ISSN: 1554-9089 WASDE-430 January 12, 2006 Note: Beginning February 7, 2006, there will be three ways to access the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report: - http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde - PDF File: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf - Text File: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.txt WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2005/06 wheat ending stocks are 542 million bushels, 12 million bushels more than last month. Estimated total wheat production is 2,105 million bushels, up 7 million bushels based on increased harvested area. Total domestic use and exports are unchanged but changes are made in use and stocks by class. Hard Red Spring wheat stocks are up 20 million bushels and Soft Red Winter wheat stocks are down 14 million bushels from last month. There are smaller changes in the stocks of the other wheat classes. The projected 2005/06 price range is $3.25 to $3.50 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Global wheat production in 2005/06 is up slightly, consumption is down fractionally, exports and imports increase fractionally, and ending stocks rise slightly. Foreign production is up nearly 1 million tons due primarily to larger crops in China and EU-25, partially offset by smaller crops in Kazakhstan and Russia. Projected foreign exports are up because of larger exports by Paraguay and Bulgaria. Foreign consumption is down, with the largest month-to- month decrease occurring in Russia. Forecast foreign ending stocks are up 1 million tons due to larger stocks in China, EU-25, Croatia, and Bulgaria, partially offset by smaller stocks in Kazakhstan and Paraguay. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2005/06 U.S. corn stocks rise slightly from last month due to increased production that is nearly offset by higher use. Estimated 2005/06 corn production is up 80 million bushels based on increased harvested area, partially offset by lower yields. Projected 2005/06 exports are down 50 million bushels from last month based on the slow pace of sales, increased competition, and reduced imports by Canada. Projected feed and residual use is up 125 million bushels because of strong use in the first quarter. No changes are made to projected U.S. 2005/06 corn food, seed, and industrial use. Ending stocks are up 7 million bushels to 2,426 million, and are 314 million larger than the previous year. The projected price range for 2005/06 corn is $1.75 to $2.05 per bushel, up 15 cents on the low end and 5 cents on the upper end from last month. The price is raised because prices received by farmers (reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service) have been above cash prices. This suggests that farmers forward contracted a substantial portion of the crop when prices were higher. Estimated 2005/06 sorghum production is up 6 million bushels based on larger harvested area. There are no changes in forecast exports or food, seed, and industrial use. However, feed and residual use is down 10 million bushels from last month due to smaller-than-expected use in the first quarter of the marketing year. Projected ending stocks are up 16 million bushels from last month. Grain sorghum prices are projected to average $1.55 to $1.85, up 10 cents on the low end of the range from last month. Estimated 2005/06 barley production is down fractionally. Forecast feed and residual use is down 10 million bushels and stocks rise 10 million from last month. Projected prices are unchanged from last month. Estimated 2005/06 oats production is down fractionally. Forecast feed and residual use is down 5 million bushels and stocks rise 5 million from last month. Projected prices are unchanged from last month. The outlook for global coarse grains in 2005/06 is for larger production, little change in consumption, slightly reduced trade, and higher stocks relative to last month. Foreign production is up nearly 2.7 million tons with the largest increases projected in China and EU-25. These gains are partially offset by smaller crops in Russia and Argentina. Foreign 2005/06 coarse grain consumption is down 3.6 million tons with large decreases projected in Russia and Brazil as well as other countries. Imports are projected down for Canada, Brazil, and Israel but up for EU- 25 and several other countries. In addition to the lower projected exports from the United States, exports decline for Argentina but rise for Brazil. Foreign 2005/06 ending stocks rise 9.2 million tons from last month. The largest increases in foreign stocks occur in Brazil, China, and EU-25. Brazil's 2005/06 beginning stocks are up over 4 million tons due to revisions to domestic use and stocks estimates for previous years. The largest decline in foreign ending stocks are projected for Canada and Russia. RICE: The U.S. 2005/06 rice crop is estimated at a near-record 223.2 million cwt, up 2.5 million cwt from last month, but 9.1 million cwt below revised 2004/05 record crop. Average yield for 2005/06 is estimated at 6,636 pounds per acre, up 33 pounds per acre from last month, but 352 pounds per acre below the record 2004/05. Planted area is estimated at 3.384 million acres, up 19,000 acres from November and up slightly from 2004/05. Projected imports for 2005/06 are lowered 0.5 million cwt to 13.5 million cwt based on a slower- than-expected pace of medium- and short-grain imports through October. Total domestic and residual use is projected at a record 127.1 million cwt, up slightly from last month. The upward revision is based in part on implied use from December 1 stocks. Projected exports remain at 121 million cwt, up nearly 11 million cwt from a year earlier. Ending stocks for 2005/06 are projected at 26.3 million cwt, up 1.1 million cwt from last month, but down 11.4 million cwt from 2004/05. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $7.65 to $7.95 per cwt, compared with $7.33 in 2004/05. Global production, consumption, and ending stocks for 2005/06 are nearly unchanged from a month ago, while exports and imports are larger. Global exports are raised 0.8 million tons due to increases for Australia, China, and Pakistan. Imports are up 0.7 million tons owing mostly to an increase for the Philippines. Global ending stocks at 66.1 million tons are up slightly from last month, down 7.0 million tons from 2004/05, and the lowest stocks since 1982/83. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2005/06 is estimated at 96.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons from last month, and up 0.5 million tons from last year. Although soybean production accounts for most of the increase, sunflowerseed, canola, cottonseed, and peanut production are also higher. Soybean production is estimated at 3,086 million bushels, up 43 million bushels from last month based on higher yields and slightly higher harvested area. Soybean exports are reduced 70 million bushels to 950 million bushels primarily due to continuing weak sales to EU-25 and China. Export competition from South America has been unusually strong in recent months, reflecting large available supplies from record 2004/05 soybean crops. Soybean crush is raised this month due to a lower meal extraction rate. Soybean stocks are projected at 505 million bushels, up 100 million bushels from last month. The U.S. season average soybean price range for 2005/06 is projected at $5.10 to $5.80 per bushel, up 10 cents on both ends of the range. Prices are raised based on a higher-than-expected season average price to date. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 20.5 to 22.5 cents per pound compared with 20.5 to 23.5 last month. Soybean meal prices are projected at $165 to $180 per short ton compared with $155 to $180 last month. Global oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at a record 389.0 million tons, up 2.0 million tons. Foreign production is projected at 292.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. Global sunflowerseed production is projected at 29.9 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last month. Russia's sunflowerseed crop is raised 600,000 tons to 6.4 million tons due to higher yields. Other oilseed production changes include a increased rapeseed production for India and EU-25, and reduced palm oil production for Malaysia. Brazil soybean production for 2004/05 is raised 2 million tons to 53 million tons, a record despite drought in southern Brazil. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2005/06 is decreased 75,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower production projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Lower cane sugar production in Florida and Hawaii more than offsets an increase in Louisiana. Beet sugar production is lowered marginally. Use is unchanged and ending stocks are decreased to 1.3 million tons, or 12.7 percent of use. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2006 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. trading partners. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. Small changes are made to U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 and 2006. Beef and pork production forecasts for 2005 are slightly changed to reflect preliminary December slaughter information. Beef production in 2006 is raised to reflect increased cattle imports. Although the December 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated stability in U.S. pork production, increased swine imports result in higher 2006 pork production. Poultry meat production forecasts are raised in 2005 because preliminary production data points to higher last quarter output. Turkey hatchery data indicates slightly higher turkey production in the first half of 2006. Forecast beef imports in 2005 are reduced from last month, and beef exports are unchanged. Beef imports in 2006 are lowered slightly as reduced shipments from Canada more than offset gains from other markets. Beef exports for 2006 are raised because the United States now has access to Japan and Hong Kong markets. Pork exports in 2006 are reduced slightly due to lower exports to Asia as beef exports increase. However, the decline is partly offset by increased pork sales to other markets. Broiler exports in 2005 and 2006 are reduced, in part reflecting consumer reactions to recent avian influenza discoveries in several markets. The forecast cattle price for 2006 is increased as supplies of Choice grade cattle remain tight and exports to Japan gradually increase. Hog price for 2006 is unchanged. Broiler prices in 2006 are reduced as current broiler prices have weakened. Milk supply and use forecasts for 2005 and 2006 are little changed from last month. Whey and butter price forecasts are changed fractionally from last month, but the Class III and Class IV milk price forecasts are unchanged. The all milk price forecast for 2006 is raised slightly to $13.40 to $14.20 per cwt. COTTON: The U.S. 2005/06 forecasts for domestic mill use, exports, and ending stocks are unchanged from last month. The U.S. production forecast is raised a nominal 16,000 bales. The 2005/06 world supply and demand forecasts for production, trade, and ending stocks are also virtually unchanged from last month. World consumption is raised slightly, reflecting increases for India and Mexico. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 32. APPROVED: CHARLES F. CONNER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 9, 2006. In 2006, the WASDE report will be released on March 10, April 10, May 12, June 9, July 12, August 11, September 12, October 12, November 9, and December 11. 2006 Agricultural Outlook Forum: Prospering in Rural America USDA invites you to attend the 2006 Agricultural Outlook Forum, February 16-17, 2006, in Arlington, Virginia. Among the Forum's speakers are Secretary Mike Johanns and other top officials, industry analysts, business leaders, farmers and ranchers, and experts in agriculture. The Forum offers more than 130 speakers along with numerous networking opportunities 1,500 people are expected to attend. For more information, visit: http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. Mail: Government Printing Office, Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-0001. ELECTRONIC ACCESS This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically in either ascii text format or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. Click on the "Reports by E-Mail" button to sign up for e-mail delivery of the WASDE and other USDA releases in text format. An electronic calendar of USDA release dates is posted at: http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/rptcal/calindex.htm. WASDE-430-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 1,858.85 2,304.03 240.28 1,946.31 357.72 2004/05 (Est.) : 2,037.01 2,394.73 238.95 1,994.40 400.33 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 1,975.79 2,371.60 236.27 2,007.60 363.99 January : 1,981.77 2,382.10 235.83 2,006.40 375.70 Wheat : 2003/04 : 554.59 720.70 109.38 588.48 132.22 2004/05 (Est.) : 626.64 758.86 110.45 608.75 150.12 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 615.33 765.43 110.09 622.08 143.35 January : 616.43 766.54 110.29 621.84 144.70 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 912.87 1,081.63 103.49 942.15 139.47 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,008.22 1,147.69 100.90 970.55 177.14 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 953.63 1,126.46 100.77 971.64 154.82 January : 958.46 1,135.61 99.36 970.71 164.90 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 391.38 501.70 27.41 415.68 86.02 2004/05 (Est.) : 402.15 488.18 27.60 415.11 73.07 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 406.83 479.71 25.41 413.88 65.83 January : 406.88 479.94 26.19 413.84 66.10 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 345.33 395.10 88.59 262.12 44.40 2004/05 (Est.) : 385.61 434.54 83.76 276.07 74.71 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 360.67 439.84 84.34 274.42 81.08 January : 363.10 442.43 83.07 277.08 82.28 Wheat : 2003/04 : 63.81 78.90 31.52 32.51 14.87 2004/05 (Est.) : 58.74 75.53 28.92 31.91 14.70 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 57.11 73.98 27.22 32.33 14.43 January : 57.28 74.29 27.22 32.33 14.75 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 275.10 308.48 53.75 225.96 28.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 319.42 350.38 51.30 240.28 58.80 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 296.56 357.19 53.28 238.07 65.84 January : 298.74 359.42 52.01 240.70 66.70 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 6.42 7.73 3.31 3.66 0.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 7.46 8.64 3.54 3.89 1.21 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 7.01 8.66 3.84 4.02 0.80 January : 7.09 8.73 3.84 4.05 0.84 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-430-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 1,513.51 1,908.93 151.70 1,684.19 313.32 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,651.40 1,960.19 155.19 1,718.33 325.62 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 1,615.12 1,931.76 151.93 1,733.18 282.92 January : 1,618.66 1,939.66 152.77 1,729.31 293.42 Wheat : 2003/04 : 490.78 641.80 77.86 555.97 117.35 2004/05 (Est.) : 567.90 683.33 81.53 576.84 135.42 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 558.22 691.45 82.88 589.75 128.92 January : 559.15 692.25 83.08 589.51 129.95 Coarse grains 5/ : 2003/04 : 637.77 773.15 49.74 716.19 110.71 2004/05 (Est.) : 688.80 797.31 49.60 730.27 118.34 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 657.08 769.26 47.49 733.57 88.98 January : 659.73 776.19 47.35 730.01 98.19 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 384.96 493.98 24.10 412.02 85.26 2004/05 (Est.) : 394.70 479.54 24.06 411.22 71.86 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 399.82 471.04 21.57 409.86 65.02 January : 399.79 471.22 22.35 409.79 65.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2003/04 : 95.26 137.60 33.25 98.08 40.72 2004/05 (Est.) : 120.38 161.09 34.70 108.65 51.62 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 112.29 163.80 41.30 114.85 50.92 January : 112.36 163.97 41.44 115.24 50.77 : United States 2003/04 : 18.26 23.69 13.76 6.22 3.51 2004/05 (Est.) : 23.25 26.79 14.41 6.69 5.54 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 23.70 29.28 16.40 6.00 6.90 January : 23.72 29.30 16.40 6.00 6.90 : Foreign 3/ 2003/04 : 77.01 113.91 19.49 91.86 37.21 2004/05 (Est.) : 97.13 134.31 20.29 101.95 46.08 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 88.58 134.52 24.90 108.85 44.02 January : 88.64 134.68 25.04 109.24 43.87 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-430-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 334.89 379.81 67.11 278.42 40.83 2004/05 (Est.) : 380.49 421.31 75.09 301.77 52.45 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 386.99 436.54 79.43 313.41 56.57 January : 388.98 441.43 78.44 312.20 62.13 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 189.36 195.73 58.35 189.24 5.93 2004/05 (Est.) : 205.10 211.03 59.76 204.06 6.08 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 213.82 218.61 61.39 212.55 5.07 January : 212.93 219.01 62.01 212.12 6.19 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 101.64 109.24 38.63 100.49 7.40 2004/05 (Est.) : 110.30 117.70 41.86 108.39 7.83 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 114.96 122.54 44.09 113.98 7.49 January : 114.24 122.07 43.86 113.51 7.69 : : United States Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 76.60 82.94 25.16 45.53 4.15 2004/05 (Est.) : 95.98 100.81 30.86 50.17 8.29 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 95.08 103.92 28.74 51.60 12.62 January : 96.44 105.29 26.85 51.85 15.46 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 35.21 37.30 4.94 32.08 0.27 2004/05 (Est.) : 39.23 41.06 6.94 33.91 0.22 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 39.73 41.45 6.33 34.81 0.30 January : 39.62 41.34 6.27 34.79 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 8.77 11.60 0.74 10.06 0.80 2004/05 (Est.) : 9.74 12.43 0.84 10.51 1.08 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 10.23 13.25 0.95 10.92 1.38 January : 10.35 13.38 0.95 10.99 1.44 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 258.29 296.88 41.95 232.89 36.67 2004/05 (Est.) : 284.51 320.50 44.24 251.60 44.16 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 291.91 332.62 50.69 261.80 43.94 January : 292.54 336.14 51.59 260.35 46.67 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 154.15 158.44 53.41 157.17 5.66 2004/05 (Est.) : 165.86 169.97 52.82 170.16 5.87 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 174.10 177.17 55.05 177.74 4.77 January : 173.31 177.67 55.74 177.34 5.90 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 92.87 97.65 37.89 90.43 6.61 2004/05 (Est.) : 100.56 105.27 41.02 97.88 6.75 2005/06 (Proj.) : December : 104.73 109.29 43.14 103.05 6.11 January : 103.89 108.70 42.92 102.53 6.25 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-430-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.1 59.7 57.1 57.2 Harvested : 53.1 50.0 50.0 50.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 44.2 43.2 42.0 42.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 491 546 540 540 Production : 2,345 2,158 2,098 2,105 Imports : 63 71 80 85 Supply, total : 2,899 2,775 2,718 2,730 Food : 912 905 910 910 Seed : 80 79 78 78 Feed and residual : 203 189 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,194 1,172 1,188 1,188 Exports : 1,158 1,063 1,000 1,000 Use, total : 2,353 2,235 2,188 2,188 Ending stocks : 546 540 530 542 CCC inventory : 61 54 40 40 Free stocks : 485 486 490 502 Outstanding loans : 37 58 55 55 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.40 3.40 3.25- 3.50 3.25- 3.50 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2004/05 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 157 64 72 26 546 Production : 856 525 380 306 90 2,158 Supply, total 3/ : 1,084 690 466 390 145 2,775 Domestic use : 503 217 256 120 76 1,172 Exports : 388 314 122 207 31 1,063 Use, total : 891 531 378 327 108 2,235 Ending stocks, total : 193 159 88 62 38 540 : 2005/06 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 193 159 88 62 38 540 Production : 930 467 309 298 101 2,105 Supply, total 3/ : 1,124 644 420 375 168 2,730 Domestic use : 506 222 270 112 79 1,188 Exports : 445 280 75 170 30 1,000 Use, total : 950 502 344 282 109 2,188 Ending stocks, total : January : 173 141 76 93 59 542 December : 173 121 90 89 58 530 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-430-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.0 97.0 96.3 96.3 Harvested : 85.7 86.0 85.1 85.9 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.21 3.71 3.48 3.47 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 30.9 28.7 58.7 58.8 Production : 274.9 319.2 296.4 298.5 Imports : 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 Supply, total : 308.2 350.0 356.9 359.1 Feed and residual : 155.7 166.1 157.1 159.7 Food, seed & industrial : 69.9 73.9 80.7 80.7 Domestic, total : 225.7 239.9 237.8 240.4 Exports : 53.8 51.3 53.3 52.0 Use, total : 279.4 291.2 291.0 292.4 Ending stocks, total : 28.7 58.8 65.8 66.7 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 28.7 58.8 65.8 66.7 Outstanding loans : 4.4 7.2 7.7 7.7 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.6 80.9 81.6 81.8 Harvested : 70.9 73.6 74.3 75.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 142.2 160.4 148.4 147.9 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,087 958 2,112 2,114 Production : 10,089 11,807 11,032 11,112 Imports : 14 11 10 10 Supply, total : 11,190 12,776 13,154 13,236 Feed and residual : 5,795 6,162 5,875 6,000 Food, seed & industrial : 2,537 2,686 2,960 2,960 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 1,168 1,323 1,575 1,575 Domestic, total : 8,332 8,848 8,835 8,960 Exports : 1,900 1,814 1,900 1,850 Use, total : 10,232 10,662 10,735 10,810 Ending stocks, total : 958 2,114 2,419 2,426 CCC inventory : 0 1 1 1 Free stocks : 958 2,113 2,418 2,425 Outstanding loans : 164 280 300 300 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.42 2.06 1.60- 2.00 1.75- 2.05 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-430-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.4 7.5 6.5 6.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.8 6.5 5.7 5.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 52.7 69.6 68.2 68.7 Beginning stocks : 43 34 57 57 Production : 411 454 388 394 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 454 487 445 451 Feed and residual : 182 191 160 150 Food, seed & industrial : 40 55 55 55 Total domestic : 222 246 215 205 Exports : 199 184 170 170 Use, total : 421 430 385 375 Ending stocks, total : 34 57 60 76 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.39 1.79 1.45- 1.85 1.55- 1.85 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.3 4.5 3.9 3.9 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.0 3.3 3.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 69.6 64.8 64.8 Beginning stocks : 69 120 128 128 Production : 278 280 212 212 Imports : 21 12 10 10 Supply, total : 368 412 351 350 Feed and residual : 72 116 80 70 Food, seed & industrial : 157 145 140 140 Total domestic : 229 261 220 210 Exports : 19 23 30 30 Use, total : 248 284 250 240 Ending stocks, total : 120 128 101 110 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.83 2.48 2.35- 2.55 2.35- 2.55 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.6 4.1 4.2 4.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 65.0 64.7 63.1 63.0 Beginning stocks : 50 65 58 58 Production : 144 116 115 115 Imports : 90 88 75 75 Supply, total : 284 268 248 248 Feed and residual : 144 134 125 120 Food, seed & industrial : 73 74 74 74 Total domestic : 217 208 199 194 Exports : 2 3 3 3 Use, total : 219 210 202 197 Ending stocks, total : 65 58 46 51 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.48 1.48 1.50- 1.60 1.50- 1.60 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-430-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.02 3.35 3.36 3.38 Harvested : 3.00 3.32 3.34 3.36 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,670 6,988 6,603 6,636 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 26.8 23.7 37.7 37.7 Production : 199.9 232.4 220.7 223.2 Imports : 15.0 13.2 14.0 13.5 Supply, total : 241.7 269.2 272.4 274.4 Domestic & residual 3/ : 115.0 121.2 126.2 127.1 Exports, total 4/ : 103.1 110.4 121.0 121.0 Rough : 34.4 35.2 36.0 36.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 68.7 75.2 85.0 85.0 Use, total : 218.0 231.6 247.2 248.1 Ending stocks : 23.7 37.7 25.2 26.3 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.8 70.7 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.08 7.33 7.65- 7.95 7.65- 7.95 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 2.57 2.73 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,451 6,630 6,493 Beginning stocks : 15.7 10.3 22.7 22.7 Production : 149.0 170.4 173.2 177.5 Supply, total 7/ : 174.5 191.3 206.6 211.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 83.4 84.5 91.1 94.4 Exports 8/ : 80.7 84.1 97.0 97.0 Use, total : 164.2 168.6 188.1 191.4 Ending stocks : 10.3 22.7 18.6 19.6 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.69 0.75 0.63 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,407 8,212 7,255 Beginning stocks : 9.3 12.4 13.8 13.8 Production : 50.9 61.9 47.6 45.7 Supply, total 7/ : 66.2 76.8 64.6 62.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 31.5 36.7 35.1 32.8 Exports 8/ : 22.3 26.3 24.0 24.0 Use, total : 53.9 63.0 59.1 56.8 Ending stocks : 12.4 13.8 5.5 5.5 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0; 2005/06-1.1. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-430-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.4 75.2 72.2 72.1 Harvested : 72.5 74.0 71.3 71.4 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 33.9 42.2 42.7 43.3 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 178 112 256 256 Production : 2,454 3,124 3,043 3,086 Imports : 6 6 4 4 Supply, total : 2,638 3,242 3,303 3,346 Crushings : 1,530 1,696 1,720 1,730 Exports : 887 1,103 1,020 950 Seed : 92 88 90 90 Residual : 17 99 68 71 Use, total : 2,525 2,986 2,898 2,841 Ending stocks : 112 256 405 505 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.34 5.74 5.00- 5.70 5.10 - 5.80 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,489 1,076 1,699 1,699 Production : 17,081 19,360 19,865 20,155 Imports : 306 26 65 65 Supply, total : 18,875 20,462 21,629 21,919 Domestic : 16,864 17,439 17,950 18,100 Exports : 936 1,324 1,350 1,350 Use, total : 17,800 18,762 19,300 19,450 Ending stocks : 1,076 1,699 2,329 2,469 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 29.97 23.01 20.50- 20.50- : 23.50 22.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 220 211 172 172 Production : 36,325 40,717 40,913 40,813 Imports : 285 147 165 165 Supply, total : 36,830 41,075 41,250 41,150 Domestic : 31,449 33,563 34,300 34,300 Exports : 5,170 7,340 6,700 6,600 Use, total : 36,619 40,903 41,000 40,900 Ending stocks : 211 172 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 256.05 182.89 155.00- 165.00- : 180.00 180.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-430-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :====================== : : : December January ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,670 1,897 1,347 1,347 Production 2/ : 8,649 7,877 7,668 7,593 Beet sugar : 4,692 4,611 4,458 4,435 Cane sugar : 3,957 3,266 3,210 3,158 Florida : 2,154 1,693 1,602 1,455 Hawaii : 251 258 276 260 Louisiana : 1,377 1,157 1,152 1,263 Texas : 175 158 180 180 Imports : 1,754 2,096 2,770 2,770 TRQ 3/ : 1,230 1,404 2,140 2,140 Other program 4/ : 464 500 325 325 Other 5/ : 60 192 305 305 Supply, total : 12,073 11,870 11,785 11,710 : Exports : 288 259 175 175 Deliveries : 9,862 10,215 10,215 10,215 Food : 9,678 10,046 10,050 10,050 Other 6/ : 184 169 165 165 Miscellaneous 7/ : 26 49 0 0 Use, total : 10,176 10,523 10,390 10,390 Ending stocks : 1,897 1,347 1,395 1,320 Stocks to use ratio : 18.6 12.8 13.4 12.7 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2005/06 from processor reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2005/06, shortfall is 65,000 tons. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Includes high-tier and other. 6/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- Metric-Ton Equivalent : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-430-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.48 13.66 14.18 14.20 Harvested : 12.00 13.06 13.67 13.70 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 730 855 832 831 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 5.39 3.51 5.54 5.54 Production : 18.26 23.25 23.70 23.72 Imports : 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 23.69 26.79 29.28 29.30 Domestic use : 6.22 6.69 6.00 6.00 Exports : 13.76 14.41 16.40 16.40 Use, total : 19.98 21.10 22.40 22.40 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.20 0.15 -0.02 0.00 Ending stocks : 3.51 5.54 6.90 6.90 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 61.8 41.6 46.3 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Average price for August-November 2005. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2005/06 is 31.4 percent. WASDE-430-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 166.11 554.59 102.25 96.71 588.48 109.38 132.22 United States : 13.37 63.81 1.72 5.52 32.51 31.52 14.87 Total foreign : 152.74 490.78 100.54 91.19 555.97 77.86 117.35 Major exporters 4/ : 27.04 171.06 6.22 57.55 126.73 54.16 23.44 Argentina : 1.53 14.50 0.00 0.08 5.23 9.41 1.40 Australia : 3.14 26.13 0.07 3.23 5.96 18.03 5.36 Canada : 5.73 23.55 0.23 3.44 7.64 15.79 6.08 EU-25 5/ : 16.64 106.88 5.91 50.80 107.90 10.93 10.60 Major importers 6/ : 79.20 149.36 51.89 9.97 210.64 6.80 63.01 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.18 0.20 9.80 1.38 0.51 China : 60.38 86.49 3.75 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.85 17.99 7.95 1.30 26.22 1.00 5.56 N. Africa 8/ : 5.96 16.29 15.48 0.30 30.08 0.18 7.47 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.58 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 10.09 1.32 9.20 0.32 2.15 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.01 0.60 68.26 5.65 6.90 FSU-12 : 16.48 60.91 7.26 17.58 65.87 7.79 10.99 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.03 12.50 35.50 3.11 2.65 Kazakhstan : 3.67 11.00 0.01 2.70 6.80 4.11 3.78 Ukraine : 3.25 3.60 3.37 0.43 9.03 0.07 1.13 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 132.22 626.64 109.95 106.63 608.75 110.45 150.12 United States : 14.87 58.74 1.92 5.14 31.91 28.92 14.70 Total foreign : 117.35 567.90 108.03 101.49 576.84 81.53 135.42 Major exporters 4/ : 23.44 201.23 7.53 65.29 135.83 55.58 40.80 Argentina : 1.40 16.00 0.01 0.08 5.20 11.50 0.71 Australia : 5.36 22.60 0.08 3.70 6.40 14.74 6.89 Canada : 6.08 25.86 0.25 5.01 9.23 14.97 7.99 EU-25 5/ : 10.60 136.77 7.20 56.50 115.00 14.37 25.21 Major importers 6/ : 63.01 154.76 60.69 8.29 213.55 3.36 61.55 Brazil : 0.51 5.85 5.30 0.30 10.20 0.02 1.43 China : 43.29 91.95 6.75 4.00 102.00 1.17 38.82 Select. Mideast 7/ : 5.56 18.16 9.60 1.95 27.87 0.60 4.86 N. Africa 8/ : 7.47 16.62 18.41 0.30 32.63 0.22 9.64 Pakistan : 1.58 19.00 1.42 0.40 19.50 0.05 2.45 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.15 0.00 9.77 0.91 9.35 0.37 2.19 Selected other : India : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 72.76 2.12 4.10 FSU-12 : 10.99 86.43 4.59 20.81 72.71 15.19 14.11 Russia : 2.65 45.30 1.20 13.60 37.40 7.95 3.79 Kazakhstan : 3.78 9.95 0.02 2.70 7.40 2.70 3.64 Ukraine : 1.13 17.50 0.05 2.10 11.70 4.35 2.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-430-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 150.10 615.33 107.36 114.26 622.08 110.09 143.35 January : 150.12 616.43 107.50 113.76 621.84 110.29 144.70 United States : December : 14.70 57.11 2.18 5.44 32.33 27.22 14.43 January : 14.70 57.28 2.31 5.44 32.33 27.22 14.75 Total foreign : December : 135.41 558.22 105.19 108.82 589.75 82.88 128.92 January : 135.42 559.15 105.19 108.32 589.51 83.08 129.95 Major exporters 4/ : December : 40.79 185.42 7.54 69.48 140.50 54.50 38.74 January : 40.80 185.74 7.54 69.48 140.50 54.50 39.08 Argentina Dec : 0.71 12.10 0.01 0.08 5.20 7.00 0.62 Jan : 0.71 12.10 0.01 0.08 5.20 7.00 0.62 Australia Dec : 6.89 24.00 0.08 3.90 6.60 16.50 7.87 Jan : 6.89 24.00 0.08 3.90 6.60 16.50 7.87 Canada Dec : 7.99 26.80 0.25 5.00 9.20 16.50 9.34 Jan : 7.99 26.80 0.25 5.00 9.20 16.50 9.34 EU-25 5/ Dec : 25.20 122.52 7.20 60.50 119.50 14.50 20.92 Jan : 25.21 122.85 7.20 60.50 119.50 14.50 21.25 Major importers 6/ : December : 61.55 157.60 56.50 8.30 214.99 3.45 57.21 January : 61.55 158.60 56.50 8.30 214.99 3.45 58.21 Brazil Dec : 1.43 4.60 5.70 0.80 10.80 0.20 0.73 Jan : 1.43 4.60 5.70 0.80 10.80 0.20 0.73 China Dec : 38.82 96.00 2.00 3.50 101.00 1.00 34.82 Jan : 38.82 97.00 2.00 3.50 101.00 1.00 35.82 Sel. Mideast 7/Dec : 4.86 19.22 10.45 1.90 28.04 0.65 5.84 Jan : 4.86 19.22 10.45 1.90 28.04 0.65 5.84 N. Africa 8/ Dec : 9.64 12.92 18.60 0.30 33.33 0.21 7.63 Jan : 9.64 12.92 18.60 0.30 33.33 0.21 7.63 Pakistan Dec : 2.45 21.00 0.80 0.40 20.30 0.05 3.90 Jan : 2.45 21.00 0.80 0.40 20.30 0.05 3.90 SE Asia 9/ Dec : 2.19 0.00 9.65 0.98 9.45 0.39 2.00 Jan : 2.19 0.00 9.65 0.98 9.45 0.39 2.00 Selected other : India Dec : 4.10 72.00 1.00 0.50 73.00 0.50 3.60 Jan : 4.10 72.00 1.00 0.50 73.00 0.50 3.60 FSU-12 Dec : 14.11 92.86 3.94 23.61 76.05 19.24 15.63 Jan : 14.11 91.96 3.94 23.21 75.65 19.24 15.13 Russia Dec : 3.79 48.00 1.00 15.30 38.80 10.00 3.99 Jan : 3.79 47.60 1.00 14.90 38.40 10.00 3.99 Kazakhstan Dec : 3.64 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.40 3.50 4.26 Jan : 3.64 11.00 0.02 2.70 7.40 3.50 3.76 Ukraine Dec : 2.63 19.00 0.05 3.30 13.30 5.50 2.88 Jan : 2.63 19.00 0.05 3.30 13.30 5.50 2.88 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-430-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 168.75 912.87 100.66 611.31 942.15 103.49 139.47 United States : 30.94 275.10 2.44 155.79 225.96 53.75 28.76 Total foreign : 137.81 637.77 98.22 455.52 716.19 49.74 110.71 Major exporters 4/ : 7.87 70.15 2.44 33.99 46.98 22.94 10.53 Argentina : 1.04 18.60 0.05 5.10 7.36 11.33 1.00 Australia : 1.20 14.86 0.00 5.37 6.60 7.21 2.25 Canada : 3.14 26.33 2.08 19.31 23.81 3.64 4.09 Major importers 5/ : 37.94 195.13 79.03 205.22 274.32 5.50 32.29 EU-25 6/ : 21.50 122.97 8.01 101.94 135.47 4.39 12.63 Japan : 2.40 0.20 19.98 15.61 20.44 0.00 2.15 Mexico : 3.89 30.10 8.85 21.15 37.23 0.01 5.60 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 3.77 25.73 15.74 33.69 40.22 0.35 4.68 Saudi Arabia : 2.65 0.20 8.42 8.65 8.84 0.00 2.43 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.04 15.56 3.92 12.73 18.04 0.75 1.72 South Korea : 1.29 0.30 8.99 6.79 9.16 0.00 1.42 Selected other : China : 66.37 123.95 1.53 99.06 138.65 7.72 45.48 Other Europe : 3.09 18.84 1.35 17.15 20.74 0.36 2.17 FSU-12 : 11.98 55.37 1.46 39.23 56.57 6.09 6.16 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.95 21.53 33.25 2.47 2.93 Ukraine : 2.65 15.60 0.14 10.50 13.80 2.77 1.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 139.47 1008.22 99.32 635.31 970.55 100.90 177.14 United States : 28.76 319.42 2.20 166.18 240.28 51.30 58.80 Total foreign : 110.71 688.80 97.12 469.12 730.27 49.60 118.34 Major exporters 4/ : 10.53 74.21 2.82 36.01 49.36 24.69 13.51 Argentina : 1.00 23.90 0.01 6.60 9.06 14.65 1.21 Australia : 2.25 11.66 0.00 5.66 6.89 4.86 2.16 Canada : 4.09 26.45 2.47 19.24 23.82 2.85 6.34 Major importers 5/ : 32.29 223.59 75.34 211.36 281.26 4.76 45.21 EU-25 6/ : 12.63 150.60 3.26 106.24 139.62 4.13 22.75 Japan : 2.15 0.20 19.77 15.31 20.14 0.00 1.98 Mexico : 5.60 29.56 8.96 22.08 38.23 0.03 5.86 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.68 26.80 19.97 37.14 44.12 0.06 7.26 Saudi Arabia : 2.43 0.20 6.90 6.63 6.81 0.00 2.72 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.72 15.82 3.08 12.75 18.56 0.54 1.52 South Korea : 1.42 0.34 8.76 6.71 9.00 0.00 1.52 Selected other : China : 45.48 137.93 2.06 100.20 141.21 7.62 36.64 Other Europe : 2.17 28.87 0.52 19.36 24.69 2.02 4.86 FSU-12 : 6.16 62.86 1.12 38.02 54.50 8.07 7.57 Russia : 2.93 29.55 0.70 19.00 29.35 1.13 2.69 Ukraine : 1.82 23.00 0.08 11.35 15.20 6.76 2.94 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-430-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 172.82 953.63 97.84 626.11 971.64 100.77 154.82 January : 177.14 958.46 97.64 626.14 970.71 99.36 164.90 United States : December : 58.76 296.56 1.88 157.13 238.07 53.28 65.84 January : 58.80 298.74 1.88 159.76 240.70 52.01 66.70 Total foreign : December : 114.07 657.08 95.96 468.98 733.57 47.49 88.98 January : 118.34 659.73 95.76 466.38 730.01 47.35 98.19 Major exporters 4/ : December : 13.56 67.36 2.38 36.17 50.01 23.31 9.98 January : 13.51 66.56 1.88 35.82 49.51 22.81 9.63 Argentina Dec : 1.25 21.30 0.00 6.46 9.07 12.51 0.96 Jan : 1.21 20.50 0.00 6.31 8.77 12.01 0.92 Australia Dec : 2.16 12.06 0.00 5.14 6.39 6.17 1.65 Jan : 2.16 12.06 0.00 5.14 6.39 6.17 1.65 Canada Dec : 6.34 25.98 2.06 20.16 25.03 3.60 5.75 Jan : 6.34 25.98 1.56 19.96 24.83 3.60 5.45 Major importers 5/ : December : 45.17 199.30 75.39 208.94 279.10 5.69 35.08 January : 45.21 200.20 75.84 208.84 279.00 5.69 36.57 EU-25 6/ Dec : 22.72 130.13 3.15 101.61 134.95 4.81 16.24 Jan : 22.75 131.03 3.65 101.61 134.95 4.81 17.67 Japan Dec : 1.98 0.19 19.49 15.01 19.84 0.00 1.82 Jan : 1.98 0.19 19.49 15.01 19.84 0.00 1.82 Mexico Dec : 5.90 27.48 10.35 22.68 39.10 0.01 4.62 Jan : 5.86 27.48 10.35 22.68 39.10 0.01 4.58 N Afr/M.East 7/Dec : 7.20 24.38 18.53 37.67 44.64 0.55 4.92 Jan : 7.26 24.38 18.43 37.57 44.54 0.55 4.99 Saudi Arabia Dec : 2.72 0.20 7.40 7.43 7.61 0.00 2.71 Jan : 2.72 0.20 7.40 7.43 7.61 0.00 2.71 S.-east Asia 8/Dec : 1.53 16.52 3.21 13.48 19.34 0.33 1.59 Jan : 1.52 16.52 3.26 13.48 19.34 0.33 1.64 South Korea Dec : 1.52 0.33 8.53 6.56 8.85 0.00 1.53 Jan : 1.52 0.33 8.53 6.56 8.85 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China Dec : 36.59 137.60 2.31 101.65 143.80 6.03 26.67 Jan : 36.64 141.60 2.31 101.65 143.80 6.03 30.72 Other Europe Dec : 4.94 24.88 0.77 19.41 24.69 2.00 3.91 Jan : 4.86 24.78 0.82 19.26 24.64 1.96 3.86 FSU-12 Dec : 7.68 56.57 1.10 35.08 51.70 7.87 5.78 Jan : 7.57 55.22 1.10 34.43 50.55 7.87 5.47 Russia Dec : 2.77 29.00 0.65 18.60 29.35 1.21 1.86 Jan : 2.69 27.65 0.65 17.95 28.20 1.21 1.59 Ukraine Dec : 2.97 18.37 0.09 9.10 12.57 6.38 2.48 Jan : 2.94 18.37 0.09 9.10 12.57 6.38 2.45 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-430-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 125.08 623.04 76.51 441.83 644.38 77.34 103.74 United States : 27.60 256.28 0.36 147.20 211.64 48.26 24.34 Total foreign : 97.48 366.76 76.16 294.63 432.74 29.08 79.41 Major exporters 4/ : 2.97 24.70 0.25 6.88 13.08 11.67 3.18 Argentina : 0.53 15.00 0.04 2.80 4.40 10.94 0.22 South Africa : 2.44 9.70 0.22 4.08 8.68 0.73 2.96 Major importers 5/ : 13.44 82.96 49.64 91.38 130.99 1.20 13.87 Egypt : 0.20 5.74 3.74 8.00 9.50 0.00 0.18 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.88 5.75 36.01 46.81 0.46 3.18 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.78 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 3.24 21.80 5.74 11.20 26.40 0.01 4.37 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.04 15.42 3.89 12.60 17.90 0.73 1.72 South Korea : 1.29 0.07 8.78 6.61 8.72 0.00 1.42 Selected other : Brazil : 6.50 42.00 0.36 30.50 36.30 4.44 8.12 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.03 8.83 11.23 0.37 1.14 China : 64.97 115.83 0.00 97.00 128.40 7.55 44.85 Other Europe : 2.58 15.13 0.91 14.30 16.62 0.34 1.66 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.53 0.64 9.55 11.04 1.31 1.35 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 103.74 708.32 75.08 466.32 681.10 77.14 130.97 United States : 24.34 299.91 0.28 156.52 224.75 46.08 53.70 Total foreign : 79.41 408.41 74.81 309.80 456.35 31.06 77.27 Major exporters 4/ : 3.18 31.22 0.16 7.80 14.15 16.30 4.10 Argentina : 0.22 19.50 0.01 3.50 5.20 14.00 0.53 South Africa : 2.96 11.72 0.15 4.30 8.95 2.30 3.57 Major importers 5/ : 13.87 97.51 46.53 99.12 139.32 0.74 17.83 Egypt : 0.18 5.78 5.40 9.00 10.60 0.00 0.76 EU-25 6/ : 3.18 53.35 2.52 41.70 52.50 0.20 6.35 Japan : 1.34 0.00 16.49 12.20 16.70 0.00 1.13 Mexico : 4.37 22.63 5.92 12.60 27.90 0.03 5.00 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.72 15.62 3.07 12.60 18.40 0.52 1.49 South Korea : 1.42 0.08 8.64 6.62 8.62 0.00 1.52 Selected other : Brazil : 8.12 35.00 0.70 32.10 38.50 0.70 4.62 Canada : 1.14 8.84 2.37 8.00 10.40 0.24 1.72 China : 44.85 130.29 0.00 98.50 131.50 7.59 36.06 Other Europe : 1.66 23.44 0.15 15.86 19.65 1.43 4.17 FSU-12 : 1.35 15.30 0.49 10.94 12.59 2.40 2.15 Russia : 0.16 3.45 0.20 3.00 3.55 0.04 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-430-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 126.63 677.65 74.23 464.53 685.54 74.95 118.73 January : 130.97 683.51 74.03 465.60 686.21 73.54 128.26 United States : December : 53.65 280.23 0.25 149.23 224.42 48.26 61.45 January : 53.70 282.26 0.25 152.41 227.59 46.99 61.62 Total foreign : December : 72.98 397.42 73.98 315.30 461.12 26.69 57.28 January : 77.27 401.25 73.78 313.20 458.61 26.55 66.64 Major exporters 4/ : December : 4.10 24.80 0.20 7.90 14.30 13.00 1.80 January : 4.10 24.30 0.20 7.90 14.30 12.50 1.80 Argentina Dec : 0.53 17.30 0.00 3.70 5.40 12.00 0.43 Jan : 0.53 16.80 0.00 3.70 5.40 11.50 0.43 South Africa Dec : 3.57 7.50 0.20 4.20 8.90 1.00 1.37 Jan : 3.57 7.50 0.20 4.20 8.90 1.00 1.37 Major importers 5/ : December : 17.74 89.82 47.20 98.80 139.12 0.91 14.74 January : 17.83 90.35 47.75 98.80 139.12 0.91 15.91 Egypt Dec : 0.66 5.95 5.30 9.60 11.30 0.00 0.61 Jan : 0.76 5.95 5.30 9.60 11.30 0.00 0.71 EU-25 6/ Dec : 6.33 46.95 2.50 40.00 50.60 0.60 4.57 Jan : 6.35 47.47 3.00 40.00 50.60 0.60 5.62 Japan Dec : 1.13 0.00 16.50 12.10 16.60 0.00 1.03 Jan : 1.13 0.00 16.50 12.10 16.60 0.00 1.03 Mexico Dec : 5.01 20.50 6.70 12.90 28.40 0.01 3.81 Jan : 5.00 20.50 6.70 12.90 28.40 0.01 3.79 S.-east Asia 7/Dec : 1.50 16.32 3.20 13.30 19.15 0.30 1.56 Jan : 1.49 16.32 3.25 13.30 19.15 0.30 1.61 South Korea Dec : 1.52 0.06 8.40 6.50 8.45 0.00 1.53 Jan : 1.52 0.06 8.40 6.50 8.45 0.00 1.53 Selected other : Brazil Dec : 0.42 42.50 1.00 35.00 40.80 1.30 1.82 Jan : 4.62 42.50 0.60 33.50 40.00 1.70 6.02 Canada Dec : 1.72 9.47 2.00 9.00 11.50 0.15 1.54 Jan : 1.72 9.47 1.50 8.50 11.00 0.15 1.54 China Dec : 36.06 130.00 0.20 100.00 134.00 6.00 26.26 Jan : 36.06 134.00 0.20 100.00 134.00 6.00 30.26 Other Europe Dec : 4.25 20.32 0.41 16.31 20.10 1.60 3.28 Jan : 4.17 20.12 0.46 16.16 19.95 1.56 3.24 FSU-12 Dec : 2.23 13.15 0.41 9.89 11.53 2.33 1.93 Jan : 2.15 13.15 0.41 9.89 11.53 2.33 1.86 Russia Dec : 0.26 3.20 0.20 2.90 3.45 0.00 0.21 Jan : 0.22 3.20 0.20 2.90 3.45 0.00 0.17 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-430-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 3/ : 110.32 391.38 24.86 415.68 27.41 86.02 United States : 0.83 6.42 0.48 3.66 3.31 0.76 Total foreign : 109.49 384.96 24.38 412.02 24.10 85.26 Major exporters 4/ : 18.41 133.22 0.30 115.55 19.48 16.90 India : 11.00 88.28 0.00 85.38 3.10 10.80 Pakistan : 0.05 4.85 0.00 2.70 1.95 0.24 Thailand : 3.30 18.01 0.00 9.47 10.14 1.71 Vietnam : 4.07 22.08 0.30 18.00 4.30 4.15 Major importers 5/ : 12.34 59.35 9.37 68.14 0.37 12.56 Brazil : 0.59 8.71 0.81 8.69 0.08 1.34 EU-25 6/ : 0.96 1.73 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.97 Indonesia : 4.34 35.02 0.65 36.00 0.00 4.02 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.45 4.00 0.00 1.00 Philippines : 3.81 9.20 1.29 10.25 0.00 4.05 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.21 2.99 5.15 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.13 1.63 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.07 0.35 0.45 0.00 0.11 China : 67.22 112.46 1.12 135.00 0.88 44.93 Egypt : 0.87 3.90 0.00 3.23 0.83 0.72 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.54 0.73 0.00 0.18 South Korea : 1.03 4.45 0.19 4.64 0.21 0.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 3/ : 86.02 402.15 26.13 415.11 27.60 73.07 United States : 0.76 7.46 0.42 3.89 3.54 1.21 Total foreign : 85.26 394.70 25.71 411.22 24.06 71.86 Major exporters 4/ : 16.90 130.03 0.30 113.74 19.30 14.18 India : 10.80 85.31 0.00 83.11 4.50 8.50 Pakistan : 0.24 5.02 0.00 2.66 2.45 0.16 Thailand : 1.71 17.07 0.00 9.48 7.25 2.05 Vietnam : 4.15 22.63 0.30 18.50 5.10 3.48 Major importers 5/ : 12.56 59.60 9.26 68.67 0.54 12.21 Brazil : 1.34 8.98 0.55 9.00 0.30 1.57 EU-25 6/ : 0.97 1.86 1.00 2.53 0.18 1.13 Indonesia : 4.02 34.25 0.50 35.85 0.00 2.92 Nigeria : 1.00 2.30 1.37 4.25 0.00 0.42 Philippines : 4.05 9.45 1.50 10.40 0.00 4.59 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.27 3.25 5.07 0.06 1.38 Selected other : Burma : 1.63 9.57 0.00 10.30 0.18 0.72 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.11 0.07 0.40 0.47 0.00 0.11 China : 44.93 125.36 0.60 135.10 0.70 35.09 Egypt : 0.72 4.16 0.00 3.25 1.10 0.53 Japan : 1.70 7.94 0.78 8.30 0.20 1.92 Mexico : 0.18 0.20 0.55 0.80 0.00 0.13 South Korea : 0.82 5.00 0.19 4.77 0.27 0.97 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-430-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 72.88 406.83 24.91 413.88 25.41 65.83 January : 73.07 406.88 25.59 413.84 26.19 66.10 United States : December : 1.21 7.01 0.45 4.02 3.84 0.80 January : 1.21 7.09 0.43 4.05 3.84 0.84 Total foreign : December : 71.67 399.82 24.47 409.86 21.57 65.02 January : 71.86 399.79 25.16 409.79 22.35 65.27 Major exporters 4/ : December : 14.24 130.80 0.10 112.29 17.25 15.60 January : 14.18 130.80 0.10 112.16 17.83 15.10 India Dec : 8.50 85.00 0.00 81.00 3.50 9.00 Jan : 8.50 85.00 0.00 81.00 3.50 9.00 Pakistan Dec : 0.21 5.40 0.00 2.80 2.25 0.56 Jan : 0.16 5.40 0.00 2.67 2.83 0.07 Thailand Dec : 2.05 17.90 0.00 9.49 7.00 3.46 Jan : 2.05 17.90 0.00 9.49 7.00 3.46 Vietnam Dec : 3.48 22.50 0.10 19.00 4.50 2.58 Jan : 3.48 22.50 0.10 19.00 4.50 2.58 Major importers 5/ : December : 12.20 59.38 9.89 69.27 0.36 11.83 January : 12.21 59.43 10.54 69.27 0.36 12.55 Brazil Dec : 1.57 7.80 0.70 9.21 0.13 0.73 Jan : 1.57 7.80 0.70 9.21 0.13 0.73 EU-25 6/ Dec : 1.13 1.74 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.12 Jan : 1.13 1.80 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.18 Indonesia Dec : 2.92 34.90 0.80 35.60 0.00 3.02 Jan : 2.92 34.90 0.80 35.60 0.00 3.02 Nigeria Dec : 0.42 2.70 1.70 4.35 0.00 0.47 Jan : 0.42 2.70 1.70 4.35 0.00 0.47 Philippines Dec : 4.59 9.50 1.25 10.60 0.00 4.74 Jan : 4.59 9.50 1.90 10.60 0.00 5.39 Sel. Mideast 7/Dec : 1.38 2.27 3.40 5.37 0.06 1.62 Jan : 1.38 2.27 3.40 5.37 0.06 1.62 Selected other : Burma Dec : 0.75 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.15 0.64 Jan : 0.72 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.15 0.61 C. Am & Car. 8/Dec : 0.11 0.07 0.40 0.47 0.00 0.10 Jan : 0.11 0.07 0.40 0.47 0.00 0.10 China Dec : 34.99 127.40 0.60 135.20 0.60 27.19 Jan : 35.09 127.40 0.60 135.20 0.70 27.19 Egypt Dec : 0.63 4.19 0.00 3.30 1.00 0.52 Jan : 0.53 4.20 0.00 3.30 1.00 0.43 Japan Dec : 1.82 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.07 Jan : 1.92 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.17 Mexico Dec : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.83 0.00 0.10 Jan : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.83 0.00 0.10 South Korea Dec : 1.00 4.75 0.40 4.66 0.13 1.37 Jan : 0.97 4.77 0.40 4.66 0.13 1.35 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-430-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World : 42.34 95.26 33.90 98.08 33.25 -0.54 40.72 United States : 5.39 18.26 0.05 6.22 13.76 0.20 3.51 Total foreign : 36.95 77.01 33.86 91.86 19.49 -0.74 37.21 Major exporters 4/ : 11.55 30.69 3.18 18.11 14.93 -0.16 12.54 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.78 6.74 0.01 1.67 5.14 0.00 1.71 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.56 4.39 3/ 0.20 4.44 0.00 1.30 S. Hemis. 7/ : 4.85 9.36 0.95 5.02 3.90 -0.20 6.44 Australia : 1.30 1.70 3/ 0.08 2.16 -0.12 0.89 Brazil : 2.88 6.02 0.55 3.95 0.96 -0.10 4.63 Major importers : 23.20 42.87 26.18 67.23 3.14 -0.59 22.47 India : 3.59 14.00 0.80 13.50 0.70 0.00 4.19 Mexico : 1.07 0.36 1.86 2.00 0.11 0.03 1.14 China : 13.10 22.30 8.83 32.00 0.17 -0.75 12.81 EU-25 8/ : 1.53 1.96 3.16 3.90 1.73 0.06 0.96 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.37 4.10 2.37 6.20 0.36 0.00 1.28 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.33 0.15 7.68 8.13 0.06 0.08 1.89 Indonesia : 0.40 0.03 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.56 0.06 1.68 1.85 0.00 0.03 0.42 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World : 40.72 120.38 33.13 108.65 34.70 -0.73 51.62 United States : 3.51 23.25 0.03 6.69 14.41 0.15 5.54 Total foreign : 37.21 97.13 33.10 101.95 20.29 -0.88 46.08 Major exporters 4/ : 12.54 37.97 2.55 19.45 16.23 -0.16 17.54 Pakistan : 2.03 11.30 1.70 10.75 0.38 0.03 3.88 Central Asia 5/ : 1.71 8.01 3/ 1.51 5.90 0.00 2.32 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.30 4.89 3/ 0.20 4.08 0.00 1.90 S. Hemis. 7/ : 6.44 10.32 0.45 5.26 4.20 -0.20 7.94 Australia : 0.89 3.00 3/ 0.07 2.00 -0.12 1.95 Brazil : 4.63 5.90 0.21 4.20 1.56 -0.10 5.08 Major importers : 22.47 55.21 26.09 76.01 2.71 -0.74 25.79 India : 4.19 19.00 0.80 14.80 0.70 0.00 8.49 Mexico : 1.14 0.63 1.81 2.10 0.14 0.03 1.32 China : 12.81 29.00 6.39 38.50 0.03 -0.90 10.56 EU-25 8/ : 0.96 2.30 3.06 3.47 1.64 0.06 1.16 Russia : 0.20 3/ 1.45 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.28 4.15 3.41 7.00 0.15 0.00 1.69 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.89 0.14 9.18 8.72 0.06 0.08 2.35 Indonesia : 0.37 0.03 2.40 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.48 Thailand : 0.42 0.06 2.28 2.15 0.00 0.03 0.58 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-430-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World : December : 51.51 112.29 41.76 114.85 41.30 -1.50 50.92 January : 51.62 112.36 42.00 115.24 41.44 -1.48 50.77 United States : December : 5.54 23.70 0.04 6.00 16.40 -0.02 6.90 January : 5.54 23.72 0.04 6.00 16.40 0.00 6.90 Total foreign : December : 45.97 88.58 41.72 108.85 24.90 -1.48 44.02 January : 46.08 88.64 41.96 109.24 25.04 -1.48 43.87 Major exporters 4/ : December : 17.57 34.94 2.75 20.33 19.07 -0.16 16.01 January : 17.54 35.00 2.75 20.33 19.22 -0.16 15.89 Pakistan Dec : 3.88 9.75 1.70 11.75 0.35 0.03 3.21 Jan : 3.88 9.75 1.70 11.75 0.35 0.03 3.21 Central Asia 5/Dec : 2.35 8.39 3/ 1.56 6.56 0.00 2.62 Jan : 2.32 8.36 3/ 1.56 6.56 0.00 2.57 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Dec : 1.90 4.76 3/ 0.19 4.54 0.00 1.93 Jan : 1.90 4.96 3/ 0.19 4.72 0.00 1.96 S. Hemis 7/ Dec : 7.94 8.85 0.47 5.05 5.65 -0.20 6.76 Jan : 7.94 8.81 0.47 5.05 5.68 -0.20 6.69 Australia Dec : 1.95 2.60 3/ 0.06 2.95 -0.12 1.67 Jan : 1.95 2.60 3/ 0.06 2.95 -0.12 1.67 Brazil Dec : 5.08 4.75 0.23 4.00 2.00 -0.10 4.16 Jan : 5.08 4.75 0.23 4.00 2.00 -0.10 4.16 Major importers Dec : 25.64 49.90 34.80 82.03 4.15 -1.33 25.49 Jan : 25.79 49.90 34.96 82.39 4.15 -1.33 25.44 India Dec : 8.29 18.60 0.80 16.75 1.80 0.00 9.14 Jan : 8.49 18.60 0.80 17.00 1.80 0.00 9.09 Mexico Dec : 1.37 0.70 1.25 1.90 0.20 0.03 1.19 Jan : 1.32 0.70 1.40 2.00 0.20 0.03 1.19 China Dec : 10.56 24.50 16.50 43.00 0.03 -1.50 10.04 Jan : 10.56 24.50 16.50 43.00 0.03 -1.50 10.04 EU-25 8/ Dec : 1.16 2.40 2.66 3.08 1.97 0.06 1.11 Jan : 1.16 2.40 2.67 3.09 1.97 0.06 1.11 Russia Dec : 0.22 3/ 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.22 Jan : 0.22 3/ 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Dec : 1.69 3.55 3.45 7.05 0.10 0.00 1.54 Jan : 1.69 3.55 3.45 7.05 0.10 0.00 1.54 Sel. Asia 9/ Dec : 2.35 0.15 8.65 8.75 0.06 0.09 2.26 Jan : 2.35 0.15 8.65 8.75 0.06 0.09 2.26 Indonesia Dec : 0.48 0.03 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Jan : 0.48 0.03 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand Dec : 0.58 0.05 2.15 2.18 0.00 0.03 0.58 Jan : 0.58 0.05 2.15 2.18 0.00 0.03 0.58 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and estimated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-430-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 40.50 186.76 54.25 163.63 189.96 55.86 35.68 United States : 4.85 66.78 0.15 41.63 44.60 24.13 3.06 Total foreign : 35.65 119.98 54.10 122.00 145.36 31.73 32.62 Major exporters 3/ : 28.59 87.91 0.88 55.35 59.92 29.30 28.16 Argentina : 12.47 33.00 0.54 25.04 26.62 6.71 12.68 Brazil : 16.03 51.00 0.33 29.32 32.15 19.82 15.39 Major importers 4/ : 6.05 17.43 43.57 49.00 63.24 0.34 3.46 China : 4.47 15.39 16.93 25.44 34.38 0.32 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.63 14.64 14.13 15.46 0.01 0.74 Japan : 0.31 0.23 4.69 3.54 4.93 0.00 0.30 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 3.80 3.89 3.93 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 35.68 215.33 64.80 176.04 205.76 65.16 44.90 United States : 3.06 85.01 0.15 46.16 51.25 30.01 6.96 Total foreign : 32.62 130.32 64.65 129.88 154.51 35.15 37.94 Major exporters 3/ : 28.16 95.80 1.24 57.28 62.06 32.65 30.48 Argentina : 12.68 39.00 0.69 27.31 28.93 9.51 13.92 Brazil : 15.39 53.00 0.53 28.97 31.91 20.54 16.48 Major importers 4/ : 3.46 19.54 52.54 53.98 69.05 0.42 6.07 China : 2.10 17.40 25.80 30.36 40.21 0.39 4.70 EU-25 : 0.74 0.79 15.40 14.73 16.13 0.01 0.79 Japan : 0.30 0.17 4.30 3.15 4.50 0.00 0.26 Mexico : 0.04 0.13 3.50 3.59 3.63 0.00 0.04 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 42.09 221.71 67.74 185.35 215.43 68.01 48.11 January : 44.90 223.02 66.81 184.77 214.75 66.82 53.15 United States : December : 6.95 82.82 0.11 46.81 51.11 27.76 11.02 January : 6.96 84.00 0.11 47.08 51.47 25.86 13.74 Total foreign : December : 35.14 138.89 67.64 138.53 164.32 40.25 37.09 January : 37.94 139.02 66.70 137.69 163.28 40.97 39.41 Major exporters 3/ : December : 27.73 103.80 1.06 59.45 64.56 37.70 30.32 January : 30.48 103.80 1.09 59.54 64.33 38.42 32.64 Argentina Dec : 13.64 40.50 0.55 28.60 30.60 9.70 14.39 Jan : 13.92 40.50 0.65 28.45 30.20 10.00 14.87 Brazil Dec : 14.00 58.50 0.49 29.25 32.15 25.00 15.84 Jan : 16.48 58.50 0.43 29.49 32.31 25.42 17.68 Major importers 4/ : December : 6.07 19.23 55.28 59.04 74.65 0.39 5.54 January : 6.07 19.28 54.23 58.04 73.65 0.39 5.54 China Dec : 4.70 17.00 27.50 34.55 44.75 0.35 4.10 Jan : 4.70 17.00 27.50 34.55 44.75 0.35 4.10 EU-25 Dec : 0.79 0.79 15.95 15.30 16.71 0.01 0.80 Jan : 0.79 0.84 15.00 14.40 15.81 0.01 0.80 Japan Dec : 0.26 0.23 4.40 3.20 4.59 0.00 0.30 Jan : 0.26 0.23 4.30 3.10 4.49 0.00 0.30 Mexico Dec : 0.04 0.13 3.70 3.79 3.83 0.00 0.04 Jan : 0.04 0.13 3.70 3.79 3.83 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-430-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 5.31 128.32 44.95 128.47 45.41 4.70 United States : 0.20 32.95 0.26 28.53 4.69 0.19 Total foreign : 5.11 95.37 44.69 99.94 40.72 4.51 Major exporters 3/ : 2.04 46.54 0.23 9.44 37.02 2.35 Argentina : 0.35 19.76 0.00 0.62 18.95 0.54 Brazil : 1.65 22.36 0.23 7.70 14.76 1.78 India : 0.05 4.42 0.00 1.12 3.31 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 33.04 26.92 58.93 1.10 1.13 EU-25 : 0.87 11.10 21.91 32.64 0.39 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.02 19.54 0.67 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.70 138.34 45.73 137.53 46.15 5.09 United States : 0.19 36.94 0.13 30.45 6.66 0.16 Total foreign : 4.51 101.41 45.59 107.08 39.49 4.94 Major exporters 3/ : 2.35 47.52 0.19 11.06 36.42 2.58 Argentina : 0.54 21.34 0.00 0.85 19.88 1.15 Brazil : 1.78 22.42 0.19 8.81 14.24 1.33 India : 0.04 3.77 0.00 1.40 2.30 0.10 Major importers 4/ : 1.13 37.49 27.62 64.03 1.07 1.14 EU-25 : 0.85 11.58 22.00 33.21 0.36 0.86 China : 0.00 24.03 0.07 23.43 0.66 0.00 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 3.80 145.98 46.85 145.28 47.31 4.04 January : 5.09 145.18 47.76 144.84 48.02 5.17 United States : December : 0.16 37.12 0.15 31.12 6.08 0.23 January : 0.16 37.03 0.15 31.12 5.99 0.23 Total foreign : December : 3.64 108.86 46.70 114.16 41.24 3.81 January : 4.94 108.16 47.61 113.72 42.04 4.94 Major exporters 3/ : December : 1.32 49.45 0.28 12.22 37.37 1.45 January : 2.58 49.45 0.28 11.51 38.24 2.56 Argentina Dec : 0.90 22.52 0.00 0.95 21.52 0.95 Jan : 1.15 22.33 0.00 0.90 21.65 0.93 Brazil Dec : 0.37 22.86 0.28 9.10 13.95 0.45 Jan : 1.33 23.17 0.28 9.04 14.19 1.55 India Dec : 0.05 4.07 0.00 2.17 1.90 0.05 Jan : 0.10 3.95 0.00 1.57 2.40 0.09 Major importers 4/ : December : 1.14 41.56 28.03 68.40 1.19 1.15 January : 1.14 40.83 28.66 68.29 1.19 1.15 EU-25 Dec : 0.86 12.04 22.75 34.39 0.39 0.86 Jan : 0.86 11.33 22.75 33.68 0.39 0.86 China Dec : 0.00 27.50 0.08 26.83 0.75 0.00 Jan : 0.00 27.50 0.20 26.95 0.75 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-430-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 2.29 29.83 8.45 29.75 8.99 1.84 United States : 0.68 7.75 0.14 7.65 0.43 0.49 Total foreign : 1.62 22.08 8.31 22.10 8.56 1.35 Major exporters 3/ : 0.70 12.64 0.10 5.12 7.70 0.62 Argentina : 0.05 4.51 0.00 0.11 4.41 0.04 Brazil : 0.42 5.59 0.03 2.95 2.72 0.37 EU-25 : 0.23 2.54 0.07 2.06 0.57 0.21 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.57 3.54 9.02 0.03 0.44 China : 0.25 4.54 2.73 7.17 0.02 0.33 India : 0.13 1.02 0.76 1.78 0.02 0.11 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.84 32.46 9.16 32.01 9.35 2.09 United States : 0.49 8.78 0.01 7.91 0.60 0.77 Total foreign : 1.35 23.68 9.15 24.10 8.75 1.32 Major exporters 3/ : 0.62 13.33 0.16 5.47 7.91 0.73 Argentina : 0.04 5.13 0.00 0.13 4.97 0.07 Brazil : 0.37 5.56 0.00 3.08 2.41 0.44 EU-25 : 0.21 2.64 0.16 2.26 0.52 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.44 6.30 3.81 10.13 0.05 0.37 China : 0.33 5.42 1.73 7.21 0.04 0.22 India : 0.11 0.87 2.03 2.85 0.01 0.15 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 1.81 34.22 9.95 34.02 9.90 2.05 January : 2.09 34.15 9.76 33.79 9.81 2.40 United States : December : 0.77 9.01 0.03 8.14 0.61 1.06 January : 0.77 9.14 0.03 8.21 0.61 1.12 Total foreign : December : 1.04 25.21 9.92 25.88 9.29 1.00 January : 1.32 25.00 9.73 25.58 9.19 1.28 Major exporters 3/ : December : 0.39 13.71 0.18 5.64 8.33 0.33 January : 0.73 13.53 0.26 5.61 8.23 0.68 Argentina Dec : 0.07 5.35 0.00 0.14 5.24 0.04 Jan : 0.07 5.29 0.00 0.13 5.19 0.04 Brazil Dec : 0.10 5.62 0.03 3.11 2.56 0.08 Jan : 0.44 5.65 0.01 3.10 2.58 0.43 EU-25 Dec : 0.23 2.75 0.15 2.39 0.53 0.21 Jan : 0.22 2.58 0.25 2.38 0.47 0.21 Major importers 4/ : December : 0.42 7.17 4.53 11.61 0.07 0.45 January : 0.37 7.14 4.28 11.35 0.06 0.38 China Dec : 0.22 6.21 2.40 8.55 0.05 0.23 Jan : 0.22 6.21 2.30 8.45 0.05 0.23 India Dec : 0.20 0.94 2.05 2.96 0.02 0.21 Jan : 0.15 0.91 1.90 2.80 0.01 0.15 Pakistan Dec : 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.01 Jan : 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-430-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2004 : Annual : 24548 20509 45419 34063 5454 40022 85441 7443 170.8 : 2005 : I : 5727 5136 10951 8571 1320 10013 20964 1855 43.2 II : 6192 5022 11299 8941 1393 10471 21770 1857 45.7 III : 6566 4999 11649 8931 1375 10437 22086 1878 44.0 IV : 6210 5525 11821 8850 1425 10400 22221 1920 43.7 Annual : Dec Proj : 24665 20707 45716 35192 5498 41206 86922 7500 176.7 Jan Est : 24695 20682 45720 35292 5513 41321 87041 7510 176.6 : 2006 : I*: 6050 5210 11353 8825 1335 10285 21638 1870 45.0 II*: 6725 5100 11920 9125 1405 10660 22580 1905 46.7 III*: 6825 5250 12166 9300 1410 10845 23011 1920 44.8 IV*: 6325 5625 12047 9075 1425 10635 22682 1950 44.8 Annual : Dec Proj : 25850 21125 47351 36325 5555 42405 89756 7645 181.3 Jan Proj : 25925 21185 47486 36325 5575 42425 89911 7645 181.3 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2004 : Annual : 84.75 52.51 74.1 69.7 82.2 16.05 : 2005 : I : 89.09 51.92 71.9 65.9 64.5 15.67 II : 87.96 52.09 72.6 67.7 55.9 14.83 III : 81.79 50.51 72.1 76.5 66.6 14.97 IV : 90.27 45.67 66.7 83.6 75.0 15.10 Annual : Dec Proj : 87.09 50.01 71.0 72.7 64.6 15.10-15.20 Jan Est : 87.28 50.05 70.8 73.4 65.5 15.14 : 2006 : I*: 85-89 46-48 66-68 66-68 69-71 14.30-14.70 II*: 82-88 46-50 66-70 68-72 65-69 13.00-13.70 III*: 78-84 44-48 67-73 72-78 67-73 12.70-13.70 IV*: 79-85 39-43 66-72 75-81 72-78 13.55-14.55 Annual : Dec Proj : 79-85 44-47 68-73 69-74 63-68 13.35-14.15 Jan Proj : 81-87 44-47 66-71 70-75 68-73 13.40-14.20 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-430-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2004 : 518 24650 3679 28847 460 637 27750 66.1 2005 Est. Dec : 637 24767 3587 28991 644 610 27737 65.4 Jan : 637 24797 3567 29001 644 600 27757 65.4 2006 Proj. Dec : 610 25952 3560 30122 680 575 28867 67.4 Jan : 600 26027 3540 30167 975 575 28617 66.8 : PORK : 2004 : 532 20529 1099 22160 2181 543 19437 51.3 2005 Est. Dec : 543 20727 1002 22272 2683 535 19054 49.8 Jan : 543 20702 1002 22247 2658 535 19054 49.8 2006 Proj. Dec : 535 21145 960 22640 2785 545 19310 50.0 Jan : 535 21205 1000 22740 2755 545 19440 50.3 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2004 : 1059 45555 4959 51573 2650 1187 47735 119.0 2005 Est. Dec : 1187 45851 4768 51806 3336 1159 47311 116.7 Jan : 1187 45855 4748 51790 3311 1149 47330 116.8 2006 Proj. Dec : 1159 47486 4695 53340 3473 1136 48731 119.0 Jan : 1149 47621 4715 53485 3738 1136 48611 118.8 : BROILERS : 2004 : 608 33699 27 34334 4784 713 28837 84.3 2005 Est. Dec : 713 34816 34 35563 5336 725 29502 85.4 Jan : 713 34915 34 35662 5211 850 29601 85.6 2006 Proj. Dec : 725 35936 36 36697 5595 695 30407 87.2 Jan : 850 35936 36 36822 5405 750 30667 87.9 : TURKEYS : 2004 : 354 5383 5 5741 442 288 5010 17.0 2005 Est. Dec : 288 5426 8 5723 580 250 4893 16.5 Jan : 288 5441 8 5738 580 200 4958 16.7 2006 Proj. Dec : 250 5482 4 5736 600 300 4836 16.1 Jan : 200 5502 4 5706 600 250 4856 16.2 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2004 : 966 39585 33 40584 5440 1005 34139 102.3 2005 Est. Dec : 1005 40757 43 41804 6043 978 34784 103.2 Jan : 1005 40871 43 41918 5918 1053 34948 103.7 2006 Proj. Dec : 978 41943 44 42965 6335 999 35631 104.6 Jan : 1053 41963 44 43060 6145 1004 35911 105.4 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2004 : 2025 85140 4992 92157 8090 2192 81875 221.3 2005 Est. Dec : 2192 86608 4811 93611 9379 2137 82095 219.9 Jan : 2192 86726 4791 93709 9229 2202 82278 220.4 2006 Proj. Dec : 2137 89429 4739 96305 9808 2135 84362 223.6 Jan : 2202 89584 4759 96545 9883 2140 84522 224.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-430-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Estimated : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.3 13.7 14.5 14.5 14.0 14.0 Production : 7297.0 7443.0 7499.7 7509.7 7645.0 7645.0 Imports : 13.3 12.7 8.9 8.7 10.0 8.0 Total supply : 7320.6 7469.4 7523.1 7532.9 7669.0 7667.0 : Use : Exports : 146.2 167.5 200.1 200.1 200.0 200.0 Hatching use : 959.4 987.2 998.4 998.4 1015.0 1015.0 Ending stocks : 13.7 14.5 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6201.3 6300.2 6310.6 6320.4 6440.0 6438.0 Per capita (number) : 255.7 257.2 255.1 255.5 257.9 257.8 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Estimated : 2006 Projected Commodity : : :-----------------:----------------- : 2003 : 2004 : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== : Billion pounds Milk : Production : 170.4 170.8 176.7 176.6 181.3 181.3 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 : Fat Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 9.9 8.3 7.2 7.2 7.4 7.6 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 175.6 175.5 180.2 180.2 Imports : 5.0 5.3 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8 Total cml. supply : 184.2 183.3 187.5 187.3 192.6 192.6 : Fat Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.3 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.5 CCC net removals 1/ : 1.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Commercial use 2/ : 174.7 176.2 180.2 179.8 185.0 185.1 : Skim-solids Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.5 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 175.6 175.5 180.2 180.2 Imports : 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.7 Total cml. supply : 182.8 183.0 188.6 188.3 193.2 193.5 : Skim-solids Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.5 8.3 8.3 CCC net removals 1/ : 8.1 1.3 -1.0 -1.0 0.7 0.6 Commercial use 2/ : 166.2 173.5 181.5 180.8 184.2 184.5 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 1/: Butter : 29 -7 0 0 0 0 Cheese : 41 6 -2 -2 0 0 Nonfat dry milk : 664 105 -80 -80 60 55 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 2/ Includes commercial exports. WASDE-430-32 U.S. Dairy Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Estimated : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== : Dollars per pound : Product Prices 1/ : Cheese : 1.3031 1.6431 1.480- 1.4875 1.295- 1.295- : 1.490 1.375 1.375 : Butter : 1.1194 1.8239 1.525- 1.5405 1.300- 1.295- : 1.555 1.410 1.405 : Nonfat dry milk : 0.8090 0.8405 0.930- 0.9409 0.890- 0.890- : 0.950 0.950 0.950 : Dry whey : 0.1667 0.2319 0.275- 0.2782 0.255- 0.260- : 0.285 0.285 0.290 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices 2/ : Class III : 11.42 15.39 14.00- 14.05 12.05- 12.05- : 14.10 12.85 12.85 : Class IV : 10.00 13.20 12.75- 12.87 11.45- 11.45- : 12.95 12.35 12.35 : All milk 3/ : 12.52 16.05 15.10- 15.14 13.35- 13.40- : 15.20 14.15 14.20 : =============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found at http://www.ams.usda.gov/dyfmos/mib/fedordprc_dscrp.htm. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-430-33 Note: Tables on pages 33-35 present a 24-year record of the differences between the January projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the January projection and the final estimate have averaged 3.2 million tons (0.6%) ranging from -8.3 to 6.4 million tons. The January projection has been below the estimate 16 times and above 8 times. Reliability of January Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.6 3.2 -8.3 6.4 16 8 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.1 11 6 Foreign : 0.7 3.2 -8.3 6.4 16 8 Exports : World : 3.3 3.7 -14.0 5.2 16 8 U.S. : 4.2 1.4 -3.9 2.7 12 12 Foreign : 4.4 3.6 -12.6 5.6 18 6 Domestic use : World : 0.9 5.0 -14.3 11.0 14 10 U.S. : 3.9 1.2 -2.6 3.0 9 15 Foreign : 1.0 4.8 -14.8 8.6 15 9 Ending stocks : World : 4.1 5.1 -11.5 8.1 16 8 U.S. : 8.2 1.8 -4.6 3.3 14 10 Foreign : 4.3 4.3 -10.3 9.8 16 8 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.0 8.1 -20.7 8.2 15 9 U.S. : 0.2 0.4 -4.6 1.3 12 6 Foreign : 1.3 7.9 -20.7 8.2 15 9 Exports : World : 4.0 4.2 -10.8 13.3 16 8 U.S. : 9.0 4.6 -11.1 12.4 11 13 Foreign : 8.3 4.4 -14.0 8.0 14 10 Domestic use : World : 1.0 8.1 -16.0 29.0 12 12 U.S. : 2.4 4.3 -18.8 11.5 12 12 Foreign : 1.1 6.8 -12.5 22.8 16 8 Ending stocks : World : 7.9 11.2 -31.8 17.6 18 6 U.S. : 9.5 5.5 -24.3 20.8 14 9 Foreign : 10.5 8.3 -29.6 10.8 19 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.4 4.7 -13.9 1.9 19 4 U.S. : 1.2 0.1 -0.3 0.2 9 4 Foreign : 1.4 4.6 -13.9 2.0 20 4 Exports : World : 7.4 1.4 -5.4 1.0 19 5 U.S. : 6.3 0.2 -0.6 0.2 14 8 Foreign : 8.5 1.4 -5.2 1.0 17 7 Domestic use : World : 1.1 3.7 -12.3 1.9 19 5 U.S. : 5.8 0.2 -0.4 0.5 11 13 Foreign : 1.1 3.7 -12.4 2.2 20 4 Ending stocks : World : 7.0 3.1 -13.0 3.9 19 5 U.S. : 16.4 0.2 -0.3 0.6 11 12 Foreign : 7.3 3.1 -13.3 3.8 19 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-430-34 Reliability of January Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.3 3.4 -6.2 17.4 15 9 U.S. : 1.1 0.6 -1.6 1.8 10 11 Foreign : 4.3 3.4 -6.5 17.0 16 8 Exports : World : 5.4 2.2 -7.9 12.2 15 9 U.S. : 6.3 1.4 -3.1 4.3 14 10 Foreign : 15.9 2.1 -7.2 11.8 12 12 Domestic use : World : 2.4 3.1 -5.7 11.1 15 9 U.S. : 2.7 1.1 -3.6 2.0 16 8 Foreign : 3.0 2.8 -5.3 12.7 15 9 Ending stocks : World : 12.3 3.0 -6.9 18.7 14 10 U.S. : 23.2 1.7 -2.6 4.9 5 19 Foreign : 16.6 2.9 -7.5 13.8 16 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.0 1.8 -5.4 3.6 16 7 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.3 9 14 Foreign : 2.5 1.8 -5.7 3.5 17 6 Exports : World : 3.7 0.9 -2.7 1.0 13 11 U.S. : 7.9 0.5 -1.7 0.8 15 9 Foreign : 4.4 0.8 -3.4 1.0 13 11 Mill use : World : 2.0 1.8 -6.3 1.8 13 11 U.S. : 3.9 0.3 -0.9 0.9 16 7 Foreign : 2.1 1.6 -5.8 2.0 14 10 Ending stocks : World : 8.4 2.9 -6.1 8.1 14 10 U.S. : 16.9 0.8 -1.9 2.2 6 18 Foreign : 9.0 2.8 -6.3 7.6 15 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2004/05 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 24 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-430-35 Reliability of United States January Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.2 14 -148 38 4 1 Exports : 9.4 163 -379 384 10 14 Domestic use : 2.5 152 -574 345 12 12 Ending stocks : 11.4 219 -986 838 15 9 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.4 3 -53 14 1 3 Exports : 13.2 31 -90 97 15 8 Domestic use : 9.8 43 -148 127 11 13 Ending stocks : 30.4 29 -78 98 10 14 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 11 4 Exports : 16.8 10 -37 23 9 13 Domestic use : 5.3 19 -43 70 10 13 Ending stocks : 8.3 13 -52 18 17 7 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 4 3 Exports : 40.7 1 -1 7 5 6 Domestic use : 3.0 12 -39 36 14 10 Ending stocks : 11.2 13 -47 34 12 12 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.5 808 -2728 915 16 8 Exports : 8.3 571 -2050 1050 15 9 Domestic use : 2.2 551 -1256 1016 14 10 Ending stocks : 30.3 73 -214 188 9 14 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.5 378 -1418 575 17 7 Exports : 16.3 247 -800 839 11 11 Domestic use : 2.3 298 -885 400 18 6 Ending stocks : 15.8 235 -583 538 14 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.3 817 -852 2111 16 6 Pork : 2.8 470 -1240 1717 15 7 Broilers : 1.6 351 -937 512 15 7 Turkeys : 2.1 94 -226 181 13 9 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.3 82 -127 178 14 8 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.4 2.0 -5.7 5.7 10 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 33 and 34 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2004/05 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 24 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2004 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. -------------- End of File ---------------