WASDE-378 September 14, 2001 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are up 16 million bushels from last month due to higher production and reduced food use. Forecast production is 6 million bushels above last month because of higher spring wheat yields. Projected food use is down 10 million bushels from last month and only slightly above last year because of an expected improvement in milling yields from the unusually low levels in 2000/01. With better milling yields, less grain is needed to obtain the same amount of flour. The projected price range is reduced 20 cents on the high end to $2.70 to $3.10 per bushel because of lower-than-expected prices during the first quarter of the marketing year. Global 2001/02 wheat supply, use, and ending stocks are up from last month, led by larger crops in Russia, Ukraine, Syria, India, Brazil, and several other countries. The larger production will lead to expanding exports by a number of these countries. Also, Brazil's larger crop is expected to reduce its import needs. However, global imports are up from last month because of a smaller crop in Turkey, increased purchases of wheat for feeding by South Korea, and expanding consumption in Nigeria. Smaller crops in Australia and Canada will reduce exports and ending stocks, while the smaller EU crop reduces expected domestic use and ending stocks. COARSE GRAINS: Smaller supplies and stable use are expected to drop U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of corn 98 million bushels below last month's projection. Forecast production is down 28 million bushels from last month due to lower yields. In addition, forecast carryin stocks are down 65 million bushels because of increased 2000/01 exports. Total use for 2001/02 unchanged from last month as an increase in projected domestic use offsets slightly lower exports. The projected price range for corn is up 5 cents on each end to $1.95 to $2.35 per bushel. Global 2001/02 coarse grain production is projected up, largely because of increases in barley crops in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU; rye production in Russia and the EU; and sorghum in Australia. Foreign corn production, however, is down from last month due to reductions for Canada, Russia, and Ukraine. A 3-million-ton increase from last month in projected exports by China only results in a small decline in U.S. 2001/02 export prospects. With Canada's corn and barley crops down sharply, forecast corn imports by Canada are up 1.2 million tons from last month while exports are down 700,000 tons. In addition, corn imports are projected higher for a number of other countries, more than offsetting smaller expected imports by South Korea because of increased purchases of wheat for feeding. RICE: U.S. 2001/02 total rice supplies are projected at a record 245.5 million cwt, up 6 percent from last month and 7 percent above 2000/01. Rice production in 2001/02 is projected at a record 206.3 million cwt, 4 percent above last month and 8 percent above 2000/01. U.S. planted and harvested area estimates are increased. Harvested area is estimated at 3.290 million acres, 2 percent above last month and 8 percent above 2000/01. U.S. average yield for 2001/02 is estimated at 6,272 pounds per acre, up 2 percent from last month, but down slightly from last year's record. Long-grain production is estimated at a record 159.7 million cwt, 4 percent above last month and up 24 percent from 2000/01. Combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at 46.7 million cwt, up 3 percent from last month but 25 percent below 2000/01. The August 31 Rice Stocks report estimated August 1 rice stocks at 28.4 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), up 22 percent from last month's projection and 3.5 percent above 2000/01. Rough rice stocks are placed at 22 million cwt and milled rice stocks at 4.4 million cwt. Domestic and residual use for 2001/02 is lowered 2.5 percent, based in part on revised 2000/01 domestic and residual use. U.S. exports in 2001/02 are projected at 86 million cwt, up 2 percent from last month and 2000/01. Ending stocks are projected at 38.5 million cwt, up 58 percent from last month, and 38 percent above 2000/01. Stocks would be the largest since 1992/93. The season-average price projection is lowered $1.10 per cwt on each end to $3.75 to $4.25 per cwt. Global 2001/02 rice production and consumption are lowered from last month while trade and ending stocks are little changed. The decrease in global rice production is due primarily to smaller crops projected for China and Egypt, partially offset by increases for the United States, India, and Australia. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 8.0 million metric tons, down 1.2 million tons from last month and up only 0.4 million tons from last year as beginning stocks and production are revised down. Soybean production is forecast at a record 2,834 million bushels, off 33 million bushels from last month based on lower yield prospects, particularly in the upper Midwest where crop conditions have been below normal. Other oilseed crops are little changed, with increases for peanuts partially offset by a small decline in cottonseed. Soybean export prospects are reduced 5 million bushels this month due to reduced supply availabilities. Soybean crush is increased 5 million bushels based on stronger domestic soybean meal use prospects. Soybean oil ending stocks for 2001/02 are raised sharply from last month, due mostly to larger beginning stocks. Census revisions added about 200 million pounds to 2000/01 inventories. Reductions in U.S. soybean oil exports and domestic consumption for 2000/01 also contributed to the larger stocks for 2000/01. Domestic soybean oil use is cut 100 million pounds for both 2000/01 and 2001/02. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2001/02 are projected at $4.40 to $5.40 per bushel, up 5 cents from last month, and compare to a preliminary $4.55 per bushel for 2000/01. Prices are similar to 1985/86 when ending stocks in the three principal exporting countries were near the 21 million metric tons indicated for 2000/01, although current U.S. stocks are less than half of the record U.S. carryover at the end of 1985/86. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $165 to $185 per short ton, up $10 on the low end and $5 on the high end compared with last month. Soybean oil prices are projected lower this month at 15.50 to 18.50 cents, but still are above last year's average of 14.15 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 2001/02 is projected at a record 316.1 million metric tons, down 2.2 million tons from last month, but up 6.4 million tons from 2000/01. U.S. oilseed production is forecast at 88.2 million tons, off 0.9 million tons from last month. Foreign production is off 1.3 million tons to a record 227.9 million tons this month. Most of the drop is due to a combined 1-million-ton reduction in sunflowerseed production for Russia and Ukraine, where crop conditions have been extremely poor. Wet planting conditions gave way to extremely hot, dry conditions leading up to harvest. Other significant changes include a 0.5-million-ton reduction in Canada's soybean crop and a 0.2-million-ton reduction in their canola crop. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2001/02 is decreased 60,000 short tons, raw value, compared with last month, due to lower forecast sugarcane area for harvest in Louisiana. Imports of sugar from sugar syrups under USHTS 1702904000 are decreased 95,000 tons due to a U.S. Appeals Court ruling that is expected to reclassify the product. The 2001/02 TRQ has not been announced. For 2000/01, beet sugar production is increased 50,000 tons, based on higher-than-anticipated summer output from sugarbeet molasses and improved prospects for September production from 2001-crop sugarbeets. Domestic food and beverage use is lowered 50,000 tons due to continued weakness in deliveries. The ratio of season-ending stocks to use is 19.8 percent, compared with 18.7 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Projected total meat production is reduced for 2001, but raised for 2002. Beef production in 2001 is forecast higher this month, but is offset by lower forecast pork and turkey production. The August Cattle on Feed report showed continued strong feedlot placements resulting in more beef production during the last part of this year and into next year. For 2002, beef production is projected higher in the first quarter as recent lightweight placements are marketed. Forecast pork production in 2001 is reduced because of the slower-than-expected pace of hog slaughter and lighter hog weights this quarter. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on September 28, will provide further information on producer intentions for the sector. Poultry meat production for 2001 is fractionally lower on reduced turkey output. Cattle prices in 2001 and 2002 are forecast lower as larger supplies of cattle continue to pressure prices. Hog prices are raised slightly for 2001 and 2002. Poultry prices are little changed from last month. U.S. beef exports for 2001 and 2002 are forecast lower than last month due to continued expected weakness in shipments to major Asian markets. Broiler meat exports in 2001 and 2002 are raised as current exports, especially to Russia, outpace earlier expectations. Demand for U.S. broilers is expected to remain strong next year. Forecast milk production in 2001/02 is slightly lower than last month as slower growth in milk per cow more than offsets the slower rate of decline in cow numbers. Forecasts for 2000/01 and 2001/02 Class III and Class IV prices are raised from last month as dairy product prices remain strong. The 2001/02 all milk price forecast is raised to $13.70 to $14.50 per cwt. COTTON: Projected U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks are raised this month due to larger beginning stocks and lower domestic mill use. Forecast cotton production is down marginally as lower production in the Delta is about offset by an increase in California. Domestic mill use is reduced 200,000 bales, based on diminished expectations of recovery in retail demand. With the export estimate unchanged at 9.0 million bales, ending stocks are raised 7.4 percent from August to 8.7 million bales. Ending stocks for 2000/01 are raised to 6.0 million bales, nearly 500,000 bales above last month's USDA forecast. The change is based on a stocks survey by the Bureau of the Census. World beginning stocks of cotton for 2001/02 are raised nearly 900,000 bales this month, primarily due to the increase for the United States. Beginning stocks in Indonesia, Turkey, and Pakistan are also higher and Tanzania is lower. Projected world production is raised slightly, as increases in China, Mali, and Syria are nearly offset by decreases in Australia, Brazil, and Sudan. World consumption is about unchanged, as lower projections for China and the United States are mostly offset by increases for Uzbekistan and Pakistan. Slight reductions in world imports and exports also are offsetting. World ending stocks are raised 1.2 million bales to 42.7 million bales. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: JAMES R. MOSELEY ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on October 12, 2001. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report will be released on the following dates in 2001: Oct. 12, Nov. 9, and Dec. 11. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. For information on e-mail subscriptions or other questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. 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WASDE-378-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 1,872.00 2,394.81 281.45 1,874.14 520.67 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,831.72 2,352.39 263.35 1,863.72 488.67 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 1,821.39 2,310.43 264.87 1,891.94 418.49 September : 1,825.71 2,314.38 267.92 1,895.30 419.08 Wheat : 1999/00 : 586.41 761.07 135.16 593.01 168.06 2000/01 (Est.) : 579.05 747.12 123.74 588.64 158.47 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 567.63 725.34 127.54 594.47 130.86 September : 571.07 729.54 128.54 595.06 134.48 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 877.18 1,092.30 122.23 882.51 209.79 2000/01 (Est.) : 857.06 1,066.85 116.28 874.24 192.61 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 858.05 1,051.80 114.25 891.61 160.20 September : 860.20 1,052.81 115.95 895.44 157.38 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 408.40 541.44 24.06 398.61 142.82 2000/01 (Est.) : 395.60 538.43 23.33 400.84 137.59 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 395.71 533.29 23.09 405.86 127.44 September : 394.44 532.03 23.42 404.80 127.23 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 332.24 415.71 88.85 251.29 75.57 2000/01 (Est.) : 340.94 422.02 88.31 255.92 77.80 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 317.40 402.34 89.06 254.28 58.99 September : 316.85 400.08 88.24 254.54 57.31 Wheat : 1999/00 : 62.57 90.89 29.65 35.38 25.85 2000/01 (Est.) : 60.51 88.81 28.89 36.15 23.76 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 54.01 80.22 28.58 34.89 16.76 September : 54.19 80.40 28.58 34.62 17.21 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 263.17 317.31 56.40 212.06 48.86 2000/01 (Est.) : 274.45 326.04 56.79 216.11 53.14 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 257.14 314.79 57.84 215.49 41.47 September : 256.16 311.95 56.95 216.11 38.89 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 6.50 7.52 2.80 3.85 0.87 2000/01 (Est.) : 5.98 7.18 2.63 3.66 0.89 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 6.25 7.32 2.65 3.91 0.77 September : 6.51 7.74 2.71 3.81 1.21 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-378-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 1,539.75 1,979.10 192.59 1,622.85 445.10 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,490.78 1,930.37 175.04 1,607.80 410.88 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 1,503.99 1,908.09 175.81 1,637.65 359.50 September : 1,508.86 1,914.30 179.68 1,640.76 361.77 Wheat : 1999/00 : 523.84 670.19 105.51 557.63 142.21 2000/01 (Est.) : 518.54 658.31 94.85 552.49 134.71 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 513.62 645.11 98.97 559.58 114.11 September : 516.88 649.14 99.97 560.44 117.27 Coarse grains 5/ : 1999/00 : 614.01 774.99 65.83 670.46 160.93 2000/01 (Est.) : 582.60 740.81 59.49 658.13 139.47 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 600.91 737.01 56.41 676.12 118.73 September : 604.04 740.87 59.00 679.33 118.49 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 401.90 533.92 21.25 394.77 141.96 2000/01 (Est.) : 389.63 531.25 20.70 397.18 136.70 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 389.46 525.97 20.44 401.95 126.67 September : 387.93 524.29 20.71 400.99 126.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1999/00 : 87.36 132.49 27.31 91.91 41.48 2000/01 (Est.) : 88.33 129.81 26.28 91.83 38.87 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 95.95 133.97 28.24 92.60 41.53 September : 96.22 135.09 27.96 92.55 42.73 : United States 1999/00 : 16.97 21.00 6.75 10.24 3.92 2000/01 (Est.) : 17.19 21.13 6.70 8.87 6.03 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 20.00 25.56 9.00 8.50 8.10 September : 19.99 26.04 9.00 8.30 8.70 : Foreign 3/ 1999/00 : 70.39 111.49 20.56 81.67 37.56 2000/01 (Est.) : 71.14 108.69 19.58 82.96 32.84 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 75.95 108.41 19.24 84.10 33.43 September : 76.23 109.05 18.96 84.25 34.03 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-378-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 303.20 335.02 64.49 247.45 34.03 2000/01 (Est.) : 309.71 343.74 70.09 252.58 33.02 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 318.27 352.13 69.21 260.88 32.24 September : 316.11 349.13 68.51 260.45 29.77 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 168.71 175.34 56.16 169.15 5.50 2000/01 (Est.) : 174.26 179.76 55.89 173.86 5.34 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 180.14 185.40 57.01 179.69 5.30 September : 180.06 185.40 57.06 179.80 5.28 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 85.84 93.21 32.82 83.73 8.07 2000/01 (Est.) : 88.34 96.41 34.54 87.95 7.69 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 90.54 98.16 35.25 90.78 6.89 September : 90.35 98.04 35.33 90.46 7.04 : : United States Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 82.31 93.85 27.34 47.90 8.98 2000/01 (Est.) : 85.24 94.95 28.10 48.87 7.58 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 89.07 97.23 27.97 49.90 9.26 September : 88.17 96.09 27.88 50.06 8.02 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 36.70 38.27 6.85 31.12 0.30 2000/01 (Est.) : 38.08 39.63 7.26 32.09 0.29 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 38.56 40.08 7.16 32.63 0.29 September : 38.62 40.15 7.16 32.70 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 9.37 11.90 1.13 9.55 1.21 2000/01 (Est.) : 9.47 12.32 1.06 9.74 1.52 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 9.71 12.75 1.57 10.00 1.19 September : 9.75 12.89 1.60 9.97 1.32 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 220.89 241.17 37.15 199.54 25.05 2000/01 (Est.) : 224.47 248.79 41.99 203.72 25.45 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 229.20 254.90 41.24 210.98 22.98 September : 227.94 253.04 40.64 210.39 21.75 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 132.01 137.07 49.31 138.03 5.20 2000/01 (Est.) : 136.18 140.12 48.64 141.77 5.05 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 141.58 145.32 49.85 147.06 5.01 September : 141.44 145.25 49.89 147.10 4.99 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 76.47 81.31 31.68 74.18 6.86 2000/01 (Est.) : 78.86 84.08 33.48 78.21 6.17 2001/02 (Proj.) : August : 80.83 85.41 33.69 80.79 5.70 September : 80.60 85.15 33.74 80.49 5.71 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-378-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.7 62.5 59.6 59.6 Harvested : 53.8 53.0 49.3 49.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.7 41.9 40.2 40.4 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 946 950 873 873 Production : 2,299 2,223 1,985 1,991 Imports : 95 90 90 90 Supply, total : 3,339 3,263 2,948 2,954 Food : 929 957 970 960 Seed : 92 80 87 87 Feed and residual : 280 292 225 225 Domestic, total : 1,300 1,328 1,282 1,272 Exports : 1,090 1,061 1,050 1,050 Use, total : 2,390 2,390 2,332 2,322 Ending stocks : 950 873 616 632 CCC inventory : 104 97 94 Free stocks : 846 776 538 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.48 2.62 2.70- 3.30 2.70- 3.10 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2000/01 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 458 218 133 91 50 950 Production : 844 498 471 301 110 2,223 Supply, total 3/ : 1,302 775 604 397 185 3,263 Domestic use : 491 335 293 119 90 1,328 Exports : 402 230 176 203 50 1,061 Use, total : 894 565 469 322 140 2,390 Ending stocks, total : 408 210 135 75 45 873 : 2001/02 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 408 210 135 75 45 873 Production : 796 480 386 243 86 1,991 Supply, total 3/ : 1,205 744 521 328 157 2,954 Domestic use : 498 324 262 96 92 1,272 Exports : 445 235 170 160 40 1,050 Use, total : 944 560 432 256 132 2,322 Ending stocks, total : September : 261 184 89 72 25 632 August : 256 172 94 64 29 616 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-378-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 96.5 99.1 95.5 95.5 Harvested : 86.2 88.0 84.7 84.7 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.12 3.04 3.02 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 51.3 48.8 54.8 53.1 Production : 262.9 274.2 256.9 256.0 Imports : 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.5 Supply, total : 316.9 325.7 314.5 311.6 Feed and residual : 156.9 160.3 157.3 157.9 Food, seed & industrial : 54.7 55.5 57.9 57.9 Domestic, total : 211.7 215.8 215.2 215.8 Exports : 56.4 56.8 57.8 56.9 Use, total : 268.1 272.6 273.0 272.8 Ending stocks, total : 48.8 53.1 41.4 38.9 CCC inventory : 0.4 0.2 0.2 Free stocks : 48.5 52.9 38.7 Outstanding loans : 10.2 6.6 5.3 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 77.4 79.5 76.0 76.0 Harvested : 70.5 72.7 69.2 69.2 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 133.8 137.1 133.9 133.5 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,787 1,718 2,003 1,938 Production : 9,431 9,968 9,266 9,238 Imports : 15 7 15 10 Supply, total : 11,232 11,693 11,284 11,186 Feed and residual : 5,664 5,850 5,775 5,800 Food, seed & industrial : 1,913 1,965 2,050 2,050 Domestic, total : 7,578 7,815 7,825 7,850 Exports : 1,937 1,940 2,000 1,975 Use, total : 9,515 9,755 9,825 9,825 Ending stocks, total : 1,718 1,938 1,459 1,361 CCC inventory : 14 8 5 Free stocks : 1,704 1,930 1,356 Outstanding loans : 392 253 200 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.82 1.85 1.90- 2.30 1.95- 2.35 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-378-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.3 9.2 10.0 10.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.5 7.7 8.8 8.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.7 60.9 62.0 61.2 Beginning stocks : 65 65 20 20 Production : 595 470 544 537 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 660 535 565 558 Feed and residual : 284 235 225 225 Food, seed & industrial : 55 35 45 45 Total domestic : 339 270 270 270 Exports : 256 245 250 240 Use, total : 595 515 520 510 Ending stocks, total : 65 20 45 48 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.57 1.88 1.85- 2.25 1.95- 2.35 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.2 5.8 5.1 5.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 5.2 4.5 4.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.2 61.1 58.8 57.9 Beginning stocks : 142 111 106 106 Production : 280 318 266 262 Imports : 28 29 30 30 Supply, total : 450 458 402 398 Feed and residual : 136 123 100 100 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 308 295 272 272 Exports : 30 58 30 30 Use, total : 338 352 302 302 Ending stocks, total : 111 106 100 96 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 2.11 2.05- 2.45 2.10- 2.50 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.6 64.2 62.0 62.0 Beginning stocks : 81 76 73 73 Production : 146 149 135 135 Imports : 99 106 100 95 Supply, total : 326 331 308 303 Feed and residual : 180 189 165 165 Food, seed & industrial : 68 68 68 68 Total domestic : 249 257 233 233 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 250 259 235 235 Ending stocks, total : 76 73 73 68 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.12 1.10 1.05- 1.45 1.15- 1.45 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-378-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.53 3.06 3.25 3.32 Harvested : 3.51 3.04 3.22 3.29 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,866 6,281 6,151 6,272 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 22.1 27.5 23.3 28.4 Production : 206.0 190.9 198.2 206.3 Imports : 10.1 10.5 10.8 10.8 Supply, total : 238.2 228.8 232.3 245.5 Domestic & residual 3/ : 121.9 116.4 124.0 121.1 Exports, total 4/ : 88.9 84.0 84.0 86.0 Rough : 25.2 24.0 24.0 25.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 63.6 60.0 60.0 61.0 Use, total : 210.7 200.4 208.0 207.1 Ending stocks : 27.5 28.4 24.3 38.5 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.6 69.0 69.5 69.5 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.93 5.56 4.85- 5.35 3.75- 4.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.72 2.19 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,587 5,882 Beginning stocks : 14.1 15.6 10.0 11.6 Production : 151.9 128.8 152.9 159.7 Supply, total 7/ : 173.5 153.7 172.4 180.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.1 77.1 89.1 86.2 Exports 8/ : 70.8 65.0 69.0 70.0 Use, total : 157.9 142.1 158.1 156.2 Ending stocks : 15.6 11.6 14.3 24.7 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.79 0.85 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,822 7,308 Beginning stocks : 6.8 10.4 11.9 15.6 Production : 54.2 62.1 45.3 46.7 Supply, total 7/ : 63.3 73.9 58.5 63.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.8 39.4 34.9 34.9 Exports 8/ : 18.1 19.0 15.0 16.0 Use, total : 52.9 58.4 49.9 50.9 Ending stocks : 10.4 15.6 8.6 12.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1999/00-1.2; 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-378-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.7 74.5 75.4 75.2 Harvested : 72.4 72.7 74.1 74.1 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 36.6 38.1 38.7 38.2 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 348 290 250 240 Production : 2,654 2,770 2,867 2,834 Imports : 4 3 4 4 Supply, total : 3,006 3,063 3,121 3,078 Crushings : 1,578 1,635 1,655 1,660 Exports : 973 1,000 995 990 Seed : 90 91 93 91 Residual : 75 97 _3/ 79 82 Use, total : 2,716 2,823 2,821 2,823 Ending stocks : 290 240 300 255 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.63 4.55 4.35- 5.35 4.40 - 5.40 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,520 1,995 2,445 2,695 Production : 17,825 18,370 18,675 18,730 Imports : 83 80 85 85 Supply, total : 19,427 20,445 21,205 21,510 Domestic : 16,056 16,350 16,800 16,700 Exports : 1,376 1,400 2,500 2,550 Use, total : 17,432 17,750 19,300 19,250 Ending stocks : 1,995 2,695 1,905 2,260 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 15.60 14.15 16.50- 15.50- : 19.50 18.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 330 293 275 275 Production : 37,591 39,287 39,650 39,700 Imports : 49 45 50 50 Supply, total : 37,970 39,625 39,975 40,025 Domestic : 30,346 31,600 32,100 32,150 Exports : 7,331 7,750 7,600 7,600 Use, total : 37,678 39,350 39,700 39,750 Ending stocks : 293 275 275 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.70 173.50 155.00- 165.00- : 180.00 185.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through June, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. WASDE-378-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :====================== : : Estimate : August September ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,639 2,219 1,965 2,065 Production 2/3/ : 9,042 8,672 8,405 8,345 Beet sugar : 4,976 4,600 4,150 4,150 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,065 4,072 4,255 4,195 Imports 2/ : 1,636 1,610 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 1,124 1,245 NA NA Other 6/ : 512 365 390 295 Total supply : 12,317 12,500 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 124 125 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,111 10,260 10,440 10,440 Domestic food use : 9,993 10,125 10,320 10,320 Other 8/ : 118 135 120 120 Miscellaneous 9/ : (137) 50 50 50 Use, total : 10,098 10,435 10,615 10,615 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,065 NA NA Private : 1,922 1,325 NA NA CCC 10/ : 297 740 690 690 : Stocks to use ratio : 22.0 19.8 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2001/02 are based on analyses by the September Crop Production and Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2000/01 (projected 2001/02): FL 2,055 (2,010); HI 240 (270); LA 1,570 (1,760); TX 207 (150); PR 0 (5). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2000/01 available TRQs assume shortfall of 65,000 tons. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Includes residual statistical discrepancies and expected Commodity Credit Corporation sales to ethanol producers. 10/ Includes only sugar owned by CCC (net of expected sales to ethanol producers), as of September 10, 2001. Season-ending CCC stocks will be a function of market and program developments. WASDE-378-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.87 15.52 16.19 16.19 Harvested : 13.42 13.05 14.34 14.14 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 607 632 670 679 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.94 3.92 5.55 6.03 Production : 16.97 17.19 20.00 19.99 Imports : 0.10 0.02 0.01 0.01 Supply, total : 21.00 21.13 25.56 26.04 Domestic use : 10.24 8.87 8.50 8.30 Exports : 6.75 6.70 9.00 9.00 Use, total : 16.99 15.57 17.50 17.30 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.09 -0.48 -0.04 0.04 Ending stocks : 3.92 6.03 8.10 8.70 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 45.0 50.4 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton, average for August-July. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2001/02 is 51.0 percent. WASDE-378-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 174.66 586.41 130.71 98.56 593.01 135.16 168.06 United States : 25.74 62.57 2.57 7.61 35.38 29.65 25.85 Total foreign : 148.92 523.84 128.14 90.95 557.63 105.51 142.21 Major exporters 4/ : 27.68 164.39 25.34 49.28 104.50 86.95 25.95 Argentina : 0.30 15.70 0.03 0.15 4.13 11.60 0.30 Australia : 1.87 25.01 0.05 2.48 5.22 17.84 3.87 Canada : 7.44 26.90 0.18 3.95 7.97 19.17 7.38 EU-15 : 18.07 96.78 25.09 42.71 87.19 38.34 14.41 Major importers 5/ : 86.82 174.49 34.63 17.06 210.01 4.88 81.04 Brazil : 0.78 2.40 7.56 0.20 9.48 0.00 1.25 China : 66.44 113.88 1.01 5.00 115.62 0.54 65.16 East. Europe : 7.69 28.24 1.39 10.50 29.49 3.53 4.30 N. Africa : 6.85 11.53 16.61 0.31 29.06 0.17 5.75 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.10 0.40 20.45 0.00 3.25 Selected other : India : 9.92 70.78 1.37 0.35 68.79 0.20 13.08 FSU-12 6/ : 5.65 64.87 9.49 17.31 65.63 9.08 5.30 Russia : 1.00 31.00 5.08 11.80 35.37 0.52 1.20 Kazakstan : 0.80 11.20 0.02 1.00 4.50 6.51 1.00 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 168.06 579.05 123.00 100.72 588.64 123.74 158.47 United States : 25.85 60.51 2.45 7.94 36.15 28.89 23.76 Total foreign : 142.21 518.54 120.56 92.78 552.49 94.85 134.71 Major exporters 4/ : 25.95 169.31 24.93 55.12 110.78 80.90 28.51 Argentina : 0.30 16.50 0.03 0.45 4.50 11.70 0.63 Australia : 3.87 21.17 0.05 2.70 5.50 16.00 3.59 Canada : 7.38 26.80 0.15 4.40 8.40 17.50 8.43 EU-15 : 14.41 104.85 24.70 47.57 92.38 35.70 15.88 Major importers 5/ : 81.04 161.51 33.14 15.23 207.20 3.98 64.51 Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.20 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.61 China : 65.16 99.64 0.50 3.50 114.00 0.62 50.68 East. Europe : 4.30 28.30 2.58 10.14 28.89 2.48 3.80 N. Africa : 5.75 10.15 16.80 0.31 28.49 0.22 4.00 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.15 0.50 20.50 0.20 3.78 Selected other : India : 13.08 75.75 0.10 0.50 65.86 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 6/ : 5.30 62.78 5.44 15.91 63.46 4.40 5.67 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.50 11.60 35.05 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 1.00 9.10 0.02 1.30 4.92 3.50 1.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-378-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 157.71 567.63 125.28 100.35 594.47 127.54 130.86 September : 158.47 571.07 126.42 98.97 595.06 128.54 134.48 United States : August : 23.76 54.01 2.45 6.12 34.89 28.58 16.76 September : 23.76 54.19 2.45 6.12 34.62 28.58 17.21 Total foreign : August : 133.94 513.62 122.84 94.23 559.58 98.97 114.11 September : 134.71 516.88 123.97 92.85 560.44 99.97 117.27 Major exporters 4/ : August : 28.73 156.07 26.35 50.91 106.50 80.20 24.46 September : 28.51 152.62 26.35 49.41 105.13 79.20 23.15 Argentina Aug : 0.63 18.00 0.03 0.65 4.85 13.00 0.80 Sep : 0.63 18.00 0.03 0.65 4.85 13.00 0.80 Australia Aug : 3.59 21.50 0.05 2.36 5.20 16.50 3.44 Sep : 3.59 20.50 0.05 2.36 5.20 16.00 2.94 Canada Aug : 8.43 22.50 0.15 3.40 7.40 16.50 7.18 Sep : 8.43 21.50 0.15 3.50 7.50 16.00 6.58 EU-15 Aug : 16.10 94.08 26.13 44.50 89.05 34.20 13.05 Sep : 15.88 92.62 26.13 42.90 87.58 34.20 12.84 Major importers 5/ : August : 63.85 164.15 32.05 15.83 208.75 5.84 45.44 September : 64.51 165.10 31.68 15.60 208.50 6.54 46.24 Brazil Aug : 0.61 2.80 7.00 0.30 9.65 0.00 0.76 Sep : 0.61 3.20 6.50 0.20 9.60 0.00 0.71 China Aug : 50.68 94.00 1.00 2.50 113.00 0.50 32.18 Sep : 50.68 94.00 1.00 2.50 113.00 0.50 32.18 East. Europe Aug : 3.80 35.36 1.35 11.37 30.56 4.52 5.43 Sep : 3.80 35.92 1.48 11.24 30.76 4.72 5.72 N. Africa Aug : 4.00 12.29 16.40 0.31 28.53 0.22 3.94 Sep : 4.00 12.29 16.40 0.31 28.53 0.22 3.94 Pakistan Aug : 3.78 19.00 0.50 0.50 21.00 0.00 2.28 Sep : 3.78 19.00 0.50 0.50 20.60 0.50 2.18 Selected other : India Aug : 21.50 68.00 0.10 0.35 68.10 3.00 18.50 Sep : 21.50 68.50 0.10 0.50 68.10 3.00 19.00 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 5.47 77.22 4.79 20.11 68.46 7.10 11.92 Sep : 5.67 82.48 4.79 19.51 69.42 8.60 14.92 Russia Aug : 1.40 38.50 1.00 13.00 37.00 1.00 2.90 Sep : 1.40 41.50 1.00 13.00 37.50 1.50 4.90 Kazakstan Aug : 1.50 11.00 0.02 1.50 5.22 3.50 3.80 Sep : 1.70 11.00 0.02 1.50 5.22 3.50 4.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-378-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 215.12 877.18 114.30 582.05 882.51 122.23 209.79 United States : 51.37 263.17 2.77 157.09 212.06 56.40 48.86 Total foreign : 163.75 614.01 111.54 424.96 670.46 65.83 160.93 Major exporters 4/ : 8.26 68.07 1.02 35.23 46.00 21.92 9.42 Argentina : 1.59 21.46 0.03 6.96 8.86 12.96 1.26 Australia : 0.81 8.72 0.02 3.58 4.80 4.02 0.73 Canada : 4.88 26.83 0.73 20.09 23.66 3.47 5.30 Major importers 5/ : 37.31 201.15 68.60 178.11 240.85 30.66 35.55 EU-15 : 23.51 103.00 16.67 71.73 95.33 27.36 20.50 East. Europe : 3.98 54.55 1.66 41.69 52.45 3.16 4.57 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.39 16.29 20.82 0.00 2.22 Mexico : 3.13 26.18 9.93 19.60 35.55 0.02 3.68 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.81 4.50 14.34 19.19 0.13 1.59 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 9.28 7.13 9.39 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 102.61 137.22 2.21 91.56 129.40 9.95 102.69 FSU-12 6/ : 4.46 40.97 3.09 27.57 42.95 1.77 3.79 Russia : 1.78 21.80 2.49 14.91 24.87 0.15 1.05 Ukraine : 1.50 10.59 0.11 6.76 10.15 0.78 1.27 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 209.79 857.06 113.17 580.08 874.24 116.28 192.61 United States : 48.86 274.45 2.73 160.34 216.11 56.79 53.14 Total foreign : 160.93 582.60 110.44 419.74 658.13 59.49 139.47 Major exporters 4/ : 9.42 61.06 2.91 33.04 44.43 20.69 8.26 Argentina : 1.26 20.03 0.03 6.20 8.29 11.82 1.20 Australia : 0.73 8.81 0.02 3.20 4.51 4.40 0.65 Canada : 5.30 24.36 2.66 20.45 24.21 3.58 4.53 Major importers 5/ : 35.55 185.23 68.06 169.59 231.81 25.11 31.92 EU-15 : 20.50 107.72 16.20 75.74 99.50 23.48 21.44 East. Europe : 4.57 36.22 2.37 29.29 39.74 1.27 2.15 Japan : 2.22 0.22 19.92 15.90 20.31 0.00 2.05 Mexico : 3.68 24.00 10.46 19.97 35.76 0.02 2.36 Southeast Asia : 1.59 14.67 4.30 14.28 19.01 0.35 1.21 South Korea : 0.85 0.49 8.68 7.08 9.38 0.00 0.63 Selected other : China : 102.69 113.95 2.40 94.18 130.14 7.03 81.88 FSU-12 6/ : 3.79 49.52 0.88 28.34 45.59 2.35 6.26 Russia : 1.05 28.20 0.60 15.20 26.96 0.67 2.23 Ukraine : 1.27 12.99 0.06 7.26 10.53 1.20 2.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-378-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 193.75 858.05 112.15 594.77 891.61 114.25 160.20 September : 192.61 860.20 114.24 597.92 895.44 115.95 157.38 United States : August : 54.79 257.14 2.86 157.30 215.49 57.84 41.47 September : 53.14 256.16 2.65 157.92 216.11 56.95 38.89 Total foreign : August : 138.96 600.91 109.29 437.47 676.12 56.41 118.73 September : 139.47 604.04 111.60 440.00 679.33 59.00 118.49 Major exporters 4/ : August : 7.95 64.66 1.54 34.47 45.90 21.15 7.09 September : 8.26 62.86 2.85 34.82 46.28 20.35 7.33 Argentina Aug : 1.20 19.90 0.03 6.18 8.27 11.67 1.20 Sep : 1.20 19.90 0.03 6.18 8.27 11.67 1.20 Australia Aug : 0.69 9.41 0.00 3.78 5.09 4.31 0.69 Sep : 0.65 9.79 0.00 3.96 5.27 4.51 0.65 Canada Aug : 4.18 25.85 1.32 20.18 24.00 3.78 3.58 Sep : 4.53 23.66 2.62 20.44 24.28 2.68 3.86 Major importers 5/ : August : 31.95 201.51 68.56 177.26 239.69 29.52 32.82 September : 31.92 203.30 68.79 178.10 241.50 29.06 33.45 EU-15 Aug : 21.46 106.64 18.37 76.84 100.56 25.33 20.57 Sep : 21.44 107.57 18.85 77.78 101.58 25.23 21.05 East. Europe Aug : 2.17 51.17 1.35 36.14 46.93 3.72 4.05 Sep : 2.15 52.03 1.32 36.27 47.93 3.37 4.21 Japan Aug : 2.05 0.22 19.59 15.50 19.82 0.00 2.04 Sep : 2.05 0.22 19.58 15.49 19.81 0.00 2.04 Mexico Aug : 2.36 25.80 10.76 20.77 36.56 0.02 2.35 Sep : 2.36 25.80 10.76 20.77 36.56 0.02 2.35 Southeast Asia Aug : 1.21 15.28 4.60 14.69 19.43 0.45 1.21 Sep : 1.21 15.28 4.90 14.99 19.73 0.45 1.21 South Korea Aug : 0.63 0.49 7.75 5.95 8.26 0.00 0.61 Sep : 0.63 0.49 7.25 5.45 7.76 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China Aug : 81.88 113.16 2.65 97.38 133.46 1.03 63.19 Sep : 81.88 113.16 2.65 97.38 133.46 4.03 60.19 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 6.02 49.07 0.93 29.87 47.35 2.61 6.07 Sep : 6.26 52.21 0.96 30.70 48.26 3.51 7.65 Russia Aug : 2.18 28.00 0.63 16.50 28.10 0.65 2.06 Sep : 2.23 30.10 0.65 16.60 28.20 1.15 3.63 Ukraine Aug : 2.42 12.20 0.04 7.22 10.92 1.35 2.39 Sep : 2.59 13.10 0.04 7.82 11.60 1.75 2.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-378-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 169.12 606.93 80.02 420.85 605.11 85.83 170.94 United States : 45.39 239.55 0.37 143.88 192.48 49.21 43.63 Total foreign : 123.73 367.38 79.65 276.97 412.63 36.62 127.31 Major exporters 4/ : 1.69 27.76 0.12 8.17 13.56 13.43 2.58 Argentina : 0.71 17.20 0.02 4.00 5.51 11.96 0.45 South Africa : 0.98 10.56 0.10 4.17 8.05 1.47 2.13 Major importers 5/ : 12.38 101.99 51.23 101.43 139.41 11.68 14.52 EU-15 : 3.66 37.21 10.87 30.49 38.72 8.91 4.11 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.12 12.15 16.32 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 1.85 19.24 4.91 8.25 23.65 0.02 2.34 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.61 4.50 14.15 18.99 0.13 1.59 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.69 6.65 8.40 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 102.09 128.09 0.07 90.00 118.00 9.94 102.31 FSU-12 6/ : 1.36 4.98 1.35 5.01 6.29 0.12 1.28 Russia : 0.15 1.10 1.17 1.60 1.93 0.01 0.47 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 170.94 586.43 80.93 423.70 601.91 82.47 155.46 United States : 43.63 253.21 0.18 148.60 198.51 49.28 49.23 Total foreign : 127.31 333.22 80.75 275.10 403.40 33.19 106.24 Major exporters 4/ : 2.58 23.50 0.07 6.20 11.90 11.90 2.35 Argentina : 0.45 16.00 0.02 3.30 5.00 11.00 0.47 South Africa : 2.13 7.50 0.05 2.90 6.90 0.90 1.88 Major importers 5/ : 14.52 88.02 51.53 94.29 132.55 9.91 11.62 EU-15 : 4.11 38.42 11.08 31.47 40.19 8.72 4.70 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.00 12.00 16.05 0.00 1.11 Mexico : 2.34 17.70 5.50 8.80 24.00 0.02 1.52 Southeast Asia : 1.59 14.47 4.30 14.09 18.81 0.35 1.21 South Korea : 0.85 0.08 8.50 7.00 8.80 0.00 0.63 Selected other : China : 102.31 106.00 0.15 93.00 120.00 7.00 81.46 FSU-12 6/ : 1.28 7.24 0.26 5.13 6.41 0.15 2.22 Russia : 0.47 1.55 0.18 1.65 2.00 0.00 0.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-378-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 156.56 581.10 79.47 433.11 613.66 80.17 124.00 September : 155.46 579.19 81.08 434.98 616.15 81.48 118.50 United States : August : 50.88 235.38 0.38 146.69 198.76 50.80 37.07 September : 49.23 234.67 0.25 147.33 199.40 50.17 34.58 Total foreign : August : 105.69 345.73 79.09 286.42 414.90 29.37 86.94 September : 106.24 344.53 80.83 287.66 416.75 31.32 83.93 Major exporters 4/ : August : 2.35 25.00 0.07 7.20 12.90 12.40 2.11 September : 2.35 25.00 0.07 7.10 12.80 12.50 2.11 Argentina Aug : 0.47 16.00 0.02 3.30 5.00 11.00 0.48 Sep : 0.47 16.00 0.02 3.30 5.00 11.00 0.48 South Africa Aug : 1.88 9.00 0.05 3.90 7.90 1.40 1.63 Sep : 1.88 9.00 0.05 3.80 7.80 1.50 1.63 Major importers 5/ : August : 11.62 101.40 51.34 99.78 138.06 13.03 13.26 September : 11.62 102.17 51.18 99.68 138.87 12.68 13.40 EU-15 Aug : 4.70 40.46 11.78 33.14 41.95 9.72 5.27 Sep : 4.70 40.36 11.78 33.04 41.85 9.72 5.27 Japan Aug : 1.11 0.00 15.70 11.70 15.70 0.00 1.11 Sep : 1.11 0.00 15.70 11.70 15.70 0.00 1.11 Mexico Aug : 1.52 19.00 6.00 9.80 25.00 0.02 1.51 Sep : 1.52 19.00 6.00 9.80 25.00 0.02 1.51 Southeast Asia Aug : 1.21 15.08 4.60 14.50 19.23 0.45 1.21 Sep : 1.21 15.08 4.90 14.80 19.53 0.45 1.21 South Korea Aug : 0.63 0.08 7.50 5.80 7.60 0.00 0.61 Sep : 0.63 0.08 7.00 5.30 7.10 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China Aug : 81.46 105.00 0.20 96.00 123.00 1.00 62.66 Sep : 81.46 105.00 0.20 96.00 123.00 4.00 59.66 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 2.02 5.86 0.28 4.95 6.13 0.25 1.78 Sep : 2.22 4.82 0.38 4.61 5.79 0.15 1.48 Russia Aug : 0.20 1.00 0.20 1.00 1.30 0.00 0.10 Sep : 0.20 0.80 0.30 0.90 1.20 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-378-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 3/ : 133.04 408.40 21.29 398.61 24.06 142.82 United States : 0.69 6.50 0.32 3.85 2.80 0.87 Total foreign : 132.34 401.90 20.97 394.77 21.25 141.96 Major exporters 4/ : 13.77 132.06 0.13 111.42 13.42 21.12 Thailand : 1.06 16.50 0.00 9.60 6.55 1.41 Vietnam : 0.35 20.93 0.04 16.77 3.37 1.18 Major importers 5/ : 14.10 54.54 9.55 62.96 1.44 13.78 Indonesia : 6.83 33.45 1.50 35.40 0.00 6.37 Selected other : China : 96.00 138.94 0.28 133.76 2.95 98.50 Japan : 2.49 8.35 0.64 9.45 0.20 1.83 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 3/ : 142.82 395.60 22.04 400.84 23.33 137.59 United States : 0.87 5.98 0.33 3.66 2.63 0.89 Total foreign : 141.96 389.63 21.71 397.18 20.70 136.70 Major exporters 4/ : 21.12 128.36 0.04 113.10 13.60 22.82 Thailand : 1.41 16.83 0.00 9.99 6.70 1.55 Vietnam : 1.18 20.53 0.04 16.96 3.80 0.99 Major importers 5/ : 13.78 52.48 9.85 64.06 1.47 10.58 Indonesia : 6.37 32.00 1.30 35.88 0.00 3.80 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.30 134.34 1.80 94.20 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.73 9.30 0.60 1.30 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 137.58 395.71 21.63 405.86 23.09 127.44 September : 137.59 394.44 21.83 404.80 23.42 127.23 United States : August : 0.73 6.25 0.34 3.91 2.65 0.77 September : 0.89 6.51 0.34 3.81 2.71 1.21 Total foreign : August : 136.85 389.46 21.29 401.95 20.44 126.67 September : 136.70 387.93 21.49 400.99 20.71 126.02 Major exporters 4/ : August : 22.62 129.33 0.04 114.80 14.00 23.19 September : 22.82 130.33 0.04 114.80 14.00 24.39 Thailand Aug : 1.55 16.83 0.00 10.00 6.70 1.68 Sep : 1.55 16.83 0.00 10.00 6.70 1.68 Vietnam Aug : 0.79 21.00 0.04 17.10 4.30 0.43 Sep : 0.99 21.00 0.04 17.10 4.30 0.63 Major importers 5/ : August : 10.58 53.34 9.65 64.78 1.48 7.31 September : 10.58 53.33 9.65 64.78 1.48 7.30 Indonesia Aug : 3.80 32.50 1.60 36.36 0.00 1.54 Sep : 3.80 32.50 1.60 36.36 0.00 1.54 Selected other : China Aug : 94.20 130.20 0.31 136.11 2.00 86.60 Sep : 94.20 128.10 0.31 134.61 2.00 86.00 Japan Aug : 1.30 8.50 0.70 9.30 0.10 1.10 Sep : 1.30 8.50 0.70 9.30 0.15 1.05 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-378-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 26.64 159.85 47.67 136.24 160.55 46.67 26.94 United States : 9.48 72.22 0.11 42.94 47.43 26.49 7.90 Total foreign : 17.15 87.63 47.56 93.30 113.12 20.18 19.05 Major exporters 3/ : 12.97 58.30 1.40 38.98 41.99 17.41 13.27 Argentina : 6.16 21.20 0.40 17.08 18.02 4.13 5.61 Brazil : 6.80 34.20 1.00 21.20 23.19 11.16 7.65 Major importers 4/ : 3.60 17.38 37.97 39.22 52.56 1.28 5.11 EU-15 : 0.84 1.15 15.66 14.43 15.66 1.05 0.94 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.90 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 1.90 14.29 10.10 15.07 22.90 0.23 3.17 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 26.94 172.11 53.44 144.88 170.34 53.78 28.37 United States : 7.90 75.38 0.08 44.50 49.62 27.22 6.52 Total foreign : 19.05 96.73 53.36 100.38 120.72 26.57 21.85 Major exporters 3/ : 13.27 66.90 1.20 40.00 43.31 23.72 14.34 Argentina : 5.61 26.00 0.40 17.70 18.68 6.70 6.63 Brazil : 7.65 37.50 0.80 21.50 23.75 14.50 7.70 Major importers 4/ : 5.11 18.26 43.49 44.68 58.35 1.65 6.86 EU-15 : 0.94 1.04 16.97 15.32 16.74 1.40 0.81 Japan : 0.63 0.24 4.84 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 3.17 15.40 13.20 18.60 26.40 0.24 5.13 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 29.32 176.84 55.84 151.84 177.59 55.79 28.63 September : 28.37 175.44 55.78 152.11 177.87 55.54 26.18 United States : August : 6.80 78.04 0.11 45.04 49.70 27.08 8.16 September : 6.52 77.12 0.12 45.18 49.88 26.94 6.94 Total foreign : August : 22.53 98.80 55.74 106.80 127.89 28.71 20.47 September : 21.85 98.32 55.66 106.93 127.99 28.60 19.24 Major exporters 3/ : August : 15.04 68.40 1.20 41.90 45.51 25.77 13.36 September : 14.34 68.40 1.20 41.90 45.51 25.77 12.66 Argentina Aug : 6.83 26.00 0.40 18.60 19.63 7.50 6.10 Sep : 6.63 26.00 0.40 18.60 19.63 7.50 5.90 Brazil Aug : 8.20 39.00 0.80 22.50 25.00 15.75 7.25 Sep : 7.70 39.00 0.80 22.50 25.00 15.75 6.75 Major importers 4/ : August : 6.86 18.08 45.72 48.55 62.54 1.63 6.49 September : 6.86 18.08 45.37 48.70 62.68 1.63 6.00 EU-15 Aug : 0.81 1.21 17.72 16.11 17.57 1.36 0.81 Sep : 0.81 1.21 17.72 16.11 17.57 1.36 0.81 Japan Aug : 0.63 0.22 4.85 3.78 5.11 0.00 0.59 Sep : 0.63 0.22 4.85 3.78 5.11 0.00 0.59 China Aug : 5.13 15.00 14.50 21.60 29.60 0.24 4.79 Sep : 5.13 15.00 14.00 21.60 29.60 0.24 4.29 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-378-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 4.79 107.79 39.66 108.91 39.65 3.68 United States : 0.30 34.10 0.05 27.53 6.65 0.27 Total foreign : 4.49 73.69 39.62 81.38 33.00 3.41 Major exporters 3/ : 1.85 33.63 0.10 8.57 26.03 0.99 Argentina : 0.59 13.45 0.00 0.21 13.74 0.09 Brazil : 1.19 16.74 0.10 7.20 9.93 0.90 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.09 25.04 26.19 45.82 5.57 0.93 EU-15 : 0.86 11.44 19.80 25.84 5.54 0.73 China : 0.00 11.98 0.63 12.58 0.03 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.68 115.27 40.12 115.13 40.20 3.73 United States : 0.27 35.64 0.04 28.67 7.03 0.25 Total foreign : 3.41 79.63 40.08 86.46 33.17 3.48 Major exporters 3/ : 0.99 34.72 0.10 8.85 25.90 1.06 Argentina : 0.09 14.20 0.00 0.22 13.80 0.27 Brazil : 0.90 16.98 0.10 7.30 9.90 0.79 India : 0.00 3.53 0.00 1.33 2.20 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 0.93 29.14 26.74 49.93 5.86 1.02 EU-15 : 0.73 12.16 20.28 26.65 5.80 0.72 China : 0.00 14.78 0.25 14.97 0.06 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 3.69 120.73 41.62 120.56 41.64 3.85 September : 3.73 120.92 41.74 120.85 41.68 3.86 United States : August : 0.25 35.97 0.05 29.12 6.90 0.25 September : 0.25 36.02 0.05 29.16 6.90 0.25 Total foreign : August : 3.44 84.76 41.58 91.44 34.75 3.60 September : 3.48 84.90 41.70 91.69 34.78 3.61 Major exporters 3/ : August : 1.03 36.46 0.10 9.22 27.20 1.16 September : 1.06 36.46 0.10 9.22 27.22 1.16 Argentina Aug : 0.24 14.93 0.00 0.23 14.55 0.40 Sep : 0.27 14.93 0.00 0.23 14.58 0.40 Brazil Aug : 0.79 17.77 0.10 7.50 10.40 0.76 Sep : 0.79 17.77 0.10 7.50 10.40 0.76 India Aug : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.50 2.25 0.00 Sep : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.50 2.25 0.00 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.02 32.22 27.93 54.01 6.10 1.06 September : 1.02 32.26 27.93 54.04 6.11 1.06 EU-15 Aug : 0.72 12.76 21.11 27.82 6.00 0.78 Sep : 0.72 12.80 21.11 27.85 6.01 0.78 China Aug : 0.00 17.16 0.30 17.36 0.10 0.00 Sep : 0.00 17.16 0.30 17.36 0.10 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-378-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 2.18 24.79 7.10 24.35 7.28 2.43 United States : 0.69 8.09 0.04 7.28 0.62 0.91 Total foreign : 1.49 16.71 7.06 17.07 6.66 1.53 Major exporters 3/ : 0.75 9.76 0.80 4.58 5.92 0.80 Argentina : 0.25 3.12 0.00 0.11 3.04 0.23 Brazil : 0.32 4.03 0.22 3.00 1.20 0.36 EU-15 : 0.18 2.60 0.58 1.48 1.69 0.21 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.28 1.57 4.69 0.08 0.29 China : 0.19 2.48 0.56 2.87 0.08 0.28 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.43 26.25 7.41 26.10 7.55 2.44 United States : 0.91 8.33 0.04 7.42 0.64 1.22 Total foreign : 1.53 17.92 7.37 18.68 6.92 1.22 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 10.08 0.79 4.83 6.22 0.62 Argentina : 0.23 3.22 0.00 0.11 3.20 0.15 Brazil : 0.36 4.10 0.19 3.10 1.25 0.30 EU-15 : 0.21 2.76 0.60 1.62 1.77 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 3.91 1.61 5.58 0.05 0.18 China : 0.28 3.07 0.08 3.21 0.05 0.17 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 2.36 27.56 8.09 27.74 8.14 2.12 September : 2.44 27.61 8.10 27.70 8.19 2.26 United States : August : 1.11 8.47 0.04 7.62 1.13 0.86 September : 1.22 8.50 0.04 7.58 1.16 1.02 Total foreign : August : 1.25 19.08 8.05 20.12 7.01 1.25 September : 1.22 19.12 8.06 20.12 7.03 1.24 Major exporters 3/ : August : 0.64 10.57 0.73 5.04 6.26 0.64 September : 0.62 10.59 0.76 5.05 6.28 0.63 Argentina Aug : 0.15 3.38 0.00 0.12 3.22 0.19 Sep : 0.15 3.38 0.00 0.12 3.22 0.19 Brazil Aug : 0.32 4.28 0.19 3.22 1.30 0.27 Sep : 0.30 4.30 0.19 3.22 1.30 0.26 EU-15 Aug : 0.18 2.90 0.54 1.70 1.73 0.19 Sep : 0.18 2.90 0.57 1.70 1.75 0.19 Major importers 4/ : August : 0.18 4.47 1.75 6.14 0.09 0.17 September : 0.18 4.47 1.75 6.14 0.09 0.17 China Aug : 0.17 3.58 0.20 3.70 0.09 0.17 Sep : 0.17 3.58 0.20 3.70 0.09 0.17 Pakistan Aug : 0.01 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.00 Sep : 0.01 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-378-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World : 45.13 87.36 28.41 91.91 27.31 0.20 41.48 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.24 6.75 0.09 3.92 Total foreign : 41.19 70.39 28.32 81.67 20.56 0.11 37.56 Major exporters 5/ : 12.96 39.75 2.49 25.32 15.76 -0.09 14.23 Pakistan : 1.71 8.60 0.48 7.65 0.42 0.03 2.70 India : 4.75 12.18 1.60 13.55 0.07 0.00 4.91 Central Asia 6/ : 1.50 7.30 0.01 1.29 5.78 0.00 1.74 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.09 3.89 4/ 0.22 3.75 0.00 1.01 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.93 5.28 0.28 1.21 4.37 -0.14 3.05 Australia : 2.09 3.46 4/ 0.19 3.21 -0.16 2.31 Argentina : 0.49 0.57 0.05 0.40 0.35 0.01 0.35 Major importers : 26.53 27.71 19.55 48.46 3.66 0.20 21.47 Brazil : 1.02 3.10 1.55 4.10 0.01 0.00 1.56 Mexico : 0.56 0.67 1.81 2.40 0.13 0.03 0.49 China : 21.13 17.60 0.12 22.20 1.70 0.00 14.95 Europe : 1.62 2.66 5.13 6.03 1.53 0.08 1.77 Turkey : 0.59 3.63 2.40 5.60 0.20 0.00 0.83 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.04 8.54 8.14 0.09 0.10 1.87 Indonesia : 0.22 0.01 2.08 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.24 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.52 1.48 0.02 0.00 0.43 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World : 41.48 88.33 26.79 91.83 26.28 -0.38 38.87 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.87 6.70 -0.48 6.03 Total foreign : 37.56 71.14 26.77 82.96 19.58 0.10 32.84 Major exporters 5/ : 14.23 36.99 2.38 25.69 15.50 -0.10 12.51 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.90 1.55 13.30 0.05 0.00 4.01 Central Asia 6/ : 1.74 6.44 0.01 1.58 5.08 0.00 1.52 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.01 3.22 4/ 0.22 3.16 0.00 0.85 S. Hemis. 8/ : 3.05 5.64 0.22 1.14 5.21 -0.15 2.72 Australia : 2.31 3.53 4/ 0.18 3.90 -0.17 1.94 Argentina : 0.35 0.74 0.02 0.38 0.38 0.01 0.34 Major importers : 21.47 30.90 18.06 49.17 2.72 0.20 18.35 Brazil : 1.56 4.10 0.75 4.35 0.38 0.00 1.69 Mexico : 0.49 0.36 1.95 2.10 0.10 0.03 0.57 China : 14.95 20.30 0.23 23.50 0.45 0.00 11.54 Europe : 1.77 2.49 5.08 5.96 1.62 0.08 1.70 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.65 5.00 0.12 0.00 0.96 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.87 0.05 8.40 8.27 0.06 0.10 1.89 Indonesia : 0.24 0.01 2.75 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.54 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.42 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.44 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 2.16 million bales in 1999/00 and 2.20 million in 2000/2001. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-378-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World : August : 38.02 95.95 28.49 92.60 28.24 0.08 41.53 September : 38.87 96.22 28.29 92.55 27.96 0.13 42.73 United States : August : 5.55 20.00 0.01 8.50 9.00 -0.04 8.10 September : 6.03 19.99 0.01 8.30 9.00 0.04 8.70 Total foreign : August : 32.47 75.95 28.48 84.10 19.24 0.12 33.43 September : 32.84 76.23 28.28 84.25 18.96 0.10 34.03 Major exporters 5/ : August : 12.51 39.38 2.65 26.08 14.94 -0.08 13.60 September : 12.51 39.56 2.75 26.48 14.99 -0.10 13.45 Pakistan Aug : 2.57 8.30 0.60 8.30 0.45 0.03 2.70 Sep : 2.65 8.30 0.70 8.40 0.45 0.03 2.77 India Aug : 4.01 12.50 1.65 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.51 Sep : 4.01 12.50 1.65 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.51 Central Asia 6/Aug : 1.52 6.58 0.01 1.51 5.01 0.00 1.58 Sep : 1.52 6.58 0.01 1.81 4.81 0.00 1.48 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Aug : 0.85 3.85 4/ 0.22 3.41 0.00 1.06 Sep : 0.85 4.10 4/ 0.22 3.61 0.00 1.11 S. Hemis 8/ Aug : 2.82 5.56 0.25 1.12 4.63 -0.13 3.00 Sep : 2.72 5.34 0.25 1.12 4.58 -0.15 2.75 Australia Aug : 1.93 3.40 4/ 0.15 3.25 -0.15 2.08 Sep : 1.94 3.20 4/ 0.15 3.25 -0.17 1.91 Argentina Aug : 0.34 0.75 0.02 0.38 0.35 0.01 0.38 Sep : 0.34 0.75 0.02 0.38 0.35 0.01 0.38 Major importers Aug : 17.98 33.31 19.26 49.70 2.91 0.19 17.74 Sep : 18.35 33.56 18.96 49.45 2.69 0.19 18.54 Brazil Aug : 1.69 4.00 0.90 4.20 0.60 0.00 1.79 Sep : 1.69 3.75 1.00 4.20 0.50 0.00 1.74 Mexico Aug : 0.54 0.44 1.75 2.00 0.10 0.03 0.61 Sep : 0.57 0.44 1.75 2.00 0.10 0.03 0.64 China Aug : 11.55 22.50 1.00 23.50 0.50 0.00 11.05 Sep : 11.54 23.00 0.70 23.25 0.40 0.00 11.59 Europe Aug : 1.70 2.41 5.09 5.93 1.47 0.07 1.72 Sep : 1.70 2.41 5.09 5.93 1.47 0.07 1.72 Turkey Aug : 0.78 3.90 1.85 5.50 0.15 0.00 0.88 Sep : 0.96 3.90 1.75 5.50 0.15 0.00 0.96 Sel. Asia 9/ Aug : 1.73 0.06 8.68 8.57 0.09 0.10 1.70 Sep : 1.89 0.06 8.68 8.57 0.07 0.10 1.89 Indonesia Aug : 0.39 0.01 2.70 2.65 0.02 0.05 0.39 Sep : 0.54 0.01 2.70 2.65 0.02 0.05 0.54 S. Korea Aug : 0.42 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.02 0.00 0.40 Sep : 0.44 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.02 0.00 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.25 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-378-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2000 : III : 6914 4606 11623 7594 1340 9070 20693 1751 41.2 IV : 6511 5010 11634 7544 1385 9050 20684 1786 40.7 Annual : 26777 18928 46150 30495 5402 36427 82577 7035 167.7 : 2001 : I : 6182 4805 11096 7547 1332 9007 20103 1756 41.3 II : 6501 4544 11145 7926 1378 9436 20581 1775 42.7 III*: 6785 4480 11363 7750 1375 9255 20618 1780 40.7 IV*: 6625 5000 11725 7700 1425 9245 20970 1835 41.0 Annual : Aug Proj : 25983 19034 45423 30906 5535 36950 82373 7145 165.7 Sep Proj : 26093 18829 45329 30923 5510 36943 82272 7146 165.7 : 2002 : I*: 6225 4925 11251 7700 1350 9175 20426 1800 42.4 II*: 6425 4675 11193 8050 1450 9630 20823 1790 44.0 Annual : Aug Proj : 25000 19625 45008 31600 5700 37800 82808 7270 170.2 Sep Proj : 25150 19625 45158 31600 5700 37800 82958 7270 170.0 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2000 : III : 65.43 46.43 56.8 73.9 67.1 12.67 IV : 72.26 40.78 57.6 76.2 83.1 12.70 Annual : 69.65 44.70 56.2 70.5 68.9 12.33 : 2001 : I : 79.11 42.83 57.8 61.7 75.8 13.37 II : 75.13 52.05 59.2 65.0 63.3 15.30 III*: 70-71 50-51 60-61 66-67 62-63 16.30-16.50 IV*: 68-72 42-44 58-60 71-75 73-77 16.60-17.10 Annual : Aug Proj : 73-75 46-47 58-59 67-68 69-71 15.25-15.45 Sep Proj : 73-74 47-48 59-60 66-67 69-70 15.40-15.60 : 2002 : I*: 70-76 42-46 57-61 60-64 65-71 13.50-14.30 II*: 76-82 46-50 59-63 62-68 56-60 12.10-13.10 Annual : Aug Proj : 76-83 42-45 59-64 66-71 65-71 13.00-14.00 Sep Proj : 76-82 43-46 59-64 66-71 63-69 13.00-14.00 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-378-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 2000 : 411 26888 3032 30331 2516 525 27290 69.4 2001 Proj. Aug : 525 26089 3055 29669 2369 425 26875 67.7 Sep : 525 26199 3059 29783 2293 440 27050 68.2 2002 Proj. Aug : 425 25106 3075 28606 2500 385 25721 64.3 Sep : 440 25256 3075 28771 2400 385 25986 65.0 : PORK : 2000 : 489 18952 967 20408 1305 477 18626 52.5 2001 Proj. Aug : 477 19064 916 20457 1543 450 18464 51.6 Sep : 477 18859 915 20251 1541 450 18260 51.0 2002 Proj. Aug : 450 19655 960 21065 1415 500 19150 53.1 Sep : 450 19655 960 21065 1415 500 19150 53.1 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 2000 : 914 46299 4128 51341 3827 1020 46494 123.7 2001 Proj. Aug : 1020 45572 4121 50713 3917 894 45902 121.0 Sep : 1020 45478 4141 50639 3839 908 45892 121.0 2002 Proj. Aug : 894 45157 4186 50237 3919 904 45414 119.0 Sep : 908 45307 4205 50420 3819 901 45700 119.8 : BROILERS : 2000 : 796 30209 6 31011 5548 798 24665 76.9 2001 Proj. Aug : 798 30582 9 31388 6060 700 24628 76.1 Sep : 798 30599 9 31405 6183 675 24547 75.9 2002 Proj. Aug : 700 31262 8 31970 6200 740 25030 76.8 Sep : 675 31262 8 31945 6350 740 24855 76.2 : TURKEYS : 2000 : 254 5333 1 5589 458 241 4889 17.8 2001 Proj. Aug : 241 5463 1 5706 491 250 4964 17.9 Sep : 241 5439 1 5681 492 250 4939 17.8 2002 Proj. Aug : 250 5625 1 5876 495 275 5105 18.2 Sep : 250 5625 1 5876 495 275 5105 18.2 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 2000 : 1058 36073 9 37140 6229 1048 29863 95.8 2001 Proj. Aug : 1048 36553 12 37612 6645 958 30008 95.5 Sep : 1048 36546 12 37605 6768 933 29903 95.2 2002 Proj. Aug : 958 37387 11 38356 6775 1025 30554 96.5 Sep : 933 37387 11 38331 6925 1025 30379 96.0 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2000 : 1972 82372 4137 88481 10056 2068 76357 219.5 2001 Proj. Aug : 2068 82125 4133 88325 10562 1852 75910 216.6 Sep : 2068 82024 4153 88244 10607 1841 75795 216.2 2002 Proj. Aug : 1852 82544 4197 88593 10694 1929 75968 215.5 Sep : 1841 82694 4216 88751 10744 1926 76079 215.7 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-378-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2001 Projected : 2002 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1999 : 2000 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 8.4 7.6 11.4 11.4 10.0 12.0 Production : 6912.0 7034.9 7144.6 7145.6 7270.0 7270.0 Imports : 7.4 8.4 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 6927.8 7051.0 7163.8 7164.8 7288.0 7290.0 : Use : Exports : 161.7 171.8 172.4 175.4 165.0 165.0 Hatching use : 941.7 940.2 947.0 952.0 970.0 970.0 Ending stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.0 12.0 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5816.7 5927.5 6034.4 6025.4 6143.0 6145.0 Per capita (number) : 255.7 258.3 260.6 260.3 263.2 263.3 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Proj 1/: 2001/02 Proj 1/ Commodity :1998/99:1999/00:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.8 7.4 8.9 8.9 7.7 7.7 Production : 161.2 167.4 165.3 165.3 169.3 169.2 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 159.8 166.1 164.1 164.1 168.1 167.9 Imports 2/ : 4.8 4.6 5.2 5.3 4.7 4.7 Total cml. supply 2/ : 170.5 178.2 178.2 178.3 180.5 180.3 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 162.8 168.5 170.2 170.3 172.3 172.1 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 7.4 8.9 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.0 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 5.4 8.5 6.7 6.5 2.1 2.0 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 14.04 9.99 12.15- 12.25- 11.75- 11.90- : 12.25 12.35 12.65 12.70 : Class IV : NA 11.51 13.65- 13.80- 12.10- 12.30- : 13.85 14.00 13.20 13.30 : All milk 6/ : 15.38 12.61 14.40- 14.40- 13.50- 13.70- : 14.50 14.50 14.40 14.50 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 11 0 0 5 5 Cheese : 6 17 16 16 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 449 690 560 540 175 170 Dry whole milk : 12 34 3 3 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-378-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 20-year record of the differences between the September projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the September projection and the final estimate have averaged 10.3 million tons (1.9%) ranging from -30.7 to 13.1 million tons. The September projection has been below the estimate 11 times and above 9 times. Reliability of September Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.9 10.3 -30.7 13.1 11 9 U.S. : 1.2 0.8 -1.4 2.5 7 13 Foreign : 2.2 10.1 -30.9 12.0 11 9 Exports : World : 4.1 4.7 -13.5 6.2 13 7 U.S. : 8.8 3.0 -10.0 7.2 7 13 Foreign : 4.9 3.9 -11.5 4.0 13 7 Domestic use : World : 1.6 8.3 -23.4 13.2 12 8 U.S. : 6.1 1.9 -3.7 3.6 10 10 Foreign : 1.5 7.7 -21.0 12.3 14 6 Ending stocks : World : 6.8 8.5 -26.0 14.3 14 6 U.S. : 13.6 3.3 -9.1 12.4 10 10 Foreign : 7.5 7.2 -25.4 7.4 13 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.5 12.8 -39.4 24.5 14 6 U.S. : 3.8 8.4 -21.5 26.0 13 7 Foreign : 1.6 9.4 -23.3 13.5 12 8 Exports : World : 5.6 5.8 -11.5 16.5 12 8 U.S. : 14.8 7.9 -19.0 14.5 9 11 Foreign : 12.5 6.3 -12.4 12.7 11 9 Domestic use : World : 1.2 10.2 -29.1 20.8 7 13 U.S. : 3.6 6.6 -15.8 13.2 13 7 Foreign : 1.4 9.1 -20.2 22.0 11 9 Ending stocks : World : 10.8 14.9 -43.2 18.6 14 6 U.S. : 18.4 9.5 -32.2 13.5 9 11 Foreign : 13.1 10.0 -25.8 11.3 16 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.5 -24.1 3.4 17 3 U.S. : 4.4 0.2 -0.5 0.5 10 9 Foreign : 2.3 7.5 -24.4 3.6 17 3 Exports : World : 8.7 1.6 -6.7 1.5 12 8 U.S. : 7.6 0.2 -0.7 0.9 9 9 Foreign : 10.0 1.6 -6.7 1.6 13 7 Domestic use : World : 1.6 5.3 -22.7 3.0 16 4 U.S. : 5.6 0.1 -0.4 0.4 11 9 Foreign : 1.6 5.3 -23.1 3.2 16 4 Ending stocks : World : 12.5 4.8 -13.0 5.2 16 4 U.S. : 19.1 0.2 -0.9 0.7 10 10 Foreign : 13.4 4.8 -13.2 6.1 16 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-378-32 Reliability of September Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.1 3.6 -9.3 4.7 13 7 U.S. : 4.5 2.7 -5.5 4.6 9 11 Foreign : 5.8 3.6 -10.0 4.6 11 9 Exports : World : 6.2 2.1 -7.8 2.5 15 5 U.S. : 9.4 1.9 -4.6 5.5 11 9 Foreign : 17.6 1.8 -7.9 2.3 9 11 Domestic use : World : 3.1 3.8 -9.3 3.1 13 7 U.S. : 3.6 1.4 -3.8 1.5 14 6 Foreign : 3.9 3.2 -6.7 3.7 14 6 Ending stocks : World : 14.1 2.5 -6.6 6.8 11 9 U.S. : 31.3 2.3 -3.5 4.8 5 15 Foreign : 18.0 2.2 -7.2 3.2 12 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.3 2.7 -10.9 9.5 12 8 U.S. : 4.8 0.7 -1.9 2.4 10 9 Foreign : 4.0 2.7 -11.2 9.8 11 9 Exports : World : 4.7 1.2 -3.3 2.2 10 10 U.S. : 15.1 0.8 -2.1 2.0 10 10 Foreign : 6.1 1.1 -3.3 1.9 8 12 Mill use : World : 2.5 2.1 -6.6 3.2 7 13 U.S. : 6.0 0.5 -1.1 1.4 11 7 Foreign : 2.6 1.9 -5.9 4.0 8 11 Ending stocks : World : 12.3 4.3 -12.7 12.5 13 7 U.S. : 30.5 1.3 -2.3 2.5 9 11 Foreign : 12.5 3.8 -13.2 10.9 13 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-1999/00 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2000/01 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 20 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-378-33 Reliability of United States September Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 4.0 307 -846 885 13 7 Exports : 15.6 286 -725 521 8 12 Domestic use : 4.1 248 -553 430 13 7 Ending stocks : 21.4 345 -1321 490 9 11 : SORGHUM : Production : 4.9 32 -69 81 10 9 Exports : 17.6 43 -115 97 11 9 Domestic use : 8.8 41 -114 78 10 10 Ending stocks : 49.3 53 -155 112 6 14 : BARLEY : Production : 2.7 12 -29 36 9 11 Exports : 31.4 20 -82 38 10 8 Domestic use : 7.3 27 -47 72 10 8 Ending stocks : 13.4 24 -61 70 9 11 : OATS : Production : 5.8 14 -19 44 4 15 Exports : 77.1 2 -5 8 5 9 Domestic use : 4.3 16 -39 30 8 12 Ending stocks : 14.5 18 -40 47 12 8 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.7 1106 -2846 1342 13 7 Exports : 10.9 732 -1750 1900 9 11 Domestic use : 3.2 736 -1550 1075 15 5 Ending stocks : 33.4 76 -179 368 8 9 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.6 505 -1473 791 11 9 Exports : 26.8 412 -1250 1219 10 10 Domestic use : 2.6 328 -985 300 15 5 Ending stocks : 27.8 411 -975 1143 8 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.8 929 -566 2486 12 6 Pork : 2.5 411 -1315 1242 8 10 Broilers : 2.0 425 -1337 622 13 5 Turkeys : 2.4 99 -444 235 13 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.6 97 -111 188 13 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 1.9 -7.1 4.6 10 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-99/00 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2000/01 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 20 for crops and 18 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2000 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1999/2000 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-378-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- End of File -----