ISSN: 1554-9089 WASDE-425 August 12, 2005 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2005/06 ending stocks of wheat are down 66 million bushels from last month due to lower production and higher exports. Total wheat production is 41 million bushels less than last month primarily because of lower yields of other spring wheat. Projected exports are up 25 million bushels from last month due to less competition from Argentina and strong global demand for high quality wheat. The 2005/06 projected price range is $2.85 to $3.35 per bushel, up 25 cents from last month because of smaller production, larger exports, and stronger-than-expected prices. Projected 2005/06 global wheat production is down slightly from last month, consumption and trade are nearly unchanged, but ending stocks are down. Production is down 2.2 million tons due mostly to smaller crops in the EU-25 (down 2.3 million), Argentina (down 1.5 million), and the United States. This is partially offset by larger crops in China (up 2 million tons), Ukraine (up 0.5 million), South Africa, and Moldova. Projected global trade is nearly unchanged. The most noteworthy import changes are China (down 1 million tons), the EU-25 (up 0.7 million), and Algeria (up 0.3 million). Forecast exports rise for Russia (up 1 million tons), the United States, and Ukraine (up 0.5 million), but decline for Argentina (down 1.5 million) and the EU-25 (down 1 million). Global consumption decreases fractionally with the largest month-to-month changes occurring in Russia (down 1 million tons), the EU-25 (up 0.5 million), and Algeria (up 0.3 million). Global 2005/06 wheat ending stocks fall slightly with the largest declines forecast for the United States, the EU-25, Argentina, and Russia, which are only partially offset by increases in China (up nearly 1 million tons), as well as smaller increases in the stocks of many other countries. COARSE GRAINS: Relative to last month, the outlook for 2005/06 corn is for reduced production, lower domestic consumption, smaller stocks, and higher prices. USDA's first survey-based forecast for 2005 corn production is 10.35 billion bushels, down 435 million bushels from last month's projected crop, which was based on trend yields adjusted for crop conditions. Projected feed and residual use of corn is down 100 million bushels. Projections for the other categories of domestic consumption and exports are unchanged. Corn ending stocks are down 340 million bushels from last month and 210 million lower than the previous year. Corn prices in 2005/06 are projected to average $1.80 to $2.20, up 10 cents on each end from last month compared with $2.07 for 2004/05. The first survey-based forecast for 2005 grain sorghum production is 380 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from last month's projected crop. Most of the decline is offset by lower domestic consumption and exports. Grain sorghum ending stocks are down 4 million bushels from last month and 7 million lower than the previous year. Grain sorghum prices in 2005/06 are projected to average $1.60 to $2.00, up 10 cents on each end from last month compared with $1.75 for 2004/05. The global outlook for 2005/06 is for decreased coarse grains production, lower consumption, fractional changes in trade, and a sharp drop in stocks relative to last month. Smaller crops are projected in the United States, the EU-25 (down 2.5 million tons), Canada, and Ukraine. Production is up in Tanzania, Kenya, and several other countries. Global coarse grain consumption is down 3.5 million tons with the largest declines occurring in the United States, the EU-25 (down 1.1 million tons), as well as other countries. Global imports and exports are little changed. Global ending stocks drop 8 million tons from last month and are down 29 million from 2004/05. The largest stocks decline occurs in the United States and the EU-25 (down 1.5 million tons). One noteworthy change made in the 2004/05 outlook is a 2-million-ton increase in China's corn crop. China's 2004/05 corn exports are raised 1 million tons to 7 million. RICE: USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2005/06 U.S. rice crop is 226.8 million cwt, up 5.8 million cwt from last month's projection, but down 4.1 million cwt from the record crop in 2004/05. The U.S. 2005/06 average yield is forecast at 6,897 pounds per acre, up 176 pounds per acre from last month, but down just 45 pounds per acre from last year's record. Long-grain production is forecast at a record 173.0 million cwt, up 3.5 million cwt from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 53.8 million cwt, 2.3 million cwt above last month. U.S. 2005/06 exports are projected at 121 million cwt, up 2 million cwt from last month, and 12 million cwt above 2004/05. Domestic and residual use is nearly unchanged from a month ago. Ending stocks are projected at 29.5 million cwt, up 3.9 million cwt from last month. The season-average farm price is projected at $7.25 to $7.55, down 5 cents per cwt on each end from last month, compared to $7.30 per cwt in 2004/05. Projected global 2005/06 production, consumption, and ending stocks are lowered from a month ago, while imports and exports are nearly unchanged. World 2005/06 rice production is projected at 405.3 million tons, 4.6 million tons below last month, but 4.2 million tons above 2004/05. The decline in the world rice crop is due primarily to reduced production in India, which is partially offset by increases for Bangladesh, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States. World 2005/06 ending stocks are projected at 66.5 million tons, 0.4 million tons below last month, and 8.3 million tons below 2004/05. These are the lowest ending stocks since 1982/83 and the lowest stocks-to-use ratio since 1974/75. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at 87.4 million tons, down 1.7 million tons from last month mainly due to reduced soybean yield prospects resulting from dry weather in the eastern Corn Belt. Soybean yields are forecast at 38.7 bushels per acre, 1.2 bushels below last month's trend yield projection and 3.8 bushels below last year's record yield. The first USDA survey- based forecast of U.S. soybean production is 2.791 billion bushels, 99 million bushels below the July forecast and 350 million bushels below last year's record crop. Peanut production is forecast at 5.1 billion pounds, up sharply from last year, while cottonseed is projected to decline 8 percent from last year's record. Soybean exports and crush are both reduced this month due to reduced supplies and higher soybean prices. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 180 million bushels, down 30 million from last month. U.S. soybean meal exports for 2005/06 are lowered from last month because of reduced soybean supplies and higher soybean meal prices. Soybean meal exports are projected at 6.3 million short tons, down 500 thousand tons from last month and 1.1 million below 2004/05. U.S. soybean oil export prospects are also reduced this month. Soybean oil ending stocks are reduced 175 million pounds to 1.5 billion pounds. U.S. season-average soybean prices are projected at $5.50 to $6.50 this month, up 40 cents on both ends of the range in response to tighter U.S. supplies. Soybean meal prices are projected at $175 to $205 per short ton, up $10 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are also projected higher this month at 23 to 26 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at 377.3 million tons, down 1.3 million tons from last month as higher foreign production is more than offset by a decline in the United States. Foreign rapeseed production is raised this month as increases for Canada and EU-25 more than offset lower production for China. Foreign sunflowerseed production is also raised based on improved prospects for crops in Russia and EU-25. Other changes include lower peanut production for China, and lower cottonseed production for Brazil. Reduced oilseed production and slightly higher crush leave 2005/06 global oilseed ending stocks down 1.8 million tons at 56.1 million tons. Global oilseed stocks are projected to remain record high despite this month's reduction. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2005/06 is decreased 119,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower beginning stocks and production more than offsetting a 70,000-ton increase in imports due to U.S.-Dominican Republic- Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR- CAFTA). Beet sugar production is reduced 161,000 tons, based on processors' reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Use is unchanged and ending stocks are lowered to 785,000 tons. For 2004/05, ending stocks are reduced 28,000 tons, mainly due to Louisiana processors lowering production projections for September 2005 (down 53,000 tons), which are partially offset by a 40,000- ton increase in high-tier imports from Mexico. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2005 and 2006 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. trading partners. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. The total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 and 2006 are generally unchanged. Small adjustments are made to reflect actual output in the second quarter of 2005. Third quarter pork production is reduced slightly from last month as the pace of slaughter has been slower-than-expected. Beef forecasts are unchanged from last month as previous forecasts assumed that the border would open in August. The July 1 cattle inventory report for Canada will be released on August 17, which will provide an opportunity to reevaluate Canadian cattle supplies. With the exception of second quarter estimates, poultry and egg production forecasts are unchanged. Red meat trade forecasts are little changed. Broiler exports are raised in 2005 and 2006 as foreign demand for broilers is stronger than expected. Forecast 2005 prices are little changed. The cattle price forecast is reduced $1 per cwt in the third quarter as prices in July were lower-than-expected, but the hog price forecast is raised $1 per cwt on higher July prices. Forecast broiler and egg prices are lowered slightly in the third and fourth quarters. Milk production in 2005 and 2006 is forecast higher than last month as both the number of cows and milk per cow are raised. Commercial use, especially for skim solids, is expected to remain firm through the forecast period, however, fat basis stocks are expected to increase in 2006. As a result, the Class III price is unchanged in 2005, but lower in 2006. The Class IV price forecast is higher in 2005 but unchanged in 2006. The all milk price for 2005 is slightly higher at $14.95 to $15.15 per cwt, but the 2006 forecast is lowered to $12.85 to $13.85 per cwt. COTTON: This month's U.S. forecasts for 2005/06 include higher production, which is partially offset by lower beginning stocks, generating a total supply that is 3 percent above last month. Production is raised 1.5 million bales to 21.3 million, reflecting USDA's first survey-based estimate of the crop; the increase from last month is mainly attributable to lower abandonment, with yield marginally higher. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are raised 500,000 bales. Ending stocks are forecast 4.5 percent higher than last month. The world 2005/06 forecasts also show lower beginning stocks and higher production relative to last month, with ending stocks up about 2 percent. Production is raised in the United States, India, and the African Franc Zone, but reduced in Brazil and Australia. Marginal increases in consumption and trade reflect changes in several countries. World stocks are pegged at 49.8 million bales, down 2 percent from the beginning level. The 2004/05 U.S. and world estimates are revised mainly to reflect new trade information. Recent data indicate higher imports by China and Thailand, partially offset by lower imports by Mexico. Exports are raised for the United States and Cote d'Ivoire, but lowered for Uzbekistan. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 32. APPROVED: CHARLES F. CONNER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on September 12, 2005. In 2005, the WASDE report will be released on Sept. 12, Oct. 12, Nov. 10, and Dec. 9. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. 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WASDE-425-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 1,859.20 2,302.95 240.56 1,949.15 353.80 2004/05 (Est.) : 2,035.02 2,388.82 235.33 1,993.11 395.71 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 1,966.27 2,360.38 232.27 1,998.76 361.62 August : 1,946.29 2,342.00 232.18 1,990.50 351.50 Wheat : 2003/04 : 553.92 719.70 109.38 588.64 131.06 2004/05 (Est.) : 624.21 755.27 108.26 606.92 148.36 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 612.56 761.28 109.13 617.94 143.34 August : 610.33 758.69 108.79 617.24 141.45 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 914.08 1,081.34 103.84 945.56 135.78 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,009.75 1,145.52 101.02 972.93 172.59 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 943.84 1,114.66 98.20 963.20 151.45 August : 930.67 1,103.26 98.39 959.68 143.58 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 391.19 501.91 27.34 414.95 86.96 2004/05 (Est.) : 401.07 488.02 26.05 413.26 74.76 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 409.87 484.44 24.94 417.61 66.83 August : 405.28 480.05 25.01 413.58 66.47 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 345.33 395.11 88.59 262.12 44.40 2004/05 (Est.) : 385.60 434.53 84.15 276.08 74.30 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 358.63 437.55 84.11 271.82 81.62 August : 345.96 424.76 84.95 268.92 70.90 Wheat : 2003/04 : 63.81 78.90 31.52 32.51 14.87 2004/05 (Est.) : 58.74 75.53 28.92 31.92 14.69 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 60.10 76.69 25.86 31.79 19.05 August : 58.98 75.58 26.54 31.79 17.26 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 275.10 308.48 53.75 225.96 28.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 319.45 350.40 51.73 240.22 58.45 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 291.52 352.25 54.48 236.01 61.76 August : 279.78 340.38 54.57 233.11 52.71 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 6.42 7.73 3.31 3.66 0.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 7.41 8.60 3.50 3.95 1.15 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 7.02 8.61 3.78 4.02 0.82 August : 7.20 8.80 3.84 4.02 0.94 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-425-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 1,513.86 1,907.84 151.97 1,687.02 309.40 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,649.42 1,954.29 151.18 1,717.03 321.42 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 1,607.63 1,922.83 148.16 1,726.94 280.00 August : 1,600.32 1,917.24 147.24 1,721.58 280.61 Wheat : 2003/04 : 490.11 640.80 77.86 556.13 116.19 2004/05 (Est.) : 565.47 679.74 79.34 575.00 133.67 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 552.46 684.59 83.28 586.15 124.29 August : 551.35 683.11 82.25 585.45 124.20 Coarse grains 5/ : 2003/04 : 638.98 772.86 50.09 719.60 107.01 2004/05 (Est.) : 690.29 795.12 49.29 732.71 114.14 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 652.32 762.41 43.72 727.19 89.70 August : 650.89 762.88 43.82 726.57 90.88 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 384.77 494.18 24.03 411.29 86.20 2004/05 (Est.) : 393.66 479.43 22.55 409.32 73.61 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 402.85 475.83 21.17 413.59 66.01 August : 398.08 471.25 21.17 409.56 65.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2003/04 : 95.11 137.16 33.07 98.32 40.16 2004/05 (Est.) : 119.85 160.01 34.47 108.07 50.88 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 108.60 159.73 38.11 111.76 48.95 August : 109.79 160.66 38.22 112.02 49.81 : United States 2003/04 : 18.26 23.69 13.76 6.22 3.51 2004/05 (Est.) : 23.25 26.79 14.00 6.25 6.50 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 19.80 27.04 14.50 5.80 6.70 August : 21.29 27.83 15.00 5.80 7.00 : Foreign 3/ 2003/04 : 76.86 113.48 19.31 92.10 36.65 2004/05 (Est.) : 96.60 133.22 20.47 101.82 44.38 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 88.80 132.69 23.61 105.96 42.25 August : 88.50 132.83 23.22 106.22 42.81 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-425-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 334.29 379.15 67.03 278.39 40.02 2004/05 (Est.) : 379.24 419.26 72.53 298.63 53.58 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 378.66 431.17 77.41 306.63 57.86 August : 377.33 430.91 77.86 307.69 56.07 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 189.62 195.13 58.27 189.47 4.80 2004/05 (Est.) : 201.94 206.73 58.02 201.35 5.10 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 209.11 213.83 59.85 208.21 4.77 August : 209.37 214.46 59.97 209.06 5.02 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 100.61 107.53 38.41 98.74 7.00 2004/05 (Est.) : 107.79 114.79 40.39 106.20 7.27 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 111.02 118.40 42.31 110.42 7.05 August : 111.26 118.54 42.57 110.71 6.93 : : United States Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 76.60 82.94 25.16 45.53 4.15 2004/05 (Est.) : 96.44 101.26 30.76 50.01 9.36 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 89.14 98.74 31.80 50.25 7.02 August : 87.41 97.30 30.74 49.92 6.32 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 35.21 37.29 4.94 32.08 0.27 2004/05 (Est.) : 38.88 40.66 6.88 33.47 0.31 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 38.85 40.64 6.38 33.96 0.30 August : 38.48 40.29 5.93 34.07 0.30 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 8.77 11.60 0.74 10.06 0.80 2004/05 (Est.) : 9.66 12.18 0.88 10.28 1.01 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 9.72 12.47 1.03 10.40 1.04 August : 9.66 12.36 0.94 10.45 0.97 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 257.69 296.21 41.87 232.86 35.87 2004/05 (Est.) : 282.80 318.00 41.77 248.63 44.23 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 289.52 332.43 45.62 256.38 50.85 August : 289.92 333.61 47.12 257.77 49.75 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 154.41 157.84 53.33 157.40 4.52 2004/05 (Est.) : 163.06 166.07 51.14 167.88 4.78 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 170.27 173.20 53.47 174.26 4.47 August : 170.89 174.17 54.04 174.99 4.73 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 91.84 95.93 37.67 88.68 6.20 2004/05 (Est.) : 98.13 102.61 39.50 95.92 6.26 2005/06 (Proj.) : July : 101.30 105.93 41.28 100.02 6.01 August : 101.60 106.17 41.63 100.26 5.95 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-425-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.1 59.7 58.1 58.1 Harvested : 53.1 50.0 50.4 50.4 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 44.2 43.2 43.8 43.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 491 546 540 540 Production : 2,345 2,158 2,208 2,167 Imports : 63 71 70 70 Supply, total : 2,899 2,775 2,818 2,777 Food : 907 895 890 890 Seed : 80 79 78 78 Feed and residual : 208 199 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,194 1,173 1,168 1,168 Exports : 1,158 1,063 950 975 Use, total : 2,353 2,235 2,118 2,143 Ending stocks : 546 540 700 634 CCC inventory : 61 54 Free stocks : 485 486 Outstanding loans : 37 58 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.40 3.40 2.60- 3.10 2.85- 3.35 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2004/05 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 157 64 72 26 546 Production : 856 525 380 306 90 2,158 Supply, total 3/ : 1,084 690 466 390 145 2,775 Domestic use : 503 217 256 120 77 1,173 Exports : 388 314 122 207 31 1,063 Use, total : 891 531 378 327 108 2,235 Ending stocks, total : 193 159 88 63 37 540 : 2005/06 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 193 159 88 63 37 540 Production : 913 516 320 325 93 2,167 Supply, total 3/ : 1,107 684 428 398 159 2,777 Domestic use : 499 245 243 107 74 1,168 Exports : 385 270 90 190 40 975 Use, total : 884 515 333 297 114 2,143 Ending stocks, total : August : 223 169 95 101 45 634 July : 254 205 90 100 51 700 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price receive by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-425-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.0 97.0 96.9 * 96.9 Harvested : 85.7 86.0 85.8 * 85.8 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.21 3.71 3.39 3.26 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 30.9 28.7 58.6 58.4 Production : 274.9 319.2 291.3 279.6 Imports : 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 Supply, total : 308.2 350.0 351.9 340.0 Feed and residual : 155.7 166.0 157.3 154.4 Food, seed & industrial : 69.9 73.9 78.4 78.4 Domestic, total : 225.7 239.9 235.7 232.8 Exports : 53.8 51.7 54.5 54.6 Use, total : 279.4 291.6 290.2 287.4 Ending stocks, total : 28.7 58.4 61.7 52.7 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 28.7 58.4 Outstanding loans : 4.4 7.1 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.6 80.9 81.6 * 81.6 Harvested : 70.9 73.6 74.4 * 74.4 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 142.2 160.4 145.0 * 139.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,087 958 2,115 2,110 Production : 10,089 11,807 10,785 10,350 Imports : 14 10 10 10 Supply, total : 11,190 12,775 12,910 12,470 Feed and residual : 5,795 6,150 5,850 5,750 Food, seed & industrial : 2,537 2,690 2,870 2,870 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 1,168 1,325 1,500 1,500 Domestic, total : 8,332 8,840 8,720 8,620 Exports : 1,900 1,825 1,950 1,950 Use, total : 10,232 10,665 10,670 10,570 Ending stocks, total : 958 2,110 2,240 1,900 CCC inventory : 0 1 Free stocks : 958 2,109 Outstanding loans : 164 275 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.42 2.07 1.70- 2.10 1.80- 2.20 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. Projected corn yield derived from a linear trend fit over 1960-2004 (1988 omitted), adjusted for crop conditions. WASDE-425-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.4 7.5 7.0 * 7.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.8 6.5 6.0 * 6.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 52.7 69.8 66.3 * 63.1 Beginning stocks : 43 34 46 46 Production : 411 455 400 380 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 454 488 446 427 Feed and residual : 182 200 170 160 Food, seed & industrial : 40 52 53 53 Total domestic : 222 252 223 213 Exports : 199 190 180 175 Use, total : 421 442 403 388 Ending stocks, total : 34 46 43 39 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.39 1.75 1.50- 1.90 1.60- 2.00 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.3 4.5 4.0 * 4.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.0 3.5 * 3.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 69.4 70.0 * 68.2 Beginning stocks : 69 120 129 129 Production : 278 279 243 237 Imports : 21 12 15 15 Supply, total : 368 412 387 380 Feed and residual : 72 115 105 100 Food, seed & industrial : 157 145 140 140 Total domestic : 229 260 245 240 Exports : 19 23 15 25 Use, total : 248 283 260 265 Ending stocks, total : 120 129 127 115 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.83 2.48 2.10- 2.50 2.15- 2.55 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.6 4.1 4.3 * 4.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.2 1.8 2.0 * 2.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 65.0 64.7 66.5 * 64.7 Beginning stocks : 50 65 58 58 Production : 144 116 131 128 Imports : 90 88 85 85 Supply, total : 284 269 274 271 Feed and residual : 144 134 130 130 Food, seed & industrial : 73 74 74 74 Total domestic : 217 208 204 204 Exports : 2 3 3 3 Use, total : 219 211 207 207 Ending stocks, total : 65 58 67 64 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.48 1.48 1.20- 1.60 1.35- 1.75 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Sorghum yield is based on yield models for major producing States adjusted for crop conditions. Barley and oats: Area, yield and production as reported in July Crop Production. WASDE-425-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.02 3.35 3.31 * 3.31 Harvested : 3.00 3.33 3.29 * 3.29 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,670 6,942 6,721 * 6,897 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 26.8 23.7 35.9 35.9 Production : 199.9 230.8 221.0 226.8 Imports : 15.0 13.5 14.0 14.0 Supply, total : 241.7 268.0 270.9 276.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 115.0 123.1 126.2 126.1 Exports, total 4/ : 103.1 109.0 119.0 121.0 Rough : 34.4 35.0 35.0 36.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 68.7 74.0 84.0 85.0 Use, total : 218.0 232.1 245.2 247.1 Ending stocks : 23.7 35.9 25.7 29.5 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.8 70.8 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.08 7.30 7.30- 7.60 7.25- 7.55 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 2.57 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,451 6,569 Beginning stocks : 15.7 10.3 22.3 21.8 Production : 149.0 168.9 169.5 173.0 Supply, total 7/ : 174.5 190.0 203.0 206.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 83.4 86.2 91.0 91.0 Exports 8/ : 80.7 82.0 93.0 94.0 Use, total : 164.2 168.2 184.0 185.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 21.8 19.0 21.0 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.69 0.75 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,407 8,212 Beginning stocks : 9.3 12.4 12.6 13.1 Production : 50.9 61.9 51.5 53.8 Supply, total 7/ : 66.2 77.0 66.8 69.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 31.5 36.9 35.2 35.1 Exports 8/ : 22.3 27.0 26.0 27.0 Use, total : 53.9 63.9 61.2 62.1 Ending stocks : 12.4 13.1 5.6 7.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0; 2005/06-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. Projected yield derived from State-level average yields by class (2002-2004) weighted by area. WASDE-425-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.4 75.2 73.3 * 73.1 Harvested : 72.5 74.0 72.4 * 72.2 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 33.9 42.5 39.9 * 38.7 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 178 112 290 300 Production : 2,454 3,141 2,890 2,791 Imports : 6 5 3 3 Supply, total : 2,638 3,258 3,183 3,094 Crushings : 1,530 1,690 1,690 1,670 Exports : 887 1,100 1,135 1,095 Seed : 92 90 90 90 Residual : 17 79 _3/ 58 59 Use, total : 2,525 2,958 2,973 2,914 Ending stocks : 112 300 210 180 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.34 5.80 5.10- 6.10 5.50 - 6.50 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,491 1,076 1,696 1,591 Production : 17,080 19,240 _4/ 19,065 18,840 Imports : 306 25 110 65 Supply, total : 18,877 20,341 20,871 20,496 Domestic : 16,866 17,300 17,650 17,650 Exports : 936 1,450 1,550 1,350 Use, total : 17,802 18,750 19,200 19,000 Ending stocks : 1,076 1,591 1,671 1,496 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 29.97 23.25 21.00- 23.00- : 24.00 26.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 220 211 250 260 Production : 36,324 40,384 _4/ 40,235 39,725 Imports : 285 165 165 165 Supply, total : 36,830 40,760 40,650 40,150 Domestic : 31,449 33,200 33,650 33,650 Exports : 5,170 7,300 6,750 6,250 Use, total : 36,619 40,500 40,400 39,900 Ending stocks : 211 260 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 256.05 187.00 165.00- 175.00- : 195.00 205.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through May, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/ Based on an October year crush estimate of 1,695 million bushels. *Planted and harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage report; projected yield based on 1978-2004 regional trend. WASDE-425-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :====================== : : : July August ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,670 1,897 1,476 1,448 Production 2/ : 8,649 8,052 8,152 7,991 Beet sugar : 4,692 4,716 4,443 4,282 Cane sugar : 3,957 3,336 3,709 3,709 Florida : 2,154 1,690 1,899 1,899 Hawaii : 251 268 254 254 Louisiana : 1,377 1,218 1,376 1,376 Texas : 175 160 180 180 Imports : 1,754 1,769 1,591 1,661 TRQ 3/ : 1,230 1,209 1,206 1,276 Other program 4/ : 464 400 325 325 Other 5/ : 60 160 60 60 Supply, total : 12,073 11,718 11,219 11,100 : Exports : 288 240 200 200 Deliveries : 9,862 10,030 10,115 10,115 Food : 9,678 9,875 9,950 9,950 Other 6/ : 184 155 165 165 Miscellaneous 7/ : 26 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,176 10,270 10,315 10,315 Ending stocks : 1,897 1,448 904 785 Stocks to use ratio : 18.6 14.1 8.8 7.6 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2005/06 are on processor reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2005/06, includes only the U.S. commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus shortfall of 50,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Includes high-tier and other. 6/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- Metric-Ton Equivalent : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-425-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.48 13.66 14.03 * 14.07 Harvested : 12.00 13.06 12.75 * 13.66 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 730 855 745 * 748 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 5.39 3.51 7.20 6.50 Production : 18.26 23.25 19.80 21.29 Imports : 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 23.69 26.79 27.04 27.83 Domestic use : 6.22 6.25 5.80 5.80 Exports : 13.76 14.00 14.50 15.00 Use, total : 19.98 20.25 20.30 20.80 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.20 0.04 0.04 0.03 Ending stocks : 3.51 6.50 6.70 7.00 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 61.8 42.8 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2004/05 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-June. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. *For July, planted area reported in June 30 "Acreage." Projected harvested area based on 2002-2004 U.S. average acreage abandonment. Projected yield based on 2002-2004 U.S. average yield per harvested acre. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2005/06 is 34.5 percent. WASDE-425-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 165.78 553.92 102.21 96.80 588.64 109.38 131.06 United States : 13.37 63.81 1.72 5.67 32.51 31.52 14.87 Total foreign : 152.41 490.11 100.50 91.14 556.13 77.86 116.19 Major exporters 4/ : 27.04 170.69 6.22 57.55 126.73 54.16 23.06 Argentina : 1.53 14.00 0.00 0.08 5.23 9.41 0.90 Australia : 3.14 26.23 0.07 3.23 5.96 18.03 5.46 Canada : 5.73 23.55 0.23 3.44 7.64 15.79 6.08 EU-25 5/ : 16.64 106.90 5.91 50.80 107.90 10.93 10.63 Major importers 6/ : 78.87 149.06 51.89 9.97 210.64 6.80 62.38 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.18 0.20 9.80 1.38 0.51 China : 60.38 86.49 3.75 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.85 17.99 7.95 1.30 26.22 1.00 5.56 N. Africa 8/ : 5.96 16.29 15.48 0.30 30.08 0.17 7.47 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.58 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 10.09 1.32 9.20 0.32 2.15 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.01 0.60 68.26 5.65 6.90 FSU-12 : 16.48 60.91 7.26 17.58 65.87 7.79 10.99 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.03 12.50 35.50 3.11 2.65 Kazakhstan : 3.67 11.00 0.01 2.70 6.80 4.11 3.78 Ukraine : 3.25 3.60 3.37 0.43 9.03 0.07 1.13 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 131.06 624.21 108.31 106.64 606.92 108.26 148.36 United States : 14.87 58.74 1.92 5.41 31.92 28.92 14.69 Total foreign : 116.19 565.47 106.39 101.23 575.00 79.34 133.67 Major exporters 4/ : 23.06 200.03 7.54 65.18 135.80 54.10 40.73 Argentina : 0.90 16.00 0.01 0.08 5.30 10.80 0.81 Australia : 5.46 21.50 0.08 3.60 6.30 14.80 5.93 Canada : 6.08 25.86 0.25 5.00 9.20 15.00 7.99 EU-25 5/ : 10.63 136.67 7.20 56.50 115.00 13.50 26.00 Major importers 6/ : 62.38 153.89 59.69 8.19 212.56 3.26 60.14 Brazil : 0.51 5.85 5.30 0.30 10.20 0.02 1.43 China : 43.29 91.00 7.00 4.00 102.00 1.17 38.12 Select. Mideast 7/ : 5.56 18.16 9.30 1.90 27.64 0.60 4.79 N. Africa 8/ : 7.47 16.62 17.60 0.30 32.43 0.21 9.05 Pakistan : 1.58 19.00 1.50 0.40 19.50 0.05 2.53 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.15 0.00 9.55 0.86 9.10 0.39 2.21 Selected other : India : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 72.88 2.00 4.10 FSU-12 : 10.99 86.43 4.49 20.91 72.91 14.79 14.22 Russia : 2.65 45.30 1.20 13.70 37.70 7.60 3.85 Kazakhstan : 3.78 9.95 0.02 2.70 7.40 2.70 3.64 Ukraine : 1.13 17.50 0.05 2.10 11.70 4.30 2.68 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-425-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 148.73 612.56 105.69 112.24 617.94 109.13 143.34 August : 148.36 610.33 105.94 112.24 617.24 108.79 141.45 United States : July : 14.69 60.10 1.91 5.44 31.79 25.86 19.05 August : 14.69 58.98 1.91 5.44 31.79 26.54 17.26 Total foreign : July : 134.04 552.46 103.78 106.80 586.15 83.28 124.29 August : 133.67 551.35 104.03 106.80 585.45 82.25 124.20 Major exporters 4/ : July : 40.83 188.30 6.34 67.78 138.90 57.50 39.07 August : 40.73 184.47 7.04 68.28 139.40 55.00 37.84 Argentina Jul : 1.11 15.00 0.01 0.08 5.30 10.00 0.82 Aug : 0.81 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.30 8.50 0.52 Australia Jul : 5.73 21.50 0.08 3.40 6.10 15.50 5.71 Aug : 5.93 21.50 0.08 3.40 6.10 15.50 5.91 Canada Jul : 7.99 24.00 0.25 4.30 8.50 16.00 7.74 Aug : 7.99 24.00 0.25 4.30 8.50 16.00 7.74 EU-25 5/ Jul : 26.00 127.80 6.00 60.00 119.00 16.00 24.80 Aug : 26.00 125.47 6.70 60.50 119.50 15.00 23.67 Major importers 6/ : July : 59.91 153.36 57.05 7.70 212.64 3.55 54.13 August : 60.14 155.35 56.45 7.70 212.94 3.65 55.35 Brazil Jul : 1.20 4.80 5.20 0.20 10.20 0.05 0.95 Aug : 1.43 4.80 5.20 0.20 10.20 0.05 1.18 China Jul : 38.19 93.00 4.00 3.50 101.00 1.00 33.19 Aug : 38.12 95.00 3.00 3.50 101.00 1.00 34.12 Sel. Mideast 7/Jul : 4.79 18.33 10.30 1.90 27.39 1.00 5.03 Aug : 4.79 18.32 10.30 1.90 27.39 1.00 5.02 N. Africa 8/ Jul : 9.05 12.38 18.30 0.30 32.83 0.21 6.69 Aug : 9.05 12.38 18.60 0.30 33.13 0.21 6.69 Pakistan Jul : 2.53 21.00 0.50 0.40 20.00 0.05 3.98 Aug : 2.53 21.00 0.50 0.40 20.00 0.05 3.98 SE Asia 9/ Jul : 2.21 0.00 9.45 0.88 9.35 0.29 2.02 Aug : 2.21 0.00 9.55 0.88 9.35 0.39 2.02 Selected other : India Jul : 4.10 72.00 1.00 0.50 73.00 0.50 3.60 Aug : 4.10 72.00 1.00 0.50 73.00 0.50 3.60 FSU-12 Jul : 14.47 89.68 4.14 24.21 76.82 17.19 14.28 Aug : 14.22 90.53 4.14 23.71 75.92 18.74 14.23 Russia Jul : 4.15 47.00 1.20 16.00 40.00 8.00 4.35 Aug : 3.85 47.00 1.20 15.50 39.00 9.00 4.05 Kazakhstan Jul : 3.64 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.40 4.00 3.76 Aug : 3.64 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.40 4.00 3.76 Ukraine Jul : 2.68 18.00 0.05 3.30 13.30 5.00 2.43 Aug : 2.68 18.50 0.05 3.30 13.30 5.50 2.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-425-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 167.26 914.08 100.85 614.32 945.56 103.84 135.78 United States : 30.94 275.10 2.44 155.79 225.96 53.75 28.76 Total foreign : 136.32 638.98 98.41 458.53 719.60 50.09 107.01 Major exporters 4/ : 7.87 70.09 2.44 33.89 47.08 22.94 10.37 Argentina : 1.04 18.60 0.05 5.00 7.36 11.33 1.00 Australia : 1.20 14.81 0.00 5.47 6.70 7.22 2.09 Canada : 3.14 26.33 2.08 19.21 23.81 3.64 4.09 Major importers 5/ : 37.94 195.31 79.03 205.51 274.60 5.50 32.18 EU-25 6/ : 21.50 122.91 8.01 101.94 135.47 4.39 12.56 Japan : 2.40 0.20 19.98 15.61 20.44 0.00 2.15 Mexico : 3.89 30.10 8.85 21.15 37.23 0.01 5.60 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 3.77 26.03 15.74 33.99 40.52 0.35 4.68 Saudi Arabia : 2.65 0.20 8.42 8.65 8.84 0.00 2.43 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.04 15.50 3.92 12.73 18.04 0.75 1.67 South Korea : 1.29 0.30 8.99 6.78 9.14 0.00 1.43 Selected other : China : 66.37 124.64 1.53 99.46 139.20 7.72 45.61 Other Europe : 3.09 18.84 1.35 17.20 20.79 0.36 2.12 FSU-12 : 11.98 55.37 1.46 39.23 56.57 6.09 6.16 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.95 21.53 33.25 2.47 2.93 Ukraine : 2.65 15.60 0.14 10.50 13.80 2.77 1.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 135.78 1009.75 99.21 637.43 972.93 101.02 172.59 United States : 28.76 319.45 2.18 166.10 240.22 51.73 58.45 Total foreign : 107.01 690.29 97.03 471.33 732.71 49.29 114.14 Major exporters 4/ : 10.37 74.24 2.84 35.64 49.39 24.92 13.14 Argentina : 1.00 23.90 0.01 6.45 9.06 14.61 1.25 Australia : 2.09 10.96 0.00 5.11 6.34 5.17 1.54 Canada : 4.09 26.44 2.50 19.57 24.42 2.80 5.81 Major importers 5/ : 32.18 223.13 75.01 212.02 282.29 4.90 43.12 EU-25 6/ : 12.56 150.58 3.11 106.26 139.64 4.21 22.41 Japan : 2.15 0.20 19.94 15.41 20.24 0.00 2.05 Mexico : 5.60 29.08 9.55 22.78 38.95 0.01 5.26 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.68 26.78 19.40 37.00 44.20 0.11 6.54 Saudi Arabia : 2.43 0.20 6.70 6.43 6.61 0.00 2.72 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.67 15.87 3.02 12.75 18.56 0.58 1.43 South Korea : 1.43 0.34 8.46 6.79 9.22 0.00 1.01 Selected other : China : 45.61 139.05 2.11 100.60 142.45 7.03 37.29 Other Europe : 2.12 28.87 0.74 19.38 24.72 2.14 4.87 FSU-12 : 6.16 62.86 1.32 38.02 54.50 7.69 8.15 Russia : 2.93 29.55 0.90 19.00 29.35 1.00 3.03 Ukraine : 1.82 23.00 0.07 11.35 15.20 6.51 3.19 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-425-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 170.82 943.84 96.35 625.03 963.20 98.20 151.45 August : 172.59 930.67 96.31 620.95 959.68 98.39 143.58 United States : July : 58.58 291.52 2.15 157.41 236.01 54.48 61.76 August : 58.45 279.78 2.15 154.50 233.11 54.57 52.71 Total foreign : July : 112.24 652.32 94.21 467.62 727.19 43.72 89.70 August : 114.14 650.89 94.16 466.45 726.57 43.82 90.88 Major exporters 4/ : July : 13.15 67.73 2.33 35.35 49.45 23.41 10.36 August : 13.14 67.23 2.83 35.35 49.40 23.41 10.40 Argentina Jul : 1.42 22.65 0.00 6.66 9.27 13.51 1.28 Aug : 1.25 22.65 0.00 6.66 9.27 13.51 1.11 Australia Jul : 1.54 10.06 0.00 4.74 5.99 4.47 1.13 Aug : 1.54 10.06 0.00 4.74 5.99 4.47 1.13 Canada Jul : 5.81 25.03 2.06 19.51 24.59 3.60 4.71 Aug : 5.81 24.53 2.56 19.51 24.59 3.60 4.71 Major importers 5/ : July : 42.84 203.22 74.10 209.62 279.86 5.50 34.80 August : 43.12 200.72 73.90 208.54 278.59 5.50 33.66 EU-25 6/ Jul : 22.52 132.79 3.14 102.35 135.79 5.16 17.50 Aug : 22.41 130.29 3.14 101.33 134.67 5.16 16.01 Japan Jul : 2.05 0.19 19.84 15.36 20.19 0.00 1.89 Aug : 2.05 0.19 19.84 15.36 20.19 0.00 1.89 Mexico Jul : 5.26 28.83 9.85 22.98 39.40 0.01 4.53 Aug : 5.26 28.83 9.85 22.98 39.40 0.01 4.53 N Afr/M.East 7/Jul : 6.15 24.52 16.92 36.23 43.04 0.01 4.54 Aug : 6.54 24.52 17.02 36.48 43.19 0.01 4.88 Saudi Arabia Jul : 2.72 0.20 7.40 7.43 7.61 0.00 2.71 Aug : 2.72 0.20 7.40 7.43 7.61 0.00 2.71 S.-east Asia 8/Jul : 1.43 16.27 3.51 13.78 19.64 0.33 1.24 Aug : 1.43 16.27 3.21 13.48 19.34 0.33 1.24 South Korea Jul : 1.01 0.35 8.71 6.94 9.37 0.00 0.69 Aug : 1.01 0.35 8.71 6.94 9.37 0.00 0.69 Selected other : China Jul : 36.19 135.70 2.01 101.90 144.50 3.10 26.30 Aug : 37.29 135.70 2.01 101.90 144.50 3.10 27.40 Other Europe Jul : 4.87 24.28 0.85 19.16 24.44 2.10 3.46 Aug : 4.87 24.38 0.82 19.11 24.39 2.20 3.48 FSU-12 Jul : 8.20 53.64 1.10 34.02 50.67 6.47 5.80 Aug : 8.15 53.71 1.10 33.97 50.54 6.47 5.95 Russia Jul : 3.03 27.80 0.65 17.60 28.20 0.81 2.48 Aug : 3.03 28.00 0.65 17.70 28.40 0.81 2.48 Ukraine Jul : 3.19 16.50 0.09 8.95 12.60 5.18 2.00 Aug : 3.19 16.17 0.09 8.80 12.27 5.18 2.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-425-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 123.60 623.71 76.70 444.57 647.17 77.28 100.14 United States : 27.60 256.28 0.36 147.20 211.64 48.26 24.34 Total foreign : 95.99 367.43 76.34 297.37 435.53 29.02 75.80 Major exporters 4/ : 2.97 24.70 0.25 6.88 13.08 11.67 3.18 Argentina : 0.53 15.00 0.04 2.80 4.40 10.94 0.22 South Africa : 2.44 9.70 0.22 4.08 8.68 0.73 2.96 Major importers 5/ : 13.44 82.89 49.64 91.37 130.97 1.20 13.81 Egypt : 0.20 5.74 3.74 8.00 9.50 0.00 0.18 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.86 5.75 36.01 46.81 0.46 3.17 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.78 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 3.24 21.80 5.74 11.20 26.40 0.01 4.37 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.04 15.37 3.89 12.60 17.90 0.73 1.66 South Korea : 1.29 0.07 8.78 6.60 8.71 0.00 1.43 Selected other : Brazil : 4.80 42.00 0.35 33.00 38.60 4.44 4.11 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.03 8.73 11.23 0.37 1.14 China : 64.97 115.83 0.00 97.00 128.40 7.55 44.85 Other Europe : 2.58 15.13 0.91 14.35 16.67 0.34 1.61 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.53 0.64 9.55 11.04 1.31 1.35 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 100.14 708.89 75.16 468.18 681.16 76.35 127.86 United States : 24.34 299.92 0.25 156.22 224.55 46.36 53.60 Total foreign : 75.80 408.98 74.91 311.96 456.62 30.00 74.26 Major exporters 4/ : 3.18 31.90 0.16 7.80 14.15 16.30 4.79 Argentina : 0.22 19.50 0.01 3.50 5.20 14.00 0.53 South Africa : 2.96 12.40 0.15 4.30 8.95 2.30 4.26 Major importers 5/ : 13.81 96.93 46.61 99.40 139.71 0.76 16.88 Egypt : 0.18 5.78 5.30 9.00 10.60 0.00 0.66 EU-25 6/ : 3.17 53.35 2.50 41.70 52.50 0.20 6.32 Japan : 1.34 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 4.37 22.00 6.00 12.60 27.90 0.01 4.46 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.66 15.67 3.01 12.60 18.40 0.55 1.40 South Korea : 1.43 0.08 8.30 6.70 8.80 0.00 1.01 Selected other : Brazil : 4.11 35.50 1.00 33.50 38.90 0.70 1.01 Canada : 1.14 8.84 2.40 8.30 10.95 0.15 1.28 China : 44.85 130.00 0.10 98.50 131.50 7.00 36.45 Other Europe : 1.61 23.44 0.36 15.89 19.68 1.55 4.19 FSU-12 : 1.35 15.30 0.59 10.94 12.59 2.13 2.52 Russia : 0.16 3.45 0.30 3.00 3.55 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-425-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 125.91 667.51 73.26 462.21 679.10 73.93 114.33 August : 127.86 657.46 73.17 459.62 677.25 74.03 108.07 United States : July : 53.73 273.95 0.25 148.60 221.50 49.53 56.91 August : 53.60 262.90 0.25 146.06 218.96 49.53 48.27 Total foreign : July : 72.18 393.56 73.01 313.62 457.60 24.40 57.42 August : 74.26 394.56 72.92 313.57 458.29 24.50 59.81 Major exporters 4/ : July : 4.69 28.00 0.10 8.00 14.40 14.80 3.59 August : 4.79 28.00 0.10 8.00 14.40 14.80 3.69 Argentina Jul : 0.53 18.50 0.00 3.80 5.50 13.00 0.53 Aug : 0.53 18.50 0.00 3.80 5.50 13.00 0.53 South Africa Jul : 4.16 9.50 0.10 4.20 8.90 1.80 3.06 Aug : 4.26 9.50 0.10 4.20 8.90 1.80 3.16 Major importers 5/ : July : 16.55 91.59 46.80 99.40 139.96 0.91 14.07 August : 16.88 91.39 46.50 99.30 139.76 0.91 14.10 Egypt Jul : 0.36 5.95 4.80 8.90 10.70 0.00 0.41 Aug : 0.66 5.95 4.80 9.10 10.80 0.00 0.61 EU-25 6/ Jul : 6.32 47.85 2.50 40.50 51.10 0.60 4.96 Aug : 6.32 47.65 2.50 40.50 51.10 0.60 4.76 Japan Jul : 1.34 0.00 16.70 12.25 16.75 0.00 1.29 Aug : 1.34 0.00 16.70 12.25 16.75 0.00 1.29 Mexico Jul : 4.43 21.60 6.20 12.90 28.40 0.01 3.83 Aug : 4.46 21.60 6.20 12.90 28.40 0.01 3.86 S.-east Asia 7/Jul : 1.40 16.07 3.50 13.60 19.45 0.30 1.21 Aug : 1.40 16.07 3.20 13.30 19.15 0.30 1.21 South Korea Jul : 1.01 0.08 8.50 6.80 8.90 0.00 0.69 Aug : 1.01 0.08 8.50 6.80 8.90 0.00 0.69 Selected other : Brazil Jul : 1.01 44.00 0.60 35.00 40.80 1.60 3.21 Aug : 1.01 44.00 0.60 35.00 40.80 1.60 3.21 Canada Jul : 1.28 8.50 2.00 8.10 10.80 0.15 0.83 Aug : 1.28 8.00 2.50 8.10 10.80 0.15 0.83 China Jul : 35.45 127.00 0.20 100.00 134.00 3.00 25.65 Aug : 36.45 127.00 0.20 100.00 134.00 3.00 26.65 Other Europe Jul : 4.19 19.72 0.46 16.01 19.80 1.70 2.87 Aug : 4.19 19.82 0.46 16.01 19.80 1.80 2.87 FSU-12 Jul : 2.52 10.25 0.41 9.09 10.68 1.13 1.38 Aug : 2.52 10.45 0.41 9.09 10.68 1.13 1.58 Russia Jul : 0.36 2.20 0.20 2.10 2.60 0.00 0.16 Aug : 0.36 2.20 0.20 2.10 2.60 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-425-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 3/ : 110.72 391.19 25.04 414.95 27.34 86.96 United States : 0.83 6.42 0.48 3.66 3.31 0.76 Total foreign : 109.89 384.77 24.57 411.29 24.03 86.20 Major exporters 4/ : 18.41 133.22 0.30 115.55 19.48 16.90 India : 11.00 88.28 0.00 85.38 3.10 10.80 Pakistan : 0.05 4.85 0.00 2.70 1.95 0.24 Thailand : 3.30 18.01 0.00 9.47 10.14 1.71 Vietnam : 4.07 22.08 0.30 18.00 4.30 4.15 Major importers 5/ : 12.34 59.35 9.41 68.14 0.37 12.59 Brazil : 0.59 8.71 0.70 8.69 0.08 1.23 EU-25 6/ : 0.96 1.72 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.97 Indonesia : 4.34 35.02 0.65 36.00 0.00 4.02 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 1.15 Philippines : 3.81 9.20 1.29 10.25 0.00 4.05 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.21 2.99 5.15 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.13 1.63 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.09 0.35 0.47 0.00 0.11 China : 67.22 112.46 1.12 135.00 0.88 44.93 Egypt : 0.72 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.83 0.49 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.54 0.73 0.00 0.18 South Korea : 1.03 4.45 0.19 4.64 0.21 0.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 3/ : 86.96 401.07 24.85 413.26 26.05 74.76 United States : 0.76 7.41 0.43 3.95 3.50 1.15 Total foreign : 86.20 393.66 24.42 409.32 22.55 73.61 Major exporters 4/ : 16.90 129.86 0.10 112.89 18.60 15.37 India : 10.80 85.31 0.00 82.16 4.25 9.70 Pakistan : 0.24 4.92 0.00 2.75 2.10 0.31 Thailand : 1.71 17.00 0.00 9.48 7.75 1.48 Vietnam : 4.15 22.63 0.10 18.50 4.50 3.88 Major importers 5/ : 12.59 59.60 9.73 68.82 0.44 12.66 Brazil : 1.23 8.98 0.45 9.00 0.20 1.45 EU-25 6/ : 0.97 1.86 1.00 2.53 0.18 1.13 Indonesia : 4.02 34.25 0.90 35.85 0.00 3.32 Nigeria : 1.15 2.30 1.37 4.25 0.00 0.57 Philippines : 4.05 9.45 1.50 10.40 0.00 4.59 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.27 3.45 5.22 0.06 1.43 Selected other : Burma : 1.63 9.57 0.00 10.30 0.15 0.75 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.11 China : 44.93 125.00 0.50 135.10 0.65 34.68 Egypt : 0.49 3.93 0.00 3.33 0.85 0.25 Japan : 1.70 7.94 0.68 8.30 0.20 1.82 Mexico : 0.18 0.20 0.55 0.80 0.00 0.13 South Korea : 0.82 5.00 0.22 4.74 0.00 1.30 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-425-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 74.57 409.87 23.66 417.61 24.94 66.83 August : 74.76 405.28 23.81 413.58 25.01 66.47 United States : July : 1.15 7.02 0.45 4.02 3.78 0.82 August : 1.15 7.20 0.45 4.02 3.84 0.94 Total foreign : July : 73.42 402.85 23.22 413.59 21.17 66.01 August : 73.61 398.08 23.37 409.56 21.17 65.53 Major exporters 4/ : July : 14.33 135.10 0.04 116.29 17.50 15.68 August : 15.37 130.07 0.04 112.29 17.50 15.69 India Jul : 9.80 90.00 0.00 85.00 3.50 11.30 Aug : 9.70 84.50 0.00 81.00 3.50 9.70 Pakistan Jul : 0.31 5.00 0.00 2.80 2.00 0.51 Aug : 0.31 5.00 0.00 2.80 2.00 0.51 Thailand Jul : 0.98 17.80 0.00 9.49 8.00 1.29 Aug : 1.48 17.80 0.00 9.49 8.00 1.79 Vietnam Jul : 3.24 22.30 0.04 19.00 4.00 2.58 Aug : 3.88 22.77 0.04 19.00 4.00 3.69 Major importers 5/ : July : 12.62 59.44 9.19 69.22 0.36 11.66 August : 12.66 59.54 9.44 69.27 0.36 12.01 Brazil Jul : 1.45 8.10 0.55 9.21 0.13 0.77 Aug : 1.45 8.10 0.55 9.21 0.13 0.77 EU-25 6/ Jul : 1.13 1.80 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.18 Aug : 1.13 1.71 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.09 Indonesia Jul : 3.32 34.90 0.70 35.60 0.00 3.32 Aug : 3.32 34.90 0.70 35.60 0.00 3.32 Nigeria Jul : 0.57 2.60 1.40 4.35 0.00 0.22 Aug : 0.57 2.60 1.50 4.35 0.00 0.32 Philippines Jul : 4.55 9.30 1.25 10.60 0.00 4.50 Aug : 4.59 9.50 1.25 10.60 0.00 4.74 Sel. Mideast 7/Jul : 1.43 2.27 3.25 5.32 0.06 1.57 Aug : 1.43 2.27 3.40 5.37 0.06 1.67 Selected other : Burma Jul : 0.75 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.15 0.64 Aug : 0.75 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.15 0.64 C. Am & Car. 8/Jul : 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.10 Aug : 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.10 China Jul : 35.68 127.50 0.60 135.20 0.60 27.98 Aug : 34.68 127.50 0.60 135.20 0.60 26.98 Egypt Jul : 0.25 4.00 0.00 3.35 0.75 0.15 Aug : 0.25 4.00 0.00 3.35 0.75 0.15 Japan Jul : 1.82 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.07 Aug : 1.82 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.07 Mexico Jul : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.83 0.00 0.10 Aug : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.83 0.00 0.10 South Korea Jul : 1.30 4.80 0.25 4.66 0.00 1.69 Aug : 1.30 4.80 0.25 4.66 0.00 1.69 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-425-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World : 42.05 95.11 33.99 98.32 33.07 -0.39 40.16 United States : 5.39 18.26 0.05 6.22 13.76 0.20 3.51 Total foreign : 36.66 76.86 33.94 92.10 19.31 -0.59 36.65 Major exporters 4/ : 11.51 30.74 3.18 18.26 14.83 -0.16 12.49 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.75 6.74 0.01 1.82 4.99 0.00 1.69 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.44 3/ 0.20 4.49 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis. 7/ : 4.85 9.36 0.95 5.02 3.90 -0.20 6.44 Australia : 1.30 1.70 3/ 0.08 2.16 -0.12 0.89 Brazil : 2.88 6.02 0.55 3.95 0.96 -0.10 4.63 Major importers : 22.91 42.67 26.15 67.21 3.05 -0.44 21.91 India : 3.59 13.80 0.80 13.50 0.63 0.00 4.06 Mexico : 1.03 0.36 1.86 2.00 0.12 0.03 1.10 China : 12.85 22.30 8.83 32.00 0.17 -0.60 12.41 EU-25 8/ : 1.52 1.96 3.15 3.90 1.71 0.06 0.96 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.37 4.10 2.37 6.20 0.36 0.00 1.28 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.33 0.15 7.66 8.11 0.06 0.08 1.90 Indonesia : 0.40 0.03 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.56 0.06 1.68 1.85 0.00 0.03 0.42 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World : 40.16 119.85 32.72 108.07 34.47 -0.69 50.88 United States : 3.51 23.25 0.03 6.25 14.00 0.04 6.50 Total foreign : 36.65 96.60 32.69 101.82 20.47 -0.73 44.38 Major exporters 4/ : 12.49 37.84 1.85 19.42 16.19 -0.16 16.73 Pakistan : 2.03 11.30 1.00 10.50 0.50 0.03 3.31 Central Asia 5/ : 1.69 8.04 3/ 1.74 5.74 0.00 2.26 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.28 4.91 3/ 0.20 4.08 0.00 1.90 S. Hemis. 7/ : 6.44 10.17 0.45 5.27 4.20 -0.20 7.79 Australia : 0.89 2.80 3/ 0.07 1.90 -0.12 1.86 Brazil : 4.63 6.00 0.20 4.20 1.65 -0.10 5.08 Major importers : 21.91 54.81 26.28 75.76 2.85 -0.59 24.98 India : 4.06 18.60 0.75 15.00 0.80 0.00 7.61 Mexico : 1.10 0.63 1.70 2.00 0.18 0.03 1.23 China : 12.41 29.00 6.39 38.00 0.03 -0.75 10.52 EU-25 8/ : 0.96 2.30 3.25 3.63 1.64 0.06 1.19 Russia : 0.20 3/ 1.45 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.28 4.15 3.60 7.00 0.15 0.00 1.88 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.90 0.14 9.14 8.71 0.06 0.08 2.34 Indonesia : 0.37 0.03 2.40 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.48 Thailand : 0.42 0.06 2.20 2.10 0.00 0.03 0.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-425-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World : July : 51.13 108.60 38.39 111.76 38.11 -0.70 48.95 August : 50.88 109.79 38.67 112.02 38.22 -0.71 49.81 United States : July : 7.20 19.80 0.04 5.80 14.50 0.04 6.70 August : 6.50 21.29 0.04 5.80 15.00 0.03 7.00 Total foreign : July : 43.93 88.80 38.35 105.96 23.61 -0.74 42.25 August : 44.38 88.50 38.63 106.22 23.22 -0.74 42.81 Major exporters 4/ : July : 16.70 35.43 2.12 19.91 18.52 -0.16 15.97 August : 16.73 34.89 2.13 19.91 18.18 -0.16 15.82 Pakistan Jul : 3.31 9.75 1.15 11.00 0.60 0.03 2.58 Aug : 3.31 9.75 1.15 11.00 0.55 0.03 2.63 Central Asia 5/Jul : 2.17 7.65 3/ 1.76 6.07 0.00 2.00 Aug : 2.26 7.64 3/ 1.76 6.00 0.00 2.14 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jul : 1.92 4.38 3/ 0.19 4.53 0.00 1.58 Aug : 1.90 4.61 3/ 0.19 4.61 0.00 1.71 S. Hemis 7/ Jul : 7.83 10.65 0.42 5.17 5.50 -0.20 8.42 Aug : 7.79 9.90 0.43 5.17 5.20 -0.20 7.94 Australia Jul : 1.86 2.60 3/ 0.06 2.80 -0.12 1.72 Aug : 1.86 2.40 3/ 0.06 2.63 -0.12 1.70 Brazil Jul : 5.08 6.50 0.20 4.10 2.00 -0.10 5.78 Aug : 5.08 6.00 0.20 4.10 1.90 -0.10 5.38 Major importers Jul : 24.57 49.65 31.90 79.38 3.38 -0.59 23.94 Aug : 24.98 49.90 32.19 79.69 3.36 -0.59 24.61 India Jul : 7.61 16.75 0.80 16.00 1.10 0.00 8.06 Aug : 7.61 17.00 0.80 16.10 1.10 0.00 8.21 Mexico Jul : 1.33 0.90 1.20 2.00 0.20 0.03 1.20 Aug : 1.23 0.90 1.20 2.00 0.18 0.03 1.13 China Jul : 10.13 26.00 14.00 41.00 0.03 -0.75 9.86 Aug : 10.52 26.00 14.00 41.00 0.03 -0.75 10.24 EU-25 8/ Jul : 1.15 2.15 2.85 3.26 1.85 0.06 0.98 Aug : 1.19 2.15 2.87 3.28 1.85 0.06 1.01 Russia Jul : 0.22 3/ 1.43 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.20 Aug : 0.22 3/ 1.43 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey Jul : 1.78 3.70 3.30 7.00 0.15 0.00 1.63 Aug : 1.88 3.70 3.35 7.05 0.15 0.00 1.73 Sel. Asia 9/ Jul : 2.34 0.15 8.33 8.68 0.06 0.08 2.01 Aug : 2.34 0.15 8.55 8.81 0.05 0.08 2.10 Indonesia Jul : 0.48 0.03 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Aug : 0.48 0.03 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand Jul : 0.55 0.05 2.00 2.10 0.01 0.03 0.47 Aug : 0.55 0.05 2.10 2.15 0.00 0.03 0.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and estimated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-425-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 40.40 186.26 54.09 163.70 189.89 55.86 35.00 United States : 4.85 66.78 0.15 41.63 44.60 24.13 3.06 Total foreign : 35.54 119.48 53.94 122.07 145.29 31.73 31.94 Major exporters 3/ : 28.49 87.41 0.88 55.36 60.00 29.30 27.47 Argentina : 12.47 33.00 0.54 25.04 26.62 6.71 12.68 Brazil : 15.93 50.50 0.33 29.33 32.24 19.82 14.70 Major importers 4/ : 6.05 17.43 43.57 49.00 63.24 0.34 3.46 China : 4.47 15.39 16.93 25.44 34.38 0.32 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.63 14.64 14.13 15.46 0.01 0.74 Japan : 0.31 0.23 4.69 3.54 4.93 0.00 0.30 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 3.80 3.89 3.93 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 35.00 214.32 62.14 173.05 202.78 62.69 45.98 United States : 3.06 85.48 0.14 45.99 50.58 29.94 8.17 Total foreign : 31.94 128.84 62.01 127.06 152.21 32.75 37.82 Major exporters 3/ : 27.47 93.80 1.15 55.92 61.09 30.30 31.02 Argentina : 12.68 39.00 0.60 25.53 27.28 8.17 16.84 Brazil : 14.70 51.00 0.53 29.39 32.60 19.54 14.09 Major importers 4/ : 3.46 20.15 50.76 53.18 68.48 0.41 5.49 China : 2.10 18.00 24.00 29.78 39.63 0.38 4.10 EU-25 : 0.74 0.79 14.96 14.29 15.69 0.01 0.79 Japan : 0.30 0.17 4.35 3.18 4.55 0.00 0.26 Mexico : 0.04 0.13 3.70 3.79 3.83 0.00 0.04 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 45.08 219.71 65.68 182.44 213.11 66.62 50.73 August : 45.98 216.78 66.14 182.97 213.76 66.88 48.27 United States : July : 7.89 78.65 0.08 45.99 50.03 30.89 5.71 August : 8.17 75.96 0.08 45.45 49.51 29.80 4.90 Total foreign : July : 37.19 141.05 65.60 136.45 163.09 35.73 45.02 August : 37.82 140.82 66.06 137.52 164.25 37.08 43.37 Major exporters 3/ : July : 31.02 105.80 1.03 59.83 65.55 33.40 38.90 August : 31.02 105.80 1.03 60.47 66.19 34.71 36.95 Argentina Jul : 16.84 39.00 0.50 26.63 28.58 8.40 19.35 Aug : 16.84 39.00 0.50 27.27 29.22 8.70 18.41 Brazil Jul : 14.09 62.00 0.52 31.60 35.15 22.00 19.46 Aug : 14.09 62.00 0.52 31.60 35.15 23.01 18.45 Major importers 4/ : July : 5.11 19.29 54.20 56.87 72.98 0.37 5.25 August : 5.49 19.21 54.48 57.39 73.47 0.37 5.34 China Jul : 3.70 17.00 27.00 33.12 43.67 0.33 3.70 Aug : 4.10 17.00 27.00 33.35 43.87 0.33 3.90 EU-25 Jul : 0.79 0.85 15.20 14.50 15.94 0.01 0.89 Aug : 0.79 0.77 15.20 14.55 15.96 0.01 0.79 Japan Jul : 0.28 0.23 4.50 3.30 4.69 0.00 0.32 Aug : 0.26 0.23 4.50 3.30 4.69 0.00 0.30 Mexico Jul : 0.04 0.13 4.00 4.09 4.13 0.00 0.04 Aug : 0.04 0.13 3.90 3.99 4.03 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-425-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 4.44 128.76 44.68 128.82 45.37 3.69 United States : 0.20 32.95 0.26 28.53 4.69 0.19 Total foreign : 4.24 95.81 44.43 100.29 40.68 3.50 Major exporters 3/ : 1.16 46.96 0.27 10.02 37.02 1.35 Argentina : 0.35 19.76 0.00 0.62 18.95 0.54 Brazil : 0.77 22.78 0.27 8.28 14.76 0.78 India : 0.05 4.42 0.00 1.12 3.31 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 33.04 26.82 58.83 1.10 1.13 EU-25 : 0.87 11.10 21.91 32.64 0.39 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.02 19.54 0.67 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.69 136.15 45.55 135.58 45.79 4.01 United States : 0.19 36.64 0.15 30.12 6.62 0.24 Total foreign : 3.50 99.51 45.40 105.47 39.17 3.77 Major exporters 3/ : 1.35 46.76 0.20 10.97 35.86 1.48 Argentina : 0.54 20.14 0.00 0.76 18.97 0.95 Brazil : 0.78 22.85 0.20 8.40 14.95 0.48 India : 0.04 3.77 0.00 1.80 1.95 0.05 Major importers 4/ : 1.13 36.57 27.57 62.96 1.19 1.12 EU-25 : 0.85 11.23 22.75 33.61 0.36 0.86 China : 0.00 23.56 0.07 22.85 0.78 0.00 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 3.62 143.81 46.73 143.10 47.30 3.76 August : 4.01 143.86 47.00 143.36 47.50 4.02 United States : July : 0.23 36.50 0.15 30.53 6.12 0.23 August : 0.24 36.04 0.15 30.53 5.67 0.23 Total foreign : July : 3.39 107.31 46.58 112.58 41.18 3.53 August : 3.77 107.83 46.85 112.83 41.83 3.79 Major exporters 3/ : July : 1.21 50.06 0.10 12.71 37.33 1.33 August : 1.48 50.52 0.10 12.61 38.03 1.47 Argentina Jul : 0.68 21.05 0.00 1.00 20.00 0.73 Aug : 0.95 21.51 0.00 0.90 20.67 0.89 Brazil Jul : 0.48 24.60 0.10 9.40 15.23 0.55 Aug : 0.48 24.60 0.10 9.40 15.26 0.53 India Jul : 0.05 4.41 0.00 2.31 2.10 0.05 Aug : 0.05 4.41 0.00 2.31 2.10 0.05 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.12 39.51 28.33 66.60 1.24 1.12 August : 1.12 39.75 28.37 66.94 1.19 1.12 EU-25 Jul : 0.86 11.40 23.30 34.29 0.39 0.87 Aug : 0.86 11.44 23.30 34.33 0.39 0.87 China Jul : 0.00 26.37 0.05 25.62 0.80 0.00 Aug : 0.00 26.56 0.10 25.91 0.75 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-425-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 1.97 29.88 8.35 29.66 8.98 1.55 United States : 0.68 7.75 0.14 7.65 0.43 0.49 Total foreign : 1.30 22.13 8.21 22.01 8.56 1.07 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 12.68 0.08 5.10 7.70 0.34 Argentina : 0.05 4.51 0.00 0.11 4.41 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.64 0.03 2.95 2.72 0.10 EU-25 : 0.23 2.54 0.04 2.03 0.57 0.21 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.57 3.54 9.02 0.03 0.44 China : 0.25 4.54 2.73 7.17 0.02 0.33 India : 0.13 1.02 0.76 1.78 0.02 0.11 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.55 31.77 9.05 31.29 9.36 1.73 United States : 0.49 8.73 0.01 7.85 0.66 0.72 Total foreign : 1.07 23.05 9.04 23.44 8.70 1.01 Major exporters 3/ : 0.34 12.89 0.14 5.12 7.90 0.35 Argentina : 0.04 4.70 0.00 0.12 4.55 0.07 Brazil : 0.10 5.63 0.05 3.01 2.66 0.10 EU-25 : 0.21 2.57 0.09 1.99 0.68 0.19 Major importers 4/ : 0.44 6.19 3.62 9.83 0.03 0.40 China : 0.33 5.32 1.96 7.36 0.02 0.22 India : 0.11 0.87 1.60 2.40 0.01 0.17 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 1.80 33.47 9.86 33.28 10.06 1.80 August : 1.73 33.50 9.84 33.28 10.08 1.70 United States : July : 0.77 8.65 0.05 8.01 0.70 0.76 August : 0.72 8.55 0.03 8.01 0.61 0.68 Total foreign : July : 1.04 24.82 9.81 25.27 9.36 1.04 August : 1.01 24.95 9.81 25.28 9.47 1.02 Major exporters 3/ : July : 0.35 13.53 0.07 5.18 8.43 0.33 August : 0.35 13.66 0.07 5.20 8.55 0.33 Argentina Jul : 0.07 4.89 0.00 0.14 4.77 0.05 Aug : 0.07 5.01 0.00 0.14 4.88 0.05 Brazil Jul : 0.10 6.04 0.03 3.10 2.97 0.10 Aug : 0.10 6.04 0.03 3.10 2.97 0.10 EU-25 Jul : 0.19 2.59 0.04 1.94 0.70 0.18 Aug : 0.19 2.61 0.04 1.96 0.70 0.18 Major importers 4/ : July : 0.42 7.02 4.31 11.27 0.02 0.45 August : 0.40 7.04 4.33 11.31 0.02 0.43 China Jul : 0.24 5.97 2.60 8.55 0.01 0.25 Aug : 0.22 5.99 2.60 8.57 0.01 0.23 India Jul : 0.17 1.02 1.65 2.64 0.01 0.19 Aug : 0.17 1.02 1.65 2.64 0.01 0.19 Pakistan Jul : 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.08 0.00 0.01 Aug : 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-425-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2004 : III : 6360 5047 11493 8839 1390 10365 21858 1870 42.2 IV : 6097 5435 11623 8537 1389 10053 21676 1906 42.0 Annual : 24548 20509 45419 34063 5454 40022 85441 7443 170.8 : 2005 : I : 5727 5136 10951 8571 1320 10013 20964 1855 43.2 II : 6192 5022 11299 8941 1393 10471 21770 1857 45.6 III*: 6875 5075 12039 9175 1375 10690 22729 1875 43.5 IV*: 6400 5575 12074 8850 1400 10380 22454 1910 43.6 Annual : Jul Proj : 25197 20836 46394 35471 5470 41458 87852 7495 175.2 Aug Proj : 25194 20808 46363 35536 5488 41554 87917 7497 176.0 : 2006 : I*: 5950 5200 11244 8825 1310 10260 21504 1865 44.8 II*: 6775 5075 11954 9125 1390 10645 22599 1900 46.5 Annual : Jul Proj : 25975 21125 47496 36525 5535 42585 90081 7635 179.3 Aug Proj : 25975 21125 47496 36525 5535 42585 90081 7635 180.0 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2004 : III : 83.58 56.58 75.7 73.1 66.2 15.50 IV : 85.09 54.35 68.3 77.1 68.0 16.07 Annual : 84.75 52.51 74.1 69.7 82.2 16.05 : 2005 : I : 89.09 51.92 71.9 65.9 64.5 15.67 II : 87.96 52.09 72.6 67.7 55.9 14.83 III*: 80-82 47-49 72-74 72-74 59-61 14.65-14.95 IV*: 81-87 40-42 71-75 76-80 64-68 14.55-15.15 Annual : Jul Proj : 85-87 47-49 72-74 70-72 61-63 14.85-15.15 Aug Proj : 85-86 48-49 72-73 70-72 61-62 14.95-15.15 : 2006 : I*: 74-80 44-48 70-76 60-66 62-68 13.55-14.45 II*: 76-82 46-50 71-77 63-69 60-64 12.30-13.30 Annual : Jul Proj : 76-82 43-47 71-77 66-71 63-68 12.90-13.90 Aug Proj : 76-82 43-47 71-77 66-71 63-68 12.85-13.85 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-425-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2004 : 518 24650 3679 28847 460 637 27750 66.1 2005 Proj. Jul : 637 25299 3701 29637 615 575 28447 67.1 Aug : 637 25296 3741 29674 615 575 28484 67.2 2006 Proj. Jul : 575 26077 3740 30392 640 575 29177 68.2 Aug : 575 26077 3740 30392 640 575 29177 68.2 : PORK : 2004 : 532 20529 1099 22160 2181 543 19437 51.3 2005 Proj. Jul : 543 20856 980 22379 2645 545 19189 50.2 Aug : 543 20828 980 22351 2670 545 19136 50.0 2006 Proj. Jul : 545 21145 960 22650 2745 545 19360 50.1 Aug : 545 21145 960 22650 2745 545 19360 50.1 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2004 : 1059 45555 4959 51573 2650 1187 47735 119.0 2005 Proj. Jul : 1187 46529 4858 52574 3269 1133 48172 118.8 Aug : 1187 46498 4898 52583 3294 1133 48156 118.8 2006 Proj. Jul : 1133 47631 4875 53639 3393 1133 49113 120.0 Aug : 1133 47631 4875 53639 3393 1133 49113 120.0 : BROILERS : 2004 : 608 33699 27 34334 4784 713 28837 84.3 2005 Proj. Jul : 713 35091 36 35840 5039 650 30151 87.2 Aug : 713 35156 37 35906 5429 650 29827 86.3 2006 Proj. Jul : 650 36134 36 36820 5175 675 30970 88.8 Aug : 650 36134 36 36820 5475 675 30670 87.9 : TURKEYS : 2004 : 354 5383 5 5741 442 288 5010 17.0 2005 Proj. Jul : 288 5398 8 5694 536 250 4908 16.5 Aug : 288 5417 8 5713 536 250 4927 16.6 2006 Proj. Jul : 250 5462 4 5716 535 300 4881 16.3 Aug : 250 5462 4 5716 550 300 4866 16.2 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2004 : 966 39585 33 40584 5440 1005 34139 102.3 2005 Proj. Jul : 1004 41006 48 42058 5711 903 35444 105.1 Aug : 1005 41101 48 42154 6084 903 35167 104.3 2006 Proj. Jul : 903 42121 44 43068 5850 979 36239 106.4 Aug : 903 42121 44 43068 6165 979 35924 105.4 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2004 : 2025 85140 4992 92157 8090 2192 81875 221.3 2005 Proj. Jul : 2191 87535 4906 94633 8980 2036 83617 223.9 Aug : 2192 87599 4946 94737 9378 2036 83324 223.0 2006 Proj. Jul : 2036 89752 4919 96707 9243 2112 85352 226.3 Aug : 2036 89752 4919 96707 9558 2112 85037 225.4 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-425-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.3 13.7 14.5 14.5 13.5 14.0 Production : 7297.0 7443.0 7495.2 7497.2 7635.0 7635.0 Imports : 13.3 12.7 13.0 9.8 12.8 10.0 Total supply : 7320.6 7469.4 7522.7 7521.5 7661.3 7659.0 : Use : Exports : 146.2 167.5 196.8 196.8 200.0 200.0 Hatching use : 959.4 987.2 1021.6 1018.3 1050.0 1050.0 Ending stocks : 13.7 14.5 13.5 14.0 13.5 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6201.3 6300.2 6290.8 6292.4 6397.8 6395.0 Per capita (number) : 255.7 257.2 254.3 254.3 256.2 256.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected Commodity : : :-----------------:----------------- : 2003 : 2004 : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== : Billion pounds Milk : Production : 170.4 170.8 175.2 176.0 179.3 180.0 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 : Fat Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 9.9 8.3 7.2 7.2 8.0 8.0 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 174.1 174.9 178.2 178.9 Imports : 5.0 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 Total cml. supply : 184.2 183.3 186.3 187.0 191.1 191.8 : Fat Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.3 7.2 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.0 CCC net removals 1/ : 1.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Commercial use 2/ : 174.7 176.2 178.3 178.9 183.1 183.8 : Skim-solids Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.4 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 174.1 174.9 178.2 178.9 Imports : 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 Total cml. supply : 182.8 183.0 187.3 187.8 191.4 192.1 : Skim-solids Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.5 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.2 CCC net removals 1/ : 8.1 1.3 -1.0 -0.7 1.0 1.2 Commercial use 2/ : 166.2 173.5 179.8 180.1 182.2 182.7 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 1/: Butter : 29 -7 0 0 0 0 Cheese : 41 6 0 0 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 664 105 -85 -60 80 100 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 2/ Includes commercial exports. WASDE-425-32 U.S. Dairy Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== : Dollars per pound : Product Prices 1/ : Cheese : 1.3031 1.6431 1.470- 1.470- 1.300- 1.280- : 1.500 1.490 1.400 1.380 : Butter : 1.1194 1.8239 1.475- 1.505- 1.280- 1.280- : 1.535 1.545 1.410 1.410 : Nonfat dry milk : 0.8090 0.8405 0.900- 0.910- 0.860- 0.860- : 0.930 0.930 0.930 0.930 : Dry whey : 0.1667 0.2319 0.240- 0.250- 0.175- 0.180- : 0.260 0.270 0.205 0.210 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices 2/ : Class III : 11.42 15.39 13.70- 13.75- 11.60- 11.45- : 14.00 13.95 12.60 12.45 : Class IV : 10.00 13.20 12.30- 12.50- 11.10- 11.10- : 12.70 12.80 12.20 12.20 : All milk 3/ : 12.52 16.05 14.85- 14.95- 12.90- 12.85- : 15.15 15.15 13.90 13.85 : =============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found at http://www.ams.usda.gov/dyfmos/mib/fedordprc_dscrp.htm. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-425-33 Note: Tables on pages 33-35 present a 24-year record of the differences between the August projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the August projection and the final estimate have averaged 11.7 million tons (2.2%) ranging from -32.1 to 19.5 million tons. The August projection has been below the estimate 14 times and above 10 times. Reliability of August Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.2 11.7 -32.1 19.5 14 10 U.S. : 1.9 1.2 -3.4 4.2 9 15 Foreign : 2.3 11.0 -31.1 17.8 14 10 Exports : World : 4.3 4.9 -12.4 10.2 16 8 U.S. : 8.9 2.9 -10.0 7.8 10 13 Foreign : 5.4 4.5 -11.3 7.2 15 9 Domestic use : World : 1.6 8.7 -23.4 15.4 13 11 U.S. : 6.1 1.9 -3.7 3.6 11 13 Foreign : 1.6 7.9 -21.1 14.5 14 10 Ending stocks : World : 8.3 10.8 -28.1 23.7 17 7 U.S. : 13.6 3.2 -11.1 12.6 13 11 Foreign : 8.9 9.2 -24.3 11.2 17 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 2.0 17.0 -51.0 32.7 17 7 U.S. : 4.8 10.6 -22.1 31.4 17 7 Foreign : 2.0 11.7 -28.8 20.0 14 10 Exports : World : 5.4 5.7 -10.9 17.4 15 9 U.S. : 14.5 7.6 -19.7 14.9 10 14 Foreign : 13.9 7.2 -18.1 14.2 14 10 Domestic use : World : 1.5 12.2 -29.4 24.3 12 12 U.S. : 3.7 6.8 -15.9 17.0 17 7 Foreign : 1.5 9.6 -20.2 23.3 14 10 Ending stocks : World : 14.0 18.9 -53.5 30.5 18 6 U.S. : 25.6 12.5 -43.5 22.1 12 12 Foreign : 13.8 11.3 -28.7 17.2 19 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.9 6.4 -24.4 4.1 16 8 U.S. : 5.0 0.3 -0.6 0.5 15 9 Foreign : 1.9 6.4 -24.7 4.2 17 7 Exports : World : 8.2 1.6 -6.8 0.9 15 9 U.S. : 8.6 0.2 -1.0 0.9 14 8 Foreign : 9.2 1.5 -6.7 0.8 15 9 Domestic use : World : 1.4 4.6 -23.5 3.5 19 5 U.S. : 6.9 0.2 -0.4 0.5 12 12 Foreign : 1.4 4.7 -24.0 3.7 18 6 Ending stocks : World : 10.8 4.5 -14.5 7.9 19 5 U.S. : 22.6 0.2 -0.4 1.0 13 10 Foreign : 11.4 4.5 -15.5 7.5 19 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-425-34 Reliability of August Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.4 4.8 -13.4 17.4 14 10 U.S. : 5.4 3.3 -7.2 11.1 11 13 Foreign : 6.7 4.9 -10.6 15.7 13 11 Exports : World : 6.5 2.5 -9.1 9.1 15 9 U.S. : 10.4 2.3 -6.1 5.5 13 11 Foreign : 18.9 2.4 -9.4 6.0 10 14 Domestic use : World : 3.4 4.6 -8.8 13.2 15 9 U.S. : 4.3 1.7 -3.9 4.1 16 8 Foreign : 4.3 4.0 -7.4 9.1 16 8 Ending stocks : World : 12.7 2.7 -14.7 5.5 12 12 U.S. : 39.5 2.6 -2.8 6.9 7 17 Foreign : 18.1 3.0 -14.3 7.8 15 9 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.6 3.1 -13.2 10.5 13 11 U.S. : 6.3 1.0 -3.1 3.9 14 9 Foreign : 4.0 2.9 -10.7 10.2 12 11 Exports : World : 5.0 1.3 -3.6 2.3 11 13 U.S. : 16.1 1.0 -2.1 2.0 14 10 Foreign : 6.0 1.1 -3.3 1.9 11 13 Mill use : World : 2.6 2.2 -7.5 3.3 10 14 U.S. : 6.6 0.5 -1.2 1.3 13 9 Foreign : 2.7 2.1 -7.1 4.0 11 13 Ending stocks : World : 13.2 4.7 -12.5 14.2 16 8 U.S. : 31.8 1.3 -2.4 3.1 9 15 Foreign : 13.4 4.2 -13.0 12.3 18 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2004/05 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 24 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-425-35 Reliability of United States August Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 5.2 389 -889 1079 16 8 Exports : 15.4 276 -750 546 9 15 Domestic use : 4.3 267 -553 510 17 7 Ending stocks : 29.9 452 -1674 740 12 12 : SORGHUM : Production : 6.6 40 -82 108 12 12 Exports : 16.2 38 -115 97 11 13 Domestic use : 10.3 42 -114 81 11 13 Ending stocks : 40.0 51 -201 133 9 15 : BARLEY : Production : 4.6 18 -63 67 9 15 Exports : 29.8 17 -82 38 11 11 Domestic use : 8.2 28 -47 82 10 13 Ending stocks : 15.6 26 -61 94 11 13 : OATS : Production : 7.6 17 -26 57 5 19 Exports : 67.1 2 -5 8 7 9 Domestic use : 4.5 15 -39 35 8 16 Ending stocks : 15.0 18 -40 37 10 14 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.2 1286 -2858 3592 16 8 Exports : 13.6 874 -2050 1800 11 13 Domestic use : 3.2 751 -1550 1909 16 8 Ending stocks : 30.6 71 -204 428 8 13 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.9 573 -1583 1238 13 11 Exports : 23.9 364 -1350 1219 10 13 Domestic use : 2.7 345 -1085 708 17 7 Ending stocks : 32.4 484 -941 1078 9 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 4.1 1025 -802 2536 15 7 Pork : 2.3 390 -1315 1242 12 10 Broilers : 2.1 507 -1337 1338 14 8 Turkeys : 2.3 99 -444 235 15 7 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 87 -111 188 15 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.4 2.1 -7.0 6.8 10 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 33 and 34 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2004/05 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 24 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2004 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ------------ End of file --------------