WASDE-404 November 12, 2003 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are 25 million bushels lower than last month due to a 25-million- bushel increase in exports. Exports are up based on stronger- than-expected shipments to date. Projected imports and domestic use are unchanged. The projected price range is unchanged at $3.10 to $3.40 per bushel. Projected 2003/04 global wheat production and stocks are down from last month. Projected production is down by slightly more than 1 million tons due to decreases in the crops of Argentina, Slovakia, Romania, and Jordan. Projected global imports are up just under 1 million tons from last month due to larger imports by El Salvador, Slovakia, Romania, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates. Global ending stocks are down nearly 4 million tons due primarily to lower stocks in India, the United States, Argentina, the EU, and Eastern Europe. COARSE GRAINS: This month's outlook for 2003/04 U.S. feed grains is for larger production, increased use, and slightly smaller ending stocks. Forecast 2003 corn production is up 71 million bushels from last month. Projected corn feed and residual use is unchanged from last month. However, corn exports are up 75 million bushels because of decreased competition from Argentina. Projected corn ending stocks are down 4 million bushels from last month. The projected price range for corn is unchanged at $1.90 to $2.30 per bushel. Global 2003/04 coarse grain supply is little changed while projected use is up from last month. Stocks are projected down from last month. Production is projected to be up nearly 1 million tons due mostly to larger crops in the United States, the EU, and the Former Soviet Union. However, smaller crops are projected in Argentina and Eastern Europe. Global coarse grain use is projected to increase over 2 million tons this month, due primarily to increased use in China, the EU, Ukraine, and Japan. However, use is projected to drop in Eastern Europe. Global coarse grain imports are projected slightly lower than last month. Imports are projected to decline for Russia, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia, but increase for Japan and Taiwan. Projected global coarse grain stocks are down 2 million tons from last month. Although stocks are up in the EU and Taiwan, stocks are projected to decline in Argentina, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia. RICE: U.S. rice production for 2003/04 is forecast at 198.2 million cwt, up nearly 1 million cwt from last month, but 12.7 million cwt below 2002/03. Average yield for 2003/04 is forecast at a record 6,656 pounds per acre, 32 pounds per acre above last month. Long-grain production is forecast at 146.0 million cwt, 0.7 million cwt above last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 52.2 million cwt, nearly 0.3 million cwt above last month. Exports in 2003/04 are projected at 95 million cwt, 4 million cwt above last month, but nearly 30 million cwt below the 2002/03 record. All of the increase in exports is rough rice--projected at 42 million cwt--up 5 million cwt from last month but down about 1 million cwt from last year's record. Exports of long-grain rice are projected at 74 million cwt, 4 million cwt above last month, while combined medium- and short-grain rice are projected at 21 million cwt, unchanged from last month. Ending stocks for 2003/04 are projected at 21.9 million cwt, 3 million cwt below last month. The season- average price range for 2003/04 is raised 90 cents per cwt on each end to $7.00 to $7.50 per cwt compared to $4.22 per cwt in 2002/03. The price increase is due largely to higher-than- expected prices reported by NASS for the first 3 months of the marketing year and the expectation that U.S. prices will remain firm because of tight domestic supplies. Global 2003/04 rice production, exports, and ending stocks are raised from a month ago. The increase in global rice production is due primarily to larger crops projected for Australia, Brazil, the Philippines, Indonesia, and North Korea. Rice exports are raised for the United States, Australia, and Pakistan. Global rice ending stocks in 2003/04 are projected at 83.0 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from last month. The increase in stocks is due primarily to an increase in the Philippines. OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2003/04 are down slightly this month because of lower production and higher export prospects. U.S. oilseed production, at 76.5 million tons, is down 0.2 million tons as lower soybean production more than offsets larger peanut and cottonseed crops. Soybean production is forecast at 2.45 billion bushels, down 16.6 million bushels based on a lower average yield. Projected U.S. soybean stocks are reduced to 125 million bushels, the lowest level since 1976/77. Soybean exports are projected at 890 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from last month due to strong early-season shipments, especially to China. Soybean crush is reduced 25 million bushels this month. Soybean meal exports are lowered 0.5 million tons to 4.5 million short tons based in part on increased meal exports from South America and India. Soybean oil ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at 1.2 billion pounds, down slightly from last month, and the lowest since 1994/95. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2003/04 is projected at $6.65 to $7.55 per bushel compared with $6.05 to $6.95 last month. Soybean oil prices, at 24.5 to 27.5 cents per pound, are up 1 cent on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $210 to $240 per short ton, up 25 dollars on both ends of the range. Global oilseed production for 2003/04 is projected at 347.5 million tons, up 0.8 million tons from last month. Foreign production is forecast at 271.0 million tons, up 0.9 million tons as increases for soybeans, peanuts, and rapeseed more than offset reductions for sunflowerseed and cottonseed. Argentina soybean production is forecast at a record 38.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons based on increased area. Higher soybean prices and delayed corn and sunflowerseed planting due to excessively dry conditions are expected to cause some producers to shift to soybeans, which can be planted later in the season. India soybean production is increased to a record 6.2 million tons. Rapeseed and peanut production for India are also increased this month as crops recover from last year's drought. Other changes include reduced sunflowerseed production for Ukraine and for Argentina, and sharply lower cottonseed production for China. Global oilseed trade for 2003/04 is increased this month, mainly reflecting increased soybean imports for China, which are projected at a record 22 million tons. Argentina's soybean exports are increased 1.1 million tons to 12.7 million tons based on larger expected supplies. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2003/04 is decreased 403,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, mainly based on lower reported processor-owned stocks carried over from 2002/03. However, production is increased 48,000 tons based on processors' production projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency (FSA). Domestic food and beverage use is lowered 250,000 tons to reflect the allocated portion of the Overall Allotment Quantity and net imports. Exports are unchanged. The total stocks-to-use ratio is 19.8 percent, compared with 20.8 percent last month. For 2002/03, changes are due to availability of processors' final October-September data compiled by FSA for publication in Sweetener Market Data and revised 2001/02 ending stocks. Total supply is increased 116,000 tons, as higher beginning stocks are partially offset by lower-than-expected production. On the use side, reported total deliveries for domestic food and beverage use are 271,000 tons higher than expected last month. Miscellaneous uses of 91,000 tons include residual statistical discrepancies given final stocks data. Year-ending stocks are 1.305 million tons, down 451,000 tons from last month's estimate. The total stocks-to-use ratio is 12.8 percent, compared with 18.2 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Projected total meat production for both 2003 and 2004 is raised from last month. Beef production in 2003 is forecast to increase as high prices continue to cause producers to aggressively market cattle. Although cattle slaughter is increased, Choice beef supplies in the fourth quarter remain tight as average carcass weights fall well below a year earlier. Beef production for 2004 is slightly higher than last month as large second-half 2003 placements are slaughtered in 2004. Pork production is increased for 2003 as hog slaughter in the fourth-quarter will be stronger than previously expected. Projected pork production for 2004 is lowered from last month as feed costs are expected to be higher. Broiler production is raised for both 2003 and 2004. Demand for broiler meat is expected to be higher, supporting increased production forecasts. Tight supplies of Choice cattle continue to drive prices upward. The fourth-quarter Choice steer price is now forecast at $100- $102 per cwt, raising the 2003 annual average price to $85 per cwt. Steer prices in 2004 are raised to reflect continued tight cattle markets. Hog price forecasts are reduced in 2003 because of increased pork production, but are unchanged in 2004. Broiler price forecasts for 2004 are increased from last month as high beef prices are expected to boost demand for broiler meat next year. Turkey prices are forecast slightly higher for 2003 as high turkey stocks were worked down during the third quarter. Egg price forecasts are increased for 2003 and 2004 because of further reductions in forecast egg production. Dairy production and use forecasts for 2003/04 are reduced from last month as milk per cow increases more slowly than previously expected. In the face of lower milk production, fat- basis commercial use and stocks forecasts are lowered from last month. CCC fat-basis net removals are lowered and both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised. The all milk price is forecast to be $12.15 to $12.85 in 2003/04. COTTON: This month's 2003/04 U.S. projections include higher production, lower domestic mill use, and sharply higher exports. Forecast production is raised nearly 4 percent, including increases in all regions except the Far West. Domestic mill use is decreased 200,000 bales to 6.2 million, reflecting recent activity rates. Exports are raised 10 percent to 13.2 million bales, exceeding last season's record, due mainly to lower production and higher import demand by China. Accordingly, ending stocks are reduced nearly 8 percent to 4.25 million bales. The world projections for 2003/04 include a number of significant changes this month. Beginning stocks are reduced 1.5 percent, mainly reflecting increases in China's consumption for 2001/02 and 2002/03, which are based on evidence of a higher cotton fiber share than was estimated previously. World production for 2003/04 is reduced 2.5 percent, including a 3.5- million-bale reduction in China's crop resulting from heavy rain on the North China Plain during the late summer and fall. Other production changes include reductions for Pakistan and Australia, and increases for Brazil, the African Franc Zone, and Central Asia. World consumption for 2003/04 is reduced nearly 1 percent from last month as decreases in several countries reflect the effects of increasingly tight world supplies; these decreases are partially offset by a sharp increase for Bangladesh, where new sources of information indicate that recent consumption growth has been stronger than previously estimated. With lower production in the major cotton-consuming countries of China and Pakistan, world trade is raised about 6.5 percent from last month. World stocks are reduced to 31.7 million bales, the lowest since 1994/95. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: KEITH J. COLLINS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on December 11, 2003. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Dec. 11 in 2003 and the following dates in 2004: Jan. 12, Feb. 10, Mar. 10, Apr. 8, May 12, June 11, July 12, Aug. 12, Sep. 10, Oct. 12, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. Mark Your Calendar for Outlook Forum 2004 USDA will hold the 80th Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19-20, 2004, in Arlington, Virginia. Details will be announced in the fall. To receive detailed information, send your address to agforum@oce.usda.gov or write to Outlook Forum 2004, USDA/WAOB, Mail Stop 3812 South Building, Washington, D.C. 20250-3812. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. Mail: Government Printing Office, Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-0001. ELECTRONIC ACCESS This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically in either ascii text format or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. Click on the "Reports by E-Mail" button to sign up for e-mail delivery of the WASDE and other USDA releases in text format. An electronic calendar of USDA release dates is posted at: http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/rptcal/calindex.htm. WASDE-404-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 1,871.85 2,410.55 238.61 1,900.84 509.71 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,815.05 2,324.76 239.21 1,911.96 412.80 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 1,820.47 2,234.85 221.15 1,912.31 322.54 November : 1,821.47 2,234.27 221.83 1,917.04 317.23 Wheat : 2001/02 : 580.86 783.61 108.08 585.48 198.13 2002/03 (Est.) : 565.77 763.90 105.93 600.18 163.72 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 549.54 714.54 97.68 584.38 130.17 November : 548.25 711.96 98.56 585.66 126.31 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 892.42 1,080.51 103.51 904.31 176.20 2002/03 (Est.) : 869.02 1,045.21 105.98 901.81 143.40 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 881.65 1,025.60 98.34 915.61 109.99 November : 882.58 1,025.98 97.75 918.06 107.92 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 398.57 546.43 27.02 411.05 135.38 2002/03 (Est.) : 380.27 515.65 27.31 409.97 105.68 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 389.27 494.71 25.12 412.33 82.38 November : 390.64 496.32 25.52 413.32 83.00 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 321.84 405.18 84.33 253.43 67.42 2002/03 (Est.) : 295.63 368.18 72.98 250.10 45.11 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 347.56 397.87 82.55 258.81 56.50 November : 349.37 399.77 85.26 258.82 55.68 Wheat : 2001/02 : 53.26 80.04 26.23 32.66 21.15 2002/03 (Est.) : 44.06 67.32 23.25 30.70 13.37 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 63.59 79.01 28.58 33.20 17.23 November : 63.59 79.01 29.26 33.20 16.55 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 261.86 317.12 55.15 216.92 45.05 2002/03 (Est.) : 245.03 292.64 45.87 215.87 30.91 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 277.80 311.35 51.13 221.73 38.50 November : 279.58 313.22 53.03 221.74 38.45 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 6.71 8.02 2.95 3.85 1.22 2002/03 (Est.) : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.54 0.83 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 6.17 7.51 2.85 3.88 0.78 November : 6.20 7.54 2.97 3.88 0.69 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-404-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 1,550.01 2,005.37 154.28 1,647.41 442.29 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,519.43 1,956.58 166.23 1,661.86 367.69 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 1,472.91 1,836.98 138.60 1,653.50 266.04 November : 1,472.10 1,834.51 136.57 1,658.22 261.55 Wheat : 2001/02 : 527.60 703.58 81.85 552.82 176.98 2002/03 (Est.) : 521.71 696.58 82.68 569.48 150.35 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 485.96 635.54 69.11 551.17 112.94 November : 484.65 632.96 69.31 552.45 109.76 Coarse grains 5/ : 2001/02 : 630.56 763.38 48.36 687.39 131.14 2002/03 (Est.) : 623.99 752.57 60.11 685.94 112.49 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 603.85 714.25 47.22 693.88 71.49 November : 603.00 712.76 44.72 696.32 69.47 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 391.85 538.41 24.07 407.20 134.17 2002/03 (Est.) : 373.73 507.43 23.45 406.44 104.85 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 383.10 487.20 22.28 408.44 81.60 November : 384.44 488.78 22.55 409.44 82.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2001/02 : 98.46 141.14 29.05 94.64 46.95 2002/03 (Est.) : 87.99 134.94 30.61 98.22 36.77 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 94.50 131.80 30.33 98.45 33.73 November : 92.14 128.91 32.26 97.69 31.66 : United States 2001/02 : 20.30 26.32 11.00 7.70 7.45 2002/03 (Est.) : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.39 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 17.56 22.99 12.00 6.40 4.60 November : 18.22 23.65 13.20 6.20 4.25 : Foreign 3/ 2001/02 : 78.16 114.82 18.05 86.94 39.50 2002/03 (Est.) : 70.78 110.21 18.71 90.95 31.38 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 76.94 108.81 18.33 92.05 29.13 November : 73.93 105.26 19.06 91.49 27.41 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-404-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 324.87 360.64 64.33 264.65 36.93 2002/03 (Est.) : 329.01 365.94 73.34 269.29 41.37 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 346.75 387.80 77.89 288.88 39.78 November : 347.52 388.89 78.64 288.71 40.68 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 183.12 188.53 53.84 184.15 5.81 2002/03 (Est.) : 187.45 193.26 55.22 189.04 5.53 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 199.61 205.11 60.72 198.89 5.74 November : 200.32 205.85 60.92 199.52 5.75 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 92.40 100.99 33.60 92.64 7.97 2002/03 (Est.) : 94.32 102.29 35.77 96.07 6.31 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 100.93 107.62 36.92 100.05 6.91 November : 100.94 107.25 36.97 100.37 6.73 : : United States Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 89.83 98.30 29.97 50.62 6.87 2002/03 (Est.) : 83.78 91.20 29.45 47.52 5.59 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 76.71 83.13 24.57 45.28 4.48 November : 76.54 82.98 25.11 44.60 4.37 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 38.89 40.34 7.06 32.99 0.29 2002/03 (Est.) : 36.63 37.96 5.69 32.02 0.24 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 34.86 36.66 4.76 31.66 0.25 November : 34.33 36.09 4.30 31.56 0.23 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 9.64 12.99 1.55 10.14 1.30 2002/03 (Est.) : 9.21 12.13 1.25 10.00 0.88 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 8.77 11.44 0.62 10.07 0.74 November : 8.64 11.28 0.63 9.94 0.71 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 235.04 262.34 34.36 214.02 30.06 2002/03 (Est.) : 245.23 274.74 43.89 221.77 35.78 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 270.04 304.67 53.32 243.60 35.30 November : 270.98 305.91 53.53 244.11 36.31 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 144.23 148.19 46.77 151.16 5.52 2002/03 (Est.) : 150.82 155.31 49.53 157.02 5.29 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 164.75 168.44 55.96 167.23 5.50 November : 166.00 169.76 56.62 167.96 5.52 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 82.76 88.00 32.05 82.51 6.67 2002/03 (Est.) : 85.10 90.15 34.52 86.06 5.43 2003/04 (Proj.) : October : 92.16 96.18 36.29 89.98 6.17 November : 92.30 95.97 36.33 90.43 6.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-404-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 59.6 60.5 61.7 61.7 Harvested : 48.6 45.9 52.8 52.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 40.2 35.3 44.2 44.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 876 777 491 491 Production : 1,957 1,619 2,337 2,337 Imports : 108 77 75 75 Supply, total : 2,941 2,473 2,903 2,903 Food : 926 918 910 910 Seed : 84 84 85 85 Feed and residual : 190 126 225 225 Domestic, total : 1,200 1,128 1,220 1,220 Exports : 964 854 1,050 1,075 Use, total : 2,164 1,982 2,270 2,295 Ending stocks : 777 491 633 608 CCC inventory : 99 66 60 60 Free stocks : 678 425 573 548 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.78 3.56 3.10- 3.40 3.10- 3.40 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2002/03 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 612 354 332 241 79 1,619 Supply, total 3/ : 983 607 416 325 142 2,473 Domestic use : 487 204 257 103 77 1,128 Exports : 307 258 105 147 37 854 Use, total : 794 462 361 250 114 1,982 Ending stocks, total : 188 145 55 75 28 491 : 2003/04 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,063 500 379 298 97 2,337 Supply, total 3/ : 1,269 660 434 385 155 2,903 Domestic use : 486 252 281 116 85 1,220 Exports : 475 255 125 180 40 1,075 Use, total : 961 506 406 296 125 2,295 Ending stocks, total : November : 308 153 28 88 30 608 October : 318 158 43 83 30 633 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-404-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 95.4 98.7 98.5 98.5 Harvested : 83.6 82.8 86.5 86.5 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.13 2.96 3.21 3.23 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 52.7 45.0 30.9 30.9 Production : 261.7 244.9 277.6 279.3 Imports : 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 Supply, total : 316.8 292.3 311.0 312.9 Feed and residual : 158.5 151.2 153.2 153.2 Food, seed & industrial : 58.1 64.3 68.2 68.2 Domestic, total : 216.6 215.5 221.4 221.4 Exports : 55.1 45.9 51.1 53.0 Use, total : 271.7 261.4 272.5 274.4 Ending stocks, total : 45.0 30.9 38.5 38.4 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Free stocks : 44.9 30.8 38.4 38.4 Outstanding loans : 5.6 7.1 7.8 8.3 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 75.8 79.1 79.1 79.1 Harvested : 68.8 69.3 71.8 71.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.2 130.0 142.2 143.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,899 1,596 1,086 1,086 Production : 9,507 9,008 10,207 10,278 Imports : 10 14 10 10 Supply, total : 11,416 10,619 11,303 11,374 Feed and residual : 5,861 5,642 5,700 5,700 Food, seed & industrial : 2,054 2,298 2,450 2,450 Domestic, total : 7,915 7,940 8,150 8,150 Exports : 1,905 1,592 1,800 1,875 Use, total : 9,820 9,533 9,950 10,025 Ending stocks, total : 1,596 1,086 1,353 1,349 CCC inventory : 6 5 3 3 Free stocks : 1,590 1,081 1,350 1,346 Outstanding loans : 213 277 300 320 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.97 2.32 1.90- 2.30 1.90- 2.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-404-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.3 9.6 9.5 9.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.6 7.3 7.9 7.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 50.7 51.0 51.0 Beginning stocks : 42 61 43 43 Production : 515 370 401 400 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 556 431 443 443 Feed and residual : 208 158 165 165 Food, seed & industrial : 45 45 45 45 Total domestic : 253 203 210 210 Exports : 242 186 190 190 Use, total : 495 388 400 400 Ending stocks, total : 61 43 43 43 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 2.32 1.95- 2.35 1.95- 2.35 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.3 4.1 4.7 4.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.2 54.9 58.9 58.9 Beginning stocks : 106 93 69 69 Production : 249 227 276 276 Imports : 24 18 30 30 Supply, total : 380 338 375 375 Feed and residual : 88 65 85 85 Food, seed & industrial : 172 173 173 173 Total domestic : 260 238 258 258 Exports : 26 30 25 25 Use, total : 287 269 283 283 Ending stocks, total : 93 69 92 92 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.22 2.72 2.45- 2.75 2.65- 2.95 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.4 5.0 4.6 4.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.4 56.7 65.0 65.0 Beginning stocks : 73 63 50 50 Production : 117 119 145 145 Imports : 96 95 95 100 Supply, total : 286 277 289 294 Feed and residual : 148 152 145 145 Food, seed & industrial : 72 72 73 73 Total domestic : 220 224 218 218 Exports : 3 3 2 2 Use, total : 223 227 220 220 Ending stocks, total : 63 50 69 74 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.59 1.81 1.25- 1.55 1.25- 1.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-404-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.33 3.24 3.01 3.01 Harvested : 3.31 3.21 2.98 2.98 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,496 6,578 6,624 6,656 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 28.5 39.0 26.8 26.8 Production : 215.3 211.0 197.3 198.2 Imports : 13.2 14.8 16.0 16.0 Supply, total : 256.9 264.8 240.0 241.0 Domestic & residual 3/ : 123.3 113.4 124.1 124.0 Exports, total 4/ : 94.7 124.6 91.0 95.0 Rough : 32.2 43.0 37.0 42.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 62.5 81.5 54.0 53.0 Use, total : 218.0 238.0 215.1 219.0 Ending stocks : 39.0 26.8 24.9 22.0 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.8 68.3 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.25 4.22 6.10- 6.60 7.00- 7.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.70 2.51 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,213 6,260 Beginning stocks : 11.6 26.8 15.7 15.7 Production : 167.6 157.2 145.3 146.0 Supply, total 7/ : 188.3 194.1 171.5 172.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.7 79.2 87.8 87.8 Exports 8/ : 73.8 99.2 70.0 74.0 Use, total : 161.6 178.4 157.8 161.8 Ending stocks : 26.8 15.7 13.6 10.4 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.62 0.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,733 7,729 Beginning stocks : 15.6 10.7 9.3 9.3 Production : 47.7 53.7 52.0 52.2 Supply, total 7/ : 67.1 68.9 66.7 67.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 35.5 34.3 36.2 36.2 Exports 8/ : 20.9 25.3 21.0 21.0 Use, total : 56.4 59.6 57.2 57.2 Ending stocks : 10.7 9.3 9.5 9.8 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-404-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.1 73.9 73.6 73.6 Harvested : 73.0 72.4 72.5 72.5 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 39.6 38.0 34.0 33.8 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 248 208 169 169 Production : 2,891 2,749 2,468 2,452 Imports : 2 5 7 8 Supply, total : 3,141 2,962 2,645 2,629 Crushings : 1,700 1,615 1,510 1,485 Exports : 1,064 1,045 870 890 Seed : 90 90 91 91 Residual : 79 42 45 39 Use, total : 2,933 2,793 2,515 2,505 Ending stocks : 208 169 130 125 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.38 5.53 6.05- 6.95 6.65 - 7.55 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,767 2,358 1,564 1,485 Production : 18,898 18,435 17,020 16,735 Imports : 46 47 85 85 Supply, total : 21,711 20,840 18,668 18,305 Domestic : 16,833 17,055 16,600 16,300 Exports : 2,519 2,300 850 850 Use, total : 19,353 19,355 17,450 17,150 Ending stocks : 2,358 1,485 1,218 1,155 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 16.46 22.04 23.50- 24.50- : 26.50 27.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 383 240 250 220 Production : 40,292 38,205 35,935 35,340 Imports : 143 160 340 340 Supply, total : 40,819 38,605 36,525 35,900 Domestic : 33,070 32,334 31,300 31,200 Exports : 7,508 6,050 5,000 4,500 Use, total : 40,579 38,384 36,300 35,700 Ending stocks : 240 220 225 200 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.73 181.57 185.00- 210.00- : 215.00 240.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-404-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :===================== : : Estimate : October November ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,426 1,756 1,305 Production 2/3/ : 7,907 8,378 8,847 8,895 Beet sugar : 3,915 4,415 4,667 4,720 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,992 3,963 4,180 4,175 Imports 2/ : 1,535 1,713 1,584 1,584 TRQ 5/ : 1,158 1,200 1,224 1,224 Other program 6/ : 296 488 325 325 Other 7/ : 81 25 35 35 Total supply : 11,622 11,517 12,187 11,784 : Exports 2/8/ : 137 142 160 160 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,085 9,979 9,925 9,675 Domestic food use : 9,897 9,771 9,700 9,450 Other 9/ : 188 208 225 225 Miscellaneous 10/ : -26 91 0 0 Use, total : 10,196 10,212 10,085 9,835 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,426 1,305 2,102 1,949 : Stocks to use ratio : 14.0 12.8 20.8 19.8 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Production for 2003/04 is based on processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. 4/ Production by state for 2002/03 (projected 2003/04): FL 2,127 (2,125); HI 276 (290); LA 1,369 (1,578); TX 191 (182); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2003/04, includes shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar- containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-404-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.77 13.96 13.63 13.63 Harvested : 13.83 12.43 12.11 12.11 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 705 665 696 722 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 6.00 7.45 5.38 5.38 Production : 20.30 17.21 17.56 18.22 Imports : 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.05 Supply, total : 26.32 24.72 22.99 23.65 Domestic use : 7.70 7.27 6.40 6.20 Exports : 11.00 11.90 12.00 13.20 Use, total : 18.70 19.17 18.40 19.40 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.18 0.17 -0.01 0.00 Ending stocks : 7.45 5.38 4.60 4.25 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 29.8 44.5 52.4 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August-September 2003. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2003/04 is 22.0 percent. WASDE-404-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 202.75 580.86 108.25 107.83 585.48 108.08 198.13 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.17 32.66 26.23 21.15 Total foreign : 178.91 527.60 105.32 102.66 552.82 81.85 176.98 Major exporters 4/ : 24.53 151.91 10.25 52.98 108.98 54.25 23.46 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.89 10.08 1.14 Australia : 4.54 24.85 0.08 2.70 5.43 16.41 7.63 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 3.69 7.57 16.27 6.73 EU-15 : 9.75 90.99 9.82 46.50 91.10 11.49 7.97 Major importers 5/ : 108.61 141.32 48.95 12.45 203.20 3.65 92.03 Brazil : 0.65 3.25 7.01 0.40 10.00 0.01 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.48 0.31 29.37 0.24 5.66 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.24 0.40 19.80 0.50 2.59 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.83 1.38 8.67 0.34 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.90 1.69 10.94 30.54 4.15 6.73 India : 21.50 69.68 0.03 0.50 65.12 3.09 23.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.33 3.56 20.46 69.31 13.81 17.14 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.63 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.48 Kazakhstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.09 3.00 13.44 5.49 2.96 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 198.13 565.77 105.79 112.60 600.18 105.93 163.72 United States : 21.15 44.06 2.11 3.44 30.70 23.25 13.37 Total foreign : 176.98 521.71 103.68 109.16 569.48 82.68 150.35 Major exporters 4/ : 23.46 141.75 12.86 58.44 115.18 41.05 21.85 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.18 6.50 1.77 Australia : 7.63 9.39 0.50 3.38 6.10 9.15 2.27 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.35 3.70 7.80 9.40 6.07 EU-15 : 7.97 103.87 12.00 51.28 96.10 16.00 11.74 Major importers 5/ : 92.03 138.35 45.98 10.20 198.45 4.27 73.64 Brazil : 0.90 2.94 6.70 0.45 9.90 0.01 0.63 China : 76.59 90.29 0.43 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.39 N. Africa 6/ : 5.66 11.17 18.60 0.30 29.43 0.21 5.80 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.25 0.40 18.60 0.90 1.57 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 0.00 9.15 1.70 8.98 0.38 1.40 Selected other : East. Europe : 6.73 30.46 2.02 9.99 29.58 4.66 4.97 India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.64 4.50 15.70 FSU-12 8/ : 17.14 97.39 3.64 24.06 74.20 24.86 19.12 Russia : 6.48 50.55 0.50 16.00 39.30 12.62 5.61 Kazakhstan : 5.20 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 5.51 6.66 Ukraine : 2.96 20.55 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.25 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-404-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 165.00 549.54 93.58 101.06 584.38 97.68 130.17 November : 163.72 548.25 94.44 101.86 585.66 98.56 126.31 United States : October : 13.37 63.59 2.04 6.12 33.20 28.58 17.23 November : 13.37 63.59 2.04 6.12 33.20 29.26 16.55 Total foreign : October : 151.63 485.96 91.54 94.94 551.17 69.11 112.94 November : 150.35 484.65 92.40 95.74 552.45 69.31 109.76 Major exporters 4/ : October : 22.50 151.50 4.17 54.58 111.68 49.50 16.99 November : 21.85 151.00 4.17 55.08 112.18 48.50 16.34 Argentina Oct : 2.27 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 8.50 2.00 Nov : 1.77 13.00 0.01 0.08 5.28 8.00 1.50 Australia Oct : 2.27 24.00 0.01 3.50 6.20 17.50 2.58 Nov : 2.27 24.00 0.01 3.50 6.20 17.50 2.58 Canada Oct : 6.07 22.00 0.15 3.50 7.70 14.50 6.02 Nov : 6.07 22.00 0.15 3.50 7.70 14.50 6.02 EU-15 Oct : 11.90 92.00 4.00 47.50 92.50 9.00 6.40 Nov : 11.74 92.00 4.00 48.00 93.00 8.50 6.24 Major importers 5/ : October : 73.50 140.65 39.25 9.45 196.46 3.00 53.93 November : 73.64 140.65 39.45 9.45 196.81 3.00 53.93 Brazil Oct : 0.58 4.70 5.60 0.35 9.95 0.01 0.92 Nov : 0.63 4.70 5.60 0.35 10.00 0.01 0.92 China Oct : 60.39 87.00 0.50 6.00 104.50 1.30 42.09 Nov : 60.39 87.00 0.50 6.00 104.50 1.30 42.09 N. Africa 6/ Oct : 5.40 15.98 12.90 0.30 29.18 0.21 4.89 Nov : 5.80 15.98 13.10 0.30 29.48 0.21 5.19 Pakistan Oct : 1.57 18.20 0.50 0.40 18.75 0.20 1.32 Nov : 1.57 18.20 0.50 0.40 18.75 0.20 1.32 SE Asia 7/ Oct : 1.40 0.00 9.05 1.55 8.95 0.33 1.17 Nov : 1.40 0.00 9.05 1.55 8.95 0.33 1.17 Selected other : East. Europe Oct : 4.97 21.75 4.38 8.37 27.33 1.23 2.54 Nov : 4.97 20.92 5.06 8.37 27.33 1.23 2.39 India Oct : 17.96 67.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 2.00 14.01 Nov : 15.70 67.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 3.00 10.75 FSU-12 8/ Oct : 18.98 61.88 6.94 17.33 65.63 10.21 11.96 Nov : 19.12 61.88 6.94 17.33 65.63 10.21 12.10 Russia Oct : 5.61 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 1.61 Nov : 5.61 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 1.61 Kazakhstan Oct : 6.66 12.00 0.02 2.00 6.10 6.50 6.07 Nov : 6.66 12.00 0.02 2.00 6.10 6.50 6.07 Ukraine Oct : 3.16 4.00 3.00 0.73 9.73 0.10 0.34 Nov : 3.25 4.00 3.00 0.73 9.73 0.10 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-404-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 188.08 892.42 101.39 596.91 904.31 103.51 176.20 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 158.57 216.92 55.15 45.05 Total foreign : 135.38 630.56 98.83 438.34 687.39 48.36 131.14 Major exporters 4/ : 7.41 64.34 5.32 35.87 48.58 19.91 8.59 Argentina : 1.27 18.73 0.00 5.47 7.63 11.32 1.05 Australia : 1.31 12.56 0.05 5.50 6.77 4.94 2.21 Canada : 4.33 22.60 4.11 20.84 25.15 2.52 3.37 Major importers 5/ : 29.26 159.56 68.34 161.75 218.76 5.53 32.87 EU-15 : 17.37 106.76 4.24 77.94 103.28 5.04 20.05 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.95 15.52 20.15 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.58 27.17 9.06 19.23 35.27 0.05 4.49 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.22 3.82 13.55 18.96 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.45 8.85 6.74 9.35 0.00 1.17 Selected other : China : 81.66 122.27 1.96 94.21 133.08 8.63 64.19 East. Europe : 2.65 51.02 1.53 36.05 46.15 3.89 5.16 FSU-12 6/ : 5.93 62.35 1.00 33.71 51.39 6.63 11.25 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.74 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.74 Ukraine : 1.93 17.03 0.10 9.04 12.97 3.49 2.61 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 176.20 869.02 100.53 588.20 901.81 105.98 143.40 United States : 45.05 245.03 2.56 151.30 215.87 45.87 30.91 Total foreign : 131.14 623.99 97.96 436.90 685.94 60.11 112.49 Major exporters 4/ : 8.59 54.37 4.65 30.39 43.11 17.83 6.67 Argentina : 1.05 19.44 0.03 4.39 6.52 12.75 1.24 Australia : 2.21 5.43 0.01 3.44 4.75 2.33 0.58 Canada : 3.37 19.87 4.20 18.24 22.58 1.73 3.13 Major importers 5/ : 32.87 156.66 68.11 158.89 216.80 7.08 33.75 EU-15 : 20.05 106.37 4.16 76.28 102.09 6.81 21.68 Japan : 2.34 0.22 19.79 15.26 20.09 0.00 2.26 Mexico : 4.49 25.02 9.05 18.48 34.52 0.05 3.98 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.97 4.11 13.72 19.03 0.22 0.88 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.89 6.74 9.37 0.00 1.06 Selected other : China : 64.19 129.15 1.81 95.03 136.27 15.34 43.54 East. Europe : 5.16 50.29 1.49 38.06 48.02 3.44 5.47 FSU-12 6/ : 11.25 60.82 0.76 35.29 53.01 8.16 11.66 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.45 29.85 3.45 7.19 Ukraine : 2.61 17.10 0.22 9.28 13.27 4.04 2.61 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-404-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 143.95 881.65 99.56 596.99 915.61 98.34 109.99 November : 143.40 882.58 99.39 599.65 918.06 97.75 107.92 United States : October : 30.91 277.80 2.65 153.29 221.73 51.13 38.50 November : 30.91 279.58 2.73 153.30 221.74 53.03 38.45 Total foreign : October : 113.04 603.85 96.91 443.70 693.88 47.22 71.49 November : 112.49 603.00 96.66 446.36 696.32 44.72 69.47 Major exporters 4/ : October : 6.72 66.32 2.50 33.01 46.06 22.12 7.37 November : 6.67 64.22 2.50 33.01 46.06 20.12 7.21 Argentina Oct : 1.29 20.00 0.01 5.08 7.24 12.72 1.34 Nov : 1.24 17.90 0.01 5.08 7.24 10.72 1.19 Australia Oct : 0.58 11.06 0.00 5.01 6.31 4.45 0.88 Nov : 0.58 11.06 0.00 5.01 6.31 4.45 0.88 Canada Oct : 3.13 25.88 2.06 18.59 23.24 3.93 3.91 Nov : 3.13 25.88 2.06 18.59 23.24 3.93 3.91 Major importers 5/ : October : 33.33 146.54 68.98 160.10 218.59 5.17 25.10 November : 33.75 147.04 69.28 161.20 219.89 4.67 25.52 EU-15 Oct : 21.24 92.75 4.76 75.28 101.50 5.02 12.23 Nov : 21.68 92.95 5.06 75.78 102.20 4.52 12.97 Japan Oct : 2.26 0.25 19.19 14.66 19.49 0.00 2.22 Nov : 2.26 0.25 19.69 15.16 19.99 0.00 2.22 Mexico Oct : 3.98 25.45 10.13 20.06 36.10 0.05 3.41 Nov : 3.98 25.45 10.13 20.06 36.10 0.05 3.41 Southeast Asia Oct : 0.88 15.65 4.16 14.20 19.58 0.10 1.01 Nov : 0.88 15.95 3.86 14.20 19.58 0.10 1.01 South Korea Oct : 1.28 0.38 9.66 7.36 10.03 0.00 1.28 Nov : 1.06 0.38 9.66 7.36 10.03 0.00 1.06 Selected other : China Oct : 44.40 121.30 2.31 95.06 137.71 8.53 21.77 Nov : 43.54 121.30 2.11 95.96 138.60 8.53 19.81 East. Europe Oct : 5.44 42.58 2.06 35.69 45.55 1.86 2.66 Nov : 5.47 41.77 2.06 35.09 44.95 1.66 2.69 FSU-12 6/ Oct : 11.54 52.68 1.35 38.27 56.08 4.87 4.62 Nov : 11.66 53.98 1.05 39.07 56.88 5.07 4.74 Russia Oct : 7.08 28.20 0.80 20.35 31.95 2.40 1.73 Nov : 7.19 28.50 0.50 20.35 31.95 2.40 1.84 Ukraine Oct : 2.59 15.30 0.32 10.90 14.87 1.84 1.51 Nov : 2.61 16.30 0.32 11.70 15.67 2.04 1.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-404-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 152.12 599.35 74.42 433.02 621.72 75.99 129.75 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.26 148.87 201.05 48.38 40.55 Total foreign : 103.88 357.86 74.17 284.15 420.67 27.61 89.20 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 24.75 0.93 6.50 12.60 11.87 2.33 Argentina : 0.64 14.70 0.00 2.65 4.15 10.80 0.39 South Africa : 0.49 10.05 0.92 3.85 8.45 1.07 1.94 Major importers 5/ : 12.20 81.76 45.39 87.25 125.90 0.55 12.89 EU-15 : 3.74 40.01 2.91 32.80 42.40 0.06 4.19 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.68 20.40 4.08 8.40 23.60 0.05 3.51 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.07 3.82 13.42 18.82 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.62 6.58 8.74 0.00 1.17 Selected other : Brazil : 1.65 35.50 0.43 30.50 34.50 2.05 1.02 Canada : 0.88 8.39 3.95 9.67 11.97 0.20 1.06 China : 81.19 114.09 0.04 92.00 123.30 8.61 63.40 East. Europe : 1.50 26.75 1.07 20.09 23.57 3.01 2.74 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.81 0.65 5.70 7.04 0.37 1.46 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.53 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.08 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 129.75 602.44 75.71 432.82 631.89 79.55 100.31 United States : 40.55 228.80 0.37 143.32 201.69 40.45 27.58 Total foreign : 89.20 373.64 75.34 289.50 430.19 39.10 72.73 Major exporters 4/ : 2.33 24.70 0.27 5.90 12.00 13.00 2.30 Argentina : 0.39 15.50 0.02 1.80 3.30 12.00 0.60 South Africa : 1.94 9.20 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.69 Major importers 5/ : 12.89 79.56 47.70 87.99 126.86 0.47 12.83 EU-15 : 4.19 40.09 3.00 32.60 42.20 0.20 4.88 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.50 12.00 16.50 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 3.51 18.80 5.50 9.50 24.70 0.05 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.67 4.11 13.44 18.74 0.22 0.88 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.70 8.97 0.00 1.06 Selected other : Brazil : 1.02 45.00 0.30 32.50 36.50 6.00 3.82 Canada : 1.06 8.98 3.90 10.18 12.48 0.35 1.10 China : 63.40 121.30 0.01 93.00 126.50 15.24 42.97 East. Europe : 2.74 27.29 0.81 21.30 24.73 2.51 3.61 FSU-12 6/ : 1.46 8.45 0.23 6.34 7.72 0.90 1.52 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-404-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 99.99 608.97 75.54 431.57 631.80 74.14 77.16 November : 100.31 609.79 75.64 433.60 633.66 74.05 76.45 United States : October : 27.58 259.27 0.25 144.79 207.02 45.72 34.37 November : 27.58 261.07 0.25 144.79 207.02 47.63 34.26 Total foreign : October : 72.41 349.70 75.29 286.78 424.78 28.42 42.80 November : 72.73 348.72 75.39 288.81 426.64 26.42 42.19 Major exporters 4/ : October : 2.30 24.90 0.26 6.60 12.70 13.00 1.76 November : 2.30 22.90 0.26 6.60 12.70 11.00 1.76 Argentina Oct : 0.60 16.00 0.01 2.50 4.00 12.00 0.61 Nov : 0.60 14.00 0.01 2.50 4.00 10.00 0.61 South Africa Oct : 1.69 8.90 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.14 Nov : 1.69 8.90 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.14 Major importers 5/ : October : 11.87 70.89 49.66 83.18 122.17 0.25 10.00 November : 12.83 71.19 50.16 83.88 122.87 0.25 11.06 EU-15 Oct : 3.91 30.50 4.00 26.50 36.10 0.10 2.21 Nov : 4.88 30.50 4.00 26.50 36.10 0.10 3.18 Japan Oct : 1.39 0.00 16.00 11.50 16.00 0.00 1.40 Nov : 1.39 0.00 16.50 12.00 16.50 0.00 1.40 Mexico Oct : 3.06 19.00 6.50 10.50 25.70 0.05 2.81 Nov : 3.06 19.00 6.50 10.50 25.70 0.05 2.81 Southeast Asia Oct : 0.88 15.37 4.16 13.93 19.30 0.10 1.01 Nov : 0.88 15.67 3.86 13.93 19.30 0.10 1.01 South Korea Oct : 1.28 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.28 Nov : 1.06 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.06 Selected other : Brazil Oct : 3.82 37.50 0.30 33.00 37.00 3.00 1.62 Nov : 3.82 37.50 0.30 33.00 37.00 3.00 1.62 Canada Oct : 1.10 9.20 2.00 8.60 11.10 0.30 0.90 Nov : 1.10 9.20 2.00 8.60 11.10 0.30 0.90 China Oct : 43.71 114.00 0.10 93.00 128.10 8.50 21.21 Nov : 42.97 114.00 0.10 94.00 129.10 8.50 19.47 East. Europe Oct : 3.57 22.71 0.99 20.99 24.43 1.38 1.47 Nov : 3.61 21.86 0.99 20.37 23.80 1.18 1.48 FSU-12 6/ Oct : 1.53 9.28 0.70 7.43 8.91 1.33 1.28 Nov : 1.52 10.58 0.40 8.23 9.71 1.53 1.27 Russia Oct : 0.13 1.20 0.60 1.40 1.80 0.00 0.13 Nov : 0.12 1.50 0.30 1.40 1.80 0.00 0.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-404-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 3/ : 147.87 398.57 25.62 411.05 27.02 135.38 United States : 0.89 6.71 0.42 3.85 2.95 1.22 Total foreign : 146.98 391.85 25.20 407.20 24.07 134.17 Major exporters 4/ : 28.34 135.50 0.06 117.15 18.42 28.32 India : 25.05 93.08 0.00 87.35 6.30 24.48 Pakistan : 0.48 3.88 0.00 2.64 1.63 0.10 Thailand : 1.90 17.50 0.02 9.77 7.25 2.40 Vietnam : 0.91 21.04 0.04 17.40 3.25 1.34 Major importers 5/ : 12.85 54.36 12.23 66.07 0.42 12.96 Brazil : 1.17 7.12 0.63 8.30 0.03 0.59 EU-15 : 0.89 1.62 0.92 2.22 0.34 0.88 Indonesia : 4.61 33.09 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.84 Nigeria : 1.02 2.10 1.91 3.55 0.00 1.48 Philippines : 2.80 8.45 1.20 9.04 0.00 3.41 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 2.13 1.40 3.20 5.18 0.06 1.50 Selected other : Burma : 1.38 10.44 0.00 9.90 1.00 0.92 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.07 0.09 0.38 0.44 0.00 0.10 China : 94.10 124.31 0.31 134.58 1.96 82.17 Egypt : 0.89 3.58 0.03 3.15 0.47 0.86 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.66 8.92 0.05 1.59 Mexico : 0.16 0.19 0.54 0.68 0.00 0.20 South Korea : 1.74 5.52 0.12 5.56 0.13 1.68 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 3/ : 135.38 380.27 25.97 409.97 27.31 105.68 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.54 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 134.17 373.73 25.50 406.44 23.45 104.85 Major exporters 4/ : 28.32 118.38 0.04 114.05 17.15 15.55 India : 24.48 75.70 0.00 83.93 4.30 11.95 Pakistan : 0.10 4.23 0.00 2.65 1.60 0.08 Thailand : 2.40 17.12 0.00 9.92 7.25 2.35 Vietnam : 1.34 21.33 0.04 17.55 4.00 1.16 Major importers 5/ : 12.96 55.14 12.07 67.16 0.58 12.42 Brazil : 0.59 7.25 1.20 8.10 0.03 0.91 EU-15 : 0.88 1.71 0.89 2.23 0.49 0.76 Indonesia : 4.84 33.20 3.00 36.76 0.00 4.27 Nigeria : 1.48 2.20 1.82 3.85 0.00 1.65 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 1.50 1.88 2.64 5.18 0.06 0.78 Selected other : Burma : 0.92 10.44 0.00 10.10 0.45 0.81 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 China : 82.17 122.18 0.25 134.80 2.50 67.30 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.65 0.69 Japan : 1.59 8.09 0.70 8.79 0.20 1.39 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.48 0.70 0.00 0.11 South Korea : 1.68 4.93 0.13 5.10 0.57 1.07 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-404-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 105.44 389.27 24.78 412.33 25.12 82.38 November : 105.68 390.64 24.68 413.32 25.52 83.00 United States : October : 0.83 6.17 0.51 3.88 2.85 0.78 November : 0.83 6.20 0.51 3.88 2.97 0.69 Total foreign : October : 104.61 383.10 24.27 408.44 22.28 81.60 November : 104.85 384.44 24.17 409.44 22.55 82.32 Major exporters 4/ : October : 15.41 132.30 0.04 115.90 16.30 15.55 November : 15.55 132.30 0.04 115.85 16.40 15.64 India Oct : 12.00 89.00 0.00 85.25 2.75 13.00 Nov : 11.95 89.00 0.00 85.25 2.75 12.95 Pakistan Oct : 0.15 4.50 0.00 2.75 1.55 0.35 Nov : 0.08 4.50 0.00 2.70 1.65 0.23 Thailand Oct : 2.10 17.80 0.00 10.20 8.00 1.70 Nov : 2.35 17.80 0.00 10.20 8.00 1.95 Vietnam Oct : 1.16 21.00 0.04 17.70 4.00 0.50 Nov : 1.16 21.00 0.04 17.70 4.00 0.50 Major importers 5/ : October : 12.12 55.08 11.53 67.83 0.51 10.38 November : 12.42 55.86 11.33 68.05 0.56 10.99 Brazil Oct : 0.89 7.30 0.65 8.10 0.00 0.74 Nov : 0.91 7.50 0.60 8.30 0.05 0.66 EU-15 Oct : 0.76 1.63 0.90 2.23 0.45 0.61 Nov : 0.76 1.63 0.90 2.23 0.45 0.61 Indonesia Oct : 4.50 33.30 3.50 36.95 0.00 4.35 Nov : 4.27 33.54 3.00 36.97 0.00 3.84 Nigeria Oct : 1.65 2.30 1.25 4.00 0.00 1.20 Nov : 1.65 2.30 1.25 4.00 0.00 1.20 Philippines Oct : 3.45 8.50 0.80 9.70 0.00 3.05 Nov : 3.81 8.84 0.80 9.70 0.00 3.75 Sel. Mideast 6/Oct : 0.63 1.60 3.40 5.33 0.06 0.25 Nov : 0.78 1.60 3.70 5.33 0.06 0.70 Selected other : Burma Oct : 0.76 10.44 0.00 10.20 0.50 0.50 Nov : 0.81 10.44 0.00 10.20 0.50 0.55 C. Am & Car. 7/Oct : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 Nov : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 China Oct : 67.60 118.00 0.30 135.00 2.50 48.40 Nov : 67.30 118.00 0.30 135.00 2.50 48.10 Egypt Oct : 0.64 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.54 Nov : 0.69 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.59 Japan Oct : 1.39 7.10 0.70 8.66 0.20 0.34 Nov : 1.39 7.10 0.70 8.66 0.20 0.34 Mexico Oct : 0.08 0.11 0.63 0.73 0.00 0.09 Nov : 0.11 0.11 0.63 0.73 0.00 0.12 South Korea Oct : 1.07 4.50 0.16 5.02 0.10 0.62 Nov : 1.07 4.50 0.16 5.02 0.10 0.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-404-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World : 42.68 98.46 29.60 94.64 29.05 0.10 46.95 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.70 11.00 0.18 7.45 Total foreign : 36.68 78.16 29.58 86.94 18.05 -0.08 39.50 Major exporters 4/ : 8.78 27.63 1.40 12.65 14.14 -0.09 11.12 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.02 4.15 0.27 0.91 3.78 -0.14 2.90 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.10 -0.16 2.21 Major importers : 26.09 47.45 23.33 67.81 2.64 0.01 26.40 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.80 0.67 -0.15 2.42 India : 3.77 12.30 1.95 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.69 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 2.06 2.20 0.09 0.03 0.72 China : 14.35 24.40 0.45 26.25 0.34 0.00 12.61 Europe : 1.58 2.62 4.36 5.36 1.30 0.06 1.84 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.77 0.21 9.59 8.98 0.05 0.08 2.46 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 Thailand : 0.38 0.10 2.06 1.90 0.00 0.03 0.61 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World : 46.95 87.99 30.91 98.22 30.61 0.25 36.76 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.38 Total foreign : 39.50 70.78 30.84 90.95 18.71 0.08 31.38 Major exporters 4/ : 11.12 23.96 1.44 13.96 14.07 0.01 8.48 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.20 0.23 0.03 2.46 Central Asia 5/ : 1.94 6.74 3/ 1.87 5.24 0.00 1.58 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 3.98 3/ 0.21 3.76 0.05 1.44 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.90 2.72 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.89 Australia : 2.21 1.70 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.23 Major importers : 26.40 43.77 24.20 70.29 3.21 0.06 20.81 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.45 0.49 -0.10 3.03 India : 4.69 10.60 1.40 13.30 0.05 0.00 3.34 Mexico : 0.72 0.19 2.30 2.10 0.05 0.03 1.04 China : 12.61 22.60 3.13 29.50 0.75 0.00 8.08 Europe : 1.84 2.19 4.00 5.02 1.52 0.06 1.43 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.13 2.26 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.24 Selected Asia 8/ : 2.46 0.16 8.89 8.98 0.05 0.08 2.42 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.38 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.94 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-404-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World : October : 37.31 94.50 30.74 98.45 30.33 0.02 33.73 November : 36.76 92.14 32.74 97.69 32.26 0.03 31.66 United States : October : 5.38 17.56 0.05 6.40 12.00 -0.01 4.60 November : 5.38 18.22 0.05 6.20 13.20 0.00 4.25 Total foreign : October : 31.92 76.94 30.68 92.05 18.33 0.03 29.13 November : 31.38 73.93 32.69 91.49 19.06 0.03 27.41 Major exporters 4/ : October : 8.47 24.54 1.86 14.19 13.36 -0.04 7.37 November : 8.48 24.40 2.00 14.16 13.62 -0.04 7.14 Pakistan Oct : 2.46 8.35 1.05 9.40 0.10 0.03 2.33 Nov : 2.46 7.90 1.30 9.40 0.05 0.03 2.18 Central Asia 5/Oct : 1.58 6.42 0.01 1.88 4.80 0.00 1.32 Nov : 1.58 6.55 0.01 1.88 4.93 0.00 1.32 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Oct : 1.44 4.42 3/ 0.20 4.36 0.00 1.29 Nov : 1.44 4.57 3/ 0.20 4.52 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis 7/ Oct : 1.89 2.82 0.35 1.14 2.46 -0.08 1.54 Nov : 1.89 2.90 0.25 1.12 2.54 -0.08 1.46 Australia Oct : 1.23 1.30 3/ 0.12 1.70 -0.10 0.82 Nov : 1.23 1.20 3/ 0.10 1.70 -0.10 0.73 Major importers Oct : 21.41 49.20 24.12 71.55 3.26 0.06 19.86 Nov : 20.81 46.30 25.54 70.55 3.71 0.06 18.33 Brazil Oct : 3.03 4.40 0.30 3.65 1.30 -0.10 2.88 Nov : 3.03 5.00 0.20 3.55 1.65 -0.10 3.13 India Oct : 3.34 12.50 1.25 13.50 0.05 0.00 3.54 Nov : 3.34 12.50 1.15 13.40 0.10 0.00 3.49 Mexico Oct : 0.94 0.30 1.75 2.20 0.10 0.03 0.67 Nov : 1.04 0.30 1.40 2.00 0.18 0.03 0.54 China Oct : 8.93 25.50 4.30 30.40 0.15 0.00 8.18 Nov : 8.08 22.00 7.00 30.20 0.10 0.00 6.78 Europe Oct : 1.44 2.13 3.92 4.82 1.40 0.06 1.21 Nov : 1.43 2.13 3.89 4.80 1.42 0.06 1.17 Russia Oct : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Nov : 0.22 3/ 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Oct : 1.08 4.20 2.35 6.30 0.20 0.00 1.13 Nov : 1.24 4.20 1.85 6.10 0.20 0.00 0.99 Sel. Asia 8/ Oct : 2.42 0.17 8.60 9.02 0.06 0.08 2.03 Nov : 2.42 0.17 8.45 8.90 0.06 0.08 2.00 Indonesia Oct : 0.38 0.04 2.25 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.34 Nov : 0.38 0.04 2.20 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.34 Thailand Oct : 0.60 0.07 1.95 2.10 0.01 0.03 0.48 Nov : 0.60 0.07 1.90 2.05 0.01 0.03 0.48 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-404-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 30.71 184.87 54.24 158.12 184.04 53.64 32.14 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.87 28.95 5.66 Total foreign : 23.96 106.20 54.18 111.86 133.17 24.69 26.48 Major exporters 3/ : 16.41 77.05 1.40 46.60 50.13 23.39 21.33 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.30 20.86 22.06 6.00 10.16 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.91 15.00 11.07 Major importers 4/ : 6.82 18.12 42.29 48.65 62.54 0.39 4.30 China : 4.91 15.41 10.38 20.40 28.31 0.30 2.10 EU-15 : 0.85 1.23 18.30 17.34 19.23 0.06 1.08 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.88 5.21 0.00 0.67 Mexico : 0.18 0.07 4.51 4.61 4.66 0.00 0.10 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 32.14 196.66 64.69 166.51 192.10 63.82 37.56 United States : 5.66 74.82 0.13 43.97 47.56 28.44 4.61 Total foreign : 26.48 121.83 64.56 122.54 144.54 35.38 32.95 Major exporters 3/ : 21.33 92.20 1.72 52.16 56.15 33.72 25.38 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.40 23.51 24.83 9.34 11.90 Brazil : 11.07 52.50 1.32 27.45 30.04 21.46 13.38 Major importers 4/ : 4.30 18.71 52.44 54.45 68.49 0.35 6.61 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.99 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-15 : 1.08 0.81 17.24 16.28 18.01 0.06 1.06 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.15 4.08 5.38 0.00 0.70 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 37.29 200.14 66.57 174.62 201.67 66.34 36.00 November : 37.57 201.48 67.50 175.73 202.63 67.17 36.75 United States : October : 4.61 67.18 0.20 41.10 44.78 23.68 3.53 November : 4.61 66.73 0.22 40.42 43.95 24.22 3.39 Total foreign : October : 32.68 132.97 66.38 133.52 156.89 42.66 32.47 November : 32.96 134.75 67.28 135.31 158.68 42.94 33.36 Major exporters 3/ : October : 25.06 101.25 1.90 57.91 62.44 40.63 25.15 November : 25.38 102.50 1.90 58.71 63.30 40.91 25.57 Argentina Oct : 11.24 37.00 0.40 25.20 26.64 11.60 10.40 Nov : 11.90 38.00 0.40 25.80 27.32 12.00 10.98 Brazil Oct : 13.81 60.00 1.50 31.61 34.59 26.00 14.72 Nov : 13.38 60.00 1.50 31.61 34.59 25.80 14.49 Major importers 4/ : October : 6.64 18.22 53.64 57.52 72.05 0.39 6.05 November : 6.61 18.22 54.74 58.14 72.66 0.38 6.52 China Oct : 4.50 16.20 20.50 28.30 36.86 0.30 4.04 Nov : 4.47 16.20 22.00 29.25 37.81 0.29 4.57 EU-15 Oct : 1.06 0.70 18.60 17.64 19.45 0.06 0.85 Nov : 1.06 0.70 18.60 17.64 19.45 0.06 0.85 Japan Oct : 0.70 0.28 5.15 4.00 5.43 0.00 0.70 Nov : 0.70 0.28 5.15 4.00 5.43 0.00 0.70 Mexico Oct : 0.05 0.09 4.80 4.78 4.82 0.00 0.11 Nov : 0.05 0.09 4.40 4.44 4.49 0.00 0.05 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-404-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 3.79 125.38 43.99 126.71 42.36 4.10 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.00 6.81 0.22 Total foreign : 3.44 88.83 43.86 96.71 35.54 3.88 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.67 0.33 9.38 30.49 0.99 Argentina : 0.10 16.50 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.30 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 7.90 11.98 0.65 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.14 32.36 27.78 56.53 3.34 1.42 EU-15 : 0.62 13.91 19.54 30.92 2.27 0.87 China : 0.00 16.30 0.02 15.27 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.10 131.77 45.46 133.61 43.85 3.87 United States : 0.22 34.66 0.15 29.33 5.49 0.20 Total foreign : 3.88 97.11 45.31 104.28 38.36 3.67 Major exporters 3/ : 0.99 42.98 0.33 9.94 33.33 1.02 Argentina : 0.30 18.57 0.00 0.26 18.28 0.33 Brazil : 0.65 21.68 0.33 8.25 13.75 0.65 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.44 1.30 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.42 36.83 27.89 61.97 3.04 1.13 EU-15 : 0.87 13.12 19.74 30.84 2.26 0.63 China : 0.00 21.37 0.03 20.64 0.76 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 3.81 138.14 48.15 138.08 48.00 4.03 November : 3.87 139.34 48.44 139.19 48.41 4.05 United States : October : 0.23 32.60 0.31 28.40 4.54 0.20 November : 0.20 32.06 0.31 28.30 4.08 0.18 Total foreign : October : 3.59 105.54 47.84 109.68 43.46 3.83 November : 3.67 107.28 48.14 110.88 44.33 3.87 Major exporters 3/ : October : 1.02 48.79 0.33 10.74 38.32 1.07 November : 1.02 49.54 0.33 10.62 39.22 1.04 Argentina Oct : 0.33 19.91 0.00 0.27 19.65 0.33 Nov : 0.33 20.38 0.00 0.27 20.12 0.33 Brazil Oct : 0.65 24.97 0.33 8.78 16.50 0.67 Nov : 0.65 24.97 0.33 8.78 16.50 0.67 India Oct : 0.04 3.92 0.00 1.70 2.17 0.08 Nov : 0.04 4.19 0.00 1.58 2.60 0.05 Major importers 4/ : October : 1.13 38.68 29.26 64.74 3.10 1.24 November : 1.13 39.71 29.62 66.22 3.00 1.24 EU-15 Oct : 0.63 14.03 20.31 32.11 2.18 0.68 Nov : 0.63 14.15 20.46 32.38 2.18 0.68 China Oct : 0.00 22.37 0.00 21.47 0.90 0.00 Nov : 0.00 23.28 0.20 22.68 0.80 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-404-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 2.72 28.87 8.32 28.70 8.63 2.57 United States : 1.25 8.57 0.02 7.64 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.46 20.30 8.30 21.07 7.49 1.50 Major exporters 3/ : 0.47 11.70 0.17 5.24 6.60 0.50 Argentina : 0.10 3.88 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.13 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.10 1.78 0.18 EU-15 : 0.18 3.11 0.02 2.02 1.10 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.46 4.48 2.00 6.48 0.06 0.41 China : 0.28 3.58 0.37 3.96 0.06 0.21 India : 0.18 0.86 1.55 2.39 0.00 0.19 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.57 30.57 9.56 31.32 9.54 1.84 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.74 1.04 0.67 Total foreign : 1.50 22.21 9.54 23.59 8.50 1.16 Major exporters 3/ : 0.50 12.55 0.11 5.23 7.61 0.33 Argentina : 0.13 4.37 0.00 0.12 4.33 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.25 0.07 3.15 2.24 0.10 EU-15 : 0.20 2.92 0.04 1.96 1.03 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.40 3.38 8.75 0.06 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.71 6.35 0.05 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.58 2.27 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.14 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 2.05 31.88 9.44 31.94 9.57 1.87 November : 1.84 32.12 9.86 32.30 9.72 1.80 United States : October : 0.71 7.72 0.04 7.53 0.39 0.55 November : 0.67 7.59 0.04 7.39 0.39 0.52 Total foreign : October : 1.34 24.16 9.40 24.41 9.18 1.31 November : 1.16 24.53 9.82 24.91 9.33 1.27 Major exporters 3/ : October : 0.35 13.87 0.14 5.62 8.29 0.45 November : 0.33 14.01 0.14 5.67 8.37 0.43 Argentina Oct : 0.05 4.66 0.00 0.13 4.51 0.08 Nov : 0.05 4.80 0.00 0.13 4.64 0.08 Brazil Oct : 0.10 6.04 0.10 3.32 2.75 0.17 Nov : 0.10 6.04 0.10 3.32 2.75 0.17 EU-15 Oct : 0.20 3.17 0.04 2.16 1.04 0.21 Nov : 0.18 3.17 0.04 2.22 0.98 0.19 Major importers 4/ : October : 0.53 5.89 2.90 8.83 0.06 0.44 November : 0.38 6.12 3.30 9.30 0.09 0.42 China Oct : 0.40 4.95 1.30 6.35 0.05 0.25 Nov : 0.25 5.12 1.75 6.79 0.08 0.25 India Oct : 0.13 0.91 1.50 2.34 0.01 0.18 Nov : 0.13 0.97 1.45 2.38 0.01 0.17 Pakistan Oct : 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.01 Nov : 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-404-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2002 : IV : 6783 5255 12148 7936 1482 9552 21700 1835 41.6 Annual : 27090 19664 47169 32240 5713 38500 85669 7221 169.8 : 2003 : I : 6287 4889 11275 7770 1379 9275 20550 1776 42.9 II : 6907 4734 11738 8238 1438 9808 21546 1788 43.9 III : 7078 4796 11966 8451 1405 9984 21950 1809 41.5 IV*: 6500 5300 11898 8175 1475 9775 21673 1830 41.7 Annual : Oct Proj : 26649 19668 46704 32558 5717 38793 85497 7219 170.3 Nov Proj : 26772 19719 46877 32634 5697 38842 85719 7203 170.1 : 2004 : I*: 6150 4900 11149 8000 1390 9520 20669 1775 43.5 II*: 6550 4775 11419 8475 1450 10065 21484 1795 44.3 III*: 6700 4825 11617 8625 1450 10210 21827 1835 41.9 Annual : Oct Proj : 25375 19775 45531 33250 5790 39570 85101 7300 172.3 Nov Proj : 25400 19725 45506 33450 5790 39770 85276 7260 171.7 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2002 : IV : 69.10 31.34 53.7 68.2 75.5 11.97 Annual : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.11 : 2003 : I : 77.82 35.38 60.3 61.1 77.2 11.37 II : 78.49 42.64 59.6 60.6 73.9 11.07 III : 83.07 42.90 63.4 59.1 89.9 13.20 IV*: 100-102 34-36 61-63 65-67 99-101 14.30-14.60 Annual : Oct Proj : 81.35 39.73 61.3 61.2 84.0 12.40-12.50 Nov Proj : 85.10 38.98 61.3 61.7 85.3 12.45-12.55 : 2004 : I*: 89-95 38-40 58-62 59-63 87-93 12.10-12.70 II*: 82-88 39-43 60-64 60-64 82-88 10.90-11.80 III*: 77-83 40-44 61-67 61-67 86-94 11.35-12.35 Annual : Oct Proj : 79-86 38-42 58-63 61-66 82-88 11.55-12.45 Nov Proj : 82-88 38-42 59-64 61-66 87-93 11.70-12.60 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-404-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2002 : 606 27192 3218 31016 2447 691 27878 67.6 2003 Proj. Oct : 691 26754 2891 30336 2628 525 27183 65.2 Nov : 691 26877 2851 30419 2628 500 27291 65.5 2004 Proj. Oct : 525 25480 3430 29435 2660 600 26175 62.2 Nov : 500 25505 3430 29435 2660 550 26225 62.3 : PORK : 2002 : 536 19685 1070 21291 1611 533 19147 51.5 2003 Proj. Oct : 533 19690 1250 21473 1681 540 19252 51.2 Nov : 533 19741 1250 21524 1681 540 19303 51.4 2004 Proj. Oct : 540 19797 1375 21712 1695 540 19477 51.3 Nov : 540 19747 1375 21662 1695 540 19427 51.2 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2002 : 1160 47305 4450 52915 4065 1238 47612 120.9 2003 Proj. Oct : 1238 46845 4302 52385 4315 1079 46991 118.1 Nov : 1238 47018 4265 52521 4315 1054 47152 118.5 2004 Proj. Oct : 1079 45672 4976 51727 4360 1154 46213 115.1 Nov : 1054 45647 4976 51677 4360 1104 46213 115.1 : BROILERS : 2002 : 712 31895 12 32619 4807 763 27049 80.5 2003 Proj. Oct : 763 32210 13 32985 4916 700 27370 80.6 Nov : 763 32285 13 33060 4916 625 27520 81.1 2004 Proj. Oct : 700 32894 12 33606 5100 650 27856 81.2 Nov : 625 33092 12 33729 5100 650 27979 81.6 : TURKEYS : 2002 : 241 5638 1 5879 439 333 5108 17.7 2003 Proj. Oct : 333 5642 1 5976 452 350 5174 17.7 Nov : 333 5622 1 5956 452 325 5179 17.8 2004 Proj. Oct : 350 5714 1 6065 465 350 5249 17.8 Nov : 325 5714 1 6040 465 325 5249 17.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2002 : 960 38079 16 39056 5380 1101 32575 99.6 2003 Proj. Oct : 1101 38370 17 39488 5469 1056 32963 99.8 Nov : 1101 38418 17 39536 5469 956 33111 100.2 2004 Proj. Oct : 1056 39138 17 40211 5675 1006 33529 100.5 Nov : 956 39336 17 40309 5675 981 33652 100.8 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2002 : 2120 85384 4466 91971 9445 2339 80187 220.5 2003 Proj. Oct : 2339 85215 4319 91873 9784 2135 79954 217.9 Nov : 2339 85436 4282 92057 9784 2010 80263 218.8 2004 Proj. Oct : 2135 84810 4993 91938 10035 2160 79742 215.6 Nov : 2010 84983 4993 91986 10035 2085 79865 216.0 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-404-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2003 Projected : 2004 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2001 : 2002 : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 12.0 12.0 Production : 7155.0 7221.0 7219.0 7203.0 7300.0 7260.0 Imports : 8.9 15.0 13.3 13.3 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7175.2 7246.4 7242.6 7226.6 7324.0 7284.0 : Use : Exports : 190.0 174.0 154.5 154.5 173.0 173.0 Hatching use : 964.2 961.3 956.3 957.0 980.0 980.0 Ending stocks : 10.4 10.3 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 6010.6 6100.8 6119.8 6103.1 6159.0 6119.0 Per capita (number) : 252.6 253.6 251.8 251.1 250.9 249.2 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Proj 1/: 2003/04 Proj 1/ Commodity :2000/01:2001/02:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 8.9 8.8 11.2 11.2 11.5 11.0 Production : 165.2 169.2 170.0 169.9 171.9 171.4 Farm use : 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 164.0 168.0 169.0 168.8 170.9 170.4 Imports 2/ : 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.1 4.9 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.3 182.0 185.3 185.0 187.5 186.3 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 169.2 170.5 172.6 172.7 177.1 176.7 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.5 11.0 9.7 9.1 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.5 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 6.3 9.6 8.6 9.2 6.1 6.1 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 12.29 11.03 10.63 10.63 10.75- 10.95- : 11.55 11.65 : Class IV : 13.88 11.22 10.05 10.05 9.60- 9.70- : 10.60 10.60 : All milk 5/ : 14.51 12.74 11.87 11.90 11.95- 12.15- : 12.75 12.85 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 0 0 29 29 20 15 Cheese : 17 9 47 47 15 10 Nonfat dry milk : 525 817 697 751 515 515 Dry whole milk : 3 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-404-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 22-year record of the differences between the November projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the November projection and the final estimate have averaged 5.0 million tons (0.9%) ranging from -18.1 to 7.2 million tons. The November projection has been below the estimate 14 times and above 8 times. Reliability of November Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.9 5.0 -18.1 7.2 14 8 U.S. : 0.3 0.2 -1.2 0.5 11 9 Foreign : 1.1 5.0 -18.2 7.4 14 8 Exports : World : 3.5 4.0 -12.6 5.8 16 6 U.S. : 6.3 2.1 -8.6 3.8 7 15 Foreign : 5.1 4.1 -11.2 5.5 18 4 Domestic use : World : 1.1 5.8 -18.0 10.9 12 9 U.S. : 5.6 1.7 -2.5 3.6 9 13 Foreign : 1.2 5.8 -21.1 10.7 15 7 Ending stocks : World : 5.2 6.5 -18.7 12.1 14 8 U.S. : 10.1 2.3 -7.0 5.4 12 10 Foreign : 5.2 5.2 -15.3 11.1 15 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.9 7.8 -20.8 7.8 15 7 U.S. : 1.0 2.2 -7.5 5.8 12 10 Foreign : 1.2 7.4 -18.1 6.0 15 7 Exports : World : 4.7 4.9 -11.0 12.4 14 8 U.S. : 12.6 6.6 -14.7 13.6 11 11 Foreign : 10.4 5.5 -14.5 8.4 13 9 Domestic use : World : 1.1 8.9 -18.7 21.9 12 10 U.S. : 3.0 5.3 -17.2 17.1 12 10 Foreign : 1.2 7.4 -12.5 22.2 13 9 Ending stocks : World : 9.8 12.3 -32.1 13.2 17 5 U.S. : 16.5 8.2 -23.9 16.1 13 9 Foreign : 13.0 9.2 -22.9 6.7 18 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.9 6.4 -16.8 1.9 19 3 U.S. : 2.9 0.2 -0.3 0.5 10 11 Foreign : 1.9 6.3 -16.9 1.7 19 3 Exports : World : 8.1 1.5 -6.0 0.9 17 5 U.S. : 6.9 0.2 -0.7 0.6 12 7 Foreign : 9.5 1.5 -6.0 1.0 16 6 Domestic use : World : 1.5 4.9 -17.5 1.7 19 3 U.S. : 6.1 0.2 -0.4 0.5 12 10 Foreign : 1.5 4.9 -17.7 1.6 19 3 Ending stocks : World : 9.7 4.1 -13.9 3.6 16 6 U.S. : 18.1 0.2 -0.8 0.8 12 10 Foreign : 10.4 4.2 -14.0 3.3 16 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-404-33 Reliability of November Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.5 3.2 -7.6 3.6 14 8 U.S. : 1.8 1.0 -2.7 2.1 7 15 Foreign : 4.4 2.9 -7.9 3.4 15 7 Exports : World : 5.3 2.0 -9.4 2.8 15 7 U.S. : 8.2 1.8 -4.1 5.2 14 8 Foreign : 16.7 1.9 -8.0 5.0 11 11 Domestic use : World : 2.5 3.2 -6.9 2.8 16 6 U.S. : 2.8 1.1 -3.6 2.0 16 6 Foreign : 3.3 2.8 -5.8 3.2 17 5 Ending stocks : World : 12.6 2.5 -7.6 5.3 13 9 U.S. : 30.3 2.2 -3.3 4.9 5 17 Foreign : 17.0 2.5 -8.0 3.1 14 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.5 2.0 -6.5 5.8 14 8 U.S. : 2.4 0.4 -0.8 0.9 12 9 Foreign : 3.0 2.1 -6.8 5.6 13 9 Exports : World : 4.0 1.0 -2.6 1.5 13 9 U.S. : 13.8 0.8 -2.2 1.5 12 10 Foreign : 5.2 0.9 -3.0 1.7 9 12 Mill use : World : 2.1 1.7 -6.0 2.9 10 11 U.S. : 4.7 0.4 -0.9 1.1 13 9 Foreign : 2.2 1.6 -5.5 3.4 11 11 Ending stocks : World : 10.1 3.5 -8.6 10.8 11 11 U.S. : 24.6 1.0 -2.1 2.3 7 15 Foreign : 10.3 3.2 -9.3 10.2 13 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2002/03 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 22 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-404-34 Reliability of United States November Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 1.0 77 -250 159 12 9 Exports : 12.8 229 -575 483 10 12 Domestic use : 3.3 201 -574 535 15 7 Ending stocks : 19.2 317 -986 732 11 11 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.4 16 -53 52 10 12 Exports : 16.3 39 -115 97 13 8 Domestic use : 10.1 43 -114 127 9 13 Ending stocks : 32.2 35 -104 82 10 12 : BARLEY : Production : 1.2 5 -12 24 8 10 Exports : 21.6 13 -37 30 10 10 Domestic use : 5.5 21 -30 70 9 12 Ending stocks : 10.1 15 -38 23 14 7 : OATS : Production : 0.9 3 -18 16 7 7 Exports : 48.2 1 -4 7 6 6 Domestic use : 3.7 14 -39 36 12 10 Ending stocks : 13.4 16 -46 52 14 8 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.8 869 -2578 1370 14 8 Exports : 8.3 563 -1900 1450 10 12 Domestic use : 2.6 621 -1277 1300 12 10 Ending stocks : 25.6 64 -249 188 9 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.8 395 -1418 740 14 8 Exports : 21.3 322 -900 964 10 12 Domestic use : 2.5 317 -985 500 15 7 Ending stocks : 17.6 273 -728 708 9 13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.8 939 -716 2461 14 6 Pork : 2.8 454 -1240 1592 11 9 Broilers : 1.7 381 -1337 546 13 7 Turkeys : 2.3 100 -444 211 14 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.3 81 -127 163 14 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.8 -6.0 3.6 9 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2002/03 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 22 for crops and 20 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2002 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 2001/02 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ------------- End of File ------------------