WASDE-419 February 9, 2005 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are down 25 million bushels from last month. Exports are up 25 million bushels due to higher world imports and stronger-than-expected sales of hard bread wheats. Hard red spring wheat exports are 15 million bushels more than last month; hard red winter exports are up 12 million bushels; and white wheat exports are up 5 million bushels. Soft red winter wheat exports are down 5 million bushels and durum exports are 2 million bushels lower than last month. The projected price range is $3.30 to $3.45 per bushel, up 5 cents on the lower end. Projected 2004/05 global wheat production, use, and stocks are up slightly from last month. Global wheat production is raised 1.3 million tons to a record 622 million tons, up 13 percent from last year. Larger crops are projected for Russia (up 0.8 million tons) and Serbia and Montenegro (up 0.6 million tons), with smaller increases for several other countries. Global consumption is raised fractionally from last month due to higher feed use. Global imports and exports are up slightly from last month. The EU-25's imports are up 0.5 million tons and smaller increases in imports are projected for Georgia, Mozambique, Ghana, and Jamaica. In addition to larger projected U.S. exports, Argentina's exports increase 0.5 million tons. Lower exports for Kazakstan (down 0.5 million tons) and Romania (down 0.2 million tons) are partially offsetting. Global ending stocks are up fractionally from last month's projection with the largest changes occurring in Argentina (down 0.9 million tons), the United States (down 0.7 million tons), and the EU-25 (up 0.7 million tons). COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of corn are up 50 million bushels from last month due to smaller exports. Exports are down due to increased competition from Argentina and smaller imports by Canada. Domestic use for 2004/05 is unchanged from last month. The projected price range of corn is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $1.85 to $2.05 per bushel. A reassessment of data on food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) of barley results in a 22-million-bushel reduction in FSI use relative to last month. Projected feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels from last month, offsetting much of this decline. Similar changes are made in barley domestic use for 2002/03 and 2003/04. Barley ending stocks for 2004/05 are up 2 million bushels from last month. The projected price range of barley is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $2.45 to $2.55 per bushel. No changes are made in the supply and use of grain sorghum and oats but the projected price range of grain sorghum is narrowed 10 cents on each end to $1.60 to $1.80 per bushel. Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply, use, and stocks projections are up from last month. Global production is raised 0.8 million tons to a record 997 million tons, 10 percent larger than 2003/04. Larger coarse grain crops are projected for Argentina (up 0.7 million tons) and Belarus (up 0.5 million tons) with smaller increases projected for other countries. Brazil's corn crop is lowered 0.5 million tons and Russia's coarse grain crop is down 0.4 million tons. In addition, Argentina's 2003/04 corn crop is up 0.5 million tons. Global feed consumption of coarse grains rises slightly from last month with the largest increases projected for Belarus and Russia (up 0.5 and 0.4 million tons, respectively). Canada's feed consumption is down 0.2 million tons. Small decreases in imports are projected for Indonesia, Canada, Russia, and the EU-25. Larger exports are projected for Argentina and Australia (both up 0.5 million tons), offset by smaller exports from the United States (down 1.3 million tons), Brazil (down 0.6 million tons), and Russia (down 0.5 million tons). Global coarse grain stocks increase 1.5 million tons from last month and are up 28 million tons from last year. The largest month-to-month changes in projected ending stocks are for the United States (up 1.3 million tons), Australia (down 0.5 million tons), and Russia (down 0.3 million tons). RICE: No changes are made this month in supply forecasts. U.S. exports for 2004/05 are projected at 105 million cwt, unchanged from last month; however, rough rice exports are lowered 2 million cwt to 30 million cwt while combined milled/brown rice exports are raised 2 million cwt to 75 million cwt. Exports of long-grain rice are projected at 81 million cwt, 1 million cwt above last month. Combined medium- and short-grain rice exports are projected at 24 million cwt, 1 million cwt below last month. Ending stocks are projected at 40.1 million cwt, unchanged from last month but 16.4 million cwt above 2003/04 and the largest stocks since 1986/87. The season-average price range is unchanged at $7.25 to $7.55 per cwt compared to a revised $8.08 per cwt for 2003/04. Global production, imports, exports, and ending stocks for 2004/05 are raised from a month ago. World production is projected at 402.1 million tons, 4.0 million tons above last month, and 12.9 million tons above 2003/04. The increase in global rice production is due primarily to larger crops projected for Brazil, India, and Vietnam. Global imports are raised 610,000 tons due primarily to increases for the Philippines, China, South Africa, and Sri Lanka. World exports are raised primarily due to upward revisions for India, Vietnam, and Thailand, which are partially offset by lower exports for China. Global 2004/05 ending stocks are projected at 76.8 million tons, up 5.0 million tons from last month, but about 9.1 million tons below 2003/04. The increase in ending stocks is primarily due to increases for Brazil, China, India, the Philippines, and Vietnam. OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2004/05 are increased 5 million bushels to 440 million bushels this month, the highest since 1985/86. Soybean crush is reduced to 1,655 million bushels, reflecting lower domestic soybean meal demand. Despite reduced soybean crush, soybean oil production is slightly higher this month because of an increase in the oil extraction rate. Soybean exports are unchanged at 1,010 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2004/05 is projected at $4.80 to $5.40 per bushel, compared with $4.75 to $5.45 last month. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 20.5 to 22.5 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $150 to $165 per short ton, unchanged from last month. Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 390.2 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last month. Global soybean production is reduced 2.2 million tons to 228.6 million tons. Soybean crops are lowered for Brazil, India, and Uruguay. Brazil's crop is projected at 63 million tons, down 1.5 million tons because of dry weather through January in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul. Global rapeseed production is raised 0.6 million tons to 43.6 million tons primarily due to increases for India and the EU. For India, favorable weather and prices during planting season led to record sown area, and timely rains during the growing season are expected to result in above-average yields. Other oilseed changes include higher cottonseed production in India and reduced peanut production in China. Malaysia palm oil production is projected at a record 14.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2004/05 are raised 1 million tons to 67.2 million tons as lower projected crush more than offsets reduced oilseed production. Lower crush reflects reduced global protein consumption, primarily for soybean meal in the EU. Soybean imports, crush, and soybean meal consumption for China are all raised this month. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2004/05 is decreased 26,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Cane sugar production is decreased 20,000 tons (mostly Hawaii) and beet sugar production is decreased 6,000 tons, based on processors' production projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Sugar use is unchanged. For 2003/04, deliveries for domestic food use are increased 18,000 tons due to revised deliveries of refined sugar imported for direct consumption. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place including the announced minimal-risk rule. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 are raised slightly from January as lower pork production is more than offset by higher beef and poultry production. Beef production forecasts are raised as feedlot placements in December were higher than expected. USDA's January Cattle inventory report indicated that January 1 cattle numbers increased for the first time since 1996 and producers are retaining more heifers for addition to breeding herds. However, the 2004 calf crop was the smallest since 1951, implying a limited pool of calves from which to draw heifers for future retention. Slower hog slaughter in the first quarter is expected to result in less pork production than forecast last month. Broiler forecasts for 2005 are unchanged but hatchery production data point towards higher turkey production. Meat trade forecasts are little changed from last month. Beef imports for 2004 are raised on higher imports from Oceania but trade forecasts for 2005 are unchanged. Pork imports are lowered for 2004 and 2005. Pork exports for 2004 and 2005 are forecast higher as Mexico and Asian markets remain strong. Broiler export estimates for 2004 and forecast exports for 2005 are raised from last month. Cattle, hog, and broiler price forecasts for 2005 are little changed from last month. The milk production forecast for 2004/05 is lowered from last month. Data from USDA's recent Milk Production report point towards slower-than-expected growth in milk per cow. Cheese and butter prices are expected to decline less rapidly than expected from their recent highs and supplies are expected to remain relatively tight in the face of slower expected growth in milk production. Nonfat dry milk prices are projected to remain relatively high through much of the year as strong export demand competes with domestic needs. As a result, CCC net removals of nonfat dry milk are forecast lower than last month. Class III prices are forecast higher this month at $13.40 to $13.90 per cwt and Class IV prices are raised to $12.30 to $13.00 per cwt. The all milk price is raised to $14.60 to $15.10 per cwt for 2004/05. COTTON: This month's U.S. 2004/05 projections include higher disappearance and lower ending stocks. Domestic mill use is raised 100,000 bales to 6.3 million bales, reflecting strong activity to date. Exports are projected at 13.0 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales from last month, based on recent strong sales and higher estimated foreign consumption and imports. Accordingly, ending stocks are reduced to 7.3 million bales, or about 38 percent of total use. World 2004/05 production, consumption, and trade are raised slightly this month, while ending stocks are reduced marginally. World production is raised about 1 percent, due mainly to an increase for India, where arrivals at gins continue substantially above year-ago levels. World consumption is raised 1.4 million bales, including increases for China, Turkey, India, and the United States. Higher consumption is boosting imports in China, Turkey, and Vietnam. World ending stocks are now projected at 46.7 million bales. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: MIKE JOHANNS SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on March 10, 2005. In 2005, the WASDE report will be released on Mar. 10, Apr. 8, May 12, June 10, July 12, Aug. 12, Sept. 12, Oct. 12, Nov. 10, and Dec. 9. USDA AGRICULTURAL BASELINE PROJECTIONS TO 2014 TO BE RELEASED FEB. 11 The World Agricultural Outlook Board will release "USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2014" after 12:00 noon Eastern Time on Friday, February 11. The report will be released in electronic form only at http://www.usda.gov/oce in Word and Acrobat format. Printed copies of the report will be available in late February. To order a printed copy, contact the National Technical Information Service, http://www.ntis.gov or 1-800-999-6779. Request "USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2014, OCE-2005-1." More information on baseline projections is available at: http://www.usda.gov/agency/oce/waob/commodity- projections/proj.htm Science, Policy, Markets What's Ahead? Count on USDA's Outlook Forum 2005 for the latest farm and commodity prospects and insight on news shaping the outlook for agriculture. Outlook sessions will feature USDA's first 2005 forecasts for planting, production, trade and prices and speakers on market developments. The program will feature the science-agriculture connection. Today as never before, science is crossing paths with farming, farm policy and the marketplace. Topics include managing risks from BSE and Avian Influenza; prospects for energy prices, ethanol and co-products; early debate over the next Farm Bill; new dietary guidelines; the future of the North American marketplace; WTO talks and the bio-safety protocol. Attendees will receive new USDA long-term commodity projections to 2014. USDA agencies will demonstrate new e-government tools for better service. Networking opportunities abound at this popular event. Register online today. For program updates, send your name and e-mail address to agforum@oce.usda.gov. www.usda.gov/oce/forum agforum@oce.usda.gov For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. Mail: Government Printing Office, Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-0001. ELECTRONIC ACCESS This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically in either ascii text format or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. Click on the "Reports by E-Mail" button to sign up for e-mail delivery of the WASDE and other USDA releases in text format. An electronic calendar of USDA release dates is posted at: http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/rptcal/calindex.htm. WASDE-419-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 1,817.28 2,353.39 241.21 1,909.80 443.60 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,852.14 2,295.74 238.40 1,946.67 349.07 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 2,014.79 2,363.09 233.67 1,987.46 375.62 February : 2,020.87 2,369.95 232.96 1,987.75 382.20 Wheat : 2002/03 : 566.96 769.03 108.48 601.41 167.62 2003/04 (Est.) : 552.83 720.45 110.25 589.48 130.97 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 620.89 751.80 107.91 606.51 145.29 February : 622.19 753.16 108.39 607.78 145.38 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 872.43 1,067.05 104.11 901.34 165.71 2003/04 (Est.) : 910.05 1,075.76 101.72 943.48 132.28 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 995.73 1,127.62 101.39 969.10 158.52 February : 996.55 1,128.83 99.64 968.77 160.05 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 377.89 517.32 28.62 407.05 110.27 2003/04 (Est.) : 389.27 499.53 26.43 413.70 85.83 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 398.16 483.67 24.37 411.85 71.81 February : 402.13 487.96 24.92 411.19 76.76 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 293.96 366.51 72.71 248.65 45.14 2003/04 (Est.) : 345.33 395.14 88.61 262.13 44.40 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 385.52 434.47 84.90 277.70 71.87 February : 385.52 434.55 84.31 277.72 72.52 Wheat : 2002/03 : 43.71 66.96 23.14 30.45 13.37 2003/04 (Est.) : 63.81 78.90 31.56 32.48 14.87 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 58.74 75.38 27.22 32.31 15.86 February : 58.74 75.38 27.90 32.31 15.18 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 243.72 291.32 45.72 214.67 30.94 2003/04 (Est.) : 275.10 308.49 53.72 226.00 28.76 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 319.45 350.57 54.35 241.48 54.74 February : 319.45 350.65 53.08 241.50 56.07 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.53 0.83 2003/04 (Est.) : 6.42 7.74 3.33 3.65 0.76 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 7.33 8.52 3.33 3.91 1.27 February : 7.33 8.52 3.33 3.91 1.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-419-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 1,523.32 1,986.89 168.50 1,661.15 398.46 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,506.81 1,900.61 149.79 1,684.54 304.68 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 1,629.27 1,928.61 148.77 1,709.76 303.75 February : 1,635.35 1,935.40 148.64 1,710.03 309.68 Wheat : 2002/03 : 523.26 702.07 85.34 570.96 154.25 2003/04 (Est.) : 489.01 641.54 78.69 557.00 116.10 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 562.16 676.42 80.70 574.20 129.44 February : 563.46 677.78 80.50 575.48 130.20 Coarse grains 5/ : 2002/03 : 628.71 775.73 58.40 686.67 134.77 2003/04 (Est.) : 634.95 767.27 48.00 717.48 103.51 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 676.28 777.04 47.04 727.62 103.78 February : 677.10 778.18 46.56 727.27 103.99 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 371.36 509.09 24.76 403.52 109.44 2003/04 (Est.) : 382.85 491.79 23.10 410.05 85.07 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 390.83 475.15 21.04 407.94 70.54 February : 394.80 479.44 21.59 407.28 75.49 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2002/03 : 88.31 137.27 30.43 98.56 38.22 2003/04 (Est.) : 94.92 133.15 33.09 98.47 35.55 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 115.64 151.25 32.60 104.43 47.12 February : 116.72 152.26 33.28 105.80 46.74 : United States 2002/03 : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.39 2003/04 (Est.) : 18.26 23.69 13.76 6.49 3.51 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 23.01 26.55 12.70 6.20 7.70 February : 23.01 26.55 13.00 6.30 7.30 : Foreign 3/ 2002/03 : 71.10 112.55 18.53 91.28 32.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 76.67 109.46 19.33 91.98 32.04 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 92.64 124.70 19.90 98.23 39.42 February : 93.71 125.71 20.28 99.50 39.44 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-419-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 329.67 368.22 70.43 267.63 45.09 2003/04 (Est.) : 337.08 382.16 66.23 278.64 43.66 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 391.42 434.94 74.04 301.79 66.19 February : 390.18 433.83 73.66 299.05 67.21 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 184.55 190.26 53.52 184.86 4.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 190.57 195.41 57.96 190.17 4.58 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 205.90 211.32 61.01 204.39 5.81 February : 203.84 208.42 59.66 201.44 4.91 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 94.73 102.98 36.09 95.46 6.68 2003/04 (Est.) : 100.82 107.50 37.66 99.21 6.69 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 106.43 113.10 39.14 104.81 6.97 February : 106.52 113.21 39.56 104.95 6.88 : : United States Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 83.94 91.36 29.43 47.49 5.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 76.60 82.94 25.12 45.53 4.15 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 96.59 101.42 28.47 49.27 13.03 February : 96.59 101.37 28.47 48.94 13.13 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 36.61 38.08 5.66 32.18 0.24 2003/04 (Est.) : 35.14 37.23 4.16 32.79 0.27 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 38.01 39.71 5.37 34.04 0.29 February : 37.74 39.44 5.37 33.77 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 9.18 12.02 1.24 9.88 0.90 2003/04 (Est.) : 8.74 11.57 0.74 10.06 0.77 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 9.46 12.10 0.82 10.41 0.86 February : 9.41 12.05 0.81 10.37 0.87 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 245.73 276.86 41.00 220.14 39.25 2003/04 (Est.) : 260.48 299.23 41.11 233.11 39.50 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 294.83 333.53 45.57 252.52 53.16 February : 293.59 332.46 45.19 250.11 54.08 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 147.94 152.18 47.87 152.68 4.60 2003/04 (Est.) : 155.43 158.18 53.80 157.38 4.31 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 167.89 171.62 55.64 170.35 5.52 February : 166.10 168.98 54.29 167.67 4.62 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 85.55 90.95 34.85 85.58 5.79 2003/04 (Est.) : 92.07 95.93 36.92 89.15 5.91 2004/05 (Proj.) : January : 96.97 101.01 38.32 94.40 6.11 February : 97.11 101.16 38.74 94.58 6.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-419-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 60.3 62.1 59.7 59.7 Harvested : 45.8 53.1 50.0 50.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.0 44.2 43.2 43.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 777 491 546 546 Production : 1,606 2,345 2,158 2,158 Imports : 77 63 65 65 Supply, total : 2,460 2,899 2,770 2,770 Food : 919 907 910 910 Seed : 84 80 77 77 Feed and residual : 116 207 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,119 1,193 1,187 1,187 Exports : 850 1,159 1,000 1,025 Use, total : 1,969 2,353 2,187 2,212 Ending stocks : 491 546 583 558 CCC inventory : 66 61 60 54 Free stocks : 425 485 523 504 Outstanding loans : 51 37 60 60 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.56 3.40 3.25- 3.45 3.30- 3.45 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2003/04 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,071 500 380 297 97 2,345 Supply, total 3/ : 1,260 654 457 383 145 2,899 Domestic use : 520 225 254 119 75 1,193 Exports : 512 272 140 192 44 1,159 Use, total : 1,033 497 393 311 119 2,353 Ending stocks, total : 227 157 64 72 26 546 : 2004/05 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 227 157 64 72 26 546 Production : 856 525 380 306 90 2,158 Supply, total 3/ : 1,084 691 461 386 146 2,770 Domestic use : 514 245 252 97 79 1,187 Exports : 377 295 130 195 28 1,025 Use, total : 891 540 382 292 107 2,212 Ending stocks, total : February : 193 151 79 94 39 558 January : 205 166 74 99 37 583 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-419-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.5 98.0 97.0 97.0 Harvested : 82.6 85.7 86.0 86.0 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.95 3.21 3.71 3.71 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.0 30.9 28.7 28.7 Production : 243.6 274.9 319.2 319.2 Imports : 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 Supply, total : 291.0 308.2 350.3 350.3 Feed and residual : 149.9 156.0 164.1 164.5 Food, seed & industrial : 64.5 69.7 77.1 76.6 Domestic, total : 214.3 225.7 241.2 241.1 Exports : 45.7 53.7 54.3 53.1 Use, total : 260.1 279.4 295.5 294.2 Ending stocks, total : 30.9 28.7 54.7 56.0 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 30.8 28.7 54.7 56.0 Outstanding loans : 7.1 4.4 8.4 8.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.9 78.6 80.9 80.9 Harvested : 69.3 70.9 73.6 73.6 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 129.3 142.2 160.4 160.4 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,596 1,087 958 958 Production : 8,967 10,089 11,807 11,807 Imports : 14 14 15 15 Supply, total : 10,578 11,190 12,780 12,780 Feed and residual : 5,563 5,798 6,075 6,075 Food, seed & industrial : 2,340 2,537 2,795 2,795 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 996 1,168 1,425 1,425 Domestic, total : 7,903 8,335 8,870 8,870 Exports : 1,588 1,897 1,950 1,900 Use, total : 9,491 10,232 10,820 10,770 Ending stocks, total : 1,087 958 1,960 2,010 CCC inventory : 4 0 1 1 Free stocks : 1,083 958 1,959 2,009 Outstanding loans : 277 164 325 325 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.32 2.42 1.80- 2.10 1.85- 2.05 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-419-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.4 7.5 7.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.1 7.8 6.5 6.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 50.6 52.7 69.8 69.8 Beginning stocks : 61 43 34 34 Production : 361 411 455 455 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 422 454 488 488 Feed and residual : 170 180 205 205 Food, seed & industrial : 24 40 50 50 Total domestic : 194 220 255 255 Exports : 184 201 175 175 Use, total : 379 421 430 430 Ending stocks, total : 43 34 58 58 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.32 2.39 1.50- 1.90 1.60- 1.80 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.3 4.5 4.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.1 4.7 4.0 4.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.0 58.9 69.4 69.4 Beginning stocks : 92 69 120 120 Production : 227 278 279 279 Imports : 18 21 20 20 Supply, total : 337 368 420 420 Feed and residual : 84 84 110 130 Food, seed & industrial : 154 146 172 150 Total domestic : 238 229 282 280 Exports : 30 19 15 15 Use, total : 268 248 297 295 Ending stocks, total : 69 120 123 125 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.72 2.83 2.40- 2.60 2.45- 2.55 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 4.6 4.1 4.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.4 65.0 64.7 64.7 Beginning stocks : 63 50 65 65 Production : 116 144 116 116 Imports : 95 90 85 85 Supply, total : 274 285 266 266 Feed and residual : 150 144 135 135 Food, seed & industrial : 72 73 74 74 Total domestic : 222 217 209 209 Exports : 3 2 3 3 Use, total : 224 220 212 212 Ending stocks, total : 50 65 54 54 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.81 1.48 1.35- 1.45 1.35- 1.45 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-419-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.24 3.02 3.35 3.35 Harvested : 3.21 3.00 3.33 3.33 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,578 6,670 6,942 6,942 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.0 26.8 23.7 23.7 Production : 211.0 199.9 230.8 230.8 Imports : 14.8 15.6 13.5 13.5 Supply, total : 264.8 242.2 268.0 268.0 Domestic & residual 3/ : 113.4 114.9 123.0 123.0 Exports, total 4/ : 124.6 103.7 105.0 105.0 Rough : 42.8 34.4 32.0 30.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.8 69.3 73.0 75.0 Use, total : 238.0 218.6 227.9 227.9 Ending stocks : 26.8 23.7 40.1 40.1 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.3 70.8 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.49 8.08 7.25- 7.55 7.25- 7.55 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.51 2.31 2.57 2.57 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,260 6,451 6,569 6,569 Beginning stocks : 26.8 15.7 10.3 10.3 Production : 157.2 149.0 168.9 168.9 Supply, total 7/ : 194.1 174.5 189.5 189.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 79.1 83.4 86.0 86.0 Exports 8/ : 99.3 80.7 80.0 81.0 Use, total : 178.4 164.2 166.0 167.0 Ending stocks : 15.7 10.3 23.5 22.5 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.69 0.75 0.75 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,729 7,407 8,212 8,212 Beginning stocks : 10.7 9.3 12.4 12.4 Production : 53.7 50.9 61.9 61.9 Supply, total 7/ : 68.9 66.8 77.5 77.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.3 31.4 37.0 37.0 Exports 8/ : 25.3 23.0 25.0 24.0 Use, total : 59.6 54.4 62.0 61.0 Ending stocks : 9.3 12.4 15.6 16.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-419-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.0 73.4 75.2 75.2 Harvested : 72.5 72.5 74.0 74.0 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.0 33.9 42.5 42.5 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 208 178 112 112 Production : 2,756 2,454 3,141 3,141 Imports : 5 6 5 5 Supply, total : 2,969 2,638 3,258 3,258 Crushings : 1,615 1,530 1,660 1,655 Exports : 1,044 885 1,010 1,010 Seed : 89 92 89 89 Residual : 42 18 64 64 Use, total : 2,791 2,525 2,823 2,818 Ending stocks : 178 112 435 440 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.53 7.34 4.75- 5.45 4.80 - 5.40 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,358 1,491 1,076 1,076 Production : 18,430 17,080 18,760 18,770 Imports : 46 306 105 105 Supply, total : 20,835 18,877 19,941 19,951 Domestic : 17,081 16,866 17,300 17,300 Exports : 2,263 935 1,300 1,300 Use, total : 19,344 17,801 18,600 18,600 Ending stocks : 1,491 1,076 1,341 1,351 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.04 29.97 21.50- 20.50- : 23.50 22.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 240 220 211 211 Production : 38,194 36,324 39,474 39,274 Imports : 166 270 165 165 Supply, total : 38,600 36,815 39,850 39,650 Domestic : 32,361 32,260 33,900 33,700 Exports : 6,019 4,344 5,700 5,700 Use, total : 38,380 36,604 39,600 39,400 Ending stocks : 220 211 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 181.57 256.05 150.00- 150.00- : 165.00 165.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-419-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :===================== : : Estimate : January February ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,528 1,670 1,897 1,897 Production 2/ : 8,426 8,649 8,143 8,117 Beet sugar : 4,462 4,692 4,705 4,699 Cane sugar 3/ : 3,964 3,957 3,438 3,418 Imports : 1,730 1,750 1,639 1,639 TRQ 4/ : 1,210 1,226 1,229 1,229 Other program 5/ : 488 464 350 350 Other 6/ : 32 60 60 60 Supply, total : 11,684 12,069 11,679 11,653 : Exports : 142 288 200 200 Deliveries : 9,712 9,862 9,905 9,905 Food : 9,504 9,678 9,715 9,715 Other 7/ : 208 184 190 190 Miscellaneous 8/ : 160 22 0 0 Use, total : 10,014 10,172 10,105 10,105 Ending stocks : 1,670 1,897 1,574 1,548 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.7 18.6 15.6 15.3 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production for 2004/05 is based on processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Other projections are based on analyses the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 3/ Production by state for 2003/04 (projected 2004/05): FL 2,154 (1,689); HI 251 (259); LA 1,377 (1,290); TX 175 (180). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2004/05, includes shortfall of 50,000 tons. 5/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/ Includes high-tier and other. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 8/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- Metric-Ton Equivalent : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-419-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.96 13.48 13.66 13.66 Harvested : 12.42 12.00 13.06 13.06 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 665 730 846 846 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 7.45 5.39 3.51 3.51 Production : 17.21 18.26 23.01 23.01 Imports : 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 24.72 23.69 26.55 26.55 Domestic use : 7.27 6.49 6.20 6.30 Exports : 11.90 13.76 12.70 13.00 Use, total : 19.17 20.25 18.90 19.30 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.17 -0.07 -0.05 -0.05 Ending stocks : 5.39 3.51 7.70 7.30 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 44.5 61.8 46.0 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August-December 2004. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2004/05 is 38.6 percent. WASDE-419-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 202.06 566.96 107.80 112.58 601.41 108.48 167.62 United States : 21.15 43.71 2.11 3.15 30.45 23.14 13.37 Total foreign : 180.92 523.26 105.69 109.43 570.96 85.34 154.25 Major exporters 4/ : 30.84 163.11 14.60 66.94 136.07 45.25 27.23 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.16 6.76 1.53 Australia : 8.05 10.13 0.29 3.45 6.18 9.15 3.14 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.38 4.06 8.18 9.40 5.73 EU-25 5/ : 14.92 124.48 13.92 59.36 116.55 19.94 16.83 Major importers 6/ : 96.57 143.51 54.36 11.38 210.37 5.20 78.87 Brazil : 0.90 2.93 6.73 0.45 9.89 0.01 0.66 China : 76.59 90.29 0.42 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.38 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.67 16.64 10.27 1.55 26.24 0.50 6.85 N. Africa 8/ : 5.61 11.70 18.71 0.30 29.67 0.40 5.96 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.19 0.40 18.38 1.19 1.44 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.65 0.00 9.30 1.63 9.06 0.33 1.57 Selected other : India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.29 4.85 15.70 FSU-12 : 16.64 96.95 4.10 23.91 73.64 25.82 18.23 Russia : 6.48 50.55 1.05 16.00 39.32 12.62 6.13 Kazakhstan : 4.70 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 6.24 5.42 Ukraine : 2.96 20.56 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.26 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 167.62 552.83 102.81 98.88 589.48 110.25 130.97 United States : 13.37 63.81 1.72 5.64 32.48 31.56 14.87 Total foreign : 154.25 489.01 101.10 93.25 557.00 78.69 116.10 Major exporters 4/ : 27.23 169.90 6.22 59.52 127.77 54.16 21.41 Argentina : 1.53 13.50 0.00 0.08 5.23 9.41 0.40 Australia : 3.14 26.23 0.07 3.23 5.96 18.03 5.46 Canada : 5.73 23.55 0.23 3.46 7.66 15.79 6.06 EU-25 5/ : 16.83 106.61 5.91 52.75 108.93 10.93 9.50 Major importers 6/ : 78.87 148.41 52.40 10.07 210.62 6.83 62.24 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.18 0.20 9.80 1.40 0.49 China : 60.38 86.49 3.75 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.85 16.78 8.11 1.30 25.78 1.00 4.96 N. Africa 8/ : 5.96 16.34 15.83 0.30 30.43 0.18 7.52 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.58 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 10.09 1.32 9.17 0.32 2.18 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.01 0.60 68.26 5.65 6.90 FSU-12 : 18.23 61.41 7.06 17.38 65.60 8.24 12.86 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.03 12.50 35.50 3.11 2.65 Kazakhstan : 5.42 11.50 0.01 2.70 6.80 4.50 5.64 Ukraine : 3.26 3.60 3.37 0.23 9.03 0.07 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-419-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 130.91 620.89 104.26 108.90 606.51 107.91 145.29 February : 130.97 622.19 105.06 110.00 607.78 108.39 145.38 United States : January : 14.87 58.74 1.77 5.44 32.31 27.22 15.86 February : 14.87 58.74 1.77 5.44 32.31 27.90 15.18 Total foreign : January : 116.04 562.16 102.49 103.46 574.20 80.70 129.44 February : 116.10 563.46 103.29 104.56 575.48 80.50 130.20 Major exporters 4/ : January : 21.61 200.07 5.29 67.98 137.03 57.50 32.44 February : 21.41 200.07 5.79 67.98 137.03 58.00 32.24 Argentina Jan : 0.76 16.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 10.00 1.29 Feb : 0.40 16.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 10.50 0.43 Australia Jan : 5.46 21.50 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 4.43 Feb : 5.46 21.50 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 4.43 Canada Jan : 6.06 25.85 0.20 5.00 9.20 15.50 7.41 Feb : 6.06 25.85 0.20 5.00 9.20 15.50 7.41 EU-25 5/ Jan : 9.33 136.73 5.00 60.00 116.75 15.00 19.31 Feb : 9.50 136.73 5.50 60.00 116.75 15.00 19.97 Major importers 6/ : January : 62.08 152.25 60.20 8.41 211.26 3.18 60.10 February : 62.24 152.25 60.20 8.41 211.26 3.18 60.26 Brazil Jan : 0.49 5.80 5.00 0.30 10.10 0.20 0.99 Feb : 0.49 5.80 5.00 0.30 10.10 0.20 0.99 China Jan : 43.29 90.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.29 Feb : 43.29 90.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.29 Sel. Mideast 7/Jan : 4.86 17.66 9.95 1.50 26.49 0.60 5.38 Feb : 4.96 17.66 9.95 1.50 26.49 0.60 5.48 N. Africa 8/ Jan : 7.52 16.48 16.40 0.30 31.63 0.26 8.51 Feb : 7.52 16.48 16.40 0.30 31.63 0.26 8.51 Pakistan Jan : 1.58 19.00 1.50 0.40 19.50 0.05 2.53 Feb : 1.58 19.00 1.50 0.40 19.50 0.05 2.53 SE Asia 9/ Jan : 2.11 0.00 9.75 1.38 9.45 0.32 2.09 Feb : 2.18 0.00 9.75 1.38 9.45 0.32 2.16 Selected other : India Jan : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 71.98 1.50 5.50 Feb : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 71.98 1.50 5.50 FSU-12 Jan : 12.86 85.63 4.34 20.01 71.77 13.76 17.30 Feb : 12.86 86.38 4.44 21.01 72.97 13.26 17.46 Russia Jan : 2.65 44.50 1.50 13.50 37.50 6.00 5.15 Feb : 2.65 45.30 1.50 14.00 38.00 6.00 5.45 Kazakhstan Jan : 5.64 10.00 0.02 1.80 6.50 4.00 5.15 Feb : 5.64 9.95 0.02 2.30 7.00 3.50 5.10 Ukraine Jan : 1.13 17.50 0.50 2.50 12.50 3.50 3.13 Feb : 1.13 17.50 0.50 2.50 12.50 3.50 3.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-419-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 194.62 872.43 103.06 596.53 901.34 104.11 165.71 United States : 45.04 243.72 2.57 149.97 214.67 45.72 30.94 Total foreign : 149.59 628.71 100.49 446.56 686.67 58.40 134.77 Major exporters 4/ : 8.44 56.12 4.86 31.74 44.47 16.98 7.97 Argentina : 0.96 19.45 0.00 5.12 7.33 11.94 1.14 Australia : 1.99 6.65 0.01 3.98 5.26 2.20 1.20 Canada : 3.52 19.89 4.24 18.45 22.81 1.70 3.14 Major importers 5/ : 35.78 203.62 78.46 201.92 270.64 10.14 37.07 EU-25 6/ : 21.07 137.73 6.35 102.44 135.81 8.63 20.71 Japan : 2.34 0.22 20.32 15.65 20.48 0.00 2.40 Mexico : 4.27 26.49 8.75 19.58 35.62 0.01 3.89 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.55 23.59 25.16 39.51 45.92 0.96 6.41 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.15 4.15 13.44 18.75 0.55 1.06 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.89 6.64 9.15 0.00 1.29 Selected other : China : 85.55 130.73 1.83 98.43 136.40 15.34 66.37 Other Europe : 2.25 22.33 1.02 17.25 21.00 1.49 3.11 FSU-12 : 11.45 60.74 0.91 35.00 52.80 8.09 12.22 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.30 29.85 3.44 7.20 Ukraine : 2.61 17.11 0.43 9.30 13.26 3.99 2.90 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 165.71 910.05 100.27 616.46 943.48 101.72 132.28 United States : 30.94 275.10 2.45 156.07 226.00 53.72 28.76 Total foreign : 134.77 634.95 97.82 460.38 717.48 48.00 103.51 Major exporters 4/ : 7.97 69.20 2.56 33.78 46.87 22.26 10.60 Argentina : 1.14 17.70 0.02 4.75 7.01 10.62 1.24 Australia : 1.20 14.81 0.00 5.46 6.69 7.18 2.14 Canada : 3.14 26.33 2.11 19.24 23.84 3.64 4.10 Major importers 5/ : 37.07 195.21 77.44 204.85 273.73 5.44 30.53 EU-25 6/ : 20.71 122.39 7.98 102.01 135.31 4.33 11.43 Japan : 2.40 0.20 19.98 15.61 20.44 0.00 2.15 Mexico : 3.89 30.10 8.85 21.18 37.24 0.01 5.59 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 6.41 26.50 22.90 41.84 48.64 0.32 6.85 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.65 3.68 12.86 18.17 0.79 1.43 South Korea : 1.29 0.30 8.99 6.77 9.00 0.00 1.57 Selected other : China : 66.37 124.64 1.53 100.51 140.05 7.72 44.76 Other Europe : 3.11 18.08 1.31 16.91 20.71 0.30 1.49 FSU-12 : 12.22 55.32 1.65 39.24 56.91 6.04 6.24 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.95 21.53 33.25 2.47 2.93 Ukraine : 2.90 15.60 0.33 10.50 14.10 2.77 1.95 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-419-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 131.89 995.73 97.36 635.28 969.10 101.39 158.52 February : 132.28 996.55 96.89 637.00 968.77 99.64 160.05 United States : January : 28.76 319.45 2.36 164.16 241.48 54.35 54.74 February : 28.76 319.45 2.43 164.66 241.50 53.08 56.07 Total foreign : January : 103.12 676.28 95.01 471.12 727.62 47.04 103.78 February : 103.51 677.10 94.46 472.34 727.27 46.56 103.99 Major exporters 4/ : January : 10.60 68.27 2.69 34.18 47.81 21.38 12.37 February : 10.60 68.97 2.49 34.08 47.81 22.41 11.85 Argentina Jan : 1.24 21.00 0.01 5.23 7.64 13.11 1.50 Feb : 1.24 21.70 0.01 5.33 7.84 13.61 1.50 Australia Jan : 2.14 10.56 0.00 5.41 6.69 3.82 2.19 Feb : 2.14 10.56 0.00 5.41 6.69 4.32 1.69 Canada Jan : 4.10 26.54 2.25 19.23 24.13 3.43 5.32 Feb : 4.10 26.54 2.05 19.03 23.93 3.45 5.30 Major importers 5/ : January : 30.25 220.66 73.95 210.51 280.92 5.54 38.40 February : 30.53 220.94 73.70 210.51 280.92 5.54 38.70 EU-25 6/ Jan : 11.20 148.74 3.06 104.74 138.83 4.86 19.32 Feb : 11.43 148.82 3.01 104.74 138.83 4.86 19.58 Japan Jan : 2.15 0.24 19.99 15.41 20.24 0.00 2.14 Feb : 2.15 0.24 19.99 15.41 20.24 0.00 2.14 Mexico Jan : 5.59 28.30 9.45 22.62 38.77 0.01 4.56 Feb : 5.59 28.30 9.45 22.62 38.77 0.01 4.56 N Afr/M.East 7/Jan : 6.85 26.95 24.32 43.13 50.25 0.15 7.72 Feb : 6.85 26.95 24.32 43.13 50.25 0.15 7.72 S.-east Asia 8/Jan : 1.38 16.02 3.59 13.47 18.93 0.53 1.53 Feb : 1.43 16.22 3.39 13.47 18.93 0.53 1.58 South Korea Jan : 1.57 0.34 8.71 6.64 9.04 0.00 1.57 Feb : 1.57 0.34 8.71 6.64 9.04 0.00 1.57 Selected other : China Jan : 44.77 135.35 2.01 102.30 144.00 4.08 34.05 Feb : 44.76 135.35 2.01 102.30 144.00 4.08 34.04 Other Europe Jan : 1.38 28.60 0.88 18.98 24.22 2.70 3.94 Feb : 1.49 28.60 0.88 18.98 24.22 2.50 4.25 FSU-12 Jan : 6.24 62.32 1.47 37.32 54.76 7.54 7.74 Feb : 6.24 62.66 1.37 38.64 55.68 6.84 7.76 Russia Jan : 2.93 29.90 1.10 18.30 29.10 1.70 3.13 Feb : 2.93 29.55 1.00 19.10 29.45 1.20 2.83 Ukraine Jan : 1.95 22.90 0.07 11.90 16.15 5.66 3.12 Feb : 1.95 23.00 0.07 11.90 16.20 5.46 3.37 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-419-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 148.05 601.51 76.86 434.80 627.00 78.18 122.56 United States : 40.55 227.77 0.37 141.30 200.75 40.33 27.60 Total foreign : 107.50 373.74 76.49 293.50 426.25 37.85 94.95 Major exporters 4/ : 2.27 25.18 0.44 6.50 12.52 12.30 3.07 Argentina : 0.33 15.50 0.00 2.50 4.00 11.20 0.63 South Africa : 1.94 9.68 0.44 4.00 8.52 1.10 2.44 Major importers 5/ : 11.25 89.61 48.92 93.88 133.92 2.52 13.35 Egypt : 0.25 6.00 4.85 9.10 10.90 0.00 0.20 EU-25 6/ : 2.66 49.36 4.33 38.66 49.53 2.00 4.83 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.86 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.46 Mexico : 3.40 19.28 5.27 9.50 24.70 0.01 3.24 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.05 14.85 4.15 13.20 18.50 0.51 1.04 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.57 8.75 0.00 1.29 Selected other : Brazil : 0.72 44.50 0.79 34.00 37.50 4.63 3.88 Canada : 1.06 9.00 3.95 10.28 12.58 0.31 1.11 China : 84.79 121.30 0.03 96.00 125.90 15.24 64.97 Other Europe : 1.76 17.77 0.54 14.27 16.74 0.74 2.58 FSU-12 : 1.56 8.54 0.20 6.44 7.92 0.85 1.53 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.11 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.56 621.88 76.80 446.75 646.77 75.38 97.67 United States : 27.60 256.28 0.36 147.27 211.72 48.18 24.34 Total foreign : 94.95 365.60 76.45 299.48 435.05 27.20 73.33 Major exporters 4/ : 3.07 23.70 0.31 6.60 12.70 11.05 3.33 Argentina : 0.63 14.00 0.01 2.50 4.00 10.25 0.39 South Africa : 2.44 9.70 0.30 4.10 8.70 0.80 2.94 Major importers 5/ : 13.35 83.49 49.17 91.36 131.23 1.17 13.60 Egypt : 0.20 6.15 3.74 8.10 9.90 0.00 0.19 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 40.05 5.60 36.01 46.81 0.40 3.26 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.78 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 3.24 21.80 5.71 11.20 26.40 0.01 4.34 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.04 15.37 3.66 12.60 17.90 0.77 1.39 South Korea : 1.29 0.07 8.78 6.60 8.57 0.00 1.57 Selected other : Brazil : 3.88 42.00 0.35 35.00 38.80 4.00 3.43 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.04 8.74 11.24 0.37 1.14 China : 64.97 115.83 0.00 98.00 129.40 7.55 43.85 Other Europe : 2.58 14.35 0.83 13.98 16.51 0.28 0.98 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.54 0.64 9.56 11.05 1.26 1.40 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-419-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 97.38 700.57 74.31 467.86 682.99 77.55 114.96 February : 97.67 701.82 73.71 468.01 682.22 76.08 117.27 United States : January : 24.34 299.92 0.38 154.31 225.31 49.53 49.79 February : 24.34 299.92 0.38 154.31 225.31 48.26 51.06 Total foreign : January : 73.05 400.65 73.93 313.54 457.68 28.02 65.17 February : 73.33 401.90 73.33 313.69 456.91 27.82 66.20 Major exporters 4/ : January : 3.33 26.70 0.26 6.80 13.00 13.50 3.79 February : 3.33 27.20 0.26 6.80 13.00 14.00 3.79 Argentina Jan : 0.39 17.00 0.01 2.70 4.30 12.50 0.60 Feb : 0.39 17.50 0.01 2.70 4.30 13.00 0.60 South Africa Jan : 2.94 9.70 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 3.19 Feb : 2.94 9.70 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 3.19 Major importers 5/ : January : 13.43 95.54 46.16 98.40 139.32 1.01 14.79 February : 13.60 96.24 45.96 98.40 139.32 1.01 15.46 Egypt Jan : 0.19 6.20 4.30 8.60 10.50 0.00 0.19 Feb : 0.19 6.20 4.30 8.60 10.50 0.00 0.19 EU-25 6/ Jan : 3.14 52.48 2.50 41.30 52.70 0.50 4.92 Feb : 3.26 52.98 2.50 41.30 52.70 0.50 5.54 Japan Jan : 1.34 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.34 Feb : 1.34 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.34 Mexico Jan : 4.34 21.00 5.80 12.10 27.40 0.01 3.73 Feb : 4.34 21.00 5.80 12.10 27.40 0.01 3.73 S.-east Asia 7/Jan : 1.34 15.74 3.56 13.20 18.65 0.50 1.49 Feb : 1.39 15.94 3.36 13.20 18.65 0.50 1.54 South Korea Jan : 1.57 0.07 8.50 6.50 8.57 0.00 1.57 Feb : 1.57 0.07 8.50 6.50 8.57 0.00 1.57 Selected other : Brazil Jan : 3.43 42.00 0.30 36.20 40.00 4.00 1.73 Feb : 3.43 41.50 0.30 36.20 40.00 3.50 1.73 Canada Jan : 1.14 8.85 2.20 7.90 10.60 0.30 1.29 Feb : 1.14 8.85 2.00 7.70 10.40 0.30 1.29 China Jan : 43.85 126.00 0.20 100.00 133.00 4.00 33.05 Feb : 43.85 126.00 0.20 100.00 133.00 4.00 33.05 Other Europe Jan : 0.86 23.32 0.44 15.63 19.32 1.90 3.40 Feb : 0.98 23.32 0.44 15.63 19.32 1.90 3.52 FSU-12 Jan : 1.40 14.55 0.78 11.02 12.71 2.03 1.99 Feb : 1.40 15.10 0.58 11.37 13.01 1.83 2.24 Russia Jan : 0.16 3.00 0.60 2.80 3.40 0.00 0.36 Feb : 0.16 3.45 0.40 3.10 3.65 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-419-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 3/ : 139.43 377.89 26.18 407.05 28.62 110.27 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.53 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 138.21 371.36 25.71 403.52 24.76 109.44 Major exporters 4/ : 31.29 115.90 0.04 110.65 18.78 17.81 India : 24.48 72.70 0.00 80.74 5.44 11.00 Pakistan : 0.20 4.48 0.00 2.65 1.99 0.05 Thailand : 3.12 17.20 0.00 9.46 7.55 3.30 Vietnam : 3.49 21.53 0.04 17.80 3.80 3.47 Major importers 5/ : 12.40 55.23 11.98 67.04 0.33 12.24 Brazil : 0.54 7.05 1.12 8.10 0.02 0.59 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.73 1.20 2.60 0.25 0.96 Indonesia : 4.68 33.41 2.75 36.50 0.00 4.34 Nigeria : 1.01 2.20 1.90 3.75 0.00 1.35 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.50 2.00 2.51 5.05 0.06 0.89 Selected other : Burma : 0.93 10.79 0.00 10.10 0.39 1.23 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.10 0.09 0.44 0.47 0.00 0.15 China : 82.17 122.18 0.26 134.80 2.58 67.22 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.58 0.77 Japan : 2.69 8.09 0.63 8.74 0.20 2.47 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.54 0.70 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 1.57 4.93 0.13 5.03 0.57 1.03 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 3/ : 110.27 389.27 24.42 413.70 26.43 85.83 United States : 0.83 6.42 0.50 3.65 3.33 0.76 Total foreign : 109.44 382.85 23.93 410.05 23.10 85.07 Major exporters 4/ : 17.81 131.99 0.04 114.72 18.86 16.26 India : 11.00 87.00 0.00 84.35 2.75 10.90 Pakistan : 0.05 4.90 0.00 2.70 1.78 0.47 Thailand : 3.30 18.01 0.00 9.47 10.14 1.71 Vietnam : 3.47 22.08 0.04 18.20 4.20 3.19 Major importers 5/ : 12.24 59.22 9.59 68.10 0.34 12.61 Brazil : 0.59 8.71 0.65 8.50 0.05 1.39 EU-25 6/ : 0.96 1.72 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.97 Indonesia : 4.34 35.02 0.70 36.00 0.00 4.07 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 1.15 Philippines : 3.81 9.00 1.29 10.25 0.00 3.85 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.89 2.28 3.15 5.28 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.13 1.63 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.09 0.33 0.47 0.00 0.10 China : 67.22 112.46 1.13 135.00 0.88 44.93 Egypt : 0.77 4.03 0.00 3.30 0.78 0.72 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.55 0.73 0.00 0.19 South Korea : 1.03 4.45 0.18 4.87 0.20 0.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-419-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 85.50 398.16 24.53 411.85 24.37 71.81 February : 85.83 402.13 25.14 411.19 24.92 76.76 United States : January : 0.76 7.33 0.43 3.91 3.33 1.27 February : 0.76 7.33 0.43 3.91 3.33 1.27 Total foreign : January : 84.74 390.83 24.10 407.94 21.04 70.54 February : 85.07 394.80 24.71 407.28 21.59 75.49 Major exporters 4/ : January : 16.29 126.90 0.04 113.23 16.75 13.25 February : 16.26 130.54 0.04 113.23 17.60 16.01 India Jan : 10.90 83.00 0.00 82.40 2.60 8.90 Feb : 10.90 86.00 0.00 82.40 2.90 11.60 Pakistan Jan : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72 Feb : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72 Thailand Jan : 1.84 17.40 0.00 9.48 8.25 1.51 Feb : 1.71 17.40 0.00 9.48 8.50 1.13 Vietnam Jan : 3.07 21.50 0.04 18.60 3.90 2.11 Feb : 3.19 22.14 0.04 18.60 4.20 2.56 Major importers 5/ : January : 12.61 58.81 9.73 68.50 0.34 12.30 February : 12.61 59.11 9.93 68.50 0.34 12.80 Brazil Jan : 1.39 7.90 0.75 8.65 0.03 1.37 Feb : 1.39 8.20 0.60 8.65 0.03 1.52 EU-25 6/ Jan : 0.97 1.83 1.00 2.53 0.25 1.02 Feb : 0.97 1.83 1.00 2.53 0.25 1.02 Indonesia Jan : 4.07 34.99 1.00 35.85 0.00 4.21 Feb : 4.07 34.99 1.00 35.85 0.00 4.21 Nigeria Jan : 1.15 2.30 1.35 4.25 0.00 0.55 Feb : 1.15 2.30 1.35 4.25 0.00 0.55 Philippines Jan : 3.85 9.20 0.90 10.30 0.00 3.65 Feb : 3.85 9.20 1.25 10.30 0.00 4.00 Sel. Mideast 7/Jan : 0.99 2.30 3.65 5.50 0.06 1.38 Feb : 0.99 2.30 3.65 5.50 0.06 1.38 Selected other : Burma Jan : 1.63 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.30 1.18 Feb : 1.63 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.30 1.18 C. Am & Car. 8/Jan : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.09 Feb : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.09 China Jan : 44.56 126.00 0.60 135.70 0.80 34.66 Feb : 44.93 126.00 0.90 135.10 0.50 36.23 Egypt Jan : 0.72 4.23 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.92 Feb : 0.72 4.23 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.92 Japan Jan : 1.70 7.95 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.85 Feb : 1.70 7.95 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.85 Mexico Jan : 0.19 0.18 0.53 0.80 0.00 0.10 Feb : 0.19 0.18 0.53 0.80 0.00 0.10 South Korea Jan : 0.59 5.00 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.95 Feb : 0.59 5.00 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.95 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-419-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World : 48.97 88.31 30.18 98.56 30.43 0.25 38.22 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.39 Total foreign : 41.52 71.10 30.11 91.28 18.53 0.08 32.84 Major exporters 4/ : 11.27 24.22 1.44 14.06 14.23 0.01 8.63 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.40 0.23 0.03 2.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.98 6.88 3/ 1.77 5.34 0.00 1.75 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 4.13 3/ 0.21 3.81 0.05 1.54 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.00 2.71 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.97 Australia : 2.31 1.68 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.31 Major importers : 28.06 43.79 23.84 70.55 3.18 0.06 21.88 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.60 0.49 -0.10 2.88 India : 5.13 10.60 1.22 13.30 0.06 0.00 3.59 Mexico : 0.72 0.21 2.30 2.10 0.07 0.03 1.03 China : 13.81 22.60 3.13 29.90 0.75 0.00 8.88 EU-25 8/ : 1.74 2.16 3.92 4.83 1.44 0.06 1.48 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.56 4.18 2.27 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.39 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.46 0.16 8.79 8.87 0.06 0.08 2.41 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.23 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.40 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.95 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World : 38.22 94.92 33.92 98.47 33.09 -0.04 35.55 United States : 5.39 18.26 0.05 6.49 13.76 -0.07 3.51 Total foreign : 32.84 76.67 33.88 91.98 19.33 0.03 32.04 Major exporters 4/ : 8.63 24.77 2.63 14.31 13.87 -0.04 7.88 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.75 6.74 0.01 1.82 4.99 0.00 1.69 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.44 3/ 0.20 4.49 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis. 7/ : 1.97 3.39 0.40 1.07 2.94 -0.08 1.83 Australia : 1.31 1.70 3/ 0.08 2.16 -0.10 0.87 Major importers : 21.88 48.52 26.64 71.02 4.01 0.06 21.94 Brazil : 2.88 5.85 0.55 3.80 0.96 -0.10 4.61 India : 3.59 13.80 0.80 13.50 0.63 0.00 4.06 Mexico : 1.03 0.36 1.86 2.00 0.12 0.03 1.10 China : 8.88 22.30 8.83 32.00 0.17 0.00 7.84 EU-25 8/ : 1.48 1.96 3.09 3.81 1.71 0.06 0.95 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.39 4.10 2.37 6.20 0.36 0.00 1.31 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.41 0.15 7.66 8.21 0.07 0.08 1.87 Indonesia : 0.40 0.04 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.60 0.06 1.68 1.93 0.00 0.03 0.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-419-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World : January : 35.61 115.64 32.91 104.43 32.60 0.00 47.12 February : 35.55 116.72 33.56 105.80 33.28 0.00 46.74 United States : January : 3.51 23.01 0.04 6.20 12.70 -0.05 7.70 February : 3.51 23.01 0.04 6.30 13.00 -0.05 7.30 Total foreign : January : 32.10 92.64 32.87 98.23 19.90 0.05 39.42 February : 32.04 93.71 33.52 99.50 20.28 0.05 39.44 Major exporters 4/ : January : 7.88 31.75 1.64 15.09 13.96 -0.04 12.25 February : 7.88 31.80 1.66 15.09 14.04 -0.04 12.24 Pakistan Jan : 2.03 11.50 1.00 10.20 0.60 0.03 3.71 Feb : 2.03 11.50 1.00 10.20 0.60 0.03 3.71 Central Asia 5/Jan : 1.69 7.85 3/ 1.96 5.33 0.00 2.24 Feb : 1.69 7.85 3/ 1.96 5.31 0.00 2.26 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jan : 1.28 4.72 3/ 0.20 4.01 0.00 1.79 Feb : 1.28 4.72 3/ 0.20 4.01 0.00 1.79 S. Hemis 7/ Jan : 1.83 4.33 0.26 1.06 2.60 -0.08 2.84 Feb : 1.83 4.43 0.26 1.06 2.65 -0.08 2.89 Australia Jan : 0.87 2.50 3/ 0.07 1.70 -0.10 1.71 Feb : 0.87 2.60 3/ 0.07 1.75 -0.10 1.76 Major importers Jan : 22.04 57.31 26.59 76.59 4.66 0.06 24.63 Feb : 21.94 58.18 27.24 77.84 4.86 0.06 24.61 Brazil Jan : 4.61 5.85 0.35 4.10 2.00 -0.10 4.81 Feb : 4.61 5.85 0.33 4.10 2.00 -0.10 4.79 India Jan : 4.06 15.20 0.65 14.50 0.60 0.00 4.81 Feb : 4.06 16.00 0.60 14.60 0.80 0.00 5.26 Mexico Jan : 1.10 0.55 1.60 2.00 0.20 0.03 1.03 Feb : 1.10 0.63 1.60 2.00 0.20 0.03 1.10 China Jan : 7.84 29.00 8.75 36.75 0.15 0.00 8.69 Feb : 7.84 29.00 9.00 37.50 0.15 0.00 8.19 EU-25 8/ Jan : 0.95 2.30 2.89 3.41 1.40 0.06 1.26 Feb : 0.95 2.30 2.89 3.41 1.40 0.06 1.27 Russia Jan : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Feb : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Jan : 1.41 4.25 2.35 6.20 0.25 0.00 1.56 Feb : 1.31 4.25 2.70 6.50 0.25 0.00 1.51 Sel. Asia 9/ Jan : 1.87 0.16 8.53 8.18 0.06 0.08 2.24 Feb : 1.87 0.16 8.65 8.28 0.06 0.08 2.27 Indonesia Jan : 0.37 0.04 2.30 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.44 Feb : 0.37 0.04 2.30 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand Jan : 0.38 0.06 2.20 2.03 0.01 0.03 0.59 Feb : 0.38 0.06 2.20 2.03 0.01 0.03 0.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-419-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 33.19 197.12 62.67 164.89 190.64 61.69 40.65 United States : 5.66 75.01 0.13 43.95 47.52 28.42 4.85 Total foreign : 27.53 122.11 62.55 120.94 143.12 33.27 35.80 Major exporters 3/ : 22.36 92.00 1.71 51.90 55.94 31.65 28.49 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.38 23.53 24.86 8.71 12.47 Brazil : 12.11 52.00 1.32 27.17 29.76 19.73 15.93 Major importers 4/ : 4.28 18.79 51.34 53.57 67.66 0.31 6.44 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.54 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-25 : 1.06 0.89 16.87 16.29 17.87 0.02 0.93 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.71 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 40.65 189.81 54.03 164.28 190.45 55.18 38.86 United States : 4.85 66.78 0.15 41.63 44.63 24.09 3.06 Total foreign : 35.80 123.03 53.88 122.65 145.82 31.09 35.80 Major exporters 3/ : 28.49 90.60 0.88 55.72 60.37 28.79 30.80 Argentina : 12.47 34.00 0.54 25.04 26.62 6.71 13.68 Brazil : 15.93 52.60 0.33 29.33 32.24 19.82 16.80 Major importers 4/ : 6.44 17.51 43.64 49.31 63.44 0.34 3.82 China : 4.47 15.40 16.93 25.44 34.38 0.32 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.71 14.63 14.20 15.53 0.01 0.74 Japan : 0.71 0.23 4.69 3.66 4.97 0.00 0.65 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 3.80 3.89 3.93 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 38.86 230.77 62.22 178.72 208.31 62.74 60.80 February : 38.86 228.62 61.98 176.03 205.41 62.72 61.35 United States : January : 3.06 85.48 0.14 45.18 49.35 27.49 11.84 February : 3.06 85.48 0.14 45.04 49.21 27.49 11.98 Total foreign : January : 35.80 145.28 62.08 133.54 158.96 35.25 48.96 February : 35.80 143.14 61.84 130.99 156.19 35.23 49.37 Major exporters 3/ : January : 30.82 108.50 0.83 60.27 65.47 32.72 41.96 February : 30.80 107.00 0.84 58.21 63.42 32.72 42.50 Argentina Jan : 13.68 39.00 0.50 26.20 27.77 7.67 17.74 Feb : 13.68 39.00 0.50 25.84 27.41 7.67 18.10 Brazil Jan : 16.80 64.50 0.33 32.44 35.87 22.30 23.46 Feb : 16.80 63.00 0.33 30.74 34.17 22.30 23.66 Major importers 4/ : January : 3.82 20.31 50.76 53.69 69.02 0.30 5.57 February : 3.82 20.32 50.56 53.55 68.83 0.28 5.58 China Jan : 2.10 18.00 22.00 28.25 38.15 0.25 3.70 Feb : 2.10 18.00 22.50 28.75 38.65 0.25 3.70 EU-25 Jan : 0.74 0.80 15.86 15.10 16.52 0.03 0.85 Feb : 0.74 0.80 15.66 14.90 16.30 0.01 0.89 Japan Jan : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.89 5.26 0.00 0.67 Feb : 0.65 0.28 4.70 3.65 4.99 0.00 0.64 Mexico Jan : 0.04 0.13 4.40 4.49 4.53 0.00 0.04 Feb : 0.04 0.13 4.10 4.19 4.23 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-419-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 4.15 129.95 41.86 129.95 42.24 3.76 United States : 0.22 34.65 0.15 29.36 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.93 95.30 41.71 100.60 36.78 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : 1.09 42.67 0.32 9.75 33.44 0.89 Argentina : 0.30 18.59 0.00 0.23 18.46 0.20 Brazil : 0.75 21.35 0.32 8.02 13.75 0.64 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.50 1.23 0.05 Major importers 4/ : 1.38 35.85 25.64 60.51 1.17 1.20 EU-25 : 1.05 12.83 20.33 32.99 0.34 0.87 China : 0.00 21.00 0.00 20.21 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.76 129.42 44.37 129.37 44.67 3.51 United States : 0.20 32.95 0.25 29.27 3.94 0.19 Total foreign : 3.56 96.47 44.12 100.10 40.73 3.32 Major exporters 3/ : 0.89 46.96 0.23 9.60 37.41 1.06 Argentina : 0.20 19.76 0.00 0.37 19.34 0.25 Brazil : 0.64 22.78 0.23 8.12 14.76 0.78 India : 0.05 4.42 0.00 1.12 3.31 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.20 33.23 26.89 59.10 1.08 1.14 EU-25 : 0.87 11.18 21.86 32.67 0.39 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.02 19.56 0.65 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 4.36 141.07 47.76 140.11 48.33 4.74 February : 3.51 138.86 45.55 137.18 46.90 3.85 United States : January : 0.19 35.81 0.15 30.75 5.17 0.23 February : 0.19 35.63 0.15 30.57 5.17 0.23 Total foreign : January : 4.17 105.26 47.61 109.36 43.16 4.52 February : 3.32 103.23 45.40 106.60 41.73 3.62 Major exporters 3/ : January : 1.91 50.79 0.15 11.28 39.42 2.15 February : 1.06 48.94 0.15 11.00 37.89 1.26 Argentina Jan : 0.25 20.75 0.00 0.29 20.31 0.40 Feb : 0.25 20.39 0.00 0.35 19.94 0.35 Brazil Jan : 1.62 25.29 0.15 8.36 17.01 1.70 Feb : 0.78 24.13 0.15 8.36 15.85 0.85 India Jan : 0.04 4.75 0.00 2.63 2.10 0.05 Feb : 0.04 4.42 0.00 2.30 2.10 0.05 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.14 36.10 29.32 64.27 1.17 1.12 February : 1.14 36.36 27.20 62.31 1.26 1.12 EU-25 Jan : 0.85 11.93 24.50 36.12 0.31 0.86 Feb : 0.85 11.73 22.25 33.57 0.40 0.86 China Jan : 0.00 22.40 0.07 21.65 0.82 0.00 Feb : 0.00 22.79 0.07 22.04 0.82 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-419-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 2.57 30.30 8.55 30.36 9.19 1.87 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.50 21.94 8.53 22.61 8.16 1.20 Major exporters 3/ : 0.54 12.39 0.11 5.34 7.31 0.38 Argentina : 0.13 4.38 0.00 0.12 4.34 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.11 0.07 2.99 2.27 0.10 EU-25 : 0.24 2.90 0.04 2.24 0.71 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.38 3.13 8.51 0.02 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.71 6.39 0.01 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.26 1.95 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.02 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.87 30.01 8.53 29.98 8.89 1.55 United States : 0.68 7.75 0.14 7.65 0.42 0.49 Total foreign : 1.20 22.27 8.39 22.33 8.46 1.06 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 12.68 0.09 5.12 7.67 0.36 Argentina : 0.05 4.51 0.00 0.11 4.41 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.64 0.03 2.95 2.72 0.10 EU-25 : 0.23 2.53 0.06 2.06 0.53 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.57 3.54 9.02 0.03 0.44 China : 0.25 4.54 2.73 7.17 0.02 0.33 India : 0.13 1.02 0.76 1.78 0.02 0.11 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 1.55 32.65 9.13 31.83 9.75 1.74 February : 1.55 32.21 9.17 31.81 9.47 1.65 United States : January : 0.49 8.51 0.05 7.85 0.59 0.61 February : 0.49 8.51 0.05 7.85 0.59 0.61 Total foreign : January : 1.06 24.14 9.08 23.99 9.16 1.13 February : 1.06 23.70 9.12 23.96 8.88 1.03 Major exporters 3/ : January : 0.36 13.55 0.10 5.27 8.28 0.46 February : 0.36 13.18 0.10 5.25 8.02 0.36 Argentina Jan : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Feb : 0.04 4.78 0.00 0.12 4.66 0.04 Brazil Jan : 0.10 6.03 0.05 3.06 2.96 0.15 Feb : 0.10 5.75 0.05 3.06 2.73 0.10 EU-25 Jan : 0.22 2.69 0.05 2.09 0.69 0.18 Feb : 0.22 2.65 0.05 2.07 0.63 0.23 Major importers 4/ : January : 0.44 6.14 3.55 9.71 0.03 0.40 February : 0.44 6.15 3.55 9.71 0.03 0.40 China Jan : 0.33 5.04 2.42 7.52 0.02 0.24 Feb : 0.33 5.12 2.42 7.60 0.02 0.25 India Jan : 0.11 1.10 1.05 2.10 0.01 0.15 Feb : 0.11 1.02 1.05 2.03 0.01 0.14 Pakistan Jan : 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.09 0.00 0.01 Feb : 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.09 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-419-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2003 : Annual : 26238 19945 46574 32749 5650 38902 85476 7273 170.3 : 2004 : I : 5834 5130 11061 8208 1302 9626 20687 1816 42.7 II : 6254 4897 11238 8491 1365 9982 21220 1843 43.7 III : 6360 5046 11492 8834 1387 10357 21849 1865 42.2 IV : 6096 5435 11622 8531 1389 10047 21669 1900 41.9 Annual : Jan Est : 24543 20523 45427 34083 5430 40015 85442 7423 170.9 Feb Est : 24544 20508 45413 34064 5444 40012 85425 7424 170.5 : 2005 : I*: 6050 5200 11345 8450 1325 9895 21240 1855 43.4 II*: 6725 4950 11772 8775 1400 10300 22072 1885 44.8 III*: 6925 5050 12071 9075 1400 10610 22681 1895 42.8 IV*: 6350 5475 11924 8825 1450 10400 22324 1925 42.8 Annual : Jan Proj : 26025 20725 47137 35125 5515 41135 88272 7530 174.1 Feb Proj : 26050 20675 47112 35125 5575 41205 88317 7560 173.8 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2003 : Annual : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 87.9 12.52 : 2004 : I : 82.16 44.18 73.2 62.1 114.9 14.07 II : 88.15 54.91 79.3 66.6 79.7 18.60 III : 83.58 56.58 75.7 73.1 66.2 15.47 IV : 85.09 54.35 68.3 77.1 68.0 16.00 Annual : Jan Est : 84.75 52.51 74.1 69.7 82.2 16.04 Feb Est : 84.75 52.51 74.1 69.7 82.2 16.03 : 2005 : I*: 84-86 51-53 71-73 66-68 66-68 15.50-15.80 II*: 80-84 51-55 71-75 67-71 60-64 13.60-14.20 III*: 77-83 46-50 71-77 69-75 62-68 13.35-14.25 IV*: 78-84 40-44 71-77 73-79 67-73 14.30-15.30 Annual : Jan Proj : 79-85 47-50 70-75 69-73 63-67 14.00-14.80 Feb Proj : 79-85 47-50 71-76 69-73 64-68 14.20-14.90 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-419-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2003 : 691 26339 3006 30036 2519 518 26999 64.9 2004 Est. Jan : 518 24644 3562 28724 434 615 27675 65.9 Feb : 518 24645 3602 28765 444 631 27690 65.9 2005 Proj. Jan : 615 26126 3660 30401 640 575 29186 68.8 Feb : 631 26151 3660 30442 640 575 29227 68.9 : PORK : 2003 : 533 19966 1185 21684 1717 532 19435 51.8 2004 Est. Jan : 532 20544 1111 22187 2135 510 19542 51.6 Feb : 532 20529 1101 22162 2170 544 19448 51.3 2005 Proj. Jan : 510 20746 1215 22471 2145 520 19806 51.8 Feb : 544 20696 1195 22435 2285 545 19605 51.2 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2003 : 1238 46710 4359 52307 4243 1059 47005 118.4 2004 Est. Jan : 1059 45563 4855 51477 2576 1133 47768 119.1 Feb : 1059 45549 4885 51493 2622 1181 47690 118.9 2005 Proj. Jan : 1133 47273 5065 53471 2789 1104 49578 122.3 Feb : 1181 47248 5045 53474 2929 1129 49416 121.9 : BROILERS : 2003 : 763 32399 12 33173 4920 608 27645 81.6 2004 Est. Jan : 608 33718 27 34353 4607 750 28997 84.7 Feb : 608 33699 27 34334 4682 727 28926 84.5 2005 Proj. Jan : 750 34749 28 35527 4955 650 29922 86.6 Feb : 727 34749 28 35504 5025 650 29829 86.3 : TURKEYS : 2003 : 333 5576 2 5911 484 354 5074 17.4 2004 Est. Jan : 354 5358 4 5716 440 250 5027 17.1 Feb : 354 5372 4 5730 440 288 5003 17.0 2005 Proj. Jan : 250 5443 4 5697 510 250 4937 16.6 Feb : 288 5502 4 5794 510 250 5034 17.0 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2003 : 1101 38477 16 39595 5500 966 33129 100.4 2004 Est. Jan : 966 39579 34 40579 5285 1004 34290 102.7 Feb : 966 39576 34 40576 5340 1018 34218 102.5 2005 Proj. Jan : 1004 40687 36 41727 5705 904 35118 104.1 Feb : 1018 40756 36 41810 5775 904 35131 104.2 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2003 : 2339 85187 4375 91902 9743 2025 80134 218.9 2004 Est. Jan : 2025 85142 4889 92056 7861 2137 82058 221.8 Feb : 2025 85125 4919 92069 7962 2199 81907 221.4 2005 Proj. Jan : 2137 87960 5101 95198 8494 2008 84696 226.4 Feb : 2199 88004 5081 95284 8704 2033 84547 226.0 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-419-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2004 Estimated : 2005 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2002 : 2003 : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.4 10.3 13.7 13.7 14.0 14.9 Production : 7268.0 7273.0 7423.0 7424.0 7530.0 7560.0 Imports : 15.0 13.3 13.5 13.5 16.0 12.0 Total supply : 7293.4 7296.6 7450.2 7451.2 7560.0 7586.9 : Use : Exports : 174.0 146.2 168.5 166.5 180.0 200.0 Hatching use : 961.3 959.4 983.8 987.2 1030.0 1030.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 13.7 14.0 14.9 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6147.8 6177.3 6283.9 6282.6 6336.0 6342.9 Per capita (number) : 255.9 254.7 256.5 256.5 256.1 256.4 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Est 1/ : 2004/05 Proj 1/ Commodity :2001/02:2002/03:-----------------:------------------ : 1/ : 1/ : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 9.9 9.9 Production : 169.3 170.4 170.1 170.1 173.5 172.9 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 168.2 169.3 169.1 169.1 172.5 171.9 Imports 2/ : 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.0 Total cml. supply 2/ : 182.1 185.5 185.5 185.4 187.5 186.8 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 170.6 173.3 175.6 175.5 178.3 177.6 Ending commercial stks. 2: 11.2 11.0 9.9 9.9 9.2 9.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 1.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 9.6 8.8 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 11.03 10.63 14.94 14.94 13.20- 13.40- : 13.70 13.90 : Class IV : 11.22 10.05 12.48 12.48 12.15- 12.30- : 12.85 13.00 : All milk 5/ : 12.74 11.91 15.63 15.63 14.45- 14.60- : 14.95 15.10 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4: Butter : 0 29 -7 -7 0 0 Cheese : 9 47 7 7 0 0 Nonfat dry milk : 817 719 168 168 80 25 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-419-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 23-year record of the differences between the February projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the February projection and the final estimate have averaged 2.2 million tons (0.4%) ranging from -7.3 to 6.8 million tons. The February projection has been below the estimate 16 times and above 7 times. Reliability of February Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.4 2.2 -7.3 6.8 16 7 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.1 11 6 Foreign : 0.5 2.2 -7.3 6.8 16 7 Exports : World : 2.8 3.2 -10.9 5.0 15 8 U.S. : 3.2 1.0 -1.4 3.0 10 13 Foreign : 3.9 3.2 -9.5 4.1 18 5 Domestic use : World : 0.8 4.5 -9.7 9.1 11 12 U.S. : 3.2 1.0 -2.4 2.4 10 13 Foreign : 0.8 4.1 -8.2 8.5 11 12 Ending stocks : World : 3.5 4.4 -11.4 7.8 14 9 U.S. : 7.4 1.5 -4.4 3.2 15 8 Foreign : 3.9 3.8 -10.4 9.1 13 10 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.9 7.3 -19.8 7.3 17 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 12 6 Foreign : 1.2 7.4 -19.8 7.3 15 7 Exports : World : 3.7 3.9 -10.4 13.8 17 6 U.S. : 7.6 3.8 -8.7 12.2 11 12 Foreign : 6.5 3.5 -12.6 7.2 15 8 Domestic use : World : 0.9 7.9 -16.2 28.9 11 12 U.S. : 2.5 4.4 -17.3 11.5 11 12 Foreign : 1.0 6.7 -12.5 22.2 14 9 Ending stocks : World : 7.9 10.8 -29.9 16.4 18 5 U.S. : 8.5 4.9 -16.9 18.5 13 10 Foreign : 9.8 7.9 -28.2 11.2 18 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.3 4.4 -14.0 1.9 17 6 U.S. : 1.1 0.1 -0.3 0.2 8 4 Foreign : 1.3 4.4 -14.0 1.8 17 6 Exports : World : 7.0 1.3 -5.2 1.3 19 4 U.S. : 6.3 0.2 -0.6 0.2 13 8 Foreign : 7.8 1.2 -5.0 1.2 18 5 Domestic use : World : 1.0 3.5 -12.8 2.3 16 7 U.S. : 5.6 0.2 -0.4 0.4 10 13 Foreign : 1.0 3.5 -13.0 2.5 16 7 Ending stocks : World : 6.7 3.1 -13.6 4.0 18 5 U.S. : 16.2 0.2 -0.3 0.4 11 12 Foreign : 7.0 3.1 -13.8 4.0 18 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-419-33 Reliability of February Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.9 2.5 -4.8 10.2 16 7 U.S. : 1.0 0.6 -1.6 1.8 10 9 Foreign : 3.4 2.4 -5.2 11.2 18 5 Exports : World : 4.8 2.0 -7.0 12.0 14 9 U.S. : 5.5 1.2 -2.9 3.7 13 10 Foreign : 14.9 2.1 -5.9 11.6 11 12 Domestic use : World : 2.1 2.8 -5.4 10.9 13 10 U.S. : 2.4 1.0 -3.0 2.4 16 7 Foreign : 2.5 2.3 -4.2 12.5 15 8 Ending stocks : World : 10.7 2.2 -6.8 5.1 15 8 U.S. : 20.3 1.5 -3.4 4.9 7 16 Foreign : 14.1 2.1 -6.7 3.1 16 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 1.7 1.5 -5.4 2.8 17 6 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.3 8 14 Foreign : 2.2 1.5 -5.7 2.7 17 6 Exports : World : 3.2 0.8 -2.5 0.9 13 10 U.S. : 6.9 0.4 -1.1 1.0 11 11 Foreign : 4.2 0.8 -3.5 1.0 13 10 Mill use : World : 1.8 1.5 -6.0 1.3 13 10 U.S. : 3.8 0.3 -0.9 0.8 17 5 Foreign : 1.8 1.4 -5.5 1.6 14 9 Ending stocks : World : 7.8 2.7 -6.0 7.9 12 10 U.S. : 12.9 0.6 -1.5 2.1 7 16 Foreign : 8.2 2.5 -6.2 7.4 13 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 23 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-419-34 Reliability of United States February Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.0 2 -8 38 2 1 Exports : 7.9 135 -379 384 10 13 Domestic use : 2.5 152 -474 345 12 11 Ending stocks : 10.3 193 -635 838 15 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.0 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 13.3 31 -90 97 13 9 Domestic use : 9.0 39 -178 100 11 12 Ending stocks : 31.2 33 -69 148 10 13 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 10 4 Exports : 12.7 8 -35 23 8 13 Domestic use : 5.2 20 -38 70 11 11 Ending stocks : 9.5 16 -52 24 15 7 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 4 3 Exports : 28.7 1 -1 3 4 5 Domestic use : 3.0 11 -26 36 12 11 Ending stocks : 10.6 13 -47 21 11 12 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.2 712 -2328 765 17 6 Exports : 7.0 474 -1900 941 16 7 Domestic use : 2.0 504 -1256 866 16 7 Ending stocks : 30.1 74 -214 208 10 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.3 341 -1173 365 16 7 Exports : 15.8 239 -700 814 11 12 Domestic use : 1.9 251 -735 300 16 6 Ending stocks : 15.7 241 -692 415 12 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.6 645 -741 1613 16 5 Pork : 2.8 462 -1240 1717 14 7 Broilers : 1.6 344 -729 484 14 7 Turkeys : 1.9 86 -177 161 12 9 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.2 76 -127 169 13 8 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.0 1.5 -3.2 3.6 9 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 23 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2003 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2002/03 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ------------ End of File -----------------