WASDE-398 May 12, 2003 Note: This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for the 2003/04 season. Also presented are the first projections of U.S. livestock product supply, use, and prices for the new year (2004 for animal products and 2003/04 for milk). Projections are based on economic analysis, normal weather, trends, and judgment. Because planting of spring crops is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from weather developments, economic factors, and policy changes. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. WHEAT: The 2003/04 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a dramatic rebound in production, but also for expanding use that will limit stock gains. Total production is projected up 31 percent from 2002/03 to 2,113 million bushels due to gains in both area and yields. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is 37 percent above a year earlier because of higher seedings, reduced abandonment, and higher yields. Also, the assumed 5-year average harvested-to-planted ratios and yields result in higher spring wheat (including durum) production, despite the lower planting intentions reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. The larger total wheat crop is partially offset by reduced beginning stocks, but supplies are still up around 8 percent from 2002/03. Projected U.S. 2003/04 use is around 6 percent above a year earlier because of larger domestic use and exports. Domestic use is up 46 million bushels as relatively strong old-crop corn prices are expected to promote increased wheat feeding this summer. Projected exports of 950 million bushels are 75 million above 2002/03 because smaller exportable supplies are expected in most of the minor exporters, especially Russia and Ukraine. U.S. ending stocks are projected up 63 million bushels from a year earlier, but, at 511 million bushels, will remain relatively low. The projected price range for 2003/04 is $3.05 to $3.65 per bushel, compared with an estimated $3.56 for 2002/03. The 2003/04 global wheat outlook is dominated by an expected dramatic downturn in production and export prospects for most of the minor exporters. Global stocks are expected to continue to drop, setting the stage for a rise in prices if an expected rebound in production in the major exporters does not materialize. Global wheat production is up 5 million tons from a year earlier. The combined crops of the United States and the other major exporters are expected to gain 38 million tons (21 percent), with production up in Argentina, Australia, and Canada, but down in the EU. However, major exporter gains will largely be offset by lower projected production in the countries of the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, India, and China. Global 2003/04 imports are projected to decline from a year earlier, largely due to smaller EU imports and sharply higher production in North Africa. Smaller feed wheat supplies also will result in reduced imports by several Asian countries. Combined exports for Russia, Ukraine, India, and Eastern Europe are projected down nearly 21 million tons (almost 75 percent) from 2002/03. This drop is offset by reduced global imports and higher exports by the United States and the major foreign exporters. Global 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are expected to be down significantly, led by reductions for China, Russia, Ukraine, and India. Expanding exports will limit the stock gains in the United States and the major foreign exporters. COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for U.S. 2003/04 feed grain production is for a rebound from last year's drought-reduced crops, expanding domestic use and exports, higher ending stocks, and lower prices. The U.S. 2003/04 corn crop is projected at 10,060 million bushels, up almost 12 percent from last year, based on March Prospective Plantings, harvested-to-planted relationships for 1999-2001, and trend yields. While the larger corn crop is partially offset by smaller forecast carryin stocks, total 2003/04 corn supplies are up around 5 percent. Larger supplies are also projected for sorghum, barley, and oats. Total use of corn in 2003/04 is expected to expand due to gains in domestic use and exports. Domestic use is expected to rise slightly as expanding industrial use more than offsets reduced feed and residual use because of a decline in cattle on feed. U.S. corn exports are projected up 225 million bushels because of less competition from foreign corn exporters and reduced global feed wheat supplies. With production exceeding use, 2003/04 ending stocks of corn are projected up almost 250 million bushels from the forecast carryin level. The projected price range for corn is $1.90 to $2.30 for 2003/04, compared with $2.25 to $2.35 for 2002/03. Larger stocks and declining prices are also expected for the other feed grains. The global outlook for 2003/04 is for sharply higher production, but for use to exceed production and coarse grain stocks to decline again. Larger coarse grain crops are expected in the United States, Canada, Australia, India, and several other countries. Lower crops in China and the countries of the former Soviet Union will be partially offsetting. U.S. corn exports are expected to expand significantly because of tightening corn supplies and higher prices in China and the replacement of feed wheat with increased corn imports by several Asian countries. However, sharply larger coarse grain crops in Canada will reduce U.S. corn export prospects to Canada. Reduced production and smaller, but still large, exports are expected to cause a further reduction in China's corn stocks. Smaller crops are also expected to result in a sharp drawdown in coarse grain stocks in the countries of the former Soviet Union. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2003/04 is projected at 199 million cwt, down nearly 12 million cwt from 2002/03. Planted area is estimated at 3.038 million acres, based on the NASS Prospective Plantings report, down 202,000 acres from 2002/03 and the smallest area since 1993/94. Harvested area is estimated at 3.015 million acres. Rice yield is projected at a record 6,600 pounds per acre, up 22 pounds per acre from 2002/03. The higher yield reflects the adoption of higher yielding long-grain rice varieties. Long-grain rice production is projected at 143 million cwt, down 14 million cwt from 2002/03, while combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at 56 million cwt, 2.3 million cwt above 2002/03 and the largest crop since 2000/01. Domestic and residual use is projected at a record 126.1 million cwt, 2.3 million cwt above 2002/03. Exports are projected at 86 million cwt, down 31 million cwt from the revised 2002/03 forecast. Rough rice exports are projected at 33 million cwt, 15 million cwt below this month's revised record 2002/03 level. Exports of milled and brown rice are projected at 53 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), 16 million cwt below 2002/03. Ending stocks are projected at 22.1 million cwt, down fractionally from the revised 2002/03 forecast and the lowest stocks since 1998/99. Ending stocks of long-grain rice for 2003/04 are projected at 14.1 million cwt while combined medium- and short-grain stocks are projected at 6.5 million cwt. U.S. rice prices are expected to strengthen because of tighter domestic supplies. The projected season-average price range for 2003/04 is $5.00 to $5.50 per cwt compared to a revised $4.10 to $4.20 per cwt for 2002/03. Global 2003/04 rice production is projected at 393.7 million tons assuming normal global weather, up significantly from 2002/03. World consumption is projected at a near-record level of 410 million tons. Global exports are expected to decline slightly from the levels of 2001/02 and 2002/03. Global ending stocks are projected at 91.9 million tons, 16.3 million tons below the revised 2002/03 forecast, the third consecutive year of declining stocks, and the smallest stocks since 1984/85. The global stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 22.4 percent, down from 26.5 percent in 2002/03, and the lowest since 1982/83. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2003/04 is projected at 87.4 million tons, up nearly 5 percent from 2002/03. Soybean production will account for most of the increase, rising 125 million bushels to a projected 2,855 million bushels, or 77.7 million tons. Soybean production is based on prospective plantings reported in March and on trend yields. Other U.S. oilseed production is expected to increase by 0.5 million tons led by a projected increase for sunflowerseed. The larger soybean crop is partly offset by the smallest carryin stocks since 1997, leaving supplies up only 2 percent. Soybean crush is projected almost unchanged from 2002/03 based on limited growth prospects for soybean meal demand. Combined pork and poultry production is expected to show little growth, limiting expansion of domestic soybean meal demand. With strong competition limiting prospects for U.S. exports, soybean meal demand is projected up only 1-2 percent. U.S. soybean exports are projected to decline significantly because of increased competition from foreign exporters. Lower use combined with a small increase in soybean supplies will result in higher ending stocks for the first time since 1998/99. Global oilseed production for 2003/04 is projected to rebound sharply to 344 million tons, up about 5 percent from 2002/03. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the increase, reflecting recovery from weather-related low yields in several countries last year, especially for rapeseed, and continued expansion in South American soybean production. Global production for 2002/03 is reduced slightly this month primarily due to small adjustments in peanut and cottonseed production. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2003/04 is projected at $4.45 to $5.45 per bushel, compared with a forecast $5.50 per bushel in 2002/03. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $150 to $180 per short ton, compared with $175 per ton estimated for 2002/03. Soybean oil prices are projected at 18 to 21 cents per pound, compared with 22 cents for 2002/03. U.S. soybean crush for 2002/03 is reduced 5 million bushels as lower domestic soybean meal use more than offsets a small increase in projected soybean meal exports. Soybean exports are increased 15 million bushels, leaving forecast ending stocks at 135 million bushels, which would be the lowest since 1996/97. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2003/04 is 11.8 million short tons, raw value. Production of 8.6 million tons is up 200,000 tons from 2002/03. Beet sugar production is projected at 4.45 million tons, based on prospective harvested area and trend sugar-per-acre yields. Cane sugar production is projected at 4.145 million tons based on projected area and yields. Imports under the sugar Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) are projected at 1.221 million short tons. This reflects the U.S. commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus a projected shortfall of 35,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. Projected 2003/04 imports under the other programs, mainly for re-export, are 325,000 tons and other non-program imports are 60,000 tons. Projected use totals 10.2 million tons, comprising 9.85 million tons delivered for domestic food and beverage use, 200,000 tons for other domestic deliveries, and 150,000 tons of sugar exports. Expected year-ending stocks are 1.6 million tons, 15.7 percent of total use. For 2002/03, beet sugar production is estimated at 4.45 million tons, the result of the Farm Service Agency's April survey of sugarbeet processors' fiscal-year production plans. Cane sugar production is decreased slightly this month, reflecting Florida's end-of-season industry reports. Imports are increased 60,000 tons, due to higher re-export imports and lower TRQ shortfall. Sugar exports are increased 30,000 tons based on revised company reporting. Estimated year-ending stocks are 1.6 million tons and the stocks-to-use ratio is 16.4 percent, up from 13.7 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production in 2004 is projected to decline fractionally from 2003 as lower red meat production offsets increased poultry production. Beef production began declining in the first quarter of 2003 and contraction is expected through 2004 as cattle inventories decline and heifers are retained for breeding. Pork production is projected lower as modest gains in 2003 and 2004 prices are expected to delay producers' expansion plans until mid-2004. Broiler and turkey production are projected to expand modestly in 2004. Egg production is projected higher in 2004 as stronger egg prices in 2003 and higher breaking use encourage a modest production expansion. Forecast 2003 total meat production is raised from April, reflecting slight increases for red meat and poultry. Lighter- than-expected cattle weights lead to a reduction in the second- quarter beef production forecast. Feedlot placements are expected to be large, which leads to an increase in this month's forecast for the second half of the year. The second-quarter pork production forecast is increased. Poultry production forecasts are little changed. Meat trade in 2004 is forecast to be higher as both imports and exports rise. Lower cow slaughter will encourage increased imports of beef while improved prospects in foreign markets are expected to lead to a recovery in exports. Increases in red meat exports will depend on economic growth in major markets. Poultry exports are expected to increase from 2003 but potential constraints on exports to Russia may limit growth. Cattle prices in 2004 are projected to increase from 2003 forecast levels as cattle inventories and beef supplies will be smaller. Likewise, hog prices are expected to average above 2003 as pork production declines. Despite increased production in 2004, expected broiler and turkey prices are about unchanged and slightly higher, respectively, as lower supplies of red meat help support markets. Forecast 2003 prices for livestock and poultry are little changed from last month. Dairy production in 2003/04 is projected to increase about 1 percent as higher output per cow more than offsets a reduction in cow numbers. Although relatively weak, milk/feed price ratios are expected to improve over 2002/03 levels, which may support gains in production. Product demand on a fat basis is expected to be modestly stronger in 2003/04 which will help support prices in the face of higher production. Cheese prices have shown some signs of recovery; thus Class III prices for 2002/03 are raised from last month. Improved demand for cheese and butter is expected to carry into 2003/04, with Class III prices projected at $9.70 to $10.70 per cwt and Class IV prices up slightly to $9.50 to $10.70 per cwt. All milk prices in 2003/04 are projected at $11.05 to $12.05 per cwt, slightly above 2002/03. COTTON: The first U.S. projections for 2003/04 include stable production, declining domestic mill use, and record exports, resulting in sharply lower ending stocks. Production is projected at 17.2 million bales, virtually unchanged from the 2002/03 season, based on the area in the Prospective Plantings report, combined with historical average abandonment and yields. Domestic mill use is projected at 7.3 million bales, a reduction of 2.7 percent from 2002/03, as rising textile imports continue to erode mills' share of the large U.S. retail market. Exports are projected up 4.5 percent to a record 11.5 million bales, due mainly to tight supplies and rising demand in foreign markets. With lower supplies and higher disappearance relative to the current season, ending stocks would fall 24 percent to 4.7 million bales, their lowest level in 4 years. The world projections for 2003/04 include sharply higher production, a modest increase in consumption, and lower ending stocks. World production is anticipated to rebound 10 percent from 2002/03, rising to 96.5 million bales, the second highest level on record. The recovery in production is due mainly to stronger cotton prices, combined with a return to normal weather. World consumption is forecast to rise 1.2 percent to 99.0 million bales, slightly below the long-run average growth rate. While economic recovery will continue to support cotton consumption, the recent higher cotton prices are likely to result in a lower fiber share vis-a-vis polyester. World trade is also expected to rise slightly. Ending stocks are forecast at 34.5 million bales, the lowest since 1994/95. The U.S. forecasts for 2002/03 reflect a marginal increase in production, lower domestic mill use, higher exports, and slightly lower ending stocks relative to last month. The changes in domestic mill use and exports are based on recent activity. Only minor revisions are made to the 2002/03 world forecasts. Despite sharp increases in recent months' yarn production, the estimate of China's domestic consumption is maintained at 28.0 million bales due the economic impact of SARS. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: ANN M. VENEMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on June 11, 2003. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: June 11, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11. Mark Your Calendar for Outlook Forum 2004 USDA will hold the 80th Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19-20, 2004, in Arlington, Virginia. Details will be announced in the fall. To receive detailed information, send your address to agforum@oce.usda.gov or write to Outlook Forum 2004, USDA/WAOB, Mail Stop 3812 South Building, Washington, D.C. 20250-3812. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. 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WASDE-398-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 1,871.72 2,407.96 238.28 1,901.67 506.29 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,806.81 2,313.10 229.73 1,906.32 406.78 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 1,872.54 2,279.32 225.82 1,918.29 361.03 Wheat : 2001/02 : 579.97 780.62 108.01 584.96 195.66 2002/03 (Est.) : 564.76 760.41 103.43 604.05 156.36 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 569.52 725.89 98.31 591.43 134.46 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 893.15 1,080.71 103.23 905.91 174.80 2002/03 (Est.) : 861.01 1,035.81 99.51 893.51 142.30 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 909.29 1,051.59 102.02 916.86 134.72 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 398.61 546.63 27.04 410.80 135.83 2002/03 (Est.) : 381.05 516.88 26.79 408.76 108.12 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 393.73 501.85 25.50 410.00 91.85 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 321.86 405.20 83.82 253.96 67.42 2002/03 (Est.) : 295.54 368.05 73.86 250.96 43.23 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 342.03 390.80 82.47 255.79 52.54 Wheat : 2001/02 : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15 2002/03 (Est.) : 43.99 67.13 23.81 31.14 12.18 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 57.52 72.14 25.86 32.39 13.90 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 261.86 317.12 54.71 217.36 45.05 2002/03 (Est.) : 245.04 292.79 46.44 215.98 30.37 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 278.29 311.33 53.92 219.47 37.95 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 6.74 8.04 2.94 3.88 1.22 2002/03 (Est.) : 6.51 8.14 3.61 3.85 0.68 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 6.23 7.33 2.69 3.94 0.69 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-398-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 1,549.86 2,002.76 154.46 1,647.71 438.87 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,511.27 1,945.05 155.87 1,655.36 363.55 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 1,530.50 1,888.52 143.35 1,662.50 308.49 Wheat : 2001/02 : 526.71 700.58 81.85 552.24 174.50 2002/03 (Est.) : 520.77 693.28 79.62 572.91 144.19 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 512.01 653.74 72.45 559.04 120.56 Coarse grains 5/ : 2001/02 : 631.29 763.59 48.52 688.55 129.75 2002/03 (Est.) : 615.96 743.02 53.07 677.53 111.93 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 631.00 740.25 48.10 697.40 96.78 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 391.87 538.59 24.09 406.92 134.62 2002/03 (Est.) : 374.54 508.74 23.18 404.92 107.43 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 387.50 494.52 22.81 406.06 91.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2001/02 : 98.35 140.79 29.04 94.50 46.48 2002/03 (Est.) : 87.91 134.39 29.96 97.80 36.70 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 96.50 133.20 30.70 99.00 34.50 : United States 2001/02 : 20.30 26.32 11.00 7.70 7.45 2002/03 (Est.) : 17.21 24.71 11.00 7.50 6.20 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 17.20 23.45 11.50 7.30 4.70 : Foreign 3/ 2001/02 : 78.05 114.47 18.04 86.81 39.03 2002/03 (Est.) : 70.70 109.68 18.96 90.30 30.50 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 79.30 109.75 19.20 91.70 29.80 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-398-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 324.34 359.90 68.29 266.10 36.51 2002/03 (Est.) : 326.25 362.76 75.04 269.34 34.03 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 344.00 378.03 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 183.98 189.24 61.27 183.67 5.45 2002/03 (Est.) : 187.55 193.00 63.42 186.69 5.65 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 92.27 100.65 37.65 92.14 7.50 2002/03 (Est.) : 92.93 100.43 39.20 93.22 6.63 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : : : United States Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 89.83 98.30 29.94 50.62 6.87 2002/03 (Est.) : 83.25 90.62 28.48 47.61 4.56 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 87.37 92.58 26.91 48.11 7.59 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 38.89 40.34 7.06 33.00 0.29 2002/03 (Est.) : 36.57 37.85 5.66 31.91 0.28 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 37.17 38.67 5.84 32.56 0.27 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 9.64 13.04 1.55 10.19 1.30 2002/03 (Est.) : 9.22 12.17 1.15 10.14 0.88 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 9.30 11.92 0.79 10.30 0.83 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 234.51 261.60 38.35 215.48 29.64 2002/03 (Est.) : 243.01 272.15 46.56 221.73 29.48 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 256.63 285.45 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 145.10 148.89 54.21 150.67 5.16 2002/03 (Est.) : 150.99 155.15 57.76 154.78 5.37 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 82.62 87.61 36.10 81.95 6.19 2002/03 (Est.) : 83.71 88.26 38.05 83.08 5.75 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-398-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 59.6 60.4 61.7 * Harvested : 48.6 45.8 52.7 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 40.2 35.3 40.1 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 876 777 448 Production : 1,957 1,616 2,113 Imports : 108 73 90 Supply, total : 2,941 2,467 2,651 Food : 926 935 930 Seed : 84 84 85 Feed and residual : 192 125 175 Domestic, total : 1,202 1,144 1,190 Exports : 961 875 950 Use, total : 2,164 2,019 2,140 Ending stocks : 777 448 511 CCC inventory : 99 65 Free stocks : 678 383 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.78 3.56 3.05- 3.65 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum :Total =============================================================================== 2002/03 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616 Supply, total 3/ : 973 612 417 319 145 2,467 Domestic use : 451 246 261 102 85 1,144 Exports : 323 260 105 155 32 875 Use, total : 774 506 366 257 117 2,019 Ending stocks May : 199 106 52 62 29 448 Apr : 199 103 52 62 29 445 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2003, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1998-2002. Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in May 12 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 2003/04 will first be published * * in the July 11 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-398-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 95.4 98.7 98.7 * Harvested : 83.6 82.8 87.2 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.13 2.96 3.19 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 52.7 45.0 30.4 Production : 261.7 244.9 278.1 Imports : 2.4 2.5 2.5 Supply, total : 316.8 292.4 311.0 Feed and residual : 158.9 151.7 152.6 Food, seed & industrial : 58.1 64.0 66.6 Domestic, total : 217.0 215.7 219.1 Exports : 54.7 46.4 53.9 Use, total : 271.7 262.1 273.0 Ending stocks, total : 45.0 30.4 37.9 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.1 Free stocks : 44.9 30.2 Outstanding loans : 5.6 6.5 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 75.8 79.1 79.0 * Harvested : 68.8 69.3 72.0 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.2 130.0 139.7 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,899 1,596 1,059 Production : 9,507 9,008 10,060 Imports : 10 15 10 Supply, total : 11,416 10,619 11,129 Feed and residual : 5,877 5,650 5,600 Food, seed & industrial : 2,054 2,285 2,375 Domestic, total : 7,931 7,935 7,975 Exports : 1,889 1,625 1,850 Use, total : 9,820 9,560 9,825 Ending stocks, total : 1,596 1,059 1,304 CCC inventory : 6 5 Free stocks : 1,590 1,054 Outstanding loans : 213 250 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.97 2.25- 2.35 1.90- 2.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * The planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 2003, Prospective Plantings. For corn: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001. Projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period. WASDE-398-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.3 9.6 9.5 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.6 7.3 8.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 50.7 67.8 * Beginning stocks : 42 61 46 Production : 515 370 553 Imports : 0 0 0 Supply, total : 556 431 599 Feed and residual : 210 160 225 Food, seed & industrial : 45 45 55 Total domestic : 255 205 280 Exports : 241 180 250 Use, total : 495 385 530 Ending stocks, total : 61 46 69 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 2.30- 2.40 1.65- 2.05 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.1 5.4 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.3 4.1 4.8 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.2 54.9 62.8 * Beginning stocks : 106 93 67 Production : 249 227 300 Imports : 24 20 30 Supply, total : 380 340 397 Feed and residual : 88 75 100 Food, seed & industrial : 172 173 173 Total domestic : 260 248 273 Exports : 27 25 25 Use, total : 287 273 298 Ending stocks, total : 93 67 99 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.22 2.73 2.15- 2.55 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.4 5.0 4.8 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.9 2.1 2.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.4 56.8 61.3 * Beginning stocks : 73 63 58 Production : 117 119 135 Imports : 96 100 95 Supply, total : 286 282 288 Feed and residual : 148 150 150 Food, seed & industrial : 72 72 73 Total domestic : 220 222 223 Exports : 3 3 2 Use, total : 223 224 225 Ending stocks, total : 63 58 63 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.59 1.81 1.15- 1.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2003, Prospective Plantings. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2002 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 31, 2003 Prospective Plantings. WASDE-398-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.33 3.24 3.04 * Harvested : 3.31 3.21 3.02 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,496 6,578 6,600 * : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 28.5 39.0 22.2 Production : 215.3 211.0 199.0 Imports : 13.2 13.0 13.0 Supply, total : 256.9 262.9 234.2 Domestic & residual 3/ : 123.9 123.8 126.1 Exports, total 4/ : 94.1 117.0 86.0 Rough : 31.7 48.0 33.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 62.4 69.0 53.0 Use, total : 218.0 240.8 212.1 Ending stocks : 39.0 22.2 22.1 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.0 68.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.25 4.10- 4.20 5.00- 5.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.70 2.51 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,213 6,260 Beginning stocks : 11.6 26.8 14.6 Production : 167.6 157.2 143.0 Supply, total 7/ : 188.3 194.0 168.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 88.0 85.5 89.0 Exports 8/ : 73.5 94.0 65.0 Use, total : 161.6 179.5 154.0 Ending stocks : 26.8 14.6 14.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.62 0.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,733 7,729 Beginning stocks : 15.6 10.7 6.1 Production : 47.7 53.7 56.0 Supply, total 7/ : 67.1 67.4 64.6 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 35.9 38.3 37.1 Exports 8/ : 20.6 23.0 21.0 Use, total : 56.4 61.3 58.1 Ending stocks : 10.7 6.1 6.5 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2003 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1998-2002. Projected yield is derived from a simple linear trend fit by type of rice over 1990-2002 period. WASDE-398-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.1 73.8 73.2 * Harvested : 73.0 72.2 71.9 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 39.6 37.8 39.7 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 248 208 135 Production : 2,891 2,730 2,855 Imports : 2 4 4 Supply, total : 3,141 2,942 2,994 Crushings : 1,700 1,615 1,620 Exports : 1,063 1,010 960 Seed : 89 87 89 Residual : 82 95 _3/ 80 Use, total : 2,933 2,807 2,749 Ending stocks : 208 135 245 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.38 5.50 4.45 - 5.45 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,525 Production : 18,898 18,410 18,255 Imports : 46 55 75 Supply, total : 21,821 20,825 19,855 Domestic : 16,942 17,200 17,400 Exports : 2,520 2,100 1,100 Use, total : 19,461 19,300 18,500 Ending stocks : 2,360 1,525 1,355 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 16.46 22.00 18.00- : 21.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 383 240 250 Production : 40,292 38,070 38,560 Imports : 143 240 240 Supply, total : 40,818 38,550 39,050 Domestic : 33,077 32,300 32,600 Exports : 7,502 6,000 6,200 Use, total : 40,578 38,300 38,800 Ending stocks : 240 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.73 175.00 150.00- : 180.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Reflects an unusually large difference between U.S. Bureau of Census data and export inspections data reported to USDA. *Planted acres are reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted to harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1978-2002 regional trend analysis. WASDE-398-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 2002/03 : 2003/04 Item : 2001/02 :====================:============ : : April May : Projection ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,272 1,281 1,601 Production 2/3/ : 7,906 8,185 8,400 8,595 Beet sugar : 3,914 4,215 4,450 4,450 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,992 3,970 3,950 4,145 Imports 2/ : 1,527 1,605 1,665 1,606 TRQ 5/ : 1,150 1,245 1,265 1,221 Other program 6/ : 296 300 340 325 Other 7/ : 81 60 60 60 Total supply : 11,613 11,062 11,346 11,802 : Exports 2/8/ : 137 125 155 150 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,085 9,800 9,790 10,050 Domestic food use : 9,897 9,600 9,600 9,850 Other 9/ : 188 200 190 200 Miscellaneous 10/ : 110 -200 -200 0 Use, total : 10,332 9,725 9,745 10,200 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,281 1,337 1,601 1,602 : Stocks to use ratio : 12.4 13.7 16.4 15.7 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2003/04 are based on analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2002/03 (projected 2003/04): FL 2,125 (2,100); HI 280 (280); LA 1,360 (1,600); TX 185 (165); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2002/03, available TRQs assume shortfall of 30,000 tons. For 2003/04, includes only the US commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus shortfall of 35,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-398-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.77 13.96 14.25 * Harvested : 13.83 12.43 12.90 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 705 665 640 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 6.00 7.45 6.20 Production : 20.30 17.21 17.20 Imports : 0.02 0.05 0.05 Supply, total : 26.32 24.71 23.45 Domestic use : 7.70 7.50 7.30 Exports : 11.00 11.00 11.50 Use, total : 18.70 18.50 18.80 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.18 0.01 -0.05 Ending stocks : 7.45 6.20 4.70 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 29.8 42.5 5/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 2002/03 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area is reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area based on 1991-2002 average acreage abandonment by State, excluding the high and low years. Projected yield per harvested acre based on 1991-2002 average yield per harvested acre by State, excluding the high and low years. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 33.1 percent. WASDE-398-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 200.65 579.97 108.45 109.13 584.96 108.01 195.66 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.24 32.72 26.16 21.15 Total foreign : 176.81 526.71 105.52 103.89 552.24 81.85 174.50 Major exporters 4/ : 24.53 152.12 10.25 55.00 110.19 54.25 22.47 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.89 10.08 1.14 Australia : 4.54 24.85 0.08 2.70 5.43 16.41 7.63 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 4.72 7.76 16.27 6.53 EU-15 : 9.75 91.20 9.82 47.50 92.11 11.49 7.17 Major importers 5/ : 108.61 141.32 48.95 12.45 203.20 3.65 92.03 Brazil : 0.65 3.25 7.01 0.40 10.00 0.01 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.48 0.31 29.37 0.24 5.66 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.24 0.40 19.80 0.50 2.59 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.83 1.38 8.67 0.34 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.70 1.69 10.94 30.72 4.15 6.36 India : 21.50 68.76 0.03 0.50 64.21 3.09 23.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.33 3.56 19.66 68.51 13.81 17.94 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.63 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.48 Kazakhstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.09 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.76 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 195.66 564.76 104.40 118.94 604.05 103.43 156.36 United States : 21.15 43.99 1.99 3.40 31.14 23.81 12.18 Total foreign : 174.50 520.77 102.41 115.54 572.91 79.62 144.19 Major exporters 4/ : 22.47 140.81 11.31 63.64 119.15 38.50 16.94 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 4.98 7.00 1.47 Australia : 7.63 9.50 0.50 4.83 7.55 8.00 2.08 Canada : 6.53 15.69 0.30 5.45 8.50 8.00 6.02 EU-15 : 7.17 103.32 10.50 53.28 98.12 15.50 7.37 Major importers 5/ : 92.03 139.73 45.95 10.85 199.31 3.95 74.46 Brazil : 0.90 2.94 7.20 0.35 10.13 0.01 0.90 China : 76.59 91.00 0.50 7.00 105.61 1.50 60.97 N. Africa 6/ : 5.66 11.56 17.20 0.30 29.08 0.21 5.14 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.25 0.40 18.60 0.90 1.57 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.50 0.33 1.38 Selected other : East. Europe : 6.36 30.65 2.10 10.34 30.17 3.50 5.43 India : 23.00 71.81 0.05 0.60 73.36 5.00 16.50 FSU-12 8/ : 17.94 96.43 2.95 24.56 74.05 25.66 17.62 Russia : 6.48 50.55 0.30 17.50 40.60 12.50 4.23 Kazakhstan : 5.20 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 5.50 6.66 Ukraine : 3.76 20.55 0.40 3.00 13.60 7.50 3.61 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-398-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 156.36 569.52 96.13 109.91 591.43 98.31 134.46 United States : May : 12.18 57.52 2.45 4.76 32.39 25.86 13.90 Total foreign : May : 144.19 512.01 93.68 105.15 559.04 72.45 120.56 Major exporters 4/ : May : 16.94 165.50 5.22 59.43 114.11 53.40 20.15 Argentina May : 1.47 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.00 9.00 1.98 Australia May : 2.08 26.00 0.01 4.30 6.21 16.00 5.88 Canada May : 6.02 24.00 0.20 5.55 7.70 13.90 8.62 EU-15 May : 7.37 101.00 5.00 49.50 95.20 14.50 3.67 Major importers 5/ : May : 74.46 138.24 44.05 9.88 197.72 2.70 56.34 Brazil May : 0.90 3.80 6.50 0.38 10.30 0.01 0.90 China May : 60.97 87.00 1.50 6.50 105.00 0.80 43.67 N. Africa 6/ May : 5.14 14.68 14.40 0.30 29.03 0.21 4.98 Pakistan May : 1.57 19.00 0.25 0.40 18.85 0.40 1.57 SE Asia 7/ May : 1.38 0.00 9.20 1.40 9.05 0.33 1.20 Selected other : East. Europe May : 5.43 27.97 2.75 9.73 29.14 2.30 4.70 India May : 16.50 70.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 3.00 14.55 FSU-12 8/ May : 17.62 67.63 3.84 20.96 70.10 7.66 11.33 Russia May : 4.23 36.00 0.50 15.00 38.00 1.00 1.73 Kazakhstan May : 6.66 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 5.50 6.58 Ukraine May : 3.61 9.50 0.60 1.80 12.30 1.00 0.41 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-398-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 187.56 893.15 101.11 598.95 905.91 103.23 174.80 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 159.00 217.36 54.71 45.05 Total foreign : 134.86 631.29 98.56 439.95 688.55 48.52 129.75 Major exporters 4/ : 7.41 64.34 5.24 35.95 48.65 20.02 8.32 Argentina : 1.27 18.72 0.01 5.47 7.63 11.32 1.05 Australia : 1.31 12.56 0.05 5.52 6.79 4.94 2.20 Canada : 4.33 22.60 4.11 20.76 25.06 2.52 3.46 Major importers 5/ : 28.74 159.52 68.29 161.89 218.78 5.53 32.24 EU-15 : 17.37 106.67 4.24 78.03 103.24 5.04 20.00 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.95 15.52 20.15 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.06 27.17 9.05 19.23 35.27 0.05 3.96 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.27 3.82 13.61 19.02 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.45 8.84 6.74 9.35 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 81.66 122.27 1.96 94.21 133.08 8.63 64.19 East. Europe : 2.65 51.82 1.53 37.34 47.54 3.95 4.50 FSU-12 6/ : 5.93 62.35 1.00 33.71 51.39 6.63 11.26 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.74 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.74 Ukraine : 1.93 17.03 0.10 9.04 12.97 3.49 2.61 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 174.80 861.01 98.79 586.83 893.51 99.51 142.30 United States : 45.05 245.04 2.69 151.75 215.98 46.44 30.37 Total foreign : 129.75 615.96 96.10 435.08 677.53 53.07 111.93 Major exporters 4/ : 8.32 54.19 4.96 31.07 43.82 16.63 7.02 Argentina : 1.05 19.44 0.03 4.79 6.93 12.26 1.33 Australia : 2.20 5.54 0.01 3.84 5.12 1.68 0.95 Canada : 3.46 19.59 4.01 18.12 22.52 1.48 3.07 Major importers 5/ : 32.24 155.13 67.99 158.71 215.80 6.74 32.83 EU-15 : 20.00 106.07 4.07 76.13 101.31 6.47 22.37 Japan : 2.34 0.22 19.24 15.11 19.74 0.00 2.06 Mexico : 3.96 23.72 9.53 18.47 34.50 0.05 2.65 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.87 3.91 13.53 18.84 0.22 0.78 South Korea : 1.16 0.38 9.26 6.86 9.53 0.00 1.26 Selected other : China : 64.19 132.85 1.91 95.03 136.18 13.54 49.24 East. Europe : 4.50 49.88 1.39 38.21 48.36 3.04 4.38 FSU-12 6/ : 11.26 60.76 0.75 35.31 52.89 8.75 11.13 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.50 18.80 30.20 3.60 6.84 Ukraine : 2.61 17.10 0.06 9.03 12.91 4.53 2.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-398-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 142.30 909.29 99.54 596.24 916.86 102.02 134.72 United States : May : 30.37 278.29 2.67 152.68 219.47 53.92 37.95 Total foreign : May : 111.93 631.00 96.86 443.56 697.40 48.10 96.78 Major exporters 4/ : May : 7.02 66.70 2.64 34.42 47.73 20.34 8.30 Argentina May : 1.33 19.95 0.01 5.08 7.24 12.72 1.34 Australia May : 0.95 9.91 0.00 4.93 6.39 3.03 1.45 Canada May : 3.07 27.43 2.06 20.11 24.86 3.37 4.33 Major importers 5/ : May : 32.83 159.65 70.07 163.28 223.25 6.77 32.53 EU-15 May : 22.37 107.00 3.51 77.30 104.43 6.62 21.84 Japan May : 2.06 0.25 18.74 14.21 19.04 0.00 2.02 Mexico May : 2.65 25.45 12.13 21.06 37.70 0.05 2.48 Southeast Asia May : 0.78 15.27 4.26 14.07 19.45 0.10 0.76 South Korea May : 1.26 0.38 9.86 7.56 10.23 0.00 1.26 Selected other : China May : 49.24 129.30 2.31 93.06 135.71 8.03 37.11 East. Europe May : 4.38 50.88 1.48 38.09 48.31 3.49 4.93 FSU-12 6/ May : 11.13 53.92 1.03 35.95 53.47 6.12 6.49 Russia May : 6.84 27.70 0.80 19.35 30.95 1.51 2.88 Ukraine May : 2.32 17.20 0.03 9.50 13.20 4.08 2.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-398-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 151.61 599.69 74.15 435.06 623.38 75.75 127.92 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.26 149.27 201.45 47.98 40.55 Total foreign : 103.37 358.21 73.89 285.79 421.92 27.77 87.37 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 24.75 0.86 6.65 12.75 12.00 1.98 Argentina : 0.64 14.70 0.01 2.65 4.15 10.80 0.39 South Africa : 0.49 10.05 0.85 4.00 8.60 1.20 1.59 Major importers 5/ : 11.68 81.44 45.34 87.25 125.90 0.55 12.01 EU-15 : 3.74 39.69 2.91 32.80 42.40 0.06 3.87 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.17 20.40 4.08 8.40 23.60 0.05 2.99 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.07 3.82 13.42 18.82 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.61 6.58 8.74 0.00 1.16 Selected other : Brazil : 1.65 35.50 0.43 30.50 34.50 2.05 1.02 Canada : 0.88 8.39 3.95 9.67 11.97 0.20 1.06 China : 81.19 114.09 0.04 92.00 123.30 8.61 63.40 East. Europe : 1.50 27.55 1.07 21.53 25.01 3.07 2.04 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.81 0.65 5.70 7.04 0.37 1.46 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.53 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.08 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 127.92 594.47 74.09 431.00 624.56 74.46 97.84 United States : 40.55 228.80 0.38 143.52 201.56 41.28 26.90 Total foreign : 87.37 365.67 73.71 287.48 423.00 33.18 70.94 Major exporters 4/ : 1.98 24.70 0.77 6.30 12.40 12.70 2.35 Argentina : 0.39 15.50 0.02 2.20 3.70 11.50 0.71 South Africa : 1.59 9.20 0.75 4.10 8.70 1.20 1.64 Major importers 5/ : 12.01 77.11 47.41 87.19 125.26 0.47 10.81 EU-15 : 3.87 39.44 3.00 32.60 41.60 0.20 4.51 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.00 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.19 Mexico : 2.99 17.00 6.00 9.00 24.20 0.05 1.74 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.67 3.91 13.34 18.64 0.22 0.78 South Korea : 1.16 0.07 9.00 6.70 8.97 0.00 1.26 Selected other : Brazil : 1.02 37.50 0.30 31.70 35.40 2.50 0.92 Canada : 1.06 9.07 3.70 9.92 12.22 0.30 1.30 China : 63.40 125.00 0.10 93.00 126.50 13.50 48.50 East. Europe : 2.04 27.01 0.78 21.80 25.42 2.10 2.30 FSU-12 6/ : 1.46 8.42 0.43 6.47 7.84 1.04 1.43 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.30 1.35 1.75 0.00 0.18 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-398-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 97.84 624.33 74.53 429.66 630.43 75.44 91.74 United States : May : 26.90 255.54 0.25 142.25 202.57 46.99 33.13 Total foreign : May : 70.94 368.79 74.28 287.41 427.85 28.45 58.61 Major exporters 4/ : May : 2.35 25.00 0.41 6.60 12.70 13.20 1.86 Argentina May : 0.71 16.00 0.01 2.50 4.00 12.00 0.72 South Africa May : 1.64 9.00 0.40 4.10 8.70 1.20 1.14 Major importers 5/ : May : 10.81 79.59 48.76 87.62 127.82 0.35 10.99 EU-15 May : 4.51 39.50 3.00 32.00 42.20 0.20 4.61 Japan May : 1.19 0.00 15.50 11.00 15.50 0.00 1.20 Mexico May : 1.74 19.00 7.00 10.00 25.80 0.05 1.89 Southeast Asia May : 0.78 15.07 4.26 13.88 19.25 0.10 0.76 South Korea May : 1.26 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.26 Selected other : Brazil May : 0.92 38.00 0.30 32.80 36.30 2.00 0.92 Canada May : 1.30 9.50 2.00 8.60 11.20 0.30 1.30 China May : 48.50 122.00 0.10 91.00 126.10 8.00 36.50 East. Europe May : 2.30 28.84 0.83 22.46 26.18 3.00 2.80 FSU-12 6/ May : 1.43 8.25 0.70 6.70 8.17 1.03 1.18 Russia May : 0.18 1.20 0.60 1.40 1.80 0.00 0.18 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-398-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 3/ : 148.03 398.61 25.71 410.80 27.04 135.83 United States : 0.89 6.74 0.42 3.88 2.94 1.22 Total foreign : 147.14 391.87 25.29 406.92 24.09 134.62 Major exporters 4/ : 28.34 135.50 0.06 117.65 18.42 27.83 India : 25.05 93.08 0.00 87.83 6.30 24.00 Pakistan : 0.48 3.88 0.00 2.65 1.63 0.09 Thailand : 1.90 17.50 0.02 9.77 7.25 2.40 Vietnam : 0.91 21.04 0.04 17.40 3.25 1.34 Major importers 5/ : 12.85 54.36 12.20 65.70 0.42 13.29 Brazil : 1.17 7.12 0.63 8.08 0.03 0.82 EU-15 : 0.89 1.62 0.89 2.22 0.34 0.85 Indonesia : 4.61 33.09 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.84 Nigeria : 1.02 2.10 1.91 3.55 0.00 1.48 Philippines : 2.80 8.45 1.20 8.90 0.00 3.55 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 2.13 1.40 3.20 5.18 0.06 1.50 Selected other : Burma : 1.38 10.44 0.00 9.90 1.00 0.92 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.07 0.09 0.38 0.44 0.00 0.10 China : 94.10 124.31 0.31 134.58 1.96 82.17 Egypt : 0.89 3.58 0.03 3.15 0.47 0.86 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.66 9.00 0.05 1.52 Mexico : 0.16 0.19 0.54 0.68 0.00 0.20 South Korea : 1.74 5.52 0.12 5.10 0.13 2.14 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 3/ : 135.83 381.05 25.47 408.76 26.79 108.12 United States : 1.22 6.51 0.41 3.85 3.61 0.68 Total foreign : 134.62 374.54 25.06 404.92 23.18 107.43 Major exporters 4/ : 27.83 119.44 0.04 112.70 17.10 17.51 India : 24.00 77.00 0.00 82.50 4.25 14.25 Pakistan : 0.09 4.23 0.00 2.68 1.35 0.29 Thailand : 2.40 17.12 0.00 9.92 7.50 2.10 Vietnam : 1.34 21.09 0.04 17.60 4.00 0.87 Major importers 5/ : 13.29 55.04 12.22 66.86 0.57 13.10 Brazil : 0.82 7.15 0.95 8.10 0.03 0.79 EU-15 : 0.85 1.71 0.89 2.23 0.49 0.73 Indonesia : 4.84 33.20 3.50 36.79 0.00 4.75 Nigeria : 1.48 2.20 1.82 3.85 0.00 1.65 Philippines : 3.55 8.45 1.00 9.11 0.00 3.89 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 1.50 1.88 3.04 5.30 0.06 1.06 Selected other : Burma : 0.92 10.44 0.00 10.10 0.60 0.66 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 China : 82.17 121.80 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.22 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.50 0.84 Japan : 1.52 8.09 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.13 Mexico : 0.20 0.10 0.48 0.70 0.00 0.08 South Korea : 2.14 4.93 0.15 5.10 0.27 1.84 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-398-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) : World 3/ May : 108.12 393.73 25.00 410.00 25.50 91.85 United States May : 0.68 6.23 0.41 3.94 2.69 0.69 Total foreign May : 107.43 387.50 24.59 406.06 22.81 91.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. WASDE-398-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World : 42.44 98.35 29.29 94.50 29.04 0.06 46.48 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.70 11.00 0.18 7.45 Total foreign : 36.44 78.05 29.27 86.81 18.04 -0.12 39.03 Major exporters 4/ : 8.51 27.52 1.40 12.67 14.14 -0.09 10.71 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.74 4.15 0.27 0.94 3.78 -0.14 2.60 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.10 -0.16 2.21 Major importers : 26.15 47.45 23.04 67.72 2.63 -0.03 26.32 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.95 0.67 -0.20 2.32 India : 3.77 12.30 1.75 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.49 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 1.90 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.67 China : 14.35 24.40 0.45 26.00 0.34 0.00 12.86 Europe : 1.58 2.62 4.38 5.37 1.30 0.07 1.84 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.85 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.84 0.21 9.59 9.02 0.05 0.08 2.48 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 Thailand : 0.39 0.10 2.06 1.90 0.00 0.03 0.62 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World : 46.48 87.91 30.12 97.80 29.96 0.05 36.70 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.05 7.50 11.00 0.01 6.20 Total foreign : 39.03 70.70 30.08 90.30 18.96 0.05 30.50 Major exporters 4/ : 10.71 23.87 1.40 13.86 14.33 0.07 7.72 Pakistan : 3.26 7.70 0.85 9.20 0.25 0.03 2.34 Central Asia 5/ : 1.94 6.84 3/ 1.87 5.30 0.00 1.61 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 3.91 3/ 0.21 3.76 0.10 1.32 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.60 2.56 0.48 1.08 3.17 -0.08 1.47 Australia : 2.21 1.40 3/ 0.13 2.55 -0.10 1.03 Major importers : 26.32 43.88 23.81 70.00 3.20 -0.03 20.84 Brazil : 2.32 3.70 0.60 3.80 0.60 -0.20 2.42 India : 4.49 10.90 1.40 13.50 0.05 0.00 3.24 Mexico : 0.67 0.19 2.05 2.20 0.05 0.03 0.64 China : 12.86 22.60 2.60 28.00 0.75 0.00 9.31 Europe : 1.84 2.22 4.37 5.30 1.56 0.07 1.51 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.10 2.10 6.30 0.13 0.00 1.23 Selected Asia 8/ : 2.48 0.16 8.98 9.20 0.07 0.08 2.28 Indonesia : 0.45 0.06 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.39 Thailand : 0.62 0.05 1.90 2.00 0.01 0.03 0.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-398-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World : May : 36.70 96.50 31.00 99.00 30.70 0.00 34.50 United States : May : 6.20 17.20 0.05 7.30 11.50 -0.05 4.70 Total foreign : May : 30.50 79.30 30.95 91.70 19.20 0.05 29.80 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the historical difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. WASDE-398-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 27.76 175.06 55.15 146.81 171.82 55.50 30.64 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.62 49.20 27.10 6.74 Total foreign : 19.86 100.00 55.05 102.18 122.62 28.40 23.90 Major exporters 3/ : 14.18 70.32 1.32 40.80 44.06 25.44 16.32 Argentina : 5.52 27.80 0.42 17.30 18.40 7.42 7.93 Brazil : 8.64 39.00 0.90 22.62 24.69 15.47 8.38 Major importers 4/ : 4.91 18.12 45.25 46.04 59.52 1.91 6.85 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 EU-15 : 0.69 1.05 19.34 16.80 18.47 1.68 0.92 Japan : 0.66 0.24 4.77 3.78 5.08 0.00 0.59 Mexico : 0.18 0.10 4.38 4.45 4.49 0.00 0.18 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 30.64 184.30 56.52 158.43 184.34 55.14 31.98 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.90 28.92 5.66 Total foreign : 23.90 105.62 56.46 112.17 133.45 26.22 26.32 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.60 1.40 46.41 49.96 23.12 21.25 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.30 20.86 22.06 6.00 10.16 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.91 15.00 11.07 Major importers 4/ : 6.85 18.08 44.73 49.24 63.13 2.28 4.26 China : 4.91 15.41 10.38 20.40 28.31 0.30 2.10 EU-15 : 0.92 1.21 20.58 17.90 19.68 1.96 1.08 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.88 5.21 0.00 0.67 Mexico : 0.18 0.07 4.51 4.61 4.66 0.00 0.10 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 32.03 194.04 62.64 166.82 194.51 63.12 31.08 May : 31.98 194.04 62.75 166.78 194.62 63.20 30.96 United States : April : 5.66 74.29 0.05 44.09 48.99 27.08 3.94 May : 5.66 74.29 0.11 43.95 48.91 27.49 3.66 Total foreign : April : 26.37 119.75 62.59 122.74 145.52 36.04 27.14 May : 26.32 119.75 62.64 122.83 145.71 35.71 27.30 Major exporters 3/ : April : 21.25 89.90 1.30 53.50 57.43 32.80 22.21 May : 21.25 89.90 1.40 53.80 57.73 32.40 22.41 Argentina Apr : 10.16 35.00 0.40 24.20 25.49 9.50 10.57 May : 10.16 35.00 0.40 24.50 25.79 9.10 10.67 Brazil Apr : 11.07 51.00 0.90 28.30 30.84 20.50 11.63 May : 11.07 51.00 1.00 28.30 30.84 20.50 11.73 Major importers 4/ : April : 4.31 18.99 51.20 53.22 68.21 2.21 4.08 May : 4.26 18.95 51.05 52.92 68.01 2.21 4.03 China Apr : 2.10 16.40 16.50 23.95 32.75 0.27 1.98 May : 2.10 16.40 16.50 23.95 32.75 0.27 1.98 EU-15 Apr : 1.08 0.95 20.60 17.90 19.74 1.92 0.97 May : 1.08 0.95 20.10 17.40 19.24 1.92 0.97 Japan Apr : 0.67 0.28 5.05 3.98 5.30 0.00 0.70 May : 0.67 0.28 5.15 4.08 5.40 0.00 0.70 Mexico Apr : 0.16 0.13 4.70 4.80 4.84 0.00 0.14 May : 0.10 0.09 4.85 4.90 4.94 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-398-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 4.10 116.58 41.36 117.10 41.14 3.79 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.71 6.99 0.35 Total foreign : 3.84 80.85 41.31 88.40 34.15 3.44 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.13 0.18 8.99 26.63 0.86 Argentina : 0.27 13.65 0.00 0.22 13.60 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.86 0.18 7.55 10.68 0.72 India : 0.00 3.61 0.00 1.22 2.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.21 30.15 27.34 51.48 6.05 1.18 EU-15 : 0.78 13.35 20.16 27.69 5.94 0.66 China : 0.00 15.05 0.10 15.04 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.79 125.47 46.68 125.78 46.26 3.89 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.01 6.80 0.22 Total foreign : 3.44 88.91 46.55 95.78 39.45 3.67 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.62 0.33 9.38 30.49 0.95 Argentina : 0.10 16.45 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.26 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 7.90 11.98 0.65 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 32.68 30.42 55.71 7.32 1.25 EU-15 : 0.66 14.23 22.17 30.09 6.26 0.71 China : 0.00 16.30 0.02 15.27 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 3.90 131.78 48.14 131.10 48.50 4.21 May : 3.89 131.80 48.44 131.10 48.79 4.25 United States : April : 0.22 34.63 0.22 29.48 5.35 0.23 May : 0.22 34.54 0.22 29.30 5.44 0.23 Total foreign : April : 3.68 97.15 47.92 101.62 43.14 3.98 May : 3.67 97.26 48.22 101.79 43.34 4.02 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.94 44.38 0.40 10.20 34.30 1.21 May : 0.95 44.62 0.40 10.32 34.40 1.26 Argentina Apr : 0.26 19.05 0.00 0.26 18.70 0.35 May : 0.26 19.30 0.00 0.26 18.90 0.40 Brazil Apr : 0.65 22.32 0.40 8.40 14.15 0.82 May : 0.65 22.32 0.40 8.40 14.15 0.82 India Apr : 0.04 3.00 0.00 1.54 1.45 0.04 May : 0.04 3.00 0.00 1.66 1.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.25 35.62 30.32 58.83 7.15 1.22 May : 1.25 35.27 30.67 58.83 7.15 1.22 EU-15 Apr : 0.71 14.23 22.02 30.22 6.03 0.70 May : 0.71 13.85 22.32 30.15 6.03 0.70 China Apr : 0.00 19.07 0.03 17.99 1.10 0.00 May : 0.00 19.15 0.03 18.07 1.10 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-398-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 2.58 26.75 7.59 26.28 7.98 2.66 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.35 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.67 18.40 7.56 18.93 7.34 1.36 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 10.52 0.69 4.97 6.55 0.55 Argentina : 0.23 3.19 0.00 0.11 3.21 0.10 Brazil : 0.41 4.32 0.07 3.08 1.53 0.19 EU-15 : 0.21 3.01 0.62 1.78 1.81 0.25 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.08 1.66 5.67 0.07 0.29 China : 0.28 3.24 0.08 3.26 0.06 0.28 India : 0.00 0.82 1.40 2.20 0.02 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.66 28.89 8.86 28.57 9.37 2.47 United States : 1.30 8.57 0.02 7.68 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.36 20.32 8.83 20.88 8.23 1.40 Major exporters 3/ : 0.55 11.79 0.76 5.12 7.40 0.58 Argentina : 0.10 3.87 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.12 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.10 1.78 0.18 EU-15 : 0.25 3.21 0.61 1.90 1.90 0.28 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.46 2.00 6.47 0.06 0.22 China : 0.28 3.58 0.37 3.96 0.06 0.21 India : 0.00 0.84 1.55 2.38 0.00 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 2.46 30.60 10.10 30.58 10.52 2.06 May : 2.47 30.59 10.06 30.51 10.52 2.09 United States : April : 1.07 8.37 0.03 7.85 0.95 0.67 May : 1.07 8.35 0.03 7.80 0.95 0.69 Total foreign : April : 1.39 22.23 10.07 22.74 9.57 1.39 May : 1.40 22.24 10.03 22.70 9.56 1.40 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.58 13.10 0.74 5.22 8.70 0.50 May : 0.58 13.05 0.74 5.16 8.70 0.52 Argentina Apr : 0.12 4.48 0.00 0.12 4.38 0.10 May : 0.12 4.54 0.00 0.12 4.42 0.12 Brazil Apr : 0.18 5.40 0.15 3.18 2.39 0.16 May : 0.18 5.40 0.15 3.18 2.39 0.16 EU-15 Apr : 0.28 3.21 0.59 1.92 1.93 0.24 May : 0.28 3.11 0.59 1.86 1.88 0.24 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.22 4.94 3.09 7.74 0.11 0.41 May : 0.22 4.93 3.09 7.72 0.11 0.41 China Apr : 0.21 4.21 1.10 5.02 0.10 0.40 May : 0.21 4.21 1.10 5.02 0.10 0.40 India Apr : 0.00 0.68 1.90 2.57 0.01 0.00 May : 0.00 0.68 1.90 2.57 0.01 0.00 Pakistan Apr : 0.01 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.00 0.01 May : 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.14 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-398-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2002 : II : 6833 4797 11730 8234 1441 9813 21543 1794 44.0 III : 7097 4832 12030 8251 1412 9807 21837 1821 41.8 IV : 6783 5255 12148 7936 1482 9552 21700 1835 41.6 Annual : 27090 19664 47169 32240 5713 38500 85669 7221 169.8 : 2003 : I : 6283 4889 11271 7735 1379 9240 20511 1776 43.0 II*: 6825 4725 11648 8150 1425 9705 21353 1790 44.4 III*: 6925 4710 11730 8200 1425 9755 21485 1825 42.0 IV*: 6200 5190 11489 8100 1475 9700 21189 1850 42.1 Annual : Apr Proj : 26135 19500 46026 32175 5675 38360 84386 7235 171.7 May Proj : 26233 19514 46138 32185 5704 38400 84538 7241 171.4 : 2004 : I*: 6000 4775 10875 7900 1375 9405 20280 1785 43.8 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 25650 19300 45335 32725 5775 39030 84365 7300 172.8 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2002 : II : 65.58 35.03 56.1 62.9 58.4 12.03 III : 63.29 33.86 56.4 66.7 65.3 11.33 IV : 69.10 31.34 53.7 68.2 75.5 11.97 Annual : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.11 : 2003 : I : 77.82 35.38 60.3 61.1 77.2 11.37 II*: 75-77 39-41 59-61 61-63 68-70 10.65-10.95 III*: 72-76 40-42 59-63 64-68 68-72 10.80-11.40 IV*: 74-80 36-40 60-64 69-75 77-83 11.65-12.55 Annual : Apr Proj : 74-78 38-40 60-63 65-68 72-76 11.00-11.50 May Proj : 75-78 38-39 60-62 64-67 72-76 11.10-11.60 : 2004 : I*: 76-82 39-43 57-61 59-63 72-78 11.15-12.15 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 77-84 41-44 58-63 64-69 65-70 11.15-12.15 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-398-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2002 : 606 27192 3218 31016 2447 691 27878 67.6 2003 Proj. Apr : 691 26240 3265 30196 2500 525 27171 65.5 May : 691 26338 3230 30259 2460 525 27274 65.5 2004 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 525 25755 3365 29645 2550 600 26495 62.9 : PORK : 2002 : 536 19685 1071 21292 1614 533 19145 51.5 2003 Proj. Apr : 533 19522 1080 21135 1660 540 18935 50.6 May : 533 19536 1145 21214 1660 540 19014 50.6 2004 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 540 19322 1200 21062 1695 540 18827 49.6 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2002 : 1160 47305 4451 52916 4068 1238 47610 120.9 2003 Proj. Apr : 1238 46167 4510 51915 4165 1079 46671 117.8 May : 1238 46279 4535 52052 4125 1079 46848 117.7 2004 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1079 45476 4732 51287 4250 1154 45883 114.2 : BROILERS : 2002 : 712 31895 12 32619 4800 763 27057 80.5 2003 Proj. Apr : 763 31831 12 32605 5125 700 26780 79.3 May : 763 31841 12 32615 5000 700 26915 79.3 2004 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 700 32375 12 33087 5200 650 27237 79.4 : TURKEYS : 2002 : 241 5638 1 5880 439 333 5107 17.7 2003 Proj. Apr : 333 5601 1 5935 470 350 5114 17.6 May : 333 5629 1 5963 450 350 5162 17.7 2004 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 350 5699 1 6050 465 325 5259 17.9 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2002 : 960 38080 17 39057 5373 1101 32582 99.7 2003 Proj. Apr : 1101 37941 17 39059 5715 1056 32287 98.2 May : 1101 37980 17 39099 5560 1056 32482 98.4 2004 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1056 38604 17 39677 5775 983 32918 98.7 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2002 : 2120 85385 4468 91973 9441 2339 80192 220.5 2003 Proj. Apr : 2339 84108 4527 90974 9880 2135 78958 216.1 May : 2339 84259 4552 91151 9685 2135 79330 216.1 2004 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 2135 84080 4749 90964 10025 2137 78801 212.9 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-398-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2003 Projected : 2004 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2001 : 2002 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 NA 10.0 Production : 7155.0 7221.0 7235.0 7241.0 NA 7300.0 Imports : 8.9 15.0 12.0 12.0 NA 12.0 Total supply : 7175.2 7246.4 7257.3 7263.3 NA 7322.0 : Use : Exports : 190.0 173.7 166.0 160.0 NA 173.0 Hatching use : 964.2 961.3 960.0 961.2 NA 980.0 Ending stocks : 10.4 10.3 10.0 10.0 NA 10.0 Consumption : Total : 6010.6 6101.1 6121.3 6132.1 NA 6159.0 Per capita (number) : 252.6 253.7 253.1 252.3 NA 250.9 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Proj 1/: 2003/04 Proj 1/ Commodity :2000/01:2001/02:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 8.9 8.8 11.2 11.2 NA 11.9 Production : 165.2 169.2 171.0 170.9 NA 172.6 Farm use : 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 NA 1.0 Marketings : 164.0 168.0 169.8 169.8 NA 171.6 Imports 2/ : 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.1 NA 5.0 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.3 182.0 186.1 186.1 NA 188.5 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 169.2 170.4 172.5 172.9 NA 177.3 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.9 11.9 NA 9.9 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.3 1.7 1.4 NA 1.3 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 6.3 9.6 8.8 9.0 NA 6.0 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 12.29 11.03 9.55- 9.70- NA 9.70- : 9.85 9.90 NA 10.70 : Class IV : 13.88 11.22 9.80- 9.90- NA 9.50- : 10.30 10.20 NA 10.70 : All milk 5/ : 14.51 12.74 11.10- 11.20- NA 11.05- : 11.40 11.40 NA 12.05 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 0 0 50 35 NA 40 Cheese : 17 9 50 50 NA 35 Nonfat dry milk : 525 817 715 730 NA 485 Dry whole milk : 3 0 0 0 NA 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-398-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 22-year record of the differences between the May projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the May projection and the final estimate have averaged 14.8 million tons (2.8%) ranging from -32.5 to 31.5 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 9 times. Reliability of May Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.8 14.8 -32.5 31.5 13 9 U.S. : 5.2 3.1 -7.2 9.8 10 12 Foreign : 2.8 13.1 -25.3 28.7 12 10 Exports : World : 4.3 4.9 -16.3 12.7 13 9 U.S. : 8.3 2.8 -10.0 7.8 12 9 Foreign : 5.1 4.2 -12.0 5.3 14 8 Domestic use : World : 1.9 10.1 -28.0 19.9 13 9 U.S. : 6.5 2.0 -6.4 4.0 14 8 Foreign : 1.8 8.9 -24.7 18.4 15 7 Ending stocks : World : 9.7 12.2 -21.5 26.9 14 8 U.S. : 17.9 3.9 -9.0 14.1 12 10 Foreign : 10.3 10.2 -17.8 16.8 12 10 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.2 25.3 -31.9 75.3 8 14 U.S. : 10.5 21.3 -35.9 70.3 11 11 Foreign : 2.3 13.6 -27.4 42.8 6 16 Exports : World : 5.9 6.2 -10.0 15.5 15 7 U.S. : 16.0 8.4 -22.8 15.3 9 13 Foreign : 13.3 6.8 -14.0 14.2 13 9 Domestic use : World : 1.8 14.5 -16.7 32.4 7 15 U.S. : 4.6 8.1 -16.6 33.0 14 8 Foreign : 1.7 11.0 -8.4 32.8 8 14 Ending stocks : World : 16.6 21.6 -71.4 48.1 13 9 U.S. : 38.3 18.3 -57.6 43.8 10 12 Foreign : 15.5 11.1 -23.9 18.6 16 6 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.3 7.9 -21.8 14.5 15 7 U.S. : 6.0 0.3 -1.0 0.5 12 9 Foreign : 2.4 7.9 -22.0 14.5 15 7 Exports : World : 8.8 1.7 -7.5 1.1 16 6 U.S. : 8.6 0.2 -0.7 0.7 13 6 Foreign : 9.4 1.6 -7.1 0.9 17 5 Domestic use : World : 1.8 5.9 -19.4 5.0 18 4 U.S. : 7.2 0.2 -0.5 0.6 8 13 Foreign : 1.8 5.9 -20.0 5.2 18 4 Ending stocks : World : 11.7 4.4 -15.6 9.0 15 7 U.S. : 30.0 0.3 -0.8 0.9 10 10 Foreign : 12.5 4.5 -16.4 9.1 15 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-398-33 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 7.4 4.2 -11.3 12.0 10 12 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 13.7 2.7 -6.7 6.4 13 9 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 5.7 2.2 -7.5 4.2 16 6 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 45.6 3.0 -4.5 8.4 6 16 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.7 3.9 -13.7 11.4 14 8 U.S. : 9.4 1.4 -2.8 3.1 9 13 Foreign : 4.9 3.4 -12.2 10.5 13 9 Exports : World : 5.8 1.4 -4.2 2.7 10 12 U.S. : 20.1 1.0 -2.4 3.0 13 9 Foreign : 6.6 1.2 -3.5 1.9 9 13 Mill use : World : 2.6 2.2 -7.6 5.0 10 12 U.S. : 8.0 0.7 -1.4 1.3 12 10 Foreign : 2.7 2.1 -6.9 3.9 10 12 Ending stocks : World : 16.2 5.7 -13.8 15.4 14 8 U.S. : 34.0 1.5 -3.4 3.7 10 12 Foreign : 15.4 4.8 -13.1 12.7 14 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2002/03 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 22 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-398-34 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 11.0 738 -1378 2379 8 14 Exports : 17.3 309 -850 583 9 13 Domestic use : 5.1 304 -558 1095 15 7 Ending stocks : 46.0 640 -2091 1459 10 12 : SORGHUM : Production : 16.2 104 -228 171 10 12 Exports : 17.7 42 -105 97 11 11 Domestic use : 15.5 63 -162 100 11 11 Ending stocks : 52.7 73 -238 191 8 14 : BARLEY : Production : 10.1 37 -73 206 7 15 Exports : 33.6 19 -92 53 12 9 Domestic use : 10.2 38 -72 95 12 10 Ending stocks : 15.8 27 -60 78 9 13 : OATS : Production : 17.0 44 -77 231 5 17 Exports : 80.7 2 -5 8 6 9 Domestic use : 8.4 29 -39 160 8 14 Ending stocks : 16.7 20 -62 77 5 14 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 5.0 1496 -3696 4162 15 7 Exports : 17.6 1132 -2750 2364 12 10 Domestic use : 3.5 798 -1800 1559 14 8 Ending stocks : 34.5 82 -234 388 9 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.8 675 -1973 1443 14 8 Exports : 28.7 471 -1700 925 11 11 Domestic use : 3.1 395 -985 608 17 5 Ending stocks : 36.2 526 -998 1188 12 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.9 468 -398 13919 15 6 Pork : 2.0 322 -779 826 15 6 Broilers : 1.1 238 -497 659 13 8 Turkeys : 1.7 72 -234 173 10 11 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.9 56 -83 125 16 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.7 1.0 -3.2 3.1 9 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2002/03 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 22 for crops and 21 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2002 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 2001/02 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ------ End of File ------