WASDE-414 September 10, 2004 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are unchanged from last month as no changes are made to supplies or usage. The projected price range is narrowed by 5 cents on either end to $3.00 to $3.50. Projected 2004/05 global wheat production and usage are up slightly but stocks are unchanged from last month. At 610.6 million tons, this year's crop is up nearly 2 million tons from last month and exceeds the record of 610 million tons produced in 1997/98. Foreign production is up nearly 2 million tons from last month and is nearly 66 million tons above last year. Noteworthy increases in production from last month are projected for Ukraine (up 1.5 million tons), Romania (up 1.2 million tons), and the EU-25 (up nearly 1 million tons). These increases are partially offset by lower crops in Kazakhstan (down 2 million tons), Australia (down 0.5 million tons), and Uzbekistan (down 0.3 million tons). Global consumption is raised by just over 2 million tons from last month, with half the increase accounted for by higher feed use. Relative to last month, the largest increase in use is a 1-million-ton increase projected for the EU-25, followed by smaller increases in Ukraine and several other countries of the FSU-12. Global imports are nearly unchanged but exports from Kazakhstan are reduced 1 million tons while exports by Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, and Uzbekistan are raised. Projected global ending stocks are unchanged from last month. However, stocks are raised in Romania (up nearly 1 million tons) and Ukraine (up 0.5 million tons) while stocks are lowered by 1 million tons in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan (down 0.7 million tons), and Australia (down 0.5 million tons). COARSE GRAINS: This month's outlook for 2004/05 U.S. feed grains is for a larger total crop and larger ending stocks. Forecast 2004 corn production is up 38 million bushels from last month to a record 10,961 million bushels. Forecast 2004 grain sorghum production is up 7 million bushels. Projected beginning stocks of 2004/05 corn rise 40 million bushels due to a reduction in 2003/04 exports. With no change in projected 2004/05 corn use, projected ending stocks rise 77 million bushels from last month. The larger grain sorghum crop is reflected in increased 2004/05 stocks. The projected price range for corn is down 5 cents on each end from last month to $2.00 to $2.40 per bushel. For grain sorghum, the projected price range is lowered by 10 cents on each end to $1.90 to $2.30 per bushel. Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply and use projections are up slightly from last month. Ending stocks are also up, due in part to an increase in beginning stocks. Global production is raised to a record 959 million tons, up 3 million tons from last month and over 6 percent larger than 2003/04. Relative to last month, larger crops are projected for the United States, the EU-25 (up nearly 2 million tons), and the Ukraine (up 1.2 million tons) with smaller increases projected for several other countries. Production is lowered for Russia (down 0.9 million tons), Kazakhstan (down 0.5 million tons), and China (down nearly 0.5 million tons, mostly sorghum) with smaller reductions in other countries. Global imports are up fractionally from last month. However, larger exports are projected for the Ukraine, Romania, and Serbia, and smaller exports are projected from Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Global stocks are raised nearly 4 million tons from last month and are up 2 million tons from last year. An increase in beginning stocks contributes 1.3 million tons to the increase in ending stocks but ending stocks are also up due to larger stocks in the United States and the EU-25, with smaller increases in several other countries. Sorghum stocks in China are lowered nearly 0.5 million tons. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2004/05 is forecast at a record 221.7 million cwt, fractionally higher than last month. Planted and harvested area are estimated at 3.364 million acres and 3.334 million acres, respectively (each up 0.5 percent from last month). Average yield is estimated at a record 6,651 pounds per acre, down 29 pounds per acre from last month. Long-grain production is estimated at 162.5 million cwt, up 1 percent from last month, and combined medium and short-grain production is estimated at 59.2 million cwt, down nearly 3 percent from a month ago. While no changes are made to domestic and residual use and exports for all rice, slight changes are made to the by-class projections. Beginning stocks are lowered from last month. Ending stocks of all rice are projected at 32.9 million cwt, 3 percent below last month, but 39 percent above 2003/04. The season-average farm price is projected at $7.00 to $7.50 per cwt, up 25 cents per cwt on both ends from a month earlier. On August 27 the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimated August 1 U.S. rice stocks at 23.7 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), 1.1 million cwt below last month's projection, and 3.1 million cwt below a year earlier. NASS estimated rough rice stocks at 19.5 million cwt and milled rice stocks at 2.95 million cwt. Global 2004/05 rice production and ending stocks projections are raised from last month while consumption, imports, and exports are lowered slightly. Production is raised for the United States, Indonesia, and Egypt and lowered for Australia. Ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 68.8 million tons, 0.7 million tons above last month. The increase in stocks is due mainly to larger stocks projected for Vietnam and Egypt. Exports are lowered for Vietnam and Australia. Imports are lowered for Afghanistan and Indonesia, but raised for Saudi Arabia and North Korea. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 6.3 million tons, unchanged from last month, as lower oilseed production is offset by reduced use. U.S. oilseed production is projected at 87.7 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from last month, reflecting a production decline for soybeans. Soybean production is forecast at 2,836 million bushels, down 41 million bushels from last month's projection based on lower yield prospects, particularly in the upper Midwest. Projected soybean exports are reduced 30 million bushels due to reduced global import demand. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels due to lower soybean meal export prospects. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 190 million bushels, unchanged from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2004/05 is projected at $5.35 to $6.25 compared with $5.40 to $6.40 per bushel last month, reflecting weaker use and lower corn prices. Soybean meal prices are projected at $170 to $200 per short ton, down $10.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 23.5 to 26.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents per pound on both ends of the range. For 2003/04, soybean exports are reduced 5 million bushels to 885 million bushels. Soybean crush is raised 20 million bushels to 1,535 million bushels, reflecting stronger-than-expected crush through the summer months. Soybean stocks are estimated at 105 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 380.5 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production, primarily soybeans and rapeseed, is up 2.6 million tons. Soybean production for India is raised 1.3 million tons to 7 million tons. Area is sharply higher, reflecting producers' response to higher prices. Foreign rapeseed production is increased 1.1 million tons based on indications of higher yields in the EU-25, primarily in Germany and Czech Republic. Other changes include increased sunflowerseed production for Ukraine, Romania, and Hungary, partially offset by reductions for Italy and China. Global oilseed trade for 2004/05 is forecast lower this month, primarily due to smaller soybean imports by China, Egypt, and Malaysia. Global oilseed ending stocks are increased for both 2003/04 and 2004/05. Soybean ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected to increase to 51.5 million tons, up 14.2 million tons from 2003/04. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2004/05 is decreased 41,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, as lower production more than offsets higher beginning stocks. Beet sugar production is raised 26,000 tons while cane sugar is lowered 77,000 tons, as reported by processors to the Farm Service Agency. Florida cane sugar production is unchanged. Sugar use is unchanged. For 2003/04, supply is increased 10,000 tons based on processor production reports, while use is unchanged. Ending stocks are increased 10,000 tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada in 2003, forecasts for 2004 and 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 are unchanged. Meat production forecasts for 2004 are lowered slightly as increased second-half broiler meat production is offset by lower beef production. Broiler hatchery data indicate continued growth in broiler meat production. Beef production is reduced because the pace of cattle placements and marketings has been slower than expected. Pork production is unchanged. The NASS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released September 24, will provide an indication of producers' intentions into 2005. Meat trade forecasts are slightly changed in 2004 and 2005. Beef imports are raised because of stronger expected shipments from Canada and Uruguay. Broiler exports are decreased primarily due to slower-than-expected shipments to Asia. Price forecasts for 2004 and 2005 are little changed from last month. The cattle price forecast for 2004 is lowered as prices have been weaker than expected, and the broiler price forecast is reduced as broiler supplies are forecast larger. The hog price forecast is unchanged from last month. Turkey prices are forecast higher as hatch data continue to point toward lower production in 2004 and growth is expected to be limited in 2005. The egg price forecast lowered from last month as prices have been weaker than previously forecast. The milk production forecast for 2003/04 is raised due to a slightly larger cow herd and mild summer weather which results in higher-than-expected milk yields. Production in 2004/05 is increased from last month based on data pointing to a larger cow herd than previously forecast. Milk price forecasts for 2003/04 are little changed from last month but are raised for 2004/05. Forecasts for Class III and Class IV milk are higher compared to last month based on expected strength in product prices through the first part of the 2004/05 marketing year. The all-milk price is raised to $13.25-$14.05 per cwt for 2004/05. COTTON: The 2004/05 U.S. cotton projections reflect upward revisions in supply and demand this month. Forecast production is raised 712,000 bales to a record 20.9 million bales. However, beginning stocks are reduced 100,000 bales to 3.5 million bales based on a preliminary Bureau of the Census report for 2003/04; thus, the total supply is raised to 24.4 million bales. Domestic mill use is raised 200,000 bales in both 2003/04 and 2004/05 to reflect additional mill use not included in previous Census reports. Exports are raised 200,000 bales in 2004/05 to 12.2 million bales. Accordingly, ending stocks are revised up slightly to 6.1 million bales. The world cotton projections for 2004/05 show higher production and stocks compared to last month. Production is revised up to 107.3 million bales, as increases for the United States, India, and Uzbekistan are partially offset by reductions for China and Australia. A slight increase in world consumption reflects the U.S. change. Changes to world trade include largely offsetting adjustments for several producing countries, most notably an increase of 350,000 bales in imports by China due to smaller forecast production. World exports are raised slightly, as increases for the United States, Uzbekistan, and India are partially offset by reductions for Australia and Brazil. World ending stocks are increased 2 percent to 40.0 million bales. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: JAMES R. MOSELEY ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on October 12, 2004. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2004: Oct. 12, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. In 2005, the WASDE report will be released on Jan. 12, Feb. 9, Mar. 10, Apr. 8, May 12, June 10, July 12, Aug. 12, Sept. 12, Oct. 12, Nov. 10, and Dec. 9. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. Mail: Government Printing Office, Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-0001. ELECTRONIC ACCESS This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically in either ascii text format or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. Click on the "Reports by E-Mail" button to sign up for e-mail delivery of the WASDE and other USDA releases in text format. An electronic calendar of USDA release dates is posted at: http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/rptcal/calindex.htm. WASDE-414-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 1,816.72 2,352.56 241.06 1,910.04 442.52 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,838.47 2,280.99 231.24 1,936.65 344.34 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 1,962.16 2,305.08 235.25 1,968.17 336.90 September : 1,967.57 2,311.91 235.15 1,970.54 341.37 Wheat : 2002/03 : 566.93 769.00 108.38 601.59 167.41 2003/04 (Est.) : 550.77 718.18 107.51 585.81 132.36 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 608.64 740.94 105.77 598.61 142.32 September : 610.61 742.97 105.77 600.64 142.33 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 871.93 1,066.52 104.08 901.11 165.40 2003/04 (Est.) : 900.72 1,066.12 98.93 937.91 128.21 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 956.16 1,083.11 104.00 956.58 126.53 September : 959.18 1,087.39 104.30 957.07 130.32 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 377.86 517.05 28.60 407.33 109.71 2003/04 (Est.) : 386.98 496.69 24.80 412.93 83.77 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 397.35 481.03 25.48 412.98 68.05 September : 397.78 481.55 25.08 412.83 68.72 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 293.96 366.70 72.71 248.84 45.14 2003/04 (Est.) : 345.66 395.69 88.23 262.93 44.54 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 362.11 410.20 88.90 270.67 50.64 September : 363.26 412.33 88.90 270.67 52.77 Wheat : 2002/03 : 43.71 67.16 23.14 30.64 13.37 2003/04 (Est.) : 63.59 78.93 31.56 32.52 14.86 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 57.78 74.27 25.86 32.69 15.73 September : 57.78 74.27 25.86 32.69 15.73 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 243.72 291.32 45.72 214.67 30.94 2003/04 (Est.) : 275.70 309.06 53.41 226.73 28.92 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 297.30 327.64 59.65 234.16 33.83 September : 298.44 329.81 59.65 234.17 35.99 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.53 0.83 2003/04 (Est.) : 6.37 7.70 3.26 3.68 0.76 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 7.04 8.29 3.40 3.82 1.08 September : 7.04 8.26 3.40 3.82 1.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-414-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 1,522.76 1,985.86 168.35 1,661.20 397.38 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,492.81 1,885.30 143.02 1,673.72 299.80 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 1,600.04 1,894.87 146.35 1,697.50 286.27 September : 1,604.31 1,899.57 146.25 1,699.87 288.60 Wheat : 2002/03 : 523.23 701.84 85.24 570.95 154.03 2003/04 (Est.) : 487.18 639.24 75.96 553.29 117.50 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 550.86 666.67 79.91 565.93 126.60 September : 552.83 668.70 79.91 567.95 126.61 Coarse grains 5/ : 2002/03 : 628.21 775.19 58.36 686.45 134.46 2003/04 (Est.) : 625.02 757.06 45.52 711.17 99.29 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 658.87 755.46 44.36 722.41 92.70 September : 660.73 757.58 44.66 722.91 94.32 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 371.33 508.82 24.74 403.80 108.88 2003/04 (Est.) : 380.61 488.99 21.54 409.25 83.01 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 390.31 472.74 22.09 409.17 66.97 September : 390.74 473.29 21.69 409.01 67.67 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2002/03 : 88.28 135.59 30.36 98.60 36.61 2003/04 (Est.) : 94.33 130.94 32.97 98.85 33.42 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 106.59 139.60 31.30 100.66 39.22 September : 107.25 140.67 31.52 100.85 40.03 : United States 2002/03 : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.39 2003/04 (Est.) : 18.26 23.69 13.80 6.49 3.50 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 20.18 23.82 12.00 5.90 5.90 September : 20.90 24.44 12.20 6.10 6.10 : Foreign 3/ 2002/03 : 71.07 110.86 18.46 91.33 31.22 2003/04 (Est.) : 76.08 107.25 19.17 92.36 29.92 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 86.41 115.78 19.30 94.76 33.32 September : 86.35 116.24 19.32 94.75 33.93 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-414-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 329.28 367.10 70.94 267.48 44.52 2003/04 (Est.) : 335.33 379.85 67.00 279.69 41.85 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 378.76 419.29 76.65 299.85 54.90 September : 380.54 422.40 75.49 301.04 56.87 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 184.70 190.47 53.25 187.08 4.93 2003/04 (Est.) : 192.28 197.21 57.52 193.08 4.92 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 206.16 211.10 60.61 204.88 5.63 September : 206.56 211.48 60.46 205.35 5.61 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 94.84 103.09 35.96 96.10 6.58 2003/04 (Est.) : 100.78 107.36 37.24 99.57 6.54 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 105.46 112.07 38.90 104.89 6.49 September : 105.87 112.41 38.81 105.13 6.32 : : United States Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 83.94 91.36 29.43 47.51 5.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 75.62 82.06 25.11 45.68 3.90 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 88.59 93.11 28.99 48.23 6.28 September : 87.73 92.30 28.17 48.10 6.32 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 36.59 38.07 5.66 32.17 0.24 2003/04 (Est.) : 35.22 37.17 4.15 32.77 0.25 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 37.28 38.78 4.90 33.61 0.27 September : 37.07 38.60 4.69 33.64 0.27 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 9.20 12.05 1.24 9.91 0.90 2003/04 (Est.) : 8.72 11.44 0.70 9.98 0.77 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 9.27 11.64 0.72 10.14 0.77 September : 9.19 11.60 0.70 10.15 0.75 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 245.35 275.74 41.50 219.97 38.69 2003/04 (Est.) : 259.71 297.79 41.89 234.01 37.95 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 290.17 326.18 47.67 251.62 48.62 September : 292.81 330.10 47.32 252.94 50.55 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 148.11 152.40 47.60 154.91 4.69 2003/04 (Est.) : 157.06 160.04 53.38 160.31 4.67 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 168.87 172.32 55.70 171.27 5.36 September : 169.49 172.88 55.76 171.71 5.34 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 85.64 91.04 34.72 86.19 5.69 2003/04 (Est.) : 92.06 95.92 36.54 89.60 5.78 2004/05 (Proj.) : August : 96.19 100.44 38.18 94.75 5.71 September : 96.68 100.82 38.11 94.98 5.57 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-414-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 60.3 61.7 59.7 59.7 Harvested : 45.8 52.8 50.6 50.6 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.0 44.2 42.0 42.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 777 491 546 546 Production : 1,606 2,337 2,123 2,123 Imports : 85 72 60 60 Supply, total : 2,468 2,900 2,729 2,729 Food : 923 911 920 920 Seed : 84 80 81 81 Feed and residual : 119 204 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,126 1,195 1,201 1,201 Exports : 850 1,159 950 950 Use, total : 1,976 2,354 2,151 2,151 Ending stocks : 491 546 578 578 CCC inventory : 66 61 60 Free stocks : 425 485 518 Outstanding loans : 51 37 60 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.56 3.40 2.95- 3.55 3.00- 3.50 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2003/04 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,063 500 379 298 97 2,337 Supply, total 3/ : 1,252 659 456 387 147 2,900 Domestic use : 512 231 253 123 76 1,195 Exports : 512 272 140 192 44 1,159 Use, total : 1,024 503 392 315 120 2,354 Ending stocks, total : 228 156 64 72 26 546 : 2004/05 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 228 156 64 72 26 546 Production : 853 502 380 298 89 2,123 Supply, total 3/ : 1,082 667 456 378 145 2,729 Domestic use : 481 265 255 116 84 1,201 Exports : 350 240 150 180 30 950 Use, total : 831 505 405 296 114 2,151 Ending stocks, total : September : 251 162 51 82 31 578 August : 251 162 51 82 31 578 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-414-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.5 98.1 98.0 98.0 Harvested : 82.6 85.8 86.4 86.4 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.95 3.21 3.44 3.45 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.0 30.9 27.9 28.9 Production : 243.6 275.5 297.1 298.2 Imports : 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 Supply, total : 291.0 308.7 327.3 329.5 Feed and residual : 149.5 155.7 157.4 157.4 Food, seed & industrial : 64.9 70.7 76.5 76.5 Domestic, total : 214.3 226.4 233.9 233.9 Exports : 45.7 53.4 59.6 59.6 Use, total : 260.1 279.8 293.5 293.5 Ending stocks, total : 30.9 28.9 33.8 36.0 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 30.8 28.9 36.0 Outstanding loans : 7.1 4.4 8.3 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.9 78.7 81.0 81.0 Harvested : 69.3 71.1 73.4 73.4 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 129.3 142.2 148.9 149.4 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,596 1,087 914 954 Production : 8,967 10,114 10,923 10,961 Imports : 14 13 15 15 Supply, total : 10,578 11,214 11,852 11,929 Feed and residual : 5,563 5,800 5,850 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 2,340 2,575 2,770 2,770 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 996 1,200 1,370 1,370 Domestic, total : 7,903 8,375 8,620 8,620 Exports : 1,588 1,885 2,100 2,100 Use, total : 9,491 10,260 10,720 10,720 Ending stocks, total : 1,087 954 1,132 1,209 CCC inventory : 4 0 0 Free stocks : 1,083 954 1,209 Outstanding loans : 277 164 320 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.32 2.40 2.05- 2.45 2.00- 2.40 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-414-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.4 8.1 8.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.1 7.8 6.9 6.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 50.6 52.7 67.2 68.3 Beginning stocks : 61 43 44 44 Production : 361 411 465 472 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 422 454 509 517 Feed and residual : 170 190 180 180 Food, seed & industrial : 24 20 50 50 Total domestic : 194 210 230 230 Exports : 184 200 225 225 Use, total : 379 410 455 455 Ending stocks, total : 43 44 54 62 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.32 2.38 2.00- 2.40 1.90- 2.30 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.3 4.7 4.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.1 4.7 4.2 4.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.0 58.9 65.7 65.7 Beginning stocks : 92 69 120 120 Production : 227 276 273 273 Imports : 18 21 20 20 Supply, total : 337 366 413 413 Feed and residual : 65 55 90 90 Food, seed & industrial : 173 172 172 172 Total domestic : 238 227 262 262 Exports : 30 19 25 25 Use, total : 268 246 287 287 Ending stocks, total : 69 120 126 126 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.72 2.83 2.25- 2.65 2.25- 2.65 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.4 65.0 66.0 66.0 Beginning stocks : 63 50 65 65 Production : 116 145 128 128 Imports : 95 90 90 90 Supply, total : 274 285 283 283 Feed and residual : 150 145 140 140 Food, seed & industrial : 72 73 74 74 Total domestic : 222 218 214 214 Exports : 3 2 3 3 Use, total : 224 220 217 217 Ending stocks, total : 50 65 66 66 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.81 1.48 1.25- 1.55 1.25- 1.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-414-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.24 3.02 3.35 3.36 Harvested : 3.21 3.00 3.32 3.33 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,578 6,645 6,680 6,651 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.0 26.8 24.8 23.7 Production : 211.0 199.2 221.6 221.7 Imports : 14.8 15.8 14.5 14.5 Supply, total : 264.8 241.7 260.9 259.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 113.4 116.0 120.1 120.1 Exports, total 4/ : 124.6 102.0 107.0 107.0 Rough : 42.8 34.0 35.0 35.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.8 68.0 72.0 72.0 Use, total : 238.0 218.0 227.1 227.1 Ending stocks : 26.8 23.7 33.9 32.9 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.3 70.5 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.49 7.49 6.75- 7.25 7.00- 7.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.51 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,260 6,451 Beginning stocks : 26.8 15.7 13.9 10.3 Production : 157.2 149.0 160.9 162.5 Supply, total 7/ : 194.1 174.7 185.1 183.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 79.1 85.4 85.0 84.0 Exports 8/ : 99.3 79.0 83.0 82.0 Use, total : 178.4 164.4 168.0 166.0 Ending stocks : 15.7 10.3 17.1 17.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.69 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,729 7,299 Beginning stocks : 10.7 9.3 9.1 12.4 Production : 53.7 50.1 60.7 59.2 Supply, total 7/ : 68.9 66.0 74.1 75.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.3 30.6 35.1 36.1 Exports 8/ : 25.3 23.0 24.0 25.0 Use, total : 59.6 53.6 59.1 61.1 Ending stocks : 9.3 12.4 15.0 14.7 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-414-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.0 73.4 74.8 74.8 Harvested : 72.5 72.3 73.7 73.7 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.0 33.4 39.1 38.5 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 208 178 105 105 Production : 2,756 2,418 2,877 2,836 Imports : 5 6 6 6 Supply, total : 2,969 2,602 2,988 2,947 Crushings : 1,615 1,535 1,625 1,615 Exports : 1,044 885 1,030 1,000 Seed : 89 91 90 90 Residual : 41 -15 _3/ 53 53 Use, total : 2,791 2,497 2,798 2,758 Ending stocks : 178 105 190 190 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.53 7.35 5.40- 6.40 5.35 - 6.25 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,358 1,491 1,051 1,131 Production : 18,438 17,105 _4/ 18,280 18,090 Imports : 46 285 105 105 Supply, total : 20,843 18,881 19,436 19,326 Domestic : 17,089 16,850 17,200 17,200 Exports : 2,263 900 1,050 1,000 Use, total : 19,352 17,750 18,250 18,200 Ending stocks : 1,491 1,131 1,186 1,126 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.04 30.00 23.00- 23.50- : 26.00 26.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 240 220 175 225 Production : 38,213 36,455 _4/ 38,710 38,410 Imports : 166 250 165 165 Supply, total : 38,619 36,925 39,050 38,800 Domestic : 32,379 32,350 33,600 33,600 Exports : 6,019 4,350 5,200 4,950 Use, total : 38,399 36,700 38,800 38,550 Ending stocks : 220 225 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 181.57 260.00 180.00- 170.00- : 210.00 200.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through June, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate a below-average residual. 4/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,530 million bushels. WASDE-414-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :===================== : : Estimate : August September ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,528 1,661 2,159 2,169 Production 2/ : 8,379 8,857 8,587 8,536 Beet sugar : 4,415 4,809 4,545 4,571 Cane sugar 3/ : 3,964 4,048 4,042 3,965 Imports : 1,730 1,756 1,629 1,629 TRQ 4/ : 1,210 1,226 1,229 1,229 Other program 5/ : 488 480 350 350 Other 6/ : 32 50 50 50 Supply, total : 11,637 12,274 12,375 12,334 : Exports : 142 240 200 200 Deliveries : 9,674 9,865 9,905 9,905 Food : 9,466 9,670 9,715 9,715 Other 7/ : 208 195 190 190 Miscellaneous 8/ : 160 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,976 10,105 10,105 10,105 Ending stocks : 1,661 2,169 2,270 2,229 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.6 21.5 22.5 22.1 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production for 2003/04 and 2004/05 are based on processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Other projections are based on analyses the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 3/ Production by state for 2003/04 (projected 2004/05): FL 2,154 (2,011); HI 256 (262); LA 1,458 (1,526); TX 180 (166); PR 0 (0). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2004/05, includes shortfall of 50,000 tons. 5/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/ Includes high-tier and other. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 8/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-414-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.96 13.48 13.87 13.76 Harvested : 12.42 12.00 13.32 13.22 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 665 730 727 759 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 7.45 5.39 3.60 3.50 Production : 17.21 18.26 20.18 20.90 Imports : 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 24.72 23.69 23.82 24.44 Domestic use : 7.27 6.49 5.90 6.10 Exports : 11.90 13.80 12.00 12.20 Use, total : 19.17 20.29 17.90 18.30 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.17 -0.10 0.02 0.04 Ending stocks : 5.39 3.50 5.90 6.10 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 44.5 62.2 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August 2003-July 2004. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2004/05 is 33.5 percent. WASDE-414-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 202.06 566.93 107.83 112.68 601.59 108.38 167.41 United States : 21.15 43.71 2.30 3.25 30.64 23.14 13.37 Total foreign : 180.92 523.23 105.53 109.43 570.95 85.24 154.03 Major exporters 4/ : 30.84 163.11 14.60 66.95 136.07 45.25 27.23 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.16 6.76 1.53 Australia : 8.05 10.13 0.29 3.45 6.18 9.15 3.14 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.38 4.06 8.18 9.40 5.73 EU-25 5/ : 14.92 124.48 13.92 59.36 116.55 19.94 16.83 Major importers 6/ : 96.57 143.51 54.36 11.38 210.57 5.17 78.70 Brazil : 0.90 2.93 6.73 0.45 9.89 0.01 0.66 China : 76.59 90.29 0.42 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.38 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.67 16.64 10.27 1.55 26.44 0.50 6.65 N. Africa 8/ : 5.61 11.70 18.71 0.30 29.67 0.38 5.98 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.19 0.40 18.38 1.19 1.44 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.65 0.00 9.30 1.63 9.06 0.33 1.57 Selected other : India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.29 4.85 15.70 FSU-12 : 16.64 96.96 4.10 23.91 73.66 25.82 18.23 Russia : 6.48 50.55 1.05 16.00 39.32 12.62 6.13 Kazakhstan : 4.70 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 6.24 5.42 Ukraine : 2.96 20.56 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.26 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 167.41 550.77 102.98 97.70 585.81 107.51 132.36 United States : 13.37 63.59 1.97 5.55 32.52 31.56 14.86 Total foreign : 154.03 487.18 101.01 92.15 553.29 75.96 117.50 Major exporters 4/ : 27.23 168.49 6.29 59.37 127.59 51.10 23.31 Argentina : 1.53 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 7.50 2.26 Australia : 3.14 24.92 0.08 3.00 5.70 17.50 4.94 Canada : 5.73 23.50 0.20 3.43 7.56 15.80 6.06 EU-25 5/ : 16.83 106.57 6.00 52.87 109.05 10.30 10.05 Major importers 6/ : 78.70 148.46 51.93 9.82 210.37 6.86 61.86 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.30 0.20 9.90 1.40 0.51 China : 60.38 86.49 3.75 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.65 16.83 8.09 1.05 25.56 1.00 5.01 N. Africa 8/ : 5.98 16.34 15.60 0.30 30.33 0.26 7.34 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.58 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 9.75 1.32 9.15 0.32 1.86 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.01 0.60 68.41 5.50 6.90 FSU-12 : 18.23 61.41 7.14 16.68 65.03 9.03 12.73 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.20 2.53 Kazakhstan : 5.42 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 5.20 5.64 Ukraine : 3.26 3.60 3.50 0.23 9.16 0.07 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-414-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 132.30 608.64 102.63 105.70 598.61 105.77 142.32 September : 132.36 610.61 102.48 106.80 600.64 105.77 142.33 United States : August : 14.86 57.78 1.63 5.44 32.69 25.86 15.73 September : 14.86 57.78 1.63 5.44 32.69 25.86 15.73 Total foreign : August : 117.44 550.86 101.00 100.26 565.93 79.91 126.60 September : 117.50 552.83 100.85 101.36 567.95 79.91 126.61 Major exporters 4/ : August : 23.22 192.69 5.29 64.98 133.58 56.50 31.12 September : 23.31 193.14 5.29 65.98 134.53 56.50 30.70 Argentina Aug : 2.26 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.48 8.50 2.79 Sep : 2.26 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.48 8.50 2.79 Australia Aug : 4.94 24.00 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 6.41 Sep : 4.94 23.50 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 5.91 Canada Aug : 5.98 24.50 0.20 4.00 8.20 16.00 6.48 Sep : 6.06 24.50 0.20 4.00 8.20 16.00 6.56 EU-25 5/ Aug : 10.05 129.69 5.00 58.00 114.30 15.00 15.44 Sep : 10.05 130.64 5.00 59.00 115.25 15.00 15.44 Major importers 6/ : August : 61.72 151.47 59.40 8.51 210.51 3.18 58.91 September : 61.86 151.42 59.40 8.51 210.51 3.18 58.99 Brazil Aug : 0.51 5.00 5.50 0.40 10.20 0.10 0.71 Sep : 0.51 5.00 5.50 0.40 10.20 0.10 0.71 China Aug : 43.04 90.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.04 Sep : 43.29 90.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.29 Sel. Mideast 7/Aug : 5.01 17.67 10.25 1.50 26.49 0.70 5.74 Sep : 5.01 17.62 10.25 1.50 26.49 0.70 5.69 N. Africa 8/ Aug : 7.34 16.48 15.30 0.30 31.03 0.26 7.83 Sep : 7.34 16.48 15.30 0.30 31.03 0.26 7.83 Pakistan Aug : 1.64 19.00 1.00 0.40 19.30 0.05 2.29 Sep : 1.58 19.00 1.00 0.40 19.30 0.05 2.23 SE Asia 9/ Aug : 1.86 0.00 9.75 1.38 9.40 0.32 1.89 Sep : 1.86 0.00 9.75 1.38 9.40 0.32 1.89 Selected other : India Aug : 6.90 72.00 0.02 0.50 69.92 1.50 7.50 Sep : 6.90 72.00 0.02 0.50 69.92 1.50 7.50 FSU-12 Aug : 12.88 84.29 4.49 19.91 70.88 13.66 17.12 Sep : 12.73 84.56 4.34 20.01 71.80 13.26 16.57 Russia Aug : 2.23 43.50 1.50 13.50 37.50 5.00 4.73 Sep : 2.53 43.50 1.50 13.50 37.50 5.00 5.03 Kazakhstan Aug : 5.64 12.00 0.02 1.80 6.50 5.50 5.65 Sep : 5.64 10.00 0.02 1.80 6.50 4.50 4.65 Ukraine Aug : 1.13 16.00 0.50 2.50 12.00 3.00 2.63 Sep : 1.13 17.50 0.50 2.50 12.50 3.50 3.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-414-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 194.59 871.93 102.71 596.01 901.11 104.08 165.40 United States : 45.04 243.72 2.57 149.56 214.67 45.72 30.94 Total foreign : 149.55 628.21 100.15 446.45 686.45 58.36 134.46 Major exporters 4/ : 8.44 56.12 4.86 31.79 44.57 16.90 7.95 Argentina : 0.96 19.45 0.00 5.12 7.33 11.94 1.14 Australia : 1.99 6.65 0.01 4.03 5.36 2.12 1.17 Canada : 3.52 19.89 4.24 18.45 22.81 1.70 3.14 Major importers 5/ : 35.78 203.33 78.46 201.52 270.39 10.14 37.03 EU-25 6/ : 21.07 137.45 6.35 102.03 135.51 8.63 20.72 Japan : 2.34 0.22 20.32 15.65 20.48 0.00 2.40 Mexico : 4.27 26.49 8.75 19.58 35.62 0.01 3.89 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.55 23.58 25.16 39.52 45.93 0.96 6.40 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.15 4.15 13.44 18.75 0.55 1.06 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.89 6.64 9.19 0.00 1.25 Selected other : China : 85.55 130.73 1.83 98.43 136.40 15.34 66.37 Other Europe : 2.25 22.24 1.02 17.25 21.00 1.49 3.02 FSU-12 : 11.45 60.74 0.90 34.99 52.78 8.09 12.22 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.30 29.85 3.44 7.20 Ukraine : 2.61 17.11 0.43 9.30 13.26 3.99 2.90 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 165.40 900.72 100.31 615.88 937.91 98.93 128.21 United States : 30.94 275.70 2.42 155.77 226.73 53.41 28.92 Total foreign : 134.46 625.02 97.89 460.11 711.17 45.52 99.29 Major exporters 4/ : 7.95 64.47 2.63 33.80 47.04 19.25 8.76 Argentina : 1.14 16.44 0.02 4.80 7.16 9.11 1.34 Australia : 1.17 12.44 0.00 5.07 6.40 5.62 1.60 Canada : 3.14 26.31 1.87 19.60 24.19 3.48 3.66 Major importers 5/ : 37.03 193.12 77.70 204.04 273.05 5.19 29.61 EU-25 6/ : 20.72 121.73 8.09 101.70 134.97 4.04 11.52 Japan : 2.40 0.20 20.11 15.62 20.44 0.00 2.27 Mexico : 3.89 28.70 8.82 20.18 36.22 0.02 5.17 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 6.40 26.54 22.60 41.79 48.44 0.35 6.74 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.60 3.38 12.60 17.96 0.78 1.29 South Korea : 1.25 0.30 9.75 7.58 10.14 0.00 1.15 Selected other : China : 66.37 124.64 1.56 100.50 139.25 8.18 45.14 Other Europe : 3.02 17.95 1.31 16.92 20.66 0.30 1.33 FSU-12 : 12.22 55.32 1.57 39.22 56.90 6.47 5.74 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.91 21.53 33.25 2.68 2.69 Ukraine : 2.90 15.60 0.33 10.50 14.10 3.01 1.71 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-414-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 126.94 956.16 98.91 623.94 956.58 104.00 126.53 September : 128.21 959.18 99.16 624.10 957.07 104.30 130.32 United States : August : 27.90 297.30 2.44 157.48 234.16 59.65 33.83 September : 28.92 298.44 2.44 157.48 234.17 59.65 35.99 Total foreign : August : 99.04 658.87 96.47 466.46 722.41 44.36 92.70 September : 99.29 660.73 96.72 466.62 722.91 44.66 94.32 Major exporters 4/ : August : 8.53 67.06 3.26 34.06 47.81 21.46 9.58 September : 8.76 66.41 3.26 33.71 47.51 21.06 9.85 Argentina Aug : 1.34 19.25 0.01 4.88 7.39 11.56 1.65 Sep : 1.34 19.25 0.01 4.88 7.49 11.56 1.55 Australia Aug : 1.52 11.56 0.00 5.26 6.59 5.07 1.41 Sep : 1.60 11.26 0.00 4.96 6.29 4.87 1.70 Canada Aug : 3.92 26.52 2.55 19.58 24.53 3.80 4.65 Sep : 3.66 26.17 2.55 19.53 24.43 3.60 4.34 Major importers 5/ : August : 29.71 212.09 75.59 206.87 277.08 4.09 36.22 September : 29.61 213.98 75.79 207.97 278.36 4.09 36.93 EU-25 6/ Aug : 11.52 141.51 3.06 101.99 135.90 3.31 16.89 Sep : 11.52 143.41 3.06 102.69 136.78 3.31 17.90 Japan Aug : 2.27 0.24 20.09 15.51 20.34 0.00 2.27 Sep : 2.27 0.24 20.09 15.51 20.34 0.00 2.27 Mexico Aug : 5.47 27.45 10.94 22.17 38.31 0.01 5.53 Sep : 5.17 27.45 10.94 22.17 38.31 0.01 5.23 N Afr/M.East 7/Aug : 6.54 26.57 23.62 42.29 49.16 0.15 7.41 Sep : 6.74 26.56 23.82 42.69 49.56 0.15 7.40 S.-east Asia 8/Aug : 1.29 15.92 3.74 13.47 18.96 0.63 1.36 Sep : 1.29 15.92 3.74 13.47 18.96 0.63 1.36 South Korea Aug : 1.15 0.33 9.31 6.94 9.59 0.00 1.20 Sep : 1.15 0.33 9.31 6.94 9.59 0.00 1.20 Selected other : China Aug : 45.67 129.30 2.01 102.80 142.85 4.08 30.05 Sep : 45.14 128.83 2.01 102.30 142.30 4.08 29.60 Other Europe Aug : 1.33 25.65 0.91 18.53 22.45 2.15 3.29 Sep : 1.33 26.30 0.91 18.58 22.50 2.45 3.59 FSU-12 Aug : 5.22 59.97 1.25 36.20 53.25 6.79 6.40 Sep : 5.74 60.42 1.35 35.96 53.12 7.19 7.21 Russia Aug : 2.19 31.10 0.90 18.50 29.20 2.10 2.89 Sep : 2.69 30.20 1.00 18.10 28.80 2.00 3.09 Ukraine Aug : 1.71 19.80 0.07 10.55 14.60 4.36 2.63 Sep : 1.71 21.00 0.07 10.80 14.95 4.96 2.88 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-414-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 148.03 600.98 76.51 434.84 626.80 78.23 122.21 United States : 40.55 227.77 0.37 141.30 200.75 40.33 27.60 Total foreign : 107.48 373.21 76.14 293.54 426.05 37.89 94.60 Major exporters 4/ : 2.27 25.18 0.44 6.50 12.52 12.30 3.07 Argentina : 0.33 15.50 0.00 2.50 4.00 11.20 0.63 South Africa : 1.94 9.68 0.44 4.00 8.52 1.10 2.44 Major importers 5/ : 11.25 89.33 48.92 93.60 133.68 2.52 13.31 Egypt : 0.25 6.00 4.85 9.10 10.90 0.00 0.20 EU-25 6/ : 2.66 49.08 4.33 38.38 49.24 2.00 4.83 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.86 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.46 Mexico : 3.40 19.28 5.27 9.50 24.70 0.01 3.24 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.05 14.85 4.15 13.20 18.50 0.51 1.04 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.57 8.78 0.00 1.25 Selected other : Brazil : 0.72 44.50 0.78 34.00 37.50 4.63 3.87 Canada : 1.06 9.00 3.95 10.28 12.58 0.31 1.11 China : 84.79 121.30 0.03 96.00 125.90 15.24 64.97 Other Europe : 1.76 17.68 0.54 14.27 16.74 0.74 2.50 FSU-12 : 1.56 8.54 0.19 6.43 7.91 0.85 1.53 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.11 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.21 618.06 77.09 447.74 646.31 74.22 93.96 United States : 27.60 256.90 0.33 147.33 212.74 47.88 24.22 Total foreign : 94.60 361.16 76.76 300.41 433.57 26.34 69.74 Major exporters 4/ : 3.07 21.45 0.61 6.70 12.90 9.65 2.58 Argentina : 0.63 12.75 0.01 2.60 4.20 8.65 0.54 South Africa : 2.44 8.70 0.60 4.10 8.70 1.00 2.04 Major importers 5/ : 13.31 82.08 49.96 91.69 131.85 1.18 12.32 Egypt : 0.20 6.15 4.00 8.40 10.20 0.00 0.15 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.50 5.70 35.70 46.50 0.40 3.12 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.80 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.36 Mexico : 3.24 21.00 5.80 11.00 26.20 0.02 3.82 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.04 15.32 3.36 12.34 17.69 0.76 1.26 South Korea : 1.25 0.07 9.50 7.40 9.67 0.00 1.15 Selected other : Brazil : 3.87 41.50 0.55 35.00 38.80 4.00 3.12 Canada : 1.11 9.60 1.80 9.00 11.50 0.30 0.71 China : 64.97 115.83 0.05 98.00 128.60 8.00 44.25 Other Europe : 2.50 14.27 0.83 13.98 16.46 0.28 0.86 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.54 0.63 9.54 11.03 1.53 1.14 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-414-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 92.53 662.87 75.30 458.06 669.73 79.06 85.67 September : 93.96 664.46 75.45 458.69 670.51 79.26 87.90 United States : August : 23.21 277.46 0.38 148.60 218.96 53.34 28.75 September : 24.22 278.42 0.38 148.60 218.96 53.34 30.72 Total foreign : August : 69.33 385.41 74.92 309.46 450.78 25.72 56.93 September : 69.74 386.04 75.07 310.09 451.56 25.92 57.19 Major exporters 4/ : August : 2.18 24.80 0.51 6.80 12.90 12.00 2.59 September : 2.58 24.80 0.51 6.80 13.00 12.00 2.89 Argentina Aug : 0.54 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.20 11.00 0.85 Sep : 0.54 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.30 11.00 0.75 South Africa Aug : 1.64 9.30 0.50 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.74 Sep : 2.04 9.30 0.50 4.10 8.70 1.00 2.14 Major importers 5/ : August : 12.61 93.54 47.61 96.80 137.96 1.11 14.69 September : 12.32 93.69 47.61 96.95 138.10 1.11 14.40 Egypt Aug : 0.15 6.20 4.50 8.80 10.70 0.00 0.15 Sep : 0.15 6.20 4.50 8.80 10.70 0.00 0.15 EU-25 6/ Aug : 3.12 51.28 2.50 40.10 51.50 0.50 4.90 Sep : 3.12 51.43 2.50 40.25 51.65 0.50 4.90 Japan Aug : 1.36 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.36 Sep : 1.36 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.36 Mexico Aug : 4.12 20.30 6.30 11.20 26.50 0.01 4.21 Sep : 3.82 20.30 6.30 11.20 26.50 0.01 3.91 S.-east Asia 7/Aug : 1.26 15.64 3.71 13.20 18.69 0.60 1.32 Sep : 1.26 15.64 3.71 13.20 18.69 0.60 1.33 South Korea Aug : 1.15 0.07 9.10 6.80 9.12 0.00 1.20 Sep : 1.15 0.07 9.10 6.80 9.12 0.00 1.20 Selected other : Brazil Aug : 3.12 43.00 0.40 36.20 40.00 4.00 2.52 Sep : 3.12 43.00 0.40 36.20 40.00 4.00 2.52 Canada Aug : 0.71 8.70 2.50 8.30 11.00 0.30 0.61 Sep : 0.71 8.70 2.50 8.30 11.00 0.30 0.61 China Aug : 44.30 120.00 0.20 100.00 131.60 4.00 28.90 Sep : 44.25 120.00 0.20 100.00 131.60 4.00 28.85 Other Europe Aug : 0.86 20.62 0.48 15.33 17.81 1.50 2.65 Sep : 0.86 21.12 0.48 15.33 17.81 1.70 2.95 FSU-12 Aug : 1.14 11.17 0.76 9.28 10.67 1.53 0.88 Sep : 1.14 11.15 0.76 9.26 10.65 1.53 0.88 Russia Aug : 0.16 2.00 0.60 2.20 2.60 0.00 0.16 Sep : 0.16 2.00 0.60 2.20 2.60 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-414-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 3/ : 139.18 377.86 26.19 407.33 28.60 109.71 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.53 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 137.97 371.33 25.71 403.80 24.74 108.88 Major exporters 4/ : 31.09 115.90 0.04 110.79 18.78 17.47 India : 24.48 72.70 0.00 80.74 5.44 11.00 Pakistan : 0.20 4.48 0.00 2.65 1.99 0.05 Thailand : 2.92 17.20 0.00 9.60 7.55 2.96 Vietnam : 3.49 21.53 0.04 17.80 3.80 3.47 Major importers 5/ : 12.40 55.12 12.11 67.04 0.33 12.26 Brazil : 0.54 7.02 1.25 8.10 0.02 0.69 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.65 1.20 2.60 0.25 0.88 Indonesia : 4.68 33.41 2.75 36.50 0.00 4.34 Nigeria : 1.01 2.20 1.90 3.75 0.00 1.35 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.50 2.00 2.51 5.05 0.06 0.89 Selected other : Burma : 0.93 10.79 0.00 10.10 0.39 1.23 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.10 0.09 0.44 0.47 0.00 0.15 China : 82.17 122.18 0.26 134.80 2.58 67.22 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.58 0.77 Japan : 2.69 8.09 0.63 8.74 0.20 2.47 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.54 0.70 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 1.57 4.93 0.13 5.03 0.57 1.03 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 3/ : 109.71 386.98 24.20 412.93 24.80 83.77 United States : 0.83 6.37 0.50 3.68 3.26 0.76 Total foreign : 108.88 380.61 23.70 409.25 21.54 83.01 Major exporters 4/ : 17.47 130.34 0.04 114.40 17.28 16.17 India : 11.00 86.40 0.00 83.75 2.75 10.90 Pakistan : 0.05 4.90 0.00 2.70 1.78 0.47 Thailand : 2.96 17.70 0.00 9.75 9.00 1.91 Vietnam : 3.47 21.34 0.04 18.20 3.75 2.89 Major importers 5/ : 12.26 58.29 9.69 68.59 0.34 11.31 Brazil : 0.69 8.60 0.60 8.40 0.05 1.44 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.68 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.85 Indonesia : 4.34 34.25 0.80 36.55 0.00 2.84 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 1.15 Philippines : 3.81 9.00 1.29 10.25 0.00 3.85 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.89 2.28 3.20 5.32 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.10 1.66 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.15 China : 67.22 112.46 1.00 135.40 1.00 44.29 Egypt : 0.77 4.03 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.80 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.58 0.73 0.00 0.22 South Korea : 1.03 4.45 0.18 4.87 0.20 0.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-414-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 83.68 397.35 24.40 412.98 25.48 68.05 September : 83.77 397.78 24.25 412.83 25.08 68.72 United States : August : 0.79 7.04 0.46 3.82 3.40 1.08 September : 0.76 7.04 0.46 3.82 3.40 1.04 Total foreign : August : 82.89 390.31 23.94 409.17 22.09 66.97 September : 83.01 390.74 23.79 409.01 21.69 67.67 Major exporters 4/ : August : 16.17 127.40 0.04 112.90 17.25 13.46 September : 16.17 127.40 0.04 112.90 17.00 13.71 India Aug : 10.90 83.00 0.00 81.65 2.75 9.50 Sep : 10.90 83.00 0.00 81.65 2.75 9.50 Pakistan Aug : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72 Sep : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72 Thailand Aug : 1.91 17.90 0.00 9.90 8.50 1.41 Sep : 1.91 17.90 0.00 9.90 8.50 1.41 Vietnam Aug : 2.89 21.50 0.04 18.60 4.00 1.83 Sep : 2.89 21.50 0.04 18.60 3.75 2.08 Major importers 5/ : August : 11.41 58.31 9.88 68.96 0.36 10.27 September : 11.31 58.66 9.63 68.96 0.36 10.27 Brazil Aug : 1.44 8.10 0.60 8.45 0.05 1.64 Sep : 1.44 8.10 0.60 8.45 0.05 1.64 EU-25 6/ Aug : 0.85 1.73 1.00 2.53 0.25 0.80 Sep : 0.85 1.73 1.00 2.53 0.25 0.80 Indonesia Aug : 2.94 34.40 1.80 36.60 0.00 2.54 Sep : 2.84 34.75 1.50 36.60 0.00 2.49 Nigeria Aug : 1.15 2.30 1.30 4.25 0.00 0.50 Sep : 1.15 2.30 1.30 4.25 0.00 0.50 Philippines Aug : 3.85 9.20 0.90 10.30 0.00 3.65 Sep : 3.85 9.20 0.90 10.30 0.00 3.65 Sel. Mideast 7/Aug : 0.99 2.30 3.20 5.41 0.06 1.03 Sep : 0.99 2.30 3.25 5.41 0.06 1.08 Selected other : Burma Aug : 1.66 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.11 Sep : 1.66 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.11 C. Am & Car. 8/Aug : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.14 Sep : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.14 China Aug : 44.29 126.00 0.60 135.70 1.00 34.19 Sep : 44.29 126.00 0.60 135.70 1.00 34.19 Egypt Aug : 0.74 4.00 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.71 Sep : 0.80 4.23 0.00 3.33 0.70 1.00 Japan Aug : 1.70 7.80 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.70 Sep : 1.70 7.80 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.70 Mexico Aug : 0.22 0.19 0.58 0.80 0.00 0.19 Sep : 0.22 0.19 0.58 0.80 0.00 0.19 South Korea Aug : 0.59 4.70 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.65 Sep : 0.59 4.70 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.65 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-414-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World : 47.31 88.28 30.22 98.60 30.36 0.25 36.61 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.38 Total foreign : 39.86 71.07 30.16 91.33 18.46 0.08 31.22 Major exporters 4/ : 11.11 24.24 1.44 14.11 14.22 0.01 8.45 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.40 0.23 0.03 2.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.93 6.88 3/ 1.82 5.34 0.00 1.65 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 4.12 3/ 0.21 3.81 0.05 1.54 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.90 2.72 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.89 Australia : 2.21 1.70 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.23 Major importers : 26.75 43.78 23.84 70.55 3.17 0.06 20.58 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.60 0.49 -0.10 2.88 India : 5.13 10.60 1.22 13.30 0.06 0.00 3.59 Mexico : 0.72 0.21 2.30 2.10 0.07 0.03 1.03 China : 12.61 22.60 3.13 29.90 0.75 0.00 7.68 EU-25 8/ : 1.74 2.15 3.92 4.83 1.44 0.06 1.49 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.18 2.26 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.29 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.46 0.16 8.79 8.87 0.06 0.08 2.40 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.23 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.40 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.94 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World : 36.61 94.33 34.24 98.85 32.97 -0.07 33.42 United States : 5.38 18.26 0.05 6.49 13.80 -0.10 3.50 Total foreign : 31.22 76.08 34.19 92.36 19.17 0.03 29.92 Major exporters 4/ : 8.45 24.45 2.78 14.42 13.95 -0.04 7.35 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.65 6.74 0.01 1.87 4.99 0.00 1.54 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.43 3/ 0.20 4.49 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis. 7/ : 1.89 3.08 0.55 1.14 2.98 -0.08 1.48 Australia : 1.23 1.50 3/ 0.08 2.16 -0.10 0.59 Major importers : 20.58 48.42 26.76 71.26 3.89 0.06 20.54 Brazil : 2.88 5.80 0.55 3.75 0.96 -0.10 4.61 India : 3.59 13.75 0.90 13.45 0.55 0.00 4.24 Mexico : 1.03 0.36 1.82 2.00 0.13 0.03 1.06 China : 7.68 22.30 8.83 32.40 0.17 0.00 6.24 EU-25 8/ : 1.49 1.96 3.12 3.90 1.64 0.06 0.96 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.29 4.10 2.35 6.00 0.36 0.00 1.38 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.40 0.15 7.72 8.26 0.08 0.08 1.86 Indonesia : 0.40 0.04 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.60 0.06 1.70 1.95 0.01 0.03 0.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-414-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World : August : 33.01 106.59 31.60 100.66 31.30 0.02 39.22 September : 33.42 107.25 31.78 100.85 31.52 0.04 40.03 United States : August : 3.60 20.18 0.04 5.90 12.00 0.02 5.90 September : 3.50 20.90 0.04 6.10 12.20 0.04 6.10 Total foreign : August : 29.41 86.41 31.56 94.76 19.30 -0.01 33.32 September : 29.92 86.35 31.74 94.75 19.32 0.01 33.93 Major exporters 4/ : August : 7.26 27.52 2.68 14.76 13.79 -0.05 8.95 September : 7.35 27.68 2.69 14.75 13.81 -0.05 9.21 Pakistan Aug : 2.03 8.75 1.72 9.90 0.20 0.03 2.38 Sep : 2.03 8.75 1.72 9.90 0.20 0.03 2.38 Central Asia 5/Aug : 1.44 7.40 3/ 1.95 5.12 0.00 1.76 Sep : 1.54 7.64 3/ 1.95 5.32 0.00 1.91 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Aug : 1.28 4.47 3/ 0.20 4.18 0.00 1.37 Sep : 1.28 4.47 3/ 0.20 4.18 0.00 1.37 S. Hemis 7/ Aug : 1.48 3.97 0.40 1.10 2.70 -0.09 2.14 Sep : 1.48 3.83 0.42 1.08 2.50 -0.09 2.22 Australia Aug : 0.61 2.30 3/ 0.07 1.80 -0.10 1.14 Sep : 0.59 2.20 3/ 0.07 1.60 -0.10 1.23 Major importers Aug : 20.12 55.71 24.27 73.46 4.38 0.04 22.22 Sep : 20.54 55.46 24.42 73.46 4.38 0.04 22.54 Brazil Aug : 4.66 6.00 0.50 3.90 2.30 -0.10 5.06 Sep : 4.61 6.00 0.50 3.90 2.20 -0.10 5.11 India Aug : 3.94 12.75 1.20 13.75 0.10 0.00 4.04 Sep : 4.24 13.00 1.00 13.75 0.20 0.00 4.29 Mexico Aug : 1.06 0.55 1.52 1.90 0.30 0.03 0.91 Sep : 1.06 0.55 1.50 1.90 0.30 0.03 0.89 China Aug : 6.21 30.00 6.00 34.50 0.20 0.00 7.51 Sep : 6.24 29.50 6.35 34.50 0.20 0.00 7.39 EU-25 8/ Aug : 1.01 2.00 2.89 3.59 1.20 0.06 1.06 Sep : 0.96 2.00 2.92 3.59 1.20 0.06 1.03 Russia Aug : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Sep : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Aug : 1.19 4.25 2.17 6.10 0.23 0.00 1.28 Sep : 1.38 4.25 2.17 6.10 0.23 0.00 1.47 Sel. Asia 9/ Aug : 1.86 0.16 8.50 8.28 0.06 0.05 2.13 Sep : 1.86 0.16 8.50 8.28 0.06 0.05 2.13 Indonesia Aug : 0.37 0.04 2.30 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.44 Sep : 0.37 0.04 2.30 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand Aug : 0.38 0.06 2.15 2.05 0.01 0.00 0.53 Sep : 0.38 0.06 2.15 2.05 0.01 0.00 0.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-414-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 32.71 196.81 62.71 164.85 190.42 61.66 40.16 United States : 5.66 75.01 0.13 43.97 47.52 28.42 4.85 Total foreign : 27.05 121.80 62.58 120.88 142.90 33.24 35.30 Major exporters 3/ : 21.86 92.00 1.70 51.90 55.92 31.65 27.99 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.38 23.53 24.86 8.71 12.47 Brazil : 11.60 52.00 1.32 27.17 29.76 19.73 15.42 Major importers 4/ : 4.30 18.79 51.30 53.54 67.63 0.32 6.44 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.54 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-25 : 1.08 0.89 16.82 16.26 17.84 0.03 0.93 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.71 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 40.16 188.52 54.71 165.43 190.57 55.46 37.36 United States : 4.85 65.80 0.17 41.78 43.86 24.09 2.87 Total foreign : 35.30 122.72 54.54 123.66 146.71 31.38 34.49 Major exporters 3/ : 27.99 90.60 0.87 56.30 60.91 29.16 29.39 Argentina : 12.47 34.00 0.37 25.02 26.60 7.00 13.24 Brazil : 15.42 52.60 0.50 29.93 32.85 19.70 15.98 Major importers 4/ : 6.44 17.53 44.39 49.84 64.07 0.37 3.92 China : 4.47 15.40 16.90 25.43 34.37 0.30 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.73 15.29 14.62 16.08 0.03 0.84 Japan : 0.71 0.23 4.90 3.85 5.19 0.00 0.65 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 4.00 4.10 4.13 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 36.19 222.84 64.48 179.71 208.51 64.81 50.20 September : 37.36 222.99 63.50 179.83 208.72 63.58 51.54 United States : August : 2.87 78.29 0.16 44.23 48.11 28.03 5.18 September : 2.87 77.18 0.16 43.95 47.84 27.22 5.16 Total foreign : August : 33.32 144.55 64.32 135.48 160.40 36.78 45.02 September : 34.49 145.80 63.33 135.88 160.88 36.37 46.38 Major exporters 3/ : August : 28.49 110.00 1.05 62.28 67.37 34.29 37.89 September : 29.39 110.00 0.95 62.48 67.57 33.89 38.89 Argentina Aug : 12.46 39.00 0.35 26.00 27.57 8.27 15.97 Sep : 13.24 39.00 0.35 26.20 27.77 7.97 16.85 Brazil Aug : 15.85 66.00 0.70 34.66 38.02 23.07 21.47 Sep : 15.98 66.00 0.60 34.66 38.02 22.97 21.59 Major importers 4/ : August : 3.92 19.84 52.58 54.76 70.01 0.26 6.08 September : 3.92 19.84 52.01 54.12 69.44 0.26 6.07 China Aug : 2.10 17.50 23.00 28.30 38.20 0.20 4.20 Sep : 2.10 17.50 22.50 27.80 37.70 0.20 4.20 EU-25 Aug : 0.84 0.84 16.16 15.50 16.96 0.03 0.85 Sep : 0.84 0.84 16.16 15.50 16.96 0.03 0.85 Japan Aug : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.89 5.26 0.00 0.67 Sep : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.89 5.26 0.00 0.67 Mexico Aug : 0.04 0.11 4.60 4.68 4.71 0.00 0.04 Sep : 0.04 0.11 4.60 4.68 4.71 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-414-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 4.15 130.12 43.68 132.02 42.16 3.77 United States : 0.22 34.67 0.15 29.37 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.93 95.45 43.53 102.65 36.69 3.57 Major exporters 3/ : 1.09 42.77 0.32 9.86 33.44 0.89 Argentina : 0.30 18.59 0.00 0.23 18.46 0.20 Brazil : 0.75 21.46 0.32 8.13 13.75 0.64 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.50 1.23 0.05 Major importers 4/ : 1.38 35.93 26.64 61.63 1.14 1.19 EU-25 : 1.05 12.88 21.64 34.36 0.35 0.87 China : 0.00 21.00 0.00 20.21 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.77 131.42 46.26 132.42 45.24 3.79 United States : 0.20 33.07 0.23 29.35 3.95 0.20 Total foreign : 3.57 98.35 46.03 103.07 41.30 3.59 Major exporters 3/ : 0.89 48.09 0.28 10.14 38.10 1.01 Argentina : 0.20 19.85 0.00 0.24 19.71 0.10 Brazil : 0.64 23.64 0.28 8.75 14.94 0.87 India : 0.05 4.60 0.00 1.16 3.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 33.54 27.94 60.60 0.95 1.13 EU-25 : 0.87 11.62 23.60 34.94 0.30 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.05 19.61 0.63 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 3.77 142.44 47.97 141.55 48.16 4.47 September : 3.79 142.52 48.21 141.67 48.39 4.46 United States : August : 0.16 35.12 0.15 30.48 4.72 0.23 September : 0.20 34.85 0.15 30.48 4.49 0.23 Total foreign : August : 3.61 107.33 47.82 111.07 43.44 4.24 September : 3.59 107.68 48.06 111.19 43.90 4.23 Major exporters 3/ : August : 1.01 51.94 0.15 11.66 39.85 1.59 September : 1.01 52.87 0.15 12.14 40.31 1.58 Argentina Aug : 0.10 20.69 0.00 0.24 20.15 0.40 Sep : 0.10 20.75 0.00 0.24 20.21 0.40 Brazil Aug : 0.87 27.37 0.15 9.65 17.60 1.14 Sep : 0.87 27.37 0.15 9.65 17.60 1.14 India Aug : 0.04 3.88 0.00 1.77 2.10 0.05 Sep : 0.04 4.75 0.00 2.25 2.50 0.04 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.13 36.89 29.15 64.97 1.13 1.07 September : 1.13 36.39 29.15 64.47 1.13 1.07 EU-25 Aug : 0.85 12.32 24.50 36.60 0.31 0.77 Sep : 0.85 12.32 24.50 36.60 0.31 0.77 China Aug : 0.00 22.60 0.00 21.80 0.80 0.00 Sep : 0.00 22.10 0.00 21.30 0.80 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-414-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 2.54 30.39 8.68 30.62 9.17 1.82 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.47 22.02 8.66 22.87 8.14 1.14 Major exporters 3/ : 0.54 12.47 0.12 5.43 7.31 0.38 Argentina : 0.13 4.38 0.00 0.12 4.34 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.19 0.07 3.07 2.27 0.10 EU-25 : 0.24 2.89 0.05 2.24 0.71 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.38 3.13 8.51 0.02 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.71 6.39 0.01 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.26 1.95 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.02 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.82 30.42 8.82 30.45 9.03 1.59 United States : 0.68 7.76 0.13 7.64 0.41 0.51 Total foreign : 1.14 22.66 8.70 22.80 8.62 1.07 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 12.94 0.09 5.28 7.79 0.35 Argentina : 0.05 4.61 0.00 0.11 4.51 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.71 0.07 3.13 2.66 0.09 EU-25 : 0.23 2.62 0.02 2.04 0.61 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.61 3.45 8.96 0.03 0.46 China : 0.25 4.54 2.70 7.15 0.01 0.33 India : 0.13 1.06 0.65 1.70 0.02 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.10 0.11 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 1.58 33.03 9.84 32.78 10.02 1.65 September : 1.59 33.05 9.67 32.72 10.00 1.59 United States : August : 0.48 8.29 0.05 7.80 0.48 0.54 September : 0.51 8.21 0.05 7.80 0.45 0.51 Total foreign : August : 1.10 24.74 9.79 24.98 9.54 1.11 September : 1.07 24.85 9.62 24.91 9.54 1.08 Major exporters 3/ : August : 0.35 14.25 0.10 5.67 8.63 0.41 September : 0.35 14.25 0.10 5.67 8.63 0.41 Argentina Aug : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Sep : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Brazil Aug : 0.09 6.62 0.05 3.35 3.31 0.10 Sep : 0.09 6.62 0.05 3.35 3.31 0.10 EU-25 Aug : 0.22 2.80 0.05 2.20 0.69 0.18 Sep : 0.22 2.80 0.05 2.20 0.69 0.18 Major importers 4/ : August : 0.49 5.94 3.70 9.68 0.03 0.42 September : 0.46 6.07 3.51 9.61 0.03 0.40 China Aug : 0.35 5.04 2.40 7.51 0.02 0.27 Sep : 0.33 4.97 2.40 7.44 0.02 0.24 India Aug : 0.13 0.90 1.15 2.02 0.01 0.15 Sep : 0.13 1.10 1.00 2.06 0.01 0.15 Pakistan Aug : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.01 Sep : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-414-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2003 : III : 7081 4807 11980 8448 1409 9984 21964 1823 41.7 IV : 5973 5499 11575 8240 1423 9780 21355 1858 41.5 Annual : 26238 19945 46574 32749 5650 38902 85476 7273 170.3 : 2004 : I : 5834 5130 11061 8208 1302 9626 20687 1816 42.7 II : 6254 4897 11238 8491 1365 9982 21220 1843 43.7 III*: 6360 4965 11411 8800 1350 10275 21686 1860 42.0 IV*: 6000 5475 11571 8575 1375 10065 21636 1880 42.1 Annual : Aug Proj : 24763 20467 45596 34023 5393 39897 85493 7404 170.1 Sep Proj : 24448 20467 45281 34074 5393 39948 85229 7399 170.5 : 2005 : I*: 5725 5085 10904 8400 1315 9830 20734 1845 43.4 II*: 6275 4925 11293 8825 1410 10360 21653 1865 44.6 Annual : Aug Proj : 24350 20485 45206 35125 5575 41190 86396 7495 172.6 Sep Proj : 24350 20485 45206 35125 5575 41190 86396 7495 172.8 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2003 : III : 83.07 42.90 63.4 59.1 89.9 13.30 IV : 99.38 36.89 64.6 67.4 110.7 14.40 Annual : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 87.9 12.52 : 2004 : I : 82.16 44.18 73.2 62.1 114.9 14.07 II : 88.15 54.91 79.3 66.6 79.7 18.60 III*: 83-84 54-55 75-76 73-74 65-66 15.30-15.50 IV*: 85-89 44-46 73-77 74-78 73-77 15.10-15.60 Annual : Aug Proj : 85-87 49-50 76-77 67-68 89-91 15.65-15.85 Sep Proj : 84-86 49-50 75-76 69-70 83-84 15.75-15.95 : 2005 : I*: 82-88 47-51 70-76 60-66 72-78 13.05-13.85 II*: 84-90 48-52 71-77 63-69 67-73 12.10-13.10 Annual : Aug Proj : 83-89 45-49 71-77 64-69 80-87 12.90-13.90 Sep Proj : 83-89 45-49 71-77 66-71 72-78 12.95-13.95 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-414-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2003 : 691 26339 3006 30036 2519 518 26999 64.9 2004 Proj. Aug : 518 24864 3433 28815 441 525 27849 66.3 Sep : 518 24549 3512 28579 446 575 27558 65.6 2005 Proj. Aug : 525 24451 3420 28396 600 550 27246 64.2 Sep : 575 24451 3520 28546 600 550 27396 64.6 : PORK : 2003 : 533 19966 1185 21684 1717 532 19435 51.8 2004 Proj. Aug : 532 20488 1130 22150 2073 420 19657 51.9 Sep : 532 20488 1115 22135 2069 420 19646 51.8 2005 Proj. Aug : 420 20506 1090 22016 2085 460 19471 50.9 Sep : 420 20506 1115 22041 2115 460 19466 50.9 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2003 : 1238 46710 4359 52307 4243 1059 47005 118.4 2004 Proj. Aug : 1059 45732 4749 51540 2520 953 48067 119.8 Sep : 1059 45417 4824 51300 2521 1004 47775 119.1 2005 Proj. Aug : 953 45342 4701 50996 2689 1018 47289 116.8 Sep : 1004 45342 4834 51180 2719 1019 47442 117.2 : BROILERS : 2003 : 763 32399 12 33173 4920 608 27645 81.6 2004 Proj. Aug : 608 33659 22 34289 4299 675 29316 85.6 Sep : 608 33709 24 34341 4182 675 29485 86.1 2005 Proj. Aug : 675 34749 12 35436 4800 625 30011 86.8 Sep : 675 34749 12 35436 4600 625 30211 87.4 : TURKEYS : 2003 : 333 5576 2 5911 484 354 5074 17.4 2004 Proj. Aug : 354 5322 2 5678 378 300 4999 17.0 Sep : 354 5322 4 5680 401 300 4979 16.9 2005 Proj. Aug : 300 5502 1 5803 455 300 5047 17.0 Sep : 300 5502 4 5806 455 300 5051 17.0 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2003 : 1101 38477 16 39595 5500 966 33129 100.4 2004 Proj. Aug : 966 39462 28 40455 4833 979 34642 103.8 Sep : 966 39512 31 40509 4806 979 34724 104.0 2005 Proj. Aug : 979 40741 17 41737 5335 929 35472 105.2 Sep : 979 40741 20 41740 5215 929 35596 105.6 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2003 : 2339 85187 4375 91902 9743 2025 80134 218.9 2004 Proj. Aug : 2025 85194 4777 91995 7353 1932 82709 223.6 Sep : 2025 84929 4855 91809 7327 1983 82499 223.1 2005 Proj. Aug : 1932 86083 4718 92733 8024 1947 82761 222.0 Sep : 1983 86083 4854 92920 7934 1948 83038 222.7 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-414-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2004 Projected : 2005 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2002 : 2003 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.4 10.3 13.7 13.7 15.0 15.0 Production : 7268.0 7273.0 7404.0 7399.0 7495.0 7495.0 Imports : 15.0 13.3 13.0 13.1 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7293.4 7296.6 7430.7 7425.8 7522.0 7522.0 : Use : Exports : 174.0 146.2 117.2 131.3 140.0 140.0 Hatching use : 961.3 959.4 989.9 989.9 1030.0 1030.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 13.7 15.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6147.8 6177.3 6308.6 6289.6 6338.0 6338.0 Per capita (number) : 255.9 254.7 257.5 256.7 256.2 256.2 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Proj 1/: 2004/05 Proj 1/ Commodity :2001/02:2002/03:-----------------:------------------ : 1/ : 1/ : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 9.0 9.3 Production : 169.3 170.4 169.7 169.9 172.3 172.6 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 168.2 169.3 168.6 168.8 171.3 171.6 Imports 2/ : 5.2 5.0 5.8 5.7 5.1 5.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 182.1 185.5 185.4 185.5 185.4 186.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 170.6 173.3 176.4 176.3 177.1 177.5 Ending commercial stks. 2: 11.2 11.0 9.0 9.3 8.2 8.4 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 9.6 8.8 2.7 2.3 4.0 4.1 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 11.03 10.63 14.90- 14.85- 11.65- 11.90- : 15.00 14.95 12.55 12.70 : Class IV : 11.22 10.05 12.25- 12.35- 11.00- 11.15- : 12.45 12.55 12.10 12.15 : All milk 5/ : 12.74 11.91 15.60- 15.55- 13.00- 13.25- : 15.70 15.65 13.90 14.05 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4: Butter : 0 29 -6 -6 0 0 Cheese : 9 47 7 7 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 817 719 225 190 340 350 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-414-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 23-year record of the differences between the September projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the September projection and the final estimate have averaged 9.6 million tons (1.8%) ranging from -30.7 to 13.1 million tons. The September projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 10 times. Reliability of September Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.8 9.6 -30.7 13.1 13 10 U.S. : 1.3 0.8 -1.4 2.5 8 15 Foreign : 2.0 9.4 -30.9 12.0 14 9 Exports : World : 4.2 4.8 -13.5 6.2 16 7 U.S. : 8.9 2.9 -10.0 7.2 8 15 Foreign : 5.2 4.3 -11.5 4.0 16 7 Domestic use : World : 1.5 7.7 -23.4 13.2 14 9 U.S. : 5.9 1.8 -3.7 3.6 11 12 Foreign : 1.4 7.1 -21.0 12.3 16 7 Ending stocks : World : 7.6 9.9 -28.3 14.3 17 6 U.S. : 14.1 3.2 -9.1 12.4 12 11 Foreign : 8.2 8.7 -26.0 7.4 16 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.6 13.5 -39.4 24.9 17 6 U.S. : 3.5 7.9 -21.5 26.0 16 7 Foreign : 1.7 10.0 -23.3 13.9 15 8 Exports : World : 5.4 5.6 -11.5 16.5 16 7 U.S. : 14.2 7.6 -19.0 14.5 10 13 Foreign : 12.6 6.5 -15.3 12.7 13 10 Domestic use : World : 1.2 10.1 -29.1 20.8 10 13 U.S. : 3.4 6.2 -15.8 13.2 16 7 Foreign : 1.4 8.7 -20.2 22.0 14 9 Ending stocks : World : 11.0 15.3 -43.2 24.6 17 6 U.S. : 18.5 9.2 -32.2 13.5 11 12 Foreign : 13.0 10.3 -25.8 15.2 19 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.0 6.8 -24.1 3.6 18 5 U.S. : 4.2 0.2 -0.5 0.5 13 9 Foreign : 2.0 6.8 -24.4 3.7 18 5 Exports : World : 8.4 1.6 -6.7 0.8 14 9 U.S. : 8.4 0.2 -0.9 0.9 12 9 Foreign : 9.5 1.6 -6.7 1.0 15 8 Domestic use : World : 1.5 5.0 -22.7 3.0 19 4 U.S. : 5.8 0.2 -0.4 0.4 11 11 Foreign : 1.5 5.1 -23.1 3.2 19 4 Ending stocks : World : 11.1 4.4 -13.0 5.2 18 5 U.S. : 18.1 0.2 -0.9 0.7 12 11 Foreign : 11.9 4.5 -13.2 6.1 18 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-414-33 Reliability of September Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.5 4.6 -11.8 12.0 15 8 U.S. : 4.6 2.8 -5.5 6.1 11 12 Foreign : 6.0 4.2 -10.7 5.8 13 10 Exports : World : 6.5 2.4 -9.4 8.3 16 7 U.S. : 9.5 2.0 -5.3 5.5 13 10 Foreign : 17.0 2.2 -9.4 7.0 9 14 Domestic use : World : 3.2 4.2 -9.3 10.0 15 8 U.S. : 3.8 1.5 -3.8 2.9 15 8 Foreign : 4.0 3.6 -7.5 7.1 16 7 Ending stocks : World : 14.6 3.0 -12.2 6.8 14 9 U.S. : 29.7 2.1 -3.5 4.8 6 17 Foreign : 18.6 2.8 -12.0 3.2 15 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.0 2.5 -10.9 9.5 14 9 U.S. : 4.7 0.7 -1.9 2.4 12 10 Foreign : 3.6 2.5 -11.2 9.8 13 10 Exports : World : 4.6 1.1 -3.3 2.2 13 10 U.S. : 14.7 0.9 -2.1 2.0 13 10 Foreign : 5.9 1.1 -3.3 1.9 10 13 Mill use : World : 2.3 2.0 -6.6 3.2 9 14 U.S. : 6.1 0.5 -1.1 1.3 11 10 Foreign : 2.4 1.8 -5.9 4.0 11 11 Ending stocks : World : 11.6 4.1 -12.7 12.5 15 8 U.S. : 28.8 1.2 -2.3 2.5 9 14 Foreign : 11.9 3.7 -13.2 10.9 15 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 23 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-414-34 Reliability of United States September Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 3.8 293 -846 885 16 7 Exports : 15.0 273 -725 521 9 14 Domestic use : 3.9 240 -553 430 16 7 Ending stocks : 21.7 337 -1321 490 11 12 : SORGHUM : Production : 4.6 29 -69 81 11 11 Exports : 16.2 39 -115 97 13 10 Domestic use : 9.0 38 -114 78 11 12 Ending stocks : 37.2 46 -155 112 9 14 : BARLEY : Production : 3.1 12 -29 36 9 14 Exports : 30.6 18 -82 38 11 10 Domestic use : 8.0 28 -47 72 10 11 Ending stocks : 13.7 23 -61 70 10 13 : OATS : Production : 6.7 14 -19 44 4 18 Exports : 70.0 2 -5 8 7 9 Domestic use : 4.5 15 -39 30 8 15 Ending stocks : 14.0 17 -40 47 12 11 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.6 1122 -2846 1680 14 9 Exports : 10.9 709 -1750 1900 9 14 Domestic use : 3.0 703 -1550 1075 15 8 Ending stocks : 33.3 77 -179 368 9 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.4 493 -1473 791 12 11 Exports : 24.0 372 -1250 1219 10 12 Domestic use : 2.5 327 -985 450 16 7 Ending stocks : 26.7 402 -975 1143 9 14 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 4.1 1024 -566 2486 15 6 Pork : 2.2 364 -1315 1242 11 10 Broilers : 1.9 457 -1337 640 14 7 Turkeys : 2.0 85 -444 235 15 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 83 -111 188 14 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.9 -7.1 4.6 11 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 23 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2003 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2002/03 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ------------ End of File ----------------