WASDE-367 October 12, 2000 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks of wheat are down 88 million bushels from last month because of a smaller crop and increased use. The wheat crop estimate of 2,239 million bushels (published in the September 29 Small Grains report) is down 63 million from the September 12 forecast. Prospective feed and residual use is 25 million bushels above last month's projection because the September 1 stocks estimates indicated larger-than-expected use in the June-August quarter. The projected wheat price range is up 10 cents on the low end to $2.35 to $2.55 per bushel. Projected global production is down from last month, led by a 2-million-ton reduction in the Australian crop. Dry conditions in parts of Australia have sharply cut prospective yields. Canadian production is also lower than last month, but output is up for Kazakstan. The smaller crops dropped projected exports for Australia and Canada, but this is partially offset by higher prospective shipments by Kazakstan and Argentina. Lower global imports are expected as reductions for China and a few other countries more than offset higher imports by Ukraine and a few other countries. The United States and China account for most of a drop in projected 2000/01 global ending stocks of wheat. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks of corn are down 425 million bushels from last month because of smaller supplies and larger use. Forecast corn production, at 10,192 million bushels, is off 170 million from last month's forecast because of lower area and yields. In addition, reported carryin stocks are 54 million bushels below last month's forecast, leaving total corn supplies down 225 million bushels. Projected corn feed and residual use is up 100 million bushels this month because of the upward revision in last year's use of corn and smaller 2000/01 sorghum supplies. Projected exports also are up 100 million bushels from last month because of reduced competition and expanding global demand. Given this month's tighter supply/use balance, the projected price range for corn is up 15 cents on each end to $1.65 to $2.05 per bushel. Lower U.S. and foreign coarse grain production and expanding U.S. use sharply drop expected global 2000/01 coarse grain ending stocks from last month's projection. Corn production is reduced for Argentina and South Africa due to smaller prospective plantings. However, the predominant reason for the sharp reduction in foreign coarse grain production is a 10-million-ton drop in China's corn crop to 105 million tons. Prospective exports are reduced for Argentina but unchanged for China. However, projected global imports are up from last month due to larger expected purchases by a number of countries. The United States and China account for most of a sharp reduction in projected 2000/01 coarse grain ending stocks. RICE: The U.S. 2000/01 rice crop is projected at 192.2 million cwt, up slightly from last month. Average yield is forecast at a record 6,230 pounds per acre, up 18 pounds per acre from last month. No changes are made on the use side. Ending stocks are projected at 27.1 million cwt, up slightly from last month and fractionally below 1999/2000. The season-average price projection for 2000/01 is narrowed by $0.25 per cwt on each end to $5.75 to $6.25 per cwt. Slight changes are made to the 1999/2000 rice supply and use balance. The import and export estimates for 1999/2000 are reduced slightly based on U.S. Census data for the full marketing year. Imports for 1999/2000 are estimated at 10.02 million cwt, and exports are estimated at 88.04 million cwt. The milling rate for 1999/2000 is changed slightly to 69.1 percent, resulting in a slight increase in ending stocks. Total domestic and residual use for 1999/2000 is raised slightly from a month ago. Global 2000/01 rice production and ending stocks are lowered from a month ago while consumption and exports are raised slightly. The decrease in production is due primarily to smaller crops projected for Cambodia, Laos, and North Korea, which are partially offset by increases in Japan and several African countries. This month's report reflects crop losses due to flooding in parts of South and Southeast Asia, notably in Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand. Thailand's 1999/2000 crop is lowered 200,000 tons to 15.65 million tons due to flooding. Flooding has also occurred in parts of Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam. USDA will continue to assess the flooding situation in South and Southeast Asia as more information becomes available. Global ending stocks are projected at 58.6 million tons, down 0.7 million from a month ago. The reduction in global ending stocks is primarily due to decreases for China and Thailand. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseeds ending stocks for 2000/01 are unchanged from last month as a decline in production is offset by reduced export and crush prospects and higher beginning stocks. September 1 carryin stocks for soybeans are up 23 million bushels, in part due to an upward revision in old crop production. Oilseed supplies are down 1.7 million tons from last month, due mostly to a drop of 77 million bushels in forecast soybean production to 2,823 million bushels. Other oilseed production changes this month include declines in peanut and cottonseed production, as poor growing conditions hurt yields. Projected U.S. oilseed total use in 2000/01 is reduced 1.3 million tons from last month. Soybean export prospects are reduced 35 million bushels. Crush is down 15 million bushels as domestic soybean meal use and export prospects decline. U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are reduced slightly this month as lower domestic production is nearly offset by reduced total use. Domestic use is cut 150 million pounds while exports are increased 100 million pounds this month. Higher exports are helped by a reduction in foreign sunflowerseed oil availability. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2000/01 are projected at $4.60 to $5.20 per bushel, compared with $4.35 to $5.15 last month and $4.65 per bushel last year. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $160 to $185 per short ton, compared with $155 to $180 last month. Soybean oil prices are unchanged at 15 to18 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 2000/01 is projected at a record 303.6 million tons, up 4.0 million tons from 1999/2000, but down 1.2 million tons from last month, as lower U.S. production is almost offset by gains in South America. U.S. oilseed output is projected at a record 86.9 million tons, down 2.6 million tons from last month, but 4.6 million tons above last year. Foreign production is forecast at 216.7 million tons, up 1.4 million tons from last month, mainly due to larger South American soybean production. World soybean production of 166.2 million tons is off 0.3 million tons from last month. Brazil's soybean crop is projected at a record 33.5 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last month and 1.5 million tons above last year's revised estimate, based on favorable planting conditions. Argentina's soybean production is projected at 22.6 million tons, up 1.1 million tons from last month based on increased planted area prospects, as both corn and sunflowerseed area are reduced. Global oilseed crush and trade are little changed from last month, as U.S. declines are largely offset by increases in South America's exports and crush. Soybean crush gains in Argentina are helped by declines in prospective sunflowerseed crush. Other significant changes include reductions for the EU in soybean crush and imports and sunflowerseed meal imports. SUGAR: Projected fiscal year 2000/01 sugar production is decreased 457,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. A decrease of 320,000 tons of beet sugar is based on lower forecast sugarbeet area harvested, primarily resulting from the Payment-In-Kind (PIK) Diversion Program. Cane sugar production is lowered 137,000 tons, as lower forecast sugarcane yields in Florida more than offsets higher forecast yield in Texas. Imports of sugar under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) are projected at 1.275 million tons, which includes 116,611 tons of Mexican sugar under the North American Free Trade Agreement. The TRQ shortfall is projected at 65,000 tons. Total ending stocks are projected at 1.620 million tons and the ratio of total stocks to use is 15.3 percent. Subsequent to a PIK payout of 260,000-290,000 tons, the Commodity Credit Corporation will own 810,000-840,000 tons. For 1999/2000, total imports are reduced 25,000 tons from last month. Shortfall totals 77,100 tons, up 17,100 tons. On the use side, total deliveries are reduced 35,000 tons, based on the year-to-date pace. Season- ending stocks of 1.944 million tons include 297,000 tons of CCC-owned sugar from purchases and loan forfeitures during the fiscal year. The stocks-to-use ratio is 18.8 percent, compared with 18.6 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast total meat production in 2000 is lowered as declines in broiler production more than offset increases in beef. Broiler returns have been relatively weak and September hatchery supply flock data point to slowing production growth. Beef production is raised as fourth-quarter feedlot marketings are increased. Meat production in 2001 is raised 50 million pounds as forecast expansion in the hog and turkey sectors more than offsets a lower forecast for broiler production. The September Hogs and Pigs report indicates that producers are gearing up for expansion. Breeding inventories were about 1 percent smaller than last year but producers indicated intentions to have 1 percent more sows farrow in September-November and 3 percent more in December-February. With expansion forecast to continue next year, pork production is raised 300 million pounds for 2001. Forecast broiler production in 2001 is reduced 350 million pounds. Turkey production is raised 100 million pounds. The 2000 price forecasts for cattle and hogs are raised due to stronger than expected third-quarter prices. However, 2001 hog prices are lowered, largely reflecting sharp reductions in the second half forecast. Although 2001 broiler production is reduced, prices are unchanged due to increased total meat supplies. The milk production forecast is increased for 2000/01 due to higher projected cow numbers and continued increases in output per cow. Milk prices are reduced due to increased production and continued weakness in product prices. Class III prices are lowered due to a more bearish outlook for cheese prices. The higher milk production pressures butter and NDM prices, resulting in a lower forecast Class IV price. The 2000/01 all milk price is also reduced. COTTON: This month's U.S. 2000/01 forecasts reflect lower production, demand, and ending stocks. Production is reduced 4.5 percent to 17.5 million bales, mainly due to lower harvested area. Domestic mill use is reduced slightly, while exports are revised down 4 percent, reflecting both lower available supplies and reduced foreign import demand. Ending stocks are now projected at 3.8 million bales, 21.5 percent of total use. In addition, minor revisions are made to the 1999/2000 balance sheet to incorporate end-of-season data from the Census Bureau and other sources. Global 2000/01 cotton production is raised slightly as increases for Pakistan, China, Brazil and Zimbabwe are almost entirely offset by reductions for the United States, the African franc zone, Sudan, and Australia. World consumption also is up slightly, with increases for Pakistan and China partially offset by reductions for importing countries including Taiwan, Korea, Italy, and the United States. With lower expected world import demand, world trade is reduced--exports are lower this month for Sudan, the United States, Uzbekistan, the African franc zone, and others. A 640,000-bale increase in world ending stocks is attributable mainly to larger beginning stocks. World ending stocks for 1999/2000 are raised 550,000 bales because historical revisions raise estimated stocks for Australia and reduce estimated stocks for the EU. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: KEITH J. COLLINS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on November 9, 2000. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2001: Jan. 11, Feb. 8, Mar. 8, Apr. 10, May 10, June 12, July 11, Aug. 10, Sep. 12, Oct.12, Nov. 9, Dec. 11. USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum 2001 will take place on February 22 - 23, 2001. See page 14 for details. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. 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WASDE-367-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1998/99 : 1,872.19 2,213.51 257.22 1,846.69 366.82 1999/00 (Est.) : 1,864.38 2,231.20 267.92 1,874.82 356.38 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 1,862.34 2,219.90 266.46 1,883.01 336.89 October : 1,840.23 2,196.61 266.53 1,885.40 311.21 Wheat : 1998/99 : 588.39 727.12 122.91 590.76 136.35 1999/00 (Est.) : 585.93 722.29 128.14 594.13 128.16 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 583.15 710.26 127.46 596.67 113.60 October : 579.91 708.08 126.16 596.68 111.39 Coarse grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 889.82 1,037.69 107.43 867.25 170.44 1999/00 (Est.) : 875.99 1,046.43 116.34 880.96 165.48 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 881.73 1,049.04 114.09 885.10 163.94 October : 862.98 1,028.46 115.28 887.29 141.17 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 393.98 448.70 26.89 388.68 60.03 1999/00 (Est.) : 402.45 462.48 23.44 399.73 62.74 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 397.46 460.60 24.91 401.24 59.35 October : 397.33 460.08 25.09 401.44 58.64 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1998/99 : 346.60 411.49 86.99 246.69 77.81 1999/00 (Est.) : 332.37 415.84 88.60 251.73 75.51 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 354.21 436.89 94.77 252.62 89.50 October : 347.08 428.36 96.80 255.68 75.89 Wheat : 1998/99 : 69.33 91.79 28.36 37.69 25.74 1999/00 (Est.) : 62.57 90.89 29.65 35.38 25.85 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 62.66 91.24 30.62 34.05 26.57 October : 60.94 89.51 30.62 34.73 24.17 Coarse grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 271.47 312.69 55.95 205.37 51.37 1999/00 (Est.) : 263.34 317.49 56.19 212.50 48.80 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 285.51 338.42 61.63 214.70 62.09 October : 280.08 331.61 63.66 217.08 50.87 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 5.80 7.01 2.68 3.63 0.69 1999/00 (Est.) : 6.46 7.47 2.76 3.85 0.86 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 6.04 7.24 2.52 3.87 0.84 October : 6.06 7.25 2.52 3.87 0.85 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-367-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 1,525.59 1,802.02 170.23 1,600.00 289.01 1999/00 (Est.) : 1,532.01 1,815.36 179.31 1,623.08 280.88 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 1,508.14 1,783.01 171.69 1,630.39 247.39 October : 1,493.15 1,768.25 169.73 1,629.73 235.32 Wheat : 1998/99 : 519.06 635.32 94.54 553.08 110.61 1999/00 (Est.) : 523.37 631.40 98.48 558.74 102.32 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 520.50 619.03 96.84 562.62 87.03 October : 518.97 618.56 95.54 561.95 87.23 Coarse grains 5/ : 1998/99 : 618.34 725.00 51.49 661.88 119.07 1999/00 (Est.) : 612.65 728.94 60.15 668.46 116.68 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 596.22 710.62 52.46 670.40 101.85 October : 582.91 696.85 51.62 670.21 90.31 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 388.18 441.69 24.20 385.04 59.33 1999/00 (Est.) : 395.99 455.01 20.68 395.88 61.88 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 391.42 453.36 22.39 397.37 58.51 October : 391.28 452.83 22.57 397.56 57.79 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1998/99 : 84.72 128.44 23.74 85.05 45.08 1999/00 (Est.) : 87.03 132.10 27.26 91.24 40.47 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 86.75 126.67 27.45 92.57 34.35 October : 86.90 127.37 26.75 92.70 34.99 : United States 1998/99 : 13.92 18.25 4.34 10.40 3.94 1999/00 (Est.) : 16.97 21.00 6.75 10.24 3.92 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 18.32 22.34 7.90 10.20 4.20 October : 17.49 21.48 7.60 10.10 3.80 : Foreign 3/ 1998/99 : 70.81 110.19 19.39 74.65 41.14 1999/00 (Est.) : 70.06 111.10 20.51 81.00 36.55 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 68.43 104.33 19.55 82.37 30.15 October : 69.41 105.88 19.15 82.60 31.19 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-367-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 294.13 322.05 54.64 240.78 30.46 1999/00 (Est.) : 299.58 330.03 64.30 248.42 28.88 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 304.77 333.23 60.47 250.34 28.93 October : 303.58 332.46 60.34 250.17 27.94 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 164.72 170.26 53.95 163.64 6.36 1999/00 (Est.) : 169.91 176.27 54.97 170.14 6.11 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 171.82 178.17 55.09 172.26 5.76 October : 172.14 178.25 55.27 172.35 5.57 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 80.67 87.33 31.43 79.05 7.44 1999/00 (Est.) : 84.77 92.20 32.24 83.05 8.00 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 86.08 94.21 32.48 86.00 7.77 October : 86.02 94.03 32.68 85.99 7.74 : : United States Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 84.36 91.49 22.72 47.81 10.78 1999/00 (Est.) : 82.31 93.82 27.24 47.95 8.91 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 89.46 98.04 28.11 49.11 10.92 October : 86.90 96.37 27.16 48.70 10.74 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 36.80 38.33 6.71 31.29 0.33 1999/00 (Est.) : 36.80 38.36 6.86 31.26 0.25 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 37.74 39.24 6.93 32.01 0.29 October : 37.44 38.89 6.81 31.82 0.27 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 9.43 11.85 1.64 9.22 1.00 1999/00 (Est.) : 9.39 11.91 1.15 9.54 1.22 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 9.59 12.52 1.30 9.98 1.24 October : 9.53 12.46 1.34 9.93 1.19 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 209.77 230.56 31.91 192.96 19.68 1999/00 (Est.) : 217.26 236.21 37.06 200.47 19.97 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 215.31 235.20 32.36 201.24 18.02 October : 216.68 236.09 33.18 201.48 17.21 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 127.92 131.93 47.24 132.35 6.02 1999/00 (Est.) : 133.11 137.92 48.12 138.89 5.87 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 134.08 138.94 48.16 140.25 5.47 October : 134.70 139.36 48.47 140.53 5.30 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 71.24 75.48 29.79 69.83 6.44 1999/00 (Est.) : 75.38 80.30 31.09 73.50 6.79 2000/01 (Proj.) : September : 76.49 81.68 31.17 76.02 6.54 October : 76.50 81.57 31.34 76.06 6.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-367-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 65.8 62.7 62.9 62.5 Harvested : 59.0 53.8 54.4 53.2 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 43.2 42.7 42.3 42.1 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 722 946 950 950 Production : 2,547 2,299 2,302 2,239 Imports : 103 95 100 100 Supply, total : 3,373 3,339 3,352 3,289 Food : 910 925 940 940 Seed : 81 92 86 86 Feed and residual : 394 284 225 250 Domestic, total : 1,385 1,300 1,251 1,276 Exports : 1,042 1,090 1,125 1,125 Use, total : 2,427 2,390 2,376 2,401 Ending stocks : 946 950 976 888 CCC inventory : 128 104 110 105 Free stocks : 818 846 866 783 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.65 2.48 2.25- 2.75 2.35- 2.75 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1999/00 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 435 233 136 87 55 946 Production : 1,051 448 454 247 99 2,299 Supply, total 3/ : 1,486 741 590 340 182 3,339 Domestic use : 542 293 287 89 89 1,300 Exports : 486 230 170 160 44 1,090 Use, total : 1,028 523 457 249 133 2,390 Ending stocks, total : 458 218 133 91 50 950 : 2000/01 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 458 218 133 91 50 950 Production : 844 509 471 301 116 2,239 Supply, total 3/ : 1,303 789 604 399 195 3,289 Domestic use : 504 297 273 106 96 1,276 Exports : 455 250 200 175 45 1,125 Use, total : 959 547 473 281 141 2,401 Ending stocks, total : October : 344 242 131 118 54 888 September : 357 298 138 122 61 976 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-367-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 101.0 96.6 98.8 98.9 Harvested : 88.9 86.3 89.1 88.2 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.05 3.20 3.17 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 38.1 51.3 50.1 48.8 Production : 271.2 263.1 285.3 279.9 Imports : 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 Supply, total : 312.3 317.1 338.1 331.2 Feed and residual : 152.3 157.4 158.2 160.6 Food, seed & industrial : 52.7 54.7 56.2 56.2 Domestic, total : 205.0 212.1 214.4 216.8 Exports : 55.9 56.2 61.6 63.7 Use, total : 261.0 268.3 276.0 280.4 Ending stocks, total : 51.3 48.8 62.0 50.8 CCC inventory : 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Free stocks : 51.0 48.4 61.6 50.4 Outstanding loans : 10.3 10.2 12.9 12.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 80.2 77.4 79.6 79.6 Harvested : 72.6 70.5 73.1 73.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 134.4 133.8 141.8 139.6 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,308 1,787 1,769 1,715 Production : 9,759 9,437 10,362 10,192 Imports : 19 15 10 10 Supply, total : 11,085 11,239 12,142 11,917 Feed and residual : 5,471 5,676 5,750 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 1,846 1,913 1,975 1,975 Domestic, total : 7,318 7,589 7,725 7,825 Exports : 1,981 1,935 2,175 2,275 Use, total : 9,298 9,524 9,900 10,100 Ending stocks, total : 1,787 1,715 2,242 1,817 CCC inventory : 12 14 15 15 Free stocks : 1,775 1,701 2,227 1,802 Outstanding loans : 391 392 500 500 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 1.80 1.50- 1.90 1.65- 2.05 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-367-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.3 9.0 9.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.5 8.3 7.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.3 69.7 62.1 60.7 Beginning stocks : 49 65 65 65 Production : 520 595 516 465 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 569 660 581 531 Feed and residual : 262 290 245 230 Food, seed & industrial : 45 55 50 50 Total domestic : 307 345 295 280 Exports : 197 250 220 200 Use, total : 504 595 515 480 Ending stocks, total : 65 65 66 51 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.66 1.55 1.30- 1.70 1.45- 1.85 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 5.2 5.7 5.8 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.9 4.7 5.2 5.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.0 59.2 59.2 61.4 Beginning stocks : 119 142 112 111 Production : 352 280 310 320 Imports : 30 28 30 30 Supply, total : 501 450 452 462 Feed and residual : 161 136 140 150 Food, seed & industrial : 170 172 172 172 Total domestic : 331 308 312 322 Exports : 28 30 35 35 Use, total : 360 338 347 357 Ending stocks, total : 142 111 105 105 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.98 2.13 1.80- 2.20 2.10- 2.40 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.2 59.6 62.3 64.4 Beginning stocks : 74 81 76 76 Production : 166 146 153 150 Imports : 108 99 100 100 Supply, total : 348 326 329 326 Feed and residual : 196 180 180 180 Food, seed & industrial : 69 68 68 68 Total domestic : 265 249 248 248 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 266 250 250 250 Ending stocks, total : 81 76 79 76 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.12 0.95- 1.35 1.05- 1.25 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-367-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.29 3.53 3.11 3.11 Harvested : 3.26 3.51 3.09 3.09 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,663 5,866 6,212 6,230 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.9 22.1 27.5 27.5 Production : 184.4 206.0 191.6 192.2 Imports : 10.5 10.0 10.5 10.3 Supply, total : 222.9 238.1 229.6 230.0 Domestic & residual 3/ : 115.5 122.6 122.9 122.9 Exports, total 4/ : 85.3 88.0 80.0 80.0 Rough : 25.8 25.2 25.0 25.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 59.6 62.8 55.0 55.0 Use, total : 200.8 210.6 202.9 202.9 Ending stocks : 22.1 27.5 26.7 27.1 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.3 69.1 69.5 69.5 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.89 6.11 5.50- 6.50 5.75- 6.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.57 2.72 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,426 5,587 Beginning stocks : 14.5 14.1 15.6 15.6 Production : 139.3 151.9 130.1 130.4 Supply, total 7/ : 162.4 173.4 155.0 155.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 77.6 87.4 80.0 80.0 Exports 8/ : 70.7 70.4 62.0 62.0 Use, total : 148.3 157.8 142.0 142.0 Ending stocks : 14.1 15.6 13.0 13.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.69 0.79 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,548 6,822 Beginning stocks : 12.3 6.8 10.4 10.4 Production : 45.1 54.2 61.6 61.7 Supply, total 7/ : 59.4 63.2 73.2 73.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 37.9 35.2 42.9 42.9 Exports 8/ : 14.6 17.6 18.0 18.0 Use, total : 52.5 52.8 60.9 60.9 Ending stocks : 6.8 10.4 12.3 12.5 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1998/99-1.1; 1999/00-1.2 2000/01-1.4. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-367-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 72.0 73.7 74.5 * 74.5 * Harvested : 70.4 72.4 73.5 * 73.0 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.9 36.6 39.5 38.7 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 200 348 265 288 Production : 2,741 2,654 2,900 2,823 Imports : 3 4 3 3 Supply, total : 2,944 3,006 3,167 3,114 Crushings : 1,590 1,579 1,630 1,615 Exports : 805 970 1,000 965 Seed : 88 90 90 90 Residual : 113 80 82 79 Use, total : 2,595 2,719 2,802 2,749 Ending stocks : 348 288 365 365 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.93 4.65 4.35- 5.15 4.60 - 5.20 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,382 1,520 1,880 1,970 Production : 18,081 17,845 _3/ 18,500 18,330 Imports : 82 80 90 90 Supply, total : 19,546 19,445 20,470 20,390 Domestic : 15,655 16,100 16,650 16,500 Exports : 2,371 1,375 1,800 1,900 Use, total : 18,027 17,475 18,450 18,400 Ending stocks : 1,520 1,970 2,020 1,990 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 19.90 15.60 15.00- 15.00- : 18.00 18.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 218 330 275 225 Production : 37,792 37,620 _3/ 38,735 38,410 Imports : 99 50 65 65 Supply, total : 38,109 38,000 39,075 38,700 Domestic : 30,657 30,450 31,400 31,200 Exports : 7,122 7,325 7,400 7,250 Use, total : 37,779 37,775 38,800 38,450 Ending stocks : 330 225 275 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 138.50 167.00 155.00- 160.00- : 180.00 185.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,575 million bushels. *Planted and harvested acres based on June Acreage report. WASDE-367-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :====================== : : Estimate : September October ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,679 1,639 1,934 1,944 Production 2/3/ : 8,374 9,035 8,903 8,446 Beet sugar : 4,423 4,950 4,670 4,350 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,951 4,085 4,233 4,096 Imports 2/ : 1,824 1,610 NA 1,790 TRQ 5/ : 1,256 1,091 NA 1,275 Other 6/ : 568 519 515 515 Total supply : 11,877 12,284 NA 12,180 : Exports 2/7/ : 230 125 175 175 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,066 10,215 10,385 10,385 Domestic food use : 9,872 10,090 10,225 10,225 Other 8/ : 194 125 160 160 Miscellaneous 9/ : (58) 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,238 10,340 10,560 10,560 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,639 1,944 NA 1,620 Private : 1,639 1,647 NA 780-810 CCC 10/ : 0 297 NA 810-840 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.0 18.8 NA 15.3 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2000/01 are based on October Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1999/2000 (projected 2000/01): FL 1,976 (1,943); HI 320 (300); LA 1,680 (1,650); TX 105 (180); PR 4 (23). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2000/01 available TRQ assumes shortfall of 65,000 tons. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ For 1998/99, includes residual statistical discrepancies. 10/ For 2000/01, assumes 260,000 tons to 290,000 tons are paid out for the Payment-In-Kind Diversion Program. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-367-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.39 14.87 15.53 15.53 Harvested : 10.68 13.42 14.12 13.54 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 625 607 622 620 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.89 3.94 3.95 3.92 Production : 13.92 16.97 18.32 17.49 Imports : 0.44 0.10 0.08 0.08 Supply, total : 18.25 21.00 22.34 21.48 Domestic use : 10.40 10.24 10.20 10.10 Exports : 4.34 6.75 7.90 7.60 Use, total : 14.75 16.99 18.10 17.70 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.44 0.09 0.04 -0.02 Ending stocks : 3.94 3.92 4.20 3.80 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 60.2 45.0 51.3 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Average for August 2000. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2000/01 is 22.2 percent. WASDE-367-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 138.73 588.39 121.01 107.05 590.76 122.91 136.35 United States : 19.66 69.33 2.80 10.73 37.69 28.36 25.74 Total foreign : 119.06 519.06 118.21 96.32 553.08 94.54 110.61 Major exporters 4/ : 22.26 161.67 25.41 53.36 106.15 75.03 28.16 Argentina : 0.42 12.40 0.03 0.25 4.15 8.40 0.30 Australia : 1.35 22.11 0.06 2.70 5.11 16.00 2.40 Canada : 5.99 24.08 0.15 4.10 8.08 14.71 7.44 EU-15 : 14.50 103.09 25.17 46.31 88.81 35.93 18.02 Major importers 5/ : 50.49 178.61 36.17 18.76 212.08 5.71 47.48 Brazil : 0.55 2.19 7.30 0.20 9.26 0.01 0.78 China : 33.46 109.73 0.83 5.00 115.57 0.54 27.90 East. Europe : 7.64 33.23 2.13 11.95 31.50 4.51 7.00 N. Africa : 4.41 14.20 16.82 0.31 28.34 0.23 6.85 Pakistan : 3.21 18.69 3.13 0.40 21.28 0.00 3.75 Selected other : India : 10.08 66.35 1.99 0.35 67.34 0.00 11.08 FSU-12 6/ : 17.24 56.13 5.42 16.57 64.40 8.75 5.65 Russia : 8.00 27.00 2.49 11.15 34.84 1.65 1.00 Kazakstan : 3.00 4.70 0.02 1.10 4.62 2.30 0.80 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 136.35 585.93 127.83 104.02 594.13 128.14 128.16 United States : 25.74 62.57 2.57 7.72 35.38 29.65 25.85 Total foreign : 110.61 523.37 125.26 96.30 558.74 98.48 102.32 Major exporters 4/ : 28.16 162.94 25.75 54.55 106.88 83.19 26.78 Argentina : 0.30 15.10 0.03 0.30 4.20 10.80 0.43 Australia : 2.40 24.10 0.05 3.20 5.63 17.00 3.93 Canada : 7.44 26.85 0.18 3.90 7.90 19.17 7.40 EU-15 : 18.02 96.89 25.50 47.15 89.15 36.23 15.03 Major importers 5/ : 47.48 175.17 34.07 17.86 213.53 4.64 38.55 Brazil : 0.78 2.50 7.20 0.20 9.53 0.00 0.95 China : 27.90 113.88 1.01 5.00 117.00 0.54 25.25 East. Europe : 7.00 28.65 2.15 11.05 30.47 3.53 3.80 N. Africa : 6.85 11.71 15.75 0.31 28.99 0.17 5.15 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.00 0.40 21.40 0.00 2.20 Selected other : India : 11.08 70.78 1.70 0.35 69.25 0.20 14.11 FSU-12 6/ : 5.65 65.19 7.79 16.96 65.31 6.81 6.52 Russia : 1.00 31.00 4.80 11.30 35.50 0.30 1.00 Kazakstan : 0.80 11.20 0.02 1.50 5.00 4.50 2.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-367-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 127.11 583.15 125.93 103.01 596.67 127.46 113.60 October : 128.16 579.91 124.63 103.09 596.68 126.16 111.39 United States : September : 25.86 62.66 2.72 6.12 34.05 30.62 26.57 October : 25.85 60.94 2.72 6.80 34.73 30.62 24.17 Total foreign : September : 101.26 520.50 123.21 96.89 562.62 96.84 87.03 October : 102.32 518.97 121.91 96.29 561.95 95.54 87.23 Major exporters 4/ : September : 26.04 168.74 24.80 57.90 110.93 83.90 24.76 October : 26.78 166.59 25.00 57.95 111.13 82.40 24.85 Argentina Sep : 0.33 15.50 0.03 0.45 4.75 10.50 0.60 Oct : 0.43 15.50 0.03 0.30 4.35 11.00 0.60 Australia Sep : 3.43 23.00 0.05 3.40 5.75 18.00 2.73 Oct : 3.93 21.00 0.05 3.30 5.75 16.50 2.73 Canada Sep : 7.26 26.00 0.15 4.30 8.20 18.50 6.71 Oct : 7.40 25.50 0.15 4.20 8.20 18.00 6.85 EU-15 Sep : 15.03 104.24 24.58 49.75 92.23 36.90 14.73 Oct : 15.03 104.60 24.78 50.15 92.83 36.90 14.68 Major importers 5/ : September : 38.40 162.57 36.88 14.16 209.66 3.85 24.35 October : 38.55 162.88 35.63 14.06 209.46 4.05 23.55 Brazil Sep : 0.95 1.80 7.70 0.20 9.65 0.00 0.80 Oct : 0.95 1.80 7.70 0.20 9.65 0.00 0.80 China Sep : 25.25 102.00 3.00 2.00 114.00 0.50 15.75 Oct : 25.25 102.00 2.00 2.00 114.00 0.50 14.75 East. Europe Sep : 3.80 27.90 2.73 10.25 29.40 2.28 2.75 Oct : 3.80 27.75 2.88 10.15 29.30 2.48 2.65 N. Africa Sep : 5.00 9.28 17.50 0.31 28.91 0.17 2.70 Oct : 5.15 9.73 17.00 0.31 28.71 0.17 3.00 Pakistan Sep : 2.20 21.00 0.05 0.50 21.50 0.50 1.25 Oct : 2.20 21.00 0.15 0.50 21.60 0.50 1.25 Selected other : India Sep : 14.11 74.30 0.05 0.50 71.50 0.50 16.46 Oct : 14.11 74.30 0.05 0.50 71.50 0.50 16.46 FSU-12 6/ Sep : 6.52 65.51 5.49 17.76 65.82 4.60 7.10 Oct : 6.52 65.84 5.74 17.41 65.40 5.10 7.60 Russia Sep : 1.00 36.50 2.50 12.70 37.00 0.50 2.50 Oct : 1.00 36.50 2.50 12.70 37.00 0.50 2.50 Kazakstan Sep : 2.52 8.00 0.02 1.50 5.00 3.50 2.03 Oct : 2.52 9.00 0.02 1.50 5.00 4.00 2.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-367-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 147.88 889.82 108.37 570.76 867.25 107.43 170.44 United States : 38.15 271.47 3.07 152.38 205.37 55.95 51.37 Total foreign : 109.72 618.34 105.30 418.38 661.88 51.49 119.07 Major exporters 4/ : 8.66 62.06 1.59 35.43 46.76 17.41 8.14 Argentina : 2.44 17.75 0.01 8.05 10.03 8.58 1.59 Australia : 1.14 9.60 0.02 3.86 5.12 4.98 0.66 Canada : 4.27 26.57 0.83 20.12 23.58 3.21 4.88 Major importers 5/ : 41.49 200.04 65.41 173.22 237.71 26.59 42.63 EU-15 : 21.99 105.55 17.34 73.16 97.33 23.23 24.31 East. Europe : 10.21 51.24 1.64 39.95 51.61 3.09 8.39 Japan : 2.64 0.15 20.92 16.55 21.27 0.00 2.44 Mexico : 2.85 24.70 9.10 17.47 33.50 0.02 3.13 Southeast Asia : 0.95 15.94 3.12 13.33 18.06 0.25 1.70 South Korea : 0.50 0.49 7.83 6.10 8.33 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 37.08 144.19 2.62 90.40 127.90 3.36 52.63 FSU-12 6/ : 12.32 37.97 1.51 26.45 45.04 2.30 4.45 Russia : 7.42 18.95 1.19 13.62 25.64 0.14 1.78 Ukraine : 3.31 10.35 0.04 6.18 10.58 1.62 1.50 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 170.44 875.99 112.17 580.55 880.96 116.34 165.48 United States : 51.37 263.34 2.77 157.53 212.50 56.19 48.80 Total foreign : 119.07 612.65 109.40 423.02 668.46 60.15 116.68 Major exporters 4/ : 8.14 66.54 1.30 34.33 47.67 18.32 9.99 Argentina : 1.59 20.71 0.01 7.39 10.63 9.70 1.98 Australia : 0.66 8.01 0.02 3.34 4.47 3.67 0.55 Canada : 4.88 26.77 0.73 19.20 23.68 3.46 5.24 Major importers 5/ : 42.63 201.06 67.08 176.89 241.45 29.24 40.09 EU-15 : 24.31 103.05 16.16 72.62 96.60 25.90 21.02 East. Europe : 8.39 54.60 1.77 40.70 52.74 3.20 8.81 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.54 16.32 20.88 0.00 2.31 Mexico : 3.13 25.95 9.34 18.99 34.99 0.02 3.41 Southeast Asia : 1.70 14.86 4.29 14.25 19.18 0.13 1.54 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 9.05 6.95 9.21 0.00 0.81 Selected other : China : 52.63 138.63 2.55 92.60 130.16 10.03 53.62 FSU-12 6/ : 4.45 40.35 2.38 26.60 41.87 1.77 3.54 Russia : 1.78 21.80 1.96 14.62 24.66 0.15 0.72 Ukraine : 1.50 9.95 0.06 6.17 9.37 0.85 1.28 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-367-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 167.31 881.73 110.59 584.21 885.10 114.09 163.94 October : 165.48 862.98 111.39 587.37 887.29 115.28 141.17 United States : September : 50.18 285.51 2.73 158.29 214.70 61.63 62.09 October : 48.80 280.08 2.73 160.67 217.08 63.66 50.87 Total foreign : September : 117.13 596.22 107.86 425.91 670.40 52.46 101.85 October : 116.68 582.91 108.66 426.70 670.21 51.62 90.31 Major exporters 4/ : September : 9.30 65.92 1.30 36.58 48.85 18.89 8.79 October : 9.99 62.09 1.60 36.04 47.94 17.84 7.91 Argentina Sep : 1.78 20.82 0.01 8.71 10.90 9.85 1.86 Oct : 1.98 19.82 0.01 8.51 10.70 9.35 1.76 Australia Sep : 0.62 9.21 0.02 3.70 4.68 4.26 0.90 Oct : 0.55 8.91 0.02 3.68 4.66 3.96 0.85 Canada Sep : 5.05 26.48 1.05 19.79 24.37 3.78 4.43 Oct : 5.24 24.45 1.35 19.47 23.68 3.53 3.82 Major importers 5/ : September : 39.87 190.40 66.00 171.64 236.02 26.98 33.27 October : 40.09 190.90 65.85 171.79 236.37 27.03 33.44 EU-15 Sep : 21.02 107.73 15.92 75.30 99.59 26.07 19.01 Oct : 21.02 108.15 15.82 75.28 99.61 26.07 19.31 East. Europe Sep : 8.81 39.25 2.12 32.56 44.62 0.80 4.75 Oct : 8.81 39.03 1.82 32.17 44.45 0.80 4.40 Japan Sep : 2.31 0.16 19.99 15.87 20.28 0.00 2.18 Oct : 2.31 0.16 19.99 15.87 20.28 0.00 2.18 Mexico Sep : 3.31 26.00 9.53 19.44 35.23 0.02 3.60 Oct : 3.41 26.00 9.53 19.64 35.33 0.02 3.60 Southeast Asia Sep : 1.43 14.86 3.75 14.02 18.85 0.10 1.08 Oct : 1.54 15.16 4.20 14.67 19.45 0.15 1.30 South Korea Sep : 0.81 0.49 8.65 7.15 9.36 0.00 0.60 Oct : 0.81 0.49 8.45 6.85 9.16 0.00 0.60 Selected other : China Sep : 54.62 124.60 2.65 95.07 132.35 4.03 45.48 Oct : 53.62 114.60 2.65 95.07 132.35 4.03 34.48 FSU-12 6/ Sep : 3.54 44.66 0.85 27.22 42.90 1.51 4.63 Oct : 3.54 45.27 0.80 27.32 43.11 1.71 4.78 Russia Sep : 0.72 25.75 0.53 14.70 24.68 0.30 2.02 Oct : 0.72 26.00 0.53 14.80 24.93 0.30 2.02 Ukraine Sep : 1.28 10.20 0.11 6.58 9.85 0.70 1.04 Oct : 1.28 10.70 0.06 6.68 9.95 0.90 1.19 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-367-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 98.09 605.55 75.55 401.96 580.72 75.51 122.92 United States : 33.22 247.88 0.48 138.98 185.88 50.31 45.39 Total foreign : 64.87 357.67 75.08 262.98 394.84 25.20 77.53 Major exporters 4/ : 2.36 21.22 0.57 8.00 13.89 8.53 1.73 Argentina : 1.54 13.50 0.00 4.85 6.45 7.88 0.71 South Africa : 0.82 7.72 0.57 3.15 7.44 0.65 1.02 Major importers 5/ : 17.96 94.62 50.21 94.50 134.42 11.68 16.69 EU-15 : 4.47 35.30 11.77 30.12 38.95 8.93 3.66 Japan : 1.45 0.00 16.34 12.10 16.44 0.00 1.36 Mexico : 1.50 17.79 5.62 7.51 23.04 0.02 1.85 Southeast Asia : 0.95 15.74 3.12 13.14 17.85 0.25 1.70 South Korea : 0.50 0.08 7.52 5.92 7.62 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 35.98 132.95 0.26 87.00 114.30 3.34 51.55 FSU-12 6/ : 2.73 5.35 0.62 4.31 6.91 0.43 1.35 Russia : 0.55 0.80 0.52 1.05 1.71 0.01 0.15 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.92 605.30 78.54 420.39 602.60 81.51 125.62 United States : 45.39 239.72 0.38 144.17 192.77 49.15 43.57 Total foreign : 77.53 365.58 78.16 276.21 409.83 32.36 82.05 Major exporters 4/ : 1.73 26.78 0.35 9.10 15.02 10.50 3.34 Argentina : 0.71 16.20 0.00 5.00 6.80 9.00 1.11 South Africa : 1.02 10.58 0.35 4.10 8.22 1.50 2.23 Major importers 5/ : 16.69 101.83 50.48 100.22 139.83 10.88 18.29 EU-15 : 3.66 37.22 10.70 31.41 39.91 7.96 3.70 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.25 12.15 16.35 0.00 1.26 Mexico : 1.85 19.00 4.60 7.65 23.10 0.02 2.34 Southeast Asia : 1.70 14.66 4.29 14.06 18.98 0.13 1.54 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.50 6.50 8.25 0.00 0.81 Selected other : China : 51.55 128.08 0.15 90.00 116.95 10.00 52.83 FSU-12 6/ : 1.35 4.95 0.81 4.55 6.20 0.15 0.76 Russia : 0.15 1.10 0.70 1.15 1.85 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-367-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 127.90 607.17 77.30 425.27 607.42 78.96 127.65 October : 125.62 592.36 78.95 429.37 612.68 81.11 105.29 United States : September : 44.94 263.22 0.25 146.06 196.22 55.25 56.94 October : 43.57 258.88 0.25 148.60 198.76 57.79 46.15 Total foreign : September : 82.96 343.95 77.05 279.21 411.20 23.72 70.71 October : 82.05 333.47 78.70 280.77 413.92 23.33 59.14 Major exporters 4/ : September : 2.76 25.50 0.05 9.50 15.50 10.20 2.61 October : 3.34 24.00 0.05 9.30 15.30 9.70 2.39 Argentina Sep : 0.91 16.50 0.00 5.40 7.20 9.20 1.01 Oct : 1.11 15.50 0.00 5.20 7.00 8.70 0.91 South Africa Sep : 1.85 9.00 0.05 4.10 8.30 1.00 1.60 Oct : 2.23 8.50 0.05 4.10 8.30 1.00 1.48 Major importers 5/ : September : 18.18 92.23 50.32 97.43 137.25 8.68 14.79 October : 18.29 92.50 50.77 98.19 138.18 8.73 14.65 EU-15 Sep : 3.70 38.54 10.68 31.93 40.81 7.92 4.19 Oct : 3.70 38.54 10.68 31.93 40.81 7.92 4.19 Japan Sep : 1.26 0.00 16.10 12.10 16.15 0.00 1.21 Oct : 1.26 0.00 16.30 12.30 16.35 0.00 1.21 Mexico Sep : 2.34 19.00 5.50 8.90 24.10 0.02 2.72 Oct : 2.34 19.00 5.80 9.30 24.40 0.02 2.72 Southeast Asia Sep : 1.43 14.66 3.75 13.83 18.65 0.10 1.08 Oct : 1.54 14.96 4.20 14.48 19.25 0.15 1.30 South Korea Sep : 0.81 0.09 8.20 6.80 8.50 0.00 0.60 Oct : 0.81 0.09 8.00 6.50 8.30 0.00 0.60 Selected other : China Sep : 53.83 115.00 0.15 93.00 120.00 4.00 44.98 Oct : 52.83 105.00 0.15 93.00 120.00 4.00 33.98 FSU-12 6/ Sep : 0.76 5.83 0.26 4.34 5.95 0.15 0.75 Oct : 0.76 5.71 0.26 4.24 5.82 0.15 0.75 Russia Sep : 0.10 2.00 0.20 1.40 2.10 0.00 0.20 Oct : 0.10 2.00 0.20 1.40 2.10 0.00 0.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-367-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 3/ : 54.73 393.98 25.96 388.68 26.89 60.03 United States : 0.88 5.80 0.33 3.63 2.68 0.69 Total foreign : 53.85 388.18 25.63 385.04 24.20 59.33 Major exporters 4/ : 11.67 125.96 0.07 108.27 16.42 13.01 Thailand : 1.05 15.18 0.00 8.90 6.68 0.65 Vietnam : 0.00 20.11 0.06 15.61 4.56 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 7.03 52.71 12.61 61.84 1.38 9.12 Indonesia : 3.53 32.10 3.90 35.50 0.00 4.03 Selected other : China : 26.72 139.10 0.17 136.00 2.71 27.29 Japan : 3.05 8.15 0.65 9.10 0.20 2.55 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 3/ : 60.03 402.45 21.32 399.73 23.44 62.74 United States : 0.69 6.46 0.32 3.85 2.76 0.86 Total foreign : 59.33 395.99 21.00 395.88 20.68 61.88 Major exporters 4/ : 13.01 129.81 0.09 112.54 12.45 17.92 Thailand : 0.65 15.65 0.00 9.00 6.00 1.30 Vietnam : 0.00 20.75 0.04 17.39 3.40 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 9.12 53.60 9.57 62.94 1.37 7.97 Indonesia : 4.03 32.10 2.00 35.70 0.00 2.43 Selected other : China : 27.29 138.94 0.20 137.00 3.20 26.23 Japan : 2.55 8.35 0.72 9.45 0.15 2.02 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 63.13 397.46 24.01 401.24 24.91 59.35 October : 62.74 397.33 24.30 401.44 25.09 58.64 United States : September : 0.86 6.04 0.33 3.87 2.52 0.84 October : 0.86 6.06 0.33 3.87 2.52 0.85 Total foreign : September : 62.27 391.42 23.68 397.37 22.39 58.51 October : 61.88 391.28 23.98 397.56 22.57 57.79 Major exporters 4/ : September : 18.32 129.40 0.09 113.34 14.10 20.37 October : 17.92 129.40 0.09 113.34 14.10 19.97 Thailand Sep : 1.70 15.85 0.00 9.10 6.60 1.85 Oct : 1.30 15.85 0.00 9.10 6.60 1.45 Vietnam Sep : 0.00 20.75 0.04 16.79 4.00 0.00 Oct : 0.00 20.75 0.04 16.79 4.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : September : 7.98 52.55 11.40 63.88 1.29 6.76 October : 7.97 52.55 11.40 63.88 1.29 6.75 Indonesia Sep : 2.43 32.10 3.00 36.00 0.00 1.53 Oct : 2.43 32.10 3.00 36.00 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China Sep : 26.43 136.50 0.25 136.75 3.20 23.23 Oct : 26.23 136.50 0.25 136.75 3.40 22.83 Japan Sep : 1.77 8.00 0.75 9.10 0.40 1.02 Oct : 2.02 8.10 0.75 9.25 0.50 1.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-367-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 24.78 159.83 40.24 135.71 159.99 38.66 26.20 United States : 5.44 74.60 0.08 43.26 48.74 21.90 9.48 Total foreign : 19.34 85.23 40.16 92.45 111.25 16.76 16.71 Major exporters 3/ : 13.74 54.30 1.10 39.17 42.14 14.46 12.53 Argentina : 7.23 20.00 0.50 17.51 18.27 3.23 6.22 Brazil : 6.50 31.30 0.60 21.01 23.17 8.93 6.30 Major importers 4/ : 4.97 18.63 31.72 37.96 50.82 0.88 3.62 EU-15 : 1.00 1.54 16.77 16.23 17.77 0.70 0.85 Japan : 0.63 0.16 4.81 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.62 China : 3.02 15.15 3.85 12.61 19.93 0.18 1.91 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 26.20 157.18 47.55 137.00 160.76 46.90 23.28 United States : 9.48 72.22 0.11 42.97 47.59 26.40 7.83 Total foreign : 16.71 84.96 47.44 94.03 113.17 20.50 15.45 Major exporters 3/ : 12.53 55.60 1.70 38.85 41.87 18.20 9.76 Argentina : 6.22 20.70 1.00 17.20 17.97 4.80 5.15 Brazil : 6.30 32.00 0.70 21.00 23.20 11.20 4.60 Major importers 4/ : 3.62 17.43 37.86 40.02 52.95 0.92 5.04 EU-15 : 0.85 1.14 16.25 15.59 16.78 0.71 0.74 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.85 3.73 5.01 0.00 0.64 China : 1.91 14.29 9.70 14.82 22.32 0.20 3.38 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 23.41 166.57 45.43 141.02 164.77 45.34 25.29 October : 23.28 166.23 45.16 140.98 165.24 45.09 24.34 United States : September : 7.20 78.91 0.08 44.36 49.05 27.22 9.93 October : 7.83 76.82 0.08 43.95 48.54 26.26 9.93 Total foreign : September : 16.21 87.65 45.34 96.66 115.72 18.13 15.36 October : 15.45 89.41 45.08 97.03 116.70 18.83 14.41 Major exporters 3/ : September : 9.56 57.30 1.00 39.25 42.25 15.90 9.71 October : 9.76 59.10 1.00 40.05 43.18 16.60 10.09 Argentina Sep : 4.65 21.50 0.50 17.00 17.75 4.20 4.70 Oct : 5.15 22.60 0.50 17.80 18.58 4.40 5.28 Brazil Sep : 4.90 32.80 0.50 21.60 23.80 9.40 5.00 Oct : 4.60 33.50 0.50 21.60 23.90 9.90 4.80 Major importers 4/ : September : 6.01 18.19 35.99 41.46 54.30 0.88 5.00 October : 5.04 18.19 35.75 41.09 54.42 0.88 3.67 EU-15 Sep : 0.79 1.14 16.44 15.75 16.94 0.71 0.70 Oct : 0.74 1.14 16.09 15.47 16.58 0.71 0.67 Japan Sep : 0.64 0.19 4.70 3.67 4.96 0.00 0.58 Oct : 0.64 0.19 4.75 3.72 5.00 0.00 0.58 China Sep : 4.31 15.00 7.25 15.95 22.97 0.15 3.44 Oct : 3.38 15.00 7.25 15.75 23.35 0.15 2.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-367-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 3.63 107.65 39.37 107.07 39.06 4.53 United States : 0.20 34.28 0.09 27.81 6.46 0.30 Total foreign : 3.44 73.37 39.28 79.26 32.60 4.23 Major exporters 3/ : 1.31 34.81 0.10 8.46 26.35 1.41 Argentina : 0.36 14.00 0.00 0.46 13.40 0.50 Brazil : 0.94 16.60 0.10 6.65 10.15 0.84 India : 0.00 4.21 0.00 1.34 2.80 0.07 Major importers 4/ : 0.94 24.20 26.69 45.59 5.06 1.18 EU-15 : 0.75 12.91 20.05 27.76 5.04 0.92 China : 0.00 10.02 1.40 11.41 0.01 0.00 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.53 108.99 39.16 109.68 38.92 4.08 United States : 0.30 34.13 0.05 27.62 6.64 0.20 Total foreign : 4.23 74.86 39.12 82.05 32.28 3.88 Major exporters 3/ : 1.41 34.05 0.10 8.55 25.70 1.30 Argentina : 0.50 14.02 0.00 0.47 13.60 0.45 Brazil : 0.84 16.59 0.10 6.92 9.75 0.85 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 25.80 26.20 46.92 5.18 1.08 EU-15 : 0.92 12.42 19.99 27.35 5.14 0.84 China : 0.00 11.78 0.54 12.31 0.01 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 4.30 111.83 39.54 112.39 39.22 4.05 October : 4.08 112.11 39.81 112.55 39.57 3.88 United States : September : 0.25 35.14 0.06 28.49 6.71 0.25 October : 0.20 34.84 0.06 28.30 6.58 0.23 Total foreign : September : 4.05 76.69 39.48 83.91 32.51 3.80 October : 3.88 77.26 39.75 84.25 32.99 3.66 Major exporters 3/ : September : 1.32 34.53 0.10 8.65 26.04 1.26 October : 1.30 35.30 0.10 8.86 26.52 1.32 Argentina Sep : 0.43 13.75 0.00 0.48 13.24 0.46 Oct : 0.45 14.51 0.00 0.49 14.00 0.48 Brazil Sep : 0.90 17.07 0.10 6.96 10.30 0.80 Oct : 0.85 17.07 0.10 7.15 10.02 0.84 India Sep : 0.00 3.72 0.00 1.22 2.50 0.00 Oct : 0.00 3.72 0.00 1.22 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : September : 1.23 26.70 26.54 48.34 5.08 1.05 October : 1.08 26.46 26.67 48.22 5.08 0.91 EU-15 Sep : 0.89 12.52 19.72 27.31 5.06 0.76 Oct : 0.84 12.31 19.72 27.14 5.06 0.67 China Sep : 0.00 12.68 1.00 13.67 0.02 0.00 Oct : 0.00 12.53 1.00 13.51 0.02 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-367-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 2.35 24.64 7.86 24.58 8.07 2.21 United States : 0.63 8.20 0.04 7.10 1.08 0.69 Total foreign : 1.72 16.44 7.82 17.47 6.99 1.52 Major exporters 3/ : 0.90 10.02 0.85 4.79 6.15 0.82 Argentina : 0.33 3.16 0.00 0.11 3.08 0.31 Brazil : 0.41 3.93 0.21 2.85 1.38 0.32 EU-15 : 0.16 2.93 0.64 1.84 1.69 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 3.02 2.19 5.29 0.08 0.21 China : 0.35 2.05 0.95 3.08 0.08 0.19 Pakistan : 0.02 0.00 0.41 0.41 0.00 0.02 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.21 24.77 7.10 24.31 7.33 2.44 United States : 0.69 8.09 0.04 7.30 0.62 0.89 Total foreign : 1.52 16.68 7.06 17.01 6.71 1.55 Major exporters 3/ : 0.82 9.84 0.78 4.82 5.79 0.82 Argentina : 0.31 3.11 0.00 0.11 2.98 0.33 Brazil : 0.32 3.93 0.22 2.99 1.15 0.32 EU-15 : 0.20 2.80 0.56 1.73 1.66 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.21 1.40 4.43 0.08 0.31 China : 0.19 2.41 0.57 2.80 0.08 0.30 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 2.42 25.49 7.59 25.78 7.48 2.23 October : 2.44 25.49 7.65 25.69 7.64 2.25 United States : September : 0.85 8.39 0.04 7.55 0.82 0.92 October : 0.89 8.31 0.04 7.48 0.86 0.90 Total foreign : September : 1.56 17.10 7.55 18.23 6.66 1.31 October : 1.55 17.18 7.61 18.21 6.78 1.35 Major exporters 3/ : September : 0.84 9.96 0.71 4.98 5.78 0.74 October : 0.82 10.04 0.75 4.92 5.89 0.80 Argentina Sep : 0.27 3.07 0.00 0.11 2.98 0.25 Oct : 0.33 3.22 0.00 0.11 3.10 0.34 Brazil Sep : 0.39 4.04 0.15 3.02 1.25 0.32 Oct : 0.32 4.04 0.19 3.05 1.20 0.31 EU-15 Sep : 0.18 2.85 0.56 1.86 1.55 0.17 Oct : 0.17 2.78 0.56 1.76 1.59 0.16 Major importers 4/ : September : 0.31 3.44 1.85 5.32 0.05 0.23 October : 0.31 3.42 1.78 5.26 0.05 0.20 China Sep : 0.30 2.58 0.90 3.50 0.05 0.23 Oct : 0.30 2.54 0.80 3.40 0.05 0.20 Pakistan Sep : 0.01 0.01 0.25 0.26 0.00 0.01 Oct : 0.01 0.03 0.28 0.31 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-367-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World : 43.71 84.72 25.18 85.05 23.74 -0.25 45.08 United States : 3.89 13.92 0.44 10.40 4.34 -0.44 3.94 Total foreign : 39.83 70.81 24.73 74.65 19.39 0.19 41.14 Major exporters 5/ : 12.40 37.68 1.64 23.80 15.34 -0.03 12.60 Pakistan : 1.52 6.30 0.93 7.00 0.01 0.03 1.71 India : 4.17 12.73 0.51 12.62 0.20 0.00 4.59 Central Asia 6/ : 1.56 6.60 0.01 1.24 5.39 0.00 1.54 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.92 4.03 4/ 0.26 3.57 0.00 1.11 S. Hemis. 8/ : 3.05 5.40 0.20 1.18 4.88 -0.08 2.66 Australia : 1.63 3.29 4/ 0.19 3.04 -0.10 1.79 Argentina : 1.04 0.92 0.02 0.38 1.10 0.01 0.49 Major importers : 25.65 30.05 17.95 43.83 2.81 0.21 26.80 Brazil : 1.49 2.10 1.36 3.60 0.03 0.00 1.32 Mexico : 0.36 1.04 1.49 2.15 0.22 0.04 0.49 China : 19.96 20.70 0.36 19.20 0.68 0.00 21.13 Europe : 1.69 2.30 5.34 6.21 1.39 0.09 1.65 Turkey : 0.56 3.86 1.14 4.60 0.36 0.00 0.59 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.05 8.27 8.07 0.14 0.09 1.62 Indonesia : 0.14 0.01 2.33 2.20 0.00 0.04 0.24 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.47 1.46 0.04 0.00 0.41 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World : 45.08 87.03 27.13 91.24 27.26 0.26 40.47 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.24 6.75 0.09 3.92 Total foreign : 41.14 70.06 27.03 81.00 20.51 0.17 36.55 Major exporters 5/ : 12.60 39.75 1.99 25.19 15.66 -0.03 13.51 Pakistan : 1.71 8.60 0.37 7.65 0.50 0.03 2.51 India : 4.59 12.30 1.20 13.30 0.05 0.00 4.74 Central Asia 6/ : 1.54 7.31 0.01 1.38 5.72 0.00 1.75 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.11 3.84 4/ 0.26 3.57 0.00 1.13 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.66 5.17 0.28 1.21 4.45 -0.08 2.53 Australia : 1.79 3.25 4/ 0.19 3.21 -0.10 1.74 Argentina : 0.49 0.62 0.05 0.40 0.38 0.01 0.36 Major importers : 26.80 27.52 18.83 48.02 3.78 0.20 21.14 Brazil : 1.32 2.90 1.30 3.95 0.05 0.00 1.52 Mexico : 0.49 0.67 1.85 2.40 0.15 0.03 0.43 China : 21.13 17.60 0.12 22.20 1.70 0.00 14.95 Europe : 1.65 2.63 5.20 6.02 1.56 0.08 1.82 Turkey : 0.59 3.68 1.90 5.40 0.18 0.00 0.59 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.62 0.04 8.46 8.06 0.15 0.10 1.82 Indonesia : 0.24 0.01 2.00 1.95 0.02 0.05 0.24 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.53 1.48 0.04 0.00 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 1.38 million bales in 1998/99 and 2.13 million in 1999/2000. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-367-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World : September : 39.92 86.75 28.01 92.57 27.45 0.31 34.35 October : 40.47 86.90 27.22 92.70 26.75 0.15 34.99 United States : September : 3.95 18.32 0.08 10.20 7.90 0.04 4.20 October : 3.92 17.49 0.08 10.10 7.60 -0.02 3.80 Total foreign : September : 35.97 68.43 27.94 82.37 19.55 0.27 30.15 October : 36.55 69.41 27.15 82.60 19.15 0.17 31.19 Major exporters 5/ : September : 12.73 38.46 1.68 25.50 15.56 0.07 11.72 October : 13.51 38.95 1.58 25.98 15.36 -0.03 12.73 Pakistan Sep : 2.46 7.70 0.30 7.60 0.50 0.03 2.33 Oct : 2.51 8.30 0.15 8.00 0.60 0.03 2.33 India Sep : 4.74 12.30 0.95 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.34 Oct : 4.74 12.30 1.00 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.39 Central Asia 6/Sep : 1.77 6.81 0.01 1.48 5.57 0.00 1.54 Oct : 1.75 6.81 0.01 1.51 5.42 0.00 1.65 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Sep : 1.13 3.67 4/ 0.25 3.53 0.00 1.01 Oct : 1.13 3.51 4/ 0.25 3.33 0.00 1.06 S. Hemis 8/ Sep : 1.77 5.76 0.22 1.22 4.72 0.02 1.80 Oct : 2.53 5.81 0.22 1.27 4.77 -0.08 2.60 Australia Sep : 1.02 3.50 4/ 0.20 3.25 0.00 1.07 Oct : 1.74 3.40 4/ 0.20 3.20 -0.10 1.84 Argentina Sep : 0.35 0.85 0.02 0.42 0.50 0.01 0.29 Oct : 0.36 0.85 0.02 0.45 0.50 0.01 0.28 Major importers Sep : 21.32 26.93 20.00 48.84 2.76 0.20 16.46 Oct : 21.14 27.63 19.31 48.61 2.75 0.20 16.53 Brazil Sep : 1.52 3.20 1.10 4.20 0.09 0.00 1.53 Oct : 1.52 3.40 1.00 4.20 0.09 0.00 1.63 Mexico Sep : 0.43 0.30 2.30 2.50 0.08 0.03 0.43 Oct : 0.43 0.30 2.30 2.50 0.08 0.03 0.43 China Sep : 14.95 17.50 0.70 22.20 0.70 0.00 10.25 Oct : 14.95 18.00 0.70 22.50 0.70 0.00 10.45 Europe Sep : 2.12 2.38 5.52 6.31 1.63 0.08 2.01 Oct : 1.82 2.38 5.40 6.14 1.61 0.08 1.78 Turkey Sep : 0.59 3.50 2.10 5.50 0.14 0.00 0.55 Oct : 0.59 3.50 2.10 5.50 0.14 0.00 0.55 Sel. Asia 9/ Sep : 1.70 0.05 8.29 8.13 0.12 0.10 1.68 Oct : 1.82 0.05 7.81 7.78 0.13 0.10 1.68 Indonesia Sep : 0.26 0.01 2.10 2.05 0.00 0.05 0.27 Oct : 0.24 0.01 2.10 2.05 0.01 0.05 0.25 S. Korea Sep : 0.42 4/ 1.50 1.50 0.04 0.00 0.39 Oct : 0.42 4/ 1.40 1.40 0.04 0.00 0.39 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.13 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-367-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1999 : IV : 6522 5110 11756 7367 1393 8894 20650 1786 40.4 Annual : 26386 19278 46134 29741 5297 35590 81724 6912 162.7 : 2000 : I : 6653 4824 11595 7602 1284 9019 20614 1754 42.6 II : 6697 4470 11279 7755 1392 9286 20565 1743 43.2 III : 6910 4600 11613 7600 1350 9090 20703 1750 41.2 IV *: 6550 4975 11633 7600 1425 9165 20798 1805 41.3 Annual : Sep Proj : 26775 18869 46084 30706 5452 36699 82783 7062 167.7 Oct Proj : 26810 18869 46120 30557 5452 36560 82680 7052 168.2 : 2001 : I *: 6500 4775 11386 7800 1325 9265 20651 1775 42.9 II *: 6525 4550 11179 8000 1425 9570 20749 1765 43.6 III *: 6575 4750 11422 7950 1400 9490 20912 1780 41.1 Annual : Sep Proj : 25475 19050 44940 32000 5500 38065 83005 7155 167.5 Oct Proj : 25475 19350 45240 31650 5600 37815 83055 7155 168.7 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1999 : IV : 69.65 36.29 57.6 76.9 63.2 13.83 Annual : 65.56 34.00 58.1 69.0 65.6 14.36 : 2000 : I : 69.32 41.14 54.6 62.9 63.3 11.90 II : 71.59 50.43 55.7 69.0 62.1 12.03 III : 65.43 46.47 56.8 73.9 67.1 12.73 IV *: 68-70 39-41 54-56 77-79 68-70 12.80-13.20 Annual : Sep Proj : 68-69 44-45 55-56 70-71 64-65 12.35-12.55 Oct Proj : 68.84 44.51 55.5 71.0 65.4 12.35-12.45 : 2001 : I *: 68-72 41-45 51-55 60-64 61-65 11.45-12.15 II *: 71-77 43-47 52-56 63-69 58-62 10.70-11.70 III *: 72-78 42-46 53-57 66-72 62-68 11.50-12.50 Annual : Sep Proj : 71-77 41-45 52-56 65-71 59-63 12.20-13.20 Oct Proj : 71-77 40-43 52-56 65-71 61-66 11.65-12.55 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-367-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1999 : 393 26493 2874 29760 2411 411 26938 69.1 2000 Proj. Sep : 411 26881 3018 30310 2529 390 27391 69.6 Oct : 411 26916 3018 30345 2539 390 27416 69.7 2001 Proj. Sep : 390 25581 3050 29021 2455 365 26201 66.0 Oct : 390 25581 3050 29021 2465 365 26191 66.0 : PORK : 1999 : 584 19308 827 20720 1285 489 18945 53.9 2000 Proj. Sep : 489 18899 999 20387 1253 500 18634 52.5 Oct : 489 18899 999 20387 1253 525 18609 52.4 2001 Proj. Sep : 500 19080 1005 20585 1305 500 18780 52.5 Oct : 525 19380 1005 20910 1305 550 19055 53.2 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1999 : 994 46284 3813 51092 3701 914 46476 124.8 2000 Proj. Sep : 914 46233 4134 51281 3788 904 46589 123.9 Oct : 914 46269 4134 51317 3798 930 46589 123.9 2001 Proj. Sep : 904 45089 4169 50162 3764 879 45519 120.2 Oct : 930 45389 4169 50488 3774 929 45785 120.9 : BROILERS : 1999 : 711 29468 4 30183 4920 796 24468 77.0 2000 Proj. Sep : 796 30418 4 31218 5206 850 25162 78.5 Oct : 796 30270 4 31070 5256 850 24964 77.9 2001 Proj. Sep : 850 31670 4 32524 5200 880 26444 81.8 Oct : 850 31324 4 32178 5300 880 25998 80.4 : TURKEYS : 1999 : 304 5230 1 5535 379 254 4902 18.0 2000 Proj. Sep : 254 5382 1 5637 426 225 4986 18.1 Oct : 254 5382 1 5637 426 225 4986 18.1 2001 Proj. Sep : 225 5429 1 5655 420 275 4959 17.9 Oct : 225 5528 1 5754 420 275 5058 18.2 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1999 : 1022 35252 7 36281 5692 1058 29531 95.5 2000 Proj. Sep : 1058 36343 7 37408 5967 1080 30360 97.3 Oct : 1058 36205 7 37270 5987 1080 30202 96.9 2001 Proj. Sep : 1080 37664 7 38751 5980 1165 31604 100.4 Oct : 1080 37416 7 38503 6040 1165 31297 99.5 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1999 : 2016 81537 3820 87372 9393 1972 76007 220.3 2000 Proj. Sep : 1972 82576 4141 88689 9754 1984 76949 221.2 Oct : 1972 82474 4141 88587 9784 2010 76792 220.7 2001 Proj. Sep : 1984 82753 4176 88913 9744 2044 77123 220.5 Oct : 2010 82805 4176 88991 9814 2094 77082 220.4 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-367-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2000 Projected : 2001 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1998 : 1999 : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.4 8.4 7.6 7.6 6.5 10.0 Production : 6657.9 6912.0 7062.1 7052.1 7155.0 7155.0 Imports : 5.8 7.4 7.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 Total supply : 6671.2 6927.8 7076.7 7066.7 7166.5 7170.0 : Use : Exports : 218.8 161.7 162.8 160.8 170.0 170.0 Hatching use : 921.8 941.7 942.9 942.9 980.0 980.0 Ending stocks : 8.4 7.6 6.5 10.0 5.0 5.0 Consumption : Total : 5522.2 5816.8 5964.5 5953.0 6011.5 6015.0 Per capita (number) : 244.9 255.7 259.9 259.3 259.7 259.9 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Proj 1/: 2000/01 Proj 1/ Commodity :1997/98:1998/99:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.9 5.8 7.4 7.4 7.5 8.6 Production : 156.5 161.2 167.0 167.4 167.8 168.9 Farm use : 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 155.1 159.8 165.7 166.0 166.5 167.6 Imports 2/ : 4.1 4.8 4.4 4.7 3.9 4.2 Total cml. supply 2/ : 165.1 170.5 177.6 178.1 177.9 180.4 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 158.6 162.8 169.3 168.8 170.7 172.8 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.8 7.4 7.5 8.6 6.8 7.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.5 5.4 8.4 8.5 3.1 4.5 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 13.28 14.04 9.90- 9.99 10.15- 9.65- : 10.10 11.15 10.45 : Class IV : NA NA 11.35- 11.51 10.70- 10.35- : 11.65 11.90 11.35 : All milk 6/ : 14.65 15.38 12.50- 12.62 11.90- 11.60- : 12.70 12.90 12.40 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 21 1 11 11 15 12 Cheese : 8 6 17 17 6 10 Nonfat dry milk : 368 449 685 690 260 375 Dry whole milk : 15 12 34 34 0 3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-367-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 19-year record of the differences between the October projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the October projection and the final estimate have averaged 8.1 million tons (1.5%) ranging from -26.7 to 9.5 million tons. The October projection has been below the estimate 11 times and above 8 times. Reliability of October Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.5 8.1 -26.7 9.5 11 8 U.S. : 0.4 0.2 -1.2 0.5 9 8 Foreign : 1.8 8.1 -26.8 9.6 11 8 Exports : World : 3.5 4.0 -12.1 3.0 13 5 U.S. : 7.7 2.7 -10.0 5.2 7 12 Foreign : 4.7 3.8 -10.0 3.5 15 4 Domestic use : World : 1.3 6.9 -22.7 11.3 11 8 U.S. : 5.7 1.8 -3.3 3.6 8 11 Foreign : 1.3 6.6 -20.3 11.1 12 7 Ending stocks : World : 6.0 7.3 -23.8 13.5 12 7 U.S. : 9.9 2.4 -4.9 6.8 9 10 Foreign : 6.0 5.8 -22.8 7.5 12 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.3 10.7 -33.7 9.1 14 5 U.S. : 2.3 5.1 -14.5 17.9 13 6 Foreign : 1.4 8.5 -21.1 7.5 15 4 Exports : World : 5.8 6.0 -12.0 13.7 12 7 U.S. : 14.2 7.5 -14.9 15.5 10 9 Foreign : 11.2 5.6 -11.7 8.9 10 9 Domestic use : World : 1.2 10.1 -22.6 20.9 10 9 U.S. : 3.6 6.3 -13.4 17.0 9 10 Foreign : 1.3 8.5 -19.1 20.9 12 7 Ending stocks : World : 9.8 13.5 -39.0 14.9 14 5 U.S. : 18.1 9.8 -29.1 16.3 9 10 Foreign : 12.4 9.4 -21.4 7.2 16 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.4 7.9 -20.9 3.0 17 1 U.S. : 3.4 0.2 -0.4 0.5 10 9 Foreign : 2.4 7.9 -21.0 3.1 17 2 Exports : World : 8.8 1.6 -6.2 1.1 13 6 U.S. : 7.1 0.2 -0.8 0.6 9 8 Foreign : 10.6 1.6 -6.2 1.2 13 6 Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.6 -20.3 2.5 16 3 U.S. : 5.8 0.1 -0.4 0.4 11 8 Foreign : 1.7 5.6 -20.7 2.7 16 3 Ending stocks : World : 11.5 4.7 -14.0 3.2 14 5 U.S. : 17.6 0.2 -0.7 0.8 9 9 Foreign : 12.3 4.8 -14.1 3.0 14 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-367-32 Reliability of October Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.6 3.0 -8.9 4.5 10 9 U.S. : 2.7 1.5 -3.2 3.1 7 12 Foreign : 4.9 2.9 -9.5 4.0 10 9 Exports : World : 5.4 1.7 -5.5 2.5 14 5 U.S. : 9.0 1.8 -2.9 5.8 11 8 Foreign : 16.0 1.4 -3.8 2.5 10 9 Domestic use : World : 2.9 3.4 -7.1 2.9 12 7 U.S. : 3.2 1.2 -3.8 1.3 14 5 Foreign : 3.8 2.9 -5.6 3.6 13 6 Ending stocks : World : 13.1 2.2 -5.2 5.3 10 9 U.S. : 28.6 2.1 -4.2 4.5 5 14 Foreign : 16.0 1.8 -4.7 3.3 11 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.3 2.7 -10.1 9.9 10 8 U.S. : 3.6 0.5 -1.4 1.2 13 6 Foreign : 3.9 2.7 -10.4 10.2 9 9 Exports : World : 4.5 1.1 -3.1 1.7 10 9 U.S. : 14.1 0.8 -2.4 1.5 10 9 Foreign : 6.0 1.1 -3.2 1.8 8 11 Mill use : World : 2.4 2.0 -6.1 3.4 8 11 U.S. : 4.6 0.4 -0.9 0.9 12 6 Foreign : 2.5 1.8 -5.6 4.0 8 11 Ending stocks : World : 12.1 4.2 -11.0 12.4 9 9 U.S. : 24.8 1.0 -2.0 2.3 6 13 Foreign : 12.8 3.9 -11.5 11.7 12 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-98/99 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1999/00 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 19 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-367-33 Reliability of United States October Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 2.5 187 -541 618 12 7 Exports : 14.7 265 -575 533 8 10 Domestic use : 4.0 242 -558 530 11 8 Ending stocks : 20.4 347 -1187 629 9 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 3.4 23 -59 71 11 8 Exports : 17.9 43 -115 97 11 8 Domestic use : 8.8 42 -114 78 8 11 Ending stocks : 34.2 46 -142 110 7 11 : BARLEY : Production : 1.3 6 -12 24 7 9 Exports : 28.6 16 -37 38 9 8 Domestic use : 5.7 22 -47 70 10 8 Ending stocks : 11.2 18 -38 56 11 8 : OATS : Production : 1.0 4 -18 16 6 7 Exports : 73.3 2 -4 8 4 8 Domestic use : 3.5 14 -39 36 9 9 Ending stocks : 15.2 20 -46 47 14 5 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.0 904 -2696 1105 12 7 Exports : 10.0 672 -1950 1200 7 11 Domestic use : 2.9 645 -1250 1075 12 7 Ending stocks : 30.6 69 -179 198 8 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.2 450 -1473 791 13 6 Exports : 24.5 374 -1125 964 10 9 Domestic use : 2.6 320 -985 450 15 4 Ending stocks : 24.2 348 -791 750 7 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.9 924 -716 2461 11 6 Pork : 2.7 464 -1240 1592 9 8 Broilers : 2.2 399 -1337 596 13 4 Turkeys : 2.4 95 -444 233 11 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.7 96 -111 188 12 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.7 -6.5 4.6 8 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-98/99 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1999/00 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 19 for crops and 17 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1984 thru 1999 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1983/84 thru 1998/99 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-367-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- END OF FILE -----