WASDE-368 November 9, 2000 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks of wheat are up 4 million bushels from last month as reduced exports more than offset a lower crop and smaller imports. Estimated U.S. production is revised down 16 million bushels from the Small Grains report (published September 29) because of reduced area and yield of spring wheat (including durum) in North Dakota. Projected imports are 5 million bushels below last month's projection because of the smaller than expected pace to date. Prospective exports are down 25 million bushels from last month because of increased competition. The projected price range is up 10 cents on the low end to $2.45 to $2.75 cents per bushel due to recent higher cash and farm prices. Global 2000/01 supply and use projections are little changed from last month, although there are several country-specific changes. Prospective Australian production is down 1 million tons from last month because of continued dry weather in parts of the country. Offsetting this decline is larger Argentine production due to increased area and good growing conditions. Based on harvest results, output is higher for Kazakstan but lower for Uzbekistan. Given the smaller prospective crop, lower exports are projected for Australia. The larger crops and exports for Argentina and Kazakstan will be more than offsetting. In addition, India's prospective exports are higher than last month due to the announcement that the Government will subsidize exports. Projected imports are higher for Uzbekistan and Eastern Europe. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks of corn are down from last month because of a smaller crop. Forecast corn production, at 10,054 million bushels, is down 138 million bushels from last month. This month's reduced production is due to a 1.9-bushel- per-acre drop in forecast yield, placing yields slightly below the 1994 record. Given the tighter supply/use balance, the projected price range is up 5 cents on each end to $1.70 to $2.10 per bushel. Global 2000/01 production is down from last month, largely because of the smaller U.S. corn crop. In aggregate, foreign production is little changed from last month, with the larger Ukraine corn crop offsetting smaller corn production in Eastern Europe. Projected global coarse grain imports are slightly higher than last month, largely due to higher South Korean corn imports. Projected corn exports are higher for Ukraine due to the larger crop. The smaller U.S. corn stocks account for most of the reduction in projected 2000/01 global ending stocks of coarse grains. RICE: The U.S. 2000/01 rice crop is projected at 192.4 million cwt, up slightly from last month. Yields are forecast at a record 6,236 pounds per acre, up 6 pounds per acre from last month, and 370 pounds per acre above 1999/2000. Ending stocks are projected at 27.3 million cwt, up slightly from last month. The season-average price projection is unchanged at $5.75 to $6.25 per cwt. Global production and ending stocks for 2000/01 are raised slightly from a month ago, while consumption and exports are lowered slightly. World rice production is raised primarily due to larger crops projected for Japan and South Korea, partially offset by reductions in Argentina and Vietnam. Global rice stocks in 2000/01 are raised slightly but are down over 3 million tons from 1999/2000. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2000/01 are off slightly this month as reduced production is partially offset by lower exports and crush prospects. U.S. oilseed production, at 85.7 million tons, is off 1.2 million tons this month, due mostly to a decline in soybeans. Soybean production is forecast at 75.6 million tons, or 2.78 billion bushels, down 46 million bushels from last month, based on reduced yield. The soybean yield is forecast at 38.0 bushels per acre, 0.7 bushels below last month, but still above last year's 36.6 bushels per acre. Other oilseed crop changes this month include minor increases for cottonseed and peanuts. U.S. soybean stocks are reduced to 350 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from last month as prospective export and crush declines are less than the drop in production. Projected total U.S. soybean and product exports are down, based mostly on increased prospective South American soybean supplies and exports. U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 950 million bushels, 15 million bushels below last month. Soybean crush is lowered by a like amount to 1,600 million bushels as both exports and domestic use of soybean meal are cut. Soybean meal exports are forecast at 7.1 million short tons, off 0.2 million tons. Domestic use is cut to 31.0 million tons, also off 0.2 million tons. Soybean oil exports are reduced this month, dropping 250 million pounds to 1.65 billion pounds, mainly because of increased production and exports of vegetable oils by foreign competitors and smaller soybean oil imports by China. U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are increased to 2.145 billion pounds this month, the highest since 1991/92. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2000/01 are projected at $4.40 to $5.00 per bushel, down from $4.60 to $5.20 last month, as increasing foreign supplies of soybeans and a weak global vegetable oil market pressure seed prices. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 14 to 17 cents per pound, off 1 cent from last month. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $160 to $180 per short ton, compared with $160 to $185 last month. Global oilseed production for 2000/01 is projected at a record 302.5 million metric tons, up 2.4 million tons from last year, but off 1.1 million tons from last month, mainly because of a decline in U.S. oilseed production. Foreign oilseed production is forecast at 216.8 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from last month, mainly due to gains in South America's soybean production and sunflowerseed output in Russia and Ukraine. Declines in forecast production of Indian peanuts, Argentine sunflowerseed, and Australian rapeseed production are nearly offsetting. Brazil's soybean crop is projected at a record 34.5 million tons, up 1 million tons from last month, based on favorable planting conditions and a reported sharp rise in the use of fertilizer and other inputs. Brazilian growers are well-capitalized this year based on timely sales of last year's crop and greater availability of credit. Argentina's soybean production is projected at a record 23.0 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from last month, based on prospects for larger planted area as growers continue to switch out of sunflowerseed. Global oilseed exports are up slightly this month in response to larger South American soybean exports and larger FSU sunflowerseed exports. World crush is down slightly this month due to reduced peanut crushings in India that are only partially offset by higher soybean and cottonseed crush. SUGAR: Projected 2000/01 sugar supply is increased 283,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, based on larger carryin stocks than reported last month. Production and use forecasts are unchanged from October. Total ending stocks are projected at 1.903 million tons and the ratio of total stocks to use is 18.0 percent, compared with 15.3 percent last month. The Payment In Kind Diversion Program is projected to result in ending stocks held by the Commodity Credit Corporation of between 780,000 and 810,000 tons, leaving ending stocks in private ownership at between 1.123 and 1.093 million tons. For 1999/2000, final estimates of production, deliveries, and ending stocks result in several changes. Imports under the TRQ are raised 33,000 tons, reflecting newly-reported arrivals from Brazil. Deliveries are reduced 104,000 tons, as September deliveries were lower than expected. Season-ending stocks are increased by 283,000 tons, leaving a statistical discrepancy of minus 138,000 tons. The season-ending stocks-to-use ratio is increased to 21.8 percent, compared with 18.8 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecasts of total meat production in 2000 and 2001 are lowered. Broiler production forecasts for 2000 and 2001 are lowered this month due to continued signs that production growth is slowing. The beef production forecast is reduced slightly for fourth-quarter 2000 as September placements were slightly lower than expected. Lighter weight cattle have been placed on feed and are being fed longer to achieve Choice grade. Pork production forecasts are unchanged from last month. Prices in 2000 are little changed. For 2001, cattle prices are raised due to continued strong demand for Choice grade cattle. Broiler prices are raised due to lower forecast production and increased exports. The 2000/01 forecasts for milk production and the all milk price are increased due to the continuation of the dairy price support program. Both cow numbers and milk per cow are projected higher than last month. Milk production is forecast to exceed 1999/2000 levels in each quarter. The support program also will increase CCC net removals of nonfat dry milk in calender year 2001. Recent low cheese prices are expected to encourage processors to offer cheese to the CCC. Class III prices are lowered due weakness in cheese prices. However, continuation of CCC buying to support the price of NDM will boost Class IV prices above last month's forecast. COTTON: Changes to this month's 2000/01 U.S. estimates include lower domestic mill use and higher ending stocks. Production is virtually unchanged. Domestic mill use is reduced 100,000 bales to 10.0 million bales because of mill closures, reflecting a loss of market share to textile imports. The export estimate is unchanged. Ending stocks are pegged at 3.9 million bales, up 100,000 from last month and 22.2 percent of total use. The 2000/01 world production and consumption estimates also are trimmed slightly this month. Production is reduced mainly in Uzbekistan, and consumption mainly in Russia and the United States. World trade and ending stocks are about unchanged from last month. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: RICHARD ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on December 12, 2000. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report will be released on the following dates in 2001: Jan. 11, Feb. 8, Mar. 8, Apr. 10, May 10, June 12, July 11, Aug. 10, Sept. 12, Oct. 12, Nov. 9, and Dec. 11. USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum 2001 will take place on February 22-23, 2001. See page 34 for details.ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. 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WASDE-368-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1998/99 : 1,872.21 2,213.55 256.92 1,846.77 366.78 1999/00 (Est.) : 1,864.60 2,231.38 270.96 1,876.27 355.11 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 1,840.23 2,196.61 266.53 1,885.40 311.21 November : 1,836.64 2,191.75 267.78 1,883.78 307.97 Wheat : 1998/99 : 588.39 727.12 123.01 590.81 136.30 1999/00 (Est.) : 586.33 722.64 130.38 595.55 127.09 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 579.91 708.08 126.16 596.68 111.39 November : 579.87 706.96 126.78 595.96 110.99 Coarse grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 889.82 1,037.70 106.98 867.25 170.45 1999/00 (Est.) : 875.78 1,046.23 116.81 880.83 165.40 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 862.98 1,028.46 115.28 887.29 141.17 November : 859.06 1,024.46 115.96 886.63 137.83 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 394.00 448.73 26.93 388.70 60.03 1999/00 (Est.) : 402.49 462.51 23.78 399.90 62.62 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 397.33 460.08 25.09 401.44 58.64 November : 397.71 460.33 25.04 401.19 59.14 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1998/99 : 346.60 411.49 87.04 246.64 77.81 1999/00 (Est.) : 332.37 415.84 88.85 251.48 75.51 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 347.08 428.36 96.80 255.68 75.89 November : 343.03 424.18 96.23 255.57 72.38 Wheat : 1998/99 : 69.33 91.79 28.36 37.69 25.74 1999/00 (Est.) : 62.57 90.89 29.65 35.38 25.85 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 60.94 89.51 30.62 34.73 24.17 November : 60.51 88.95 29.94 34.73 24.28 Coarse grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 271.47 312.69 55.95 205.37 51.37 1999/00 (Est.) : 263.34 317.48 56.40 212.29 48.80 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 280.08 331.61 63.66 217.08 50.87 November : 276.46 327.98 63.77 216.97 47.24 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 5.80 7.01 2.73 3.59 0.69 1999/00 (Est.) : 6.46 7.47 2.80 3.81 0.86 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 6.06 7.25 2.52 3.87 0.85 November : 6.07 7.25 2.52 3.87 0.86 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-368-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 1,525.61 1,802.05 169.88 1,600.12 288.97 1999/00 (Est.) : 1,532.23 1,815.55 182.12 1,624.79 279.60 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 1,493.15 1,768.25 169.73 1,629.73 235.32 November : 1,493.61 1,767.57 171.55 1,628.21 235.59 Wheat : 1998/99 : 519.06 635.32 94.64 553.13 110.56 1999/00 (Est.) : 523.77 631.75 100.73 560.17 101.24 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 518.97 618.56 95.54 561.95 87.23 November : 519.35 618.01 96.84 561.24 86.71 Coarse grains 5/ : 1998/99 : 618.34 725.01 51.04 661.88 119.08 1999/00 (Est.) : 612.44 728.75 60.41 668.54 116.61 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 582.91 696.85 51.62 670.21 90.31 November : 582.61 696.48 52.19 669.66 90.59 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 388.21 441.72 24.20 385.12 59.33 1999/00 (Est.) : 396.03 455.04 20.98 396.08 61.76 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 391.28 452.83 22.57 397.56 57.79 November : 391.65 453.08 22.52 397.31 58.29 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1998/99 : 84.72 128.44 23.74 85.05 45.08 1999/00 (Est.) : 87.06 132.13 27.21 91.27 40.64 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 86.90 127.37 26.75 92.70 34.99 November : 86.68 127.32 26.69 92.53 35.10 : United States 1998/99 : 13.92 18.25 4.34 10.40 3.94 1999/00 (Est.) : 16.97 21.00 6.75 10.24 3.92 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 17.49 21.48 7.60 10.10 3.80 November : 17.51 21.51 7.60 10.00 3.90 : Foreign 3/ 1998/99 : 70.81 110.19 19.39 74.65 41.14 1999/00 (Est.) : 70.09 111.13 20.46 81.03 36.72 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 69.41 105.88 19.15 82.60 31.19 November : 69.17 105.81 19.09 82.53 31.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-368-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 294.13 322.05 54.64 240.98 30.45 1999/00 (Est.) : 300.10 330.55 64.51 248.35 29.65 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 303.58 332.46 60.34 250.17 27.94 November : 302.50 332.15 60.84 249.57 28.37 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 164.87 170.41 53.95 163.69 6.36 1999/00 (Est.) : 169.87 176.23 54.95 169.98 6.11 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 172.14 178.25 55.27 172.35 5.57 November : 171.92 178.02 55.20 172.07 5.60 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 80.70 87.36 31.44 78.90 7.44 1999/00 (Est.) : 84.74 92.18 32.44 83.22 7.96 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 86.02 94.03 32.68 85.99 7.74 November : 85.89 93.84 32.67 85.76 7.72 : : United States Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 84.36 91.49 22.72 47.81 10.78 1999/00 (Est.) : 82.31 93.85 27.34 47.94 8.91 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 86.90 96.37 27.16 48.70 10.74 November : 85.68 95.14 26.70 48.29 10.41 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 36.80 38.33 6.71 31.29 0.33 1999/00 (Est.) : 36.82 38.40 6.80 31.30 0.30 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 37.44 38.89 6.81 31.82 0.27 November : 37.09 38.66 6.66 31.71 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 9.43 11.85 1.64 9.22 1.00 1999/00 (Est.) : 9.37 11.89 1.14 9.53 1.23 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 9.53 12.46 1.34 9.93 1.19 November : 9.45 12.39 1.23 9.90 1.26 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 209.77 230.56 31.92 193.16 19.67 1999/00 (Est.) : 217.79 236.70 37.17 200.41 20.74 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 216.68 236.09 33.18 201.48 17.21 November : 216.82 237.01 34.14 201.28 17.96 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 128.07 132.08 47.24 132.40 6.02 1999/00 (Est.) : 133.05 137.83 48.15 138.68 5.81 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 134.70 139.36 48.47 140.53 5.30 November : 134.83 139.36 48.54 140.36 5.31 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 71.27 75.51 29.80 69.68 6.44 1999/00 (Est.) : 75.37 80.29 31.30 73.70 6.73 2000/01 (Proj.) : October : 76.50 81.57 31.34 76.06 6.55 November : 76.43 81.45 31.44 75.86 6.46 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-368-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 65.8 62.7 62.5 62.5 Harvested : 59.0 53.8 53.2 53.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 43.2 42.7 42.1 41.9 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 722 946 950 950 Production : 2,547 2,299 2,239 2,223 Imports : 103 95 100 95 Supply, total : 3,373 3,339 3,289 3,268 Food : 910 925 940 940 Seed : 81 92 86 86 Feed and residual : 394 284 250 250 Domestic, total : 1,385 1,300 1,276 1,276 Exports : 1,042 1,090 1,125 1,100 Use, total : 2,427 2,390 2,401 2,376 Ending stocks : 946 950 888 892 CCC inventory : 128 104 105 105 Free stocks : 818 846 783 787 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.65 2.48 2.35- 2.75 2.45- 2.75 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1999/00 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 435 233 136 87 55 946 Production : 1,051 448 454 247 99 2,299 Supply, total 3/ : 1,486 741 590 340 182 3,339 Domestic use : 542 293 287 89 89 1,300 Exports : 486 230 170 160 44 1,090 Use, total : 1,028 523 457 249 133 2,390 Ending stocks, total : 458 218 133 91 50 950 : 2000/01 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 458 218 133 91 50 950 Production : 844 498 471 301 110 2,223 Supply, total 3/ : 1,303 775 604 399 188 3,268 Domestic use : 504 297 273 106 96 1,276 Exports : 435 235 195 185 50 1,100 Use, total : 939 532 468 291 146 2,376 Ending stocks, total : November : 364 243 136 108 42 892 October : 344 242 131 118 54 888 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-368-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 101.0 96.6 98.9 98.9 Harvested : 88.9 86.3 88.2 88.2 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.05 3.17 3.13 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 38.1 51.3 48.8 48.8 Production : 271.2 263.1 279.9 276.2 Imports : 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 Supply, total : 312.3 317.1 331.2 327.6 Feed and residual : 152.3 157.2 160.6 160.5 Food, seed & industrial : 52.7 54.7 56.2 56.2 Domestic, total : 205.0 211.9 216.8 216.6 Exports : 55.9 56.4 63.7 63.8 Use, total : 261.0 268.3 280.4 280.4 Ending stocks, total : 51.3 48.8 50.8 47.2 CCC inventory : 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Free stocks : 51.0 48.4 50.4 46.8 Outstanding loans : 10.3 10.2 12.9 12.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 80.2 77.4 79.6 79.6 Harvested : 72.6 70.5 73.0 73.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 134.4 133.8 139.6 137.7 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,308 1,787 1,715 1,715 Production : 9,759 9,437 10,192 10,054 Imports : 19 15 10 10 Supply, total : 11,085 11,239 11,917 11,779 Feed and residual : 5,471 5,673 5,850 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 1,846 1,913 1,975 1,975 Domestic, total : 7,318 7,587 7,825 7,825 Exports : 1,981 1,937 2,275 2,275 Use, total : 9,298 9,524 10,100 10,100 Ending stocks, total : 1,787 1,715 1,817 1,679 CCC inventory : 12 14 15 15 Free stocks : 1,775 1,701 1,802 1,664 Outstanding loans : 391 392 500 500 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 1.80 1.65- 2.05 1.70- 2.10 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-368-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.3 9.0 9.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.5 7.7 7.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.3 69.7 60.7 60.4 Beginning stocks : 49 65 65 65 Production : 520 595 465 463 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 569 660 531 529 Feed and residual : 262 284 230 230 Food, seed & industrial : 45 55 50 50 Total domestic : 307 339 280 280 Exports : 197 256 200 200 Use, total : 504 595 480 480 Ending stocks, total : 65 65 51 49 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.66 1.55 1.45- 1.85 1.55- 1.95 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 5.2 5.8 5.8 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.9 4.7 5.2 5.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.0 59.2 61.4 61.1 Beginning stocks : 119 142 111 111 Production : 352 280 320 318 Imports : 30 28 30 30 Supply, total : 501 450 462 459 Feed and residual : 161 136 150 145 Food, seed & industrial : 170 172 172 172 Total domestic : 331 308 322 317 Exports : 28 30 35 40 Use, total : 360 338 357 357 Ending stocks, total : 142 111 105 102 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.98 2.13 2.10- 2.40 2.10- 2.40 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.2 59.6 64.4 64.2 Beginning stocks : 74 81 76 76 Production : 166 146 150 149 Imports : 108 99 100 100 Supply, total : 348 326 326 325 Feed and residual : 196 180 180 180 Food, seed & industrial : 69 68 68 68 Total domestic : 265 249 248 248 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 266 250 250 250 Ending stocks, total : 81 76 76 75 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.12 1.05- 1.25 1.05- 1.15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-368-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.29 3.53 3.11 3.11 Harvested : 3.26 3.51 3.09 3.09 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,663 5,866 6,230 6,236 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.9 22.1 27.5 27.5 Production : 184.4 206.0 192.2 192.4 Imports : 10.5 10.0 10.3 10.3 Supply, total : 222.9 238.1 230.0 230.2 Domestic & residual 3/ : 114.0 121.4 122.9 122.9 Exports, total 4/ : 86.8 89.2 80.0 80.0 Rough : 25.8 25.2 25.0 25.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 61.1 64.0 55.0 55.0 Use, total : 200.8 210.6 202.9 202.9 Ending stocks : 22.1 27.5 27.1 27.3 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.3 69.1 69.5 69.5 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.89 6.11 5.75- 6.25 5.75- 6.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.57 2.72 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,426 5,587 Beginning stocks : 14.5 14.1 15.6 15.6 Production : 139.3 151.9 130.4 130.6 Supply, total 7/ : 162.4 173.4 155.1 155.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.9 86.7 80.0 80.0 Exports 8/ : 71.4 71.1 62.0 62.0 Use, total : 148.3 157.8 142.0 142.0 Ending stocks : 14.1 15.6 13.1 13.3 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.69 0.79 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,548 6,822 Beginning stocks : 12.3 6.8 10.4 10.4 Production : 45.1 54.2 61.7 61.8 Supply, total 7/ : 59.4 63.2 73.4 73.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 37.2 34.7 42.9 42.9 Exports 8/ : 15.4 18.1 18.0 18.0 Use, total : 52.5 52.8 60.9 60.9 Ending stocks : 6.8 10.4 12.5 12.5 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1998/99-1.1; 1999/00-1.2 2000/01-1.4. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-368-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 72.0 73.7 74.5 74.5 Harvested : 70.4 72.4 73.0 73.0 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.9 36.6 38.7 38.0 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 200 348 288 288 Production : 2,741 2,654 2,823 2,777 Imports : 3 4 3 3 Supply, total : 2,944 3,006 3,114 3,068 Crushings : 1,590 1,579 1,615 1,600 Exports : 805 973 965 950 Seed : 88 90 90 90 Residual : 113 77 79 77 Use, total : 2,595 2,719 2,749 2,717 Ending stocks : 348 288 365 350 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.93 4.65 4.60- 5.20 4.40 - 5.00 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,382 1,520 1,970 2,001 Production : 18,081 17,826 18,330 18,160 Imports : 82 85 90 84 Supply, total : 19,546 19,431 20,390 20,245 Domestic : 15,655 16,054 16,500 16,450 Exports : 2,371 1,375 1,900 1,650 Use, total : 18,027 17,429 18,400 18,100 Ending stocks : 1,520 2,001 1,990 2,145 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 19.90 15.60 15.00- 14.00- : 18.00 17.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 218 330 225 293 Production : 37,792 37,632 38,410 38,017 Imports : 99 50 65 65 Supply, total : 38,109 38,012 38,700 38,375 Domestic : 30,657 30,459 31,200 31,000 Exports : 7,122 7,260 7,250 7,100 Use, total : 37,779 37,719 38,450 38,100 Ending stocks : 330 293 250 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 138.50 167.00 160.00- 160.00- : 185.00 180.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-368-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2000/ 1 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :====================== : : Estimate : October November ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,679 1,639 1,944 2,227 Production 2/3/ : 8,374 9,042 8,446 8,446 Beet sugar : 4,423 4,976 4,350 4,350 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,951 4,065 4,096 4,096 Imports 2/ : 1,824 1,643 1,790 1,790 TRQ 5/ : 1,256 1,124 1,275 1,275 Other 6/ : 568 519 515 515 Total supply : 11,877 12,324 12,180 12,463 : Exports 2/7/ : 230 124 175 175 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,066 10,111 10,385 10,385 Domestic food use : 9,872 9,993 10,225 10,225 Other 8/ : 194 118 160 160 Miscellaneous 9/ : (58) (138) 0 0 Use, total : 10,238 10,235 10,560 10,560 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,639 2,227 1,620 1,903 Private : 0 1,930 780-810 1093-1123 CCC : 1,639 297 810-840 780-810 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.0 21.8 15.3 18.0 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2000/01 are based on November Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1999/2000 (projected 2000/01): FL 1,976 (1,943); HI 318 (300); LA 1,662 (1,650); TX 105 (180); PR 4 (23). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2000/01 available TRQ includes projected shortfall of 65,000 tons. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ For 1998/99 and 1999/2000, includes residual statistical discrepancies. 10/ For 2000/01, assumes 280,000 tons to 310,000 tons (STRV) are paid out for the Payment-In-Kind Diversion Program. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-368-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.39 14.87 15.53 15.53 Harvested : 10.68 13.42 13.54 13.52 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 625 607 620 622 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.89 3.94 3.92 3.92 Production : 13.92 16.97 17.49 17.51 Imports : 0.44 0.10 0.08 0.08 Supply, total : 18.25 21.00 21.48 21.51 Domestic use : 10.40 10.24 10.10 10.00 Exports : 4.34 6.75 7.60 7.60 Use, total : 14.75 16.99 17.70 17.60 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.44 0.09 -0.02 0.01 Ending stocks : 3.94 3.92 3.80 3.90 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 60.2 45.0 50.9 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Average for August-September 2000. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2000/01 is 22.2 percent. WASDE-368-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 138.73 588.39 121.01 106.98 590.81 123.01 136.30 United States : 19.66 69.33 2.80 10.73 37.69 28.36 25.74 Total foreign : 119.06 519.06 118.21 96.25 553.13 94.64 110.56 Major exporters 4/ : 22.26 161.67 25.41 53.28 106.07 75.51 27.76 Argentina : 0.42 12.40 0.03 0.25 4.15 8.40 0.30 Australia : 1.35 22.11 0.06 2.63 5.04 16.47 2.00 Canada : 5.99 24.08 0.15 4.10 8.08 14.71 7.44 EU-15 : 14.50 103.09 25.17 46.31 88.81 35.93 18.02 Major importers 5/ : 50.49 178.61 36.17 18.76 212.08 5.71 47.48 Brazil : 0.55 2.19 7.30 0.20 9.26 0.01 0.78 China : 33.46 109.73 0.83 5.00 115.57 0.54 27.90 East. Europe : 7.64 33.23 2.13 11.95 31.50 4.51 7.00 N. Africa : 4.41 14.20 16.82 0.31 28.34 0.23 6.85 Pakistan : 3.21 18.69 3.13 0.40 21.28 0.00 3.75 Selected other : India : 10.08 66.35 1.99 0.35 67.34 0.00 11.08 FSU-12 6/ : 17.24 56.13 5.42 16.57 64.40 8.75 5.65 Russia : 8.00 27.00 2.49 11.15 34.84 1.65 1.00 Kazakstan : 3.00 4.70 0.02 1.10 4.62 2.30 0.80 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 136.30 586.33 128.61 113.62 595.55 130.38 127.09 United States : 25.74 62.57 2.57 7.72 35.38 29.65 25.85 Total foreign : 110.56 523.77 126.03 105.90 560.17 100.73 101.24 Major exporters 4/ : 27.76 163.34 25.75 54.15 106.46 85.43 24.95 Argentina : 0.30 15.50 0.03 0.30 4.20 11.20 0.43 Australia : 2.00 24.10 0.05 2.80 5.21 17.84 3.10 Canada : 7.44 26.85 0.18 3.90 7.90 19.17 7.40 EU-15 : 18.02 96.89 25.50 47.15 89.15 37.23 14.03 Major importers 5/ : 47.48 175.17 34.57 17.86 213.63 4.64 38.95 Brazil : 0.78 2.50 7.50 0.20 9.63 0.00 1.15 China : 27.90 113.88 1.01 5.00 117.00 0.54 25.25 East. Europe : 7.00 28.65 2.15 11.05 30.47 3.53 3.80 N. Africa : 6.85 11.71 15.95 0.31 28.99 0.17 5.35 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.00 0.40 21.40 0.00 2.20 Selected other : India : 11.08 70.78 1.70 0.35 69.25 0.20 14.11 FSU-12 6/ : 5.65 65.19 7.79 16.96 65.31 6.81 6.52 Russia : 1.00 31.00 4.80 11.30 35.50 0.30 1.00 Kazakstan : 0.80 11.20 0.02 1.50 5.00 4.50 2.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-368-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 128.16 579.91 124.63 103.09 596.68 126.16 111.39 November : 127.09 579.87 125.29 103.22 595.96 126.78 110.99 United States : October : 25.85 60.94 2.72 6.80 34.73 30.62 24.17 November : 25.85 60.51 2.59 6.80 34.73 29.94 24.28 Total foreign : October : 102.32 518.97 121.91 96.29 561.95 95.54 87.23 November : 101.24 519.35 122.71 96.42 561.24 96.84 86.71 Major exporters 4/ : October : 26.78 166.59 25.00 57.95 111.13 82.40 24.85 November : 24.95 166.76 25.00 57.48 110.29 82.40 24.03 Argentina Oct : 0.43 15.50 0.03 0.30 4.35 11.00 0.60 Nov : 0.43 16.50 0.03 0.45 4.50 12.00 0.45 Australia Oct : 3.93 21.00 0.05 3.30 5.75 16.50 2.73 Nov : 3.10 20.00 0.05 2.68 5.16 15.50 2.49 Canada Oct : 7.40 25.50 0.15 4.20 8.20 18.00 6.85 Nov : 7.40 25.50 0.15 4.20 8.20 18.00 6.85 EU-15 Oct : 15.03 104.60 24.78 50.15 92.83 36.90 14.68 Nov : 14.03 104.77 24.78 50.15 92.43 36.90 14.25 Major importers 5/ : October : 38.55 162.88 35.63 14.06 209.46 4.05 23.55 November : 38.95 162.88 35.93 14.46 209.46 4.35 23.95 Brazil Oct : 0.95 1.80 7.70 0.20 9.65 0.00 0.80 Nov : 1.15 1.80 7.70 0.60 9.65 0.00 1.00 China Oct : 25.25 102.00 2.00 2.00 114.00 0.50 14.75 Nov : 25.25 102.00 2.00 2.00 114.00 0.50 14.75 East. Europe Oct : 3.80 27.75 2.88 10.15 29.30 2.48 2.65 Nov : 3.80 27.75 3.18 10.15 29.30 2.78 2.65 N. Africa Oct : 5.15 9.73 17.00 0.31 28.71 0.17 3.00 Nov : 5.35 9.73 17.00 0.31 28.71 0.17 3.20 Pakistan Oct : 2.20 21.00 0.15 0.50 21.60 0.50 1.25 Nov : 2.20 21.00 0.15 0.50 21.60 0.50 1.25 Selected other : India Oct : 14.11 74.30 0.05 0.50 71.50 0.50 16.46 Nov : 14.11 74.30 0.05 0.50 71.50 1.00 15.96 FSU-12 6/ Oct : 6.52 65.84 5.74 17.41 65.40 5.10 7.60 Nov : 6.52 66.04 6.04 17.41 65.40 5.60 7.60 Russia Oct : 1.00 36.50 2.50 12.70 37.00 0.50 2.50 Nov : 1.00 36.50 2.50 12.70 37.00 0.50 2.50 Kazakstan Oct : 2.52 9.00 0.02 1.50 5.00 4.00 2.53 Nov : 2.52 9.50 0.02 1.50 5.00 4.50 2.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-368-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 147.88 889.82 108.30 571.51 867.25 106.98 170.45 United States : 38.15 271.47 3.07 152.38 205.37 55.95 51.37 Total foreign : 109.73 618.34 105.24 419.12 661.88 51.04 119.08 Major exporters 4/ : 8.66 62.06 1.52 36.17 47.14 16.96 8.14 Argentina : 2.44 17.75 0.01 8.05 10.03 8.58 1.59 Australia : 1.14 9.60 0.02 3.86 5.12 4.98 0.66 Canada : 4.27 26.57 0.83 20.12 23.58 3.21 4.88 Major importers 5/ : 41.49 200.04 65.41 173.22 237.71 26.59 42.63 EU-15 : 21.99 105.55 17.34 73.16 97.33 23.23 24.31 East. Europe : 10.21 51.24 1.64 39.95 51.61 3.09 8.39 Japan : 2.64 0.15 20.92 16.55 21.27 0.00 2.44 Mexico : 2.85 24.70 9.10 17.47 33.50 0.02 3.13 Southeast Asia : 0.95 15.94 3.12 13.33 18.06 0.25 1.70 South Korea : 0.50 0.49 7.83 6.10 8.33 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 37.09 144.19 2.62 90.40 127.90 3.36 52.63 FSU-12 6/ : 12.32 37.97 1.51 26.45 45.04 2.30 4.45 Russia : 7.42 18.95 1.19 13.62 25.64 0.14 1.78 Ukraine : 3.31 10.35 0.04 6.18 10.58 1.62 1.50 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 170.45 875.78 112.97 582.20 880.83 116.81 165.40 United States : 51.37 263.34 2.77 157.32 212.29 56.40 48.80 Total foreign : 119.08 612.44 110.21 424.88 668.54 60.41 116.61 Major exporters 4/ : 8.14 66.51 1.00 35.34 47.23 18.46 9.97 Argentina : 1.59 20.66 0.01 8.39 10.58 9.70 1.98 Australia : 0.66 8.01 0.02 3.24 4.36 3.81 0.52 Canada : 4.88 26.77 0.73 19.20 23.68 3.46 5.24 Major importers 5/ : 42.63 200.87 67.71 177.37 241.87 29.29 40.05 EU-15 : 24.31 103.05 16.16 72.62 96.60 25.90 21.02 East. Europe : 8.39 54.41 1.79 40.70 52.72 3.25 8.62 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.42 16.31 20.84 0.00 2.22 Mexico : 3.13 25.95 9.54 18.99 34.99 0.02 3.61 Southeast Asia : 1.70 14.86 4.44 14.40 19.33 0.13 1.54 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 9.28 7.13 9.39 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 52.63 138.64 2.55 92.60 130.17 9.95 53.70 FSU-12 6/ : 4.45 40.35 2.38 26.50 41.77 1.87 3.54 Russia : 1.78 21.80 1.96 14.52 24.56 0.25 0.72 Ukraine : 1.50 9.95 0.06 6.17 9.37 0.85 1.28 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-368-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 165.48 862.98 111.39 587.37 887.29 115.28 141.17 November : 165.40 859.06 112.07 587.29 886.63 115.96 137.83 United States : October : 48.80 280.08 2.73 160.67 217.08 63.66 50.87 November : 48.80 276.46 2.73 160.56 216.97 63.77 47.24 Total foreign : October : 116.68 582.91 108.66 426.70 670.21 51.62 90.31 November : 116.61 582.61 109.34 426.73 669.66 52.19 90.59 Major exporters 4/ : October : 9.99 62.09 1.60 36.04 47.94 17.84 7.91 November : 9.97 62.02 1.55 36.07 47.90 17.91 7.74 Argentina Oct : 1.98 19.82 0.01 8.51 10.70 9.35 1.76 Nov : 1.98 19.82 0.01 8.51 10.70 9.40 1.71 Australia Oct : 0.55 8.91 0.02 3.68 4.66 3.96 0.85 Nov : 0.52 8.81 0.02 3.65 4.64 3.98 0.73 Canada Oct : 5.24 24.45 1.35 19.47 23.68 3.53 3.82 Nov : 5.24 24.45 1.35 19.47 23.68 3.53 3.82 Major importers 5/ : October : 40.09 190.90 65.85 171.79 236.37 27.03 33.44 November : 40.05 189.17 66.88 171.60 235.65 26.93 33.51 EU-15 Oct : 21.02 108.15 15.82 75.28 99.61 26.07 19.31 Nov : 21.02 108.39 15.82 75.23 99.55 26.07 19.60 East. Europe Oct : 8.81 39.03 1.82 32.17 44.45 0.80 4.40 Nov : 8.62 37.06 2.24 31.43 43.19 0.70 4.03 Japan Oct : 2.31 0.16 19.99 15.87 20.28 0.00 2.18 Nov : 2.22 0.16 19.99 15.87 20.28 0.00 2.09 Mexico Oct : 3.41 26.00 9.53 19.64 35.33 0.02 3.60 Nov : 3.61 26.00 9.53 19.64 35.33 0.02 3.80 Southeast Asia Oct : 1.54 15.16 4.20 14.67 19.45 0.15 1.30 Nov : 1.54 15.16 4.30 14.77 19.55 0.15 1.30 South Korea Oct : 0.81 0.49 8.45 6.85 9.16 0.00 0.60 Nov : 0.86 0.49 8.95 7.35 9.66 0.00 0.64 Selected other : China Oct : 53.62 114.60 2.65 95.07 132.35 4.03 34.48 Nov : 53.70 114.60 2.65 95.07 132.35 4.03 34.56 FSU-12 6/ Oct : 3.54 45.27 0.80 27.32 43.11 1.71 4.78 Nov : 3.54 46.77 0.80 27.62 43.41 2.31 5.38 Russia Oct : 0.72 26.00 0.53 14.80 24.93 0.30 2.02 Nov : 0.72 26.00 0.53 14.80 24.93 0.40 1.92 Ukraine Oct : 1.28 10.70 0.06 6.68 9.95 0.90 1.19 Nov : 1.28 12.20 0.06 6.98 10.25 1.40 1.89 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-368-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 98.10 605.55 75.55 402.66 580.72 75.06 122.93 United States : 33.22 247.88 0.48 138.98 185.88 50.31 45.39 Total foreign : 64.88 357.67 75.08 263.68 394.84 24.75 77.54 Major exporters 4/ : 2.36 21.22 0.57 8.70 14.33 8.09 1.73 Argentina : 1.54 13.50 0.00 4.85 6.45 7.88 0.71 South Africa : 0.82 7.72 0.57 3.85 7.88 0.20 1.02 Major importers 5/ : 17.96 94.62 50.21 94.50 134.42 11.68 16.69 EU-15 : 4.47 35.30 11.77 30.12 38.95 8.93 3.66 Japan : 1.45 0.00 16.34 12.10 16.44 0.00 1.36 Mexico : 1.50 17.79 5.62 7.51 23.04 0.02 1.85 Southeast Asia : 0.95 15.74 3.12 13.14 17.85 0.25 1.70 South Korea : 0.50 0.08 7.52 5.92 7.62 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 35.98 132.95 0.26 87.00 114.30 3.34 51.56 FSU-12 6/ : 2.73 5.35 0.62 4.31 6.91 0.43 1.35 Russia : 0.55 0.80 0.52 1.05 1.71 0.01 0.15 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.93 605.12 78.99 421.10 602.70 81.60 125.35 United States : 45.39 239.72 0.37 144.11 192.71 49.21 43.57 Total foreign : 77.54 365.40 78.62 277.00 409.99 32.39 81.78 Major exporters 4/ : 1.73 26.78 0.10 9.10 14.78 10.50 3.34 Argentina : 0.71 16.20 0.00 5.00 6.80 9.00 1.11 South Africa : 1.02 10.58 0.10 4.10 7.98 1.50 2.23 Major importers 5/ : 16.69 101.64 50.84 100.65 140.20 10.93 18.05 EU-15 : 3.66 37.22 10.70 31.41 39.91 7.96 3.70 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.12 12.15 16.32 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 1.85 19.00 4.60 7.65 23.10 0.02 2.34 Southeast Asia : 1.70 14.66 4.44 14.21 19.13 0.13 1.54 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.69 6.65 8.40 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 51.56 128.09 0.15 90.00 116.95 9.94 52.91 FSU-12 6/ : 1.35 4.95 0.81 4.55 6.20 0.15 0.76 Russia : 0.15 1.10 0.70 1.15 1.85 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-368-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 125.62 592.36 78.95 429.37 612.68 81.11 105.29 November : 125.35 588.38 79.57 429.02 611.85 81.51 101.89 United States : October : 43.57 258.88 0.25 148.60 198.76 57.79 46.15 November : 43.57 255.38 0.25 148.60 198.76 57.79 42.65 Total foreign : October : 82.05 333.47 78.70 280.77 413.92 23.33 59.14 November : 81.78 333.00 79.32 280.42 413.09 23.73 59.24 Major exporters 4/ : October : 3.34 24.00 0.05 9.30 15.30 9.70 2.39 November : 3.34 24.00 0.05 9.30 15.30 9.70 2.39 Argentina Oct : 1.11 15.50 0.00 5.20 7.00 8.70 0.91 Nov : 1.11 15.50 0.00 5.20 7.00 8.70 0.91 South Africa Oct : 2.23 8.50 0.05 4.10 8.30 1.00 1.48 Nov : 2.23 8.50 0.05 4.10 8.30 1.00 1.48 Major importers 5/ : October : 18.29 92.50 50.77 98.19 138.18 8.73 14.65 November : 18.05 90.54 51.70 97.65 137.37 8.63 14.27 EU-15 Oct : 3.70 38.54 10.68 31.93 40.81 7.92 4.19 Nov : 3.70 38.59 10.68 31.93 40.81 7.92 4.24 Japan Oct : 1.26 0.00 16.30 12.30 16.35 0.00 1.21 Nov : 1.16 0.00 16.30 12.30 16.35 0.00 1.11 Mexico Oct : 2.34 19.00 5.80 9.30 24.40 0.02 2.72 Nov : 2.34 19.00 5.80 9.30 24.40 0.02 2.72 Southeast Asia Oct : 1.54 14.96 4.20 14.48 19.25 0.15 1.30 Nov : 1.54 14.96 4.30 14.58 19.35 0.15 1.30 South Korea Oct : 0.81 0.09 8.00 6.50 8.30 0.00 0.60 Nov : 0.86 0.09 8.50 7.00 8.80 0.00 0.64 Selected other : China Oct : 52.83 105.00 0.15 93.00 120.00 4.00 33.98 Nov : 52.91 105.00 0.15 93.00 120.00 4.00 34.06 FSU-12 6/ Oct : 0.76 5.71 0.26 4.24 5.82 0.15 0.75 Nov : 0.76 7.21 0.26 4.54 6.12 0.65 1.45 Russia Oct : 0.10 2.00 0.20 1.40 2.10 0.00 0.20 Nov : 0.10 2.00 0.20 1.40 2.10 0.00 0.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-368-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 3/ : 54.73 394.00 25.96 388.70 26.93 60.03 United States : 0.88 5.80 0.33 3.59 2.73 0.69 Total foreign : 53.85 388.21 25.63 385.12 24.20 59.33 Major exporters 4/ : 11.67 125.96 0.07 108.27 16.42 13.01 Thailand : 1.05 15.18 0.00 8.90 6.68 0.65 Vietnam : 0.00 20.11 0.06 15.61 4.56 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 7.03 52.71 12.61 61.84 1.38 9.12 Indonesia : 3.53 32.10 3.90 35.50 0.00 4.03 Selected other : China : 26.72 139.10 0.17 136.00 2.71 27.29 Japan : 3.05 8.15 0.65 9.10 0.20 2.55 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 3/ : 60.03 402.49 21.54 399.90 23.78 62.62 United States : 0.69 6.46 0.32 3.81 2.80 0.86 Total foreign : 59.33 396.03 21.22 396.08 20.98 61.76 Major exporters 4/ : 13.01 129.81 0.09 112.49 12.65 17.77 Thailand : 0.65 15.65 0.00 9.00 6.00 1.30 Vietnam : 0.00 20.75 0.04 17.39 3.40 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 9.12 53.60 9.62 62.99 1.37 7.97 Indonesia : 4.03 32.10 2.00 35.70 0.00 2.43 Selected other : China : 27.29 138.94 0.20 137.00 3.20 26.23 Japan : 2.55 8.35 0.72 9.45 0.15 2.02 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 62.74 397.33 24.30 401.44 25.09 58.64 November : 62.62 397.71 24.35 401.19 25.04 59.14 United States : October : 0.86 6.06 0.33 3.87 2.52 0.85 November : 0.86 6.07 0.33 3.87 2.52 0.86 Total foreign : October : 61.88 391.28 23.98 397.56 22.57 57.79 November : 61.76 391.65 24.03 397.31 22.52 58.29 Major exporters 4/ : October : 17.92 129.40 0.09 113.34 14.10 19.97 November : 17.77 129.25 0.09 113.19 14.10 19.82 Thailand Oct : 1.30 15.85 0.00 9.10 6.60 1.45 Nov : 1.30 15.85 0.00 9.10 6.60 1.45 Vietnam Oct : 0.00 20.75 0.04 16.79 4.00 0.00 Nov : 0.00 20.60 0.04 16.64 4.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : October : 7.97 52.55 11.40 63.88 1.29 6.75 November : 7.97 52.55 11.45 63.93 1.29 6.75 Indonesia Oct : 2.43 32.10 3.00 36.00 0.00 1.53 Nov : 2.43 32.10 3.00 36.00 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China Oct : 26.23 136.50 0.25 136.75 3.40 22.83 Nov : 26.23 136.50 0.25 136.75 3.40 22.83 Japan Oct : 2.02 8.10 0.75 9.25 0.50 1.12 Nov : 2.02 8.62 0.75 9.25 0.50 1.64 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-368-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 24.78 159.83 40.44 135.91 160.18 38.67 26.19 United States : 5.44 74.60 0.08 43.26 48.74 21.90 9.48 Total foreign : 19.34 85.23 40.36 92.65 111.45 16.77 16.71 Major exporters 3/ : 13.74 54.30 1.10 39.17 42.14 14.46 12.53 Argentina : 7.23 20.00 0.50 17.51 18.27 3.23 6.22 Brazil : 6.50 31.30 0.60 21.01 23.17 8.93 6.30 Major importers 4/ : 4.97 18.63 31.92 38.16 51.02 0.89 3.61 EU-15 : 1.00 1.54 16.77 16.23 17.76 0.70 0.85 Japan : 0.63 0.16 4.81 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.62 China : 3.02 15.15 3.85 12.61 19.93 0.19 1.90 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 26.19 157.68 47.84 136.97 160.71 47.00 24.01 United States : 9.48 72.22 0.11 42.97 47.50 26.49 7.83 Total foreign : 16.71 85.46 47.74 94.00 113.21 20.51 16.18 Major exporters 3/ : 12.53 56.10 1.70 38.95 41.97 18.20 10.16 Argentina : 6.22 20.70 1.00 17.30 18.07 4.60 5.25 Brazil : 6.30 32.50 0.70 21.00 23.20 11.40 4.90 Major importers 4/ : 3.61 17.43 38.16 39.89 52.89 0.93 5.37 EU-15 : 0.85 1.14 15.75 15.16 16.34 0.70 0.69 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.85 3.73 5.01 0.00 0.64 China : 1.90 14.29 10.10 14.87 22.45 0.23 3.62 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 23.28 166.23 45.16 140.98 165.24 45.09 24.34 November : 24.01 166.35 45.23 141.20 165.47 45.37 24.74 United States : October : 7.83 76.82 0.08 43.95 48.54 26.26 9.93 November : 7.83 75.58 0.08 43.54 48.10 25.86 9.54 Total foreign : October : 15.45 89.41 45.08 97.03 116.70 18.83 14.41 November : 16.18 90.77 45.14 97.66 117.37 19.52 15.21 Major exporters 3/ : October : 9.76 59.10 1.00 40.05 43.18 16.60 10.09 November : 10.16 60.50 1.00 40.45 43.58 17.30 10.79 Argentina Oct : 5.15 22.60 0.50 17.80 18.58 4.40 5.28 Nov : 5.25 23.00 0.50 18.00 18.77 4.40 5.58 Brazil Oct : 4.60 33.50 0.50 21.60 23.90 9.90 4.80 Nov : 4.90 34.50 0.50 21.80 24.10 10.60 5.20 Major importers 4/ : October : 5.04 18.19 35.75 41.09 54.42 0.88 3.67 November : 5.37 18.19 35.76 41.31 54.69 0.87 3.77 EU-15 Oct : 0.74 1.14 16.09 15.47 16.58 0.71 0.67 Nov : 0.69 1.14 15.74 15.11 16.25 0.70 0.62 Japan Oct : 0.64 0.19 4.75 3.72 5.00 0.00 0.58 Nov : 0.64 0.19 4.75 3.72 5.00 0.00 0.58 China Oct : 3.38 15.00 7.25 15.75 23.35 0.15 2.13 Nov : 3.62 15.00 7.50 16.06 23.68 0.15 2.28 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-368-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 3.63 107.81 39.27 107.12 39.06 4.53 United States : 0.20 34.28 0.09 27.81 6.46 0.30 Total foreign : 3.44 73.52 39.18 79.31 32.60 4.23 Major exporters 3/ : 1.31 34.81 0.10 8.46 26.35 1.41 Argentina : 0.36 14.00 0.00 0.46 13.40 0.50 Brazil : 0.94 16.60 0.10 6.65 10.15 0.84 India : 0.00 4.21 0.00 1.34 2.80 0.07 Major importers 4/ : 0.94 24.36 26.58 45.64 5.06 1.18 EU-15 : 0.75 12.91 19.95 27.66 5.04 0.92 China : 0.00 10.02 1.40 11.41 0.01 0.00 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.53 108.90 38.99 109.44 38.90 4.09 United States : 0.30 34.14 0.05 27.63 6.59 0.27 Total foreign : 4.23 74.76 38.95 81.81 32.31 3.82 Major exporters 3/ : 1.41 34.13 0.10 8.55 25.75 1.33 Argentina : 0.50 14.10 0.00 0.47 13.65 0.48 Brazil : 0.84 16.59 0.10 6.92 9.75 0.85 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 25.62 26.03 46.68 5.16 0.99 EU-15 : 0.92 12.02 19.77 26.82 5.13 0.76 China : 0.00 11.82 0.63 12.43 0.01 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 4.08 112.11 39.81 112.55 39.57 3.88 November : 4.09 112.21 39.64 112.48 39.53 3.92 United States : October : 0.20 34.84 0.06 28.30 6.58 0.23 November : 0.27 34.49 0.06 28.12 6.44 0.25 Total foreign : October : 3.88 77.26 39.75 84.25 32.99 3.66 November : 3.82 77.72 39.58 84.35 33.09 3.67 Major exporters 3/ : October : 1.30 35.30 0.10 8.86 26.52 1.32 November : 1.33 35.61 0.10 9.00 26.65 1.39 Argentina Oct : 0.45 14.51 0.00 0.49 14.00 0.48 Nov : 0.48 14.67 0.00 0.49 14.15 0.52 Brazil Oct : 0.85 17.07 0.10 7.15 10.02 0.84 Nov : 0.85 17.22 0.10 7.30 10.00 0.87 India Oct : 0.00 3.72 0.00 1.22 2.50 0.00 Nov : 0.00 3.72 0.00 1.22 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : October : 1.08 26.46 26.67 48.22 5.08 0.91 November : 0.99 26.56 26.50 48.14 5.06 0.85 EU-15 Oct : 0.84 12.31 19.72 27.14 5.06 0.67 Nov : 0.76 11.99 19.54 26.64 5.04 0.61 China Oct : 0.00 12.53 1.00 13.51 0.02 0.00 Nov : 0.00 12.76 1.00 13.75 0.02 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-368-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 2.35 24.68 7.86 24.60 8.07 2.21 United States : 0.63 8.20 0.04 7.10 1.08 0.69 Total foreign : 1.72 16.47 7.83 17.50 7.00 1.52 Major exporters 3/ : 0.90 10.02 0.85 4.78 6.16 0.82 Argentina : 0.33 3.16 0.00 0.11 3.08 0.31 Brazil : 0.41 3.93 0.21 2.85 1.38 0.32 EU-15 : 0.16 2.93 0.64 1.83 1.70 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 3.02 2.19 5.29 0.08 0.21 China : 0.35 2.05 0.95 3.08 0.08 0.19 Pakistan : 0.02 0.00 0.41 0.41 0.00 0.02 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.21 24.79 7.24 24.45 7.35 2.43 United States : 0.69 8.09 0.04 7.28 0.62 0.91 Total foreign : 1.52 16.70 7.20 17.17 6.73 1.52 Major exporters 3/ : 0.82 9.78 0.77 4.74 5.81 0.82 Argentina : 0.31 3.12 0.00 0.11 3.00 0.33 Brazil : 0.32 3.93 0.22 2.99 1.15 0.32 EU-15 : 0.20 2.73 0.55 1.64 1.66 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.25 1.55 4.64 0.08 0.29 China : 0.19 2.45 0.56 2.84 0.08 0.28 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 2.44 25.49 7.65 25.69 7.64 2.25 November : 2.43 25.59 7.59 25.63 7.63 2.35 United States : October : 0.89 8.31 0.04 7.48 0.86 0.90 November : 0.91 8.24 0.04 7.46 0.75 0.97 Total foreign : October : 1.55 17.18 7.61 18.21 6.78 1.35 November : 1.52 17.35 7.55 18.17 6.88 1.38 Major exporters 3/ : October : 0.82 10.04 0.75 4.92 5.89 0.80 November : 0.82 10.07 0.74 4.81 5.99 0.83 Argentina Oct : 0.33 3.22 0.00 0.11 3.10 0.34 Nov : 0.33 3.25 0.00 0.11 3.13 0.34 Brazil Oct : 0.32 4.04 0.19 3.05 1.20 0.31 Nov : 0.32 4.10 0.19 3.05 1.24 0.32 EU-15 Oct : 0.17 2.78 0.56 1.76 1.59 0.16 Nov : 0.17 2.72 0.55 1.65 1.62 0.16 Major importers 4/ : October : 0.31 3.42 1.78 5.26 0.05 0.20 November : 0.29 3.52 1.72 5.29 0.05 0.20 China Oct : 0.30 2.54 0.80 3.40 0.05 0.20 Nov : 0.28 2.64 0.75 3.43 0.05 0.20 Pakistan Oct : 0.01 0.03 0.28 0.31 0.00 0.01 Nov : 0.01 0.03 0.28 0.31 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-368-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World : 43.71 84.72 25.18 85.05 23.74 -0.25 45.08 United States : 3.89 13.92 0.44 10.40 4.34 -0.44 3.94 Total foreign : 39.83 70.81 24.73 74.65 19.39 0.19 41.14 Major exporters 5/ : 12.40 37.68 1.64 23.80 15.34 -0.03 12.60 Pakistan : 1.52 6.30 0.93 7.00 0.01 0.03 1.71 India : 4.17 12.73 0.51 12.62 0.20 0.00 4.59 Central Asia 6/ : 1.56 6.60 0.01 1.24 5.39 0.00 1.54 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.92 4.03 4/ 0.26 3.57 0.00 1.11 S. Hemis. 8/ : 3.05 5.40 0.20 1.18 4.88 -0.08 2.66 Australia : 1.63 3.29 4/ 0.19 3.04 -0.10 1.79 Argentina : 1.04 0.92 0.02 0.38 1.10 0.01 0.49 Major importers : 25.65 30.05 17.95 43.83 2.81 0.21 26.80 Brazil : 1.49 2.10 1.36 3.60 0.03 0.00 1.32 Mexico : 0.36 1.04 1.49 2.15 0.22 0.04 0.49 China : 19.96 20.70 0.36 19.20 0.68 0.00 21.13 Europe : 1.69 2.30 5.34 6.21 1.39 0.09 1.65 Turkey : 0.56 3.86 1.14 4.60 0.36 0.00 0.59 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.05 8.27 8.07 0.14 0.09 1.62 Indonesia : 0.14 0.01 2.33 2.20 0.00 0.04 0.24 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.47 1.46 0.04 0.00 0.41 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World : 45.08 87.06 27.25 91.27 27.21 0.26 40.64 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.24 6.75 0.09 3.92 Total foreign : 41.14 70.09 27.15 81.03 20.46 0.17 36.72 Major exporters 5/ : 12.60 39.78 2.07 25.19 15.61 -0.03 13.67 Pakistan : 1.71 8.60 0.45 7.65 0.45 0.03 2.64 India : 4.59 12.30 1.20 13.30 0.05 0.00 4.74 Central Asia 6/ : 1.54 7.31 0.01 1.38 5.72 0.00 1.75 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.11 3.89 4/ 0.26 3.59 0.00 1.16 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.66 5.15 0.28 1.21 4.43 -0.08 2.53 Australia : 1.79 3.25 4/ 0.19 3.21 -0.10 1.74 Argentina : 0.49 0.62 0.05 0.40 0.38 0.01 0.36 Major importers : 26.80 27.52 18.83 48.02 3.78 0.20 21.14 Brazil : 1.32 2.90 1.30 3.95 0.05 0.00 1.52 Mexico : 0.49 0.67 1.85 2.40 0.15 0.03 0.43 China : 21.13 17.60 0.12 22.20 1.70 0.00 14.95 Europe : 1.65 2.63 5.20 6.02 1.56 0.08 1.82 Turkey : 0.59 3.68 1.90 5.40 0.18 0.00 0.59 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.62 0.04 8.46 8.06 0.15 0.10 1.82 Indonesia : 0.24 0.01 2.00 1.95 0.02 0.05 0.24 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.53 1.48 0.04 0.00 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 1.38 million bales in 1998/99 and 2.13 million in 1999/2000. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-368-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World : October : 40.47 86.90 27.22 92.70 26.75 0.15 34.99 November : 40.64 86.68 27.17 92.53 26.69 0.18 35.10 United States : October : 3.92 17.49 0.08 10.10 7.60 -0.02 3.80 November : 3.92 17.51 0.08 10.00 7.60 0.01 3.90 Total foreign : October : 36.55 69.41 27.15 82.60 19.15 0.17 31.19 November : 36.72 69.17 27.10 82.53 19.09 0.17 31.20 Major exporters 5/ : October : 13.51 38.95 1.58 25.98 15.36 -0.03 12.73 November : 13.67 38.65 1.58 25.98 15.25 -0.03 12.69 Pakistan Oct : 2.51 8.30 0.15 8.00 0.60 0.03 2.33 Nov : 2.64 8.30 0.15 8.00 0.60 0.03 2.46 India Oct : 4.74 12.30 1.00 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.39 Nov : 4.74 12.30 1.00 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.39 Central Asia 6/Oct : 1.75 6.81 0.01 1.51 5.42 0.00 1.65 Nov : 1.75 6.53 0.01 1.51 5.28 0.00 1.50 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Oct : 1.13 3.51 4/ 0.25 3.33 0.00 1.06 Nov : 1.16 3.44 4/ 0.25 3.30 0.00 1.04 S. Hemis 8/ Oct : 2.53 5.81 0.22 1.27 4.77 -0.08 2.60 Nov : 2.53 5.86 0.22 1.27 4.82 -0.08 2.60 Australia Oct : 1.74 3.40 4/ 0.20 3.20 -0.10 1.84 Nov : 1.74 3.40 4/ 0.20 3.20 -0.10 1.84 Argentina Oct : 0.36 0.85 0.02 0.45 0.50 0.01 0.28 Nov : 0.36 0.85 0.02 0.45 0.50 0.01 0.28 Major importers Oct : 21.14 27.63 19.31 48.61 2.75 0.20 16.53 Nov : 21.14 27.69 19.31 48.59 2.80 0.20 16.56 Brazil Oct : 1.52 3.40 1.00 4.20 0.09 0.00 1.63 Nov : 1.52 3.40 1.00 4.20 0.09 0.00 1.63 Mexico Oct : 0.43 0.30 2.30 2.50 0.08 0.03 0.43 Nov : 0.43 0.36 2.30 2.50 0.10 0.03 0.46 China Oct : 14.95 18.00 0.70 22.50 0.70 0.00 10.45 Nov : 14.95 18.00 0.70 22.50 0.70 0.00 10.45 Europe Oct : 1.82 2.38 5.40 6.14 1.61 0.08 1.78 Nov : 1.82 2.38 5.40 6.11 1.64 0.08 1.78 Turkey Oct : 0.59 3.50 2.10 5.50 0.14 0.00 0.55 Nov : 0.59 3.50 2.10 5.50 0.14 0.00 0.55 Sel. Asia 9/ Oct : 1.82 0.05 7.81 7.78 0.13 0.10 1.68 Nov : 1.82 0.05 7.81 7.78 0.13 0.10 1.68 Indonesia Oct : 0.24 0.01 2.10 2.05 0.01 0.05 0.25 Nov : 0.24 0.01 2.10 2.05 0.01 0.05 0.25 S. Korea Oct : 0.42 4/ 1.40 1.40 0.04 0.00 0.39 Nov : 0.42 4/ 1.40 1.40 0.04 0.00 0.39 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.03 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-368-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1999 : IV : 6522 5110 11756 7367 1393 8894 20650 1786 40.4 Annual : 26386 19278 46134 29741 5297 35590 81724 6912 162.7 : 2000 : I : 6653 4824 11595 7602 1284 9019 20614 1754 42.6 II : 6697 4470 11279 7755 1392 9286 20565 1744 43.2 III : 6914 4601 11618 7500 1331 8966 20584 1750 41.3 IV *: 6525 4975 11608 7550 1425 9105 20713 1790 41.3 Annual : Oct Proj : 26810 18869 46120 30557 5452 36560 82680 7052 168.2 Nov Proj : 26789 18870 46100 30408 5433 36376 82476 7038 168.4 : 2001 : I *: 6500 4775 11386 7800 1325 9265 20651 1760 43.0 II *: 6525 4550 11179 8000 1425 9570 20749 1750 43.8 III *: 6575 4750 11422 7850 1400 9390 20812 1765 41.4 Annual : Oct Proj : 25475 19350 45240 31650 5600 37815 83055 7155 168.7 Nov Proj : 25475 19350 45240 31500 5600 37665 82905 7100 169.7 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1999 : IV : 69.65 36.29 57.6 76.9 63.2 13.83 Annual : 65.56 34.00 58.1 69.0 65.6 14.36 : 2000 : I : 69.32 41.14 54.6 62.9 63.3 11.90 II : 71.59 50.43 55.7 69.0 62.1 12.03 III : 65.43 46.43 56.8 73.9 67.1 12.70 IV *: 68-70 38-40 56-58 77-79 69-71 12.40-12.70 Annual : Oct Proj : 68.84 44.51 55.5 71.0 65.4 12.35-12.45 Nov Proj : 68.84 44.25 56.0 71.0 65.6 12.25-12.35 : 2001 : I *: 69-73 42-44 52-56 60-64 63-67 11.90-12.50 II *: 72-78 43-47 53-57 63-69 58-62 11.45-12.35 III *: 73-79 42-46 55-59 66-72 64-70 12.00-13.00 Annual : Oct Proj : 71-77 40-43 52-56 65-71 61-66 11.65-12.55 Nov Proj : 72-78 40-43 53-57 65-71 63-68 12.15-13.05 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-368-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1999 : 393 26493 2874 29760 2411 411 26938 69.1 2000 Proj. Oct : 411 26916 3018 30345 2539 390 27416 69.7 Nov : 411 26895 3118 30424 2594 440 27390 69.6 2001 Proj. Oct : 390 25581 3050 29021 2465 365 26191 66.0 Nov : 440 25581 3070 29091 2545 365 26181 66.0 : PORK : 1999 : 584 19308 827 20720 1285 489 18945 53.9 2000 Proj. Oct : 489 18899 999 20387 1253 525 18609 52.4 Nov : 489 18900 999 20388 1258 525 18605 52.4 2001 Proj. Oct : 525 19380 1005 20910 1305 550 19055 53.2 Nov : 525 19380 1005 20910 1305 550 19055 53.2 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1999 : 994 46284 3813 51092 3701 914 46476 124.8 2000 Proj. Oct : 914 46269 4134 51317 3798 930 46589 123.9 Nov : 914 46249 4234 51397 3858 980 46559 123.8 2001 Proj. Oct : 930 45389 4169 50488 3774 929 45785 120.9 Nov : 980 45389 4189 50558 3854 929 45775 120.9 : BROILERS : 1999 : 711 29468 4 30183 4920 796 24468 77.0 2000 Proj. Oct : 796 30270 4 31070 5256 850 24964 77.9 Nov : 796 30122 6 30923 5406 850 24667 76.9 2001 Proj. Oct : 850 31324 4 32178 5300 880 25998 80.4 Nov : 850 31176 4 32030 5400 880 25750 79.6 : TURKEYS : 1999 : 304 5230 1 5535 379 254 4902 18.0 2000 Proj. Oct : 254 5382 1 5637 426 225 4986 18.1 Nov : 254 5364 1 5619 416 225 4977 18.1 2001 Proj. Oct : 225 5528 1 5754 420 275 5058 18.2 Nov : 225 5528 1 5754 420 275 5058 18.2 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1999 : 1022 35252 7 36281 5692 1058 29531 95.5 2000 Proj. Oct : 1058 36205 7 37270 5987 1080 30202 96.9 Nov : 1058 36023 9 37090 6082 1080 29927 96.0 2001 Proj. Oct : 1080 37416 7 38503 6040 1165 31297 99.5 Nov : 1080 37268 7 38355 6100 1165 31088 98.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1999 : 2016 81537 3820 87372 9393 1972 76007 220.3 2000 Proj. Oct : 1972 82474 4141 88587 9784 2010 76792 220.7 Nov : 1972 82272 4243 88487 9939 2060 76487 219.8 2001 Proj. Oct : 2010 82805 4176 88991 9814 2094 77082 220.4 Nov : 2060 82657 4196 88913 9954 2094 76863 219.8 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-368-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2000 Projected : 2001 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1998 : 1999 : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.4 8.4 7.6 7.6 10.0 10.0 Production : 6657.9 6912.0 7052.1 7037.5 7155.0 7100.0 Imports : 5.8 7.4 7.0 9.0 5.0 5.0 Total supply : 6671.2 6927.8 7066.7 7054.1 7170.0 7115.0 : Use : Exports : 218.8 161.7 160.8 164.8 170.0 170.0 Hatching use : 921.8 941.7 942.9 941.5 980.0 965.0 Ending stocks : 8.4 7.6 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 Consumption : Total : 5522.2 5816.7 5953.0 5937.8 6015.0 5975.0 Per capita (number) : 244.9 255.7 259.3 258.7 259.9 258.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Proj 1/: 2000/01 Proj 1/ Commodity :1997/98:1998/99:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.9 5.8 7.4 7.4 8.6 8.5 Production : 156.5 161.2 167.4 167.5 168.9 169.6 Farm use : 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 155.1 159.8 166.0 166.2 167.6 168.3 Imports 2/ : 4.1 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.2 4.2 Total cml. supply 2/ : 165.1 170.5 178.1 178.3 180.4 181.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 158.6 162.8 168.8 168.9 172.8 173.1 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.8 7.4 8.6 8.5 7.2 7.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.7 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.5 5.4 8.5 8.5 4.5 7.5 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 13.28 14.04 9.99 9.99 9.65- 9.55- : 10.45 10.25 : Class IV : NA NA 11.51 11.51 10.35- 11.25- : 11.35 12.15 : All milk 6/ : 14.65 15.38 12.62 12.62 11.60- 11.95- : 12.40 12.65 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 21 1 11 11 12 12 Cheese : 8 6 17 17 10 30 Nonfat dry milk : 368 449 690 690 375 615 Dry whole milk : 15 12 34 34 3 3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-368-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 19-year record of the differences between the November projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the November projection and the final estimate have averaged 5.2 million tons (1.0%) ranging from -18.1 to 7.2 million tons. The November projection has been below the estimate 12 times and above 7 times. Reliability of November Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.0 5.2 -18.1 7.2 12 7 U.S. : 0.4 0.2 -1.2 0.5 9 8 Foreign : 1.2 5.2 -18.2 7.4 12 7 Exports : World : 3.6 4.1 -12.6 5.8 14 5 U.S. : 6.2 2.2 -8.6 3.8 7 12 Foreign : 5.1 4.1 -11.2 5.5 16 3 Domestic use : World : 1.1 5.8 -18.0 10.9 11 7 U.S. : 5.9 1.8 -2.5 3.6 8 11 Foreign : 1.2 5.8 -21.1 10.7 14 5 Ending stocks : World : 4.7 5.6 -12.7 12.1 12 7 U.S. : 9.4 2.3 -7.0 5.4 10 9 Foreign : 4.4 4.0 -9.5 6.7 13 6 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.9 7.7 -20.8 7.8 13 6 U.S. : 1.1 2.4 -7.5 5.8 12 7 Foreign : 1.2 7.2 -18.1 6.0 13 6 Exports : World : 5.0 5.2 -11.0 12.4 11 8 U.S. : 12.4 6.6 -14.7 13.6 11 8 Foreign : 9.4 4.8 -9.9 8.4 10 9 Domestic use : World : 1.1 9.0 -18.7 21.9 10 9 U.S. : 3.3 5.8 -17.2 17.1 10 9 Foreign : 1.2 7.5 -12.5 22.2 11 8 Ending stocks : World : 11.0 13.6 -32.1 13.2 14 5 U.S. : 17.4 8.8 -23.9 16.1 10 9 Foreign : 14.3 9.8 -22.9 6.7 17 2 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.1 7.0 -16.8 1.6 18 1 U.S. : 3.0 0.2 -0.3 0.5 9 9 Foreign : 2.1 7.0 -16.9 1.7 18 1 Exports : World : 8.4 1.5 -6.0 0.9 14 5 U.S. : 6.4 0.2 -0.7 0.6 9 7 Foreign : 10.1 1.5 -6.0 1.0 14 5 Domestic use : World : 1.6 5.1 -17.5 1.7 16 3 U.S. : 6.2 0.2 -0.4 0.5 11 8 Foreign : 1.6 5.1 -17.7 1.6 16 3 Ending stocks : World : 10.8 4.3 -13.9 3.6 14 5 U.S. : 17.9 0.2 -0.8 0.8 11 8 Foreign : 11.6 4.4 -14.0 3.3 14 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-368-32 Reliability of November Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.5 2.8 -7.0 3.6 11 8 U.S. : 1.8 1.0 -2.7 2.1 6 13 Foreign : 4.3 2.5 -7.9 3.4 12 7 Exports : World : 4.7 1.5 -5.9 2.8 13 6 U.S. : 8.1 1.6 -2.9 5.2 11 8 Foreign : 16.7 1.5 -4.0 2.2 10 9 Domestic use : World : 2.6 3.1 -6.9 2.8 13 6 U.S. : 2.8 1.1 -3.6 1.1 14 5 Foreign : 3.4 2.7 -5.4 3.2 14 5 Ending stocks : World : 12.2 2.1 -4.1 5.3 10 9 U.S. : 28.7 2.1 -3.3 4.9 5 14 Foreign : 15.4 1.7 -3.4 3.1 11 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.7 2.2 -6.5 5.8 12 7 U.S. : 2.5 0.4 -0.8 0.9 11 7 Foreign : 3.2 2.2 -6.8 5.6 10 9 Exports : World : 4.3 1.0 -2.6 1.5 11 8 U.S. : 14.1 0.8 -2.2 1.5 10 9 Foreign : 5.6 1.0 -3.0 1.7 7 11 Mill use : World : 2.1 1.8 -6.0 2.9 8 10 U.S. : 4.3 0.3 -0.9 0.7 13 6 Foreign : 2.2 1.6 -5.5 3.4 8 11 Ending stocks : World : 10.5 3.6 -8.6 10.8 9 10 U.S. : 24.4 1.0 -1.7 2.3 6 13 Foreign : 10.9 3.3 -9.3 10.2 11 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-98/99 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1999/00 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 19 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-368-33 Reliability of United States November Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 1.1 82 -250 159 11 7 Exports : 12.3 221 -575 483 10 9 Domestic use : 3.7 222 -574 535 12 7 Ending stocks : 20.4 342 -986 732 8 11 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.3 16 -53 52 9 10 Exports : 16.0 39 -115 97 11 7 Domestic use : 9.3 44 -114 127 8 11 Ending stocks : 35.1 39 -104 82 8 11 : BARLEY : Production : 1.3 6 -12 24 7 9 Exports : 21.1 14 -37 30 8 9 Domestic use : 5.5 22 -30 70 9 9 Ending stocks : 10.6 17 -38 23 12 6 : OATS : Production : 1.0 4 -18 16 6 7 Exports : 52.3 1 -4 7 4 6 Domestic use : 4.0 16 -39 36 10 9 Ending stocks : 13.8 17 -46 52 13 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.8 836 -2578 937 12 7 Exports : 9.0 605 -1900 1450 9 10 Domestic use : 2.7 600 -1277 675 11 8 Ending stocks : 27.1 66 -249 188 7 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.0 417 -1418 740 12 7 Exports : 23.6 356 -900 964 9 10 Domestic use : 2.6 314 -985 500 14 5 Ending stocks : 18.1 258 -666 708 7 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.7 901 -716 2461 11 6 Pork : 3.0 477 -1240 1592 9 8 Broilers : 1.7 368 -1337 546 12 5 Turkeys : 2.5 110 -444 211 12 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 86 -127 163 12 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.1 1.6 -6.0 3.6 7 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-98/99 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1999/00 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 19 for crops and 17 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1984 thru 1999 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1983/84 thru 1998/99 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-368-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- END OF FILE -----