ISSN: 1554-9089 WASDE-431 February 9, 2006 WHEAT: No changes are made to projected U.S. 2005/06 wheat imports, domestic use, exports, or ending stocks. No changes are made to projections of wheat by class. The projected 2005/06 price range is $3.35 to $3.45 per bushel, up 10 cents on the lower end and down 5 cents on the upper end from last month. Global wheat production in 2005/06 is down fractionally, consumption is up slightly, imports decrease slightly, and exports increase fractionally from last month. Ending stocks decline nearly 3 million tons and are nearly 8 million tons less than the previous year. Smaller crops in Ukraine, Croatia, and Kyrgyzstan are nearly offset by larger crops in EU-25, Belarus, Serbia, and Azerbaijan. Consumption is up in India and Belarus but down in Ukraine. Relative to last month, imports are projected to decline for China, India, and Russia and increase for EU-25. Exports increase for Brazil and Serbia but decline for Kazakhstan. The largest declines in stocks occur in India, China, and Brazil with smaller declines forecast for several other countries. Stocks are up in EU-25, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2005/06 U.S. corn stocks fall slightly from last month due to increased domestic use. Projected 2005/06 use of corn to produce ethanol is up 25 million bushels from last month based on continued growth in ethanol production and the expected opening of additional ethanol plants. No changes are made to projected U.S. 2005/06 feed and residual use or exports. Ending stocks are down 25 million bushels to 2,401 million but are 287 million larger than the previous year. The projected price range for 2005/06 corn is $1.75 to $2.05 per bushel, unchanged from last month. No changes are made to projected U.S. 2005/06 grain sorghum imports, domestic use, exports, or ending stocks. The projected 2005/06 price range is $1.60 to $1.80 per bushel, narrowed 5 cents on each end from last month. No changes are made to projected U.S. 2005/06 barley domestic use or exports, but imports are 5 million bushels less than last month. Ending stocks fall 5 million bushels. The projected 2005/06 price range is $2.35 to $2.55 per bushel, unchanged from last month. No changes are made to projected U.S. 2005/06 oats imports or domestic use, but exports are 1 million bushels less than last month. Ending stocks rise 1 million bushels. The projected 2005/06 price range is $1.55 to $1.60 per bushel, up 5 cents on the low end from last month. The outlook for global coarse grains in 2005/06 is for little change in production and consumption, but slightly lower trade and lower stocks relative to last month. Larger production in Serbia, Croatia, and EU-25 is nearly offset by smaller crops in Argentina and Ukraine. Consumption is up in Serbia and Argentina but down in Egypt and EU-25. Imports are projected down for Egypt, Croatia, Indonesia, and China but up for Colombia and Russia. Relative to last month, lower exports are projected for Argentina, which are partially offset by larger exports from Serbia, Croatia, and Turkey. Foreign 2005/06 ending stocks rise 1.2 million tons from last month. The largest increases in stocks occur in EU- 25 and Belarus, partially offset by smaller stocks in Serbia, Ukraine, and China. RICE: Only minor changes are made to the U.S. 2005/06 rice supply and use projections from a month ago. On the supply side, all rice imports are unchanged; however, long- grain imports are raised slightly while combined medium- and short-grain imports are lowered by the same amount. On the use side, domestic and residual use is lowered slightly while exports are unchanged from a month ago. Ending stocks are raised slightly to 26.5 million cwt, long-grain stocks are projected at 20.1 million cwt, and combined medium- and short-grain stocks are at a record low of 5.25 million cwt. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $7.65 to $7.95 per cwt. Global 2005/06 rice production, imports, exports, consumption, and ending stocks are raised from a month ago. The increase in global rice production is due mostly to a larger crop projected for India (up 2 million tons to 87 million tons). Rice crops for Pakistan and Ukraine are also raised. Global imports are raised due primarily to increases for Indonesia, Nigeria, Malaysia, and South Africa while imports for Sri Lanka are reduced slightly. Global exports are raised for Vietnam (up 0.5 million tons). World rice ending stocks for 2005/06 are projected at 66.6 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month, down 6.3 million tons from 2004/05, and the lowest stocks since 1982/83. OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2005/06 are increased 50 million bushels this month to a record 555 million bushels. Soybean exports are projected at 910 million bushels, down 40 million from last month, and 193 million below last year's record. Record Brazilian soybean exports for October through January have reduced demand for U.S. soybeans in EU-25 and China, and large new-crop supplies in South America are expected to further pressure U.S. exports in the second half of the marketing year. Domestic soybean meal and oil consumption are both reduced this month reflecting lower-than-expected disappearance during the first quarter of the marketing year. Consequently, U.S. soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels to 1,720 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2005/06 is projected at $5.20 to $5.80 per bushel, up 10 cents on the bottom of the range. Soybean meal and oil price projections are unchanged from last month at 20.5 to 22.5 cents per pound and $165 to $180 per short ton, respectively. Global oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at a record 389.3 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from last month. Small reductions for soybeans and sunflowerseeds are more than offset by increased cottonseed production in China. Global oilseed trade and crush are reduced this month, and global oilseed stocks are projected higher, mainly due to increased U.S. soybean stocks. Global oilseed stocks are projected at a record 63 million tons, 20 percent above year-earlier levels. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2005/06 is increased 316,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Higher imports under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) more than offset reduced high-tier sugar imports from Mexico. The shortfall in filling the TRQ is increased 50,000 tons. Production, based on processor projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency, is little changed. Use is lowered slightly based on slower-than-expected deliveries to manufacturers under the re-export program. Ending stocks are increased to 1.7 million tons, or 16 percent of use. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Note: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2006 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. trading partners. For this month's report, the following conditions are assumed: 1) The recent suspension of beef imports is temporary pending resolution of Japan's concerns. 2) A framework for the reopening of South Korea to imports of U.S. beef has been announced but regulations are still being written to incorporate the requirements. Thus, exports to South Korea are not included in these forecasts. U.S. meat production forecasts for 2006 are lowered from last month as higher forecasts for beef and pork are more than offset by a lower forecast for broiler production. Beef production in 2006 is raised to reflect increased marketings of fed cattle in the last half of 2006. Pork production is increased due to higher than expected carcass weights in the first quarter. Broiler meat production growth in the second half of 2006 is reduced in response to lower expected returns for broiler producers. Turkey and egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month. Beef trade forecasts for 2006 are adjusted to reflect changes in beef trade with Asia. The recent suspension of U.S. beef imports by Japan is assumed to be temporary with trade resuming in the second quarter as the United States responds to Japan's inspection concerns. In addition, forecast exports in subsequent quarters are reduced to reflect expected high U.S. beef prices and a slower pace of export recovery. Part of the decline in exports to Japan is offset by a resumption of exports to Taiwan. Beef imports in 2006 are lowered slightly. Forecast cattle prices for 2006 are increased as supplies of Choice grade cattle remain tight. Hog price forecasts for 2006 are lowered reflecting large supplies of meat. Broiler prices are reduced as supplies of broiler meat have been large and prices are lagging expectations. Forecast milk supply in 2006 is raised slightly as the January 1 Cattle report confirmed increased availability of replacement heifers and more cows are expected to enter the herd. However, most product prices are forecast lower than last month as current prices are below expectations. Increased supplies of dairy products will likely result in lower prices. Although whey prices are expected to be stronger, lower forecast cheese prices will result in a reduced Class III price. Both butter and nonfat dry milk prices are forecast lower than last month, and the Class IV price forecast is lowered to reflect this. The all milk price for 2006 forecast is lowered to $13.10 to $13.80 per cwt. COTTON: This month's U.S. cotton forecasts for 2005/06 include slightly lower domestic mill use, resulting in slightly higher ending stocks. Production and exports are unchanged from last month. Domestic mill use is reduced to 5.9 million bales, as recent months' mill use has fallen below previous expectations. Accordingly, ending stocks are raised to 7.0 million bales, or 31.4 percent of total use. The world 2005/06 forecasts include higher production, consumption, trade, and stocks relative to last month. World production is raised mainly in China, reflecting the recent estimate by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Higher production in China is partially offset by a reduction for Brazil and smaller adjustments for several countries. World consumption is raised as increases for China are partially offset by reductions for India and the United States. The 5 percent increase in China's consumption is based on recent NBS yarn production indicators and is in turn fueling higher import demand for both China and the world. World beginning and ending stocks for 2005/06 are raised significantly this month, primarily reflecting current and historical adjustments in the China balance sheet. Rapid consumption growth and anecdotal reports that government- held stocks are larger than previously estimated have resulted in increases in stock levels beginning in 1995/96 (see http://www.fas.usda.gov/cotton/circular/early/Table1.pdf after 9 a.m. EST on February 9, 2006 for detailed estimates). Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 32. APPROVED: MIKE JOHANNS SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 10, 2006. In 2006, the WASDE report will be released on April 10, May 12, June 9, July 12, August 11, September 12, October 12, November 9, and December 11. 2006 Agricultural Outlook Forum: Prospering in Rural America USDA invites you to attend the 2006 Agricultural Outlook Forum, February 16-17, 2006, in Arlington, Virginia. Among the Forum's speakers are Secretary Mike Johanns and other top officials, industry analysts, business leaders, farmers and ranchers, and experts in agriculture. The Forum offers more than 130 speakers along with numerous networking opportunities 1,500 people are expected to attend. For more information, visit: http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. Mail: Government Printing Office, Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-0001. ELECTRONIC ACCESS This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically in either ascii text format or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. Click on the "Reports by E-Mail" button to sign up for e-mail delivery of the WASDE and other USDA releases in text format. An electronic calendar of USDA release dates is posted at: http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/rptcal/calindex.htm. WASDE-431-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 1,858.85 2,304.03 240.28 1,946.48 357.54 2004/05 (Est.) : 2,037.16 2,394.71 239.51 1,994.51 400.20 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 1,981.77 2,382.10 235.83 2,006.40 375.70 February : 1,983.75 2,383.95 235.67 2,010.01 373.94 Wheat : 2003/04 : 554.59 720.70 109.38 588.59 132.11 2004/05 (Est.) : 626.74 758.85 110.83 609.25 149.60 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 616.43 766.54 110.29 621.84 144.70 February : 616.17 765.77 110.36 623.81 141.96 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 912.87 1,081.63 103.49 942.20 139.42 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,008.27 1,147.69 100.95 969.99 177.70 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 958.46 1,135.61 99.36 970.71 164.90 February : 958.60 1,136.30 98.62 970.96 165.34 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 391.38 501.70 27.41 415.69 86.01 2004/05 (Est.) : 402.15 488.17 27.73 415.27 72.90 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 406.88 479.94 26.19 413.84 66.10 February : 408.99 481.88 26.69 415.24 66.64 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 345.33 395.10 88.59 262.12 44.40 2004/05 (Est.) : 385.61 434.54 83.76 276.07 74.71 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 363.10 442.43 83.07 277.08 82.28 February : 363.10 442.32 83.05 277.71 81.56 Wheat : 2003/04 : 63.81 78.90 31.52 32.51 14.87 2004/05 (Est.) : 58.74 75.53 28.92 31.91 14.70 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 57.28 74.29 27.22 32.33 14.75 February : 57.28 74.29 27.22 32.33 14.75 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 275.10 308.48 53.75 225.96 28.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 319.42 350.38 51.30 240.28 58.80 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 298.74 359.42 52.01 240.70 66.70 February : 298.74 359.31 52.00 241.34 65.97 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 6.42 7.73 3.31 3.66 0.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 7.46 8.64 3.54 3.89 1.21 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 7.09 8.73 3.84 4.05 0.84 February : 7.09 8.73 3.84 4.04 0.84 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-431-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 1,513.51 1,908.92 151.70 1,684.36 313.15 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,651.55 1,960.16 155.75 1,718.44 325.49 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 1,618.66 1,939.66 152.77 1,729.31 293.42 February : 1,620.65 1,941.63 152.62 1,732.30 292.38 Wheat : 2003/04 : 490.78 641.80 77.86 556.09 117.24 2004/05 (Est.) : 568.00 683.32 81.91 577.34 134.90 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 559.15 692.25 83.08 589.51 129.95 February : 558.89 691.48 83.14 591.48 127.22 Coarse grains 5/ : 2003/04 : 637.77 773.15 49.74 716.24 110.66 2004/05 (Est.) : 688.85 797.31 49.65 729.72 118.90 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 659.73 776.19 47.35 730.01 98.19 February : 659.87 776.99 46.63 729.62 99.36 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 384.96 493.97 24.10 412.03 85.25 2004/05 (Est.) : 394.70 479.53 24.19 411.38 71.69 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 399.79 471.22 22.35 409.79 65.27 February : 401.90 473.16 22.85 411.20 65.80 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2003/04 : 95.26 139.50 33.25 98.08 42.87 2004/05 (Est.) : 120.38 163.24 34.70 108.65 54.12 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 112.36 163.97 41.44 115.24 50.77 February : 113.75 167.87 41.85 116.79 52.93 : United States 2003/04 : 18.26 23.69 13.76 6.22 3.51 2004/05 (Est.) : 23.25 26.79 14.41 6.69 5.54 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 23.72 29.30 16.40 6.00 6.90 February : 23.72 29.30 16.40 5.90 7.00 : Foreign 3/ 2003/04 : 77.01 115.81 19.49 91.86 39.36 2004/05 (Est.) : 97.13 136.46 20.29 101.95 48.58 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 88.64 134.68 25.04 109.24 43.87 February : 90.03 138.57 25.45 110.89 45.93 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-431-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 334.89 379.71 67.37 278.35 40.62 2004/05 (Est.) : 380.14 420.76 74.94 301.60 52.19 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 388.98 441.43 78.44 312.20 62.13 February : 389.29 441.47 77.86 311.39 62.59 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 189.38 195.76 58.49 188.98 5.93 2004/05 (Est.) : 205.02 210.96 59.91 203.65 6.08 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 212.93 219.01 62.01 212.12 6.19 February : 212.34 218.42 62.27 210.90 6.19 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 101.70 109.41 38.62 100.34 7.51 2004/05 (Est.) : 110.19 117.71 41.67 108.41 7.91 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 114.24 122.07 43.86 113.51 7.69 February : 114.08 121.99 44.00 113.05 7.76 : : United States Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 76.60 82.94 25.16 45.53 4.15 2004/05 (Est.) : 95.98 100.81 30.86 50.17 8.29 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 96.44 105.29 26.85 51.85 15.46 February : 96.44 105.29 25.75 51.54 16.82 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 35.21 37.30 4.94 32.08 0.27 2004/05 (Est.) : 39.23 41.06 6.94 33.91 0.22 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 39.62 41.34 6.27 34.79 0.29 February : 39.42 41.19 6.28 34.62 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 8.77 11.57 0.74 10.03 0.80 2004/05 (Est.) : 9.74 12.36 0.84 10.45 1.07 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 10.35 13.38 0.95 10.99 1.44 February : 10.27 13.31 0.94 10.94 1.42 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 258.29 296.77 42.21 232.82 36.46 2004/05 (Est.) : 284.17 319.95 44.08 251.44 43.90 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 292.54 336.14 51.59 260.35 46.67 February : 292.85 336.18 52.11 259.84 45.77 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 154.17 158.47 53.55 156.90 5.66 2004/05 (Est.) : 165.79 169.90 52.97 169.74 5.87 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 173.31 177.67 55.74 177.34 5.90 February : 172.92 177.23 55.99 176.27 5.90 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 92.93 97.84 37.87 90.31 6.72 2004/05 (Est.) : 100.46 105.35 40.83 97.96 6.84 2005/06 (Proj.) : January : 103.89 108.70 42.92 102.53 6.25 February : 103.81 108.68 43.06 102.11 6.33 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-431-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.1 59.7 57.2 57.2 Harvested : 53.1 50.0 50.1 50.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 44.2 43.2 42.0 42.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 491 546 540 540 Production : 2,345 2,158 2,105 2,105 Imports : 63 71 85 85 Supply, total : 2,899 2,775 2,730 2,730 Food : 912 905 910 910 Seed : 80 79 78 78 Feed and residual : 203 189 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,194 1,172 1,188 1,188 Exports : 1,158 1,063 1,000 1,000 Use, total : 2,353 2,235 2,188 2,188 Ending stocks : 546 540 542 542 CCC inventory : 61 54 40 40 Free stocks : 485 486 502 502 Outstanding loans : 37 58 55 45 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.40 3.40 3.25- 3.50 3.35- 3.45 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2004/05 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 157 64 72 26 546 Production : 856 525 380 306 90 2,158 Supply, total 3/ : 1,084 690 466 390 145 2,775 Domestic use : 503 217 256 120 76 1,172 Exports : 388 314 122 207 31 1,063 Use, total : 891 531 378 327 108 2,235 Ending stocks, total : 193 159 88 62 38 540 : 2005/06 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 193 159 88 62 38 540 Production : 930 467 309 298 101 2,105 Supply, total 3/ : 1,124 644 420 375 168 2,730 Domestic use : 506 222 270 112 79 1,188 Exports : 445 280 75 170 30 1,000 Use, total : 950 502 344 282 109 2,188 Ending stocks, total : February : 173 141 76 93 59 542 January : 173 141 76 93 59 542 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-431-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.0 97.0 96.3 96.3 Harvested : 85.7 86.0 85.9 85.9 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.21 3.71 3.47 3.47 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 30.9 28.7 58.8 58.8 Production : 274.9 319.2 298.5 298.5 Imports : 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.7 Supply, total : 308.2 350.0 359.1 359.0 Feed and residual : 155.7 166.1 159.7 159.7 Food, seed & industrial : 69.9 73.9 80.7 81.3 Domestic, total : 225.7 239.9 240.4 241.0 Exports : 53.8 51.3 52.0 52.0 Use, total : 279.4 291.2 292.4 293.0 Ending stocks, total : 28.7 58.8 66.7 66.0 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 28.7 58.8 66.7 65.9 Outstanding loans : 4.4 7.2 7.7 7.0 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.6 80.9 81.8 81.8 Harvested : 70.9 73.6 75.1 75.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 142.2 160.4 147.9 147.9 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,087 958 2,114 2,114 Production : 10,089 11,807 11,112 11,112 Imports : 14 11 10 10 Supply, total : 11,190 12,776 13,236 13,236 Feed and residual : 5,795 6,162 6,000 6,000 Food, seed & industrial : 2,537 2,686 2,960 2,985 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 1,168 1,323 1,575 1,600 Domestic, total : 8,332 8,848 8,960 8,985 Exports : 1,900 1,814 1,850 1,850 Use, total : 10,232 10,662 10,810 10,835 Ending stocks, total : 958 2,114 2,426 2,401 CCC inventory : 0 1 1 1 Free stocks : 958 2,113 2,425 2,400 Outstanding loans : 164 280 300 275 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.42 2.06 1.75- 2.05 1.75- 2.05 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-431-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.4 7.5 6.5 6.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.8 6.5 5.7 5.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 52.7 69.6 68.7 68.7 Beginning stocks : 43 34 57 57 Production : 411 454 394 394 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 454 487 451 451 Feed and residual : 182 191 150 150 Food, seed & industrial : 40 55 55 55 Total domestic : 222 246 205 205 Exports : 199 184 170 170 Use, total : 421 430 375 375 Ending stocks, total : 34 57 76 76 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.39 1.79 1.55- 1.85 1.60- 1.80 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.3 4.5 3.9 3.9 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.0 3.3 3.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 69.6 64.8 64.8 Beginning stocks : 69 120 128 128 Production : 278 280 212 212 Imports : 21 12 10 5 Supply, total : 368 412 350 345 Feed and residual : 72 116 70 70 Food, seed & industrial : 157 145 140 140 Total domestic : 229 261 210 210 Exports : 19 23 30 30 Use, total : 248 284 240 240 Ending stocks, total : 120 128 110 105 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.83 2.48 2.35- 2.55 2.35- 2.55 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.6 4.1 4.2 4.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 65.0 64.7 63.0 63.0 Beginning stocks : 50 65 58 58 Production : 144 116 115 115 Imports : 90 88 75 75 Supply, total : 284 268 248 248 Feed and residual : 144 134 120 120 Food, seed & industrial : 73 74 74 74 Total domestic : 217 208 194 194 Exports : 2 3 3 2 Use, total : 219 210 197 196 Ending stocks, total : 65 58 51 52 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.48 1.48 1.50- 1.60 1.55- 1.60 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-431-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.02 3.35 3.38 3.38 Harvested : 3.00 3.32 3.36 3.36 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,670 6,988 6,636 6,636 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 26.8 23.7 37.7 37.7 Production : 199.9 232.4 223.2 223.2 Imports : 15.0 13.2 13.5 13.5 Supply, total : 241.7 269.2 274.4 274.4 Domestic & residual 3/ : 115.0 121.2 127.1 126.9 Exports, total 4/ : 103.1 110.4 121.0 121.0 Rough : 34.4 35.2 36.0 36.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 68.7 75.2 85.0 85.0 Use, total : 218.0 231.6 248.1 247.9 Ending stocks : 23.7 37.7 26.3 26.5 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.8 70.7 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.08 7.33 7.65- 7.95 7.65- 7.95 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 2.57 2.73 2.73 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,451 6,630 6,493 6,493 Beginning stocks : 15.7 10.3 22.7 22.7 Production : 149.0 170.4 177.5 177.5 Supply, total 7/ : 174.5 191.3 211.0 211.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 83.4 84.5 94.4 94.1 Exports 8/ : 80.7 84.1 97.0 97.0 Use, total : 164.2 168.6 191.4 191.1 Ending stocks : 10.3 22.7 19.6 20.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.69 0.75 0.63 0.63 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,407 8,212 7,255 7,255 Beginning stocks : 9.3 12.4 13.8 13.8 Production : 50.9 61.9 45.7 45.7 Supply, total 7/ : 66.2 76.8 62.3 62.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 31.5 36.7 32.8 32.8 Exports 8/ : 22.3 26.3 24.0 24.0 Use, total : 53.9 63.0 56.8 56.8 Ending stocks : 12.4 13.8 5.5 5.2 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0; 2005/06-1.1. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-431-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.4 75.2 72.1 72.1 Harvested : 72.5 74.0 71.4 71.4 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 33.9 42.2 43.3 43.3 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 178 112 256 256 Production : 2,454 3,124 3,086 3,086 Imports : 6 6 4 4 Supply, total : 2,638 3,242 3,346 3,346 Crushings : 1,530 1,696 1,730 1,720 Exports : 887 1,103 950 910 Seed : 92 88 90 91 Residual : 17 99 71 71 Use, total : 2,525 2,986 2,841 2,792 Ending stocks : 112 256 505 555 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.34 5.74 5.10- 5.80 5.20 - 5.80 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,489 1,076 1,699 1,699 Production : 17,081 19,360 20,155 20,040 Imports : 306 26 65 65 Supply, total : 18,875 20,462 21,919 21,804 Domestic : 16,864 17,439 18,100 18,000 Exports : 936 1,324 1,350 1,350 Use, total : 17,800 18,762 19,450 19,350 Ending stocks : 1,076 1,699 2,469 2,454 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 29.97 23.01 20.50- 20.50- : 22.50 22.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 220 211 172 172 Production : 36,325 40,717 40,813 40,613 Imports : 285 147 165 165 Supply, total : 36,830 41,075 41,150 40,950 Domestic : 31,449 33,563 34,300 34,100 Exports : 5,170 7,340 6,600 6,600 Use, total : 36,619 40,903 40,900 40,700 Ending stocks : 211 172 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 256.05 182.89 165.00- 165.00- : 180.00 180.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-431-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :====================== : : : January February ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,670 1,897 1,347 1,347 Production 2/ : 8,649 7,877 7,593 7,589 Beet sugar : 4,692 4,611 4,435 4,458 Cane sugar : 3,957 3,266 3,158 3,131 Florida : 2,154 1,693 1,455 1,428 Hawaii : 251 258 260 260 Louisiana : 1,377 1,157 1,263 1,263 Texas : 175 158 180 180 Imports : 1,754 2,096 2,770 3,090 TRQ 3/ : 1,230 1,404 2,140 2,590 Other program 4/ : 464 500 325 325 Other 5/ : 60 192 305 175 Supply, total : 12,073 11,870 11,710 12,026 : Exports : 288 259 175 175 Deliveries : 9,862 10,215 10,215 10,190 Food : 9,678 10,046 10,050 10,050 Other 6/ : 184 169 165 140 Miscellaneous 7/ : 26 49 0 0 Use, total : 10,176 10,523 10,390 10,365 Ending stocks : 1,897 1,347 1,320 1,661 Stocks to use ratio : 18.6 12.8 12.7 16.0 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2005/06 from processor reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2005/06, shortfall is 115,000 tons. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Includes high-tier and other. 6/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- Metric-Ton Equivalent : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-431-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.48 13.66 14.20 14.20 Harvested : 12.00 13.06 13.70 13.70 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 730 855 831 831 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 5.39 3.51 5.54 5.54 Production : 18.26 23.25 23.72 23.72 Imports : 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 23.69 26.79 29.30 29.30 Domestic use : 6.22 6.69 6.00 5.90 Exports : 13.76 14.41 16.40 16.40 Use, total : 19.98 21.10 22.40 22.30 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.20 0.15 0.00 0.00 Ending stocks : 3.51 5.54 6.90 7.00 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 61.8 41.6 46.9 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Average price for August-December 2005. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2005/06 is 32.0 percent. WASDE-431-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 166.11 554.59 102.14 96.71 588.59 109.38 132.11 United States : 13.37 63.81 1.72 5.52 32.51 31.52 14.87 Total foreign : 152.74 490.78 100.42 91.19 556.09 77.86 117.24 Major exporters 4/ : 27.04 171.06 6.22 57.55 126.72 54.16 23.44 Argentina : 1.53 14.50 0.00 0.08 5.23 9.41 1.40 Australia : 3.14 26.13 0.07 3.23 5.96 18.03 5.36 Canada : 5.72 23.55 0.23 3.44 7.64 15.79 6.08 EU-25 5/ : 16.64 106.88 5.91 50.80 107.90 10.93 10.60 Major importers 6/ : 79.20 149.36 51.78 9.97 210.64 6.80 62.90 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.18 0.20 9.80 1.38 0.51 China : 60.38 86.49 3.75 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.84 17.99 7.95 1.30 26.22 1.00 5.56 N. Africa 8/ : 5.96 16.28 15.48 0.30 30.08 0.18 7.47 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.58 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 9.98 1.32 9.20 0.32 2.03 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.01 0.60 68.26 5.65 6.90 FSU-12 : 16.48 60.91 7.26 17.58 65.87 7.79 10.99 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.03 12.50 35.50 3.11 2.64 Kazakhstan : 3.67 11.00 0.01 2.70 6.80 4.11 3.78 Ukraine : 3.25 3.60 3.36 0.43 9.02 0.07 1.13 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 132.11 626.74 109.82 106.83 609.25 110.83 149.60 United States : 14.87 58.74 1.92 5.14 31.91 28.92 14.70 Total foreign : 117.24 568.00 107.90 101.69 577.34 81.91 134.90 Major exporters 4/ : 23.44 201.23 7.72 65.49 135.84 55.91 40.64 Argentina : 1.40 16.00 0.00 0.08 5.01 11.83 0.55 Australia : 5.36 22.60 0.08 3.70 6.40 14.74 6.89 Canada : 6.08 25.86 0.25 5.01 9.23 14.97 7.99 EU-25 5/ : 10.60 136.77 7.39 56.70 115.20 14.37 25.20 Major importers 6/ : 62.90 154.76 60.59 8.29 213.55 3.35 61.34 Brazil : 0.51 5.84 5.21 0.30 10.20 0.02 1.35 China : 43.29 91.95 6.75 4.00 102.00 1.17 38.82 Select. Mideast 7/ : 5.56 18.16 9.60 1.95 27.86 0.60 4.86 N. Africa 8/ : 7.47 16.62 18.41 0.30 32.63 0.22 9.64 Pakistan : 1.58 19.00 1.42 0.40 19.50 0.05 2.45 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.03 0.00 9.75 0.91 9.35 0.37 2.06 Selected other : India : 6.90 72.06 0.01 0.50 72.75 2.12 4.10 FSU-12 : 10.99 86.53 4.59 20.80 72.70 15.19 14.21 Russia : 2.64 45.40 1.20 13.60 37.40 7.95 3.89 Kazakhstan : 3.78 9.95 0.02 2.70 7.40 2.70 3.64 Ukraine : 1.13 17.50 0.05 2.10 11.70 4.35 2.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-431-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 150.12 616.43 107.50 113.76 621.84 110.29 144.70 February : 149.60 616.17 106.60 113.66 623.81 110.36 141.96 United States : January : 14.70 57.28 2.31 5.44 32.33 27.22 14.74 February : 14.70 57.28 2.31 5.44 32.33 27.22 14.74 Total foreign : January : 135.42 559.15 105.18 108.32 589.51 83.08 129.95 February : 134.90 558.89 104.28 108.22 591.48 83.14 127.22 Major exporters 4/ : January : 40.80 185.74 7.54 69.48 140.50 54.50 39.08 February : 40.64 185.84 7.84 69.48 140.50 54.50 39.32 Argentina Jan : 0.70 12.10 0.01 0.08 5.20 7.00 0.62 Feb : 0.55 12.10 0.01 0.08 5.20 7.00 0.46 Australia Jan : 6.89 24.00 0.08 3.90 6.60 16.50 7.87 Feb : 6.89 24.00 0.08 3.90 6.60 16.50 7.87 Canada Jan : 7.99 26.80 0.25 5.00 9.20 16.50 9.34 Feb : 7.99 26.80 0.25 5.00 9.20 16.50 9.34 EU-25 5/ Jan : 25.21 122.84 7.20 60.50 119.50 14.50 21.25 Feb : 25.20 122.94 7.50 60.50 119.50 14.50 21.65 Major importers 6/ : January : 61.55 158.60 56.50 8.30 214.99 3.45 58.21 February : 61.34 158.60 56.00 8.30 214.99 3.65 57.30 Brazil Jan : 1.43 4.60 5.70 0.80 10.80 0.20 0.73 Feb : 1.35 4.60 5.70 0.80 10.80 0.40 0.45 China Jan : 38.82 97.00 2.00 3.50 101.00 1.00 35.82 Feb : 38.82 97.00 1.50 3.50 101.00 1.00 35.32 Sel. Mideast 7/Jan : 4.86 19.22 10.45 1.90 28.04 0.65 5.84 Feb : 4.86 19.22 10.45 1.90 28.04 0.65 5.84 N. Africa 8/ Jan : 9.64 12.92 18.60 0.30 33.33 0.21 7.62 Feb : 9.64 12.92 18.60 0.30 33.33 0.21 7.62 Pakistan Jan : 2.45 21.00 0.80 0.40 20.30 0.05 3.90 Feb : 2.45 21.00 0.80 0.40 20.30 0.05 3.90 SE Asia 9/ Jan : 2.19 0.00 9.65 0.98 9.45 0.39 2.00 Feb : 2.06 0.00 9.65 0.98 9.45 0.39 1.87 Selected other : India Jan : 4.10 72.00 1.00 0.50 73.00 0.50 3.60 Feb : 4.10 72.00 0.50 0.50 74.10 0.50 2.00 FSU-12 Jan : 14.11 91.96 3.94 23.20 75.64 19.24 15.13 Feb : 14.21 91.70 3.74 23.10 75.54 18.93 15.17 Russia Jan : 3.79 47.60 1.00 14.90 38.40 10.00 3.99 Feb : 3.89 47.60 0.80 14.90 38.40 10.00 3.89 Kazakhstan Jan : 3.64 11.00 0.02 2.70 7.40 3.50 3.76 Feb : 3.64 11.00 0.02 2.70 7.40 3.20 4.06 Ukraine Jan : 2.62 19.00 0.05 3.30 13.30 5.50 2.88 Feb : 2.62 18.70 0.05 3.10 13.10 5.50 2.78 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-431-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 168.76 912.87 100.66 611.31 942.20 103.49 139.42 United States : 30.94 275.10 2.44 155.79 225.96 53.75 28.76 Total foreign : 137.82 637.77 98.22 455.52 716.24 49.74 110.66 Major exporters 4/ : 7.87 70.15 2.44 33.99 46.98 22.94 10.53 Argentina : 1.04 18.60 0.05 5.10 7.36 11.33 1.00 Australia : 1.20 14.86 0.00 5.36 6.60 7.21 2.25 Canada : 3.14 26.33 2.08 19.31 23.81 3.64 4.09 Major importers 5/ : 37.94 195.13 79.03 205.22 274.32 5.50 32.29 EU-25 6/ : 21.50 122.97 8.01 101.94 135.47 4.39 12.63 Japan : 2.40 0.20 19.98 15.61 20.44 0.00 2.15 Mexico : 3.89 30.10 8.85 21.14 37.23 0.01 5.60 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 3.77 25.73 15.74 33.69 40.22 0.35 4.68 Saudi Arabia : 2.64 0.20 8.42 8.65 8.84 0.00 2.43 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.04 15.56 3.92 12.73 18.04 0.75 1.72 South Korea : 1.28 0.30 8.99 6.79 9.16 0.00 1.42 Selected other : China : 66.37 123.95 1.53 99.06 138.65 7.72 45.48 Other Europe : 3.09 18.84 1.34 17.15 20.74 0.36 2.17 FSU-12 : 11.98 55.37 1.46 39.22 56.56 6.09 6.16 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.95 21.52 33.25 2.47 2.93 Ukraine : 2.65 15.60 0.14 10.50 13.80 2.77 1.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 139.42 1008.27 99.80 635.32 969.99 100.95 177.70 United States : 28.76 319.42 2.20 166.18 240.28 51.30 58.80 Total foreign : 110.66 688.85 97.60 469.13 729.72 49.65 118.90 Major exporters 4/ : 10.53 74.21 2.82 35.92 49.28 24.68 13.61 Argentina : 1.00 23.90 0.01 6.60 9.06 14.64 1.21 Australia : 2.25 11.66 0.00 5.66 6.89 4.86 2.16 Canada : 4.09 26.45 2.47 19.15 23.74 2.85 6.42 Major importers 5/ : 32.29 223.59 75.81 211.38 281.28 4.62 45.80 EU-25 6/ : 12.63 150.61 3.69 106.24 139.62 4.01 23.30 Japan : 2.15 0.20 19.77 15.30 20.14 0.00 1.98 Mexico : 5.60 29.56 8.96 22.08 38.23 0.03 5.86 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.68 26.79 20.00 37.13 44.11 0.06 7.30 Saudi Arabia : 2.43 0.20 6.90 6.63 6.81 0.00 2.72 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.72 15.82 3.08 12.77 18.58 0.52 1.52 South Korea : 1.42 0.34 8.76 6.71 9.00 0.00 1.52 Selected other : China : 45.48 137.93 2.06 100.20 141.21 7.62 36.64 Other Europe : 2.17 28.87 0.51 19.44 24.57 2.22 4.76 FSU-12 : 6.16 62.91 1.15 38.02 54.55 8.07 7.60 Russia : 2.93 29.60 0.72 19.00 29.40 1.13 2.72 Ukraine : 1.82 23.00 0.07 11.35 15.20 6.76 2.94 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-431-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 177.14 958.46 97.64 626.14 970.71 99.36 164.90 February : 177.70 958.60 96.99 625.94 970.96 98.62 165.34 United States : January : 58.80 298.74 1.88 159.76 240.70 52.01 66.70 February : 58.80 298.74 1.77 159.76 241.34 52.00 65.97 Total foreign : January : 118.34 659.73 95.76 466.38 730.01 47.34 98.19 February : 118.90 659.87 95.22 466.18 729.62 46.63 99.36 Major exporters 4/ : January : 13.51 66.56 1.88 35.82 49.51 22.80 9.63 February : 13.61 65.13 1.88 36.02 49.65 21.30 9.67 Argentina Jan : 1.21 20.50 0.00 6.31 8.77 12.01 0.92 Feb : 1.21 19.20 0.00 6.51 8.97 10.50 0.93 Australia Jan : 2.16 12.06 0.00 5.14 6.39 6.17 1.65 Feb : 2.16 12.06 0.00 5.14 6.39 6.17 1.65 Canada Jan : 6.34 25.98 1.56 19.96 24.83 3.60 5.44 Feb : 6.42 25.98 1.56 19.96 24.83 3.60 5.53 Major importers 5/ : January : 45.21 200.20 75.84 208.84 279.00 5.68 36.57 February : 45.80 200.69 75.24 207.94 278.10 5.81 37.82 EU-25 6/ Jan : 22.74 131.03 3.64 101.60 134.94 4.80 17.67 Feb : 23.30 131.42 3.64 101.30 134.65 4.80 18.92 Japan Jan : 1.98 0.19 19.48 15.00 19.84 0.00 1.82 Feb : 1.98 0.19 19.48 15.00 19.84 0.00 1.82 Mexico Jan : 5.86 27.48 10.34 22.68 39.10 0.01 4.58 Feb : 5.86 27.48 10.34 22.68 39.10 0.01 4.58 N Afr/M.East 7/Jan : 7.26 24.38 18.42 37.57 44.54 0.55 4.98 Feb : 7.30 24.38 17.92 36.87 43.84 0.68 5.09 Saudi Arabia Jan : 2.72 0.20 7.40 7.43 7.61 0.00 2.71 Feb : 2.72 0.20 7.40 7.43 7.61 0.00 2.72 S.-east Asia 8/Jan : 1.52 16.52 3.26 13.48 19.34 0.33 1.64 Feb : 1.52 16.61 3.16 13.58 19.43 0.33 1.53 South Korea Jan : 1.52 0.33 8.53 6.56 8.85 0.00 1.53 Feb : 1.52 0.33 8.53 6.56 8.85 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China Jan : 36.64 141.60 2.31 101.65 143.80 6.02 30.72 Feb : 36.64 141.60 2.20 101.65 143.80 6.02 30.62 Other Europe Jan : 4.86 24.78 0.82 19.26 24.64 1.96 3.86 Feb : 4.76 25.98 0.67 19.76 25.04 2.65 3.72 FSU-12 Jan : 7.57 55.22 1.10 34.43 50.55 7.86 5.47 Feb : 7.60 55.09 1.20 34.33 50.44 7.84 5.60 Russia Jan : 2.69 27.65 0.65 17.95 28.20 1.20 1.59 Feb : 2.72 27.65 0.75 18.00 28.30 1.20 1.62 Ukraine Jan : 2.94 18.37 0.09 9.10 12.57 6.38 2.45 Feb : 2.94 18.14 0.09 9.05 12.49 6.36 2.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-431-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 125.08 623.04 76.51 441.83 644.43 77.34 103.69 United States : 27.60 256.28 0.36 147.20 211.64 48.26 24.34 Total foreign : 97.48 366.76 76.16 294.63 432.79 29.08 79.36 Major exporters 4/ : 2.97 24.70 0.25 6.88 13.08 11.67 3.18 Argentina : 0.53 15.00 0.04 2.80 4.40 10.94 0.22 South Africa : 2.44 9.70 0.22 4.08 8.68 0.73 2.96 Major importers 5/ : 13.44 82.96 49.64 91.38 130.99 1.20 13.86 Egypt : 0.20 5.74 3.74 8.00 9.50 0.00 0.18 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.88 5.75 36.01 46.81 0.46 3.18 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.78 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 3.24 21.80 5.74 11.20 26.40 0.01 4.37 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.03 15.42 3.89 12.60 17.90 0.73 1.72 South Korea : 1.28 0.07 8.78 6.61 8.72 0.00 1.42 Selected other : Brazil : 6.50 42.00 0.36 30.50 36.30 4.44 8.12 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.03 8.83 11.23 0.37 1.14 China : 64.97 115.83 0.00 97.00 128.40 7.55 44.85 Other Europe : 2.58 15.13 0.91 14.30 16.62 0.34 1.66 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.53 0.64 9.54 11.04 1.31 1.35 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 103.69 708.38 75.58 466.33 680.64 77.30 131.43 United States : 24.34 299.91 0.28 156.52 224.75 46.08 53.70 Total foreign : 79.36 408.46 75.30 309.81 455.88 31.22 77.74 Major exporters 4/ : 3.18 31.22 0.16 7.80 14.15 16.30 4.10 Argentina : 0.22 19.50 0.01 3.50 5.20 14.00 0.53 South Africa : 2.96 11.72 0.15 4.30 8.95 2.30 3.57 Major importers 5/ : 13.86 97.51 46.96 99.12 139.33 0.71 18.30 Egypt : 0.18 5.78 5.40 9.00 10.60 0.00 0.76 EU-25 6/ : 3.18 53.35 2.95 41.70 52.50 0.16 6.82 Japan : 1.34 0.00 16.48 12.20 16.70 0.00 1.12 Mexico : 4.37 22.63 5.92 12.60 27.90 0.03 5.00 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.72 15.62 3.07 12.60 18.40 0.52 1.49 South Korea : 1.42 0.08 8.64 6.62 8.62 0.00 1.52 Selected other : Brazil : 8.12 35.00 0.70 32.10 38.50 0.70 4.62 Canada : 1.14 8.84 2.37 7.91 10.31 0.24 1.80 China : 44.85 130.29 0.00 98.50 131.50 7.59 36.06 Other Europe : 1.66 23.44 0.15 15.96 19.55 1.63 4.07 FSU-12 : 1.35 15.35 0.52 10.94 12.64 2.40 2.18 Russia : 0.16 3.50 0.23 3.00 3.60 0.04 0.24 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-431-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 130.96 683.51 74.03 465.60 686.21 73.54 128.26 February : 131.43 683.76 73.28 465.85 687.03 72.73 128.16 United States : January : 53.70 282.26 0.25 152.41 227.60 46.99 61.62 February : 53.70 282.26 0.25 152.41 228.23 46.99 60.99 Total foreign : January : 77.27 401.25 73.78 313.20 458.61 26.55 66.64 February : 77.74 401.50 73.03 313.45 458.80 25.74 67.17 Major exporters 4/ : January : 4.10 24.30 0.20 7.90 14.30 12.50 1.80 February : 4.10 23.00 0.20 8.10 14.50 11.00 1.80 Argentina Jan : 0.53 16.80 0.00 3.70 5.40 11.50 0.43 Feb : 0.53 15.50 0.00 3.90 5.60 10.00 0.43 South Africa Jan : 3.57 7.50 0.20 4.20 8.90 1.00 1.37 Feb : 3.57 7.50 0.20 4.20 8.90 1.00 1.37 Major importers 5/ : January : 17.83 90.35 47.75 98.80 139.12 0.90 15.90 February : 18.30 90.77 47.15 98.40 138.72 0.90 16.60 Egypt Jan : 0.76 5.95 5.30 9.60 11.30 0.00 0.71 Feb : 0.76 5.95 4.80 9.10 10.80 0.00 0.71 EU-25 6/ Jan : 6.35 47.47 3.00 40.00 50.60 0.60 5.62 Feb : 6.82 47.79 3.00 40.00 50.60 0.60 6.41 Japan Jan : 1.12 0.00 16.50 12.10 16.60 0.00 1.03 Feb : 1.12 0.00 16.50 12.10 16.60 0.00 1.03 Mexico Jan : 5.00 20.50 6.70 12.90 28.40 0.01 3.79 Feb : 5.00 20.50 6.70 12.90 28.40 0.01 3.79 S.-east Asia 7/Jan : 1.49 16.32 3.25 13.30 19.15 0.30 1.61 Feb : 1.49 16.42 3.15 13.40 19.25 0.30 1.51 South Korea Jan : 1.52 0.06 8.40 6.50 8.45 0.00 1.53 Feb : 1.52 0.06 8.40 6.50 8.45 0.00 1.53 Selected other : Brazil Jan : 4.62 42.50 0.60 33.50 40.00 1.70 6.02 Feb : 4.62 42.50 0.60 33.50 40.00 1.70 6.02 Canada Jan : 1.72 9.47 1.50 8.50 11.00 0.15 1.54 Feb : 1.80 9.47 1.50 8.50 11.00 0.15 1.62 China Jan : 36.06 134.00 0.20 100.00 134.00 6.00 30.26 Feb : 36.06 134.00 0.10 100.00 134.00 6.00 30.16 Other Europe Jan : 4.17 20.12 0.46 16.16 19.95 1.56 3.24 Feb : 4.07 21.32 0.31 16.66 20.35 2.25 3.10 FSU-12 Jan : 2.15 13.15 0.41 9.88 11.53 2.33 1.86 Feb : 2.18 13.08 0.51 9.94 11.63 2.33 1.82 Russia Jan : 0.22 3.20 0.20 2.90 3.45 0.00 0.17 Feb : 0.24 3.20 0.30 2.95 3.55 0.00 0.19 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-431-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 3/ : 110.32 391.38 24.86 415.68 27.41 86.01 United States : 0.83 6.42 0.48 3.66 3.31 0.76 Total foreign : 109.49 384.96 24.38 412.03 24.10 85.25 Major exporters 4/ : 18.41 133.22 0.30 115.55 19.48 16.90 India : 11.00 88.28 0.00 85.38 3.10 10.80 Pakistan : 0.05 4.85 0.00 2.70 1.95 0.24 Thailand : 3.30 18.01 0.00 9.47 10.14 1.71 Vietnam : 4.07 22.08 0.30 18.00 4.30 4.15 Major importers 5/ : 12.34 59.35 9.37 68.14 0.37 12.56 Brazil : 0.59 8.71 0.81 8.69 0.08 1.34 EU-25 6/ : 0.96 1.73 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.97 Indonesia : 4.34 35.02 0.65 36.00 0.00 4.02 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.45 4.00 0.00 1.00 Philippines : 3.81 9.20 1.29 10.25 0.00 4.05 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.21 2.99 5.15 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.13 1.63 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.07 0.35 0.45 0.00 0.11 China : 67.22 112.46 1.12 135.00 0.88 44.93 Egypt : 0.87 3.90 0.00 3.22 0.83 0.72 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.54 0.73 0.00 0.18 South Korea : 1.02 4.45 0.19 4.61 0.21 0.85 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 3/ : 86.01 402.15 26.17 415.27 27.73 72.90 United States : 0.76 7.46 0.42 3.89 3.54 1.21 Total foreign : 85.25 394.70 25.75 411.38 24.19 71.69 Major exporters 4/ : 16.90 130.03 0.30 113.74 19.40 14.08 India : 10.80 85.31 0.00 83.11 4.50 8.50 Pakistan : 0.24 5.02 0.00 2.66 2.45 0.16 Thailand : 1.71 17.07 0.00 9.48 7.27 2.02 Vietnam : 4.15 22.63 0.30 18.50 5.17 3.40 Major importers 5/ : 12.56 59.60 9.26 68.67 0.59 12.15 Brazil : 1.34 8.98 0.55 9.00 0.30 1.57 EU-25 6/ : 0.97 1.86 1.00 2.53 0.18 1.13 Indonesia : 4.02 34.25 0.50 35.85 0.05 2.87 Nigeria : 1.00 2.30 1.37 4.25 0.00 0.42 Philippines : 4.05 9.44 1.50 10.40 0.00 4.59 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.27 3.25 5.07 0.06 1.38 Selected other : Burma : 1.63 9.57 0.00 10.30 0.18 0.72 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.11 0.07 0.42 0.48 0.00 0.12 China : 44.93 125.36 0.61 135.10 0.66 35.14 Egypt : 0.72 4.16 0.00 3.25 1.10 0.53 Japan : 1.70 7.94 0.78 8.30 0.20 1.92 Mexico : 0.18 0.20 0.55 0.80 0.00 0.13 South Korea : 0.85 5.00 0.19 4.86 0.27 0.91 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-431-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 73.07 406.88 25.58 413.84 26.19 66.10 February : 72.90 408.99 25.94 415.24 26.69 66.64 United States : January : 1.21 7.09 0.43 4.05 3.84 0.84 February : 1.21 7.09 0.43 4.04 3.84 0.84 Total foreign : January : 71.86 399.79 25.16 409.79 22.35 65.27 February : 71.69 401.90 25.51 411.20 22.85 65.80 Major exporters 4/ : January : 14.18 130.80 0.10 112.16 17.82 15.10 February : 14.08 132.90 0.10 113.16 18.32 15.60 India Jan : 8.50 85.00 0.00 81.00 3.50 9.00 Feb : 8.50 87.00 0.00 82.00 3.50 10.00 Pakistan Jan : 0.16 5.40 0.00 2.66 2.82 0.07 Feb : 0.16 5.50 0.00 2.66 2.82 0.17 Thailand Jan : 2.05 17.90 0.00 9.49 7.00 3.46 Feb : 2.02 17.90 0.00 9.49 7.00 3.43 Vietnam Jan : 3.48 22.50 0.10 19.00 4.50 2.58 Feb : 3.40 22.50 0.10 19.00 5.00 2.00 Major importers 5/ : January : 12.20 59.43 10.54 69.27 0.36 12.54 February : 12.15 59.43 10.84 69.27 0.36 12.79 Brazil Jan : 1.57 7.80 0.70 9.21 0.13 0.73 Feb : 1.57 7.80 0.70 9.21 0.13 0.73 EU-25 6/ Jan : 1.13 1.80 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.18 Feb : 1.13 1.80 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.18 Indonesia Jan : 2.92 34.90 0.80 35.60 0.00 3.02 Feb : 2.87 34.90 1.00 35.60 0.00 3.17 Nigeria Jan : 0.42 2.70 1.70 4.35 0.00 0.47 Feb : 0.42 2.70 1.80 4.35 0.00 0.57 Philippines Jan : 4.59 9.50 1.90 10.60 0.00 5.39 Feb : 4.59 9.50 1.90 10.60 0.00 5.39 Sel. Mideast 7/Jan : 1.38 2.27 3.40 5.37 0.06 1.62 Feb : 1.38 2.27 3.40 5.37 0.06 1.62 Selected other : Burma Jan : 0.72 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.15 0.61 Feb : 0.72 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.15 0.61 C. Am & Car. 8/Jan : 0.11 0.07 0.40 0.47 0.00 0.10 Feb : 0.12 0.07 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.10 China Jan : 35.09 127.40 0.60 135.20 0.70 27.19 Feb : 35.14 127.40 0.60 135.20 0.70 27.24 Egypt Jan : 0.53 4.20 0.00 3.30 1.00 0.43 Feb : 0.53 4.20 0.00 3.30 1.00 0.43 Japan Jan : 1.92 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.17 Feb : 1.92 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.17 Mexico Jan : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.82 0.00 0.10 Feb : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.82 0.00 0.10 South Korea Jan : 0.97 4.77 0.40 4.66 0.13 1.35 Feb : 0.91 4.77 0.40 4.85 0.13 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-431-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World : 44.24 95.26 33.90 98.08 33.25 -0.79 42.87 United States : 5.39 18.26 0.05 6.22 13.76 0.20 3.51 Total foreign : 38.85 77.01 33.86 91.86 19.49 -0.99 39.36 Major exporters 4/ : 11.55 30.69 3.18 18.11 14.93 -0.16 12.54 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.78 6.74 0.01 1.67 5.14 0.00 1.71 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.56 4.39 3/ 0.20 4.44 0.00 1.30 S. Hemis. 7/ : 4.85 9.36 0.95 5.02 3.90 -0.20 6.44 Australia : 1.30 1.70 3/ 0.08 2.16 -0.12 0.89 Brazil : 2.88 6.02 0.55 3.95 0.96 -0.10 4.63 Major importers : 25.10 42.87 26.18 67.23 3.14 -0.84 24.62 India : 3.59 14.00 0.80 13.50 0.70 0.00 4.19 Mexico : 1.07 0.36 1.86 2.00 0.11 0.03 1.14 China : 15.00 22.30 8.83 32.00 0.17 -1.00 14.96 EU-25 8/ : 1.53 1.96 3.16 3.90 1.73 0.06 0.96 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.37 4.10 2.37 6.20 0.36 0.00 1.28 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.33 0.15 7.68 8.13 0.06 0.08 1.89 Indonesia : 0.40 0.03 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.56 0.06 1.68 1.85 0.00 0.03 0.42 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World : 42.87 120.38 33.13 108.65 34.70 -1.08 54.12 United States : 3.51 23.25 0.03 6.69 14.41 0.15 5.54 Total foreign : 39.36 97.13 33.10 101.95 20.29 -1.23 48.58 Major exporters 4/ : 12.54 37.97 2.55 19.45 16.23 -0.16 17.54 Pakistan : 2.03 11.30 1.70 10.75 0.38 0.03 3.88 Central Asia 5/ : 1.71 8.01 3/ 1.51 5.90 0.00 2.32 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.30 4.89 3/ 0.20 4.08 0.00 1.90 S. Hemis. 7/ : 6.44 10.32 0.45 5.26 4.20 -0.20 7.94 Australia : 0.89 3.00 3/ 0.07 2.00 -0.12 1.95 Brazil : 4.63 5.90 0.21 4.20 1.56 -0.10 5.08 Major importers : 24.62 55.21 26.09 76.01 2.71 -1.09 28.29 India : 4.19 19.00 0.80 14.80 0.70 0.00 8.49 Mexico : 1.14 0.63 1.81 2.10 0.14 0.03 1.32 China : 14.96 29.00 6.39 38.50 0.03 -1.25 13.06 EU-25 8/ : 0.96 2.30 3.06 3.47 1.64 0.06 1.16 Russia : 0.20 3/ 1.45 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.28 4.15 3.41 7.00 0.15 0.00 1.69 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.89 0.14 9.18 8.72 0.06 0.08 2.35 Indonesia : 0.37 0.03 2.40 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.48 Thailand : 0.42 0.06 2.28 2.15 0.00 0.03 0.58 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-431-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World : January : 51.62 112.36 42.00 115.24 41.44 -1.48 50.77 February : 54.12 113.75 42.41 116.79 41.85 -1.29 52.93 United States : January : 5.54 23.72 0.04 6.00 16.40 0.00 6.90 February : 5.54 23.72 0.04 5.90 16.40 0.00 7.00 Total foreign : January : 46.08 88.64 41.96 109.24 25.04 -1.48 43.87 February : 48.58 90.03 42.37 110.89 25.45 -1.29 45.93 Major exporters 4/ : January : 17.54 35.00 2.75 20.33 19.22 -0.16 15.89 February : 17.54 34.78 2.65 20.33 19.45 -0.16 15.34 Pakistan Jan : 3.88 9.75 1.70 11.75 0.35 0.03 3.21 Feb : 3.88 9.75 1.70 11.75 0.35 0.03 3.21 Central Asia 5/Jan : 2.32 8.36 3/ 1.56 6.56 0.00 2.57 Feb : 2.32 8.39 3/ 1.56 6.58 0.00 2.57 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jan : 1.90 4.96 3/ 0.19 4.72 0.00 1.96 Feb : 1.90 4.96 3/ 0.19 4.87 0.00 1.81 S. Hemis 7/ Jan : 7.94 8.81 0.47 5.05 5.68 -0.20 6.69 Feb : 7.94 8.56 0.42 5.05 5.78 -0.20 6.29 Australia Jan : 1.95 2.60 3/ 0.06 2.95 -0.12 1.67 Feb : 1.95 2.60 3/ 0.06 3.05 -0.12 1.57 Brazil Jan : 5.08 4.75 0.23 4.00 2.00 -0.10 4.16 Feb : 5.08 4.50 0.20 4.00 2.00 -0.10 3.88 Major importers Jan : 25.79 49.90 34.96 82.39 4.15 -1.33 25.44 Feb : 28.29 51.61 35.40 84.06 4.31 -1.14 28.07 India Jan : 8.49 18.60 0.80 17.00 1.80 0.00 9.09 Feb : 8.49 18.60 0.80 16.75 1.80 0.00 9.34 Mexico Jan : 1.32 0.70 1.40 2.00 0.20 0.03 1.19 Feb : 1.32 0.64 1.40 2.00 0.18 0.03 1.15 China Jan : 10.56 24.50 16.50 43.00 0.03 -1.50 10.04 Feb : 13.06 26.20 17.00 45.00 0.03 -1.30 12.54 EU-25 8/ Jan : 1.16 2.40 2.67 3.09 1.97 0.06 1.11 Feb : 1.16 2.48 2.68 3.09 2.08 0.06 1.08 Russia Jan : 0.22 3/ 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.22 Feb : 0.22 3/ 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Jan : 1.69 3.55 3.45 7.05 0.10 0.00 1.54 Feb : 1.69 3.55 3.50 7.05 0.15 0.00 1.54 Sel. Asia 9/ Jan : 2.35 0.15 8.65 8.75 0.06 0.09 2.26 Feb : 2.35 0.15 8.53 8.68 0.08 0.08 2.20 Indonesia Jan : 0.48 0.03 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Feb : 0.48 0.03 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand Jan : 0.58 0.05 2.15 2.18 0.00 0.03 0.58 Feb : 0.58 0.05 2.05 2.13 0.00 0.03 0.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and estimated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-431-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 40.50 186.75 54.25 163.63 189.96 55.86 35.68 United States : 4.85 66.78 0.15 41.63 44.60 24.13 3.06 Total foreign : 35.64 119.97 54.10 122.00 145.36 31.73 32.62 Major exporters 3/ : 28.59 87.91 0.88 55.35 59.92 29.30 28.16 Argentina : 12.47 33.00 0.54 25.04 26.62 6.71 12.68 Brazil : 16.03 51.00 0.33 29.32 32.15 19.82 15.39 Major importers 4/ : 6.05 17.43 43.57 49.00 63.24 0.34 3.46 China : 4.47 15.39 16.93 25.44 34.38 0.32 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.63 14.64 14.13 15.46 0.01 0.74 Japan : 0.31 0.23 4.69 3.54 4.93 0.00 0.30 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 3.80 3.89 3.93 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 35.68 215.34 64.65 176.01 205.65 65.15 44.87 United States : 3.06 85.01 0.15 46.16 51.25 30.01 6.96 Total foreign : 32.62 130.32 64.50 129.85 154.39 35.14 37.91 Major exporters 3/ : 28.16 95.80 1.24 57.28 62.06 32.65 30.48 Argentina : 12.68 39.00 0.69 27.31 28.93 9.51 13.92 Brazil : 15.39 53.00 0.53 28.97 31.91 20.54 16.48 Major importers 4/ : 3.46 19.54 52.68 54.12 69.19 0.42 6.07 China : 2.10 17.40 25.80 30.36 40.21 0.39 4.70 EU-25 : 0.74 0.79 15.40 14.73 16.13 0.01 0.79 Japan : 0.30 0.17 4.30 3.15 4.50 0.00 0.26 Mexico : 0.04 0.13 3.64 3.73 3.77 0.00 0.04 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 44.90 223.02 66.81 184.77 214.75 66.82 53.15 February : 44.87 222.76 66.28 183.84 213.73 66.35 53.83 United States : January : 6.96 84.00 0.11 47.08 51.47 25.86 13.74 February : 6.96 84.00 0.11 46.81 51.21 24.77 15.09 Total foreign : January : 37.94 139.02 66.70 137.69 163.28 40.97 39.41 February : 37.91 138.76 66.17 137.03 162.52 41.58 38.73 Major exporters 3/ : January : 30.48 103.80 1.09 59.54 64.33 38.42 32.64 February : 30.48 103.50 1.09 59.39 64.18 38.92 31.98 Argentina Jan : 13.92 40.50 0.65 28.45 30.20 10.00 14.87 Feb : 13.92 40.50 0.65 28.45 30.20 10.00 14.87 Brazil Jan : 16.48 58.50 0.43 29.49 32.31 25.42 17.68 Feb : 16.48 58.50 0.43 29.49 32.31 26.07 17.02 Major importers 4/ : January : 6.07 19.28 54.23 58.04 73.65 0.39 5.54 February : 6.07 19.28 54.05 57.82 73.46 0.41 5.54 China Jan : 4.70 17.00 27.50 34.55 44.75 0.35 4.10 Feb : 4.70 17.00 27.50 34.51 44.73 0.37 4.10 EU-25 Jan : 0.79 0.84 15.00 14.40 15.81 0.01 0.80 Feb : 0.79 0.84 14.80 14.20 15.61 0.01 0.80 Japan Jan : 0.26 0.23 4.30 3.10 4.49 0.00 0.30 Feb : 0.26 0.23 4.30 3.10 4.49 0.00 0.30 Mexico Jan : 0.04 0.13 3.70 3.79 3.83 0.00 0.04 Feb : 0.04 0.13 3.73 3.82 3.85 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-431-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 5.31 128.31 44.80 128.31 45.41 4.70 United States : 0.20 32.95 0.26 28.53 4.69 0.19 Total foreign : 5.11 95.36 44.54 99.78 40.72 4.51 Major exporters 3/ : 2.04 46.54 0.23 9.44 37.02 2.35 Argentina : 0.35 19.76 0.00 0.62 18.95 0.54 Brazil : 1.65 22.36 0.23 7.70 14.76 1.78 India : 0.05 4.42 0.00 1.12 3.31 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 33.02 26.92 58.91 1.10 1.13 EU-25 : 0.87 11.10 21.91 32.64 0.39 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.02 19.54 0.67 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.70 138.35 45.61 137.41 46.15 5.09 United States : 0.19 36.94 0.13 30.45 6.66 0.16 Total foreign : 4.51 101.41 45.47 106.96 39.49 4.94 Major exporters 3/ : 2.35 47.52 0.19 11.06 36.42 2.58 Argentina : 0.54 21.34 0.00 0.85 19.88 1.15 Brazil : 1.78 22.42 0.19 8.81 14.24 1.33 India : 0.04 3.77 0.00 1.40 2.30 0.10 Major importers 4/ : 1.13 37.48 27.59 63.99 1.07 1.14 EU-25 : 0.85 11.58 22.00 33.21 0.36 0.86 China : 0.00 24.03 0.07 23.43 0.66 0.00 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 5.09 145.18 47.76 144.84 48.02 5.17 February : 5.09 144.49 47.25 143.77 47.89 5.17 United States : January : 0.16 37.03 0.15 31.12 5.99 0.23 February : 0.16 36.84 0.15 30.94 5.99 0.23 Total foreign : January : 4.94 108.16 47.61 113.72 42.04 4.94 February : 4.94 107.65 47.10 112.84 41.90 4.95 Major exporters 3/ : January : 2.58 49.45 0.28 11.51 38.24 2.56 February : 2.58 49.45 0.28 11.51 38.24 2.56 Argentina Jan : 1.15 22.33 0.00 0.90 21.65 0.93 Feb : 1.15 22.33 0.00 0.90 21.65 0.93 Brazil Jan : 1.33 23.17 0.28 9.04 14.19 1.55 Feb : 1.33 23.17 0.28 9.04 14.19 1.55 India Jan : 0.10 3.95 0.00 1.57 2.40 0.09 Feb : 0.10 3.95 0.00 1.57 2.40 0.09 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.14 40.83 28.66 68.29 1.19 1.15 February : 1.14 40.62 28.11 67.58 1.14 1.15 EU-25 Jan : 0.86 11.33 22.75 33.68 0.39 0.86 Feb : 0.86 11.15 22.20 32.95 0.39 0.86 China Jan : 0.00 27.50 0.20 26.95 0.75 0.00 Feb : 0.00 27.47 0.23 27.00 0.70 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-431-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 2.39 29.85 8.27 29.76 8.81 1.94 United States : 0.68 7.75 0.14 7.65 0.43 0.49 Total foreign : 1.72 22.10 8.14 22.11 8.39 1.46 Major exporters 3/ : 0.78 12.64 0.10 5.28 7.53 0.71 Argentina : 0.13 4.51 0.00 0.27 4.24 0.14 Brazil : 0.42 5.59 0.03 2.95 2.72 0.37 EU-25 : 0.23 2.54 0.07 2.06 0.57 0.21 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.57 3.55 9.02 0.03 0.46 China : 0.25 4.54 2.75 7.17 0.02 0.34 India : 0.13 1.02 0.76 1.78 0.02 0.11 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.94 32.43 8.94 32.04 9.09 2.19 United States : 0.49 8.78 0.01 7.91 0.60 0.77 Total foreign : 1.46 23.65 8.93 24.13 8.49 1.42 Major exporters 3/ : 0.71 13.25 0.16 5.67 7.66 0.80 Argentina : 0.14 5.05 0.00 0.33 4.72 0.14 Brazil : 0.37 5.56 0.00 3.08 2.41 0.44 EU-25 : 0.21 2.64 0.16 2.26 0.52 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.46 6.30 3.82 10.13 0.05 0.40 China : 0.34 5.42 1.74 7.21 0.04 0.25 India : 0.11 0.87 2.03 2.85 0.01 0.15 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 2.09 34.15 9.76 33.79 9.81 2.40 February : 2.19 34.00 9.44 33.56 9.57 2.49 United States : January : 0.77 9.14 0.03 8.21 0.61 1.12 February : 0.77 9.09 0.03 8.17 0.61 1.11 Total foreign : January : 1.32 25.00 9.73 25.58 9.19 1.28 February : 1.42 24.91 9.41 25.40 8.96 1.38 Major exporters 3/ : January : 0.73 13.53 0.26 5.61 8.23 0.68 February : 0.80 13.49 0.26 5.74 8.04 0.77 Argentina Jan : 0.07 5.29 0.00 0.13 5.19 0.04 Feb : 0.14 5.29 0.00 0.30 5.00 0.14 Brazil Jan : 0.44 5.65 0.01 3.10 2.58 0.43 Feb : 0.44 5.65 0.01 3.10 2.58 0.43 EU-25 Jan : 0.22 2.58 0.25 2.38 0.47 0.21 Feb : 0.22 2.55 0.25 2.34 0.47 0.21 Major importers 4/ : January : 0.37 7.14 4.28 11.35 0.06 0.38 February : 0.40 7.14 4.18 11.28 0.06 0.38 China Jan : 0.22 6.21 2.30 8.45 0.05 0.23 Feb : 0.25 6.21 2.20 8.37 0.05 0.23 India Jan : 0.15 0.91 1.90 2.80 0.01 0.15 Feb : 0.15 0.91 1.90 2.80 0.01 0.15 Pakistan Jan : 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.01 Feb : 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-431-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2004 : Annual : 24548 20509 45419 34063 5454 40022 85441 7443 170.8 : 2005 : I : 5727 5136 10951 8571 1320 10013 20964 1855 43.2 II : 6192 5022 11299 8941 1393 10471 21770 1857 45.7 III : 6566 4999 11649 8931 1375 10437 22086 1878 44.0 IV : 6209 5525 11821 8904 1405 10432 22253 1919 43.6 Annual : Jan Est : 24695 20682 45720 35292 5513 41321 87041 7510 176.6 Feb Est : 24694 20682 45720 35346 5493 41353 87073 7509 176.5 : 2006 : I*: 6050 5240 11381 8825 1335 10285 21666 1870 45.0 II*: 6725 5100 11919 9125 1405 10660 22579 1905 46.7 III*: 6825 5250 12166 9100 1410 10645 22811 1920 44.8 IV*: 6350 5625 12072 9050 1425 10610 22682 1950 44.9 Annual : Jan Proj : 25925 21185 47486 36325 5575 42425 89911 7645 181.3 Feb Proj : 25950 21215 47538 36100 5575 42200 89738 7645 181.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2004 : Annual : 84.75 52.51 74.1 69.7 82.2 16.05 : 2005 : I : 89.09 51.92 71.9 65.9 64.5 15.67 II : 87.96 52.09 72.6 67.7 55.9 14.83 III : 81.79 50.51 72.1 76.5 66.6 14.97 IV : 90.27 45.67 66.7 83.6 75.0 15.13 Annual : Jan Est : 87.28 50.05 70.8 73.4 65.5 15.14 Feb Est : 87.28 50.05 70.8 73.4 65.5 15.15 : 2006 : I*: 89-91 42-44 64-66 66-68 69-71 13.90-14.20 II*: 84-90 45-47 64-68 68-72 65-69 12.70-13.30 III*: 78-84 43-47 66-72 72-78 67-73 12.60-13.50 IV*: 80-86 38-42 65-71 75-81 72-78 13.20-14.20 Annual : Jan Proj : 81-87 44-47 66-71 70-75 68-73 13.40-14.20 Feb Proj : 83-88 42-45 65-69 70-75 68-73 13.10-13.80 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-431-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2004 : 518 24650 3679 28847 460 637 27750 66.1 2005 Est. Jan : 637 24797 3567 29001 644 600 27757 65.4 Feb : 637 24796 3567 29000 669 570 27761 65.5 2006 Proj. Jan : 600 26027 3540 30167 975 575 28617 66.8 Feb : 570 26052 3500 30122 905 575 28642 66.9 : PORK : 2004 : 532 20529 1099 22160 2181 543 19437 51.3 2005 Est. Jan : 543 20702 1002 22247 2658 535 19054 49.8 Feb : 543 20702 1002 22247 2658 492 19097 49.9 2006 Proj. Jan : 535 21205 1000 22740 2755 545 19440 50.3 Feb : 492 21235 1000 22727 2755 515 19457 50.4 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2004 : 1059 45555 4959 51573 2650 1187 47735 119.0 2005 Est. Jan : 1187 45855 4748 51790 3311 1149 47330 116.8 Feb : 1187 45855 4746 51788 3337 1077 47374 116.9 2006 Proj. Jan : 1149 47621 4715 53485 3738 1136 48611 118.8 Feb : 1077 47673 4684 53434 3670 1106 48658 118.9 : BROILERS : 2004 : 608 33699 27 34334 4784 713 28837 84.3 2005 Est. Jan : 713 34915 34 35662 5211 850 29601 85.6 Feb : 713 34968 34 35715 5211 918 29586 85.6 2006 Proj. Jan : 850 35936 36 36822 5405 750 30667 87.9 Feb : 918 35714 36 36668 5405 850 30413 87.2 : TURKEYS : 2004 : 354 5383 5 5741 442 288 5010 17.0 2005 Est. Jan : 288 5441 8 5738 580 200 4958 16.7 Feb : 288 5422 8 5718 570 202 4946 16.7 2006 Proj. Jan : 200 5502 4 5706 600 250 4856 16.2 Feb : 202 5502 4 5708 600 250 4858 16.2 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2004 : 966 39585 33 40584 5440 1005 34139 102.3 2005 Est. Jan : 1005 40871 43 41918 5918 1053 34948 103.7 Feb : 1005 40902 43 41950 5908 1122 34920 103.6 2006 Proj. Jan : 1053 41963 44 43060 6145 1004 35911 105.4 Feb : 1122 41740 44 42906 6145 1103 35658 104.7 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2004 : 2025 85140 4992 92157 8090 2192 81875 221.3 2005 Est. Jan : 2192 86726 4791 93709 9229 2202 82278 220.4 Feb : 2192 86757 4789 93738 9245 2199 82294 220.5 2006 Proj. Jan : 2202 89584 4759 96545 9883 2140 84522 224.2 Feb : 2199 89413 4728 96340 9815 2209 84316 223.6 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-431-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Estimated : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.3 13.7 14.5 14.5 14.0 16.0 Production : 7297.0 7443.0 7509.7 7508.7 7645.0 7645.0 Imports : 13.3 12.7 8.7 8.3 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 7320.6 7469.4 7532.9 7531.5 7667.0 7669.0 : Use : Exports : 146.2 167.5 200.1 209.6 200.0 200.0 Hatching use : 959.4 987.2 998.4 996.1 1015.0 1015.0 Ending stocks : 13.7 14.5 14.0 16.0 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6201.3 6300.2 6320.4 6309.8 6438.0 6440.0 Per capita (number) : 255.7 257.2 255.5 255.0 257.8 257.9 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Estimated : 2006 Projected Commodity : : :-----------------:----------------- : 2003 : 2004 : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== : Billion pounds Milk : Production : 170.4 170.8 176.6 176.5 181.3 181.4 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 : Fat Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 9.9 8.3 7.2 7.2 7.6 7.7 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 175.5 175.4 180.2 180.4 Imports : 5.0 5.3 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.7 Total cml. supply : 184.2 183.3 187.3 187.2 192.6 192.8 : Fat Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.3 7.2 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.5 CCC net removals 1/ : 1.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Commercial use 2/ : 174.7 176.2 179.8 179.5 185.1 185.3 : Skim-solids Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.5 8.7 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 175.5 175.4 180.2 180.4 Imports : 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.6 Total cml. supply : 182.8 183.0 188.3 188.1 193.5 193.6 : Skim-solids Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.5 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.3 8.3 CCC net removals 1/ : 8.1 1.3 -1.0 -1.0 0.6 0.9 Commercial use 2/ : 166.2 173.5 180.8 180.4 184.5 184.5 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 1/: Butter : 29 -7 0 0 0 0 Cheese : 41 6 -2 -2 0 0 Nonfat dry milk : 664 105 -80 -80 55 75 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 2/ Includes commercial exports. WASDE-431-32 U.S. Dairy Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Estimated : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== : Dollars per pound : Product Prices 1/ : Cheese : 1.3031 1.6431 1.4875 1.4875 1.295- 1.270- : 1.375 1.340 : Butter : 1.1194 1.8239 1.5405 1.5405 1.295- 1.260- : 1.405 1.360 : Nonfat dry milk : 0.8090 0.8405 0.9409 0.9409 0.890- 0.875- : 0.950 0.935 : Dry whey : 0.1667 0.2319 0.2782 0.2782 0.260- 0.270- : 0.290 0.300 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices 2/ : Class III : 11.42 15.39 14.05 14.05 12.05- 11.85- : 12.85 12.55 : Class IV : 10.00 13.20 12.87 12.87 11.45- 11.20- : 12.35 12.00 : All milk 3/ : 12.52 16.05 15.14 15.15 13.40- 13.10- : 14.20 13.80 : =============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found at http://www.ams.usda.gov/dyfmos/mib/fedordprc_dscrp.htm. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-431-33 Note: Tables on pages 33-35 present a 24-year record of the differences between the February projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the February projection and the final estimate have averaged 2.2 million tons (0.4%) ranging from -7.3 to 6.8 million tons. The February projection has been below the estimate 17 times and above 7 times. Reliability of February Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.4 2.2 -7.3 6.8 17 7 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.1 11 6 Foreign : 0.5 2.3 -7.3 6.8 17 7 Exports : World : 2.8 3.2 -10.9 5.0 16 8 U.S. : 3.3 1.0 -1.4 3.0 11 13 Foreign : 3.8 3.1 -9.5 4.1 19 5 Domestic use : World : 0.8 4.4 -9.7 9.1 12 12 U.S. : 3.1 1.0 -2.4 2.4 10 14 Foreign : 0.8 4.0 -8.2 8.5 12 12 Ending stocks : World : 3.4 4.4 -11.4 7.8 15 9 U.S. : 7.2 1.4 -4.4 3.2 15 9 Foreign : 3.9 3.8 -10.4 9.1 14 10 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.9 7.5 -19.8 7.3 18 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 12 6 Foreign : 1.3 7.5 -19.8 7.3 16 7 Exports : World : 3.6 3.8 -10.4 13.8 18 6 U.S. : 7.5 3.8 -8.7 12.2 11 13 Foreign : 6.5 3.5 -12.6 7.2 16 8 Domestic use : World : 0.9 7.7 -16.2 28.9 12 12 U.S. : 2.4 4.3 -17.3 11.5 11 13 Foreign : 1.0 6.6 -12.5 22.2 15 9 Ending stocks : World : 7.8 10.9 -29.9 16.4 19 5 U.S. : 8.3 4.8 -16.9 18.5 14 10 Foreign : 9.7 7.9 -28.2 11.2 19 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.3 4.3 -14.0 1.9 17 7 U.S. : 1.1 0.1 -0.3 0.2 9 4 Foreign : 1.3 4.2 -14.0 1.8 17 7 Exports : World : 7.1 1.3 -5.2 1.3 20 4 U.S. : 6.3 0.2 -0.6 0.2 14 8 Foreign : 7.9 1.3 -5.0 1.2 19 5 Domestic use : World : 1.0 3.5 -12.8 2.3 17 7 U.S. : 5.5 0.2 -0.4 0.4 10 14 Foreign : 1.0 3.5 -13.0 2.5 17 7 Ending stocks : World : 6.7 3.1 -13.6 4.0 18 6 U.S. : 15.7 0.2 -0.3 0.4 11 13 Foreign : 6.9 3.1 -13.8 4.0 18 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-431-34 Reliability of February Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.1 3.0 -4.8 15.3 16 8 U.S. : 0.9 0.6 -1.6 1.8 10 10 Foreign : 3.8 2.9 -5.2 14.8 18 6 Exports : World : 4.8 2.0 -7.0 12.0 15 9 U.S. : 5.6 1.2 -2.9 3.7 14 10 Foreign : 14.3 2.0 -5.9 11.6 12 12 Domestic use : World : 2.1 2.7 -5.4 10.9 14 10 U.S. : 2.5 1.0 -3.0 2.4 17 7 Foreign : 2.4 2.2 -4.2 12.5 15 9 Ending stocks : World : 12.2 2.9 -6.8 19.3 15 9 U.S. : 22.4 1.7 -3.4 5.0 7 17 Foreign : 15.2 2.6 -6.7 14.2 16 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 1.8 1.6 -5.4 2.8 18 6 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.3 9 14 Foreign : 2.2 1.6 -5.7 2.7 18 6 Exports : World : 3.3 0.8 -2.5 0.9 14 10 U.S. : 7.0 0.5 -1.4 1.0 12 11 Foreign : 4.1 0.7 -3.5 1.0 14 10 Mill use : World : 1.8 1.5 -6.0 1.3 14 10 U.S. : 3.8 0.3 -0.9 0.8 18 5 Foreign : 1.9 1.4 -5.5 1.6 15 9 Ending stocks : World : 7.8 2.7 -6.0 7.9 13 10 U.S. : 13.6 0.7 -1.5 2.1 7 17 Foreign : 8.4 2.7 -6.2 7.4 14 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2004/05 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 24 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-431-35 Reliability of United States February Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.0 2 -8 38 2 1 Exports : 7.8 133 -379 384 10 14 Domestic use : 2.4 147 -474 345 12 12 Ending stocks : 10.1 190 -635 838 16 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.0 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 12.9 31 -90 97 14 9 Domestic use : 8.8 38 -178 100 11 13 Ending stocks : 30.0 32 -69 148 10 14 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 11 4 Exports : 13.6 8 -35 23 9 13 Domestic use : 5.3 20 -38 70 11 12 Ending stocks : 9.2 15 -52 24 16 7 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 4 3 Exports : 27.5 1 -1 3 4 5 Domestic use : 2.9 11 -26 36 12 12 Ending stocks : 10.4 13 -47 21 12 12 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.3 742 -2328 765 18 6 Exports : 7.6 521 -1900 941 17 7 Domestic use : 2.0 487 -1256 866 16 8 Ending stocks : 30.8 75 -214 208 10 13 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.3 351 -1173 365 17 7 Exports : 15.3 231 -700 814 12 12 Domestic use : 1.9 245 -735 300 17 6 Ending stocks : 15.9 245 -692 415 13 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.6 653 -827 1613 16 6 Pork : 2.7 459 -1240 1717 15 7 Broilers : 1.5 336 -729 484 15 7 Turkeys : 2.0 91 -206 161 12 10 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.2 76 -127 169 14 8 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 1.9 -4.9 5.7 11 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 33 and 34 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2004/05 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 24 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2004 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ------------- End of File ---------------------