WASDE-382 January 11, 2002 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are down 16 million bushels from last month as increased domestic use more than offsets higher expected imports. Feed and residual use is up 25 million bushels from last month, while seed use is reduced 4 million bushels. Projected prices are reduced 10 cents on the high end to $2.75 to $2.85 per bushel. Global 2001/02 production is up slightly from last month as increases for Russia, Ukraine, and Mexico more than offset reductions for Argentina and Egypt. Global imports are up slightly due to small increases for a number of countries. Projected exports are increased for Russia, Turkey, and China but reduced for Kazakstan. The lower expected production in Argentina is offset by reduced domestic use and stocks, leaving projected Argentine exports unchanged from last month. Projected global 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are up sharply from last month, largely because of higher expected stocks in India. Recent Government of India data indicate stocks are well above a year earlier and larger than previously expected. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2001/02 U.S. ending stocks of corn are down 28 million bushels from last month due to lower production and reduced use. Estimated production is down 39 million bushels because of lower yields and area. Use of corn in the production of ethanol and HFCS is up 15 million bushels and feed and residual use is 50 million bushels higher. Projected exports are down 75 million bushels from last month due to increased competition and reduced global imports. In contrast to the smaller corn exports, U.S. sorghum exports are up 20 million bushels due to stronger global demand. The projected price range for corn is unchanged at $1.85 to $2.15 per bushel. Projected oat prices are raised 10 cents. The tight supply/demand balance of oats has not only resulted in much higher prices than during recent years, but increased imports. Projected oats imports are up 10 million bushels this month. Projected global 2001/02 coarse grain production is down slightly from last month, largely because of smaller corn crops in Argentina, Mexico, and the United States. Larger corn production in Egypt and sorghum output in Mexico are partially offsetting. Global imports of corn are down around 1 million tons due to smaller expected purchases by Turkey, Venezuela, Egypt, Thailand, and Japan. Projected corn exports by Brazil, at 2.5 million tons, are up 1.5 million from last month. The smaller global imports and increased Brazilian exports are balanced by export reductions for the United States and Argentina. RICE: The U.S. 2001/02 rice crop is estimated at a record 213 million cwt, up 3.3 million cwt from last month and 22 million cwt above 2000/01. Average yield for 2001/02 is estimated at a record 6,429 pounds per acre, up 55 pounds per acre from last month and 148 pounds per acre above 2000/01. Planted and harvested area are increased slightly from last month and are 9 percent above 2000/01. The average milling yield for 2001/02 is lowered 1 percentage point to 68 percent and compares to 68.6 percent for 2000/01. The downward adjustment in the milling yield leads to some adjustments on the use side. Domestic and residual use is projected at 122 million cwt, up 1 percent from last month and 4 percent above 2000/01. Exports are projected at 88 million cwt, up 2 million cwt from last month and 4.5 million cwt above 2000/01. Rough and milled rice exports are each raised 1 million cwt. Long-grain exports are raised 2 million cwt while combined medium and short-grain exports are unchanged from a month ago. Ending stocks are raised to 42.5 million cwt, fractionally above last month and 49 percent above 2000/01. The season-average price range for 2001/02 is narrowed 10 cents per cwt on each end to $4.10 to $4.40 per cwt. Global production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks for 2001/02 are slightly lower than a month ago. World rice production is projected at 392.6 million tons, down slightly from last month, and 4.4 million tons below 2000/01. Smaller crops projected for Pakistan and Cambodia are partially offset by increases for Egypt, Brazil, and the United States. World consumption is lowered slightly, but is still projected at a record level. Global ending stocks are projected at 125.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from last month, and down 11.6 million tons from 2000/01. Export projections for 2001/02 are lowered for Pakistan and China and are increased for India and the United States. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseeds production for 2001/02 is projected at a record 89.9 million metric tons, down 1.0 million tons from last month, but up 5.0 million tons from last year. Soybeans account for most of the decrease, with smaller reductions for canola and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is estimated at 2,891 million bushels, down 32 million bushels from the previous forecast, based on a 1.1-million-acre reduction in harvested area. U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1,010 million bushels, up 10 million from last month despite increased export availabilities from South America, as strong demand in several Middle Eastern countries and Indonesia boosts global import demand. U.S. soybean crush is increased 5 million bushels this month based on improved soybean meal export prospects, mainly for Indonesia, Canada, the Middle East, and Russia. Soybean meal production is up 0.2 million tons this month reflecting increased soybean meal exports. Soybean oil production is off slightly despite the increase in soybean crush due to a lower oil extraction rate. Expected soybean oil ending stocks are down from last month, at 2,430 million pounds. Projected U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2001/02 are down 10 cents on each end this month, to $3.90 to $4.70 per bushel, based on lower-than-expected early-season prices. The soybean oil price is tightened 0.5 cent on both ends of the range to 14.50 to 16.50 cents per pound. The soybean meal price is lowered $5.00 on the top end to $150 to $165 per short ton. Global oilseed production for 2001/02 is projected at a record 323.4 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from last month, and up 11.6 million tons from last year. Global soybean production is projected at a record 182.8 million tons, up slightly from last month, and up 8.6 million tons from last year. Brazil's soybean production is raised 1 million tons from last month to a record 42.5 million tons based on increased harvested area and on improved yield prospects due to excellent weather to date, especially in the center-west region. Other oilseed production changes this month include a 0.4-million-ton increase in China's cottonseed output. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal-year 2001/02 is decreased 100,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower forecast sugarcane yields in Louisiana. Florida sugar production is unchanged, as lower forecast sugarcane yields are offset by higher projected sugar yield per ton. Sugar use is unchanged. The projected season-ending stocks-to-use ratio is 11.6 percent, compared with 12.7 percent last month. Stocks held by the Commodity Credit Corporation are reduced 110,000 tons, mainly due to sales for unrestricted use. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Estimated total meat production for 2001 is increased slightly from last month. December cattle and hog slaughter was higher than expected, raising estimated beef and pork production. Based on recent slaughter data, estimated broiler production is lowered but turkey production is raised. For 2002, projected pork production is increased as a reduction in first-half production is more than offset by higher second-half production. The forecast of beef production in the first quarter is raised due to continued gains in carcass weights, but subsequent quarterly forecasts are unchanged. The February 1 Cattle report will provide an opportunity to reevaluate production forecasts for 2002 and beyond. Forecasts of 2002 poultry production are unchanged from last month. U.S. pork exports are raised this month for the last quarter of 2001 and first-half 2002 because of continued strength in Asian markets. Export forecasts for other meats are unchanged from last month. Estimated cattle and hog prices are lowered for the last quarter of 2001. Prices in 2002 for cattle and poultry are unchanged from last month. The hog price is raised for the middle quarters of 2002 as lower production is expected to support prices. Forecast milk production in 2001/02 is lowered from last month as the number of cows and the growth in milk per cow is reduced. Tight heifer supplies have prevented producers from responding to relatively good returns and the retention of low-producing cows, coupled with tight supplies of high-quality hay, have dampened increases in milk production. Weaker demand for skim solids in products other than cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) is expected to offset lower supplies of skim solids and result in higher CCC net removals of NDM. The forecast Class IV price is about unchanged from last month but the Class III price forecast is raised 10 cents. The 2001/02 all milk price is forecast at $13.10 to $13.60 per cwt. COTTON: This month's 2001/02 U.S. projections indicate higher production and reduced domestic mill use. Production is raised slightly, up 20,000 bales from last month. Domestic mill use is reduced 200,000 bales to 7.7 million bales, reflecting lower rates of mill use reported by the Census Bureau for October and November. Projected ending stocks are raised 200,000 bales to 8.6 million bales. The world 2001/02 situation includes higher production and ending stocks this month. World production is raised 675,000 bales, including an increase of 900,000 bales for China, based on numerous reports, including provincial estimates, that indicate production is larger than previously anticipated. Higher production for China and Egypt is partially offset by a reduction for Pakistan. World consumption is marginally higher, as increases for China and Turkey are partially offset by decreases for the United States, India, and Mexico. World stocks are raised 1.3 percent this month, to 44.1 million bales. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: J. B. PENN ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on February 8, 2002. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2002: Jan.11, Feb. 8, Mar. 8, Apr. 10, May 10, June 12, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 12, Oct. 11, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. 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WASDE-382-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 1,871.02 2,394.91 281.50 1,871.83 523.08 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,835.22 2,358.30 271.38 1,868.42 489.87 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 1,843.02 2,330.29 266.59 1,893.84 436.45 January : 1,841.60 2,331.48 267.27 1,886.28 445.19 Wheat : 1999/00 : 585.93 762.02 134.99 591.42 170.60 2000/01 (Est.) : 582.22 752.82 126.65 588.97 163.85 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 577.02 740.02 129.13 596.04 143.98 January : 578.45 742.30 129.98 588.87 153.43 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 876.63 1,091.37 122.42 881.91 209.46 2000/01 (Est.) : 856.00 1,065.47 119.71 876.45 189.01 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 873.18 1,060.14 113.98 893.41 166.73 January : 870.54 1,059.56 113.89 893.21 166.35 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 408.45 541.52 24.09 398.50 143.01 2000/01 (Est.) : 396.99 540.01 25.02 403.00 137.01 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 392.82 530.13 23.47 404.38 125.75 January : 392.61 529.62 23.40 404.20 125.42 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 332.24 415.71 88.85 251.29 75.57 2000/01 (Est.) : 339.83 420.91 88.06 255.42 77.43 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 323.25 405.92 88.76 253.15 64.01 January : 321.71 404.70 87.40 254.41 62.90 Wheat : 1999/00 : 62.57 90.89 29.65 35.38 25.85 2000/01 (Est.) : 60.76 89.05 28.89 36.32 23.85 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 53.28 79.57 27.22 33.67 18.69 January : 53.28 79.71 27.22 34.24 18.26 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 263.17 317.31 56.40 212.06 48.86 2000/01 (Est.) : 273.13 324.70 56.57 215.44 52.70 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 263.41 318.55 58.86 215.70 43.99 January : 261.86 317.19 57.47 216.39 43.33 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 6.50 7.52 2.80 3.85 0.87 2000/01 (Est.) : 5.94 7.15 2.60 3.67 0.89 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 6.56 7.80 2.69 3.79 1.32 January : 6.57 7.81 2.71 3.78 1.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-382-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 1,538.78 1,979.20 192.65 1,620.55 447.50 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,495.39 1,937.39 183.32 1,613.00 412.44 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 1,519.77 1,924.37 177.82 1,640.69 372.45 January : 1,519.89 1,926.77 179.87 1,631.87 382.30 Wheat : 1999/00 : 523.36 671.14 105.33 556.03 144.75 2000/01 (Est.) : 521.46 663.77 97.76 552.65 140.01 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 523.74 660.45 101.92 562.38 125.28 January : 525.17 662.59 102.76 554.64 135.17 Coarse grains 5/ : 1999/00 : 613.46 774.06 66.03 669.85 160.60 2000/01 (Est.) : 582.88 740.76 63.14 661.02 136.31 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 609.77 741.59 55.13 677.71 122.74 January : 608.68 742.37 56.43 676.82 123.02 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 401.95 534.00 21.29 394.66 142.15 2000/01 (Est.) : 391.05 532.85 22.42 399.33 136.12 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 386.26 522.33 20.78 400.60 124.43 January : 386.04 521.81 20.68 400.42 124.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1999/00 : 87.35 132.48 27.27 91.90 41.57 2000/01 (Est.) : 88.52 130.10 26.40 92.05 38.96 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 96.00 134.94 28.47 91.62 43.51 January : 96.68 135.64 28.39 91.75 44.08 : United States 1999/00 : 16.97 21.00 6.75 10.24 3.92 2000/01 (Est.) : 17.19 21.13 6.76 8.88 6.00 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 20.06 26.08 9.80 7.90 8.40 January : 20.08 26.10 9.80 7.70 8.60 : Foreign 3/ 1999/00 : 70.38 111.47 20.52 81.66 37.65 2000/01 (Est.) : 71.34 108.97 19.63 83.17 32.96 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 75.94 108.87 18.67 83.72 35.11 January : 76.59 109.54 18.59 84.05 35.48 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-382-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 303.31 335.13 64.47 247.57 34.24 2000/01 (Est.) : 311.73 345.97 71.62 255.64 33.41 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 322.96 356.38 71.63 264.45 32.76 January : 323.36 356.77 72.16 265.12 32.38 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 168.79 175.55 56.14 169.45 5.69 2000/01 (Est.) : 176.74 182.43 56.59 176.69 5.47 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 183.01 188.45 58.29 182.58 5.34 January : 183.52 188.99 58.45 183.31 5.38 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 85.86 93.22 32.81 83.90 8.11 2000/01 (Est.) : 88.78 96.89 34.59 88.49 7.96 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 90.62 98.53 35.25 91.14 7.20 January : 90.61 98.57 35.30 91.37 7.17 : : United States Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 82.31 93.85 27.34 47.90 8.98 2000/01 (Est.) : 84.89 94.69 28.04 49.02 7.83 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 90.88 99.22 28.18 50.43 10.28 January : 89.91 98.33 28.42 50.51 9.14 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 36.70 38.27 6.85 31.12 0.30 2000/01 (Est.) : 38.18 39.65 7.17 32.08 0.40 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 38.87 40.39 7.30 32.80 0.29 January : 39.00 40.49 7.43 32.77 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 9.37 11.90 1.13 9.55 1.21 2000/01 (Est.) : 9.50 12.41 1.05 9.66 1.69 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 9.78 13.11 1.62 10.03 1.45 January : 9.74 13.06 1.62 10.03 1.41 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 220.99 241.28 37.14 199.67 25.25 2000/01 (Est.) : 226.84 251.28 43.57 206.62 25.58 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 232.08 257.16 43.45 214.02 22.48 January : 233.45 258.44 43.74 214.61 23.24 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 132.09 137.28 49.29 138.33 5.40 2000/01 (Est.) : 138.55 142.78 49.42 144.61 5.07 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 144.14 148.06 51.00 149.78 5.05 January : 144.52 148.50 51.02 150.54 5.09 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 76.49 81.33 31.68 74.35 6.90 2000/01 (Est.) : 79.28 84.48 33.54 78.83 6.26 2001/02 (Proj.) : December : 80.83 85.42 33.63 81.11 5.75 January : 80.87 85.50 33.67 81.34 5.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-382-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.7 62.6 59.6 59.6 Harvested : 53.8 53.1 48.7 48.7 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.7 42.0 40.2 40.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 946 950 876 876 Production : 2,299 2,232 1,958 1,958 Imports : 95 90 90 95 Supply, total : 3,339 3,272 2,924 2,929 Food : 929 956 950 950 Seed : 92 80 87 83 Feed and residual : 279 298 200 225 Domestic, total : 1,300 1,334 1,237 1,258 Exports : 1,090 1,061 1,000 1,000 Use, total : 2,390 2,396 2,237 2,258 Ending stocks : 950 876 687 671 CCC inventory : 104 97 94 94 Free stocks : 846 779 593 577 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.48 2.62 2.75- 2.95 2.75- 2.85 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2000/01 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 458 218 133 91 50 950 Production : 846 502 471 303 110 2,232 Supply, total 3/ : 1,304 779 604 399 185 3,272 Domestic use : 491 339 293 121 90 1,334 Exports : 402 230 176 203 50 1,061 Use, total : 893 569 469 324 140 2,396 Ending stocks, total : 411 210 135 75 45 876 : 2001/02 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,958 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 735 535 317 164 2,929 Domestic use : 493 323 261 91 90 1,258 Exports : 365 220 210 155 50 1,000 Use, total : 858 543 471 246 140 2,258 Ending stocks, total : January : 321 192 64 71 23 671 December : 325 192 78 71 20 687 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-382-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 96.5 99.1 95.4 95.4 Harvested : 86.2 87.7 84.2 83.6 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.11 3.13 3.13 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 51.3 48.8 52.7 52.7 Production : 262.9 272.9 263.2 261.7 Imports : 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.5 Supply, total : 316.9 324.4 318.2 316.9 Feed and residual : 156.9 159.6 158.0 158.3 Food, seed & industrial : 54.7 55.6 57.4 57.8 Domestic, total : 211.7 215.1 215.4 216.1 Exports : 56.4 56.6 58.9 57.5 Use, total : 268.1 271.7 274.3 273.6 Ending stocks, total : 48.8 52.7 44.0 43.3 CCC inventory : 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 Free stocks : 48.5 52.4 43.8 43.1 Outstanding loans : 10.2 6.6 5.3 5.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 77.4 79.6 76.0 75.8 Harvested : 70.5 72.4 69.2 68.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 133.8 136.9 138.0 138.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,787 1,718 1,899 1,899 Production : 9,431 9,915 9,546 9,507 Imports : 15 7 10 10 Supply, total : 11,232 11,639 11,454 11,416 Feed and residual : 5,664 5,836 5,800 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 1,913 1,967 2,030 2,045 Domestic, total : 7,578 7,803 7,830 7,895 Exports : 1,937 1,937 2,050 1,975 Use, total : 9,515 9,740 9,880 9,870 Ending stocks, total : 1,718 1,899 1,574 1,546 CCC inventory : 14 8 5 5 Free stocks : 1,704 1,891 1,569 1,541 Outstanding loans : 392 253 200 225 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.82 1.85 1.85- 2.15 1.85- 2.15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-382-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.3 9.2 10.0 10.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.5 7.7 8.8 8.6 Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.7 60.9 61.2 59.9 Beginning stocks : 65 65 42 42 Production : 595 471 537 515 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 660 536 579 556 Feed and residual : 284 220 240 200 Food, seed & industrial : 55 35 45 45 Total domestic : 339 255 285 245 Exports : 256 239 240 260 Use, total : 595 494 525 505 Ending stocks, total : 65 42 54 51 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.57 1.89 1.85- 2.15 1.85- 2.15 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.2 5.9 5.0 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 5.2 4.3 4.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.2 61.1 58.2 58.2 Beginning stocks : 142 111 106 106 Production : 280 319 250 250 Imports : 28 29 25 25 Supply, total : 450 459 381 381 Feed and residual : 136 123 95 95 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 308 295 267 267 Exports : 30 58 30 30 Use, total : 338 353 297 297 Ending stocks, total : 111 106 84 84 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 2.11 2.15- 2.35 2.15- 2.35 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.6 64.2 61.3 61.3 Beginning stocks : 81 76 73 73 Production : 146 150 117 117 Imports : 99 106 90 100 Supply, total : 326 332 280 290 Feed and residual : 180 189 155 155 Food, seed & industrial : 68 68 68 70 Total domestic : 249 257 223 225 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 250 259 225 227 Ending stocks, total : 76 73 55 62 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.12 1.10 1.30- 1.40 1.40- 1.50 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-382-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.53 3.06 3.32 3.34 Harvested : 3.51 3.04 3.29 3.31 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,866 6,281 6,374 6,429 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 22.1 27.5 28.5 28.5 Production : 206.0 190.9 209.7 213.0 Imports : 10.1 10.9 11.0 11.0 Supply, total : 238.2 229.2 249.2 252.5 Domestic & residual 3/ : 121.9 117.2 121.0 122.1 Exports, total 4/ : 88.9 83.5 86.0 88.0 Rough : 25.2 22.8 23.0 24.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 63.6 60.7 63.0 64.0 Use, total : 210.7 200.7 207.0 210.1 Ending stocks : 27.5 28.5 42.2 42.5 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.6 68.6 69.0 68.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.93 5.56 4.00- 4.50 4.10- 4.40 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.72 2.19 2.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,587 5,882 6,130 Beginning stocks : 14.1 15.6 11.6 11.6 Production : 151.9 128.8 162.3 165.3 Supply, total 7/ : 173.5 153.1 182.9 186.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.1 76.0 86.1 87.1 Exports 8/ : 70.8 65.5 70.0 72.0 Use, total : 157.9 141.5 156.1 159.1 Ending stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.9 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.79 0.85 0.62 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,822 7,308 7,733 Beginning stocks : 6.8 10.4 15.6 15.6 Production : 54.2 62.1 47.4 47.7 Supply, total 7/ : 63.3 74.8 65.0 65.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.8 41.2 34.9 35.0 Exports 8/ : 18.1 18.0 16.0 16.0 Use, total : 52.9 59.2 50.9 51.0 Ending stocks : 10.4 15.6 14.1 14.4 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1999/00-1.2; 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-382-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.7 74.3 75.2 74.1 Harvested : 72.4 72.4 74.1 73.0 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 36.6 38.1 39.4 39.6 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 348 290 248 248 Production : 2,654 2,758 2,923 2,891 Imports : 4 4 4 5 Supply, total : 3,006 3,052 3,175 3,143 Crushings : 1,578 1,641 1,670 1,675 Exports : 973 998 1,000 1,010 Seed : 90 91 91 91 Residual : 75 74 84 82 Use, total : 2,716 2,804 2,845 2,858 Ending stocks : 290 248 330 285 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.63 4.54 4.00- 4.80 3.90 - 4.70 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,520 1,995 2,877 2,877 Production : 17,825 18,434 18,760 18,675 Imports : 83 73 78 78 Supply, total : 19,427 20,502 21,715 21,630 Domestic : 16,056 16,223 16,700 16,700 Exports : 1,376 1,402 2,500 2,500 Use, total : 17,432 17,625 19,200 19,200 Ending stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,515 2,430 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 15.60 14.15 14.00- 14.50- : 17.00 16.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 330 293 383 383 Production : 37,591 39,389 39,942 40,092 Imports : 49 51 50 50 Supply, total : 37,970 39,733 40,375 40,525 Domestic : 30,346 31,713 32,350 32,350 Exports : 7,331 7,636 7,750 7,900 Use, total : 37,678 39,349 40,100 40,250 Ending stocks : 293 383 275 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.70 173.60 150.00- 150.00- : 170.00 165.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-382-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :====================== : : Estimate : December January ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,639 2,219 2,194 2,194 Production 2/3/ : 9,042 8,674 8,025 7,925 Beet sugar : 4,976 4,592 3,900 3,900 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,065 4,082 4,125 4,025 Imports 2/ : 1,636 1,574 1,631 1,631 TRQ 5/ : 1,124 1,260 1,341 1,341 Other 6/ : 512 314 290 290 Total supply : 12,317 12,467 11,850 11,750 : Exports 2/7/ : 124 141 150 150 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,111 10,130 10,290 10,290 Domestic food use : 9,993 9,998 10,170 10,170 Other 8/ : 118 132 120 120 Miscellaneous 9/ : (137) 1 90 90 Use, total : 10,098 10,272 10,530 10,530 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,194 1,320 1,220 Private : 1,922 1,410 846 856 CCC 10/ : 297 784 474 364 : Stocks to use ratio : 22.0 21.4 12.5 11.6 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2001/02 are based on the January Crop Production and analyses by Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2000/01 (projected 2001/02): FL 2,055 (1,990); HI 241 (270); LA 1,579 (1,610); TX 207 (150); PR 0 (5). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2001/02 available TRQs assume shortfall of 65,000 tons. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Includes residual statistical discrepancies and expected Commodity Credit Corporation sales to ethanol producers. 10/ For 2001/02, includes only sugar owned by CCC, as of January 7, 2001, net of expected sales to ethanol producers and transfers of sugar under the Payment- In-Kind Diversion Program. Season-ending CCC stocks will be a function of market and program developments. WASDE-382-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.87 15.52 16.19 15.79 Harvested : 13.42 13.05 13.94 13.81 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 607 632 691 698 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.94 3.92 6.00 6.00 Production : 16.97 17.19 20.06 20.08 Imports : 0.10 0.02 0.01 0.01 Supply, total : 21.00 21.13 26.08 26.10 Domestic use : 10.24 8.88 7.90 7.70 Exports : 6.75 6.76 9.80 9.80 Use, total : 16.99 15.65 17.70 17.50 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.09 -0.52 -0.02 0.00 Ending stocks : 3.92 6.00 8.40 8.60 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 45.0 49.8 32.5 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted price for August-November 2001. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2001/02 is 48.9 percent. WASDE-382-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 176.09 585.93 131.10 98.16 591.42 134.99 170.60 United States : 25.74 62.57 2.57 7.60 35.38 29.65 25.85 Total foreign : 150.34 523.36 128.53 90.55 556.03 105.33 144.75 Major exporters 4/ : 27.68 164.13 25.37 48.88 104.13 86.95 26.08 Argentina : 0.30 15.70 0.03 0.10 4.13 11.60 0.30 Australia : 1.87 24.76 0.06 2.48 5.23 17.84 3.61 Canada : 7.44 26.90 0.19 3.60 7.62 19.17 7.74 EU-15 : 18.07 96.77 25.09 42.71 87.16 38.34 14.43 Major importers 5/ : 87.01 174.44 34.74 17.06 209.93 4.75 81.51 Brazil : 0.78 2.40 7.56 0.20 9.48 0.00 1.25 China : 66.44 113.88 1.01 5.00 115.62 0.54 65.16 East. Europe : 7.69 28.20 1.50 10.50 29.57 3.40 4.41 N. Africa : 7.04 11.53 16.61 0.31 28.89 0.17 6.11 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.10 0.40 20.45 0.00 3.25 Selected other : India : 9.92 70.78 1.37 0.35 68.79 0.20 13.08 FSU-12 6/ : 5.45 64.75 9.46 17.31 65.57 9.09 5.00 Russia : 1.00 31.00 5.08 11.80 35.37 0.52 1.20 Kazakstan : 0.60 11.20 0.00 1.00 4.59 6.51 0.70 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 170.60 582.22 125.89 100.50 588.97 126.65 163.85 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.12 36.32 28.89 23.85 Total foreign : 144.75 521.46 123.45 92.38 552.65 97.76 140.01 Major exporters 4/ : 26.08 172.38 26.99 55.27 111.54 83.75 30.16 Argentina : 0.30 16.50 0.03 0.30 4.50 11.70 0.63 Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.05 4.00 6.87 15.93 4.63 Canada : 7.74 26.80 0.20 4.15 8.22 17.32 9.21 EU-15 : 14.43 105.31 26.72 46.82 91.96 38.81 15.70 Major importers 5/ : 81.51 161.39 34.91 15.23 207.49 3.87 66.45 Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.20 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.61 China : 65.16 99.64 0.30 3.50 114.00 0.62 50.48 East. Europe : 4.41 28.39 3.10 10.14 29.15 2.32 4.44 N. Africa : 6.11 9.94 18.25 0.31 28.52 0.22 5.56 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.15 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.73 Selected other : India : 13.08 75.75 0.05 0.50 65.81 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 6/ : 5.00 62.82 5.01 15.66 62.87 4.60 5.37 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.50 11.60 35.05 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-382-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 163.00 577.02 127.12 100.88 596.04 129.13 143.98 January : 163.85 578.45 127.71 101.36 588.87 129.98 153.43 United States : December : 23.85 53.28 2.45 5.44 33.67 27.22 18.69 January : 23.85 53.28 2.59 6.12 34.24 27.22 18.26 Total foreign : December : 139.15 523.74 124.67 95.44 562.38 101.92 125.28 January : 140.01 525.17 125.12 95.24 554.64 102.76 135.17 Major exporters 4/ : December : 30.94 152.21 27.35 51.60 107.57 79.70 23.23 January : 30.16 151.96 27.35 51.40 107.19 79.80 22.48 Argentina Dec : 0.63 17.00 0.03 0.40 4.60 12.50 0.55 Jan : 0.63 16.50 0.03 0.20 4.20 12.50 0.45 Australia Dec : 4.63 22.00 0.05 2.60 5.50 17.50 3.68 Jan : 4.63 22.00 0.05 2.60 5.50 17.50 3.68 Canada Dec : 9.21 21.30 0.15 4.10 8.20 16.00 6.46 Jan : 9.21 21.30 0.15 4.10 8.20 16.00 6.46 EU-15 Dec : 16.48 91.91 27.13 44.50 89.27 33.70 12.54 Jan : 15.70 92.16 27.13 44.50 89.29 33.80 11.89 Major importers 5/ : December : 64.89 165.35 31.78 16.10 208.66 7.04 46.32 January : 66.45 164.92 32.18 16.10 208.92 7.54 47.08 Brazil Dec : 0.61 3.00 6.50 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.61 Jan : 0.61 3.00 6.50 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.61 China Dec : 50.48 94.00 1.50 3.00 113.50 0.50 31.98 Jan : 50.48 94.00 1.50 3.00 113.50 1.00 31.48 East. Europe Dec : 4.03 35.96 1.48 11.34 30.86 4.72 5.89 Jan : 4.44 35.86 1.68 11.34 31.21 4.72 6.05 N. Africa Dec : 4.41 12.69 16.00 0.31 28.38 0.22 4.50 Jan : 5.56 12.36 16.20 0.31 28.29 0.22 5.60 Pakistan Dec : 3.73 19.00 0.50 0.40 20.40 1.00 1.83 Jan : 3.73 19.00 0.50 0.40 20.40 1.00 1.83 Selected other : India Dec : 21.50 68.50 0.10 0.50 68.10 3.00 19.00 Jan : 21.50 68.50 0.10 0.50 60.10 3.00 27.00 FSU-12 6/ Dec : 5.37 89.86 4.79 19.41 69.38 9.60 21.04 Jan : 5.37 91.66 4.69 19.41 69.28 9.60 22.84 Russia Dec : 1.40 45.50 1.00 13.00 37.50 2.00 8.40 Jan : 1.40 47.00 1.00 13.00 37.50 2.50 9.40 Kazakstan Dec : 1.45 13.00 0.02 1.30 4.97 3.50 6.00 Jan : 1.45 13.00 0.02 1.30 4.97 3.00 6.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-382-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 214.74 876.63 114.34 580.69 881.91 122.42 209.46 United States : 51.37 263.17 2.77 157.09 212.06 56.40 48.86 Total foreign : 163.36 613.46 111.58 423.60 669.85 66.03 160.60 Major exporters 4/ : 8.26 68.03 1.02 34.20 45.56 21.98 9.78 Argentina : 1.59 21.46 0.03 6.96 8.86 12.96 1.26 Australia : 0.81 8.69 0.02 3.58 4.79 4.00 0.72 Canada : 4.88 26.83 0.73 19.12 23.26 3.51 5.67 Major importers 5/ : 37.15 201.25 68.60 178.39 241.14 30.88 34.98 EU-15 : 23.35 103.00 16.58 71.80 95.61 27.63 19.69 East. Europe : 3.98 54.65 1.71 41.89 52.44 3.14 4.75 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.41 16.29 20.82 0.00 2.24 Mexico : 3.13 26.18 9.93 19.61 35.55 0.01 3.68 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.81 4.50 14.34 19.19 0.10 1.61 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 9.28 7.13 9.39 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 102.61 137.22 2.21 91.56 129.40 9.95 102.69 FSU-12 6/ : 4.47 40.46 3.09 27.07 42.45 1.76 3.81 Russia : 1.79 21.80 2.49 14.92 24.88 0.14 1.06 Ukraine : 1.50 10.59 0.11 6.76 10.15 0.78 1.27 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 209.46 856.00 115.61 581.70 876.45 119.71 189.01 United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.61 215.44 56.57 52.70 Total foreign : 160.60 582.88 112.89 422.09 661.02 63.14 136.31 Major exporters 4/ : 9.78 62.54 2.80 34.01 45.80 21.19 8.14 Argentina : 1.26 19.53 0.02 6.35 8.44 11.12 1.24 Australia : 0.72 10.85 0.02 4.00 5.31 5.11 1.16 Canada : 5.67 24.33 2.59 20.56 24.72 3.60 4.26 Major importers 5/ : 34.98 185.28 70.02 171.92 234.70 25.49 30.08 EU-15 : 19.69 107.50 16.81 77.65 101.89 23.75 18.37 East. Europe : 4.75 35.88 2.79 29.69 40.18 1.08 2.17 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.25 16.04 20.46 0.00 2.25 Mexico : 3.68 24.30 11.09 20.23 35.97 0.02 3.09 Southeast Asia : 1.61 14.97 4.08 13.94 18.67 0.64 1.35 South Korea : 0.85 0.49 8.89 7.16 9.45 0.00 0.78 Selected other : China : 102.69 113.95 2.59 94.30 130.21 7.30 81.73 FSU-12 6/ : 3.81 49.41 0.91 28.14 45.49 2.24 6.41 Russia : 1.06 28.20 0.63 15.13 26.98 0.62 2.28 Ukraine : 1.27 12.99 0.06 7.24 10.50 1.13 2.69 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-382-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 186.97 873.18 115.30 599.02 893.41 113.98 166.73 January : 189.01 870.54 114.40 598.40 893.21 113.89 166.35 United States : December : 52.69 263.41 2.45 158.02 215.70 58.86 43.99 January : 52.70 261.86 2.62 158.30 216.39 57.47 43.33 Total foreign : December : 134.28 609.77 112.85 441.00 677.71 55.13 122.74 January : 136.31 608.68 111.77 440.10 676.82 56.43 123.02 Major exporters 4/ : December : 8.15 59.95 2.71 34.86 46.76 17.63 6.42 January : 8.14 58.95 2.71 34.56 46.26 17.13 6.41 Argentina Dec : 1.24 16.51 0.03 6.23 8.32 8.27 1.19 Jan : 1.24 15.51 0.03 5.93 7.82 7.77 1.19 Australia Dec : 1.17 11.09 0.00 4.36 5.67 5.41 1.18 Jan : 1.16 11.09 0.00 4.36 5.67 5.41 1.17 Canada Dec : 4.26 22.94 2.49 20.15 24.40 2.45 2.83 Jan : 4.26 22.94 2.49 20.15 24.40 2.45 2.83 Major importers 5/ : December : 29.12 202.29 68.21 178.34 241.87 27.22 30.53 January : 30.08 201.54 68.36 178.26 241.31 27.02 31.65 EU-15 Dec : 17.94 106.59 18.80 78.79 102.81 23.03 17.49 Jan : 18.37 106.69 18.80 78.84 102.93 22.88 18.05 East. Europe Dec : 2.17 52.10 1.32 35.73 47.23 3.67 4.68 Jan : 2.17 51.75 1.37 35.60 46.95 3.62 4.71 Japan Dec : 2.25 0.22 19.68 15.78 20.10 0.00 2.05 Jan : 2.25 0.22 19.68 15.78 20.10 0.00 2.05 Mexico Dec : 2.56 25.80 10.74 20.87 36.64 0.02 2.45 Jan : 3.09 25.30 11.04 20.97 36.34 0.02 3.08 Southeast Asia Dec : 1.34 15.18 4.80 14.83 19.56 0.50 1.26 Jan : 1.35 15.18 4.60 14.73 19.46 0.50 1.17 South Korea Dec : 0.78 0.49 7.05 5.40 7.71 0.00 0.61 Jan : 0.78 0.49 7.05 5.40 7.71 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China Dec : 81.51 116.16 3.55 98.48 134.56 3.03 63.63 Jan : 81.73 116.16 3.55 98.45 134.78 3.03 63.62 FSU-12 6/ Dec : 6.41 61.47 1.16 32.47 50.63 5.31 13.10 Jan : 6.41 61.67 1.16 32.67 50.85 5.81 12.58 Russia Dec : 2.28 35.00 0.75 17.30 29.10 2.25 6.68 Jan : 2.28 35.00 0.75 17.30 29.10 2.25 6.68 Ukraine Dec : 2.69 16.80 0.04 8.52 12.50 2.45 4.58 Jan : 2.69 17.00 0.04 8.72 12.72 2.95 4.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-382-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 169.12 607.07 80.02 420.28 604.70 85.79 171.50 United States : 45.39 239.55 0.37 143.88 192.48 49.21 43.63 Total foreign : 123.73 367.53 79.65 276.40 412.22 36.59 127.87 Major exporters 4/ : 1.69 27.76 0.12 8.17 13.56 13.43 2.58 Argentina : 0.71 17.20 0.02 4.00 5.51 11.96 0.45 South Africa : 0.98 10.56 0.10 4.17 8.05 1.47 2.13 Major importers 5/ : 12.38 102.05 51.23 101.30 139.47 11.65 14.54 EU-15 : 3.66 37.17 10.87 30.26 38.68 8.91 4.11 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.12 12.15 16.32 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 1.85 19.24 4.91 8.26 23.66 0.01 2.34 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.61 4.50 14.15 18.99 0.10 1.61 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.69 6.65 8.40 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 102.09 128.09 0.07 90.00 118.00 9.94 102.31 FSU-12 6/ : 1.36 5.08 1.35 5.11 6.39 0.11 1.28 Russia : 0.15 1.10 1.17 1.61 1.94 0.00 0.47 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 171.50 585.41 82.91 423.68 603.15 85.62 153.76 United States : 43.63 251.85 0.17 148.24 198.21 49.21 48.24 Total foreign : 127.87 333.56 82.74 275.44 404.95 36.41 105.52 Major exporters 4/ : 2.58 23.00 0.06 6.20 11.90 11.80 1.94 Argentina : 0.45 15.50 0.01 3.30 5.00 10.50 0.46 South Africa : 2.13 7.50 0.05 2.90 6.90 1.30 1.48 Major importers 5/ : 14.54 87.88 52.78 94.08 132.44 10.24 12.51 EU-15 : 4.11 38.29 11.03 31.34 40.06 8.67 4.70 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 12.15 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.70 5.93 8.80 24.00 0.02 1.95 Southeast Asia : 1.61 14.77 4.08 13.75 18.47 0.64 1.35 South Korea : 0.85 0.08 8.74 7.10 8.90 0.00 0.78 Selected other : China : 102.31 106.00 0.04 93.00 120.00 7.28 81.08 FSU-12 6/ : 1.28 7.36 0.26 5.26 6.54 0.15 2.21 Russia : 0.47 1.55 0.18 1.65 2.00 0.00 0.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-382-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 152.43 586.06 81.55 434.62 612.45 78.93 126.04 January : 153.76 583.40 80.50 434.02 611.71 77.97 125.45 United States : December : 48.23 242.47 0.25 147.33 198.89 52.07 39.99 January : 48.24 241.49 0.25 148.60 200.54 50.17 39.27 Total foreign : December : 104.20 343.59 81.30 287.30 413.55 26.86 86.06 January : 105.52 341.92 80.24 285.42 411.17 27.81 86.18 Major exporters 4/ : December : 1.94 21.50 0.07 7.10 12.80 9.00 1.70 January : 1.94 20.50 0.07 6.80 12.30 8.50 1.70 Argentina Dec : 0.46 12.50 0.02 3.30 5.00 7.50 0.47 Jan : 0.46 11.50 0.02 3.00 4.50 7.00 0.47 South Africa Dec : 1.48 9.00 0.05 3.80 7.80 1.50 1.23 Jan : 1.48 9.00 0.05 3.80 7.80 1.50 1.23 Major importers 5/ : December : 12.18 101.35 50.18 98.58 137.73 12.73 13.24 January : 12.51 100.21 49.83 97.74 136.48 12.68 13.38 EU-15 Dec : 4.70 38.76 11.68 32.44 41.25 9.42 4.47 Jan : 4.70 38.86 11.68 32.54 41.35 9.42 4.47 Japan Dec : 1.30 0.00 15.50 11.69 15.69 0.00 1.11 Jan : 1.30 0.00 15.30 11.49 15.49 0.00 1.11 Mexico Dec : 1.62 19.00 6.00 9.80 25.00 0.02 1.60 Jan : 1.95 18.00 6.00 9.30 24.10 0.02 1.83 Southeast Asia Dec : 1.34 14.98 4.80 14.64 19.36 0.50 1.26 Jan : 1.35 14.98 4.60 14.54 19.26 0.50 1.17 South Korea Dec : 0.78 0.08 6.70 5.15 6.95 0.00 0.61 Jan : 0.78 0.08 6.70 5.15 6.95 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China Dec : 81.09 108.00 1.00 97.00 124.00 3.00 63.09 Jan : 81.08 108.00 1.00 97.00 124.00 3.00 63.08 FSU-12 6/ Dec : 2.21 6.30 0.38 5.39 6.57 0.15 2.17 Jan : 2.21 6.30 0.38 5.39 6.57 0.15 2.17 Russia Dec : 0.20 0.80 0.30 0.90 1.20 0.00 0.10 Jan : 0.20 0.80 0.30 0.90 1.20 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-382-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 3/ : 133.07 408.45 21.24 398.50 24.09 143.01 United States : 0.69 6.50 0.32 3.85 2.80 0.87 Total foreign : 132.37 401.95 20.91 394.66 21.29 142.15 Major exporters 4/ : 13.77 132.06 0.13 111.42 13.42 21.12 Thailand : 1.06 16.50 0.00 9.60 6.55 1.41 Vietnam : 0.35 20.93 0.04 16.77 3.37 1.18 Major importers 5/ : 14.05 54.64 9.50 62.98 1.48 13.73 Indonesia : 6.83 33.45 1.50 35.40 0.00 6.37 Selected other : China : 96.00 138.94 0.28 133.76 2.95 98.50 Japan : 2.49 8.35 0.64 9.45 0.20 1.83 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 3/ : 143.01 396.99 21.94 403.00 25.02 137.01 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.67 2.60 0.89 Total foreign : 142.15 391.05 21.60 399.33 22.42 136.12 Major exporters 4/ : 21.12 128.30 0.04 113.10 15.06 21.31 Thailand : 1.41 16.83 0.00 9.99 7.50 0.75 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 16.96 3.60 1.13 Major importers 5/ : 13.73 52.65 10.00 64.36 1.47 10.56 Indonesia : 6.37 32.00 1.30 35.88 0.00 3.80 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.23 134.34 1.70 94.23 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.73 9.30 0.60 1.30 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 137.31 392.82 23.14 404.38 23.47 125.75 January : 137.01 392.61 23.15 404.20 23.40 125.42 United States : December : 0.89 6.56 0.35 3.79 2.69 1.32 January : 0.89 6.57 0.35 3.78 2.71 1.31 Total foreign : December : 136.42 386.26 22.79 400.60 20.78 124.43 January : 136.12 386.04 22.80 400.42 20.68 124.11 Major exporters 4/ : December : 21.61 130.53 0.04 114.80 14.00 23.38 January : 21.31 130.17 0.04 114.85 14.40 22.27 Thailand Dec : 1.05 16.83 0.00 10.00 7.00 0.88 Jan : 0.75 16.83 0.00 10.05 7.00 0.53 Vietnam Dec : 1.13 20.60 0.04 17.10 4.00 0.67 Jan : 1.13 20.60 0.04 17.10 4.00 0.67 Major importers 5/ : December : 10.61 53.63 10.56 65.53 1.45 7.82 January : 10.56 53.71 10.56 65.49 1.45 7.89 Indonesia Dec : 3.80 32.50 1.60 36.36 0.00 1.54 Jan : 3.80 32.50 1.60 36.36 0.00 1.54 Selected other : China Dec : 94.12 126.70 0.31 134.61 2.00 84.53 Jan : 94.23 126.70 0.31 134.61 1.50 85.12 Japan Dec : 1.30 8.25 0.70 9.30 0.15 0.80 Jan : 1.30 8.25 0.70 9.30 0.15 0.80 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-382-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 26.64 159.88 47.72 136.25 160.56 46.67 27.01 United States : 9.48 72.22 0.11 42.94 47.43 26.49 7.90 Total foreign : 17.15 87.66 47.60 93.31 113.13 20.18 19.11 Major exporters 3/ : 12.97 58.30 1.46 38.98 41.99 17.41 13.34 Argentina : 6.16 21.20 0.47 17.08 18.02 4.13 5.68 Brazil : 6.80 34.20 1.00 21.20 23.19 11.16 7.65 Major importers 4/ : 3.60 17.38 37.97 39.22 52.56 1.28 5.11 EU-15 : 0.84 1.15 15.66 14.43 15.66 1.05 0.94 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.90 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 1.90 14.29 10.10 15.07 22.90 0.23 3.17 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 27.01 174.28 55.59 148.24 173.06 55.22 28.60 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.65 49.13 27.17 6.74 Total foreign : 19.11 99.22 55.50 103.59 123.93 28.05 21.86 Major exporters 3/ : 13.34 69.40 1.32 40.80 44.11 25.47 14.48 Argentina : 5.68 27.20 0.42 17.50 18.48 7.45 7.36 Brazil : 7.65 38.80 0.90 22.50 24.75 15.50 7.10 Major importers 4/ : 5.11 18.26 45.39 47.00 60.68 1.39 6.70 EU-15 : 0.94 1.04 18.83 17.34 18.76 1.16 0.88 Japan : 0.63 0.24 4.84 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 28.60 182.72 58.75 156.15 182.18 58.74 29.15 January : 28.60 182.83 59.38 156.73 182.86 59.26 28.69 United States : December : 6.75 79.55 0.11 45.45 50.21 27.22 8.98 January : 6.74 78.67 0.14 45.59 50.29 27.49 7.77 Total foreign : December : 21.86 103.17 58.64 110.70 131.97 31.52 20.17 January : 21.86 104.16 59.24 111.14 132.57 31.77 20.93 Major exporters 3/ : December : 14.48 73.65 1.30 43.30 46.91 29.02 13.50 January : 14.48 74.65 1.30 43.30 46.91 29.27 14.25 Argentina Dec : 7.36 28.75 0.40 19.50 20.53 9.00 6.98 Jan : 7.36 28.75 0.40 19.50 20.53 8.75 7.24 Brazil Dec : 7.10 41.50 0.90 23.00 25.50 17.50 6.50 Jan : 7.10 42.50 0.90 23.00 25.50 18.00 7.00 Major importers 4/ : December : 6.70 18.42 47.50 50.98 65.11 1.40 6.10 January : 6.70 18.42 47.70 51.04 65.30 1.41 6.11 EU-15 Dec : 0.88 1.25 19.58 18.16 19.63 1.16 0.91 Jan : 0.88 1.25 19.65 18.22 19.70 1.16 0.91 Japan Dec : 0.63 0.22 5.00 3.88 5.25 0.00 0.59 Jan : 0.63 0.22 5.00 3.88 5.25 0.00 0.59 China Dec : 4.91 15.30 14.00 21.70 29.70 0.22 4.29 Jan : 4.91 15.30 14.00 21.70 29.70 0.22 4.29 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-382-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 4.92 107.83 39.84 109.07 39.66 3.87 United States : 0.30 34.10 0.05 27.53 6.65 0.27 Total foreign : 4.62 73.73 39.80 81.54 33.01 3.60 Major exporters 3/ : 2.04 33.63 0.10 8.57 26.03 1.17 Argentina : 0.78 13.45 0.00 0.21 13.74 0.27 Brazil : 1.19 16.74 0.10 7.20 9.93 0.90 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.04 25.09 26.30 45.92 5.57 0.94 EU-15 : 0.86 11.47 19.81 25.87 5.54 0.73 China : 0.00 11.98 0.63 12.58 0.03 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.87 117.82 41.32 117.98 41.14 3.88 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.77 6.93 0.35 Total foreign : 3.60 82.08 41.28 89.21 34.21 3.54 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.32 0.18 9.08 26.50 1.09 Argentina : 0.27 14.00 0.00 0.22 13.95 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.79 0.18 7.38 10.50 0.99 India : 0.00 3.53 0.00 1.48 2.05 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 0.94 30.97 27.29 51.96 6.22 1.02 EU-15 : 0.73 13.78 20.36 28.05 6.11 0.71 China : 0.00 14.95 0.13 14.96 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 3.86 124.03 43.00 123.84 43.10 3.94 January : 3.88 124.47 43.50 124.53 43.34 3.99 United States : December : 0.35 36.23 0.05 29.35 7.03 0.25 January : 0.35 36.37 0.05 29.35 7.17 0.25 Total foreign : December : 3.51 87.80 42.96 94.49 36.07 3.70 January : 3.54 88.10 43.46 95.18 36.17 3.74 Major exporters 3/ : December : 1.09 37.60 0.24 9.42 28.30 1.21 January : 1.09 37.60 0.24 9.42 28.30 1.21 Argentina Dec : 0.10 15.60 0.00 0.23 15.25 0.22 Jan : 0.10 15.60 0.00 0.23 15.25 0.22 Brazil Dec : 0.99 18.25 0.24 7.64 10.85 0.99 Jan : 0.99 18.25 0.24 7.64 10.85 0.99 India Dec : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.55 2.20 0.00 Jan : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.55 2.20 0.00 Major importers 4/ : December : 1.01 33.91 28.08 55.66 6.26 1.08 January : 1.02 34.00 28.38 55.96 6.35 1.09 EU-15 Dec : 0.71 14.41 20.86 29.05 6.16 0.77 Jan : 0.71 14.49 20.86 29.10 6.19 0.78 China Dec : 0.00 17.16 0.30 17.36 0.10 0.00 Jan : 0.00 17.16 0.30 17.32 0.15 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-382-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 2.18 24.79 7.12 24.39 7.28 2.41 United States : 0.69 8.09 0.04 7.28 0.62 0.91 Total foreign : 1.49 16.70 7.08 17.11 6.66 1.51 Major exporters 3/ : 0.75 9.75 0.80 4.61 5.92 0.77 Argentina : 0.25 3.12 0.00 0.11 3.04 0.23 Brazil : 0.32 4.03 0.22 3.00 1.20 0.36 EU-15 : 0.18 2.60 0.58 1.50 1.69 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.28 1.57 4.69 0.08 0.29 China : 0.19 2.48 0.56 2.87 0.08 0.28 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.41 26.94 7.65 26.60 7.87 2.54 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.36 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.51 18.58 7.62 19.25 7.23 1.23 Major exporters 3/ : 0.77 10.66 0.85 5.21 6.53 0.54 Argentina : 0.23 3.22 0.00 0.11 3.24 0.10 Brazil : 0.36 4.32 0.21 3.10 1.53 0.26 EU-15 : 0.18 3.12 0.64 2.00 1.76 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 3.99 1.70 5.70 0.06 0.24 China : 0.28 3.15 0.08 3.22 0.06 0.23 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 2.49 28.41 8.51 28.40 8.62 2.40 January : 2.54 28.42 8.54 28.50 8.62 2.38 United States : December : 1.30 8.51 0.04 7.57 1.13 1.14 January : 1.30 8.47 0.04 7.58 1.13 1.10 Total foreign : December : 1.19 19.90 8.48 20.82 7.48 1.26 January : 1.23 19.95 8.51 20.93 7.48 1.28 Major exporters 3/ : December : 0.54 11.30 0.83 5.38 6.74 0.55 January : 0.54 11.31 0.83 5.39 6.74 0.55 Argentina Dec : 0.10 3.59 0.00 0.12 3.46 0.11 Jan : 0.10 3.59 0.00 0.12 3.46 0.11 Brazil Dec : 0.26 4.44 0.20 3.16 1.50 0.25 Jan : 0.26 4.44 0.20 3.16 1.50 0.25 EU-15 Dec : 0.18 3.27 0.63 2.10 1.78 0.19 Jan : 0.18 3.28 0.63 2.11 1.78 0.19 Major importers 4/ : December : 0.24 4.51 1.95 6.34 0.09 0.27 January : 0.24 4.51 1.95 6.34 0.09 0.27 China Dec : 0.23 3.62 0.40 3.90 0.09 0.27 Jan : 0.23 3.62 0.40 3.90 0.09 0.27 Pakistan Dec : 0.01 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.00 Jan : 0.01 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-382-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World : 45.13 87.35 28.46 91.90 27.27 0.20 41.57 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.24 6.75 0.09 3.92 Total foreign : 41.19 70.38 28.36 81.66 20.52 0.11 37.65 Major exporters 5/ : 12.96 39.74 2.49 25.26 15.71 -0.09 14.31 Pakistan : 1.71 8.60 0.48 7.65 0.42 0.03 2.70 India : 4.75 12.18 1.60 13.55 0.07 0.00 4.91 Central Asia 6/ : 1.50 7.30 0.01 1.29 5.78 0.00 1.74 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.09 3.88 4/ 0.22 3.74 0.00 1.01 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.93 5.28 0.28 1.20 4.34 -0.14 3.09 Australia : 2.09 3.46 4/ 0.19 3.21 -0.16 2.31 Argentina : 0.49 0.57 0.04 0.40 0.32 0.01 0.38 Major importers : 26.53 27.71 19.58 48.49 3.65 0.20 21.48 Brazil : 1.02 3.10 1.55 4.10 0.01 0.00 1.56 Mexico : 0.56 0.67 1.81 2.40 0.13 0.03 0.49 China : 21.13 17.60 0.12 22.20 1.69 0.00 14.96 Europe : 1.62 2.66 5.16 6.06 1.53 0.08 1.78 Turkey : 0.59 3.63 2.40 5.60 0.20 0.00 0.83 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.04 8.54 8.14 0.09 0.10 1.87 Indonesia : 0.22 0.01 2.08 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.24 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.52 1.48 0.02 0.00 0.43 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World : 41.57 88.52 26.90 92.05 26.40 -0.41 38.96 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.88 6.76 -0.52 6.00 Total foreign : 37.65 71.34 26.88 83.17 19.63 0.11 32.96 Major exporters 5/ : 14.31 37.19 2.32 25.71 15.57 -0.09 12.63 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.90 1.55 13.40 0.05 0.00 3.91 Central Asia 6/ : 1.74 6.44 0.01 1.59 5.08 0.00 1.51 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.01 3.22 4/ 0.22 3.16 0.00 0.85 S. Hemis. 8/ : 3.09 5.84 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.87 Australia : 2.31 3.70 4/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.44 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 21.48 30.92 18.12 49.28 2.72 0.20 18.33 Brazil : 1.56 4.10 0.75 4.35 0.38 0.00 1.69 Mexico : 0.49 0.36 1.95 2.10 0.10 0.03 0.57 China : 14.96 20.30 0.23 23.50 0.45 0.00 11.54 Europe : 1.78 2.49 5.09 5.96 1.62 0.08 1.71 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.75 5.10 0.12 0.00 0.96 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.87 0.07 8.34 8.27 0.06 0.10 1.86 Indonesia : 0.24 0.03 2.65 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.46 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.42 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.44 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 2.16 million bales in 1999/00 and 2.21 million in 2000/2001. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-382-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World : December : 38.94 96.00 28.74 91.62 28.47 0.08 43.51 January : 38.96 96.68 28.69 91.75 28.39 0.10 44.08 United States : December : 6.00 20.06 0.01 7.90 9.80 -0.02 8.40 January : 6.00 20.08 0.01 7.70 9.80 0.00 8.60 Total foreign : December : 32.94 75.94 28.73 83.72 18.67 0.11 35.11 January : 32.96 76.59 28.68 84.05 18.59 0.11 35.48 Major exporters 5/ : December : 12.63 39.14 2.94 25.92 14.85 -0.09 14.03 January : 12.63 38.82 3.04 25.74 14.75 -0.09 14.08 Pakistan Dec : 2.65 8.00 0.75 8.25 0.35 0.03 2.77 Jan : 2.65 7.60 0.85 8.20 0.20 0.03 2.67 India Dec : 3.91 11.80 1.80 13.30 0.05 0.00 4.16 Jan : 3.91 11.80 1.80 13.20 0.05 0.00 4.26 Central Asia 6/Dec : 1.51 7.19 0.01 1.82 5.01 0.00 1.87 Jan : 1.51 7.19 0.01 1.82 5.01 0.00 1.87 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Dec : 0.85 4.41 4/ 0.22 3.75 0.00 1.28 Jan : 0.85 4.48 4/ 0.22 3.80 0.00 1.30 S. Hemis 8/ Dec : 2.87 4.90 0.26 1.02 4.22 -0.14 2.92 Jan : 2.87 4.78 0.26 0.97 4.20 -0.14 2.87 Australia Dec : 2.10 3.00 4/ 0.15 3.05 -0.16 2.06 Jan : 2.10 3.00 4/ 0.15 3.05 -0.16 2.06 Argentina Dec : 0.32 0.45 0.02 0.30 0.23 0.01 0.26 Jan : 0.32 0.33 0.02 0.25 0.20 0.01 0.22 Major importers Dec : 18.31 33.76 19.11 49.45 2.54 0.19 19.00 Jan : 18.33 34.68 18.96 49.95 2.54 0.19 19.29 Brazil Dec : 1.69 3.30 1.30 4.20 0.35 0.00 1.74 Jan : 1.69 3.30 1.30 4.20 0.35 0.00 1.74 Mexico Dec : 0.57 0.44 1.75 2.00 0.10 0.03 0.64 Jan : 0.57 0.44 1.65 1.90 0.10 0.03 0.64 China Dec : 11.54 23.50 0.70 23.50 0.40 0.00 11.84 Jan : 11.54 24.40 0.40 24.00 0.40 0.00 11.94 Europe Dec : 1.71 2.41 5.09 5.93 1.47 0.07 1.73 Jan : 1.71 2.41 5.09 5.93 1.47 0.07 1.73 Turkey Dec : 0.96 4.05 1.75 5.50 0.15 0.00 1.11 Jan : 0.96 4.05 2.00 5.60 0.15 0.00 1.26 Sel. Asia 9/ Dec : 1.84 0.06 8.53 8.32 0.07 0.10 1.94 Jan : 1.86 0.08 8.53 8.32 0.07 0.10 1.98 Indonesia Dec : 0.44 0.01 2.50 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.49 Jan : 0.46 0.04 2.50 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.53 S. Korea Dec : 0.44 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.02 0.00 0.42 Jan : 0.44 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.02 0.00 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.26 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-382-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2000 : Annual : 26777 18928 46150 30495 5402 36427 82577 7035 167.7 : 2001 : I : 6182 4805 11096 7547 1332 9007 20103 1756 41.3 II : 6501 4544 11145 7926 1378 9437 20582 1775 42.7 III : 6720 4547 11367 7831 1388 9348 20715 1785 40.6 IV : 6680 5250 12038 7800 1425 9345 21383 1830 40.8 Annual : Dec Proj : 26053 19121 45591 31130 5499 37136 82727 7146 165.4 Jan Est : 26083 19146 45646 31105 5524 37136 82782 7146 165.4 : 2002 : I*: 6450 4750 11307 7775 1350 9250 20557 1800 42.1 II*: 6425 4540 11058 8125 1425 9680 20738 1790 43.8 III*: 6550 4700 11342 8025 1400 9550 20892 1815 41.7 IV*: 5975 5175 11247 8000 1425 9545 20792 1865 41.8 Annual : Dec Proj : 25375 19125 44883 31925 5600 38025 82908 7270 169.7 Jan Proj : 25400 19165 44954 31925 5600 38025 82979 7270 169.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2000 : Annual : 69.65 44.70 56.2 70.5 68.9 12.33 : 2001 : I : 79.11 42.83 57.8 61.7 75.8 13.37 II : 75.13 52.05 59.2 65.0 63.3 15.30 III : 70.33 51.05 61.1 67.1 61.4 16.53 IV : 65.09 37.30 58.5 71.4 68.2 14.57 Annual : Dec Proj : 72.52 45.86 59.2 66.6 67.8 14.90-15.00 Jan Est : 72.42 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.94 : 2002 : I*: 66-68 41-43 56-58 60-62 67-69 13.10-13.50 II*: 74-80 47-51 57-61 63-67 56-60 12.25-12.95 III*: 78-84 44-48 59-63 64-70 58-62 12.45-13.45 IV*: 79-85 38-42 57-61 70-76 70-76 13.65-14.65 Annual : Dec Proj : 74-80 42-45 57-61 64-69 62-67 12.85-13.65 Jan Proj : 74-79 43-46 57-61 64-69 63-67 12.85-13.65 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-382-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 2000 : 411 26888 3031 30330 2468 525 27337 69.5 2001 Est. Dec : 525 26159 3182 29866 2211 480 27175 68.4 Jan : 525 26189 3182 29896 2211 520 27165 68.4 2002 Proj. Dec : 480 25481 3245 29206 2160 385 26661 66.6 Jan : 520 25506 3245 29271 2160 385 26726 66.7 : PORK : 2000 : 489 18952 967 20408 1287 477 18644 52.5 2001 Est. Dec : 477 19151 952 20580 1510 500 18570 51.8 Jan : 477 19176 972 20625 1535 500 18590 51.9 2002 Proj. Dec : 500 19155 960 20615 1430 500 18685 51.7 Jan : 500 19195 960 20655 1450 500 18705 51.8 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 2000 : 914 46299 4128 51341 3761 1020 46560 123.8 2001 Est. Dec : 1020 45740 4284 51044 3727 997 46320 122.1 Jan : 1020 45795 4299 51114 3752 1035 46327 122.1 2002 Proj. Dec : 997 45032 4360 50389 3594 903 45892 120.0 Jan : 1035 45103 4360 50498 3614 903 45981 120.2 : BROILERS : 2000 : 796 30209 6 31011 5392 798 24821 77.4 2001 Est. Dec : 798 30803 11 31612 6127 675 24810 76.7 Jan : 798 30778 11 31587 6127 700 24760 76.5 2002 Proj. Dec : 675 31583 8 32266 6350 700 25216 77.3 Jan : 700 31583 8 32291 6350 700 25241 77.4 : TURKEYS : 2000 : 254 5333 1 5589 445 241 4902 17.8 2001 Est. Dec : 241 5427 1 5670 504 250 4915 17.7 Jan : 241 5452 1 5694 494 250 4949 17.8 2002 Proj. Dec : 250 5527 1 5778 495 275 5007 17.9 Jan : 250 5527 1 5778 495 275 5007 17.9 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 2000 : 1058 36073 9 37140 6058 1048 30034 96.3 2001 Est. Dec : 1048 36738 15 37801 6792 933 30074 95.6 Jan : 1048 36738 15 37800 6782 956 30061 95.6 2002 Proj. Dec : 933 37610 11 38554 6985 985 30582 96.4 Jan : 956 37610 11 38576 6985 985 30605 96.5 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2000 : 1972 82372 4137 88480 9818 2068 76594 220.2 2001 Est. Dec : 2068 82478 4299 88845 10519 1930 76394 217.7 Jan : 2068 82533 4314 88914 10534 1991 76388 217.7 2002 Proj. Dec : 1930 82642 4371 88943 10579 1888 76474 216.4 Jan : 1991 82713 4371 89074 10599 1888 76586 216.7 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-382-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2001 Estimated : 2002 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1999 : 2000 : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 8.4 7.6 11.4 11.4 13.0 10.0 Production : 6912.0 7034.9 7145.6 7145.6 7270.0 7270.0 Imports : 7.4 8.4 9.1 9.1 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 6927.8 7051.0 7166.0 7166.0 7291.0 7288.0 : Use : Exports : 161.9 171.1 179.0 184.0 165.0 165.0 Hatching use : 941.7 940.2 951.7 951.7 985.0 985.0 Ending stocks : 7.6 11.4 13.0 10.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5816.6 5928.2 6022.3 6020.3 6129.0 6126.0 Per capita (number) : 255.7 258.3 260.0 259.9 262.4 262.3 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Est 1/: 2001/02 Proj 1/ Commodity :1998/99:1999/00:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.8 7.4 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.6 Production : 161.2 167.4 165.3 165.3 168.7 168.3 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 159.8 166.1 164.0 164.0 167.5 167.1 Imports 2/ : 4.8 4.6 5.5 5.5 4.7 4.8 Total cml. supply 2/ : 170.5 178.2 178.4 178.4 180.8 180.5 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 162.8 168.5 169.5 169.5 172.6 172.1 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 7.4 8.9 8.6 8.6 8.0 8.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 5.4 8.5 6.3 6.3 3.1 3.8 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 14.04 9.99 12.29 12.29 11.30- 11.45- : 11.90 11.95 : Class IV : NA 11.51 13.88 13.88 11.55- 11.60- : 12.35 12.30 : All milk 6/ : 15.38 12.61 14.48 14.48 13.05- 13.10- : 13.65 13.60 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 11 0 0 5 5 Cheese : 6 17 16 16 3 3 Nonfat dry milk : 449 690 525 525 265 325 Dry whole milk : 12 34 3 3 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-382-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 20-year record of the differences between the January projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the January projection and the final estimate have averaged 3.4 million tons (0.6%) ranging from -8.3 to 6.4 million tons. The January projection has been below the estimate 14 times and above 6 times. Reliability of January Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.6 3.4 -8.3 6.4 14 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 9 5 Foreign : 0.7 3.4 -8.3 6.4 14 6 Exports : World : 3.2 3.7 -14.0 5.2 12 8 U.S. : 4.0 1.4 -3.9 2.7 10 10 Foreign : 4.3 3.5 -12.6 5.6 14 6 Domestic use : World : 1.0 5.5 -14.3 11.0 12 8 U.S. : 4.3 1.3 -2.6 3.0 8 12 Foreign : 1.0 5.2 -14.8 8.6 12 8 Ending stocks : World : 4.2 5.1 -11.5 8.1 13 7 U.S. : 7.9 1.8 -4.6 3.3 12 8 Foreign : 4.4 4.1 -10.3 5.2 13 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.8 6.8 -17.9 8.2 11 9 U.S. : 0.2 0.5 -4.6 1.3 11 5 Foreign : 1.1 6.5 -17.3 8.2 11 9 Exports : World : 4.3 4.4 -10.8 13.3 14 6 U.S. : 9.3 4.8 -11.1 12.4 11 9 Foreign : 7.9 4.1 -8.9 8.0 10 10 Domestic use : World : 0.9 7.7 -16.0 29.0 8 12 U.S. : 2.7 4.8 -18.8 11.5 9 11 Foreign : 1.0 6.4 -10.9 22.8 12 8 Ending stocks : World : 7.5 10.7 -31.8 17.6 15 5 U.S. : 10.1 6.0 -24.3 20.8 11 8 Foreign : 10.1 7.3 -19.3 10.8 16 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.5 5.1 -13.9 1.8 17 3 U.S. : 1.2 0.1 -0.3 0.2 6 3 Foreign : 1.5 5.1 -13.9 1.8 17 3 Exports : World : 7.5 1.3 -5.4 1.0 15 5 U.S. : 5.8 0.2 -0.6 0.2 10 8 Foreign : 8.8 1.3 -5.2 1.0 14 6 Domestic use : World : 1.2 3.8 -12.3 1.9 16 4 U.S. : 6.0 0.2 -0.4 0.5 10 10 Foreign : 1.2 3.8 -12.4 2.2 17 3 Ending stocks : World : 8.0 3.2 -13.0 3.9 15 5 U.S. : 17.7 0.2 -0.3 0.6 10 9 Foreign : 8.3 3.2 -13.3 3.8 15 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-382-32 Reliability of January Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.9 2.4 -6.2 2.9 13 7 U.S. : 1.2 0.7 -1.6 1.8 8 10 Foreign : 3.9 2.3 -6.5 2.6 14 6 Exports : World : 4.6 1.6 -7.9 2.7 13 7 U.S. : 6.3 1.3 -2.9 4.3 11 9 Foreign : 16.0 1.7 -7.2 2.1 12 8 Domestic use : World : 2.5 3.0 -5.7 3.6 13 7 U.S. : 2.6 1.0 -3.6 0.8 13 7 Foreign : 3.0 2.4 -5.3 3.6 13 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.6 2.0 -5.1 5.0 11 9 U.S. : 21.3 1.6 -2.6 4.9 5 15 Foreign : 15.2 1.9 -7.1 2.7 13 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 1.9 1.6 -5.4 3.6 12 7 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 5 14 Foreign : 2.4 1.7 -5.7 3.5 13 6 Exports : World : 3.7 0.9 -2.7 1.0 9 11 U.S. : 7.7 0.4 -1.0 0.8 11 9 Foreign : 4.8 0.9 -3.4 1.0 11 9 Mill use : World : 2.0 1.6 -6.3 1.8 9 11 U.S. : 4.0 0.3 -0.9 0.9 13 6 Foreign : 2.0 1.5 -5.8 2.0 10 10 Ending stocks : World : 8.7 2.9 -6.1 8.1 11 9 U.S. : 15.6 0.7 -1.9 2.1 6 14 Foreign : 8.9 2.7 -6.3 7.6 12 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 20 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-382-33 Reliability of United States January Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.2 17 -148 38 4 1 Exports : 9.6 168 -379 384 10 10 Domestic use : 2.8 170 -574 345 9 11 Ending stocks : 12.2 243 -986 838 12 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.4 4 -53 14 1 3 Exports : 14.6 35 -90 97 14 5 Domestic use : 10.6 49 -148 127 9 11 Ending stocks : 30.9 33 -78 98 8 12 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 9 3 Exports : 14.6 10 -37 23 7 11 Domestic use : 5.1 20 -43 70 10 9 Ending stocks : 8.3 14 -52 18 13 7 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 4 2 Exports : 47.1 1 -1 7 4 6 Domestic use : 3.4 14 -39 36 12 8 Ending stocks : 11.6 15 -47 34 10 10 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.5 771 -2728 713 13 7 Exports : 8.4 577 -2050 1050 12 8 Domestic use : 2.2 522 -1200 691 13 7 Ending stocks : 32.4 80 -214 188 8 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.5 361 -1418 575 14 6 Exports : 18.9 290 -800 839 9 11 Domestic use : 2.3 287 -885 400 15 5 Ending stocks : 17.4 257 -583 538 11 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.1 741 -666 2111 13 5 Pork : 3.0 492 1240 1717 12 6 Broilers : 1.7 354 -937 512 11 7 Turkeys : 2.3 97 -177 181 12 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 85 -127 169 11 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.8 -5.1 5.6 8 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 20 for crops and 18 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2000 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1999/2000 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-382-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------- End of File ----------