WASDE-407 February 10, 2004 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are down 25 million bushels from last month due to increased exports. Projected exports are 25 million bushels above last month because of increased world import demand and higher- than-expected sales and shipments to date. Both HRW and SRW exports increase 10 million bushels while White wheat exports rise by 5 million bushels. The projected range of 2003/04 wheat prices is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $3.30 to $3.40 per bushel. Global 2003/04 wheat supply and use projections are little changed from last month. Smaller production in China, the EU, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and several other countries is partially offset by increases for Argentina, Brazil, Turkmenistan, and other countries. Projected world wheat imports are up just over 1 million tons, with increases for Romania, Morocco, Turkey, Syria, and some other countries but decreases for Israel and some of the republics of the former Soviet Union. Projected exports are up for the United States, Argentina, Brazil, China, Iraq, and several other countries. Exports are down for Kazakhstan. Due to slightly smaller production and increased use, projected global stocks are reduced by just over 1 million tons. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of corn are down 80 million bushels from last month due to higher exports and higher domestic use. Exports are raised 25 million bushels because of increased world import demand and the strong pace of sales to date. Projected feed and residual use is up 25 million bushels to compensate for the lower feed use of other feed grains and to reflect greater use of grain in livestock rations. Industrial use is up 30 million bushels due to higher-than-expected ethanol production and increased ethanol capacity. Barley and oat feed use are lower by 10 and 5 million bushels, respectively. The lower end of the projected price range for corn is up 20 cents to $2.35 per bushel while the upper end is up 10 cents to $2.55. Projected sorghum prices are $2.35 to $2.55 per bushel. Global 2003/04 coarse grain supply and use projections are up slightly from last month. Coarse grain production is up about 1 million tons from last month. Significant increases occur in Brazil's corn and grain sorghum crops, with smaller increases in other countries. Partially offsetting these increases are reductions in Ukraine's barley crop, Russia's oat crop, and South Africa's corn crop as well as smaller decreases in several other countries. Global corn imports are up nearly 1 million tons from last month, largely due to higher-than- expected purchases by the EU, Eastern Europe, and South Africa. In addition to the increase in U.S. corn exports, reduced feed use is expected to increase Thailand's exports slightly from last month. Despite a slightly larger expected global coarse grain crop, increased food and industrial use results in a slight decline in global coarse grain stocks. RICE: Projected U.S. imports for 2003/04 are lowered 0.5 million cwt to 15.0 million cwt based on a slower-than-expected import pace to date. Exports are projected at 94 million cwt, down 3 million cwt from last month, and nearly 31 million cwt below last year's record. Rough rice exports are projected at 36 million cwt, 8 million cwt below last month, while exports of milled/brown rice are projected at 58 million cwt (rough-rice basis), 5 million cwt above last month. Exports of long-grain rice are projected at 74 million cwt, 2 million cwt below last month, while combined medium- and short-grain rice exports are projected at 20 million cwt, 1 million cwt below last month. The pace of exports has slowed significantly since January, particularly for long-grain rough rice. Ending stocks are projected at 24.9 million cwt, 2.5 million cwt above last month but nearly 2 million cwt below 2002/03. The season-average price range is narrowed 10 cents per cwt on each end to $7.10 to $7.40 per cwt compared to a revised $4.49 per cwt for 2002/03. Global production, trade, and ending stocks for 2003/04 are lowered from a month ago. The slight decline in global rice production is due primarily to a smaller China crop, partially offset by increases for Brazil, Vietnam, and Cambodia. China's 2003/04 rice crop is projected at 115.0 million tons, 1.5 million tons below last month, 7 million tons below 2002/03, and 25 million tons below the 1997/98 record. This month's decline in China's crop is based in part on analysis of official data from the Government of China. Global 2003/04 ending stocks are projected at 82.6 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from last month and nearly 24 million tons below 2002/03. Global ending stocks are the lowest since 1983/84. The reduction in ending stocks is primarily due to declines in China, India, and Thailand partially offset by increases in Brazil, Vietnam, Argentina, Egypt, and the United States. OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2003/04 are unchanged this month, leaving projected ending stocks at 125 million bushels. Despite strong year-to-date soybean exports, competition from record new-crop South American soybean production combined with tight domestic supplies is expected to limit U.S. soybean exports during the second half of the marketing year. Slower growth in protein demand in Southeast Asia also is expected to dampen export prospects. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2003/04 is narrowed to $6.95 to $7.55 per bushel compared with $6.90 to $7.60 last month. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 28.0 to 30.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cent on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $230 to $250 per short ton, up 5 dollars on both ends of the range. Soybean product prices are raised this month based on strong year-to-date prices. Global oilseed production for 2003/04 is projected at 345.9 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month. Foreign production, projected at 270.3 million tons, accounts for all of the change. Brazil's soybean production is forecast at a record 61.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month. Timely rains in southern producing areas have raised yield prospects. Foreign sunflowerseed production is projected higher this month as larger crops in Russia, Hungary, and Kazakhstan more than offset a smaller crop in Ukraine. China's cotton seed production is also raised this month. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2003/04 is decreased 18,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, based on processors' production projections and estimates compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Lower beet sugar production more than offsets higher cane sugar production. On the use side, lower sales to manufacturers under the re-export program are offset by higher sales for domestic food use. The projected stocks-to-use ratio is 19.7 percent, compared with 20.3 percent last month. For 2002/03, ending stocks are lowered due to processor data revisions. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat and poultry production forecasts in 2004 are raised from last month as reduced forecasts for beef and turkey production are more than offset by higher forecasts for pork and broilers. The beef production forecast is lowered as the pace of steer and heifer slaughter in the first half of the year is expected to be slower. The pork production forecast is raised as slaughter in the first quarter is anticipated to be larger than expected last month. Broiler production is forecast higher as record broiler prices are expected to encourage producers to expand production through the year. The turkey production forecast is lowered slightly. The meat production estimate for 2003 is changed slightly based on December slaughter data. Beef, pork, and turkey production estimates are reduced slightly but the broiler production estimate is raised. The 2004 broiler export forecast is raised this month, largely as the recent outbreak of high pathogenic Avian Influenza in Asia has resulted in a number of major importing countries banning imports from their traditional supply sources. The United States and Brazil are expected to benefit from increased access to these markets, but U.S. gains are expected to be limited by constraints on the ability to competitively price certain products into these markets. Furthermore, in the near term, bans on imports of U.S. broilers announced following the recent discovery of a different strain of Avian Influenza on a Delaware farm is expected to disrupt short-term exports. However, based on previous experience, it is expected that any nationwide bans currently in place will be regionalized barring any further outbreaks, permitting the flow of exports from States unaffected by the disease outbreak. Beef and pork export forecasts are unchanged from last month. Pork import forecasts for 2003 and 2004 are reduced from last month as imports from Canada have slowed. Cattle prices in 2004 are lowered to $72 to $77 per cwt. Pork price forecasts are raised to $38 to $40 per cwt reflecting strong first-quarter demand. Stronger exports and continued strength in domestic demand are expect to push broiler prices to record levels. Forecast wholesale 12-city broiler prices are raised to at 68 to 72 cents per pound for 2004. The dairy production forecast for 2003/04 is lowered 900 million pounds from last month. Forecast growth in milk per cow for 2004 is slowed due to reduced availability of recombinant bovine somatotropin. Cow numbers are also reduced from last month, reflecting tightness in the supply of dairy replacement heifers. As a result of lower expected milk production, forecasts of commercial stocks and use are lowered as well. Milk prices are forecast higher than last month and CCC net removals on a milkfat basis are forecast lower. Butter net removals are expected to reflect the sales of government stocks of butter in excess of removals during the year. Milk prices forecasts are raised, with the Class III price expected at $11.85 to $12.35 per cwt and the Class IV price at $10.65 to $11.35 per cwt. The all milk price is forecast is at $13.00 to $13.50 per cwt. COTTON: The U.S. 2003/04 supply and demand projections are unchanged this month. This month's world supply and demand projections for 2003/04 include slight adjustments to production, consumption, and stocks. Lower beginning stocks mainly reflect a reduction for Pakistan. World production is raised about 450,000 bales, including increases for China, Australia, and Central Asia, partially offset by reductions for Greece and other countries. World consumption is marginally higher, as increases for China, Pakistan, and Syria are nearly offset by reductions for Europe, Russia, and Hong Kong. World ending stocks are raised slightly. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: J. B. PENN ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on March 10, 2004. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2004: Mar. 10, Apr. 8, May 12, June 11, July 12, Aug. 12, Sep. 10, Oct. 12, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. Agricultural Outlook Forum 2004: Ensuring a Healthy Food Supply Attend USDA's Outlook Forum on February 19 and 20 to learn how growing concern about diet and health is shaping the outlook for agriculture and the food industry. Consumers are looking for foods they see as better for their diet or health. Health experts are urging Americans to watch their weight and to exercise more. The recent discovery of a cow infected with BSE must now be factored into commodity and trade prospects. At the Forum, industry and government officials and leading experts will discuss how American farmers, the food industry and policy makers are responding to these developments, and assess their possible impact. Confirmed speakers include Secretary of Agriculture Ann M. Veneman, McDonald's CEO Jim Cantalupo and European Commission Member Franz Fischler, the top EU official for agriculture, rural development, and fisheries. American Dietetic Association President Marriane Smith Edge, USDA Under Secretary Eric Bost, and Pepsico food innovation leader Brock Leach are among confirmed participants in a Friday morning plenary session on promoting healthy and nutritious diets. Access www.usda.gov/oce for an up-to-date list of confirmed speakers and online registration. If you can't attend in person, access online webcasts at www.usda.gov February 19 and 20, starting 1 p.m. Eastern time. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. Mail: Government Printing Office, Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-0001. ELECTRONIC ACCESS This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically in either ascii text format or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. Click on the "Reports by E-Mail" button to sign up for e-mail delivery of the WASDE and other USDA releases in text format. An electronic calendar of USDA release dates is posted at: http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/rptcal/calindex.htm. WASDE-407-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 1,871.26 2,414.72 238.80 1,901.46 513.26 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,818.74 2,332.00 239.60 1,915.21 416.79 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 1,826.94 2,243.80 226.76 1,932.07 311.73 February : 1,826.35 2,243.14 230.36 1,934.75 308.39 Wheat : 2001/02 : 581.57 787.30 108.12 586.34 200.96 2002/03 (Est.) : 566.39 767.35 107.36 601.78 165.57 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 552.66 718.10 101.32 590.84 127.26 February : 551.77 717.34 103.62 591.40 125.95 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 891.26 1,079.43 103.66 903.95 175.47 2002/03 (Est.) : 871.51 1,046.98 103.88 902.03 144.95 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 883.26 1,027.77 100.34 927.30 100.47 February : 884.14 1,029.09 101.73 929.25 99.84 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 398.42 547.99 27.03 411.17 136.82 2002/03 (Est.) : 380.85 517.67 28.36 411.40 106.27 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 391.02 497.92 25.11 413.93 84.00 February : 390.43 496.70 25.01 414.11 82.60 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 321.84 405.18 84.29 253.47 67.42 2002/03 (Est.) : 295.63 368.18 72.98 250.06 45.15 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 345.62 395.83 89.78 260.62 45.43 February : 345.62 395.51 91.00 261.69 42.82 Wheat : 2001/02 : 53.26 80.04 26.19 32.70 21.15 2002/03 (Est.) : 44.06 67.32 23.25 30.70 13.37 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 63.59 79.01 30.62 33.18 15.21 February : 63.59 79.01 31.30 33.18 14.53 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 261.86 317.12 55.15 216.92 45.05 2002/03 (Est.) : 245.03 292.64 45.87 215.83 30.94 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 275.70 309.18 56.08 223.59 29.51 February : 275.70 308.87 56.72 224.67 27.49 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 6.71 8.02 2.95 3.85 1.22 2002/03 (Est.) : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.54 0.83 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 6.32 7.65 3.08 3.85 0.71 February : 6.32 7.63 2.99 3.85 0.79 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-407-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 1,549.42 2,009.54 154.51 1,647.99 445.84 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,523.12 1,963.82 166.62 1,665.15 371.65 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 1,481.32 1,847.96 136.99 1,671.45 266.29 February : 1,480.73 1,847.63 139.36 1,673.06 265.57 Wheat : 2001/02 : 528.31 707.26 81.93 553.64 179.81 2002/03 (Est.) : 522.33 700.04 84.11 571.09 152.20 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 489.07 639.10 70.70 557.66 112.05 February : 488.18 638.34 72.32 558.22 111.41 Coarse grains 5/ : 2001/02 : 629.40 762.30 48.51 687.03 130.42 2002/03 (Est.) : 626.48 754.34 58.01 686.20 114.01 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 607.56 718.59 44.26 703.71 70.96 February : 608.44 720.22 45.02 704.58 72.35 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 391.71 539.97 24.07 407.32 135.60 2002/03 (Est.) : 374.31 509.44 24.50 407.86 105.44 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 384.70 490.28 22.03 410.07 83.29 February : 384.11 489.07 22.03 410.25 81.81 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2001/02 : 98.52 141.14 28.94 94.55 46.93 2002/03 (Est.) : 88.27 135.20 30.56 98.07 36.77 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 92.20 129.17 32.05 97.11 32.36 February : 92.65 129.42 32.02 97.24 32.49 : United States 2001/02 : 20.30 26.32 11.00 7.70 7.45 2002/03 (Est.) : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.39 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 18.22 23.66 13.20 6.20 4.25 February : 18.22 23.66 13.20 6.20 4.25 : Foreign 3/ 2001/02 : 78.22 114.82 17.94 86.86 39.48 2002/03 (Est.) : 71.07 110.48 18.66 90.80 31.38 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 73.98 105.51 18.85 90.91 28.11 February : 74.43 105.76 18.82 91.04 28.24 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-407-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 325.12 360.92 64.81 264.68 37.00 2002/03 (Est.) : 329.08 366.09 72.21 268.54 43.09 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 344.15 386.69 79.21 287.48 39.77 February : 345.95 389.03 79.59 287.57 41.27 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 183.04 188.46 54.11 183.50 5.81 2002/03 (Est.) : 186.75 192.55 55.57 187.92 5.50 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 199.75 205.11 60.56 199.82 5.39 February : 199.56 205.06 60.36 199.31 5.58 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 92.44 101.24 33.96 92.19 8.06 2002/03 (Est.) : 94.34 102.40 36.49 95.54 6.07 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 100.70 106.83 37.36 99.92 6.37 February : 100.84 106.90 37.76 99.81 6.23 : : United States Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 89.83 98.30 29.97 50.62 6.87 2002/03 (Est.) : 83.78 91.20 29.45 47.52 5.84 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 75.64 82.33 25.37 43.74 4.39 February : 75.64 82.28 25.36 43.70 4.37 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 38.89 40.34 7.06 33.00 0.29 2002/03 (Est.) : 36.64 38.05 5.65 32.16 0.24 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 33.79 35.68 4.03 31.42 0.23 February : 33.77 35.66 4.03 31.40 0.23 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 9.64 12.88 1.55 10.03 1.31 2002/03 (Est.) : 9.22 12.05 1.24 9.92 0.89 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 8.49 11.20 0.64 9.93 0.64 February : 8.47 11.19 0.64 9.92 0.64 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 235.29 262.62 34.84 214.06 30.13 2002/03 (Est.) : 245.31 274.89 42.76 221.02 37.25 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 268.51 304.36 53.85 243.73 35.38 February : 270.30 306.76 54.23 243.88 36.90 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 144.16 148.12 47.05 150.50 5.52 2002/03 (Est.) : 150.11 154.50 49.92 155.76 5.25 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 165.96 169.43 56.53 168.40 5.16 February : 165.79 169.40 56.33 167.91 5.35 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 82.80 88.36 32.41 82.16 6.76 2002/03 (Est.) : 85.12 90.35 35.25 85.61 5.18 2003/04 (Proj.) : January : 92.22 95.62 36.72 89.99 5.73 February : 92.36 95.71 37.12 89.88 5.60 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-407-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 59.6 60.5 61.7 61.7 Harvested : 48.6 45.9 52.8 52.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 40.2 35.3 44.2 44.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 876 777 491 491 Production : 1,957 1,619 2,337 2,337 Imports : 108 77 75 75 Supply, total : 2,941 2,473 2,903 2,903 Food : 926 918 910 910 Seed : 84 84 84 84 Feed and residual : 191 126 225 225 Domestic, total : 1,201 1,128 1,219 1,219 Exports : 962 854 1,125 1,150 Use, total : 2,164 1,982 2,344 2,369 Ending stocks : 777 491 559 534 CCC inventory : 99 66 60 60 Free stocks : 678 425 499 474 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.78 3.56 3.25- 3.45 3.30- 3.40 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2002/03 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 612 354 332 241 79 1,619 Supply, total 3/ : 975 607 424 325 142 2,473 Domestic use : 480 204 264 103 77 1,128 Exports : 307 258 105 147 37 854 Use, total : 787 462 369 250 114 1,982 Ending stocks, total : 188 145 55 75 28 491 : 2003/04 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,063 500 379 298 97 2,337 Supply, total 3/ : 1,255 660 456 381 151 2,903 Domestic use : 520 246 251 116 85 1,219 Exports : 520 260 145 185 40 1,150 Use, total : 1,040 506 396 302 125 2,369 Ending stocks, total : February : 215 153 61 79 26 534 January : 226 153 69 83 28 559 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-407-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 95.4 98.7 98.1 98.1 Harvested : 83.6 82.8 85.8 85.8 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.13 2.96 3.21 3.21 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 52.7 45.0 30.9 30.9 Production : 261.7 244.9 275.5 275.5 Imports : 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.1 Supply, total : 316.8 292.3 308.8 308.5 Feed and residual : 159.2 150.6 154.8 155.1 Food, seed & industrial : 57.4 64.9 68.5 69.2 Domestic, total : 216.6 215.5 223.3 224.3 Exports : 55.1 45.9 56.1 56.7 Use, total : 271.7 261.4 279.3 281.0 Ending stocks, total : 45.0 30.9 29.5 27.5 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Free stocks : 44.9 30.8 29.4 27.4 Outstanding loans : 5.6 7.1 8.0 8.0 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 75.8 79.1 78.7 78.7 Harvested : 68.8 69.3 71.1 71.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.2 130.0 142.2 142.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,899 1,596 1,087 1,087 Production : 9,507 9,008 10,114 10,114 Imports : 10 14 10 10 Supply, total : 11,416 10,619 11,211 11,211 Feed and residual : 5,868 5,599 5,775 5,800 Food, seed & industrial : 2,046 2,340 2,480 2,510 Domestic, total : 7,915 7,939 8,255 8,310 Exports : 1,905 1,592 1,975 2,000 Use, total : 9,820 9,532 10,230 10,310 Ending stocks, total : 1,596 1,087 981 901 CCC inventory : 6 5 3 3 Free stocks : 1,590 1,082 978 898 Outstanding loans : 213 277 310 310 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.97 2.32 2.15- 2.45 2.35- 2.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-407-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.3 9.6 9.4 9.4 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.6 7.3 7.8 7.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 50.7 52.7 52.7 Beginning stocks : 42 61 43 43 Production : 515 370 411 411 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 556 431 454 454 Feed and residual : 230 178 165 165 Food, seed & industrial : 23 24 25 25 Total domestic : 253 202 190 190 Exports : 242 186 210 210 Use, total : 495 388 400 400 Ending stocks, total : 61 43 54 54 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 2.32 2.20- 2.50 2.35- 2.55 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.3 4.1 4.7 4.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.2 54.9 58.9 58.9 Beginning stocks : 106 93 69 69 Production : 249 227 276 276 Imports : 24 18 25 15 Supply, total : 380 338 370 360 Feed and residual : 88 65 75 65 Food, seed & industrial : 172 173 173 172 Total domestic : 260 238 248 237 Exports : 26 30 25 25 Use, total : 287 269 273 262 Ending stocks, total : 93 69 97 98 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.22 2.72 2.70- 3.00 2.80- 3.00 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.4 5.0 4.6 4.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.4 56.7 65.0 65.0 Beginning stocks : 73 63 50 50 Production : 117 119 145 145 Imports : 96 95 95 90 Supply, total : 286 277 289 284 Feed and residual : 148 152 140 135 Food, seed & industrial : 72 72 73 73 Total domestic : 220 224 213 208 Exports : 3 3 2 2 Use, total : 223 227 215 210 Ending stocks, total : 63 50 74 74 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.59 1.81 1.35- 1.55 1.40- 1.50 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-407-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.33 3.24 3.02 3.02 Harvested : 3.31 3.21 3.00 3.00 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,496 6,578 6,645 6,645 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 28.5 39.0 26.8 26.8 Production : 215.3 211.0 199.2 199.2 Imports : 13.2 14.8 15.5 15.0 Supply, total : 256.9 264.8 241.4 240.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 123.3 113.4 122.0 122.0 Exports, total 4/ : 94.7 124.6 97.0 94.0 Rough : 32.2 43.0 44.0 36.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 62.5 81.5 53.0 58.0 Use, total : 218.0 238.0 219.0 216.0 Ending stocks : 39.0 26.8 22.4 24.9 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.8 68.3 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.25 4.49 7.00- 7.50 7.10- 7.40 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.70 2.51 2.31 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,213 6,260 6,451 6,451 Beginning stocks : 11.6 26.8 15.7 15.7 Production : 167.6 157.2 149.0 149.0 Supply, total 7/ : 188.3 194.1 175.2 174.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.7 79.2 87.8 87.8 Exports 8/ : 73.8 99.2 76.0 74.0 Use, total : 161.6 178.4 163.8 161.8 Ending stocks : 26.8 15.7 11.4 13.2 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.62 0.70 0.69 0.69 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,733 7,729 7,299 7,299 Beginning stocks : 15.6 10.7 9.3 9.3 Production : 47.7 53.7 50.1 50.1 Supply, total 7/ : 67.1 68.9 64.4 64.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 35.5 34.3 34.2 34.2 Exports 8/ : 20.9 25.3 21.0 20.0 Use, total : 56.4 59.6 55.2 54.2 Ending stocks : 10.7 9.3 9.2 9.9 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-407-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.1 73.9 73.4 73.4 Harvested : 73.0 72.4 72.3 72.3 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 39.6 38.0 33.4 33.4 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 248 208 178 178 Production : 2,891 2,749 2,418 2,418 Imports : 2 5 8 8 Supply, total : 3,141 2,962 2,604 2,604 Crushings : 1,700 1,615 1,455 1,455 Exports : 1,064 1,045 900 900 Seed : 90 89 90 90 Residual : 79 34 33 33 Use, total : 2,933 2,784 2,479 2,479 Ending stocks : 208 178 125 125 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.38 5.53 6.90- 7.60 6.95 - 7.55 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,767 2,358 1,491 1,491 Production : 18,898 18,438 16,380 16,380 3/ Imports : 46 46 235 235 Supply, total : 21,711 20,843 18,106 18,106 Domestic : 16,833 17,091 16,250 16,250 Exports : 2,519 2,261 850 850 Use, total : 19,353 19,352 17,100 17,100 Ending stocks : 2,358 1,491 1,006 1,006 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 16.46 22.04 27.50- 28.00- : 29.50 30.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 383 240 220 220 Production : 40,292 38,213 34,755 34,755 3/ Imports : 143 166 475 475 Supply, total : 40,819 38,619 35,450 35,450 Domestic : 33,070 32,386 31,000 31,000 Exports : 7,508 6,013 4,250 4,250 Use, total : 40,579 38,399 35,250 35,250 Ending stocks : 240 220 200 200 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.73 181.57 225.00- 230.00- : 245.00 250.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,460 million bushels. WASDE-407-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :===================== : : Estimate : January February ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 2,180 1,419 1,304 1,259 Production 2/ : 7,900 8,380 8,948 8,930 Beet sugar : 3,915 4,415 4,852 4,824 Cane sugar 3/ : 3,985 3,965 4,096 4,106 Imports : 1,535 1,732 1,584 1,584 TRQ 4/ : 1,158 1,212 1,224 1,224 Other program 5/ : 296 488 325 325 Other 6/ : 81 32 35 35 Supply, total : 11,615 11,531 11,836 11,773 : Exports 7/ : 137 142 160 160 Sales for dom. use 8/ : 10,082 9,975 9,675 9,675 Food : 9,894 9,767 9,450 9,465 Other 9/ : 188 208 225 210 Miscellaneous 10/ : -23 155 0 0 Use, total : 10,195 10,272 9,835 9,835 Ending stocks : 1,419 1,259 2,001 1,938 : Stocks to use ratio : 13.9 12.3 20.3 19.7 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service and Bureau of the Census. 2/ Production for 2003/04 is based on processors' projections and estimates compiled by the Farm Service Agency. 3/ Production by state for 2002/03 (projected 2003/04): FL 2,129 (2,166); HI 276 (286); LA 1,369 (1,472); TX 191 (182); PR 0 (0). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2003/04, includes shortfall of 50,000 tons. 5/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/ Includes high-tier and other. 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Indicates change of ownership, not necessarily delivery. 9/ Transfer to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-407-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.77 13.96 13.48 13.48 Harvested : 13.83 12.43 12.06 12.06 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 705 665 725 725 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 6.00 7.45 5.38 5.38 Production : 20.30 17.21 18.22 18.22 Imports : 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.05 Supply, total : 26.32 24.72 23.66 23.66 Domestic use : 7.70 7.27 6.20 6.20 Exports : 11.00 11.90 13.20 13.20 Use, total : 18.70 19.17 19.40 19.40 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.18 0.17 0.01 0.01 Ending stocks : 7.45 5.38 4.25 4.25 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 29.8 44.5 62.9 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August-December 2003. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2003/04 is 22.0 percent. WASDE-407-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 205.73 581.57 108.16 107.86 586.34 108.12 200.96 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.20 32.70 26.19 21.15 Total foreign : 181.88 528.31 105.24 102.66 553.64 81.93 179.81 Major exporters 4/ : 27.51 151.79 10.25 52.98 108.98 54.25 26.32 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.89 10.08 1.14 Australia : 4.54 24.85 0.08 2.70 5.43 16.41 7.63 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 3.69 7.57 16.27 6.73 EU-15 : 12.73 90.86 9.82 46.50 91.10 11.49 10.82 Major importers 5/ : 108.61 142.32 48.95 12.45 204.20 3.65 92.03 Brazil : 0.65 3.25 7.01 0.40 10.00 0.01 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.48 0.31 29.37 0.24 5.66 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.24 0.40 19.80 0.50 2.59 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.83 1.38 8.67 0.34 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.90 1.69 10.94 30.54 4.17 6.71 India : 21.50 69.68 0.03 0.50 65.12 3.09 23.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.14 3.56 20.46 69.12 13.81 17.14 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.63 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.48 Kazakhstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.09 3.00 13.44 5.49 2.96 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 200.96 566.39 106.73 112.90 601.78 107.36 165.57 United States : 21.15 44.06 2.11 3.44 30.70 23.25 13.37 Total foreign : 179.81 522.33 104.63 109.46 571.09 84.11 152.20 Major exporters 4/ : 26.32 142.45 13.20 58.86 116.62 41.62 23.73 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.16 6.76 1.53 Australia : 7.63 10.06 0.29 3.38 6.10 9.15 2.72 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.38 4.12 8.26 9.40 5.65 EU-15 : 10.82 103.89 12.53 51.28 97.10 16.32 13.83 Major importers 5/ : 92.03 138.75 46.16 10.20 198.85 4.64 73.45 Brazil : 0.90 2.94 6.73 0.45 9.90 0.01 0.66 China : 76.59 90.29 0.43 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.39 N. Africa 6/ : 5.66 11.17 18.69 0.30 29.47 0.30 5.76 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.18 0.40 18.38 1.19 1.43 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 0.00 9.32 1.70 9.16 0.37 1.39 Selected other : East. Europe : 6.71 30.47 1.89 9.99 29.44 4.65 4.98 India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.29 4.85 15.70 FSU-12 8/ : 17.14 96.91 3.65 23.96 73.80 24.86 19.06 Russia : 6.48 50.55 0.52 16.00 39.32 12.62 5.61 Kazakhstan : 5.20 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 5.51 6.66 Ukraine : 2.96 20.55 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.25 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-407-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 165.44 552.66 97.62 102.81 590.84 101.32 127.26 February : 165.57 551.77 98.77 102.16 591.40 103.62 125.95 United States : January : 13.37 63.59 2.04 6.12 33.18 30.62 15.21 February : 13.37 63.59 2.04 6.12 33.18 31.30 14.53 Total foreign : January : 152.07 489.07 95.58 96.69 557.66 70.70 112.05 February : 152.20 488.18 96.73 96.04 558.22 72.32 111.41 Major exporters 4/ : January : 23.76 151.50 5.17 56.08 113.68 48.00 18.75 February : 23.73 152.20 5.22 56.08 113.68 48.50 18.97 Argentina Jan : 1.77 12.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 7.50 1.50 Feb : 1.53 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 8.00 1.76 Australia Jan : 2.94 24.50 0.01 3.50 6.20 17.50 3.75 Feb : 2.72 24.50 0.01 3.50 6.20 17.50 3.53 Canada Jan : 5.65 23.50 0.15 3.50 7.70 16.00 5.60 Feb : 5.65 23.50 0.20 3.50 7.70 16.00 5.65 EU-15 Jan : 13.40 91.00 5.00 49.00 94.50 7.00 7.90 Feb : 13.83 90.70 5.00 49.00 94.50 7.00 8.03 Major importers 5/ : January : 73.38 142.54 40.45 9.45 197.71 3.89 54.77 February : 73.45 141.84 40.95 9.25 197.81 4.89 53.54 Brazil Jan : 0.66 5.20 5.60 0.35 10.00 0.50 0.96 Feb : 0.66 5.50 5.60 0.35 10.00 1.00 0.76 China Jan : 60.39 87.00 2.00 6.00 104.50 1.70 43.19 Feb : 60.39 86.00 2.00 6.00 104.50 2.20 41.69 N. Africa 6/ Jan : 5.68 15.98 13.10 0.30 29.48 0.21 5.07 Feb : 5.76 15.98 13.60 0.30 29.58 0.21 5.55 Pakistan Jan : 1.43 18.20 0.50 0.40 18.75 0.20 1.18 Feb : 1.43 18.20 0.50 0.40 18.75 0.20 1.18 SE Asia 7/ Jan : 1.40 0.00 9.05 1.55 8.95 0.33 1.17 Feb : 1.39 0.00 9.05 1.35 8.95 0.33 1.16 Selected other : East. Europe Jan : 4.99 20.84 5.16 8.32 27.35 1.23 2.41 Feb : 4.98 20.87 5.66 8.32 27.45 1.23 2.83 India Jan : 15.70 69.30 0.05 0.60 71.30 4.00 9.75 Feb : 15.70 69.30 0.05 0.60 71.30 4.00 9.75 FSU-12 8/ Jan : 19.11 61.88 7.34 17.33 66.03 10.21 12.09 Feb : 19.06 61.31 7.14 17.33 65.61 9.71 12.19 Russia Jan : 5.61 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 1.61 Feb : 5.61 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 1.61 Kazakhstan Jan : 6.66 12.00 0.02 2.00 6.10 6.50 6.07 Feb : 6.66 12.00 0.02 2.00 6.10 6.00 6.57 Ukraine Jan : 3.25 4.00 3.50 0.73 10.23 0.10 0.43 Feb : 3.25 3.60 3.50 0.73 10.03 0.10 0.23 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-407-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 188.16 891.26 101.40 596.82 903.95 103.66 175.47 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 159.33 216.92 55.15 45.05 Total foreign : 135.46 629.40 98.84 437.49 687.03 48.51 130.42 Major exporters 4/ : 7.41 64.34 5.32 35.78 48.38 19.98 8.72 Argentina : 1.27 18.73 0.00 5.47 7.63 11.38 0.98 Australia : 1.31 12.56 0.05 5.45 6.72 4.94 2.26 Canada : 4.33 22.60 4.11 20.69 25.00 2.52 3.52 Major importers 5/ : 27.73 159.01 68.34 161.69 219.20 5.58 30.29 EU-15 : 15.83 106.21 4.24 77.79 103.61 4.99 17.69 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.95 15.52 20.15 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.58 27.17 9.06 19.33 35.37 0.16 4.27 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.22 3.82 13.55 18.96 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.45 8.85 6.74 9.35 0.00 1.17 Selected other : China : 83.12 122.27 1.96 94.21 133.08 8.63 65.65 East. Europe : 2.69 51.02 1.53 36.04 46.14 3.89 5.21 FSU-12 6/ : 5.95 61.76 1.00 33.08 50.67 6.63 11.42 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.74 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.74 Ukraine : 1.93 17.03 0.10 9.04 12.97 3.49 2.61 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 175.47 871.51 101.93 590.76 902.03 103.88 144.95 United States : 45.05 245.03 2.56 150.72 215.83 45.87 30.94 Total foreign : 130.42 626.48 99.37 440.04 686.20 58.01 114.01 Major exporters 4/ : 8.72 56.01 4.69 32.02 44.70 17.05 7.67 Argentina : 0.98 19.44 0.03 5.09 7.22 11.80 1.43 Australia : 2.26 6.55 0.01 4.16 5.47 2.31 1.04 Canada : 3.52 19.89 4.24 18.48 22.81 1.70 3.14 Major importers 5/ : 30.29 157.38 69.93 160.15 218.85 6.93 31.82 EU-15 : 17.69 105.62 4.95 76.53 103.24 6.61 18.41 Japan : 2.34 0.22 20.33 15.65 20.48 0.00 2.41 Mexico : 4.27 26.49 8.78 19.58 35.62 0.01 3.91 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.97 4.12 13.62 18.93 0.31 0.91 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.94 6.66 9.24 0.00 1.25 Selected other : China : 65.65 129.15 1.82 95.03 136.27 15.34 45.01 East. Europe : 5.21 50.47 1.45 38.05 47.98 3.44 5.71 FSU-12 6/ : 11.42 60.58 0.72 34.91 52.56 8.16 12.00 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.45 29.85 3.44 7.20 Ukraine : 2.61 17.10 0.22 9.28 13.25 3.99 2.68 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-407-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 144.51 883.26 100.43 606.26 927.30 100.34 100.47 February : 144.95 884.14 100.89 605.97 929.25 101.73 99.84 United States : January : 30.94 275.70 2.54 154.90 223.59 56.08 29.51 February : 30.94 275.70 2.23 155.23 224.67 56.72 27.49 Total foreign : January : 113.57 607.56 97.90 451.36 703.71 44.26 70.96 February : 114.01 608.44 98.66 450.74 704.58 45.02 72.35 Major exporters 4/ : January : 7.32 62.85 2.70 33.56 46.63 18.92 7.32 February : 7.67 62.35 2.80 33.99 47.01 18.82 6.99 Argentina Jan : 1.24 15.80 0.01 4.68 6.84 9.22 1.00 Feb : 1.43 15.80 0.01 4.78 6.99 9.22 1.03 Australia Jan : 1.05 12.26 0.00 5.44 6.76 4.95 1.60 Feb : 1.04 12.26 0.00 5.44 6.76 4.95 1.59 Canada Jan : 3.14 26.31 2.06 19.10 23.75 3.73 4.04 Feb : 3.14 26.31 2.06 19.43 23.98 3.63 3.91 Major importers 5/ : January : 32.99 146.84 69.68 162.28 221.10 3.56 24.86 February : 31.82 146.45 70.03 162.19 220.59 3.76 23.96 EU-15 Jan : 19.59 92.75 5.91 77.55 104.11 3.41 10.74 Feb : 18.41 92.36 6.41 77.95 104.11 3.41 9.66 Japan Jan : 2.41 0.25 19.59 15.06 19.89 0.00 2.37 Feb : 2.41 0.25 19.59 15.06 19.89 0.00 2.37 Mexico Jan : 3.91 25.45 9.73 19.41 35.45 0.05 3.59 Feb : 3.91 25.45 9.73 19.41 35.45 0.05 3.59 Southeast Asia Jan : 0.90 15.95 3.86 14.20 19.58 0.10 1.03 Feb : 0.91 15.95 3.76 13.76 19.12 0.30 1.20 South Korea Jan : 1.25 0.38 9.71 7.41 10.08 0.00 1.25 Feb : 1.25 0.38 9.71 7.41 10.08 0.00 1.25 Selected other : China Jan : 43.56 121.30 2.11 95.96 138.60 8.03 20.33 Feb : 45.01 121.30 2.11 95.96 138.60 8.05 21.76 East. Europe Jan : 5.64 41.75 2.04 35.32 45.17 1.47 2.79 Feb : 5.71 41.67 2.20 35.47 45.27 1.42 2.90 FSU-12 6/ Jan : 11.66 56.58 1.41 40.10 58.41 6.12 5.12 Feb : 12.00 54.98 1.31 38.23 56.49 6.50 5.30 Russia Jan : 7.20 31.10 0.90 21.40 33.50 3.15 2.55 Feb : 7.20 30.30 0.90 21.00 33.10 3.15 2.15 Ukraine Jan : 2.61 16.30 0.32 11.70 15.67 2.34 1.22 Feb : 2.68 15.60 0.22 10.25 14.10 2.71 1.69 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-407-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 151.53 598.80 74.42 433.12 621.69 76.17 128.63 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.26 149.07 201.05 48.38 40.55 Total foreign : 103.29 357.31 74.17 284.05 420.64 27.79 88.08 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 24.75 0.93 6.60 12.60 11.94 2.27 Argentina : 0.64 14.70 0.00 2.65 4.15 10.86 0.33 South Africa : 0.49 10.05 0.92 3.95 8.45 1.07 1.94 Major importers 5/ : 10.11 81.20 45.39 87.05 125.70 0.66 10.34 EU-15 : 1.66 39.45 2.91 32.60 42.20 0.06 1.75 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.68 20.40 4.08 8.40 23.60 0.16 3.40 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.07 3.82 13.42 18.82 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.62 6.58 8.74 0.00 1.17 Selected other : Brazil : 1.65 35.50 0.43 30.50 34.50 2.05 1.02 Canada : 0.88 8.39 3.95 9.67 11.97 0.20 1.06 China : 82.64 114.09 0.04 92.00 123.30 8.61 64.86 East. Europe : 1.50 26.75 1.07 20.09 23.57 3.01 2.74 FSU-12 6/ : 1.45 6.81 0.65 5.70 7.04 0.37 1.50 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.53 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.08 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 128.63 602.97 75.92 430.88 628.88 77.83 102.72 United States : 40.55 228.80 0.37 142.22 201.67 40.45 27.60 Total foreign : 88.08 374.16 75.55 288.66 427.21 37.38 75.12 Major exporters 4/ : 2.27 25.18 0.27 6.60 12.65 12.20 2.86 Argentina : 0.33 15.50 0.02 2.50 4.00 11.00 0.84 South Africa : 1.94 9.68 0.25 4.10 8.65 1.20 2.02 Major importers 5/ : 10.34 79.40 48.48 86.45 125.37 0.51 12.35 EU-15 : 1.75 39.45 3.80 31.10 40.80 0.20 4.00 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.87 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.46 Mexico : 3.40 19.28 5.28 9.50 24.70 0.01 3.25 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.67 4.12 13.34 18.64 0.30 0.90 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.57 8.78 0.00 1.25 Selected other : Brazil : 1.02 45.00 0.35 32.50 37.00 5.00 4.37 Canada : 1.06 9.00 3.95 10.28 12.58 0.31 1.11 China : 64.86 121.30 0.03 93.00 126.50 15.24 44.44 East. Europe : 2.74 27.48 0.75 21.28 24.66 2.48 3.83 FSU-12 6/ : 1.50 8.44 0.23 6.34 7.72 0.86 1.60 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-407-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 102.30 607.12 76.24 439.52 641.93 76.09 67.49 February : 102.72 609.06 77.05 440.82 644.56 76.87 67.23 United States : January : 27.60 256.91 0.25 146.69 209.69 50.17 24.91 February : 27.60 256.90 0.25 147.33 211.08 50.80 22.88 Total foreign : January : 74.70 350.21 75.99 292.82 432.24 25.92 42.58 February : 75.12 352.16 76.80 293.49 433.47 26.07 44.35 Major exporters 4/ : January : 2.47 20.50 0.46 6.60 12.70 9.50 1.23 February : 2.86 20.00 0.56 6.70 12.80 9.50 1.12 Argentina Jan : 0.60 12.50 0.01 2.50 4.00 8.50 0.61 Feb : 0.84 12.50 0.01 2.60 4.10 8.50 0.75 South Africa Jan : 1.87 8.00 0.45 4.10 8.70 1.00 0.62 Feb : 2.02 7.50 0.55 4.10 8.70 1.00 0.37 Major importers 5/ : January : 13.41 71.19 50.16 84.88 123.87 0.25 10.65 February : 12.35 70.92 50.56 84.84 123.41 0.45 9.97 EU-15 Jan : 5.08 30.50 4.00 27.60 37.20 0.10 2.28 Feb : 4.00 30.23 4.50 28.00 37.20 0.10 1.43 Japan Jan : 1.46 0.00 16.50 12.00 16.50 0.00 1.46 Feb : 1.46 0.00 16.50 12.00 16.50 0.00 1.46 Mexico Jan : 3.25 19.00 6.50 10.50 25.70 0.05 3.00 Feb : 3.25 19.00 6.50 10.50 25.70 0.05 3.00 Southeast Asia Jan : 0.89 15.67 3.86 13.93 19.30 0.10 1.02 Feb : 0.90 15.67 3.76 13.49 18.84 0.30 1.20 South Korea Jan : 1.25 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.25 Feb : 1.25 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.25 Selected other : Brazil Jan : 4.87 40.00 0.30 34.00 38.00 4.50 2.67 Feb : 4.37 42.00 0.40 34.00 39.00 4.50 3.27 Canada Jan : 1.11 9.60 2.00 9.00 11.50 0.30 0.91 Feb : 1.11 9.60 2.00 9.00 11.50 0.30 0.91 China Jan : 42.99 114.00 0.10 94.00 129.10 8.00 19.99 Feb : 44.44 114.00 0.10 94.00 129.10 8.00 21.44 East. Europe Jan : 3.73 21.50 0.99 20.32 23.75 0.98 1.49 Feb : 3.83 21.42 1.15 20.47 23.85 0.93 1.62 FSU-12 6/ Jan : 1.52 11.08 0.60 8.93 10.41 1.53 1.27 Feb : 1.60 11.28 0.60 9.12 10.60 1.53 1.35 Russia Jan : 0.12 2.00 0.50 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.12 Feb : 0.11 2.00 0.50 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-407-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 3/ : 149.56 398.42 25.75 411.17 27.03 136.82 United States : 0.89 6.71 0.42 3.85 2.95 1.22 Total foreign : 148.68 391.71 25.33 407.32 24.07 135.60 Major exporters 4/ : 30.39 135.50 0.06 117.05 18.42 30.48 India : 25.05 93.08 0.00 87.35 6.30 24.48 Pakistan : 0.48 3.88 0.00 2.64 1.63 0.10 Thailand : 1.90 17.50 0.02 9.77 7.25 2.40 Vietnam : 2.96 21.04 0.04 17.30 3.25 3.49 Major importers 5/ : 12.85 54.18 12.36 66.89 0.43 12.07 Brazil : 1.17 7.07 0.63 8.30 0.03 0.54 EU-15 : 0.89 1.62 0.92 2.22 0.34 0.88 Indonesia : 4.61 32.96 3.50 36.38 0.00 4.68 Nigeria : 1.02 2.10 1.91 4.35 0.00 0.68 Philippines : 2.80 8.45 1.20 9.04 0.00 3.41 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 2.13 1.40 3.20 5.18 0.06 1.50 Selected other : Burma : 1.38 10.44 0.00 9.90 1.00 0.92 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.07 0.09 0.38 0.44 0.00 0.10 China : 94.10 124.31 0.31 134.58 1.96 82.17 Egypt : 0.89 3.58 0.03 3.15 0.47 0.86 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.66 8.92 0.05 1.59 Mexico : 0.16 0.19 0.54 0.68 0.00 0.20 South Korea : 1.28 5.52 0.12 5.10 0.13 1.68 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 3/ : 136.82 380.85 25.75 411.40 28.36 106.27 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.54 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 135.60 374.31 25.27 407.86 24.50 105.44 Major exporters 4/ : 30.48 118.58 0.04 114.05 18.39 16.66 India : 24.48 75.70 0.00 83.68 5.44 11.06 Pakistan : 0.10 4.23 0.00 2.65 1.60 0.08 Thailand : 2.40 17.12 0.00 9.92 7.55 2.05 Vietnam : 3.49 21.53 0.04 17.80 3.80 3.47 Major importers 5/ : 12.07 55.18 11.81 67.04 0.42 11.59 Brazil : 0.54 6.94 1.25 8.10 0.03 0.59 EU-15 : 0.88 1.64 0.93 2.23 0.33 0.89 Indonesia : 4.68 33.41 2.75 36.50 0.00 4.34 Nigeria : 0.68 2.20 1.82 4.09 0.00 0.61 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 1.50 2.15 2.54 5.08 0.06 1.05 Selected other : Burma : 0.92 10.44 0.00 10.10 0.40 0.86 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.10 0.09 0.42 0.48 0.00 0.13 China : 82.17 122.18 0.26 134.80 2.58 67.22 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.55 0.79 Japan : 1.59 8.09 0.70 8.79 0.20 1.39 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.48 0.70 0.00 0.11 South Korea : 1.68 4.93 0.13 5.07 0.57 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-407-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 106.90 391.02 23.73 413.93 25.11 84.00 February : 106.27 390.43 23.72 414.11 25.01 82.60 United States : January : 0.83 6.32 0.49 3.85 3.08 0.71 February : 0.83 6.32 0.48 3.85 2.99 0.79 Total foreign : January : 106.07 384.70 23.24 410.07 22.03 83.29 February : 105.44 384.11 23.24 410.25 22.03 81.81 Major exporters 4/ : January : 17.46 132.70 0.04 116.10 16.15 17.95 February : 16.66 132.95 0.04 116.10 16.40 17.15 India Jan : 12.00 89.00 0.00 85.00 2.50 13.50 Feb : 11.06 89.00 0.00 85.00 2.50 12.56 Pakistan Jan : 0.08 4.90 0.00 2.70 1.65 0.63 Feb : 0.08 4.90 0.00 2.70 1.65 0.63 Thailand Jan : 2.10 17.80 0.00 10.20 8.00 1.70 Feb : 2.05 17.80 0.00 10.20 8.25 1.40 Vietnam Jan : 3.27 21.00 0.04 18.20 4.00 2.11 Feb : 3.47 21.25 0.04 18.20 4.00 2.56 Major importers 5/ : January : 11.56 57.27 10.45 67.88 0.44 10.96 February : 11.59 57.67 10.45 67.88 0.44 11.40 Brazil Jan : 0.56 7.50 0.50 8.30 0.05 0.21 Feb : 0.59 7.90 0.50 8.30 0.05 0.64 EU-15 Jan : 0.89 1.67 0.93 2.23 0.33 0.93 Feb : 0.89 1.67 0.93 2.23 0.33 0.93 Indonesia Jan : 4.34 34.51 2.00 36.65 0.00 4.20 Feb : 4.34 34.51 2.00 36.65 0.00 4.20 Nigeria Jan : 0.61 2.20 1.25 3.56 0.00 0.50 Feb : 0.61 2.20 1.25 3.56 0.00 0.50 Philippines Jan : 3.81 8.84 1.35 10.25 0.00 3.75 Feb : 3.81 8.84 1.35 10.25 0.00 3.75 Sel. Mideast 6/Jan : 1.05 2.27 3.25 5.33 0.06 1.18 Feb : 1.05 2.27 3.25 5.33 0.06 1.18 Selected other : Burma Jan : 0.86 10.44 0.00 10.20 0.50 0.60 Feb : 0.86 10.44 0.00 10.20 0.50 0.60 C. Am & Car. 7/Jan : 0.13 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.13 Feb : 0.13 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.13 China Jan : 67.27 116.50 0.25 135.00 2.25 46.77 Feb : 67.22 115.00 0.28 135.00 2.00 45.50 Egypt Jan : 0.69 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.59 Feb : 0.79 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.69 Japan Jan : 1.39 7.08 0.70 8.66 0.20 0.32 Feb : 1.39 7.08 0.70 8.66 0.20 0.32 Mexico Jan : 0.11 0.11 0.63 0.73 0.00 0.12 Feb : 0.11 0.11 0.63 0.73 0.00 0.12 South Korea Jan : 1.10 4.45 0.16 5.00 0.10 0.61 Feb : 1.10 4.45 0.16 5.00 0.10 0.61 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-407-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World : 42.62 98.52 29.38 94.55 28.94 0.10 46.93 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.70 11.00 0.18 7.45 Total foreign : 36.62 78.22 29.36 86.86 17.94 -0.08 39.48 Major exporters 4/ : 8.78 27.63 1.40 12.65 14.14 -0.09 11.12 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.02 4.15 0.27 0.91 3.78 -0.14 2.90 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.10 -0.16 2.21 Major importers : 26.11 47.45 23.59 67.98 2.70 0.01 26.45 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.80 0.67 -0.15 2.42 India : 3.77 12.30 1.95 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.69 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 2.06 2.20 0.09 0.03 0.72 China : 14.35 24.40 0.45 26.25 0.34 0.00 12.61 Europe : 1.60 2.62 4.61 5.53 1.36 0.06 1.88 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.77 0.21 9.59 8.98 0.05 0.08 2.46 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 Thailand : 0.38 0.10 2.06 1.90 0.00 0.03 0.61 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World : 46.93 88.27 30.45 98.07 30.56 0.25 36.77 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.38 Total foreign : 39.48 71.06 30.38 90.80 18.66 0.08 31.38 Major exporters 4/ : 11.12 24.20 1.44 14.11 14.18 0.01 8.45 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.40 0.23 0.03 2.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.94 6.83 3/ 1.82 5.30 0.00 1.65 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 4.12 3/ 0.21 3.81 0.05 1.54 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.90 2.72 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.89 Australia : 2.21 1.70 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.23 Major importers : 26.45 43.81 24.25 70.30 3.30 0.06 20.85 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.45 0.49 -0.10 3.03 India : 4.69 10.60 1.40 13.30 0.05 0.00 3.34 Mexico : 0.72 0.19 2.30 2.10 0.05 0.03 1.04 China : 12.61 22.60 3.13 29.50 0.75 0.00 8.08 Europe : 1.88 2.19 4.05 5.04 1.59 0.06 1.42 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.18 2.26 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.29 Selected Asia 8/ : 2.46 0.16 8.89 8.96 0.06 0.08 2.42 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.38 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.94 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-407-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World : January : 36.97 92.20 32.40 97.11 32.05 0.04 32.36 February : 36.77 92.65 32.37 97.24 32.02 0.04 32.49 United States : January : 5.38 18.22 0.05 6.20 13.20 0.01 4.25 February : 5.38 18.22 0.05 6.20 13.20 0.01 4.25 Total foreign : January : 31.59 73.97 32.35 90.91 18.85 0.03 28.11 February : 31.38 74.43 32.32 91.04 18.82 0.03 28.24 Major exporters 4/ : January : 8.62 24.22 2.18 14.19 13.27 -0.04 7.60 February : 8.45 24.38 2.64 14.43 13.41 -0.04 7.67 Pakistan Jan : 2.46 7.60 1.45 9.40 0.05 0.03 2.03 Feb : 2.26 7.60 1.90 9.60 0.05 0.03 2.08 Central Asia 5/Jan : 1.63 6.66 0.01 1.90 4.89 0.00 1.50 Feb : 1.65 6.76 0.01 1.90 4.97 0.00 1.54 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jan : 1.54 4.72 3/ 0.20 4.48 0.00 1.57 Feb : 1.54 4.77 3/ 0.20 4.56 0.00 1.54 S. Hemis 7/ Jan : 1.89 2.82 0.33 1.12 2.44 -0.08 1.56 Feb : 1.89 2.84 0.34 1.11 2.48 -0.08 1.54 Australia Jan : 1.23 1.20 3/ 0.08 1.65 -0.10 0.81 Feb : 1.23 1.30 3/ 0.08 1.75 -0.10 0.81 Major importers Jan : 20.86 46.53 25.34 70.23 3.94 0.06 18.50 Feb : 20.85 46.84 25.01 70.13 3.93 0.06 18.59 Brazil Jan : 3.03 5.20 0.20 3.70 1.65 -0.10 3.18 Feb : 3.03 5.20 0.30 3.70 1.65 -0.10 3.28 India Jan : 3.34 12.70 1.00 13.20 0.40 0.00 3.44 Feb : 3.34 12.70 1.00 13.20 0.40 0.00 3.44 Mexico Jan : 1.04 0.30 1.60 2.10 0.13 0.03 0.69 Feb : 1.04 0.31 1.60 2.10 0.13 0.03 0.70 China Jan : 8.08 22.00 7.00 30.20 0.10 0.00 6.78 Feb : 8.08 22.40 7.00 30.50 0.20 0.00 6.78 Europe Jan : 1.44 2.06 3.94 4.79 1.40 0.06 1.19 Feb : 1.42 1.96 3.69 4.55 1.29 0.06 1.18 Russia Jan : 0.22 3/ 1.55 1.55 0.00 0.00 0.22 Feb : 0.22 3/ 1.45 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Jan : 1.29 4.10 1.85 6.00 0.20 0.00 1.04 Feb : 1.29 4.10 1.85 6.00 0.20 0.00 1.04 Sel. Asia 8/ Jan : 2.42 0.17 8.19 8.69 0.06 0.08 1.95 Feb : 2.42 0.17 8.12 8.63 0.06 0.08 1.94 Indonesia Jan : 0.38 0.04 2.20 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.34 Feb : 0.38 0.04 2.20 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.34 Thailand Jan : 0.60 0.07 1.85 2.05 0.01 0.03 0.43 Feb : 0.60 0.07 1.85 2.05 0.01 0.03 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-407-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 30.71 184.87 54.22 158.01 183.99 53.62 32.19 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.87 28.95 5.66 Total foreign : 23.96 106.20 54.16 111.76 133.12 24.67 26.53 Major exporters 3/ : 16.41 77.05 1.40 46.60 50.13 23.39 21.33 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.30 20.86 22.06 6.01 10.16 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.91 15.00 11.07 Major importers 4/ : 6.82 18.12 42.29 48.65 62.54 0.39 4.30 China : 4.91 15.41 10.39 20.40 28.31 0.30 2.10 EU-15 : 0.85 1.23 18.30 17.34 19.23 0.06 1.08 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.89 5.21 0.00 0.67 Mexico : 0.18 0.07 4.51 4.61 4.66 0.00 0.10 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 32.19 196.78 62.86 165.25 190.44 62.11 39.27 United States : 5.66 74.83 0.13 43.97 47.32 28.44 4.85 Total foreign : 26.53 121.96 62.73 121.29 143.12 33.67 34.42 Major exporters 3/ : 21.33 92.20 1.72 52.16 56.17 32.03 27.06 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.40 23.51 24.84 8.71 12.51 Brazil : 11.07 52.50 1.32 27.45 30.04 20.40 14.45 Major importers 4/ : 4.30 18.71 51.15 53.48 67.29 0.35 6.52 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.99 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-15 : 1.08 0.81 16.60 15.68 17.42 0.06 1.02 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.71 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 38.74 198.73 67.57 174.93 201.55 67.51 35.98 February : 39.27 199.73 67.14 174.58 201.36 67.32 37.47 United States : January : 4.85 65.80 0.22 39.60 42.97 24.49 3.41 February : 4.85 65.80 0.22 39.60 42.97 24.49 3.41 Total foreign : January : 33.88 132.94 67.35 135.33 158.58 43.01 32.57 February : 34.42 133.94 66.92 134.98 158.39 42.82 34.07 Major exporters 3/ : January : 26.46 101.00 1.80 58.41 62.99 41.21 25.06 February : 27.06 102.00 1.60 58.41 62.99 41.01 26.66 Argentina Jan : 12.51 36.50 0.30 25.50 27.01 11.50 10.80 Feb : 12.51 36.50 0.30 25.50 27.01 11.20 11.10 Brazil Jan : 13.85 60.00 1.50 31.61 34.59 26.60 14.16 Feb : 14.45 61.00 1.30 31.61 34.59 26.70 15.46 Major importers 4/ : January : 6.53 18.18 55.16 58.72 73.12 0.29 6.45 February : 6.52 18.18 55.00 58.53 72.96 0.29 6.44 China Jan : 4.47 16.20 23.00 30.25 38.90 0.20 4.57 Feb : 4.47 16.20 23.00 30.25 38.90 0.20 4.57 EU-15 Jan : 1.02 0.66 18.30 17.30 19.11 0.06 0.81 Feb : 1.02 0.66 18.30 17.30 19.11 0.06 0.81 Japan Jan : 0.71 0.28 5.15 4.05 5.43 0.00 0.71 Feb : 0.71 0.28 5.15 4.05 5.43 0.00 0.71 Mexico Jan : 0.05 0.09 4.40 4.45 4.49 0.00 0.05 Feb : 0.05 0.09 4.40 4.45 4.49 0.00 0.05 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-407-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 3.79 125.26 43.63 126.23 42.36 4.09 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.00 6.81 0.22 Total foreign : 3.45 88.71 43.50 96.23 35.55 3.87 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.67 0.33 9.38 30.49 0.99 Argentina : 0.10 16.50 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.30 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 7.90 11.98 0.65 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.14 32.37 27.44 56.19 3.34 1.41 EU-15 : 0.62 13.91 19.54 30.92 2.27 0.87 China : 0.00 16.30 0.02 15.27 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.09 130.91 45.40 132.67 44.04 3.68 United States : 0.22 34.67 0.15 29.38 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.87 96.24 45.25 103.29 38.59 3.48 Major exporters 3/ : 0.99 42.98 0.33 9.99 33.42 0.89 Argentina : 0.30 18.57 0.00 0.23 18.44 0.20 Brazil : 0.65 21.68 0.33 8.25 13.75 0.65 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.51 1.23 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.41 36.35 27.87 61.46 3.07 1.09 EU-15 : 0.87 12.64 20.05 30.68 2.26 0.61 China : 0.00 21.50 0.00 20.71 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 3.70 138.78 48.78 139.41 48.13 3.72 February : 3.68 138.54 48.29 139.01 47.82 3.68 United States : January : 0.20 31.53 0.43 28.12 3.86 0.18 February : 0.20 31.53 0.43 28.12 3.86 0.18 Total foreign : January : 3.50 107.25 48.35 111.29 44.27 3.54 February : 3.48 107.01 47.85 110.89 43.96 3.50 Major exporters 3/ : January : 0.89 49.31 0.33 10.60 39.06 0.87 February : 0.89 49.31 0.33 10.92 38.76 0.85 Argentina Jan : 0.20 20.15 0.00 0.24 19.96 0.15 Feb : 0.20 20.15 0.00 0.24 19.96 0.15 Brazil Jan : 0.65 24.97 0.33 8.78 16.50 0.67 Feb : 0.65 24.97 0.33 9.28 16.00 0.67 India Jan : 0.04 4.19 0.00 1.58 2.60 0.05 Feb : 0.04 4.19 0.00 1.40 2.80 0.03 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.11 40.27 29.77 67.01 3.00 1.14 February : 1.09 40.13 29.37 66.47 3.00 1.12 EU-15 Jan : 0.61 13.91 20.76 32.52 2.18 0.58 Feb : 0.61 13.91 21.06 32.82 2.18 0.58 China Jan : 0.00 24.05 0.05 23.30 0.80 0.00 Feb : 0.00 24.05 0.05 23.30 0.80 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-407-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 2.71 28.86 8.26 28.64 8.65 2.54 United States : 1.26 8.57 0.02 7.64 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.46 20.29 8.24 21.01 7.51 1.47 Major exporters 3/ : 0.47 11.70 0.17 5.17 6.66 0.50 Argentina : 0.10 3.88 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.13 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.10 1.78 0.18 EU-15 : 0.18 3.11 0.02 1.95 1.16 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.46 4.48 2.00 6.48 0.06 0.41 China : 0.28 3.58 0.37 3.96 0.06 0.21 India : 0.18 0.86 1.55 2.39 0.00 0.19 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.54 30.39 8.88 30.71 9.37 1.74 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.47 22.03 8.86 22.96 8.34 1.06 Major exporters 3/ : 0.50 12.46 0.11 5.23 7.54 0.30 Argentina : 0.13 4.40 0.00 0.12 4.35 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.25 0.07 3.15 2.25 0.10 EU-15 : 0.20 2.81 0.04 1.96 0.94 0.15 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.40 3.09 8.50 0.02 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.72 6.39 0.01 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.28 1.97 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.14 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 1.79 32.01 9.57 32.10 9.64 1.63 February : 1.74 31.97 9.16 31.65 9.65 1.57 United States : January : 0.68 7.43 0.11 7.37 0.39 0.46 February : 0.68 7.43 0.11 7.37 0.39 0.46 Total foreign : January : 1.11 24.58 9.46 24.73 9.25 1.18 February : 1.06 24.54 9.06 24.28 9.27 1.12 Major exporters 3/ : January : 0.30 13.89 0.14 5.61 8.31 0.41 February : 0.30 13.89 0.14 5.61 8.31 0.41 Argentina Jan : 0.05 4.74 0.00 0.13 4.59 0.08 Feb : 0.05 4.74 0.00 0.13 4.59 0.08 Brazil Jan : 0.10 6.04 0.10 3.33 2.75 0.17 Feb : 0.10 6.04 0.10 3.33 2.75 0.17 EU-15 Jan : 0.15 3.11 0.04 2.16 0.97 0.17 Feb : 0.15 3.11 0.04 2.16 0.97 0.17 Major importers 4/ : January : 0.38 6.30 3.01 9.23 0.09 0.38 February : 0.38 6.30 2.82 9.03 0.10 0.38 China Jan : 0.25 5.30 1.75 7.00 0.08 0.22 Feb : 0.25 5.30 1.81 7.06 0.08 0.22 India Jan : 0.13 0.97 1.15 2.09 0.01 0.16 Feb : 0.13 0.97 0.90 1.83 0.02 0.15 Pakistan Jan : 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.01 Feb : 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-407-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2002 : Annual : 27090 19664 47169 32240 5713 38500 85669 7266 169.8 : 2003 : I : 6287 4889 11275 7770 1379 9275 20550 1790 42.9 II : 6907 4734 11738 8238 1438 9808 21546 1802 43.9 III : 7078 4795 11965 8454 1407 9989 21954 1823 41.5 IV : 5962 5491 11556 8200 1422 9739 21295 1859 41.3 Annual : Jan Est : 26237 19918 46545 32638 5674 38813 85358 7229 169.8 Feb Est : 26234 19909 46534 32663 5646 38812 85346 7274 169.7 : 2004 : I*: 6050 4950 11097 8040 1355 9510 20607 1812 43.1 II*: 6625 4900 11619 8565 1415 10105 21724 1820 43.8 III*: 6700 4925 11717 8800 1430 10360 22077 1855 41.5 IV*: 6000 5300 11396 8500 1460 10080 21476 1885 41.5 Annual : Jan Proj : 25400 20050 45831 33610 5680 39780 85611 7265 171.2 Feb Proj : 25375 20075 45829 33905 5660 40055 85884 7372 169.9 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2002 : Annual : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.11 : 2003 : I : 77.82 35.38 60.3 61.1 77.2 11.37 II : 78.49 42.64 59.6 60.6 73.9 11.07 III : 83.07 42.90 63.4 59.1 89.9 13.20 IV : 99.38 36.89 64.6 67.4 110.7 14.40 Annual : Jan Est : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 88.4 12.51 Feb Est : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 87.9 12.51 : 2004 : I*: 76-78 38-40 68-70 60-62 103-107 13.05-13.35 II*: 72-76 39-41 70-74 60-64 92-98 12.10-12.70 III*: 69-75 38-42 67-73 61-67 91-99 12.50-13.40 IV*: 73-79 34-38 65-71 63-69 96-104 14.10-15.10 Annual : Jan Proj : 72-78 37-40 62-66 61-65 88-94 11.95-12.75 Feb Proj : 72-77 38-40 68-72 61-65 96-102 12.95-13.65 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-407-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2002 : 606 27192 3218 31016 2447 691 27878 67.6 2003 Est. Jan : 691 26342 2860 29893 2584 500 26809 64.4 Feb : 691 26339 2920 29950 2574 519 26857 64.5 2004 Proj. Jan : 500 25505 3330 29335 220 575 28540 67.8 Feb : 519 25480 3330 29329 220 575 28534 67.8 : PORK : 2002 : 536 19685 1070 21291 1611 533 19147 51.5 2003 Est. Jan : 533 19940 1208 21681 1707 515 19459 51.8 Feb : 533 19931 1193 21657 1707 532 19418 51.7 2004 Proj. Jan : 515 20072 1295 21882 1765 540 19577 51.6 Feb : 532 20097 1235 21864 1765 540 19559 51.5 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2002 : 1160 47305 4450 52915 4065 1238 47612 120.9 2003 Est. Jan : 1238 46686 4227 52151 4297 1030 46824 117.8 Feb : 1238 46675 4277 52190 4287 1060 46843 117.8 2004 Proj. Jan : 1030 45972 4788 51790 1990 1129 48671 121.0 Feb : 1060 45970 4728 51758 1990 1124 48644 120.9 : BROILERS : 2002 : 712 31895 12 32619 4807 763 27049 80.5 2003 Est. Jan : 763 32288 12 33063 4887 575 27601 81.3 Feb : 763 32313 12 33088 4937 606 27544 81.1 2004 Proj. Jan : 575 33250 12 33837 5105 600 28132 82.0 Feb : 606 33542 12 34160 5275 600 28285 82.5 : TURKEYS : 2002 : 241 5638 1 5879 439 333 5108 17.7 2003 Est. Jan : 333 5600 1 5934 486 325 5123 17.6 Feb : 333 5572 1 5906 486 353 5067 17.4 2004 Proj. Jan : 325 5606 1 5932 510 325 5096 17.3 Feb : 353 5586 1 5940 510 325 5104 17.3 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2002 : 960 38079 16 39056 5380 1101 32575 99.6 2003 Est. Jan : 1101 38389 16 39506 5471 904 33131 100.3 Feb : 1101 38388 16 39505 5521 962 33022 99.9 2004 Proj. Jan : 904 39346 17 40267 5715 930 33621 100.6 Feb : 962 39618 17 40597 5885 929 33782 101.1 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2002 : 2120 85384 4466 91971 9445 2339 80187 220.5 2003 Est. Jan : 2339 85075 4243 91657 9768 1934 79955 218.0 Feb : 2339 85063 4293 91695 9808 2022 79865 217.7 2004 Proj. Jan : 1934 85318 4805 92057 7705 2059 82292 221.7 Feb : 2022 85588 4745 92355 7875 2053 82426 222.1 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-407-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2003 Estimated : 2004 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2001 : 2002 : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 12.0 13.7 Production : 7157.0 7266.0 7229.0 7274.0 7265.0 7372.0 Imports : 8.9 15.0 13.1 13.1 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7177.2 7291.4 7252.4 7297.4 7289.0 7397.7 : Use : Exports : 190.0 174.0 154.0 150.0 160.0 160.0 Hatching use : 964.2 961.3 957.0 958.7 980.0 980.0 Ending stocks : 10.4 10.3 12.0 13.7 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 6012.6 6145.8 6129.4 6175.0 6137.0 6245.7 Per capita (number) : 252.7 255.5 252.2 254.1 250.0 254.4 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Est 1/ : 2003/04 Proj 1/ Commodity :2000/01:2001/02:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 8.9 8.8 11.2 11.2 11.0 11.0 Production : 165.2 169.2 169.9 169.9 170.6 169.7 Farm use : 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 164.0 168.0 168.8 168.8 169.6 168.7 Imports 2/ : 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.3 182.0 185.0 185.0 185.6 184.7 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 169.2 170.5 172.7 172.7 176.6 175.9 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 8.8 8.7 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.1 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 6.3 9.6 9.2 9.2 6.2 6.2 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 12.29 11.03 10.63 10.63 11.20- 11.85- : 11.70 12.35 : Class IV : 13.88 11.22 10.05 10.05 10.00- 10.65- : 10.70 11.35 : All milk 5/ : 14.51 12.74 11.90 11.90 12.40- 13.00- : 12.90 13.50 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 0 0 29 29 1 -5 Cheese : 17 9 47 47 10 6 Nonfat dry milk : 525 817 751 751 525 530 Dry whole milk : 3 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-407-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 22-year record of the differences between the February projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the February projection and the final estimate have averaged 2.3 million tons (0.4%) ranging from -7.3 to 6.8 million tons. The February projection has been below the estimate 16 times and above 6 times. Reliability of February Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.4 2.3 -7.3 6.8 16 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 10 6 Foreign : 0.5 2.3 -7.3 6.8 16 6 Exports : World : 2.7 3.1 -10.9 5.0 14 8 U.S. : 3.4 1.1 -1.4 3.0 9 13 Foreign : 3.7 3.1 -9.5 4.1 17 5 Domestic use : World : 0.9 4.5 -9.7 9.1 11 11 U.S. : 3.3 1.0 -2.4 2.4 10 12 Foreign : 0.8 4.1 -8.2 8.5 11 11 Ending stocks : World : 3.4 4.4 -11.4 7.8 13 9 U.S. : 7.6 1.5 -4.4 3.2 14 8 Foreign : 3.9 3.7 -10.4 9.1 12 10 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.8 6.8 -17.7 7.3 16 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 11 6 Foreign : 1.1 6.8 -17.7 7.3 14 7 Exports : World : 3.8 4.0 -10.4 13.8 17 5 U.S. : 7.7 3.9 -8.7 12.2 11 11 Foreign : 6.7 3.7 -12.6 7.2 14 8 Domestic use : World : 0.9 7.7 -16.2 28.9 10 12 U.S. : 2.5 4.5 -17.3 11.5 10 12 Foreign : 1.0 6.6 -12.5 22.2 13 9 Ending stocks : World : 7.2 10.0 -29.9 16.4 17 5 U.S. : 8.7 5.0 -16.9 18.5 12 10 Foreign : 8.9 7.0 -20.3 11.2 17 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.4 4.6 -14.0 1.9 17 5 U.S. : 1.1 0.1 -0.3 0.2 7 4 Foreign : 1.4 4.6 -14.0 1.8 17 5 Exports : World : 7.2 1.3 -5.2 1.3 18 4 U.S. : 6.2 0.2 -0.6 0.2 12 8 Foreign : 8.1 1.2 -5.0 1.2 17 5 Domestic use : World : 1.1 3.6 -12.8 2.3 16 6 U.S. : 5.6 0.2 -0.4 0.4 10 12 Foreign : 1.1 3.6 -13.0 2.5 16 6 Ending stocks : World : 6.9 3.1 -13.6 4.0 17 5 U.S. : 16.7 0.2 -0.3 0.4 11 11 Foreign : 7.2 3.1 -13.8 4.0 17 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-407-33 Reliability of February Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.7 2.1 -4.8 2.1 16 6 U.S. : 0.9 0.5 -1.6 1.8 9 9 Foreign : 3.2 2.0 -5.2 2.2 18 4 Exports : World : 4.1 1.5 -7.0 3.9 14 8 U.S. : 5.6 1.2 -2.9 3.7 13 9 Foreign : 13.9 1.6 -5.9 5.1 11 11 Domestic use : World : 2.0 2.4 -5.4 2.5 13 9 U.S. : 2.4 1.0 -3.0 2.4 15 7 Foreign : 2.2 1.8 -4.2 2.1 15 7 Ending stocks : World : 11.0 2.2 -6.8 5.1 14 8 U.S. : 20.7 1.6 -3.4 4.9 7 15 Foreign : 14.5 2.1 -6.7 3.1 15 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 1.7 1.4 -5.4 2.8 16 6 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.3 7 14 Foreign : 2.1 1.5 -5.7 2.7 16 6 Exports : World : 3.2 0.8 -2.5 0.9 12 10 U.S. : 7.1 0.4 -1.1 1.0 10 11 Foreign : 4.3 0.8 -3.5 1.0 12 10 Mill use : World : 1.8 1.5 -6.0 1.3 12 10 U.S. : 3.8 0.3 -0.9 0.8 16 5 Foreign : 1.9 1.4 -5.5 1.6 13 9 Ending stocks : World : 7.7 2.6 -6.0 7.9 11 10 U.S. : 12.5 0.6 -1.5 2.1 7 15 Foreign : 8.1 2.5 -6.2 7.4 12 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 22 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-407-34 Reliability of United States February Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.1 2 -8 38 2 1 Exports : 8.0 136 -379 384 10 12 Domestic use : 2.6 157 -474 345 11 11 Ending stocks : 10.5 200 -635 838 14 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.1 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 13.7 32 -90 97 13 8 Domestic use : 8.8 40 -178 100 10 12 Ending stocks : 30.0 34 -69 148 10 12 : BARLEY : Production : 0.3 2 -3 11 9 4 Exports : 11.8 8 -35 23 8 12 Domestic use : 5.3 20 -38 70 11 10 Ending stocks : 9.1 16 -52 24 14 7 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 4 2 Exports : 30.0 1 -1 3 4 5 Domestic use : 3.0 12 -26 36 11 11 Ending stocks : 10.4 13 -47 21 11 11 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.2 673 -2328 765 16 6 Exports : 7.2 492 -1900 941 15 7 Domestic use : 2.0 470 -1200 866 15 7 Ending stocks : 31.2 77 -214 208 9 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.2 325 -1173 365 15 7 Exports : 16.1 246 -700 814 10 12 Domestic use : 1.8 234 -735 300 15 6 Ending stocks : 16.2 250 -692 415 11 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.5 616 -741 1613 15 5 Pork : 2.8 456 -1240 1717 13 7 Broilers : 1.6 350 -729 484 13 7 Turkeys : 1.9 85 -177 161 12 8 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.3 81 -127 169 12 8 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.0 1.5 -3.2 3.6 9 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 22 for crops and 20 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2002 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 2001/02 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ------------- End of File -----------------