 550.48 717.62 106.65 587.17 130.45 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 593.43 722.18 103.63 595.75 126.43 July : 598.00 728.45 104.08 596.21 132.24 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 871.72 1,066.27 104.14 900.97 165.30 2003/04 (Est.) : 899.43 1,064.73 99.72 937.72 127.01 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 931.84 1,055.60 103.36 950.10 105.49 July : 938.75 1,065.76 103.15 950.48 115.29 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 378.16 517.02 28.60 407.88 109.14 2003/04 (Est.) : 386.63 495.77 25.16 412.81 82.96 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 399.82 482.25 25.31 417.33 64.92 July : 405.23 488.19 25.41 417.34 70.85 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 293.96 366.51 72.97 248.39 45.14 2003/04 (Est.) : 345.66 395.50 89.72 262.71 43.07 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 347.02 392.03 89.71 264.78 37.54 July : 352.05 399.67 89.80 265.42 44.45 Wheat : 2002/03 : 43.71 66.96 23.25 30.34 13.37 2003/04 (Est.) : 63.59 78.87 31.43 32.58 14.86 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 56.08 72.58 26.54 32.58 13.46 July : 56.04 72.53 26.54 32.55 13.45 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 243.72 291.32 45.87 214.52 30.94 2003/04 (Est.) : 275.70 308.96 55.06 226.46 27.45 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 284.03 311.39 59.65 228.45 23.29 July : 288.93 318.82 59.65 229.05 30.13 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.54 0.83 2003/04 (Est.) : 6.37 7.67 3.23 3.68 0.76 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 6.91 8.07 3.52 3.75 0.79 July : 7.08 8.32 3.62 3.82 0.88 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-412-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 1,522.79 1,985.53 168.26 1,662.07 396.44 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,490.89 1,882.62 141.81 1,674.98 297.36 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 1,578.07 1,867.99 142.59 1,698.40 259.30 July : 1,589.93 1,882.73 142.84 1,698.61 273.93 Wheat : 2002/03 : 523.16 701.78 85.24 571.26 153.77 2003/04 (Est.) : 486.89 638.75 75.22 554.59 115.59 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 537.35 649.60 77.10 563.17 112.96 July : 541.96 655.92 77.55 563.66 118.79 Coarse grains 5/ : 2002/03 : 628.00 774.95 58.28 686.46 134.36 2003/04 (Est.) : 623.73 755.77 44.67 711.27 99.56 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 647.80 744.21 43.71 721.65 82.21 July : 649.82 746.94 43.51 721.43 85.16 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 371.63 508.80 24.74 404.35 108.31 2003/04 (Est.) : 380.26 488.09 21.93 409.12 82.20 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 392.92 474.18 21.79 413.57 64.13 July : 398.15 479.88 21.79 413.52 69.97 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2002/03 : 88.28 135.59 30.35 98.65 36.65 2003/04 (Est.) : 93.89 130.55 32.95 98.39 32.93 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 102.88 134.91 31.28 99.86 35.35 July : 104.73 137.66 30.65 100.16 37.79 : United States 2002/03 : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.39 2003/04 (Est.) : 18.26 23.69 13.80 6.30 3.60 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 17.60 21.24 11.50 5.80 3.90 July : 18.00 21.64 11.30 5.80 4.50 : Foreign 3/ 2002/03 : 71.07 110.87 18.45 91.37 31.27 2003/04 (Est.) : 75.64 106.86 19.15 92.09 29.33 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 85.28 113.67 19.78 94.06 31.45 July : 86.73 116.02 19.35 94.36 33.29 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-412-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 329.70 366.97 71.32 267.56 44.10 2003/04 (Est.) : 335.88 379.97 69.68 282.70 37.81 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 378.32 415.34 77.65 301.08 50.84 July : 379.10 416.91 77.96 301.36 51.59 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 184.83 190.62 53.23 187.24 4.95 2003/04 (Est.) : 194.64 199.59 59.02 194.87 4.72 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 207.62 212.33 61.10 206.36 5.41 July : 207.78 212.50 61.19 206.49 5.40 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 94.92 103.18 35.85 96.16 6.58 2003/04 (Est.) : 101.19 107.76 37.39 100.35 6.55 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 105.46 111.83 39.07 104.68 6.54 July : 105.63 112.18 39.11 104.74 6.59 : : United States Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 83.94 91.36 29.45 47.52 5.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 75.62 82.15 25.53 44.67 3.76 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 90.20 94.98 29.86 48.95 7.01 July : 89.44 94.00 29.48 48.64 6.67 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 36.62 38.09 5.65 32.20 0.24 2003/04 (Est.) : 34.29 36.32 4.02 32.09 0.20 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 37.80 39.30 5.22 33.81 0.27 July : 37.63 39.13 5.13 33.73 0.27 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 9.20 12.05 1.24 9.91 0.90 2003/04 (Est.) : 8.51 11.15 0.67 9.83 0.66 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 9.43 11.84 0.78 10.25 0.81 July : 9.35 11.78 0.77 10.23 0.78 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 245.76 275.62 41.87 220.05 38.26 2003/04 (Est.) : 260.26 297.83 44.15 238.03 34.05 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 288.12 320.36 47.79 252.14 43.83 July : 289.65 322.90 48.48 252.72 44.92 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 148.21 152.53 47.58 155.04 4.71 2003/04 (Est.) : 160.35 163.27 55.00 162.78 4.52 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 169.82 173.03 55.88 172.55 5.14 July : 170.15 173.37 56.06 172.76 5.13 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 85.72 91.13 34.61 86.25 5.68 2003/04 (Est.) : 92.68 96.61 36.72 90.52 5.89 2004/05 (Proj.) : June : 96.04 99.99 38.29 94.43 5.73 July : 96.28 100.40 38.34 94.51 5.81 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-412-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 60.3 61.7 59.5 * 59.9 Harvested : 45.8 52.8 50.4 * 50.7 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.0 44.2 40.9 * 40.6 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 777 491 541 546 Production : 1,606 2,337 2,061 2,059 Imports : 77 70 65 60 Supply, total : 2,460 2,898 2,667 2,665 Food : 918 900 915 915 Seed : 84 80 82 81 Feed and residual : 113 217 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,115 1,197 1,197 1,196 Exports : 854 1,155 975 975 Use, total : 1,969 2,352 2,172 2,171 Ending stocks : 491 546 495 494 CCC inventory : 66 61 Free stocks : 425 485 Outstanding loans : 51 37 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.56 3.40 3.25- 3.85 3.20- 3.80 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2003/04 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,063 500 379 298 97 2,337 Supply, total 3/ : 1,252 655 462 384 145 2,898 Domestic use : 512 234 253 122 76 1,197 Exports : 512 265 145 190 43 1,155 Use, total : 1,024 499 398 312 119 2,352 Ending stocks, total : 228 156 64 72 26 546 : 2004/05 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 228 156 64 72 26 546 Production : 838 459 383 290 89 2,059 Supply, total 3/ : 1,067 624 459 370 145 2,665 Domestic use : 481 260 255 116 84 1,196 Exports : 380 230 150 185 30 975 Use, total : 861 490 405 301 114 2,171 Ending stocks, total : 206 134 54 69 31 494 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June Crop Production. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using 10-year average harvested-to-planted ratios and projected yield derived from 1985-2003 trend yield. For July: Area planted, area harvested, yield and production as reported in July Crop Production report. WASDE-412-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.5 98.1 96.6 * 98.0 * Harvested : 82.6 85.8 85.3 * 86.4 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.95 3.21 3.33 3.34 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.0 30.9 24.9 27.4 Production : 243.6 275.5 283.8 288.7 Imports : 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 Supply, total : 291.0 308.6 311.0 318.5 Feed and residual : 149.3 155.7 154.3 155.2 Food, seed & industrial : 64.9 70.5 73.8 73.5 Domestic, total : 214.2 226.1 228.1 228.7 Exports : 45.9 55.1 59.6 59.6 Use, total : 260.1 281.2 287.8 288.4 Ending stocks, total : 30.9 27.4 23.3 30.1 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 Free stocks : 30.8 27.4 Outstanding loans : 7.1 4.7 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.9 78.7 79.0 * 81.0 * Harvested : 69.3 71.1 71.9 * 73.4 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 129.3 142.2 145.0 * 145.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,596 1,087 806 896 Production : 8,967 10,114 10,425 10,635 Imports : 14 10 15 15 Supply, total : 10,578 11,211 11,246 11,546 Feed and residual : 5,558 5,800 5,725 5,775 Food, seed & industrial : 2,340 2,565 2,680 2,680 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 996 1,195 1,300 1,300 Domestic, total : 7,898 8,365 8,405 8,455 Exports : 1,592 1,950 2,100 2,100 Use, total : 9,491 10,315 10,505 10,555 Ending stocks, total : 1,087 896 741 991 CCC inventory : 5 1 Free stocks : 1,082 895 Outstanding loans : 277 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.32 2.40- 2.45 2.55- 2.95 2.30- 2.70 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For June, planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 2004, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres for corn projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001. Corn yield projected from a linear trend fit over 1960-2003 (1988 omitted), adjusted for planting progress. For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. Corn yield projected from a linear trend fit over 1960-2003 (1988 omitted), adjusted for planting progress. WASDE-412-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.4 8.6 * 8.1 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.1 7.8 7.3 * 6.9 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 50.6 52.7 62.6 * 62.9 * Beginning stocks : 61 43 44 44 Production : 361 411 455 435 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 422 454 499 479 Feed and residual : 169 190 190 180 Food, seed & industrial : 24 20 35 25 Total domestic : 193 210 225 205 Exports : 186 200 225 225 Use, total : 379 410 450 430 Ending stocks, total : 43 44 49 49 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.32 2.35- 2.40 2.50- 2.90 2.25- 2.65 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.3 4.7 * 4.7 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.1 4.7 4.1 * 4.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.0 58.9 62.5 * 63.5 * Beginning stocks : 92 69 108 120 Production : 227 276 255 264 Imports : 18 20 20 20 Supply, total : 337 365 383 404 Feed and residual : 65 54 80 80 Food, seed & industrial : 173 172 172 172 Total domestic : 238 226 252 252 Exports : 30 19 25 25 Use, total : 268 245 277 277 Ending stocks, total : 69 120 106 127 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.72 2.83 2.60- 3.00 2.40- 2.80 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 4.6 4.3 * 4.2 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.1 2.2 2.1 * 1.9 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.4 65.0 62.9 * 62.9 * Beginning stocks : 63 50 64 65 Production : 116 145 130 122 Imports : 95 90 90 90 Supply, total : 274 284 284 277 Feed and residual : 150 144 145 135 Food, seed & industrial : 72 73 74 74 Total domestic : 222 217 219 209 Exports : 3 3 3 3 Use, total : 224 220 222 212 Ending stocks, total : 50 65 62 65 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.81 1.48 1.45- 1.75 1.35- 1.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For June-- planted acres reported in March 31, 2004 Prospective Plantings. Harvested Area-- For Sorghum harvested acres is the five year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 1998-2003 (excluding 2002). For barley harvested acres is the three year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 2000-2003 (excluding 2002). For oats harvested acres reported in March 31, 2004 Prospective Plantings. Yield-- For sorghum 10 year (1994-2003) average yield. For barley and oats projected yield derived from 1960-2003 trend yield. For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Sorghum yield derived from 10 year (1994-2003) average yield adjusted for rounding. Barley and oats: Area, yield and production as reported in July Crop Production. WASDE-412-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.24 3.02 3.26 * 3.35 * Harvested : 3.21 3.00 3.24 * 3.32 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,578 6,645 6,721 * 6,721 * : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.0 26.8 21.9 23.8 Production : 211.0 199.2 217.5 223.0 Imports : 14.8 15.0 14.5 15.0 Supply, total : 264.8 240.9 253.9 261.8 Domestic & residual 3/ : 113.4 116.1 118.1 120.1 Exports, total 4/ : 124.6 101.0 111.0 114.0 Rough : 43.0 36.0 38.0 37.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.5 65.0 73.0 77.0 Use, total : 238.0 217.1 229.1 234.1 Ending stocks : 26.8 23.8 24.8 27.7 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.3 70.5 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.49 7.45 8.25- 8.75 6.25- 6.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.51 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,260 6,451 Beginning stocks : 26.8 15.7 12.2 13.9 Production : 157.2 149.0 162.5 164.0 Supply, total 7/ : 194.1 174.7 184.4 188.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 79.2 81.8 84.0 85.0 Exports 8/ : 99.2 79.0 86.0 88.0 Use, total : 178.4 160.8 170.0 173.0 Ending stocks : 15.7 13.9 14.4 15.2 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.69 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,729 7,299 Beginning stocks : 10.7 9.3 7.9 8.1 Production : 53.7 50.1 55.0 59.0 Supply, total 7/ : 68.9 64.4 67.7 71.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.3 34.3 34.1 35.1 Exports 8/ : 25.3 22.0 25.0 26.0 Use, total : 59.6 56.3 59.1 61.1 Ending stocks : 9.3 8.1 8.6 10.8 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.8. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For June: Planted acres reported in March 31, 2004 "Prospective Plantings". Harvested acres are estimated using average harvested-to-planted ratios by class of rice, 1999-2003. For July: Area planted and harvested as reported in June "Acreage" report. For June and July: Projected yield is derived using the average annual percentage increase in yield, 2001-2003. WASDE-412-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.0 73.4 75.4 * 74.8 ** Harvested : 72.5 72.3 74.1 * 73.7 ** : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.0 33.4 40.0 * 39.9 ** : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 208 178 115 105 Production : 2,756 2,418 2,965 2,940 Imports : 5 6 5 5 Supply, total : 2,969 2,602 3,085 3,050 Crushings : 1,615 1,500 1,650 1,645 Exports : 1,045 900 1,065 1,050 Seed : 89 91 91 91 Residual : 41 5 _3/ 59 55 Use, total : 2,791 2,497 2,865 2,841 Ending stocks : 178 105 220 210 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.53 7.55 5.70- 6.70 5.70 - 6.70 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,358 1,491 1,021 1,036 Production : 18,438 16,660 _4/ 18,565 18,505 Imports : 46 285 105 105 Supply, total : 20,843 18,436 19,691 19,646 Domestic : 17,091 16,550 17,300 17,300 Exports : 2,261 850 1,150 1,150 Use, total : 19,352 17,400 18,450 18,450 Ending stocks : 1,491 1,036 1,241 1,196 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.04 31.25 24.50- 24.50- : 28.50 28.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 240 220 175 175 Production : 38,213 35,530 _4/ 39,260 39,160 Imports : 166 325 165 165 Supply, total : 38,619 36,075 39,600 39,500 Domestic : 32,386 31,650 33,800 33,800 Exports : 6,013 4,250 5,550 5,450 Use, total : 38,399 35,900 39,350 39,250 Ending stocks : 220 175 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 181.57 270.00 185.00- 185.00- : 215.00 215.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through June 1, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate a below-average residual. 4/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,490 million bushels. *Planted acres reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted-to-harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1978-2002 regional trend analysis. **Planted and harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage report. Projected yield based on 1978-2002 regional trend analysis and reflects area distribution by state in the June 30 Acreage report. WASDE-412-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :===================== : : Estimate : June July ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,528 1,661 2,200 2,179 Production 2/ : 8,379 8,844 8,590 8,480 Beet sugar : 4,415 4,799 4,520 4,432 Cane sugar 3/ : 3,964 4,045 4,070 4,048 Imports : 1,730 1,744 1,591 1,591 TRQ 4/ : 1,210 1,224 1,206 1,206 Other program 5/ : 488 480 350 350 Other 6/ : 32 40 35 35 Supply, total : 11,637 12,249 12,381 12,250 : Exports : 142 210 150 200 Deliveries : 9,674 9,860 9,905 9,905 Food : 9,466 9,670 9,715 9,715 Other 7/ : 208 190 190 190 Miscellaneous 8/ : 160 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,976 10,070 10,055 10,105 Ending stocks : 1,661 2,179 2,326 2,145 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.6 21.6 23.1 21.2 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production for 2003/04 and 2004/05 are based on processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Other projections are based on analyses the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 3/ Production by state for 2003/04 (projected 2004/05): FL 2,151 (2,011); HI 256 (287); LA 1,458 (1,562); TX 180 (188); PR 0 (0). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2004/05, includes only the US commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus shortfall of 50,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 5/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/ Includes high-tier and other. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 8/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-412-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.96 13.48 14.40 * 13.95 * Harvested : 12.42 12.00 12.70 * 13.00 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 665 730 665 * 665 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 7.45 5.38 3.60 3.60 Production : 17.21 18.26 17.60 18.00 Imports : 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 24.72 23.69 21.24 21.64 Domestic use : 7.27 6.30 5.80 5.80 Exports : 11.90 13.80 11.50 11.30 Use, total : 19.17 20.10 17.30 17.10 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.17 -0.01 0.04 0.04 Ending stocks : 5.38 3.60 3.90 4.50 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 44.5 62.6 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2003/04 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-May. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * For June, planted area reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." For July, planted area reported in June 30 "Acreage." For both June and July, projected harvested area based on 1999-2003 U.S. average acreage abandonment; harvested area for July is further adjusted to reflect conditions to date. Projected yields for both June and July based on 1999-2003 U.S. average yield per harvested acre. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2003/04 is 17.8 percent. WASDE-412-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 201.87 566.86 107.59 112.44 601.60 108.49 167.14 United States : 21.15 43.71 2.11 3.08 30.34 23.25 13.37 Total foreign : 180.72 523.16 105.49 109.36 571.26 85.24 153.77 Major exporters 4/ : 30.84 163.04 14.60 66.87 135.99 45.25 27.23 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.16 6.76 1.53 Australia : 8.05 10.06 0.29 3.38 6.10 9.15 3.14 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.38 4.06 8.18 9.40 5.73 EU-25 5/ : 14.92 124.48 13.92 59.36 116.55 19.94 16.83 Major importers 6/ : 96.57 143.51 54.42 11.38 210.57 5.22 78.71 Brazil : 0.90 2.93 6.73 0.45 9.89 0.01 0.66 China : 76.59 90.29 0.42 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.38 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.67 16.64 10.27 1.55 26.44 0.50 6.65 N. Africa 8/ : 5.61 11.70 18.77 0.30 29.67 0.38 6.04 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.19 0.40 18.38 1.19 1.44 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.65 0.00 9.30 1.63 9.06 0.37 1.53 Selected other : India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.29 4.85 15.70 FSU-12 : 16.64 96.96 4.10 23.91 73.66 25.82 18.23 Russia : 6.48 50.55 1.05 16.00 39.32 12.62 6.13 Kazakhstan : 4.70 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 6.24 5.42 Ukraine : 2.96 20.56 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.26 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 167.14 550.48 101.26 98.71 587.17 106.65 130.45 United States : 13.37 63.59 1.91 5.91 32.58 31.43 14.86 Total foreign : 153.77 486.89 99.36 92.81 554.59 75.22 115.59 Major exporters 4/ : 27.23 168.51 6.29 59.65 127.90 50.30 23.82 Argentina : 1.53 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 7.50 2.26 Australia : 3.14 24.92 0.08 3.00 5.70 17.50 4.94 Canada : 5.73 23.50 0.20 3.60 7.78 15.50 6.15 EU-25 5/ : 16.83 106.59 6.00 52.97 109.15 9.80 10.47 Major importers 6/ : 78.71 148.16 50.75 9.87 210.23 6.73 60.65 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.30 0.20 9.90 1.40 0.51 China : 60.38 86.49 3.50 6.00 104.50 2.70 43.17 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.65 16.83 7.90 1.15 25.66 1.00 4.72 N. Africa 8/ : 6.04 16.04 15.50 0.30 30.28 0.26 7.04 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.10 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.64 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.53 0.00 9.15 1.27 8.96 0.33 1.39 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.02 0.60 68.42 5.50 6.90 FSU-12 : 18.23 61.41 7.24 17.28 65.99 9.33 11.56 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 2.23 Kazakhstan : 5.42 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 5.70 5.14 Ukraine : 3.26 3.60 3.50 0.73 10.03 0.02 0.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-412-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 128.74 593.43 101.08 104.50 595.75 103.63 126.43 July : 130.45 598.00 101.30 104.50 596.21 104.08 132.24 United States : June : 14.72 56.08 1.77 5.44 32.58 26.54 13.46 July : 14.86 56.04 1.63 5.44 32.55 26.54 13.45 Total foreign : June : 114.02 537.35 99.32 99.06 563.17 77.10 112.96 July : 115.59 541.96 99.67 99.06 563.66 77.55 118.79 Major exporters 4/ : June : 23.66 189.00 5.29 64.78 133.38 56.00 28.56 July : 23.82 189.93 5.29 64.78 133.38 56.00 29.65 Argentina Jun : 1.76 14.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 8.50 1.79 Jul : 2.26 14.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 8.50 2.29 Australia Jun : 4.94 24.00 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 6.41 Jul : 4.94 24.00 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 6.41 Canada Jun : 6.15 23.50 0.20 3.80 8.00 15.50 6.35 Jul : 6.15 23.50 0.20 3.80 8.00 15.50 6.35 EU-25 5/ Jun : 10.81 127.50 5.00 58.00 114.30 15.00 14.01 Jul : 10.47 128.43 5.00 58.00 114.30 15.00 14.60 Major importers 6/ : June : 59.75 146.14 58.20 8.51 209.98 3.19 50.91 July : 60.65 148.17 59.00 8.51 210.23 3.19 54.40 Brazil Jun : 0.81 5.00 5.50 0.40 10.20 0.10 1.01 Jul : 0.51 5.00 5.50 0.40 10.20 0.10 0.71 China Jun : 42.67 85.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 32.67 Jul : 43.17 87.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 35.17 Sel. Mideast 7/Jun : 4.72 17.74 10.25 1.50 26.54 0.70 5.47 Jul : 4.72 17.67 10.25 1.50 26.49 0.70 5.45 N. Africa 8/ Jun : 6.74 16.18 14.90 0.30 30.73 0.26 6.83 Jul : 7.04 16.18 15.20 0.30 30.93 0.26 7.23 Pakistan Jun : 1.63 19.00 0.50 0.40 19.30 0.05 1.78 Jul : 1.64 19.00 1.00 0.40 19.30 0.05 2.29 SE Asia 9/ Jun : 1.39 0.00 9.55 1.38 9.27 0.33 1.34 Jul : 1.39 0.00 9.55 1.38 9.27 0.33 1.34 Selected other : India Jun : 6.90 72.00 0.02 0.50 69.92 1.50 7.50 Jul : 6.90 72.00 0.02 0.50 69.92 1.50 7.50 FSU-12 Jun : 11.06 81.29 3.99 19.41 69.88 12.16 14.30 Jul : 11.56 81.79 3.99 19.41 69.88 12.16 15.30 Russia Jun : 2.23 42.00 1.00 13.00 36.50 4.50 4.23 Jul : 2.23 42.50 1.00 13.00 36.50 4.50 4.73 Kazakhstan Jun : 4.64 11.50 0.02 1.80 6.50 5.50 4.15 Jul : 5.14 11.50 0.02 1.80 6.50 5.50 4.65 Ukraine Jun : 0.31 15.00 0.50 2.50 12.00 2.00 1.81 Jul : 0.31 15.00 0.50 2.50 12.00 2.00 1.81 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-412-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 194.56 871.72 102.90 596.10 900.97 104.14 165.30 United States : 45.04 243.72 2.57 149.41 214.52 45.87 30.94 Total foreign : 149.52 628.00 100.34 446.69 686.46 58.28 134.36 Major exporters 4/ : 8.44 56.01 4.86 31.87 44.66 16.90 7.76 Argentina : 0.96 19.45 0.00 5.12 7.33 11.94 1.14 Australia : 1.99 6.55 0.01 4.11 5.45 2.12 0.99 Canada : 3.52 19.89 4.24 18.45 22.81 1.70 3.14 Major importers 5/ : 35.78 203.33 78.64 201.58 270.44 10.14 37.16 EU-25 6/ : 21.07 137.45 6.35 102.03 135.51 8.63 20.72 Japan : 2.34 0.22 20.33 15.65 20.48 0.00 2.41 Mexico : 4.27 26.49 8.78 19.58 35.62 0.01 3.91 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.55 23.58 25.18 39.52 45.93 0.96 6.42 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.15 4.15 13.44 18.75 0.55 1.06 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.94 6.69 9.24 0.00 1.25 Selected other : China : 85.58 130.62 1.83 98.43 136.29 15.34 66.39 Other Europe : 2.25 22.24 1.02 17.35 21.10 1.40 3.01 FSU-12 : 11.39 60.74 0.90 34.95 52.74 8.09 12.20 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.30 29.85 3.44 7.20 Ukraine : 2.61 17.11 0.43 9.30 13.26 3.99 2.90 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 165.30 899.43 99.65 614.43 937.72 99.72 127.01 United States : 30.94 275.70 2.32 155.75 226.46 55.06 27.45 Total foreign : 134.36 623.73 97.33 458.68 711.27 44.67 99.56 Major exporters 4/ : 7.76 63.14 2.93 33.66 46.82 18.81 8.21 Argentina : 1.14 16.10 0.02 4.78 7.04 8.97 1.25 Australia : 0.99 12.39 0.00 5.12 6.45 5.42 1.52 Canada : 3.14 26.31 2.07 19.43 24.03 3.38 4.11 Major importers 5/ : 37.16 192.68 77.23 202.99 271.96 4.92 30.18 EU-25 6/ : 20.72 121.36 7.81 100.95 134.22 3.87 11.79 Japan : 2.41 0.20 20.04 15.54 20.37 0.00 2.28 Mexico : 3.91 28.70 9.30 20.16 36.20 0.02 5.69 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 6.42 26.46 21.91 41.49 48.10 0.25 6.43 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.60 3.48 12.70 18.06 0.78 1.30 South Korea : 1.25 0.30 9.74 7.57 10.13 0.00 1.15 Selected other : China : 66.39 125.13 1.61 100.50 139.30 8.15 45.67 Other Europe : 3.01 17.95 1.32 16.91 20.65 0.22 1.41 FSU-12 : 12.20 55.32 1.16 39.08 56.75 6.45 5.49 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.71 21.48 33.20 2.80 2.41 Ukraine : 2.90 15.60 0.25 10.50 14.10 3.02 1.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-412-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 123.76 931.84 98.83 620.03 950.10 103.36 105.49 July : 127.01 938.75 98.91 620.92 950.48 103.15 115.29 United States : June : 24.89 284.03 2.47 154.43 228.45 59.65 23.29 July : 27.45 288.93 2.44 155.28 229.05 59.65 30.13 Total foreign : June : 98.87 647.80 96.36 465.60 721.65 43.71 82.21 July : 99.56 649.82 96.47 465.64 721.43 43.51 85.16 Major exporters 4/ : June : 8.19 66.96 2.96 34.36 47.91 21.06 9.14 July : 8.21 66.16 3.26 34.06 47.81 21.06 8.75 Argentina Jun : 1.15 19.35 0.01 4.98 7.29 11.56 1.66 Jul : 1.25 19.35 0.01 4.88 7.39 11.56 1.66 Australia Jun : 1.52 11.56 0.00 5.26 6.59 5.07 1.41 Jul : 1.52 11.56 0.00 5.26 6.59 5.07 1.41 Canada Jun : 4.16 26.32 2.25 19.78 24.73 3.40 4.60 Jul : 4.11 25.52 2.55 19.58 24.53 3.40 4.25 Major importers 5/ : June : 29.26 210.23 76.01 206.97 277.26 5.09 33.15 July : 30.18 210.90 75.81 206.77 276.96 4.59 35.34 EU-25 6/ Jun : 11.29 139.95 3.06 101.49 135.40 4.51 14.39 Jul : 11.79 140.51 3.06 101.49 135.40 4.01 15.96 Japan Jun : 2.28 0.24 20.09 15.51 20.34 0.00 2.27 Jul : 2.28 0.24 20.09 15.51 20.34 0.00 2.27 Mexico Jun : 5.14 27.45 10.94 22.17 38.31 0.01 5.21 Jul : 5.69 27.45 10.94 22.17 38.31 0.01 5.76 N Afr/M.East 7/Jun : 6.46 26.27 23.74 42.39 49.35 0.15 6.98 Jul : 6.43 26.37 23.64 42.29 49.15 0.15 7.15 S.-east Asia 8/Jun : 1.40 15.92 3.84 13.77 19.26 0.43 1.47 Jul : 1.30 15.92 3.74 13.67 19.16 0.43 1.37 South Korea Jun : 1.15 0.33 9.51 7.14 9.79 0.00 1.20 Jul : 1.15 0.33 9.51 7.14 9.79 0.00 1.20 Selected other : China Jun : 45.72 124.30 2.01 102.80 142.85 4.08 25.10 Jul : 45.67 124.30 2.01 102.80 142.85 4.08 25.05 Other Europe Jun : 1.36 22.68 0.96 17.78 21.65 1.10 2.25 Jul : 1.41 23.85 0.96 18.28 22.15 1.50 2.57 FSU-12 Jun : 5.79 57.05 1.10 35.51 52.49 6.09 5.36 Jul : 5.49 58.57 1.10 35.65 52.51 6.49 6.16 Russia Jun : 2.20 30.10 0.80 18.30 29.10 2.00 2.00 Jul : 2.41 31.10 0.80 18.40 29.10 2.10 3.11 Ukraine Jun : 2.14 17.90 0.07 10.15 14.00 3.56 2.55 Jul : 1.63 18.40 0.07 10.15 14.00 3.86 2.25 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-412-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 147.97 600.99 76.63 434.83 626.70 78.26 122.25 United States : 40.55 227.77 0.37 141.18 200.63 40.45 27.60 Total foreign : 107.42 373.22 76.26 293.65 426.07 37.81 94.65 Major exporters 4/ : 2.27 25.18 0.44 6.50 12.52 12.30 3.07 Argentina : 0.33 15.50 0.00 2.50 4.00 11.20 0.63 South Africa : 1.94 9.68 0.44 4.00 8.52 1.10 2.44 Major importers 5/ : 11.25 89.33 49.04 93.60 133.68 2.52 13.42 Egypt : 0.25 6.00 4.86 9.10 10.90 0.00 0.21 EU-25 6/ : 2.66 49.08 4.33 38.38 49.24 2.00 4.83 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.87 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.46 Mexico : 3.40 19.28 5.28 9.50 24.70 0.01 3.25 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.05 14.85 4.15 13.20 18.50 0.51 1.04 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.57 8.78 0.00 1.25 Selected other : Brazil : 0.72 44.50 0.78 34.00 37.50 4.63 3.87 Canada : 1.06 9.00 3.95 10.28 12.58 0.31 1.11 China : 84.79 121.30 0.03 96.00 125.90 15.24 64.97 Other Europe : 1.76 17.68 0.54 14.37 16.84 0.66 2.49 FSU-12 : 1.50 8.54 0.19 6.39 7.86 0.85 1.51 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.11 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.25 616.41 76.91 446.58 646.51 75.61 92.15 United States : 27.60 256.90 0.25 147.33 212.48 49.53 22.75 Total foreign : 94.65 359.51 76.66 299.25 434.03 26.08 69.41 Major exporters 4/ : 3.07 20.30 0.71 6.70 12.80 9.50 1.78 Argentina : 0.63 12.50 0.01 2.60 4.10 8.50 0.54 South Africa : 2.44 7.80 0.70 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.24 Major importers 5/ : 13.42 81.58 50.55 91.29 131.46 1.17 12.93 Egypt : 0.21 6.15 4.20 8.60 10.40 0.00 0.16 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.00 5.50 35.00 45.80 0.40 3.12 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.80 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.36 Mexico : 3.25 21.00 6.30 11.00 26.20 0.02 4.33 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.04 15.32 3.45 12.44 17.79 0.75 1.27 South Korea : 1.25 0.07 9.50 7.40 9.67 0.00 1.15 Selected other : Brazil : 3.87 41.50 0.55 35.00 38.80 4.00 3.12 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.00 9.00 11.50 0.30 0.91 China : 64.97 115.83 0.10 98.00 128.60 8.00 44.30 Other Europe : 2.49 14.27 0.83 13.98 16.46 0.20 0.93 FSU-12 : 1.51 11.54 0.50 9.47 10.96 1.53 1.06 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.40 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-412-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 89.22 643.83 75.22 455.29 664.19 78.46 68.86 July : 92.15 648.83 75.17 456.46 665.13 78.26 75.86 United States : June : 20.46 264.81 0.38 145.42 213.50 53.34 18.81 July : 22.75 270.14 0.38 146.69 214.77 53.34 25.16 Total foreign : June : 68.76 379.02 74.84 309.87 450.69 25.12 50.04 July : 69.41 378.69 74.79 309.77 450.36 24.92 50.69 Major exporters 4/ : June : 1.78 24.80 0.51 6.80 12.90 12.00 2.19 July : 1.78 24.80 0.51 6.80 12.90 12.00 2.19 Argentina Jun : 0.54 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.20 11.00 0.85 Jul : 0.54 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.20 11.00 0.85 South Africa Jun : 1.24 9.30 0.50 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.34 Jul : 1.24 9.30 0.50 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.34 Major importers 5/ : June : 12.03 93.26 48.11 97.50 138.66 0.91 13.84 July : 12.93 93.26 47.81 97.20 138.35 0.91 14.74 Egypt Jun : 0.16 6.20 4.70 9.00 10.90 0.00 0.16 Jul : 0.16 6.20 4.50 8.80 10.70 0.00 0.16 EU-25 6/ Jun : 2.62 51.00 2.50 40.10 51.50 0.50 4.12 Jul : 3.12 51.00 2.50 40.10 51.50 0.50 4.62 Japan Jun : 1.36 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.36 Jul : 1.36 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.36 Mexico Jun : 3.83 20.30 6.30 11.20 26.50 0.01 3.92 Jul : 4.33 20.30 6.30 11.20 26.50 0.01 4.42 S.-east Asia 7/Jun : 1.37 15.64 3.81 13.50 18.99 0.40 1.43 Jul : 1.27 15.64 3.71 13.40 18.89 0.40 1.33 South Korea Jun : 1.15 0.07 9.30 7.00 9.32 0.00 1.20 Jul : 1.15 0.07 9.30 7.00 9.32 0.00 1.20 Selected other : Brazil Jun : 3.12 43.50 0.40 36.20 40.00 4.50 2.52 Jul : 3.12 43.00 0.40 36.20 40.00 4.00 2.52 Canada Jun : 0.91 9.50 2.20 8.70 11.40 0.30 0.91 Jul : 0.91 8.70 2.50 8.50 11.20 0.30 0.61 China Jun : 44.30 115.00 0.20 100.00 131.60 4.00 23.90 Jul : 44.30 115.00 0.20 100.00 131.60 4.00 23.90 Other Europe Jun : 0.88 17.92 0.53 14.58 17.06 0.60 1.67 Jul : 0.93 18.92 0.53 15.08 17.56 0.90 1.92 FSU-12 Jun : 1.36 11.17 0.61 9.16 10.55 1.53 1.07 Jul : 1.06 11.17 0.61 9.16 10.55 1.53 0.77 Russia Jun : 0.11 2.00 0.50 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.11 Jul : 0.11 2.00 0.50 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-412-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 3/ : 138.86 378.16 26.19 407.88 28.60 109.14 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.54 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 137.64 371.63 25.71 404.35 24.74 108.31 Major exporters 4/ : 31.09 115.90 0.04 110.79 18.78 17.47 India : 24.48 72.70 0.00 80.74 5.44 11.00 Pakistan : 0.20 4.48 0.00 2.65 1.99 0.05 Thailand : 2.92 17.20 0.00 9.60 7.55 2.96 Vietnam : 3.49 21.53 0.04 17.80 3.80 3.47 Major importers 5/ : 12.07 55.12 12.11 67.29 0.33 11.69 Brazil : 0.54 7.02 1.25 8.10 0.02 0.69 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.65 1.20 2.60 0.25 0.88 Indonesia : 4.68 33.41 2.75 36.50 0.00 4.34 Nigeria : 0.68 2.20 1.90 4.00 0.00 0.78 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.50 2.00 2.51 5.05 0.06 0.89 Selected other : Burma : 0.93 10.79 0.00 10.10 0.39 1.23 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.10 0.09 0.44 0.47 0.00 0.15 China : 82.17 122.18 0.26 134.80 2.58 67.22 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.58 0.77 Japan : 2.69 8.09 0.63 8.74 0.20 2.47 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.54 0.70 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 1.57 4.93 0.13 5.03 0.57 1.03 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 3/ : 109.14 386.63 24.11 412.81 25.16 82.96 United States : 0.83 6.37 0.48 3.68 3.23 0.76 Total foreign : 108.31 380.26 23.63 409.12 21.93 82.20 Major exporters 4/ : 17.47 130.34 0.04 114.40 17.38 16.07 India : 11.00 86.40 0.00 83.75 2.75 10.90 Pakistan : 0.05 4.90 0.00 2.70 1.88 0.37 Thailand : 2.96 17.70 0.00 9.75 9.00 1.91 Vietnam : 3.47 21.34 0.04 18.20 3.75 2.89 Major importers 5/ : 11.69 58.39 9.95 68.70 0.34 10.99 Brazil : 0.69 8.60 0.60 8.40 0.05 1.44 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.68 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.85 Indonesia : 4.34 34.25 1.00 36.65 0.00 2.94 Nigeria : 0.78 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 0.58 Philippines : 3.81 9.10 1.35 10.25 0.00 4.01 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.89 2.28 3.20 5.32 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.10 1.66 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.15 China : 67.22 112.46 1.00 135.40 1.20 44.09 Egypt : 0.77 3.97 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.74 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.58 0.73 0.00 0.22 South Korea : 1.03 4.45 0.18 4.87 0.18 0.61 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-412-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 82.42 399.82 24.55 417.33 25.31 64.92 July : 82.96 405.23 24.41 417.34 25.41 70.85 United States : June : 0.70 6.91 0.46 3.75 3.52 0.79 July : 0.76 7.08 0.48 3.82 3.62 0.88 Total foreign : June : 81.72 392.92 24.09 413.57 21.79 64.13 July : 82.20 398.15 23.94 413.52 21.79 69.97 Major exporters 4/ : June : 16.61 134.40 0.04 118.15 16.75 16.15 July : 16.07 134.40 0.04 117.75 16.75 16.01 India Jun : 12.50 90.00 0.00 86.50 2.75 13.25 Jul : 10.90 90.00 0.00 86.50 2.75 11.65 Pakistan Jun : 0.35 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.60 Jul : 0.37 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.62 Thailand Jun : 0.88 17.90 0.00 10.30 8.00 0.48 Jul : 1.91 17.90 0.00 9.90 8.00 1.91 Vietnam Jun : 2.89 21.50 0.04 18.60 4.00 1.83 Jul : 2.89 21.50 0.04 18.60 4.00 1.83 Major importers 5/ : June : 11.24 58.19 9.88 68.35 0.36 10.59 July : 10.99 58.21 10.08 68.35 0.36 10.56 Brazil Jun : 1.44 8.10 0.60 8.45 0.05 1.64 Jul : 1.44 8.10 0.60 8.45 0.05 1.64 EU-25 6/ Jun : 0.85 1.71 1.00 2.53 0.25 0.78 Jul : 0.85 1.73 1.00 2.53 0.25 0.80 Indonesia Jun : 3.19 34.40 2.00 36.60 0.00 2.99 Jul : 2.94 34.40 2.00 36.60 0.00 2.74 Nigeria Jun : 0.58 2.30 1.60 4.03 0.00 0.45 Jul : 0.58 2.30 1.40 4.03 0.00 0.25 Philippines Jun : 4.01 9.10 0.50 9.92 0.00 3.69 Jul : 4.01 9.10 0.80 9.92 0.00 3.99 Sel. Mideast 7/Jun : 0.99 2.30 3.10 5.41 0.06 0.93 Jul : 0.99 2.30 3.20 5.41 0.06 1.03 Selected other : Burma Jun : 1.66 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.11 Jul : 1.66 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.11 C. Am & Car. 8/Jun : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.14 Jul : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.14 China Jun : 44.09 120.75 1.30 135.70 1.20 29.24 Jul : 44.09 126.00 0.60 135.70 1.20 33.79 Egypt Jun : 0.74 4.00 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.71 Jul : 0.74 4.00 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.71 Japan Jun : 0.47 7.80 0.70 8.30 0.20 0.47 Jul : 1.70 7.80 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.70 Mexico Jun : 0.24 0.19 0.58 0.80 0.00 0.21 Jul : 0.22 0.19 0.58 0.80 0.00 0.19 South Korea Jun : 0.61 4.80 0.21 4.94 0.00 0.68 Jul : 0.61 4.80 0.21 4.94 0.00 0.68 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-412-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World : 47.31 88.28 30.30 98.65 30.35 0.25 36.65 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.38 Total foreign : 39.86 71.07 30.24 91.37 18.45 0.08 31.27 Major exporters 4/ : 11.11 24.24 1.44 14.11 14.22 0.01 8.45 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.40 0.23 0.03 2.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.93 6.88 3/ 1.82 5.34 0.00 1.65 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 4.12 3/ 0.21 3.81 0.05 1.54 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.90 2.72 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.89 Australia : 2.21 1.70 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.23 Major importers : 26.75 43.79 23.92 70.60 3.16 0.06 20.63 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.60 0.49 -0.10 2.88 India : 5.13 10.60 1.22 13.30 0.05 0.00 3.59 Mexico : 0.72 0.21 2.30 2.10 0.07 0.03 1.03 China : 12.61 22.60 3.13 29.90 0.75 0.00 7.68 EU-25 8/ : 1.74 2.15 3.92 4.83 1.44 0.06 1.49 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.18 2.26 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.29 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.46 0.16 8.87 8.91 0.06 0.08 2.45 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.23 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.40 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.94 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World : 36.65 93.89 33.75 98.39 32.95 0.02 32.93 United States : 5.38 18.26 0.05 6.30 13.80 -0.01 3.60 Total foreign : 31.27 75.64 33.70 92.09 19.15 0.03 29.33 Major exporters 4/ : 8.45 24.54 2.68 14.45 14.06 -0.04 7.21 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.75 9.60 0.15 0.03 1.98 Central Asia 5/ : 1.65 6.84 0.01 1.89 5.16 0.00 1.44 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.43 3/ 0.20 4.49 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis. 7/ : 1.89 3.07 0.55 1.14 2.96 -0.08 1.48 Australia : 1.23 1.50 3/ 0.08 2.15 -0.10 0.61 Major importers : 20.63 47.88 26.40 70.99 3.77 0.06 20.10 Brazil : 2.88 5.80 0.48 3.75 0.90 -0.10 4.61 India : 3.59 13.20 0.90 13.30 0.55 0.00 3.84 Mexico : 1.03 0.36 1.70 2.00 0.13 0.03 0.94 China : 7.68 22.30 8.80 32.20 0.18 0.00 6.41 EU-25 8/ : 1.49 1.96 3.12 3.93 1.54 0.06 1.04 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.29 4.10 2.20 6.00 0.40 0.00 1.19 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.45 0.16 7.73 8.31 0.08 0.08 1.88 Indonesia : 0.40 0.04 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.60 0.06 1.70 1.95 0.01 0.03 0.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-412-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World : June : 32.03 102.88 31.62 99.86 31.28 0.03 35.35 July : 32.93 104.73 30.98 100.16 30.65 0.03 37.79 United States : June : 3.60 17.60 0.04 5.80 11.50 0.04 3.90 July : 3.60 18.00 0.04 5.80 11.30 0.04 4.50 Total foreign : June : 28.43 85.28 31.58 94.06 19.78 -0.01 31.45 July : 29.33 86.73 30.94 94.36 19.35 -0.01 33.29 Major exporters 4/ : June : 7.18 27.58 2.30 14.62 14.26 -0.05 8.24 July : 7.21 27.58 2.45 14.76 14.14 -0.05 8.39 Pakistan Jun : 1.98 8.75 1.35 9.80 0.20 0.03 2.06 Jul : 1.98 8.75 1.50 9.90 0.20 0.03 2.10 Central Asia 5/Jun : 1.44 7.30 3/ 1.95 5.12 0.00 1.66 Jul : 1.44 7.40 3/ 1.95 5.12 0.00 1.76 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jun : 1.28 4.42 3/ 0.20 4.16 0.00 1.34 Jul : 1.28 4.42 3/ 0.20 4.16 0.00 1.34 S. Hemis 7/ Jun : 1.46 4.20 0.40 1.10 3.13 -0.09 1.92 Jul : 1.48 4.10 0.40 1.10 3.03 -0.09 1.94 Australia Jun : 0.61 2.50 3/ 0.07 2.20 -0.10 0.94 Jul : 0.61 2.40 3/ 0.07 2.10 -0.10 0.94 Major importers Jun : 19.21 54.56 24.54 72.96 4.29 0.04 21.03 Jul : 20.10 55.96 23.89 73.06 4.08 0.04 22.77 Brazil Jun : 4.40 6.50 0.50 3.90 2.20 -0.10 5.40 Jul : 4.61 6.50 0.50 3.90 2.00 -0.10 5.80 India Jun : 3.74 12.00 1.30 13.50 0.10 0.00 3.44 Jul : 3.84 12.50 1.20 13.60 0.10 0.00 3.84 Mexico Jun : 0.63 0.55 1.55 1.90 0.20 0.03 0.61 Jul : 0.94 0.55 1.50 1.90 0.30 0.03 0.76 China Jun : 6.38 29.00 6.25 34.20 0.20 0.00 7.23 Jul : 6.41 30.00 5.75 34.20 0.20 0.00 7.76 EU-25 8/ Jun : 0.98 2.10 2.89 3.62 1.30 0.06 0.99 Jul : 1.04 2.00 2.89 3.62 1.20 0.06 1.06 Russia Jun : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Jul : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Jun : 0.99 4.25 2.17 6.10 0.23 0.00 1.08 Jul : 1.19 4.25 2.17 6.10 0.23 0.00 1.28 Sel. Asia 9/ Jun : 1.88 0.17 8.40 8.30 0.06 0.05 2.04 Jul : 1.88 0.16 8.40 8.30 0.06 0.05 2.03 Indonesia Jun : 0.37 0.04 2.25 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.39 Jul : 0.37 0.04 2.25 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.39 Thailand Jun : 0.38 0.07 2.10 2.05 0.01 0.00 0.49 Jul : 0.38 0.06 2.10 2.05 0.01 0.00 0.48 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-412-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 32.18 197.31 62.87 164.90 190.57 62.07 39.72 United States : 5.66 75.01 0.13 43.97 47.50 28.44 4.85 Total foreign : 26.52 122.30 62.74 120.94 143.07 33.63 34.86 Major exporters 3/ : 21.33 92.50 1.72 51.90 55.92 32.04 27.59 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.40 23.53 24.86 8.71 12.48 Brazil : 11.07 52.50 1.32 27.17 29.76 20.13 15.00 Major importers 4/ : 4.30 18.79 51.37 53.61 67.71 0.32 6.43 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.54 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-25 : 1.08 0.89 16.82 16.26 17.84 0.03 0.93 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.70 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 39.72 189.12 57.60 168.50 194.78 58.15 33.50 United States : 4.85 65.80 0.17 40.82 43.45 24.49 2.87 Total foreign : 34.86 123.32 57.43 127.68 151.33 33.66 30.63 Major exporters 3/ : 27.59 90.60 1.00 57.38 61.96 31.45 25.78 Argentina : 12.48 34.00 0.30 24.78 26.36 8.23 12.20 Brazil : 15.00 52.60 0.70 31.25 34.16 20.65 13.49 Major importers 4/ : 6.43 18.13 46.59 52.23 66.87 0.34 3.94 China : 4.47 16.00 18.00 26.85 36.09 0.28 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.73 15.59 14.92 16.38 0.03 0.84 Japan : 0.70 0.23 4.85 3.80 5.14 0.00 0.65 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 4.10 4.20 4.23 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : June : 33.01 224.97 65.85 181.65 210.77 66.36 46.69 July : 33.50 224.57 65.68 181.40 210.41 66.33 47.00 United States : June : 3.13 80.69 0.14 44.91 48.99 28.98 5.99 July : 2.87 80.01 0.14 44.77 48.74 28.58 5.70 Total foreign : June : 29.88 144.27 65.71 136.74 161.78 37.38 40.70 July : 30.63 144.55 65.55 136.64 161.67 37.76 41.30 Major exporters 3/ : June : 24.94 110.00 1.15 62.60 67.63 35.02 33.44 July : 25.78 110.00 1.15 62.60 67.63 35.27 34.03 Argentina Jun : 11.70 39.00 0.35 26.00 27.57 8.82 14.66 Jul : 12.20 39.00 0.35 26.00 27.57 8.92 15.06 Brazil Jun : 13.14 66.00 0.80 35.00 38.36 23.20 18.38 Jul : 13.49 66.00 0.80 35.00 38.36 23.35 18.58 Major importers 4/ : June : 4.09 19.84 53.91 55.84 71.30 0.26 6.28 July : 3.94 19.84 53.91 55.74 71.20 0.26 6.23 China Jun : 2.25 17.50 24.00 29.20 39.10 0.20 4.45 Jul : 2.10 17.50 24.00 29.10 39.00 0.20 4.40 EU-25 Jun : 0.84 0.84 16.09 15.50 16.94 0.03 0.80 Jul : 0.84 0.84 16.09 15.50 16.94 0.03 0.80 Japan Jun : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.88 5.26 0.00 0.67 Jul : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.88 5.26 0.00 0.67 Mexico Jun : 0.04 0.11 4.40 4.47 4.51 0.00 0.04 Jul : 0.04 0.11 4.40 4.47 4.51 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-412-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 4.15 130.16 43.56 131.96 42.15 3.77 United States : 0.22 34.67 0.15 29.38 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.93 95.50 43.41 102.58 36.69 3.57 Major exporters 3/ : 1.09 42.77 0.32 9.86 33.44 0.88 Argentina : 0.30 18.59 0.00 0.23 18.46 0.20 Brazil : 0.75 21.46 0.32 8.12 13.75 0.64 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.51 1.23 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.38 35.99 26.60 61.64 1.14 1.19 EU-25 : 1.05 12.88 21.64 34.36 0.35 0.87 China : 0.00 21.00 0.00 20.20 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.77 133.72 46.75 134.13 46.56 3.55 United States : 0.20 32.23 0.30 28.71 3.86 0.16 Total foreign : 3.57 101.49 46.45 105.42 42.70 3.39 Major exporters 3/ : 0.88 49.10 0.28 9.98 39.54 0.74 Argentina : 0.20 19.82 0.00 0.24 19.69 0.10 Brazil : 0.64 24.68 0.28 8.55 16.45 0.60 India : 0.04 4.60 0.00 1.19 3.40 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 35.51 28.95 63.56 0.92 1.18 EU-25 : 0.87 11.86 23.80 35.38 0.30 0.85 China : 0.00 21.62 0.05 21.06 0.60 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : June : 3.54 144.15 48.53 143.17 48.80 4.26 July : 3.55 143.99 48.51 143.08 48.71 4.25 United States : June : 0.16 35.62 0.15 30.66 5.04 0.23 July : 0.16 35.52 0.15 30.66 4.94 0.23 Total foreign : June : 3.38 108.54 48.38 112.50 43.76 4.03 July : 3.39 108.46 48.36 112.42 43.76 4.03 Major exporters 3/ : June : 0.74 52.22 0.15 11.38 40.38 1.36 July : 0.74 52.22 0.15 11.38 40.38 1.36 Argentina Jun : 0.10 20.69 0.00 0.24 20.15 0.40 Jul : 0.10 20.69 0.00 0.24 20.15 0.40 Brazil Jun : 0.60 27.64 0.15 9.35 18.12 0.92 Jul : 0.60 27.64 0.15 9.35 18.12 0.92 India Jun : 0.04 3.88 0.00 1.78 2.10 0.04 Jul : 0.04 3.88 0.00 1.78 2.10 0.04 Major importers 4/ : June : 1.18 38.09 29.90 67.12 0.93 1.11 July : 1.18 38.01 29.90 67.05 0.93 1.11 EU-25 Jun : 0.85 12.32 24.50 36.60 0.31 0.77 Jul : 0.85 12.32 24.50 36.60 0.31 0.77 China Jun : 0.00 23.50 0.00 22.90 0.60 0.00 Jul : 0.00 23.42 0.00 22.82 0.60 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-412-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 2.55 30.48 8.62 30.66 9.17 1.82 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.48 22.11 8.60 22.91 8.14 1.14 Major exporters 3/ : 0.54 12.54 0.12 5.50 7.31 0.38 Argentina : 0.13 4.38 0.00 0.12 4.34 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.19 0.07 3.07 2.27 0.10 EU-25 : 0.24 2.97 0.05 2.32 0.71 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.38 3.07 8.45 0.02 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.71 6.39 0.01 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.25 1.95 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.11 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.82 30.90 9.03 31.02 9.25 1.47 United States : 0.68 7.56 0.13 7.51 0.39 0.47 Total foreign : 1.14 23.34 8.90 23.52 8.87 1.00 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 13.28 0.09 5.46 7.94 0.35 Argentina : 0.05 4.61 0.00 0.11 4.51 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.97 0.07 3.23 2.82 0.09 EU-25 : 0.23 2.70 0.02 2.12 0.61 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.85 3.27 9.11 0.03 0.37 China : 0.25 4.78 2.41 7.20 0.01 0.23 India : 0.13 1.06 0.75 1.79 0.02 0.14 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : June : 1.46 33.40 10.04 32.97 10.22 1.71 July : 1.48 33.33 10.04 32.93 10.22 1.70 United States : June : 0.46 8.42 0.05 7.85 0.52 0.56 July : 0.47 8.39 0.05 7.85 0.52 0.54 Total foreign : June : 1.00 24.97 9.99 25.12 9.70 1.15 July : 1.00 24.94 9.99 25.08 9.70 1.16 Major exporters 3/ : June : 0.35 14.32 0.10 5.67 8.69 0.41 July : 0.35 14.32 0.10 5.67 8.69 0.41 Argentina Jun : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Jul : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Brazil Jun : 0.09 6.68 0.05 3.35 3.37 0.10 Jul : 0.09 6.68 0.05 3.35 3.37 0.10 EU-25 Jun : 0.22 2.80 0.05 2.20 0.69 0.18 Jul : 0.22 2.80 0.05 2.20 0.69 0.18 Major importers 4/ : June : 0.37 6.11 3.92 9.93 0.03 0.44 July : 0.37 6.08 3.92 9.90 0.03 0.44 China Jun : 0.23 5.21 2.66 7.80 0.02 0.28 Jul : 0.23 5.18 2.66 7.77 0.02 0.28 India Jun : 0.14 0.90 1.15 2.02 0.01 0.16 Jul : 0.14 0.90 1.15 2.02 0.01 0.16 Pakistan Jun : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.00 Jul : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-412-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2003 : III : 7081 4807 11980 8448 1409 9985 21965 1823 41.7 IV : 5973 5499 11575 8240 1423 9780 21355 1858 41.5 Annual : 26238 19945 46574 32749 5650 38902 85476 7273 170.3 : 2004 : I : 5834 5130 11061 8208 1302 9627 20688 1816 42.7 II : 6260 4900 11247 8525 1360 10010 21257 1840 43.6 III*: 6675 4965 11726 8725 1350 10200 21926 1865 41.5 IV*: 6000 5475 11571 8475 1375 9965 21536 1880 41.8 Annual : Jun Proj : 24869 20435 45679 33923 5397 39812 85491 7396 169.7 Jul Proj : 24769 20470 45605 33933 5387 39802 85407 7401 169.6 : 2005 : I*: 5725 5085 10904 8400 1315 9830 20734 1845 43.1 II*: 6275 4925 11293 8825 1410 10360 21653 1865 44.5 Annual : Jun Proj : 24350 20315 45036 35125 5575 41190 86226 7495 172.2 Jul Proj : 24350 20485 45206 35125 5575 41190 86396 7495 172.2 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2003 : III : 83.07 42.90 63.4 59.1 89.9 13.30 IV : 99.38 36.89 64.6 67.4 110.7 14.40 Annual : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 87.9 12.52 : 2004 : I : 82.16 44.18 73.2 62.1 114.8 14.07 II : 88.15 54.91 79.3 66.6 79.7 18.67 III*: 83-87 52-54 76-80 66-68 78-82 15.20-15.60 IV*: 86-92 41-45 72-78 68-72 82-88 14.80-15.50 Annual : Jun Proj : 84-88 47-49 73-76 65-67 94-97 16.20-16.60 Jul Proj : 85-87 48-49 75-77 66-67 89-91 15.65-15.95 : 2005 : I*: 82-88 47-51 70-76 59-63 82-88 12.90-13.90 II*: 84-90 48-52 71-77 61-67 77-83 12.10-13.10 Annual : Jun Proj : 83-89 45-49 69-75 64-69 91-99 13.05-14.05 Jul Proj : 83-89 45-49 71-77 64-69 80-87 13.05-14.05 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-412-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2003 : 691 26339 3006 30036 2523 518 26995 64.9 2004 Proj. Jun : 518 24970 3433 28921 451 525 27945 66.5 Jul : 518 24870 3433 28821 441 525 27855 66.3 2005 Proj. Jun : 525 24451 3420 28396 600 550 27246 64.2 Jul : 525 24451 3420 28396 600 550 27246 64.2 : PORK : 2003 : 533 19966 1185 21684 1717 532 19435 51.8 2004 Proj. Jun : 532 20456 1130 22118 2073 460 19585 51.7 Jul : 532 20491 1130 22153 2073 460 19620 51.8 2005 Proj. Jun : 460 20336 1090 21886 2085 460 19341 50.6 Jul : 460 20506 1090 22056 2085 460 19511 51.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2003 : 1238 46710 4358 52306 4247 1059 47000 118.4 2004 Proj. Jun : 1059 45815 4751 51625 2530 994 48101 119.9 Jul : 1059 45741 4749 51549 2520 993 48036 119.7 2005 Proj. Jun : 994 45172 4701 50867 2689 1019 47159 116.5 Jul : 993 45342 4701 51036 2689 1018 47329 116.9 : BROILERS : 2003 : 763 32399 12 33173 4932 608 27633 81.5 2004 Proj. Jun : 608 33560 22 34190 4299 600 29291 85.6 Jul : 608 33570 22 34200 4299 625 29276 85.5 2005 Proj. Jun : 600 34749 12 35361 4800 600 29961 86.7 Jul : 625 34749 12 35386 4800 625 29961 86.7 : TURKEYS : 2003 : 333 5576 1 5911 482 354 5074 17.4 2004 Proj. Jun : 354 5326 2 5682 408 300 4973 16.9 Jul : 354 5316 2 5672 358 300 5013 17.0 2005 Proj. Jun : 300 5502 1 5803 495 300 5007 16.9 Jul : 300 5502 1 5803 455 300 5047 17.0 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2003 : 1101 38477 16 39595 5511 965 33118 100.4 2004 Proj. Jun : 965 39378 28 40371 4844 904 34622 103.7 Jul : 965 39368 28 40361 4774 929 34657 103.8 2005 Proj. Jun : 904 40741 17 41662 5395 904 35362 104.9 Jul : 929 40741 17 41687 5335 929 35422 105.1 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2003 : 2339 85187 4374 91901 9758 2024 80118 218.8 2004 Proj. Jun : 2024 85193 4779 91996 7374 1898 82723 223.6 Jul : 2024 85109 4777 91910 7294 1922 82693 223.6 2005 Proj. Jun : 1898 85913 4718 92529 8084 1923 82521 221.4 Jul : 1922 86083 4718 92723 8024 1947 82751 222.0 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-412-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2004 Projected : 2005 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2002 : 2003 : Jun : Jul : Jun : Jul =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.4 10.3 13.7 13.7 15.0 15.0 Production : 7268.0 7273.0 7396.0 7401.0 7495.0 7495.0 Imports : 15.0 13.3 12.4 12.9 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7293.4 7296.6 7422.1 7427.6 7522.0 7522.0 : Use : Exports : 174.0 146.4 108.2 113.2 140.0 140.0 Hatching use : 961.3 959.4 989.3 989.3 1030.0 1030.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 13.7 15.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6147.8 6177.1 6309.6 6310.1 6338.0 6338.0 Per capita (number) : 255.9 254.7 257.5 257.5 256.2 256.2 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Proj 1/: 2004/05 Proj 1/ Commodity :2001/02:2002/03:-----------------:------------------ : 1/ : 1/ : Jun : Jul : Jun : Jul =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 8.7 8.7 Production : 169.3 170.4 169.5 169.4 171.7 171.7 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 168.2 169.3 168.4 168.3 170.7 170.7 Imports 2/ : 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.6 5.1 5.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 182.1 185.5 184.6 184.9 184.5 184.5 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 170.6 173.3 175.9 176.3 176.2 176.2 Ending commercial stks. 2: 11.2 11.0 8.7 8.7 8.2 8.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 9.6 8.8 2.8 2.5 3.9 3.9 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 11.03 10.63 15.25- 14.70- 11.85- 11.80- : 15.45 14.80 12.85 12.70 : Class IV : 11.22 10.05 12.20- 12.45- 11.00- 11.15- : 12.50 12.65 12.20 12.25 : All milk 5/ : 12.74 11.91 16.00- 15.60- 13.20- 13.15- : 16.20 15.70 14.20 14.05 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4: Butter : 0 29 -6 -6 0 0 Cheese : 9 47 7 7 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 817 719 235 210 330 330 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-412-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 23-year record of the differences between the July projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the July projection and the final estimate have averaged 13.7 million tons (2.6%) ranging from -34.6 to 23.7 million tons. The July projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 10 times. Reliability of July Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.6 13.7 -34.6 23.7 13 10 U.S. : 2.7 1.7 -6.2 5.4 9 14 Foreign : 2.8 13.2 -32.0 21.1 13 10 Exports : World : 4.5 5.1 -14.5 11.3 13 10 U.S. : 8.4 2.8 -10.0 7.8 13 10 Foreign : 5.3 4.4 -10.8 7.1 14 9 Domestic use : World : 1.8 9.4 -25.7 17.4 14 9 U.S. : 6.2 1.9 -5.0 3.6 11 12 Foreign : 1.7 8.4 -22.4 15.9 15 8 Ending stocks : World : 9.6 12.3 -26.0 27.0 14 9 U.S. : 14.4 3.4 -10.2 13.9 12 11 Foreign : 9.8 10.0 -25.0 13.8 14 9 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 2.3 19.1 -33.8 53.6 10 13 U.S. : 7.3 15.5 -32.6 57.7 9 14 Foreign : 1.9 11.1 -25.1 28.2 8 15 Exports : World : 6.0 6.3 -11.1 17.8 16 7 U.S. : 15.3 8.0 -20.9 15.0 9 14 Foreign : 14.0 7.3 -19.7 14.2 13 10 Domestic use : World : 1.5 12.1 -20.4 26.7 10 13 U.S. : 3.9 7.0 -14.5 22.2 16 7 Foreign : 1.6 9.8 -11.7 30.5 11 12 Ending stocks : World : 13.4 17.0 -60.2 41.0 13 10 U.S. : 31.9 15.1 -50.5 39.5 8 15 Foreign : 11.8 9.2 -25.4 9.9 16 7 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.5 -24.0 14.2 16 7 U.S. : 4.2 0.2 -0.5 0.4 12 9 Foreign : 2.2 7.5 -24.3 14.3 16 7 Exports : World : 8.1 1.6 -6.7 0.9 15 8 U.S. : 8.4 0.2 -1.0 0.7 13 8 Foreign : 9.0 1.5 -6.5 1.0 16 7 Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.7 -22.4 22.9 16 7 U.S. : 7.2 0.2 -0.4 0.5 9 14 Foreign : 1.7 5.7 -22.9 22.8 16 7 Ending stocks : World : 11.4 4.8 -15.6 8.0 18 5 U.S. : 22.6 0.3 -0.5 1.0 12 10 Foreign : 12.3 4.9 -16.5 8.4 18 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-412-33 Reliability of July Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 4.0 5.2 -11.9 18.4 11 12 U.S. : 6.1 3.7 -9.8 12.7 10 13 Foreign : 6.5 4.4 -10.3 6.2 13 10 Exports : World : 6.8 2.5 -10.7 4.7 15 8 U.S. : 10.9 2.2 -6.0 6.2 13 10 Foreign : 18.1 2.0 -9.9 2.6 12 11 Domestic use : World : 3.6 4.6 -9.9 7.6 15 8 U.S. : 4.9 1.9 -4.4 5.6 14 9 Foreign : 4.1 3.6 -8.8 4.6 15 8 Ending stocks : World : 14.0 2.9 -8.2 6.8 14 9 U.S. : 42.6 2.7 -4.0 8.2 7 16 Foreign : 18.3 2.8 -9.8 3.5 15 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.9 3.2 -13.3 10.3 14 9 U.S. : 8.3 1.3 -2.8 3.6 14 9 Foreign : 4.0 2.8 -12.1 10.5 11 11 Exports : World : 4.9 1.2 -4.1 2.7 12 11 U.S. : 17.9 1.0 -2.1 2.8 15 8 Foreign : 6.4 1.2 -3.4 2.0 8 15 Mill use : World : 2.5 2.1 -7.8 3.4 10 13 U.S. : 7.6 0.6 -1.4 1.3 12 10 Foreign : 2.6 2.0 -7.1 4.0 10 13 Ending stocks : World : 14.3 5.0 -14.3 15.3 14 9 U.S. : 32.5 1.4 -3.4 2.4 10 13 Foreign : 13.9 4.2 -13.9 12.9 15 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 23 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-412-34 Reliability of United States July Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 8.0 551 -1103 2034 12 11 Exports : 16.7 301 -775 546 9 14 Domestic use : 4.4 267 -558 770 16 7 Ending stocks : 38.0 535 -1840 1343 9 14 : SORGHUM : Production : 14.4 86 -213 176 12 11 Exports : 17.0 40 -115 97 11 12 Domestic use : 15.4 58 -139 113 10 13 Ending stocks : 52.1 67 -174 157 7 16 : BARLEY : Production : 6.5 26 -87 62 7 15 Exports : 32.5 19 -92 43 15 7 Domestic use : 9.2 33 -47 87 10 13 Ending stocks : 20.4 35 -50 114 8 15 : OATS : Production : 10.4 28 -39 144 4 18 Exports : 71.4 2 -5 8 8 9 Domestic use : 6.0 21 -39 67 8 15 Ending stocks : 14.6 17 -33 68 9 14 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.7 1432 -3271 4432 15 8 Exports : 14.4 912 -2450 1764 10 13 Domestic use : 4.4 1003 -1550 4470 12 11 Ending stocks : 32.5 76 -204 413 8 15 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.5 636 -1753 1820 14 9 Exports : 24.5 381 -1550 1219 13 10 Domestic use : 3.1 401 -985 1050 15 8 Ending stocks : 37.0 520 -1123 1568 9 14 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.2 306 -258 694 15 7 Pork : 0.9 157 -277 473 12 10 Broilers : 0.7 170 -301 469 14 8 Turkeys : 1.2 50 -134 101 15 7 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.8 49 -48 115 15 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.5 0.7 -2.7 2.1 10 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 23 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2003 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1980/81 thru 2002/03 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. -------------- End of File -------------